The popular discussion about this game will revolve around the blown call that ended it, but that kind of stuff will happen from time to time, just ask the Padres. For my interests, the real discussion should revolve around exactly what Don Mattingly was thinking late in the game.

—–

As it got down to the late innings of a tie game on the road, it wasn’t hard to see that Mattingly was going to save closer Javy Guerra for a save situation. Many of us speculated on that move well before it happened, and sure enough, Matt Guerrier entered the game in the ninth.

Now Guerrier has been excellent this season and Guerra has struggled lately, but overall, Guerra is the better reliever and he’s the team’s closer. Yet instead of making sure that, you know, the game actually continues, Guerra was saved for when the Dodgers took the lead, a lead that never came.

That was a managerial mistake, and Guerrier compounded it by making a mistake of his own with the walk of Jonathan Lucroy. The Brewers gave the Dodgers a gift by bunting into an out without advancing the runner, but the Dodgers gave it right back when Nyjer Morgan stole second and advanced to third on a throwing error by A.J. Ellis.

Now this is the point where I felt Mattingly’s decision making got really odd.

Mattingly proceeded to intentionally walk Rickie Weeks to put runners on first and third with one out. If you’re going to go that route, the next course of action is to:

1) Walk George Kottaras to load the bases and create a force play at home.
2) Play the corners in and at double play depth up the middle, and try to induce a grounder.

Instead, Mattingly brought in Jerry Hairston Jr. from the outfield to make five infielders and then proceeded to play all of them in, negating the point of walking Weeks to begin with. The fact that the walk was useless was further driven home when Weeks took second base on defensive indifference, thus showing that the Dodgers never cared about creating a force at second.

So if they had no intention of using the force play at second, why didn’t they walk Kottaras after they walked Weeks? Presumably because they didn’t want to face Ryan Braun with the bases loaded, but if that was indeed the case, why not pitch to Weeks since they weren’t banking on a force play being around to begin with?

1) Pitch to Weeks and pitch to Kottaras.
2) Walk Weeks, play the corners in and the middle at double play depth, and try to induce Kottaras into hitting a grounder.
3) Walk Weeks, walk Kottaras, and face Braun.

I prefer going with option one or option two over option three by a lot, but all seem to make some semblance of logical sense. Instead, Mattingly went with option four, which involved still having to face both Kottaras and Braun, both with no force play in tact if Guerrier did his job, meaning they actively choose to face one of the best hitters in the National League and gave the Brewers two chances to win it.

With option one, you potentially miss having to pitch to Braun. With options two and three (especially two), there’s a chance you can get out of it with one pitch. Yet, Mattingly seems to have chosen the scenario that both gives the opposing team the most attempts at driving in the runner from third and results in having to face the best hitter on the Brewers.

Swell.

Granted, most of this discussion was negated when Guerrier unintentionally walked Kottaras, but it still revealed a lot of what Mattingly was or wasn’t thinking.

It’s just so … what?

Ugh.

—–

As far as the last play of the game, he was out, as Mike Petriello‘s GIF shows.

I initially thought Ellis completely whiffed on the tag, but having now seen it slowed down, I see where the glove bends back as he makes contact with Morgan.

Terrible setup and throw by Matt Kemp, by the way.

—–

What is Adam Kennedy on the team for?

I feel no more confident with him up at the plate as opposed to a pitcher, and quite frankly, he’s done nothing in recent years to prove he’s a significant improvement.

—–

Let’s not lose sight of the fact that Guerrier was signed for three years by Colletti and is the 4th best reliever to 3 guys making $500k.

— Chad Moriyama (@ChadMoriyama) April 19, 2012

While Ryan Braun’s suspension over a positive drug test has ended with it being overturned, I think everybody recognizes that his trial has only just begun.

While the suspension being lifted was a boost to the Milwaukee Brewers, it probably would have actually been better for Braun’s reputation had he gotten suspended but for reasons that were shown to clearly be a mistake or unintentional, much like J.C. Romero.

Sad? Maybe, but utterly true.

As it stands, the debate in the court of public opinion over his guilt or innocence is just getting started.

