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	<title>Chad Moriyama &#187; Skip Schumaker</title>
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		<title>A Dodgers Opening Day roster prediction with Gregg and Castellanos, but without Capuano</title>
		<link>http://www.chadmoriyama.com/2013/03/a-dodgers-opening-day-roster-prediction-with-gregg-and-castellanos-but-without-capuano/</link>
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		<pubDate>Fri, 29 Mar 2013 13:54:38 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Chad Moriyama</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Analysis]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Opinions]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Aaron Harang]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Alex Castellanos]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Alfredo Amezaga]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Carl Crawford]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Chad Billingsley]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Chris Capuano]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Don Mattingly]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Elian Herrera]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Jerry Hairston Jr.]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Juan Uribe]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Justin Sellers]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Kevin Gregg]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Los Angeles Dodgers]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Luis Cruz]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Matt Wallach]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Ned Colletti]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Opening Day]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Paco Rodriguez]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Peter Moylan]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Skip Schumaker]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Spring Training]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Ted Lilly]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Tim Federowicz]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Zack Greinke]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.chadmoriyama.com/?p=14655</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Opening Day for the Dodgers is Monday, and since Spring Training feels like it has taken forever, it&#8217;s about damn time. Given the closeness of the start of the season though, it&#8217;s a bit odd that there are so many question marks as to what will happen with the roster. Every team has to deal ...]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><img src="http://www.chadmoriyama.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/03/AWholeNewBlue-575x293.png" alt="AWholeNewBlue" width="575" height="293" class="aligncenter size-large wp-image-14659" /></p>
<p><strong>Opening Day</strong> for the <strong>Dodgers</strong> is Monday, and since <strong>Spring Training</strong> feels like it has taken forever, it&#8217;s about damn time. Given the closeness of the start of the season though, it&#8217;s a bit odd that there are so many question marks as to what will happen with the roster.</p>
<p>Every team has to deal with decisions on the 24th and 25th man, but it&#8217;s rare that a team with <strong>World Series</strong> hopes is still deciding on the rotation and the left side of the starting infield. Since the team&#8217;s starting SS is out for two months and there&#8217;s a surplus with eight starting pitchers, it&#8217;s anybody&#8217;s guess as to how it all shakes out.</p>
<p>Personally though, I have to figure the Opening Day 25-man roster looks something like what you see below.</p>
<p>&#8212;&#8211;</p>
<p><strong>Starting Lineup</strong></p>
<p>C &#8211; A.J. Ellis<br />
1B &#8211; Adrian Gonzalez<br />
2B &#8211; Mark Ellis<br />
3B &#8211; Jerry Hairston Jr.<br />
SS &#8211; Luis Cruz<br />
LF &#8211; Carl Crawford<br />
CF &#8211; Matt Kemp<br />
RF &#8211; Andre Ethier</p>
<p><u><strong>SS</strong></u> &#8211; <strong>Luis Cruz</strong> is a relatively easy choice for me at this spot. He plays solid defense at the position and is the best option available at the moment.</p>
<p>Yes, I&#8217;ve <a href="http://www.truebluela.com/2013/3/28/4159720/justin-sellers-dodgers-opening-day-roster-shortstop-luis-cruz" target="_blank">read the recent chatter</a> about <strong>Justin Sellers</strong> getting this spot, which I suppose is possible. However, realistically I can only see that happening if they release <strong>Juan Uribe</strong>, or they trade both <strong>Aaron Harang</strong> and <strong>Chris Capuano</strong> AND go with 11 pitchers, or they roll with no real backup outfielder (<strong>Jerry Hairston Jr.</strong>/<strong>Skip Schumaker</strong>).</p>
<p>My experience with <strong>Ned Colletti</strong> and Dodgers roster decision-making has led me to always go with the player who has experience, who is being paid by the team, and who is currently on the 40-man roster. Thus, no Sellers for me.</p>
<p><u><strong>3B</strong></u> &#8211; Jerry Hairston Jr. and Skip Schumaker should platoon here. Hairston doesn&#8217;t actually have much of a split (.712 LHP/.694 RHP), but Schumaker does (.762 RHP/.521 LHP). If <strong>Don Mattingly</strong> plays his cards right here, there an off-chance the Dodgers don&#8217;t actually lose much except upside for the two months Hanley&#8217;s out, primarily because he plays terrible defense.</p>
<p>The alternative of Sellers&#8217; .607 career MLB OPS, or his ~.700 career MILB OPS outside of the moon base in Albuquerque, is not appealing at all in lieu of an option like this. That logic HAS to win out, right? RIGHT?!</p>
<p><u><strong>LF</strong></u> &#8211; <strong>Carl Crawford</strong> certainly looks on pace even though his already weak throwing arm looks pathetic right now. Still, he&#8217;s swinging a bat and nothing is wrong with his legs, so I can&#8217;t see him starting the year on the DL.</p>
<p>&#8212;&#8211;</p>
<p><strong>Bench</strong></p>
<p>B &#8211; Tim Federowicz<br />
B &#8211; Nick Punto<br />
B &#8211; Skip Schumaker<br />
B &#8211; Juan Uribe<br />
B &#8211; Alex Castellanos</p>
<p>DL &#8211; Hanley Ramirez</p>
<p><u><strong>IF Bench</strong></u> &#8211; The trio of <strong>Nick Punto</strong>, Schumaker, and Uribe meet Colletti&#8217;s three standards, as reviewed above, so they&#8217;re basically locks to me. <strong>Tim Federowicz</strong> makes the team because they cut every other catcher in camp except <strong>Matt Wallach</strong>, and he&#8217;s not making the roster.</p>
<p><u><strong>OF Bench</strong></u> &#8211; Why <strong>Alex Castellanos</strong>, right? Why over <strong>Elian Herrera</strong> and <strong>Alfredo Amezaga</strong>? Amezaga is simple, as he&#8217;s not on the 40-man. Herrera, who I don&#8217;t think is a quality player anyway, doesn&#8217;t provide the potential pop off the bench the Dodgers SORELY lack at the moment. Not putting Castellanos on the bench means the Dodgers would have four hitters with no power &#8230; and Uribe, who can&#8217;t hit at all.</p>
<p>&#8212;&#8211;</p>
<p><strong>Starting Rotation</strong></p>
<p>1 &#8211; Clayton Kershaw<br />
2 &#8211; Zack Greinke<br />
3 &#8211; Josh Beckett<br />
4 &#8211; Chad Billingsley<br />
5 &#8211; Hyun Jin Ryu</p>
<p>The order is jumbled because of injury and what not, but this is what was projected at the end of the off-season, and while it&#8217;s been an adventure to get here, it&#8217;s basically worked out how it was supposed to.</p>
