Tom Garfinkel, President and CEO of the Padres, spoke with season-ticket holders about the Zack Greinke/Carlos Quentin brawl, and he placed the blame on Greinke for the incident.

While somewhat deluded, it’s not all that surprising. However, also included on the tape that Jeff Passan of Yahoo! Sports acquired is audio of him essentially mocking Greinke (who has social anxiety disorder) as autistic.

“He threw at him on purpose, OK?” Garfinkel told an estimated crowd of 40 or 50 at Petco Park on Friday, a day after the fight. “That’s what happened. They can say 3-and-2 count, 2-1 game, no one does that. Zack Greinke is a different kind of guy. Anyone seen ‘Rain Man’? He’s a very smart guy.”

What a class act.

The ignorance of equating autism and anxiety is astounding, and it speaks to the general notion that anybody not considered “normal” between the ears can be generalized with a catch-all “head case” pejorative.

I expect as much from players and managers, but from the President and CEO? Disgusting. One would think they would at least know better.

Garfinkel went on to apologize to Stan Kasten and Greinke … but not really:

“I was emotional the day after the game and regrettably, while defending our player, I said some things I shouldn’t have, especially as it relates to Zack Greinke,” Garfinkel told Yahoo! Sports. “I was out of line and I apologize.

The thing is though, he doesn’t care. Remember, this was a private meeting with a group of season-ticket holders, so he only cares that he got caught.

I mean, he said as much himself:

“This is my opinion, and I can’t say it publicly,” Garfinkel told the crowd, “but I guess this is public, so please don’t tweet it out. We’re in the trust tree here, in the nest.

In his apology, he doesn’t specifically address what was wrong about his rant. Rather, he just gives a stock ‘sorry’ because he’s in damage control mode.

As if to pile on with his ignorance, he goes on to literally make up justifications for Quentin charging the mound, blames Greinke for getting hurt, and makes a comment in opposition to what Quentin has said to the media.

“Obviously, I don’t condone fighting and I wish it wouldn’t have happened. You never want to see any player get hurt.”

“I don’t know about you guys, but I’m 6-3, 225,” Garfinkel told the ticket holders. “If Carlos Quentin was running at me, I would not put my shoulder down.”

I got into a few arguments over this logic on Twitter, but to me, arguing this is completely asinine. Basically, he’s criticizing how Greinke choose to defend himself.

Why … why is the person being attacked responsible for the damage done to him?

“I mean, yeah, he got punched in the face. But your honor, why didn’t the victim turn his head away to lessen the damage?”

Sweet argument.

Then there’s this point lie he told, which Passan called him on:

Garfinkel’s certainty about the purpose of the pitch stemmed from information he received about Greinke’s predilection to avoid pitching inside as well as the belief in the Padres’ front office that the count and situation didn’t necessarily absolve him from intentionally hitting Quentin. Garfinkel told the crowd he saw a heat map, which highlights the locations a pitcher has targeted in the past, and that it showed over the last three years Greinke had not thrown a single pitch on a 3-2 count to right-handed hitters on the inner half of the plate.

The heat map was misleading. PITCHf/x data provided by Baseball Prospectus’ Dan Brooks and Harry Pavlidis shows of the 219 full-count pitches Greinke threw to right-handers from 2010-2012, 81 were on the inner half of the plate. While the 37 percent inside rate is among the bottom one-third among starting pitchers, the data shows, Greinke is nowhere near the unlikeliest to throw there on full counts – and had gone there plenty of times, both in and out of the strike zone, in recent years.

Welp, so much for that.

Also amusing was this part of the speech, in which he blames Greinke for not starting a dialogue with Quentin:

Greinke also knew the potential consequences of hitting Quentin, Garfinkel told the crowd. A threat for retribution had been relayed to him following the second time he plunked Quentin with a pitch, in 2009.

“When Zack Greinke threw at his head a couple times, [Quentin] let it be known through teammates and intermediaries and others that if he does that again, he’s going to have a problem,” Garfinkel said. “This was a couple years ago. So Zack was very aware of that and Zack never apologized and never told him, ‘Hey, I didn’t mean to throw at you. It got away from me.’ Whatever. This was a couple years ago. He knew darn well that was going [to happen].”

Let me get this straight, Tom. You insult the guy for being “Rain Man“, but you expect the same person, who actually has social anxiety disorder, to open up a dialogue with a rival who’s pissed at him?

Again, sound logic. Seems like Tom really thought this one through.

Perhaps dumbest of all, though, is his admission that neither the organization nor Quentin knows what Greinke said to Quentin prior to him charging the mound:

Following the brawl and his ejection, Quentin insinuated that Greinke had said something to him, prompting him to charge the mound, and that it “was the final straw.” Garfinkel said neither he nor Quentin is certain of what Greinke said, and that even some people in the Padres’ baseball-operations department who can read lips were unsure.

“We don’t know what he said,” Garfinkel said. “I asked Carlos. He doesn’t know what he said. I do know that, I mean, everybody saw the tape. Everybody saw what happened. He didn’t say, ‘I’m sorry, I didn’t mean to hit you.’ He threw his glove down, stuck his chest out.”

1) He threw his glove down after Quentin had started charging him. You have to be seriously delusional to dispute this … which is why he’s disputing it.

2)

Carlos Quentin to media: “I charged Greinke because of what he said to me.” Padres CEO to fans: “Carlos doesn’t know what Greinke said.” OK.

— Molly Knight (@molly_knight) April 18, 2013

Oops.

Way to call your own player’s truthfulness into question.

