Clayton Kershaw

After Clayton Kershaw‘s 2011 performance, for which he won the Cy Young Award, I wasn’t sure I could be more impressed with him going forward. That’s not to say I was certain he had peaked, but it would no longer come as a surprise to me or anyone else. What impressed me so much about his 2012 season though, was the fact that he had another fantastic season while pitching through physical adversity.

Kershaw had to deal with plantar fasciitis throughout most, if not all of, the campaign, on top of a late-season hip injury that could have led to surgery, and an early-season illness that forced him to last just three innings in his 2012 debut.

After 2011 bests in FIP (2.28), SIERA (2.81), xFIP (2.84), BB/9 IP (2.08), and WAR (7.2), Clayton followed with excellent marks across that spectrum yet again, with a 2.53 FIP, 3.24 SIERA, 3.25 xFIP, 2.49 free passes per nine, and a 6.3 WAR. His strikeouts remained above one per inning (9.57/9 IP in 2011, 9.05 in 2012), and he backed up his 0.98 WHIP last season with a 1.02 mark this year.

Kid K has made his living missing bats and inducing weak contact, and he continued that trend in 2012, inducing a mess of infield popups (12.2 IFFB%) and increasing the amount of ground balls he generates for a fourth consecutive season (39.4%/40.1%/43.2%/46.9%).

In line for his second consecutive Cy, and fresh off of winning the Roberto Clemente Award, Clayton heads into 2013 on the last year of the two-year deal he signed to avoid arbitration. Slated to make just $11 million in ’13, the underpaid Clayton should have already received a long-term extension. Locking up the young stud southpaw should be the primary objective of Ned Colletti and his staff going forward.

Chad Billingsley

Entering 2012, Chad Billingsley was coming off of a pair of interesting and contrasting seasons: 2010 was his best season ever, while 2011 saw him take a step back. Always the lightning rod for Dodgers fans, especially with Jonathan Broxton away in Kansas City, Bills was at somewhat of a crossroads, as a good campaign would go a long way with the organization, while a sub-par one could have easily landed him elsewhere.

Always a Billingsley fan myself, I was very optimistic about his 2012 prospects, with one caveat:

Bills struggles resulted in a WAR cut in half from the previous year (2.1, down from 4.5) and questions about his mechanics and health. Still shy of his 28th birthday, Billingsley has every chance to rebound, and much like his poor second half of 2009 led to his best professional season, said rebound in 2012 would not be the least surprising to me. In fact, I’ll call it right now, as I fully expect Chad to be productive as Kershaw’s running mate next season, provided he is in fact healthy.

And unfortunately, that caveat became reality, as Chad suffered from an elbow injury that sent him to the DL twice, felled him permanently from August 24th on, and may require Tommy John surgery if plasma injections and rest don’t suffice as a rehab method.

Prior to being shut down, Chad started 25 games, and in just shy of 150 innings, had been excellent. A FIP of 3.34, SIERA of 3.83, and HR/9 of just 0.66 worked to produce a 2.5 WAR. On pace for another 3.5 WAR season, what was most impressive about the 2012 version of Billingsley was the fact that he had cut down significantly on his walks, trimming a 4.02 BB/9 mark down to 2.71.

While Bills isn’t the pitcher Kershaw is, we saw what cutting down on free passes did for Clayton, and it was working well for Chad too before his elbow got in the way of what was shaping up to be one of his best seasons. The Dodgers were able to lock him up prior to the 2011 season for a team-friendly three-year contract with a club option for 2015, and Chad will make $11 million this upcoming year whether or not he can throw a pitch.

A 2013 prediction for Chad really can’t be accurately made, as we have little idea whether the treatments he’s presently undergoing will ultimately allow him to pitch, though the most recent news is very promising. Tommy John surgery would wipe out his entire season, but if the treatments work and he’s able to suit up for the Dodgers next year, there’s ample reason to expect another solid year.

Chris Capuano

Chris Capuano was signed to a back-loaded two-year, $10 million deal with a 2014 mutual option, and while I wasn’t thrilled with the back-loaded nature of the deal, I was alright with him being brought on as a #4 starter. Granted, with the Dodgers #3 being Ted Lilly, they really had no #3 and a plethora of #4/#5 options, but with Cap there was at least some upside.

