As fans of the Dodgers, we’re always analyzing which pitchers have the best and worst pitches, but we normally base that on nothing but our own feelings at the moment, so I decided to take a more objective look at things.

For a pitch to qualify for these rankings, I used a 200-pitch minimum for starters and a 50-pitch minimum for relievers. The metric used to measure pitch effectiveness is True Average (TAv), which is basically like wOBA. League average performance is set at .260, and the metric doesn’t include baserunning.

Additionally, to prevent the post from being solely numbers-based, and one that would have been mind-numbingly boring, I decided to provide visual evidence as well.

—–

Worst Overall Pitches

Shawn Tolleson – Sinker – .395 TAv

Mike MacDougal – Sinker – .342 TAv

Matt Guerrier – Fastball – .320 TAv

Relief pitchers have smaller sample sizes, so they are prone to fluctuations, but they have the advantage of appearing in short bursts and limiting their arsenal to only their best pitches.

So … uh … this is TERRIBLE.

.395 is like 40 points higher than Mike Trout in 2012 for fucks sake.

H-h-how?

—–

Worst Individual Pitches

Fastball

Matt Guerrier – .320 TAv

*Visual Is Above*

Shawn Tolleson – .273
Javy Guerra – .256
Scott Elbert – .237
Ronald Belisario – .082

Ugh.

Sinker

Shawn Tolleson – .395 TAv

*Visual Is Above*

Mike MacDougal – .342
Brandon League – .280
Todd Coffey – .263
Randy Choate – .262
Jamey Wright – .258
Ronald Belisario – .225

No … just no.

Cutter

Jamey Wright – .258 TAv

Scott Elbert – .242
Javy Guerra – .208
Kenley Jansen – .187
Matt Guerrier – .139

Curve

Javy Guerra – .271 TAv

Jamey Wright – .171

Finishing last out of two isn’t bad, but giving up a .271 on a curve as a reliever is.

Slider

Kenley Jansen – .236 TAv

Jamey Wright – .215
Todd Coffey – .214
Shawn Tolleson – .206
Brandon League – .147
Ronald Belisario – .121
Randy Choate – .058

I actually think he could benefit from throwing this more often because it’s a quality pitch. Not hanging it is a different story, but how is he supposed to learn command of it if he never uses it?

Change

None Qualified

Splitter

Brandon League – .096 TAv

He’s the only reliever that qualified for this pitch, so I guess he’s technically the best and the worst, but considering his split was the second-most effective pitch by a reliever for the team in 2012, I’m pretty sure he gets a pass.

As fans of the Dodgers, we’re always analyzing which pitchers have the best and worst pitches, but we normally base that on nothing but our own feelings at the moment, so I decided to take a more objective look at things.

For a pitch to qualify for these rankings, I used a 200-pitch minimum for starters and a 50-pitch minimum for relievers. The metric used to measure pitch effectiveness is True Average (TAv), which is basically like wOBA. League average performance is set at .260, and the metric doesn’t include baserunning.

Additionally, to prevent the post from being solely numbers-based, and one that would have been mind-numbingly boring, I decided to provide visual evidence as well.

—–

Best Overall Pitches

Randy Choate – Slider – .058 TAv

Brandon League – Splitter – .096 TAv

Ronald Belisario – Slider – .121 TAv

The first two pitches should come as no surprise given that they are basically what both pitchers make their money off of. However, Ronald Belisario’s slider? Really? Yeah, but I’m guessing that’s almost entirely based on how surprised hitters are to see it when they’re expecting nothing but 95-97 mph sinking fastballs.

—–

Best Individual Pitches

Fastball

Scott Elbert – .237 TAv

Javy Guerra – .256
Shawn Tolleson – .273
Matt Guerrier – .320

Ronald Belisario’s .082 was disqualified because I’m about 99% sure these pitches were simply identified incorrectly. In any case, I’m surprised by how the Dodgers have zero fireballing fastball relievers.

Sinker

Ronald Belisario – .225 TAv

Jamey Wright – .258
Randy Choate – .262
Todd Coffey – .263
Brandon League – .280
Mike MacDougal – .342
Shawn Tolleson – .395

To have everybody know the pitch is coming and to still beat hitters with it is amazing.

Cutter

Kenley Jansen – .187 TAv

Javy Guerra – .208
Scott Elbert – .242
Jamey Wright – .258

Matt Guerrier actually had a .139, but he barely met the minimum and Kenley Jansen’s cutter is his main pitch and was still below .200, which is silly. Also, I’m biased and wanted to show that GIF. Deal with it.

Curve

Jamey Wright – .171 TAv

Javy Guerra – .271

Slider

Randy Choate – .058 TAv

*Visual Is Above*

Ronald Belisario – .121
Brandon League – .147
Shawn Tolleson – .206
Todd Coffey – .214
Jamey Wright – .215
Kenley Jansen – .236

Unfair to lefties, really.

Change

None Qualified

Splitter

Brandon League – .096 TAv

*Visual Is Above*

When he has got his command working, it’s a filthy, filthy pitch.

Baseball America: Dodgers have hired Patrick Guerrero as their Latin American Coordinator.

Guerrero, who lives in the Dominican Republic, will run the organization’s scouting throughout Latin America. The Mariners had fired Guerrero as their Latin American coordinator earlier this month at the same time they announced that Bob Engle, their vice president of international scouting, had decided to leave the organization. Seattle’s decision to fire Guerrero, according to Baseball America’s sources, was made above Engle, an unusual move for a Latin American scout. Both Guerrero and Engle had been with the Mariners since 2000.

