Javy Guerra has been optioned to AAA after a rough spring in which he dealt with injury and had been limited to just a couple of appearances. The Dodgers have a deep pen and, with Guerra’s injuries and struggles, he was going to have to excel during Spring Training to secure a spot on the Opening Day roster.

Tony Gwynn Jr. was also assigned to AAA Albuquerque. Gwynn was one of the few guys with the ability to backup Matt Kemp and previous big-league experience doing so, but the move reinforces just how little Tony can swing the lumber and the fact that the Dodgers clearly have faith that Carl Crawford will be healthy enough to serve as the number two center fielder.

Shawn Tolleson and Justin Sellers were optioned to AAA, while Jesus Flores was reassigned to minor-league camp. Additionally, Chris Withrow was optioned to minor-league camp along with Juan Abreu and Wilkin Castillo.

—–

The team released three players in Dallas McPherson, Ramon Castro, and Nick Evans.

—–

On the flip side of things, the team has signed Dashenko Ricardo of Curacao to a contract after Dashenko participated in the World Baseball Classic.

Along with Ricardo came the signings of Dominican prospects Dennis Santana and Carlos Aquino – both shortstops – and lefty Cesar Romero.

—–

Tim Federowicz has probably locked up the job of backing up A.J. Ellis with the removal of Jesus Flores from major-league camp.

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Greg Zakwin is the founder of the site Plaschke Thy Sweater Is Argyle. Follow him on Twitter @ArgyledPlaschke.

Baseball fans love to talk about clutch plays and clutch players, and Dodgers fans are no exception, but like with a pitcher’s best and worst pitches, there tends to be a lack of evidence presented. As such, I decided to find some basis for clutch plays and clutch players, courtesy of the WPA and Clutch statistics.

WPA

Most sabermetric statistics are context neutral — they do not consider the situation of a particular event or how some plays are more crucial to a win than others. While wOBA rates all home runs as equal, we know intuitively that a home run in the third inning of a blowout is less important to that win than a home run in the bottom of the ninth inning of a close game. Win Probability Added (WPA) captures this difference by measuring how individual players affect their team’s win expectancy on a per-play basis.

Clutch

In the words of David Appelman, this calculation measures, “…how much better or worse a player does in high leverage situations than he would have done in a context neutral environment.” It also compares a player against himself, so a player who hits .300 in high leverage situations when he’s an overall .300 hitter is not considered clutch.

So that’s the foundation for this post, and since that’s now been established, let’s get on with it, shall we?

As always, visuals have been provided because, let’s be honest, everything is better with visuals.

—–

I feel like it’s necessary to point out that none of this is predictive of the future or telling of the past. It’s a post about stuff that happened in 2012. That’s all.

In other words, please don’t link back to this while saying, “LOOK! THIS DUDE IS SUCH A CHOKER, BRO!” No.

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Top Five David Carradine Choke Jobs Of 2012

1. Andre Ethier – -39.3%

Horrifying.

With the bases loaded and one down in the bottom of the eighth, and the Dodgers trailing the rival Giants 2-1, Andre Ethier comes up and … yeah.

…

2. Jerry Hairston Jr. – -34.1%

Nobody out in the bottom of the ninth and trailing by a run, Jerry Hairston Jr. decides it’s a sweet time to ground into a double play while there’s runners on first and second, thus killing a massive opportunity.

3. Adam Kennedy – -33.6%

Second and third and one out in the bottom of the ninth and trailing by one run, Adam Kennedy did what he did best in 2012: rolling over and chopping a ball to the right side.

Extra scorn for almost killing Matt Kemp.

4. Tony Gwynn Jr. – -29.1%

Just looking.

Down by a run in the bottom of the ninth with runners on second and third, Tony Gwynn Jr. needed to put the ball in play and give himself a chance. Instead, he did his best impersonation of a statue.

5. Mark Ellis – -25.7%

Bottom of the tenth and trailing by a run, the Dodgers put men on first and third with one out, but Mark Ellis … did that.

Bonus anger for doing it against Jonathan Papelbon.

—–

Commentary? So much fail.

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Top Five Chokeiest Dodgers Of 2012 – Field Player Division

1. A.J. Ellis – -1.62
2. Adam Kennedy – -1.14
3. Andre Ethier – -1.01
4. Jerry Hairston Jr. – -0.95
5. Shane Victorino – -0.37

Carl Crawford took live batting practice against an actual pitcher for the first time since elbow surgery last August. However, yesterday he reported forearm soreness and was held out of batting practice and drills.

Crawford, rehabbing from Tommy John surgery on his left elbow last Aug. 23, took batting practice against live pitchers on Monday, but hasn’t been able to do so in the last two days. On Thursday morning when hitting off the tee in the batting cage, Crawford felt tightness in his forearm, and was shut down.

I wouldn’t overreact to it, but forearm stiffness is usually indicative of elbow ligament problems, which does seem normal since he’s rehabbing from Tommy John surgery, but it’s probably an indication that he’s moving a bit too quickly.

Update

Mattingly: @carlcrawford_ will not hit or throw for seven days due to nerve irritation in his elbow.

— Los Angeles Dodgers (@Dodgers) March 1, 2013

Indeed, the problem was elbow related and it seems it was a more serious setback than they initially let on.

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Chad Billingsley and his balky right elbow made it through his first start of Spring Training without any complications.

“After the first couple of throws I’m like, ‘Yeah this is fun’,” Billingsley said.

“Normally when you sit for a long half-inning, your arm gets tight and your body starts tightening up. But I went out there and had no problem getting loose or anything, so that’s great.”

“As soon as I left (Arizona) in October, I felt I was ready to go,” he said.

The news is, of course, positive, but whether they want to admit it or not, his condition will be speculated on all year long unless he never falters in terms of both performance and health.

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Matt Kemp continues rehabbing and could see live game action sooner than later.

No official date has been set for Kemp’s Spring Training debut, but he’s taking batting practice without issue.

Kemp, who underwent right shoulder surgery in October, hit in the cages Wednesday morning and felt good enough to take on-field batting practice — off of Mattingly — later in the workout. Mattingly said Kemp was fine and his extension, even on full swings and misses, caused no pain.

Seems like he’ll be ready to go once the season starts.

—–

Tony Gwynn Jr. was sidelined with a sore left groin muscle and had to miss a few days of workouts. He later said he expects to be back today, which is a positive since he’s battling desperately for a roster spot.

Gwynn is the only potential bench player with significant center field experience in the majors, so this setback can only hurt him and his chances, especially if it lingers at all like his 2012 injury did.

—–

Luis Cruz missed a couple days of Spring Training action with flu-like symptoms.

Cruz was in urgent care most of Tuesday, where he received IV treatment. He has returned to the lineup and the issue isn’t a concern, unless he actually has the plague or something ridiculous.

Nothing to see here.

—–

Ted Lilly made his Spring Training debut Thursday after an off-season of recovery from shoulder surgery.

Lilly reported no setbacks as he worked his way back into shape.

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Matt Guerrier is healthy and ready to contribute to the pen following an injury-plagued 2012.

He opted to not have elbow surgery in the off-season, a la Billingsley, and instead received plasma-rich injections.

Guerrier’s curveball was especially sharp, a sure sign that, like Chad Billingsley, Guerrier has recovered from his injury because of platelet-rich plasma injections to avoid surgery.

“Curveballs hurt me last year when I threw them,” Guerrier said. “Today, it feels completely normal.”

“I was fairly optimistic after that,” he said. “Then once I started to throw in the offseason it felt completely different.”

Guerrier’s health may help us avoid Kevin Gregg, but Matt has never been anything more than a meh reliever, with just one season of an FIP below 3.9, and a K/9 mark that has never reached 7. The Dodgers don’t need to rely upon Guerrier to have a successful pen, but any avoidance of Gregg and the likes is a win, let’s be honest.

—–

Justin Sellers missed workouts because of an ingrown toenail, which he got removed, but he expects to be back today.

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Greg Zakwin is the founder of the site Plaschke Thy Sweater Is Argyle. Follow him on Twitter @ArgyledPlaschke.

