Stephen Fife is having shoulder problems, because why wouldn’t he with the way the injuries have been going for the Dodgers.

Stephen Fife, who was scheduled to start Saturday night against the Brewers, was placed on the 15-day disabled list with right shoulder bursitis. Matt Magill was recalled from Triple-A Albuquerque and will make his major league debut in place of Fife.

The upside is that the Dodgers get to test out their top prospects, I guess.

—–

Will Carroll is reporting Zack Greinke will begin a scheduled throwing session next week.

— Will Carroll (@injuryexpert) April 25, 2013

While it certainly seems like a quick recovery, Carroll also notes that it was always expected Greinke would resume throwing following the broken collarbone at this time. Therefore, it doesn’t mean he’ll return to game action any earlier than the original timetable of eight weeks.

Eric Stephen caught up with Don Mattingly and reports that Greinke’s throwing will not be strenuous for the time being.

Don Mattingly said Zack Greinke has been playing catch but nothing strenuous just yet. “He’s not going to start throwing bullpens.”

— Eric Stephen (@truebluela) April 27, 2013

—–

Chad Billingsley‘s elbow finally went boom, and the righty underwent Tommy John surgery, which will sideline him until sometime next season.

Chad Billingsley met with team physician Dr. Neal ElAttrache on Tuesday and the news was not good. The Dodgers’ right-hander will need Tommy John surgery to repair the partially torn ligament in his right elbow. An MRI taken Saturday revealed an injury to the ligament.

Billingsley had increased tightness and pain in his right elbow in a bullpen session on Apr. 19, and he was scratched on Sunday in Baltimore and placed on the disabled list.

The surgery went off as expected with no complications.

The Tommy John surgery performed on Chad Billingsley’s right elbow Wednesday night went as expected, and he could be sidelined for a year.

Should his rehab go well, I would figure no earlier than after the 2014 All-Star Game for Bills’ return.

—–

Hanley Ramirez will head out on a rehab assignment beginning Saturday, as he continues to be ahead of schedule in his return from a torn ligament in his thumb.

Shortstop Hanley Ramirez is likely to begin a Minor League rehab assignment within the next few days, but he’ll still need to wear a splint when he returns to the Dodgers, because the repaired ligament in his right thumb will still be healing.

“Maybe by the end of next week I hope to be [active],” Ramirez said after an improved workout, watched by manager Don Mattingly. “It’s still swollen. It doesn’t look normal yet. I don’t want to come back and go back to the DL. It won’t be 100 percent, but it’ll be at a level I’m comfortable with.

“Right now I think about it a little bit. I still feel it. I have to wear the splint for six weeks. If I come back early, I still have to have it.”

After undergoing surgery on March 22, Ramirez was told his healing time would be six to eight weeks, but he’s been throwing and hitting for more than a week.

HanRam will head to Rancho Cucamonga for the assignment. His goal is to return by the time his “I See You” bobblehead is given out, which just so happens to be this Tuesday.

Rancho coming soon!!!!!

— Hanley Ramirez (@HanleyRamirez) April 25, 2013

—–

Mark Ellis left Friday’s game with a strained right quad suffered as he ran to first to try and beat out a grounder.

Ellis will have an MRI on Saturday and will likely hit the DL if the strain is confirmed.

“He kind of seemed to be optimistic, but we’ll just have to see. It’s tough to see that tonight. Tomorrow probably will be a better indicator.”

Mattingly didn’t want to speculate, but it does sound like an injury that will keep Ellis sidelined for the immediate future.

“If I had to guess, usually guys don’t come out of games like that and it not be something,” Mattingly said. “It’s usually something that’s not going to be a day or two.”

Much like with my fantasy team, the injuries are never-ending and one after another.

—–

Chris Capuano threw a bullpen session Thursday and will take the hill in a simulated game on Sunday. The lefty is on the mend after suffering a left calf strain in the Carlos Quentin Debacle and further aggravating the injury in his only start of the season.

“Cappy hasn’t had to stop at all because of his arm,” said Mattingly.

The next step for Capuano after the simulated game would be a minor league rehab start before he is ready to be activated. The date for Capuano to be activated figures to be May 8, the final game of a three-game series at Dodger Stadium against the Diamondbacks.

With Dodgers pitchers falling left and right, some good news is more than welcome.

—–

Shawn Tolleson had surgery on a herniated disk in his lower back and will be on the shelf for three to five months.

Dodgers reliever Shawn Tolleson was scheduled to undergo surgery for a herniated disk in his lower back Thursday. He will be out three to five months.

Tough break for a really talented guy.

—–

On the minor-league side of things, there were six DL moves made:

Placed on 7-day DL: C Webster Rivas, SS Ozzie Martinez, OF Yasiel Puig
Reinstated from DL: C Pratt Maynard, SS Casio Grider, OF Brian Cavazos-Galvez

Yasiel Puig obviously highlights that list.

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Greg Zakwin is the founder of the site Plaschke Thy Sweater Is Argyle. Follow him on Twitter @ArgyledPlaschke.

Ted Lilly will make his first start of the season on Wednesday, replacing the injured Chris Capuano, who had replaced the injured Zack Greinke.

Ted Lilly will start Wednesday night’s game against the Mets, manager Don Mattingly confirmed Friday. Lilly replaces the injured Chris Capuano, who previously replaced the injured Zack Greinke.

“That’s our plan,” said Mattingly. “Obviously, he’s got to come out of the bullpen today and one more [side session], but that’s the plan.”

Though the results of his rehab starts were not necessarily good, Lilly was happy with the progression of each start.

Lilly said each of his three rehab starts was better than the previous with his delivery and ability to adjust. He said he’s looking forward to competing again in the Major Leagues for the first time since last May.

He’s back to reclaim his homer-giver-upper throne!

In all seriousness, he better be ready.

—–

Chad Billingsley was placed on the 15-day DL with right elbow pain. Stephen Fife was recalled to replace Bills and he started in his place on Sunday.

What was once a ridiculously deep starting staff has now been decimated, with three guys injured and a fourth dealt.

—–

Tim Federowicz was recalled for a second time to replace the injured Capuano.

One day after he left his start in the third inning against the Padres with a left calf strain, Dodgers pitcher Chris Capuano was placed on the 15-day disabled list. To take his place on the roster, the Dodgers recalled catcher Tim Federowicz from Triple-A Albuquerque.

With a trip to the American League, the Dodgers decided to bring up another bat rather than replace an arm with an arm.

—–

Josh Wall was recalled once again, taking the place of an injured Shawn Tolleson.

Wall, who was among the final roster cuts of spring training, had a 2.08 ERA in four games with the Isotopes with one save, five strikeouts and three walks in 4⅓ innings.

The move was announced literally right before first pitch and at the time Wall was en route to Dodger Stadium, on Jackie Robinson Night.

Unfortunately, at the rate he’s going, he’ll be back down sooner than later.

—–

Jerry Hairston Jr., who had been appealing his one-game suspension stemming from the Carlos Quentin debacle, dropped the appeal and served the suspension on Wednesday.

—–

The Dodgers signed pitcher Anthony Ortega to a minor-league deal and assigned him to AAA to replace the recently called-up Stephen Fife.

—–

The Dodgers continue to pluck from the international pool of talent, signing RHP Osiris Ramirez (Puerto Plata), RHP Angel German, and 3B Jimy Perez (Bani).

—–

A slew of minor-league moves also went down:

Signed: RHP Victor Arano, 2B David Compton, OF Antonio Torres
Released: RHP Danny Carela
Loaned To Mexican League: RHP Javier Solano (Monterrey), LHP Thomas Melgarejo (Saltillo), 2B Jesus Alberto Arredondo (Monclova)

Biggest name on that list is probably relief pitcher Javier Solano.

=====

Greg Zakwin is the founder of the site Plaschke Thy Sweater Is Argyle. Follow him on Twitter @ArgyledPlaschke.

Hanley Ramirez has resumed baseball activities, including hitting off of a tee and light toss. He plans to return earlier than the timetable originally given, but the Dodgers aren’t getting ahead of themselves.

Ramirez told reporters Tuesday he would be back ‘way sooner’ than May 17, and that “everybody is going to be shocked” at how quickly he returns.

Manager Don Mattingly was similarly excited but less specific than Ramirez.

“He was in there swinging, and he looks good. Hanley’s moving forward, that’s for sure,” Mattingly said. “I’m going out on a limb and saying it’s not going to be eight weeks.”

So basically he’s declaring himself a miracle, which is fine with me considering the infield situation on the left side.

The sooner he gets back, the better.

—–

Zack Greinke underwent surgery on his broken left collarbone, and the procedure went as expected.

Dodgers right-handed pitcher Zack Greinke had successful surgery to repair a broken left collarbone on Saturday in Los Angeles, the team announced. As previously thought, Greinke is expected to miss eight weeks after the procedure.

The surgery was performed on Saturday by Dr. John Itamura and Dr. Neal ElAttrache at White Memorial Hospital in Los Angeles. The 90-minute procedure fixed the fracture of Greinke’s left clavicle, and involved the placement of a metal plate to stabilize the fracture.

The timetable for Zack’s return is eight weeks, which is about as good as the team could have hoped for.

—–

Ted Lilly agreed to make yet another minor-league rehab start.

It appears that left-handed pitcher Ted Lilly and the Dodgers have agreed to extend their inconvenient arrangement a little while longer. Lilly has agreed to make another minor league start on his rehabilitation assignment, a change from his weekend stance.

“It’s really been above me, what’s going on. They’ve been working it out,” Mattingly said. “We just give our baseball opinion, on what we felt like he needed, and they worked it out.”

Then he made it and impressed Ken Howell.

If and when the Dodgers need a replacement for the injured Chris Capuano, Ted Lilly is ready, assistant pitching coach Ken Howell said Tuesday night.

“He looked tonight like a Major League pitcher,” said Howell. “He managed the game, his pitches were crisper, he competed better. That’s what I was looking for. He pitched better than the numbers indicate.”

Looks more and more likely that he’ll have to be ready, due to a sudden lack of rotation depth.

—–

Speaking of the devil, Chris Capuano, filling in for an injured Greinke, left Tuesday’s game with a left calf strain. He’s headed for an MRI on Friday, according to Don Mattingly.

Oh, this start to the season just keeps getting better and better.

—–

The recently called-up Shawn Tolleson made one appearance before hitting the 15-day DL with a lower back strain.

Tolleson was recalled on Friday when Zack Greinke went on the disabled list, and pitched in the series opener against the Diamondbacks. Tolleson came in with the bases loaded and one out in the eighth inning with the Dodgers trailing 1-0, but he walked both hitters he faced to force in two inherited runs.

The move is retroactive to April 13, so Tolleson can be activated April 28 if he’s healthy.

As far as his recovery goes, Tolleson has been shut down from throwing for the next week, and he actually felt something before stepping onto the field, but he didn’t address the issue until after putting himself at further risk.

He thinks the travel may have affected his back, but for whatever reason he felt tightness before the his appearance on Friday.

“It was kind of tight all day, and tight when I was warming up. I wasn’t worried about it when I was pitching, I was just trying to throw strikes,” Tolleson said. “But when I came out of the game it just really tightened up on me.”

Sounds iffy as to whether or not he’ll be back after his 15 days are up.

—–

In better news, Carl Crawford has been cleared to resume throwing normally.

