Baseball fans love to talk about clutch plays and clutch players, and Dodgers fans are no exception, but like with a pitcher’s best and worst pitches, there tends to be a lack of evidence presented. As such, I decided to find some basis for clutch plays and clutch players, courtesy of the WPA and Clutch statistics.

WPA

Most sabermetric statistics are context neutral — they do not consider the situation of a particular event or how some plays are more crucial to a win than others. While wOBA rates all home runs as equal, we know intuitively that a home run in the third inning of a blowout is less important to that win than a home run in the bottom of the ninth inning of a close game. Win Probability Added (WPA) captures this difference by measuring how individual players affect their team’s win expectancy on a per-play basis.

Clutch

In the words of David Appelman, this calculation measures, “…how much better or worse a player does in high leverage situations than he would have done in a context neutral environment.” It also compares a player against himself, so a player who hits .300 in high leverage situations when he’s an overall .300 hitter is not considered clutch.

So that’s the foundation for this post, and since that’s now been established, let’s get on with it, shall we?

As always, visuals have been provided because, let’s be honest, everything is better with visuals.

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I feel like it’s necessary to point out that none of this is predictive of the future or telling of the past. It’s a post about stuff that happened in 2012. That’s all.

In other words, please don’t link back to this while saying, “LOOK! THIS DUDE IS SO CLUTCH, BRO!” No.

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Top Five Clutchiest McClutchington Hits Of 2012

1. Adrian Gonzalez – +69.9%

Whenever you increase your team’s chances of winning by 69.9% with one swing of the bat, something must have gone right.

Well, it did.

It was the bottom of the ninth with one out and runners on first and second. The Dodgers trailed the Diamondbacks by a score of 4-3.

Down to his last strike, A-Gon comes up gigantic with a walk-off double down the right field line off J.J. Putz.

2. Ivan De Jesus – 67.3%

THANK YOU J.J. PUTZ XOXOXO HUGS AND KISSES

Trailing 7-6 with runners on first and second and down to their last out, feeble hitting Ivan De Jesus came up and whacked a double over Chris Young‘s head in center to take the lead.

Much love to J.J. Putz.

3. Scott Van Slyke – 61.1%

Early in 2012, the season was full of “yeah, this team is winning the World Series if this kinda shit happens” moments, and this was certainly one of them.

Scott Van Slyke hit a three-run bomb with runners on first and second to give the Dodgers a 6-5 lead after they trailed 5-3 with two outs in the bottom of the seventh inning.

Even though it was only the seventh, it felt like a gigantic moment, right? WPA agrees.

4. Elian Herrera – 51.6%

So it’s the top of the eighth with two outs, the Dodgers trail 1-0 and Cliff Lee is just absolutely taking a dump down their throats, and, I mean, there’s runners on first and second but Elian Herrera or whoever is up, so it’s inning ove … HOLY SHIT! YES!!!

Shoutout to Juan Pierre.

5. Luis Cruz – 50.7%

Bottom of the sixth, two outs, runners on first and second (this is a theme), Dodgers trail the Cardinals 4-3, but 2012 phenom Luis Cruz is up and he absolutely bombs one into the bullpen to put the Dodgers up by two.

Bonus points for pimping it.

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Overall, the fact that there are five different players contributing here, and that four of the five are still basically unknowns to casual fans, speaks to how remarkable it was that the 2012 Dodgers even stayed in the playoff hunt throughout all the injuries and what not.

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Top Five Clutchiest Dodgers Of 2012 – Field Player Division

1. Dee Gordon – 1.05
2. Elian Herrera – 0.93
3. Luis Cruz – 0.84
4. Juan Uribe – 0.77
5. Adrian Gonzalez – 0.72

The 2013 projection for the Dodgers from Dan Szymborski‘s ZiPS system was released last week, and given that it’s probably my favorite forecasting tool, it’s worth a look to see how the team fared.

Forecasting is not a complete science, obviously, and I’ll address some of the potential pitfalls as we go along, but it’s better to use objective tools like these than the hopes/dreams of fans or the bitterness/wishes of haters.

To start us off, how does the team fare, generally speaking? A solid playoff contender, for sure, but a super team? Doesn’t seem likely.

