Yesterday, Don Mattingly had what I call a “Wu-Tang moment”, inspired by the “When Keeping It Real Goes Wrong” skit on Chappelle’s Show.

Humorous? Yes, but what it mean to me is that Mattingly basically dropped all the fronts and simply went in on the Dodgers players and front office in surprisingly pointed comments.

“We’re in last place in the National League West,” the skipper said. “Last year at this point, we played a lineup with nobody in it, but they fought, they competed and battled every inch. I felt like we got more out of our ability. I don’t know if that team was tougher. I don’t know why and it was only for a short period of time.

“Part of it is the mixture of competitiveness. It’s not just putting an All-Star team out there and the All-Star team wins. You try to find that balance of a team that’s got a little grit and fight, and has enough talent to get there also. It’s not all grit and not talent that gets there, and it’s not all talent and no grit. It’s a mixture of both.”
Mattingly wouldn’t say Ethier was guilty of anything. Instead, the manager said what he’s looking for.

“There’s a touch of a difference between saying you’re giving your best effort and you’re willing to fight for something,” Mattingly said. “Some guys go to another level for that price, will do whatever it takes to win a game … that inside, you’re not beating me today. There’s something there you can’t measure with Sabermetrics. You can’t put a number on it.”

The media expected saber-friendly bloggers like myself to be offended by his comments, but I don’t necessarily disagree with him. Yes, “grit” is practically a meme amongst bloggers, but his points about focus and effort and what not are all part of the evaluation process, and it’s the job of the manager and front office to get the best out of their players in anyway they can.

If this is part of it, then so be it. But it remains to be see if it’ll actually be an effective tactic or not.

—–

A lot of focus was put on Mattingly’s comments and how they related to Andre Ethier, who was benched against a right-hander and called out by Mattingly.

“For me, today, I’m putting out my lineup that I feel is going to be the most competitive and going to compete the hardest,” he said.

Asked if Ethier is no longer a player he automatically writes into the lineup every day, Mattingly said, “Well, he wasn’t today.”

Does Mattingly think Ethier won’t fight?

“I can’t really say that,” he said. “I don’t really want to say that, but we’ve got to compete.”

Asked if he was dissatisfied with Ethier’s toughness and mental approach, Mattingly said, “I want to put a club out there that I think for the long range that you can trust, that’s going to fight and compete the whole day.”

Has Mattingly not seen that from Ethier at times?

“Anything like that would need to be a conversation in-house,” he said.

Mattingly said he has had several conversations with Ethier about this over the years. After the 2011 season, Mattingly estimated that Ethier gave away 100 at-bats because of his inability to control his emotions. Asked if Ethier still had similar issues, Mattingly said, “Yeah, at times.”

Remember that hilarious stare-down from the other day? As funny as that was, it was a prime example of him giving away an at-bat (and his spot on team for the rest of that game), which may be part of the reason for this outburst. Either way, it’s certainly an example of what Mattingly is talking about.

Ethier, for his part, took the high road.

“Yeah, I take offense to that, without approaching me first,” said Ethier. “Other than that, I show up every day and find ways to compete, to work hard whether I’m going good or bad. Just like everyone here, I have to get a grip and a handle on what’s gone on. We can never lose hope to get back on top of the division. That’s my approach every day.”

“I don’t think there’s ever a question,” he said. “I made a commitment to what we’re doing. We all have tough times. We just have got to figure out what’s going on and battle through it. Quitting is not an option.”

People reading these comments and then citing Ethier’s stat line in comparison with Matt Kemp and others are sort of missing the boat on this, I think.

Normally, I wouldn’t support this kind of stuff, but I think this situation is more nuanced than “Ethier hitting now, so Mattingly dumb”, as it’s not just Mattingly that doesn’t support Ethier.

Over the years, basically everybody I’ve talked to that’s been close to the team has not exactly come away with a glowing impression of Ethier, and it wasn’t Mattingly that tried to eat the contract of a recently-extended Ethier just this past winter.

Mike Petriello affirms the same general feeling about Ethier, as well as the trade aspect of it.

I don’t know what happened with Ethier behind the scenes, though anyone surprised that he’s got a reputation as being difficult hasn’t been paying attention — and yes, they did try to trade him over the winter.

So while I’m not all that sure what happened behind closed doors, and I’m not saying it’s absolutely justified, I am leaving open the possibility that this was a necessary action due to something that might be happening behind the scenes.

More to the point, I don’t think commenting about Ethier is going to lead the front office to fire him.

—–

That said, what probably will get him fired is Mattingly effectively calling out Ned Colletti and Stan Kasten for roster construction.

When Mattingly spoke with reporters in Milwaukee on Wednesday, as the manager of a last-place team with the highest payroll in baseball history, he said this: “It’s not just all, ‘Let’s go put an All-Star team out there and play games, and the team with the All-Star team wins.’ … All grit and no talent is not going to get you there, and all talent and no grit is not going to get you there. There’s got to be a mixture of both.”

Mattingly benched outfielder Andre Ethier on Wednesday, explaining the decision thusly: “For me, today, I’m putting out my lineup that I feel is going to be the most competitive and going to compete the hardest.”

That is two “I,” one “my” and one “me” in an industry that emphasizes “us” and “we.” Players and the front office notice those words.

In stark contrast, this is how Mattingly explained the weekend decision to demote catcher Tim Federowicz rather than clear a roster spot by cutting either infielder Luis Cruz or catcher Ramon Hernandez: “That was the move that the organization thought was the best.”

And, as the Dodgers’ bullpen lost all three games last weekend in Atlanta, Mattingly appeared to point out how the front office stashed surplus starters in the bullpen, forcing the team to cut veteran relievers who might have been useful

“We had guys get away early who seemed to fit,” Mattingly said.

The disagreement over roster decisions was never more obvious than the decision to send down Tim Federowicz, who had been playing as the primary backup over Ramon Hernandez. Unlike the other stuff, this is a very real problem when the manager and front officer are thinking in very different direction.

On one hand, the disconnect is unhealthy and it seems like a death wish by Mattingly for him to rip his bosses. On the other hand, if it’s a fight between Mattingly and Colletti, I’m in Mattingly’s corner everyday of the week.

—–

But will all this really get him fired? One GM thinks so, but neither Kasten nor Colletti will be in town until Friday, which leaves me thinking two things: 1) Mattingly already knows he’s gonna get fired 2) neither Kasten nor Colletti are as sensitive to his critique as the media makes it out to be and don’t really care.

Either way, though, Mattingly appears to be safe for the upcoming series.

Don Mattingly will be managing the Dodgers on Friday when they open a three-game series at home against the St. Louis Cardinals, according to two people familiar with the team’s plans.

Not exactly a ringing endorsement, but certainly not one that seems to confirm the belief that Mattingly already knew he was fired when making his comments.

So it seems he’ll stick around a bit longer, for better or worse, and the only thing I’m certain of at this point is that a lot of words will be written about this situation.

—–

All of this is to say I’m not sure exactly how significant of an issue the ranting on the team is going to affect Mattingly, but I do think that the disconnect between him and the front office is troublesome and will likely be the cause for his undoing with the Dodgers.

I’ve said again and again that my continued backing of him was based on how he handled relations with the players and the clubhouse, as it certainly wasn’t because of his decision-making acumen. Therefore, my support for him, meaningless as it may be, is actively in doubt now, as he may or may not have just lost the players. Additionally, even if he is right, it seems to be causing more distractions than anything else, which is rarely a net positive.

With that said, the final chapter is yet to be written, and Mattingly seems to have taken a gamble to see if a different approach will work to pull the Dodgers out of whatever horrid funk they’re in. We’ll see how it plays out with the team going forward, and we’ll see whether or not Mattingly deciding to keep it real will cause his tenure with the team to finally go wrong.

Tom Garfinkel, President and CEO of the Padres, spoke with season-ticket holders about the Zack Greinke/Carlos Quentin brawl, and he placed the blame on Greinke for the incident.

While somewhat deluded, it’s not all that surprising. However, also included on the tape that Jeff Passan of Yahoo! Sports acquired is audio of him essentially mocking Greinke (who has social anxiety disorder) as autistic.

“He threw at him on purpose, OK?” Garfinkel told an estimated crowd of 40 or 50 at Petco Park on Friday, a day after the fight. “That’s what happened. They can say 3-and-2 count, 2-1 game, no one does that. Zack Greinke is a different kind of guy. Anyone seen ‘Rain Man’? He’s a very smart guy.”

What a class act.

