Japanese right-hander Shohei Otani has announced that he will stay in Japan and sign with the Nippon Ham Fighters, the team that drafted him the first-round of the 2012 NPB Draft. The announcement was expected for a few days now, according to the Japanese media, but this made it official.

According to both the Japanese media and the Dodgers media, the Dodgers were the favorites to land him were he to venture overseas to the MLB.

Shohei Otani has announced today that he will hold a press conference on Sunday, and, according to Sanspo, the expectation is that he will say he has chosen to stay in Japan with the Nippon Ham Fighters.

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On Dec. 7, Nippon Ham announced that Shohei Otani will hold a news conference on Dec. 9 in the Iwate Prefecture. It’s expected that Otani will announce that he has decided to sign and play for Nippon Ham.

Previously, Otani was determined to sign with an MLB team, and he expressed his desire to not be drafted by any NPB teams. But Nippon Ham decided to draft him in the first round despite his pleas, and due to the strong words and persistence of Nippon Ham’s manager, Otani now seems set to sign with Nippon Ham.

Source: Sanspo

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Can’t disagree with any of what the article says, as I doubt he would announce that he’s going to America in the presence of three top Nippon Ham officials.

Still, it’s quite the turnaround from the time he was drafted, when he basically gave the Fighters no chance to sign him. However, as I feared, slowly the team got to him and convinced him that staying was the right move.

As I said previously, there was optimism surrounding him because he was a first-round talent as an arm, and inking him certainly would have been a boon to the Dodgers depleted system.

Grantland: Part 1 of Jonah Keri ranking the 50 best players in terms of trade value. No Dodgers here yet, but Carlos Santana finds a spot at #43.

The other two catcher rankings are the ones likely to elicit the most hate mail. In the first draft of this list, I had Santana considerably higher. Twenty-six-year-old switch-hitting catcher, career .806 OPS, signed for peanuts at four years, $18 million with an affordable $12 million option that would keep him in-house through 2017. By any objective standard, that would seem to make him a monumental bargain. Except the Lords of the Realm might not agree. There are the obvious concerns, such as Santana’s subpar defense, which (along with a semi-platoon designed to get him more at-bats) contributed to his playing 66 games at first base in 2011, with 21 at first and 27 at DH in 2012. Then there’s baseball’s continuing bias against low-average, high-walk hitters, even when we thought that was all behind us. The early buzz around Nick Swisher suggests he’ll be disappointed in his free-agent haul, while the cash-stuffed Rangers thought so little of Mike Napoli’s three-true-outcomes offense that they didn’t even make him a qualifying offer this offseason, meaning they think a one-year deal for a shade over $13 million is an overpay. If the Jered Weaver ranking constitutes ignoring the herd, consider the Santana ranking a case of acknowledging it.

Given how he’s perceived publicly, quite frankly I was surprised he made it onto the list at all.

Grantland: Part 2 of Jonah Keri ranking the 50 best players in terms of trade value. Matt Kemp checks in at #22.

Tulo and Kemp are franchise players…

OK, there are theoretically some scenarios that could see one of these guys traded:

C. The Dodgers decide they don’t feel like running $250 million payrolls anymore and stage an everything-must-go sale.

That’s about it, really.

Clayton Kershaw comes in at #13.

Practically speaking, there’s no way that Kershaw or Verlander will get traded, not even with both two years away from free agency. The Dodgers have shown they’ll throw ungodly amounts of money at slightly above-average players, let alone all-world pitchers, so Kershaw’s staying.

Yeah, at this point, it’s just a matter of whether or not he’ll get the richest contract for a pitcher in MLB history.

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FanGraphs: Speaking of money … Wendy Thurm takes a look at every television rights contract in the MLB.

I … uh … can see why some teams might be a bit upset.

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FanGraphs: As the power game has decreased, the running game has become more important. Seems to make complete sense, not be counter-intuitive.

The relationship is clear: the league took a year to catch up, but as run production goes down, stolen bases go up (For the record, the coefficient of determination between OPS and SBA/SBO is 0.78.).

