True Blue LA: Eric Stephen looks at the available free agent starting pitchers and concludes that it’s Zack Greinke or bust.

When it comes down to it, if the Dodgers are hellbent on adding a starting pitcher they should only add a difference-maker. Dempster is a fall back, while Sanchez (money) and Kuroda (draft pick, age) seem overly expensive and not without significant risk. That leaves Greinke, the pitcher with the best track record and highest ceiling among available options.

Greinke or bust.

I think he’s right, but only assuming that Anibal Sanchez actually gets anywhere close to what he’s asking, and I don’t necessarily buy that. I mean just the other day Jeremy Guthrie was allegedly asking for around $12 million annually.

Feelin’ Kinda Blue: Dustin Nosler says that after pairing age risk and the cost of losing a draft pick, bringing Hiroki Kuroda back is too much to give up.

I get it. Kuroda is a quality pitcher, something the Dodgers could use in the rotation. But he’s not a young guy and having to give up the draft pick is the only reason I don’t want to see the Dodgers bring him back,

This rings especially true if the Dodgers plan to trade away even more players from their dwindling farm system, because then constantly hitting on and having first-round picks is crucial.

Mike Scioscia’s Tragic Illness: Mike Petriello has a nice summary of everything regarding Hyun Jin Ryu.

The reason I’m skeptical about throwing money at him is because reports seem to have him sitting in the 88-91 range with only his change-up grading as a plus pitch.

The trade deadline is now less than 48 hours away and the Dodgers are still looking for another bat and an upgrade to their rotation.

An additional bat should be the priority, but the Dodgers seem intent on securing an arm instead.

Either way, what are the rumors today?

—–

Remember that Ryan Dempster thing? Well, it’s still going on.

The Cubs and Dodgers are still discussing righty Ryan Dempster, tweets Yahoo’s Tim Brown. Left fielder Alfonso Soriano remains part of these trade talks, tweets Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports. The Dodgers are said to be Dempster’s first choice, and he controls the process with 10-and-5 rights.

I think a package deal of Dempster and Alfonso Soriano is the most likely move the Dodgers make before the deadline.

—–

Jayson Stark of ESPN has the Dodgers in active pursuit of Josh Johnson.

Clubs identify the Dodgers, Orioles and Blue Jays as other aggressive suitors for Johnson while the White Sox, Red Sox, Braves, and Royals have checked in.

Still don’t think they could form an appealing package for him even if they wanted to.

—–

Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times says the team is chasing James Shields as well.

The Braves, Dodgers, Indians and Rangers are the teams most interested in Shields, who, along with Miami’s Josh Johnson, are two of the most prominent starters being talked about in advance of Tuesday’s deadline for nonwaiver deals.

Not entirely sure how much of an upgrade he actually is at this point.

—–

Jim Salisbury of CSN Philly puts the Dodgers on Shane Victorino.

Multiple baseball sources indicated on Saturday that the Phils’ talks involving Victorino were getting warm. The Reds, Pirates, Dodgers and Giants all have interest in Victorino, and scouts from those clubs have peeked in on the Phillies lately. The Dodgers have two scouts eye-balling the Phillies in Atlanta, and the Reds also have a scout in town for the Phils-Braves series. The Reds also like outfielder Juan Pierre.

Please no.

Moving on to actual potential upgrades, Tim Brown of Yahoo! Sports says the Dodgers would like to get Shin Soo Choo, but Buster Olney of ESPN plays Johnny Raincloud and says it would take a ton for the Indians to move him.

Count the Dodgers among teams interested in Choo.

— Tim Brown (@TBrownYahoo) July 30, 2012

Indians think it’s unlikely they’ll move Shin-Soo Choo. They’d need the perfect offer to make it happen.

— Buster Olney (@Buster_ESPN) July 30, 2012

Jon Heyman of CBS Sports says the Dodgers have interest in Justin Morneau.

At least the Dodgers, Blue Jays and Giants appear to have some interest in Twins first baseman Justin Morneau, who is making a nice comeback this year.

Despite all the rumors, it doesn’t appear as if anything is imminent. The Dempster/Soriano deal is closest to being done, but most of the other rumors have the Dodgers just interested for now.

With that said, I doubt the Dodgers are done for 2012 in the trade market, so I anticipate things escalating quickly.

Jon Heyman of CBS Sports reports that the Dodgers rejected a deal of Ryan Dempster for Allen Webster.

The Cubs offered to send Ryan Dempster to his preferred Dodgers straight up for solid right-handed pitching prospect Allen Webster, but the Dodgers have rejected the offer.

The issue seems to be this: The Dodgers don’t appear to love Dempster quite as much as he loves them.

According to people briefed on the talks, the Dodgers have thus far offered a couple of lesser prospects, guys who may project as relievers.

Could it be that the Dodgers offered some combination of Josh Lindblom, Shawn Tolleson, Josh Wall, and Chris Withrow?

#Dodgers and #Cubs discussing a Ryan Dempster-for-Josh Lindblom deal, source says.