Dodgers outfielder Carl Crawford continues to build arm strength following offseason Tommy John Surgery, enough for Dodgers trainers to give him the green light to bypass his cutoff man and throw to the bag when the situation calls for it.

“I’m glad to hear that, actually, because I think as much as anything, he’s been throwing the ball pretty good,” manager Don Mattingly said before Tuesday’s game against the Padres. “I just don’t think he’s been feeling like he should be letting it go. So when the trainers tell him it’s OK, I think it makes you feel better as a player. You can turn it loose.”

Guys have been taking advantage of his throwing arm, but I’m not sure how much of that is due to the surgery and how much of that is just normal for him.

Either way, he’s playing well enough overall for it not to matter.

—–

Scott Elbert, on the shelf following left elbow surgery, is progressing in his rehab and responding well to plasma-rich platelet injections.

After two offseason elbow operations, Elbert experienced a setback midway through Spring Training, received a PRP injection and has rebounded steadily since. He has been throwing hard on flat ground this weekend and could be pitching off a mound in a week or two.

“I’m definitely a lot better, either from the PRP or the shoulder exercises, which also help the elbow because everything is incorporated,” said Elbert. “I wasn’t able to throw more than 75 feet in Spring Training, but I’m up to 90 feet now and my mechanics are a lot better.”

Even if he’s behind two other lefties right now, with the way the season is going, the depth would be nice to have.

—–

Steven Ames was placed on the minor-league 7-day DL.

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Greg Zakwin is the founder of the site Plaschke Thy Sweater Is Argyle. Follow him on Twitter @ArgyledPlaschke.

The Zack Greinke/Carlos Quentin/Dodgers/Padres debacle led to a lot of discussion and a couple of suspensions/fines: one for Quentin and one for Jerry Hairston Jr.

While Zack Greinke is expected to miss eight weeks after surgery to repair his broken left collarbone, Carlos Quentin of the Padres will miss eight games.

Jerry Hairston, who ran toward the Padres dugout after the initial melee died down, was suspended for one game.

Both Quentin and Hairston were fined an undisclosed amount, and both are appealing their suspensions. Both are starting in left field for their respective teams Friday night. Neither Greinke nor Matt Kemp, the other two players ejected, will be suspended.

For the best interests of both teams, MLB suggested to Quentin that he drop the appeal, and it was reported that he would. Yesterday, he did exactly that, and he will be suspended during the upcoming series.

—–

Tim Federowicz, as expected, was optioned to AAA to clear room on the 25-man roster for the returning Chad Billingsley.

“It’s tough. It’s one of those things as a young player. I have options left, and that’s just the way it is,” Federowicz said before Tuesday’s game. “You need some protection at the catchers spot if someone were to get hurt. We only had two on the roster, so they figured they had to do something.”

Ramon Hernandez will now serve as A.J. Ellis‘ backup, but give me Timmy every day of the week and twice on Sundays.

—–

Shawn Tolleson was recalled from AAA to replace the injured Greinke.

His stay on the team depends on what the Dodgers decide to do with Ted Lilly…

…and speaking of the devil, Lilly refused an assignment to continue rehabbing in the minors.

The Dodgers on Saturday asked Lilly to continue his Minor League rehab assignment with two more starts and he declined. He can’t be sent out without his permission and he declared himself healthy and ready to pitch in the Major Leagues.

The club disagrees.

“We laid out a plan and, obviously, he just didn’t like the plan,” said manager Don Mattingly, who put Chris Capuano in the starting rotation, and not Lilly, to replace the injured Zack Greinke. “From a baseball standpoint, we felt he wasn’t quite ready for what we want him to do, to start.”

“We laid out a plan and Teddy doesn’t want to be part of the plan. It’s out of my hands. We didn’t feel he was ready to pitch at the Major League level. For me, it’s a baseball decision. It’s nothing personal in any way, shape or form. We’re giving him our baseball thoughts, what we think is best for him and the team.”

In two rehab starts between the A+ and AAA levels, Lilly has a 7.50 ERA in 12 innings. Combine that with a horrible Spring Training and it’s hard to disagree with the team here.

But besides his performance why do they want to keep him in the minors, right? Well, Chris Capuano will make the start Tuesday in place of the injured Greinke.

Capuano has pitched two games in relief, including Thursday night directly following Greinke after he broke his left collarbone in a brawl against the Padres. In 2⅔ innings, Capuano allowed only two hits, a walk, and no runs, with four strikeouts. Capuano was 12-12 with a 3.72 ERA in 33 starts for the Dodgers in 2012.

So basically there’s no room in the rotation for Lilly, and Capuano is the right choice here.

—–

The Dodgers signed first baseman Sean Burroughs to a minor-league deal. Frankly, it was surprising to find out he was even still in baseball.

Just minor-league depth though.

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Greg Zakwin is the founder of the site Plaschke Thy Sweater Is Argyle. Follow him on Twitter @ArgyledPlaschke.

The Dodgers had a bunch of intriguing minor-leaguers posting solid numbers in the season’s first week.

Note: Since the minor-league season started on Thursday, the numbers you see here — especially for the hitters — will not be the norm all year long.

—–

Triple-A Albuquerque Isotopes (4-0)

Player Of The Week

Scott Van Slyke – 1B

4 G, .600/.667/.933/1.600, 1 HR, 9 RBI, 2 2B, 4 R, 3 BB, 4 K

Van Slyke, on the strength of a 4-for-5, five RBI game, had the best week of any Dodger minor-leaguer. Primarily a first baseman now, the slimmed-down Van Slyke could still have a career in the big leagues, especially if he’s improved upon his slider bat-speed.

Pitcher Of The Week

Shawn Tolleson – RHP

2 G, 4.2 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 2 BB, 6 K

With starting pitchers on pitch limits and the Isotopes not having a lot of talent in the rotation, it’s possible for relief pitchers to make this list more often than not. Tolleson, who lost out on a bullpen spot in the majors because of options, is back to Albuquerque for a second stint. Hopefully he doesn’t stay there for too long, because there really isn’t much more he can do in the minors.

—–

Double-A Chattanooga Lookouts (1-3)

Player Of The Week

Yasiel Puig – OF

3 G, .500/.583/.800/1.383, 1 HR, 3 RBI, 2 R, 2 BB, 3 K

The Spring Training sensation had a solid first week in the Southern League. He hit a home run and drew a couple walks, which is something he didn’t do in March. It appears he’s set to take the league by storm.

Pitcher Of The Week

Onelki Garcia – LHP

1 G, 4 IP, 1 H, 1 R, 1 HR, 2 BB, 4 K

There’s a decidedly Cuban feel to the Lookouts with Garcia making his “official” Double-A debut. It wasn’t as good as his appearance in the playoffs last year, but it’s definitely encouraging.

—–

High-A Rancho Cucamonga Quakes (3-1)

Player Of The Week

Noel Cuevas – OF

4 G, .333/.412/.400/.812, 1 2B, 3 RBI, 2 R, 2 SB, 2 BB, 3 K

Cuevas ended up with a game-winning hit one night and, aside from the guys who played just one or two games, had the best week overall. He should be a mainstay in the Quakes’ lineup this season.

Pitcher Of The Week

Ross Stripling – RHP

1 G, 5 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 4 K

Stripling had a nice High-A debut that included four no-hit innings. The second-year pitcher out of Texas A&M could move quickly if he handles the California League well.

—–

Low-A Great Lakes Loons (1-3)

Player Of The Week

Paul Hoenecke – 3B

4 G, .438/.438/.813/1.251, 1 HR, 1 RBI, 3 2B, 3 R, 4 K

One of the more “veteran” hitters on the team, Hoenecke held it down for the Loons this week. Four of his seven hits went for extra bases and he’s filling a big need for the team at third base.

Pitcher Of The Week

Lindsey Caughel – RHP

1 G, 6 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 6 K

Caughel, like Hoenecke for the offense, is a veteran pitcher on the staff, meaning he’s a bit old for the league. But his debut was clearly the best of any Loons’ pitcher. He pitched reasonably well last year in Rookie-ball, so it’ll be interesting to see if he can carry it over to full-season ball.

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Dustin Nosler is the founder of the site Feelin’ Kinda Blue. He also co-hosts the weekly podcast Dugout Blues. Follow him on Twitter @FeelinKindaBlue or like his site on Facebook.

Javy Guerra has been optioned to AAA after a rough spring in which he dealt with injury and had been limited to just a couple of appearances. The Dodgers have a deep pen and, with Guerra’s injuries and struggles, he was going to have to excel during Spring Training to secure a spot on the Opening Day roster.

Tony Gwynn Jr. was also assigned to AAA Albuquerque. Gwynn was one of the few guys with the ability to backup Matt Kemp and previous big-league experience doing so, but the move reinforces just how little Tony can swing the lumber and the fact that the Dodgers clearly have faith that Carl Crawford will be healthy enough to serve as the number two center fielder.

Shawn Tolleson and Justin Sellers were optioned to AAA, while Jesus Flores was reassigned to minor-league camp. Additionally, Chris Withrow was optioned to minor-league camp along with Juan Abreu and Wilkin Castillo.

—–

The team released three players in Dallas McPherson, Ramon Castro, and Nick Evans.

—–

On the flip side of things, the team has signed Dashenko Ricardo of Curacao to a contract after Dashenko participated in the World Baseball Classic.

Along with Ricardo came the signings of Dominican prospects Dennis Santana and Carlos Aquino – both shortstops – and lefty Cesar Romero.

—–

Tim Federowicz has probably locked up the job of backing up A.J. Ellis with the removal of Jesus Flores from major-league camp.

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Greg Zakwin is the founder of the site Plaschke Thy Sweater Is Argyle. Follow him on Twitter @ArgyledPlaschke.

Zack Greinke, who was out with elbow discomfort and forearm stiffness, received an injection after being examined by Dr. Neal ElAttrache.

The team doctor gave Greinke an injection of platelet-rich plasma and anti-inflammatory medication. The pitcher has been prescribed rest for two to three days and then a return to a progressive throwing program.

ElAttrache’s diagnosis confirmed an MRI taken last week that Greinke had no structural ligament or tendon damage in the elbow, which has bothered him since his last start March 1.

Greinke has told the team he’s dealt with similar elbow issues in the past that never kept him from missing a start.

Greinke was set to rest for a couple of days before beginning a progressive throwing program.

For his part, Greinke chose not to speculate on the exact extent of the injury or self-diagnose:

“I didn’t really know exactly what the problem is, and I still don’t. They might, but I don’t. I’m not a doctor, I’m just kind of going what they are saying to me,” Greinke said. “I don’t have any definitive stuff to tell you guys. I don’t know if it’s the same problem as I’ve had in the past, and I don’t know if it’s a little different.”

On Friday, Greinke played catch, the first time he’s thrown since receiving an injection of plasma in his elbow. Afterwards, He reported no pain.

As it stands, the Dodgers are unsure of whether Greinke will be right by Opening Day and are looking into roster possibilities should he not be ready by then.

“Will Zack be able to make opening day? We don’t know that,” said manager Don Mattingly on Thursday.

Honestly, who cares about Opening Day though? It’s just an arbitrary date.

Obviously the primary goal should be getting him healthy, period, just like Carl Crawford.

—–

Carl Crawford is once again taking batting practice against live pitching.

Carl Crawford took the next step in his rehabilitation on Tuesday, as he faced live pitchers at Camelback Ranch. It was the sixth consecutive day Crawford has taken batting practice of some sort, and his quantity has increased from 50 swings each day to start up to over 120 on Tuesday.