It might seem counter-intuitive — the more run scoring drops, the more we hear about the sanctity of the out. Each of the 27 is hugely valuable, yes, but as run scoring drops each plate appearance is also more likely to produce an out.

The league on-base percentage has fallen from .336 in 2007 to .319 in 2012, and therefore the marginal out — the out risked by the stolen base — is less valuable. That’s why the “runCS” value in the Guts section — the cost in runs of a caught stealing — has lessened from minus-.433 in 2007 to minus-.398 in 2012.

Put another way, the stolen base becomes a less risky proposition because there is less to lose. The hitter at the plate is now less likely to get on base or hit a run-scoring extra base hit, and the chances of two hitters singling in an inning to knock a runner home drops in a compound fashion. Conversely, making the hitter’s job easier becomes more valuable now that the “wait for a three-run homer” strategy isn’t as viable.

The break-even rate on steals has fallen from 68 percent to 66 percent, down from 70 percent at the height of the steroids era in 2000. A player that stole 75 bases and was caught 25 times would have gained 4.2 runs of value in 2007. In 2012, that number rises to 5.1, and the player likely would have been running 10-20 percent more often; a routinely successful basestealer’s value in the running game therefore increases by some 30-40 percent.

It’s a great article, primarily because it shows that the break-even point for stealing success has fallen all the way down to 66%. Best to remember that during the season.

Wouldn’t it be nice if Dee Gordon could get on base enough to use his speed in this new environment?

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Yahoo! Sports: Jeff Passan has the story about how the MLB wants to ditch the posting system.

Major League Baseball and Nippon Professional Baseball are discussing significant changes to the posting system that brings players from Japan to the major leagues, sources told Yahoo! Sports.

While the talks haven’t moved beyond cursory stages, MLB is pushing NPB for a system in which teams no longer would bid blindly for the right to negotiate with a player but rather would participate in a traditional, open auction, the sources said.

Such a format likely would lessen the amount of money funneled toward the Japanese team that posts the player. In the cases of Yu Darvish and Daisuke Matsuzaka, their NPB teams received more than a $50 million windfall, a huge boon for a league with manifold financial struggles.

MLB and the players’ union agree they’d prefer to see a larger percentage of the money spent on high-end imports go to the player, the sources said.

Here … we … go.

Why the dramatics? Because this could be the start of a conflict between the leagues, as the NPB were the ones who wanted to change their rules in regards to their high school players going to the MLB in the aftermath of Shohei Otani‘s announcement. But now the MLB is requesting that they concede to them on posting fees. They are different issues, but they’re going to butt heads at some point in the near future it seems.

The posting fees are the far more significant deal though, IMO. Last I checked, and I admittedly don’t check regularly, I think only the Yomiuri Giants and a couple other teams in the NPB operate in the black. Everybody else is in the red for one reason or another, so these gigantic fees they get by selling off their elite players to the MLB helps the team — and the company that owns them — immensely. As such, I can’t see them going down without a fight.

Maybe there’s a happy medium here though, where a reasonable auction-type situation gets implemented with the NPB team getting to set a reserve price, and where the MLB concedes a bit of ground to the NPB on the signing of Japan’s amateur players so that Japanese fans get to watch their best young talent for at least half a decade or so.

Either way, it seems that something is going to change in regards to the relationship between the two leagues, and it’ll probably happen sooner rather than later.

The Dodgers are the favorite to win the Zack Greinke sweepstakes, according to Michael Silverman of the Boston Herald.

According to an industry insider, the Dodgers are the favorites to wind up with top free agent starter Zack Greinke, with the Angels and Rangers on the outside looking in. And no starting pitcher on the market is going to be complaining by the end of the hot stove season.

Furthermore, “rival GMs” are telling ESPN‘s Buster Olney that if the Dodgers want him, they’ll get him.

