Baseball fans love to talk about clutch plays and clutch players, and Dodgers fans are no exception, but like with a pitcher’s best and worst pitches, there tends to be a lack of evidence presented. As such, I decided to find some basis for clutch plays and clutch players, courtesy of the WPA and Clutch statistics.

WPA

Most sabermetric statistics are context neutral — they do not consider the situation of a particular event or how some plays are more crucial to a win than others. While wOBA rates all home runs as equal, we know intuitively that a home run in the third inning of a blowout is less important to that win than a home run in the bottom of the ninth inning of a close game. Win Probability Added (WPA) captures this difference by measuring how individual players affect their team’s win expectancy on a per-play basis.

Clutch

In the words of David Appelman, this calculation measures, “…how much better or worse a player does in high leverage situations than he would have done in a context neutral environment.” It also compares a player against himself, so a player who hits .300 in high leverage situations when he’s an overall .300 hitter is not considered clutch.

So that’s the foundation for this post, and since that’s now been established, let’s get on with it, shall we?

As always, visuals have been provided because, let’s be honest, everything is better with visuals.

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I feel like it’s necessary to point out that none of this is predictive of the future or telling of the past. It’s a post about stuff that happened in 2012. That’s all.

In other words, please don’t link back to this while saying, “LOOK! THIS DUDE IS SO CLUTCH, BRO!” No.

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Top Five Clutchiest McClutchington Outs Of 2012

1. Kenley Jansen – 46.8%

The Dodgers were clinging onto an 8-7 lead with one down in the bottom of the ninth and runners on first and third. At this point, you’d almost be happy with a tied game.

One Jason Kubel swing later and it was a win instead.

2. Javy Guerra – 31.6%

Tied at 4-4 in the top of the ninth inning, the Padres got runners on first and second with nobody out. Not looking good for the Dodgers.

But then the impossible happened and … well … you can see it for yourself.

3. Ronald Belisario – 27.5%

Tied at two in the bottom of the eighth inning and facing a bases loaded jam with one out, Ronald Belisario gets out of it thanks to what basically amounts to luck.

Matt Holliday smashed a liner, but it was right at Mark Ellis, who doubled up the runner at second.

4. Kenley Jansen – 24.7%

With runners on second and third in the top of the ninth and one down, the Dodgers are clinging to a 6-5 lead when Kenley Jansen induces a harmless infield pop-up.

5. Brandon League – 20.0%

Tied at three with one down in the bottom of the tenth and a runner on third, Brandon League keeps him there by inducing a strikeout.

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It shouldn’t be a surprise to anybody that the most clutch plays of the season all went to relievers.

That said, I am shocked that Javy Guerra‘s play wasn’t tops on this list, since it’s almost never that you induce three outs on one pitch.

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Top Five Clutchiest Dodgers Of 2012 – Ball Thrower Division

1. Brandon League – 0.70
2. Josh Lindblom – 0.47
3. Nate Eovaldi – 0.34
4. Shawn Tolleson – 0.34
5. Stephen Fife – 0.32

Paco Rodriguez, Alfredo Amezaga, and Peter Moylan, three Dodgers with shots at making the Opening Day roster, have withdrawn from the World Baseball Classic to focus on making the club.

With Scott Elbert rehabbing, Paco in particular is competing for the spot of left-handed reliever, though J.P. Howell would appear to be the front-runner there. Moylan is in the running for the bullpen as well, no matter how deep it is, simply due to the fact that he’s a veteran (see: Jamey Wright). Amezaga would appear to be a long-shot to make the outfield reserves on a team with such a high payroll, but the Dodgers don’t actually have a lot of options there, especially those who can play center field. Barring a trade, it basically boils down to him, Tony Gwynn Jr., Elian Herrera, and Jeremy Moore. In other words, hopefully there’s a trade.

Paco was slated to compete for Spain, Amezaga for Mexico, and Moylan for Australia, but at the risk of missing most of Spring Training, all three Dodgers on the roster bubble decided against participating. That leaves five Dodgers who are still in the WBC in Hanley Ramirez (Dominican Republic), Adrian Gonzalez (Mexico), Luis Cruz (Mexico), Nick Punto (Italy), and Ronald Belisario (Venezuela), none of whom figure to be in danger of losing spots.

The Dodgers pitchers and catchers report to Camelback Ranch today, on Feb. 12, which officially kicks off the baseball season for the team, and tomorrow, on Feb. 13, they’ll have their first workout, in which I like to imagine Aaron Harang lumbering through conditioning drills like a monkey.

The rest of the team will report to camp on Feb. 15, and Spring Training will be in full swing the following day, on Feb. 16, as they get their first team workout in, which hopefully includes Josh Beckett running around a lot, so he doesn’t look like this:

The team’s first Spring Training game will take place a week after the whole team reports, on Feb. 23 against the White Sox, who they share the facility with. On March 5, the minor-league portion of pitchers and catchers report, while everybody else comes in on March 11.

The last game of Spring Training will come on March 29 against the Angels (ANAHEIM!), with Opening Day following shortly at home against the rival Giants on April 1. I’m eternally glad that the Dodgers open with them at home, because I would puke all over myself if I was forced to watch the Giants having a celebration or something.

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The daily schedule on game days, via Dodgers press release:

Afternoon Games (1:05 p.m. starts):

Dodger BP: Until 11:15 a.m.
Visitor BP: 11:15 a.m.-12:15 p.m.
Visitor Infield: 12:20 p.m.-12:30 p.m.
Dodger Infield: 12:30 p.m.-12:40 p.m.

Night Games (7:05 p.m. starts):

Dodger BP: Until 5:15 p.m.
Visitor BP: 5:15 p.m.-6:15 p.m.
Visitor Infield: 6:20 p.m.-6:30 p.m.
Dodger Infield: 6:30 p.m.-6:40 p.m.

That’s not all that’s going on during this spring though, as on March 1 the World Baseball Classic will start with Australia playing Taiwan. The tournament is primarily relevant to Dodger fans because of players like Adrian Gonzalez (Mexico), Luis Cruz (Mexico), Hanley Ramirez (Dominican Republic), Ronald Belisario (Venezuela), Nick Punto (Italy), and Paco Rodriguez (Spain).

Not sure it affects Punto or A-Gon much, and it’s a miracle that Belisario is even in America at this time, but I doubt Cruz or Paco will benefit from not being in camp for their first Spring Training ever with real expectations, plus Hanley not ever playing shortstop the spring after playing horrible shortstop in 2012 is bad news (as has been said over and over).

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Additionally, via Roberto Baly of Vin Scully Is My Homeboy, here are the Dodgers home and away Spring Training caps.

Loving the home caps.

The 2013 projection for the Dodgers from Dan Szymborski‘s ZiPS system was released last week, and given that it’s probably my favorite forecasting tool, it’s worth a look to see how the team fared.

Forecasting is not a complete science, obviously, and I’ll address some of the potential pitfalls as we go along, but it’s better to use objective tools like these than the hopes/dreams of fans or the bitterness/wishes of haters.

To start us off, how does the team fare, generally speaking? A solid playoff contender, for sure, but a super team? Doesn’t seem likely.

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The Field Players

Despite all the hype over the recent acquisitions, the key cogs in this machine are still Clayton Kershaw and Matt Kemp. It’s a promising sign then, that Kemp projects at a 144 OPS+ and the system has confidence in him continuing to put up offensive numbers in the ~.900 OPS range. His defense in center still lags below average, but his bat more than makes up for it. His playing time projection has dropped due to his injury woes last season, and quite frankly, it’s hard to fault it for that. Regardless, he still figures to be the most valuable field player on the team.