He then hit against live pitching in a game and could be DHing soon in Spring Training.

“Carl was good again today. We’ll see how he does tomorrow. We’re talking about him possibly DH-ing soon. We’ll see how he pops out of these two days. We know he was sore today, body wise. Just regular soreness that you’ll have playing, and in a different gear,” Mattingly said. “We’ll see how he is tomorrow, and make some decisions.”

There is no rush to bring him back, so however long the process needs to take is how long the Dodgers and Carl should be willing to see it through.

—–

Chad Billingsley made a minor-league start on Wednesday even though he’s dealing with some mild groin tightness.

Billingsley had the right leg wrapped for his Sunday bullpen session and manager Don Mattingly said it is nothing major. Billingsley has a history of groin tightness in previous Spring Trainings.

The Dodgers had the day off but Bills carried on with his preparation as he looks towards the beginning of the season.

He ended up clearing the latest test with flying colors, just like all the others.

“Everything felt great with the groin, I had no issues with that. My arm felt great today, everything was good,” Billingsley said. “I had good command of all my pitches.”

It’s hard to not start to get encouraged by this.

—–

Javy Guerra‘s groin issue is more serious than Bills’.

The groin issue that hampered Javy Guerra in his one inning of a Minor League game Sunday, however, will “slow him down a bit, that’s for sure,” Mattingly said. Guerra, in his return from a week off because of World Baseball Classic issues, has downplayed the injury, which he didn’t reveal until after his Sunday outing.

“He’s telling me he feels good,” said Mattingly. “We’re going to be cautious. I don’t think it will be for an extended time, but we’ll be cautious for a day.”

In a crowded bullpen, especially if the team keeps eight starters, it’s not out of the question that he could start on the DL or in AAA.

—–

Shawn Tolleson suffered an injury for the second time this spring after he took a liner off his elbow.

Luckily, it should be fine and he won’t even go in for x-rays.

Tolleson previously dealt with a knee injury a week or so ago.

—–

Ted Lilly missed a bullpen session due to illness, the second instance this spring in which sickness has felled him.

It’s not a big deal, but for a guy who’s coming back from shoulder surgery and needs reps, the sickness throws him off schedule and puts him behind.

—–

Matt Palmer went under the knife for arthroscopic surgery on his left knee and is out for roughly six to eight weeks.

The surgery to clean up a medial meniscus was performed by Dr. Brian Shafer. Palmer’s knee locked up while walking after playing catch on Saturday.

Palmer had a 3.60 ERA in three spring appearances, having allowed nine runs (seven unearned) in five innings, his outings marred by several errant pickoff throws. He allowed nine hits.

The non-roster invitee had no shot of making the team, but it’s unfortunate that he suffered a non-contact injury and couldn’t at least compete and make a larger impression, one way or the other, on the club.

—–

Our very own Dustin Nosler is on the scene at Camelback Ranch and reports that Justin Sellers left practice with what appeared to be a lower-leg injury.

Ken Gurnick updates us on Sellers and confirms Nosler’s report, as he says Sellers suffered a sprained ankle.

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Greg Zakwin is the founder of the site Plaschke Thy Sweater Is Argyle. Follow him on Twitter @ArgyledPlaschke.

After previously reporting forearm tightness to the Dodgers, it’s been relayed that Zack Greinke is now dealing with elbow discomfort, which will force him to miss his latest Spring Training outing.

“Doctors have ruled out serious injuries such as ligament damage,” wrote Gurnick, who called the move precautionary. “Greinke has told the club he’s dealt with similar elbow issues in the past that never kept him from missing a start.”

Greinke skipped a bullpen session on Mar. 3 with elbow discomfort, something manager Don Mattingly referred to later in the week as “the little stuff with the elbow the other day.”

Missing a start is nothing, and the news about no serious damage is fantastic, but it’s a bit concerning that Greinke has dealt with two arm issues already, and the season hasn’t even begun yet.

Worse yet is news that he’s now on his way to have his arm checked out by Dr. Neal ElAttrache in Los Angeles, who is the Dodger equivalent of Dr. James Andrews.

#Dodgers sending Greinke to LA today so Dr Neal ElAttrache can examine sore elbow.

— Bill Shaikin (@BillShaikin) March 11, 2013

The team continues to downplay the severity of the situation, but we have to wonder if they aren’t revealing the extent of their concern.

—–

Carl Crawford is back working out after being shut down for seven days due to elbow irritation.

The Dodgers will take it slow with Crawford now, limiting him to one activity at a time. He will begin with hitting off a tee or via light toss in the batting cage on Thursday.

“He’s doing good, but he’ll be monitored, more on a rehab program,” manager Don Mattingly said. “If we don’t have trouble in one area, then we can keep moving to the next area. If something flares up, we want to know what’s causing it.”

That next area will be throwing for Crawford, which will likely take the longest of his skills to return to normal. But there is still no timetable for when Crawford will be able to play in a spring game, even as designated hitter.

Crawford still believes he’ll not only be available for Opening Day, but will be starting.

The calendar says it’s now unlikely for Carl Crawford to be ready for Opening Day, but he disagrees.

“I haven’t accepted that at all,” Crawford said on Thursday after ending a week-long shutdown by hitting off a tee. “I don’t know who is putting that stuff out there. Even with a slower approach, there’s still a chance I’ll be ready.”

Still don’t understand why there’s this grand incentive for him to rush back in his mind. Not like it’s the start of the playoffs or something.

—–

The Dodgers are pleased with Chad Billingsley‘s progress.

“If you didn’t know anything, does he look any different to you than he looked any other time?” manager Don Mattingly said he asked pitching coach Rick Honeycutt. “And the answer is no. It’s really good news for us, the way he’s bouncing back and the way his arm is.”

“I’m feeling good, throwing hard, throwing everything,” Billingsley said. “They monitor everything, especially with me. In my whole rehab process that I went through last year, I had velocities I had to hit. The ball feels good coming out of my hand, that’s all that matters.”

Also of note is that Bills is dealing with a sore groin muscle.

Meanwhile, Billingsley is dealing with a sore right groin muscle, an injury he’s had in previous springs.

Not a concern for now, but injuries to the lower half can put additional stress on the arm.

—–

Javy Guerra is dealing with a minor groin strain but has been pitching through it.

Guerra downplayed the injury, calling it “something minor” that cropped up Sunday and led to a mechanical flaw. He said a “simple adjustment” made while throwing in the bullpen after his outing brought pitches that sailed high during the game back into the strike zone.

Don’t let him pitch through it, team with a reputation for playing guys who are injured which then subsequently exacerbates the injury and ends up making it worse.

The fact that he’s changing his pitching mechanics to compensate for it says it all, really.

—–

Shawn Tolleson, who injured his knee recently, has been cleared to return to action.

“I just felt something move in my knee and felt a pain, so it kind of spooked me. I didn’t want to test it or throw another pitch or anything. I came out of the game and they checked it out,” Tolleson said. “Everything checked out good and clean. Today there is no swelling, no soreness, no nothing.”

Tolleson participated in workouts on Wednesday, but only did light tossing, and no pitchers fielding practice.

Tolleson wasn’t able to duplicate the pain he had felt…

Shawn Tolleson, who left Tuesday’s game after experiencing a twinge in his left knee, tested it in a shortened bullpen session and said he couldn’t duplicate the pain. He’s been cleared to pitch an inning Friday.

…so everything seems good to go.

—–

Scott Elbert has begun throwing following two off-season elbow surgeries.

—–

Chris Withrow, out with lower back pain all of Spring Training, has begun a throwing program.

—–

Non-roster invitee Matt Palmer suffered ligament damage in his knee and will miss 6-8 weeks after surgery.

“We hadn’t heard anything about anything, but Sue (Falsone, team trainer) said this morning said he mentioned there was some swelling. It sounded like there were signs that he didn’t look at as signs at the time,” Mattingly said. “The fact that this thing just went while walking, it was going to go anyway, in my mind.”

Palmer was an extreme long-shot to make the team anyway, but it sucks to see him go out like that.

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Greg Zakwin is the founder of the site Plaschke Thy Sweater Is Argyle. Follow him on Twitter @ArgyledPlaschke.

Baseball fans love to talk about clutch plays and clutch players, and Dodgers fans are no exception, but like with a pitcher’s best and worst pitches, there tends to be a lack of evidence presented. As such, I decided to find some basis for clutch plays and clutch players, courtesy of the WPA and Clutch statistics.

WPA

Most sabermetric statistics are context neutral — they do not consider the situation of a particular event or how some plays are more crucial to a win than others. While wOBA rates all home runs as equal, we know intuitively that a home run in the third inning of a blowout is less important to that win than a home run in the bottom of the ninth inning of a close game. Win Probability Added (WPA) captures this difference by measuring how individual players affect their team’s win expectancy on a per-play basis.

Clutch

In the words of David Appelman, this calculation measures, “…how much better or worse a player does in high leverage situations than he would have done in a context neutral environment.” It also compares a player against himself, so a player who hits .300 in high leverage situations when he’s an overall .300 hitter is not considered clutch.

So that’s the foundation for this post, and since that’s now been established, let’s get on with it, shall we?

As always, visuals have been provided because, let’s be honest, everything is better with visuals.

—–

I feel like it’s necessary to point out that none of this is predictive of the future or telling of the past. It’s a post about stuff that happened in 2012. That’s all.

In other words, please don’t link back to this while saying, “LOOK! THIS DUDE IS SO CLUTCH, BRO!” No.

—–

Top Five Clutchiest McClutchington Outs Of 2012

1. Kenley Jansen – 46.8%

The Dodgers were clinging onto an 8-7 lead with one down in the bottom of the ninth and runners on first and third. At this point, you’d almost be happy with a tied game.

One Jason Kubel swing later and it was a win instead.

2. Javy Guerra – 31.6%

Tied at 4-4 in the top of the ninth inning, the Padres got runners on first and second with nobody out. Not looking good for the Dodgers.

But then the impossible happened and … well … you can see it for yourself.

3. Ronald Belisario – 27.5%

Tied at two in the bottom of the eighth inning and facing a bases loaded jam with one out, Ronald Belisario gets out of it thanks to what basically amounts to luck.

Matt Holliday smashed a liner, but it was right at Mark Ellis, who doubled up the runner at second.

4. Kenley Jansen – 24.7%

With runners on second and third in the top of the ninth and one down, the Dodgers are clinging to a 6-5 lead when Kenley Jansen induces a harmless infield pop-up.

5. Brandon League – 20.0%

Tied at three with one down in the bottom of the tenth and a runner on third, Brandon League keeps him there by inducing a strikeout.

—–

It shouldn’t be a surprise to anybody that the most clutch plays of the season all went to relievers.

That said, I am shocked that Javy Guerra‘s play wasn’t tops on this list, since it’s almost never that you induce three outs on one pitch.

—–

Top Five Clutchiest Dodgers Of 2012 – Ball Thrower Division

1. Brandon League – 0.70
2. Josh Lindblom – 0.47
3. Nate Eovaldi – 0.34
4. Shawn Tolleson – 0.34
5. Stephen Fife – 0.32

Zack Greinke missed a bullpen session on Sunday due to forearm tightness.

Greinke had “a little forearm tightness and thought it best to give it a day to let it rest,” pitching coach Rick Honeycutt said. “It’s nothing to be alarmed about. He’s had it before and he’s still expected to make his next start [Wednesday].”