<p>That said, given the way the schedule looks, it&#8217;s possible that <strong>Chad Billingsley</strong> or <strong>Zack Greinke</strong> could be put on the DL and have their turn skipped a couple times while they work into shape (Greinke) or recover from injury (Billingsley). Either way though, that would only buy the team 10 games or so to do something before a roster decision would be forced.</p>
<p>&#8212;&#8211;</p>
<p><strong>Bullpen</strong></p>
<p>CL &#8211; Brandon League<br />
ST &#8211; Kenley Jansen<br />
RP &#8211; Ronald Belisario<br />
RP &#8211; J.P Howell<br />
RP &#8211; Matt Guerrier<br />
RP &#8211; Kevin Gregg<br />
RP &#8211; Aaron Harang</p>
<p>DL &#8211; Scott Elbert<br />
DL &#8211; Ted Lilly</p>
<p><u><strong>Lefty Reliever</strong></u> &#8211; Sorry <strong>Paco Rodriguez</strong>, you might be better than two, three, or even four pitchers in the bullpen, but you have options, so bye bye.</p>
<p><u><strong>Veteran Reliever</strong></u> &#8211; <strong>Kevin Gregg</strong> has a 0.87 ERA over 10.1 IP this spring, while <strong>Peter Moylan</strong> is at a 7.56 ERA in 8.1 IP. Colletti must have a NRI veteran reliever on the team, so it is Gregg. Plus, he has closing experience, which automatically makes him the best!</p>
<p><u><strong>Starter Turned Reliever</strong></u> &#8211; <strong>Ted Lilly</strong> has to end up on the DL because he looks fucking terrible. Don&#8217;t whine to me about language. It is what it is.</p>
<p>What happened to <strong>Chris Capuano</strong>? I think he gets traded and soon. I picked him to get dealt over <strong>Aaron Harang</strong> because he&#8217;s a better pitcher and more valuable to teams. That said, there&#8217;s an extremely compelling case for Capuano to be in the pen over Harang. It consists of Capuano saying that he can come out of the pen, while Mattingly said he sees Harang as a starter only. I get that, but unless the Dodgers want to get nothing in return, I can&#8217;t see why a team would settle for Harang when they could have Capuano, especially given their handedness.</p>
<p>Either way, I&#8217;m confident something of significance happens with a trade, because if not, I&#8217;m unsure how the pen would shake out unless they carry 13 pitchers. As mentioned earlier, an option would be putting Bills or Greinke on the DL, but that&#8217;s a stop-gap solution at best. I suppose Gregg could be let go, but we all know that would burn Ned&#8217;s soul, so I figure one of the two healthy excess starters won&#8217;t be a Dodger for long.</p>
<p>&#8212;&#8211;</p>
<p>Now we just wait for the announcement that Harang has been traded, Gregg has been cut, and Sellers will start at SS because &#8230; of course it would happen.</p>
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		<title>Injury Roll Call: Hanley surgery, out 2 months, Uribe says hi + Greinke &amp; Billingsley pain-free</title>
		<link>http://www.chadmoriyama.com/2013/03/injury-roll-call-hanley-needs-surgery-out-2-months-uribe-says-hi-greinke-billingsley-pain-free/</link>
		<comments>http://www.chadmoriyama.com/2013/03/injury-roll-call-hanley-needs-surgery-out-2-months-uribe-says-hi-greinke-billingsley-pain-free/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 21 Mar 2013 16:18:59 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Greg Zakwin</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Features]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Injury Roll Call]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Chad Billingsley]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Dee Gordon]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Hanley Ramirez]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Juan Uribe]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Los Angeles Dodgers]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Luis Cruz]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Nick Punto]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Skip Schumaker]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Spring Training]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Zack Greinke]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.chadmoriyama.com/?p=14486</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Hanley Ramirez needs surgery on his injured right thumb. Sources: Hanley needs surgery on his right thumb. #Dodgers. — Ken Rosenthal (@Ken_Rosenthal) March 21, 2013 Lame. The timetable for Hanley is eight weeks following the surgery, meaning at-best we&#8217;re probably looking at mid-May for Hanley&#8217;s 2013 debut. Well &#8230; say hello to a starting left ...]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><img src="http://www.chadmoriyama.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/10/HanleyRamirezISeeYou-575x383.jpg" alt="HanleyRamirezISeeYou" width="575" height="383" class="aligncenter size-large wp-image-12257" /></p>
<p><strong>Hanley Ramirez</strong> needs surgery on his injured right thumb.</p>
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p>Sources: Hanley needs surgery on his right thumb. <a href="https://twitter.com/search/%23Dodgers">#Dodgers</a>.</p>
<p>— Ken Rosenthal (@Ken_Rosenthal) <a href="https://twitter.com/Ken_Rosenthal/status/314766049079881728">March 21, 2013</a></p></blockquote>
<p>Lame.</p>
<p>The timetable for Hanley is <a href="https://twitter.com/truebluela/status/314769507161870337" target="_blank">eight weeks following the surgery</a>, meaning at-best we&#8217;re probably looking at mid-May for Hanley&#8217;s 2013 debut.</p>
<p>Well &#8230; say hello to a starting left side of the infield featuring <strong>Luis Cruz</strong> and some combination of <strong>Juan Uribe</strong>, <strong>Dee Gordon</strong>, <strong>Nick Punto</strong>, or <strong>Skip Schumaker</strong>.</p>
<p>Honestly, if those are the only options, I&#8217;m going with Uribe &#8211; and I can&#8217;t believe I&#8217;m typing that &#8211; as he&#8217;s at least <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=454&amp;position=SS#fieldingadvanced" target="_blank">excellent with the glove</a>.</p>
<p>&#8212;&#8211;</p>
<p><strong>Zack Greinke</strong> took to the mound Wednesday and reported no pain in his elbow <a href="https://twitter.com/Dodgers/status/314481661951746050" target="_blank">following a four-inning, 43-pitch outing</a>.</p>
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p>&#8220;Elbow wasn&#8217;t an issue today. I wasn&#8217;t worried about it. My arm felt really good and strong but the pitches aren&#8217;t 100% crisp yet.&#8221; -Greinke</p>
<p>— Los Angeles Dodgers (@Dodgers) <a href="https://twitter.com/Dodgers/status/314483842700410881">March 20, 2013</a></p></blockquote>
<p>And here are <a href="http://www.truebluela.com/2013/3/20/4129330/yasiel-puig-zack-greinke-dodgers-spring-training-2013" target="_blank">further details on the outing</a>, including the possibility that he could avoid the DL.</p>
<blockquote><p>Greinke threw 43 pitches in four scoreless innings, and Mattingly got good reports. He said Greinke was able to use all of his pitches and was sitting around 91-93 mph.</p>
<p>Greinke will next start Monday, and though there is a possibility that the Dodgers may have him throw in a minor league game in order to have the option to back date him on the disabled list, Mattingly hinted that might not be needed.</p>
<p>&#8220;We&#8217;ll keep playing all the scenarios as we go. The health theory is that we&#8217;d like to see him on the front fields. I think he wants to be on the front fields, too,&#8221; Mattingly said. &#8220;At this point if something flares up it&#8217;s probably more than a start anyway, so the DL is not going to matter.&#8221;</p></blockquote>
<p>So he&#8217;s either going to be ready for the season from the start or head to the DL and miss multiple starts, depending on how the rest of <strong>Spring Training</strong> goes for him.</p>
