Kenley Jansen

Kenley Jansen is the epitome of an under-appreciated fireman in the pen, putting out any fire, no matter the size, intensity, or probability for continuation.

Pitching full-time for just about three years, the 24-year-old fireballer fanned an out-of-this-world 16.10 batters per nine innings last season. Yes, he walked a few too many (4.36), but he has plenty of time to improve his control, especially since he’s still learning  to be a pitcher.

A 1.74 FIP, 2.06 tERA, 1.59 SIERA, and 1.04 WHIP are just nails, and Kenley handled both righties and lefties with ease (.156/.264/.200/.464 and .163/.269/.194/.463, respectively). His year was even more impressive when you consider two things: he had three atrocious outings that skewed already amazing numbers, and he battled injury and a heart murmur (which reoccurred this Spring but doesn’t appear to be serious).

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Kenley should always be used in the most pressing situation, not in your conventional ninth inning, three-run-lead save situation. Bring him in to face the heart of the opponent’s lineup with the game close regardless of whether it’s the seventh or eighth or ninth. That’s what firemen do: they put out the most dangerous fires.

Oh, and just for kicks, let’s quickly look at his July and September from last year:

July – 10 IP, 6 Baserunners, 17 K/4 BB, 0 HR

September – 13.2 IP, 11 Baserunners, 32 K/3 BB, 0 HR

Just sick.

Javy Guerra

Javy Guerra entered 2011 as just another arm in the Dodgers pool of pitchers. He closed out the campaign as the closer, and with many fans perceiving him to be a better pitcher than he actually is. Guerra is good, but not great, and he’s the closer by virtue of everybody else before him in 2011 being hurt and/or terrible.

Guerra’s minor league career was solid, with a lot of strikeouts and a lot of walks. He debuted in May, and proceeded to put up a two-month period featuring a shiny ERA and weak peripherals (2.35 in 15.1 innings, with 9 K, 5 BB, and 22 baserunners allowed). Oddly enough, he posted a .327 BABIP against during this time.

The next three months don’t do much to tell us how dominant Guerra could ever be, as he allowed 36 baserunners in 31.1 innings. He walked 13, allowed two homers, and fanned 29 in this time frame. Again, not atrocious numbers, but nothing to get overly excited about, especially considering his BABIP in this period was .232 against.

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Guerra, at just 26 years old, is definitely a guy I’d like to have in the pen. He has upside, is cheap, and has shown the ability in the minors, and for stretches of time in the bigs, to miss bats. In fact, I want a guy like him to be the closer while the better pitcher – Jansen – is placed in higher leverage situations and asked to get the opponent’s better offensive players out

I just don’t want Guerra, based off of the outdated Saves statistic, to get more credit than Kenley. I’m a simple man with simple desires.

Scott Elbert

Heading into 2011 with the reputation as an injury-prone, command lacking, questionable makeup having potential bust, Scott Elbert ended the year by cementing himself as a fixture in the Dodgers remade pen. Taking over the left-handed reliever role from the also injury-riddled Hong Chih Kuo, Elbert fanned 9.18 per nine innings while issuing 3.78 BB/9 IP, an improvement on his small sample size MLB career and lengthier minor league tenure.

Elbert has always had great stuff and posted big strikeout numbers in the minors, but could never get a footing in The Show. He was only given 26.1 innings in his previous three stints with the big league club to impress in, and certainly didn’t, but the potential was always there if he could harness his stuff and stay healthy.

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With that great promise coming to fruition in ’11, and room to still grow and improve, Scott will be expected to shut down lefties, who only hit a putrid .191/.267/.227/.494 against him last year. Elbert can certainly hold his own against righties (.255/.344/.328/.672 in 2011), but like most southpaws, he’s much, much better against his hitting brethren. Elbert will probably be the only lefty in the pen to start 2012, and with upside and talent, his future in Los Angeles is finally clear.