Fortunately, it’s not anything to be concerned with at this point, especially considering Greinke was still participating in baseball activities prior to the game.

Greinke didn’t miss the pre-game workout, shagging in the outfield but making very few overhand throws.

Team is just being extra cautious with their new signing.

—–

The last time we mentioned Carl Crawford he was dealing with elbow soreness and was held out of drills as a precaution.

The Dodgers soon thereafter updated us with further precautionary measures, namely seven days off from throwing and hitting due to nerve irritation in his surgically-repaired left elbow.

To be honest, I wasn’t expecting a whole lot from Crawford this year, and my overall expectations for him in Los Angeles are very much tempered, but the fact that his elbow seems to still be balky is particularly concerning, especially now that even the Dodgers are saying Opening Day is iffy.

—–

Andre Ethier missed some Camelback Ranch action due to a callus on his right hand.

Ethier suffered from the same ailment last August, and Don Mattingly wants to be pro-active this time around.

“It’s kind of a callus that turned into nastiness last year by not paying attention. I don’t want to do that again,” said manager Don Mattingly. “It’s starting to get big. They’re trying to let it dry out, and not let it turn into what it turned into last year.”

Mattingly said if this were a regular season game Ethier would play, but given the luxury of spring training and a full month before opening day, the team is playing it cautiously.

I like that the Dodgers and Mattingly are trying to get ahead of this so that it doesn’t become a more serious concern, but why would he play Dre in a regular-season game and risk further injury when the implication is that the callus could become quite bad and detrimental to him without rest?

That’s how they’ve gotten into messes before, no?

—–

Shawn Tolleson hurt his left knee yesterday, and the injury is being reported as “left knee soreness”.

“Obviously we don’t know anything for sure, but it sounded like Sue was ruling out the big stuff,” said manager Don Mattingly after the game. “He still felt something that scared him, I know that. But it would be premature for me to speculate on what it might be.”

The Dodgers staff will run more tests and hopefully it’s nothing serious as Tolleson has a great arm and could be a part of the pen this year with health and a bit more seasoning.

—–

Matt Kemp made his Spring Training game debut following his off-season shoulder surgery.

“I swung and fouled a changeup. Last year, that would have made my left shoulder hurt,” he said. “I didn’t hurt today. That’s a really good sign that my shoulder is well and responding to the rehab.”

It’s good to see Kemp back in action after a serious injury, as the team’s 2013 fate will hinge largely on how quickly Kemp can regain his MVP form.

—–

Nothing major here, but Ted Lilly has missed time due to sickness.

Lilly, 37, one of four starters likely battling for the final spot in the Dodger rotation, was to follow Clayton Kershaw to the mound Tuesday but he has been out of camp a couple of days with illness.

Manager Don Mattingly said Lilly’s wife, Natasha, and 2-year-old son Theodore Roosevelt (really) were treated last week for flu-like symptoms, after which Lilly became sick.

Sure, sure, blame the wife and kid.

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Greg Zakwin is the founder of the site Plaschke Thy Sweater Is Argyle. Follow him on Twitter @ArgyledPlaschke.

Rick Honeycutt provided a bunch of updates on the health of Clayton Kershaw, Javy Guerra, Chad Billingsley, Shawn Tolleson, Josh Wall, and Kenley Jansen.

“Clayton was great, outstanding,” said Honeycutt. “But he was outstanding his last three starts, so that wasn’t a surprise. Shawn Tolleson had a little back tightness, but he threw a ‘pen. So did Josh Wall and Javy Guerra, who isn’t as far behind as I thought he’d be. Belisario was there, he threw twice, looked real good.”

Guerra seems healthy after off-season shoulder surgery, which is a positive for the pen, but there’s not much else that seems serious … except that Belisario is already in camp, which seems as much a miracle as Billingsley’s elbow holding up all year.

Speaking of which…

Billingsley was not at the minicamp, remaining at home in Pennsylvania, but he hasn’t had a setback after responding well to platelet-rich plasma injections. There is no way to know if his elbow will hold up until it is tested in Spring Training.

“He has to be smart and be open if he feels something so he doesn’t push it past the point,” said Honeycutt. “There’s a fine line between being really hurt or having something you can deal with. Chad tends to pitch through whatever is going on, and he’s not always open about what’s going on. He needs to be honest with himself.”

An athlete being honest about being hurt? Yeah, let’s rely on that because it has such a rich history of working.

Honeycutt didn’t see Kenley Jansen throw, but the reliever arrived the day Honeycutt left and has been throwing bullpens with no ill effects from the surgery he had to fix an irregular heartbeat.

Probably one of the most worrying health concerns because of the unknown/random nature of it.

—–

Hanley Ramirez injured his knee sliding into second base in the finale of the Caribbean Series, but the injury isn’t considered serious or long-term.

@chadmoriyama Awkward slide into second base to break up double play. Couldn’t tell which leg he was favoring afterward.

— Chris Jackson (@TopesWriter) February 8, 2013

Hanley stayed in the game and it didn’t even warrant any real followup other than people on Twitter mentioning that he’s fine, so it doesn’t seem to be anything to worry about going forward.

In a weird way though, him having a minor injury that put him out of the World Baseball Classic might have been a blessing in disguise because then he could play shortstop in Spring Training.

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Greg Zakwin is the founder of the site Plaschke Thy Sweater Is Argyle. Follow him on Twitter @ArgyledPlaschke.

The 2013 projection for the Dodgers from Dan Szymborski‘s ZiPS system was released last week, and given that it’s probably my favorite forecasting tool, it’s worth a look to see how the team fared.

Forecasting is not a complete science, obviously, and I’ll address some of the potential pitfalls as we go along, but it’s better to use objective tools like these than the hopes/dreams of fans or the bitterness/wishes of haters.

To start us off, how does the team fare, generally speaking? A solid playoff contender, for sure, but a super team? Doesn’t seem likely.

—–

The Field Players

Despite all the hype over the recent acquisitions, the key cogs in this machine are still Clayton Kershaw and Matt Kemp. It’s a promising sign then, that Kemp projects at a 144 OPS+ and the system has confidence in him continuing to put up offensive numbers in the ~.900 OPS range. His defense in center still lags below average, but his bat more than makes up for it. His playing time projection has dropped due to his injury woes last season, and quite frankly, it’s hard to fault it for that. Regardless, he still figures to be the most valuable field player on the team.

Adrian Gonzalez is slated to be another bright spot, as ZiPS pegs him to bounceback a bit, though not as much as some want, clocking in at an ~.830 OPS/128 OPS+. That would still be his lowest OPS+ since 2008 (besides 2012, of course), but it’s a marked improvement considering his age and negatively trending skills. A-Gon compensates for that lagging bat a bit by putting up plus defense almost worth a win by itself. Hanley Ramirez factors in as yet another bounceback candidate, projecting at a 115 OPS+, which is an upgrade over last year’s 106 and is closer to his pre-2011 production. Defensively, even his horribad -8 run defensive rating is optimistic to me, as he was truly terrible with the glove last year. Given that I already wanted to barf seeing him trying to turn a double play in 2012, I wouldn’t be surprised at all to see him put up horrid defensive numbers after basically not playing the position all of spring.

Unfortunately, that’s where a lot of the offensive optimism ends. Luis Cruz checks in at 84 OPS+ (106 last year), which will anger many fans, but is completely reasonable given the track record. He remains valuable through plus defense, though given the sample size, there’s reason to be skeptical there as well. A.J. Ellis at 96 OPS+ (118) is another depressing but completely logical projection, as evidenced by everybody’s surprise in 2012 at his potent bat. Andre Ethier at 112 OPS+ (123) is hard to figure for me, because he has been consistently putting up ~120 OPS+ seasons even if it has come down from the ~130 OPS+ range two years ago. I suppose the projection system thinks he’ll get old in a hurry … or maybe it just thinks he’ll face an inordinately high amount of lefties. Mark Ellis at 81 OPS+ (93) shouldn’t be much of a surprise considering he’s 36 and put up an 80 OPS+ at Coors Field in 2011.

The last guy of the starters is Carl Crawford, who is the enigma of the 2013 season. He checks in at 104, which is notable because it’s basically his career OPS+ and it’s about what he did in limited time in 2012 over in Boston. That’s of particular note for me, because what he did in Boston in 2012 can be attributed to a mechanical fix that I pointed out in an article for Baseball Prospectus. Understandably, his playing time checks in low, but if he can produce like he did in 2012 but over a whole season, the Dodgers will be much better for it.

Overall, after fixing the playing time of A.J., adjusting Ethier’s offense up a bit, and adjusting Hanley’s defense down a bit, the starting lineup totaled about 22 WAR.

—–

The Bench & The Prospects

Assuming a bench of Tim Federowicz, Scott Van Slyke or Alex Castellanos, Jerry Hairston Jr., Nick Punto, and Skip Schumaker, we’re looking at around 3 WAR here after playing time is adjusted back to realistic bench levels. I’m guessing Alfredo Amezaga or Tony Gwynn Jr. work their way in somehow, but a five-man bench seems likely initially if the Dodgers can’t deal multiple pitchers before the season starts. Neither player would affect the WAR projection much though.

Honestly? I have to hope the Dodgers do something to improve the bench, because the current configuration looks rather mediocre, and the other options are keeping Juan Uribe and/or Elian Herrera. Yuck.

The good news is that Joc Pederson, T-Fed, SVS, and Castle are projected to be solid at the MLB level, though it sees Dee Gordon basically languishing behind.

—–

The Rotation

Clayton Kershaw is simply a beast, and he figures to check in with a 75 FIP-. This might seem high considering his 2011 and 2012 ERA- figures of 63 and 67, respectively, but when you consider that Felix Hernandez clocks in at 78 FIP- for 2013, you get the picture.

What might surprise is how close new acquisition Zack Greinke comes in behind him, as he figures to put up an FIP- of 81. Granted, he has always projected favorably, as his career FIP- is 80, while his career ERA- is 88, but even adjusting slightly for that, there’s a definite case there for the best 1-2 punch in the majors.

Unfortunately, this is where it gets murky, as Chad Billingsley has the stuff to be the #3, but if I were a betting man, I would bet his elbow implodes before July. He projects at 92 FIP-, which would put him around last year’s performance, which was his arguably his best season since 2008. However, given the nature of his injury and its history in the league, you can basically never rely on him to stay healthy again until he has Tommy John surgery.

Next in the pecking order are Josh Beckett, who comes in below-average at 103, and foreign import Hyun Jin Ryu, who comes in well below-average at 116. As mentioned before, the scouting reports for Beckett match this projection, as he’s no longer a front-line starter due to his decrease in velocity. However, if he can manage to learn to pitch a bit more, he still has the curve to perhaps slot in as a #3 more than a #4. Ryu is a case where I would take any projection with a mound of salt, because there’s hardly anything to base objective projections on. Personally, I don’t think Ryu has the stuff to be a #2, nor do I think he’ll be a #3 on a team with a $250 million payroll, but he should slot in comfortably in the back-end of the rotation for years. I would project something slightly below-average for 2013 and then hope for better.

The rotation is a strong point because it has both arguably the best 1-2 punch in the majors and depth, with Chris Capuano (108 FIP-) and Aaron Harang (114 FIP) presumably traded for upgrades (or maybe kept somehow?), and it checks in at about 17 WAR.

—–

The Bullpen & The Prospects

As of right now, I’m assuming a bullpen of Brandon League, Kenley Jansen, Ronald Belisario, Javy Guerra, Matt Guerrier, J.P. Howell, and Ted Lilly.