—–

The fact of the matter is that nothing is clear as of yet.

Yesterday I wrote an article in response to the mainstream media not covering what I believed to be pertinent and relevant information acquired from anonymous sources, same as anybody else reporting on the story.

The point of writing it was to attempt to provide a moment of clarity in what I felt was quickly becoming nothing more than a witch hunt, even though the reality of the situation was that there is still so much that we don’t actually know.

Anybody who has followed me for any amount of time knows that I don’t believe anybody 100% when it comes to athletics and drugs, and I’m a skeptic by nature, but as of this moment I can’t see any reason to go around destroying Braun and pretending the “I know he’s guilty!” version of the story is the absolute truth.

The actual fact of the matter is that we don’t know for sure what has transpired in the Braun saga, despite people acting like they do.

—–

With that established, isn’t it a bit soon for a bunch of people who were all wrong on a judgment about a suspension to regroup and instantly rush to judgment on the same individual yet again? I just found it … sad, really. It was as if nobody had learned the lesson that was just proven to them.

I know some apparently feel comfortable with ruining a guy’s reputation over information that still has questions about it, but I don’t.

The sad fact of the matter is that — while it would be wrong — what could provide clarity and closure to this debate is a leak of the ruling from Shyam Das. If that were to happen, then we wouldn’t have to speculate on what he did and did not know any longer.

At that point I think we could probably make an accurate judgment on exactly what transpired and why Das ruled the way he did. Until then though, everybody’s just guessing as far as I’m concerned.

Doing it over trade rumors and potential performance is one thing, but I’m not okay with dragging anybody’s life through the mud based on assumptions.

=====

Before I found the information I used in my previous post on Braun, I had actually intended to make a light post about the controversy, simply stating something I had observed on the day the suspension was overturned.

CBS Sports

Fox Sports

NBC Sports

Sports Illustrated

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ESPN

I’m not accusing anybody of anything, perhaps ESPN just happened to be the outlet that acquired the Braun leak and also ran the only headline questioning Braun and also all their writers legitimately believe that Braun appears more guilty than innocent, but it just looked funny to see all the headlines from other outlets and then ESPN’s.

The contrast was amusing.

As you already know, Ryan Braun of the Milwaukee Brewers will not be suspended by Major League Baseball after his positive drug test was overturned by arbitrator Shyam Das.

As such, those who relentlessly moralized about Braun from the moment his positive test results were leaked surely took a step back and apologized for their hasty jump-to-conclusions approach, right?

Um … not quite.

They continue to do exactly the same thing even after the suspension was ruled null and void, primarily because every major media outlet reported that it was overturned due to a technicality and not science (1/2/3/4/5).

Almost immediately after the suspension was overturned, the stories started to pile in, sharply shifting in tone from being about Braun’s exoneration to Braun simply getting off on a stroke of luck. As such, the public continues to spew this rhetoric that Braun is definitely guilty of using drugs, it’s just that he wasn’t caught because of MLB’s incompetence.

The problem is that it’s not exactly true.

As many have already shown, the chain of custody is part of science, much like the process aspect of the scientific method is as important as the results, yet people don’t seem to care about that because … uh … science is hard and stuff (1/2/3/4/5).

Additionally, it actually is a matter of science for other reasons as well, as two relatively important findings have been omitted (willfully or not) from almost every news story and opinion piece on Braun. Will Carroll and Lester Munson both offer interesting findings on the decision via their own sources.

Sources have told Carroll that the defense showed that the circumstances which led to the positive drug test was able to be repeated using the errors of the handler, which he explained on WEEI.

In shorter bursts, he explained it on Twitter as well (1/2/3/4/5)

Quit calling Braun decision a technicality, media. It was decided on science.

Repeatable result showed exactly how Braun’s single test showed positive. Arbitrator agreed. Simple, isn’t it?

Know what makes a good soundbite? “44 hours” and “FedEx”. Know what doesn’t? Technical details about urine flora.

Joe Sheehan: So the delay in processing the urine was repeated, and shown to be the cause of the high levels of T?

Will Carroll: More or less. It deserves an answer longer than 140.

