Japanese right-hander Shohei Otani has announced that he will stay in Japan and sign with the Nippon Ham Fighters, the team that drafted him the first-round of the 2012 NPB Draft. The announcement was expected for a few days now, according to the Japanese media, but this made it official.

According to both the Japanese media and the Dodgers media, the Dodgers were the favorites to land him were he to venture overseas to the MLB.

Shohei Otani has announced today that he will hold a press conference on Sunday, and, according to Sanspo, the expectation is that he will say he has chosen to stay in Japan with the Nippon Ham Fighters.

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On Dec. 7, Nippon Ham announced that Shohei Otani will hold a news conference on Dec. 9 in the Iwate Prefecture. It’s expected that Otani will announce that he has decided to sign and play for Nippon Ham.

Previously, Otani was determined to sign with an MLB team, and he expressed his desire to not be drafted by any NPB teams. But Nippon Ham decided to draft him in the first round despite his pleas, and due to the strong words and persistence of Nippon Ham’s manager, Otani now seems set to sign with Nippon Ham.

Source: Sanspo

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Can’t disagree with any of what the article says, as I doubt he would announce that he’s going to America in the presence of three top Nippon Ham officials.

Still, it’s quite the turnaround from the time he was drafted, when he basically gave the Fighters no chance to sign him. However, as I feared, slowly the team got to him and convinced him that staying was the right move.

As I said previously, there was optimism surrounding him because he was a first-round talent as an arm, and inking him certainly would have been a boon to the Dodgers depleted system.

Shohei Otani, who once declared definitively that he was headed to America, is having second thoughts about that decision after meeting with the Nippon Ham Fighters, which was the thing I feared the most at the time of the announcement.

Shohei Otani, 18, who had vowed to sign in MLB, might now lean to staying in Japan, per Japanese media. #Dodgers interested, still fluid.

— Bill Shaikin (@BillShaikin) December 3, 2012

Source: #Dodgers would be “shocked” if Otani declares for MLB and does not sign with them — but skeptical that he will declare for MLB.

— Bill Shaikin (@BillShaikin) December 3, 2012

As far as specifics go, Sponichi Annex reports that Otani was probably offered the max salary and the number 11, which holds significance because it was worn by Yu Darvish.

Additionally, Sanspo quotes a source saying that the Nippon Ham Fighters are indeed no longer an impossible destination for Otani, and that he might even be leaning that way now.

Japanese pitching prospect Shohei Otani wants to decide this week whether to remain in Japan or come to the U.S. bit.ly/XhMuZb

— Dylan Hernandez (@dylanohernandez) December 3, 2012

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The rumors about the Dodgers actively shopping Dee Gordon only seem to be growing with time.

The Dodgers are shopping Dee Gordon in trades, according to Peter Gammons of the MLB Network. The 24-year-old Gordon figures to draw significant interest given the dearth of shortstops available via free agency.

As I said earlier, it’ll be interesting to see how exactly teams perceive him and what his value is.

Personally, I couldn’t accept him as the centerpiece in any significant deal, especially for somebody like, say, James Shields.

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The Rays have signed former Dodger first baseman James Loney to a one-year deal.

Free agent first baseman James Loney has agreed to a one-year, $2 million contract with the Tampa Bay Rays pending a physical exam, said a baseball source.

The deal will pay Loney an additional $1 million if he reaches specified performance bonuses, the source said.

I guess that’s actually not a terrible deal. I mean, expectations are basically zilch at that point.

Didn’t realize it until I was done typing it up, but this is an exclusively Japanese player rumor update.

Anyway, Kyuji Fujikawa is reportedly down to five teams, with one of them being the Dodgers.

Fujikawa has reportedly met with the Dodgers, Angels, Orioles, Cubs and Diamondbacks. The Rangers are also said to have interest in the 32-year-old, who has been Japan’s best closer for the past several years. He is reportedly looking for a multiyear deal on his first foray into Major League Baseball. Because he is a free agent, interested teams are not required to go through the posting process with Fujikawa.

The Dodgers earlier “interest” has now been specified to “finalist” as they look to add even more dynamite to a bullpen with boom or bust potential.

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According to Nikkan Sports, Shohei Otani is meeting with the Nippon Ham Fighters, and one of the team’s pitches to him is letting him hit as well as pitch.

Basically, the team’s General Manager said that he can be a pioneer in Japanese baseball, as attempting such a dual role in the MLB is not possible. Also, they’ve scheduled another meeting for next week.

So I guess the gist of it is that they are willing to let him do whatever he wants if he’ll sign with them.

I wouldn’t read too much into it, but he has gone from completely dismissing any notion of staying in Japan to meeting with the team regularly, so there has to be more concern than there was on draft day.

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Those dreams of signing Hiroki Kuroda have now ended, even if the Dodgers and Angels were allegedly the preferred destinations for him, as the Yankees have re-signed the starter for a year.