Jansen is the best of the bunch (63 FIP-) and League projects a distant second (92 FIP-), but Belisario has the most upside in these projections (101 FIP-). After that, Guerra, Guerrier, and Howell are all around replacement level. Lilly projects as a league-average pitcher, assuming he’s healthy, which would be a boon to a team that has a ticking time bomb in the rotation.

As far as prospects go, ZiPS thinks Chris Reed could be a replacement-level fill-in right now, but Zach Lee, Matt Magill, and Garrett Gould need more seasoning. And for all of you who have Stephen Fife wet dreams (yes, you’re out there), he projects at a 4.91 FIP, so keep it in your pants.

Speaking of replacement level, that especially applies to the Dodgers bullpen because of Shawn Tolleson, Scott Elbert, Steven Ames, and Paco Rodriguez, so the 4 WAR projection for this pen figures to be solid.

—–

Team Projection

A replacement-level team figures to win 43 games, and the team with the lowest amount of wins to get into the playoffs last year was the Cardinals at 88 wins, so 42 WAR puts you in the contender range and 45 WAR makes you viable, while 50 WAR will generally make a team a safe bet to be in the postseason. The Dodgers total 46 WAR, which puts them well within the playoff hunt: good but not great.

The Dodgers basically project neck-and-neck with the rival Giants, while the D-Backs lag behind a bit by maybe a half dozen wins or so, but they’re well within striking distance as well.

So make no mistake, the Dodgers recent spending habits did not make them an elite team, as the money simply duct-taped over both a flawed team and farm system depleted by Frank McCourt‘s ownership and Ned Colletti‘s questionable decisions. But that’s not to denigrate the job the new owners have done, as they turned the franchise into a legitimate playoff contender seemingly overnight, which is still saying a lot about what money can do.

Granted, “we gave you a team that has the chance to make the playoffs” is not what fans want to hear, but it’s an acceptable scenario as they lay the foundation to rebuild the franchise the correct way in their own minds. The 2013 projections might not reflect world-beaters like most seem to expect, but it’s a projection based on historical trends rather than hopes and dreams.

The 2013 Dodgers are indeed a team with a lot of upside, and if everything breaks correctly, they could very well end up being one of the best teams in the league, but they also carry a ton of inherent age and injury risk, which is why the projections come in understandably conservative. Either way, if nothing else, this team figures to be never boring.

As fans of the Dodgers, we’re always analyzing which pitchers have the best and worst pitches, but we normally base that on nothing but our own feelings at the moment, so I decided to take a more objective look at things.

For a pitch to qualify for these rankings, I used a 200-pitch minimum for starters and a 50-pitch minimum for relievers. The metric used to measure pitch effectiveness is True Average (TAv), which is basically like wOBA. League average performance is set at .260, and the metric doesn’t include baserunning.

Additionally, to prevent the post from being solely numbers-based, and one that would have been mind-numbingly boring, I decided to provide visual evidence as well.

—–

Worst Overall Pitches

Shawn Tolleson – Sinker – .395 TAv

Mike MacDougal – Sinker – .342 TAv

Matt Guerrier – Fastball – .320 TAv

Relief pitchers have smaller sample sizes, so they are prone to fluctuations, but they have the advantage of appearing in short bursts and limiting their arsenal to only their best pitches.

So … uh … this is TERRIBLE.

.395 is like 40 points higher than Mike Trout in 2012 for fucks sake.

H-h-how?

—–

Worst Individual Pitches

Fastball

Matt Guerrier – .320 TAv

*Visual Is Above*

Shawn Tolleson – .273
Javy Guerra – .256
Scott Elbert – .237
Ronald Belisario – .082

Ugh.

Sinker

Shawn Tolleson – .395 TAv

*Visual Is Above*

Mike MacDougal – .342
Brandon League – .280
Todd Coffey – .263
Randy Choate – .262
Jamey Wright – .258
Ronald Belisario – .225

No … just no.

Cutter

Jamey Wright – .258 TAv

Scott Elbert – .242
Javy Guerra – .208
Kenley Jansen – .187
Matt Guerrier – .139

Curve

Javy Guerra – .271 TAv

Jamey Wright – .171

Finishing last out of two isn’t bad, but giving up a .271 on a curve as a reliever is.

Slider

Kenley Jansen – .236 TAv

Jamey Wright – .215
Todd Coffey – .214
Shawn Tolleson – .206
Brandon League – .147
Ronald Belisario – .121
Randy Choate – .058

I actually think he could benefit from throwing this more often because it’s a quality pitch. Not hanging it is a different story, but how is he supposed to learn command of it if he never uses it?

Change

None Qualified

Splitter

Brandon League – .096 TAv

He’s the only reliever that qualified for this pitch, so I guess he’s technically the best and the worst, but considering his split was the second-most effective pitch by a reliever for the team in 2012, I’m pretty sure he gets a pass.

As fans of the Dodgers, we’re always analyzing which pitchers have the best and worst pitches, but we normally base that on nothing but our own feelings at the moment, so I decided to take a more objective look at things.

For a pitch to qualify for these rankings, I used a 200-pitch minimum for starters and a 50-pitch minimum for relievers. The metric used to measure pitch effectiveness is True Average (TAv), which is basically like wOBA. League average performance is set at .260, and the metric doesn’t include baserunning.

Additionally, to prevent the post from being solely numbers-based, and one that would have been mind-numbingly boring, I decided to provide visual evidence as well.

—–

Best Overall Pitches

Randy Choate – Slider – .058 TAv

Brandon League – Splitter – .096 TAv

Ronald Belisario – Slider – .121 TAv

The first two pitches should come as no surprise given that they are basically what both pitchers make their money off of. However, Ronald Belisario’s slider? Really? Yeah, but I’m guessing that’s almost entirely based on how surprised hitters are to see it when they’re expecting nothing but 95-97 mph sinking fastballs.

—–

Best Individual Pitches

Fastball

Scott Elbert – .237 TAv

Javy Guerra – .256
Shawn Tolleson – .273
Matt Guerrier – .320

Ronald Belisario’s .082 was disqualified because I’m about 99% sure these pitches were simply identified incorrectly. In any case, I’m surprised by how the Dodgers have zero fireballing fastball relievers.

Sinker

Ronald Belisario – .225 TAv

Jamey Wright – .258
Randy Choate – .262
Todd Coffey – .263
Brandon League – .280
Mike MacDougal – .342
Shawn Tolleson – .395

To have everybody know the pitch is coming and to still beat hitters with it is amazing.

Cutter

Kenley Jansen – .187 TAv

Javy Guerra – .208
Scott Elbert – .242
Jamey Wright – .258

Matt Guerrier actually had a .139, but he barely met the minimum and Kenley Jansen’s cutter is his main pitch and was still below .200, which is silly. Also, I’m biased and wanted to show that GIF. Deal with it.

Curve

Jamey Wright – .171 TAv

Javy Guerra – .271

Slider

Randy Choate – .058 TAv

*Visual Is Above*

Ronald Belisario – .121
Brandon League – .147
Shawn Tolleson – .206
Todd Coffey – .214
Jamey Wright – .215
Kenley Jansen – .236

Unfair to lefties, really.

Change

None Qualified

Splitter

Brandon League – .096 TAv

*Visual Is Above*

When he has got his command working, it’s a filthy, filthy pitch.

Kenley Jansen

Kenley Jansen entered 2012 as the set-up man with elite stuff, freed up to face the opponents’ best hitters should they be due up before the ninth inning. It was the perfect scenario, considering the closer role is a vastly overrated entity. Though Jansen was slotted correctly, he quickly found himself as the closer following some early struggles in that role by Javy Guerra.

Jansen closed 2012 with his third-straight dominant season, posting a 2.40 FIP and 1.81 SIERA while whiffing a magnificent 13.71/9 IP. He appeared in a career-high 65 games and 65 innings, and though he allowed a few more long-balls (six homers after three in 2011 and none in 2010), he more importantly cut down impressively on his free passes for a third consecutive campaign (5.00/4.36/3.05 per nine innings). Also of note is his continued ability to induce infield popups, which has always been excellent (16% in 2010 & 10.9% in 2011), as he reached a new career best in 2012 (19.4 IFFB%).

To put it another way, as infield popups are essentially as effective as strikeouts, Jansen “whiffed” roughly 60% of the hitters he faced in 2012. That is insane, obviously.

Though all has been well from a between-the-lines perspective, Jansen has seen his short career put in jeopardy multiple times due to a heart ailment that has afflicted him for parts of the 2011 regular season, Spring Training of 2012, and most recently the 2012 regular season. While Jansen has thankfully been able to return from all three bouts, the irregular heartbeat has been recurring, which is troublesome for his health and career prospects.

Jansen and the Dodgers have taken action though, as Kenley recently underwent heart surgery to correct the problem. All seems well thus far, as no complications from the surgery have been revealed, and all reports indicate he’ll be ready to go for 2013. He’ll recuperate for at least three months prior to resuming baseball activities, and with his electric stuff, fantastic ability to get hitters to swing-and-miss, and three straight seasons of improving WAR (1.1/1.3/1.9), the sky is the limit for the former backstop as he continues to refine his new craft.

Brandon League

Acquired for Leon Landry and Logan Bawcom, Brandon League arrived having been stripped of his closer duties in Seattle. His 2012 with the Mariners was a season typical of your average middle reliever, as League was fanning only 5.44 per nine while walking far too many (3.83/9 IP), and had a 3.45 FIP and 4.43 SIERA. I was against the trade when it happened and League did nothing to assuage my mind in his first few outings, as he was charged with six earned runs through his first seven games with Los Angeles.

League rebounded to end 2012 strongly though, allowing one earned run from August 21 on. His strikeout rate ticked up in LA to 8.89/9 IP, the highest it had been since 2009, though he walked even more at 4.61/9
IP. His new-found success was attributed to mechanical flaws that were corrected by Rick Honeycutt and his staff.

Whether that’s true and whether his success carries over into the future or not, the 29-year-old heads into free agency banking that teams will be looking at his recent performance over his career track record that consists of 6.71 K/9 IP, 3.10 BB/9 IP, a 3.81 FIP, and a WAR that’s eclipsed 1.0 twice.

Ronald Belisario

After a time spent pretending to be Tony Montana, Ronald Belisario returned to the States and MLB in 2012. Following a 25-game suspension for violating baseball’s drug policy, Belisario made his season debut in early May and would go on to appear in a bullpen-high 68 games and 71 innings.

Belisario posted a 3.09 FIP and 2.80 SIERA, and after starting the year out-pitching his peripherals and shiny ERA, had a very good season after his year off. He fanned just shy of a batter per inning while walking 3.68 per nine and inducing a mess of ground balls (64.5 GB%), which resulted in just three homers allowed in ’12.

Belisario, after all of his troubles, is line for a nice raise from the $480,000 he made on a one-year deal in 2012. He qualified for Super Two status and is arbitration eligible, and he will be an integral part of the pen in 2013.

Javy Guerra

Javy Guerra entered 2012 as the Dodgers closer, though not the most talented reliever on the team, which is perfectly fine and is actually my preferred method of bullpen management. Following a rocky start and a liner to the head, Guerra was removed in favor of Jansen in early May.

After allowing eight earned runs in his first 14 games, which included three blown saves and a pair of losses, Guerra settled down before succumbing to a knee injury that ended his season in early September.

