“If you are what you say you are…”

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Dodgers Now: Bill Shaikin reveals that the Dodgers are no longer exclusively talking with Fox, as they’ve met with Time Warner now.

The Dodgers and Time Warner Cable have met to discuss a potential deal for the team’s television rights, according to two people familiar with the talks but not authorized to comment on them.

The Dodgers are considering at least three options for their next television home: the Prime Ticket cable channel owned by Fox Sports, the SportsNet cable channel owned by TWC or a new channel owned by the team.

Not sure whether this is a positive or a negative in terms of potential television money, but I figure competition rarely generates a lower return.

Baseball Prospectus: Maury Brown had an interview with Stan Kasten at the Winter Meetings.

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Los Angeles Times: Bill Shaikin warns about the perils of long-term big-money contracts.

But…

They do take players to 2017, and beyond. If the Dodgers win in 2013, well, who cares?

…that’s always the rub. If they win, even if the players start to implode in the context of their contracts, it’s justifiable. Flags fly forever, after all.

But they have to win.

FanGraphs: Jeff Sullivan reminds us that even if the Dodgers literally had an unlimited payroll and bought every top player they could on the free agent market, it still wouldn’t have resulted in a division winner in 2012.

Smarts still matter. The limit though becomes roster spots.

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FanGraphs: Dave Cameron questions why people assume prospects are always unknown quantities but are fine assuming that veterans always provide consistent results.

Wil Myers is a risk, but so is James Shields. So is Albert Pujols. So is Justin Verlander. So is everyone.

When we start using labels like “prospect” or “proven veteran” to describe players, we lose that reality. Myers and Shields both have the chance to be good, bad, or anything in between. Let’s not let the terms we use to describe player types obscure that fact. The Royals didn’t trade a lottery ticket for a paycheck; they traded a few lottery tickets for a scratch-off card. They probably did reduce their overall performance risk for 2013, but it didn’t go to zero. Let’s not pretend that we know so much about projecting the future of Major League players that we create an artificial divide where one does not exist.

Prospects come with uncertainty, but so do Major League players. Everyone is a risk. You weigh that risk against the potential rewards, and you figure out which trade-offs are worth making. Once you cross over into treating some players as non-risks, though, you’ve stopped evaluating players properly. And then you make trades like the one the Royals just made.

This is precisely how I’ve thought since I started blogging. Everybody has a percentage of relative success, and things can always go against that, but what you want to try and do is play the odds as best you can and hopefully the cards go your way.

Credit: The LFP

The Zack Greinke saga is the story of the Winter Meetings, not only because he’s the top free agent out there, but also because he’s holding up the deals of other free agents, as they’re all waiting on him.

Whatever he decides, it figures to be at least borderline historical, as Jon Heyman notes.

Strong belief by people close to situation is greinke can beat cc sabathia $161M record deal if desires. #dodgers #rangers

But who’s in the lead now? Jayson Stark says the talk revolves around the Rangers…

The big buzz this morning at the winter meetings is: Watch out for Texas on Zack Greinke.

…and Joel Sherman gives a potential reason why Greinke might be leaning that way.

Told Greinke’s wife is former Dall #Cowboys cheerleader and could influence desire get back to Tex. score1 for #Rangers

The Nationals are out of the sweepstakes thanks to their Dan Haren acquisition, and the Angels are assumed to be out of it as well due to price concerns, according to Danny Knobler.

With Greinke bidding heading to $160 million and perhaps beyond, one Angels person said: “That’s going to blow us out of the water.”

Additionally, they just added Joe Blanton to their rotation.

Ken Gurnick reports that Greinke’s personal fingerprints appear to be all over the negotiations.

The speculation is that Greinke, and not Close, is orchestrating the leisurely pace of negotiations, which has log-jammed the free-agent market for pitchers. The 29-year-old Greinke could wind up with a contract bigger than CC Sabathia’s record for a pitcher of seven years and $161 million.

Reading between the lines a little, this could mean that the money is close enough where it boils down to personal matters, which could lead him to stray away from the Dodgers and the most money. It could also be the reason Josh Hamilton to the Mariners talks have picked up, as his agent might sense the Rangers will be out of the market for him.

Hopefully not, but the reports yesterday certainly weren’t as optimistic for the team as the day before.

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Those Dee Gordon rumors from yesterday? Well apparently they have some legs, and Jon Paul Morosi/Ken Rosenthal report that the Indians are in.