Ned Colletti’s Motley Crew Of Veteran Goodness

Mike MacDougal is back on a guaranteed (!) one-year deal following a shiny ERA, terrible everything else season. In 57 innings that had other teams frothing at the mouth, Mike whiffed just 6.47 per nine while issuing 4.58 free passes each nine he took the mound.

But hey, he had a 2.02 ERA and was an experienced vet. That totally makes up for the 4.33 tERA, inability to miss bats, and the taking up of a roster spot that would be better served on Josh Lindblom.

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Matt Guerrier … exists. 6.78 K/9, 3.39 BB/9, 3.43 FIP, and all.

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Todd Coffey received a guaranteed one-year deal, and coming off of a 3.41 FIP season, he could actually be useful if used against righties only. Coffey was death to right-handers in 2011, allowing just a .193/.250/.255/.505 slash line against while whiffing three times as many as he walked. Of course, conversely, lefties murdered him, mashing to the tune of a .338/.404/.416/.820 line, and they drew nine walks while only going down swinging 11 times.

So yeah. Use him against righties, and never let him try to sprint his guts out to face Carlos Gonzalez or Lance Berkman or even Juan Pierre‘s limp bat, for that matter.

All of that said, would I have signed Coffey? No. But I’m not Ned Colletti.

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Ronald Belisario is back! After he serves a suspension for a drug-related incident, that is. He’ll almost never be able to replicate his BABIP-fueled 2009 where he fanned over 8.0/9 IP, but hey, another bullpen arm could never hurt.

Granted, he’s out of options, so when he does return, someone has to go, and anyone not named MacDougal should not be replaced by Belisario. Heck, not even Coffey, who’s been pretty decent against righties for a long time.

But seriously. Get rid of MacDougal.

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Blake Hawksworth, once he returns from injury, must be on the 25-man roster.

Why? Because his sister is Erin Hawksworth.

Enough said.

Clayton Kershaw

What more can I say about Clayton Kershaw other than that he has perhaps the brightest future of any player in baseball – and has already had more success than most -  and all at just 24 years of age?

Entering 2011, Kershaw was coming off of two 4+ WAR seasons (4.1, 4.7), had fanned over nine per nine innings in back-to-back campaigns, and had already cut his walk rate by a full free pass from 2009 to 2010. His FIP was no higher than 3.12 between ’09 and ’10, and he had exhibited the excellent skills of inducing weak contact (IFFB% in 2009 and 2010: 13.5% and 12.4%, respectively) and keeping the ball in the park (0.92/0.37/0.57 HR/9 marks between 2008 and 2010).

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2011 proved to be his best season yet, and the young man is not even close to his prime. He whiffed 9.57/9 IP, cut his walk rate down by almost a walk and a half to 2.08 per nine, kept the ball in the park yet again (~half a home run per game rate), and induced infield popups 13.3 percent of the time while limiting the amount of line drives hit against him (18.2% in ’11, career 18.7%).

Kershaw produced a FIP of 2.47, a 2.52 tERA, and a 2.81 SIERA, all of which serve as career-best marks. One of the major reasons for Clayton’s success was his slider, which he threw over 25% of the time. Though we all remember how foolish he made Sean Casey look with his curve way back when in Spring Training, and know how devastating “Public Enemy Number One” can be, the slider is a more controllable pitch, and Kershaw can more easily throw it for strikes. Looking at his pitch selection, it’s easy to see why Clayton has reduced his walk total in three straight seasons. He’s thrown the curve less in each of his seasons in The Show (23.0%/16.8%/7.0%/5.4%) while simultaneously increasing the usage of said slider (0.3%/6.9%/19.6%/25.5%).

With a 6.8 WAR season and two straight 200-plus inning campaigns now under his belt, the doubters who loudly proclaimed the Dodgers had no “ace”, and that Clayton walked too many to ever really be successful, have nowhere to turn.

Chad Billingsley

Chad Billingsley has been an excellent number two starter over his six-year career. Still just 27 and sporting a career 3.71 FIP, 3.84 tERA, and over eight strikeouts per nine, Billingsley is only now entering his prime and can improve upon what has been a very, very good start to any major league career.