Though Guerra’s season is largely viewed as a failure by many, his 2012 was, in actuality, little different from his 2011 season. His strikeout rate increased (7.33/7.40), his HR/9 IP rate improved (0.39/0.20), and his FIP (3.30/3.34) and WAR remained stable (0.9/0.8).

Guerra’s “struggles” were two-fold. First, the self-inflicted portion: Guerra walked too many guys in 2012, as his BB/9 IP jumped from a high 3.47 to a terrible 4.60 per nine. That must be corrected for Javy to see more success. Second, his BABIP increased to .321 from .261. In other words, after getting lucky in 2011, 2012 saw that luck shift entirely the other way. There is almost certainly a happy medium, and in that place, Guerra is a solid contributor to the pen as a middle reliever.

Scott Elbert

After an excellent 2011 that ended with a new established role in the pen, Scott Elbert finished 2012 on the DL with an elbow injury that felled him from late August on. I wouldn’t be shocked if the elbow bothered him all year, as his numbers fell across the board.

Elbert struck out less per nine (9.18/7.99), gave up more homers (0.27/0.83), and saw a significant drop in FIP (2.73/3.80) and SIERA (3.23/3.76). The lefty also uncharacteristically struggled against his fellow southpaws in comparison with his 2011 success (.271/.342/.342/.684 after a .191/.267/.227/. 494 slash line the year before).

With Randy Choate a possibility to return if he and the club share a mutual interest, and young Paco Rodriguez emerging as another option, Elbert’s health and success in Spring Training will go a long way in determining his future with the club after years and years of injuries finally appeared to be behind him.

Shawn Tolleson

Shawn Tolleson, the club’s top relief prospect heading into 2012, got the call in early June before getting the Blake DeWitt treatment and shuffling between The Show and the minors. Though he moved around, he ended up appearing in 40 games and just under 40 innings.

Known for his swing-and-miss ability and domination of the minors, Tolleson whiffed 9.32/9 IP while posting a 4.08 FIP and 3.78 SIERA. He did struggle with his control at times, walking 4.78 per nine, and he allowed almost a homer per nine.

Five outings — in which he allowed between two and four runs in each — skewed the 24-year-old righty’s numbers a bit, though not as much as his massive struggles against the 68 lefties he faced, who hit a combined .316/.426/.471/.897 against the Texan. On the other side of the coin, Shawn was death to righties, holding them to a .152/.244/.207/.453 line.

Those lefty struggles not withstanding, the future is exceptionally bright for Clayton Kershaw‘s former teammate. Tolleson will have a prominent role in the pen going forward — whether that role begins at the outset of 2013 or not –  and a young pen featuring Jansen/Tolleson/Rodriguez/Guerra should have fans excited.

Randy Choate

Acquired in the Hanley Ramirez deal, Choate arrived with the reputation of a lefty specialist (.201/.278/.252/.530 career) and continued to dominate his brethren in 2012, limiting them to a .158/.243/.190/.433 slash line.

Though he held lefties down in 2012, Choate was mediocre overall after arriving, posting a 4.89 FIP, 4.16 SIERA, and a negative WAR (-0.1). Most troubling was his propensity for issuing free passes, to the tune of 6.08 per nine in his 36 appearances.

Paco Rodriguez

Just 21 and fresh out of college in the spring of 2012, Paco Rodriguez found himself in 11 games down the stretch and whiffed a very impressive 8.1 per nine over those 6.2 innings. He posted a 3.09 FIP and 4.17 SIERA — as well as a .143/.200/.133/.333 slash line against lefties — in his very small sample size of a career, and holds the distinction of being the first 2012 draftee to debut in The Show.

Rodriguez enters 2013 with just north of 25 professional innings under his belt, and could very likely open 2013 on the major-league roster. Paco’s immediate future hinges on Elbert’s health, the signing of some other free agent lefty specialist, and his 2013 Spring Training performance.

While he has stuff to improve upon (like his control), if he can solidify a spot in the pen he would provide the Dodgers with another lefty and a cheap bullpen option with a ton of upside.

Jamey Wright

Jamey Wright, who made the team out of Spring Training after signing a minor-league deal, surprised most with a solid campaign, surpassing expectations in his 66 appearances and 67.2 innings pitched.

Wright fanned 7.18 per nine while posting a 3.39 FIP and 3.15 SIERA. His splits were quite wacky all the way around, as he allowed southpaws to get on-base more, but righties knocked him around in terms of extra-base hits (.252/.365/.230/.595 versus LH & .283/.337/.329/.666 versus RH).

As alluded to above, Wright did struggle with his control, as he allowed around 4.0 BB/9. He did a great job, however, of keeping the ball in the park — 0.27 HR/9 — which saved him from those walks becoming more damaging. Hitters actually benefited from a bit of luck against him with a .324 BABIP, but Wright’s strong propensity for inducing ground balls (67.3%) and infield popups (12.0% IFFB) allowed him to escape his control problems relatively unscathed.

Having lived off minor-league deals, which he turned into major-league roster spots, for most of the past decade, Wright will head into 2012 — his age-38 season — with a strong likelihood of obtaining a major-league contract. Earning just under $1.5 million last year, Wright will probably receive a small raise, and the Dodgers could do a lot worse.

Odds & Ends

Matt Guerrier spent most of 2012 on the shelf with right elbow inflammation, but managed to return late in the season and appeared in 16 games totaling 14 innings. It did not go well. He pitched to a 6.31 FIP and 4.86 SIERA while walking seven, hitting a batter, and allowing a total of 16 baserunners, six earned runs, and 56 total bases against.

He has a year remaining — at $3.75 million — on the ridiculous three-year deal that Ned Colletti signed him to in late-2010. Whether he has a place in the bullpen though, considering the superior arms around him, is another story entirely.

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Josh Lindblom, prior to being dealt to Philadelphia in the Shane Victorino trade, struggled despite some solid peripherals following a breakout 2011. Though he struck out 8.12/9 IP while walking 3.40/9 IP, Lindblom put up a 5.07 FIP, though his SIERA was a fine 3.66.

What really killed him was the long-ball, as following a 2011 in which he didn’t allow a single homer in almost 30 innings, Josh was touched up for nine dingers before being traded.

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I honestly forgot Mike MacDougal was a Dodger in 2012, but he began the year on a ludicrous guaranteed one-year major-league deal. He quickly flamed out, lasting seven games and 5.2 innings too long. In that short time, he allowed 15 baserunners, five earned runs, and 32 total bases.

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Greg Zakwin is the founder of the site Plaschke Thy Sweater Is Argyle. Follow him on Twitter @ArgyledPlaschke.

Matt Kemp left Tuesday’s game in Colorado after smashing into the center field wall, somehow managing to stay in, and soon thereafter diving for a ball and landing awkwardly. If you’re so inclined, GIFs of the collision can be seen here. Tests revealed no concussion or concussion symptoms, and Matt walked away from the incident with nothing more than a bruised left knee. He returned to the lineup a few days after the frightening incident.

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Kenley Jansen was unavailable for the series in Colorado after experiencing recurring issues with his heart, which felled him for a month or so in 2011 and earlier in 2012 during Spring Training. These new issues are related to the old ones, reports Dylan Hernandez. The Dodgers and Jansen await test results, as his season could be over.

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Chad Billingsley‘s season also hangs in the balance as he awaits what could be season-ending surgery. These fears were expressed earlier in the week by Stan Kasten. Bills’ right elbow was treated with an injection of platelet-rich plasma in an effort to avoid missing the stretch run. Tommy John surgery seems like a possibility if our worst fears come to fruition.

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Scott Elbert was placed on the 15-day DL once again with left elbow inflammation. Shawn Tolleson was recalled to take his place. Don Mattingly is cautiously optimistic that Elbert could return when the 15-day period concludes.

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Matt Guerrier was activated from the 60-day DL, sending Josh Wall back to AAA and Dee Gordon from the 15-day DL to the 60-day DL in the process. Gordon won’t be gone for long though, as he is eligible to return now that rosters have expanded.

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Alfredo Silverio was transferred to the 60-day DL in order to free up a spot on the 40-man roster to allow for John Ely‘s call-up. Silverio is on the DL after suffering multiple injuries in a car crash earlier this year.

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In minor league injury news, Arismendy Ozoria, Luis Vasquez, Mike Antonini, Jarret Martin, Aaron Miller, Greg Wilborn, Casio Grider, Charlie Mirabal, Bobby Coyle, and Tyler Henson were all placed on the 7-day DL, while a host of others – most notably Chris Reed and Bobby Abreu – were activated from the 7-day DL.

So Rubby De La Rosa is back with the Dodgers a little over a year after undergoing Tommy John surgery, and he certainly deserves every bit of the promotion. In the minors, he allowed 0 runs in 12 innings while striking out 12 and walking 3. More importantly, he was sitting in the mid-90s and touching the upper register when needed.

The part I find puzzling though is that the team optioned Javy Guerra to make room for him. I realize that it was either him or Shawn Tolleson, because they were the two that had options and rosters expand in 10 days, but I still find the logic confusing.

With the rest of the bullpen (sans Kenley Jansen) struggling of late, Guerra has put up 11.1 innings of scoreless relief with 13 strikeouts in his last nine appearances. The last time he allowed a run was July 26th. Similarly, Tolleson hasn’t allowed a run since July 22nd.

The predictable defense for demoting either of them is “well they have options”. Which is fine, but if we’re going with the philosophy that the Shane Victorino/Joe Blanton/Brandon League trades were worth it even if they only total a half win improvement because “it’s a dead heat”, then how logical is it to demote your hottest relievers in a bullpen that’s currently struggling to stay afloat?

Some of you know that I’ve followed and have been a fan of Rubby since he showed velocity in the complex leagues as a prospect, but there’s no guarantee he’s going to be lights out either. Point being, if you’re going to justify trading away assets for the most marginal of gains in the context of 2012, then that same attitude should apply to these roster moves as well, especially when there’s considerable dead weight on the roster that nobody would miss.

Jon Heyman of CBS Sports reports that the Dodgers rejected a deal of Ryan Dempster for Allen Webster.

The Cubs offered to send Ryan Dempster to his preferred Dodgers straight up for solid right-handed pitching prospect Allen Webster, but the Dodgers have rejected the offer.

The issue seems to be this: The Dodgers don’t appear to love Dempster quite as much as he loves them.

According to people briefed on the talks, the Dodgers have thus far offered a couple of lesser prospects, guys who may project as relievers.

Could it be that the Dodgers offered some combination of Josh Lindblom, Shawn Tolleson, Josh Wall, and Chris Withrow?

#Dodgers and #Cubs discussing a Ryan Dempster-for-Josh Lindblom deal, source says.

— Jerry Crasnick (@jcrasnick) July 28, 2012

Seems likely that the offered deal from the Dodgers side would include both Withrow and Lindblom because the Cubs were previously rumored to have shown interest in Withrow.

In related trade news, Danny Knobler of CBS Sports reports that the trade might be expanded to include Bryan LaHair or Alfonso Soriano.

The Dodgers and Cubs, stalled on what the Dodgers would give up in a trade for Ryan Dempster, have had some discussions on expanding the deal to also include Alfonso Soriano or Bryan LaHair, sources say.

The inclusion of Soriano or LaHair is still viewed as a longshot, perhaps even a “massive longshot,” as one person briefed on the discussions described it.