Coming off a bounce back 2011 season following injury issues, Capuano had a solid #3/#4 type season, whiffing 7.35/9 IP while issuing 2.45 BB/9. Like the two men to follow in this review, Chris struggled in limiting home runs, allowing over one per contest. Those walk and homer numbers were improvements over his 2011 season with the Mets, but he also struck out almost a batter less per nine than he did in his lone season in New York.

A look at his FIP, SIERA, and WAR don’t offer a clear picture beyond the aforementioned #3/#4 starter status, as he improved his FIP from 2011 (4.04/3.95), as well as his WAR (1.4/2.3), but saw a decently sharp increase in his SIERA (3.63/3.90). Cap allows a lot of hard contact (~20% LD career) and fly balls (~40% career), so pitching in a park like Dodger Stadium helps to mitigate the struggles associated with that.

Perhaps most interesting is Chris’ career pre- and post-ASG splits. In 2012, Capuano allowed a .232/.295/.374/.669 line to opponents pre-break, but that ballooned to .281/.317/.454/.770 following the mid-summer classic. Those numbers hold true for his career, as he’s always been more of a first-half pitcher (.257/.320/.414/.734 vs. .273/.331/.473/.804 with BABIP and K/BB marks that have remained steady).

He’ll enter 2013 as the #3 or #4 starter, and if he can up that strikeout rate a bit, he could be solid yet again.

Aaron Harang

Signed to a back-loaded two-year, $12 million deal with a mutual option for 2014 — a deal I was against at the time and still am upset with — Aaron Harang was exactly what he has been since Dusty Baker ruined his arm a few years back: an overpaid #4/#5 starter.

In 31 starts and just under 180 innings, Harang struck out a paltry 6.56 per nine while issuing an poor 4.26 free passes per nine. His shiny ERA may lead many to see his season as a success, but dig just a bit deeper and you find a 4.14 FIP, 4.87 SIERA, and just a 1.7 WAR.

Harang hasn’t exceeded 2.3 WAR since 2007, has not struck out more than seven per nine since 2009, and has seen his walk rate trend up in the last four seasons. That’s … uh … not good, and barring a trade, Harang will return and try to hold off age for another 30 or so starts.

Ted Lilly

Lilly only made eight starts in 2012, totaling under 50 innings, as the injury bug bit him hard in the form of a left shoulder ailment that would end up requiring arthroscopic surgery.

Prior to his injury, in an obviously small sample size, the veteran lefty posted a 3.92 FIP and 4.81 SIERA while seeing a sharp drop in his strikeout numbers from 2011 and his career rate (5.73 in ’12, 7.38 in ’11, 7.64 career).

Entering the final year of a back-loaded three-year-deal that will pay him $12 million in 2013, Lilly no longer has no-trade clause protection, but considering that he is coming off of an injury to his pitching shoulder and will be 37 for the duration of next season, there’s not much value to be had on the trade market anyway.

Lilly will reportedly be available for Spring Training barring any setback, and with a rotation already set, there’s a chance Lilly winds up in the pen to complement Scott Elbert and/or Paco Rodriguez, occupying a long-relief role and spot-starting when necessary.

Josh Beckett

Acquired in the massive deal with Boston, Josh Beckett arrived on the heels of an overblown but still bad 21 starts with the Red Sox in 2012. I say overblown because he was pitching like a #3 starter in 2012, but with all of the focus on his personality and the September collapse of 2011, you’d have thought he was pitching his way out of baseball entirely.

His results were terrible in Boston (5.23 ERA), but Beckett had posted a 4.26 FIP and 4.28 SIERA before the deal, while walking 2.7 per 9. Most concerning were his drop in strikeouts to roughly 6.5 per 9 after five straight seasons of over 8.0 per 9.

Upon his arrival, Beckett was solid and showed improvement, striking out almost 8.0 per 9 with a 3.82 FIP and 3.81 SIERA. While some might attribute that to the new manager and new clubhouse environment, it’s far more likely due to the weaker league and weaker division, offensively-speaking.

Beckett is under contract for another two seasons, each at $15.75 million, and slots in as the #2 or #3 starter heading into 2013. Going into his age-33 season, Beckett is no sure thing to transform back into the front of the rotation starter he once was, though that’s what the Dodgers will need out of him if they don’t go out and get an arm in the off-season.