<p>The <strong>Dodgers</strong> will need Greinke at 100% for as much of the season as possible, so caution would be the way to go here.</p>
<p>&#8212;&#8211;</p>
<p><strong>Chad Billingsley</strong> threw a bullpen session Wednesday &#8211; minus his curve &#8211; and <a href="http://www.truebluela.com/2013/3/20/4128474/aaron-harang-joe-nuxhall" target="_blank">reported feeling no pain</a> in his <a href="http://www.chadmoriyama.com/2013/03/injury-roll-call-hanley-out-weeks-set-for-mri-greinke-ready-bills-hurts-everything-but-elbow/" target="_blank">elbow, groin, and finger</a>.</p>
<p>=====</p>
<p><em><strong>Greg Zakwin</strong> is the founder of the site <a href="http://plaschkethysweaterisargyle.blogspot.com/" target="_blank"><strong>Plaschke Thy Sweater Is Argyle</strong></a>. Follow him on Twitter <a href="http://www.twitter.com/ArgyledPlaschke" target="_blank"><strong>@ArgyledPlaschke</strong></a>.</em></p>
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		<slash:comments>4</slash:comments>
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		<title>ZiPS projects the 2013 Dodgers: Good but not great</title>
		<link>http://www.chadmoriyama.com/2013/02/zips-projects-the-2013-dodgers-good-but-not-great/</link>
		<comments>http://www.chadmoriyama.com/2013/02/zips-projects-the-2013-dodgers-good-but-not-great/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 05 Feb 2013 14:30:18 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Chad Moriyama</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Analysis]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Opinions]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[A.J. Ellis]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Aaron Harang]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Adrian Gonzalez]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Alex Castellanos]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Alfredo Amezaga]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Andre Ethier]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Arizona Diamondbacks]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Baseball Prospectus]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Brandon League]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Carl Crawford]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Chad Billingsley]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Chris Capuano]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Chris Reed]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Clayton Kershaw]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Coors Field]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Dan Szymborski]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Dee Gordon]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Elian Herrera]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Felix Hernandez]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Frank McCourt]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Garrett Gould]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Hanley Ramirez]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Hyun Jin Ryu]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[J.P. Howell]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Javy Guerra]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Jerry Hairston Jr.]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Joc Pederson]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Josh Beckett]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Juan Uribe]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Kenley Jansen]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Los Angeles Dodgers]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Luis Cruz]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Mark Ellis]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Matt Guerrier]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Matt Kemp]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Matt Magill]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Ned Colletti]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Nick Punto]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Paco Rodriguez]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Ronald Belisario]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[San Francisco Giants]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Scott Elbert]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Scott Van Slyke]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Shawn Tolleson]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Skip Schumaker]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[St. Louis Cardinals]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Stephen Fife]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Steven Ames]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Ted Lilly]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Tim Federowicz]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Tony Gwynn Jr.]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Zach Lee]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Zack Greinke]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[ZiPS]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.chadmoriyama.com/?p=13811</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[The 2013 projection for the Dodgers from Dan Szymborski&#8216;s ZiPS system was released last week, and given that it&#8217;s probably my favorite forecasting tool, it&#8217;s worth a look to see how the team fared. Forecasting is not a complete science, obviously, and I&#8217;ll address some of the potential pitfalls as we go along, but it&#8217;s ...]]></description>
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<p>The 2013 projection for the <strong>Dodgers</strong> from <strong>Dan Szymborski</strong>&#8216;s <strong>ZiPS</strong> system was <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/2013-zips-projections-los-angeles-dodgers/" target="_blank">released last week</a>, and given that it&#8217;s probably my favorite forecasting tool, it&#8217;s worth a look to see how the team fared.</p>
<p>Forecasting is not a complete science, obviously, and I&#8217;ll address some of the potential pitfalls as we go along, but it&#8217;s better to use objective tools like these than the hopes/dreams of fans or the bitterness/wishes of haters.</p>
<p>To start us off, how does the team fare, generally speaking? A solid playoff contender, for sure, but a super team? Doesn&#8217;t seem likely.</p>
<p>&#8212;&#8211;</p>
<p><u><strong>The Field Players</strong></u></p>
<p>Despite all the hype over the recent acquisitions, the key cogs in this machine are still <strong>Clayton Kershaw</strong> and <strong>Matt Kemp</strong>. It&#8217;s a promising sign then, that Kemp projects at a 144 OPS+ and the system has confidence in him continuing to put up offensive numbers in the ~.900 OPS range. His defense in center still lags below average, but his bat more than makes up for it. His playing time projection has dropped due to his injury woes last season, and quite frankly, it&#8217;s hard to fault it for that. Regardless, he still figures to be the most valuable field player on the team.</p>
<p><strong>Adrian Gonzalez</strong> is slated to be another bright spot, as ZiPS pegs him to bounceback a bit, though not as much as some want, clocking in at an ~.830 OPS/128 OPS+. That would still be his lowest OPS+ since 2008 (besides 2012, of course), but it&#8217;s a marked improvement considering his age and negatively trending skills. A-Gon compensates for that lagging bat a bit by putting up plus defense almost worth a win by itself. <strong>Hanley Ramirez</strong> factors in as yet another bounceback candidate, projecting at a 115 OPS+, which is an upgrade over last year&#8217;s 106 and is closer to his pre-2011 production. Defensively, even his horribad -8 run defensive rating is optimistic to me, as he was truly terrible with the glove last year. Given that I already wanted to barf seeing him trying to turn a double play in 2012, I wouldn&#8217;t be surprised at all to see him put up horrid defensive numbers after basically not playing the position all of spring.</p>