Baseball America: Bob Engle has been added to the Dodgers staff as the Vice President Of International Scouting.

The Dodgers have made more changes to their international scouting department, most notably with today’s hiring of Bob Engle as their vice president of international scouting.

Bob Elliot reported last night on Twitter that the Dodgers were going to hire Engle, whose contract with the Mariners as their vice president of international scouting ended yesterday.

Word in the industry is that there could be more major changes coming to the team’s front office, but the team has already confirmed that Engle will bring aboard several of his former lieutenants with the Mariners to work for the Dodgers.

He’ll bring on scouts that have worked with him with the Mariners.

Three other scouts who had worked for Engle in Seattle will join his staff with the Dodgers. Pat Kelly is coming in as the team’s Pacific Rim coordinator after holding the same title in Seattle. Jamie Storvick, who resides in Taiwan, will also be heavily involved in the team’s Pacific Rim work. Gene Grimaldi will help lead the team’s efforts in Europe. The Dodgers are also bringing in Mike Tosar, who had been out of baseball but also previously worked with Engle in Seattle, as a special assignment scout.

Dodgers continue to add quality staff, which can only be seen as a positive.

—–

MLB.com: Todd Coffey, Juan Rivera, and Matt Treanor had their options declined by the team.

The Dodgers declined the 2013 contract options for pitcher Todd Coffey, outfielder Juan Rivera and catcher Matt Treanor on Monday.

Coffey, who missed the second half of the season after undergoing his second Tommy John elbow reconstruction surgery, was bought out of a $2.5 million salary for $300,000.

Rivera, who shuttled between left field and first base until the trades for Shane Victorino and Adrian Gonzalez, was bought out of a $4 million salary for $500,000.

Treanor, who saw only sporadic action backing up A.J. Ellis, was bought out of a $950,000 salary for $150,000.

No shockers here. We’re all just glad they’re gone, I figure.

Los Angeles Times: Chad Billingsley seems to be on track to pitch in 2013.

“It looks like he’s going to be ready for the 2013 season,” said Dave Stewart, Billingsley’s agent.

Billingsley touched 94 mph with his fastball and threw an assortment of pitches, including his four-seamer, two-seamer, curveball and changeup. Billingsley threw 35 to 40 pitches.

One still has to wonder how long this will last though. I haven’t heard of too many success stories in regards to rehabbing torn elbow ligaments.

MLB.com: Kenley Jansen is on the road to recovery after heart surgery.

“I feel so much better now than I did at the end of the season,” said Jansen, who has recovered enough from last week’s heart surgery to take part in a Halloween candy giveaway on Monday at the Home Depot Center soccer stadium.

“I was dragging all day long at the end,” he said. “I can tell I’ve got so much more energy. Now I look at this soccer field and just want to get out there and start playing. I’m feeling so good.”

Jansen underwent a successful three-hour ablation surgery performed by Dr. Koonwalee Nademanee at White Memorial Hospital on Oct. 23. During the procedure, the abnormal tissue in his heart was identified and then cauterized to stop the erratic electrical signals sent from the area.

Jansen said his heart went into an irregular beat when the surgery started, helping doctors quickly pinpoint the areas needing attention. He said he still has some stiffness in his groin area, where two small incisions were made, but otherwise feels better than he had.

“It wasn’t scary at all,” said the 25-year-old. “I just wanted to get it over with. I feel it’s a relief and it will be good for me for the rest of my life. I just wanted to get it done, and I know this doctor is one of the great experts and I have a lot of confidence in him.”

Baseball aside, I just hope this ends his heart issues once and for all.

—–

FanGraphs: Jeff Sullivan thinks that Brandon League‘s contract is an example of inefficiency by the team.

Yet I might just be skipping around the major point. Brandon League has closer-type stuff, and the Dodgers want League to close, but the Dodgers already had an effective closer in Kenley Jansen. Granted, Jansen just underwent heart surgery, but his outlook is very good and he intends to be at full strength come spring training. Last year Jansen had 99 strikeouts in 65 appearances. He’s dominant when he’s pitching, and on top of that, he’s cheap. So the Dodgers aren’t paying League to fill a gaping void. That makes this move seem more unnecessary.

And League has supposedly figured it out before, only to lose it again within weeks or months. The fact that he had to re-discover the feel for his splitter says that, previously, he has lost the feel for his splitter after having had it. League, at his absolute best, is a very good reliever worth millions of dollars, but he’s seldom at his absolute best and he’s hardly been the model of consistency. The Dodgers didn’t just make a godawful move. They made a move that’s easier to criticize than defend. Individual inefficiencies aren’t a big deal, but individual inefficiencies do add up, and the Dodgers seem to be adding them up.

Baseball Prospectus: R.J. Anderson doesn’t think history will view the deal favorably.

Handing out a three-year deal to any non-elite reliever is asking for a lousy return on investment—ditto the $7.5 million average annual value. Why then are the Dodgers marching into the land of poor ROI? It might be that Colletti suspects the rest of the league, flush with cash, will hit the market with similar ferocity; causing an apparent overpay to blend in with the norm in the coming weeks. The chicken-or-the-egg scenario here is whether Colletti’s attempt to beat the market inadvertently set the market, but that’s a topic for another day. In a market with so many right-handed relief options available, it seems fair to ask if the endowment effect fooled the Dodgers into liking League more than they should.