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The Field Players

Despite all the hype over the recent acquisitions, the key cogs in this machine are still Clayton Kershaw and Matt Kemp. It’s a promising sign then, that Kemp projects at a 144 OPS+ and the system has confidence in him continuing to put up offensive numbers in the ~.900 OPS range. His defense in center still lags below average, but his bat more than makes up for it. His playing time projection has dropped due to his injury woes last season, and quite frankly, it’s hard to fault it for that. Regardless, he still figures to be the most valuable field player on the team.

Adrian Gonzalez is slated to be another bright spot, as ZiPS pegs him to bounceback a bit, though not as much as some want, clocking in at an ~.830 OPS/128 OPS+. That would still be his lowest OPS+ since 2008 (besides 2012, of course), but it’s a marked improvement considering his age and negatively trending skills. A-Gon compensates for that lagging bat a bit by putting up plus defense almost worth a win by itself. Hanley Ramirez factors in as yet another bounceback candidate, projecting at a 115 OPS+, which is an upgrade over last year’s 106 and is closer to his pre-2011 production. Defensively, even his horribad -8 run defensive rating is optimistic to me, as he was truly terrible with the glove last year. Given that I already wanted to barf seeing him trying to turn a double play in 2012, I wouldn’t be surprised at all to see him put up horrid defensive numbers after basically not playing the position all of spring.

Unfortunately, that’s where a lot of the offensive optimism ends. Luis Cruz checks in at 84 OPS+ (106 last year), which will anger many fans, but is completely reasonable given the track record. He remains valuable through plus defense, though given the sample size, there’s reason to be skeptical there as well. A.J. Ellis at 96 OPS+ (118) is another depressing but completely logical projection, as evidenced by everybody’s surprise in 2012 at his potent bat. Andre Ethier at 112 OPS+ (123) is hard to figure for me, because he has been consistently putting up ~120 OPS+ seasons even if it has come down from the ~130 OPS+ range two years ago. I suppose the projection system thinks he’ll get old in a hurry … or maybe it just thinks he’ll face an inordinately high amount of lefties. Mark Ellis at 81 OPS+ (93) shouldn’t be much of a surprise considering he’s 36 and put up an 80 OPS+ at Coors Field in 2011.

The last guy of the starters is Carl Crawford, who is the enigma of the 2013 season. He checks in at 104, which is notable because it’s basically his career OPS+ and it’s about what he did in limited time in 2012 over in Boston. That’s of particular note for me, because what he did in Boston in 2012 can be attributed to a mechanical fix that I pointed out in an article for Baseball Prospectus. Understandably, his playing time checks in low, but if he can produce like he did in 2012 but over a whole season, the Dodgers will be much better for it.

Overall, after fixing the playing time of A.J., adjusting Ethier’s offense up a bit, and adjusting Hanley’s defense down a bit, the starting lineup totaled about 22 WAR.

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The Bench & The Prospects

Assuming a bench of Tim Federowicz, Scott Van Slyke or Alex Castellanos, Jerry Hairston Jr., Nick Punto, and Skip Schumaker, we’re looking at around 3 WAR here after playing time is adjusted back to realistic bench levels. I’m guessing Alfredo Amezaga or Tony Gwynn Jr. work their way in somehow, but a five-man bench seems likely initially if the Dodgers can’t deal multiple pitchers before the season starts. Neither player would affect the WAR projection much though.

Honestly? I have to hope the Dodgers do something to improve the bench, because the current configuration looks rather mediocre, and the other options are keeping Juan Uribe and/or Elian Herrera. Yuck.

The good news is that Joc Pederson, T-Fed, SVS, and Castle are projected to be solid at the MLB level, though it sees Dee Gordon basically languishing behind.

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The Rotation

Clayton Kershaw is simply a beast, and he figures to check in with a 75 FIP-. This might seem high considering his 2011 and 2012 ERA- figures of 63 and 67, respectively, but when you consider that Felix Hernandez clocks in at 78 FIP- for 2013, you get the picture.

What might surprise is how close new acquisition Zack Greinke comes in behind him, as he figures to put up an FIP- of 81. Granted, he has always projected favorably, as his career FIP- is 80, while his career ERA- is 88, but even adjusting slightly for that, there’s a definite case there for the best 1-2 punch in the majors.