But don’t tell that to countless Dodgers fans and analysts who see him as nothing more than a weak-hearted and intestinal-fortitude lacking bum. In fairness, less see him this way after his career-best 2010, but many still view him as a detriment to the Dodger rotation.

There is no doubt Bills has areas of his game he needs to improve on. He’s always allowed too many baserunners (career 1.37 WHIP), and his K/9 IP has fallen in four consecutive years (9.01/8.21/8.03/7.28), while his walks per nine innings pitched jumped last season to an unacceptable 4.02 after a career-best mark of 3.24 in ’10.

Never hampered much by the long ball (career 0.67 HR/9 IP), Chad has maintained a fairly normalized BABIP of .302 and induced a marginal amount of infield popups at 7.6% (although last campaign saw a career-high 10.5 IFFB%). Though he’s faced bouts of being singled to death, Chad doesn’t produce as much weak contact as you would hope he would, which hurts him and the numbers, particularly with an overall weak defense behind him.

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Billingsley has twice been a 4+ WAR pitcher, with a 3.1 WAR season coming off of a broken leg mixed in for good measure. Yes, there are areas of his game that need improvement and have always needed help, and yes, I would move him in the right deal (with a big bat in return). That said, he’s a vital cog in the Dodger machine, and has been a really, really good pitcher for a number of years.

The Dodgers could do a lot worse behind Kersh (see below and below and below), and fans should be happy a supremely talented pitcher with upside like Chad possesses is in the rotation and in the fold through at least 2014.

Ted Lilly

Ted Lilly is actually Latin for “Home Run Steal”, for those of you who were unaware.

The more you know.

Lilly, in his first full season with the club – and the first of a three-year, $30+ million back-loaded deal with a no-trade clause in ’11 and ’12 – was predictably bad. Nearly historically bad, as he could not stop allowing balls to fly out of the park and baserunners to fly 90 feet after 90 feet. He gave up 28 homers and 35 swiped bags, and was nearly one of two 30-30 men for the 2011 Dodgers. Lilly has historically given up home runs at an alarmingly-astounding rate, with over one per game in every season of his thirteen-year big league career.

Lilly posted more than acceptable strikeout and walk numbers (7.38 and 2.38 per nine, respectively), as well as a very good WHIP of 1.16.  Unfortunately, when you allow home runs out the wazoo and free bases, your year-end numbers look pretty bad. A 4.21 FIP for a third starter isn’t outrageous, but for the money he’s making, he needs to be more productive and much more consistent.

Lilly allowed 23 homers and a .474 SLG% in his first 22 starts, but just five long balls and a .293 SLG% in his last 11 starts. He actually got lucky on the season with a .260 BABIP against, but of course, home runs don’t affect BABIP, so Lily has maintained a .270 BABIP over his career.

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A three-year decline in WAR, a 36-year-old body, and a three-year increase in walk rate with a history of too many walks allowed doesn’t bode well for a guy the Dodgers will expect and need to be as productive as Hiroki Kuroda was. A career tERA of 4.61 for your third starter on an offensively-light squad isn’t exactly optimal team building strategy.

But hey, he induces a ton of popups. I’m sure that makes up for it.

Aaron Harang

Signed to be the number 3/4 starter following a “rebound season” that was all Petco Park, Aaron Harang‘s days as an effective and productive pitcher are over.

Once a 4+ WAR pitcher for three straight seasons, the 33-year-old righty (now the proud owner of a back-loaded two-year contract) has seen his strikeout rate fall in three consecutive seasons to a paltry 6.54 per nine in 2011. He’s generally kept the walks down, but with a declining strikeout rate, the fact that he has walked over 3.0/9 IP the last two seasons is troubling.

Harang’s FIP has not been below four since President Bush was still in office, and like the man above him in the piece and the man to follow, he’s massively prone to the round-tripper. He has surrendered over one homer per game each of the last six seasons, and has done so in eight of his ten career seasons, with the other two yielding marks of 0.80 and 0.94 HR/game.