The ignorance of equating autism and anxiety is astounding, and it speaks to the general notion that anybody not considered “normal” between the ears can be generalized with a catch-all “head case” pejorative.

I expect as much from players and managers, but from the President and CEO? Disgusting. One would think they would at least know better.

Garfinkel went on to apologize to Stan Kasten and Greinke … but not really:

“I was emotional the day after the game and regrettably, while defending our player, I said some things I shouldn’t have, especially as it relates to Zack Greinke,” Garfinkel told Yahoo! Sports. “I was out of line and I apologize.

The thing is though, he doesn’t care. Remember, this was a private meeting with a group of season-ticket holders, so he only cares that he got caught.

I mean, he said as much himself:

“This is my opinion, and I can’t say it publicly,” Garfinkel told the crowd, “but I guess this is public, so please don’t tweet it out. We’re in the trust tree here, in the nest.

In his apology, he doesn’t specifically address what was wrong about his rant. Rather, he just gives a stock ‘sorry’ because he’s in damage control mode.

As if to pile on with his ignorance, he goes on to literally make up justifications for Quentin charging the mound, blames Greinke for getting hurt, and makes a comment in opposition to what Quentin has said to the media.

“Obviously, I don’t condone fighting and I wish it wouldn’t have happened. You never want to see any player get hurt.”

“I don’t know about you guys, but I’m 6-3, 225,” Garfinkel told the ticket holders. “If Carlos Quentin was running at me, I would not put my shoulder down.”

I got into a few arguments over this logic on Twitter, but to me, arguing this is completely asinine. Basically, he’s criticizing how Greinke choose to defend himself.

Why … why is the person being attacked responsible for the damage done to him?

“I mean, yeah, he got punched in the face. But your honor, why didn’t the victim turn his head away to lessen the damage?”

Sweet argument.

Then there’s this point lie he told, which Passan called him on:

Garfinkel’s certainty about the purpose of the pitch stemmed from information he received about Greinke’s predilection to avoid pitching inside as well as the belief in the Padres’ front office that the count and situation didn’t necessarily absolve him from intentionally hitting Quentin. Garfinkel told the crowd he saw a heat map, which highlights the locations a pitcher has targeted in the past, and that it showed over the last three years Greinke had not thrown a single pitch on a 3-2 count to right-handed hitters on the inner half of the plate.

The heat map was misleading. PITCHf/x data provided by Baseball Prospectus’ Dan Brooks and Harry Pavlidis shows of the 219 full-count pitches Greinke threw to right-handers from 2010-2012, 81 were on the inner half of the plate. While the 37 percent inside rate is among the bottom one-third among starting pitchers, the data shows, Greinke is nowhere near the unlikeliest to throw there on full counts – and had gone there plenty of times, both in and out of the strike zone, in recent years.

Welp, so much for that.

Also amusing was this part of the speech, in which he blames Greinke for not starting a dialogue with Quentin:

Greinke also knew the potential consequences of hitting Quentin, Garfinkel told the crowd. A threat for retribution had been relayed to him following the second time he plunked Quentin with a pitch, in 2009.

“When Zack Greinke threw at his head a couple times, [Quentin] let it be known through teammates and intermediaries and others that if he does that again, he’s going to have a problem,” Garfinkel said. “This was a couple years ago. So Zack was very aware of that and Zack never apologized and never told him, ‘Hey, I didn’t mean to throw at you. It got away from me.’ Whatever. This was a couple years ago. He knew darn well that was going [to happen].”

Let me get this straight, Tom. You insult the guy for being “Rain Man“, but you expect the same person, who actually has social anxiety disorder, to open up a dialogue with a rival who’s pissed at him?

Again, sound logic. Seems like Tom really thought this one through.

Perhaps dumbest of all, though, is his admission that neither the organization nor Quentin knows what Greinke said to Quentin prior to him charging the mound:

Following the brawl and his ejection, Quentin insinuated that Greinke had said something to him, prompting him to charge the mound, and that it “was the final straw.” Garfinkel said neither he nor Quentin is certain of what Greinke said, and that even some people in the Padres’ baseball-operations department who can read lips were unsure.

“We don’t know what he said,” Garfinkel said. “I asked Carlos. He doesn’t know what he said. I do know that, I mean, everybody saw the tape. Everybody saw what happened. He didn’t say, ‘I’m sorry, I didn’t mean to hit you.’ He threw his glove down, stuck his chest out.”

1) He threw his glove down after Quentin had started charging him. You have to be seriously delusional to dispute this … which is why he’s disputing it.

2)

Carlos Quentin to media: “I charged Greinke because of what he said to me.” Padres CEO to fans: “Carlos doesn’t know what Greinke said.” OK.

— Molly Knight (@molly_knight) April 18, 2013

Oops.

Way to call your own player’s truthfulness into question.

—–

So not only did Garfinkel represent the Padres poorly by showing off his ignorance, lack of rationality, and by outright lying, but he also indirectly called Quentin a liar by revealing that nobody has any idea what Greinke said, despite that being used as justification for fighting him.

So if there was any doubt that all of this was nothing more than the result of a Quentin temper tantrum (he once ended his own season with one), and that Quentin’s excuses for the incident after the fact are all baloney, then there shouldn’t be anymore. None of them knows what happened, and they can’t even get their stories straight, but they’ll go to the media saying they know the reason stuff went down, they’ll take offensive jabs at the opposition, and they’ll lie to their fanbase to justify it all.

Pathetic.

“If you are what you say you are…”

—–

Dodgers Now: Bill Shaikin reveals that the Dodgers are no longer exclusively talking with Fox, as they’ve met with Time Warner now.

The Dodgers and Time Warner Cable have met to discuss a potential deal for the team’s television rights, according to two people familiar with the talks but not authorized to comment on them.

The Dodgers are considering at least three options for their next television home: the Prime Ticket cable channel owned by Fox Sports, the SportsNet cable channel owned by TWC or a new channel owned by the team.

Not sure whether this is a positive or a negative in terms of potential television money, but I figure competition rarely generates a lower return.

Baseball Prospectus: Maury Brown had an interview with Stan Kasten at the Winter Meetings.

—–

Los Angeles Times: Bill Shaikin warns about the perils of long-term big-money contracts.

But…

They do take players to 2017, and beyond. If the Dodgers win in 2013, well, who cares?

…that’s always the rub. If they win, even if the players start to implode in the context of their contracts, it’s justifiable. Flags fly forever, after all.

But they have to win.

FanGraphs: Jeff Sullivan reminds us that even if the Dodgers literally had an unlimited payroll and bought every top player they could on the free agent market, it still wouldn’t have resulted in a division winner in 2012.

Smarts still matter. The limit though becomes roster spots.

—–

FanGraphs: Dave Cameron questions why people assume prospects are always unknown quantities but are fine assuming that veterans always provide consistent results.

Wil Myers is a risk, but so is James Shields. So is Albert Pujols. So is Justin Verlander. So is everyone.

When we start using labels like “prospect” or “proven veteran” to describe players, we lose that reality. Myers and Shields both have the chance to be good, bad, or anything in between. Let’s not let the terms we use to describe player types obscure that fact. The Royals didn’t trade a lottery ticket for a paycheck; they traded a few lottery tickets for a scratch-off card. They probably did reduce their overall performance risk for 2013, but it didn’t go to zero. Let’s not pretend that we know so much about projecting the future of Major League players that we create an artificial divide where one does not exist.

Prospects come with uncertainty, but so do Major League players. Everyone is a risk. You weigh that risk against the potential rewards, and you figure out which trade-offs are worth making. Once you cross over into treating some players as non-risks, though, you’ve stopped evaluating players properly. And then you make trades like the one the Royals just made.

This is precisely how I’ve thought since I started blogging. Everybody has a percentage of relative success, and things can always go against that, but what you want to try and do is play the odds as best you can and hopefully the cards go your way.

So a popular question lately has been: “What the hell happened to Shohei Otani?”

In short? Nothing, because despite whatever speculation there had been about MLB teams technically having no need to respect NPB exclusivity rights, like I said in a previous post about the situation, I see no upside for an MLB team to just barge in and violate the status quo.

Basically, the latest on the Otani front is that the Nippon Ham Fighters are meeting with his parents and what not, but not him, personally. There have been zero contract talks, so while the media is saying a bunch of stuff (and editorializing a bit), it doesn’t seem like there’s anything substantial going on that would be worth reporting if it wasn’t for the nature of this situation.

As I said, just wait.

—–

Speaking of potential signings out of Asia, Stan Kasten is saying that they might not sign Hyun Jin Ryu until after the Winter Meetings, which end only a few days before the deadline.