Adrian Gonzalez is slated to be another bright spot, as ZiPS pegs him to bounceback a bit, though not as much as some want, clocking in at an ~.830 OPS/128 OPS+. That would still be his lowest OPS+ since 2008 (besides 2012, of course), but it’s a marked improvement considering his age and negatively trending skills. A-Gon compensates for that lagging bat a bit by putting up plus defense almost worth a win by itself. Hanley Ramirez factors in as yet another bounceback candidate, projecting at a 115 OPS+, which is an upgrade over last year’s 106 and is closer to his pre-2011 production. Defensively, even his horribad -8 run defensive rating is optimistic to me, as he was truly terrible with the glove last year. Given that I already wanted to barf seeing him trying to turn a double play in 2012, I wouldn’t be surprised at all to see him put up horrid defensive numbers after basically not playing the position all of spring.

Unfortunately, that’s where a lot of the offensive optimism ends. Luis Cruz checks in at 84 OPS+ (106 last year), which will anger many fans, but is completely reasonable given the track record. He remains valuable through plus defense, though given the sample size, there’s reason to be skeptical there as well. A.J. Ellis at 96 OPS+ (118) is another depressing but completely logical projection, as evidenced by everybody’s surprise in 2012 at his potent bat. Andre Ethier at 112 OPS+ (123) is hard to figure for me, because he has been consistently putting up ~120 OPS+ seasons even if it has come down from the ~130 OPS+ range two years ago. I suppose the projection system thinks he’ll get old in a hurry … or maybe it just thinks he’ll face an inordinately high amount of lefties. Mark Ellis at 81 OPS+ (93) shouldn’t be much of a surprise considering he’s 36 and put up an 80 OPS+ at Coors Field in 2011.

The last guy of the starters is Carl Crawford, who is the enigma of the 2013 season. He checks in at 104, which is notable because it’s basically his career OPS+ and it’s about what he did in limited time in 2012 over in Boston. That’s of particular note for me, because what he did in Boston in 2012 can be attributed to a mechanical fix that I pointed out in an article for Baseball Prospectus. Understandably, his playing time checks in low, but if he can produce like he did in 2012 but over a whole season, the Dodgers will be much better for it.

Overall, after fixing the playing time of A.J., adjusting Ethier’s offense up a bit, and adjusting Hanley’s defense down a bit, the starting lineup totaled about 22 WAR.

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The Bench & The Prospects

Assuming a bench of Tim Federowicz, Scott Van Slyke or Alex Castellanos, Jerry Hairston Jr., Nick Punto, and Skip Schumaker, we’re looking at around 3 WAR here after playing time is adjusted back to realistic bench levels. I’m guessing Alfredo Amezaga or Tony Gwynn Jr. work their way in somehow, but a five-man bench seems likely initially if the Dodgers can’t deal multiple pitchers before the season starts. Neither player would affect the WAR projection much though.

Honestly? I have to hope the Dodgers do something to improve the bench, because the current configuration looks rather mediocre, and the other options are keeping Juan Uribe and/or Elian Herrera. Yuck.

The good news is that Joc Pederson, T-Fed, SVS, and Castle are projected to be solid at the MLB level, though it sees Dee Gordon basically languishing behind.

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The Rotation

Clayton Kershaw is simply a beast, and he figures to check in with a 75 FIP-. This might seem high considering his 2011 and 2012 ERA- figures of 63 and 67, respectively, but when you consider that Felix Hernandez clocks in at 78 FIP- for 2013, you get the picture.

What might surprise is how close new acquisition Zack Greinke comes in behind him, as he figures to put up an FIP- of 81. Granted, he has always projected favorably, as his career FIP- is 80, while his career ERA- is 88, but even adjusting slightly for that, there’s a definite case there for the best 1-2 punch in the majors.

Unfortunately, this is where it gets murky, as Chad Billingsley has the stuff to be the #3, but if I were a betting man, I would bet his elbow implodes before July. He projects at 92 FIP-, which would put him around last year’s performance, which was his arguably his best season since 2008. However, given the nature of his injury and its history in the league, you can basically never rely on him to stay healthy again until he has Tommy John surgery.

Next in the pecking order are Josh Beckett, who comes in below-average at 103, and foreign import Hyun Jin Ryu, who comes in well below-average at 116. As mentioned before, the scouting reports for Beckett match this projection, as he’s no longer a front-line starter due to his decrease in velocity. However, if he can manage to learn to pitch a bit more, he still has the curve to perhaps slot in as a #3 more than a #4. Ryu is a case where I would take any projection with a mound of salt, because there’s hardly anything to base objective projections on. Personally, I don’t think Ryu has the stuff to be a #2, nor do I think he’ll be a #3 on a team with a $250 million payroll, but he should slot in comfortably in the back-end of the rotation for years. I would project something slightly below-average for 2013 and then hope for better.

The rotation is a strong point because it has both arguably the best 1-2 punch in the majors and depth, with Chris Capuano (108 FIP-) and Aaron Harang (114 FIP) presumably traded for upgrades (or maybe kept somehow?), and it checks in at about 17 WAR.

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The Bullpen & The Prospects

As of right now, I’m assuming a bullpen of Brandon League, Kenley Jansen, Ronald Belisario, Javy Guerra, Matt Guerrier, J.P. Howell, and Ted Lilly.

Jansen is the best of the bunch (63 FIP-) and League projects a distant second (92 FIP-), but Belisario has the most upside in these projections (101 FIP-). After that, Guerra, Guerrier, and Howell are all around replacement level. Lilly projects as a league-average pitcher, assuming he’s healthy, which would be a boon to a team that has a ticking time bomb in the rotation.

As far as prospects go, ZiPS thinks Chris Reed could be a replacement-level fill-in right now, but Zach Lee, Matt Magill, and Garrett Gould need more seasoning. And for all of you who have Stephen Fife wet dreams (yes, you’re out there), he projects at a 4.91 FIP, so keep it in your pants.

Speaking of replacement level, that especially applies to the Dodgers bullpen because of Shawn Tolleson, Scott Elbert, Steven Ames, and Paco Rodriguez, so the 4 WAR projection for this pen figures to be solid.

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Team Projection

A replacement-level team figures to win 43 games, and the team with the lowest amount of wins to get into the playoffs last year was the Cardinals at 88 wins, so 42 WAR puts you in the contender range and 45 WAR makes you viable, while 50 WAR will generally make a team a safe bet to be in the postseason. The Dodgers total 46 WAR, which puts them well within the playoff hunt: good but not great.

The Dodgers basically project neck-and-neck with the rival Giants, while the D-Backs lag behind a bit by maybe a half dozen wins or so, but they’re well within striking distance as well.

So make no mistake, the Dodgers recent spending habits did not make them an elite team, as the money simply duct-taped over both a flawed team and farm system depleted by Frank McCourt‘s ownership and Ned Colletti‘s questionable decisions. But that’s not to denigrate the job the new owners have done, as they turned the franchise into a legitimate playoff contender seemingly overnight, which is still saying a lot about what money can do.

Granted, “we gave you a team that has the chance to make the playoffs” is not what fans want to hear, but it’s an acceptable scenario as they lay the foundation to rebuild the franchise the correct way in their own minds. The 2013 projections might not reflect world-beaters like most seem to expect, but it’s a projection based on historical trends rather than hopes and dreams.

The 2013 Dodgers are indeed a team with a lot of upside, and if everything breaks correctly, they could very well end up being one of the best teams in the league, but they also carry a ton of inherent age and injury risk, which is why the projections come in understandably conservative. Either way, if nothing else, this team figures to be never boring.