The Dodgers, as a club, have a ton of injuries or guys rehabbing, so I expect this feature to be busy all season.

Two of the most important injury cases will start off today, as we get timeline updates on Matt Kemp and Carl Crawford.

Manager Don Mattingly said March 1 is a very rough target date for Kemp to get into games coming off left shoulder surgery. Crawford will likely be later than that as he returns from Tommy John elbow reconstruction.

“I don’t go definitely March 1 with Matt, because it might not be until March 5 or March 7 when he’s ready to play. That doesn’t mean anything’s wrong.”

Mattingly said both are likely to break in as designated hitters at first.

“Both guys I’ll DH a little early on,” Mattingly said on Friday. “Carl more likely [than Kemp]. He won’t get into games until the medical tests [clear their participation]. I don’t want him in a game and reacting and doing something like spinning to make a throw that we don’t want him doing.”

Kemp is doing all baseball activities, while Crawford is still on a conservative throwing program to rebuild arm strength with the hope that he will be ready by Opening Day.

Crawford is able to hit and participate in most workouts, but he is limited in throwing drills and hasn’t yet thrown beyond 90 feet.

Kemp will be delayed a bit, so he’s not on a completely normal schedule, but he sounds healthy aside from that and should be ready to start the season.

Crawford? Not so much. He seems intent on making an Opening Day appearance, but there’s no logic in rushing him back, especially given that he’s had the past two years submarined by injuries, and exposing him to injury risk by playing him at like 75% seems incredibly stupid.

——

Elian Herrera, who got buzzed in the helmet yesterday, appears to be fine.

Dodgers utility man Elian Herrera narrowly escaped injury Sunday when White Sox pitcher Jake Petricka grazed his helmet with a fastball.

“If I didn’t move, maybe I die right now,” said Herrera. “It was coming right at my face. Not good.”

Herrera remained in the game until the Dodgers’ half of the inning ended, then was removed for precautionary purposes, but said he was fine.

Considering that he’s one of the few options the Dodgers have for the backup center fielder spot, his health may end up being important the club.

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Tony Gwynn Jr. apparently tried to play through a sports hernia in 2012 but is healthy now.

Gwynn, 30, played with an injury that was never discussed by him or the club. He believes he suffered a sports hernia lifting weights after the 2011 season, but he never had an MRI to diagnose it.

“I didn’t want to know,” he said Friday. “I wasn’t having surgery no matter what I had.”

He was hurting last Spring Training, hurting when Matt Kemp went down with that hamstring injury in early May and the relapse in late May. Needing to fill in for Kemp on almost an everyday basis for several months, Gwynn’s already injured body finally broke down.

You hear this a ton, but it rarely ever works out the way players intend. I totally understand the motivation to play through major injury, but in the end, they usually end up performing terribly and aggravating the injury, which hurts both the team and their career.

—–

Jerry Hairston Jr. is recovering from hip labrum surgery.

There was some measure of satisfaction for Jerry Hairston on Saturday just being in the starting lineup for the Dodgers’ exhibition opener.

Five months ago, bedridden after hip surgery, he doubted it was possible.

“It wasn’t easy,” said Hairston. “I worked really hard to get back. But for the first three months, I didn’t know if I’d be able to play at this level now.”

Unlike other Dodgers coming off surgery, it doesn’t appear as if the injury will limit him going forward.

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As mentioned in the other feature, Eliezer Alfonzo, who signed a minor-league deal in the off-season with an invitation to Spring Training, has been felled by dengue fever and was replaced in major-league camp by Matt Wallach. Eliezer will report to the minor-league portion of Camelback Ranch once healthy enough to do so.

Paco Rodriguez, Alfredo Amezaga, and Peter Moylan, three Dodgers with shots at making the Opening Day roster, have withdrawn from the World Baseball Classic to focus on making the club.

With Scott Elbert rehabbing, Paco in particular is competing for the spot of left-handed reliever, though J.P. Howell would appear to be the front-runner there. Moylan is in the running for the bullpen as well, no matter how deep it is, simply due to the fact that he’s a veteran (see: Jamey Wright). Amezaga would appear to be a long-shot to make the outfield reserves on a team with such a high payroll, but the Dodgers don’t actually have a lot of options there, especially those who can play center field. Barring a trade, it basically boils down to him, Tony Gwynn Jr., Elian Herrera, and Jeremy Moore. In other words, hopefully there’s a trade.

Paco was slated to compete for Spain, Amezaga for Mexico, and Moylan for Australia, but at the risk of missing most of Spring Training, all three Dodgers on the roster bubble decided against participating. That leaves five Dodgers who are still in the WBC in Hanley Ramirez (Dominican Republic), Adrian Gonzalez (Mexico), Luis Cruz (Mexico), Nick Punto (Italy), and Ronald Belisario (Venezuela), none of whom figure to be in danger of losing spots.

The Dodgers have officially converted former starting pitcher Chris Withrow to relief and former third baseman Pedro Baez to pitching.

FINALLY

Personally, I’ve seen both Withrow and Baez in those roles for a couple years now (maybe Baez for longer given his swing), and I think most evaluators began to agree within the last year, so it’s good to see the Dodgers follow suit.

Withrow, the Dodgers’ No. 1 pick in 2007, had early bouts with the yips and more recently chronic back problems. Withrow responded to a bullpen move late last year, and Honeycutt said it’s now permanent, hoping the role change can work Eric Gagne-like wonders for Withrow, whose electric arm is undisputed.

Maybe management recalls a hard-throwing second-rounder that struggled as a starter and was never tried as a reliever. Instead, the Dodgers let Joel Hanrahan leave as a free agent and he went on to be an All-Star closer. “Chris wanted the change,” Honeycutt said. “He likes attacking more. He reminds me a little of Gagne, somebody who might throw three or four innings as a starter but have one [bad] inning, and you can eliminate that if you’re only asking one inning of relief from him. Maybe one- or two-inning stints will be easier on his back. He’s got the arm.”

Withrow’s bouts with command and a lack of development of a solid third pitch would have led down this road eventually, so getting ahead of the curve here and giving him a chance to be a dominant back-end reliever is a positive.

Baez, a .247 hitter in six Minor League seasons, is starting over as a hard-throwing reliever a la Jansen, who came out from behind the plate to emerge as a bullpen strikeout king.

“They put him on the mound in instructional league and that fastball is really strong,” Honeycutt said of Baez, who turns 25 next month. “You talk about Kenley when you see the ball come out of his hand. He hasn’t been overwhelmed by thinking too much about pitching. He just sees the glove and throws it and that’s kind of refreshing.”

Universally, scouting reports have put Baez’s arm as plus or plus-plus, with some clocking him consistently in the low-90s across the diamond. As such, his arm strength shouldn’t be a surprise, and though he’s already 25, he now has the same chance Kenley Jansen did, which is better than languishing in A-ball as a hitter who struggled to hit.

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The Dodgers have 17 non-roster invitees coming to major-league camp in 2013.

The ones of note I would say are Tony Gwynn Jr., Alfredo Amezaga, and Ramon Castro, ordered in likelihood that they actually make the roster. The rest of them seem to fill positions that the Dodgers already have a backlog of, especially the relievers.

The 2013 projection for the Dodgers from Dan Szymborski‘s ZiPS system was released last week, and given that it’s probably my favorite forecasting tool, it’s worth a look to see how the team fared.

Forecasting is not a complete science, obviously, and I’ll address some of the potential pitfalls as we go along, but it’s better to use objective tools like these than the hopes/dreams of fans or the bitterness/wishes of haters.

To start us off, how does the team fare, generally speaking? A solid playoff contender, for sure, but a super team? Doesn’t seem likely.

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The Field Players

Despite all the hype over the recent acquisitions, the key cogs in this machine are still Clayton Kershaw and Matt Kemp. It’s a promising sign then, that Kemp projects at a 144 OPS+ and the system has confidence in him continuing to put up offensive numbers in the ~.900 OPS range. His defense in center still lags below average, but his bat more than makes up for it. His playing time projection has dropped due to his injury woes last season, and quite frankly, it’s hard to fault it for that. Regardless, he still figures to be the most valuable field player on the team.