—–

So not only did Garfinkel represent the Padres poorly by showing off his ignorance, lack of rationality, and by outright lying, but he also indirectly called Quentin a liar by revealing that nobody has any idea what Greinke said, despite that being used as justification for fighting him.

So if there was any doubt that all of this was nothing more than the result of a Quentin temper tantrum (he once ended his own season with one), and that Quentin’s excuses for the incident after the fact are all baloney, then there shouldn’t be anymore. None of them knows what happened, and they can’t even get their stories straight, but they’ll go to the media saying they know the reason stuff went down, they’ll take offensive jabs at the opposition, and they’ll lie to their fanbase to justify it all.

Pathetic.

The Zack Greinke/Carlos Quentin/Dodgers/Padres debacle led to a lot of discussion and a couple of suspensions/fines: one for Quentin and one for Jerry Hairston Jr.

While Zack Greinke is expected to miss eight weeks after surgery to repair his broken left collarbone, Carlos Quentin of the Padres will miss eight games.

Jerry Hairston, who ran toward the Padres dugout after the initial melee died down, was suspended for one game.

Both Quentin and Hairston were fined an undisclosed amount, and both are appealing their suspensions. Both are starting in left field for their respective teams Friday night. Neither Greinke nor Matt Kemp, the other two players ejected, will be suspended.

For the best interests of both teams, MLB suggested to Quentin that he drop the appeal, and it was reported that he would. Yesterday, he did exactly that, and he will be suspended during the upcoming series.

—–

Tim Federowicz, as expected, was optioned to AAA to clear room on the 25-man roster for the returning Chad Billingsley.

“It’s tough. It’s one of those things as a young player. I have options left, and that’s just the way it is,” Federowicz said before Tuesday’s game. “You need some protection at the catchers spot if someone were to get hurt. We only had two on the roster, so they figured they had to do something.”

Ramon Hernandez will now serve as A.J. Ellis‘ backup, but give me Timmy every day of the week and twice on Sundays.

—–

Shawn Tolleson was recalled from AAA to replace the injured Greinke.

His stay on the team depends on what the Dodgers decide to do with Ted Lilly…

…and speaking of the devil, Lilly refused an assignment to continue rehabbing in the minors.

The Dodgers on Saturday asked Lilly to continue his Minor League rehab assignment with two more starts and he declined. He can’t be sent out without his permission and he declared himself healthy and ready to pitch in the Major Leagues.

The club disagrees.

“We laid out a plan and, obviously, he just didn’t like the plan,” said manager Don Mattingly, who put Chris Capuano in the starting rotation, and not Lilly, to replace the injured Zack Greinke. “From a baseball standpoint, we felt he wasn’t quite ready for what we want him to do, to start.”

“We laid out a plan and Teddy doesn’t want to be part of the plan. It’s out of my hands. We didn’t feel he was ready to pitch at the Major League level. For me, it’s a baseball decision. It’s nothing personal in any way, shape or form. We’re giving him our baseball thoughts, what we think is best for him and the team.”

In two rehab starts between the A+ and AAA levels, Lilly has a 7.50 ERA in 12 innings. Combine that with a horrible Spring Training and it’s hard to disagree with the team here.

But besides his performance why do they want to keep him in the minors, right? Well, Chris Capuano will make the start Tuesday in place of the injured Greinke.

Capuano has pitched two games in relief, including Thursday night directly following Greinke after he broke his left collarbone in a brawl against the Padres. In 2⅔ innings, Capuano allowed only two hits, a walk, and no runs, with four strikeouts. Capuano was 12-12 with a 3.72 ERA in 33 starts for the Dodgers in 2012.

So basically there’s no room in the rotation for Lilly, and Capuano is the right choice here.

—–

The Dodgers signed first baseman Sean Burroughs to a minor-league deal. Frankly, it was surprising to find out he was even still in baseball.

Just minor-league depth though.

=====

Greg Zakwin is the founder of the site Plaschke Thy Sweater Is Argyle. Follow him on Twitter @ArgyledPlaschke.

MLB doesn’t want to see things get ugly between the Dodgers and the Padres on Monday, and Bill Center of the San Diego Union-Tribune reports that the league will try to make their ruling on the matter by the time the series rolls around.

Major League Baseball is speeding up Carlos Quentin’s appeal of his eight-game suspension — a suspension that stems from his recent dust-up with Dodgers right-hander Zack Greinke — so that he can begin serving his time before his Padres and those same Dodgers meet in Los Angeles on Monday. Bill Center of the San Diego Union-Tribune reports that a ruling on Quentin’s appeal could come as soon as Sunday.

“Major League Baseball is very aware of the situation,” a league source told Center on Saturday. “I think everyone would like to see a little time between the incident and Quentin’s next appearance at Dodger Stadium.”

Given all that’s transpired, it’s probably for the best. To be frank, the last thing this team needs with Zack Greinke out is for another pitcher to get suspended or hurt fighting meaningless grudges with a last place team (Clayton Kershaw, that’s you).

——

The thing about this that irks me though, is that Carlos Quentin charging the mound has created a situation exactly like Greinke speculated Quentin may have been trying to accomplish, where now Dodger pitchers can’t go inside on him. Not because they’re intimidated by him, but because they risk getting thrown out or suspended by the MLB.

For most batters, that wouldn’t be an issue. For Quentin? It absolutely is. He’s been hit 116 times in 2801 career plate appearances, or about 4.1% of the time. Since he averages around four plate appearances a game and there’s three games in the upcoming series, it gives him 12 chances to get hit. The likelihood that he would get hit in the upcoming Dodgers/Padres series AT LEAST once is 39.5%. Skipping this upcoming series, assuming he serves a suspension during it, the teams meet seven more times in 2013, which comes out to a 69.0% chance he gets hit again by the Dodgers this year with no intent (assuming he plays normally, of course).