As fans of the Dodgers, we’re always analyzing which pitchers have the best and worst pitches, but we normally base that on nothing but our own feelings at the moment, so I decided to take a more objective look at things.

For a pitch to qualify for these rankings, I used a 200-pitch minimum for starters and a 50-pitch minimum for relievers. The metric used to measure pitch effectiveness is True Average (TAv), which is basically like wOBA. League average performance is set at .260, and the metric doesn’t include baserunning.

Additionally, to prevent the post from being solely numbers-based, and one that would have been mind-numbingly boring, I decided to provide visual evidence as well.

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Worst Overall Pitches

Shawn Tolleson – Sinker – .395 TAv

Mike MacDougal – Sinker – .342 TAv

Matt Guerrier – Fastball – .320 TAv

Relief pitchers have smaller sample sizes, so they are prone to fluctuations, but they have the advantage of appearing in short bursts and limiting their arsenal to only their best pitches.

So … uh … this is TERRIBLE.

.395 is like 40 points higher than Mike Trout in 2012 for fucks sake.

H-h-how?

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Worst Individual Pitches

Fastball

Matt Guerrier – .320 TAv

*Visual Is Above*

Shawn Tolleson – .273
Javy Guerra – .256
Scott Elbert – .237
Ronald Belisario – .082

Ugh.

Sinker

Shawn Tolleson – .395 TAv

*Visual Is Above*

Mike MacDougal – .342
Brandon League – .280
Todd Coffey – .263
Randy Choate – .262
Jamey Wright – .258
Ronald Belisario – .225

No … just no.

Cutter

Jamey Wright – .258 TAv

Scott Elbert – .242
Javy Guerra – .208
Kenley Jansen – .187
Matt Guerrier – .139

Curve

Javy Guerra – .271 TAv

Jamey Wright – .171

Finishing last out of two isn’t bad, but giving up a .271 on a curve as a reliever is.

Slider

Kenley Jansen – .236 TAv

Jamey Wright – .215
Todd Coffey – .214
Shawn Tolleson – .206
Brandon League – .147
Ronald Belisario – .121
Randy Choate – .058

I actually think he could benefit from throwing this more often because it’s a quality pitch. Not hanging it is a different story, but how is he supposed to learn command of it if he never uses it?

Change

None Qualified

Splitter

Brandon League – .096 TAv

He’s the only reliever that qualified for this pitch, so I guess he’s technically the best and the worst, but considering his split was the second-most effective pitch by a reliever for the team in 2012, I’m pretty sure he gets a pass.

As fans of the Dodgers, we’re always analyzing which pitchers have the best and worst pitches, but we normally base that on nothing but our own feelings at the moment, so I decided to take a more objective look at things.

For a pitch to qualify for these rankings, I used a 200-pitch minimum for starters and a 50-pitch minimum for relievers. The metric used to measure pitch effectiveness is True Average (TAv), which is basically like wOBA. League average performance is set at .260, and the metric doesn’t include baserunning.

Additionally, to prevent the post from being solely numbers-based, and one that would have been mind-numbingly boring, I decided to provide visual evidence as well.

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Best Overall Pitches

Randy Choate – Slider – .058 TAv

Brandon League – Splitter – .096 TAv

Ronald Belisario – Slider – .121 TAv

The first two pitches should come as no surprise given that they are basically what both pitchers make their money off of. However, Ronald Belisario’s slider? Really? Yeah, but I’m guessing that’s almost entirely based on how surprised hitters are to see it when they’re expecting nothing but 95-97 mph sinking fastballs.

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Best Individual Pitches

Fastball

Scott Elbert – .237 TAv

Javy Guerra – .256
Shawn Tolleson – .273
Matt Guerrier – .320

Ronald Belisario’s .082 was disqualified because I’m about 99% sure these pitches were simply identified incorrectly. In any case, I’m surprised by how the Dodgers have zero fireballing fastball relievers.

Sinker

Ronald Belisario – .225 TAv

Jamey Wright – .258
Randy Choate – .262
Todd Coffey – .263
Brandon League – .280
Mike MacDougal – .342
Shawn Tolleson – .395

To have everybody know the pitch is coming and to still beat hitters with it is amazing.

Cutter

Kenley Jansen – .187 TAv

Javy Guerra – .208
Scott Elbert – .242
Jamey Wright – .258

Matt Guerrier actually had a .139, but he barely met the minimum and Kenley Jansen’s cutter is his main pitch and was still below .200, which is silly. Also, I’m biased and wanted to show that GIF. Deal with it.

Curve

Jamey Wright – .171 TAv

Javy Guerra – .271

Slider

Randy Choate – .058 TAv

*Visual Is Above*

Ronald Belisario – .121
Brandon League – .147
Shawn Tolleson – .206
Todd Coffey – .214
Jamey Wright – .215
Kenley Jansen – .236

Unfair to lefties, really.

Change

None Qualified

Splitter

Brandon League – .096 TAv

*Visual Is Above*

When he has got his command working, it’s a filthy, filthy pitch.

The Dodgers came to terms on contracts with both A.J. Ellis (1-year, $2 million) and Ronald Belisario (1-year, $1.45 million) on Friday. Both players avoided arbitration by signing, as Chad covered.

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Austin Gallagher was released by the Dodgers. On Friday, he received a 50-game suspension from baseball for testing positive for methylhexaneamine, a banned substance. The team also released Edwin Contreras.

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Sandy Koufax will return to the Dodgers organization as a special advisor to Mark Walter, and while the PR part of this is great and all, stuff like the following passage is far more interesting:

“For our young players and our veterans to be able to tap Sandy’s expertise and counsel during Spring Training and throughout the season will provide yet another tremendous resource in our efforts to strengthen our club,” said general manager Ned Colletti.

Former Dodgers pitcher Josh Lindblom illustrated Koufax’s teaching talents last spring while relating a bullpen session he had in 2010. With the usual pitching coaches offering tips from behind the mound, one noticed Lindblom struggling with his breaking ball release and offered some tips. Lindblom, focused on the plate and not turning around to face the coaches, tried to implement each suggestion.

“One of them says, ‘Imagine a bucket on home plate and throw the curveball into the bucket,’” Lindblom recalled. “It made sense at the time. So I spun the ball into the bucket. It worked. I turned around to see who it was, and I was like, ‘Holy smoke, it’s Sandy Koufax.’

“My focus intensified when I realized it was a guy who had one of the best curveballs in history. I locked in and focused. And when I struggle, I still think about that and another thing he said — ‘See how many times the ball spins before it gets to the plate. That makes you really focus on snapping it off.’

“You hear stories about hitters saying they could hear the laces spinning on Koufax’s fastball. He sees two pitches and makes a suggestion and you make an adjustment that quickly. He’s great at simplifying things. He doesn’t make it rocket science.”

Here’s hoping that some of his lessons rub off on the pitching staff.

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Greg Zakwin is the founder of the site Plaschke Thy Sweater Is Argyle. Follow him on Twitter @ArgyledPlaschke.

Ronald Belisario & A.J. Ellis have agreed to terms with the Dodgers, thus avoiding arbitration, report Ken Gurnick of MLB.com and Jon Heyman of CBS Sports.

Belisario’s contract is for one year and $1.45 million, while Ellis signed on a one-year, $2 million contract. Assuming he can stay clear of trouble, Belisario figures to be a key component in the back-end of the team’s bullpen (3.09 2012 FIP), but that assumption could be troublesome given his history. Ellis, as made obvious by the meme above, became somewhat of a folk hero in 2012, clocking in at 3.8 WAR for the year seemingly out of nowhere. He’ll be hard-pressed to duplicate that performance, but if he gets anywhere close, he’ll continue to be a bargain at an offense-starved position.

