Hanley Ramirez‘s rehab is going well, but the team isn’t keen on rushing him, so he’s two weeks away.

Hanley Ramirez tested his hamstring running in the outfield, and Mattingly said the shortstop continues to make progress, although he is still probably two weeks away from playing.

As was the case the first time he came back from injury, given what the Dodgers have been running out on the left side of the infield, his return could have the biggest impact on the team to date.

—–

Scott Elbert continued his rehab assignment in High-A Rancho Cucamonga…

Dodgers reliever Scott Elbert pitched a scoreless sixth inning with the Quakes, allowing one hit and walking one. The left-hander has tossed three scoreless innings since beginning his rehab assignment on Friday. He’s working his way back from a pair of elbow operations during the winter.

…then made an appearance at Double-A Chattanooga on Saturday.

Elbert started and threw 13 pitches after already making three relief appearances with Class A Rancho Cucamonga. He allowed a single and RBI double to the first two batters he faced, then retired the next three hitters.

Elbert could be back to help the bullpen later this week, as his velocity his risen in recent appearances.

At the start of the season, he seemed like a luxury due to J.P. Howell and Paco Rodriguez, but now the bullpen could desperately use another quality arm.

—–

Zack Greinke was activated from the DL ahead of schedule and made a very good return to action.

In a corresponding move, Josh Beckett hit the 15-day DL following speculation that he was hurt and would need time to heal.

The Los Angeles Dodgers seemed to have a hard time getting the story straight after Monday’s 6-2 loss to the Washington Nationals. Josh Beckett, who is 0-5 with a 5.19 ERA, left the game after just three innings in part, manager Don Mattingly said, because he slightly strained a groin muscle covering first base on an Adam LaRoche groundout.

Beckett is also battling an assortment of minor injuries, Mattingly said. But what?

“He’s had some little stuff going on in different areas, and I think it was bothering him tonight,” Mattingly said.

Little stuff, such as?

“We had known some little stuff was going on,” Mattingly said.

I don’t know how they treat things here,” he [Beckett] said.

He also said, “I’m healthy enough to pitch,” which might be a regrettable phrase if the Dodgers, indeed, put Beckett on the 15-day disabled list Tuesday. The timing would be opportune as it appears Zack Greinke will come off the DL to pitch against Washington Wednesday night. Mattingly wouldn’t confirm that Greinke will pitch Wednesday, but said they’ve settled on a starter.

Either that’s a phantom DL or there’s a scary disconnect between player and training staff here.

—–

Ted Lilly claims he’s healthy and ready to get back to major-league action.

Dodgers left-hander Ted Lilly declared himself healthy after going five innings during a Minor League rehab start with Class A Rancho Cucamonga on Wednesday night.

Lilly allowed four runs on five hits, striking out three against three walks as the Quakes lost to the San Jose Giants, 4-3.

The veteran said he felt no discomfort from a strained right rib cage that forced him to the disabled list May 3. He was in the Dodgers’ clubhouse after their 3-1 win over the Nationals and will travel with the club to Atlanta for a three-game series that begins Friday.

Lilly said he does not expect to make another start in the Minors, though he said he hasn’t spoken to management about the next step in his rehab.

Just because he might be healthy doesn’t mean he’ll be productive, but he was activated from the DL on Monday anyway, and he will start for the team on Saturday.

—–

Scott Van Slyke had x-rays on his left leg after fouling back-to-back pitches off said leg.

X-rays were negative on the lower left leg of Dodgers outfielder Scott Van Slyke, who exited Sunday’s 5-2 loss against the Braves after he fouled consecutive pitches off his leg in a seventh-inning at-bat.

Van Slyke said there was no fracture, although it was “pretty sore” having fouled the pitches “an inch apart on the same ligament.”

He said he’ll be able to return to action immediately, as long as he can tolerate the discomfort.

“I should be good,” he said.

Last thing the team needed was the only bench bat with pop going down.

—–

Luis Cruz is apparently dealing with bone spurs in his throwing elbow now, which Chad brought up as potentially foreshadowing a phantom DL case.

—–

Mark Ellis was activated from the DL, saying his rehab was over and he’s ready to go.

—–

Corey Seager has been placed on the minor-league 7-day DL with a hamstring injury.

The 18th pick in last year’s draft, Corey Seager will take a break from his full-season debut as he rehabs a hamstring injury. He hit .267/.333/.410 with three homers in 29 games for low Class A Great Lakes, giving him a .743 OPS that is comfortably above the Midwest League average.

While Seager hasn’t been tearing it up like he did last year immediately after being drafted, he’s been better than league average and is still extremely young for pro ball.

—–

Minor-league injury news, per Matt Eddy of Baseball America.

Placed on 7-day DL: RHP Jonathan Martinez, RHP Sean White, LHP Jake Hermsen, C John Cannon, 1B Paul Hoenecke
Reinstated from DL: RHP Jon Michael Redding, C Webster Rivas, 2B Elevys Gonzalez, OF Alex Castellanos, OF Jeremy Moore, OF Devin Shines

=====

Greg Zakwin is the founder of the site Plaschke, Thy Sweater Is Argyle. Follow him on Twitter @ArgyledPlaschke.

Adrian Gonzalez and his neck strain still pose an issue for the Dodgers, as he can swing a bat without pain but can’t play the field or run without significant discomfort.

If there was an opportunity for the Dodgers to unilaterally impose the designated hitter rule upon the National League, they just might do it. After all, their first baseman Adrian Gonzalez is still bothered by a muscular strain in his neck, but it doesn’t really hinder his performance at the plate.

“We don’t know what gets him. The play where he goes to his right and gets the lead guy, that stung him. Then a swing stung him,” said manager Don Mattingly. “We thought it was a good time to get him out of there. The beat kind of goes on with Adrian. He’s still swinging the bat good.”

“That’s the one thing. It doesn’t really bother me when I hit,” Gonzalez said. “Just throwing, running for fly balls, running with my head up, that hurts, especially going back. But even moving forward with my head up it hurts. With fly balls it’s hard for me to go hard or even go comfortably. I’d say the fly balls are the worst.”

It has become a daily battle for Gonzalez of getting treatment and preparing for a game, only to have that relative calm disrupted during play.

“It’s a strain. Once I get up and start running and throwing during the game, it just seems to get worse and worse and worse.”

Fortunately, he’s in the lineup today.

However, the injury will likely continue to keep A-Gon in and out of the lineup if he tries to play through it. Scott Van Slyke could see significant time going forward, especially if something happens to re-aggravate it.

——

Zack Greinke‘s rehab start went off without a hitch and the righty is scheduled to return from his broken collarbone Wednesday at home against Washington.

Zack Greinke pitched into the fifth inning for the Class-A Rancho Cucamonga Quakes on Friday night on a minor league rehab assignment, and could be in line to pitch next for the Dodgers on Wednesday against the Nationals.

“If the doctors say he can pitch, we’re going to let him pitch. We feel like his arm is going to be ready to pitch. He has thrown two 60-pitch bullpens, he’s going to throw 75 pitches tonight,” manager Don Mattingly said before the Dodgers played the Marlins on Friday night. “As long as the doctors say that’s safe for him to pitch with, then he’ll pitch. Knowing Zack, he probably would have pitched tonight.”

I’m giving the Dodgers the benefit of the doubt that they’re not rushing Zack. The club obviously needs him, but not so much so that he should be pitching injured. No amount of need is acceptable enough to put an already injured player at further risk, and even a slight change in mechanics could create problems that this team certainly doesn’t need.

——

Scott Elbert continues to rehab and is nearing a return to The Show.

Scott Elbert, the “other” Dodgers pitcher on a rehab assignment with Class A Rancho Cucamonga, pitched a perfect seventh inning Friday night and got the win in his first game appearance since two elbow operations.

The left-handed Elbert will pitch another inning Monday and might follow that with an appearance at Triple-A Albuquerque, but he’s not far away from returning to the Dodgers’ bullpen.

“I’m pretty excited,” said Elbert, who needed only seven pitches to record two strikeouts and a groundout. “It’s a good feeling. It’s been a long time. I feel good. I don’t feel anything.”

Elbert was on a 25-pitch limit, so he went to the bullpen after his inning and threw another 18 pitches to get in his work. The Quakes, who trailed by five runs at one point, took the lead while Elbert was the pitcher of record.

“If I can do what I did tonight, I can help them out [in Los Angeles],” said Elbert. “I almost feel I’m back to my normal self completely.”

Elbert has great swing and miss stuff, and he could certainly help the big league club if healthy. Considering that the bullpen is struggling, there will likely be a spot for him somewhere, which was an iffy proposition before.

—–

Minor-league injury notes:

Placed on 7-day DL: 2B Elevys Gonzalez, OF Malcolm Holland
Reinstated from DL: C Jan Vazquez, 1B Chris Jacobs, 2B Rafael Ynoa

Chris Jacobs, the light-tower power 1B, and Rafael Ynoa, the potential utility infielder, highlight the list.

=====

Greg Zakwin is the founder of the site Plaschke Thy Sweater Is Argyle. Follow him on Twitter @ArgyledPlaschke.

Zack Greinke is ahead of schedule as he works his way back from his broken left collarbone.

For the third time in six days, Dodgers pitcher Zack Greinke threw a bullpen session on Tuesday afternoon before the Dodgers hosted the Diamondbacks at Dodger Stadium. The right-hander is ahead of schedule in his recovery from a broken collarbone.

Greinke threw just over 60 pitches on Tuesday, and like Saturday in San Francisco was clocked at 90 mph. Unlike last Thursday’s light bullpen session at Dodger Stadium, the last two have been much more strenuous, with Greinke throwing all of his pitches.

“My normal bullpen session is 20 pitches at 75 percent,” Greinke said. “This was nothing like a normal bullpen session for me.”

Now, Greinke could begin a minor league rehab assignment as soon as this weekend, provided he has no setbacks. That could put Greinke in line to return to the Dodgers at some time around the last week of May.

He’s been throwing bullpen sessions and will start a rehab assignment soon, and the Dodgers could really use that lethal one-two punch atop the rotation as soon as possible.

How soon?

Try tomorrow, in Rancho.

Zack Greinke to pitch in Class A tomorrow. Would be in line to return to #Dodgers rotation Wednesday vs. Nationals. May 10, 2013

If Greinke does indeed return on Wednesday of next week, he would have missed just under five weeks, well ahead of the original timetable given of eight weeks.

—–

Adrian Gonzalez has a strained muscle in his neck, suffered in that odd and innocuous-looking collision with a first-base umpire a few days back.

First baseman Adrian Gonzalez had an MRI on Monday that revealed a mild strain in his left trapezious muscle at the base of his neck, but he will play through the pain.

“I’m going to try to play through it and see how it feels,” Gonzalez said Monday afternoon. “It’s not getting worse, but there’s still quite a bit of pain there.”

The injury has forced him out of games early and seen him scratched entirely in others, but Gonzalez intends to play through the pain, which sounds pretty typical for an injured Dodger.

Dodgers first baseman Adrian Gonzalez left Wednesday night’s game against the Diamondbacks in the fifth inning, one inning after making a diving attempt to catch a foul ball. Gonzalez has been battling a strained muscle in his neck, and the Dodgers say he aggravated the neck strain on Wednesday.

Gonzalez is listed as day-to-day.

Honestly, just rest the guy and DL him – which they should have done originally – as there is baseball beyond 2013. Letting guys play through injury just leads to a more serious injury or compensating for the injured area and then injuring a different area.

Speaking of the consequences of playing through pain…

…A-Gon’s shoulder injury from a couple of years ago has permanently altered his ability to hit for power.

His days as that kind of power hitter are gone.

That is not a whisper from an anonymous scout. That is the word from Gonzalez himself, who says he has been unable to recover the swing that made him an elite power hitter.

“I can still hit home runs,” Gonzalez said. “That is not going to be an issue. The full power is not the same.”

“Last year, I tried to go back to the swing I had before I got hurt,” he said. “I tried it for the whole first half, with horrible results.”

We all remember them letting Matt Kemp persist, right? Now he might not ever be the same?

Great.

—–

Carl Crawford‘s hamstring was feeling tight, and he was held out of the lineup Wednesday as a precaution.

Dodgers left fielder Carl Crawford was held out of the starting lineup for the series finale against the Diamondbacks on Wednesday night with tightness in his right hamstring. Utility man Elian Herrera gets the start in left field in Crawford’s place.