According to Kasten, the Dodgers might not determine whether to sign Ryu until after they see what pitchers they can acquire in trade or free agency by the time the winter meetings end Dec. 6.

“That’s a decision that doesn’t have to be made until after the winter meetings are over,” Kasten said.

Doubt this means anything since Scott Boras tends to drag situations like these out to the bitter end to extract every penny he can anyway.

I expect Ryu to sign and deserve to be in the rotation over Aaron Harang and Ted Lilly but start the year in AAA anyway because the former two are veterans or whatever garbage excuse they will use.

—–

Mark Saxon of ESPN Los Angeles reports that the Dodgers are out on Torii Hunter.

Source: Dodgers out on Torii Hunter

— Mark Saxon (@markasaxon) November 13, 2012

Good.

Did anybody really think he made sense?

—–

In what is probably the best news of the off-season, the Dodgers went on an international scout hiring spree.

Colletti said the hiring spree is probably over after essentially acquiring the international scouting staff of the Seattle Mariners. Two weeks ago the Dodgers hired Bob Engle as vice president of international scouting and Monday they brought on six of his Mariners staff — Pedro Avila, Gene Grimaldi, Patrick Guerrero, Pat Kelly, Jamey Storvick and Mike Tosar.

The Dodgers on Monday also announced the additions of Josh Bard as special assistant, player personnel and professional scouts Willie Fraser and Scott Groot. Former Dodgers third baseman Bill Mueller, who served as special assistant, player personnel, will become a full-time professional scout.

“The fact the Dodgers were dead last in international signings, that was hard to believe,” said Kasten. “For me, it’s a priority, and not just signing players as the end result, but getting the people to sign the players.”

“We’ve doubled the size of the [international] scouting operation,” said Colletti. “A couple years ago when we traded veterans, we looked at other organizations and saw a lot of the successful teams got a lot of players not born in the U.S. It was time for us to get back invested in it.”

For me, this is probably the best part about the new ownership thus far.

Matt Kemp left Tuesday’s game in Colorado after smashing into the center field wall, somehow managing to stay in, and soon thereafter diving for a ball and landing awkwardly. If you’re so inclined, GIFs of the collision can be seen here. Tests revealed no concussion or concussion symptoms, and Matt walked away from the incident with nothing more than a bruised left knee. He returned to the lineup a few days after the frightening incident.

—–

Kenley Jansen was unavailable for the series in Colorado after experiencing recurring issues with his heart, which felled him for a month or so in 2011 and earlier in 2012 during Spring Training. These new issues are related to the old ones, reports Dylan Hernandez. The Dodgers and Jansen await test results, as his season could be over.

—–

Chad Billingsley‘s season also hangs in the balance as he awaits what could be season-ending surgery. These fears were expressed earlier in the week by Stan Kasten. Bills’ right elbow was treated with an injection of platelet-rich plasma in an effort to avoid missing the stretch run. Tommy John surgery seems like a possibility if our worst fears come to fruition.

—–

Scott Elbert was placed on the 15-day DL once again with left elbow inflammation. Shawn Tolleson was recalled to take his place. Don Mattingly is cautiously optimistic that Elbert could return when the 15-day period concludes.

—–

Matt Guerrier was activated from the 60-day DL, sending Josh Wall back to AAA and Dee Gordon from the 15-day DL to the 60-day DL in the process. Gordon won’t be gone for long though, as he is eligible to return now that rosters have expanded.

—–

Alfredo Silverio was transferred to the 60-day DL in order to free up a spot on the 40-man roster to allow for John Ely‘s call-up. Silverio is on the DL after suffering multiple injuries in a car crash earlier this year.

—–

In minor league injury news, Arismendy Ozoria, Luis Vasquez, Mike Antonini, Jarret Martin, Aaron Miller, Greg Wilborn, Casio Grider, Charlie Mirabal, Bobby Coyle, and Tyler Henson were all placed on the 7-day DL, while a host of others – most notably Chris Reed and Bobby Abreu – were activated from the 7-day DL.

Mike Scioscia’s Tragic Illness: Even though he’s away from home right now, I think Mike Petriello comes away from the trade with the right approach.

So how am I feeling about it today? I think Gonzalez is going to be an incredible fit in LA, especially considering that reports of his demise in Boston seem overblown (he was outstanding last year and has been very good for much of this year after a slow start) and that he never seemed to want to leave Southern California in the first place. It’s a high price to pay, but if he is what we think he is – and don’t forget, there was little available in the first base market next year, so if you’re spending money, this is how you do it – and the team becomes a consistent contender, I think it’ll be a price we can live with.

And if not? The next decade could get ugly, fast. For now, I’m cautiously optimistic, but mainly excited for the rest of the season.

I’m the same. Hopeful, but wary for reasons that I believe are legitimate. Far too many Dodgers fans pretending this is highway robbery in our favor, in my opinion.

Dodger Thoughts: Jon Weisman invokes Pedro Martinez for Delino DeShields.

The chances of De La Rosa becoming one of the greatest pitchers of all time might be slim, but De La Rosa doesn’t have to become the second Pedro to represent a major loss for the Dodgers. He could just be really good, while Gonzalez apes DeShields’ decline.

Like I said, I’m hungry for a World Series title, and I’m not saying the risk of trading De La Rosa won’t be worth it. Don’t misunderstand me: The Dodgers need a player like Gonzalez, who boosts them at their weakest position. I even believe that a move back to his Southern California roots and away from the Red Sox maelstrom could revitalize him.

All I’m saying is, short of Clayton Kershaw, the trade of any other pitcher besides De La Rosa would have left me more comfortable.

Not sure I agree with the people flipping out on him, especially if the Dodgers can’t upgrade their rotation significantly in the coming years. However, I think Adrian Gonzalez is a far better player and Rubby De La Rosa, while one of my favorites, won’t get to ace level.

Sports Illustrated: Jay Jaffe acknowledges the risk and the reward, saying that if nothing else it makes the season compelling.

All in all, it’s a dizzying deal that could affect not only the outcome of this year’s NL playoff races, but also could turn the Dodgers into the NL West’s powerhouse for years to come, with an enviable middle of the order starring Kemp, Gonzalez, Ramirez and Ethier. Or it could blow up in the team’s collective face, saddling the Dodgers with unproductive players signed to long-term deals, and hampering their roster flexibility much as it did these Red Sox.

Given their surrender of two top young arms, and the massive savings — and saving face — that the deal offered Boston, the Dodgers should have come away with far more than $12 million in salary discounts. That they didn’t puts virtually all of the risk on them, but it makes for a compellingly aggressive play in a playoff race that remains wide open.

True Blue LA: Eric Stephen notes that the team is headed for the luxury tax.

Dodgers Now: Stan Kasten says they aren’t maxed out yet though.

If the Dodgers can add $260 million to their payroll in one trade — and close to a half-billion dollars in four months — is there a limit to their spending?

“Somewhere, I suppose,” Chairman Mark Walter said Saturday.

And where might that limit be?

“I haven’t found it yet,” President Stan Kasten said. “I’ll let you know when we get there.”

Not sure how much of that is rhetoric, but I think we’ll see in the 2013 off-season.

FanGraphs: Dave Cameron thinks it doesn’t make sense from a baseball perspective but that it might make sense if the Dodgers make a deep run into the playoffs due to financials.

From a purely baseball standpoint, this investment doesn’t make sense. Gonzalez isn’t valuable enough to make him worth taking on the albatross contracts of Crawford and Beckett, and the Dodgers almost certainly could have gotten a better bang for their buck in free agency this winter. However, making moves this winter won’t get people interested in the Dodgers in the same way that a deep playoff run this year will.

I’m getting a lot of similar comments on Twitter, so I know this isn’t a rare opinion, but I have to wonder how legitimate the train of thought is. Dodgers fans show up regardless of how the team is doing, and the only reason attendance plummeted last year was because of a fan boycott of Frank McCourt. Even with all the turmoil, they were sixth in attendance last year, and this year they’re already back up to third. As such, I don’t buy the argument that they needed to do this during the season to make the playoffs otherwise fans wouldn’t come back and they wouldn’t make money. If the tens of millions from potential playoff revenue is going to make or break a team with billions of dollars looming, then there are bigger problems here.

Also, I don’t buy that this is to create buzz for a media deal. We’re all speculating, but logically I don’t see why cable companies, who negotiate deals like this all the time, would be swayed off their valuation due to a small sample size and not take into account the big 15-to-25 year picture. It’s already rumored to be in the $8 billion range, so how much higher could it go? Maybe they are that dumb, I dunno, but it seems iffy to assume so.