That is to say that even if the Dodger pitchers had zero interest in any revenge plunking, there’s actually a pretty good chance he would get hit at some point anyway, and the same holds for any future meetings. So not only did he get to take Greinke out of that game, and out of the rotation for two months, but now he’s made himself bulletproof as far as worrying about diving over the plate against the Dodgers in future match-ups.

Justice.

C.J. Nitkowski, for reasons unknown, decided to inject himself into the Zack Greinke/Carlos Quentin/Dodgers/Padres brawl discussion, basically saying that Quentin doesn’t hang over the plate any more than Matt Kemp does.

Carlos Quentin stands on top of the plate, hangs over the strike zone? You sure about that? twitter.com/CJNitkowski/st…

— CJ Nitkowski (@CJNitkowski) April 12, 2013

Kemp, same camera, same angle. twitter.com/CJNitkowski/st…

— CJ Nitkowski (@CJNitkowski) April 12, 2013

Damning screencaps, right? Yeah, a lot of people seemed to think so, hence this response, because they both conveniently only show their setups and don’t show why pitchers complain about Quentin diving over the plate and why he gets hit so much.

I find it interesting that he clearly appears to be misleading his followers here, because it’s obvious that the point of contention is how they end up after footstrike, not how they setup. I mean, who cares how a guy sets up if he’s on top of the plate when the ball is about to cross it.

Anyway, so what’s up with the differing reputations of Quentin and Kemp if we’re to believe what the screencaps show, right?

Ah right, it’s because Kemp actually tends to pull out and away from the plate after his setup, while Quentin … well … he dives in after his setup, sort of like everybody has been saying.

That’s both of them at footstrike, where it actually matters in terms of getting out of the way of being hit.

It sort of sucks that both are wearing dark undershirts, because it’s hard to tell exactly where their elbows are (Quentin’s is basically over the inside corner), but it’s still clear to see why Quentin would get hit more than Kemp.

Besides the fact that it’s harder to rotate out of the way when you dive towards the plate, thus making it harder to avoid being HBP (it’s why he can’t simply move like NotGraphs wants), Kemp has a ton more room for a pitcher to miss inside before even coming close to hitting him. With Quentin, if you miss anywhere in and above the belt, he’s at risk to take it off his forearm. You know, sort of like he did twice in this series. And 100+ other times over his career.

To be frank, I feel stupid for even having to write this post, since a player doesn’t have one of the highest HBP rates ever for no reason, but people seem to actually be buying into this garbage, and Jayson Stark actually retweeted it as “interesting”, so it deserved an explanation.

So in case you were under a rock yesterday, Zack Greinke has a broken collarbone and is out for a while, essentially because Carlos Quentin is an idiot.

As one would imagine, the reactions to what went down from the Dodgers dugout, media, and bloggers weren’t the most pleasant towards Quentin.

=====

Don Mattingly called him an idiot and said he should be suspended for however long Greinke is out.

“I don’t understand it either. We’re in a 2-1 game, and on a 3-2 pitch to guy I saw on the board set a record for the Padres by getting hit, a guy that basically dives into the plate. In a 2-1 game we’re trying to hit him 3-2? It’s just stupid, is what it is,” said manager Don Mattingly. “He should not play a game until Greinke can throw a pitch. If he plays before Greinke pitches, something is wrong.”

“He caused the whole thing,” Mattingly said of Quentin. “Nothing happens if you go to first base like in baseball you know you do, because you know he’s not throwing at you 3-2, in a 2-1 game. That’s zero understanding of the game of baseball.”

I don’t disagree.

—–

Matt Kemp went the extra mile to try and find out why Quentin charged the mound.

Kemp and Quentin were nose-to-nose before Richard stepped in. Kemp kept asking Quentin why he did it.

Matt Kemp confronted Carlos Quentin as the 2 were leaving Petco Park. Clayton Richard, cops, security broke it up.

Pretty stupid when you think about it. Last thing the team needs is for him to get hurt and/or suspended for dealing with that asshole.

While on the field though, Kemp lost it after he heard about Greinke being hurt.

Mattingly on Matt Kemp, one of three ejected: “once he knew Zack was hurt, he lost it

That reaction is more understandable to me.

—–

A.J. Ellis said that even a Padres player thought it was bullshit.

A.J. Ellis said #Padres players apologized for Quentin’s actions. “It’s not right, it’s not right,” he said one player told him.

Amusing that people are defending Quentin when people on his own team don’t even agree … off the record, of course.

—–

Speaking of the Padres, in a move of sheer class, Jerry Hairston Jr. relays that the reason he ran over to the Padres dugout, after things had seemingly settled a bit, was to confront a player making fun of the injured Greinke.

“It’s terrible. It’s unacceptable, and I lost it. If a guy’s going to hit you, he’s going to hit you on the very first pitch. This is The Show, you don’t do that stuff. My teammate now has a broken f—ing collarbone, because he hit you on a 3-2 pitch?” Hairston said. “I don’t know Carlos at all, I really don’t, but he was wrong.”

Hairston was ejected for going after one of the Padres after the initial melee had died down.

“I was playing peacemaker, just trying to break it up. Obviously Zack was hurt. One of the guys was chirping the whole time, making fun of him for having the hurt shoulder, broken collarbone, or whatever,” Hairston said.

Losing Zack stings, but we ll pick each other up. Zacks like my little brother. Saw someone making fun of him being injured. Not cool!!