“Carl felt a little bit tender, it feels like something is going on. We’re just being cautious, with the off day tomorrow,” said manager Don Mattingly. “I had planned on playing him today, but when he comes in and feels like he’s a little bit tight, it’s better than playing him and he ends up pulling it and you miss him for a long time.”

A hamstring injury for a guy whose game is predicated on his legs is never a good thing.

—–

Hanley Ramirez will be on the shelf for roughly four to six weeks with his hamstring injury.

MRI results for Hanley Ramirez confirmed a strain of his left hamstring strain, and the Dodgers are placing the official timetable for his return at four to six weeks. That puts Ramirez back with the Dodgers some time in the first two weeks of June if all goes according to plan.

Just think if he and Greinke and Gonzalez and Kemp are all on the field together at the same time, healthy. This squad could possibly win a game or two.

—–

Mark Ellis hit the 15-day DL with his quad injury and is eligible to return on May 12, as the move was a retroactive one.

It took the Dodgers about a week longer than it should have, but as expected Mark Ellis was placed on the 15-day disabled list on Monday with a strained right quad.

Chris Capuano was activated from the disabled list and took his spot on the 25-man roster.

—–

Jerry Hairston Jr. hit the DL with a strain of his left groin. Elian Herrera was recalled to take his place.

The Dodgers made it official on Tuesday, placing Jerry Hairston on the 15-day disabled list with a strained left groin.

Based on various beat reports from Monday, Hairston tried to test his groin during pregame workouts but was unable to complete them. Hairston aggravated the injury on Saturday night in San Francisco, but appeared as a pinch hitter on Sunday.

Hairston was pretty much the only guy with any amount of power on the bench.

—–

Scott Elbert is set to begin a rehab assignment and could be available in the next week to week and a half.

Reliever Scott Elbert, healed from two left elbow operations, will begin a Minor League rehab assignment Friday for Class A Rancho Cucamonga and could be back in the Dodgers’ bullpen within seven to 10 days.

Elbert threw a simulated game Saturday in extended spring training in Arizona, employing a revamped delivery designed to ease stress on his elbow after undergoing two offseason operations and a platelet-rich plasma injection during Spring Training.

Well, this is a bright spot at least.

=====

Greg Zakwin is the founder of the site Plaschke Thy Sweater Is Argyle. Follow him on Twitter @ArgyledPlaschke.

Hanley Ramirez has resumed baseball activities, including hitting off of a tee and light toss. He plans to return earlier than the timetable originally given, but the Dodgers aren’t getting ahead of themselves.

Ramirez told reporters Tuesday he would be back ‘way sooner’ than May 17, and that “everybody is going to be shocked” at how quickly he returns.

Manager Don Mattingly was similarly excited but less specific than Ramirez.

“He was in there swinging, and he looks good. Hanley’s moving forward, that’s for sure,” Mattingly said. “I’m going out on a limb and saying it’s not going to be eight weeks.”

So basically he’s declaring himself a miracle, which is fine with me considering the infield situation on the left side.

The sooner he gets back, the better.

—–

Zack Greinke underwent surgery on his broken left collarbone, and the procedure went as expected.

Dodgers right-handed pitcher Zack Greinke had successful surgery to repair a broken left collarbone on Saturday in Los Angeles, the team announced. As previously thought, Greinke is expected to miss eight weeks after the procedure.

The surgery was performed on Saturday by Dr. John Itamura and Dr. Neal ElAttrache at White Memorial Hospital in Los Angeles. The 90-minute procedure fixed the fracture of Greinke’s left clavicle, and involved the placement of a metal plate to stabilize the fracture.

The timetable for Zack’s return is eight weeks, which is about as good as the team could have hoped for.

—–

Ted Lilly agreed to make yet another minor-league rehab start.

It appears that left-handed pitcher Ted Lilly and the Dodgers have agreed to extend their inconvenient arrangement a little while longer. Lilly has agreed to make another minor league start on his rehabilitation assignment, a change from his weekend stance.

“It’s really been above me, what’s going on. They’ve been working it out,” Mattingly said. “We just give our baseball opinion, on what we felt like he needed, and they worked it out.”

Then he made it and impressed Ken Howell.

If and when the Dodgers need a replacement for the injured Chris Capuano, Ted Lilly is ready, assistant pitching coach Ken Howell said Tuesday night.

“He looked tonight like a Major League pitcher,” said Howell. “He managed the game, his pitches were crisper, he competed better. That’s what I was looking for. He pitched better than the numbers indicate.”

Looks more and more likely that he’ll have to be ready, due to a sudden lack of rotation depth.

—–

Speaking of the devil, Chris Capuano, filling in for an injured Greinke, left Tuesday’s game with a left calf strain. He’s headed for an MRI on Friday, according to Don Mattingly.

Oh, this start to the season just keeps getting better and better.

—–

The recently called-up Shawn Tolleson made one appearance before hitting the 15-day DL with a lower back strain.

Tolleson was recalled on Friday when Zack Greinke went on the disabled list, and pitched in the series opener against the Diamondbacks. Tolleson came in with the bases loaded and one out in the eighth inning with the Dodgers trailing 1-0, but he walked both hitters he faced to force in two inherited runs.

The move is retroactive to April 13, so Tolleson can be activated April 28 if he’s healthy.

As far as his recovery goes, Tolleson has been shut down from throwing for the next week, and he actually felt something before stepping onto the field, but he didn’t address the issue until after putting himself at further risk.

He thinks the travel may have affected his back, but for whatever reason he felt tightness before the his appearance on Friday.

“It was kind of tight all day, and tight when I was warming up. I wasn’t worried about it when I was pitching, I was just trying to throw strikes,” Tolleson said. “But when I came out of the game it just really tightened up on me.”

Sounds iffy as to whether or not he’ll be back after his 15 days are up.

—–

In better news, Carl Crawford has been cleared to resume throwing normally.

Dodgers outfielder Carl Crawford continues to build arm strength following offseason Tommy John Surgery, enough for Dodgers trainers to give him the green light to bypass his cutoff man and throw to the bag when the situation calls for it.

“I’m glad to hear that, actually, because I think as much as anything, he’s been throwing the ball pretty good,” manager Don Mattingly said before Tuesday’s game against the Padres. “I just don’t think he’s been feeling like he should be letting it go. So when the trainers tell him it’s OK, I think it makes you feel better as a player. You can turn it loose.”

Guys have been taking advantage of his throwing arm, but I’m not sure how much of that is due to the surgery and how much of that is just normal for him.

Either way, he’s playing well enough overall for it not to matter.

—–

Scott Elbert, on the shelf following left elbow surgery, is progressing in his rehab and responding well to plasma-rich platelet injections.

After two offseason elbow operations, Elbert experienced a setback midway through Spring Training, received a PRP injection and has rebounded steadily since. He has been throwing hard on flat ground this weekend and could be pitching off a mound in a week or two.

“I’m definitely a lot better, either from the PRP or the shoulder exercises, which also help the elbow because everything is incorporated,” said Elbert. “I wasn’t able to throw more than 75 feet in Spring Training, but I’m up to 90 feet now and my mechanics are a lot better.”

Even if he’s behind two other lefties right now, with the way the season is going, the depth would be nice to have.

—–

Steven Ames was placed on the minor-league 7-day DL.

=====

Greg Zakwin is the founder of the site Plaschke Thy Sweater Is Argyle. Follow him on Twitter @ArgyledPlaschke.

While Don Mattingly believes Matt Kemp‘s shoulder may be a mental hurdle he’ll have to get past, he and the Dodgers staff are not concerned about it affecting Kemp physically, as the injury hasn’t cropped back up after off-season surgery and there have been no lingering side effects.

“He may be thinking about [the shoulder], but it doesn’t seem like it any more,” manager Don Mattingly said before Tuesday’s game against the Giants. “I think when we assessed Spring Training, we felt like that was one of the hurdles that we crossed that was successful.”

The injury will likely temper Kemp’s power early in the season, but hopefully his shoulder responds better than Adrian Gonzalez‘s did after a similar injury during his time in Boston.

It’s a situation worth monitoring, but it certainly doesn’t seem worthy of panic.

—–

Chad Billingsley had a successful rehab start in Rancho and is in line to start in the bigs on Wednesday.

Chad Billingsley allowed four runs in four innings in his minor league rehab assignment with Class-A Rancho Cucamonga on Thursday night, but more importantly the Dodgers right-hander is healthy and his curve ball was unhindered by the contusion on his right index finger. Billingsley’s next start will likely by Wednesday in San Diego against the Padres.

“My curve was a lot sharper. In the last outing I was throwing 50-foot curve balls. Tonight they were more on top of the plate, I got a double play ball out of one. It was definitely worth it coming back here,” Billingsley said. “I’m ready for the next outing.”

Bills’ finger was fine and he was able to throw his curve.

“It went well. I accomplished everything I needed to to get ready for my next start,” Billingsley said on Friday at Dodger Stadium. “I’ve got no issues with the finger. I’m anxious to get back out there, compete and win some ballgames.”

It’s something to watch for during his start this week, for sure.

—–

Ted Lilly went six innings in a minor-league rehab start.

Lilly is expected to make at least one more rehab start before he’s ready to start in the Major Leagues, and then the Dodgers must find room for him. Manager Don Mattingly earlier said Lilly is not a likely candidate for the bullpen, where the Dodgers already have stashed starting pitchers Chris Capuano and Aaron Harang.

Not shockingly, Lilly allowed a few dingers.

The odds are still good that Lilly will be dealt or released when he’s healthy enough to return, as the Dodgers already have three superior lefties in the pen and could get Scott Elbert back at some point around the middle of this season.

—–

The Dodgers placed minor leaguers Juan Abreu, Juan Noriega, Matt Palmer, Mario Santiago, Steve Cilladi, Jan Vazquez, Pedro Guerrero, Casio Grider, Ozzie Martinez, Brian Cavazos-Galvez, Jeremy Moore, Pat Stover, and Joey Winker on the 7-day DL.

=====

Greg Zakwin is the founder of the site Plaschke Thy Sweater Is Argyle. Follow him on Twitter @ArgyledPlaschke.

Chad Billingsley turned in an impressive minor-league outing on Friday in which he was able to throw his curve sans any finger or elbow issues.

Manager Don Mattingly said Billingsley remains in his starting rotation, but it will just be a matter of when. The Dodgers don’t technically need a fifth starter until Apr. 13, their 11th game of the season. But Billingsley could be mixed into the rotation earlier, perhaps as early as Apr. 7.

“There are a couple of issues with Bills. Making sure he’s ready is one. The nail is one. But the biggest issue is any kind of small changes messing with that elbow,” Mattingly said. “That’s our biggest concern with him, making sure we’re not putting him in a bad spot.”

The nail was never a serious issue, but it’s encouraging to see the Dodgers not pushing him to tough it out and risk further injury.

He’s slated to start a minor-league game this Thursday and is tentatively scheduled to be back in the bigs on April 10.

—–

Scott Elbert received plasma rich platelet injections in his ailing left elbow as he attempts to return from an elbow injury.

“Scott hasn’t thrown in a while. He was having some tenderness so he was shut down for quite a bit. His timetable has definitely been changing,” said manager Don Mattingly. “It was a little bit like Carl (Crawford), just starting that program up but he wasn’t quite ready yet. So we’ll wait, PRP, and start back up.”

There’s no timetable set for his return, and considering that Elbert has had an unhealthy off-season, plus the fact that the Dodgers are already three lefty relievers deep in the pen, there’s no reason to rush him until he’s 100%.

—–

Andre Ethier left last Tuesday’s Spring Training game with soreness in his right hamstring.

“[Dodgers trainer Sue Falsone] warned me before the game and [Ethier] didn’t say it after the hit, but I didn’t want to see it after that. He’d had enough,” Mattingly said. “It’s been a long camp.”

He made the Opening Day roster and played in yesterday’s game, and he looked fine, but it’s notable anyway. Doesn’t seem like much, but hamstring injuries can be tricky (See: Matt Kemp, 2012).

—–

Ted Lilly was placed on the 15-day DL retroactive to March 28 as he continues his recovery from off-season labrum surgery on his pitching shoulder.

While I’m sure a part of that is true, the reality is that he was just atrocious looking in Spring Training.