Joe Blanton

Acquired from the Phillies for a PTNBL that eventually became pitcher Ryan O’Sullivan, Joe Blanton turned in a solid ten starts for the Blue Crew, posting a 3.74 FIP and 3.61 SIERA while whiffing 8.0 per 9 and walking 2.5 per 9.

Blanton’s strikeouts were a pleasant surprise, as his career mark sits just above 6.0 per 9, though he did struggle with the home run, as usual, allowing over one per game as a Dodger. Blanton’s overall season numbers are fifth-starter material, as he posted a 1.7 WAR, though his peripherals were good enough to be a #4.

After making $8.5 million each of the last two seasons, Blanton heads to free agency, and entering his age-32 season, he’ll certainly be looking for at least a two-year commitment from a team. The Dodgers will be after an arm or two, and there are worse options than him, but with the Dodgers flush in cash I doubt he’ll be a target.

Odds & Ends

Nate Eovaldi made 10 starts for the Dodgers prior to being dealt to Florida for Hanley Ramirez. In those ten starts, the 22-year-old righty struck out just 5.4/9 IP while walking 3.2/9 IP. He put up an FIP of 4.11 and a SIERA of 4.67.

While some are high on his stuff and potential as a #3 starter, I always saw him as a reliever due to his low strikeout numbers, and for the chance that Hanley hits again, it was a great trade in my book.

—–

Stephen Fife, acquired in the Trayvon Robinson deal that made no sense at the time, made just five spot-starts for the Dodgers in 2012. Everything I saw from the 26-year-old profiles as a bullpen arm who can spot-start here and there.

With an FIP of 4.14 and a SIERA of 4.67, I suppose he could be a fifth starter, but again, he seems to profile as a fungible relief arm with his lack of swing and miss stuff and the decrease in strikeouts as he’s advanced levels to face more competent hitting.

=====

Greg Zakwin is the founder of the site Plaschke Thy Sweater Is Argyle. Follow him on Twitter @ArgyledPlaschke.

As is expected as the season winds down, there are few, if any, roster moves being made. Teams have already called up players following roster expansion, so most everybody is done for the year in this regard. However, the Dodgers did make one move this past week:

The club completed the Shane Victorino trade, sending Stefan Jarrin – the grandson of broadcaster Jaime Jarrin – to the Phillies as the PTBNL in that deal.

—–

On a lesser note, the team’s minor league affiliates reinstated a slew of players from the DL.

It was reported yesterday that the Player To Be Named Later in the Joe Blanton deal was Ryan O’Sullivan.

Ryan O’Sullivan, sent to #Phillies to complete Blanton deal, ranked #23 on BA list of #Dodgers prospects.

— Bill Shaikin (@BillShaikin) August 16, 2012

The 21-year-old right-handed reliever has pitched at both A-ball levels in 2012 after spending 2011 at Rookie-ball. He had a successful stint with the Loons, posting a 2.92 ERA/3.51 FIP/4.52 SIERA, thus earning a promotion to the Quakes. O’Sullivan has struggled in the new environment a bit, putting up a 3.57 ERA/4.84 FIP/4.59 SIERA. A groundball pitcher, the primary problem with his projection are his strikeout totals, which clocked in at 5.45 K/9 at Great Lakes and 6.11 K/9 at Rancho Cucamonga.

O’Sullivan wasn’t a relief arm I was concerned about losing, and quite frankly, I’m just relieved that it wasn’t Chris Withrow or something more significant.

The Dodgers shored up their rotation today by acquiring Joe Blanton from the Phillies for a player to be named later.

OFFICIAL: @dodgers today acquired starting pitcher Joe Blanton from @phillies for a player to be named later.

— Los Angeles Dodgers (@Dodgers) August 3, 2012

Blanton is owed about $2.9 million for the rest of 2012 and the Dodgers will be picking up the tab for that. Just like with the Shane Victorino trade, the PTBNL isn’t a cause for concern, as they are rarely meaningful prospects in the end.

But how about Blanton?

He should be a clear upgrade over Stephen Fife (4.65 FIP/5.20 xFIP/5.77 SIERA) and provides insurance in case Ted Lilly never quite makes it back from shoulder problems, which by his own account seems likely.