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With a three-year decline in WAR, a career WHIP of 1.35, and recent injury problems, this is exactly the guy you’d want to give a two-year deal to, with more money in the second year, and a mutual option for a possible third year, right?

Put your hand down Ned Colletti.

Chris Capuano

Chris Capuano was signed to back-loaded two-year deal (sound familiar?) after a pretty solid comeback season with the New York Mets following an injury-filled 2010. He fanned over 8.0/9 IP while walking under three per nine, and had a solid FIP around 4, just about what you’d like from a number 4/5 starter.

Unfortunately, he can’t keep the ball in the park, allowing over 1.3 HR per game last season. Of note is that it was not a blip; it’s long been a trend of the lefty (a la Lilly), as he’s allowed over a homer per game for the last six seasons, with a near two long balls per game mark in 2004.

Yes, Dodger Stadium will help, but giving up a massive amount of home runs isn’t exactly what you want to be known for, regardless of where you pitch.

Coming off of a 2009 season full of late-game heroics, 2010 and beyond appeared to hold great promise offensively for Andre Ethier. However, a pinkie injury in ’10 followed by a knee injury last season – along with any existing offensive flaws and limitations that remained – threw a wrench in his plans. Limited to 139 and 135 games over the past two seasons, respectively, questions regarding attitude, desire, and his long-term future with the club have arisen and plagued the right fielder.

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Before we tackle the numbers, let me address those lingering questions involving intangibles, makeup, and the surly personality of Dre.

I couldn’t sincerely care infinitesimally less if Ethier is not the most pleasant athlete to be around. It does not matter one iota to me whether he wants to play with his college buddy Dustin Pedroia in the future, or even in the present for that matter. One thing, and one thing only, concerns me in my assessment of Ethier: is he going to produce enough to protect Matt Kemp and justify still being on this team?

Will Andre hit lefties at all? Will his fielding not be terrible (last year’s phony Gold Glove Award aside)? Will he ever post a WAR over 3.5? Can he stay healthy after battling multiple injuries over the last few seasons?

These are the things that give me pause with Ethier, the other stuff is just the icing on the cake of concern.

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2011 saw Ethier continue to flail at the plate against left-handers, putting up a line of .220/.258/.305/.563 with a 41/7 K/BB mark and just one long ball. In the field, Andre posted a 6.8 UZR/150, which was his best showing since 2007, which he then followed with three straight years of not just negative, but double-digit negative UZR/150s.

Dre’s overall slash line in ’11 checked in at .292/.368/.421/.789 with a .343 wOBA, and certainly some of that can be attributed to the knee injury he was dealing with. That being said, a 2.9 WAR (and never higher than his 2008 mark of 3.5) simply will not cut it for a guy entering his decline phase who is set to make just under $11 million this season as he settles into the cleanup spot behind The Bison and heads towards free agency in the winter.

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The question we should all be asking is what would the return on Andre be should he be sent packing on or before the trade deadline, as I think that would be the best contribution he could make to the Dodgers going forward. Selling low on him would be one thing, but there should still be sufficient interest considering how much weight things like hitting streaks and walk-off bombs carry with many a GM. Unfortunately, Ned Colletti desires to sign Ethier long-term, a truly scary proposition that frightens me when the subject in question is a guy heading into his age 30 season who can’t hit southpaws, is a range-lacking dud with the glove, and has dealt with multiple ailments the last couple of campaigns.

A long-term extension for Ethier would be extremely short-sighted on the Dodgers part. Ethier already makes an inordinate amount of money for the actual production he provides, and in a contract year his value could end up being even higher if he goes all Adrian Beltre on us (minus the consistently excellent defense Beltre provided). A 30-game hit streak, a handful of walk-off hits two years ago, and a gift Gold Glove – accompanied by the fact that there are enough mediocre GMs out there – should yield a good haul on the open market, and that’s a trade the Dodgers must jump on.