— Jerry Crasnick (@jcrasnick) July 28, 2012

Seems likely that the offered deal from the Dodgers side would include both Withrow and Lindblom because the Cubs were previously rumored to have shown interest in Withrow.

In related trade news, Danny Knobler of CBS Sports reports that the trade might be expanded to include Bryan LaHair or Alfonso Soriano.

The Dodgers and Cubs, stalled on what the Dodgers would give up in a trade for Ryan Dempster, have had some discussions on expanding the deal to also include Alfonso Soriano or Bryan LaHair, sources say.

The inclusion of Soriano or LaHair is still viewed as a longshot, perhaps even a “massive longshot,” as one person briefed on the discussions described it.

I’m guessing that an expanded deal would include haggling over either money (Soriano) or prospects (LaHair). Plus, it would probably include Webster or Garrett Gould in addition to a reliever or two.

—–

If the Dodgers can’t get Dempster, their attention may turn towards James Shields or Josh Johnson, according to Heyman.

With the Dodgers and Cubs seemingly at an impasse in Ryan Dempster talks, the Dodgers are looking at Josh Johnson and James Shields as rotation alternatives.

Johnson won’t come cheap though.

The Marlins seek a Mark Teixeira-like package for Josh Johnson, Jon Heyman reported yesterday. In other words, Miami seeks at least three good young pieces for the right-hander. The Blue Jays are pursuing Johnson and the Rangers, Angels and Orioles also appear to have interest.

Not sure it matters at that price, because the Dodgers don’t have the horses in the system to make the trade feasible.

Matt Garza of the Cubs was once considered an option, but it doesn’t look like he’ll be dealt anymore.

Matt Garza won’t start before Tuesday’s non-waiver trade deadline, so the chances of a midseason deal involving the right-hander are remote, Bruce Levine of ESPNChicago.com reports (on Twitter). Jim Bowden of ESPN.com and MLB Network Radio notes that Garza might not be traded until the offseason (on Twitter).

An MRI revealed a slight fluid buildup in Garza’s triceps area, manager Dale Sveum told reporters, including Doug Padilla of ESPNChicago.com. The Dodgers and Red Sox are among the teams with reported interest in Garza.

Only reason I worry about this is because it seems more and more like the Dodgers only rotation option is Dempster, which lessens their leverage in a deal.

—–

Bats are a priority for the Dodgers as well, but are more rumor than substance at this point.

The Dodgers have talked about quite a few other hitters, including both Justin Morneau and Josh Willingham of the Twins. The Twins have said it’s a longshot that they trade Willingham, however.

Phillies still listening on Victorino. Reds, Dodgers, Pirates & Giants among teams interested. But no indication they’re ready to deal him

Justin Morneau is the most intriguing target to me, specifically because he’s making $14 million this year and $14 million next year. His line of .256/.318/.448/.766 is far from impressive, and there are injury concerns, but he does have upside. Plus, the amount of money he’s making is not likely something the Twins want to deal with, so he might not be as expensive in terms of prospects.

The Albuquerque Isotopes and Chattanooga Lookouts had the best week in the Dodgers minor league system, both winning five games this week. The ‘Topes scored the most runs this week with 54, while the Great Lakes Loons gave up the fewest with 24.

The Arizona League Dodgers, a team that had been rolling, had one game in which it gave up 20 runs. The lowlight of the week for sure.

With the trade deadline fast approaching, some of these guys could be making their last appearances on this list.

—–

Albuquerque Isotopes (5-2)

Runs Scored: 54
Runs Allowed: 40

Player Of The Week

Josh Fields – 3B

Fields has been one of the Pacific Coast League‘s hottest hitters, and that continued this week: 10-for-23 (.435) with two home runs, four doubles, nine RBI, nine runs scored, and four walks. Fields is up to .345/.411/.525 on the season, and if the Dodgers don’t find an upgrade at third base he might actually get a shot at the hot corner. This was his third award in four weeks and his fourth overall.

Pitcher Of The Week

Stephen Fife – RHP

Fife had the best week of any Isotopes pitcher despite making his MLB debut this week (6 IP, 4 H, 1 R, 3 BB, 1 K). He had an even better outing for Albuquerque after he was optioned: 7 IP, 4 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 0 BB, 12 K. It was his best outing of the season and there might be some hope for him as a swingman in the majors. This is Fife’s third award of the season.

—–

Chattanooga Lookouts (5-1)

Runs Scored: 37
Runs Allowed: 28

Player Of The Week

Rafael Ynoa – 2B

Believe it or not, this is Ynoa’s third award of the season. He went 11-for-23 (.478) with a double, four RBI, two walks, and a stolen base. He’s raised his season triple slash to .305/.375/.366. He has decent on-base skills but zero power.

Pitcher Of The Week

Allen Webster – RHP

The man who could be traded for Ryan Dempster, Webster had himself quite an outing on Friday: 6 IP, 5 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 2 BB, 10 K. He’s showing why he’s one of the Dodgers top prospects after a terribly slow start to the season. He’s getting better and stronger as the season goes on and he should only be traded for an impact player — definitely not a rental like Dempster.