Up until 2010, Blanton had a 5.8 K/9 and 2.5 BB/9, but over the last 174.2 innings from 2011 on, he’s posted a 7.7 K/9 and a 1.4 BB/9. As a result, while his ERA is 4.59 this year, his FIP sits at a solid 3.98, while his xFIP and SIERA are both 3.39. The move from Citizens Bank Park to Dodger Stadium may not only mean he’s a significant improvement as a #5, but may make him the third best option on a staff with a lot of solid but not great pitchers.

Surprised by the peripherals? So is … uh … everybody, but the point is that he’s a solid upgrade that will help the Dodgers and might actually end up making more of a marginal wins difference than Victorino.

As I wrote yesterday, the Dodgers acquired outfielder Shane Victorino from the Phillies in return for reliever Josh Lindblom, AA starter Ethan Martin, and either a player to be named later or cash.

Shane Victorino is returning to the organization that drafted him in 1999. The Dodgers acquired Victorino from the Phillies today for starting pitching prospect Ethan Martin and reliever Josh Lindblom, according to Yahoo’s Tim Brown (Twitter link). The deal has been officially announced by both teams, and the Phillies also received a player to be named later or cash considerations.

Josh Lindblom

From 2011 to 2012, in what amounts to about a full season’s worth of work (75 G/77.1 IP), Lindblom has posted a 2.91 ERA/4.02 FIP/4.19 xFIP/3.53 SIERA. He’s been worth around 0.7 WAR in that time period and figures to be around 0.5 to 1.0 WAR annually, depending on whether you believe his defense independent profile or batted ball profile.

After this season, he has five years of team control left, so taking the middle ground of things, he figures to be worth around 4 WAR during that time.

Ethan Martin

I ranked Martin as the 21st best prospect in the system coming into 2012, based primarily on his upside. In 2011, he seemed destined for a bullpen role, as he could never get it together as a starter, but the lack of ceiling in the Dodgers system led me to rank him anyway.

The Dodgers decided to give him another shot in 2012 as a starter and it has paid dividends. In 118 innings at AA, he has a 3.58 ERA and a 3.48 FIP due to continuing to miss bats (22.9 K%) but dropping his walk rate four percent (12.5%).

He’s not that old for the level at 23 and would have ranked somewhere in the top 10 in the system going into 2013. I probably would have put his upside as a #3 starter or late inning reliever with a high risk grade, an improvement from #3/#4 starter and late inning reliever with a very high risk grade.

Player To Be Named Later Or Cash

PTBNL rarely amount to much so I wouldn’t be concerned about it. Cash obviously doesn’t affect the Dodgers much either. Both figure to be moot unless there’s a shocking twist.

Shane Victorino

2012 marks Victorino’s worst offensive season of his career, posting a .261/.324/.401/.724 line. He’s a good baserunner and an average defender in center (Last Four Years: 0 DRS, -7 FRAA), but a lot of his offensive value comes from the fact that he’s a center fielder, which may not be the case with the Dodgers. Still, there’s no doubt that he marks an upgrade over the previous occupants, who have posted a pathetic line of .238/.294/.329/.623.

Victorino projects at .271/.338/.439/.777 the rest of the way, while the three headed monster of Bobby Abreu (.253/.343/.373/.716), Juan Rivera (.261/.312/.394/.706), and Tony Gwynn Jr. (.252/.306/.341/.647) all clock in well below that.

Comparing Victorino with the three-headed monster that was sharing time in left shows a ~4.5 run upgrade offensively, ~0.5 run upgrade on the bases, and a ~3 run upgrade defensively. That’s assuming the regressed offensive performance and that Victorino adjusts from average/fringe center fielder to above average/good left fielder defensively. So he’s about a 0.8 marginal win upgrade or so.

For the record, PECOTA has him at only a half win upgrade.

—–

While I liked both Lindblom and Martin, they weren’t elite assets, so I’m not going to throw a fit like I was on Twitter when I thought they dealt Allen Webster. However, they were assets that obviously had value, and as a rule of thumb, I don’t like trading valuable assets for rentals except under certain circumstances (history generally shows why), such as an elite team looking to shore up roles.

My cause for concern with trades like these has less to do with Victorino specifically though, as he does indeed represent a significant upgrade in left. Over a full season, he would be about a 2.0 to 2.5 win upgrade over what the Dodgers were trotting out there. However, all they get is two months, and while I assumed he will regress to norms, he may not, and even if he does, his marginal value is minimal because of the time frame involved.