Adrian Gonzalez is slated to be another bright spot, as ZiPS pegs him to bounceback a bit, though not as much as some want, clocking in at an ~.830 OPS/128 OPS+. That would still be his lowest OPS+ since 2008 (besides 2012, of course), but it’s a marked improvement considering his age and negatively trending skills. A-Gon compensates for that lagging bat a bit by putting up plus defense almost worth a win by itself. Hanley Ramirez factors in as yet another bounceback candidate, projecting at a 115 OPS+, which is an upgrade over last year’s 106 and is closer to his pre-2011 production. Defensively, even his horribad -8 run defensive rating is optimistic to me, as he was truly terrible with the glove last year. Given that I already wanted to barf seeing him trying to turn a double play in 2012, I wouldn’t be surprised at all to see him put up horrid defensive numbers after basically not playing the position all of spring.

Unfortunately, that’s where a lot of the offensive optimism ends. Luis Cruz checks in at 84 OPS+ (106 last year), which will anger many fans, but is completely reasonable given the track record. He remains valuable through plus defense, though given the sample size, there’s reason to be skeptical there as well. A.J. Ellis at 96 OPS+ (118) is another depressing but completely logical projection, as evidenced by everybody’s surprise in 2012 at his potent bat. Andre Ethier at 112 OPS+ (123) is hard to figure for me, because he has been consistently putting up ~120 OPS+ seasons even if it has come down from the ~130 OPS+ range two years ago. I suppose the projection system thinks he’ll get old in a hurry … or maybe it just thinks he’ll face an inordinately high amount of lefties. Mark Ellis at 81 OPS+ (93) shouldn’t be much of a surprise considering he’s 36 and put up an 80 OPS+ at Coors Field in 2011.

The last guy of the starters is Carl Crawford, who is the enigma of the 2013 season. He checks in at 104, which is notable because it’s basically his career OPS+ and it’s about what he did in limited time in 2012 over in Boston. That’s of particular note for me, because what he did in Boston in 2012 can be attributed to a mechanical fix that I pointed out in an article for Baseball Prospectus. Understandably, his playing time checks in low, but if he can produce like he did in 2012 but over a whole season, the Dodgers will be much better for it.

Overall, after fixing the playing time of A.J., adjusting Ethier’s offense up a bit, and adjusting Hanley’s defense down a bit, the starting lineup totaled about 22 WAR.

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The Bench & The Prospects

Assuming a bench of Tim Federowicz, Scott Van Slyke or Alex Castellanos, Jerry Hairston Jr., Nick Punto, and Skip Schumaker, we’re looking at around 3 WAR here after playing time is adjusted back to realistic bench levels. I’m guessing Alfredo Amezaga or Tony Gwynn Jr. work their way in somehow, but a five-man bench seems likely initially if the Dodgers can’t deal multiple pitchers before the season starts. Neither player would affect the WAR projection much though.

Honestly? I have to hope the Dodgers do something to improve the bench, because the current configuration looks rather mediocre, and the other options are keeping Juan Uribe and/or Elian Herrera. Yuck.

The good news is that Joc Pederson, T-Fed, SVS, and Castle are projected to be solid at the MLB level, though it sees Dee Gordon basically languishing behind.

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The Rotation

Clayton Kershaw is simply a beast, and he figures to check in with a 75 FIP-. This might seem high considering his 2011 and 2012 ERA- figures of 63 and 67, respectively, but when you consider that Felix Hernandez clocks in at 78 FIP- for 2013, you get the picture.

What might surprise is how close new acquisition Zack Greinke comes in behind him, as he figures to put up an FIP- of 81. Granted, he has always projected favorably, as his career FIP- is 80, while his career ERA- is 88, but even adjusting slightly for that, there’s a definite case there for the best 1-2 punch in the majors.

Unfortunately, this is where it gets murky, as Chad Billingsley has the stuff to be the #3, but if I were a betting man, I would bet his elbow implodes before July. He projects at 92 FIP-, which would put him around last year’s performance, which was his arguably his best season since 2008. However, given the nature of his injury and its history in the league, you can basically never rely on him to stay healthy again until he has Tommy John surgery.

Next in the pecking order are Josh Beckett, who comes in below-average at 103, and foreign import Hyun Jin Ryu, who comes in well below-average at 116. As mentioned before, the scouting reports for Beckett match this projection, as he’s no longer a front-line starter due to his decrease in velocity. However, if he can manage to learn to pitch a bit more, he still has the curve to perhaps slot in as a #3 more than a #4. Ryu is a case where I would take any projection with a mound of salt, because there’s hardly anything to base objective projections on. Personally, I don’t think Ryu has the stuff to be a #2, nor do I think he’ll be a #3 on a team with a $250 million payroll, but he should slot in comfortably in the back-end of the rotation for years. I would project something slightly below-average for 2013 and then hope for better.

The rotation is a strong point because it has both arguably the best 1-2 punch in the majors and depth, with Chris Capuano (108 FIP-) and Aaron Harang (114 FIP) presumably traded for upgrades (or maybe kept somehow?), and it checks in at about 17 WAR.

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The Bullpen & The Prospects

As of right now, I’m assuming a bullpen of Brandon League, Kenley Jansen, Ronald Belisario, Javy Guerra, Matt Guerrier, J.P. Howell, and Ted Lilly.

Jansen is the best of the bunch (63 FIP-) and League projects a distant second (92 FIP-), but Belisario has the most upside in these projections (101 FIP-). After that, Guerra, Guerrier, and Howell are all around replacement level. Lilly projects as a league-average pitcher, assuming he’s healthy, which would be a boon to a team that has a ticking time bomb in the rotation.

As far as prospects go, ZiPS thinks Chris Reed could be a replacement-level fill-in right now, but Zach Lee, Matt Magill, and Garrett Gould need more seasoning. And for all of you who have Stephen Fife wet dreams (yes, you’re out there), he projects at a 4.91 FIP, so keep it in your pants.

Speaking of replacement level, that especially applies to the Dodgers bullpen because of Shawn Tolleson, Scott Elbert, Steven Ames, and Paco Rodriguez, so the 4 WAR projection for this pen figures to be solid.

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Team Projection

A replacement-level team figures to win 43 games, and the team with the lowest amount of wins to get into the playoffs last year was the Cardinals at 88 wins, so 42 WAR puts you in the contender range and 45 WAR makes you viable, while 50 WAR will generally make a team a safe bet to be in the postseason. The Dodgers total 46 WAR, which puts them well within the playoff hunt: good but not great.

The Dodgers basically project neck-and-neck with the rival Giants, while the D-Backs lag behind a bit by maybe a half dozen wins or so, but they’re well within striking distance as well.

So make no mistake, the Dodgers recent spending habits did not make them an elite team, as the money simply duct-taped over both a flawed team and farm system depleted by Frank McCourt‘s ownership and Ned Colletti‘s questionable decisions. But that’s not to denigrate the job the new owners have done, as they turned the franchise into a legitimate playoff contender seemingly overnight, which is still saying a lot about what money can do.

Granted, “we gave you a team that has the chance to make the playoffs” is not what fans want to hear, but it’s an acceptable scenario as they lay the foundation to rebuild the franchise the correct way in their own minds. The 2013 projections might not reflect world-beaters like most seem to expect, but it’s a projection based on historical trends rather than hopes and dreams.

The 2013 Dodgers are indeed a team with a lot of upside, and if everything breaks correctly, they could very well end up being one of the best teams in the league, but they also carry a ton of inherent age and injury risk, which is why the projections come in understandably conservative. Either way, if nothing else, this team figures to be never boring.

Dylan Hernandez reports the Dodgers have acquired Skip Schumaker from the Cardinals, sending minor-league shortstop Jake Lemmerman the other way. Chad has more on the deal here.

My reaction: meh.

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The Dodgers have designated Scott Van Slyke for assignment in order to make room on the 40-man roster for Schumaker. Van Slyke was the Dodgers’ 2011 Minor League Player Of The Year.

Van Slyke is unlikely to clear waivers, so there’s a good chance he gets traded in a minor deal.

