So in case you were under a rock yesterday, Zack Greinke has a broken collarbone and is out for a while, essentially because Carlos Quentin is an idiot.

As one would imagine, the reactions to what went down from the Dodgers dugout, media, and bloggers weren’t the most pleasant towards Quentin.

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Don Mattingly called him an idiot and said he should be suspended for however long Greinke is out.

“I don’t understand it either. We’re in a 2-1 game, and on a 3-2 pitch to guy I saw on the board set a record for the Padres by getting hit, a guy that basically dives into the plate. In a 2-1 game we’re trying to hit him 3-2? It’s just stupid, is what it is,” said manager Don Mattingly. “He should not play a game until Greinke can throw a pitch. If he plays before Greinke pitches, something is wrong.”

“He caused the whole thing,” Mattingly said of Quentin. “Nothing happens if you go to first base like in baseball you know you do, because you know he’s not throwing at you 3-2, in a 2-1 game. That’s zero understanding of the game of baseball.”

I don’t disagree.

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Matt Kemp went the extra mile to try and find out why Quentin charged the mound.

Kemp and Quentin were nose-to-nose before Richard stepped in. Kemp kept asking Quentin why he did it.

Matt Kemp confronted Carlos Quentin as the 2 were leaving Petco Park. Clayton Richard, cops, security broke it up.

Pretty stupid when you think about it. Last thing the team needs is for him to get hurt and/or suspended for dealing with that asshole.

While on the field though, Kemp lost it after he heard about Greinke being hurt.

Mattingly on Matt Kemp, one of three ejected: “once he knew Zack was hurt, he lost it

That reaction is more understandable to me.

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A.J. Ellis said that even a Padres player thought it was bullshit.

A.J. Ellis said #Padres players apologized for Quentin’s actions. “It’s not right, it’s not right,” he said one player told him.

Amusing that people are defending Quentin when people on his own team don’t even agree … off the record, of course.

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Speaking of the Padres, in a move of sheer class, Jerry Hairston Jr. relays that the reason he ran over to the Padres dugout, after things had seemingly settled a bit, was to confront a player making fun of the injured Greinke.

“It’s terrible. It’s unacceptable, and I lost it. If a guy’s going to hit you, he’s going to hit you on the very first pitch. This is The Show, you don’t do that stuff. My teammate now has a broken f—ing collarbone, because he hit you on a 3-2 pitch?” Hairston said. “I don’t know Carlos at all, I really don’t, but he was wrong.”

Hairston was ejected for going after one of the Padres after the initial melee had died down.

“I was playing peacemaker, just trying to break it up. Obviously Zack was hurt. One of the guys was chirping the whole time, making fun of him for having the hurt shoulder, broken collarbone, or whatever,” Hairston said.

Losing Zack stings, but we ll pick each other up. Zacks like my little brother. Saw someone making fun of him being injured. Not cool!!

Hairston said it wasn’t Yonder Alonso, and I’ve heard it was John Baker, which would make perfect sense since he’s a backup catcher nobody that will never have to answer for running his mouth. Who knows what the truth is, but it would explain why Hairston lost it.

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As far Quentin goes, his excuses after the game were about as irrational as you’d expect.

Quentin blames Greinke for history of HBP. Quentin said he has led league in HBP 2 years running and has never charged mound in MLB.

Translation: “I always lead the league in being hit, but never charge the mound. I did this time though! Why? His fault! But I won’t tell you why.”

Quentin, asked if any remorse: “I did what I did. It could have been avoided.”

Yeah, by you not charging the mound.

Look, I mentioned this in the other post, but Quentin gets hit a lot because of how he dives into the plate, so him getting hit multiple times by pitchers he faced a ton shouldn’t be surprising. In fact, if getting hit by Greinke often was his rationale for being upset, then Jon Weisman found a list of players Quentin should have been raging at before tonight:

The short list of pitchers who clearly have it in for Carlos Quentin: twitter.com/jonweisman/sta…

— Jon Weisman (@jonweisman) April 12, 2013

It’s a long list for a reason, put it that way.

So, hear my plea Carlos Quentin: FUCKING MOVE!

Move out of the way. Just don’t be in that place when the pitch comes at you. I know some plunkings are unavoidable. But surely you can cut down on a lot of them. Duck, or spin away, or bend backward or something. Just fucking move. Take your walk the traditional way.