Unfortunately, this is where it gets murky, as Chad Billingsley has the stuff to be the #3, but if I were a betting man, I would bet his elbow implodes before July. He projects at 92 FIP-, which would put him around last year’s performance, which was his arguably his best season since 2008. However, given the nature of his injury and its history in the league, you can basically never rely on him to stay healthy again until he has Tommy John surgery.

Next in the pecking order are Josh Beckett, who comes in below-average at 103, and foreign import Hyun Jin Ryu, who comes in well below-average at 116. As mentioned before, the scouting reports for Beckett match this projection, as he’s no longer a front-line starter due to his decrease in velocity. However, if he can manage to learn to pitch a bit more, he still has the curve to perhaps slot in as a #3 more than a #4. Ryu is a case where I would take any projection with a mound of salt, because there’s hardly anything to base objective projections on. Personally, I don’t think Ryu has the stuff to be a #2, nor do I think he’ll be a #3 on a team with a $250 million payroll, but he should slot in comfortably in the back-end of the rotation for years. I would project something slightly below-average for 2013 and then hope for better.

The rotation is a strong point because it has both arguably the best 1-2 punch in the majors and depth, with Chris Capuano (108 FIP-) and Aaron Harang (114 FIP) presumably traded for upgrades (or maybe kept somehow?), and it checks in at about 17 WAR.

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The Bullpen & The Prospects

As of right now, I’m assuming a bullpen of Brandon League, Kenley Jansen, Ronald Belisario, Javy Guerra, Matt Guerrier, J.P. Howell, and Ted Lilly.

Jansen is the best of the bunch (63 FIP-) and League projects a distant second (92 FIP-), but Belisario has the most upside in these projections (101 FIP-). After that, Guerra, Guerrier, and Howell are all around replacement level. Lilly projects as a league-average pitcher, assuming he’s healthy, which would be a boon to a team that has a ticking time bomb in the rotation.

As far as prospects go, ZiPS thinks Chris Reed could be a replacement-level fill-in right now, but Zach Lee, Matt Magill, and Garrett Gould need more seasoning. And for all of you who have Stephen Fife wet dreams (yes, you’re out there), he projects at a 4.91 FIP, so keep it in your pants.

Speaking of replacement level, that especially applies to the Dodgers bullpen because of Shawn Tolleson, Scott Elbert, Steven Ames, and Paco Rodriguez, so the 4 WAR projection for this pen figures to be solid.

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Team Projection

A replacement-level team figures to win 43 games, and the team with the lowest amount of wins to get into the playoffs last year was the Cardinals at 88 wins, so 42 WAR puts you in the contender range and 45 WAR makes you viable, while 50 WAR will generally make a team a safe bet to be in the postseason. The Dodgers total 46 WAR, which puts them well within the playoff hunt: good but not great.

The Dodgers basically project neck-and-neck with the rival Giants, while the D-Backs lag behind a bit by maybe a half dozen wins or so, but they’re well within striking distance as well.

So make no mistake, the Dodgers recent spending habits did not make them an elite team, as the money simply duct-taped over both a flawed team and farm system depleted by Frank McCourt‘s ownership and Ned Colletti‘s questionable decisions. But that’s not to denigrate the job the new owners have done, as they turned the franchise into a legitimate playoff contender seemingly overnight, which is still saying a lot about what money can do.

Granted, “we gave you a team that has the chance to make the playoffs” is not what fans want to hear, but it’s an acceptable scenario as they lay the foundation to rebuild the franchise the correct way in their own minds. The 2013 projections might not reflect world-beaters like most seem to expect, but it’s a projection based on historical trends rather than hopes and dreams.

The 2013 Dodgers are indeed a team with a lot of upside, and if everything breaks correctly, they could very well end up being one of the best teams in the league, but they also carry a ton of inherent age and injury risk, which is why the projections come in understandably conservative. Either way, if nothing else, this team figures to be never boring.

Dylan Hernandez reports the Dodgers have acquired Skip Schumaker from the Cardinals, sending minor-league shortstop Jake Lemmerman the other way. Chad has more on the deal here.

My reaction: meh.

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The Dodgers have designated Scott Van Slyke for assignment in order to make room on the 40-man roster for Schumaker. Van Slyke was the Dodgers’ 2011 Minor League Player Of The Year.

Van Slyke is unlikely to clear waivers, so there’s a good chance he gets traded in a minor deal.