<p>Unfortunately, that&#8217;s where a lot of the offensive optimism ends. <strong>Luis Cruz</strong> checks in at 84 OPS+ (106 last year), which will anger many fans, but is completely reasonable given the track record. He remains valuable through plus defense, though given the sample size, there&#8217;s reason to be skeptical there as well. <strong>A.J. Ellis</strong> at 96 OPS+ (118) is another depressing but completely logical projection, as evidenced by everybody&#8217;s surprise in 2012 at his potent bat. <strong>Andre Ethier</strong> at 112 OPS+ (123) is hard to figure for me, because he has been consistently putting up ~120 OPS+ seasons even if it has come down from the ~130 OPS+ range two years ago. I suppose the projection system thinks he&#8217;ll get old in a hurry &#8230; or maybe it just thinks he&#8217;ll face an inordinately high amount of lefties. <strong>Mark Ellis</strong> at 81 OPS+ (93) shouldn&#8217;t be much of a surprise considering he&#8217;s 36 and put up an 80 OPS+ at <strong>Coors Field</strong> in 2011.</p>
<p>The last guy of the starters is <strong>Carl Crawford</strong>, who is the enigma of the 2013 season. He checks in at 104, which is notable because it&#8217;s basically his career OPS+ and it&#8217;s about what he did in limited time in 2012 over in Boston. That&#8217;s of particular note for me, because what he did in Boston in 2012 can be attributed to <a href="http://www.chadmoriyama.com/2012/10/carl-crawford-mechanics-analysis-for-baseball-proguestus-over-at-baseball-prospectus/" target="_blank">a mechanical fix that I pointed out in an article for <strong>Baseball Prospectus</strong></a>. Understandably, his playing time checks in low, but if he can produce like he did in 2012 but over a whole season, the Dodgers will be much better for it.</p>
<p>Overall, after fixing the playing time of A.J., adjusting Ethier&#8217;s offense up a bit, and adjusting Hanley&#8217;s defense down a bit, the starting lineup totaled about <strong>22 WAR</strong>.</p>
<p>&#8212;&#8211;</p>
<p><u><strong>The Bench &#038; The Prospects</strong></u></p>
<p>Assuming a bench of <strong>Tim Federowicz</strong>, <strong>Scott Van Slyke</strong> or <strong>Alex Castellanos</strong>, <strong>Jerry Hairston Jr.</strong>, <strong>Nick Punto</strong>, and <strong>Skip Schumaker</strong>, we&#8217;re looking at around <strong>3 WAR</strong> here after playing time is adjusted back to realistic bench levels. I&#8217;m guessing <strong>Alfredo Amezaga</strong> or <strong>Tony Gwynn Jr.</strong> work their way in somehow, but a five-man bench seems likely initially if the Dodgers can&#8217;t deal multiple pitchers before the season starts. Neither player would affect the WAR projection much though.</p>
<p>Honestly? I have to hope the Dodgers do something to improve the bench, because the current configuration looks rather mediocre, and the other options are keeping <strong>Juan Uribe</strong> and/or <strong>Elian Herrera</strong>. Yuck.</p>
<p>The good news is that <strong>Joc Pederson</strong>, T-Fed, SVS, and Castle are projected to be solid at the MLB level, though it sees <strong>Dee Gordon</strong> basically languishing behind.</p>
<p>&#8212;&#8211;</p>
<p><u><strong>The Rotation</strong></u></p>
<p>Clayton Kershaw is simply a beast, and he figures to check in with a 75 FIP-. This might seem high considering his 2011 and 2012 ERA- figures of 63 and 67, respectively, but when you consider that <strong>Felix Hernandez</strong> clocks in at 78 FIP- for 2013, you get the picture.</p>
<p>What might surprise is how close new acquisition <strong>Zack Greinke</strong> comes in behind him, as he figures to put up an FIP- of 81. Granted, he has always projected favorably, as his career FIP- is 80, while his career ERA- is 88, but even adjusting slightly for that, there&#8217;s a definite case there for the best 1-2 punch in the majors.</p>
<p>Unfortunately, this is where it gets murky, as <strong>Chad Billingsley</strong> has the stuff to be the #3, but if I were a betting man, I would bet his elbow implodes before July. He projects at 92 FIP-, which would put him around last year&#8217;s performance, which was his arguably his best season since 2008. However, given <a href="http://www.mikesciosciastragicillness.com/2013/01/29/chad-billingsley-delaying-the-inevitable/14406" target="_blank">the nature of his injury and its history in the league</a>, you can basically never rely on him to stay healthy again until he has Tommy John surgery.</p>
<p>Next in the pecking order are <strong>Josh Beckett</strong>, who comes in below-average at 103, and foreign import <strong>Hyun Jin Ryu</strong>, who comes in well below-average at 116. As mentioned before, <a href="http://www.chadmoriyama.com/2012/08/trade-analysis-dodgers-blockbuster-improves-team-but-carries-significant-risk-gif-reactions/" target="_blank">the scouting reports for Beckett match</a> this projection, as he&#8217;s no longer a front-line starter due to his decrease in velocity. However, if he can manage to learn to pitch a bit more, he still has the curve to perhaps slot in as a #3 more than a #4. Ryu is a case where I would take any projection with a mound of salt, because there&#8217;s hardly anything to base objective projections on. Personally, I don&#8217;t think Ryu has the stuff to be a #2, nor do I think he&#8217;ll be a #3 on a team with a $250 million payroll, but he should slot in comfortably in the back-end of the rotation for years. I would project something slightly below-average for 2013 and then hope for better.</p>
<p>The rotation is a strong point because it has both arguably the best 1-2 punch in the majors and depth, with <strong>Chris Capuano</strong> (108 FIP-) and <strong>Aaron Harang</strong> (114 FIP) presumably traded for upgrades (or maybe kept somehow?), and it checks in at about <strong>17 WAR</strong>.</p>
<p>&#8212;&#8211;</p>
<p><u><strong>The Bullpen &#038; The Prospects</strong></u></p>
<p>As of right now, I&#8217;m assuming a bullpen of <strong>Brandon League</strong>, <strong>Kenley Jansen</strong>, <strong>Ronald Belisario</strong>, <strong>Javy Guerra</strong>, <strong>Matt Guerrier</strong>, <strong>J.P. Howell</strong>, and <strong>Ted Lilly</strong>.</p>
<p>Jansen is the best of the bunch (63 FIP-) and League projects a distant second (92 FIP-), but Belisario has the most upside in these projections (101 FIP-). After that, Guerra, Guerrier, and Howell are all around replacement level. Lilly projects as a league-average pitcher, assuming he&#8217;s healthy, which would be a boon to a team that has a ticking time bomb in the rotation.</p>
<p>As far as prospects go, ZiPS thinks <strong>Chris Reed</strong> could be a replacement-level fill-in right now, but <strong>Zach Lee</strong>, <strong>Matt Magill</strong>, and <strong>Garrett Gould</strong> need more seasoning. And for all of you who have <strong>Stephen Fife</strong> wet dreams (yes, you&#8217;re out there), he projects at a 4.91 FIP, so keep it in your pants.</p>
<p>Speaking of replacement level, that especially applies to the Dodgers bullpen because of <strong>Shawn Tolleson</strong>, <strong>Scott Elbert</strong>, <strong>Steven Ames</strong>, and <strong>Paco Rodriguez</strong>, so the <strong>4 WAR</strong> projection for this pen figures to be solid.</p>
<p>&#8212;&#8211;</p>
<p><u><strong>Team Projection</strong></u></p>