In all likelihood, no one, save League and his agency, will stamp this move with a gold star in three years. You can make sense of it from the Dodgers’ point of view if you want to, however.

Sounds familiar, so I guess I’m not the only one thinking along those lines.

—–

FanGraphs: Does throwing a lot of strikes indicate a pitcher who is at less risk for injury? A case study by Jeff Zimmerman seems to suggest that.

Eric Stephen of True Blue LA relays the news that Todd Coffey is out for the year with an elbow strain.

Dodgers relief pitcher Todd Coffey received some bad news on Tuesday, as the reliever is out for the season with a partially torn ulnar collateral ligament in his right elbow.

Coffey didn’t feel any pain in his arm, so he didn’t expect much to come out of Tuesday’s MRI exam.

“The only thing I anticipated was inflammation. I didn’t anticipate any structural damage because it didn’t feel that way,” Coffey said. “I expected rest, maybe in four or five days I’d be good to go but to have that bombshell dropped on me sucks.”

The bullpen injuries are getting a bit ridiculous now, so the team’s depth will matter. Shawn Tolleson will be needed to step up in his front-end role, if not, Josh Wall might get the next shot.

Seriously though, Ned Colletti should just completely stay away from signing veteran bullpen arms.

Via Vin Scully Is My Homeboy

So according to Alex Angert of MLB.com, the Dodgers are winning because they like each other … or something to that effect.

But in the Dodgers’ clubhouse, it provides the best possible answer as to why this mixed-and-matched bunch of journeymen and callups have been able to string together the best record in baseball at 42-25.

Not a surprising article, and quite frankly, I expected one sooner.

Whenever a team achieves something above what was expected, the media generally takes the easy way out and attributes the success to chemistry or some other intangible. It’s a simple justification for a complicated reality, and it basically amounts to saying, “We were wrong, but not actually wrong, we just couldn’t see the things that nobody else could have seen either!” But that’s lazy to me, and it’s almost completely devoid of responsibility.

For my part, I predicted the 2012 Dodgers to check in at 81-81, and I actually thought I was being optimistic due to the projection models of everyone else.

As for my mea culpa, I’ll simply say that I was wrong, but for quantifiable/real reasons.

—–

Quite simply, they are winning because they are good on paper, not because of mysterious forces. The team’s Pythagorean record is 40-27, they are 42-25. Their third-order wins record (factors in opponent quality/statistical normalization) is 39-28, good for second in the NL and fourth in the MLB. Their performance thus far shows that they’ve simply been legitimately good.

Now whether the talent level is legit is a different story. Nobody had the Dodgers as one of the most talented teams in the majors, which is still probably true. So what accounts for their success? Heart and grit and stuff, right? Not really.

They have shown to have more talent than projected, despite certain positions still remaining mediocre. While Clayton Kershaw has come back to Earth a bit, Matt Kemp not only didn’t regress but actually progressed (while healthy), and Andre Ethier is on pace for the best season of his career. Jerry Hairston Jr., Bobby Abreu, Elian Herrera, Chris Capuano, and Aaron Harang, despite impending regression, have all shown to have talent levels above their projections as well. Not to mention that the bullpen has been rock solid despite being almost entirely reliant on team controlled arms from the farm system.

That talent, however, hasn’t succeeded on its own, as the team currently own the second highest BABIP in the majors at .318. Furthermore, while their ERA is second at 3.13, their FIP is sixth at 3.65 and their xFIP is 11th at 3.86. On an individual level, Abreu has a .431 BABIP, Herrera has a .410 BABIP, and I’ve already pointed out that the rotation has overachievers as well.

So the Dodgers have been winning because they’ve been partially extremely good and partially extremely fortunate. It’s an excellent combination that has powered the team to the best record in baseball despite injuries and mediocre talent at multiple positions. Of course, there’s nothing wrong with being both lucky and good. The fact that they are treading water without the guy who carried the team for April is amazing, and in a fortunate bit of timing, if they can continue to tread water until Kemp comes back, the team shouldn’t actually regress as hard as they would normally be expected to.

—–

So while I do believe that Don Mattingly is a great clubhouse guy and I do think his work has factored into the team’s success, I also believe that winning creates chemistry, not the other way around. It’s not hard to love each other when you hold the best record in baseball.

It’s easy to just assign a magical season to outstanding team chemistry or due karma now that the team is without Frank McCourt or the gravitational pull of Todd Coffey‘s gut helping to align the planets, but there are quantifiable reasons for their success without having to resort to intangibles and superstition.

Hopefully people recognize that, because doing otherwise sells the quality of their achievements short.

The Dodgers have signed free-agent infielder Aaron Miles and asked for unconditional release waivers on right-handed reliever Mike MacDougal, who was designated for assignment last Thursday when Ronald Belisario was activated.

How does a player like Miles price himself out of the free agent market? How delusional was he, exactly?

“Oh ho ho! Albert Pujols got paid $240 million this off-season, and his WAR was only six times higher than mine, so it’s $40 million or bust for me in 2012!”

Fail.

Then there’s the Mike MacDougal news, which you may be celebrating about, until you realize that Todd Coffey has somehow managed to be worse.