=====

Greg Zakwin is the founder of the site Plaschke Thy Sweater Is Argyle. Follow him on Twitter @ArgyledPlaschke.

The Dodgers officially finalized their Opening Day 25-man roster.

The 25-man roster, as broken down by position:

Pitchers (12):
Josh Beckett
Ronald Belisario
Chris Capuano (L)
Zack Greinke
Matt Guerrier
Aaron Harang
J.P. Howell (L)
Kenley Jansen
Clayton Kershaw (L)
Brandon League
Paco Rodriguez (L)
Hyun-Jin Ryu (L)

Catchers (2):
A.J. Ellis
Tim Federowicz

Infielders (6):
Luis Cruz
Mark Ellis
Adrian Gonzalez (L)
Nick Punto (S)
Justin Sellers
Juan Uribe

Outfielders (3):
Carl Crawford (L)
Andre Ethier (L)
Matt Kemp

Infielder/Outfielder (2):
Jerry Hairston, Jr.
Skip Schumaker (L)

The team placed Chad Billingsley, Scott Elbert, Hanley Ramirez, and Ted Lilly officially on the disabled list.

—–

Prior to the disabled list moves, the team cut eight players to essentially set the Opening Day roster. Chad has more details on that here.

—–

The team released right-handed pitchers Florencio Bustillos, Brock Mansion, and Joe Robinson, along with left-handed pitchers Mike Antonini, Fabio Castro, and Alfredo Unzue.

Outfielder Nick Akins was also released, and he’s the biggest name of the seven because he once generated buzz by putting up ridiculous numbers in Rookie-ball. Unfortunately, none of that carried over to full-season ball, leading to this step in his career.

=====

Greg Zakwin is the founder of the site Plaschke Thy Sweater Is Argyle. Follow him on Twitter @ArgyledPlaschke.

The Dodgers announced the cuts of eight players yesterday, moves that essentially set the Opening Day roster for the team.

The club reassigned right-handers Kevin Gregg and Peter Moylan, utility man Alfredo Amezaga and catcher Matt Wallach to Minor League camp.

In addition, the Dodgers optioned outfielder Alex Castellanos, right-hander Stephen Fife, utility man Elian Herrera and right-hander Josh Wall to Minor League camp.

Welp, this turned out completely differently than what I had assumed was going to happen, with some moves for the better and some for the worse. However, the primary reason that happened was because the Dodgers basically pushed back the tough decisions for a week or two.

—–

Lineup

C – A.J. Ellis
1B – Adrian Gonzalez
2B – Mark Ellis
3B – Luis Cruz
SS – Justin Sellers
LF – Carl Crawford
CF – Matt Kemp
RF – Andre Ethier

Bench

B – Tim Federowicz
B – Nick Punto
B – Juan Uribe
B – Jerry Hairston Jr.
B – Skip Schumaker

DL – Hanley Ramirez

Rotation

1 – Clayton Kershaw
2 – Zack Greinke
3 – Josh Beckett
4 – Hyun Jin Ryu

Bullpen

CL – Brandon League
ST – Kenley Jansen
RP – Ronald Belisario
RP – J.P. Howell
RP – Paco Rodriguez
RP – Matt Guerrier
RP – Chris Capuano
RP – Aaron Harang

DL – Chad Billingsley
DL – Scott Elbert
DL – Ted Lilly

—–

So that’s the Opening Day roster barring a sudden injury or trade.

I still don’t understand why Justin Sellers needs to be the starter when a platoon at third would work just fine. Regardless, nothing we can do about it now except hope that Sellers hits a lot of balls on the ground and those balls find holes over the next couple of months.

Pleasantly surprised though that Paco Rodriguez makes the staff over Kevin Gregg and friends, as he’s probably the fourth-best reliever on this team right now.

As I alluded to earlier though, the bad part is that this is temporary. Scott Elbert and Hanley Ramirez are out months, but Chad Billingsley and Ted Lilly can come off the DL soon because their stints are retroactive, so moves will need to be made similar to what I speculated earlier.

Basically, trades needs to happen, and soon. I struggle to see a way they make carrying seven or eight starters work long-term without damaging the potential of the bullpen, because they’d have to make moves like sending Paco down because he has options.

So all in all, while the Opening Day roster is set, what the team has really done is just push the tough decisions back, so it’s now in a week or two that we’ll see what the team truly plans on doing for the rest of the season.

After previously reporting forearm tightness to the Dodgers, it’s been relayed that Zack Greinke is now dealing with elbow discomfort, which will force him to miss his latest Spring Training outing.

“Doctors have ruled out serious injuries such as ligament damage,” wrote Gurnick, who called the move precautionary. “Greinke has told the club he’s dealt with similar elbow issues in the past that never kept him from missing a start.”

Greinke skipped a bullpen session on Mar. 3 with elbow discomfort, something manager Don Mattingly referred to later in the week as “the little stuff with the elbow the other day.”

Missing a start is nothing, and the news about no serious damage is fantastic, but it’s a bit concerning that Greinke has dealt with two arm issues already, and the season hasn’t even begun yet.

Worse yet is news that he’s now on his way to have his arm checked out by Dr. Neal ElAttrache in Los Angeles, who is the Dodger equivalent of Dr. James Andrews.

#Dodgers sending Greinke to LA today so Dr Neal ElAttrache can examine sore elbow.

— Bill Shaikin (@BillShaikin) March 11, 2013

The team continues to downplay the severity of the situation, but we have to wonder if they aren’t revealing the extent of their concern.

—–

Carl Crawford is back working out after being shut down for seven days due to elbow irritation.

The Dodgers will take it slow with Crawford now, limiting him to one activity at a time. He will begin with hitting off a tee or via light toss in the batting cage on Thursday.

“He’s doing good, but he’ll be monitored, more on a rehab program,” manager Don Mattingly said. “If we don’t have trouble in one area, then we can keep moving to the next area. If something flares up, we want to know what’s causing it.”

That next area will be throwing for Crawford, which will likely take the longest of his skills to return to normal. But there is still no timetable for when Crawford will be able to play in a spring game, even as designated hitter.

Crawford still believes he’ll not only be available for Opening Day, but will be starting.

The calendar says it’s now unlikely for Carl Crawford to be ready for Opening Day, but he disagrees.

“I haven’t accepted that at all,” Crawford said on Thursday after ending a week-long shutdown by hitting off a tee. “I don’t know who is putting that stuff out there. Even with a slower approach, there’s still a chance I’ll be ready.”

Still don’t understand why there’s this grand incentive for him to rush back in his mind. Not like it’s the start of the playoffs or something.

—–

The Dodgers are pleased with Chad Billingsley‘s progress.

“If you didn’t know anything, does he look any different to you than he looked any other time?” manager Don Mattingly said he asked pitching coach Rick Honeycutt. “And the answer is no. It’s really good news for us, the way he’s bouncing back and the way his arm is.”

“I’m feeling good, throwing hard, throwing everything,” Billingsley said. “They monitor everything, especially with me. In my whole rehab process that I went through last year, I had velocities I had to hit. The ball feels good coming out of my hand, that’s all that matters.”

Also of note is that Bills is dealing with a sore groin muscle.

Meanwhile, Billingsley is dealing with a sore right groin muscle, an injury he’s had in previous springs.

Not a concern for now, but injuries to the lower half can put additional stress on the arm.

—–

Javy Guerra is dealing with a minor groin strain but has been pitching through it.

Guerra downplayed the injury, calling it “something minor” that cropped up Sunday and led to a mechanical flaw. He said a “simple adjustment” made while throwing in the bullpen after his outing brought pitches that sailed high during the game back into the strike zone.

Don’t let him pitch through it, team with a reputation for playing guys who are injured which then subsequently exacerbates the injury and ends up making it worse.

The fact that he’s changing his pitching mechanics to compensate for it says it all, really.

—–

Shawn Tolleson, who injured his knee recently, has been cleared to return to action.

“I just felt something move in my knee and felt a pain, so it kind of spooked me. I didn’t want to test it or throw another pitch or anything. I came out of the game and they checked it out,” Tolleson said. “Everything checked out good and clean. Today there is no swelling, no soreness, no nothing.”

Tolleson participated in workouts on Wednesday, but only did light tossing, and no pitchers fielding practice.

Tolleson wasn’t able to duplicate the pain he had felt…

Shawn Tolleson, who left Tuesday’s game after experiencing a twinge in his left knee, tested it in a shortened bullpen session and said he couldn’t duplicate the pain. He’s been cleared to pitch an inning Friday.

…so everything seems good to go.

—–

Scott Elbert has begun throwing following two off-season elbow surgeries.

—–

Chris Withrow, out with lower back pain all of Spring Training, has begun a throwing program.

—–

Non-roster invitee Matt Palmer suffered ligament damage in his knee and will miss 6-8 weeks after surgery.

“We hadn’t heard anything about anything, but Sue (Falsone, team trainer) said this morning said he mentioned there was some swelling. It sounded like there were signs that he didn’t look at as signs at the time,” Mattingly said. “The fact that this thing just went while walking, it was going to go anyway, in my mind.”

Palmer was an extreme long-shot to make the team anyway, but it sucks to see him go out like that.

=====

Greg Zakwin is the founder of the site Plaschke Thy Sweater Is Argyle. Follow him on Twitter @ArgyledPlaschke.

Paco Rodriguez, Alfredo Amezaga, and Peter Moylan, three Dodgers with shots at making the Opening Day roster, have withdrawn from the World Baseball Classic to focus on making the club.

With Scott Elbert rehabbing, Paco in particular is competing for the spot of left-handed reliever, though J.P. Howell would appear to be the front-runner there. Moylan is in the running for the bullpen as well, no matter how deep it is, simply due to the fact that he’s a veteran (see: Jamey Wright). Amezaga would appear to be a long-shot to make the outfield reserves on a team with such a high payroll, but the Dodgers don’t actually have a lot of options there, especially those who can play center field. Barring a trade, it basically boils down to him, Tony Gwynn Jr., Elian Herrera, and Jeremy Moore. In other words, hopefully there’s a trade.

Paco was slated to compete for Spain, Amezaga for Mexico, and Moylan for Australia, but at the risk of missing most of Spring Training, all three Dodgers on the roster bubble decided against participating. That leaves five Dodgers who are still in the WBC in Hanley Ramirez (Dominican Republic), Adrian Gonzalez (Mexico), Luis Cruz (Mexico), Nick Punto (Italy), and Ronald Belisario (Venezuela), none of whom figure to be in danger of losing spots.

The Dodgers begin their 2013 Spring Training with a ton of injury concerns, and now that the whole team has reported, it’s time for an update on player statuses.

No better way to start this off than with Chad Billingsley, who might be the biggest question mark of all even if the depth acquired has mitigated the consequences if he does falter. Coaches say he looks normal, trainers have him on his normal schedule, and he says he feels normal.

“I feel normal,” said Billingsley, who chose platelet-rich plasma injections over Tommy John surgery, as Takashi Saito did successfully five years ago. “There wasn’t a time in the offseason when I felt like I didn’t know if it would hold up,” Billingsley said. “I know some people think it’s an issue, but I don’t. I came to Spring Training not worried about it.”

“They pushed me, basically gave me a chance to blow it out, figuring if it was going to fail, it would be better to know then,” said Billingsley. “In the simulated game, I felt awesome. I’m really excited.”

Billingsley is on a regular schedule and he has no restrictions. “There hasn’t been any mention in any of the medical reports or anything else. His name’s not on a list, it’s not on anything. He’s just like one of the guys getting ready. We’re really getting to the point where we’re just assuming he’s going to be ready, and he’s going to be fine,” Mattingly said.

Difficult not to be encouraged, but we’ve heard this song and dance before with a lot of injuries, and it’s hard to argue against the previous science of trying to rehab partially torn elbow ligaments.

Remember, not if, but when.

—–

Carl Crawford is another gigantic question mark for 2013, and he doesn’t seem to be coming along quite as quickly as he planned.

Carl Crawford, though, is not as far along in his recovery from August Tommy John surgery on his left (throwing) elbow. He’s throwing up to 90 feet, hitting off a tee and hopes to graduate in the next few days to live pitching, which Kemp did weeks ago.

Crawford said he’s “confident” he’ll be ready by Opening Day, depending on what the Dodgers “want to see.”