—–

Rancho Cucamonga Quakes (2-5)

Runs Scored: 17
Runs Allowed: 34

Player Of The Week

Scott Wingo – 2B

Wingo had himself quite a week for the Quakes: 10-for-24 (.417) with three doubles and four runs scored. He has a good eye, drawing 41 walks in 84 games, and plays a decent second base. This is his third honor this season. He needs to finish the season strong to get on the prospect radar.

Pitcher Of The Week

Andres Santiago – RHP

Santiago is on fire, capturing his third straight award and fourth on the season by having another good outing: 7 IP, 4 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 1 BB, 8 K. His ERA is high (4.48), but his peripherals continue to improve (1.19 WHIP, 7.7 H/9, 10.3 K/9, 3.46 K/BB, 3.05 FIP). He’s the Quakes best pitcher right now.

—–

Great Lakes Loons (4-2)

Runs Scored: 29
Runs Allowed: 24

Player Of The Week

O’Koyea Dickson – 1B/DH

Dickson has been noticeably absent from this list for more than a month because of a horrifically bad slump to start the second half. However, it seems he might be back on track after going 8-for-25 (.320) with a home run, two doubles, seven RBI, and three runs scored. He still owns a respectable .842 OPS in the Midwest League. I’d still like to see him promoted to Rancho Cucamonga.

Pitcher Of The Week

Gustavo Gomez – RHP

Gomez makes his first appearance on this list, which is a little surprising. He had a solid outing on Saturday: 5 2/3 IP, 4 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 2 BB, 9 K. The 21-year-old has struggled a lot with the Loons, posting a 5.92 ERA and a .291 BAA. It’d be nice to see him finish the season on a strong note.

—–

Ogden Raptors (2-4)

Runs Scored: 28
Runs Allowed: 37

Player Of The Week

Pat Stover – OF

The Dodgers 40th-round pick this year, Stover could end up being a steal. Oh, and he had a solid week for the Raptors: 6-for-17 (.353) with a home run, three RBI, two runs, and two walks. He owns a .375/.452/.438 triple slash in his first 21 professional games.

Pitcher Of The Week

Matt Laney – LHP

Laney, who began the season with Great Lakes, had the best week of any Raptor pitcher: 6 IP, 6 H, 4 R, 2 ER, 2 BB, 3 K. He’s actually pitched worse since going to Ogden.

—–

Arizona League Dodgers (1-4)

Runs Scored: 17
Runs Allowed: 39

Player Of The Week

Jesmuel Valentin – SS

The Dodgers 2012 second-round pick makes his first appearance on this list by going 4-for-13 (.308) with a home run, three RBI, four runs scored, and three walks. Valentin got off to a slow start but is up to a decent .253/.366/.400 triple slash in his debut season. He’s scored 19 runs and has 19 hits.

Pitcher Of The Week

Lindsey Caughel – RHP

The Dodgers 2012 23rd-round pick had the best week of the bunch, which isn’t saying much: 4 IP, 1 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 0 BB, 5 K. He had a decent game, but no one else had a week worth noting for the team.

—–

Dominican Summer League Dodgers (3-3)

Runs Scored: 32
Runs Allowed: 28

Player Of The Week

Melvin Santana – 2B

Santana has taken over as the team’s best player by earning his third consecutive POTW award. Santana went 6-for-16 (.375) with a double, four runs scored, and three stolen bases. He owns a .313/.387/.507 line with 38 runs scored.

Pitcher Of The Week

Wander Beras – LHP

Beras, like Santana, earns his third consecutive POTW award for the DSL Dodgers by having another fantastic outing: 6 IP, 6 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 1 BB, 10 K. He’s struck out 73 hitters in 56 1/3 innings, but he’s 23 years old at the lowest level of the minors.

GM Ned Colletti says the Dodgers are far from done after landing Hanley Ramirez, as they still want a starter and a bat.

The Dodgers landed the middle-of-the-order bat they’ve been looking for in Hanley Ramirez, but general manager Ned Colletti on Wednesday said he’s still looking for a starting pitcher and another hitter.

“We’re still hunting for starting pitching. We won’t let this deal stand in the way of that,” said the general manager, who dealt starting pitcher Nathan Eovaldi and Minor League pitcher Scott McGough to the Marlins for Ramirez and left-handed reliever Randy Choate.

Completely makes sense, but who? Hence the mess of rumors to follow.

—–

Ryan Dempster Dumpster Fire Of Rumors

Yesterday, it was widely reported that the Dodgers were the front-runners for Ryan Dempster and that the team was confident they could land him.

A trade between the Dodgers and Cubs still seems “realistic,” Jon Paul Morosi of FOX Sports tweets.

The Dodgers have the upper hand in talks with the Cubs, Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com tweets.

The Dodgers are feeling increasingly confident that they can work out a deal for Dempster, ESPN.com’s Buster Olney tweets. The Cubs don’t have many alternatives given Dempster’s interest in playing for L.A. and his no-trade protection.

Today, it has been more of the same.