I’m guessing that an expanded deal would include haggling over either money (Soriano) or prospects (LaHair). Plus, it would probably include Webster or Garrett Gould in addition to a reliever or two.

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If the Dodgers can’t get Dempster, their attention may turn towards James Shields or Josh Johnson, according to Heyman.

With the Dodgers and Cubs seemingly at an impasse in Ryan Dempster talks, the Dodgers are looking at Josh Johnson and James Shields as rotation alternatives.

Johnson won’t come cheap though.

The Marlins seek a Mark Teixeira-like package for Josh Johnson, Jon Heyman reported yesterday. In other words, Miami seeks at least three good young pieces for the right-hander. The Blue Jays are pursuing Johnson and the Rangers, Angels and Orioles also appear to have interest.

Not sure it matters at that price, because the Dodgers don’t have the horses in the system to make the trade feasible.

Matt Garza of the Cubs was once considered an option, but it doesn’t look like he’ll be dealt anymore.

Matt Garza won’t start before Tuesday’s non-waiver trade deadline, so the chances of a midseason deal involving the right-hander are remote, Bruce Levine of ESPNChicago.com reports (on Twitter). Jim Bowden of ESPN.com and MLB Network Radio notes that Garza might not be traded until the offseason (on Twitter).

An MRI revealed a slight fluid buildup in Garza’s triceps area, manager Dale Sveum told reporters, including Doug Padilla of ESPNChicago.com. The Dodgers and Red Sox are among the teams with reported interest in Garza.

Only reason I worry about this is because it seems more and more like the Dodgers only rotation option is Dempster, which lessens their leverage in a deal.

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Bats are a priority for the Dodgers as well, but are more rumor than substance at this point.

The Dodgers have talked about quite a few other hitters, including both Justin Morneau and Josh Willingham of the Twins. The Twins have said it’s a longshot that they trade Willingham, however.

Phillies still listening on Victorino. Reds, Dodgers, Pirates & Giants among teams interested. But no indication they’re ready to deal him

Justin Morneau is the most intriguing target to me, specifically because he’s making $14 million this year and $14 million next year. His line of .256/.318/.448/.766 is far from impressive, and there are injury concerns, but he does have upside. Plus, the amount of money he’s making is not likely something the Twins want to deal with, so he might not be as expensive in terms of prospects.

Eric Stephen of True Blue LA relays the news that Todd Coffey is out for the year with an elbow strain.

Dodgers relief pitcher Todd Coffey received some bad news on Tuesday, as the reliever is out for the season with a partially torn ulnar collateral ligament in his right elbow.

Coffey didn’t feel any pain in his arm, so he didn’t expect much to come out of Tuesday’s MRI exam.

“The only thing I anticipated was inflammation. I didn’t anticipate any structural damage because it didn’t feel that way,” Coffey said. “I expected rest, maybe in four or five days I’d be good to go but to have that bombshell dropped on me sucks.”

The bullpen injuries are getting a bit ridiculous now, so the team’s depth will matter. Shawn Tolleson will be needed to step up in his front-end role, if not, Josh Wall might get the next shot.

Seriously though, Ned Colletti should just completely stay away from signing veteran bullpen arms.

Juan Rivera was activated off the disabled list and Scott Van Slyke was optioned. In a vacuum, it’s a positive move, because Rivera is likely a better player than Van Slyke, but I’d much rather see his playing time go to a combination of Bobby Abreu/Tony Gywnn Jr./Alex Castellanos instead.

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In what can only be described as surprising, the Dodgers called up Shawn Tolleson, who I had been pining for since the beginning of the year, really. Funny enough though, it was for Javy Guerra, who heads to the disabled list, so this is probably a neutral move unless Tolleson sets the world on fire since Guerra was having a good year himself.

Why excited? In 120 professional innings, Tolleson has a 1.35 ERA, 178 strikeouts, 28 walks, and scouting reports that check out.

Tolleson was ranked #12 in my March Prospect Rankings.

Much to the relief of Dodgers fans everywhere, it was Mike MacDougal who was designed for assignment to make room for the returning Ronald Belisario.

ROSTER MOVE: The @Dodgers today designated RHP Mike MacDougal for assignment while MLB reinstated Ronald Belisario from the Restricted List.

— Los Angeles Dodgers (@Dodgers) May 3, 2012

It’s a relief because, as I discussed before, the bullpen was about to get crowded and moves were going to have to be made. The Dodgers could have gone the easy route, by demoting Josh Lindblom, but instead choose to keep their best pitchers around. Maybe a no-brainer in theory, but given the Dodgers history in practice, I was pleasantly surprised.

With that said, even Belisario’s future is in doubt when Matt Guerrier is ready to return. When Belisario last pitched in the MLB in 2010, he posted a 5.04 ERA, and he had a 7.71 ERA in the 4.1 innings he pitched in the minors this year. Granted, how well he’s throwing is more important than his performance at this juncture, but it’s not a stretch to say he could be the guy who goes for Guerrier in a couple of weeks.

Still though, even if that gets sorted, there’s the issue of whether Shawn Tolleson could help the club right now. Between three levels in 2011, he put up a 1.17 ERA with 105 strikeouts and 18 walks in 69 innings. In 2012, he has a 0.90 ERA at AA with 18 strikeouts and 3 walks. By all accounts, the scouting reports seem to hold up, and while he might not have closer stuff, he has 7th/8th inning guy written all over him, much like Lindblom did, which is more than I can say at this point for Jamey Wright and Todd Coffey.

Despite fan perception, the bullpen isn’t actually a problem area, as it’s been adequately middle of the road thus far. However, it can get better if the Dodgers want it to, and since they’ve shown a change in their process through keeping Lindblom around in favor of an ineffective veteran, I would hope they don’t show hesitation when it comes to Tolleson as well.

With yet another curiously timed injury to a bullpen arm, this time Matt Guerrier, the Dodgers have managed to avoid making a bullpen decision for at least 15 more days.

Dodgers reliever Matt Guerrier, signed in part to be the bullpen workhorse, was placed on the 15-day disabled list Tuesday because of right elbow flexor tendinitis.

Guerrier had an MRI, which revealed no issues with the ligament that leads to Tommy John surgery. He received a platelet-rich plasma injection, will rest for several days, then begin tossing.

The Dodgers called up left-hander Michael Antonini from Triple-A Albuquerque to replace Guerrier in the bullpen.

Michael Antonini was called up from AAA to replace Guerrier for a spell until Todd Coffey returns.

While this game can continue on for a bit, the Dodgers are going to have to cut somebody loose eventually. Especially with Ronald Belisario on the way back.

Troubled Dodgers reliever Ronald Belisario will start a Minor League rehab assignment next week and is eligible to return from a 25-game suspension for violating Major League Baseball’s drug policy on May 4.

Belisario, however, is out of options and the Dodgers must decide if he’s ready to help the club on that date. If not, they cannot send him to the Minor Leagues unless he clears waivers, but he could be taken by another club.

With both Belisario and Guerrier due to return, that leaves the team with Javy Guerra, Kenley Jansen, Guerrier, Scott Elbert, Belisario, Coffey, Mike MacDougal, Jamey Wright, and Josh Lindblom.

Out of that group, two guys have to go, because the Dodgers have a weak bench as it is, and carrying 13 pitchers is just asinine (if they do decide on that, I’ll be sure to have something to say about it).

One has to figure that Guerra, Jansen, Guerrier (big contract), Elbert (only lefty), and Belisario (otherwise why go through the headache?) are going to stick around. So that leaves Coffey, MacDougal, Wright, and Lindblom to battle it out for two spots. Unless Lindblom is struggling by then, he should be kept, which sets up tough decisions on two veteran relievers that were guaranteed contracts. And that situation doesn’t even account for Shawn Tolleson in AA, Josh Wall in AAA, and Michael Antonini in AAA. Much less the likes of Nate Eovaldi as a potential contributor and Rubby De La Rosa in a few months.

At some point, a significant decision is going to have to be made, so the Dodgers are only delaying the inevitable.

Whatever the case may be, I just hope the decision is made based on what’s best for the team and not because the GM decided that the best course of action was to go 12 to 14 deep in the bullpen and neglect depth (or starters) at three or four positions.

Scott Wingo bats against the Visalia Rawhide on April 20th at the Epicenter in Rancho Cucamonga.

Overall, it was a decent week for the minor league affiliates of the Dodgers.

The AAA Isotopes checked in the best record and the best offensive performer, but the A+ Quakes had the best pitcher, just edging out the AA Lookouts.

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Albuquerque Isotopes (6-1)

Runs Scored: 55
Runs Allowed: 40

Player Of The Week

Alex Castellanos – 2B/OF

Castellanos continued his torrid start, going 11-for-25 (.440) with four home runs, eight RBI, nine runs scored, a double, two triples, four walks, and three stolen bases. If he keeps this up, he’s going to force the Dodgers to give him a shot in the majors. His line through 17 games is as follows: .371/.483/.757, four home runs, seven doubles, four triples, seven stolen bases, 18 runs scored, and 12 walks.

Pitcher Of The Week

Cole St. Clair – LHP

St. Clair threw five innings of scoreless relief for the ‘Topes this week. He struck out four, walked three, gave up two hits, and, most importantly, zero runs. With the Dodgers lefty-deficient in the majors, St. Clair could get a look sooner rather than later.

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Chattanooga Lookouts (3-4)

Runs Scored: 35
Runs Allowed: 31

Player Of The Week

Blake Smith – OF

Smith got off to an absolutely miserable start (3-for-27), but he finished this week 9-for-23 (.391) with a home run, a double, four RBI, eight runs scored, and three walks. He seems to be finally hitting his stride and still profiles as one of the best Dodger power prospects in the minors.

Pitcher Of The Week

Shawn Tolleson – RHP

Tolleson threw just 3 2/3 innings this week, but he struck out seven batters while allowing three hits. The performance dropped his career ERA to 0.95 in 106 1/3 innings.

With a low-90s fastball, wipeout cutter, and solid slider, Tolleson isn’t long for the Lookouts and should be among the first relievers called to Los Angeles when the team needs a bullpen arm.

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Rancho Cucamonga Quakes (3-4)

Runs Scored: 31
Runs Allowed: 30

Player Of The Week

Scott Wingo – 2B

Wingo only played in four games this week, but he played well. He went 5-for-13 (.385) with two triples, three runs scored, four walks, zero strikeouts, and three stolen bases.

The 2011 11th-round pick started off his season with a bang, and I was in person on Friday night to see his two triples, which were legit. As Jared Massey of LA Dugout described, he has long strides for being a shorter player (5’11″). Also, he made a nice pivot at second base.

Pitcher Of The Week

Chris Reed – LHP

Reed threw 13 innings in the week, seven of which he did Sunday in his best outing as a professional. He allowed four hits, zero runs, zero walks, and struck out eight. It was a masterful performance by the big lefty and it could be something for him to build on. He had a case of the walks on April 16th against San Jose (five), but still managed to throw six innings of three-run ball.

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Great Lakes Loons (4-3)

Runs Scored: 26
Runs Allowed: 24

Player Of The Week

James Baldwin – OF

Baldwin, who started the season 1-for-30, caught fire a bit this week, going 6-for-22 (.273) with four runs scored and four stolen bases. He’s still striking out too much (35.2 percent), but he’s showing just a little improvement at the plate.