A post written in jest, but prophetic nevertheless.

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For his part, Greinke said he didn’t hit Quentin on purpose but knows Quentin thinks he did.

“The only thing I’ll say about that is that I’ve never hit him on purpose,” Greinke said. “He always seems to think I hit him on purpose, but that’s not the case.”

It was the third time in 31 career plate appearances that Greinke hit Quentin. But he is hardly alone in that regard, as Quentin leads the majors with 97 HBP since the beginning of 2008.

“I thought it was a ploy to get people to not throw inside to him, so he can lean out away,” Greinke said. “I don’t know anyone who has hit him on purpose.”

Quentin maintained Greinke hit him intentionally.

“Myself and Greinke have a history, it dates back to a few years ago. You guys could look it up. It’s documented. It’s unfortunate about the situation. It could have been avoided. You can ask Zack about that,” Quentin said. “I can tell you I’ve never responded in that fashion before.”

Speaking of Quentin complaining about getting hit while diving over the plate, Giants pitcher Ryan Vogelsong gave a quote last year when Quentin got mad at him for throwing inside that basically sums Quentin’s attitude up.

A reminder after taking in the brawl last night between the Dodgers and Padres after Zack Greinke hit Carlos Quentin, who then charged the pitcher and broke his collarbone: Last Aug. 19 in San Diego, Ryan Vogelsong had a beef with Quentin after hitting him with a pitch, and Clayton Richard retaliating by hitting Brandon Belt.

Vogelsong fumed after the game that Quentin crowds the plate and should not react the way he does.

“Go look at the video,” Vogelsong fumed. “It was a two-seamer that ran of the plate. That guy hammers balls over the plate and he gets pissed when you throw the ball inside. It doesn’t make sense. Every time you hit a guy in this game now they think you did it on purpose. It’s tired.”

Sounds familiar.

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As far as the accusation that Greinke was trying to instigate a fight:

Zack Greinke was asked if he wanted to fight Carlos Quentin. “I can’t remember the last time I wanted to get in a fight with someone.”

I think most would agree that he seems like the last person who would want to start anything physical.

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As for the opposing side, Padres fans are handling this extremely classy … hahahaha no.

This doesn’t even scratch the surface of it, but just to give you a taste:

*Click To Enlarge*

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My take: you never want to see a player charging the mound, but it’s not like it’s never happened before. (1/2)

— Nathan Veale (@The_NV) April 12, 2013

Greinke intentionally moved his body into harm’s way and charged at Quentin. He didn’t have to. That’s his own fault. (2/2)

— Nathan Veale (@The_NV) April 12, 2013

Quentin may have started it, but Greinke’s response was “challenge accepted.” You get what you ask for in this world.

— Nathan Veale (@The_NV) April 12, 2013

Remember guys, Quentin started it, we can all agree on that, but once Quentin started walking toward Greinke and then charged, Greinke didn’t run away, therefore, any injury suffered is HIS fault.

I’d hate for that guy to be in charge of the law. If you got assaulted on the street, his advice would be to not fight back or else you deserve everything that happens to you.

Logic.

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Anyway, reading through my Twitter timeline, seems like the consensus among even non-Dodger fans is “fuck Quentin”, so in conclusion:

The Dodgers beat the rival Giants on Opening Day at home to begin 2013, but it wasn’t so much the win that was surprising as how they did it.

Leading off the bottom of the eighth inning of a 0-0 game, Clayton Kershaw was left in to hit, and he justified the decision, not with his arm, but with his bat.

That was his first career homer, and it made people lose their minds.

Never been prouder of Dodger fans as when they completed that successful high five.

So … that happened too.

Then Matt Kemp and the dugout did whatever this is:

Zombie dance?

And Luis Cruz is so excited. We so excited.

Fun fun fun.

Unfortunately, Kershaw is basically the worst curtain call giver in history.

We can work on that though.

Baseball fans love to talk about clutch plays and clutch players, and Dodgers fans are no exception, but like with a pitcher’s best and worst pitches, there tends to be a lack of evidence presented. As such, I decided to find some basis for clutch plays and clutch players, courtesy of the WPA and Clutch statistics.

WPA

Most sabermetric statistics are context neutral — they do not consider the situation of a particular event or how some plays are more crucial to a win than others. While wOBA rates all home runs as equal, we know intuitively that a home run in the third inning of a blowout is less important to that win than a home run in the bottom of the ninth inning of a close game. Win Probability Added (WPA) captures this difference by measuring how individual players affect their team’s win expectancy on a per-play basis.