<p>A replacement-level team figures to win 43 games, and the team with the lowest amount of wins to get into the playoffs last year was the <strong>Cardinals</strong> at 88 wins, so 42 WAR puts you in the contender range and 45 WAR makes you viable, while 50 WAR will generally make a team a safe bet to be in the postseason. The Dodgers total <strong>46 WAR</strong>, which puts them well within the playoff hunt: good but not great.</p>
<p>The Dodgers basically project neck-and-neck with the rival <strong>Giants</strong>, while the <strong>D-Backs</strong> lag behind a bit by maybe a half dozen wins or so, but they&#8217;re well within striking distance as well.</p>
<p>So make no mistake, the Dodgers recent spending habits did not make them an elite team, as the money simply duct-taped over both a flawed team and farm system depleted by <strong>Frank McCourt</strong>&#8216;s ownership and <strong>Ned Colletti</strong>&#8216;s questionable decisions. But that&#8217;s not to denigrate the job the new owners have done, as they turned the franchise into a legitimate playoff contender seemingly overnight, which is still saying a lot about what money can do.</p>
<p>Granted, &#8220;we gave you a team that has the chance to make the playoffs&#8221; is not what fans want to hear, but it&#8217;s an acceptable scenario as they lay the foundation to rebuild the franchise the correct way in their own minds. The 2013 projections might not reflect world-beaters like most seem to expect, but it&#8217;s a projection based on historical trends rather than hopes and dreams.</p>
<p>The 2013 Dodgers are indeed a team with a lot of upside, and if everything breaks correctly, they could very well end up being one of the best teams in the league, but they also carry a ton of inherent age and injury risk, which is why the projections come in understandably conservative. Either way, if nothing else, this team figures to be never boring.</p>
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		<title>Making Moves: Gwynn NRI, Schumaker Trade, Van Slyke DFA, Greinke/A-Gon Contracts</title>
		<link>http://www.chadmoriyama.com/2012/12/making-moves-gwynn-nri-schumaker-trade-van-slyke-dfa-greinkea-gon-contracts/</link>
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		<pubDate>Mon, 17 Dec 2012 13:03:54 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Greg Zakwin</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Features]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Making Moves]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Adrian Gonzalez]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Boston Red Sox]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Dylan Hernandez]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Jake Lemmerman]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Los Angeles Dodgers]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Scott Van Slyke]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Skip Schumaker]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Spring Training]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[St. Louis Cardinals]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Tony Gwynn Jr.]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Zack Greinke]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.chadmoriyama.com/?p=13136</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Dylan Hernandez reports the Dodgers have acquired Skip Schumaker from the Cardinals, sending minor-league shortstop Jake Lemmerman the other way. Chad has more on the deal here. My reaction: meh. &#8212;&#8211; The Dodgers have designated Scott Van Slyke for assignment in order to make room on the 40-man roster for Schumaker. Van Slyke was the ...]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><img class="aligncenter size-large wp-image-13137" alt="TonyGwynnJrSwing" src="http://www.chadmoriyama.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/12/TonyGwynnJrSwing-575x382.jpg" width="575" height="382" /></p>
<p><strong>Dylan Hernandez</strong> reports the <strong>Dodgers</strong> <a href="https://twitter.com/dylanohernandez/status/278713430515535873" target="_blank">have acquired</a> <strong>Skip Schumaker</strong> from the <strong>Cardinals</strong>, sending minor-league shortstop <strong>Jake Lemmerman</strong> the other way. Chad has <a href="http://www.chadmoriyama.com/2012/12/dodgers-trade-jake-lemmerman-to-the-cardinals-for-skip-schumaker/" target="_blank">more on the deal here</a>.</p>
<p>My reaction: meh.</p>
<p>&#8212;&#8211;</p>
<p>The <a href="https://twitter.com/Dodgers/status/279036433203863552" target="_blank">Dodgers have designated</a> <strong>Scott Van Slyke</strong> for assignment in order to make room on the 40-man roster for Schumaker. Van Slyke was the Dodgers&#8217; 2011 <a href="http://www.truebluela.com/2012/12/12/3760942/scott-van-slyke-dfa" target="_blank">Minor League Player Of The Year</a>.</p>
<p>Van Slyke is unlikely to clear waivers, so there&#8217;s a good chance he gets traded in a minor deal.</p>
<p>&#8212;&#8211;</p>
<p><strong>Tony Gwynn Jr.</strong> has <a href="http://www.truebluela.com/nri/2012/12/11/3753934/tony-gwynn-jr-nri-dodgers" target="_blank">received an invitation</a> to <strong>Spring Training</strong> as a non-roster invitee, as he&#8217;s still under contract for 2013 but is not on the 40-man roster.</p>
<p>&#8212;&#8211;</p>
<p>The <strong>Red Sox</strong> <a href="http://boston.cbslocal.com/2012/12/12/red-sox-to-send-dodgers-11-7-million-in-cash/" target="_blank">will send $11.7 million dollars westward</a> to the Dodgers as part of the mega-deal centered around <strong>Adrian Gonzalez</strong>. The payments will come in three equal installments of $3.9 million, to be made in 2013, 2014, and 2015, and they will conclude the deal.</p>
<p>&#8212;&#8211;</p>
<p><strong>Zack Greinke</strong>&#8216;s contract with the Dodgers <a href="http://www.chadmoriyama.com/2012/12/dodgers-sign-zack-greinke-to-6-year147-million-contract/" target="_blank">is $147 million guaranteed</a>, but it <a href="http://www.latimes.com/sports/dodgersnow/la-sp-dn-zack-greinkes-contract-with-dodgers-could-be-worth-158-million-20121214,0,1895007.story" target="_blank">could increase</a> to $158 million with incentives.</p>
<p>=====</p>
<p><em><strong>Greg Zakwin</strong> is the founder of the site <a href="http://plaschkethysweaterisargyle.blogspot.com/" target="_blank"><strong>Plaschke Thy Sweater Is Argyle</strong></a>. Follow him on Twitter <a href="http://www.twitter.com/ArgyledPlaschke" target="_blank"><strong>@ArgyledPlaschke</strong></a>.</em></p>
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		<title>Dodgers trade Jake Lemmerman to the Cardinals for Skip Schumaker</title>
		<link>http://www.chadmoriyama.com/2012/12/dodgers-trade-jake-lemmerman-to-the-cardinals-for-skip-schumaker/</link>
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		<pubDate>Wed, 12 Dec 2012 06:25:04 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Chad Moriyama</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Analysis]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Transactions]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Jake Lemmerman]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Los Angeles Dodgers]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Mike Petriello]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Skip Schumaker]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[St. Louis Cardinals]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.chadmoriyama.com/?p=13159</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[The Dodgers have acquired Cardinals utility man Skip Schumaker in exchange for minor-league shortstop Jake Lemmerman, according to Mike Petriello. Tonight — well, tomorrow, perhaps, by the time it’s official — that may change. Multiple sources tell me that the Dodgers are in agreement with St. Louis on a deal that would send minor league ...]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><img src="http://www.chadmoriyama.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/12/SkipSchumaker-575x414.jpg" alt="SkipSchumaker" width="575" height="414" class="aligncenter size-large wp-image-13160" /></p>