The Rangers want Zack Greinke and are willing to be aggressive. The Angels want to keep Greinke. But ultimately, rival GMs predict, if the Dodgers intend to sign Greinke, they will get him. L.A. is also bidding for Hiroki Kuroda, whom they know well from his previous time with the team. “Cost is no object for them,” said a GM. “They are playing a different game than the rest of us right now.”

All of this is great news if you were worried (like me) about how the pitching rotation would shake out even with all this spending. Greinke, despite whatever concerns you may have about him, has more than enough talent to slot in as a #1/#2 type behind Clayton Kershaw.

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The Dodgers are also front-runners (or close to it) for Hiroki Kuroda‘s services, according to Mark Saxon of ESPN Los Angeles.

Previously, teams have been under the impression that Kuroda would either re-sign with the New York Yankees or return to his native Japan to finish his career. But Kuroda has told friends that his first preference is to pitch in Southern California, where his two daughters are attending elementary school.

Joel Sherman of the New York Post adds that the Yankees are only willing to give him a one-year deal, which only adds to the chances that he ends up in California.

That is because, The Post has learned, the Yankees are willing to offer Kuroda just a one-year contract at present. Two other teams that seemingly would be attractive to Kuroda, the Dodgers and Angels, probably would be willing to offer at least a two-year pact to the righty.

I do wonder how much truth there is to all of this talk, because signing two or three starters in free agency (also rumored to be in on Anibal Sanchez) would mean they have eight or nine starters going into 2013. Now, after that A-Gon trade, I’m never going to completely dismiss a Dodger rumor when it comes to them spending money, but it does seem unlikely that they are in the lead for all these pitchers.

As far as Kuroda goes, I’m not sure how much legitimacy there is in him wanting a two-year deal. With the way he pitched a couple years ago, if he wanted a multi-year deal he could have got one, but he took that one-year deal because he wasn’t sure about his feelings in the future. Perhaps he changed his mind, but it would seem inconsistent with his previous behavior that he would now want to be locked in for more than a year.

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Dodgers are a member of the group of teams after Kyuji Fujikawa.

Right-hander Kyuji Fujikawa started meeting with MLB clubs and touring their facilities this past week, reports Gerry Fraley of The Dallas Morning News. He’s already visited the Diamondbacks and Cubs and is expected to meet with both the Dodgers and Angels as well. It’s unclear if he’ll meet with the Rangers on this trip.

An interesting relief option out of Japan. Video from the 2012 NPB season here:

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Nick Cafardo of The Boston Globe says Kevin Youkilis is on the radar for the Dodgers.

9. Kevin Youkilis, 1B/3B, free agent — Good-sized market so far for Youkilis, at both third and first base, according to his agent, Joe Bick. The Indians are looking at him as a first baseman, while the Phillies and Dodgers are considering him at third (a back-burner option for the Dodgers). The Diamondbacks made a call, but Towers indicated they will likely not be involved.

Hell, why not, right? If the rumors are true that they’re just going to spend anything they want, why not sign Youkilis? Even if you like Luis Cruz over him, Youkilis is useful off the bench anyway.

So a popular question lately has been: “What the hell happened to Shohei Otani?”

In short? Nothing, because despite whatever speculation there had been about MLB teams technically having no need to respect NPB exclusivity rights, like I said in a previous post about the situation, I see no upside for an MLB team to just barge in and violate the status quo.

Basically, the latest on the Otani front is that the Nippon Ham Fighters are meeting with his parents and what not, but not him, personally. There have been zero contract talks, so while the media is saying a bunch of stuff (and editorializing a bit), it doesn’t seem like there’s anything substantial going on that would be worth reporting if it wasn’t for the nature of this situation.

As I said, just wait.

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Speaking of potential signings out of Asia, Stan Kasten is saying that they might not sign Hyun Jin Ryu until after the Winter Meetings, which end only a few days before the deadline.

According to Kasten, the Dodgers might not determine whether to sign Ryu until after they see what pitchers they can acquire in trade or free agency by the time the winter meetings end Dec. 6.

