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	<title>Chad Moriyama &#187; Nick Punto</title>
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	<description>Dodgers, Sabermetrics, Scouting</description>
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		<title>Injury Roll Call: Kemp looking at DL minimum, Hanley few games away, Beckett&#8217;s future in doubt</title>
		<link>http://www.chadmoriyama.com/2013/06/injury-roll-call-kemp-looking-at-dl-minimum-hanley-few-games-away-becketts-future-in-doubt/</link>
		<comments>http://www.chadmoriyama.com/2013/06/injury-roll-call-kemp-looking-at-dl-minimum-hanley-few-games-away-becketts-future-in-doubt/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sat, 01 Jun 2013 16:02:53 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Greg Zakwin</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Features]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Injury Roll Call]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[A.J. Ellis]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Hanley Ramirez]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Hyun Jin Ryu]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Jerry Hairston Jr.]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Josh Beckett]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Los Angeles Dodgers]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Matt Kemp]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Nick Punto]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Scott Elbert]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Stephen Fife]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.chadmoriyama.com/?p=15786</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[It&#8217;s been a tough week for Matt Kemp, injury-wise. First, he was hit on the right elbow by a pitch and had to be removed later in that game due to numbness. For the second time in four days, Matt Kemp was replaced by Skip Schumaker in center field during the game. But on Tuesday ...]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><img class="aligncenter size-large wp-image-7115" alt="MattKempHamstring" src="http://www.chadmoriyama.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/06/MattKempHamstring-575x423.jpg" width="575" height="423" /></p>
<p>It&#8217;s been a tough week for <strong>Matt Kemp</strong>, injury-wise. First, he was <a href="http://www.truebluela.com/2013/5/28/4375188/matt-kemp-elbow-hit-by-pitch-dodgers-angels" target="_blank">hit on the right elbow</a> by a pitch and had to be removed later in that game due to numbness.</p>
<blockquote><p>For the second time in four days, Matt Kemp was replaced by Skip Schumaker in center field during the game. But on Tuesday against the Angels, the ninth inning move happened because Kemp felt numbness after he was hit by a pitch on his right elbow in the second inning.</p>
<p>&#8220;He came to me in like the seventh. He got hit on the elbow. Something was going on with his fingers, and he didn&#8217;t feel like he could throw,&#8221; manager Don Mattingly said. &#8220;He basically said, &#8216;I don&#8217;t want to screw this up. I can&#8217;t really throw the ball, but I feel good swinging.&#8217;&#8221;</p>
<p>Both Mattingly and Kemp downplayed the injury. Mattingly said he expects Kemp to play on Wednesday and didn&#8217;t expect Kemp to need an MRI, saying, &#8220;I hope it&#8217;s nothing that gets to that.&#8221;</p></blockquote>
<p>Kemp reported that he <a href="https://twitter.com/jphoornstra/status/339601251392163840" target="_blank">couldn&#8217;t grip the ball</a> and throw it, which is quite scary.</p>
<p>He did return later in the week, only to <a href="https://twitter.com/truebluela/status/339971374464507904" target="_blank">suffer a mild strain</a> of his hamstring and leave that game early. It was <a href="https://twitter.com/dylanohernandez/status/339971920105709568" target="_blank">the opposite hamstring</a> that he injured last season, and Kemp <a href="https://twitter.com/DodgersPR/status/339972981788913664" target="_blank">underwent an MRI</a> on Thursday.</p>
<p>Following the MRI, the Dodgers did the smart thing and decided to play it safe by <a href="http://www.truebluela.com/2013/5/30/4381274/matt-kemp-injury-disabled-list-tim-federowicz" target="_blank">placing Kemp on the 15-day DL</a>.</p>