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Tony Gwynn Jr. has received an invitation to Spring Training as a non-roster invitee, as he’s still under contract for 2013 but is not on the 40-man roster.

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The Red Sox will send $11.7 million dollars westward to the Dodgers as part of the mega-deal centered around Adrian Gonzalez. The payments will come in three equal installments of $3.9 million, to be made in 2013, 2014, and 2015, and they will conclude the deal.

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Zack Greinke‘s contract with the Dodgers is $147 million guaranteed, but it could increase to $158 million with incentives.

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Greg Zakwin is the founder of the site Plaschke Thy Sweater Is Argyle. Follow him on Twitter @ArgyledPlaschke.

The Dodgers have acquired Cardinals utility man Skip Schumaker in exchange for minor-league shortstop Jake Lemmerman, according to Mike Petriello.

Tonight — well, tomorrow, perhaps, by the time it’s official — that may change. Multiple sources tell me that the Dodgers are in agreement with St. Louis on a deal that would send minor league shortstop Jake Lemmerman for veteran Skip Schumaker.

This has been rumored for a while, and back when it was announced that a deal was likely at some point, I gave my thoughts on Schumaker.

He plays second, left field, center field, and right field, so there’s versatility there, but he’s a terrible defender at second, a bad one in center, and just solid-average in the corners. Over the last three seasons, since he turned 30, he’s had an OPS+ of 88.

Not so thrilled, really.

He’ll be 33 next season and had a .276/.339/.368/.707 line in 2012, as well as a career .288/.345/.377/.722 line. Other than that though, the upside is that he has a pronounced platoon split, hitting .305/.359/.403/.762 against righties in his career versus .205/.276/.245/.521 against lefties. So if he’s used carefully, there’s offensive value to extract.

Unfortunately, as stated in the quote above, while he can play a few positions, he’s really not good at any of them, so he lacks true versatility, IMO. Additionally, as we learned when the Dodgers acquired both Hyun Jin Ryu and Zack Greinke, their 40-man roster is now full, so a corresponding move will have to be made.

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Jake Lemmerman is a shortstop that was selected by the Dodgers in the fifth round of the 2010 MLB Draft. 2012 was his age 23 season, and he hit .233/.347/.378/.725 in AA.

Prior to 2012, I had him outside of my top 25 prospects in the system, and his 2012 didn’t do anything to change that.

As such, while I’m not exactly thrilled with Schumaker occupying a roster spot, the return for him wasn’t significant.

The Dodgers officially announced the hiring of Mark McGwire as hitting coach, replacing Dave Hansen. McGwire spent the past three years with the Cardinals as their hitting coach.

Under his tutelage, the Cards offense was top-five in OBP in each of his seasons at the offensive helm, leading all of baseball last year.

McGwire has stated that his philosophy includes not forcing change upon established sluggers, so Matt Kemp will be allowed to be himself. Hopefully McGwire can rub off on some of the lesser bats in the lineup while aiding Hanley Ramirez and Adrian Gonzalez in regaining some of their previous offensive clout. The willingness McGwire displayed as a player for drawing a walk could also be a great starting point for most of the team, as that aspect of the game can never be emphasized enough.

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As Chad noted yesterday, the Dodgers won the rights to Korean southpaw Hyun Jin Ryu, according to Mike Petriello. The Dodgers are spending money like they have a printing press hidden away in Ned Colletti‘s suite, and this seems like just another example.

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The club has outrighted Alfredo Silverio to AAA Albuquerque, opening up a spot on the 40-man roster. Silverio missed the entire 2012 season while dealing with multiple injuries suffered in a car crash.

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23 minor-leaguers, most notably Ramon Troncoso and Josh Fields, became free agents earlier this week.

If Troncoso were to return, it would just be as AAA roster filler, as the Dodgers possess a plethora of bullpen arms and Ramon has been mediocre at best recently. Fields is your typical AAAA player, and he could be a back of the bench player with some pop, though considering that he didn’t see The Show in 2012, he’s not all that likely to see it in 2013 with the Dodgers.

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Greg Zakwin is the founder of the site Plaschke Thy Sweater Is Argyle. Follow him on Twitter @ArgyledPlaschke.