Hairston said it wasn’t Yonder Alonso, and I’ve heard it was John Baker, which would make perfect sense since he’s a backup catcher nobody that will never have to answer for running his mouth. Who knows what the truth is, but it would explain why Hairston lost it.

=====

As far Quentin goes, his excuses after the game were about as irrational as you’d expect.

Quentin blames Greinke for history of HBP. Quentin said he has led league in HBP 2 years running and has never charged mound in MLB.

Translation: “I always lead the league in being hit, but never charge the mound. I did this time though! Why? His fault! But I won’t tell you why.”

Quentin, asked if any remorse: “I did what I did. It could have been avoided.”

Yeah, by you not charging the mound.

Look, I mentioned this in the other post, but Quentin gets hit a lot because of how he dives into the plate, so him getting hit multiple times by pitchers he faced a ton shouldn’t be surprising. In fact, if getting hit by Greinke often was his rationale for being upset, then Jon Weisman found a list of players Quentin should have been raging at before tonight:

The short list of pitchers who clearly have it in for Carlos Quentin: twitter.com/jonweisman/sta…

— Jon Weisman (@jonweisman) April 12, 2013

It’s a long list for a reason, put it that way.

So, hear my plea Carlos Quentin: FUCKING MOVE!

Move out of the way. Just don’t be in that place when the pitch comes at you. I know some plunkings are unavoidable. But surely you can cut down on a lot of them. Duck, or spin away, or bend backward or something. Just fucking move. Take your walk the traditional way.

A post written in jest, but prophetic nevertheless.

—–

For his part, Greinke said he didn’t hit Quentin on purpose but knows Quentin thinks he did.

“The only thing I’ll say about that is that I’ve never hit him on purpose,” Greinke said. “He always seems to think I hit him on purpose, but that’s not the case.”

It was the third time in 31 career plate appearances that Greinke hit Quentin. But he is hardly alone in that regard, as Quentin leads the majors with 97 HBP since the beginning of 2008.

“I thought it was a ploy to get people to not throw inside to him, so he can lean out away,” Greinke said. “I don’t know anyone who has hit him on purpose.”

Quentin maintained Greinke hit him intentionally.

“Myself and Greinke have a history, it dates back to a few years ago. You guys could look it up. It’s documented. It’s unfortunate about the situation. It could have been avoided. You can ask Zack about that,” Quentin said. “I can tell you I’ve never responded in that fashion before.”

Speaking of Quentin complaining about getting hit while diving over the plate, Giants pitcher Ryan Vogelsong gave a quote last year when Quentin got mad at him for throwing inside that basically sums Quentin’s attitude up.

A reminder after taking in the brawl last night between the Dodgers and Padres after Zack Greinke hit Carlos Quentin, who then charged the pitcher and broke his collarbone: Last Aug. 19 in San Diego, Ryan Vogelsong had a beef with Quentin after hitting him with a pitch, and Clayton Richard retaliating by hitting Brandon Belt.

Vogelsong fumed after the game that Quentin crowds the plate and should not react the way he does.

“Go look at the video,” Vogelsong fumed. “It was a two-seamer that ran of the plate. That guy hammers balls over the plate and he gets pissed when you throw the ball inside. It doesn’t make sense. Every time you hit a guy in this game now they think you did it on purpose. It’s tired.”

Sounds familiar.

—–

As far as the accusation that Greinke was trying to instigate a fight:

Zack Greinke was asked if he wanted to fight Carlos Quentin. “I can’t remember the last time I wanted to get in a fight with someone.”

I think most would agree that he seems like the last person who would want to start anything physical.

=====

As for the opposing side, Padres fans are handling this extremely classy … hahahaha no.

This doesn’t even scratch the surface of it, but just to give you a taste:

*Click To Enlarge*

*Click To Enlarge*

*Click To Enlarge*

My take: you never want to see a player charging the mound, but it’s not like it’s never happened before. (1/2)

— Nathan Veale (@The_NV) April 12, 2013

Greinke intentionally moved his body into harm’s way and charged at Quentin. He didn’t have to. That’s his own fault. (2/2)

— Nathan Veale (@The_NV) April 12, 2013

Quentin may have started it, but Greinke’s response was “challenge accepted.” You get what you ask for in this world.

— Nathan Veale (@The_NV) April 12, 2013

Remember guys, Quentin started it, we can all agree on that, but once Quentin started walking toward Greinke and then charged, Greinke didn’t run away, therefore, any injury suffered is HIS fault.

I’d hate for that guy to be in charge of the law. If you got assaulted on the street, his advice would be to not fight back or else you deserve everything that happens to you.

Logic.

=====

Anyway, reading through my Twitter timeline, seems like the consensus among even non-Dodger fans is “fuck Quentin”, so in conclusion:

Going into the bottom of the sixth inning, the Dodgers held a 2-1 lead over the Padres, and Zack Greinke was rolling along. Unfortunately, to lead off the inning, he hit Carlos Quentin with a 3-2 pitch.

Crappy situation to put the lead-off man on, obviously, but no big deal apart from that, except:

So Quentin is a goddamn idiot.

Nobody is dumb enough to think Greinke did that intentionally when he’s clinging onto a lead and rolling along, except Quentin, because apparently he’s still hanging on to something that happened FOUR YEARS AGO between the White Sox and Royals.

An instance between Carlos Quentin and Greinke with one out in the fourth stood out as the game’s only real fireworks, and even this uprising didn’t amount to much. Quentin was hit squarely in the back by a Greinke pitch and immediately took a couple of steps toward the mound.

Home-plate umpire Bill Hohn stepped in front of Quentin and catcher Miguel Olivo quickly restrained the slugger. Television broadcasts showed Quentin telling Olivo that he was all right, and Quentin moved down to first base.