I looked at the Mariners roster yesterday to find a potential fit in a trade, but for the Indians I don’t see a clear-cut fit for the Dodgers current roster. I’m hoping it doesn’t involve Ubaldo Jimenez.

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As for Hyun Jin Ryu, yesterday was just a continuation of the day before.

Nor would Colletti say if he felt he was closer to a deal for Korean free-agent pitcher Ryu Hyun-jin.

“I just feel closer to Sunday,” Colletti said, because at 2 p.m. PT Sunday the Dodgers must either have a deal with Ryu or he returns to Korea.

Oddly enough, I think Jim Bowden‘s thoughts most accurately reflects reality.

Dodgers not worried about negotiations w Ryu… they know Boras style & will wait until Sunday Deadline to bear down with him & get it done

— JIM BOWDEN (@JimBowdenESPNxm) December 6, 2012

Though I would be lying if I said I didn’t cringe when Scott Boras started comparing him and his impending contract to Daisuke Matsuzaka.

“We have standards that all of us agree the guy is a No. 3 starter in the Major Leagues,” Boras said Wednesday. “And past practices, negotiations that we’ve done for [Daisuke] Matsuzaka, at that time Matsuzaka got paid [$52 million, six years] like he was a No. 3 pitcher in the big leagues. We think very highly of Ryu.

Why?

1) Expecting that contract is ridiculous to me.

2) Why would he ever want to associate an Asian pitcher’s potential career with that of Daisuke Matsuzaka?

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The Dodgers do need a lefty reliever in the pen for next year, and with Randy Choate now off the board, Mike Petriello brings up Matt Thornton‘s name.

With LH RP dropping off the board, #Dodgers will probably need to get one via trade. One rumored possibility: Matt Thornton of Chicago.

Would have loved this idea three or four years ago, but he’s now on a three-year negative trend, is going to be 36, and his stuff diminishing is becoming an annual event.

Still a better option than signing Choate for three years, but not exactly a guy you want to give up meaningful assets to acquire.

The Dodgers made an offer to Hyun Jin Ryu, but it was rejected by Scott Boras, according to Ned Colletti.

The Dodgers made a long-term offer to Korean pitcher Ryu Hyun-jin on Tuesday, but it was rejected by agent Scott Boras.

“Predictably, it fell a tad short,” said general manager Ned Colletti.

The Dodgers have until Sunday to sign Ryu or they lose exclusive negotiating rights and their $25.7 million posting fee is refunded.

“We’re debating our next step,” said Colletti. “I don’t believe we’re close right now.”

As I said yesterday, I still think this is all posturing by both sides to get the best deal possible.

For his part, Boras later clarified the situation to Dylan Hernandez.

[Updated at 5:35 p.m.: Ryu's agent, Scott Boras, said he presented the Dodgers with a counteroffer. "We exchanged offers, and negotiations continue," Boras said.]

Boras, said his client should be compensated like a major league No. 3 starter. So, presumably, he’s looking for something in the $50-million range. [Updated at 9:45 p.m.: This estimate was high, according to a person familiar with the discussions.]

The reasons for the Dodgers wanting to wait should be obvious, because if they sign Zack Greinke and trade for James Shields or something of the sort, then their leverage in negotiations with Ryu becomes extremely one-sided.

For now? Just have to wait it out.

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Speaking of Greinke, the Dodgers and Rangers are apparently in a bidding war of sorts, according to Jon Heyman.

The Dodgers have been viewed as a fairly clear favorite for Greinke, but Texas is showing signs of determination, according to major-league sources.

The Dodgers are seen as having an almost unlimited payroll, but people familiar with the happenings now suggest the derby could go either way. Not many teams could hope to go dollar-for-dollar against the Dodgers, but the Rangers are trying to do just that.

The bidding is said by major-league officials to be “quite high” now, with two people pegging the dollar amount at about $160 million. And that’s with the deal not done yet. There seems an extreme likelhood now that Greinke will not only set a record for righthanded pitcher but for any pitcher, which is currently held by CC Sabathia, who signed for $161 million and seven years with the Yankees.

Some have suggested they could even see the Greinke deal reaching toward the $175-million mark.

This situation, however, could be severely impacted by the Rangers negotiations with Josh Hamilton, according to Danny Knobler, as they probably won’t sign both.

But one scenario they don’t see happening, according to sources, is a double free-agent signing of both Greinke and Hamilton.