The Dodgers have now not been to arbitration since 2007 with Joe Beimel.

Grantland: Jonah Keri on the riches of the Dodgers and the curse that comes along with it.

That, in a nutshell, is The Curse of Plenty. The Dodgers have more money to spend than anyone, without enough top players to go after. They’ve clogged their roster with merely decent talent at multiple positions because their general manager is impulsive and overeager to spend that money without properly gauging the market for the few elite talents out there. One great way to find those top players is to develop them yourself, but the Dodgers have shipped away several strong prospects to make reactionary trades, such as the Gonzalez deal.

This is still likely to be a good team, one that’s in the hunt for a playoff spot. But because of a few shortsighted moves and a market that can’t provide the great players they crave, the Dodgers may well find themselves back in familiar territory next fall: looking up at the Giants, and wondering where it all went wrong.

Been saying for a while now that all the hype and excitement is nice, but when it comes down to game time, the 2013 Dodgers are no lock, just like the 2012 Dodgers weren’t a lock after all the trades.

Did they get better? Yes, absolutely. However, even on paper, it’s nowhere near the best team in baseball, and it’s certainly no certainty to even win the division. That’s just the reality of the current team.

Now this situation is absolutely preferable to the previous situation, but optimism shouldn’t breed delusion.

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Feelin’ Kinda Blue: Dustin Nosler points out that for all the improvements in the off-season, the Dodgers bench is still mediocre.

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True Blue LA: Looking at A.J. Ellis and arbitration. He seems to be looking at around $3 million. A deserved raise.

True Blue LA: Analyzing Ronald Belisario and arbitration. He seems to be looking at a range between $1 million and $1.5 million. That is, of course, assuming the Dodgers think he can make it back into America. Who knows what his status is since he recently got kicked off his Winter League team in Venezuela.

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Baseball Prospectus: Do you scoff at all those horrid FOX “scouting reports” for pitchers? Of course you do. Well, Sam Miller has got you covered.

Kenley Jansen

Kenley Jansen entered 2012 as the set-up man with elite stuff, freed up to face the opponents’ best hitters should they be due up before the ninth inning. It was the perfect scenario, considering the closer role is a vastly overrated entity. Though Jansen was slotted correctly, he quickly found himself as the closer following some early struggles in that role by Javy Guerra.

Jansen closed 2012 with his third-straight dominant season, posting a 2.40 FIP and 1.81 SIERA while whiffing a magnificent 13.71/9 IP. He appeared in a career-high 65 games and 65 innings, and though he allowed a few more long-balls (six homers after three in 2011 and none in 2010), he more importantly cut down impressively on his free passes for a third consecutive campaign (5.00/4.36/3.05 per nine innings). Also of note is his continued ability to induce infield popups, which has always been excellent (16% in 2010 & 10.9% in 2011), as he reached a new career best in 2012 (19.4 IFFB%).

To put it another way, as infield popups are essentially as effective as strikeouts, Jansen “whiffed” roughly 60% of the hitters he faced in 2012. That is insane, obviously.

Though all has been well from a between-the-lines perspective, Jansen has seen his short career put in jeopardy multiple times due to a heart ailment that has afflicted him for parts of the 2011 regular season, Spring Training of 2012, and most recently the 2012 regular season. While Jansen has thankfully been able to return from all three bouts, the irregular heartbeat has been recurring, which is troublesome for his health and career prospects.

Jansen and the Dodgers have taken action though, as Kenley recently underwent heart surgery to correct the problem. All seems well thus far, as no complications from the surgery have been revealed, and all reports indicate he’ll be ready to go for 2013. He’ll recuperate for at least three months prior to resuming baseball activities, and with his electric stuff, fantastic ability to get hitters to swing-and-miss, and three straight seasons of improving WAR (1.1/1.3/1.9), the sky is the limit for the former backstop as he continues to refine his new craft.

Brandon League

Acquired for Leon Landry and Logan Bawcom, Brandon League arrived having been stripped of his closer duties in Seattle. His 2012 with the Mariners was a season typical of your average middle reliever, as League was fanning only 5.44 per nine while walking far too many (3.83/9 IP), and had a 3.45 FIP and 4.43 SIERA. I was against the trade when it happened and League did nothing to assuage my mind in his first few outings, as he was charged with six earned runs through his first seven games with Los Angeles.

League rebounded to end 2012 strongly though, allowing one earned run from August 21 on. His strikeout rate ticked up in LA to 8.89/9 IP, the highest it had been since 2009, though he walked even more at 4.61/9
IP. His new-found success was attributed to mechanical flaws that were corrected by Rick Honeycutt and his staff.

Whether that’s true and whether his success carries over into the future or not, the 29-year-old heads into free agency banking that teams will be looking at his recent performance over his career track record that consists of 6.71 K/9 IP, 3.10 BB/9 IP, a 3.81 FIP, and a WAR that’s eclipsed 1.0 twice.

Ronald Belisario

After a time spent pretending to be Tony Montana, Ronald Belisario returned to the States and MLB in 2012. Following a 25-game suspension for violating baseball’s drug policy, Belisario made his season debut in early May and would go on to appear in a bullpen-high 68 games and 71 innings.

Belisario posted a 3.09 FIP and 2.80 SIERA, and after starting the year out-pitching his peripherals and shiny ERA, had a very good season after his year off. He fanned just shy of a batter per inning while walking 3.68 per nine and inducing a mess of ground balls (64.5 GB%), which resulted in just three homers allowed in ’12.

Belisario, after all of his troubles, is line for a nice raise from the $480,000 he made on a one-year deal in 2012. He qualified for Super Two status and is arbitration eligible, and he will be an integral part of the pen in 2013.

Javy Guerra

Javy Guerra entered 2012 as the Dodgers closer, though not the most talented reliever on the team, which is perfectly fine and is actually my preferred method of bullpen management. Following a rocky start and a liner to the head, Guerra was removed in favor of Jansen in early May.

After allowing eight earned runs in his first 14 games, which included three blown saves and a pair of losses, Guerra settled down before succumbing to a knee injury that ended his season in early September.

Though Guerra’s season is largely viewed as a failure by many, his 2012 was, in actuality, little different from his 2011 season. His strikeout rate increased (7.33/7.40), his HR/9 IP rate improved (0.39/0.20), and his FIP (3.30/3.34) and WAR remained stable (0.9/0.8).

Guerra’s “struggles” were two-fold. First, the self-inflicted portion: Guerra walked too many guys in 2012, as his BB/9 IP jumped from a high 3.47 to a terrible 4.60 per nine. That must be corrected for Javy to see more success. Second, his BABIP increased to .321 from .261. In other words, after getting lucky in 2011, 2012 saw that luck shift entirely the other way. There is almost certainly a happy medium, and in that place, Guerra is a solid contributor to the pen as a middle reliever.

Scott Elbert

After an excellent 2011 that ended with a new established role in the pen, Scott Elbert finished 2012 on the DL with an elbow injury that felled him from late August on. I wouldn’t be shocked if the elbow bothered him all year, as his numbers fell across the board.

Elbert struck out less per nine (9.18/7.99), gave up more homers (0.27/0.83), and saw a significant drop in FIP (2.73/3.80) and SIERA (3.23/3.76). The lefty also uncharacteristically struggled against his fellow southpaws in comparison with his 2011 success (.271/.342/.342/.684 after a .191/.267/.227/. 494 slash line the year before).