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Tony Gwynn Jr. has received an invitation to Spring Training as a non-roster invitee, as he’s still under contract for 2013 but is not on the 40-man roster.

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The Red Sox will send $11.7 million dollars westward to the Dodgers as part of the mega-deal centered around Adrian Gonzalez. The payments will come in three equal installments of $3.9 million, to be made in 2013, 2014, and 2015, and they will conclude the deal.

—–

Zack Greinke‘s contract with the Dodgers is $147 million guaranteed, but it could increase to $158 million with incentives.

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Greg Zakwin is the founder of the site Plaschke Thy Sweater Is Argyle. Follow him on Twitter @ArgyledPlaschke.

Yes, this is the final installment of the 2012 Season Review for the Dodgers, and if you want to catch up on the others, then you can check out this tag here.

Otherwise, in the tables listed below, I have calculated the WAR (along with its components), value, and surplus value of every player on the Dodgers payroll in 2012.

It’s not meant to be taken literally (“A.J. Ellis is a better player than Matt Kemp!“), but I always learn stuff about the team that I hadn’t previously realized when I do it.

—–

The three best players on the Dodgers, according to WAR, were A.J. Ellis, Matt Kemp, and Andre Ethier, in order. The most valuable players, according to surplus value, were A.J. Ellis, Luis Cruz, and Mark Ellis.

Best hitters? Kemp, Ethier, and A.J. Ellis. Best baserunners? Dee Gordon, Shane Victorino, and Hanley Ramirez. Best fielders? Mark Ellis, Jerry Hairston Jr., and Cruz.

The three worst players on the Dodgers, according to WAR, were Gordon, Juan Rivera, and Alex Castellanos. The least valuable players, according to surplus value (excluding dead money), were Juan Uribe, James Loney, and Rivera.

Worst hitters? Gordon, Tony Gwynn Jr., and Uribe. Worst baserunners? A.J. Ellis, Adrian Gonzalez, and Matt Treanor. Worst fielders? Gordon, Kemp, Ramirez.

In related news, did you realize the Dodgers are STILL paying Juan Pierre? Good grief.

The three best pitchers on the Dodgers, according to WAR, were Clayton Kershaw, Chad Billingsley, and Chris Capuano, in order. The most valuable pitchers, according to surplus value, were Kershaw, Kenley Jansen, and Capuano.

The three worst pitchers on the Dodgers, according to WAR, were John Ely, Matt Guerrier, and Mike MacDougal. The least valuable players, according to surplus value (excluding dead money), were Ted Lilly, Guerrier, and Ely.

In related news, you can see why the Dodgers want to upgrade their rotation, as the team defense was decidedly average, but the staff RA WAR outperformed their FIP WAR by six wins.

—–

If there are any questions, let me know below.

Matt Kemp

After an amazingly elite 2011 that saw him finish second in MVP voting — even though he was the best player in the National League last year — Matt Kemp had to spend far too much of 2012 as you see him above. Kemp’s season is really quite easy to break down: when healthy, he was elite, but unfortunately, he was injured often.

Kemp, through the first month of the season, picked up right where he left off in 2011, to the tune of a monstrous .417/.490/.893/1.383 slash. Let that sink in for a moment; through the season’s first 23 games, Matt Kemp was getting on-base nearly half the time and slugging just shy of .900, a number most players would dream of for their OPS. He had 12 homers, four doubles, and a 21:13 K:BB ratio in that span, and while he wasn’t going to be able to maintain that type of slugging prowess, it just goes to show how dominant a stretch he was in.

—–

Unfortunately, all good things must come to an end, but for Matty it wasn’t just normal regression that leaped in his path. He injured his hamstring in early May, and after attempting to play through it, hit the shelf for a 15-day DL stint. He returned when first eligible and managed to make it two games before re-injuring the same hamstring.

After missing the next 37 games, Kemp returned and once again swung the bat with authority, hitting .325/.372/.488/.860 over his next 40 games, ending on August 26. Why August 26? Because on August 27 and 28, Kemp’s season changed for good, as The Bison injured the labrum in his left shoulder, his knee, and likely suffered a minor concussion after running into the center field wall in Colorado on consecutive nights.

Though he had a small stretch at the end of the year where his old powerful self was on display at the dish, Kemp massively struggled while playing with what was revealed to be a serious labrum tear. His slash line was a putrid .214/.267/.420/.686, and as I wrote multiple times, the simple fact that the Dodgers allowed him to play through it is idiotic.

—–

Even with such an injury-filled season in which he appeared in just 106 games, Kemp still managed to be the Dodgers’ best hitter, going .303/.367/.538/.905 with a .383 wOBA, .236 ISO, 146 wRC+, 23 HRs, and 47 XBHs. We know Kemp is, at his best, average defensively (with a plus arm), but in 2012 he cost the Dodgers roughly 9 runs in the field. How much of that could be attributed to his hamstring and shoulder injuries I won’t begin to assume, but I’ve never felt Kemp was as much a detriment in the field as the numbers suggest.

His running was obviously affected by the hamstring though, and by the end of the season Kemp had swiped nine bags and been caught four times. Taking into account the severity of Kemp’s hamstring and shoulder injuries, he should trend upwards in 2013 on the basepaths, though probably not to the level of 2011.

Following his 8.0+ WAR campaign in 2011, Kemp’s ~3.5 WAR in ’12 is impressive considering what he had to deal with injury-wise. A return to health in 2013 will hopefully bring with it a return to his 2011 numbers.

Tony Gwynn Jr.

On the roster solely based on his excellent defense, Tony Gwynn Jr. appeared in 103 games before being designated for assignment. Gwynn would clear waivers, accept a minor-league assignment, and find himself in AAA Albuquerque to finish off the season.

Gwynn started 43 games in center, but both his offense and defense suffered in comparison to 2011. Gwynn hit just .232/.276/.293/.569 overall with an atrocious .251 wOBA, and after saving the Dodgers roughly nine runs in 2011, that fell to ~2.5 runs saved in 2012.

Gwynn can easily be a fourth/fifth outfielder for a team because of his defense, even if it is on the decline, but he’s not the right fit for this Dodgers team, even with their need for a backup center fielder.

Elian Herrera

Elian Herrera had to fit into these reviews somewhere, and considering that he started nine games in center, he’ll slot in here. In those nine starts, he hit .214/.371/.286/.657, not far off from his slash line overall in 2012 of .251/.340/.332/.672 with a .304 wOBA. Herrera did show an impressive eye at the plate, walking 10.7% of the time.

Defensively, he was below-average in center and above-average at the corners, not necessarily demonstrating a defensive prowess that would make him valuable in spite of his hitting.

Heading towards age 28, he profiles as an end of the bench player, at best.

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Greg Zakwin is the founder of the site Plaschke Thy Sweater Is Argyle. Follow him on Twitter @ArgyledPlaschke.

Mike Scioscia’s Tragic Illness: Mike Petriello has a list of the players up for the Rule 5 Draft along with who he thinks will be protected on the 40-man roster.

True Blue LA: Brandon Lennox has basically the same thing but from his perspective.

Both are interesting reads, and I was considering doing one myself, but this off-season has been/will be a mess, so I’m not entirely sure how this will go down or how many spots are even available in reality. I mean, at this rate, some guys who get put on the 40-man might need to be designated or traded later anyway.

I’m not sure how many eligible minor-leaguers are actual threats to stick the whole season with an MLB club. Steven Ames and Tony Gwynn Jr. and … that’s about it?

—–

Plaschke Thy Sweater Is Argyle: Greg Zakwin‘s IBWAA ballot.

Feelin’ Kinda Blue: Dustin Nosler‘s IBWAA ballot.

In case you missed it, I posted mine here, along with the 2012 results.

—–

Plaschke Thy Sweater Is Argyle: Greg Zakwin questions whether or not the Dodgers moves to this point have been primarily public relations based.

The Dodgers are facing an interesting situation heading into the 2013 season — at least, the Albuquerque Isotopes and Chattanooga Lookouts are.