“I think I can hit the cutoff man, but I don’t know if that’s where they want me to come back,” he said. “I think I’m an everyday guy, but I understand the thought of easing me back in.”

Crawford said he has no pain in his elbow, “just typical muscle fatigue,” and that his arthritic left wrist hasn’t given him trouble, but “it’s something to stay on top of throughout the season.”

Depending on what the Dodgers want to see? They want to see a healthy outfielder, not a guy who is 75% and lobbing the ball in to the cutoff man. He has a noodle arm as it is, after all.

On the positive side of things, Don Mattingly seems encouraged by his progress.

Mattingly was very pleased with Carl Crawford, who participated in batting practice today. ” Carl was good, I was really surprised.” “With Carl being out on the field for the first time, he’d been swinging,” but today was the first time he was out on the field in a while.

All three outfielders spent time hurt last year, so it seems weird they have three backups for the rotation, but don’t even have a platoon partner for Andre Ethier yet.

—–

Scott Elbert sounds encouraged even though he’s coming off elbow surgery that necessitated the signing of lefty relievers to ensure that the team isn’t just relying on Paco Rodriguez.

“They didn’t give me a time frame, but it looks like May,” said Elbert, whose second surgery led to the signing of free-agent reliever J.P. Howell for $2.85 million.

On Sept. 19, Elbert underwent a first procedure to remove scar tissue in the back of the elbow. But after beginning a throwing program, he developed pain in a different area that led to a Jan. 23 arthroscopic procedure involving “a new area of cartilage damage [that] was discovered and debrided” by Dr. Neal ElAttrache, according to Elbert.

“It feels a lot better now,” Elbert said of the elbow. “After the first surgery, I tried throwing for two weeks but had to shut it down. It never calmed down; it just hurt.”

Elbow surgery isn’t as significant a deal anymore, but when they start piling up, there has to be some concern there for the future a la Hong Chih Kuo.

—–

Kenley Jansen had a minor issue with an ingrown toenail, which doesn’t seem to be anything to worry about. Hell, I was almost glad the issue was that and not something related to his heart.

—–

In more worrisome news, Chris Withrow needs an MRI on his ailing back, the same problem that has plagued him in the minors.

It’s becoming a chronic issue, and while he’s converted to a relief role in an attempt to reign in his stuff, this injury might be a bigger obstacle to his progress than his command at this point.

The 2013 projection for the Dodgers from Dan Szymborski‘s ZiPS system was released last week, and given that it’s probably my favorite forecasting tool, it’s worth a look to see how the team fared.

Forecasting is not a complete science, obviously, and I’ll address some of the potential pitfalls as we go along, but it’s better to use objective tools like these than the hopes/dreams of fans or the bitterness/wishes of haters.

To start us off, how does the team fare, generally speaking? A solid playoff contender, for sure, but a super team? Doesn’t seem likely.

—–

The Field Players

Despite all the hype over the recent acquisitions, the key cogs in this machine are still Clayton Kershaw and Matt Kemp. It’s a promising sign then, that Kemp projects at a 144 OPS+ and the system has confidence in him continuing to put up offensive numbers in the ~.900 OPS range. His defense in center still lags below average, but his bat more than makes up for it. His playing time projection has dropped due to his injury woes last season, and quite frankly, it’s hard to fault it for that. Regardless, he still figures to be the most valuable field player on the team.

Adrian Gonzalez is slated to be another bright spot, as ZiPS pegs him to bounceback a bit, though not as much as some want, clocking in at an ~.830 OPS/128 OPS+. That would still be his lowest OPS+ since 2008 (besides 2012, of course), but it’s a marked improvement considering his age and negatively trending skills. A-Gon compensates for that lagging bat a bit by putting up plus defense almost worth a win by itself. Hanley Ramirez factors in as yet another bounceback candidate, projecting at a 115 OPS+, which is an upgrade over last year’s 106 and is closer to his pre-2011 production. Defensively, even his horribad -8 run defensive rating is optimistic to me, as he was truly terrible with the glove last year. Given that I already wanted to barf seeing him trying to turn a double play in 2012, I wouldn’t be surprised at all to see him put up horrid defensive numbers after basically not playing the position all of spring.

Unfortunately, that’s where a lot of the offensive optimism ends. Luis Cruz checks in at 84 OPS+ (106 last year), which will anger many fans, but is completely reasonable given the track record. He remains valuable through plus defense, though given the sample size, there’s reason to be skeptical there as well. A.J. Ellis at 96 OPS+ (118) is another depressing but completely logical projection, as evidenced by everybody’s surprise in 2012 at his potent bat. Andre Ethier at 112 OPS+ (123) is hard to figure for me, because he has been consistently putting up ~120 OPS+ seasons even if it has come down from the ~130 OPS+ range two years ago. I suppose the projection system thinks he’ll get old in a hurry … or maybe it just thinks he’ll face an inordinately high amount of lefties. Mark Ellis at 81 OPS+ (93) shouldn’t be much of a surprise considering he’s 36 and put up an 80 OPS+ at Coors Field in 2011.

The last guy of the starters is Carl Crawford, who is the enigma of the 2013 season. He checks in at 104, which is notable because it’s basically his career OPS+ and it’s about what he did in limited time in 2012 over in Boston. That’s of particular note for me, because what he did in Boston in 2012 can be attributed to a mechanical fix that I pointed out in an article for Baseball Prospectus. Understandably, his playing time checks in low, but if he can produce like he did in 2012 but over a whole season, the Dodgers will be much better for it.

Overall, after fixing the playing time of A.J., adjusting Ethier’s offense up a bit, and adjusting Hanley’s defense down a bit, the starting lineup totaled about 22 WAR.

—–

The Bench & The Prospects

Assuming a bench of Tim Federowicz, Scott Van Slyke or Alex Castellanos, Jerry Hairston Jr., Nick Punto, and Skip Schumaker, we’re looking at around 3 WAR here after playing time is adjusted back to realistic bench levels. I’m guessing Alfredo Amezaga or Tony Gwynn Jr. work their way in somehow, but a five-man bench seems likely initially if the Dodgers can’t deal multiple pitchers before the season starts. Neither player would affect the WAR projection much though.

Honestly? I have to hope the Dodgers do something to improve the bench, because the current configuration looks rather mediocre, and the other options are keeping Juan Uribe and/or Elian Herrera. Yuck.

The good news is that Joc Pederson, T-Fed, SVS, and Castle are projected to be solid at the MLB level, though it sees Dee Gordon basically languishing behind.

—–

The Rotation

Clayton Kershaw is simply a beast, and he figures to check in with a 75 FIP-. This might seem high considering his 2011 and 2012 ERA- figures of 63 and 67, respectively, but when you consider that Felix Hernandez clocks in at 78 FIP- for 2013, you get the picture.

What might surprise is how close new acquisition Zack Greinke comes in behind him, as he figures to put up an FIP- of 81. Granted, he has always projected favorably, as his career FIP- is 80, while his career ERA- is 88, but even adjusting slightly for that, there’s a definite case there for the best 1-2 punch in the majors.

Unfortunately, this is where it gets murky, as Chad Billingsley has the stuff to be the #3, but if I were a betting man, I would bet his elbow implodes before July. He projects at 92 FIP-, which would put him around last year’s performance, which was his arguably his best season since 2008. However, given the nature of his injury and its history in the league, you can basically never rely on him to stay healthy again until he has Tommy John surgery.

Next in the pecking order are Josh Beckett, who comes in below-average at 103, and foreign import Hyun Jin Ryu, who comes in well below-average at 116. As mentioned before, the scouting reports for Beckett match this projection, as he’s no longer a front-line starter due to his decrease in velocity. However, if he can manage to learn to pitch a bit more, he still has the curve to perhaps slot in as a #3 more than a #4. Ryu is a case where I would take any projection with a mound of salt, because there’s hardly anything to base objective projections on. Personally, I don’t think Ryu has the stuff to be a #2, nor do I think he’ll be a #3 on a team with a $250 million payroll, but he should slot in comfortably in the back-end of the rotation for years. I would project something slightly below-average for 2013 and then hope for better.

The rotation is a strong point because it has both arguably the best 1-2 punch in the majors and depth, with Chris Capuano (108 FIP-) and Aaron Harang (114 FIP) presumably traded for upgrades (or maybe kept somehow?), and it checks in at about 17 WAR.

—–

The Bullpen & The Prospects

As of right now, I’m assuming a bullpen of Brandon League, Kenley Jansen, Ronald Belisario, Javy Guerra, Matt Guerrier, J.P. Howell, and Ted Lilly.

Jansen is the best of the bunch (63 FIP-) and League projects a distant second (92 FIP-), but Belisario has the most upside in these projections (101 FIP-). After that, Guerra, Guerrier, and Howell are all around replacement level. Lilly projects as a league-average pitcher, assuming he’s healthy, which would be a boon to a team that has a ticking time bomb in the rotation.

As far as prospects go, ZiPS thinks Chris Reed could be a replacement-level fill-in right now, but Zach Lee, Matt Magill, and Garrett Gould need more seasoning. And for all of you who have Stephen Fife wet dreams (yes, you’re out there), he projects at a 4.91 FIP, so keep it in your pants.

Speaking of replacement level, that especially applies to the Dodgers bullpen because of Shawn Tolleson, Scott Elbert, Steven Ames, and Paco Rodriguez, so the 4 WAR projection for this pen figures to be solid.

—–

Team Projection

A replacement-level team figures to win 43 games, and the team with the lowest amount of wins to get into the playoffs last year was the Cardinals at 88 wins, so 42 WAR puts you in the contender range and 45 WAR makes you viable, while 50 WAR will generally make a team a safe bet to be in the postseason. The Dodgers total 46 WAR, which puts them well within the playoff hunt: good but not great.

The Dodgers basically project neck-and-neck with the rival Giants, while the D-Backs lag behind a bit by maybe a half dozen wins or so, but they’re well within striking distance as well.

So make no mistake, the Dodgers recent spending habits did not make them an elite team, as the money simply duct-taped over both a flawed team and farm system depleted by Frank McCourt‘s ownership and Ned Colletti‘s questionable decisions. But that’s not to denigrate the job the new owners have done, as they turned the franchise into a legitimate playoff contender seemingly overnight, which is still saying a lot about what money can do.

Granted, “we gave you a team that has the chance to make the playoffs” is not what fans want to hear, but it’s an acceptable scenario as they lay the foundation to rebuild the franchise the correct way in their own minds. The 2013 projections might not reflect world-beaters like most seem to expect, but it’s a projection based on historical trends rather than hopes and dreams.

The 2013 Dodgers are indeed a team with a lot of upside, and if everything breaks correctly, they could very well end up being one of the best teams in the league, but they also carry a ton of inherent age and injury risk, which is why the projections come in understandably conservative. Either way, if nothing else, this team figures to be never boring.

As fans of the Dodgers, we’re always analyzing which pitchers have the best and worst pitches, but we normally base that on nothing but our own feelings at the moment, so I decided to take a more objective look at things.

For a pitch to qualify for these rankings, I used a 200-pitch minimum for starters and a 50-pitch minimum for relievers. The metric used to measure pitch effectiveness is True Average (TAv), which is basically like wOBA. League average performance is set at .260, and the metric doesn’t include baserunning.

Additionally, to prevent the post from being solely numbers-based, and one that would have been mind-numbingly boring, I decided to provide visual evidence as well.

—–

Worst Overall Pitches

Shawn Tolleson – Sinker – .395 TAv

Mike MacDougal – Sinker – .342 TAv

Matt Guerrier – Fastball – .320 TAv

Relief pitchers have smaller sample sizes, so they are prone to fluctuations, but they have the advantage of appearing in short bursts and limiting their arsenal to only their best pitches.

So … uh … this is TERRIBLE.

.395 is like 40 points higher than Mike Trout in 2012 for fucks sake.

H-h-how?

—–

Worst Individual Pitches

Fastball

Matt Guerrier – .320 TAv

*Visual Is Above*

Shawn Tolleson – .273
Javy Guerra – .256
Scott Elbert – .237
Ronald Belisario – .082

Ugh.

Sinker

Shawn Tolleson – .395 TAv

*Visual Is Above*

Mike MacDougal – .342
Brandon League – .280
Todd Coffey – .263
Randy Choate – .262
Jamey Wright – .258
Ronald Belisario – .225

No … just no.