—–

In “oh well” injury news, Juan Rivera is going to be out for a while.

Dodgers outfielder Juan Rivera has a ruptured left hamstring tendon and could be out as long as two months, trainer Sue Falsone said on Friday.

Rivera — who had been hobbled by hamstring problems for weeks but felt a pop sliding into third base on Tuesday night and was placed on the disabled list on Wednesday — has a rupture where the tendon inserts into the knee. Falsone said it is an unusual baseball injury and there’s a medical debate whether surgery is appropriate.

“We will re-evaluate after two weeks and see where we’re at,” Falsone said. “[Rivera] did some exercises today and was pain-free. The best case is that he’s ready to return in 15 days, but I don’t think that’s what we’re looking at. The worst case is six to eight weeks. He will play this season, for sure.”

In “aw shit” injury news, Jerry Hairston Jr. won’t be back for a while.

The Dodgers placed infielder Jerry Hairston on the 15-day disabled list on Friday with a strained left hamstring and recalled infielder Justin Sellers from Triple-A Albuquerque.

“It would be a foolish thing to go out there and blow it out and miss two months,” said Hairston. “I blew out the right one and was out three or four weeks. This won’t take that long.

Can you imagine a bench of Aaron Miles, Justin Sellers, Adam Kennedy, and Matt Treanor?

I mean … seriously?

On a first place team.

Seriously.

Much to the relief of Dodgers fans everywhere, it was Mike MacDougal who was designed for assignment to make room for the returning Ronald Belisario.

ROSTER MOVE: The @Dodgers today designated RHP Mike MacDougal for assignment while MLB reinstated Ronald Belisario from the Restricted List.

— Los Angeles Dodgers (@Dodgers) May 3, 2012

It’s a relief because, as I discussed before, the bullpen was about to get crowded and moves were going to have to be made. The Dodgers could have gone the easy route, by demoting Josh Lindblom, but instead choose to keep their best pitchers around. Maybe a no-brainer in theory, but given the Dodgers history in practice, I was pleasantly surprised.

With that said, even Belisario’s future is in doubt when Matt Guerrier is ready to return. When Belisario last pitched in the MLB in 2010, he posted a 5.04 ERA, and he had a 7.71 ERA in the 4.1 innings he pitched in the minors this year. Granted, how well he’s throwing is more important than his performance at this juncture, but it’s not a stretch to say he could be the guy who goes for Guerrier in a couple of weeks.

Still though, even if that gets sorted, there’s the issue of whether Shawn Tolleson could help the club right now. Between three levels in 2011, he put up a 1.17 ERA with 105 strikeouts and 18 walks in 69 innings. In 2012, he has a 0.90 ERA at AA with 18 strikeouts and 3 walks. By all accounts, the scouting reports seem to hold up, and while he might not have closer stuff, he has 7th/8th inning guy written all over him, much like Lindblom did, which is more than I can say at this point for Jamey Wright and Todd Coffey.

Despite fan perception, the bullpen isn’t actually a problem area, as it’s been adequately middle of the road thus far. However, it can get better if the Dodgers want it to, and since they’ve shown a change in their process through keeping Lindblom around in favor of an ineffective veteran, I would hope they don’t show hesitation when it comes to Tolleson as well.

Javy Guerra seems to be miraculously recovered from taking a ball off the jaw, but has hurt his foot.

Javy Guerra no longer has a swollen jaw, and outside of a slight headache on Thursday he has passed every test with flying colors, including a CAT scan.

But Guerra does have a sore foot, which happened as Guerra twisted to try to get out of the way of the line drive hit back at him by Brian McCann on Wednesday night. “Sue [Falsone, team trainer] feels like it’s short term and there’s really nothing structurally wrong there,” manager Don Mattingly said.

Guerra was reevaluated after throwing before Friday’s game, and cleared to throw per J.P. Hoornstra of the Daily News.

So he was available last night, they just decided to hold him out, which seems reasonable, especially considering that Don Mattingly didn’t take him out the other day because he didn’t think the ball hit him flush in the face.

Mattingly said that when he went to the mound Wednesday night, he thought the ball deflected off Guerra’s glove, though replays showed it hit him flush in the face. Though Mattingly said he would defer to assistant trainer Greg Harrel, who went to the mound with him to check on Guerra, there were some regrets in leaving him in the game after seeing the replay.

“If I would have known it would have got him straight on, I probably would have pulled him right away,” Mattingly said.

Well, I guess that answers my question as to why he left Javy in.

—–

Juan Rivera still hopes to avoid the disabled list.

Juan Rivera is out of the lineup again tonight, still nursing a strained left hamstring. Rivera took ground balls and hit in the cage before the game and may or may not be available to pinch hit tonight, depending on how Rivera feels and the evaluation from the training staff.

“We’re still hopeful that this thing’s not going to linger. He feels better today than he did yesterday,” Mattingly said of Rivera. “We’re still hopeful that he doesn’t have to go on the DL, and that maybe it’s just a couple of days.”

If I’m being honest, I don’t care that much.

One could make the argument that the difference between Tony Gwynn Jr.‘s glove and Rivera’s glove makes up for the difference in their bats.

—–

Nate Eovaldi is indeed being called up, which means Michael Antonini will be sent down after two days and no appearances.