As everybody knew going into the game, it was literally a must-win contest for the Dodgers, as the magic number of the Cardinals was one for the final playoff spot in the National League.

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Buster Posey started the scoring in the top of second inning with a homer off Chris Capuano.

A Luis Cruz RBI groundout knotted the game at one, but Joaquin Arias broke the tie with a homer in the top of the third.

Yes, seriously. Joaquin Arias.

Then Marco Scutaro extended their lead in the top of fifth inning with a two-RBI double.

A.J. Ellis, the miracle man, responded with a two-run homer to right-center in the bottom of the seventh to draw the Dodgers within one.

Two batters later, the turning point in the game happened, as Mark Ellis was gunned down by about eleventy billion feet at third base on a ball hit into the gap.

I mean … what the fuck?

Immediately after that, Shane Victorino tripled, and while I always say that baseball results don’t exist in a vacuum … wow it was tough to watch.

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In the ninth, as if to torture us further, Andre Ethier singled to lead off the inning against a lefty reliever, which is a miracle in itself.

So bring in Dee Gordon to pinch run and either let him try to steal second or just let A.J. hit, right? Nope, try to bunt with the guy who got the game to within one in the first place! Don Mattingly everybody! His 2012 season coup de grace.

I mock the move because even assuming a successful bunt, there’s a 5.3% drop in the chance the Dodgers win, and that comes without context. With context? A.J. is a quality overall hitter with .375 OBP skills and you’re going to bunt with him for either Elian Herrera or Bobby Abreu? Does this even make sense to traditional managers? Good lord.

Results-wise, sure enough, A.J. got buntfucked. Bunt attempts put him in a two-strike hole and he eventually struck out. As if to taunt us, Dee then stole second successfully, but Abreu flew out to left.

That set up M. Ellis for an attempt at redemption.

What else can you say?

The Dodgers are currently two games back of the Cardinals for the National League‘s final playoff spot with two games to play. Los Angeles has a 2.5% (-2.3% since yesterday) chance of making the playoffs according to Cool Standings and a 2.5% (-1.8% since yesterday) chance according to Baseball Prospectus.

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For today’s game, the Dodgers send Chris Capuano to the mound against Barry Zito, and they’re -155 betting favorites to win (60.8%). Additionally, AccuScore has them winning at a 64% clip. The Cardinals send Chris Carpenter to the hill against Mat Latos and are -125 betting favorites to win (55.6%), and AccuScore has their chances of prevailing at 58%.

The Dodgers are currently two games back of the Cardinals for the National League‘s final playoff spot. Los Angeles has a 4.8% (-3.4% since yesterday) chance of making the playoffs according to Cool Standings and a 5.0% (-3.1% since yesterday) chance according to Baseball Prospectus.

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For today’s game, the Dodgers send Aaron Harang to the mound against Matt Cain, and they’re -100 betting neutral to win (50.0%). Additionally, AccuScore has the Giants winning at a 61% clip. The Cardinals send Jaime Garcia to the hill against Bronson Arroyo and are -155 betting favorites to win (60.8%), and AccuScore has their chances of prevailing at 58%.

Surprised by the betting odds on today’s game for the Dodgers? So was I, and I’m not totally sure why the odds are like that.

The Dodgers are currently two games back of the Cardinals for the National League‘s final playoff spot. Los Angeles has a 8.2% (+3.8% since yesterday) chance of making the playoffs according to Cool Standings and a 8.1% (+4.1% since yesterday) chance according to Baseball Prospectus.

Joe Blanton shutdown the Rockies yesterday for the win, and Kurt Suzuki played hero for the Nationals as they won in extras.

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For today’s game, the Dodgers send Josh Beckett to the mound against Jorge De La Rosa, and they’re -235 betting favorites to win (70.1%). Additionally, AccuScore has the Dodgers winning at a 60% clip. The Cardinals send Lance Lynn to the hill against Ross Detwiler and are -135 betting favorites to win (57.4%), and AccuScore has their chances of prevailing at 50%.

If the Dodgers can get a result today, it sets up an epic showdown to end the season against the rival Giants, for better or worse.

The Dodgers are currently three games back of the Cardinals for the National League‘s final playoff spot. Los Angeles has a 3.1% (-1.4% since yesterday) chance of making the playoffs according to Cool Standings and a 4.0% (-1.7% since yesterday) chance according to Baseball Prospectus.