Cutter

Jamey Wright – .258 TAv

Scott Elbert – .242
Javy Guerra – .208
Kenley Jansen – .187
Matt Guerrier – .139

Curve

Javy Guerra – .271 TAv

Jamey Wright – .171

Finishing last out of two isn’t bad, but giving up a .271 on a curve as a reliever is.

Slider

Kenley Jansen – .236 TAv

Jamey Wright – .215
Todd Coffey – .214
Shawn Tolleson – .206
Brandon League – .147
Ronald Belisario – .121
Randy Choate – .058

I actually think he could benefit from throwing this more often because it’s a quality pitch. Not hanging it is a different story, but how is he supposed to learn command of it if he never uses it?

Change

None Qualified

Splitter

Brandon League – .096 TAv

He’s the only reliever that qualified for this pitch, so I guess he’s technically the best and the worst, but considering his split was the second-most effective pitch by a reliever for the team in 2012, I’m pretty sure he gets a pass.

As fans of the Dodgers, we’re always analyzing which pitchers have the best and worst pitches, but we normally base that on nothing but our own feelings at the moment, so I decided to take a more objective look at things.

For a pitch to qualify for these rankings, I used a 200-pitch minimum for starters and a 50-pitch minimum for relievers. The metric used to measure pitch effectiveness is True Average (TAv), which is basically like wOBA. League average performance is set at .260, and the metric doesn’t include baserunning.

Additionally, to prevent the post from being solely numbers-based, and one that would have been mind-numbingly boring, I decided to provide visual evidence as well.

—–

Best Overall Pitches

Randy Choate – Slider – .058 TAv

Brandon League – Splitter – .096 TAv

Ronald Belisario – Slider – .121 TAv

The first two pitches should come as no surprise given that they are basically what both pitchers make their money off of. However, Ronald Belisario’s slider? Really? Yeah, but I’m guessing that’s almost entirely based on how surprised hitters are to see it when they’re expecting nothing but 95-97 mph sinking fastballs.

—–

Best Individual Pitches

Fastball

Scott Elbert – .237 TAv

Javy Guerra – .256
Shawn Tolleson – .273
Matt Guerrier – .320

Ronald Belisario’s .082 was disqualified because I’m about 99% sure these pitches were simply identified incorrectly. In any case, I’m surprised by how the Dodgers have zero fireballing fastball relievers.

Sinker

Ronald Belisario – .225 TAv

Jamey Wright – .258
Randy Choate – .262
Todd Coffey – .263
Brandon League – .280
Mike MacDougal – .342
Shawn Tolleson – .395

To have everybody know the pitch is coming and to still beat hitters with it is amazing.

Cutter

Kenley Jansen – .187 TAv

Javy Guerra – .208
Scott Elbert – .242
Jamey Wright – .258

Matt Guerrier actually had a .139, but he barely met the minimum and Kenley Jansen’s cutter is his main pitch and was still below .200, which is silly. Also, I’m biased and wanted to show that GIF. Deal with it.

Curve

Jamey Wright – .171 TAv

Javy Guerra – .271

Slider

Randy Choate – .058 TAv

*Visual Is Above*

Ronald Belisario – .121
Brandon League – .147
Shawn Tolleson – .206
Todd Coffey – .214
Jamey Wright – .215
Kenley Jansen – .236

Unfair to lefties, really.

Change

None Qualified

Splitter

Brandon League – .096 TAv

*Visual Is Above*

When he has got his command working, it’s a filthy, filthy pitch.

Ken Gurnick reports that Matt Kemp is ahead of schedule in his recovery from offseason shoulder surgery, and that Kemp expects to be ready for Opening Day. Kemp has reported still feeling soreness in the shoulder he injured after crashing into the outfield wall in Colorado on consecutive days:

“That’s my goal,” said Kemp. “I’m hitting off the tee, no soft toss yet. I have my good days and bad days. It’s still a little sore. But being ready for the season is all that matters.”

This is the downside to players wanting to play through severe injuries and teams allowing them to. Last year’s playoff push was not more important than the next decade or so of Kemp’s career, and the Dodgers letting him play was a terrible idea even at the time.

“I couldn’t shut it down,” Kemp said. “They told me to shut it down and think about surgery — or at least rest. But I just couldn’t do it. I had to continue and play. That’s what I do. I can’t sit and watch.”

Players obviously always want to be on the field, but that’s why coaches and trainers exist.

—–

Scott Elbert underwent arthroscopic surgery on his left elbow Wednesday, the second such surgery he’s had on the elbow this offseason. Elbert will be able to resume throwing in six weeks, and his availability for Opening Day is not a certainty.

This figures to open the door for J.P. Howell, Paco Rodriguez, and Ted Lilly, if they weren’t already ahead to begin with.

=====

Greg Zakwin is the founder of the site Plaschke Thy Sweater Is Argyle. Follow him on Twitter @ArgyledPlaschke.

The Dodgers have agreed to sign left-handed reliever J.P. Howell on a one-year deal worth $2.75 million, with performance bonuses that can take that salary higher, according to Dylan Hernandez and Buster Olney.

If finalized, J.P. Howell’s deal with the #Dodgers would be worth $2.75 million: lat.ms/1398TrN

— Dylan Hernandez (@dylanohernandez) January 5, 2013

J.P. Howell agreed to terms with the Dodgers. A left-hander for a very deep bullpen.

— Buster Olney (@Buster_ESPN) January 5, 2013

Howell gets a one-year deal with LAD, for just under $3 million in base salary, and performance bonuses.

— Buster Olney (@Buster_ESPN) January 5, 2013

After missing the end of 2009, all of 2010, and parts of 2011 with a shoulder injury, Howell remains a bit of a mystery, but one with upside. From 2008 to 2009, he was a ~2 WAR reliever annually, which is rather remarkable for a reliever who was generally not a closer. He always struggled with control a bit, but his success was powered by his ability to miss bats.

That segues perfectly into my concerns about his performance going forward. Since he has returned from injury, his strikeout rate his plummeted, which is understandable in 2011, but there wasn’t any significant improvement in that area in 2012. Thus, while his ERA improved significantly from 2011 to 2012 (6.16/3.04), his FIP didn’t (5.41/4.78), resulting in a replacement-level player WAR (-0.75/0.25).

His fit with the Dodgers doesn’t make a ton of sense on the surface, as the team does have Scott Elbert, Paco Rodriguez, and probably Ted Lilly, but the Dodgers can afford to spend money on a veteran and use one of Elbert/Paco as depth in the minors. As such, there’s little risk here, and some upside if he ever gets back to his previous healthy state. However, projection-wise, it’s hard to imagine him providing a significant upgrade over the demoted options, so this is a move that’s made more for depth than anything else.

Kenley Jansen

Kenley Jansen entered 2012 as the set-up man with elite stuff, freed up to face the opponents’ best hitters should they be due up before the ninth inning. It was the perfect scenario, considering the closer role is a vastly overrated entity. Though Jansen was slotted correctly, he quickly found himself as the closer following some early struggles in that role by Javy Guerra.

Jansen closed 2012 with his third-straight dominant season, posting a 2.40 FIP and 1.81 SIERA while whiffing a magnificent 13.71/9 IP. He appeared in a career-high 65 games and 65 innings, and though he allowed a few more long-balls (six homers after three in 2011 and none in 2010), he more importantly cut down impressively on his free passes for a third consecutive campaign (5.00/4.36/3.05 per nine innings). Also of note is his continued ability to induce infield popups, which has always been excellent (16% in 2010 & 10.9% in 2011), as he reached a new career best in 2012 (19.4 IFFB%).

To put it another way, as infield popups are essentially as effective as strikeouts, Jansen “whiffed” roughly 60% of the hitters he faced in 2012. That is insane, obviously.

Though all has been well from a between-the-lines perspective, Jansen has seen his short career put in jeopardy multiple times due to a heart ailment that has afflicted him for parts of the 2011 regular season, Spring Training of 2012, and most recently the 2012 regular season. While Jansen has thankfully been able to return from all three bouts, the irregular heartbeat has been recurring, which is troublesome for his health and career prospects.

Jansen and the Dodgers have taken action though, as Kenley recently underwent heart surgery to correct the problem. All seems well thus far, as no complications from the surgery have been revealed, and all reports indicate he’ll be ready to go for 2013. He’ll recuperate for at least three months prior to resuming baseball activities, and with his electric stuff, fantastic ability to get hitters to swing-and-miss, and three straight seasons of improving WAR (1.1/1.3/1.9), the sky is the limit for the former backstop as he continues to refine his new craft.

Brandon League

Acquired for Leon Landry and Logan Bawcom, Brandon League arrived having been stripped of his closer duties in Seattle. His 2012 with the Mariners was a season typical of your average middle reliever, as League was fanning only 5.44 per nine while walking far too many (3.83/9 IP), and had a 3.45 FIP and 4.43 SIERA. I was against the trade when it happened and League did nothing to assuage my mind in his first few outings, as he was charged with six earned runs through his first seven games with Los Angeles.

League rebounded to end 2012 strongly though, allowing one earned run from August 21 on. His strikeout rate ticked up in LA to 8.89/9 IP, the highest it had been since 2009, though he walked even more at 4.61/9
IP. His new-found success was attributed to mechanical flaws that were corrected by Rick Honeycutt and his staff.

Whether that’s true and whether his success carries over into the future or not, the 29-year-old heads into free agency banking that teams will be looking at his recent performance over his career track record that consists of 6.71 K/9 IP, 3.10 BB/9 IP, a 3.81 FIP, and a WAR that’s eclipsed 1.0 twice.

Ronald Belisario

After a time spent pretending to be Tony Montana, Ronald Belisario returned to the States and MLB in 2012. Following a 25-game suspension for violating baseball’s drug policy, Belisario made his season debut in early May and would go on to appear in a bullpen-high 68 games and 71 innings.

Belisario posted a 3.09 FIP and 2.80 SIERA, and after starting the year out-pitching his peripherals and shiny ERA, had a very good season after his year off. He fanned just shy of a batter per inning while walking 3.68 per nine and inducing a mess of ground balls (64.5 GB%), which resulted in just three homers allowed in ’12.

Belisario, after all of his troubles, is line for a nice raise from the $480,000 he made on a one-year deal in 2012. He qualified for Super Two status and is arbitration eligible, and he will be an integral part of the pen in 2013.

Javy Guerra

Javy Guerra entered 2012 as the Dodgers closer, though not the most talented reliever on the team, which is perfectly fine and is actually my preferred method of bullpen management. Following a rocky start and a liner to the head, Guerra was removed in favor of Jansen in early May.

After allowing eight earned runs in his first 14 games, which included three blown saves and a pair of losses, Guerra settled down before succumbing to a knee injury that ended his season in early September.

Though Guerra’s season is largely viewed as a failure by many, his 2012 was, in actuality, little different from his 2011 season. His strikeout rate increased (7.33/7.40), his HR/9 IP rate improved (0.39/0.20), and his FIP (3.30/3.34) and WAR remained stable (0.9/0.8).

Guerra’s “struggles” were two-fold. First, the self-inflicted portion: Guerra walked too many guys in 2012, as his BB/9 IP jumped from a high 3.47 to a terrible 4.60 per nine. That must be corrected for Javy to see more success. Second, his BABIP increased to .321 from .261. In other words, after getting lucky in 2011, 2012 saw that luck shift entirely the other way. There is almost certainly a happy medium, and in that place, Guerra is a solid contributor to the pen as a middle reliever.

Scott Elbert

After an excellent 2011 that ended with a new established role in the pen, Scott Elbert finished 2012 on the DL with an elbow injury that felled him from late August on. I wouldn’t be shocked if the elbow bothered him all year, as his numbers fell across the board.

Elbert struck out less per nine (9.18/7.99), gave up more homers (0.27/0.83), and saw a significant drop in FIP (2.73/3.80) and SIERA (3.23/3.76). The lefty also uncharacteristically struggled against his fellow southpaws in comparison with his 2011 success (.271/.342/.342/.684 after a .191/.267/.227/. 494 slash line the year before).

With Randy Choate a possibility to return if he and the club share a mutual interest, and young Paco Rodriguez emerging as another option, Elbert’s health and success in Spring Training will go a long way in determining his future with the club after years and years of injuries finally appeared to be behind him.