JGERRITWULTERKENS: confused; so the sheer act of leaving out a sample in the wrong environment by itself raises the testosterone ratio by >3x?

Will Carroll: To vastly oversimplify, yes.

JGERRITWULTERKENS: Fair enough except if that’s a widely known, medically accepted fact you’d think MLB/testers would have been cognizant, no?

Will Carroll: Tester made a mistake. Its not usually an issue.

Do yourself a favor and read the article that he posted up on Amazon. Not only is it great work, but it benefits The Jimmy Fund.

Carroll’s information is not only relevant, but it’s monumentally important to the argument people are having over whether Braun case was overturned because of the chain of custody or because of doubts involving the actual sample. Carroll’s sources explain quite explicitly that their failure to keep up with the chain of custody caused a failure in the integrity of the sample. Then, not only was the sample’s validity questionable, but they were able to replicate the results and show how it happened. Thus, not only was it a failure in the process, but in the results as well.

In essence, this would break the case of anybody left moralizing, which is a reason I find it curious that nobody wants to run it. For Carroll’s part, he says Fox Sports isn’t silencing him, he was just beaten to the punch, but I preferred his insight over the article by David Epstein and Joe Lemire that actually was run.

Why does nobody want to talk about this? It’s beyond me.

Furthermore, Munson reports that Braun offered his DNA to check whether the urine was actually his, but was refused, suggesting that there were further questions about the legitimacy of the sample.

A failure to follow the delivery procedure seems like a technicality. Does it mean that Braun was clean and had not used any prohibited substance?

The failure to follow the delivery procedure casts significant doubt on the integrity of the collection procedure. That alone might have been enough for Braun to prevail in the arbitration. But Braun’s side went one step further. He and his lawyers, sources say, offered a DNA sample that could have been compared to the urine sample to determine whether the urine came from Braun. It was a bold move by Braun attorneys David Cornwell and Christopher Lyons. But instead of agreeing to a DNA test that would have determined conclusively whether it was Braun’s urine that tested positive, MLB declined the offer. The refusal to agree to the DNA test likely pushed the arbitrator toward a ruling for Braun. It was also a major first step for Braun in the effort to clear his name. He and his attorneys can now argue that he was clean and that MLB deliberately denied him the opportunity to prove that scientifically.

Odd.

If we accept those two pieces of information as true (which I have no reason to doubt), it’s a bit of a no-brainer for the arbitrator, in my opinion. Not only could Braun have potentially won solely on the grounds that the entire methodology was compromised by the handler of the sample, but additionally, the test results were duplicated by the defense, giving ample reason to suspect that the positive test was useless. Adding the fact that the MLB didn’t allow Braun to prove his innocence by checking the DNA to confirm it was his urine, and everything Das decided becomes quite clear.

Even if you don’t fully believe Carroll or Munson, because for whatever reason you think you have sources that they don’t, it’s more than enough doubt for me to not write articles that basically say Braun’s definitely still guilty.

And no, I’m not talking about angry Twitter commenters or angry bloggers, but mainstream sportswriters (1/2/3/4/5).

Why? Who knows? Perhaps blindly believing Braun got off the hook on a technicality is more interesting than the details of how and why things actually happened.

Either way, it’s inexplicable to me that the process worked and Braun still ends up as the bad guy to 89% of the people out there (at least according to one poll). The public chooses to spew religiously charged hate, conspiracy theories, and goes around blindly calling him a liar when they don’t even bother to check out all the facts and what we actually know.

People know for sure that he used steroids, people know for sure that he got off on a technicality, and people know for sure that he lied to them at his press conference. Apparently just like they knew for sure he was going to be suspended for 50 games.

I guess it’s just frustrating to me to see the blatant denial of logic and reason that’s thrown right in their faces, all so that they can feel okay with the assumptions they ran with after the positive test results were announced. The fervent and insistent nature of it just shocks me.

Actually, I take that back. I guess it’s par for the course now.

Spring Training is here, which means all other sports matter less, and wow, there’s way too much news out of the Los Angeles Dodgers camp already.