There’s no getting around the fact that the Dodgers likely just paid $20 for a gallon of milk. Given the prices everyone else is paying for milk, that seems pretty silly. If you happen to have lots of $20 bills and no milk, however, and there’s only one guy selling milk in your immediate vicinity, maybe you just complain about price gouging and hand over the $20. Depending on just how many $20s the Dodgers ownership has, this might not end up being quite as nuts as it looks on the surface.

Or, maybe I’m just over-thinking all of this, and the Dodgers just made a horrible, horrible trade. I’m honestly not sure.

Maybe, but I can’t see this trade destroying the team down the road. It might make for an inferior roster, but as long as they continue to spend, the team will be competitive. I’d just rather have to go through as little big money decline phases as possible.

ESPN: Buster Olney names his winners and losers … with the Dodgers on both.

Winners: The Dodgers of 2012

They are markedly better today than they were before this deal. Adrian Gonzalez is perfect for their lineup, their lineup balance, their defense and their ballpark, and he knows the division from his many years with the Padres. Beckett might be energized, and he gets to shift out of one of the best-hitting divisions to one of the worst.

Winners: Magic Johnson, Stan Kasten and the rest of the Dodgers’ ownership group

In less than four months, these owners have managed to completely rebrand the franchise, and, even if the Dodgers don’t make the playoffs this year, they’ve set themselves up for a major bounce forward in attendance and interest and team success in 2013. The city might throw them a parade even if they don’t win the World Series because, ding-dong, the Frank McCourt era is over.

Losers: The Dodgers of 2017

The team’s stunning spending spree feels good today, but Los Angeles has set itself up to have a roster loaded with aging stars in about five years — Matt Kemp, Gonzalez, Crawford and Andre Ethier all have contracts that run through that season. By then, the Dodgers’ farm system should be replenished, and the club’s ownership should have the resources to pave over that type of problem in the way the Yankees have — and, in any event, Dodgers fans won’t have to worry about that for a while.

ESPN: Keith Law takes a good now and bad later approach as well.

This deal could end up looking good for both sides, better for the Dodgers in the very short term but much better for the Red Sox in the long term. Boston enters this winter with a new financial lease on life, freeing the Sox up to spend in a weak free-agent market or perhaps to take on a large contract someone else would like to move (Cliff Lee? Justin Upton?).

They’re also looking at a pretty interesting group of position-player prospects racing up the system, led by Xander Bogaerts, who has improved his defense at shortstop this year and might defy earlier expectations and stay at the position. That potential for an inexpensive core should help Boston avoid a similar tangle of large contracts in the near future, just at a point when the Dodgers are facing a financial quagmire and roster crunch of their own.

Baseball executives are chiming in on the trade, basically questioning what the Dodgers are doing.

Rival exec on #Dodgers: “If you had $250M to spend, is this how you’d do it?”

— Ken Rosenthal (@Ken_Rosenthal) August 25, 2012

Rival execs are wondering why LADs didn’t simply say to BOS: We’ll take your bad contracts, but we’re not giving you any prospects of note.

— Buster Olney (@Buster_ESPN) August 25, 2012

NL exec view:”The Dodgers so wanted Gonzalez they took Crawford and Beckett’s money and traded two great arms to get him.”

— Peter Gammons (@pgammo) August 25, 2012

While I don’t necessarily disagree with their assessment, one has to wonder how much of this is legit and how much of this is just being jealous.

Via Vin Scully Is My Homeboy

With the Dodgers finalizing the transfer of ownership from Frank McCourt to Guggenheim Partners yesterday, the new owners held a press conference today to answer questions and make statements about the state of the team.

It went well.

“We’re not going to gouge the fans just because we paid a nice sum for this franchise,” Johnson said, disclosing that general parking would come down from $15 to $10. “We don’t want the fans to think because we wrote a big check [$2 billion], we’re going to stop writing checks for talent. We don’t want people to think we’re short on money now. That’s not the case.”

In what is a solid public relations move, Magic Johnson announced that the team would reduce parking prices.

Most importantly though, he says that they will pay for talent. Will they just throw money at the situation though?

No, says Stan Kasten.

“We have to make a [scouting and development] commitment nationally and, more importantly, internationally.”

Stan Kasten on the Dodgers payroll: “Can’t give you a number, but we’ll be in on every major free agent.”

— Molly Knight (@molly_knight) May 2, 2012

How about concerns that Mark Walter will meddle in personnel decisions like Frank McCourt did from time to time?

Walter on Stan Kasten: “It would be incredibly stupid of me to tell him how to run a baseball team.” #dodgers

— Bill Shaikin (@BillShaikin) May 3, 2012

How about the team’s image with fans and the public?

“I especially liked what Magic said about not having to reinvent the wheel, and what Kasten said about [players] interacting with fans. Fred Claire, when he was in charge of public relations, used to send us out in uniform to do clinics in places like Pasadena, Compton, the San Fernando Valley — all over Southern California. The fans here love baseball and proved it over the years.”

“Mr. O’Malley, you put pride in the Dodgers,” Johnson said, asking the former owner to stand. “What we want to do is bring the pride back to the city and organization. We want to win on the field and make sure the fans have the best experience they’ve ever had. We want to make sure it’s fan-friendly and safe.”

But wait, doesn’t Frank McCourt still get a share of the parking lot revenue?

In response to repeated questions about McCourt possibly capitalizing on parking revenue, Johnson and Walter quashed that possibility — Magic firmly so, in no uncertain terms.

“We own it 100 percent,” Johnson said. “He won’t get a dime for the parking.”

Walter stressed that McCourt can profit only from future development, adding, “We don’t have any current plans for development. Nothing can be developed unless we think it’s good for us.”

Thankfully, there was no “there’s a new sheriff in town” moment, nor was there a sign of impending disaster.

I have to say that they got their reign off to a great start by holding a near flawless introductory press conference.

Why not completely flawless?

Kasten will work alongside general manager Ned Colletti in personnel matters in an effort to return the Dodgers to a place of consistent excellence.

Makes it sound like Ned Colletti will be sticking around or something. Ugh.

I’ve expressed my concern with that before, but I’ve also said that if Stan Kasten thinks keeping him on board is the right move, then I’ll try to evaluate him as a different GM under the new regime.

In Stan we trust, right?

We’ll see, but Colletti is now easily the part of the organization that I’m most concerned about.

—–

Magic Johnson and Mark Walter both took parting shots at Frank McCourt, even if they weren’t direct.

Magic: “Let’s move forward. Frank is not here. He is not part of the Dodgers any more. We should be clapping for that.”

— Bill Shaikin (@BillShaikin) May 2, 2012

New #Dodgers owner Mark Walter, who lives in Chicago: “I do plan to get a residence here. Just one residence.”

— Bill Shaikin (@BillShaikin) May 2, 2012

Glorious.

After having the sale delayed by a day, the Los Angeles Dodgers are finally, and thankfully, free from the clutches of Frank McCourt.

Source: #Dodgers sale has closed. McCourt era has ended.

— Bill Shaikin (@BillShaikin) May 1, 2012

With that done, now the Dodgers are going to win every World Series for the next decade, right? Well, not quite.

As bad as Frank McCourt was, the product that has been run out on the field in recent years is not all his doing, as not only Ned Colletti, but everybody in the front office has their hands on that. Despite the fast start to 2012, Stan Kasten and company have a long road ahead to rebuild the farm system, the team’s international presence, and reputation as a perennial contender.

Then there’s the owners, Guggenheim Partners, who have been quiet for a while now, sans Magic Johnson occasionally sending out basic public relations tweets. Well, now that they’re officially owners of the team, there will rightfully be questions about how they will go about their business. They now need to be able to provide the answers to those questions, because we’ve been waiting for a long time.

The situation that they’ve stumbled into is an ideal one for ownership.

Just don’t screw it up.

Personally, I answered: $1, $5, $10, $500.

—–

Baseball Prospectus: Dash Treyhorn analyzes how the perception of Charlie Manuel has evolved, primarily due to winning.

Sometimes I wonder if the same would be possible with Ned Colletti. We’ve already seen how people think he’s solid because he won with all the homegrown talent he was provided and another GM’s players, so I can’t help but think that if Stan Kasten helps turn the ship around with Colletti still on board, it would completely change the way most people look at him.

—–

Deadspin: A youth baseball coach was arrested for threatening a parent with a gun. Thought it was an appropriately timed story given my article on coaches.

Gawker: Is Jose Canseco even writing his own crazy tweets? Probably not, which is even more reason we shouldn’t give a shit about him.