Following a Twitter exchange with Chris Jackson (@TopesWriter) and Evan Chavez (@newmexicofan), it occurred to me: The Isotopes and Lookouts are going to have some awfully crowded outfields — especially the ‘Topes.

The following outfielders are, at this point, slated to begin the 2013 season in Albuquerque:

Alex Castellanos: Could play second or third base.
Brian Cavazos-Galvez: Left fielder with some experience at first base.
Scott Van Slyke: Corner outfielder who the Dodgers don’t view as a 1B anymore (h/t to Jackson).
Kyle Russell: Corner outfielder who could fill in at center field in a pinch.
Blake Smith: Same as Russell, but better defensively.

Those guys are all but certain to be ‘Topes in 2013. Castellanos and Van Slyke have a chance to be on the Dodgers bench, but I’ll believe that when I see it. Nick Buss, who spent the entire 2012 season in Chattanooga, is another guy, and if things fall his way he could actually be the Isotopes starting center fielder. Of the guys listed above, Buss is the only true center fielder.

Then there are the players who aren’t even members of the Dodgers yet. Perennially, those are the likes of Trent Oeltjen and Matt Angle. Hell, Tony Gywnn Jr. is still under contract and could find himself back in New Mexico as well.

Bottom line is, the Isotopes are going to be jam-packed in the outfield.

—–

Including all of the guys above doesn’t even take into account players who could be promoted during the season based on performance — mainly, Bobby Coyle, Joc Pederson, and Yasiel Puig.

Coyle was a late-season call-up to Chattanooga and I think he’d have the best chance of playing in Albuquerque in 2013. Pederson is only 20 and should be with the Lookouts for the entire season (save perhaps a playoff call-up, as he was this past season for Chattanooga).

The wild card though is Puig. There’s no telling where he’ll begin, but it won’t be any lower than High-A Rancho Cucamonga. If he makes it to Double-A and flourishes, I could see him don an Isotopes uniform before the conclusion of the 2013 season.

Any of the trio being promoted quickly would make for even more of a mess than it already appears to be.

—–

Heading into last season, the Dodgers minor-league depth came in the form of right-handed pitchers and outfielders. They’ve already traded away a lot of the RHP depth and now it looks like the OF surplus could be next.

Too much of one position isn’t usually a bad thing, but the concern is that it could stunt the development of a few players, so it’ll be interesting to monitor the situation and see how it plays out.

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Dustin Nosler is the founder of the site Feelin’ Kinda Blue. He also co-hosts the weekly podcast Dugout Blues. Follow him on Twitter @FeelinKindaBlue or like his site on Facebook.

Mark Ellis missed two games due to an illness this week, and was replaced by Nick Punto in the lineup.

That’s for in case you were wondering why Punto was ever in the lineup to begin with. Though to be fair, he did do well in his limited playing time.

—–

Shane Victorino was scratched from Wednesday’s game with recurring wrist pain.

Oh well, he’s basically the unholy combination of Bobby Abreu and Tony Gwynn Jr. at this point anyway.

—–

Luis Cruz left Saturday’s game with a headache.

If he wasn’t so loved, I’m sure some idiot would say he’s soft for sitting out while the Dodgers are still alive in the playoff race, or some garbage like that. Josh Hamilton and Percy Harvin know what I mean.

—–

Chad Billingsley has continued to show improvement in his light throwing sessions.

His progress is probably going to be the story of the month unless the Dodgers somehow make the playoffs. Whether or not he needs Tommy John surgery is going to have a gigantic impact on 2013 and whether pitching is a priority for the Dodgers during the offseason.

Now that rosters have expanded, let the speculation on who gets the September call begin!

Pump the brakes a bit though, because unfortunately for the people who wish to see young players show their stuff: 1) the 40-man roster is full 2) guys on the 60-day DL are due to return 3) um … the team just traded away all of the top prospects that were close to contributing.

—–

One of the primary issues is that Rubby De La Rosa and Jerry Sands are still on the Dodgers 40-man roster, so it creates a bit of a mess in terms of roster spots. This is especially true because Ted Lilly (maybe) and Dee Gordon are set to return, which means guys will have to get designated just to fit them in. Perhaps Chad Billingsley, Kenley Jansen, or Scott Elbert could be placed on the 60-day DL, but that creates more holes, not less.

Either way, guys like Adam Kennedy, Juan Uribe, Matt Angle, Elian Herrera, and Stephen Fife might not want to get too comfortable on the 40-man, depending on what direction the team decides on. However, due to the roster crunch, those hoping for players not on the 40-man roster to get called — like John Ely, Tony Gwynn Jr., and Bobby Abreu — might be left disappointed.

—–

Among those who I feel could help the team immediately are Tim Federowicz, Javy Guerra, Josh Wall, and Alex Castellanos. I already went over the reasons Guerra could contribute, as I believed sending him down to begin with was foolish. Wall, despite just an average year at AAA, has the raw stuff catch fire and help stabilize a suddenly shaky bullpen. Federowicz is not as good a hitter as his .296/.371/.465/.836 line in AAA would indicate, but he’s a good defender and is an upgrade over Matt Treanor right now. Castellanos could provide right-handed thump off the bench, as his .338/.431/.610/1.041 line in AAA would somewhat indicate. I’d rather see him get a chance than continue to run Juan Rivera out there, that’s for sure.

Other possibilities on the 40-man are Scott Van Slyke and Fife. Van Slyke could do much the same as Castellanos, but I have less confidence in his bat. Still, he can hardly be a worse pinch hitting option than Uribe or Kennedy or Nick Punto. I’m not sure Fife would fit in the bullpen, but if he’s not going to get designated then he could be called up to use as a long man.

Ely, Gwynn, and Abreu could all help, but I have to think they’re long shots due to the roster crunch reasons I mentioned earlier. Personally, I would have no problem designating about a half dozen players, but the team has somehow managed to resist doing that all year, so I don’t see why they would start now. With that said, if a starter goes down with injury, Ely deserves a chance after putting up a 3.20 ERA in 168.2 innings with solid peripherals in that league. Gwynn has put up a .304/.400/.393/.793 line at AAA and I really feel like he has to be added to the 40-man and called up somehow, if for no other reason than to pinch run. If Abreu’s healthy, he could probably do what Shane Victorino is producing in left right now sans the defense, so he could be a useful bench guy.

—–

Assuming Billingsley, Jansen, and Elbert return from injury, and that Gordon will be back but not Lilly, I would call on Federowicz, Guerra, Wall, Castellanos, Van Slyke, Gwynn, and Abreu while designating Uribe, Angle, and Herrera.

The Dodgers announced moments ago that Jerry Sands would be getting the call from AAA and that Tony Gwynn Jr. has been designated for assignment.

OFFICIAL: @dodgers today designatedTony Gwynn Jr. for assignment and recalled outfielder/first baseman Jerry Sands from AAA Albuquerque.

— Los Angeles Dodgers (@Dodgers) August 6, 2012

Sands has done his part to deserve the shot, hitting .286/.368/.521/.889 at AAA, including a BABIP around league average. He’s hitting lefties and righties about equally well, so putting him down as a platoon guy seems a bit asinine, and unlike last year, when he posted a 1.153 OPS at Albuquerque and a .659 OPS away, this year he’s at .964 and .826, respectively.

It’s also worth noting that even if you don’t believe Sands will be a regular in the future, he has put up a .248/.329/.381/.710 line in his MLB career, which puts him 60 points higher than James Loney and Juan Rivera in 2012.

That fact happens to be exactly what I don’t understand about getting rid of Gwynn though.

Mike Petriello doesn’t mind ditching Gwynn because he doesn’t think Gwynn has any utility left for the team. While that’s true, I’m not quite sure what utility the others have either.

Designate plus-plus defender and fourth outfielder, keep two mediocre 1B who are only useful in a platoon and all around useless 3B.

— Chad Moriyama (@ChadMoriyama) August 6, 2012

I guess my argument is less that the team needs Gwynn and more that it needs Rivera, Loney, Juan Uribe, and Adam Kennedy less.