Overall, I understand why people are thrilled with this move, and I hope for the best along with everybody else, but I don’t think there’s much to get excited about either way.

Tim Brown of Yahoo! Sports says the Dodgers have traded Josh Lindblom and Ethan Martin to the Phillies for Shane Victorino.

Phillies have traded Victorino to Dodgers for Lindblom and Ethan martin

— Tim Brown (@TBrownYahoo) July 31, 2012

I’ll have analysis up later, but in the mean time, here’s Shane Victorino’s best contributions to baseball!

According to Ken Rosenthal of Fox Sports, the Dodgers are now “very unlikely” to land Ryan Dempster, but it seems like the team is still in on the chase.

The Dodgers are “very unlikely” to trade for Dempster according to Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports (on Twitter). They prefer not to trade prospects for a rental, making Matt Garza a more logical target.

Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com reports that the Dempster sweepstakes is currently down to the Braves, Nationals, and Cardinals.

So what now?

Well the Dodgers have reportedly moved on to Dempster’s teammate on the Cubs, Matt Garza.

The Dodgers don’t want to surrender prospects for a rental and are “very unlikely” to acquire Ryan Dempster, but Bruce Levine of ESPN Chicago reports that they have shifted their focus to Matt Garza. Los Angeles had a deal on the table to acquire Dempster yesterday but it was not consummated.

Why the shift?

One possibility is that the overwhelming interest in Dempster has changed his price and the Dodgers don’t want to go further than what they have already put on the table. However, part of me wonders if this was influenced by the team’s recent struggles and Cole Hamels appearing to be close to agreeing to an extension. In other words, the Dodgers seem intent on getting a rotation contributor beyond 2012 now, perhaps because their plan was to get Dempster at a cheaper rate than Garza and then sign Hamels in the off-season. However, if that scenario is no longer on the table, it raises questions about both how they would improve the rotation in 2012 and how they would add a quality arm for 2013 and beyond.

—–

Of course, it could just be because Garza is the more valuable asset on the table. Despite their ERA difference (which doesn’t measure pitcher worth, IMO), Dempster isn’t actually a superior pitcher, generally speaking.

Dempster is suppressing his HR rate at close to career best numbers, while Garza’s HR rate is by far his career high.

While FIP is a wonderful tool for determining what actually happened within the pitcher’s control, xFIP and SIERA are better tools for projecting future performance, as they normalize HR rate. So assuming these 100 innings or so don’t represent some type of skill change in the two pitchers, it’s not out of line to say Garza is the better bet going forward.

Garza is a 2.5-3.5 WAR pitcher, plus an extra year of team control in 2013, putting him around 4.5 WAR of value. Dempster is around the same skill level, but without the extra year of control, so he’s worth about 1.0-1.5 WAR. The preference change makes sense in terms of asset value for every team, but in the Dodgers situation it may make more sense than for most. Like any other trade though, it depends on the eventual price on the Dodgers end.

The Dodgers being in on Ryan Dempster has been beaten to death already, but competition is apparently heating up.

The Dodgers and Tigers are among the most serious suitors for Cubs right-hander Ryan Dempster, Morosi reports. Ten teams have reportedly shown interest in Dempster.

That deal that was on the table? Price has probably gone up a bit if the interest from other teams is serious, and maybe it has gone into unrealistic territory at this point.

Either that or this is just bullshit to get the Dodgers and Tigers to give up more.

—–

So … the Dodgers have interest in Shane Victorino.

One executive predicts Shane Victorino will be the first big-name player traded. The Dodgers have some interest in Victorino, and the Rangers, Tigers, Pirates, Marlins and Giants have all scouted him recently.

Why though? He plays center and Matt Kemp is already back. If they move Victorino to left, then he loses a lot of his value. That is especially true in 2012 since he is hitting .251/.316/.389/.705. Granted, his BABIP stands at .265, so some of that is luck-related, but his pop is way down. Even if he regresses to his norms, he projects at .267/.334/.434/.769 the rest of the way.

Not the impact bat the Dodgers need in left. Plus, he’s a douche.

—–

A more interesting option on the Phillies? Jimmy Rollins.

A baseball executive recently suggested that Jimmy Rollins’ contract would be a deterrent if the Phillies were to move him, but they may have one suitor. Danny Knobler of CBS Sports writes that the Dodgers are looking to upgrade at shortstop, and have some interest in Rollins.