Shawn Tolleson

Shawn Tolleson, the club’s top relief prospect heading into 2012, got the call in early June before getting the Blake DeWitt treatment and shuffling between The Show and the minors. Though he moved around, he ended up appearing in 40 games and just under 40 innings.

Known for his swing-and-miss ability and domination of the minors, Tolleson whiffed 9.32/9 IP while posting a 4.08 FIP and 3.78 SIERA. He did struggle with his control at times, walking 4.78 per nine, and he allowed almost a homer per nine.

Five outings — in which he allowed between two and four runs in each — skewed the 24-year-old righty’s numbers a bit, though not as much as his massive struggles against the 68 lefties he faced, who hit a combined .316/.426/.471/.897 against the Texan. On the other side of the coin, Shawn was death to righties, holding them to a .152/.244/.207/.453 line.

Those lefty struggles not withstanding, the future is exceptionally bright for Clayton Kershaw‘s former teammate. Tolleson will have a prominent role in the pen going forward — whether that role begins at the outset of 2013 or not –  and a young pen featuring Jansen/Tolleson/Rodriguez/Guerra should have fans excited.

Randy Choate

Acquired in the Hanley Ramirez deal, Choate arrived with the reputation of a lefty specialist (.201/.278/.252/.530 career) and continued to dominate his brethren in 2012, limiting them to a .158/.243/.190/.433 slash line.

Though he held lefties down in 2012, Choate was mediocre overall after arriving, posting a 4.89 FIP, 4.16 SIERA, and a negative WAR (-0.1). Most troubling was his propensity for issuing free passes, to the tune of 6.08 per nine in his 36 appearances.

Paco Rodriguez

Just 21 and fresh out of college in the spring of 2012, Paco Rodriguez found himself in 11 games down the stretch and whiffed a very impressive 8.1 per nine over those 6.2 innings. He posted a 3.09 FIP and 4.17 SIERA — as well as a .143/.200/.133/.333 slash line against lefties — in his very small sample size of a career, and holds the distinction of being the first 2012 draftee to debut in The Show.

Rodriguez enters 2013 with just north of 25 professional innings under his belt, and could very likely open 2013 on the major-league roster. Paco’s immediate future hinges on Elbert’s health, the signing of some other free agent lefty specialist, and his 2013 Spring Training performance.

While he has stuff to improve upon (like his control), if he can solidify a spot in the pen he would provide the Dodgers with another lefty and a cheap bullpen option with a ton of upside.

Jamey Wright

Jamey Wright, who made the team out of Spring Training after signing a minor-league deal, surprised most with a solid campaign, surpassing expectations in his 66 appearances and 67.2 innings pitched.

Wright fanned 7.18 per nine while posting a 3.39 FIP and 3.15 SIERA. His splits were quite wacky all the way around, as he allowed southpaws to get on-base more, but righties knocked him around in terms of extra-base hits (.252/.365/.230/.595 versus LH & .283/.337/.329/.666 versus RH).

As alluded to above, Wright did struggle with his control, as he allowed around 4.0 BB/9. He did a great job, however, of keeping the ball in the park — 0.27 HR/9 — which saved him from those walks becoming more damaging. Hitters actually benefited from a bit of luck against him with a .324 BABIP, but Wright’s strong propensity for inducing ground balls (67.3%) and infield popups (12.0% IFFB) allowed him to escape his control problems relatively unscathed.

Having lived off minor-league deals, which he turned into major-league roster spots, for most of the past decade, Wright will head into 2012 — his age-38 season — with a strong likelihood of obtaining a major-league contract. Earning just under $1.5 million last year, Wright will probably receive a small raise, and the Dodgers could do a lot worse.

Odds & Ends

Matt Guerrier spent most of 2012 on the shelf with right elbow inflammation, but managed to return late in the season and appeared in 16 games totaling 14 innings. It did not go well. He pitched to a 6.31 FIP and 4.86 SIERA while walking seven, hitting a batter, and allowing a total of 16 baserunners, six earned runs, and 56 total bases against.

He has a year remaining — at $3.75 million — on the ridiculous three-year deal that Ned Colletti signed him to in late-2010. Whether he has a place in the bullpen though, considering the superior arms around him, is another story entirely.

—–

Josh Lindblom, prior to being dealt to Philadelphia in the Shane Victorino trade, struggled despite some solid peripherals following a breakout 2011. Though he struck out 8.12/9 IP while walking 3.40/9 IP, Lindblom put up a 5.07 FIP, though his SIERA was a fine 3.66.

What really killed him was the long-ball, as following a 2011 in which he didn’t allow a single homer in almost 30 innings, Josh was touched up for nine dingers before being traded.

—–

I honestly forgot Mike MacDougal was a Dodger in 2012, but he began the year on a ludicrous guaranteed one-year major-league deal. He quickly flamed out, lasting seven games and 5.2 innings too long. In that short time, he allowed 15 baserunners, five earned runs, and 32 total bases.

=====

Greg Zakwin is the founder of the site Plaschke Thy Sweater Is Argyle. Follow him on Twitter @ArgyledPlaschke.

Clayton Kershaw

After Clayton Kershaw‘s 2011 performance, for which he won the Cy Young Award, I wasn’t sure I could be more impressed with him going forward. That’s not to say I was certain he had peaked, but it would no longer come as a surprise to me or anyone else. What impressed me so much about his 2012 season though, was the fact that he had another fantastic season while pitching through physical adversity.

Kershaw had to deal with plantar fasciitis throughout most, if not all of, the campaign, on top of a late-season hip injury that could have led to surgery, and an early-season illness that forced him to last just three innings in his 2012 debut.

After 2011 bests in FIP (2.28), SIERA (2.81), xFIP (2.84), BB/9 IP (2.08), and WAR (7.2), Clayton followed with excellent marks across that spectrum yet again, with a 2.53 FIP, 3.24 SIERA, 3.25 xFIP, 2.49 free passes per nine, and a 6.3 WAR. His strikeouts remained above one per inning (9.57/9 IP in 2011, 9.05 in 2012), and he backed up his 0.98 WHIP last season with a 1.02 mark this year.

Kid K has made his living missing bats and inducing weak contact, and he continued that trend in 2012, inducing a mess of infield popups (12.2 IFFB%) and increasing the amount of ground balls he generates for a fourth consecutive season (39.4%/40.1%/43.2%/46.9%).

In line for his second consecutive Cy, and fresh off of winning the Roberto Clemente Award, Clayton heads into 2013 on the last year of the two-year deal he signed to avoid arbitration. Slated to make just $11 million in ’13, the underpaid Clayton should have already received a long-term extension. Locking up the young stud southpaw should be the primary objective of Ned Colletti and his staff going forward.

Chad Billingsley

Entering 2012, Chad Billingsley was coming off of a pair of interesting and contrasting seasons: 2010 was his best season ever, while 2011 saw him take a step back. Always the lightning rod for Dodgers fans, especially with Jonathan Broxton away in Kansas City, Bills was at somewhat of a crossroads, as a good campaign would go a long way with the organization, while a sub-par one could have easily landed him elsewhere.

Always a Billingsley fan myself, I was very optimistic about his 2012 prospects, with one caveat:

Bills struggles resulted in a WAR cut in half from the previous year (2.1, down from 4.5) and questions about his mechanics and health. Still shy of his 28th birthday, Billingsley has every chance to rebound, and much like his poor second half of 2009 led to his best professional season, said rebound in 2012 would not be the least surprising to me. In fact, I’ll call it right now, as I fully expect Chad to be productive as Kershaw’s running mate next season, provided he is in fact healthy.

And unfortunately, that caveat became reality, as Chad suffered from an elbow injury that sent him to the DL twice, felled him permanently from August 24th on, and may require Tommy John surgery if plasma injections and rest don’t suffice as a rehab method.

Prior to being shut down, Chad started 25 games, and in just shy of 150 innings, had been excellent. A FIP of 3.34, SIERA of 3.83, and HR/9 of just 0.66 worked to produce a 2.5 WAR. On pace for another 3.5 WAR season, what was most impressive about the 2012 version of Billingsley was the fact that he had cut down significantly on his walks, trimming a 4.02 BB/9 mark down to 2.71.

While Bills isn’t the pitcher Kershaw is, we saw what cutting down on free passes did for Clayton, and it was working well for Chad too before his elbow got in the way of what was shaping up to be one of his best seasons. The Dodgers were able to lock him up prior to the 2011 season for a team-friendly three-year contract with a club option for 2015, and Chad will make $11 million this upcoming year whether or not he can throw a pitch.

A 2013 prediction for Chad really can’t be accurately made, as we have little idea whether the treatments he’s presently undergoing will ultimately allow him to pitch, though the most recent news is very promising. Tommy John surgery would wipe out his entire season, but if the treatments work and he’s able to suit up for the Dodgers next year, there’s ample reason to expect another solid year.

Chris Capuano

Chris Capuano was signed to a back-loaded two-year, $10 million deal with a 2014 mutual option, and while I wasn’t thrilled with the back-loaded nature of the deal, I was alright with him being brought on as a #4 starter. Granted, with the Dodgers #3 being Ted Lilly, they really had no #3 and a plethora of #4/#5 options, but with Cap there was at least some upside.

Coming off a bounce back 2011 season following injury issues, Capuano had a solid #3/#4 type season, whiffing 7.35/9 IP while issuing 2.45 BB/9. Like the two men to follow in this review, Chris struggled in limiting home runs, allowing over one per contest. Those walk and homer numbers were improvements over his 2011 season with the Mets, but he also struck out almost a batter less per nine than he did in his lone season in New York.

A look at his FIP, SIERA, and WAR don’t offer a clear picture beyond the aforementioned #3/#4 starter status, as he improved his FIP from 2011 (4.04/3.95), as well as his WAR (1.4/2.3), but saw a decently sharp increase in his SIERA (3.63/3.90). Cap allows a lot of hard contact (~20% LD career) and fly balls (~40% career), so pitching in a park like Dodger Stadium helps to mitigate the struggles associated with that.

Perhaps most interesting is Chris’ career pre- and post-ASG splits. In 2012, Capuano allowed a .232/.295/.374/.669 line to opponents pre-break, but that ballooned to .281/.317/.454/.770 following the mid-summer classic. Those numbers hold true for his career, as he’s always been more of a first-half pitcher (.257/.320/.414/.734 vs. .273/.331/.473/.804 with BABIP and K/BB marks that have remained steady).

He’ll enter 2013 as the #3 or #4 starter, and if he can up that strikeout rate a bit, he could be solid yet again.

Aaron Harang

Signed to a back-loaded two-year, $12 million deal with a mutual option for 2014 — a deal I was against at the time and still am upset with — Aaron Harang was exactly what he has been since Dusty Baker ruined his arm a few years back: an overpaid #4/#5 starter.

In 31 starts and just under 180 innings, Harang struck out a paltry 6.56 per nine while issuing an poor 4.26 free passes per nine. His shiny ERA may lead many to see his season as a success, but dig just a bit deeper and you find a 4.14 FIP, 4.87 SIERA, and just a 1.7 WAR.

Harang hasn’t exceeded 2.3 WAR since 2007, has not struck out more than seven per nine since 2009, and has seen his walk rate trend up in the last four seasons. That’s … uh … not good, and barring a trade, Harang will return and try to hold off age for another 30 or so starts.

Ted Lilly

Lilly only made eight starts in 2012, totaling under 50 innings, as the injury bug bit him hard in the form of a left shoulder ailment that would end up requiring arthroscopic surgery.

Prior to his injury, in an obviously small sample size, the veteran lefty posted a 3.92 FIP and 4.81 SIERA while seeing a sharp drop in his strikeout numbers from 2011 and his career rate (5.73 in ’12, 7.38 in ’11, 7.64 career).

Entering the final year of a back-loaded three-year-deal that will pay him $12 million in 2013, Lilly no longer has no-trade clause protection, but considering that he is coming off of an injury to his pitching shoulder and will be 37 for the duration of next season, there’s not much value to be had on the trade market anyway.

Lilly will reportedly be available for Spring Training barring any setback, and with a rotation already set, there’s a chance Lilly winds up in the pen to complement Scott Elbert and/or Paco Rodriguez, occupying a long-relief role and spot-starting when necessary.