As expected the Dodgers have recalled pitcher Nathan Eovaldi from Double A Chattanooga before Friday night’s game with the Washington Nationals. Eovaldi will replace Michael Antonini, who was optioned back to Triple A Albuquerque.

For Antonini, this has to be bittersweet, as he was just recalled on Tuesday and his initial cup of coffee in the majors included two days and no games pitched. On Tuesday, Antonini said his parents planned to make a trip from Philadelphia to possibly see him pitch.

Sucks for Antonini, but it’ll be a short stint for Eovaldi too, as he’ll likely go back down when Todd Coffey comes up, because his long-term role in the eyes of the Dodgers hasn’t changed.

Todd Coffey is due off the disabled list on Sunday.

Eovaldi has only pitched two innings since his start on April 9, but he said he has still done all his normal sidework and bullpen sessions under a starter’s workload, which is still the Dodgers’ plan for the 22-year old right-hander.

“We don’t want to get into him being in the bullpen. We want him preparing as a starter,” Mattingly said.

Understandable, as there’s much more value in even an average starter than a closer, but I still think back-end bullpen guy is a good possibility for him.

—–

Despite worries, it seems like the Dodgers ownership transfer will go off without a hitch.

When the Dodgers take the field Monday night, they should be under new ownership.

The sale of the Dodgers is expected to close as scheduled on Monday, according to three people familiar with the process.

Friday marked the deadline for parties to object to the U.S. Bankruptcy Court order approving the sale from Frank McCourt to Guggenheim Baseball, a group led by Mark Walter, Stan Kasten and Magic Johnson. No objections were filed.

I guess that’s when it will be officially over.

With yet another curiously timed injury to a bullpen arm, this time Matt Guerrier, the Dodgers have managed to avoid making a bullpen decision for at least 15 more days.

Dodgers reliever Matt Guerrier, signed in part to be the bullpen workhorse, was placed on the 15-day disabled list Tuesday because of right elbow flexor tendinitis.

Guerrier had an MRI, which revealed no issues with the ligament that leads to Tommy John surgery. He received a platelet-rich plasma injection, will rest for several days, then begin tossing.

The Dodgers called up left-hander Michael Antonini from Triple-A Albuquerque to replace Guerrier in the bullpen.

Michael Antonini was called up from AAA to replace Guerrier for a spell until Todd Coffey returns.

While this game can continue on for a bit, the Dodgers are going to have to cut somebody loose eventually. Especially with Ronald Belisario on the way back.

Troubled Dodgers reliever Ronald Belisario will start a Minor League rehab assignment next week and is eligible to return from a 25-game suspension for violating Major League Baseball’s drug policy on May 4.

Belisario, however, is out of options and the Dodgers must decide if he’s ready to help the club on that date. If not, they cannot send him to the Minor Leagues unless he clears waivers, but he could be taken by another club.

With both Belisario and Guerrier due to return, that leaves the team with Javy Guerra, Kenley Jansen, Guerrier, Scott Elbert, Belisario, Coffey, Mike MacDougal, Jamey Wright, and Josh Lindblom.

Out of that group, two guys have to go, because the Dodgers have a weak bench as it is, and carrying 13 pitchers is just asinine (if they do decide on that, I’ll be sure to have something to say about it).

One has to figure that Guerra, Jansen, Guerrier (big contract), Elbert (only lefty), and Belisario (otherwise why go through the headache?) are going to stick around. So that leaves Coffey, MacDougal, Wright, and Lindblom to battle it out for two spots. Unless Lindblom is struggling by then, he should be kept, which sets up tough decisions on two veteran relievers that were guaranteed contracts. And that situation doesn’t even account for Shawn Tolleson in AA, Josh Wall in AAA, and Michael Antonini in AAA. Much less the likes of Nate Eovaldi as a potential contributor and Rubby De La Rosa in a few months.

At some point, a significant decision is going to have to be made, so the Dodgers are only delaying the inevitable.

Whatever the case may be, I just hope the decision is made based on what’s best for the team and not because the GM decided that the best course of action was to go 12 to 14 deep in the bullpen and neglect depth (or starters) at three or four positions.

Don Mattingly revealed that James Loney is a swing tinkerer.

About the last thing Dodgers manager Don Mattingly wants is Loney doing anything that will change his batting swing, which is Loney’s tendency.

For example, after going 3-for-11 during the three-game series in Milwaukee, Loney struck out in his first at-bat in Houston on Friday night and Mattingly immediately noticed a mechanical difference.

“I figured he must have taken a roll of quarters and gone to the local batting cage and somebody he knows there changed him,” Mattingly said of Loney, who grew up in Houston. “I had [hitting coach Dave Hansen] pull up that at-bat and one from Milwaukee and told James to go look at them. When he came back and said, ‘My bad,’ that’s when I knew he changed something.”

Well, this explains a lot, and it basically invalidates my analysis of his swing.

Guys who constantly tinker with their swings on their own are nightmares for coaches, because you can never get locked in to which adjustments he is or isn’t using at any given moment.

This was probably supposed to be a throwaway quote, but it’s important information to me.

—–

Ned Colletti wants to sign Andre Ethier to an extension when new ownership rolls into town.

“You know, I’ve talked to them a little bit about it so it’s on the map already,” Colletti told SiriusXM Radio. “And when everything gets settled in and people get a chance to think about a lot of different things, that’ll be one of the topics we do bring up. I’d love to keep him here. Of course, it takes more than the organization and more than me to get it done. It takes a lot of different people and factions that have a say in it, but hopefully he can be here for a long time.