Gwynn’s .232/.276/.293/.570 line is terrible, without a doubt, but he’s still a plus-plus defender that’s better than anybody in the Dodgers outfield by a long shot. The type of player he is has value as a pinch runner, as a defensive replacement, and as an emergency starter — even if they can’t hit.

What utility do Loney, Rivera, Uribe, and Kennedy have? To me, they aren’t even useful off the bench as a pinch hitter (maybe Rivera).

Tony Gwynn Jr.: career .305/.372/.405 hitter in 147 PA as pinch-hitter. Between that and defense, should have been kept instead of Uribe

— Jay Jaffe (@jay_jaffe) August 6, 2012

Dodgers had (at least) four guys who are let’s say offensively challenged (Uribe, Loney, Rivera, Gwynn). They cut the best defender

— Eric Stephen (@truebluela) August 6, 2012

Regardless, it’s hard to get worked up about it, as we’re likely talking about 50-75 PA for Gwynn and whatever amount of defensive replacement appearances he would have got, but I just disagree that moving Gwynn instead of one of the other four was in the best interests of the Dodgers roster.

As I wrote yesterday, the Dodgers acquired outfielder Shane Victorino from the Phillies in return for reliever Josh Lindblom, AA starter Ethan Martin, and either a player to be named later or cash.

Shane Victorino is returning to the organization that drafted him in 1999. The Dodgers acquired Victorino from the Phillies today for starting pitching prospect Ethan Martin and reliever Josh Lindblom, according to Yahoo’s Tim Brown (Twitter link). The deal has been officially announced by both teams, and the Phillies also received a player to be named later or cash considerations.

Josh Lindblom

From 2011 to 2012, in what amounts to about a full season’s worth of work (75 G/77.1 IP), Lindblom has posted a 2.91 ERA/4.02 FIP/4.19 xFIP/3.53 SIERA. He’s been worth around 0.7 WAR in that time period and figures to be around 0.5 to 1.0 WAR annually, depending on whether you believe his defense independent profile or batted ball profile.

After this season, he has five years of team control left, so taking the middle ground of things, he figures to be worth around 4 WAR during that time.

Ethan Martin

I ranked Martin as the 21st best prospect in the system coming into 2012, based primarily on his upside. In 2011, he seemed destined for a bullpen role, as he could never get it together as a starter, but the lack of ceiling in the Dodgers system led me to rank him anyway.

The Dodgers decided to give him another shot in 2012 as a starter and it has paid dividends. In 118 innings at AA, he has a 3.58 ERA and a 3.48 FIP due to continuing to miss bats (22.9 K%) but dropping his walk rate four percent (12.5%).

He’s not that old for the level at 23 and would have ranked somewhere in the top 10 in the system going into 2013. I probably would have put his upside as a #3 starter or late inning reliever with a high risk grade, an improvement from #3/#4 starter and late inning reliever with a very high risk grade.

Player To Be Named Later Or Cash

PTBNL rarely amount to much so I wouldn’t be concerned about it. Cash obviously doesn’t affect the Dodgers much either. Both figure to be moot unless there’s a shocking twist.

Shane Victorino

2012 marks Victorino’s worst offensive season of his career, posting a .261/.324/.401/.724 line. He’s a good baserunner and an average defender in center (Last Four Years: 0 DRS, -7 FRAA), but a lot of his offensive value comes from the fact that he’s a center fielder, which may not be the case with the Dodgers. Still, there’s no doubt that he marks an upgrade over the previous occupants, who have posted a pathetic line of .238/.294/.329/.623.

Victorino projects at .271/.338/.439/.777 the rest of the way, while the three headed monster of Bobby Abreu (.253/.343/.373/.716), Juan Rivera (.261/.312/.394/.706), and Tony Gwynn Jr. (.252/.306/.341/.647) all clock in well below that.

Comparing Victorino with the three-headed monster that was sharing time in left shows a ~4.5 run upgrade offensively, ~0.5 run upgrade on the bases, and a ~3 run upgrade defensively. That’s assuming the regressed offensive performance and that Victorino adjusts from average/fringe center fielder to above average/good left fielder defensively. So he’s about a 0.8 marginal win upgrade or so.

For the record, PECOTA has him at only a half win upgrade.

—–

While I liked both Lindblom and Martin, they weren’t elite assets, so I’m not going to throw a fit like I was on Twitter when I thought they dealt Allen Webster. However, they were assets that obviously had value, and as a rule of thumb, I don’t like trading valuable assets for rentals except under certain circumstances (history generally shows why), such as an elite team looking to shore up roles.

My cause for concern with trades like these has less to do with Victorino specifically though, as he does indeed represent a significant upgrade in left. Over a full season, he would be about a 2.0 to 2.5 win upgrade over what the Dodgers were trotting out there. However, all they get is two months, and while I assumed he will regress to norms, he may not, and even if he does, his marginal value is minimal because of the time frame involved.

Overall, I understand why people are thrilled with this move, and I hope for the best along with everybody else, but I don’t think there’s much to get excited about either way.

People are always asking me on Twitter whether Dee Gordon will be demoted. Demoted? Please. Don Mattingly won’t even budge on dropping him from the top spot in the lineup.

For whatever reason, Mattingly absolutely refuses to consider dropping Gordon from the top, and judging by what he said to AJ Cassavell yesterday, it doesn’t seem like he’ll be changing that stance any time soon.

“Dropping Dee in the order sounds really easy,” said Mattingly, who rested Gordon for Sunday’s series finale against Colorado. “But then who do you want me to hit there?”

Mark Ellis? A.J. Ellis? Bobby Abreu? Juan Rivera‘s ruptured hamstring? Davey Lopes?

Basically anybody or anything with an OBP higher than .250.

Newly acquired outfielder Bobby Abreu could lead off, Mattingly said, but that would take a potent bat out of the middle of the order.

But Abreu doesn’t even have power anymore, so hypothetically, all he’s good for is walking (hollow OBP, as Beyond The Boxscore put it).

It’s not like he’s being asked to put Matt Kemp in the lead-off spot.

Second baseman Mark Ellis could bat first, but Mattingly likes him in the two-hole, hitting ahead of Matt Kemp and Andre Ethier, and doesn’t want Ellis’ role changing on a day-to-day basis.

Ellis’ spot in the lineup has nothing to do with his success though. Even if it did, unless he drops over 100 points in OBP, it’s not exactly going to kill the team any more than Gordon already is.

“He kind of needs to be that guy,” Mattingly said of Gordon. “I know we can’t force a square peg into a round hole, but we have been able to sustain so far without Dee kind of getting going.”

“I know we can’t force a square peg in a round hole … BUT I’M GONNA DO IT ANYWAY! TROLOLOLOLOLOLOL!” – Don Trollingly

Left fielder Tony Gwynn Jr. got the start on Sunday afternoon in the leadoff spot, but as a platoon player, Gwynn won’t be in the lineup with Gordon very often. When Gwynn does play on the same day as Gordon, Mattingly said he’d be fully comfortable moving Gordon down because of the speed and on-base ability Gwynn brings to the table.

This reveals the exact reason Mattingly refuses to demote Gordon. It’s basically because he can’t come to grips with the idea of using somebody without plus speed in the lead-off spot.

It’s why he’s comfortable with Tony Gwynn Jr. leading off despite his career .320 OBP, yet he makes excuses as to why the Ellis twins and Abreu can’t do it.

It’s like Mattingly’s decision making was imported from Dusty Baker and his dugout dice.

Mattingly dismissed that notion, saying he is content with leaving Ellis lower in the lineup, where he can drive in runs and turn the order over.

“You try to have a balanced lineup where you have a chance to score in all parts of the game,” Mattingly said. “Obviously the more guys you’ve got that are productive, the easier that is.”

Besides the fact that the lineup gets turned over regardless of batting order position, you know what else helps? Being productive in front of other productive players instead of walking, having the pitcher come up to create an automatic out, and setting it all up for … Gordon.

I love prospects, and I understand that Mattingly has to defend his guys, but moving a rookie shortstop down in the order so that there’s less pressure on him isn’t exactly some world ending move. In fact, it’s pretty standard, isn’t it? Joe Torre bat Kemp eighth for an eternity, so I think Gordon can stand a few plate appearances down there without imploding.