When you’re a team full of over-the-hill or never-were veterans, a team that is offensively-challenged to the umpteenth degree beyond your dominating center fielder, and a team that has a broke owner, playing your top offensive prospect who doesn’t make a lot of money and has the most upside of any of your left field candidates is the obvious and wise choice.

Unfortunately, if you’re the Los Angeles Dodgers, and more to the point, Ned Colletti, you sign Juan Rivera for $4 million (with a $4 million club option for 2013) and confuse the whole baseball world yet again.

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Rivera – after being plucked off waivers following his release from the Toronto Blue Jays – stepped to the plate 246 times over 62 games and hit .274/.333/.406 with a .324 wOBA.

Now, you may be asking yourselves how anyone could be impressed with this, aside from the fact that it meant sayonara to Marcus Thames, Jay Gibbons, and Eugenio Velez. Well, Rivera’s impressive play, in the eyes of Colletti, is based on two things: a BABIP-fueled (.358) 34-game stretch in which he smacked the ball to the tune of a .322/.367/.496/.863 line, and 46 RBIs in those 62 games in Dodger Blue. In his last 28 games to end the campaign, Rivera’s slash line: .221/.297./308/.605 with a .236 BABIP. Rivera’s career batting average on balls in play is .283, but it has not exceeded .300 since 2006. He most certainly has a place on this team, and one we should all welcome, but that place is not making four million dollars and starting in left field every day.

Rivera performs well against lefties, to the tune of a .289/.335/.495/.830 line, and the Dodgers have a first baseman and a right fielder who can’t hit lefties to save their tails. A match made in baseball heaven this should be. Platoon Juan with both Andre Ethier and James Loney, leaving left field wide open for the club’s best offensive prospect, who has nothing left to prove in the minors: Jerry Sands.

Rivera has never been more than a 2.8 WAR player, and Sands has displayed power, a good eye at the plate, and the ability to get on-base. Plus, and this can’t be stressed enough: he’s got upside and is only 24 years of age. If either of their respective glove work is concerning (Rivera actually boats a career UZR/150 of 4.8 in left and Sands’ best work in the field in small sample sizes has been in right), Tony Gwynn, Jr. is always around to play late-inning caddy.

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The moral of the story is this: don’t sign Juan Rivera for four million bones to be a starter on your team, and don’t let Ned Colletti have control of the signings to begin with.

Heading into 2012, the Los Angeles Dodgers will have a new face manning the shortstop position. With Rafael Furcal traded away in 2011 and Jamey Carroll off to the Minnesota Twins, Dee Gordon will take the reins and look to utilize his speed, range, and strong arm.

One of the team’s top prospects heading into 2011, Gordon got a chance to play after Furcal was injured, and his speed was on display from the get go, as he swiped 24 bases in 31 attempts, good for a 77.5% success rate. Unfortunately for Gordon, he missed time with a shoulder injury, and his slight frame will probably always leave him vulnerable to injury on some level.

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What is more concerning when examining Gordon is his minuscule walk rate of just 3% and a poor UZR/150. To be a successful leadoff man, Gordon will have to draw more free passes or become the reincarnation of Ichiro circa the early 2000s. Flash will never be a power hitter, but the club doesn’t need him to be. Just getting on-base at an solid clip and being an efficient baserunner will serve the team well as he sets the table for Matt Kemp and Andre Ethier. In the field, Gordon will have to improve on his -21.5 UZR/150, though that total is obviously subject to small sample size bias, as he played in just under 450 innings in 2011.

Working in Gordon’s favor is that he doesn’t go down on strikes often, never whiffing in more than 15% of his plate appearances since turning pro (with a 2011 MLB mark of 11.6%). A .304/.325/.362 line with a .314 wOBA simply won’t cut it though, and Dee will need to reach base more often and pound out doubles and triples in order to be a plus with the bat. Any of his minor league lines in 2008, 2009, or 2011 (.331/.371/.430, .301/.362/.394, .333/.373/.410) would serve Gordon, the Dodgers, The Bison, and the pitching staff well.