“That’s a decision that doesn’t have to be made until after the winter meetings are over,” Kasten said.

Doubt this means anything since Scott Boras tends to drag situations like these out to the bitter end to extract every penny he can anyway.

I expect Ryu to sign and deserve to be in the rotation over Aaron Harang and Ted Lilly but start the year in AAA anyway because the former two are veterans or whatever garbage excuse they will use.

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Mark Saxon of ESPN Los Angeles reports that the Dodgers are out on Torii Hunter.

Source: Dodgers out on Torii Hunter

— Mark Saxon (@markasaxon) November 13, 2012

Good.

Did anybody really think he made sense?

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In what is probably the best news of the off-season, the Dodgers went on an international scout hiring spree.

Colletti said the hiring spree is probably over after essentially acquiring the international scouting staff of the Seattle Mariners. Two weeks ago the Dodgers hired Bob Engle as vice president of international scouting and Monday they brought on six of his Mariners staff — Pedro Avila, Gene Grimaldi, Patrick Guerrero, Pat Kelly, Jamey Storvick and Mike Tosar.

The Dodgers on Monday also announced the additions of Josh Bard as special assistant, player personnel and professional scouts Willie Fraser and Scott Groot. Former Dodgers third baseman Bill Mueller, who served as special assistant, player personnel, will become a full-time professional scout.

“The fact the Dodgers were dead last in international signings, that was hard to believe,” said Kasten. “For me, it’s a priority, and not just signing players as the end result, but getting the people to sign the players.”

“We’ve doubled the size of the [international] scouting operation,” said Colletti. “A couple years ago when we traded veterans, we looked at other organizations and saw a lot of the successful teams got a lot of players not born in the U.S. It was time for us to get back invested in it.”

For me, this is probably the best part about the new ownership thus far.

Just a quick update here on the status of Shohei Otani, who I have been following because the Dodgers are one of the rumored teams in the lead for his services. As they promised, the Nippon Ham Fighters have taken him in the first round of today’s NPB Draft, which is risky to say the least.

Has he changed his mind about Japan/America? According to him, not really.

Caught Otani’s quick Q&A. Basically good image of Fighters, feelings about heading to U.S. unchanged. #NPB #MLB

— Jason Coskrey (@JCoskrey) October 25, 2012

I will say though, given their track record, if there was a team could get Otani to stay, the Fighters are it

— Jason Coskrey (@JCoskrey) October 25, 2012

It’s the latter tweet that concerns me, as there’s a lot of time between now and April.

The big news out of Japan today is that the Nippon Ham Fighters have decided to select Shohei Otani with their first-round pick in tomorrow’s NPB Draft, according to Sanspo.

Ever since I tweeted out that information, I’ve been getting a bunch of questions, so I thought I should make a post dedicated to answering them as best I could.

Does the NPB Draft work like the MLB Draft?

No.

The first round of the NPB Draft is a lottery system, where every team submits who they want to take. If you’re the only team that selects a player, then you are awarded his rights. However, if multiple teams select the same player, then there’s a random draw for that player’s services. The system repeats until every team has a player.

So it would be like if all 30 MLB teams decided they wanted Bryce Harper in the first round, then the way it’s determined who gets him is based on the luck of the draw. Literally.

After the first round, it’s a standard snake-format draft.

Why is it surprising that the Nippon Ham Fighters want to draft him?

It’s surprising because he already announced his intention to go overseas. An unsigned pick wouldn’t be a gigantic deal in America due to our compensation system (Mark Appel/Pirates), but in Japan it is because if you don’t sign your pick then the pick is gone forever.

To make matters worse, Nippon Ham already lost their first-round pick from last year, Tomoyuki Sugano, as he refused to sign due to his desire to play under his uncle with the Yomiuri Giants.

Needless to say, Nippon Ham fans aren’t very happy about the risk associated with this, at least judging by a small sample of reactions I found on Twitter.

So why does this complicate things for the Dodgers, Red Sox, and Rangers, the three main teams he’s rumored to be considering?