<p>The <strong>Dodgers</strong> have acquired <strong>Cardinals</strong> utility man <strong>Skip Schumaker</strong> in exchange for minor-league shortstop <strong>Jake Lemmerman</strong>, <a href="http://www.mikesciosciastragicillness.com/2012/12/11/sources-dodgers-to-acquire-skip-schumaker-for-jake-lemmerman/15012" target="_blank">according</a> to <strong>Mike Petriello</strong>.</p>
<blockquote><p>Tonight — well, tomorrow, perhaps, by the time it’s official — that may change. Multiple sources tell me that the Dodgers are in agreement with St. Louis on a deal that would send minor league shortstop Jake Lemmerman for veteran Skip Schumaker.</p></blockquote>
<p>This has been rumored for a while, and back when it was announced that a deal was likely at some point, I <a href="http://www.chadmoriyama.com/2012/12/winter-meetings-2012-ryu-offer-rejected-greinkes-price-up-capuanoharanguribe-shopped/ " target="_blank">gave my thoughts</a> on Schumaker.</p>
<blockquote><p>He plays second, left field, center field, and right field, so there’s versatility there, but he’s a terrible defender at second, a bad one in center, and just solid-average in the corners. Over the last three seasons, since he turned 30, he’s had an OPS+ of 88.</p>
<p>Not so thrilled, really.</p></blockquote>
<p>He&#8217;ll be 33 next season and had a .276/.339/.368/.707 line in 2012, as well as a career .288/.345/.377/.722 line. Other than that though, the upside is that he has a pronounced platoon split, hitting .305/.359/.403/.762 against righties in his career versus .205/.276/.245/.521 against lefties. So if he&#8217;s used carefully, there&#8217;s offensive value to extract.</p>
<p>Unfortunately, as stated in the quote above, while he can play a few positions, he&#8217;s really not good at any of them, so he lacks true versatility, IMO. Additionally, as we learned when the Dodgers acquired both <strong>Hyun Jin Ryu</strong> and <strong>Zack Greinke</strong>, their 40-man roster is now full, so a corresponding move will have to be made.</p>
<p>&#8212;&#8211;</p>
<p><strong>Jake Lemmerman</strong> is a shortstop that was selected by the Dodgers in the fifth round of the <strong>2010 MLB Draft</strong>. 2012 was his age 23 season, and he hit .233/.347/.378/.725 in AA.</p>
<p>Prior to 2012, I had him outside of my top 25 prospects in the system, and his 2012 didn&#8217;t do anything to change that.</p>
<p>As such, while I&#8217;m not exactly thrilled with Schumaker occupying a roster spot, the return for him wasn&#8217;t significant.</p>
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		<title>Rumor Mill: Zack Greinke consensus shifts to Texas, Dee Gordon trade destinations expand</title>
		<link>http://www.chadmoriyama.com/2012/12/rumor-mill-zack-greinke-consensus-shifts-to-texas-dee-gordon-trade-destinations-expand/</link>
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		<pubDate>Sat, 08 Dec 2012 14:27:52 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Chad Moriyama</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Analysis]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Rumors]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Dee Gordon]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Jayson Stark]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Jim Bowden]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Jon Heyman]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Jon Paul Morosi]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Juan Pierre]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Justin Upton]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Ken Rosenthal]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Los Angeles Dodgers]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Mark Saxon]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Ned Colletti]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Skip Schumaker]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Zack Greinke]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.chadmoriyama.com/?p=12985</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[The tide has shifted completely in the Zack Greinke sweepstakes with sources now almost universally agreeing that the Rangers are the favorites. Ken Rosenthal and Jon Paul Morosi speculate that their push for Justin Upton is born out of confidence regarding Greinke. The Rangers’ fervent push for Upton, according to one rival executive, is an ...]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><img src="http://www.chadmoriyama.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/12/ZackGreinkeNotAmused-575x382.jpeg" alt="" title="ZackGreinkeNotAmused" width="575" height="382" class="aligncenter size-large wp-image-12993" /></p>
<p><a href="http://www.chadmoriyama.com/2012/12/2012-winter-meetings-greinke-talk-posturing-on-ryu-dickey-shields-among-targets/" target="_blank">The tide has shifted completely</a> in the <strong>Zack Greinke</strong> sweepstakes with sources now almost universally agreeing that the <strong>Rangers</strong> are the favorites.</p>
<p><strong>Ken Rosenthal</strong> and <strong>Jon Paul Morosi</strong> speculate that their push for <strong>Justin Upton</strong> is born out of <a href="http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/texas-rangers-arizona-diamondbacks-justin-upton-asdrubal-cabrera-driving-winter-meeting-blockbuster-talks-120612" target="_blank">confidence regarding Greinke</a>.</p>
<blockquote><p>The Rangers’ fervent push for Upton, according to one rival executive, is an indication of their confidence in landing Greinke, who also is being pursued by the Los Angeles Dodgers.</p></blockquote>
<p>Later, on Twitter, Rosenthal <a href="https://twitter.com/Ken_Rosenthal/statuses/276824644659585025" target="_blank">said that</a> the <strong>Dodgers</strong> are considering pulling out of Greinke negotiations all together.</p>
<p><strong>Mark Saxon</strong> <a href="http://espn.go.com/los-angeles/mlb/story/_/id/8720369/zack-greinke-unlikely-land-los-angeles-dodgers-stay-los-angeles-angels" target="_blank">got quotes</a> from <strong>Ned Colletti</strong> expressing pessimism.</p>
<blockquote><p>Asked if he was on the &#8220;doorstep&#8221; of acquiring Greinke, Dodgers general manager Ned Colletti said: &#8220;We&#8217;re not on the front lawn. &#8230; We&#8217;re barely out of the car at the curb. It&#8217;s better than driving around the neighborhood looking for the house. We know where the house is located. We just can&#8217;t seem to get out of the car.&#8221;</p>
<p>The Dodgers began negotiations with Greinke&#8217;s agent, Casey Close, in Nashville, but it doesn&#8217;t appear that they have made a formal offer to this point. Speculation is that Greinke could command a record deal for a right-hander &#8212; in the six-year, $150 million range.</p>
<p>Given the Dodgers&#8217; deep pockets, it&#8217;s unlikely they would be outbid for Greinke, so it&#8217;s possible he prefers to pitch in another city. Reports indicated he was leaning toward the Texas Rangers.</p></blockquote>
<p><strong>Jon Heyman</strong> <a href="http://www.cbssports.com/mlb/blog/jon-heyman/21297683/dodgers-starting-to-wonder-whether-greinke-may-prefer-texas" target="_blank">relays</a> much of the same sentiment.</p>
<blockquote><p>Dodgers people have begun to sound a bit less optimistic within the last day or so about their pursuit of star free-agent pitcher Zack Greinke. And although there&#8217;s no evidence anything is close or decided in Texas&#8217; favor, a couple of Dodgers people even suggested that they are beginning to wonder whether Greinke may simply prefer the Rangers.</p></blockquote>