Josh Beckett

Acquired in the massive deal with Boston, Josh Beckett arrived on the heels of an overblown but still bad 21 starts with the Red Sox in 2012. I say overblown because he was pitching like a #3 starter in 2012, but with all of the focus on his personality and the September collapse of 2011, you’d have thought he was pitching his way out of baseball entirely.

His results were terrible in Boston (5.23 ERA), but Beckett had posted a 4.26 FIP and 4.28 SIERA before the deal, while walking 2.7 per 9. Most concerning were his drop in strikeouts to roughly 6.5 per 9 after five straight seasons of over 8.0 per 9.

Upon his arrival, Beckett was solid and showed improvement, striking out almost 8.0 per 9 with a 3.82 FIP and 3.81 SIERA. While some might attribute that to the new manager and new clubhouse environment, it’s far more likely due to the weaker league and weaker division, offensively-speaking.

Beckett is under contract for another two seasons, each at $15.75 million, and slots in as the #2 or #3 starter heading into 2013. Going into his age-33 season, Beckett is no sure thing to transform back into the front of the rotation starter he once was, though that’s what the Dodgers will need out of him if they don’t go out and get an arm in the off-season.

Joe Blanton

Acquired from the Phillies for a PTNBL that eventually became pitcher Ryan O’Sullivan, Joe Blanton turned in a solid ten starts for the Blue Crew, posting a 3.74 FIP and 3.61 SIERA while whiffing 8.0 per 9 and walking 2.5 per 9.

Blanton’s strikeouts were a pleasant surprise, as his career mark sits just above 6.0 per 9, though he did struggle with the home run, as usual, allowing over one per game as a Dodger. Blanton’s overall season numbers are fifth-starter material, as he posted a 1.7 WAR, though his peripherals were good enough to be a #4.

After making $8.5 million each of the last two seasons, Blanton heads to free agency, and entering his age-32 season, he’ll certainly be looking for at least a two-year commitment from a team. The Dodgers will be after an arm or two, and there are worse options than him, but with the Dodgers flush in cash I doubt he’ll be a target.

Odds & Ends

Nate Eovaldi made 10 starts for the Dodgers prior to being dealt to Florida for Hanley Ramirez. In those ten starts, the 22-year-old righty struck out just 5.4/9 IP while walking 3.2/9 IP. He put up an FIP of 4.11 and a SIERA of 4.67.

While some are high on his stuff and potential as a #3 starter, I always saw him as a reliever due to his low strikeout numbers, and for the chance that Hanley hits again, it was a great trade in my book.

—–

Stephen Fife, acquired in the Trayvon Robinson deal that made no sense at the time, made just five spot-starts for the Dodgers in 2012. Everything I saw from the 26-year-old profiles as a bullpen arm who can spot-start here and there.

With an FIP of 4.14 and a SIERA of 4.67, I suppose he could be a fifth starter, but again, he seems to profile as a fungible relief arm with his lack of swing and miss stuff and the decrease in strikeouts as he’s advanced levels to face more competent hitting.

=====

Greg Zakwin is the founder of the site Plaschke Thy Sweater Is Argyle. Follow him on Twitter @ArgyledPlaschke.

Clayton Kershaw may need surgery on his right hip and he could miss not only the rest of this season but the start of next season as well, according to Dylan Hernandez of the Los Angeles Times.

If Kershaw must undergo surgery to repair his ailing right hip, he isn’t expected to be pitching in the major leagues until the middle of May, according to people familiar with his condition who were not authorized to speak publicly about it.

Kershaw’s decision on whether to have an operation will be made after Kershaw receives a second opinion from Dr. Bryan Kelly on Tuesday in New York. Kershaw was unable to make his scheduled start for the Dodgers on Sunday.

The team fears he may have a torn labrum that would require surgery.

My opinion on Clayton is the same as it is regarding Matt Kemp: the team should shut them both down. 2012 is not the last year baseball will be played, and this team will be better next year simply by having some of these new pieces on the roster to begin the season. Their future years of service are far more important than a single stretch run in a season that has seen the Dodgers somehow stay in the race despite the unluckiness of multiple serious injuries to vital cogs.

—–

Scott Elbert was speculated to be returning as soon as Tuesday, but he’ll be out for the season and is set to undergo elbow surgery due to persistent problems.

Left-hander Scott Elbert is scheduled to undergo a season-ending operation Wednesday to clean up his throwing elbow.

The surgery will be performed by team physician Dr. Neal ElAttrache. Elbert is expected to be ready for the start of spring training.

Elbert last pitched Aug. 26. The next day, he was put on the disabled list for the second time this season.

Elbert pitched a simulated game Friday.

“The next day, he went out to play catch and it was back, same thing,” Manager Don Mattingly said. “So we knew he was done.”

As unfair as it might be, Paco Rodriguez now becomes a key piece in the bullpen despite being in college to start the year.

—–

Kenley Jansen is likely to return on Tuesday. Jansen’s doctors have cleared him to stop taking blood-thinners.

If he’s back to normal then he’ll be an asset even if there’s initial rust, but something rubs me the wrong way about risking anything in regards to this problem. After all, we’re talking about a guy’s life here, screw baseball.

—–

Chad Billingsley‘s elbow is progressing well and he’s slated to start a throwing program in the coming weeks.

—–

Ted Lilly, rehabbing a shoulder injury, will have arthroscopic surgery on his pitching shoulder. According to head trainer Sue Falsone, he will be ready for Spring Training in 2013, the final year of a three-year contract.

—–

Dee Gordon was reinstated after missing 50 games and spending a couple of months on the 60-day DL with a torn ligament in his right thumb. Dee recently completed a rehab stint in Albuquerque.

—–

Room was made for Dee on the 40-man when the team placed Adam Kennedy on the 60-day DL with a groin strain.

—–

Don Mattingly has declared Javy Guerra likely out for the year, as was suspected.

—–

In minor-league injury news, Blake Smith, Gustavo Gomez, Brandon Martinez, Luis Vasquez, Steve Cilladi, Chris O’Brien, Angelo Ponte, Jharel Cotton, Sawil Gonzalez, Francisco Villa, and Matt Laney all landed on either the 7-day or 60-day DL.

Paco Rodriguez, the lefty reliever out of University Of Florida and the Dodgers‘ second round pick in 2012, was recalled to replace the injured Chad Billingsley, who found himself on the 60-day DL with his elbow injury that may require offseason surgery.

Rodriguez becomes the first 2012 draftee to debut in The Show. He’ll help out with lefty reliever depth out of the pen with Scott Elbert and Ted Lilly on the mend.

—–

Bobby Abreu was recalled from AAA Albuquerque. To make room for him on the 40-man roster, Chris Withrow was momentarily recalled before being placed on the 60-day DL.

He should help with bench depth and could spell struggling Shane Victorino from time to time at this rate.

—–

Alex Castellanos was recalled from AAA.

He’ll likely be a right-handed bench addition, but there’s a case to be made that maybe the Dodgers are better off hoping he can find his stroke and make some quality starts in the outfield. Would be hard to be worse than Juan Rivera.

—–

Josh Wall also got a call-up from the Isotopes.

Will look to provide depth to a suddenly thin bullpen arrangement.

Clayton Kershaw was scratched from his last start due to a hip injury, for which he received a cortisone shot. His start was taken by Joe Blanton. Clayton hopes to return and start on Tuesday.

—–

Kenley Jansen, barring any unforeseen setback, will pitch again this season before undergoing offseason surgery on his heart. He won’t pitch within the next ten days – at the least – as he waits for his blood-thinner medication to leave his system.

—–

Chad Billingsley had another platelet injection in his right elbow before seeing his season end as he was placed on the 60-day DL. Paco Rodriguez was called up and took Bills’ roster spot. Now all that remains is whether or not he ends up needing surgery. Bills will resume throwing in two weeks, after tests revealed a partial tear of the UCL in the aforementioned right elbow.

—–

Randy Choate took a grounder off of his pitching hand but should be fine, as he said a couple of fingers were struck but no major damage came from it. With both Scott Elbert and Ted Lilly rehabbing and Paco a rookie, the Dodgers are short on southpaws in the pen, making Choate’s continued health vital.

—–

Javy Guerra was placed on the 15-day DL with an oblique strain, and there’s a real chance his season is over.

—–

Adam Kennedy injured his groin and is likely out for the season, saying he “felt a pop.”

—–

If Ted Lilly – who threw a simulated game earlier in the week – returns, it will be in a relief role.

—–

Jerry Hairston Jr. is scheduled to undergo surgery on his ailing hip on Monday.

—–

Chris Withrow was transferred to the 60-day DL after a momentary call-up in order to allow Bobby Abreu to be placed back on the 40-man roster.

Matt Kemp left Tuesday’s game in Colorado after smashing into the center field wall, somehow managing to stay in, and soon thereafter diving for a ball and landing awkwardly. If you’re so inclined, GIFs of the collision can be seen here. Tests revealed no concussion or concussion symptoms, and Matt walked away from the incident with nothing more than a bruised left knee. He returned to the lineup a few days after the frightening incident.

—–

Kenley Jansen was unavailable for the series in Colorado after experiencing recurring issues with his heart, which felled him for a month or so in 2011 and earlier in 2012 during Spring Training. These new issues are related to the old ones, reports Dylan Hernandez. The Dodgers and Jansen await test results, as his season could be over.

—–

Chad Billingsley‘s season also hangs in the balance as he awaits what could be season-ending surgery. These fears were expressed earlier in the week by Stan Kasten. Bills’ right elbow was treated with an injection of platelet-rich plasma in an effort to avoid missing the stretch run. Tommy John surgery seems like a possibility if our worst fears come to fruition.

—–

Scott Elbert was placed on the 15-day DL once again with left elbow inflammation. Shawn Tolleson was recalled to take his place. Don Mattingly is cautiously optimistic that Elbert could return when the 15-day period concludes.

—–

Matt Guerrier was activated from the 60-day DL, sending Josh Wall back to AAA and Dee Gordon from the 15-day DL to the 60-day DL in the process. Gordon won’t be gone for long though, as he is eligible to return now that rosters have expanded.

—–

Alfredo Silverio was transferred to the 60-day DL in order to free up a spot on the 40-man roster to allow for John Ely‘s call-up. Silverio is on the DL after suffering multiple injuries in a car crash earlier this year.

—–

In minor league injury news, Arismendy Ozoria, Luis Vasquez, Mike Antonini, Jarret Martin, Aaron Miller, Greg Wilborn, Casio Grider, Charlie Mirabal, Bobby Coyle, and Tyler Henson were all placed on the 7-day DL, while a host of others – most notably Chris Reed and Bobby Abreu – were activated from the 7-day DL.

Now that rosters have expanded, let the speculation on who gets the September call begin!

Pump the brakes a bit though, because unfortunately for the people who wish to see young players show their stuff: 1) the 40-man roster is full 2) guys on the 60-day DL are due to return 3) um … the team just traded away all of the top prospects that were close to contributing.

—–

One of the primary issues is that Rubby De La Rosa and Jerry Sands are still on the Dodgers 40-man roster, so it creates a bit of a mess in terms of roster spots. This is especially true because Ted Lilly (maybe) and Dee Gordon are set to return, which means guys will have to get designated just to fit them in. Perhaps Chad Billingsley, Kenley Jansen, or Scott Elbert could be placed on the 60-day DL, but that creates more holes, not less.

Either way, guys like Adam Kennedy, Juan Uribe, Matt Angle, Elian Herrera, and Stephen Fife might not want to get too comfortable on the 40-man, depending on what direction the team decides on. However, due to the roster crunch, those hoping for players not on the 40-man roster to get called — like John Ely, Tony Gwynn Jr., and Bobby Abreu — might be left disappointed.

—–

Among those who I feel could help the team immediately are Tim Federowicz, Javy Guerra, Josh Wall, and Alex Castellanos. I already went over the reasons Guerra could contribute, as I believed sending him down to begin with was foolish. Wall, despite just an average year at AAA, has the raw stuff catch fire and help stabilize a suddenly shaky bullpen. Federowicz is not as good a hitter as his .296/.371/.465/.836 line in AAA would indicate, but he’s a good defender and is an upgrade over Matt Treanor right now. Castellanos could provide right-handed thump off the bench, as his .338/.431/.610/1.041 line in AAA would somewhat indicate. I’d rather see him get a chance than continue to run Juan Rivera out there, that’s for sure.