Unless the MLB and the teams involved really want a mess on their hands, they will not be able to interfere with the exclusive rights granted to the NPB team that drafts Otani until the period of negotiation ends on March 31st. As such, he’ll miss spring ball for 2013 if he’s taken.

So hypothetically speaking, that drags the saga out but it’s just an inconvenience … right? Well, in my opinion, the real risk with him being drafted is that he could be tempted to stay in Japan given time to talk it through with the team that selects him. He is, after all, only a teenager, and there are a lot of reasons besides baseball to want to stay in Japan.

Social and cultural reasons aside, Sponichi makes the case that he would be guaranteed more money by staying in Japan. While the signing bonus from an NPB team would presumably fall short of any MLB offer by a million dollars or so, he could still get a 100 million yen ($1 million) bonus in Japan and he’ll immediately be under NPB contract. On the other hand, in the MLB system, after the bonus money, he would be subjected to the standard paltry pay of a minor-leaguer. Of course, this would be rendered moot by any MLB team willing to accept the penalties in place for exceeding the cap, but I’m not so sure teams would be willing to do so.

Overall, it’s just concerning because it’s easy to say you’re going to do something, but when the easy route is laid out in front of somebody (much less a teenager), with millions of dollars at stake, and a ton of pressure, nobody could blame him for simply taking what might be a record deal given to him by whoever drafts him.

Also of note is that he’ll be banned from the NPB for three years under the “Tazawa Rule” (named after Junichi Tazawa of the Red Sox) if he chooses to go overseas, but I doubt that comes into play.

Who is going to sign him?

I sort of addressed this already, but it’s basically down to the Dodgers, Rangers, and Red Sox, according to him. Others are interested but he’s focusing on those three.

The Japanese media believe the Dodgers are in front because they’ve been in contact with him the longest. While that does mean something, a ton can change, obviously.

How does the NPB feel about Shohei Otani jumping to the MLB?

As I explained in a previous post, this is a trailblazing path for Otani, and the NPB is concerned about the precedent he might set.

Articles from Nikkan Sports and Spoinichi show a range of reactions from teams that basically can be summarized to say that the NPB needs to look at revising the rules.

Most notably to me, via Daily Sports, the President of the Hanshin Tigers complains that while NPB scouts are restricted in terms of contact and meetings with players, international scouts are not, thus putting NPB teams at a disadvantage for their own players.

I want Cliffs Notes!

If he doesn’t get drafted, negotiations can start tomorrow.

If selected in the NPB Draft, he could be tempted to stay in Japan due to monetary, cultural, and family issues, and even if he does follow through on his overseas ambitions, negotiations with him wouldn’t be able to start until April 1st. As such, it doesn’t appear that this saga will be over for at least another 6-7 months or so.

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Since the Dodgers are in the running for his services and he’d definitely be a top prospect in the system if signed, I’ll keep everybody updated on his situation as best I can.

Shohei Otani, the fire-balling high school Japanese pitching phenom, has opted for a career in the MLB, according to the Associated Press.

Otani, a 6-foot-4 right-hander who has thrown a fastball between 99 and 100 mph, has been scouted by several major league teams including the Los Angeles Dodgers and Boston Red Sox.

The 18-year-old Otani said “I think I will start in the minor leagues but I want to challenge in the majors. It’s been my dream since entering high school.”

Otani was expected to go in the first round of Thursday’s amateur draft in Japan.

If he signs with a major league team, Otani would become the first potential top draft pick to make the direct jump from a Japanese high school to the U.S.

The AP has the Dodgers in a competition with the Red Sox.

I wrote about Otani in detail a couple weeks ago, and at that time, the Dodgers were described as “front-runners” for his services, according to the Japanese media. The significant issues back then primarily revolved around his willingness to do exactly what he just did, so now that he’s made his decision, his path to the Dodgers has gotten a lot clearer.

Any fan of the team has to hope he chooses the Dodgers, as it would be impossible to overpay him due to international budget restraints, and it’s not every day that one has the chance to add a high-90s high school arm to the system.