In what I’m sure was sheer coincidence, it was revealed that Coffey had been dealing with knee trouble.

After the game Don Mattingly said Todd Coffey has been getting treatment on his knee

— Eric Stephen (@truebluela) April 14, 2012

Truly amazing that it didn’t seem to affect his full bore sprint from the pen.

Todd Coffey to the 15-day DL (right knee inflammation) to make room for Ted Lilly

— Eric Stephen (@truebluela) April 14, 2012

Basically, this move was made because they wanted to keep both Josh Lindblom and Jamey Wright. Still though, it’s amazing to me that they’d rather put Coffey on the DL than designate Wright, especially considering Lindblom is basically their seventh inning guy at this juncture.

—–

Besides laughing at people going insane over his blown save, Kenley Jansen‘s velocity was a hot topic.

Eric Stephen of True Blue LA got a quote from Don Mattingly saying that the problem may be mechanical again, but he’s not overly concerned.

Jansen’s velocity was also down, throwing between 89-91 MPH, hitting 92 on two pitches. But Mattingly didn’t sound worried.

“Kenley’s different. There have been times early on where he gets tentative or gets off kilter, and the ball doesn’t come out the same way. We’ll continue to pay attention to his mechanics. The ninth is different than the eighth, so we’ll pay attention to that too,” Mattingly said. “As long as Kenley is not hurt, then we’re not concerned.”

Tony Jackson of ESPN Los Angeles got a quote from Jansen revealing that he’s been under the weather a bit, and he also talked to Rick Honeycutt, who echoed Mattingly’s lack of concern.

Jansen has been battling a mild case of flu in recent days, which could have accounted for the velocity drop.

“I’ve been battling the flu, but that’s not an excuse at all,” Jansen said. “You still have to make good pitches and keep us in the game and try to help the team win. That is what it’s all about.”

Both manager Don Mattingly and pitching coach Rick Honeycutt noticed the slight dropoff, but neither seemed alarmed by it. Honeycutt said it might have been due to the cold weather or illness.

Actually, sickness could explain it, though seeing is believing.

—–

Jayson Stark of ESPN has a piece on the new ownership group of the Los Angeles Dodgers, and it warns that those expecting them to spend big may be sorely disappointed, primarily because that’s not Stan Kasten‘s style.

So do people within the industry see this man suddenly turning into a spend-a-holic who starts firing nine- and 10-year deals at whoever wants to take them? Heck, no.

“That’s not Stan Kasten’s M.O,” said one veteran agent. “I’m sure they’ll be a franchise that makes moves. But I’m also sure that when Stan makes decisions, it won’t be like the kind of decisions Mike Illitch makes.”

“When it looks like a sure thing, it ain’t,” said another prominent agent. “Look at the Nationals. Ted Lerner has more money than God, and look how long it took him to start handing out big contracts. And did he hand them out while Stan was there? No. It happened after he left. So I know everyone anticipates him spending wildly now. But I’m not so sure.”

So what can we learn from that history? Nobody in baseball has a better feel for that than Kasten’s longtime general manager in Atlanta, John Schuerholz.

“It’s fair to say this group is out to re-establish the great Dodger brand,” Schuerholz told Rumblings. “But how that translates into making decisions to spend big money on big-name free agents, I don’t think that’s automatic.”

Now would Schuerholz be surprised to see the Kasten/Magic Dodgers chasing the most ballyhooed free agents in the game? No, he “wouldn’t be surprised to see them do that,” he said.

“But I don’t think they’ll do it every day,” Schuerholz said. “I don’t think they’ll do it all the time. What I’m sure they’ll do is what Stan has always tried to do — build a rock-solid organization and build it largely around homegrown talent. And at the same time, I’m sure he won’t shy away from the right free agent. But I underline the word, ‘right.’”

“I don’t think Stan rolls the dice at anything,” Schuerholz said. “I don’t think he’s ever rolled the dice. Stan analyzes. He relies on his experience and his instincts … and he makes an analytical decision about what’s the right thing to do for the franchise.”

Analyzing?

This … this … this sounds wonderful.

“Less” — the comparative effectiveness of the franchise’s free agent spending under his reign.

“Most” — the production contributed by cost controlled players while he’s been in charge.

—–

Ned Colletti has been the GM for one of the most successful runs in Los Angeles Dodgers history, compiling at 511-460 record since the 2006 season, good for third in the National League, behind only the Philadelphia Phillies and St. Louis Cardinals. The success has led many fans and writers to excuse away any deficiencies he may have, because the results have been solid.

Despite the results though, his work is not well regarded by bloggers. The general belief is that the main cog behind the franchise’s success was actually the perfect storm of cost controlled talent rising from the minor league system around the same time. Most of that talent was brought in and nurtured by Logan White and Kim Ng, who were hired by a previous GM, Dan Evans. Meanwhile, Colletti is thought to have squandered the tremendous window of opportunity provided to him on free agent signings like Juan Pierre, Jason Schmidt, and Andruw Jones. Perhaps most importantly, the further away Colletti gets from the influence of the previous regimes, the worse the roster seems to get.

I bring up these divergent narratives because The Hardball Times recently put out a great study on an objective way to measure front office performance, and the results appear to explain both lines of thinking.

—–

So what was studied and what do I mean by “Less” and “Most”?

There are really two different sources of per-dollar efficiency when we look at marginal payroll per marginal win:
(1) How well a team gets production from players not yet eligible for free agency
(2) How efficiently a team spends on free agents

So, for the following analysis, I will use two classifications of players that are particularly important.
(1) NM = Non-Market Players, who are either bound to their team by the reserve clause or eligible for arbitration
(2) AM = Auction-Market Players, who are eligible for free agency or are at least eligible for auction by being professional amateurs from countries like Japan and Cuba.

So what we’re really looking at to evaluate the performance of front offices is marginal payroll per marginal win, or how efficient a front office is at developing and signing talent.

“Most”, in the case of the Dodgers, is represented by the production of their cost controlled players, who are developed from within. The Dodgers rank an amazing 1st in the MLB in this category, explaining both the position of bloggers and the perception that the team has developed a wealth of homegrown talent.

On the other hand, the Dodgers’ payroll averaged $110 million over the last five seasons, but they might have been just as good if they had just retained their own draftees and amateur signings. The only cost would have been about $30 million in arbitration and league minimum salaries, and they would have been about as good as they were spending $110 million.

Of course, that’s not completely true, as there are roster flexibility issues to account for, but it goes to show just how much homegrown talent Colletti has been afforded under his reign.

The “Less”, in that case, becomes the way the Dodgers have spent on free agents, who are purchased from outside the organization. In that category, the Dodgers ranked 19th in the MLB, spending about $6.3 million per win. It’s an inefficient way to do business, but with enough payroll flexibility, he was able to throw around enough money to get production out of them. This helped set up the successful run of results for Colletti, explaining the position of many fans and writers.

Overall, the study basically showed that Colletti had been given the most productive farm system in baseball from 2007-2011 and still somehow managed to end up with a progressively worse roster as the years went by. The main culprit was spending around $6.5 million per win in free agency, or about $2.0 million more per win than league average.

It’s an indictment of your talent as a decision maker when there are tens of millions to spend with the purpose of improving on what you’ve already been given, yet you’re barely able to claw back and achieve the results of what you already had to begin with.

In the end, the Dodgers ranked 21st in marginal payroll per marginal win from 2007 to 2011.

—–

If new President Stan Kasten has faith that he can work with Ned Colletti and provide him with the tools to improve as a GM going forward, then I’m willing to put my faith in Kasten’s track record and start over with Colletti. However, given the fact that the Dodgers job has to be one of the most currently appealing GM positions in the majors, the far preferable solution would be to replace Colletti with one of the game’s many bright young minds in either scouting or analytics.

Los Angeles Times: Bill Plaschke (barf) talks to the key figures in the new Los Angeles Dodgers ownership.

For now, as the initial celebration fades and the close examination begins, Dodger fans need to see proof that this dream team won’t just turn into another nightmare.

“You know I’m going to do this right,” promised Johnson. “I would not be putting millions of my dollars into this if we weren’t going to do it right.”

The questioning started here with Johnson. Will he be more than just a new Dodger face and voice? Will he have the freedom to help run the Dodgers with his considerable business acumen and competitive spirit?

“You want to know Magic’s title? It’s owner,” Kasten said.

Johnson confirmed that he has already picked out a Dodger Stadium office and that, while he still has other business interests, this will be his main job and focus.