Clutch

In the words of David Appelman, this calculation measures, “…how much better or worse a player does in high leverage situations than he would have done in a context neutral environment.” It also compares a player against himself, so a player who hits .300 in high leverage situations when he’s an overall .300 hitter is not considered clutch.

So that’s the foundation for this post, and since that’s now been established, let’s get on with it, shall we?

As always, visuals have been provided because, let’s be honest, everything is better with visuals.

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I feel like it’s necessary to point out that none of this is predictive of the future or telling of the past. It’s a post about stuff that happened in 2012. That’s all.

In other words, please don’t link back to this while saying, “LOOK! THIS DUDE IS SUCH A CHOKER, BRO!” No.

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Top Five David Carradine Choke Jobs Of 2012

1. Andre Ethier – -39.3%

Horrifying.

With the bases loaded and one down in the bottom of the eighth, and the Dodgers trailing the rival Giants 2-1, Andre Ethier comes up and … yeah.

…

2. Jerry Hairston Jr. – -34.1%

Nobody out in the bottom of the ninth and trailing by a run, Jerry Hairston Jr. decides it’s a sweet time to ground into a double play while there’s runners on first and second, thus killing a massive opportunity.

3. Adam Kennedy – -33.6%

Second and third and one out in the bottom of the ninth and trailing by one run, Adam Kennedy did what he did best in 2012: rolling over and chopping a ball to the right side.

Extra scorn for almost killing Matt Kemp.

4. Tony Gwynn Jr. – -29.1%

Just looking.

Down by a run in the bottom of the ninth with runners on second and third, Tony Gwynn Jr. needed to put the ball in play and give himself a chance. Instead, he did his best impersonation of a statue.

5. Mark Ellis – -25.7%

Bottom of the tenth and trailing by a run, the Dodgers put men on first and third with one out, but Mark Ellis … did that.

Bonus anger for doing it against Jonathan Papelbon.

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Commentary? So much fail.

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Top Five Chokeiest Dodgers Of 2012 – Field Player Division

1. A.J. Ellis – -1.62
2. Adam Kennedy – -1.14
3. Andre Ethier – -1.01
4. Jerry Hairston Jr. – -0.95
5. Shane Victorino – -0.37

The Dodgers pitchers and catchers report to Camelback Ranch today, on Feb. 12, which officially kicks off the baseball season for the team, and tomorrow, on Feb. 13, they’ll have their first workout, in which I like to imagine Aaron Harang lumbering through conditioning drills like a monkey.

The rest of the team will report to camp on Feb. 15, and Spring Training will be in full swing the following day, on Feb. 16, as they get their first team workout in, which hopefully includes Josh Beckett running around a lot, so he doesn’t look like this:

The team’s first Spring Training game will take place a week after the whole team reports, on Feb. 23 against the White Sox, who they share the facility with. On March 5, the minor-league portion of pitchers and catchers report, while everybody else comes in on March 11.

The last game of Spring Training will come on March 29 against the Angels (ANAHEIM!), with Opening Day following shortly at home against the rival Giants on April 1. I’m eternally glad that the Dodgers open with them at home, because I would puke all over myself if I was forced to watch the Giants having a celebration or something.

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The daily schedule on game days, via Dodgers press release:

Afternoon Games (1:05 p.m. starts):

Dodger BP: Until 11:15 a.m.
Visitor BP: 11:15 a.m.-12:15 p.m.
Visitor Infield: 12:20 p.m.-12:30 p.m.
Dodger Infield: 12:30 p.m.-12:40 p.m.

Night Games (7:05 p.m. starts):

Dodger BP: Until 5:15 p.m.
Visitor BP: 5:15 p.m.-6:15 p.m.
Visitor Infield: 6:20 p.m.-6:30 p.m.
Dodger Infield: 6:30 p.m.-6:40 p.m.

That’s not all that’s going on during this spring though, as on March 1 the World Baseball Classic will start with Australia playing Taiwan. The tournament is primarily relevant to Dodger fans because of players like Adrian Gonzalez (Mexico), Luis Cruz (Mexico), Hanley Ramirez (Dominican Republic), Ronald Belisario (Venezuela), Nick Punto (Italy), and Paco Rodriguez (Spain).