The Yankees have retained their most consistent starter from 2012 as the club has announced that it has re-signed Hiroki Kuroda to a one-year contract. ESPN’s Buster Olney reports that Kuroda’s contract is worth $15MM (plus incentives worth less than $1MM) and was the first to break the news that Kuroda had agreed to terms with New York (Twitter links). Kuroda is represented by the Octagon agency.

Obviously Zack Greinke, Anibal Sanchez, and Hyun Jin Ryu are still very much in play for the Dodgers.

So a popular question lately has been: “What the hell happened to Shohei Otani?”

In short? Nothing, because despite whatever speculation there had been about MLB teams technically having no need to respect NPB exclusivity rights, like I said in a previous post about the situation, I see no upside for an MLB team to just barge in and violate the status quo.

Basically, the latest on the Otani front is that the Nippon Ham Fighters are meeting with his parents and what not, but not him, personally. There have been zero contract talks, so while the media is saying a bunch of stuff (and editorializing a bit), it doesn’t seem like there’s anything substantial going on that would be worth reporting if it wasn’t for the nature of this situation.

As I said, just wait.

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Speaking of potential signings out of Asia, Stan Kasten is saying that they might not sign Hyun Jin Ryu until after the Winter Meetings, which end only a few days before the deadline.

According to Kasten, the Dodgers might not determine whether to sign Ryu until after they see what pitchers they can acquire in trade or free agency by the time the winter meetings end Dec. 6.

“That’s a decision that doesn’t have to be made until after the winter meetings are over,” Kasten said.

Doubt this means anything since Scott Boras tends to drag situations like these out to the bitter end to extract every penny he can anyway.

I expect Ryu to sign and deserve to be in the rotation over Aaron Harang and Ted Lilly but start the year in AAA anyway because the former two are veterans or whatever garbage excuse they will use.

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Mark Saxon of ESPN Los Angeles reports that the Dodgers are out on Torii Hunter.

Source: Dodgers out on Torii Hunter

— Mark Saxon (@markasaxon) November 13, 2012

Good.

Did anybody really think he made sense?

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In what is probably the best news of the off-season, the Dodgers went on an international scout hiring spree.

Colletti said the hiring spree is probably over after essentially acquiring the international scouting staff of the Seattle Mariners. Two weeks ago the Dodgers hired Bob Engle as vice president of international scouting and Monday they brought on six of his Mariners staff — Pedro Avila, Gene Grimaldi, Patrick Guerrero, Pat Kelly, Jamey Storvick and Mike Tosar.

The Dodgers on Monday also announced the additions of Josh Bard as special assistant, player personnel and professional scouts Willie Fraser and Scott Groot. Former Dodgers third baseman Bill Mueller, who served as special assistant, player personnel, will become a full-time professional scout.

“The fact the Dodgers were dead last in international signings, that was hard to believe,” said Kasten. “For me, it’s a priority, and not just signing players as the end result, but getting the people to sign the players.”

“We’ve doubled the size of the [international] scouting operation,” said Colletti. “A couple years ago when we traded veterans, we looked at other organizations and saw a lot of the successful teams got a lot of players not born in the U.S. It was time for us to get back invested in it.”

For me, this is probably the best part about the new ownership thus far.

Just a quick update here on the status of Shohei Otani, who I have been following because the Dodgers are one of the rumored teams in the lead for his services. As they promised, the Nippon Ham Fighters have taken him in the first round of today’s NPB Draft, which is risky to say the least.

Has he changed his mind about Japan/America? According to him, not really.

Caught Otani’s quick Q&A. Basically good image of Fighters, feelings about heading to U.S. unchanged. #NPB #MLB

— Jason Coskrey (@JCoskrey) October 25, 2012

I will say though, given their track record, if there was a team could get Otani to stay, the Fighters are it

— Jason Coskrey (@JCoskrey) October 25, 2012

It’s the latter tweet that concerns me, as there’s a lot of time between now and April.

The big news out of Japan today is that the Nippon Ham Fighters have decided to select Shohei Otani with their first-round pick in tomorrow’s NPB Draft, according to Sanspo.

Ever since I tweeted out that information, I’ve been getting a bunch of questions, so I thought I should make a post dedicated to answering them as best I could.

Does the NPB Draft work like the MLB Draft?

No.

The first round of the NPB Draft is a lottery system, where every team submits who they want to take. If you’re the only team that selects a player, then you are awarded his rights. However, if multiple teams select the same player, then there’s a random draw for that player’s services. The system repeats until every team has a player.

So it would be like if all 30 MLB teams decided they wanted Bryce Harper in the first round, then the way it’s determined who gets him is based on the luck of the draw. Literally.

After the first round, it’s a standard snake-format draft.