Pitcher Of The Week

Jarret Martin – LHP

Martin was downright masterful at times for the Loons. One of the guys acquired in the Dana Eveland deal, Martin struck out 17 batters in 12 1/3 innings this week, posting a 0.73 ERA while allowing just four walks. Command is Martin’s biggest bugaboo, but it looks like he’s destined for a promotion before too long.

Prospect Rankings Thoughts

Zach Lee has the projection to eventually be a #1/#2, but his stuff right now definitely resembles more of a #2/#3. Hence his production in low-A.

I liked both Webster and Eovaldi as sleepers a while ago, but I gave the edge to Allen Webster over Nate Eovaldi because although there’s more risk to Webster, I think there’s more upside as well. Eovaldi can improve his breaking pitches, but not enough to be more than a #3 starter, and I think ending up as a reliever is a definite possibility.

I have Joc Pederson higher than most, and I acknowledge the risk, but I liked his swing, his plate discipline, and he’s probably going to be good defensively. If the power projection comes through, he’ll end up as a solid regular.

Angel Sanchez is currently what everybody assumes Chris Reed will be. Both can pitch in the mid-90s, have good secondary pitches, and possess a solid tertiary offering. They are basically the same to me, but Sanchez actually accomplished something as a professional, so he gets the edge. It’s odd that people bag on Sanchez because he might be a reliever down the road but don’t pay any attention to the fact that while Reed has the pitches, he hasn’t even made the transition from reliever to starter yet.

Garrett Gould is a solid prospect that does everything well but has concerns about how his stuff will play against advanced bats.

Even though he’s a reliever, Josh Lindblom clocks in so high because it’s rare to have a guy on a prospect list that has posted a 2.73 ERA and 2.35 FIP in 29.2 innings over 27 appearances at the MLB level.

Chris Withrow has a ton of potential, but he’s going to be 23 and I have a hard time believing his control with improve drastically. However, it just needs to get a bit better for him to be MLB useful.

Gorman Erickson might be a surprise this high, but there’s a lot to like from big switch hitting catchers with pop, plate discipline, consistent contact, and decent defensive skills. A worry of mine is that the Dodgers don’t seem to like him, as they favor defensive catchers who can’t hit, but hopefully he hits enough in 2012 to change their minds.

Alfredo Silverio and Alex Castellanos both have the tools to succeed, but you’ll have to excuse me for not being excited about their plate discipline, and the strikeout rate of Castellanos is scary. Silverio has made me believe he can be a major leaguer, but I don’t know if he’ll ever be regular. Similarly, I think Castellanos’ bat only plays at second, so it’s important to me that he can stay at the position.

Shawn Tolleson could be better than Lindblom, but there are more question marks there with him, including experience and his almost dangerous throwing motion.

James Baldwin and Scott Barlow are the upside guys. Both could be out of the top 25 by November or be in the top 10, depending on how their 2012 goes. Following them are Tim Federowicz and Steven Ames, both of whom aren’t impact players but look to be a solid bet to be contributors.

Blake Smith and Angelo Songco are one to two years behind where most regulars are at this stage in their careers (well Songco isn’t that bad, but he lacks the raw tools), so they will always have questions about competition level until they hit at the MLB level. Speaking of that, it’ll be interesting to see if Scott Van Slyke ever gets a chance. I think he can hit, but he’s gonna have to hit a ton to be relevant.

Aaron Miller and Ethan Martin both need breakout 2012 seasons in a bad way. Miller simply needs to regain his old stuff and stay healthy. Martin needs to find his mechanics and the strike zone. Upside will only take them so far as they age.

Jonathan Garcia has always been an underdog favorite of mine. He wrecked the Midwest League early on but got exposed later by breaking balls. Realistically, he’ll have to hit a lot because he has little else of value, but he has surprising pop and a solid swing. O’Koyea Dickson is another prospect that will have to be rushed because of his age, but if he hits like he’s capable, he could reach high-A in 2012. I really like his swing and I think he has good pop, but he’s not tall and is stuck at first base, so there’s a ton of pressure on his bat.

Much like Webster and Eovaldi, Matt Magill was a favorite of mine from before, but unlike them, his stuff hasn’t exploded quite the same. Still, he has above average velocity and can miss bats with his off-speed stuff, but he’ll have to perform at AA to gain any respect. I’m interested to see if he progresses at that stage or becomes Tim Sexton.

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Honestly, I thought it would be a lot worse than this. Fortunately though, the Dodgers have a ton of potential contributors, even if most of them are clocking in on the pitching side of the ledger.

The top 10 is quite solid from my view, even if it does lack huge upside. However, after that the Dodgers are stuck with a bunch of guys who are more likely to end up as part-timers or utility players than regulars. My hope is that one out of the seven or eight bats that are too old for their level but still produce in the minor leagues eventually becomes a regular.

No, there’s not a ton of star potential, but given the budget restraints, the complete lack of care in the international market, and the mass graduation of talent in 2011, it could have been a ton worse.

Dominican Summer League Dodgers: Pitchers
Dominican Summer League Dodgers: Hitters
Arizona League Dodgers: Pitchers
Arizona League Dodgers: Hitters
Ogden Raptors: Pitchers
Ogden Raptors: Hitters

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Today I continue my off-season recap of the Los Angeles Dodgers minor league affiliates, moving on to the pitchers of the Great Lakes Loons.

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I’ll be picking the prospects for the 2012 Prospective Prospect Profiles list from these reviews, so it might be worth reading. Or not.

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Garrett Gould – RHP – 19

Garrett Gould Statistics

His 2.40 ERA is being a bit kind, but he certainly had the breakout season people like me were waiting for. He posted a 3.23 FIP with a K% of 20.4 (Average=20.7%) and a BB% of 7.3 (Average=8.6%). His peripherals still need work, but he was among the youngest to play in the Midwest League, so it was certainly a noteworthy performance.

Watching him pitch since he was drafted, he always appeared to be victim of horrid umpiring and defense, so I was always higher on him than his statistics indicated, but this was a surprise nevertheless. His fastball now sits in the low-90s, but his sharp curve will always be his out-pitch. Despite reports, this was the first year I have seen him try to use a third pitch (change) and it wasn’t that bad. His control didn’t improve much, but his command in the zone did, inducing more ground balls than before.

He’ll probably see high-A in 2012 and could be pushed to AA if he thrives.

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Zach Lee – RHP – 19

Zach Lee Statistics

While this wasn’t a bad professional debut by any means, he’s the same age as Gould and had a worse season statistically, so he didn’t exactly set the world on fire like some predicted.

He carried a 3.47 ERA and a 3.68 FIP over 109 innings with a 19.4 K% and a 6.8 BB%. The most disappointing part about his year was the lack of missed bats, but his command and polish were immediately apparent.

Lee shows command, confidence, a fastball with solid movement, and two good off-speed pitches. However, his fastball velocity leaves me short of anointing him. He still generally sits in the low-90s and unless that takes an uptick, I’m just not seeing this #1 starter potential people keep talking about. I know that sounds negative, but I get e-mails penciling Lee in as the #2 starter behind Kershaw in 2014 like it’s his god given right and I just don’t have that level of confidence in him.

I like Lee plenty, I’m just not willing to crown him because he might be the best prospect the Dodgers have.

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Scott McGough – RHP – 21

Scott McGough Statistics

Serving as the primary closer for the Loons, McGough struck out 25 in 20.1 innings while walking only 6 batters en route to a 2.21 ERA (2.27 FIP).

I haven’t seen him get much attention but I liked him at the University Of Oregon and I think he has a chance at a bullpen role down the road. Sitting 91-93 and touching 95, there’s plenty of velocity to make it to the show. However, his low-80s slurve will need to improve, not so much the command like most young pitchers, but the break itself needs to be sharper or it’ll get hammered as he moves levels.

He should move to high-A in 2012 with an eye on AA.

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Red Patterson – RHP – 24

Red Patterson Statistics

He split time between A and A+, but was basically the same at both levels. Overall, he posted a 3.69 ERA with an impressive 3.19 FIP due to his 24.7 K% and 6.5 BB%.

While that’s all well and good, the problem is that he’s 24 and in A-ball. He doesn’t just need to do well next year in AA, he needs to destroy it. Maybe he’s a late bloomer, but I don’t know many impact pitchers who were in A-ball at 24. Just saying.

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Juan Rodriguez – RHP – 22

Juan Rodriguez Statistics

Acquired in what I still maintain was a pointless trade that sent Trayvon Robinson away, Rodriguez shows raw promise on the mound. He posted a 5.19 ERA with the Red Sox before coming over and putting up a 1.59 ERA for the Dodgers, but nothing truly changed. He had a 2.91 FIP with the Red Sox and a 2.96 FIP with the Dodgers on the strength of an unreal 31.9 K% and a wild 12.4 BB%.

He throws the ball hard, regularly in the mid-90s, but his frisbee slider could use depth, consistency, and command. Rodriguez obviously has the stuff to succeed, but he’s extremely raw for his age and will need time. I’m not sure he will ever develop better command unless he makes changes to his motion, which is violent and wild. Additionally, he has an easy tell on what type of pitch is coming.

Rodriguez should move to high-A in 2012, with the possibility of AA.

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Angel Sanchez – RHP – 21

Angel Sanchez Statistics

Making his professional debut at age 21, Sanchez proved worth the wait, posting a 2.82 ERA and 3.43 FIP in 99 innings primarily as a starter. He struck out 20.3% of batters and walked 9.4%, both of which were below league average.

Statistically, there were hiccups, but his stuff is legit. His fastball sits in the mid-90s and he can touch high-90s, while he has two potential plus off-speed pitches in his curve and change. He still has a ways to go refining everything, but it was an impressive debut. However, I would advise against letting the surprise aspect of his debut lead to overrating him.

He should be in high-A in 2012, though I would probably keep him there for the year as he develops and adapts.

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Shawn Tolleson – RHP – 23

Shawn Tolleson Statistics

I think he had an okay year in 2011.

He started with the Loons, posting a 0.00 ERA and -0.40 (yes, really) FIP, which consisted of a 58.9 K% and 7.1 BB%. That’s just stupid. He then moved on to the Quakes in A+, where he posted a 0.93 ERA with a 1.96 FIP. His K% was 47.2 and his BB% was 8.3, so you can see how he was already on his way to mediocrity. Then he moved on to the Lookouts in AA, where he posted a 1.62 ERA and a 2.16 FIP. His 29.8 K% and 6.1 BB% were both way better than league average.

His fastball is average, clocking in the low-90s, but his high-80s cutter is all he has needed. It has late, sharp break and he commands it well, making the offering devastating to just about everybody. Moreover, he throws it against his body, hiding the location well. When it’s on, it doesn’t matter if the batters know it’s coming. Of course, the bad part about having awkward mechanics is injury risk, and he has a history of it, having undergone elbow surgery in high school.

Wouldn’t surprise me at all to see Tolleson making an impact on the 2012 Dodgers, but he probably won’t start there since the roster is crowded.

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Logan Bawcom – RHP – 22

Logan Bawcom Statistics

Serving as a reliever, Bawcom posted a 2.78 ERA and 2.30 FIP with the Loons and a 3.74 ERA and 3.62 FIP with the Quakes. His 30.7 K% highlights his performance, but his BB% sits at 10.2, so his command will need to improve down the road.

He sits in the low-90s and has two off-speed offerings (slider/change) that could grade out as above average. I doubt he’ll ever have elite stuff, so his command has to take strides if he’s to be an impact arm out of the pen.

He’ll probably spend 2012 in high-A, looking to move to AA.