<p>Just piling on at this point, <strong>Jim Bowden</strong> <a href="https://twitter.com/JimBowdenESPNxm/statuses/277181758452150274" target="_blank">says</a> Greinke is impressed with the Rangers organization.</p>
<blockquote><p>A source has told me that Greinke was blown away by Nolan Ryan and Rangers Front Office..loves the ML team, prospects and chances to Win WS</p></blockquote>
<p>So yeah, it&#8217;s safe to say that the momentum has shifted from the Dodgers to the Rangers for whatever reason, but whether this remains legit or is being fed to the press in order to drive up prices, or whatever else, is still unknown.</p>
<p>Like many of you, I&#8217;m just getting tired of the saga already because it holds up all of free agency, but then again, nobody said the rest have to wait for Greinke. He&#8217;s free to do things at his own pace if he so chooses, especially considering that he&#8217;s looking at committing the next 6 to 8 years of his life to a location.</p>
<p>&#8212;&#8211;</p>
<p>The suitors for <strong>Dee Gordon</strong> now total four, with the <strong>Braves</strong> and the <strong>Phillies</strong> now apparently in as well, <a href="https://twitter.com/jaysonst/status/277133704177008640" target="_blank">according</a> to <strong>Jayson Stark</strong>.</p>
<blockquote><p>#Indians, #Mariners, #Braves &#038; #Phillies among teams I heard asked #Dodgers about Dee Gordon. It appears all but Seat would try him in OF. </p></blockquote>
<p>Not seeing what the return would be from those teams, so there must be other things at work in the background here if this trade were to happen.</p>
<p>Honestly though, I&#8217;m not seeing the upside in moving him to the outfield. The potential for him to be an MLB regular contributor came with the value of him playing shortstop, where his bat could be decidedly below average but he could still have value. In center or, even worse, left or right, he would basically be relegated to the upside of a poor man&#8217;s <strong>Juan Pierre</strong>. Say what you want about Pierre, but Gordon&#8217;s talent with the bat isn&#8217;t anywhere close to Pierre&#8217;s right now, and I&#8217;m not sure it&#8217;ll ever get there.</p>
<p>&#8212;&#8211;</p>
<p><a href="http://www.chadmoriyama.com/2012/12/winter-meetings-2012-ryu-offer-rejected-greinkes-price-up-capuanoharanguribe-shopped/" target="_blank">Confirming a previous rumor</a>, it was reiterated that the Dodgers have interest in <strong>Skip Schumaker</strong>.</p>
<blockquote><p>The Dodgers and Twins are among the teams that have some level of interest in Cardinals bench player Skip Schumaker, Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reports.</p></blockquote>
<p><a href="http://www.chadmoriyama.com/2012/12/winter-meetings-2012-ryu-offer-rejected-greinkes-price-up-capuanoharanguribe-shopped/" target="_blank">I gave my thoughts on him</a> the first time his name came up.</p>
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		<title>2012 Winter Meetings: Ryu offer rejected, Greinke&#8217;s price up, Capuano/Harang/Uribe shopped</title>
		<link>http://www.chadmoriyama.com/2012/12/winter-meetings-2012-ryu-offer-rejected-greinkes-price-up-capuanoharanguribe-shopped/</link>
		<comments>http://www.chadmoriyama.com/2012/12/winter-meetings-2012-ryu-offer-rejected-greinkes-price-up-capuanoharanguribe-shopped/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 05 Dec 2012 12:20:49 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Chad Moriyama</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Analysis]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Rumors]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Aaron Harang]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Alex Liddi]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Bill Shaikin]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Chris Capuano]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Corey Seager]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Danny Knobler]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Dee Gordon]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Dylan Hernandez]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Felix Hernandez]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Hyun Jin Ryu]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[James Shields]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[John Harper]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Jon Heyman]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Jon Paul Morosi]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Josh Hamilton]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Juan Uribe]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Ken Rosenthal]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Kyle Seager]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Los Angeles Dodgers]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Mark Saxon]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Ned Colletti]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[R.A. Dickey]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Scott Boras]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Skip Schumaker]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Vinnie Catricala]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Winter Meetings]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Zach Lee]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Zack Greinke]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.chadmoriyama.com/?p=12931</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[The Dodgers made an offer to Hyun Jin Ryu, but it was rejected by Scott Boras, according to Ned Colletti. The Dodgers made a long-term offer to Korean pitcher Ryu Hyun-jin on Tuesday, but it was rejected by agent Scott Boras. &#8220;Predictably, it fell a tad short,&#8221; said general manager Ned Colletti. The Dodgers have ...]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><img src="http://www.chadmoriyama.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/11/HyunJinRyu.jpg" alt="" title="HyunJinRyu" width="450" height="322" class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-12577" /></p>
<p>The <strong>Dodgers</strong> <a href="http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20121204&#038;content_id=40528246" target="_blank">made an offer</a> to <strong>Hyun Jin Ryu</strong>, but it was rejected by <strong>Scott Boras</strong>, according to <strong>Ned Colletti</strong>.</p>
<blockquote><p>The Dodgers made a long-term offer to Korean pitcher Ryu Hyun-jin on Tuesday, but it was rejected by agent Scott Boras.</p>
<p>&#8220;Predictably, it fell a tad short,&#8221; said general manager Ned Colletti.</p></blockquote>
<blockquote><p>The Dodgers have until Sunday to sign Ryu or they lose exclusive negotiating rights and their $25.7 million posting fee is refunded.</p>
<p>&#8220;We&#8217;re debating our next step,&#8221; said Colletti. &#8220;I don&#8217;t believe we&#8217;re close right now.&#8221;</p></blockquote>
<p><a href="http://www.chadmoriyama.com/2012/12/2012-winter-meetings-greinke-talk-posturing-on-ryu-dickey-shields-among-targets/" target="_blank">As I said yesterday</a>, I still think this is all posturing by both sides to get the best deal possible.</p>
<p>For <a href="http://www.latimes.com/sports/dodgersnow/la-sp-dn-dodgers-offer-to-ryu-hyunjin-rejected-20121204,0,7524799.story " target="_blank">his part</a>, Boras later clarified the situation to <strong>Dylan Hernandez</strong>.</p>
<blockquote>[Updated at 5:35 p.m.: Ryu's agent, Scott Boras, said he presented the Dodgers with a counteroffer. "We exchanged offers, and negotiations continue," Boras said.]