The Dodgers and Cubs continue talking and “might” be getting closer to a deal involving Dempster, Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports tweets.

Rival executives say the Dodgers are projecting an air of optimism about their chances of obtaining Dempster, ESPN.com’s Jayson Stark reports (on Twitter).

There seems to be a consensus on his destination, which makes sense since he’s all but said it’s the only place he’ll go at this point.

I had no problem with acquiring Dempster, because I figured he would be the upgrade that would come the cheapest for the team. That is, until I saw this tweeted:

Source: #Cubs have asked #Dodgers for Allen Webster as primary piece in Ryan Dempster talks.

— Jon Morosi (@jonmorosi) July 25, 2012

Uh … yeah … no thanks.

I thought the price was supposed to go down as they lose leverage, not up.

Allen Webster is a more advanced version of Garrett Gould with better velocity.

—–

Danny Knobler of CBS Sports reports that the availability of James Shields has drawn interest.

The Angels aren’t the only team in pursuit of James Shields. The Rangers and Dodgers have also made the Rays trade offers for the right-hander, Danny Knobler of CBSSports.com reports.

Jon Paul Morosi of Fox Sports says the Dodgers have alternatives to Dempster in … uh … vastly superior pitchers.

The Dodgers have Zack Greinke and Josh Johnson on their list in case they don’t trade for Dempster, Jon Paul Morosi of FOX Sports tweets.

Odd but okay.

Jayson Stark of ESPN reports that the Dodgers are in on basically every starting pitcher on the market.

The Dodgers are in on a number of starting pitchers, including Nolasco, Blanton, Kevin Millwood, and Jason Vargas in addition to Ryan Dempster and Matt Garza. They’ve also checked in on outfield and first base help, including Victorino and Justin Morneau.

The team is also looking at outfield and first base, which wouldn’t surprise Ken Rosenthal.

Source: #Dodgers deal for Victorino or Pence possible even if team gets Dempster along with H. Ramirez. LA has been in talks with #Phillies.

— Ken Rosenthal (@Ken_Rosenthal) July 25, 2012

—–

In terms of pitching, I’m sort of at the point now where if the Dodgers don’t swing a trade for an elite arm, I’d rather they just do nothing. If Dempster is seriously going to command at least a top five prospect in the system, why bother? With Ted Lilly on his way back, the team has five starters, and John Ely, Stephen Fife, and Webster wait in the minors.

As far as the bats go, I’ve already explained why I’d rather the team not acquire Shane Victorino, and Justin Morneau‘s 0.0 WAR line of .253/.314/.437/.751 doesn’t impress me. The only name that’s intriguing is Hunter Pence. His .267/.334/.447/.781 line isn’t impressive, but he’s a ~3 WAR player that would represent a meaningful upgrade.

According to Ken Rosenthal and Jon Paul Morosi of Fox Sports, the Dodgers have traded Nate Eovaldi and Scott McGough to the Marlins for Hanley Ramirez and Randy Choate.

BLOCKBUSTER: Hanley Ramirez & Randy Choate to #Dodgers, Nathan Eovaldi & Scott McGough to #Marlins, sources tell @Ken_Rosenthal and me.

— Jon Morosi (@jonmorosi) July 25, 2012

I’ll have complete analysis (with all the nerdy stuff) in the morning, but for now, my gut reaction is that it makes sense for both teams.

Regardless of what position he ends up playing, Hanley figures to be a gigantic improvement over the unholy combination of Juan Uribe, Dee Gordon, Adam Kennedy, Elian Herrera, and Luis Cruz. The production the Dodgers are getting from both 3B and SS is just terrible, and it’s not like they were playing quality defense either, so Hanley’s questionable glove shouldn’t burn the team too often.

While I am admittedly excited by the gigantic upside of this deal if Hanley figures it out again, it’s not without risk. After all, there’s a reason the Marlins let him walk with 2 1/2 years of team control remaining.

First of all, Hanley is signed through 2014 and is still owed $31 million over the next two years, including whatever he’s still owed in 2012. Additionally, his batting line has been woeful (by his standards) since 2010, clocking in at .245/.328/.405/.732. Plus, as I mentioned, he’s not a good defender, regardless of where he plays, and there are very real concerns about his motivation and happiness. Normally I would dismiss this as media inflated crap due to him under-performing, but then I consider that his hand got infected because he forgot to take his antibiotics, and you start to wonder.

Choate, the other half of this deal on the Marlins side, also makes sense for the Dodgers. Lefties are batting .150/.200/.183/.383 (yes, really) off him in 2012, and while there’s nothing wrong with Scott Elbert, he’s actually effective against righties much more than lefties in 2012.

—–

For the Marlins, Eovaldi should be a solid rotation contributor, though I think his upside still lies as a #3 because his off-speed stuff lags behind his fastball. From the Dodgers perspective though, they have a ton of arms in the system, and with both Rubby De La Rosa and Ted Lilly due back soon, plus a potential trade for Ryan Dempster/Matt Garza, Nate was an understandably expendable piece. It wouldn’t shock me if the Dodgers lose this trade in terms of surplus value in the end, but I think the deal makes sense, regardless.