With Randy Choate a possibility to return if he and the club share a mutual interest, and young Paco Rodriguez emerging as another option, Elbert’s health and success in Spring Training will go a long way in determining his future with the club after years and years of injuries finally appeared to be behind him.

Shawn Tolleson

Shawn Tolleson, the club’s top relief prospect heading into 2012, got the call in early June before getting the Blake DeWitt treatment and shuffling between The Show and the minors. Though he moved around, he ended up appearing in 40 games and just under 40 innings.

Known for his swing-and-miss ability and domination of the minors, Tolleson whiffed 9.32/9 IP while posting a 4.08 FIP and 3.78 SIERA. He did struggle with his control at times, walking 4.78 per nine, and he allowed almost a homer per nine.

Five outings — in which he allowed between two and four runs in each — skewed the 24-year-old righty’s numbers a bit, though not as much as his massive struggles against the 68 lefties he faced, who hit a combined .316/.426/.471/.897 against the Texan. On the other side of the coin, Shawn was death to righties, holding them to a .152/.244/.207/.453 line.

Those lefty struggles not withstanding, the future is exceptionally bright for Clayton Kershaw‘s former teammate. Tolleson will have a prominent role in the pen going forward — whether that role begins at the outset of 2013 or not –  and a young pen featuring Jansen/Tolleson/Rodriguez/Guerra should have fans excited.

Randy Choate

Acquired in the Hanley Ramirez deal, Choate arrived with the reputation of a lefty specialist (.201/.278/.252/.530 career) and continued to dominate his brethren in 2012, limiting them to a .158/.243/.190/.433 slash line.

Though he held lefties down in 2012, Choate was mediocre overall after arriving, posting a 4.89 FIP, 4.16 SIERA, and a negative WAR (-0.1). Most troubling was his propensity for issuing free passes, to the tune of 6.08 per nine in his 36 appearances.

Paco Rodriguez

Just 21 and fresh out of college in the spring of 2012, Paco Rodriguez found himself in 11 games down the stretch and whiffed a very impressive 8.1 per nine over those 6.2 innings. He posted a 3.09 FIP and 4.17 SIERA — as well as a .143/.200/.133/.333 slash line against lefties — in his very small sample size of a career, and holds the distinction of being the first 2012 draftee to debut in The Show.

Rodriguez enters 2013 with just north of 25 professional innings under his belt, and could very likely open 2013 on the major-league roster. Paco’s immediate future hinges on Elbert’s health, the signing of some other free agent lefty specialist, and his 2013 Spring Training performance.

While he has stuff to improve upon (like his control), if he can solidify a spot in the pen he would provide the Dodgers with another lefty and a cheap bullpen option with a ton of upside.

Jamey Wright

Jamey Wright, who made the team out of Spring Training after signing a minor-league deal, surprised most with a solid campaign, surpassing expectations in his 66 appearances and 67.2 innings pitched.

Wright fanned 7.18 per nine while posting a 3.39 FIP and 3.15 SIERA. His splits were quite wacky all the way around, as he allowed southpaws to get on-base more, but righties knocked him around in terms of extra-base hits (.252/.365/.230/.595 versus LH & .283/.337/.329/.666 versus RH).

As alluded to above, Wright did struggle with his control, as he allowed around 4.0 BB/9. He did a great job, however, of keeping the ball in the park — 0.27 HR/9 — which saved him from those walks becoming more damaging. Hitters actually benefited from a bit of luck against him with a .324 BABIP, but Wright’s strong propensity for inducing ground balls (67.3%) and infield popups (12.0% IFFB) allowed him to escape his control problems relatively unscathed.

Having lived off minor-league deals, which he turned into major-league roster spots, for most of the past decade, Wright will head into 2012 — his age-38 season — with a strong likelihood of obtaining a major-league contract. Earning just under $1.5 million last year, Wright will probably receive a small raise, and the Dodgers could do a lot worse.

Odds & Ends

Matt Guerrier spent most of 2012 on the shelf with right elbow inflammation, but managed to return late in the season and appeared in 16 games totaling 14 innings. It did not go well. He pitched to a 6.31 FIP and 4.86 SIERA while walking seven, hitting a batter, and allowing a total of 16 baserunners, six earned runs, and 56 total bases against.

He has a year remaining — at $3.75 million — on the ridiculous three-year deal that Ned Colletti signed him to in late-2010. Whether he has a place in the bullpen though, considering the superior arms around him, is another story entirely.

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Josh Lindblom, prior to being dealt to Philadelphia in the Shane Victorino trade, struggled despite some solid peripherals following a breakout 2011. Though he struck out 8.12/9 IP while walking 3.40/9 IP, Lindblom put up a 5.07 FIP, though his SIERA was a fine 3.66.

What really killed him was the long-ball, as following a 2011 in which he didn’t allow a single homer in almost 30 innings, Josh was touched up for nine dingers before being traded.

—–

I honestly forgot Mike MacDougal was a Dodger in 2012, but he began the year on a ludicrous guaranteed one-year major-league deal. He quickly flamed out, lasting seven games and 5.2 innings too long. In that short time, he allowed 15 baserunners, five earned runs, and 32 total bases.

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Greg Zakwin is the founder of the site Plaschke Thy Sweater Is Argyle. Follow him on Twitter @ArgyledPlaschke.

Much to the relief of Dodgers fans everywhere, it was Mike MacDougal who was designed for assignment to make room for the returning Ronald Belisario.

ROSTER MOVE: The @Dodgers today designated RHP Mike MacDougal for assignment while MLB reinstated Ronald Belisario from the Restricted List.

— Los Angeles Dodgers (@Dodgers) May 3, 2012

It’s a relief because, as I discussed before, the bullpen was about to get crowded and moves were going to have to be made. The Dodgers could have gone the easy route, by demoting Josh Lindblom, but instead choose to keep their best pitchers around. Maybe a no-brainer in theory, but given the Dodgers history in practice, I was pleasantly surprised.

With that said, even Belisario’s future is in doubt when Matt Guerrier is ready to return. When Belisario last pitched in the MLB in 2010, he posted a 5.04 ERA, and he had a 7.71 ERA in the 4.1 innings he pitched in the minors this year. Granted, how well he’s throwing is more important than his performance at this juncture, but it’s not a stretch to say he could be the guy who goes for Guerrier in a couple of weeks.

Still though, even if that gets sorted, there’s the issue of whether Shawn Tolleson could help the club right now. Between three levels in 2011, he put up a 1.17 ERA with 105 strikeouts and 18 walks in 69 innings. In 2012, he has a 0.90 ERA at AA with 18 strikeouts and 3 walks. By all accounts, the scouting reports seem to hold up, and while he might not have closer stuff, he has 7th/8th inning guy written all over him, much like Lindblom did, which is more than I can say at this point for Jamey Wright and Todd Coffey.

Despite fan perception, the bullpen isn’t actually a problem area, as it’s been adequately middle of the road thus far. However, it can get better if the Dodgers want it to, and since they’ve shown a change in their process through keeping Lindblom around in favor of an ineffective veteran, I would hope they don’t show hesitation when it comes to Tolleson as well.

With yet another curiously timed injury to a bullpen arm, this time Matt Guerrier, the Dodgers have managed to avoid making a bullpen decision for at least 15 more days.

Dodgers reliever Matt Guerrier, signed in part to be the bullpen workhorse, was placed on the 15-day disabled list Tuesday because of right elbow flexor tendinitis.

Guerrier had an MRI, which revealed no issues with the ligament that leads to Tommy John surgery. He received a platelet-rich plasma injection, will rest for several days, then begin tossing.

The Dodgers called up left-hander Michael Antonini from Triple-A Albuquerque to replace Guerrier in the bullpen.