“He’s had a great start. Except for a little bit of a blip when he had a bad knee last year, he’s been a very consistent player for us and somebody who does provide some protection for Matt [Kemp]. A couple of years ago it was the other way around in the order. But he’s somebody that we count on and somebody that’s been here really his whole Major League career. He started with Oakland, but he’s been a Dodger ever since he showed up in the big leagues, and if we can keep it that way, it’s fine with me.”

I’ve already given my general feeling on the extension thing, and it seems like this is more than likely to get done if the GM is motivated.

—–

Mattingly says Chad Billingsley‘s groin wasn’t to blame for his poor outing.

Even though Chad Billingsley was roughed up Sunday after complaining of groin discomfort his previous start, Dodgers manager Don Mattingly said the groin was not the reason for Billingsley’s bad outing.

“I’m pretty sure of that,” Mattingly said. “I talked to Chad today and he felt like the biggest thing with him is that they wrapped it and I don’t know if he wasn’t comfortable with it, but he wasn’t striding as far.

Didn’t seem like he was hurt to me either, he just appeared to lose the zone in the second inning and it was all downhill from there.

—–

Todd Coffey is coming back, which means Josh Lindblom‘s roster spot is in jeopardy once again.

Coffey said he expects to pitch in Minor League rehab games Wednesday and Friday, then be activated on Sunday, when the Dodgers will face the same roster dilemma they had on April 14, when they put Coffey on the disabled list to make room for the activation of Ted Lilly.

Lindblom is pretty obviously the 7th inning guy at this point, and the Dodgers are winning, so why screw that up in favor of a fungible veteran? We’ll find out soon.

I’ve already said what I needed to say on the subject.

In what I’m sure was sheer coincidence, it was revealed that Coffey had been dealing with knee trouble.

After the game Don Mattingly said Todd Coffey has been getting treatment on his knee

— Eric Stephen (@truebluela) April 14, 2012

Truly amazing that it didn’t seem to affect his full bore sprint from the pen.

Todd Coffey to the 15-day DL (right knee inflammation) to make room for Ted Lilly

— Eric Stephen (@truebluela) April 14, 2012

Basically, this move was made because they wanted to keep both Josh Lindblom and Jamey Wright. Still though, it’s amazing to me that they’d rather put Coffey on the DL than designate Wright, especially considering Lindblom is basically their seventh inning guy at this juncture.

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Besides laughing at people going insane over his blown save, Kenley Jansen‘s velocity was a hot topic.

Eric Stephen of True Blue LA got a quote from Don Mattingly saying that the problem may be mechanical again, but he’s not overly concerned.

Jansen’s velocity was also down, throwing between 89-91 MPH, hitting 92 on two pitches. But Mattingly didn’t sound worried.

“Kenley’s different. There have been times early on where he gets tentative or gets off kilter, and the ball doesn’t come out the same way. We’ll continue to pay attention to his mechanics. The ninth is different than the eighth, so we’ll pay attention to that too,” Mattingly said. “As long as Kenley is not hurt, then we’re not concerned.”

Tony Jackson of ESPN Los Angeles got a quote from Jansen revealing that he’s been under the weather a bit, and he also talked to Rick Honeycutt, who echoed Mattingly’s lack of concern.

Jansen has been battling a mild case of flu in recent days, which could have accounted for the velocity drop.

“I’ve been battling the flu, but that’s not an excuse at all,” Jansen said. “You still have to make good pitches and keep us in the game and try to help the team win. That is what it’s all about.”

Both manager Don Mattingly and pitching coach Rick Honeycutt noticed the slight dropoff, but neither seemed alarmed by it. Honeycutt said it might have been due to the cold weather or illness.

Actually, sickness could explain it, though seeing is believing.

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Jayson Stark of ESPN has a piece on the new ownership group of the Los Angeles Dodgers, and it warns that those expecting them to spend big may be sorely disappointed, primarily because that’s not Stan Kasten‘s style.

So do people within the industry see this man suddenly turning into a spend-a-holic who starts firing nine- and 10-year deals at whoever wants to take them? Heck, no.

“That’s not Stan Kasten’s M.O,” said one veteran agent. “I’m sure they’ll be a franchise that makes moves. But I’m also sure that when Stan makes decisions, it won’t be like the kind of decisions Mike Illitch makes.”

“When it looks like a sure thing, it ain’t,” said another prominent agent. “Look at the Nationals. Ted Lerner has more money than God, and look how long it took him to start handing out big contracts. And did he hand them out while Stan was there? No. It happened after he left. So I know everyone anticipates him spending wildly now. But I’m not so sure.”

So what can we learn from that history? Nobody in baseball has a better feel for that than Kasten’s longtime general manager in Atlanta, John Schuerholz.

“It’s fair to say this group is out to re-establish the great Dodger brand,” Schuerholz told Rumblings. “But how that translates into making decisions to spend big money on big-name free agents, I don’t think that’s automatic.”

Now would Schuerholz be surprised to see the Kasten/Magic Dodgers chasing the most ballyhooed free agents in the game? No, he “wouldn’t be surprised to see them do that,” he said.