<p>Fortunately though, it does seem like <a href="http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20130531&amp;content_id=49202196&amp;notebook_id=49213378&amp;vkey=notebook_la&amp;c_id=la" target="_blank">he&#8217;s looking at the minimum time</a>.</p>
<blockquote><p>&#8220;We feel he&#8217;s going to be ready in close to two weeks,&#8221; Mattingly said of Kemp, who missed two months last year with a hamstring strain on his other leg.</p></blockquote>
<p>Unlike what some are saying, I doubt playing a week or so of rehab games is going to <a href="http://www.chadmoriyama.com/2013/05/dodgers-begin-to-peel-back-the-curtain-on-matt-kemps-struggles-with-shoulder-and-swing/" target="_blank">fix his mechanics</a>, but he does get a mental break.</p>
<p>&#8212;&#8211;</p>
<p><strong>Hanley Ramirez</strong>&#8216;s rehab assignment <a href="http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20130529&amp;content_id=48974980&amp;vkey=news_mlb&amp;c_id=mlb" target="_blank">was pushed back to Friday</a>, as he looks to return from a hamstring injury.</p>
<blockquote><p>Ramirez, on the disabled list due to a strained left hamstring, will join the Quakes on Friday for the second game of a four-game series at Bakersfield.</p>
<p>Ramirez hoped to begin his rehab on Thursday, but the Dodgers pushed it back to Friday following his workout at Angel Stadium on Wednesday, though the club said he did not suffer a setback.</p>
<p>Ramirez tweeted: &#8220;All is well, but I&#8217;ll be in Bakersfield on Friday. We decided to push it back one more day #dodgerblue #cantwait.&#8221;</p>
<p>Dodgers manager Don Mattingly said Ramirez needs to play around four rehab games, which would put him on track to be activated during a three-game series against the Padres at Dodger Stadium that begins on Monday.</p>
<p>&#8220;I&#8217;ve got to test [the hamstring] out and see how it feels,&#8221; Ramirez said Wednesday before the Dodgers&#8217; game against the Angels.</p></blockquote>
<p>He played in the game, <a href="http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20130601&amp;content_id=49273370&amp;vkey=news_la&amp;c_id=la" target="_blank">seemingly without issue</a>, but he wants to see how he recovers the day after.</p>
<blockquote><p>&#8220;I&#8217;m tired but I feel good,&#8221; Ramirez said. &#8220;There wasn&#8217;t any pain or nothing like that. I couldn&#8217;t get on base but let&#8217;s see tomorrow.&#8221;</p></blockquote>
<p>Besides the injury, I wonder if all this time off will affect his performance at the plate any. It&#8217;s been months since he&#8217;s gotten regular at-bats against quality pitching.</p>
<p>&#8212;&#8211;</p>
<p><strong>Josh Beckett</strong> is <a href="http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20130530&amp;content_id=49117776&amp;notebook_id=49148536&amp;vkey=notebook_la&amp;c_id=la" target="_blank">scheduled to see a nerve specialist</a> on Monday.</p>
<blockquote><p>Injured Dodgers pitcher Josh Beckett will see a nerve specialist on Monday, the next step in determining the cause of the numbing sensation in his fingers.</p>
<p>Beckett is scheduled to visit Dr. Gregory Pearl in Dallas, Texas, the same surgeon who operated on Cardinals pitcher Chris Carpenter&#8217;s right shoulder last season.</p>
<p>Beckett, on the disabled list with a left groin strain, had his throwing program shut down last week after the numbness in his fingers continued during a bullpen session.</p>
<p>&#8220;The frustrating thing that I&#8217;m having right now is I don&#8217;t have pain, I just have ineffectiveness and numbness where I can&#8217;t actually feel the baseball,&#8221; Beckett said on Thursday.</p>
<p>Beckett is 0-5 with a 5.19 ERA in eight starts this season. He said he continued to pitch despite the lingering issue because the Dodgers were short on starters earlier in the season after losing Chad Billingsley for the year and dealing with Zack Greinke&#8217;s broken left collarbone.</p>
<p>&#8220;It&#8217;s something I&#8217;ve been dealing with,&#8221; Beckett said of the numbness in his right fingers. &#8220;I&#8217;m not sure exactly when it came on. It wasn&#8217;t painful. At the time we were losing starters left and right, so I felt like I needed to pitch because I didn&#8217;t have any pain.&#8221;</p></blockquote>