Not sure it affects Punto or A-Gon much, and it’s a miracle that Belisario is even in America at this time, but I doubt Cruz or Paco will benefit from not being in camp for their first Spring Training ever with real expectations, plus Hanley not ever playing shortstop the spring after playing horrible shortstop in 2012 is bad news (as has been said over and over).

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Additionally, via Roberto Baly of Vin Scully Is My Homeboy, here are the Dodgers home and away Spring Training caps.

Loving the home caps.

The 2013 projection for the Dodgers from Dan Szymborski‘s ZiPS system was released last week, and given that it’s probably my favorite forecasting tool, it’s worth a look to see how the team fared.

Forecasting is not a complete science, obviously, and I’ll address some of the potential pitfalls as we go along, but it’s better to use objective tools like these than the hopes/dreams of fans or the bitterness/wishes of haters.

To start us off, how does the team fare, generally speaking? A solid playoff contender, for sure, but a super team? Doesn’t seem likely.

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The Field Players

Despite all the hype over the recent acquisitions, the key cogs in this machine are still Clayton Kershaw and Matt Kemp. It’s a promising sign then, that Kemp projects at a 144 OPS+ and the system has confidence in him continuing to put up offensive numbers in the ~.900 OPS range. His defense in center still lags below average, but his bat more than makes up for it. His playing time projection has dropped due to his injury woes last season, and quite frankly, it’s hard to fault it for that. Regardless, he still figures to be the most valuable field player on the team.

Adrian Gonzalez is slated to be another bright spot, as ZiPS pegs him to bounceback a bit, though not as much as some want, clocking in at an ~.830 OPS/128 OPS+. That would still be his lowest OPS+ since 2008 (besides 2012, of course), but it’s a marked improvement considering his age and negatively trending skills. A-Gon compensates for that lagging bat a bit by putting up plus defense almost worth a win by itself. Hanley Ramirez factors in as yet another bounceback candidate, projecting at a 115 OPS+, which is an upgrade over last year’s 106 and is closer to his pre-2011 production. Defensively, even his horribad -8 run defensive rating is optimistic to me, as he was truly terrible with the glove last year. Given that I already wanted to barf seeing him trying to turn a double play in 2012, I wouldn’t be surprised at all to see him put up horrid defensive numbers after basically not playing the position all of spring.

Unfortunately, that’s where a lot of the offensive optimism ends. Luis Cruz checks in at 84 OPS+ (106 last year), which will anger many fans, but is completely reasonable given the track record. He remains valuable through plus defense, though given the sample size, there’s reason to be skeptical there as well. A.J. Ellis at 96 OPS+ (118) is another depressing but completely logical projection, as evidenced by everybody’s surprise in 2012 at his potent bat. Andre Ethier at 112 OPS+ (123) is hard to figure for me, because he has been consistently putting up ~120 OPS+ seasons even if it has come down from the ~130 OPS+ range two years ago. I suppose the projection system thinks he’ll get old in a hurry … or maybe it just thinks he’ll face an inordinately high amount of lefties. Mark Ellis at 81 OPS+ (93) shouldn’t be much of a surprise considering he’s 36 and put up an 80 OPS+ at Coors Field in 2011.

The last guy of the starters is Carl Crawford, who is the enigma of the 2013 season. He checks in at 104, which is notable because it’s basically his career OPS+ and it’s about what he did in limited time in 2012 over in Boston. That’s of particular note for me, because what he did in Boston in 2012 can be attributed to a mechanical fix that I pointed out in an article for Baseball Prospectus. Understandably, his playing time checks in low, but if he can produce like he did in 2012 but over a whole season, the Dodgers will be much better for it.

Overall, after fixing the playing time of A.J., adjusting Ethier’s offense up a bit, and adjusting Hanley’s defense down a bit, the starting lineup totaled about 22 WAR.

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The Bench & The Prospects

Assuming a bench of Tim Federowicz, Scott Van Slyke or Alex Castellanos, Jerry Hairston Jr., Nick Punto, and Skip Schumaker, we’re looking at around 3 WAR here after playing time is adjusted back to realistic bench levels. I’m guessing Alfredo Amezaga or Tony Gwynn Jr. work their way in somehow, but a five-man bench seems likely initially if the Dodgers can’t deal multiple pitchers before the season starts. Neither player would affect the WAR projection much though.