“But I don’t think they’ll do it every day,” Schuerholz said. “I don’t think they’ll do it all the time. What I’m sure they’ll do is what Stan has always tried to do — build a rock-solid organization and build it largely around homegrown talent. And at the same time, I’m sure he won’t shy away from the right free agent. But I underline the word, ‘right.’”

“I don’t think Stan rolls the dice at anything,” Schuerholz said. “I don’t think he’s ever rolled the dice. Stan analyzes. He relies on his experience and his instincts … and he makes an analytical decision about what’s the right thing to do for the franchise.”

Analyzing?

This … this … this sounds wonderful.

How did I feel about Don Mattingly‘s decision making in the bottom of the fifth against the Padres yesterday?

Great decision by Mattingly, fuck stupid statistics like pitcher wins.

— Chad Moriyama (@ChadMoriyama) April 8, 2012

Wait, he brought in Wright.

— Chad Moriyama (@ChadMoriyama) April 8, 2012

Yeah, that basically sums up my thoughts on Mattingly’s managerial skills in yesterday’s game. Good idea, bad execution.

Up five runs to none in the bottom of the fifth inning, starter Chris Capuano was struggling mightily with his control. After getting a strikeout to begin the frame, he gave up a single, a walk, got a force out, and then walked the next two batters.

Now most managers would let their starter try to get the last out of the fifth inning in this scenario because of the vaunted pitcher win, but it’s an inherently stupid thing to let influence decision making since it’s a meaningless statistic, especially when the game is on the line.

As such, Mattingly made the right call by pulling Capuano, who had been iffy with his control all day (even by his own admission in the post-game interview), but negated that decision by bringing in Jamey Wright, who was essentially the last man to make an eight-man bullpen out of Spring Training.

If Jansen or Coffey or something do that, I can live with it. Wright is going to be in like independent league in 15 days.

— Chad Moriyama (@ChadMoriyama) April 8, 2012

That one out is the highest leverage situation of the game (or will lead to it) because it either keeps the game at a four-run lead or it starts a chain reaction that implodes the game for the Dodgers. As such, it’s a perfect opportunity to use Kenley Jansen, probably the best reliever in the pen, But even if that’s too unconventional, why not veterans like Todd Coffey or Matt Guerrier? That’s what the Dodgers are paying them for, isn’t it?

The decision was half right, but half right is still wrong.

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In transaction news, Carlos Monasterios was released by the team yesterday.

The Dodgers have released right-hander Carlos Monasterios, who pitched in 32 games for them in 2010 but has since required two elbow operations.

Monasterios, 26, was a Rule 5 Draft pick who went 3-5 with a 4.38 ERA in 2010, when he started 13 games and spent the entire season in the Major Leagues. But after making one start at Triple-A last year, he required Tommy John elbow reconstruction and missed the rest of the season.

He encountered further arm problems after reporting to Spring Training this year and at the end of March underwent surgery to relocate the ulna nerve.

He looked to be solid front-end bullpen guy, long man, and spot starter, but injuries really derailed a potentially decent career.

Kenley Jansen

Kenley Jansen is the epitome of an under-appreciated fireman in the pen, putting out any fire, no matter the size, intensity, or probability for continuation.

Pitching full-time for just about three years, the 24-year-old fireballer fanned an out-of-this-world 16.10 batters per nine innings last season. Yes, he walked a few too many (4.36), but he has plenty of time to improve his control, especially since he’s still learning  to be a pitcher.

A 1.74 FIP, 2.06 tERA, 1.59 SIERA, and 1.04 WHIP are just nails, and Kenley handled both righties and lefties with ease (.156/.264/.200/.464 and .163/.269/.194/.463, respectively). His year was even more impressive when you consider two things: he had three atrocious outings that skewed already amazing numbers, and he battled injury and a heart murmur (which reoccurred this Spring but doesn’t appear to be serious).

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Kenley should always be used in the most pressing situation, not in your conventional ninth inning, three-run-lead save situation. Bring him in to face the heart of the opponent’s lineup with the game close regardless of whether it’s the seventh or eighth or ninth. That’s what firemen do: they put out the most dangerous fires.

Oh, and just for kicks, let’s quickly look at his July and September from last year:

July – 10 IP, 6 Baserunners, 17 K/4 BB, 0 HR

September – 13.2 IP, 11 Baserunners, 32 K/3 BB, 0 HR

Just sick.

Javy Guerra

Javy Guerra entered 2011 as just another arm in the Dodgers pool of pitchers. He closed out the campaign as the closer, and with many fans perceiving him to be a better pitcher than he actually is. Guerra is good, but not great, and he’s the closer by virtue of everybody else before him in 2011 being hurt and/or terrible.

Guerra’s minor league career was solid, with a lot of strikeouts and a lot of walks. He debuted in May, and proceeded to put up a two-month period featuring a shiny ERA and weak peripherals (2.35 in 15.1 innings, with 9 K, 5 BB, and 22 baserunners allowed). Oddly enough, he posted a .327 BABIP against during this time.

The next three months don’t do much to tell us how dominant Guerra could ever be, as he allowed 36 baserunners in 31.1 innings. He walked 13, allowed two homers, and fanned 29 in this time frame. Again, not atrocious numbers, but nothing to get overly excited about, especially considering his BABIP in this period was .232 against.