Who is McGough though, right? I wrote about him back in February and nothing much has changed yet. I still think he can be a MLB contributor in the bullpen, but he’s not going to be an elite guy and the Dodgers have a ton of arms, so his inclusion isn’t all that important to me.

—–

Overall, I feel the deal makes sense for both sides. The two teams want to go in different directions, and with the free agent market dwindling for the Dodgers, they could afford to absorb salary in exchange for upgrades/upside beyond 2012, and they did exactly that. Meanwhile, the Marlins cleared a contract and a headache off their slate and got solid cost-controlled pieces in return, at least one of which can contribute to the team immediately.

According to Ken Rosenthal of Fox Sports, the Dodgers are now “very unlikely” to land Ryan Dempster, but it seems like the team is still in on the chase.

The Dodgers are “very unlikely” to trade for Dempster according to Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports (on Twitter). They prefer not to trade prospects for a rental, making Matt Garza a more logical target.

Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com reports that the Dempster sweepstakes is currently down to the Braves, Nationals, and Cardinals.

So what now?

Well the Dodgers have reportedly moved on to Dempster’s teammate on the Cubs, Matt Garza.

The Dodgers don’t want to surrender prospects for a rental and are “very unlikely” to acquire Ryan Dempster, but Bruce Levine of ESPN Chicago reports that they have shifted their focus to Matt Garza. Los Angeles had a deal on the table to acquire Dempster yesterday but it was not consummated.

Why the shift?

One possibility is that the overwhelming interest in Dempster has changed his price and the Dodgers don’t want to go further than what they have already put on the table. However, part of me wonders if this was influenced by the team’s recent struggles and Cole Hamels appearing to be close to agreeing to an extension. In other words, the Dodgers seem intent on getting a rotation contributor beyond 2012 now, perhaps because their plan was to get Dempster at a cheaper rate than Garza and then sign Hamels in the off-season. However, if that scenario is no longer on the table, it raises questions about both how they would improve the rotation in 2012 and how they would add a quality arm for 2013 and beyond.

—–

Of course, it could just be because Garza is the more valuable asset on the table. Despite their ERA difference (which doesn’t measure pitcher worth, IMO), Dempster isn’t actually a superior pitcher, generally speaking.

Dempster is suppressing his HR rate at close to career best numbers, while Garza’s HR rate is by far his career high.

While FIP is a wonderful tool for determining what actually happened within the pitcher’s control, xFIP and SIERA are better tools for projecting future performance, as they normalize HR rate. So assuming these 100 innings or so don’t represent some type of skill change in the two pitchers, it’s not out of line to say Garza is the better bet going forward.

Garza is a 2.5-3.5 WAR pitcher, plus an extra year of team control in 2013, putting him around 4.5 WAR of value. Dempster is around the same skill level, but without the extra year of control, so he’s worth about 1.0-1.5 WAR. The preference change makes sense in terms of asset value for every team, but in the Dodgers situation it may make more sense than for most. Like any other trade though, it depends on the eventual price on the Dodgers end.

The Dodgers being in on Ryan Dempster has been beaten to death already, but competition is apparently heating up.

The Dodgers and Tigers are among the most serious suitors for Cubs right-hander Ryan Dempster, Morosi reports. Ten teams have reportedly shown interest in Dempster.

That deal that was on the table? Price has probably gone up a bit if the interest from other teams is serious, and maybe it has gone into unrealistic territory at this point.

Either that or this is just bullshit to get the Dodgers and Tigers to give up more.

—–

So … the Dodgers have interest in Shane Victorino.

One executive predicts Shane Victorino will be the first big-name player traded. The Dodgers have some interest in Victorino, and the Rangers, Tigers, Pirates, Marlins and Giants have all scouted him recently.

Why though? He plays center and Matt Kemp is already back. If they move Victorino to left, then he loses a lot of his value. That is especially true in 2012 since he is hitting .251/.316/.389/.705. Granted, his BABIP stands at .265, so some of that is luck-related, but his pop is way down. Even if he regresses to his norms, he projects at .267/.334/.434/.769 the rest of the way.

Not the impact bat the Dodgers need in left. Plus, he’s a douche.

—–

A more interesting option on the Phillies? Jimmy Rollins.

A baseball executive recently suggested that Jimmy Rollins’ contract would be a deterrent if the Phillies were to move him, but they may have one suitor. Danny Knobler of CBS Sports writes that the Dodgers are looking to upgrade at shortstop, and have some interest in Rollins.

The biggest red flag with Rollins is, of course, the aforementioned three-year contract he signed this offseason. The Phillies guaranteed Rollins $33MM through his age-35 season, and the contract also contains a vesting option for a fourth year at another $11MM. That option is said to be easily attainable for Rollins, and is contingent on plate appearances. As Knobler points out on Twitter, Rollins also has 10-and-5 rights, which give him the ability to veto any potential trade.

To be honest, I don’t even get why he would be available. What would the Phillies do at shortstop? That’s not a team built to rebuild and they aren’t going to find a superior replacement.