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Don Mattingly has already proclaimed Dee the leadoff guy, and while a more patient hitter like A.J. Ellis is probably better suited to leadoff, Dee has the makeup of a traditional top-of-the-order guy with his speed and bunting ability.

He won’t soon get moved down in the order, but Dee can certainly do himself a favor by being more selective at the dish and drawing a free pass every now and then.

I am fairly certain that everyone outside of Ned Colletti dreads the notion of Juan Uribe playing any amount of games or innings in Dodger blue this season that exceeds one. Unfortunately, that’s exactly what the Dodger brass is counting on. Uribe enters 2012 as the starting third baseman following one of the worst seasons in recent memory, and with a full year to go beyond 2012 on his three-year, $21 million back-loaded contract, which still has $16 million remaining on it.

Uribe, coming off an injury-plagued 2011 in which he appeared in just 77 games, started 53 at the hot corner. Let’s focus on the positive first, because there happens to be just one positive when it comes to Uribe: his glove. Juan posted a 17.1 UZR/150 in just over 462 innings at third last season, a fact that aligns well with his career numbers at third, as well as at second and short.

With the lumber flailing in his hands, Uribe posted a slash line of .204/.264/.293/.557 with a pitiful wOBA of .250. He fanned in just over 20% of his plate appearances while drawing free passes at a clip of just 5.8%. A woeful ISO of .089 from a man supposedly filled with power simply will not cut it. Uribe ended up posting a WAR of 0.4, and that was only in the black due to his plus glove and acceptable baserunning abilities.

Juan Uribe is a more than capable defender, and would not be out of place as a Swiss Army Knife reserve coming off the end of the bench for defense or to occasionally pinch-hit in the hopes he could run into one.

Unfortunately, Juan Uribe will be asked to hit often this season. Perhaps the Mayans were right.

35 in June. Hasn’t played more than 132 games since 2007. Absolutely abysmal with the bat. Ladies and gentlemen, your starting second baseman in 2012, Mark Ellis.

Signed to a ludicrous two-year deal for over $8 million in the offseason, Ellis comes to Los Angeles with the reputation of a good glove and “veteran bat”. The first of those things is quite true, as Ellis has posted a career UZR/150 of 8.2 in over 9000 innings at second, and Ellis’ last four years with the glove look like this: 20.6, 2.1, 12.7, and 6.7 (UZR/150). While that precipitous drop between 2010 and 2011 is concerning, Ellis should no doubt be solid in the field this season.

If only he could just play the field and never swing the lumber. The “veteran bat” Ned Colletti is so fond of put up a line last season of .248/.288/.346/.634 with a putrid .283 wOBA, and in over 4500 career plate appearances, Ellis has hit to the tune of a .266/.331/.397 slash line with a .321 wOBA.

Ellis’ walk rate has been all over the map, with two seasons above 10% and a career mark of just 7.8%. It is that career mark that is the most telling number, however, as Ellis’ last two campaigns have checked in at 8.1% and 4.2%, respectively. He doesn’t strike out an inordinate amount of the time (14.5% in 2011, 13.5% career), but the upward trend in his whiff rate in 2011 from 11.4% to 14.5%, combined with the decrease in walk rate and the mediocre power is certainly a troubling trend. His big (for a second baseman) power days are gone, and a move to Dodger Stadium is not going to help that downward spiral.

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Don Mattingly has already all but guaranteed Ellis will bat second behind Dee Gordon, so Matt Kemp will step to the dish a number of times this season with the bases empty.

But hey, you can’t put a price on that veteran experience.

“A Tale of Two James Loneys” would be a great title for a novella, and it’s also the most apt description of Loney’s 2011 season.

Manning first in what was another season of “James Loney will finally hit for power and win a Gold Glove” vs. “James Loney will continue to under-perform, and by God we can do better”, Loney actually produced his best campaign to date. Unfortunately, it was still underwhelming, and even more unfortunately, it “earned” him another year and another chance in Dodger Blue.