And they certainly seem on pace to sign one or the other, according to Ken Rosenthal.

For his part, Jon Paul Morosi is of the belief that the Dodgers are the clear favorite, while Bill Shaikin adds that this drama may not be over by the time the Winter Meetings conclude.

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Connected to Greinke in a way, the Dodgers are apparently shopping Chris Capuano and Aaron Harang to whoever.

One exec says “Dodgers shopping Capuano and Harang around lobby. Greinke and Rhu, or Greinke and Sanchez or Dempster?”

#Dodgers becoming aggressive in shopping Harang and Capuano, source says. Could be a sign of confidence in landing Zack Greinke. @MLBONFOX

I doubt either of them would be hard to deal at any point in the off-season. Both are on short-term deals, the Dodgers could eat money if necessary, and the return demands probably won’t be significant.

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COMEDY BREAK

The Dodgers are running around shopping Juan Uribe!

One of the agendas the Dodgers are pushing aggressively in the lobby is to find a trade partner to take utility infielder Juan Uribe. Needless to say, the Dodgers are garnering little interest unless they’re willing to pay his entire contract. Uribe, who has batted .199 the past two seasons combined, is entering the final year of a three-year, $21 million contract.

What a disaster.

Asked an MLB official if #Dodgers might be able to interest #Yankees in Juan Uribe with A-Rod injured. The guy chuckled.

— Bill Shaikin (@BillShaikin) December 4, 2012

It’s become a punchline, as it should, really.

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Dee Gordon appears to be a popular target for teams, including the Mariners.

The Dodgers are fielding tons of inquiries on shortstop Dee Gordon, tweets Scott Miller of CBS Sports, though they’re not looking to deal him. The Mariners are among the teams hitting the Dodgers hard on Gordon, tweets Miller.

I’ve given my thoughts on Dee previously, though I’m not sure what the Mariners have that the Dodgers want.

No, it’s not Felix Hernandez. Stop.

I’m thinking more along the lines of Kyle Seager, Corey Seager‘s older brother. The Mariners have Alex Liddi and Vinnie Catricala.

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Perhaps the R.A. Dickey rumors have some legs after all?

Hearing Dodgers thinking big, have strong interest in Dickey even if they sign Grienke. But they don’t have good young OF to trade.

— John Harper (@NYDNHarper) December 4, 2012

Source says Mets could get speedy SS Dee Gordon and top pitching prospect Zach Lee from Dodgers for Dickey. But that doesn’t help OF.

— John Harper (@NYDNHarper) December 4, 2012

That would be … a lot for a rental.

Still not sure I buy the interest as legit either. Not yet, at least.

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In interest of filling out their bench, the Dodgers are apparently interested in trading for Skip Schumaker, according to Danny Knobler.

He plays second, left field, center field, and right field, so there’s versatility there, but he’s a terrible defender at second, a bad one in center, and just solid-average in the corners. Over the last three seasons, since he turned 30, he’s had an OPS+ of 88.

Not so thrilled, really.

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Oh, and Colletti shot down those rumors from yesterday about them seeking starters at SS/3B. But there’s no reason to think he’s being truthful either.

The Dodgers will offer Zack Greinke the most money to sign, according to Jon Heyman, because they have no concept of a budget.

The Dodgers have an interesting strategy that’s been employed only rarely: Sign the best, no matter the cost.

“They are like theSteinrenner Yankees of the ’70s,” one competing GM said.

Rival executives are beginning to wonder of there’s any chance to compete with the Dodgers in the Zack Greinke sweepstakes. Greinke is said by friends to be an unusual free agent who values comfort and winning right up there with money, so some teams will hang in there with a bit of hope.

But it seems pretty clear who is going to offer Greinke the biggest deal at this point. The Dodgers seem determined to sign him, no matter the cost. As Dodgers president Stan Kasten said, “We are the opposite of the mystery team.”

Asked about their budget, one Dodgers person responded on Monday, “What budget?”

Some wonder whether it might be wise to sign up Clayton Kershaw first, thus in effect capping Greinke’s final price. But one rival exec said, he believes the Dodgers “just don’t care” how much things cost.

Greinke is a unique free agent in the sense that it’s believable that he could make his decision based on comfort over sheer money. Though if the combination of staying in Los Angeles and an offer with the most money comes across the table, I find it hard to believe he’ll turn that down.

This goes counter to what Joel Sherman reports though, as he says the Rangers have every intention of spending right along side the Dodgers on Greinke.