Regardless, if he does become available, the Dodgers are right to be interested. In 2012 he’s hitting .262/.317/.421/.739 with a .322 wOBA, which is unimpressive until you consider how terrible MLB shortstops are (average SS wOBA is .297). Factor in defense and baserunning and he’s on pace for a 3-4 WAR season, well worth the $11 million.

What about after that though, right? Well, he’ll probably regress a bit, especially as injury becomes a concern. I’m not saying there aren’t red flags, but the better question is what other options would be available? I looked at the 2013 and 2014 free agents, but couldn’t find a single one that I’d rather have, even considering the price tag.

Best of all, I can’t think of a reason the Phillies would move him if not in a salary dump for whatever reason, so the cost in prospects shouldn’t be significant.

=====

Here’s an unpopular thought: Maybe the Dodgers shouldn’t buy at the trading deadline.

It’s quite the flawed team, so even if they do manage to get into the playoffs, barring a miracle run (it’s the playoffs after all), they would likely run into trouble early.

I suggest this change in 2012 philosophy primarily because if the Dodgers continue to falter, and they are like 3-5 games back of the division at the end of the month, it’s not worth it for them to be giving up any of their future to improve this season.

The way the NL West is going, the second place team isn’t going to be in wild card contention anyway, so if the team does in fact stand pat or make only minor moves, maybe it has less to do with a lack of will to win and more to do with just making sense.

According to George Ofman of WBBM in Chicago, the Dodgers have an offer on the table for the Cubs‘ Ryan Dempster that involves two pitching prospects.

Cubs have at least 2 deals on table for Dempster. One from Tigers including young lefty and from Dodgers for two pitching prospects.

— George ofman (@georgeofman) July 14, 2012

I’ve already explored the potential deal for Dempster and explained why I don’t mind the idea, but the price is a separate issue altogether.

By itself, two pitching prospects doesn’t mean much, as it all depends on the names. So who might the involved prospects be?

—–

Despite Ned Colletti being Ned Colletti, I would believe that Zach Lee (Age 20|Level A+/AA|3.45 SIERA) and Nate Eovaldi (22|MLB|5.01) would be off the table for a #2/#3 starter rental. Also, Allen Webster (22|AA|3.81) would be an odd inclusion to me, as would Chris Reed (22|A+/AA|3.42) because I feel the organization thinks highly of him.

All of that leaves Garrett Gould (20|A+|3.77) as a potential centerpiece prospect that sticks out once again, as the team was willing to part with him in a Carlos Lee trade. I would think the surging Ethan Martin (23|AA|4.19) could also be a potential centerpiece of a trade, as a friend of mine says he’s touching high-90s again. As for the secondary prospect, Chris Withrow (23|AA|3.96), Aaron Miller (24|AA|4.39), Angel Sanchez (22|A+|4.11), Matt Magill (22|AA|3.66), and Ryan O’Sullivan (21|A/A+|4.50) would be the possibilities. So mix-and-match one from each pool and there you have the potential deal in place.

—–

Would the deal be worth it? Probably.

While both Gould and Martin are likely top ten prospects in the system at this point, and all the secondary prospects have potential value, the Dodgers have a ton of arms in the system. None of the mentioned names strike me as sure thing MLB contributors, and given the bust rate of prospects, I think a deal of this nature is an acceptable risk to take for a rental.

It would be difficult to complain if the team made a deal like the one I proposed above for what represents a clear upgrade in the rotation and a pitcher that slots in nicely behind Clayton Kershaw. However, if the deal includes Lee, Eovaldi, Webster, or Reed, it could come back to haunt the team sooner than later.

So with the Dodgers basically looking at everybody, and with the Carlos Lee trade falling through, the team has now revealed five teams that their scouts are watching intently as potential trading partners.

Dodgers scouts have an increased presence with Milwaukee, as well as continued coverage of the Chicago Cubs, Colorado, Philadelphia and Minnesota.

The players believed in their sights include Brewers sluggers Aramis Ramirez and Corey Hart; Cubs starting pitcher Ryan Dempster; Rockies outfielder Michael Cuddyer; and Phillies starting pitcher Cole Hamels. At the top of the club’s wish list are a productive corner infielder and a starting pitcher.

I thought the five players were intriguing options, so I decided to take a detailed look at all of them.

=====

Aramis Ramirez – 3B – Brewers

Dodgers third basemen on the year have combined to go .245/.319/.340/.659, and that’s being kind because utility man Jerry Hairston Jr. has a .326/.380/.500/.880 line in 50 plate appearances there. Hairston operates best as a super utility guy though, so Ramirez would essentially be a Juan Uribe (.200/.259/.280/.539)/Adam Kennedy (.228/.319/.289/.608)replacement.