Other possibilities on the 40-man are Scott Van Slyke and Fife. Van Slyke could do much the same as Castellanos, but I have less confidence in his bat. Still, he can hardly be a worse pinch hitting option than Uribe or Kennedy or Nick Punto. I’m not sure Fife would fit in the bullpen, but if he’s not going to get designated then he could be called up to use as a long man.

Ely, Gwynn, and Abreu could all help, but I have to think they’re long shots due to the roster crunch reasons I mentioned earlier. Personally, I would have no problem designating about a half dozen players, but the team has somehow managed to resist doing that all year, so I don’t see why they would start now. With that said, if a starter goes down with injury, Ely deserves a chance after putting up a 3.20 ERA in 168.2 innings with solid peripherals in that league. Gwynn has put up a .304/.400/.393/.793 line at AAA and I really feel like he has to be added to the 40-man and called up somehow, if for no other reason than to pinch run. If Abreu’s healthy, he could probably do what Shane Victorino is producing in left right now sans the defense, so he could be a useful bench guy.

—–

Assuming Billingsley, Jansen, and Elbert return from injury, and that Gordon will be back but not Lilly, I would call on Federowicz, Guerra, Wall, Castellanos, Van Slyke, Gwynn, and Abreu while designating Uribe, Angle, and Herrera.

In a surprising move late yesterday, the Dodgers traded prospects Leon Landry and Logan Bawcom to the Mariners for Brandon League.

League, 29, is owed approximately $1.8MM for the rest of the season before becoming a free agent this winter. He’s pitched to a 3.63 ERA with 5.4 K/9 and 3.8 BB/9 in 44 2/3 innings this year, plus his usual sky-high ground ball rate is down to just 46.9%. The Dodgers have lost Matt Guerrier and Todd Coffey to injury this season, so League will add some late-inning depth.

Landry, 22, is hitting .328/.358/.559 with eight homers and 15 triples in 376 plate appearances for Los Angeles’ High Class-A affiliate this season while spending most of his time in center field. Bawcom, a 23-year-old right-hander, owns a 2.03 ERA with 11.1 K/9 and 4.1 BB/9 in 48 2/3 relief innings split between Single-A and Double-A this year. Neither player ranked among the team’s top 30 prospects in Baseball America’s Prospect Handbook before the season.

Leon Landry wasn’t in my Prospect Rankings for 2012, but he was headed for a top 20 spot in 2013 prior to this deal happening. The leap comes as a result of his .328/.358/.559/.917 line at high-A and his defensive ability. His upside is probably as a fringy regular due to his poor plate discipline and lack of offensive tools, and I think he fits more as a reserve outfielder type in the majors.

Logan Bawcom wasn’t in my Prospect Rankings for 2012 either, but he too was headed there in 2013. He posted a 0.64 ERA with a 1.06 FIP in 14 innings at high-A, then followed that by posting a 2.60 ERA and 2.88 FIP in 34.2 innings at AA. He has command issues from time to time but has strikeout stuff that should play at advanced levels. Bawcom has a fastball that can sit in the mid-90s and a good sharp slider. He has the upside of a 7th inning guy and a floor that likely still has him as a bullpen contributor, both of which made him one of the arms I was talking about when I referred to relief arms as a system strength.

Brandon League comes to the Dodgers with a 3.63 ERA/3.43 FIP/4.40 xFIP/4.43 SIERA in 2012. After a career year in 2011, he has basically regressed to his career norms (3.69/3.88/3.64/3.34). He’s not without red flags though, as his 14.0 K% is his lowest since 2007 and his BB% is his highest since 2008. Essentially, he’s an above average bullpen guy who was once used as a closer.

—–

On its face, one has to wonder what the point of this trade was. After all, how much of an upgrade is he over Scott Elbert, Javy Guerra, Josh Lindblom, and company? Hell, Jamey Wright is having an equally quality year at the moment and it already pains me when he enters the game.

What I have to assume is that he was acquired because the Dodgers are on the verge of trading a reliever like Lindblom or Guerra in a deal for a pitcher/first baseman/outfielder. If not, while nothing will quite top the Octavio Dotel deal, this will likely go down as another complete waste of assets. Hell, even if a trade involving a reliever does occur, it’s still a mediocre deal to me. Quality starters rarely make much of a marginal value impact after the deadline, much less average relievers.

For me to even get to that point of acknowledging it as mediocre though, a reliever would have to be traded out of the bullpen for help elsewhere. Here’s hoping it’s for something worthwhile.

Guess you can’t stop Ned Colletti, you can only hope to contain him.

Ken Rosenthal and Jon Paul Morosi of Fox Sports reported that the Dodgers have agreed to trade Nate Eovaldi and Scott McGough to the Marlins for Hanley Ramirez and Randy Choate.

Surprised? So is basically everybody else.

The Miami Marlins’ shocking midseason rebuild continued with a blockbuster trade after 2 a.m. ET Wednesday: They sent mercurial star Hanley Ramirez and left-handed reliever Randy Choate to the Dodgers for young pitchers Nathan Eovaldi and Scott McGough, according to major-league sources.

The trade will have lasting ramifications for the entire National League. The Dodgers, 2 1/2 games behind the archrival Giants in the West, made clear their intent to reach the postseason in their first year under new ownership. The trade amounted to a show of financial might for the Dodgers; Ramirez, 28, is earning $15 million this season, and no cash was included in the deal.

I previously gave my general thoughts on the trade here, and upon further review of the numbers and the circumstances, I still feel similar, but with a tad bit more apprehension.

Hanley Ramirez

As a 22-year-old in 2006, Hanley won the National League Rookie Of The Year Award with an .833 OPS. In the three seasons following that, he posted a line of .325/.398/.549/.947 as a shortstop, deservingly attaining superstar billing. Starting in 2010 though, he saw his production decline and controversy over his hustle erupt. While he posted a still elite .853 OPS at the SS position, he was no longer one of the best hitters in the league.

Suffering from a shoulder injury and general ineffectiveness in 2011, he missed half the year and performed woefully below his standards when he was healthy. That trend continues into 2012, as he has now posted a .245/.328/.405/.732 line in his last 184 games. Making matters worse, he recently has been suffering from an infected hand … basically because he forgot to take medication for it.

With a bat that puts him around league average as a hitter, he would still be quite valuable at both SS and 3B if he could field his position. Unfortunately, using any metric you want, Hanley is not an average defender. For his career at shortstop, he averages -12.1 runs via Plus/Minus, -9.1 runs via UZR, and -11.8 runs via FRAA. In other words, he’s a bad defender there. In 2012, he moved to 3B but hasn’t shown to be any better there. He’s on pace for -17.1 runs via Plus/Minus, -11.2 runs via UZR, and -22.7 runs via FRAA at the hot corner. To be kind about it, he’s a mediocre defender no matter where he has played.

As I said though, he’ll be an improvement for the Dodgers at either position almost no matter what:

Regardless of what position he ends up playing, Hanley figures to be a gigantic improvement over the unholy combination of Juan Uribe, Dee Gordon, Adam Kennedy, Elian Herrera, and Luis Cruz. The production the Dodgers are getting from both 3B and SS is just terrible, and it’s not like they were playing quality defense either, so Hanley’s questionable glove shouldn’t burn the team too often.

Then there’s the issue of his contract. The Dodgers are paying him ~$40 million for two years and two months of his service, which puts ~7.5 WAR as the target where the Dodgers can get fair value just for what they have to pay him. At his peak, this would be a complete no-brainer, as he could put up a 7.5 WAR season in a single year; he was that great of a hitter. Now though? He’s amassed a little over ~2 WAR in 2011 and 2012 combined. Performing at levels similar to this, he’s a 2-3 WAR player, which would make the trade a poor deal for the Dodgers.

—–

Hanley is still an elite talent though, and the Dodgers took a risk in a market where elite talents are almost impossible to acquire without dropping a 10-year contract on them.

While nagging injuries is just one of the many explanations I’ve heard for Hanley’s decline, luck can also have an effect. Ramirez never posted a BABIP below .327 prior to 2011, but then posted a .275 BABIP in 2011 and has a .271 BABIP this year. It doesn’t explain away all of his poor performance, but even regression back to .310 or so would make him a well above average player again, so there’s reason to think that Ned Colletti bought low here (yes, you read that correctly).

Furthermore, in the context of the Dodgers current roster and farm system at SS and 3B, the team clearly can’t fill those positions internally, so Hanley being average there is worth more to the Dodgers than it might be to others. This is especially true due to the almost non-existent free agent market at those positions in the coming years.

—–

The Dodgers made this trade with the expectation that Hanley would do a lot more than he currently is, and he’ll have to be better just to make the trade fair for both sides. The Dodgers are banking that he can regain his old form with a change of scenery, a change of coaching staff, and perhaps a refreshed attitude. It’s far from impossible for him, as finding just one of those things can do wonders for a player.

Just ask Matt Kemp.

Randy Choate

Choate is a lefty reliever making $1.5 million this year and he will be a free agent at the end of 2012. He’s pitching well thus far, posting a 2.49 ERA, 2.35 FIP, 3.11 xFIP, and 2.68 SIERA. More importantly though, he’s dominating lefties to the tune of a .150/.200/.183/.383 line. It’s no fluke either, as lefties have hit .203/.277/.285/.562 off Choate over his career.

Is he an impact player? No, but he fills a need that the Dodgers have been seeking out since the start of Spring Training. Scott Elbert has been effective as the bullpen’s only lefty, but lefties have a .325 wOBA off him compared to a .251 wOBA for righties. That creates a problem for the Dodgers when they need a matchup lefty late in the game, and Choate fills that role for the team perfectly.

Nate Eovaldi

Over his 91 innings in the MLB, he has posted a 3.96 ERA and 4.18 FIP. As a player that can contribute to the Marlins immediately, he can already be seen as a ~2 WAR type of pitcher. Given that he has about five years of team control left after 2012, there’s no doubt he’s a valuable commodity.

As far as upside goes, I don’t think he’s done anything to acquit himself of the #3 label I gave him back in March, as he’s still fastball dominant with lagging off-speed pitches. However, he’s a productive, cheap player that’s one adjustment away from approaching his ceiling.

Despite his value, the Dodgers trading an arm like him makes sense:

From the Dodgers perspective though, they have a ton of arms in the system, and with both Rubby De La Rosa and Ted Lilly due back soon, plus a potential trade for Ryan Dempster/Matt Garza, Nate was an understandably expendable piece.

The surplus of arms in the system made him expendable if the Dodgers could get a quality return … and they did.

Scott McGough

I wrote about him back in February and nothing has changed since then, in my opinion.

I haven’t seen him get much attention but I liked him at the University Of Oregon and I think he has a chance at a bullpen role down the road. Sitting 91-93 and touching 95, there’s plenty of velocity to make it to the show. However, his low-80s slurve will need to improve, not so much the command like most young pitchers, but the break itself needs to be sharper or it’ll get hammered as he moves levels.

Or if you don’t believe me, then Kevin Goldstein posted a similar report a few hours back.

A fifth-round pick in 2011, McGough is an intriguing relief prospect who still has plenty to work on. At six feet tall and with a slight build, he’s on the small side, but he has an incredibly fast arm capable of firing 93-95-mph fastballs that touch 97, although there is some effort in his delivery. His command and control is no better than average, and his ultimate role as either a late-inning reliever or just another bullpen piece will come down to the development of his slider. He’ll flash a plus one with heavy break, but it’s a rarity, as he has a tendency to overthrow the pitch and has trouble keeping it in the strike zone.

I think McGough can contribute for the Marlins in the bullpen with some development, but I don’t see him as an elite arm that would fit as a closer or such. Therefore, I don’t mind his inclusion in the deal.

=====

At the current level of production for all the players involved, the Dodgers are paying around $40 million for about 6 WAR and are trading 8-10 WAR (Eovaldi) or more plus potentially six years of a solid reliever (McGough) to the Marlins. That reality is why the trade is a significant risk on the part of the Dodgers.

Even taking that into consideration though, the temptation of Hanley’s upside chart is what makes this deal. It represents what could happen if Hanley does round back into form (~15 WAR), and it’s significant because the Dodgers will then have managed to pick up a rare elite talent in a market that’s a bit bare at the moment.

So with money to burn and the Dodgers having no internal answers, the gamble seems to be worth taking.