By Greinke’s estimation, it was a first-inning pitch that got away and almost hit Quentin in the head causing the residual anger three innings later.

“He had a reason for [being upset],” said Greinke of Quentin. “Any time you throw it that high, it’s justified. You’ve got to be better than that and not pitch like that. You’re going to make mistakes, but the last thing you want to do is hit someone where it could seriously hurt them. As soon as I let go of it, I was scared for him.”

“Well, everybody that gets hit gets upset, especially when you aren’t swinging the bat well and all of a sudden you get hit,” Guillen said. “That’s part of the game. Carlos is a guy who is going to get hit a lot because he stands on top of the plate. I don’t think it was intentional.”

So at the time, Greinke was understanding about Quentin’s feelings, but even Quentin’s own manager, Ozzie Guillen, said he thought it wasn’t intentional.

Then there’s this fact:

One thing to consider: If Greinke had it out for Quentin, why wait? After HBP on April 8, 2009, they faced each other 15 times from ’09-’10.

— Jeff Passan (@JeffPassan) April 13, 2013

So there’s that.

If this was a vendetta on Greinke’s part, the argument is that he’s been holding this in for four years to get back at Quentin for … what reason now?

Ugh.

—–

And about Quentin crowding the plate? Yeah, he does it, and he gets hit A LOT by everybody.

There is one White Sox player who threatens to be the best ever at what he does: Carlos Quentin. That’s right, in more than 2,200 plate appearances, Quentin is already threatening the top of a certain leaderboard.

Yes. Carlos Quentin just might be the best hit-by-pitcher of all time. Since 2000, no one has managed to be hit in as many as four games in a row. Quentin was once hit in six games in a row, and is second on that same list with three straight earlier this month.

Quentin gets hit a lot, and by everybody, so for him to make this his stand is ridiculous.

He doesn’t even have good reason to have issue with Greinke specifically:

Tweet from Oney Guillen: “greinke has hit carlos many many times … told me long long time ago. if he does it again im going for him.”

— Jon Morosi (@jonmorosi) April 12, 2013

@jay_jaffe Exactly. Blackburn, Lester and Bedard had done so even more often, 14 others in addition to Greinke had hit him twice.

— Jon Morosi (@jonmorosi) April 12, 2013

So despite Oney Guillen contradicting his own dad, being an idiot, and generally exaggerating, he confirms that Quentin has a vendetta against Greinke, not vice versa, despite the fact that he’s been hit twice or more by an awful lot of pitchers.

Look, if you’re going to crowd the plate in an attempt to take a side of it away from the pitcher and for better coverage, accept the consequences. You didn’t see Craig Biggio whining about it and throwing temper tantrums. It’s part of the deal.

The worst part though is that Greinke left the field with trainer Sue Falsone, meaning Quentin’s dumbass, illogical temper tantrum may have caused an injury.

Furthermore, the Dodgers basically have no recourse here, because the Padres suck:

Worst part is there’s no way to retaliate against this what do you do hit Will Venable?

— Andrew Grant (@realandrewgrant) April 12, 2013

As you know, I’m not one for throwing at guys as retaliation, but how are the Dodgers supposed to get justice for an opposing player basically trying to physically assault one of their own players? Trust MLB to do the right thing and suspend him for as many games as Greinke is out? Please, the team will never get the justice they want from them.

So now we all have to wait and hope that nothing is seriously wrong with Greinke, and all of this is because Quentin acted like a little child. And because he’s a fucking idiot.

—–

Update

BREAKING: Zack Greinke suffered a fractured left collarbone.

— Los Angeles Dodgers (@Dodgers) April 12, 2013

Welp, there’s that.

Suspend him for three months.

—–

Matt Kemp thinks the whole situation is bullshit.

Baseball fans love to talk about clutch plays and clutch players, and Dodgers fans are no exception, but like with a pitcher’s best and worst pitches, there tends to be a lack of evidence presented. As such, I decided to find some basis for clutch plays and clutch players, courtesy of the WPA and Clutch statistics.

WPA

Most sabermetric statistics are context neutral — they do not consider the situation of a particular event or how some plays are more crucial to a win than others. While wOBA rates all home runs as equal, we know intuitively that a home run in the third inning of a blowout is less important to that win than a home run in the bottom of the ninth inning of a close game. Win Probability Added (WPA) captures this difference by measuring how individual players affect their team’s win expectancy on a per-play basis.

Clutch

In the words of David Appelman, this calculation measures, “…how much better or worse a player does in high leverage situations than he would have done in a context neutral environment.” It also compares a player against himself, so a player who hits .300 in high leverage situations when he’s an overall .300 hitter is not considered clutch.

So that’s the foundation for this post, and since that’s now been established, let’s get on with it, shall we?

As always, visuals have been provided because, let’s be honest, everything is better with visuals.

—–

I feel like it’s necessary to point out that none of this is predictive of the future or telling of the past. It’s a post about stuff that happened in 2012. That’s all.

In other words, please don’t link back to this while saying, “LOOK! THIS DUDE IS SO CLUTCH, BRO!” No.

—–

Top Five Clutchiest McClutchington Outs Of 2012

1. Kenley Jansen – 46.8%

The Dodgers were clinging onto an 8-7 lead with one down in the bottom of the ninth and runners on first and third. At this point, you’d almost be happy with a tied game.

One Jason Kubel swing later and it was a win instead.

2. Javy Guerra – 31.6%

Tied at 4-4 in the top of the ninth inning, the Padres got runners on first and second with nobody out. Not looking good for the Dodgers.

But then the impossible happened and … well … you can see it for yourself.