Ramirez has hit .263/.341/.471/.812 so far in 2012 and he projects to improve on that a bit at .274/.341/.484/.824. Uribe and Kennedy are about average defensively, while Ramirez is well below average, bordering on poor. There’s a five to ten run gap on defense that Ramirez will have to make up, and that he does. For the rest of 2012, Ramirez projects to be about 20-25 runs better offensively than the combination of men he’s replacing. If you buy into his splits, which for his career have him ~60 OPS points higher in the second half, the disparity could be even more significant. Also, despite being 34, his peripherals show little sign of decline.

Of course, there’s the problem of the contract that the team would be taking on. Making $6 million in 2012, $10 million in 2013, and $16 million in 2014 with a 2015 mutual option/$4 million buyout, the Dodgers would hypothetically be on the hook for about $32 million for 2.5 years of service.

A bit painful but perhaps not overly terrible for a 3-4 WAR player, even one due to regress because of age. Ramirez would basically have to be worth around 7 or 8 WAR to make it work, and he figures to be in the neighborhood of that figure. Furthermore, he plays third, and unlike the corner outfield positions, third basemen are a much rarer asset. This is particularly true for the Dodgers, who have a complete dearth of internal options. Now factor in that the free agent market might come down to Maicier Izturis, and Ramirez isn’t such a terrible shot to take.

For the Brewers part, the Dodgers will probably have to wait until the last minute. Milwaukee sits a mere seven games back of first right now, which may seem like a lot, but with two wild card spots this year and the Cardinals late charge in 2011 fresh in everybody’s memory, they’ll probably be taking this decision down to the wire. One winning streak and they may not end up selling off at all.

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Corey Hart – RF – Brewers

Dodgers left fielders have hit .242/.300/.333/.632 on the year, which is amazingly bad. Hart would be a boon for the team, as he’s currently at .251/.313/.505/.818 and projects to hit .264/.327/.484/.811 the rest of the way. An average fielder, he would improve that area of the outfield as well, as they are basically stuck with Juan Rivera and Bobby Abreu as their primary options.

Hart is signed through 2013 and makes $9 million in 2012 and $10 million in 2013. His contract is more than reasonable for a 3-4 WAR player, and he’s a potential addition who could make upwards of a 25-35 run difference over the rest of the year (that’s being conservative, really).

Like Ramirez though, he may never become available, as the Brewers may never end up selling.

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Ryan Dempster – RHP – Cubs

I already addressed his potential addition here, but his acquisition makes even more sense now with Ted Lilly being transferred to the 60-day DL, health unknown, as Dempster would be a huge improvement over Nate Eovaldi.

The Cubs are 14 games back and are shopping everybody, so he’ll be on the market.

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Cole Hamels – LHP – Phillies

I like Hamels for the same reason I like Dempster, except he’s even better than Dempster and has a longer track record of excellence without the immediate injury history. He’s a consistent 3.5-4.5 WAR pitcher and a solid #1/#2 to slot behind Clayton Kershaw if the Dodgers can make the playoffs.

A 2.79 ERA/3.05 FIP/3.02 xFIP/3.03 SIERA in 2011 and a 3.08 ERA/3.28 FIP/3.24 xFIP/3.25 SIERA in 2012 basically says it all.

Hamels makes $15 million in 2012 and is slated to be a free agent, one that will probably be pursued by the Dodgers either way. The Phillies are 12 games back and should be sellers.

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Michael Cuddyer – RF – Rockies

Like Hart, he would be replacing a terrible concoction of outfielders that the Dodgers have trotted out in left field. Like Hart, he’s a solid hitter. Putting up a .284/.346/.459/.805 line in 2011, he has dropped a bit to .260/.313/.480/.793 in 2012, but projects to finish at a .281/.338/.485/.823 clip. Unlike Hart, he’s a rather poor defender, and I do have concerns that Coors Field is playing insane again, yet he’s still down a bit. That concern is especially true because he’s 33.

As far as his contract goes, he makes $10.5 million in 2012, 2013, and 2014, with performance bonuses that could up it by $1.5 million in 2014. A reasonable deal for a 2.5-3.5 WAR player, but I think Hart is both the better overall player and the one with less risk.

The Rockies are 14 games back at the moment and surely would be willing to sell, even if it’s within the division.

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Overall, all of the rumored players mentioned represent significant improvements to the team. Unlike Carlos Lee, they are likely to be difference makers for the Dodgers, thus making it understandable that they surrender assets for them. Whether the trades are workable or worth it obviously still depends on what the Dodgers give up and the finances involved, but if these are the types of players the team is pursuing, they definitely seem headed down the right road.

It’s no secret that the Dodgers are desperate for help. Offense has been the primary problem of late, as the team is now feeling the effects of missing cogs like Matt Kemp, Andre Ethier, and Mark Ellis. However, Ned Colletti has been looking to shore up pitching as well.

As of the last couple of days though, seemingly as a result of the recent losing streak, talks have intensified everywhere, and the Dodgers are apparently trying to find upgrades wherever they can get them.

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A prime example of their current mindset is Buster Olney listing basically everybody as potential trade targets for the Dodgers. He mentions Jeff Francouer, Alfonso Soriano, Chase Headley, Edwin Encarnacion, Vernon Wells, Carlos Lee, Justin Morneau, Bryan LaHair, Hanley Ramirez, Daniel Murphy, and “Boston Red Sox leftovers“. I wouldn’t waste too much time thinking about scenarios for most of those names, as it’s just speculation, but it gives you a general idea of what the team is looking at.