Why is it surprising that the Nippon Ham Fighters want to draft him?

It’s surprising because he already announced his intention to go overseas. An unsigned pick wouldn’t be a gigantic deal in America due to our compensation system (Mark Appel/Pirates), but in Japan it is because if you don’t sign your pick then the pick is gone forever.

To make matters worse, Nippon Ham already lost their first-round pick from last year, Tomoyuki Sugano, as he refused to sign due to his desire to play under his uncle with the Yomiuri Giants.

Needless to say, Nippon Ham fans aren’t very happy about the risk associated with this, at least judging by a small sample of reactions I found on Twitter.

So why does this complicate things for the Dodgers, Red Sox, and Rangers, the three main teams he’s rumored to be considering?

Unless the MLB and the teams involved really want a mess on their hands, they will not be able to interfere with the exclusive rights granted to the NPB team that drafts Otani until the period of negotiation ends on March 31st. As such, he’ll miss spring ball for 2013 if he’s taken.

So hypothetically speaking, that drags the saga out but it’s just an inconvenience … right? Well, in my opinion, the real risk with him being drafted is that he could be tempted to stay in Japan given time to talk it through with the team that selects him. He is, after all, only a teenager, and there are a lot of reasons besides baseball to want to stay in Japan.

Social and cultural reasons aside, Sponichi makes the case that he would be guaranteed more money by staying in Japan. While the signing bonus from an NPB team would presumably fall short of any MLB offer by a million dollars or so, he could still get a 100 million yen ($1 million) bonus in Japan and he’ll immediately be under NPB contract. On the other hand, in the MLB system, after the bonus money, he would be subjected to the standard paltry pay of a minor-leaguer. Of course, this would be rendered moot by any MLB team willing to accept the penalties in place for exceeding the cap, but I’m not so sure teams would be willing to do so.

Overall, it’s just concerning because it’s easy to say you’re going to do something, but when the easy route is laid out in front of somebody (much less a teenager), with millions of dollars at stake, and a ton of pressure, nobody could blame him for simply taking what might be a record deal given to him by whoever drafts him.

Also of note is that he’ll be banned from the NPB for three years under the “Tazawa Rule” (named after Junichi Tazawa of the Red Sox) if he chooses to go overseas, but I doubt that comes into play.

Who is going to sign him?

I sort of addressed this already, but it’s basically down to the Dodgers, Rangers, and Red Sox, according to him. Others are interested but he’s focusing on those three.

The Japanese media believe the Dodgers are in front because they’ve been in contact with him the longest. While that does mean something, a ton can change, obviously.

How does the NPB feel about Shohei Otani jumping to the MLB?

As I explained in a previous post, this is a trailblazing path for Otani, and the NPB is concerned about the precedent he might set.

Articles from Nikkan Sports and Spoinichi show a range of reactions from teams that basically can be summarized to say that the NPB needs to look at revising the rules.

Most notably to me, via Daily Sports, the President of the Hanshin Tigers complains that while NPB scouts are restricted in terms of contact and meetings with players, international scouts are not, thus putting NPB teams at a disadvantage for their own players.

I want Cliffs Notes!

If he doesn’t get drafted, negotiations can start tomorrow.

If selected in the NPB Draft, he could be tempted to stay in Japan due to monetary, cultural, and family issues, and even if he does follow through on his overseas ambitions, negotiations with him wouldn’t be able to start until April 1st. As such, it doesn’t appear that this saga will be over for at least another 6-7 months or so.

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Since the Dodgers are in the running for his services and he’d definitely be a top prospect in the system if signed, I’ll keep everybody updated on his situation as best I can.

As you probably already know by now, bidding on Yu Darvish ended just recently after the star right-hander was posted by the Nippon Ham Fighters a few days ago. I mention this because earlier today on Twitter I made a few statements about Yu Darvish and Asian players that generated some interesting discussion and I wanted to clarify my point.

All this started after reading article after article that lazily compared Yu Darvish with Daisuke Matsuzaka and Kei Igawa. I simply questioned whether any other player was subject to these generalizations based on his nationality, ethnicity, and race or whether any other players are lumped in with other busts and generalized to say that they all possess similar qualities because of their personal backgrounds.

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Through the course of the discussion, certain people managed to transform my desire to not lazily lump all Asian players into the same pool as being equal to saying that people should not criticize Asian players, which simply isn’t the case.

It’s the way people are criticizing Asian players that has me cringing.

I recognize that there are a ton of question marks that go into signing players from the region, question marks that simply don’t apply to American players. However, there are question marks for just about every other player on the market as well, it’s just that those players are analyzed as individuals and by their potential value, whereas it seems to be almost a requirement to compare prospective Asian players with current or past Asian players as if they are all the same.

It’s probably nothing to other people, but it’s honestly just awkward for me to read.