3. Ronald Belisario – 27.5%

Tied at two in the bottom of the eighth inning and facing a bases loaded jam with one out, Ronald Belisario gets out of it thanks to what basically amounts to luck.

Matt Holliday smashed a liner, but it was right at Mark Ellis, who doubled up the runner at second.

4. Kenley Jansen – 24.7%

With runners on second and third in the top of the ninth and one down, the Dodgers are clinging to a 6-5 lead when Kenley Jansen induces a harmless infield pop-up.

5. Brandon League – 20.0%

Tied at three with one down in the bottom of the tenth and a runner on third, Brandon League keeps him there by inducing a strikeout.

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It shouldn’t be a surprise to anybody that the most clutch plays of the season all went to relievers.

That said, I am shocked that Javy Guerra‘s play wasn’t tops on this list, since it’s almost never that you induce three outs on one pitch.

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Top Five Clutchiest Dodgers Of 2012 – Ball Thrower Division

1. Brandon League – 0.70
2. Josh Lindblom – 0.47
3. Nate Eovaldi – 0.34
4. Shawn Tolleson – 0.34
5. Stephen Fife – 0.32

MLB.com: So there was a little blowup in the clubhouse after Tuesday night’s loss here. We heard that was you.

Colletti: I had a passionate exchange in the coach’s room.

MLB.com: What was the message?

Colletti: Were you invited?

MLB.com: No, but I wish I was.

Colletti: It was just a bit of an evaluation.

Two hours later, T.J. Simers of the Los Angeles Times released similar information through an article of his own.

The other night after the Dodgers lost to the Padres, while the media met with Manager Don Mattingly, screaming could be heard from the nearby coaches’ dressing room.

“Passionate” screaming? General Manager Ned Colletti says with a smirk when asked if it was he.

“Yes, I had a passionate discussion with the staff, and then I had another one with a [softer] voice with Donnie. I think every once in a while you just need to recalibrate.”

Say what you want about Colletti (and I have), but he’s never given the impression of being a screaming madman type. Quite the opposite, really. So for this to happen and for these reports to go public, something really must have set him off on that particular day after the game.

While us fans probably shouldn’t overreact to it and jump to the conclusion that there’s some type of breakdown in the front office and/or clubhouse, I do feel it’s okay to wonder what exactly triggered this.

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In the top of the ninth in that game, a sequence occurred that ultimately led to the Dodgers losing by a run despite trailing by a one score with nobody out and a runner on second. When the game got to that point, Dee Gordon pinch-ran for A.J. Ellis on second, and everybody knows that Dee has enough speed to make that base represent scoring position on almost any hit. Despite that move, Mattingly opted to pinch-hit with Nick Punto and bunt Dee over to third. After Mark Ellis walked to put runners on first and third, Andre Ethier and Matt Kemp went down to end the game.

Mattingly’s decision to bunt Gordon to third increased the chances of the Dodgers scoring in that inning, but decreased their chances of winning by 3-5%. So was that the reason for the blowup? Maybe, but I doubt it. Mattingly makes moves like that all the time, so if it was going to be an issue, one would think this would have come up way sooner than September. Honestly, it’s considered more of a sin by us saber-oriented fans and bloggers than to the front office.

As such, perhaps it was just the culmination of a frustrating season? The team is having general struggles, and that was the day they fell 4.5 games back in the race for the final playoff spot. Odds are that it was probably related to those difficulties, just because I don’t think the GM goes down to rant to the field staff based on single game decisions with any type of regularity.

Then again, maybe it had something to do with how Andre Ethier was used. In the top of the eighth inning, Ethier was allowed to hit against a lefty. Not a big deal, right? Happens all the time. I didn’t think much of it either, but a recent story on the Dodgers official site basically gets the team to admit that the people in charge are having internal discussions about sitting him against lefties.

Another season is almost in the books and the Dodgers are once again mystified by outfielder Andre Ethier’s inability to hit left-handed pitching anywhere near as successfully as he does against right-handers.

“It’s something we seriously have to look at as far as how we approach it. I think he can hit left-handers. The numbers say maybe he can’t and we have to go a different route. Me believing a guy can do something and him doing it are two different things.”

Nothing concrete there to say it was the reason, but you have to read between the lines a little. The issue has obviously been an internal discussion for a while and, perhaps when combined with the status of the team in the standings, it just finally boiled over. In this case, given Mattingly’s consistent stance that Ethier can indeed hit lefties, Colletti might have even be taking the sabermetric position on this one.

Ned Colletti? Statistics over guts? What is this madness?! Look at what Don Mattingly has driven our precious GM to.

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Naturally, this is all speculation, but given the justifiably raised expectations of the team and their inability to perform despite the numerous acquisitions, one would think journalists would have made more of an effort to shed light on the situation than to just allow Colletti to get off with dodging the question.

That’s especially true given that the front office and ownership has spent all September telling fans that there’s always next year, yet their actions in handling players and making transactions have told a very different tale.

Seems to me that this would warrant further investigation than to be a throw-in question during a media session. Given that people covering the Dodgers documented and opined about every single little thing Matt Kemp did wrong in 2010 (to give an example), one would think the GM and coaches blowing up at each other as the team collapses in September would be worthy of an investigation.

I know I’d like to hear more about what transpired.

In case you missed it last night, this is how the Dodgers lost, and it’s … failtacular. That’s the only way I can describe it.

There’s so much to observe in that one GIF/play that it was hard to absorb at the time. Dodgers fans were left asking themselves “What the fuck just happened?” even hours after the game was over.

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So what were the fails?

1) Kenley Jansen failed by not calling time after stepping off the mound to kick dirt off his shoes.