Michael Antonini was called up from AAA to replace Guerrier for a spell until Todd Coffey returns.

While this game can continue on for a bit, the Dodgers are going to have to cut somebody loose eventually. Especially with Ronald Belisario on the way back.

Troubled Dodgers reliever Ronald Belisario will start a Minor League rehab assignment next week and is eligible to return from a 25-game suspension for violating Major League Baseball’s drug policy on May 4.

Belisario, however, is out of options and the Dodgers must decide if he’s ready to help the club on that date. If not, they cannot send him to the Minor Leagues unless he clears waivers, but he could be taken by another club.

With both Belisario and Guerrier due to return, that leaves the team with Javy Guerra, Kenley Jansen, Guerrier, Scott Elbert, Belisario, Coffey, Mike MacDougal, Jamey Wright, and Josh Lindblom.

Out of that group, two guys have to go, because the Dodgers have a weak bench as it is, and carrying 13 pitchers is just asinine (if they do decide on that, I’ll be sure to have something to say about it).

One has to figure that Guerra, Jansen, Guerrier (big contract), Elbert (only lefty), and Belisario (otherwise why go through the headache?) are going to stick around. So that leaves Coffey, MacDougal, Wright, and Lindblom to battle it out for two spots. Unless Lindblom is struggling by then, he should be kept, which sets up tough decisions on two veteran relievers that were guaranteed contracts. And that situation doesn’t even account for Shawn Tolleson in AA, Josh Wall in AAA, and Michael Antonini in AAA. Much less the likes of Nate Eovaldi as a potential contributor and Rubby De La Rosa in a few months.

At some point, a significant decision is going to have to be made, so the Dodgers are only delaying the inevitable.

Whatever the case may be, I just hope the decision is made based on what’s best for the team and not because the GM decided that the best course of action was to go 12 to 14 deep in the bullpen and neglect depth (or starters) at three or four positions.

In about seven hours time, the Dodgers will open the season in San Diego against the Padres, finally giving us all what we’ve been craving for months: baseball that counts.

—–

The team made a trio of expected moves to finalize the roster before the season opens.

Ted Lilly was placed on the 15-day disabled list, retroactive to March 26.

Ivan DeJesus Jr. was placed on the 15-day disabled list, retroactive to March 26. He strained his left oblique while swinging a bat during a game on March 17 and had to leave the game mid at-bat.

Ronald Belisario, who begins serving his 25-game suspension for violating the MLB Joint Drug Agreement on Thursday, was placed on the restricted list, which opens up a spot on the 40-man roster.

The only thing I wonder is whether they fill the 40-man roster spot with somebody or just leave it open for when Ronald Belisario returns.

—–

By the way, the team will be spending ~114 million dollars on the roster this season, though the team they’ll be running out everyday is worth ~22 million dollars less due to dead weight. Still, ~114 million dollars isn’t exactly the poor house or anything.

Kenley Jansen

Kenley Jansen is the epitome of an under-appreciated fireman in the pen, putting out any fire, no matter the size, intensity, or probability for continuation.

Pitching full-time for just about three years, the 24-year-old fireballer fanned an out-of-this-world 16.10 batters per nine innings last season. Yes, he walked a few too many (4.36), but he has plenty of time to improve his control, especially since he’s still learning  to be a pitcher.

A 1.74 FIP, 2.06 tERA, 1.59 SIERA, and 1.04 WHIP are just nails, and Kenley handled both righties and lefties with ease (.156/.264/.200/.464 and .163/.269/.194/.463, respectively). His year was even more impressive when you consider two things: he had three atrocious outings that skewed already amazing numbers, and he battled injury and a heart murmur (which reoccurred this Spring but doesn’t appear to be serious).

—–

Kenley should always be used in the most pressing situation, not in your conventional ninth inning, three-run-lead save situation. Bring him in to face the heart of the opponent’s lineup with the game close regardless of whether it’s the seventh or eighth or ninth. That’s what firemen do: they put out the most dangerous fires.

Oh, and just for kicks, let’s quickly look at his July and September from last year:

July – 10 IP, 6 Baserunners, 17 K/4 BB, 0 HR

September – 13.2 IP, 11 Baserunners, 32 K/3 BB, 0 HR

Just sick.

Javy Guerra

Javy Guerra entered 2011 as just another arm in the Dodgers pool of pitchers. He closed out the campaign as the closer, and with many fans perceiving him to be a better pitcher than he actually is. Guerra is good, but not great, and he’s the closer by virtue of everybody else before him in 2011 being hurt and/or terrible.

Guerra’s minor league career was solid, with a lot of strikeouts and a lot of walks. He debuted in May, and proceeded to put up a two-month period featuring a shiny ERA and weak peripherals (2.35 in 15.1 innings, with 9 K, 5 BB, and 22 baserunners allowed). Oddly enough, he posted a .327 BABIP against during this time.

The next three months don’t do much to tell us how dominant Guerra could ever be, as he allowed 36 baserunners in 31.1 innings. He walked 13, allowed two homers, and fanned 29 in this time frame. Again, not atrocious numbers, but nothing to get overly excited about, especially considering his BABIP in this period was .232 against.

—–

Guerra, at just 26 years old, is definitely a guy I’d like to have in the pen. He has upside, is cheap, and has shown the ability in the minors, and for stretches of time in the bigs, to miss bats. In fact, I want a guy like him to be the closer while the better pitcher – Jansen – is placed in higher leverage situations and asked to get the opponent’s better offensive players out

I just don’t want Guerra, based off of the outdated Saves statistic, to get more credit than Kenley. I’m a simple man with simple desires.

Scott Elbert

Heading into 2011 with the reputation as an injury-prone, command lacking, questionable makeup having potential bust, Scott Elbert ended the year by cementing himself as a fixture in the Dodgers remade pen. Taking over the left-handed reliever role from the also injury-riddled Hong Chih Kuo, Elbert fanned 9.18 per nine innings while issuing 3.78 BB/9 IP, an improvement on his small sample size MLB career and lengthier minor league tenure.

Elbert has always had great stuff and posted big strikeout numbers in the minors, but could never get a footing in The Show. He was only given 26.1 innings in his previous three stints with the big league club to impress in, and certainly didn’t, but the potential was always there if he could harness his stuff and stay healthy.

—–

With that great promise coming to fruition in ’11, and room to still grow and improve, Scott will be expected to shut down lefties, who only hit a putrid .191/.267/.227/.494 against him last year. Elbert can certainly hold his own against righties (.255/.344/.328/.672 in 2011), but like most southpaws, he’s much, much better against his hitting brethren. Elbert will probably be the only lefty in the pen to start 2012, and with upside and talent, his future in Los Angeles is finally clear.

Ned Colletti’s Motley Crew Of Veteran Goodness

Mike MacDougal is back on a guaranteed (!) one-year deal following a shiny ERA, terrible everything else season. In 57 innings that had other teams frothing at the mouth, Mike whiffed just 6.47 per nine while issuing 4.58 free passes each nine he took the mound.

But hey, he had a 2.02 ERA and was an experienced vet. That totally makes up for the 4.33 tERA, inability to miss bats, and the taking up of a roster spot that would be better served on Josh Lindblom.

—–

Matt Guerrier … exists. 6.78 K/9, 3.39 BB/9, 3.43 FIP, and all.

—–

Todd Coffey received a guaranteed one-year deal, and coming off of a 3.41 FIP season, he could actually be useful if used against righties only. Coffey was death to right-handers in 2011, allowing just a .193/.250/.255/.505 slash line against while whiffing three times as many as he walked. Of course, conversely, lefties murdered him, mashing to the tune of a .338/.404/.416/.820 line, and they drew nine walks while only going down swinging 11 times.