The biggest red flag with Rollins is, of course, the aforementioned three-year contract he signed this offseason. The Phillies guaranteed Rollins $33MM through his age-35 season, and the contract also contains a vesting option for a fourth year at another $11MM. That option is said to be easily attainable for Rollins, and is contingent on plate appearances. As Knobler points out on Twitter, Rollins also has 10-and-5 rights, which give him the ability to veto any potential trade.

To be honest, I don’t even get why he would be available. What would the Phillies do at shortstop? That’s not a team built to rebuild and they aren’t going to find a superior replacement.

Regardless, if he does become available, the Dodgers are right to be interested. In 2012 he’s hitting .262/.317/.421/.739 with a .322 wOBA, which is unimpressive until you consider how terrible MLB shortstops are (average SS wOBA is .297). Factor in defense and baserunning and he’s on pace for a 3-4 WAR season, well worth the $11 million.

What about after that though, right? Well, he’ll probably regress a bit, especially as injury becomes a concern. I’m not saying there aren’t red flags, but the better question is what other options would be available? I looked at the 2013 and 2014 free agents, but couldn’t find a single one that I’d rather have, even considering the price tag.

Best of all, I can’t think of a reason the Phillies would move him if not in a salary dump for whatever reason, so the cost in prospects shouldn’t be significant.

=====

Here’s an unpopular thought: Maybe the Dodgers shouldn’t buy at the trading deadline.

It’s quite the flawed team, so even if they do manage to get into the playoffs, barring a miracle run (it’s the playoffs after all), they would likely run into trouble early.

I suggest this change in 2012 philosophy primarily because if the Dodgers continue to falter, and they are like 3-5 games back of the division at the end of the month, it’s not worth it for them to be giving up any of their future to improve this season.

The way the NL West is going, the second place team isn’t going to be in wild card contention anyway, so if the team does in fact stand pat or make only minor moves, maybe it has less to do with a lack of will to win and more to do with just making sense.

So with the Dodgers basically looking at everybody, and with the Carlos Lee trade falling through, the team has now revealed five teams that their scouts are watching intently as potential trading partners.

Dodgers scouts have an increased presence with Milwaukee, as well as continued coverage of the Chicago Cubs, Colorado, Philadelphia and Minnesota.

The players believed in their sights include Brewers sluggers Aramis Ramirez and Corey Hart; Cubs starting pitcher Ryan Dempster; Rockies outfielder Michael Cuddyer; and Phillies starting pitcher Cole Hamels. At the top of the club’s wish list are a productive corner infielder and a starting pitcher.

I thought the five players were intriguing options, so I decided to take a detailed look at all of them.

=====

Aramis Ramirez – 3B – Brewers

Dodgers third basemen on the year have combined to go .245/.319/.340/.659, and that’s being kind because utility man Jerry Hairston Jr. has a .326/.380/.500/.880 line in 50 plate appearances there. Hairston operates best as a super utility guy though, so Ramirez would essentially be a Juan Uribe (.200/.259/.280/.539)/Adam Kennedy (.228/.319/.289/.608)replacement.

Ramirez has hit .263/.341/.471/.812 so far in 2012 and he projects to improve on that a bit at .274/.341/.484/.824. Uribe and Kennedy are about average defensively, while Ramirez is well below average, bordering on poor. There’s a five to ten run gap on defense that Ramirez will have to make up, and that he does. For the rest of 2012, Ramirez projects to be about 20-25 runs better offensively than the combination of men he’s replacing. If you buy into his splits, which for his career have him ~60 OPS points higher in the second half, the disparity could be even more significant. Also, despite being 34, his peripherals show little sign of decline.

Of course, there’s the problem of the contract that the team would be taking on. Making $6 million in 2012, $10 million in 2013, and $16 million in 2014 with a 2015 mutual option/$4 million buyout, the Dodgers would hypothetically be on the hook for about $32 million for 2.5 years of service.

A bit painful but perhaps not overly terrible for a 3-4 WAR player, even one due to regress because of age. Ramirez would basically have to be worth around 7 or 8 WAR to make it work, and he figures to be in the neighborhood of that figure. Furthermore, he plays third, and unlike the corner outfield positions, third basemen are a much rarer asset. This is particularly true for the Dodgers, who have a complete dearth of internal options. Now factor in that the free agent market might come down to Maicier Izturis, and Ramirez isn’t such a terrible shot to take.