—–

In other news (maybe related), Elian Herrera is on his way to Los Angeles, and he’ll be activated if Kemp gets put on the disabled list.

His .282/.363/.388/.751 career line in the minors basically sums up his skills. He can take a walk, but offers little else.

So why does he get chosen? I don’t know. He’s a utility player, basically. He has played 2B/3B/SS/CF/LF, so Ned Colletti is inching closer to his dream of having an entire starting lineup of utility players.

Javy Guerra seems to be miraculously recovered from taking a ball off the jaw, but has hurt his foot.

Javy Guerra no longer has a swollen jaw, and outside of a slight headache on Thursday he has passed every test with flying colors, including a CAT scan.

But Guerra does have a sore foot, which happened as Guerra twisted to try to get out of the way of the line drive hit back at him by Brian McCann on Wednesday night. “Sue [Falsone, team trainer] feels like it’s short term and there’s really nothing structurally wrong there,” manager Don Mattingly said.

Guerra was reevaluated after throwing before Friday’s game, and cleared to throw per J.P. Hoornstra of the Daily News.

So he was available last night, they just decided to hold him out, which seems reasonable, especially considering that Don Mattingly didn’t take him out the other day because he didn’t think the ball hit him flush in the face.

Mattingly said that when he went to the mound Wednesday night, he thought the ball deflected off Guerra’s glove, though replays showed it hit him flush in the face. Though Mattingly said he would defer to assistant trainer Greg Harrel, who went to the mound with him to check on Guerra, there were some regrets in leaving him in the game after seeing the replay.

“If I would have known it would have got him straight on, I probably would have pulled him right away,” Mattingly said.

Well, I guess that answers my question as to why he left Javy in.

—–

Juan Rivera still hopes to avoid the disabled list.

Juan Rivera is out of the lineup again tonight, still nursing a strained left hamstring. Rivera took ground balls and hit in the cage before the game and may or may not be available to pinch hit tonight, depending on how Rivera feels and the evaluation from the training staff.

“We’re still hopeful that this thing’s not going to linger. He feels better today than he did yesterday,” Mattingly said of Rivera. “We’re still hopeful that he doesn’t have to go on the DL, and that maybe it’s just a couple of days.”

If I’m being honest, I don’t care that much.

One could make the argument that the difference between Tony Gwynn Jr.‘s glove and Rivera’s glove makes up for the difference in their bats.

—–

Nate Eovaldi is indeed being called up, which means Michael Antonini will be sent down after two days and no appearances.

As expected the Dodgers have recalled pitcher Nathan Eovaldi from Double A Chattanooga before Friday night’s game with the Washington Nationals. Eovaldi will replace Michael Antonini, who was optioned back to Triple A Albuquerque.

For Antonini, this has to be bittersweet, as he was just recalled on Tuesday and his initial cup of coffee in the majors included two days and no games pitched. On Tuesday, Antonini said his parents planned to make a trip from Philadelphia to possibly see him pitch.

Sucks for Antonini, but it’ll be a short stint for Eovaldi too, as he’ll likely go back down when Todd Coffey comes up, because his long-term role in the eyes of the Dodgers hasn’t changed.

Todd Coffey is due off the disabled list on Sunday.

Eovaldi has only pitched two innings since his start on April 9, but he said he has still done all his normal sidework and bullpen sessions under a starter’s workload, which is still the Dodgers’ plan for the 22-year old right-hander.

“We don’t want to get into him being in the bullpen. We want him preparing as a starter,” Mattingly said.

Understandable, as there’s much more value in even an average starter than a closer, but I still think back-end bullpen guy is a good possibility for him.

—–

Despite worries, it seems like the Dodgers ownership transfer will go off without a hitch.

When the Dodgers take the field Monday night, they should be under new ownership.

The sale of the Dodgers is expected to close as scheduled on Monday, according to three people familiar with the process.

Friday marked the deadline for parties to object to the U.S. Bankruptcy Court order approving the sale from Frank McCourt to Guggenheim Baseball, a group led by Mark Walter, Stan Kasten and Magic Johnson. No objections were filed.

I guess that’s when it will be officially over.

When you’re a team full of over-the-hill or never-were veterans, a team that is offensively-challenged to the umpteenth degree beyond your dominating center fielder, and a team that has a broke owner, playing your top offensive prospect who doesn’t make a lot of money and has the most upside of any of your left field candidates is the obvious and wise choice.

Unfortunately, if you’re the Los Angeles Dodgers, and more to the point, Ned Colletti, you sign Juan Rivera for $4 million (with a $4 million club option for 2013) and confuse the whole baseball world yet again.

—–

Rivera – after being plucked off waivers following his release from the Toronto Blue Jays – stepped to the plate 246 times over 62 games and hit .274/.333/.406 with a .324 wOBA.

Now, you may be asking yourselves how anyone could be impressed with this, aside from the fact that it meant sayonara to Marcus Thames, Jay Gibbons, and Eugenio Velez. Well, Rivera’s impressive play, in the eyes of Colletti, is based on two things: a BABIP-fueled (.358) 34-game stretch in which he smacked the ball to the tune of a .322/.367/.496/.863 line, and 46 RBIs in those 62 games in Dodger Blue. In his last 28 games to end the campaign, Rivera’s slash line: .221/.297./308/.605 with a .236 BABIP. Rivera’s career batting average on balls in play is .283, but it has not exceeded .300 since 2006. He most certainly has a place on this team, and one we should all welcome, but that place is not making four million dollars and starting in left field every day.

Rivera performs well against lefties, to the tune of a .289/.335/.495/.830 line, and the Dodgers have a first baseman and a right fielder who can’t hit lefties to save their tails. A match made in baseball heaven this should be. Platoon Juan with both Andre Ethier and James Loney, leaving left field wide open for the club’s best offensive prospect, who has nothing left to prove in the minors: Jerry Sands.

Rivera has never been more than a 2.8 WAR player, and Sands has displayed power, a good eye at the plate, and the ability to get on-base. Plus, and this can’t be stressed enough: he’s got upside and is only 24 years of age. If either of their respective glove work is concerning (Rivera actually boats a career UZR/150 of 4.8 in left and Sands’ best work in the field in small sample sizes has been in right), Tony Gwynn, Jr. is always around to play late-inning caddy.

—–

The moral of the story is this: don’t sign Juan Rivera for four million bones to be a starter on your team, and don’t let Ned Colletti have control of the signings to begin with.

Tim Dierkes of MLB Trade Rumors reported late on December 14th that the Cubs and Dodgers were both interested in having Coco Crisp play left field for them in 2012.

—

The revelation is surprising for the Dodgers, as the team already has five outfielders it can start the season with in Matt Kemp, Andre Ethier, Juan Rivera, Tony Gwynn Jr., and Jerry Sands. Additionally, the team has 39 of 40 roster spots occupied, and it was widely assumed that the last spot was reserved for a veteran reliever.

—

As for Crisp, since leaving the Red Sox in 2009 he has put up a .262/.326/.396/.722 line and has played solid defense in center field. It’s not that Crisp is a terrible player to have on a roster, it’s that he made almost $6 million last year and he’s not the type of player you usually want to invest in when you already have five MLB ready outfielders.

As such, I’m left to assume this is a clear indication that Ned Colletti does not want Sands on the roster to begin the season, thus proving that even with a limited budget, he will do everything in his power to not use a prospect while teams in far better situations do so regularly as a way to maximize value.

Just a weird story that came out of left field (no pun).

Yesterday, on December 12th, the Los Angeles Dodgers announced that they had re-signed Tony Gwynn Jr. to a two-year deal worth two million dollars.

—–

In 2011, Gwynn hit .256/.308/.353/.660 with the Dodgers, which was actually the second highest OPS of his career. However, his true value was in his defense, where he rates out as a plus defender at all three outfield positions.