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Ken Gurnick of MLB.com reports that Clayton Kershaw will start on Opening Day, which is basically the biggest Captain Obvious moment of the season.

Then Matt Kemp told the media that he doesn’t want the 2011 NL MVP Award if Ryan Braun is suspended.

“I would want to win by them voting me,” Kemp said. “I wouldn’t want them to just, ‘Oh, this person did that so how about we just give the award to this person?’ I don’t think it should work that way.

“If it is that way, then it should be a vacant award for 2011, no one should win the MVP award in the National League.”

Kemp said he hopes Braun is vindicated.

“I know Braun,” he said. “We’ve always been cool. We’ve been friends. He’s been one of my favorite players in the big leagues. I hope it’s not true.”

Kemp has handled this situation extremely well up to this point and that just cements it.

It wasn’t all rainbows and kittens though, as Dylan Hernandez of the Los Angeles Times reported that Blake Hawksworth won’t be ready to start the season because a second operation was necessary to clean up his elbow.

—–

As far as roles and playing time go, Eric Stephen of True Blue LA has a ton of news.

“Javy, to me, didn’t do anything last year to say he shouldn’t be that guy,” manager Don Mattingly said on Tuesday. “More than anything, Kenley was saying ‘Hey I can do that too’ by the way he pitched. It’s a good problem for us to have.”

“Javy has been here one year,” said Mattingly. “It’s a competition, you still have to perform. There have been a lot of guys in their first year were really good and struggled the next year. Kenley was a perfect example, as he wasn’t himself [to start 2011] that he was the year before. It took him a half a season with little problems here and there, and he was in the minors for a little bit, but next thing you know he emerged back to what we had seen the year before.”

Javy Guerra will be the closer over Kenley Jansen to start the season, and while Jansen is the better pitcher, I don’t have a problem with this, as it gives the team better flexibility in regards to Jansen’s usage.

“It’s not like he’s a bad guy, or you don’t like him. But to this point he’s been tough to count on,” Mattingly said of relief pitcher Ronald Belisario, who is here in camp, but was not available for reporters as he left for a dental appointment. “It’s a step in the right direction that he’s here.”

The much maligned Ronald Belisario was actually there in person in real life at Spring Training and it’s important because if he looks anything like his old self, Hawksworth’s injury might have just opened up a spot.

—–

In the world of position players, both starting and backup roles are at stake.

Jerry Sands doesn’t necessarily need to win an everyday spot in the lineup to make the opening day roster, but Mattingly said he needs to have a certain number of plate appearances to justify a spot on the big league roster, as the club wants Sands to play nearly every day. While Mattingly shied away from committing to a plan of sitting Andre Ethier and Loney against southpaws, the manager said that figuring out a way to get Sands enough at-bats will be one of his projects in camp.

I have a way to get Jerry Sands at bats: don’t play Juan Rivera.

The backup shortstop will be Jerry Hairston Jr., as Mattingly wants to keep Juan Uribe at third base. Should Dee Gordon go down for any extended period of time, the club would turn to Justin Sellers.

Jerry Hairston Jr. is a fine utility infielder, but that paragraph makes me want to barf. Juan Uribe at third all the time and Justin Sellers is the backup in case Dee Gordon doesn’t take off like they expect.

Could be bad.

Finally, it was announced that Gordon will hit first, while Kemp hits third.

I’ll explore this later, but this could be a bad idea. Gordon got better later in the season, but it was a tiny sample size, and as a whole, he has always struggled at taking a walk. Furthermore, contrary to popular belief, putting your best hitter in the three hole is not optimal either.

Dude is like fucking Neo with the media now.

So proud.

—

Video is from Miller Park Drunk.

Matt Kemp finished second to Ryan Braun in the 2011 NL MVP Award voting that was revealed by the BBWAA today.

Obviously, I disagree, and I stated my reasoning back in September, but the way the voting played out basically showed why he lost.

As you can see, Roy Halladay finished in ninth with Clayton Kershaw in twelfth, this despite Kershaw actually winning the 2011 NL Cy Young Award.