<p>Boras, said his client should be compensated like a major league No. 3 starter. So, presumably, he’s looking for something in the $50-million range. [Updated at 9:45 p.m.: This estimate was high, according to a person familiar with the discussions.]</blockquote>
<p>The reasons for the Dodgers wanting to wait should be obvious, because if they sign <strong>Zack Greinke</strong> and trade for <strong>James Shields</strong> or something of the sort, then their leverage in negotiations with Ryu becomes extremely one-sided.</p>
<p>For now? Just have to wait it out.</p>
<p>&#8212;&#8211;</p>
<p>Speaking of Greinke, the Dodgers and <strong>Rangers</strong> are <a href="http://www.cbssports.com/mlb/blog/jon-heyman/21265126/rangers-dodgers-believed-to-be-battling-for-greinke-at-moment " target="_blank">apparently in a bidding war</a> of sorts, according to <strong>Jon Heyman</strong>.</p>
<blockquote><p>The Dodgers have been viewed as a fairly clear favorite for Greinke, but Texas is showing signs of determination, according to major-league sources.</p>
<p>The Dodgers are seen as having an almost unlimited payroll, but people familiar with the happenings now suggest the derby could go either way. Not many teams could hope to go dollar-for-dollar against the Dodgers, but the Rangers are trying to do just that.</p>
<p>The bidding is said by major-league officials to be &#8220;quite high&#8221; now, with two people pegging the dollar amount at about $160 million. And that&#8217;s with the deal not done yet. There seems an extreme likelhood now that Greinke will not only set a record for righthanded pitcher but for any pitcher, which is currently held by CC Sabathia, who signed for $161 million and seven years with the Yankees.</p>
<p>Some have suggested they could even see the Greinke deal reaching toward the $175-million mark.</p></blockquote>
<p>This situation, however, could be severely impacted by the Rangers negotiations with <strong>Josh Hamilton</strong>, according to <strong>Danny Knobler</strong>, as <a href="http://www.cbssports.com/mlb/blog/danny-knobler/21268369/for-the-rangers-its-likely-greinke-or-hamilton-not-greinke-and-hamilton" target="_blank">they probably won&#8217;t sign both</a>.</p>
<blockquote><p>But one scenario they don&#8217;t see happening, according to sources, is a double free-agent signing of both Greinke and Hamilton.</p></blockquote>
<p>And they certainly seem on pace to sign one or the other, <a href="http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2012/12/rangers-rumors-hamilton-greinke.html " target="_blank">according</a> to <strong>Ken Rosenthal</strong>.</p>
<p>For his part, <strong>Jon Paul Morosi</strong> is of <a href="https://twitter.com/jonmorosi/statuses/276099633544036352" target="_blank">the belief</a> that the Dodgers are the clear favorite, while <strong>Bill Shaikin</strong> <a href="https://twitter.com/BillShaikin/statuses/276108686466875393" target="_blank">adds</a> that this drama may not be over by the time the <strong>Winter Meetings</strong> conclude.</p>
<p>&#8212;&#8211;</p>
<p>Connected to Greinke in a way, the Dodgers are <a href="https://twitter.com/pgammo/statuses/276128573377613825 " target="_blank">apparently shopping</a> <strong>Chris Capuano</strong> and <strong>Aaron Harang</strong> <a href="https://twitter.com/jonmorosi/statuses/276084118498979840" target="_blank">to whoever</a>.</p>
<blockquote><p>One exec says &#8220;Dodgers shopping Capuano and Harang around lobby. Greinke and Rhu, or Greinke and Sanchez or Dempster?&#8221;</p></blockquote>
<blockquote><p>#Dodgers becoming aggressive in shopping Harang and Capuano, source says. Could be a sign of confidence in landing Zack Greinke. @MLBONFOX</p></blockquote>
<p>I doubt either of them would be hard to deal at any point in the off-season. Both are on short-term deals, the Dodgers could eat money if necessary, and the return demands probably won&#8217;t be significant.</p>
<p>&#8212;&#8211;</p>
<p><u><strong>COMEDY BREAK</strong></u></p>
<p>The Dodgers are running around <a href="http://espn.go.com/blog/los-angeles/dodger-report/post/_/id/3411/dodgers-shopping-juan-uribe" target="_blank">shopping</a> <strong>Juan Uribe</strong>!</p>
<blockquote><p>One of the agendas the Dodgers are pushing aggressively in the lobby is to find a trade partner to take utility infielder Juan Uribe. Needless to say, the Dodgers are garnering little interest unless they&#8217;re willing to pay his entire contract. Uribe, who has batted .199 the past two seasons combined, is entering the final year of a three-year, $21 million contract.</p></blockquote>
<p>What a disaster.</p>
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p>Asked an MLB official if <a href="https://twitter.com/search/%23Dodgers">#Dodgers</a> might be able to interest <a href="https://twitter.com/search/%23Yankees">#Yankees</a> in Juan Uribe with A-Rod injured. The guy chuckled.</p>
<p>&mdash; Bill Shaikin (@BillShaikin) <a href="https://twitter.com/BillShaikin/status/276068986679091200" data-datetime="2012-12-04T21:02:30+00:00">December 4, 2012</a></p></blockquote>
<p>It&#8217;s become a punchline, as it should, really.</p>
<p>&#8212;&#8211;</p>
<p><strong>Dee Gordon</strong> <a href="http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2012/12/mariners-interested-in-dee-gordon.html" target="_blank">appears to be</a> a popular target for teams, including the <strong>Mariners</strong>.</p>
<blockquote><p>The Dodgers are fielding tons of inquiries on shortstop Dee Gordon, tweets Scott Miller of CBS Sports, though they&#8217;re not looking to deal him.  The Mariners are among the teams hitting the Dodgers hard on Gordon, tweets Miller.</p></blockquote>
<p>I&#8217;ve given <a href="http://www.chadmoriyama.com/2012/12/winter-meetings-shohei-otanis-second-thoughts-dee-gordon-shopped-james-loney-signs/" target="_blank">my thoughts on Dee previously</a>, though I&#8217;m not sure what the Mariners have that the Dodgers want.</p>
<p>No, it&#8217;s not <strong>Felix Hernandez</strong>. Stop.</p>
<p>I&#8217;m thinking more along the lines of <strong>Kyle Seager</strong>, <strong>Corey Seager</strong>&#8216;s older brother. The Mariners have <strong>Alex Liddi</strong> and <strong>Vinnie Catricala</strong>.</p>
<p>&#8212;&#8211;</p>
<p>Perhaps the <strong>R.A. Dickey</strong> rumors have some legs after all?</p>
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p>Hearing Dodgers thinking big, have strong interest in Dickey even if they sign Grienke. But they don&#8217;t have good young OF to trade.</p>
<p>&mdash; John Harper (@NYDNHarper) <a href="https://twitter.com/NYDNHarper/status/276075183612239873" data-datetime="2012-12-04T21:27:07+00:00">December 4, 2012</a></p></blockquote>
<p><script src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script></p>
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p>Source says Mets could get speedy SS Dee Gordon and top pitching prospect Zach Lee from Dodgers for Dickey. But that doesn&#8217;t help OF.</p>
<p>&mdash; John Harper (@NYDNHarper) <a href="https://twitter.com/NYDNHarper/status/276076782808076288" data-datetime="2012-12-04T21:33:28+00:00">December 4, 2012</a></p></blockquote>
<p><script src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script></p>
<p>That would be &#8230; a lot for a rental.</p>
<p>Still not sure I buy the interest as legit either. Not yet, at least.</p>
<p>&#8212;&#8211;</p>
<p>In interest of filling out their bench, the Dodgers are apparently <a href="https://twitter.com/DKnobler/statuses/276124475341291521" target="_blank">interested in trading</a> for <strong>Skip Schumaker</strong>, according to Danny Knobler.</p>
<p>He plays second, left field, center field, and right field, so there&#8217;s versatility there, but he&#8217;s a terrible defender at second, a bad one in center, and just solid-average in the corners. Over the last three seasons, since he turned 30, he&#8217;s had an OPS+ of 88.</p>
<p>Not so thrilled, really.</p>
<p>&#8212;&#8211;</p>
<p>Oh, and Colletti <a href="https://twitter.com/BillShaikin/statuses/276105195233087488" target="_blank">shot down</a> those <a href="http://www.chadmoriyama.com/2012/12/winter-meetings-2012-greinke-looks-anibal-in-reserve-sorianolowe-relief-options-ss3b/" target="_blank">rumors from yesterday</a> about them seeking starters at SS/3B. But there&#8217;s no reason to think he&#8217;s being truthful either.</p>
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