As a primary reserve, I projected him at about 300 plate appearances with a slash line around .250/.320/.320/.640 with a .290 wOBA (-8.0 batting/1.0 baserunning/10.0 replacement). He’ll primarily play left field and spell Matt Kemp in center, but it doesn’t matter where he plays in the outfield, because he’s a plus defender everywhere (-3.0 position/6.0 defense). I’d even say there’s upside to be had here, because I don’t think this numbers would fall with increased playing time like most reserves.

Despite my flash reaction on Twitter to the announcement of yet another multi-year deal, Gwynn will be hard pressed to not live up to the contract, and he’s admittedly a solid bench piece.

I just don’t understand why everything has to be a two-year contract, as that’s just asking to limit roster and payroll flexibility for the new owner and new general manager. Hell, even Gwynn himself was surprised.

“The first offer they made me was a two-year deal,” Gwynn said. “I hadn’t even thought of that. When they came with a two-year deal, my ears immediately perked up.”

Aside from Matt Kemp’s extension, this is undoubtedly Ned Colletti‘s best deal of the off-season.

That’s sorta sad.

The Los Angeles Dodgers have announced today (December 12th) that they have signed Tony Gwynn Jr. to a two-year contract. Dylan Hernandez of the Los Angeles Times reports that he will earn $850k in 2012 and $1.15 million in 2013.

I’ll do analysis later, but he’s basically a replacement level type player. Granted, he’ll be hard pressed to not live up to the contract given playing time, but he was bordering on not being tendered a contract and the Dodgers gave him a two-year deal.

Everybody is getting two-year deals in Ned Colletti‘s attempt to make sure the Dodgers don’t compete until 2014 at the earliest.

Jerry Sands

Left Field: Ned Colletti’s Folly.

This is the Season Review I’ve been least looking forward to because it’s by far the most depressing, and it’s therefore the one I have the least interest in writing.

Essentially, left field was a hot mess in 2011, as the Dodgers used basically everybody, the kitchen sink, and Eugenio Velez. I’ll focus on the main guys and then leave the rest to rot in baseball purgatory where they belong.

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I begin with Jerry Sands because of his status as a top prospect heading into 2011 and his likely status as the 2012 starting left fielder. Sands mashed at every minor league level, and it was just a matter of time before he made his major league debut, particularly with the way Ned Colletti had constructed the team, and especially with the way he constructed said team in left and at first base. What was surprising though was that Sands made his debut on April 18th, earlier than just about anyone anticipated.

Jerry’s first 30 games were not spectacular by any means, but he showed the tools necessary to succeed, as he slashed .239/.343/.413/.756 with 12 extra-base hits and a 22:15 K:BB mark. He went the other way, was willing to draw a walk, and displayed a solid arm in the field.

His next 10 games would be his undoing, however, as he hit just .091/.143/.091/.234 with 0 extra-base hits and 11 strikeouts against just 2 walks (although it should be noted his BABIP was an unhelpful .136). Sands was sent back to AAA and asked to make adjustments at the plate, and make adjustments he did.

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Upon his return to the show as a September call-up on the 8th, Jerry displayed the hitting prowess that Dodger fans everywhere were hoping would translate. In 20 games, he mashed at a .342/.415/.493/.908 clip with seven XBHs and an 18:8 K:BB mark. He hit in 14 straight and cemented himself as a starter somewhere on the diamond next season, barring any Uncle Ned funny business.

His home/road splits, as noted by Mike Petriello, were certainly something that needs noting, but with his minor league success, plate discipline, ability to use all fields, and raw power, I’m not concerned that he’ll morph into the right-handed version of James Loney.

Juan Rivera

After being picked up off of waivers from Toronto, Juan Rivera split time in right, left, and at first. Never more than a role player in Anaheim, Rivera tanked with the Jays before landing his new gig in Los Angeles by simply being better than Marcus Thames’ corpse. Juan started 32 games in left for the Dodgers and matched his solid reputation with the glove (2011 L.A. UZR/150 of 4.1, career 4.8).

However, despite a fast start, James Loney’s temporary caddy did not perform as admirably with the bat. During his 62 game stint, and almost 250 plate appearances after being signed, Juan slashed .274/.333/.406 with a .324 wOBA. Again, better than Marcus Thames, but not worthy of a starting gig with the Blue Crew in 2012.

As a right-handed platoon-mate for Ethier and Loney, Rivera could fit in nicely with the club. Beyond that, however, he’s not worthy of more than a one-year deal with a small salary of one to two million.

JaMarcus Gwybbons, Jr.

Coined by the aforementioned Petriello, this motley trio was Ned Colletti’s bright idea to begin the season in left.

Gwynn Jr. was a glove-only player to begin with, as well as being the only option to spell The Bison in center. He met those expectations, as his UZR/150 in left was a spectacular 20.9, with a 23.7 overall in 677 innings in the field. His bat was miniscule as usual, as he hit .256/.308/.353 with a .299 wOBA and checked in with a WAR of 1.6. As a backup outfielder playing for a million or so, he certainly has a place on the squad, as he was also successful on 22 of 28 stolen base attempts (79%).

Marcus Thames was hurt and ineffective before being DFA’d. A triple slash line of .197/.243/.333, a wOBA of .254, a wRC+ of 58, and a WAR of -0.3 will inevitably lead to your release. He also displayed a lead glove, with a UZR/150 of -14.6.

Gibbons spent time on the DL with vision problems before not doing anything in the show and being DFA’d back to Albuquerque. His WAR was equivalent to Thames’, his wOBA was just .293, and he, like Marcus, doesn’t walk enough (8.1 BB%), strikes out too much (22.6% of the time), and couldn’t field a ball to save his or anyone else’s life (2011 UZR/150 in 100 innings of -46.5).

Totality Of The Situation

The Dodgers used 10 men in left, traded away their best defensive outfield prospect in Trayvon Robinson, and let Eugenio Velez start a game in left and appear in three more.

Baseball America: Shawn Tolleson was the only Dodgers prospect to make the 2011 Minor League All-Stars team, as he was awarded a spot on the second team as a reliever.

Baseball America: When naming All-Star teams per level though, former Dodgers prospect Trayvon Robinson lands at AAA, Scott Van Slyke checks in at AA, and Joc Pederson at R.

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MLB: Don Mattingly wants Tony Gwynn Jr. back next year, which is not surprising. If he comes back at around a million, he’s a solid reserve.

Los Angeles Times Blog: Steve Dilbeck gives reasons to appreciate the 2011 Dodgers.

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Baseball Analytics: Kenley Jansen’s cutter is nasty.

True Blue LA: Eric Stephen looks at the connection between Chad Billingsley and A.J. Ellis. Despite Billingsley’s solid start yesterday, I agree that the catcher isn’t the issue here.

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Beyond The Box Score: I don’t understand why it’s so hard for people to grasp the concept that “Moneyball” was about this:

Essentially: find players with a skill set that most teams overlook and exploit the market deficiency.

No, it was not about signing low average, high on base, poor defending, slow players.

The Book: Tom Tango looks at whether time of day affects hitters and pitchers. Loved this.

True Blue LA: Eric Stephen looks at how Jamey Carroll exceeded expectations.

While I don’t have the post anymore, I’m quite sure I didn’t like his signing at all. However, by mid-2010, it became quite apparent that he was going to be a valuable player for the Dodgers going forward. It wasn’t about grittiness or hustle or whatever storyline people want to feed you, it was about him taking walks, having positional versatility, and providing dependable defense over two years where the Dodgers didn’t have much of it at the 2B, 3B, and SS positions.

Never been happier to be so wrong about a player.

Mike Scioscia’s Tragic Illness: Will the Dodgers splurge on Albert Pujols or Prince Fielder? Should they?

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Los Angeles Times: Jonathan Broxton will undergo arthroscopic surgery on his elbow. He’ll be out for about six weeks, but he should be ready for Spring Training 2012.

I suppose the Dodgers could bring him back on the one year deal he allegedly desires, but he might benefit from a fresh start with a fresh fan base that doesn’t treat him like shit.

MLB: Tony Gwynn Jr. got an MRI that revealed a jammed shoulder, but we’re still waiting on the results.

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The Seattle Times: Trayvon Robinson’s journey to the big leagues.

The Seattle Times: His path to the majors in multimedia format.