“I take, very seriously, the honor of being a minority owner in an organization where Jackie Robinson played,” Johnson said. “I’ll be there every day, fans will see me every day, I’ll be working hard to spread the word about how we’re going to make this a great franchise again.”

I think we’ve known all along that he was a figurehead, but he’s an awesome figurehead, so whatever.

Walter said he will remain in the background of the club’s daily operations, allowing Kasten to oversee baseball and business matters while Johnson is the caretaker of the image.

“I’m a baseball fan, but I’m not qualified to make baseball decisions, and I don’t want to pretend to be,” said Walter. “I’m here to support and help my people as much as I can. I’m here to cheer as loud as I can.”

But since he still controls the purse strings, the bucks still stop with him, no? Will he give Kasten the freedom to spend them? How does he view the idea of paying the sort of big money for the sort of big free agents that the Dodgers have avoided signing during most of their 14-year championship drought?

“Stan has a very proven formula for building a team that doesn’t win one year, but wins 12 years in a row [Atlanta Braves], so for me to tell him how you build that is completely inappropriate,” said Walter. “But having said that, we really want to win, and it’s OK if, while we’re producing the best players in the world, we also have the best players in the world on our field.”

In other words, said Johnson, “We are going to have all the resources available to us to put a championship team on the field.”

Oh dear, I think I’m in love.

“We understand what we just bought, we understand what it needs to be,” said Kasten. “We make more money when we win. We are real cognizant of that. While we want to build a long-term plan, we want to have a winner now.”

To understand Kasten’s baseball philosophy, check out his Atlanta Braves team that won the 1995 World Series. His front office was led by powerful General Manager John Schuerholz. His starting rotation was led by a high-priced free agent, Greg Maddux. His everyday lineup was filled with homegrown stars like Chipper Jones, Ryan Klesko and David Justice.

“I believe in scouting and player development, and a starting rotation,” Kasten said. “With both, anything is possible. Without both, nothing is possible.”

It’s just words, and I prefer actions, but they are saying literally everything right so far.

Haven’t been this excited about the team since they swept the Chicago Cubs in the 2008 NLDS.

Los Angeles Times: Walter Hamilton takes a look at the Guggenheim Partners.

Guggenheim Partners is connected to the family of Meyer Guggenheim, who came to the U.S. in the 1840s and made a fortune in mining. The Solomon R. Guggenheim Museum is named after the family.

Peter Lawson Johnston II, a great-grandson of the Guggenheim’s patriarch, launched the financial services company in 2000. The company is run day to day by chief executive Mark Walter and executive chairman Alan Schwartz, the former CEO of Bear Stearns & Co.

The firm is a full-fledged investment bank in the mold of Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley. Guggenheim has become a big player in commercial real estate debt, managing the type of investments that tripped up so many big Wall Street firms during the global financial crisis.

Guggenheim has varied holdings, including being a co-owner of the company that operates the Hollywood Reporter.

It has a large investment operation in Santa Monica, with more than 200 of its 1,700 employees based there. The firm manages about $125 billion in assets.

Mining, huh? It’s like they’re trolling Josh Macciello.

MLB.com: Richard Justice with a nice profile on Kasten.

He has some unshakeable core beliefs about running a baseball team. He believes the fan experience should be pleasant, that teams must be accountable to their customers. And he believes teams should be built from the inside through scouting and player development.

If he’s approved, he’ll surely use the work done by Cox and Schuerholz with the Braves as a blueprint for how to run the Dodgers.

He’s also a student of the game’s history and will almost certainly both understand and tap into the things that have made the Dodgers special, from the former players who created the team’s aura to the ballpark that is one of the signature destinations in Major League Baseball.

In both Atlanta and Washington, he told his employees that there really was no magic formula to succeeding. It was a matter of doing things right and getting better every single day.

Awesome.

Fox Sports: Ken Rosenthal believes Kasten will be the difference maker for the product on the field as well.

Wall Street Journal: Scott Austin has short blurbs on all those involved in the new ownership of the Dodgers.

—–

ESPN Los Angeles: Jon Weisman has a to-do list for the new owners.

The bottom line is, you can’t expect perfection, but you can demand excellence. Every effort must be made at making the best possible decision a thousand times over.

The new owners might fail. But, finally, Dodgers fans can at least say there’s hope.

Word.

Mike Scioscia’s Tragic Illness: Mike Petriello gives 19 random thoughts on the new ownership of the team.

—–

Dodgers Now: Dodgers players give their thoughts on the new owners, including Juan Rivera and Juan Uribe, who hadn’t heard of the deal until Dylan Hernandez told them.

Dodgers Now: What do Kobe Bryant and Pau Gasol think about Magic Johnson‘s involvement with the Dodgers?

The question reminded me of this:

Matthew Futterman (tee hee) of the Wall Street Journal has details on Magic Johnson‘s group’s winning bid on the Los Angeles Dodgers.

With a bid of $2.15 billion, including the surrounding land, Mr. Johnson, controlling partner Mark Walter and partners Peter Guber, Stan Kasten, Bobby Patton and Todd Boehly beat out a group of some of the wealthiest businessmen in the country to land a team that is one of Major League Baseball’s flagship franchises. The sales figure shatters the previous record sales price for a U.S. sports franchise, Steve Ross’s purchase of the Miami Dolphins for $1.1 billion three years ago.

But buying the Dodgers now comes with a unique opportunity to launch a potentially lucrative regional sports network in the country’s second-largest market, or sign a new local broadcast deal with the current broadcaster, News Corp.’s Fox unit, which has already offered the team a 17-year extension valued at nearly $3 billion. (News Corp. also owns The Wall Street Journal).

$3 billion is a ton, but David Wharton of the Los Angeles Times speculates that the price could be even higher, as much as $4 billion.

With Time Warner, Fox and others expected to show interest, estimates for the total value of the deal have risen as high as $4 billion.

“None of this is lost on the new owners of the Dodgers,” said Neal Pilson, former president of CBS Sports. “They have an opportunity to create a bidding war.”

So along with that surprisingly high $2 billion bid that had some people concerned are individuals who apparently knew what they were doing … unsurprisingly.

—–

The story of how Magic Johnson’s group won is rather amusing, as it basically amounts to making it rain cash on Frank McCourt.

According to a person involved with the process, the auction had been expected to take place Wednesday. Blackstone had asked the parties to submit sale contracts last week and deliver their initial offers by Tuesday morning, since approval of the bidders from Major League Baseball was expected to come easily on Tuesday afternoon. When the offers arrived, the bid from the Johnson-Walter group was so much higher than the competing offers, it essentially took the franchise off the block almost instantly.

The person said the other offers, which were perceived as opening bids, were in the range of $1.5 billion, some 25% less than the Johnson-Walter bid. As a result, the other bidders were never given a chance to match, and the deal was wrapped up by Tuesday evening.

The bid was described as a “100% cash offer.” Mr. Walter is making a significant personal contribution to the purchase price, with Guggenheim Partners, of which he is chief executive, playing a substantial role in financial contribution.

The deal is preliminary and still has to go through a complicated closing process and receive approval from the U.S. Bankruptcy Court in Delaware. However, Mr. McCourt is under pressure to complete the deal by April 30, one day before he owes his ex-wife a $131 million payment as part of their divorce settlement.

Bill Shaikin of the Los Angeles Times confirms that it was indeed a 100% cash bid and adds that it should not run into any difficulty, specifically because of the cash nature of the bid.

In my mind, I’m going to imagine that the group walked up to Frank McCourt and said, “Straight cash, homie.”

“What’s two billion dollars? To me?“

The richest man in Los Angeles, Patrick Soon Shiong, has joined up with Steven Cohen‘s Los Angeles Dodgers ownership group.

Patrick Soon-Shiong, the richest man in Los Angeles, has joined the Dodgers bid group led by hedge-fund billionaire Steven Cohen.

The alliance is the strongest indication yet of Cohen’s intention to present outgoing owner Frank McCourt with a final bid that reflects prominent local support rather than just overwhelming East Coast money.

If McCourt were to accept the Cohen bid, he would be rejecting one led by local icon Magic Johnson. Soon-Shiong has held several meetings with McCourt since the Dodgers were put up for sale in November, according to people familiar with the process.

Soon-Shiong had been widely expected to join the bid group led by Johnson, from whom he bought a minority share in the Lakers two years ago. Soon-Shiong’s decision to join Cohen was confirmed Sunday by two people familiar with the sale process but not authorized to comment.

That’s a gigantic win for Cohen, not only because of the money Soon Shiong brings, but because of Soon Shiong’s local roots, which was a significant criticism of Cohen’s group.