Honestly? I have to hope the Dodgers do something to improve the bench, because the current configuration looks rather mediocre, and the other options are keeping Juan Uribe and/or Elian Herrera. Yuck.

The good news is that Joc Pederson, T-Fed, SVS, and Castle are projected to be solid at the MLB level, though it sees Dee Gordon basically languishing behind.

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The Rotation

Clayton Kershaw is simply a beast, and he figures to check in with a 75 FIP-. This might seem high considering his 2011 and 2012 ERA- figures of 63 and 67, respectively, but when you consider that Felix Hernandez clocks in at 78 FIP- for 2013, you get the picture.

What might surprise is how close new acquisition Zack Greinke comes in behind him, as he figures to put up an FIP- of 81. Granted, he has always projected favorably, as his career FIP- is 80, while his career ERA- is 88, but even adjusting slightly for that, there’s a definite case there for the best 1-2 punch in the majors.

Unfortunately, this is where it gets murky, as Chad Billingsley has the stuff to be the #3, but if I were a betting man, I would bet his elbow implodes before July. He projects at 92 FIP-, which would put him around last year’s performance, which was his arguably his best season since 2008. However, given the nature of his injury and its history in the league, you can basically never rely on him to stay healthy again until he has Tommy John surgery.

Next in the pecking order are Josh Beckett, who comes in below-average at 103, and foreign import Hyun Jin Ryu, who comes in well below-average at 116. As mentioned before, the scouting reports for Beckett match this projection, as he’s no longer a front-line starter due to his decrease in velocity. However, if he can manage to learn to pitch a bit more, he still has the curve to perhaps slot in as a #3 more than a #4. Ryu is a case where I would take any projection with a mound of salt, because there’s hardly anything to base objective projections on. Personally, I don’t think Ryu has the stuff to be a #2, nor do I think he’ll be a #3 on a team with a $250 million payroll, but he should slot in comfortably in the back-end of the rotation for years. I would project something slightly below-average for 2013 and then hope for better.

The rotation is a strong point because it has both arguably the best 1-2 punch in the majors and depth, with Chris Capuano (108 FIP-) and Aaron Harang (114 FIP) presumably traded for upgrades (or maybe kept somehow?), and it checks in at about 17 WAR.

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The Bullpen & The Prospects

As of right now, I’m assuming a bullpen of Brandon League, Kenley Jansen, Ronald Belisario, Javy Guerra, Matt Guerrier, J.P. Howell, and Ted Lilly.

Jansen is the best of the bunch (63 FIP-) and League projects a distant second (92 FIP-), but Belisario has the most upside in these projections (101 FIP-). After that, Guerra, Guerrier, and Howell are all around replacement level. Lilly projects as a league-average pitcher, assuming he’s healthy, which would be a boon to a team that has a ticking time bomb in the rotation.

As far as prospects go, ZiPS thinks Chris Reed could be a replacement-level fill-in right now, but Zach Lee, Matt Magill, and Garrett Gould need more seasoning. And for all of you who have Stephen Fife wet dreams (yes, you’re out there), he projects at a 4.91 FIP, so keep it in your pants.

Speaking of replacement level, that especially applies to the Dodgers bullpen because of Shawn Tolleson, Scott Elbert, Steven Ames, and Paco Rodriguez, so the 4 WAR projection for this pen figures to be solid.

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Team Projection

A replacement-level team figures to win 43 games, and the team with the lowest amount of wins to get into the playoffs last year was the Cardinals at 88 wins, so 42 WAR puts you in the contender range and 45 WAR makes you viable, while 50 WAR will generally make a team a safe bet to be in the postseason. The Dodgers total 46 WAR, which puts them well within the playoff hunt: good but not great.

The Dodgers basically project neck-and-neck with the rival Giants, while the D-Backs lag behind a bit by maybe a half dozen wins or so, but they’re well within striking distance as well.

So make no mistake, the Dodgers recent spending habits did not make them an elite team, as the money simply duct-taped over both a flawed team and farm system depleted by Frank McCourt‘s ownership and Ned Colletti‘s questionable decisions. But that’s not to denigrate the job the new owners have done, as they turned the franchise into a legitimate playoff contender seemingly overnight, which is still saying a lot about what money can do.

Granted, “we gave you a team that has the chance to make the playoffs” is not what fans want to hear, but it’s an acceptable scenario as they lay the foundation to rebuild the franchise the correct way in their own minds. The 2013 projections might not reflect world-beaters like most seem to expect, but it’s a projection based on historical trends rather than hopes and dreams.