Dodgers have scouted Bryan LaHair, and like other teams, they have concerns about defense. Maybe that won’t matter, because they need help.

— Buster Olney (@Buster_ESPN) June 28, 2012

Ken Rosenthal‘s recent reports provide another example, as he reveals the Dodgers have been in touch with at least eight teams about a variety of positions.

According to major league sources, they have talked multiple times to the Cubs, Astros, and Brewers. They’ve also touched base with a number of other teams, including the Mariners, Royals, Twins, Blue Jays and Padres, sources said. The Dodgers would like to add a hitter, a starting pitcher, and a left-handed reliever.

So the Dodgers are contacting everybody in an effort to improve the squad, not just the offense, but also the rotation and bullpen.

Specifically, the team is looking hard at Ryan Dempster, who I wrote about before, and are even apparently considering Derrek Lee.

Speaking of the Cubs, the Dodgers are viewed as a favorite to land Ryan Dempster once he returns from the disabled list, sources suggest to Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com. The two sides haven’t talked since the week before Dempster went down but a person familiar with the situation says Los Angeles has a very good chance to land the right-hander.

The Dodgers are lukewarm to the idea of signing Derrek Lee, and would prefer to explore other options first, a major league source told Rosenthal. Lee would require time at Triple-A and the Dodgers seem to prefer more certainty and perhaps a more immediate solution at first base.

Would take the Lee interest with a grain of salt, but the Dodgers are clearly looking for just about anybody who is alive and can play first base at this point.

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So with that established, the hot button issue at the moment are the rumors involving Zach Lee, Garrett Gould, Jed Lowrie, and Carlos Lee.

9:02pm: The Dodgers are talking to the Astros about a trade that would send Jed Lowrie to the Dodgers with minor-leaguers Zach Lee and Garrett Gould headed to Houston, according to Buster Olney of ESPN.com (via Twitter). One source place the odds of the deal taking place at about 50-50 right now, Olney tweets.

I understood the interest in Lowrie, as Dee Gordon has been a black hole, both offensively and defensively, but Carlos is a marginal upgrade at best, if he even is one.

10:11pm: The Dodgers asked about Lowrie, but he’s now not in the current talks, tweets Buster Olney of ESPN.com. A source says that there’s a 50-50 shot that Carlos Lee accepts a deal to Los Angeles for pitching prospects.

This is where I got negative. With Lowrie out of the picture, it’s Carlos for “pitching prospects”, plural.

9:57pm: Dodgers‬’ talks with ‪Astros‬ involve Carlos Lee, not Jed Lowrie, according to Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports (via Twitter). Lee would need to a approve deal and has the right to block a deal to the Dodgers.

As I was expressing on Twitter, I’m not thrilled with the idea of trading prospects for Carlos Lee. A solid segment of fans disagreed though, as they were generally enamored with acquiring an upgrade over James Loney. I’m just not sure Carlos Lee is the guy they’re looking for.

Carlos Lee’s current slash line is .290/.342/.412/.754, which is in line with his recent production, and he projects to hit .276/.328/.434/.762 the rest of the way. Additionally, consider that he’s a terrible defender in the outfield and a fringe to poor defender at first base.

James Loney’s current line is .236/.303/.323/.626, which is partially the result of lower than normal BABIP. He projects to hit .266/.327/.387/.714 the rest of the way. Plus, he plays above-average to plus defense at first.

Now 50 points difference in OPS is nothing to scoff at, but factor in the defense and then consider that Loney has a .802 OPS career against righties (.669 against lefties) and Juan Rivera has a .821 career OPS against lefties (.747 against righties). Now the gap is basically non-existent.

You know how to tell that this trade is an iffy upgrade? When it’s even arguable as to whether a potential acquisition is an improvement over James Loney and Juan Rivera.

Then there’s the matter of the prospects involved, but I already gave my thoughts on that through Twitter.

My problem isn’t the prospects involved as much as it is getting players who are decent in return, which Ned has trouble doing.

— Chad Moriyama (@ChadMoriyama) June 30, 2012

Garrett Gould most likely busts anyway, as do most prospects, but surrendering them randomly for crap is pointless.

— Chad Moriyama (@ChadMoriyama) June 30, 2012

The discussion is about the logic behind giving up assets at random because “it’s an upgrade now”.

— Chad Moriyama (@ChadMoriyama) June 30, 2012

It’s not so much about the prospects, it’s about giving away legitimate assets for questionable upgrades.

Some people are happy to give away prospects for immediate upgrades, no matter how small, but why give away prospects for basically no reason? Throwing shit against the wall may work in small sample sizes, but do it enough and you’ll get burned more often than not.

The Dodgers under Colletti have made a habit of surrendering solid assets for marginal upgrades, so it’s a legitimate concern for fans, and history indicates we have every right to be.