So while Dodgers fans are apparently dancing with visions of being the West Coast version of the New York Yankees, here’s some potentially terrible news about Cohen’s group’s involvement with Tony La Russa.

There’s just one problem with Tony La Russa becoming a key decision-maker for the Los Angeles Dodgers if Steve Cohen succeeds in buying the club.

La Russa is such a strong personality, his presence might diminish the Dodgers’ chances of hiring one of the top current general managers, according to rival executives.

The next owner of the club could retain GM Ned Colletti and give him the chance to operate with a payroll greater than $90 million, the Dodgers’ figure this season. But if the owner wants his own man, an incoming GM might balk at working for La Russa, who has zero front-office experience.

All of this is speculation; the bidding is not nearly complete. But, as rival execs see it, a GM such as the Tampa Bay Rays’ Andrew Friedman or Arizona Diamondbacks’ Kevin Towers likely would not leave their current situations for limited autonomy in L.A.

Yeah … barf.

Ned Colletti already had his chance with a payroll of more than $90 million dollars, and I think we all remember what he did with it.

La Russa being an obstacle to somebody like Andrew Friedman coming to the Dodgers just says it all. Money is great, but I prefer the correct baseball people being put in place over most everything else. I’d rather have Friedman with a $125 million payroll than Colletti with a $200 million one, that’s for sure.

—–

With Cohen’s addition of Soon Shiong, it’s widely accepted that they are now the favorites, and Maury Brown has an awesome detailed breakdown of the four remaining groups at Baseball Prospectus.

Basically, as has been previously covered, the Magic Johnson/Stan Kasten group is the best fit in terms of overall monetary bid, front office experience, and local ties, but the amount of cash equity is unknown. Cohen’s group offers a ton of cash equity and he solved the local ties problem with the addition of Soon Shiong. However, his company’s insider trading investigations is a red flag and what they seem to be planning to do on the baseball side of things is horrifying.

Both have their pluses and minuses, and it’s becoming increasingly apparent that they are the main players.

The race is really coming down to two groups in Magic/Kasten and Cohen. The distance for the other two, along with cross-ownership concerns, is likely enough to move Kroenke and Heisley/Ressler out of the picture. As a result, it seems as though it’s going to boil down to the bankruptcy court and Frank McCourt.

McCourt has a chance to go out a winner in selecting the Magic/Kasten group. While the cash piece is critical, unless it is so far out of skew as to not be competitive, it would be smart to take the goodwill and operational excellence that comes with Magic/Kasten, which is head and shoulders above the others in this regard. By the same token, if the deal is structured closely to Cohen’s, MLB needs to push for the same. There’s every reason to want the Magic/Kasten group in place, and who knows? If the Mets continue to slide into the abyss, the league might be able to have their cake and eat it too. Magic/Kasten could own the Dodgers and Cohen could land his more favored Mets.

Taking everything into consideration, an ever so slight edge is going to Cohen winning the day. While it may not be the best ownership group at the moment, the group does seem the most likely to be destined for a win. In that, Magic/Kasten could have by far the best winning—yet losing—group in the mix.

Not the best or the smartest, but the one with the most money.

Not the start I would want.

Alan Casden will not be the next owner of the Los Angeles Dodgers, as he had his ownership bid rejected by Major League Baseball.

Casden, a Beverly Hills real estate developer, was not invited to Monday’s meetings between Dodgers bidders and two committees of major league owners.

The six bidding groups at the meetings: hedge-fund billionaire Steven Cohen and longtime agent Arn Tellem; St. Louis Rams owner Stan Kroenke; Memphis Grizzlies owner Michael Heisley and Los Angeles investor Tony Ressler; Los Angeles civic leader and investor Stanley Gold; New York media executive Leo Hindery; and veteran baseball executive Stan Kasten and Guggenheim Partners Chief Executive Mark Walter. Magic Johnson, who is a partner with Kasten and Guggenheim, was unable to attend because of a scheduling conflict.

So it’s down to six, but three clear favorites have emerged.

Cohen is widely considered one of three favorites to buy the team, along with St. Louis Rams owner Stan Kroenke and a group led by Magic Johnson and veteran baseball executive Stan Kasten.

Steven Cohen appears to clearly be in the lead, but why?

There are several bidders offering $1.5 billion for the Dodgers. But who has the cash? Remember when Rick Caruso bailed? That wasn’t about the parking lots not being included, as Caruso so meekly claimed (how many teams own their own parking lots?). It was about Caruso not having the cash. MLB kicked out Jared Kushner because he didn’t have the cash either. He wanted to buy the Dodgers with too much debt. Been there, done that.

As expected, all of this comes down to money. Not so much total money bid, but who can give Frank McCourt the most money right now. As such, it appears that the three with the most are Cohen, Stan Kroenke, and Magic Johnson/Stan Kasten.

—–

Now I was going to write about the ownership situation in further detail, but Mike Petriello has already said a lot of the things I wanted to say.

I’ve been pretty apprehensive about Cohen since the first time we talked about him, arguing that a hedge fund guy under investigation from the SEC who’s had his own nightmare divorce which stretched over two decades isn’t exactly the ideal owner to follow up Frank McCourt. Besides, while it doesn’t bother me so much, I know the idea of another East Coast import (a Mets fan and recent buyer of a minority share in the club, Cohen currently lives in Connecticut) who has reportedly never even been to Dodger Stadium won’t sit well with any of us.

Yup. Do not want.

Then there’s Kroenke, who has some appeal. He’s clearly got a ton of experience in sports ownership, having owned parts or all of the St. Louis Rams, English soccer club Arsenal, and basically every professional Colorado sports club that isn’t the Rockies or Broncos, including the Nuggets (NBA), Avalanche (NHL), Mammoth (NLL), Rapids (MLS), and Crush (AFL). Beyond the teams themselves, his groups own the Pepsi Center in Denver and launched Altitude (a regional sports network which carries his Colorado teams) & TicketHorse, a ticketing agency for all of his teams.

He wrote a lot more on Kroenke, including finding an article from 2010 which talks about Kroenke’s management style, most of which paints him in a positive light.

Of course, the primary worry with him is that the Dodgers might be secondary to getting an NFL team in Los Angeles, as I mentioned previously.

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So basically, Magic Johnson’s group is still my favorite, but I’m starting to realize that Stan Kroenke brings a ton to the table as well. The worry is Steven Cohen because of a few black marks on his personal record, because I’m not convinced he’s actually interested in the team, and because he resembles Dr. Evil from “Austin Powers“.

With the Los Angeles Dodgers in the news for the impending bidding war over the ownership of the team, I thought this would be as appropriate a time as ever to run through the publicly declared bidders, as the deadline for submission has come and gone.

Bill Shaikin of the Los Angeles Times breaks down the specifics of the bidding process in nice and tidy parts.

If McCourt has the final say on the new owner, what role does Major League Baseball play in the process?

MLB has agreed to approve up to 10 bidders. Yet Blackstone is unlikely to clear even that many bidders for MLB consideration, given the time needed for the league to investigate the structure and financing of each potential ownership group. To cover the costs of the investigation, MLB will charge $25,000 to each bidder cleared by Blackstone.

If MLB rejects a prospective bidder cleared by Blackstone, does McCourt have any recourse?

Yes. He can appeal to the mediator who brokered his settlement with MLB.

Do the other MLB owners have a say?

Yes. They can approve or reject any bidder that passes the MLB investigation. However, once the league informs Blackstone of which prospective buyers have been approved by MLB owners, McCourt conducts the final round of bidding and determines the winner. If the winning bidder’s final offer is dramatically higher than the initial offer, MLB reserves the right to review the financing.

When will this happen?

There is no set date, but the calendar suggests the end of March. McCourt has agreed to select the winning bidder by April 1 and disclose the winner to the U.S. Bankruptcy Court by April 6.

Outstanding stuff, as always.

Regarding the bidders themselves though, who are the groups and what good or bad traits do they bring to the table?

Let’s find out.

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Mark Cuban

The Good: A charismatic fan favorite of an owner, basically the exact opposite of Frank McCourt. His tenure as the Dallas Mavericks owner has obviously been a successful one, as he turned a joke of a franchise into a perennial contender. While his money has often been cited as the reason for the change, he has proven that he will explore any avenue that could potentially give his franchise an advantage. As such, he is unlikely to be as sabermetrics averse as the current Dodgers front office, as evidenced by his implementation of analytics in basketball to score his first NBA Championship.

The Bad: I’m not convinced he’s that legit of a threat to win. He’s not an idiot and he’s unlikely to go over whatever he has the Dodgers valued at, as he showed in the bidding for the Texas Rangers. While I’m confident he would find quality baseball men to run the franchise, he’s not going into the process with anybody in place.