The 2013 Dodgers are indeed a team with a lot of upside, and if everything breaks correctly, they could very well end up being one of the best teams in the league, but they also carry a ton of inherent age and injury risk, which is why the projections come in understandably conservative. Either way, if nothing else, this team figures to be never boring.

As everybody knew going into the game, it was literally a must-win contest for the Dodgers, as the magic number of the Cardinals was one for the final playoff spot in the National League.

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Buster Posey started the scoring in the top of second inning with a homer off Chris Capuano.

A Luis Cruz RBI groundout knotted the game at one, but Joaquin Arias broke the tie with a homer in the top of the third.

Yes, seriously. Joaquin Arias.

Then Marco Scutaro extended their lead in the top of fifth inning with a two-RBI double.

A.J. Ellis, the miracle man, responded with a two-run homer to right-center in the bottom of the seventh to draw the Dodgers within one.

Two batters later, the turning point in the game happened, as Mark Ellis was gunned down by about eleventy billion feet at third base on a ball hit into the gap.

I mean … what the fuck?

Immediately after that, Shane Victorino tripled, and while I always say that baseball results don’t exist in a vacuum … wow it was tough to watch.

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In the ninth, as if to torture us further, Andre Ethier singled to lead off the inning against a lefty reliever, which is a miracle in itself.

So bring in Dee Gordon to pinch run and either let him try to steal second or just let A.J. hit, right? Nope, try to bunt with the guy who got the game to within one in the first place! Don Mattingly everybody! His 2012 season coup de grace.

I mock the move because even assuming a successful bunt, there’s a 5.3% drop in the chance the Dodgers win, and that comes without context. With context? A.J. is a quality overall hitter with .375 OBP skills and you’re going to bunt with him for either Elian Herrera or Bobby Abreu? Does this even make sense to traditional managers? Good lord.

Results-wise, sure enough, A.J. got buntfucked. Bunt attempts put him in a two-strike hole and he eventually struck out. As if to taunt us, Dee then stole second successfully, but Abreu flew out to left.

That set up M. Ellis for an attempt at redemption.

What else can you say?

The Dodgers are currently three games back of the Cardinals for the National League‘s final playoff spot. Los Angeles has a 4.5% chance of making the playoffs according to Cool Standings and a 5.6% chance according to Baseball Prospectus. Doesn’t take a math whiz to figure that 1-in-20 aren’t good odds, but gaining a game and a half over the past two days actually revived the on-life-support playoff hopes (1-2%) of the team.

Given that the Cardinals play the Nationals and the Reds to finish the season, two of the best teams in baseball, and the Dodgers have the Rockies and the Giants, anything does seem possible. It becomes absolutely imperative though that the Dodgers sweep the Rockies before going into their rivalry series, where seemingly anything could (and does) happen.

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For today’s game, the Dodgers send Clayton Kershaw to the mound against Jeff Francis, so it’s no surprise that they’re -290 betting favorites to win (74.4%), and AccuScore has the Dodgers winning at a 63% clip. The Cardinals sent Adam Wainwright to the hill against Edwin Jackson and are -135 betting favorites to win (57.4%), and AccuScore has their chances of prevailing at 56%.

While I still don’t believe the Dodgers should be risking the health of Kershaw and others for what amounts to a long shot, if nothing else the team has managed to make the end of this season exciting, for better or worse.

The most talked about news of late regarding the Dodgers is Ed Desser of The Hollywood Reporter estimating that the Dodgers television rights deal could be worth anywhere from $4.5 billion to $8.5 billion depending on the route ownership chooses to go.

Sign a Rights Deal

Most Major League Baseball teams license about 150 regular-season games a year for regional telecast. The Dodgers can extend the license arrangements with Fox and/or KCAL; make deals with other stations in the market; contract with the two Time Warner Cable sports networks that launch Oct. 1; or license a new entity or some combination of these alternatives. Given the competitive marketplace for Dodgers rights, we estimate average annual rights fees between $175 million and $225 million. Assuming a 20-year initial term — the length of a deal recently inked by the L.A. Angels of Anaheim — this low-risk arrangement could be worth $4.5 billion.