So the logic of most voters was that since Matt Kemp’s teammates sucked, he didn’t deserve the 2011 NL MVP Award.

Sweet, right?

—–

Anyway, with Matt Kemp signing his 8 year/160 million dollar extension last week, the 2011 NL MVP Award second place finisher will be in a Dodgers uniform for a while, hopefully giving him ample opportunity to add to his trophy case.

For all intents and purposes, the 2011 NL MVP Award race is a battle between Matt Kemp and Ryan Braun, both of whom I believe are correctly identified as the two players pacing the field.

As you likely already know, I’m a huge fan of both the Los Angeles Dodgers and Matt Kemp, so you might not be inclined to care what I think about an awards race that involves both my favorite team and my favorite player. However, I’m also a fan of objective analysis, so I will be doing my best to stay away from bias in this argument.

As such, I figure the best way to start (and in many ways, end) this discussion, is to lay out the objective numbers right off the bat (no pun).

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*Click To Enlarge*

oWAR

wOBA (park adjusted), wOBA+, and wRAA are all taken from Stat Corner. I choose Stat Corner because their park adjustments are shown all the way through.

bWAR

UBR is taken from FanGraphs and EQBRR is taken from Baseball Prospectus. I have subtracted EQSBR from EQBRR so that both UBR and EQBRR are without influence from stolen bases, which is already factored into oWAR.

dWAR

DRS is from FanGraphs and FRAA is from Baseball Prospectus. I choose these two metrics because I believe they best objectively evaluate defense.

POS

Taken from FanGraphs.

REP

Taken from FanGraphs.

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You probably noticed that I created my own version of WAR by using what I feel are the best metrics we currently have at our disposal. Going forward, I will be using this same WAR calculation methodology until it’s shown it can be improved upon.

Anyway, my own formula of WAR has Matt Kemp at 8.4 and Ryan Braun at 7.4, a clear advantage as far as objective analysis goes. Additionally, before any accusations of bias seep in, I would just like to state that the far easier way to go about this would be for me to cite fWAR (8.7/7.8) or rWAR (10.0/7.7) or WARP (8.1/6.9), metrics that all have Matt Kemp beating Ryan Braun quite handily.

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As far as whether being on a playoff team should matter or not, I think the BBWAA already spelled that out clearly enough.

Dear Voter:

There is no clear-cut definition of what Most Valuable means. It is up to the individual voter to decide who was the Most Valuable Player in each league to his team. The MVP need not come from a division winner or other playoff qualifier.

The rules of the voting remain the same as they were written on the first ballot in 1931:

1. Actual value of a player to his team, that is, strength of offense and defense.

2. Number of games played.

3. General character, disposition, loyalty and effort.

4. Former winners are eligible.

5. Members of the committee may vote for more than one member of a team.

You are also urged to give serious consideration to all your selections, from 1 to 10. A 10th-place vote can influence the outcome of an election. You must fill in all 10 places on your ballot. Only regular-season performances are to be taken into consideration.

Keep in mind that all players are eligible for MVP, including pitchers and designated hitters.

Now how about the common belief that Matt Kemp played with no pressure and Ryan Braun did?

I think Joe Posnanski effectively tackled that already.

If you’ve read this blog at all you know: I’ve covered a lot of bad teams in my life. I’ve been around some good ones, too. And as far as “pressure” goes, well, from my observation, it’s not even close. There is infinitely more pressure on players on lousy teams than on good ones. Obviously, this depends on how you define pressure, but if the textbook definition of pressure is “the feeling of stressful urgency cause by the necessity of achieving something,” well, absolutely, there’s way more pressure on the lousy teams.

…

Think about it: What pressure is there on players in pennant races? The pressure to win? Sure. But players come to the ballpark energized. Everyone on the team is into it. The crowd is alive and hopeful. The afternoon crackles. Anticipation. Excitement. There’s nothing in sports quite like the energy in a baseball clubhouse during a pennant race. Players arrive early to prepare. Teammates help each other. Everyone’s in a good mood. There’s a feeling swirling around: This is exactly the childhood dream. The added importance of the moment could, in theory I suppose, create extra stress. But the reality I’ve seen is precisely the opposite. The importance sharpens the senses, feeds the enthusiasm, makes the day brighter. Baseball is a long season. Anything to give a day a little gravity, to separate it from yesterday, to make it all more interesting — anything like that, I think, is much more likely to make it EASIER to play closer to one’s peak.