For the Brewers part, the Dodgers will probably have to wait until the last minute. Milwaukee sits a mere seven games back of first right now, which may seem like a lot, but with two wild card spots this year and the Cardinals late charge in 2011 fresh in everybody’s memory, they’ll probably be taking this decision down to the wire. One winning streak and they may not end up selling off at all.

—–

Corey Hart – RF – Brewers

Dodgers left fielders have hit .242/.300/.333/.632 on the year, which is amazingly bad. Hart would be a boon for the team, as he’s currently at .251/.313/.505/.818 and projects to hit .264/.327/.484/.811 the rest of the way. An average fielder, he would improve that area of the outfield as well, as they are basically stuck with Juan Rivera and Bobby Abreu as their primary options.

Hart is signed through 2013 and makes $9 million in 2012 and $10 million in 2013. His contract is more than reasonable for a 3-4 WAR player, and he’s a potential addition who could make upwards of a 25-35 run difference over the rest of the year (that’s being conservative, really).

Like Ramirez though, he may never become available, as the Brewers may never end up selling.

—–

Ryan Dempster – RHP – Cubs

I already addressed his potential addition here, but his acquisition makes even more sense now with Ted Lilly being transferred to the 60-day DL, health unknown, as Dempster would be a huge improvement over Nate Eovaldi.

The Cubs are 14 games back and are shopping everybody, so he’ll be on the market.

—–

Cole Hamels – LHP – Phillies

I like Hamels for the same reason I like Dempster, except he’s even better than Dempster and has a longer track record of excellence without the immediate injury history. He’s a consistent 3.5-4.5 WAR pitcher and a solid #1/#2 to slot behind Clayton Kershaw if the Dodgers can make the playoffs.

A 2.79 ERA/3.05 FIP/3.02 xFIP/3.03 SIERA in 2011 and a 3.08 ERA/3.28 FIP/3.24 xFIP/3.25 SIERA in 2012 basically says it all.

Hamels makes $15 million in 2012 and is slated to be a free agent, one that will probably be pursued by the Dodgers either way. The Phillies are 12 games back and should be sellers.

—–

Michael Cuddyer – RF – Rockies

Like Hart, he would be replacing a terrible concoction of outfielders that the Dodgers have trotted out in left field. Like Hart, he’s a solid hitter. Putting up a .284/.346/.459/.805 line in 2011, he has dropped a bit to .260/.313/.480/.793 in 2012, but projects to finish at a .281/.338/.485/.823 clip. Unlike Hart, he’s a rather poor defender, and I do have concerns that Coors Field is playing insane again, yet he’s still down a bit. That concern is especially true because he’s 33.

As far as his contract goes, he makes $10.5 million in 2012, 2013, and 2014, with performance bonuses that could up it by $1.5 million in 2014. A reasonable deal for a 2.5-3.5 WAR player, but I think Hart is both the better overall player and the one with less risk.

The Rockies are 14 games back at the moment and surely would be willing to sell, even if it’s within the division.

=====

Overall, all of the rumored players mentioned represent significant improvements to the team. Unlike Carlos Lee, they are likely to be difference makers for the Dodgers, thus making it understandable that they surrender assets for them. Whether the trades are workable or worth it obviously still depends on what the Dodgers give up and the finances involved, but if these are the types of players the team is pursuing, they definitely seem headed down the right road.

Gross approves #Dodgers sale.

— Bill Shaikin (@BillShaikin) April 14, 2012

Of course, it didn’t go off without a hitch, because … MLB.

Bottom line: MLB tried a Hail Mary to get around the settlement terms to which it agreed, and to which other owners subsequently dissented.

— Bill Shaikin (@BillShaikin) April 14, 2012

Get around the provisions that they agreed to? They wouldn’t do that!

Hearing over. The #Dodgers should have new owners April 30.

— Bill Shaikin (@BillShaikin) April 14, 2012

It’s … overrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr.

Finally.

—–

At least the judge had a sense of humor about the situation, managing to work in a Cole Hamels joke.

Gross: “I was looking in the order for language that says they can’t sign Cole Hamels. I couldn’t find it, but I may still insert it.”

— Bill Shaikin (@BillShaikin) April 14, 2012