Start a Network

The Dodgers could start their own regional sports network. In this scenario, they would essentially “sell” the rights to themselves and compete with their jilted suitors. The team would control production, ad and sponsor sales integration, team-related support programming and distribution of its product. But it would also undertake far greater risk, effectively “doubling down” rather than outsourcing the risk. Several teams have successfully launched such networks (the New York Yankees/Brooklyn Nets YES Network, Boston Red Sox/Bruins NESN). However, others have been unsuccessful in such endeavors in the past decade (Minnesota Twins, Kansas City Royals). Because of the wide range of potential distribution outcomes, we estimate average annual revenue from as little as $125 million to as much as $425 million. Over 20 years, if everything were to go very well, this could be worth $8.5 billion, including rights, profits and equity value.

The Hybrid Model

The Angels, San Francisco Giants and Texas Rangers have partnered with Fox and Comcast regional sports network operators to license their rights and obtain a share of equity ownership. The risks of obtaining distribution are effectively mitigated, and a large entertainment company provides the financial backing. The Dodgers could make such a deal with Fox or TW Cable. They could also take on production, sales, financial and/or distribution partner(s) to gain greater control but with lower risk and upside. With predictable distribution, the difference in value turns on the ownership percentage the team might obtain, the rights fee and the network’s profitability. We estimate the annual value to the Dodgers of $225 million to $375 million. A 20-year deal could be worth $7.5 billion in rights, profits and equity.

That’s all well and good, but I see this being used by people as justification for spending any amount of money on any amount of players, and quite frankly, it’s a bit scary.

While I’m certainly as excited about having payroll freedom as any fan is, I don’t agree with the sudden attitude shift. It’s as if the mindset now boils down to, “OMG! TEAM HAS MONEY! SPEND IT ON ALL THE BEST FREE AGENTS! WHO CARES WHAT IT COSTS?!”

Sort of an ironic attitude to adopt as we complain about the Yankees and Red Sox and mock the Giants for Barry Zito‘s deal, no?

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Fandom aside, my primary concern lies in the luxury tax serving as a de facto salary cap.

The luxury tax remained relatively unchanged in the new CBA. The threshold level for the luxury tax will be $178 million in both 2012 and 2013 (the same as it was in 2011), and will be raised to $189 million from 2014-2016.

I talk about it being a salary cap because under the new CBA, it has become punitive enough that even the Yankees are looking to head under the luxury tax by 2014. The Red Sox apparently aren’t immune to it either, as they traded their starting shortstop for a situational lefty before the 2012 season in what now appears to be an effort to avoid the luxury tax.

Given that the Dodgers payroll for 2012 now stands at $138,083,695, and that the team has already committed $148,383,716 in 2013 and $93,875,000 in 2014, I don’t think throwing money around wildly as if the Dodgers now have no limits is exactly the wisest course of action for the franchise.

To put the payroll situation in perspective, the Dodgers are already one big ticket signing away from being on the edge of the luxury tax next year, so people suggesting that the team go out and dump money in front of Zack Greinke, Josh Hamilton, and everybody else on the market might want to pump the brakes a bit before the team ends up with as little payroll flexibility as they had before Frank McCourt got evicted.

I think Don Mattingly is probably the best manager the Dodgers have had since Tommy Lasorda, but his management of yesterday’s game against the Giants exposed what is probably his most glaring weakness.

—–

In the bottom of the seventh inning, with the Dodgers down one run, the team basically hit the lottery by somehow managing to get Juan Rivera and James Loney to not make outs.

That brought up Juan Uribe in what was clearly a traditional sacrifice situation, especially considering that Uribe sucks. However, while he does have 60 sacrifice bunts in his career over 5121 plate appearances, he’s had only one sacrifice bunt in the last three seasons over the course of 941 plate appearances. As such, it’s safe to say that he’s not exactly accustomed to bunting.

Uribe executing a successful sacrifice is anything but a foregone conclusion, then you add that you’re actually lessening your chances of scoring runs by bunting, and it’s just an overall terrible decision.

Mattingly though, of course, called for the bunt anyway, and it worked out SPLENDIDLY.

Then, IN THE VERY NEXT INNING, the Dodgers were put in the exact same situation after a Bobby Abreu walk and a Dee Gordon bunt single. With Mark Ellis coming up and Matt Kemp on deck, Mattingly elected to bunt with Ellis, effectively setting things up perfectly for the Giants to avoid pitching to Kemp.