My Take: I would love for him to be owner, as his history suggests he would make winning a priority and would explore the most efficient ways to do so. Unfortunately, I think it’s a long shot.

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Magic Johnson/Stan Kasten/Mark Walters

The Good: Magic Johnson instantly becomes the face of the ownership and it should go over extremely well with fans. Stan Kasten employs his experience with the Atlanta Braves and Washington Nationals to run the baseball operations. Mark Walters could use his eleventy trillion dollars to supplement the payroll and buy elite players. Seriously, Guggenheim Partners has over $100 billion in assets and he’s the CEO.

The Bad: Uh…none?

My Take: My current preference to win the bidding. I can’t see a better combination.

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Steven Cohen/Steve Greenberg/Arn Tellem

The Good: Founder of SAC Capital Advisors and a hedge fund manager, Steven Cohen is worth over $8 billion. The group’s baseball experience will come from Steve Greenberg, who served as a deputy commissioner of baseball, and Arn Tellem, who is a player agent for the Wasserman Media Group. Get to use puns on Arn Tellem’s name.

The Bad: In today’s political environment, it’s not exactly ideal in the public relations department to have a hedge fund manager as an owner, and especially not one whose company is under investigation by the SEC. Went through an ugly divorce that led to lawsuits. Sound familiar?

My Take: Do. Not. Want. I don’t want to deal with yet another owner with baggage. Haven’t Bud Selig and the other owners learned their lesson yet? Yes, other ownership groups could have drama, but this one has already been confirmed to have been involved in messes before, so why bother? My fear is that the Blackstone Group, which is in control of the sale, is a significant investor in SAC Capital Advisors, and that could give the latter a gigantic advantage.

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Rick Caruso/Joe Torre/Byron Trott

The Good: Joe Torre becomes the face of the franchise and has a ton of baseball experience. Despite his tenure with the Dodgers, I get the feeling that fans love him, and given that he just left a position with the MLB, he and Bud Selig should have a solid working relationship. Byron Trott, named by Warren Buffett as the only banker he trusts, heads BDT Capital Partners and was previously the vice chairman for Goldman Sachs. I would have the same concerns with him as I do with Steven Cohen, but he has no legal issues with his comapny and Buffett’s word carries weight. Rick Caruso is a local developer who is worth around $1.7 billion and has tons of local popularity.

The Bad: Honestly? Torre as the baseball man frightens me. A lot. He’s not progressive with his thinking at all and he never seemed to have a problem with Ned Colletti, leading me to believe he just might keep him around. Disastrous.

My Take: I don’t necessarily have a problem with the group, but the risk that Torre could regress the Dodgers to decades old thinking and retain Colletti is too much for me to bear. Out.

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Dennis Gilbert/Larry King/Jason Reese/Randy Wooster

The Good: Both Larry King and Dennis Gilbert are Dodgers fans, which is always a plus. King’s name carries weight, though I’m not sure he has any name value as a sports personality. Gilbert has extensive baseball experience as a former player agent, former player, and current special assistant to Jerry Reinsdorf, who owns the Chicago White Sox. Jason Reese and Randy Wooster are Chairman/CEO and President of Imperial Capital, a Los Angeles area investment bank, and the two will be providing the financial thump in the group.

The Bad: Not much public motivation, honestly. No idea if they actually have the money to compete.

My Take: If they have the money to spend competitively, then I have no issue with the group, but as of now, that’s a big unknown. There are rumors that they might have to hook up with Fox or Time Warner to get the finances to work. Ugh.

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Leo Hindery/Marc Utay

The Good: Leo Hindery is a Managing Partner at private equity fund InterMedia Partners, and he founded the YES Network for the New York Yankees and served as Chairman & CEO until 2004. Marc Utay is a Managing Partner at private equity firm Clarion Capital Partners. The pair of them tried to buy the Chicago Cubs back in 2009, so there’s a history there.

The Bad: They’ve been under the radar, and as a result not much has been revealed as to their finances or plans, so the biggest downside right now is the uncertainty.

My Take: Hard to judge what you know little about, so I can’t provide much positive or negative feedback until more is revealed.

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Steve Garvey/Orel Hershiser

The Good: Their resume in baseball speaks for itself, though little is known about their actual qualifications as executives. They certainly figure to have local support and can become the faces of the franchise.

The Bad: They don’t seem to have funding. Last time they spoke on the Dodgers, they were still looking for investors and it’s unknown who they found.

My Take: Not enough information to endorse two former players with unknown finances and unknown executive experience.

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Josh Macciello

The Good: He’s not a hedge fund manager or a banker or an executive, he’s a regular guy like you or me. He’s the CEO of ArmItal Sports and plans to use the gold mines he owns, which are valued in the tens of billions, as collateral for the purchase, so he says he has the financial backing.

The Bad: He’s a regular guy like you or me. The lack of baseball connections, the lack of executive experience, the lack of community support, and the legitimate questions about whether he would even be taken seriously by the commissioner and fellow owners. All of those are negatives.

My Take: I understand why fans might want to side with him, but I just can’t. It has little to do with his looks or his spelling or whatever else. It has more to do with the lack of experience in everything that I think an owner should be about.

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Stan Kroenke

The Good: Stan Kroenke is the largest shareholder in Arsenal F.C., owns the St. Louis Rams, Colorado Mammoth, and Colorado Rapids, and he formerly owned the Denver Nuggets, Colorado Avalanche, and Colorado Crush, all of which he transferred to his son to comply with NFL ownership rules. Needless to say, he has experience with this sort of thing and his teams have generally performed well under his tenure in charge.

The Bad: Perhaps his money will be spread a bit thin and I’m wondering if this has more to do with trying to move the Rams to Los Angeles than actually caring about the Dodgers. No idea about the baseball side of things.

My Take: I’m okay with this in theory, but I’m going to hold off on endorsing the move until more is revealed. We know a lot about him as an owner, but not a lot about his interest in the Dodgers.

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Potential Mergers And/Or Group Joiners

Peter O’Malley: Submitted an ownership bid himself, but has been rumored to be in discussions to link up with the bid of Stanley Gold & Roy Disney’s Family and/or Tony Ressler. A throwback to the good old days of Dodgers family ownership, but it’s probably not gonna help that he was talking about how terrible McCourt was as an owner considering McCourt will hold the ultimate decision.

Stanley Gold/Roy Disney’s Family: Submitted an ownership bid as their own group, but have been rumored to be linking up with Peter O’Malley and/or Tony Ressler. Gold is the President & CEO of Shamrock Holdings and has local popularity, but his financial clout is not known. Not much is known about what Roy Disney’s Family brings to the table either, I assume it’s money but nobody knows. Group is short on baseball experience.

Tony Ressler: Rumored to be linking up with either Stanley Gold & Roy Disney’s Family or Peter O’Malley or either or both. Co-founder of local investment firm Ares Capital, which has in excess of $40 billion in assets.

Tom Barrack: Chairman & CEO of investment firm Colony Capital has a net worth over $1 billion. Has been rumored to join several groups, but no specifics have popped up yet.

Fox: Seriously? No. Please no.

Time Warner Cable: They haven’t actually done anything wrong, but why get involved in this type of ownership situation again? Fool me once…

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Rumored Bidders

Alan Casden: A real estate developer worth over $1 billion, he might have more interest in the property the Dodgers own more than the team itself, which is disconcerting. Remember, this is the guy who tried to buy the team last time around and had plans to move Dodger Stadium to a different location. MLB didn’t want him last time because of an investigation into illegal campaign contributions to local politicians. Why deal with the headache?

Ron Burkle: Worth over $3 billion dollars, he is the current co-owner of the Pittsburgh Penguins. While no baseball people are rumored to be on board yet, he seems to carry a lot of weight locally. Divorce was…uh…messy.

Fred Claire/Andy Dolich/Ben Hwang: Fred Claire has experience as an executive with the Los Angeles Dodgers and Andy Dolich has experience as an executive with the Oakland Athletics. Ben Hwang, former executive at Life Technologies, will provide the finances for the group. The question mark revolves around money and whether they have enough of it.

Tom Golisano: Founder of Paychex is worth $1.4 billion and is the former owner of the Buffalo Sabres. Was preparing a bid, but it’s unknown whether he followed through or not. Worth noting is that Sabres fans criticized his lack of spending, and he’s on record as saying that the biggest payroll doesn’t lead to championships, which is correct in theory, but seems like code for not wanting to spend much.