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Guerra, at just 26 years old, is definitely a guy I’d like to have in the pen. He has upside, is cheap, and has shown the ability in the minors, and for stretches of time in the bigs, to miss bats. In fact, I want a guy like him to be the closer while the better pitcher – Jansen – is placed in higher leverage situations and asked to get the opponent’s better offensive players out

I just don’t want Guerra, based off of the outdated Saves statistic, to get more credit than Kenley. I’m a simple man with simple desires.

Scott Elbert

Heading into 2011 with the reputation as an injury-prone, command lacking, questionable makeup having potential bust, Scott Elbert ended the year by cementing himself as a fixture in the Dodgers remade pen. Taking over the left-handed reliever role from the also injury-riddled Hong Chih Kuo, Elbert fanned 9.18 per nine innings while issuing 3.78 BB/9 IP, an improvement on his small sample size MLB career and lengthier minor league tenure.

Elbert has always had great stuff and posted big strikeout numbers in the minors, but could never get a footing in The Show. He was only given 26.1 innings in his previous three stints with the big league club to impress in, and certainly didn’t, but the potential was always there if he could harness his stuff and stay healthy.

—–

With that great promise coming to fruition in ’11, and room to still grow and improve, Scott will be expected to shut down lefties, who only hit a putrid .191/.267/.227/.494 against him last year. Elbert can certainly hold his own against righties (.255/.344/.328/.672 in 2011), but like most southpaws, he’s much, much better against his hitting brethren. Elbert will probably be the only lefty in the pen to start 2012, and with upside and talent, his future in Los Angeles is finally clear.

Ned Colletti’s Motley Crew Of Veteran Goodness

Mike MacDougal is back on a guaranteed (!) one-year deal following a shiny ERA, terrible everything else season. In 57 innings that had other teams frothing at the mouth, Mike whiffed just 6.47 per nine while issuing 4.58 free passes each nine he took the mound.

But hey, he had a 2.02 ERA and was an experienced vet. That totally makes up for the 4.33 tERA, inability to miss bats, and the taking up of a roster spot that would be better served on Josh Lindblom.

—–

Matt Guerrier … exists. 6.78 K/9, 3.39 BB/9, 3.43 FIP, and all.

—–

Todd Coffey received a guaranteed one-year deal, and coming off of a 3.41 FIP season, he could actually be useful if used against righties only. Coffey was death to right-handers in 2011, allowing just a .193/.250/.255/.505 slash line against while whiffing three times as many as he walked. Of course, conversely, lefties murdered him, mashing to the tune of a .338/.404/.416/.820 line, and they drew nine walks while only going down swinging 11 times.

So yeah. Use him against righties, and never let him try to sprint his guts out to face Carlos Gonzalez or Lance Berkman or even Juan Pierre‘s limp bat, for that matter.

All of that said, would I have signed Coffey? No. But I’m not Ned Colletti.

—–

Ronald Belisario is back! After he serves a suspension for a drug-related incident, that is. He’ll almost never be able to replicate his BABIP-fueled 2009 where he fanned over 8.0/9 IP, but hey, another bullpen arm could never hurt.

Granted, he’s out of options, so when he does return, someone has to go, and anyone not named MacDougal should not be replaced by Belisario. Heck, not even Coffey, who’s been pretty decent against righties for a long time.

But seriously. Get rid of MacDougal.

—–

Blake Hawksworth, once he returns from injury, must be on the 25-man roster.

Why? Because his sister is Erin Hawksworth.

Enough said.

After the surprise signing of Todd Coffey, the Los Angeles Dodgers had a decision to make in regards to the 40-man roster, and Ken Gurnick reports that the Dodgers decided to designate Russ Mitchell for assignment.

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In other news, Blake DeWitt was designated for assignment by the Chicago Cubs, and while he hardly set the world on fire (or even made a fire), I do remember him playing good defense with a passable bat, and the Dodgers basically have zero depth at third base.

That said, Russ Mitchell could play third base and they choose to designate him over Trent Oeltjen and friends, so I’m guessing they aren’t going to bother giving him a looksy.

As I mentioned earlier, the Los Angeles Dodgers signed right-handed relief pitcher Todd Coffey to a one-year dear that will carry a team option for 2013.

Dylan Hernandez of the Los Angeles Times reports that Coffey’s 2012 salary will be $1 million and will come with a $300k buyout clause on the 2013 team option. If the team option is exercised, it will be worth $2.5 million.

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Fat jokes aside, he’s a middling relief pitcher who carries a 4.08 career ERA and a 4.17 career FIP, both of which represent his skill level, past and present. His strikeout rate is average (~17%-18%) and his walk rate is average (~7%-8%), basically everything is around average or below average.

So why sign him? Probably to eat innings (har har) and because his career platoon split looks like this:

Coffey has 2.0 career WAR, so it’s not exactly a stretch that he’ll end up in the 0.2-0.4 WAR range in 2012 when looking at his season-by-season numbers.

Little reason to get excited, little reason to criticize.

It’s about a neutral move, which is all too appropriate for Coffey.

—–

As Mike Petriello points out though, it will cost the Dodgers somebody off the 40-man roster, and we all seem to agree that it’ll probably be Trent Oeltjen.

Los Angeles Dodgers have signed right-handed reliever/competitive eater Todd Coffey to a one-year deal worth $1.3 million and a club option for 2013.

You think I’m joking about the food subsidies? Absolutely not.

I’ll analyze the deal in a bit, but for now, let’s just make fun of him being fat.

Thanks.