The Dodgers are “front-runners” for the services of Japanese high school phenom Shohei Otani, according to the Japanese media. Meanwhile, stateside, Alex Speier of WEEI and Gerry Fraley of the Dallas Morning News both confirm the Dodgers interest in the 18-year-old, who stands 6’4″ at 190 pounds.

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Logan White and the Dodgers scouting department has been cultivating a relationship with Otani and his coach for a while now, and it appears to be paying dividends.

The Los Angeles Dodgers will be/were the first to meet with Otani today. They had actually scheduled an appointment to drop by Hanamaki Higashi before they knew that he was going to file his letter of intent. Logan White (Assistant GM, Amateur and International Scouting), Acey Kohrogi (Executive Director, Asian Operations and Scouting), and Keiichi Kojima (scout) are expected to attend the meeting. The Red Sox are also said to be interested.

Dodgers could be front runners for Otani: scout Kojima has been keeping track of Otani since he was a first year high school student and assistant GM White was in Japan in March to watch him pitch in a practice game. Otani will not attend the meeting. Hanamaki Higashi manager Hiroshi Sasaki will represent him. At least five MLB teams, including the Rangers and Red Sox are said to be interested.

So why all the commotion over him? Well, he touches 100 mph with his heater and has an assortment of off-speed pitches that he flashes in the videos at the bottom of this post. Additionally, this would mark the first time that a Japanese high schooler comes to America without first going through the NPB (Nippon Professional Baseball), so it’s potentially a trailblazing moment as well.

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As you could probably guess, due to him not currently being owned by a Japanese team, there will be no posting fee involved here, but he will be subject to international signing rules. Until June 15, 2013, all teams have $2.9 million to spend (July 2, 2012 was the start date of the period, hence Yasiel Puig) on the international market, and while they can spend more, the penalties are severe.

The rules for the spending pools are somewhat similar to the Draft spending pools in terms of the penalties that come with going over the limit. Going over by up to five percent will result in a 75-percent tax on the overage. Landing in the 5-to-10-percent range will bring a 100-percent tax and the loss of the right to give more than one player in the next signing period a bonus of more than $500,000. Going over by 10-to-15 percent will lead to a 100-percent tax and the inability to sign any player for more than $500,000 in the next signing period. Any team going over a 15-percent threshold will get hit with a 100-percent tax on the overage and won’t be able to exceed $250,000 for any one player in the next signing period.

“But the Dodgers don’t care about money, so just offer him eleventy billion dollars!”

They may not care about money, but they probably do care about not being able to spend more than $500k or $250k on a prospect during the next signing period, as it would mean not being able to secure elite talent. So in that sense, the rules become restrictive regardless of financial wealth, which is what was intended.

So with that established, how much do the Dodgers have to spend?

If you recall, the Dodgers previously inked five international prospects for around $1.1-1.3 million. They later signed Julio Urias, but only around 25% of his fee will count against the cap.

So just guesstimating here, if the Dodgers are willing to go into the first tier of penalties, they should have around $1.5-1.6 million to play with. That’s likely adequate compensation to get a deal done if Otani wants to sign with the Dodgers.

And that’s a big “if”.

It’s unlikely that the primary obstacle here will end up being money. Otani’s decision will likely revolve around his willingness to leave home for a foreign land as a teenager, his ability to deal with becoming a trailblazer and breaking tradition, and perhaps most importantly, the ramifications his decision will have on the relationship between him and the NPB, the MLB and the NPB, and the Dodgers and the NPB.

Unlike Korea and Taiwan, who inexplicably (IMO) let MLB teams pilfer their amateur talent, the NPB still has a handshake agreement in place with the MLB regarding their amateur players. And while I don’t have an inside track on how this all shakes out, given Otani’s immense talent, if he decides he wants to sign overseas, the strength of that agreement will be put to the test.

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Shohei Otani Touching 100 MPH

Shohei Otani Game Footage