Ellis was a fine option to bunt, as he has executed 12 of them in his previous three seasons, but even so, it again lessened the Dodgers chances of scoring runs.

Predictably, after the successful bunt, the Giants walked Kemp to load the bases and brought in Javier Lopez to pitch to Andre Ethier.

On cue, Ethier did that, just like it was out of a script.

It would have been sad if everybody didn’t see it coming, but judging by the reaction on Twitter, we all did see it coming.

Sigh.

—–

The only possible positive thing that could have come out of this is Mattingly learning his lesson and swearing to stop doing this in the future.

Did he?

“Neither one of those decisions I would look back and change,” Mattingly said after the game.

Welp, alrighty then.

“They have to pick between Matt and Andre, and if I can get Andre up there with the bases loaded, I’ll take it every day. He’s leading the league in RBI,” Mattingly said.

“I’m still giving two guys a chance, but I don’t even need a hit. I just need to get a ball in the air,” Mattingly said. “I have two guys that are basically leading the league in RBI and they have to take their pick.”

“I wouldn’t really change anything. We just have to execute, that’s all,” Mattingly said. “First and second nobody out we have to try to get runners over and get them in scoring position. With Mark [Ellis], I do it all the time.”

Yes, I know you do it all the time.

THAT’S THE PROBLEM

Hank Schulman went insane yesterday, translating a sequence of events and reactions from the Dodgers/Giants game in the most illogical way possible, basically so that they would fit his narrative.

Many fans here booed when Kemp misplayed Melky ball, didn’t reach Arias RBI single.If that’s what they were booing, they’re total idiots.

— Henry Schulman (@hankschulman) May 8, 2012

Honestly, I think Schulman has lost his fucking marbles. That’s my honest assessment.

—–

Dodgers fans didn’t boo Matt Kemp when he actually made the error on Melky Cabrera‘s single, as it was silent in the stadium, probably because they were worried that the Giants just put the tying run on.

Then Joaquin Arias singled to center and the tying run scored. Fans proceeded to boo.

Now, any reasonable person would conclude that Dodgers fans were booing the fact that their hated rival just tied the game at one in the sixth inning, but Schulman?

Oh no, my friend.

Now I’m getting Tweets saying fans weren’t booing Kemp. Just booing a Giants run. What a load of crapola. They were booing Kemp, period.

— Henry Schulman (@hankschulman) May 8, 2012

How in the flying fuck one concludes that fans were booing Kemp instead of a game-tying single is beyond me.

The hit was a clean single that landed about 15 feet short of Kemp and 5 feet to his left, meaning that either the fans were booing Kemp’s effort on a line drive single OR that the goddamn Giants just scored the game-tying run.

Hm…

So just to recap, the fans didn’t boo Dee Gordon when he tried to make three errors on a single play in the previous inning, and the fans didn’t boo Kemp when he actually made the error on the play Schulman was talking about. Yet, Dodgers fans apparently decided to bust out the boo birds on Kemp because of a clean single to center that nobody on this planet would have had a shot at catching.

Oh yeah, that certainly sounds more plausible than booing the Giants.

Maybe I’m wrong. Maybe fans were expressing deep-seated hatred for Joaquin Arias.

— Henry Schulman (@hankschulman) May 8, 2012

Dodgers fans were expressing a deep-seated hatred for the Giants scoring the tying run in the sixth inning. The Dodgers and Giants, they sort of have this rivalry and stuff.

You know, kind of like how Giants fans chant “BEAT L-A” in the third inning.

Now they’re chanting “MVP, MVP” for Kemp. These really are the worst fans in baseball.

— Henry Schulman (@hankschulman) May 8, 2012

To be clear, I’m not criticizing fans for MVP chant, but for doing it after booing Kemp on defense.

— Henry Schulman (@hankschulman) May 8, 2012

Jon Weisman already handled this ridiculousness from a different angle, but I wanted to comment from my perspective as well.

Not only has Schulman convinced himself that fans were booing Kemp instead of the fact that the Giants tied the game, he actually managed to convince himself that Dodgers fans did a complete 180 on their views of Kemp within an inning of play and suddenly decided that he was the MVP.

WE’RE AMAZING!

Maybe though, just fucking maybe, Dodgers fans actually love Kemp, hence the “M-V-P!” chant (which happens all the time), and they were actually booing the Giants as a team during the previous inning because it’s the Giants they hate.

MAYBE.