A losing clubhouse? Exactly the opposite. The downward pressure is enormous and overwhelming — after all, who cares? The town has moved on. A Hawaiian vacation awaits. Teammates are fighting to keep their jobs or fighting to impress someone on another team or just plain fighting. The manager might be worried about his job. The reporters are few, and they’re negative. Smaller crowds make it easier to hear the drunken critics. Support is much harder to come by, and there is constant, intense force demanding that you just stop trying so hard. After all: Why take that extra BP? You’ve got the swing down. Why study a few extra minutes of film? You’ve faced that hitter before. Why take that extra base? Why challenge him on that 3-1 pitch? Why? You’re down 9-3 anyway.

It’s absolutely AMAZING to me when a player puts up a fantastic year even when the team around him stinks.

That’s all well and good, but how does this relate specifically to the cases of Matt Kemp/Dodgers and Ryan Braun Brewers?

Jon Weisman put forth the effort to show how the Dodgers games did in fact matter.

All that being said, the idea that the Dodgers’ games have been meaningless this season is a complete fiction.

They were clearly meaningful in April and May, before anyone had broken free in the National League West.

They were also meaningful later in the season, even after the losing began. If not for Arizona’s remarkable breakthrough this season, something that no one could have guaranteed, the Dodgers’ second-half rally would have put them in the thick of the race. With five games to go in the season, the Dodgers have 79 victories, which means they still have the chance of matching their division-winning total of 2008 and surpassing the Padres’ division-winning total of 2005.

When, exactly, were the Dodgers supposed to stop trying?

But even if you concede that this team was not going to go to the playoffs, the indispensable point is this: The Dodgers have had meaning all season as an opponent.

From April through September, the Dodgers played games that mattered because winning or losing had a direct effect on the pennant races. In addition to their own postseason dreams, there were also postseason dreams for their opponents. On Tuesday, San Francisco came to Los Angeles, having won eight games in a row in making a late run for the playoffs. With two out in the first inning, Matt Kemp singled and then scored a run off Tim Lincecum in what became a 2-1 victory that severely damaged their hopes.

Then, a day after the Giants beat the Dodgers to keep their hopes alive and a day before San Francisco had a showdown series with Arizona, Kemp went 4 for 4 with three doubles and a home run in a Dodger victory that was crushing for the Giants.

You want to tell San Francisco’s fans that that didn’t count?

The Dodgers were not eliminated from postseason contention until September 17. Every game they played to that point counted for themselves. In their entire 2011 season, they will have played eight games – two against Pittsburgh, three in their current series against San Diego and three to finish the season against NL West champion Arizona – that had no bearing on the postseason (though keeping in mind they still mean something to the fans who watch).

Ryan Braun’s Milwaukee Brewers, who like the Diamondbacks clinched their division title Friday, will play five games this season that have no bearing on the postseason.

That’s a three-game difference out of 162. Three games in which Kemp’s performance mattered less to the playoff race than Braun’s.

Generally speaking, it seems to me that whenever you see a writer arguing over the semantics of the word “valuable”, it’s just code for “I’ll pick whoever I like the best, objective evidence be damned”, which I suppose is their right, but I think it’s a damned shame.

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It’s a shame because over the course of the 2011 season, Matt Kemp has essentially provided as much offensive value as Ryan Braun has, and Kemp has been the better baserunner of the two. True, Kemp has played worse defense, but he has done so at a position that is significantly more difficult, and he has done this while playing in more games than Braun.

While I’m not against choosing with your gut or with a narrative or with your eyes when the objective analysis is neck and neck (like it seems to be in the 2011 AL MVP Award race), in this case, Kemp’s advantage over Braun is clear cut and obvious.

So does Matt Kemp deserve to win the 2011 NL MVP Award?

Yup.

Credit: The LFP