So yeah. Use him against righties, and never let him try to sprint his guts out to face Carlos Gonzalez or Lance Berkman or even Juan Pierre‘s limp bat, for that matter.

All of that said, would I have signed Coffey? No. But I’m not Ned Colletti.

—–

Ronald Belisario is back! After he serves a suspension for a drug-related incident, that is. He’ll almost never be able to replicate his BABIP-fueled 2009 where he fanned over 8.0/9 IP, but hey, another bullpen arm could never hurt.

Granted, he’s out of options, so when he does return, someone has to go, and anyone not named MacDougal should not be replaced by Belisario. Heck, not even Coffey, who’s been pretty decent against righties for a long time.

But seriously. Get rid of MacDougal.

—–

Blake Hawksworth, once he returns from injury, must be on the 25-man roster.

Why? Because his sister is Erin Hawksworth.

Enough said.

The Dodgers are off on Thursday, but they did make one roster move. Ronald Belisario, who was on the restricted list all of last season, was reinstated, and to make room on the 40-man roster the Dodgers designated Ramon Troncoso for assignment.

Belisario still must serve a 25-game suspension for violating MLB’s drug policy, presumably for testing positive for cocaine, something the reliever said last month that he only tried once. Belisario needed to be on the 40-man roster to serve that suspension.

The team hopes he clears waivers, but don’t think he will.

The Dodgers are hoping reliever Ramon Troncoso gets through waivers so they can keep him in the organization, but manager Don Mattingly said he expects the right-hander to be claimed.

Yeah, can’t imagine some team with horrible relief depth wouldn’t take a chance.

Anyway, with Troncoso gone, the candidates for the final spot in the bullpen have been revealed.

Troncoso was competing for the final long-relief spot in the bullpen. That competition now is among Jamey Wright, Josh Lindblom, John Grabow, Angel Guzman, Wil Ledezma, Fernando Nieve and Scott Rice.

According to general manager Ned Colletti, Wright and Grabow have opt-out clauses they can trigger on Sunday, which gives the Dodgers until March 30 to guarantee their Major League salaries or grant their releases.

I don’t see how it’s not Josh Lindblom over that cavalcade of crap. They don’t absolutely need a lefty reliever that bad, do they? We should hope not.

—–

Perhaps of greater concern is Jerry Hairston‘s arm, as it even piqued Don Mattingly‘s worry.

Dodgers manager Don Mattingly said he is “more concerned” with infielder Jerry Hairston’s throwing after the veteran utility man picked up his fifth throwing error in the last five games Friday.

Playing third base, Hairston fielded a chopper but spiked the throw to the plate with the bases loaded in the 17-4 split-squad win over the White Sox, pulling catcher A.J. Ellis off home and costing Minor League pitcher Ethan Martin an unearned run.

The 35-year-old Hairston reportedly had some arm or shoulder discomfort earlier in Spring Training but missed no time. Mattingly would not speculate on whether Hairston is trying to play through an injury, but he said the club would “look further into” Hairston’s status.

That sound you hear is Justin Sellers doing cartwheels and praising Jesus.

Clayton Kershaw is injured! Everybody panic!

Dodgers Cy Young winner Clayton Kershaw missed his first bullpen session of Spring Training on Wednesday as a precautionary measure due to mild back tightness.

Oh, it’s just back tightness.

Speaking of injuries, Ken Gurnick of MLB.com reports that Rubby De La Rosa is progressing quickly.

Rubby De La Rosa is a pitcher, not a doctor, but he’s declared his Tommy John elbow reconstruction a success and predicts a return this season “after the All-Star break.”

“It’s unbelievable, perfect,” said De La Rosa, whose meteoric rise to the Major Leagues last year was derailed by one bad pitch that tore his ulnar collateral ligament. “I’m going to be a lot better. No doubt I’ll be 100 percent.”

De La Rosa, six months into recovery, said he hasn’t had any setbacks and is throwing 90 feet on flat ground with a target of April to be throwing off a mound. He said he feels healthy enough to air it out, but the training staff has him reined in to throw easy.

“I have to wait,” he said. “I want to be healthy. Sometimes I want to throw hard.”

Can’t wait to see how he performs upon returning. I’m guessing it’ll be out of the pen initially.

As Ronald Belisario‘s world turns, Dylan Hernandez of the Los Angeles Times has an update that involves cocaine.

Back with the Dodgers after a yearlong absence, reliever Ronald Belisario said Wednesday that he was prevented from entering the United States last year because he tested positive for cocaine.

The positive drug test also resulted in a 25-game suspension issued by Major League Baseball that Belisario will serve at the start of the upcoming season.

Standing in front of his locker before the pitchers and catchers’ first workout of the spring, Belisario said he didn’t have a cocaine problem and that he had ingested the drug only once.

“I don’t have a problem with any drugs,” he said.

The failed drug test was the latest incident in a series of personal setbacks that have derailed the 29-year-old right-hander’s once-promising career. In 2010, his last season with the Dodgers, Belisario left the team for more than a month to receive treatment in a substance-abuse program.

Belisario didn’t offer specifics about the treatment he received other than saying it wasn’t for cocaine abuse.

“That’s in the past,” he said. “I don’t want to talk about it.”

Only did cocaine once and was in the substance abuse program for a different issue that he doesn’t want to talk about. Wonderful, sounds legit. Maybe he should have checked himself into a top private drug rehab in Los Angeles, CA instead.

—–

Could Andre Ethier platoon with Jerry Sands against lefties? Don Mattingly leads us to believe in the possibility.

“Jerry was really good against lefties last year, but we’ve got to be able to get him x number of at-bats. I hate the thought of saying that we’ll platoon guys, but the numbers say (James) Loney and (Andre) Ethier weren’t good against lefties. We’ll mix and match.”

So who tells Ethier about this and how big of a fit does he throw?

Naturally though, it’s the correct move.

—–

Kevin Goldstein of Baseball Prospectus reported on Twitter that the Dodgers signed Brent Leach, who was once a prospect in the Dodgers system before he left to Japan.

Lefties galore.

Spring Training is here, which means all other sports matter less, and wow, there’s way too much news out of the Los Angeles Dodgers camp already.

=====

Ken Gurnick of MLB.com reports that Clayton Kershaw will start on Opening Day, which is basically the biggest Captain Obvious moment of the season.

Then Matt Kemp told the media that he doesn’t want the 2011 NL MVP Award if Ryan Braun is suspended.

“I would want to win by them voting me,” Kemp said. “I wouldn’t want them to just, ‘Oh, this person did that so how about we just give the award to this person?’ I don’t think it should work that way.

“If it is that way, then it should be a vacant award for 2011, no one should win the MVP award in the National League.”

Kemp said he hopes Braun is vindicated.

“I know Braun,” he said. “We’ve always been cool. We’ve been friends. He’s been one of my favorite players in the big leagues. I hope it’s not true.”

Kemp has handled this situation extremely well up to this point and that just cements it.

It wasn’t all rainbows and kittens though, as Dylan Hernandez of the Los Angeles Times reported that Blake Hawksworth won’t be ready to start the season because a second operation was necessary to clean up his elbow.

—–

As far as roles and playing time go, Eric Stephen of True Blue LA has a ton of news.

“Javy, to me, didn’t do anything last year to say he shouldn’t be that guy,” manager Don Mattingly said on Tuesday. “More than anything, Kenley was saying ‘Hey I can do that too’ by the way he pitched. It’s a good problem for us to have.”