2) Kenley Jansen failed by completely turning his back on Everth Cabrera and ignoring him while cleaning his shoes.

At least he owned up to his mistakes after the game.

Jansen: “Dirt got stuck on my shoe. I can’t pitch like that. I forgot to call timeout.” #Dodgers

— Jimmy Bramlett (@JimmyBramlett) July 15, 2012

3) Kenley Jansen failed by making a poor throw home.

4) Greg Gibson failed by being out of position to make the call at home.

5) Greg Gibson failed for punching out the runner at home when the ball was thrown to the backstop.

The confusing call affected the run of play.

More Jansen: “I saw the umpire call him out. I froze from there and tried to go back into it.” #Dodgers

— Jimmy Bramlett (@JimmyBramlett) July 15, 2012

6) A.J. Ellis failed by forgetting to catch the ball first and apply the tag second.

7) A.J. Ellis failed by not going after the ball immediately, instead seemingly pausing to admire the view of the backstop for a split second before reacting.

8) Kenley Jansen failed by not covering home plate, allowing Will Venable to score the winning run.

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If any of those things are different, the play probably never happens the way it does, which makes it quite remarkable, all things considered.

The part that gets me most though is that it was a pretty stupid play by Everth Cabrera. I mean the winning run is on second with two outs and he basically gambled that the first three things or so on the fail list would happen. Because as the umpire told all of us loud and clear, a decent throw gets him and ends the game.

Anyway, you can argue with a few of those fails if you want, whatever, but it was just a terrible combination of execution by just about everybody involved in the play except for Will Venable, who did amazing work to score.

Adam Kennedy is batting fifth (yes, fifth) for your Los Angeles Dodgers today, so in honor of that event, I thought I would breakdown a swing that he took against Clayton Richard of the San Diego Padres yesterday.

IT’S SUPER IMPORTANT!

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Adam Kennedy Thought Analysis: “Down by one? No problem. Adam Kennedy’s here to save the day. Sitting dead red because that’s how Adam Kennedy likes it.”

Adam Kennedy Swing Analysis: Look how strong and hopeful he looks here. Like a proud lion confident that he’s about to rule the plains. Save that image in your head for contrast purposes later.

Adam Kennedy Thought Analysis: “Throwing Adam Kennedy a fastball? LOLOLOLOL!”

Adam Kennedy Swing Analysis: You can tell he thinks he recognizes the pitch here. If you look closely, you can almost see his eyes get wider because he thinks he just got a fastball up in the zone. Yeah … oops.

Adam Kennedy Thought Analysis: “I would be rofling right now if I wasn’t about to crush this baseball like Juan Uribe does the post-game spread. Tie game, incoming.”

Adam Kennedy Swing Analysis: Shit.

Adam Kennedy Thought Analysis: “Aw fuck, is that a slider?”

Adam Kennedy Swing Analysis: Shit.

Adam Kennedy Thought Analysis: *Sigh*

Adam Kennedy Swing Analysis: My favorite part about this is the look of resignation and utter defeat on his face. It permeates the screen and should be used as a flawless example of emoting in acting school.

Adam Kennedy Thought Analysis: “Now I’m gonna get mocked by the blogs again…”

Adam Kennedy Swing Analysis: I enjoy how his head automatically goes down, as if he knows that he’s just started a race to see who can type out the most clever “Adam Kennedy sucks” tweet.

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Seriously though, he sucks.

Now enjoy him going 5-for-5 with 5 home runs today because I wrote this.

The popular discussion about this game will revolve around the blown call that ended it, but that kind of stuff will happen from time to time, just ask the Padres. For my interests, the real discussion should revolve around exactly what Don Mattingly was thinking late in the game.

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As it got down to the late innings of a tie game on the road, it wasn’t hard to see that Mattingly was going to save closer Javy Guerra for a save situation. Many of us speculated on that move well before it happened, and sure enough, Matt Guerrier entered the game in the ninth.

Now Guerrier has been excellent this season and Guerra has struggled lately, but overall, Guerra is the better reliever and he’s the team’s closer. Yet instead of making sure that, you know, the game actually continues, Guerra was saved for when the Dodgers took the lead, a lead that never came.

That was a managerial mistake, and Guerrier compounded it by making a mistake of his own with the walk of Jonathan Lucroy. The Brewers gave the Dodgers a gift by bunting into an out without advancing the runner, but the Dodgers gave it right back when Nyjer Morgan stole second and advanced to third on a throwing error by A.J. Ellis.

Now this is the point where I felt Mattingly’s decision making got really odd.

Mattingly proceeded to intentionally walk Rickie Weeks to put runners on first and third with one out. If you’re going to go that route, the next course of action is to:

1) Walk George Kottaras to load the bases and create a force play at home.
2) Play the corners in and at double play depth up the middle, and try to induce a grounder.

Instead, Mattingly brought in Jerry Hairston Jr. from the outfield to make five infielders and then proceeded to play all of them in, negating the point of walking Weeks to begin with. The fact that the walk was useless was further driven home when Weeks took second base on defensive indifference, thus showing that the Dodgers never cared about creating a force at second.

So if they had no intention of using the force play at second, why didn’t they walk Kottaras after they walked Weeks? Presumably because they didn’t want to face Ryan Braun with the bases loaded, but if that was indeed the case, why not pitch to Weeks since they weren’t banking on a force play being around to begin with?

1) Pitch to Weeks and pitch to Kottaras.
2) Walk Weeks, play the corners in and the middle at double play depth, and try to induce Kottaras into hitting a grounder.
3) Walk Weeks, walk Kottaras, and face Braun.