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Jon Paul Morosi – Fox Sports – 12/12

Robert Whiting, an author and expert on Japanese baseball, said he believes the Rangers and Yankees will submit posting bids on Darvish. But Whiting added: “If he signs with Texas, playing in that small park will not help him … I am afraid if Darvish goes to a hitter’s park, his game may suffer. Chan Ho Park was an ace at Dodger Stadium, not so good in Texas.”

I respect Robert Whiting for the work he has done on Japanese baseball, and I have enjoyed the books he has written, but this is just absurd.

What does Chan Ho Park having success with the Dodgers but not the Rangers have anything to do with Darvish? They are completely different and unrelated circumstances. The only thing relating them at all is the fact that they are both Asian, which is the only reason Park is even mentioned.

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The park effects factor will have an affect how Darvish performs, but it will do so like it would for any other pitcher. That’s why we have statistics that normalize for things like league, park, and competition.

Relevant analysis would revolve around how Darvish’s stuff fits in different parks. What is his fly ball percentage? How many bats does he miss? Will the switch lead to a change in distribution? Which parks do those skills fit in?

But no, none of that is addressed in any article on Darvish that I see in the mainstream media, it’s all simply glossed over in favor of lazily throwing together anecdotal connection after anecdotal connection between pitchers who both happen to be Asian.

How is this acceptable? Ugh.

Tom Verducci – Sports Illustrated – 11/15

Said Rangers assistant GM Thad Levine, “The anecdotal assessment suggests starting pitchers have a two-year window of success followed by a rapid decline, followed thereafter by disappearance. Even a lot of the relievers have had success quickly, reaching a hot peak followed by a rapid decline.”

“Anecdotal”

Says it all.

When the Yankees signed Kei Igawa after the 2006 season, for instance, they relied on very few first-hand evaluations. Now the Yankees invest more time and resources in making sure they get multiple looks at NPB players.

Exactly. The Yankees didn’t do their due diligence on Igawa because they made a reactionary bid in response to losing out on Matsuzaka and since Darvish is Asian like they are, that’s Darvish’s fault.

Wait, what?

David Waldstein – The New York Times – 12/13

After the uneven results of Matsuzaka, Igawa and others, the bidding for Darvish is expected to be more restrained, perhaps $30 million to $50 million, and recently some people in baseball have projected that figure below $30 million.

Yes, we get it.

See above.

Jeff Passan – Yahoo! Sports – 12/8

Oh, and there’s the whole matter of pitching, the one question that will take years to answer. While the sample size remains tiny, the Japanese ace in the major leagues has had a short window of success. Hideo Nomo: two years. Matsuzaka: two years. Perhaps Hiroki Kuroda is breaking that trend, what with four consecutive solid seasons, but the skepticism remains.

See: Verducci, Tom

Tom Verducci – Sports Illustrated – 11/15

“You have some great examples of players who came here and starred,” said Dodgers GM Ned Colletti, “and some who came here and were average at best and some who were below average. Like it is with any prospect, it’s always something you have to look at on a case-by-case basis. One thing we do know is that the grind of our schedule is different, therefore there are different dynamics for a position player and for a pitcher.”

“Looking at players on a case-by-case basis and treating each Asian player that comes over as an individual? No, no, no, that just won’t do. It doesn’t fit my narrative.”

You know your argument is completely fucked when Ned Colletti is the voice of reason, right?

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Perhaps the saddest part is that the sample above is just taken from the top results on Google and what I found on MLB Trade Rumors. Basically, stuff like this is in almost every article about Darvish, so it wasn’t hard to find these examples at all.

So what’s the point?

The point is that there should absolutely be questions asked about Yu Darvish, but those questions should be asked about Yu Darvish the pitcher, not about Yu Darvish the Japanese pitcher or Yu Darvish the Asian pitcher, and certainly not about how Daisuke Matsuzaka and Kei Igawa relate to him.

Intellectually lazy leaps in logic always bother me, but I felt the need to point this out because it seems nobody ever has a problem when people do it in regards to Asian players (like this). Let’s be honest, similar comparisons would never be made so overtly and so shamelessly if we were talking about Black or Latino players because people would lose their jobs over it.

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Originally, I was planning on writing an article about how Japanese players who come over through the posting system are generally overvalued because it’s akin to getting a prospect except they aren’t team controlled. Of course, the difference between my planned analysis and what is currently happening on the journalism landscape is that I would have actually done my homework and looked at each case as individual results instead of lumping them all into one category and making wide ranging generalizations.

By far the most common comparison is between Yu Darvish and Daisuke Matsuzaka, which is appropriate for the point I’m trying to make because even a cursory comparison of the two would reveal totally different pitchers, personalities, and backgrounds.

Ample reason to see them and analyze them as individuals.

But hey, why do research when you can just be lazy, right?