Heard #Rangers right there with #Dodgers in willingness to spend on Greinke, #Nationals still talking #Angels all but fallen out at these $$

— Joel Sherman (@Joelsherman1) December 3, 2012

Could make things interesting since they also have television money to spend.

The sleeper in all of this is still the Nationals, who I think have a lot more money than people would expect.

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Ned Colletti has said that if things continue the way they are, Hyun Jin Ryu is unlikely to be signed.

#Dodgers GM Ned Colletti said talks with Ryu Hyun-jin are moving slowly.

— Dylan Hernandez (@dylanohernandez) December 3, 2012

Colletti: At this pace, a deal with Ryu won’t get done.

— Dylan Hernandez (@dylanohernandez) December 3, 2012

In response to this, Scott Boras trolled back, saying Ryu could end up in Japan.

South Korean left-hander Ryu Hyun-jin could pitch in Japan next season if he doesn’t sign with the Dodgers, his agent said Tuesday.

“Japan is a very viable option for him,” said Scott Boras, who disputed the notion that his client doesn’t have any leverage in his negotiations with the Dodgers.

Never a dull moment with Boras, man.

The deadline is 5 PM on Sunday, so there’s still quite a bit of time, and we knew from before that the Dodgers probably preferred to wait until after the Winter Meetings were over to finalize a deal with him. That makes sense, especially in light of news that they’re involved on a whole mess of players at the moment.

At the end of the day though, I have a difficult time believing that a deal with Ryu won’t get done, especially given the team’s alleged lack of financial restrictions.

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The Dodgers are talking with a whole bunch of teams in regards to trades, according to Colletti.

#Dodgers are talking to 10-12 teams about potential trades, GM Ned Colletti said.

— Dylan Hernandez (@dylanohernandez) December 4, 2012

Ken Gurnick says this includes the Mets and R.A. Dickey (along with at least seven other teams), while Molly Knight adds that the Rays and James Shields are involved. Jon Heyman adds that the Rays are increasingly likely to deal a starter and that the suitors include the Dodgers, Rangers, and Nationals.

I’m not sure how legit that Dickey interest is, but I have been hearing about the Dodgers being in on Shields a lot, so it seems that would be their primary target. Wouldn’t be surprised at all to see that rumor escalate today.

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As for the fourth outfielder issue, Ken Gurnick has mentioned that Nate Schierholtz is a target.

One non-tendered player the Dodgers have some interest in is outfielder Nate Schierholtz, cut loose last week by the Phillies, who acquired him from the Giants in the Hunter Pence trade.

Schierholtz doesn’t play center, is left-handed, and had a .698 OPS last year.

I know he has hit righties well over the last two years, but if you look at the larger sample size of his career, there’s like a 30 point OPS difference in his platoon split, which hardly makes him a platoon weapon.

I would hope they can do better.

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Rafael Ynoa is generating interest in regards to the Rule 5 Draft, which doesn’t surprise me.

Hearing some Rule 5 buzz on #Dodgers infielder Rafael Ynoa.

— Jon Morosi (@jonmorosi) December 3, 2012

I would give him a ceiling of a utility player, but I think there’s a chance he could stick all year, so why wouldn’t a team with 40-man roster space give him a shot now? Coming off his red-hot AFL, there’s probably no better time.

The Dodgers promoted a number of front office personnel, most notably future GMs (of the Dodgers, I hope) Logan White and De Jon Watson. White will now serve as Vice President Of Scouting, while Watson takes on the role of Vice President Of Player Development.

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Via Eric Stephen, Alfredo Silverio and Ozzie Martinez have signed minor-league contracts and received invites to Spring Training.

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Bill Shaikin reports, per Ned Colletti, that Yasiel Puig will most likely begin the 2013 campaign with AA Chattanooga.

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And now we wait for the moves of the Winter Meetings.

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Greg Zakwin is the founder of the site Plaschke Thy Sweater Is Argyle. Follow him on Twitter @ArgyledPlaschke.

Shohei Otani, who once declared definitively that he was headed to America, is having second thoughts about that decision after meeting with the Nippon Ham Fighters, which was the thing I feared the most at the time of the announcement.

Shohei Otani, 18, who had vowed to sign in MLB, might now lean to staying in Japan, per Japanese media. #Dodgers interested, still fluid.

— Bill Shaikin (@BillShaikin) December 3, 2012

Source: #Dodgers would be “shocked” if Otani declares for MLB and does not sign with them — but skeptical that he will declare for MLB.