After Clayton Kershaw threw a gem yesterday, the Dodgers sit seven games above .500, but Edwin Jackson laid an egg for the Nationals, so the Dodgers remained three back of the playoffs with the clock getting closer to zero.

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For today’s game, the Dodgers send Joe Blanton to the mound against Tyler Chatwood, and they’re -200 betting favorites to win (66.7%). Additionally, AccuScore has the Dodgers winning at a 67% clip. The Cardinals send Kyle Lohse to the hill against Jordan Zimmermann and are -115 betting favorites to win (53.5%), and AccuScore has their chances of prevailing at 56%.

It might be surprising to some to see the Dodgers favored by so much with Blanton going, but on paper, the Rockies are a vastly inferior team with the worst pitching staff in the majors, so the Dodgers probably should be taking them to the woodshed. Of course, what this team should be doing and what they actually are doing has been a problem all year long.

The Dodgers are currently three games back of the Cardinals for the National League‘s final playoff spot. Los Angeles has a 4.5% chance of making the playoffs according to Cool Standings and a 5.6% chance according to Baseball Prospectus. Doesn’t take a math whiz to figure that 1-in-20 aren’t good odds, but gaining a game and a half over the past two days actually revived the on-life-support playoff hopes (1-2%) of the team.

Given that the Cardinals play the Nationals and the Reds to finish the season, two of the best teams in baseball, and the Dodgers have the Rockies and the Giants, anything does seem possible. It becomes absolutely imperative though that the Dodgers sweep the Rockies before going into their rivalry series, where seemingly anything could (and does) happen.

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For today’s game, the Dodgers send Clayton Kershaw to the mound against Jeff Francis, so it’s no surprise that they’re -290 betting favorites to win (74.4%), and AccuScore has the Dodgers winning at a 63% clip. The Cardinals sent Adam Wainwright to the hill against Edwin Jackson and are -135 betting favorites to win (57.4%), and AccuScore has their chances of prevailing at 56%.

While I still don’t believe the Dodgers should be risking the health of Kershaw and others for what amounts to a long shot, if nothing else the team has managed to make the end of this season exciting, for better or worse.

Clayton Kershaw pitched and labored through five innings with an injured left hip, but he managed to limit the Reds to a lone run. Adrian Gonzalez homered twice to emphatically break out of his slump, and he helped power the offense to a win. But perhaps the biggest surprise goes to Juan Uribe, who managed to … uh … get a hit.

Still, despite the team’s best efforts, their playoff chances actually dropped because both the Cardinals and the Brewers were victorious, thus keeping the Dodgers three games back of the final Wild Card spot with nine games to play. Their chances now sit in the 5-7 percent range, depending on what methodology you choose to employ.

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Given Kershaw’s performance, I suppose one could look at as if pitching him was the right decision since the team ended up winning, but ten baserunners, including five walks over five innings against the B-lineup of the Reds, didn’t exactly strike me as normal, nor did it really change the fact that the Dodgers playoff hopes are still slim. Honestly, it was just fortunate that the sequencing of his struggles weren’t different, and that the results somehow managed to remain positive.

Simply put, the risk wasn’t worth the reward no matter what happened, because as even Orel Hershiser noted on the ESPN broadcast (Via Eric Stephen), Kershaw indeed struggled with his mechanics:

“We’re watching Clayton Kershaw throw a lot of balls to the right-handed batters box, or away to Votto, or inside to righties. That right hip, as it gets a little fatigued, his upper body is going to take over and it’s going to over-rotate over that hip and he’s going to start pulling pitches like he is. It’s just that little less bracing that makes the upper body go too far and…instead of that arm speed being braced against that front leg and having some direction, there is less bracing on that front side. The arm and the upper body take over, and you happen to pull the ball to your glove side. So if he’s not putting as much weight on it or using as much strength in that front leg for direction, his mechanics will make him start pulling the ball to his glove side.”

As I’ve said on this issue before, I just didn’t see the upside in starting him. This wasn’t a playoff game, it wasn’t a tiebreaker game, and, heck, it wasn’t even a particularly important regular season game.

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In news that I enjoyed the most, A.J. Ellis snapped an 0-for-30 skid with a double in the ninth. The Dodgers dugout made light of his streak by asking for the ball.