I prefer going with option one or option two over option three by a lot, but all seem to make some semblance of logical sense. Instead, Mattingly went with option four, which involved still having to face both Kottaras and Braun, both with no force play in tact if Guerrier did his job, meaning they actively choose to face one of the best hitters in the National League and gave the Brewers two chances to win it.

With option one, you potentially miss having to pitch to Braun. With options two and three (especially two), there’s a chance you can get out of it with one pitch. Yet, Mattingly seems to have chosen the scenario that both gives the opposing team the most attempts at driving in the runner from third and results in having to face the best hitter on the Brewers.

Swell.

Granted, most of this discussion was negated when Guerrier unintentionally walked Kottaras, but it still revealed a lot of what Mattingly was or wasn’t thinking.

It’s just so … what?

Ugh.

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As far as the last play of the game, he was out, as Mike Petriello‘s GIF shows.

I initially thought Ellis completely whiffed on the tag, but having now seen it slowed down, I see where the glove bends back as he makes contact with Morgan.

Terrible setup and throw by Matt Kemp, by the way.

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What is Adam Kennedy on the team for?

I feel no more confident with him up at the plate as opposed to a pitcher, and quite frankly, he’s done nothing in recent years to prove he’s a significant improvement.

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Let’s not lose sight of the fact that Guerrier was signed for three years by Colletti and is the 4th best reliever to 3 guys making $500k.

— Chad Moriyama (@ChadMoriyama) April 19, 2012

Yes, I'm in shape. The shape I'm in is round.

Juan Uribe is off to a miserable start for the Dodgers in 2012, putting up a .231/.259/.231/.490 line while playing a mediocre third base. After a particularly ugly swing in the bottom of the eighth inning of Friday’s game against the Padres, color guy Steve Lyons took at look at Uribe’s swing mechanics.

Basically what Lyons pointed out is that Uribe’s lead foot drifts away from home plate as he steps and swings, leading him to pull off the ball with his body. Lyons is actually correct, as that’s horrible technique that you shouldn’t teach anybody, but Uribe’s ugly looking swing on that pitch wasn’t any different than what Uribe has always done, successful or not.

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Note: That arrow is what Lyons drew, not me.

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While it’s not exactly the same pitch and it’s not exactly the same swing, it’s close enough to identical that you should be able to get my point. On one of those swings, Uribe hit a line shot into the left field stands for a homer. On the other swing, we all sat back and wondered how he ever makes contact with the baseball, much less how he gets paid millions to play.

So while the swing analysis of Lyons was correct, he didn’t factor in what Uribe looks like when he does hit the ball well, which, for better or worse, is basically the exact same thing as when he does terrible. As such, this isn’t so much a case of something that coaches can correct as it is the Dodgers getting exactly what they paid for. Uribe is a streaky player, so he could turn it around at a moment’s notice, and there’s really no mechanical issue with his swing that wasn’t there when the team signed him.

The bottom line is that if the team thinks the skills they paid him for remain in tact, then they just need to be patient and hope he goes on one of his hot streaks. However, if they think his skills have deteriorated, then they need to rework his swing and make it more efficient to give Uribe a fighting chance as he ages. He wouldn’t be the first player to do so, and he certainly wouldn’t be the best.

How did I feel about Don Mattingly‘s decision making in the bottom of the fifth against the Padres yesterday?

Great decision by Mattingly, fuck stupid statistics like pitcher wins.

— Chad Moriyama (@ChadMoriyama) April 8, 2012

Wait, he brought in Wright.

— Chad Moriyama (@ChadMoriyama) April 8, 2012

Yeah, that basically sums up my thoughts on Mattingly’s managerial skills in yesterday’s game. Good idea, bad execution.

Up five runs to none in the bottom of the fifth inning, starter Chris Capuano was struggling mightily with his control. After getting a strikeout to begin the frame, he gave up a single, a walk, got a force out, and then walked the next two batters.

Now most managers would let their starter try to get the last out of the fifth inning in this scenario because of the vaunted pitcher win, but it’s an inherently stupid thing to let influence decision making since it’s a meaningless statistic, especially when the game is on the line.

As such, Mattingly made the right call by pulling Capuano, who had been iffy with his control all day (even by his own admission in the post-game interview), but negated that decision by bringing in Jamey Wright, who was essentially the last man to make an eight-man bullpen out of Spring Training.

If Jansen or Coffey or something do that, I can live with it. Wright is going to be in like independent league in 15 days.

— Chad Moriyama (@ChadMoriyama) April 8, 2012

That one out is the highest leverage situation of the game (or will lead to it) because it either keeps the game at a four-run lead or it starts a chain reaction that implodes the game for the Dodgers. As such, it’s a perfect opportunity to use Kenley Jansen, probably the best reliever in the pen, But even if that’s too unconventional, why not veterans like Todd Coffey or Matt Guerrier? That’s what the Dodgers are paying them for, isn’t it?

The decision was half right, but half right is still wrong.

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In transaction news, Carlos Monasterios was released by the team yesterday.

The Dodgers have released right-hander Carlos Monasterios, who pitched in 32 games for them in 2010 but has since required two elbow operations.

Monasterios, 26, was a Rule 5 Draft pick who went 3-5 with a 4.38 ERA in 2010, when he started 13 games and spent the entire season in the Major Leagues. But after making one start at Triple-A last year, he required Tommy John elbow reconstruction and missed the rest of the season.

He encountered further arm problems after reporting to Spring Training this year and at the end of March underwent surgery to relocate the ulna nerve.

He looked to be solid front-end bullpen guy, long man, and spot starter, but injuries really derailed a potentially decent career.