— Bill Shaikin (@BillShaikin) December 3, 2012

As far as specifics go, Sponichi Annex reports that Otani was probably offered the max salary and the number 11, which holds significance because it was worn by Yu Darvish.

Additionally, Sanspo quotes a source saying that the Nippon Ham Fighters are indeed no longer an impossible destination for Otani, and that he might even be leaning that way now.

Japanese pitching prospect Shohei Otani wants to decide this week whether to remain in Japan or come to the U.S. bit.ly/XhMuZb

— Dylan Hernandez (@dylanohernandez) December 3, 2012

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The rumors about the Dodgers actively shopping Dee Gordon only seem to be growing with time.

The Dodgers are shopping Dee Gordon in trades, according to Peter Gammons of the MLB Network. The 24-year-old Gordon figures to draw significant interest given the dearth of shortstops available via free agency.

As I said earlier, it’ll be interesting to see how exactly teams perceive him and what his value is.

Personally, I couldn’t accept him as the centerpiece in any significant deal, especially for somebody like, say, James Shields.

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The Rays have signed former Dodger first baseman James Loney to a one-year deal.

Free agent first baseman James Loney has agreed to a one-year, $2 million contract with the Tampa Bay Rays pending a physical exam, said a baseball source.

The deal will pay Loney an additional $1 million if he reaches specified performance bonuses, the source said.

I guess that’s actually not a terrible deal. I mean, expectations are basically zilch at that point.

As with most clubs, the Winter Meetings have been busy for the Dodgers, but while other teams are pursuing impact players, the Dodgers are busy trying to identify the clean garbage at the massive dump.

Ned Colletti revealed that he is looking to upgrade through trade with a position player and would be willing to listen on a reliever.

Dodgers general manager Ned Colletti said he met with a handful of clubs at the Winter Meetings on Tuesday looking for “an upgrade, a position player,” but that he would listen if a club offered a late-inning reliever.

Upgrading a position player makes sense, but given the payroll limitations, I doubt it’s anything good.

As far as listening on a late inning reliever, why? That’s honestly one area where the Dodgers seem to have an endless supply of solid arms and the price of relievers this off-season is insane.

In the first case, he still wants another bat. He wouldn’t say at which position, but it would most likely have to be an outfielder or first baseman. James Loney would seem to be a logical offering in return as he enters his final season before free agency and Colletti often has mentioned the capability of Juan Rivera, Jerry Sands and Adam Kennedy to play first base.

From all indications, it would not be a catcher (where the Dodgers will start A.J. Ellis with Matt Treanor the backup) and he’s seemingly committed at the other five positions with center fielder Matt Kemp, right fielder Andre Ethier, third baseman Juan Uribe, second baseman Mark Ellis and shortstop Dee Gordon.

Without offering a name, he said one player he is targeting has been a starter at his position and would be “payroll neutral,” indicating that either the player he would send would be of similar salary or the other club would pick up part of the incoming salary. Colletti said he didn’t expect a deal while at the Meetings, which end Thursday.

As people like Eric Stephen and Mike Petriello have been discussing on Twitter, it certainly would seem like this might involve a Delmon Young, Carlos Lee, or Alfonso Soriano type. Additionally, since the trade might be payroll neutral, some of the speculated names leaving were James Loney and Chad Billingsley.

Yikes. Let’s hope not.

As for the reliever, Colletti was expected to meet Tuesday night with the agent for Mike MacDougal, who bounced back with a fine season while under the radar after being picked off the scrap heap with a Minor League contract. Colletti said he has had two previous conversations with the agent, but “it might be time to get more serious about it.”

No. Just no.

Colletti did what he had to do last season and he got solid value for Mike MacDougal at a relatively cheap cost. Re-signing him for another year is just pressing your luck and hoping you don’t hit a whammy.

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As far as Josh Bard goes, there are conflicting reports.

Jon Heyman of Sports Illustrated says it’s a done deal for 1 year and $750k, while Dylan Hernandez of the Los Angeles Times said a minor league deal was close but then clarified that Bard is not the only catcher the Dodgers are talking to.

I’ll easily take Dylan Hernandez’s report over Jon Heyman’s, so I’ll wait this deal out. However, if it goes through, I become more and more confused as to the direction of the team.

Is the goal of this league to stockpile as many replacement level players as possible or something? I don’t get it.