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Between Opening Day and the end of May, Loney’s line looked like this: .249/.292/.325/.617 with nine extra-base hits in 212 plate appearances. From June 1st through the end of the season, Loney mashed (certainly by his standards) to the tune of a .311/.365/.470/.835 slash line with 34 extra-base hits in 370 plate appearances.

The real question, of course, is what precipitated this massive turnaround, and whether it’s sustainable.

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I’m not a scouting guy, and my strengths do not lie in analyzing batting mechanics and things of that nature. I’m a numbers guy, so that’s where we’re headed.

BABIP most definitely played a role, as a .337 mark helped to fuel the latter portion of James’ season, while a .263 BABIP accompanied Loney’s early season putridness (it may not be a word, but it’s as accurate a description as they come). Loney’s career batting average on balls in play is .311, so in short, he wasn’t as bad or as good as his two seasons would indicate.

That being said, all evidence points to James being more the first guy than the second half slugger.

Prior to 2011, James had put up declining numbers across the board. A two-year decline in OBP (.357/.329), BB% (10.7%/8.0%), and homers (13/10) went hand-in-hand with a four-year downward spiral in both SLG% (.538/.434/.399/.395) and wOBA (.389/.333/.332/.315), and a two-year increase in K% (10.4%/14.7%). Loney did cut down on his whiffs last year (11.5%), but he also drew even less walks (7.2%). Furthermore, since his career year in regards to value was accompanied by a .288/.339/.416 line with a .329 wOBA, .128 ISO, and 43 extra-base hits as an everyday first baseman, his status on the squad has to be in doubt.

With the leather, James had his best season, posting a 5.6 UZR/150, though for his career he has barely been an average glove man (0.1 UZR/150). Loney has never put up a WAR greater than the 2.3 he managed in ’11, and he’s averaged barely a 1.4 WAR in his six seasons in The Show (four full seasons).

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Which James Loney will grace us with his presence this year, I can’t predict with 100% certainty. However, based on the abundance of data we have at our disposal (namely over 3000 career plate appearances), it is safe to say he’ll continue to not hit for power, not draw walks, and generally underwhelm immensely at the plate, while being atrocious against southpaws (.213/.254/.307/.561 in 2011, .252/.309/.368/.677 career), as he enters his age 28 season.

If Don Mattingly is wise, he’ll platoon Juan Rivera with Loney at first, move Andre Ethier to left field, and play Jerry Sands everyday in right.

When the list of Hall Of Fame catchers in Los Angeles Dodgers history is taken into consideration – Roy Campanella & Mike Piazza (not to mention the good showings of Russell Martin & Paul LoDuca) – the recent state of the backstop position in Los Angeles becomes even more depressing.

The future in Carlos Santana gets shipped out, a declining but still solid Martin is let go in favor of veteran retreads like Rod Barajas and Dioner Navarro, and the one guy who can actually benefit the team with his bat (A.J. Ellis) will likely get dumped at the bottom of the lineup. Remember Ned Colletti, the object of the game is to score more runs than the other team.

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Heading into the 2012 campaign, the Dodgers will hand the reigns over to Ellis and his solid defense and excellent on-base skills. Though lacking in the power department, the soon-to-be 31-year-old has a career slash line of .262/.360/.330/.690 with a .314 wOBA (including a career best .346 last season). That pretty much sums his offensive skills up perfectly: decent average, doesn’t hit for power, but gets on-base at a very high level for a catcher. A.J. has appeared in just 87 games at the big league level and his career BB% is 11.5%, though it has trended upwards (10.9%/13.6%).

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It doesn’t take a rocket scientist to understand that A.J. draws walks and gets on, whereas neither Dee Gordon nor Mark Ellis do (recently, at least). So logic would dictate that the guy who gets on-base should bat higher in the lineup, particularly if you want Matt Kemp‘s “Beast Mode” to produce more than solo homers.

Oh, and Matt Treanor was signed to a guaranteed one-year deal with a club option for a second year. His wife is professional beach volleyball player/bikini wearer Misty May, so perhaps she’ll make an appearance or two at the ballpark. That’s about the only plus I can think of regarding him.