“Javy has been here one year,” said Mattingly. “It’s a competition, you still have to perform. There have been a lot of guys in their first year were really good and struggled the next year. Kenley was a perfect example, as he wasn’t himself [to start 2011] that he was the year before. It took him a half a season with little problems here and there, and he was in the minors for a little bit, but next thing you know he emerged back to what we had seen the year before.”

Javy Guerra will be the closer over Kenley Jansen to start the season, and while Jansen is the better pitcher, I don’t have a problem with this, as it gives the team better flexibility in regards to Jansen’s usage.

“It’s not like he’s a bad guy, or you don’t like him. But to this point he’s been tough to count on,” Mattingly said of relief pitcher Ronald Belisario, who is here in camp, but was not available for reporters as he left for a dental appointment. “It’s a step in the right direction that he’s here.”

The much maligned Ronald Belisario was actually there in person in real life at Spring Training and it’s important because if he looks anything like his old self, Hawksworth’s injury might have just opened up a spot.

—–

In the world of position players, both starting and backup roles are at stake.

Jerry Sands doesn’t necessarily need to win an everyday spot in the lineup to make the opening day roster, but Mattingly said he needs to have a certain number of plate appearances to justify a spot on the big league roster, as the club wants Sands to play nearly every day. While Mattingly shied away from committing to a plan of sitting Andre Ethier and Loney against southpaws, the manager said that figuring out a way to get Sands enough at-bats will be one of his projects in camp.

I have a way to get Jerry Sands at bats: don’t play Juan Rivera.

The backup shortstop will be Jerry Hairston Jr., as Mattingly wants to keep Juan Uribe at third base. Should Dee Gordon go down for any extended period of time, the club would turn to Justin Sellers.

Jerry Hairston Jr. is a fine utility infielder, but that paragraph makes me want to barf. Juan Uribe at third all the time and Justin Sellers is the backup in case Dee Gordon doesn’t take off like they expect.

Could be bad.

Finally, it was announced that Gordon will hit first, while Kemp hits third.

I’ll explore this later, but this could be a bad idea. Gordon got better later in the season, but it was a tiny sample size, and as a whole, he has always struggled at taking a walk. Furthermore, contrary to popular belief, putting your best hitter in the three hole is not optimal either.

Seriously?

Seriously, according to Tony Jackson of ESPN.

Reports on Ronald Belisario are basically like Sasquatch rumors at this point, with a bundle of people saying “No really, I saw it” and others responding with “I want to see evidence”.

Assuming that he actually does show up at Spring Training and that he manages to stay out of trouble between now and then, reliever Ronald Belisario will be hit with a 25 game suspension to start 2012.

Reliever Ronald Belisario has received a visa valid for the next five years and is expected to be in Arizona for the start of spring training, but he won’t be on the Dodgers’ opening-day roster.

Belisario must serve a 25-game suspension for violating baseball’s drug policy, according to a person familiar with the situation who spoke under the condition of anonymity.

Of course.

[UPDATED, 7:14 a.m. Wednesday: The suspension falls under the "drug of abuse" standard rather than a "stimulant" standard, according to a person familiar with the matter.]

MSTI argues that it gives the Dodgers time to evaluate what they have, but I can’t see myself twisting this into a positive when a guy who has always been plagued with off-the-field issues starts the season with a suspension related to an off-the-field issue.

Much maligned reliever Ronald Belisario has been granted a visa and will be with the Dodgers for Spring Training reports Dylan Hernandez of the Los Angeles Times.

Reliever Ronald Belisario, who missed last season because he was unable to gain entry into the United States, has been granted a visa and is expected to be in camp for the start of spring training, according to his agent.

“He should be ready to go,” said Rick Oliver, who represents Belisario.

People are understandably skeptical about him being with the Dodgers until he’s actually at Spring Training, but there seems to be little doubt about his potential contribution to the team.

But why?

He was horrid in 2010, posting a 5.04 ERA and 4.31 FIP, clocking in below replacement level. One could argue that the year was derailed by his off-the-field problems, and I think it’s a fair argument, but there’s nothing in his past that would indicate he’ll stay out of trouble in the future. Plus, there are reasonable questions about his conditioning, health, refinement…and just about everything else.

Furthermore, even during the season that made him relevant to Dodgers fans (2009), he was never that ~2.00 ERA shutdown reliever he showed. Reality is that he was much more of a ~3.50 ERA type that was a solid addition to the bullpen and relied on a touch of luck to carry him to an elite reputation.

Belisario being around doesn’t hurt the Dodgers, but I’m hardly excited about the possibility of his return. In fact, the main reason I’m happy about this news is that it gives me hope that Ned Colletti won’t give a three year deal to reliever over 30.

MLB.com: Outfielder Jamie Hoffmann was claimed by the Rockies off waivers, which makes it unlikely the perennial sixth outfielder in the system will be back.

MLB.com: Remember Ronald Belisario? He wants back in.

Ronald Belisario, not seen by the Dodgers since 2010, is again working on obtaining a work visa that would allow him to return to the United States and compete for a Dodgers bullpen role next season.

General manager Ned Colletti wouldn’t characterize the odds of Belisario actually showing up at Camelback Ranch-Glendale in February, but he confirmed that the right-hander has been working with government officials to allow his return.

Everybody has wishes, I suppose.

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MLB.com: Logan White has been interviewed for the Astros vacant GM position.

The Astros have interviewed Dodgers assistant general manager Logan White for their vacant general manager position, a Major League Baseball source told MLB.com.

Just as Ned Colletti is about to be shown the door.

Los Angeles Times: Pat Gillick would have interest in being the president of baseball operations for the new owners.

Pat Gillick, one of the most successful executives in baseball history, said he would consider joining the Dodgers if a new owner wished to consider him.

Gillick said he has been approached by prospective bidders for the Dodgers but said he would not align with any potential ownership group. Once a new owner is selected — and if that new owner is interested — Gillick said he would consider a position as president of baseball operations.

It’s an upgrade, but his history is a bit spotty.

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MLB.com: Dodgers are in negotiations for minor league contracts with five players.

The Dodgers are in discussions with four non-roster players on Minor League contracts with invitations to Major League Spring Training — three of them pitchers — and are close to a deal with another.

The four are: Jose Ascanio, a right-handed reliever; Jeff Baisley, a corner infielder; Wil Ledezma, a left-handed reliever; and Shane Lindsay, a right-handed reliever.

A tentative agreement has been reached with Alberto Castillo, a 35-year-old left-hander from Cuba who had a 2.31 ERA in 17 games in 2011 for the D-backs, his eighth organization. He missed August with shoulder tendinitis.

Wil Ledezma had been rumored to be signing for a while now, but the rest are new and rather uninspiring, which is to be expected.

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True Blue LA: Eric Stephen wrote a great article about how risk aversion can end up being risky as well.

In order to get these five marginal upgrades in 2012, the Dodgers will pay something like $26.5 million in 2013 for a group of older players ($23 million if Rivera’s option is not exercised). We could be paying $13 million in 2013 for three hitters who hit a combined .257/.314/.369 in 2011. Keep in mind, this group includes two players who were so bad in 2011 they were designated for assignment and dumped by their original teams, and a pair of homer-prone pitchers who made opposing hitters look like All-Stars outside of their friendly home parks.

I get not wanting to dive into the deep waters of the free agent market. Long-term commitments can be scary, and carry with them a lot of risk. But sometimes too much risk aversion can leave you saddled with the equivalent of a superstar price tag without anything close to superstar production.

Perhaps after all the dust settles, I’ll look at how everything actually shook out, but what this replacement level player spree is costing the Dodgers in 2013 was an eye opener for me.