<p>Once again, pitching or playing hurt to help the team is admirable in theory, but costly in reality on so many levels.</p>
<p>Beckett <a href="http://sports.yahoo.com/blogs/mlb-big-league-stew/josh-beckett-retirement-possible-because-numbness-fingers-163222403.html" target="_blank">fears he may have to retire</a> due to the continued numbness in his fingers.</p>
<blockquote><p>&#8220;Any time something like that happens to your arm or you start losing feeling and stuff . . . you think about [retirement] for sure,&#8221; Beckett, who is on the disabled list after four to five weeks of numbness in the fingers on his right hand, told the Times. &#8220;I don&#8217;t really want to think like that right now. I want to think about figuring out a way to deal with this.&#8221;</p></blockquote>
<p>Scary, scary stuff.</p>
<p>Would be a rather sad ending to his career, but I hope he was just in the moment.</p>
<p>&#8212;&#8211;</p>
<p><strong>A.J. Ellis</strong>, following <a href="http://www.chadmoriyama.com/2013/05/injury-roll-call-hanley-still-weeks-away-kemp-cleared-for-increased-lifting-elbert-close/" target="_blank">a tough week of his own</a>, is now <a href="http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20130530&amp;content_id=49117776&amp;notebook_id=49133384&amp;vkey=notebook_la&amp;c_id=la" target="_blank">dealing with an oblique injury</a>.</p>
<blockquote><p>Dodgers catcher A.J. Ellis is dealing with an issue in his left oblique, manager Don Mattingly said on Thursday.</p>
<p>Ellis was held out of the lineup for Thursday&#8217;s Freeway Series finale against the Angels.</p>
<p>&#8220;We feel like it&#8217;s a day or two days,&#8221; Mattingly said on Thursday afternoon. &#8220;We&#8217;ll see how that goes.&#8221;</p>
<p>Could Ellis require a stint on the disabled list?</p>
<p>&#8220;If this thing would go the wrong direction, it would be [a DL situation],&#8221; Mattingly said.</p></blockquote>
<p>Oblique issues are always worrisome because they&#8217;re unpredictable and generally take time to heal. A.J. being okay is more important than it should be, as his backups are <strong>Ramon Hernandez</strong> and <strong>Tim Federowicz</strong>.</p>
<p>&#8212;&#8211;</p>
<p><strong>Hyun Jin Ryu</strong> <a href="http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20130529&amp;content_id=48990822&amp;notebook_id=48999716&amp;vkey=notebook_la&amp;c_id=la" target="_blank">had x-rays on his left foot</a>, which came back negative.</p>
<blockquote><p>The Dodgers expect left-hander Hyun-Jin Ryu to make his scheduled start on Sunday after taking a line drive off the top of his left foot during his shutout of the Angels on Tuesday.</p>
<p>X-rays on Ryu&#8217;s left foot were negative. He had his foot in a bucket of ice Wednesday afternoon in the visiting clubhouse at Angel Stadium.</p>
<p>&#8220;Obviously he&#8217;s a little bit sore,&#8221; manager Don Mattingly said before Wednesday&#8217;s game against the Angels. &#8220;I think he&#8217;s going to be fine. We expect him to be ready by his next start [on Sunday in Colorado].&#8221;</p></blockquote>
<p>It&#8217;s honestly getting to the point now where anytime there&#8217;s any type of physical collision, we expect the 60-day DL.</p>
<p>&#8212;&#8211;</p>
<p><strong>Nick Punto</strong> <a href="http://www.truebluela.com/2013/5/27/4371856/nick-punto-injury-dodgers-bone-bruise-back" target="_blank">suffered a bone bruise in his back</a> after falling awkwardly near second base on a play in the field.</p>
<blockquote><p>It seems fitting that in a year when the Dodgers have suffered so many injuries, two innings after they optioned Dee Gordon to Triple-A Albuquerque their depth at shortstop became immediately tested. Nick Punto collided with a sliding Erick Aybar for the final out of the second inning in the Dodgers&#8217; 8-7 win over the Angels on Monday, and landed squarely on his back.</p>
<p>Punto suffered a bone bruise in his back, though it&#8217;s not something he considers serious.</p>
<p>&#8220;As the game was going on it felt alright. As long I kemp moving, it felt okay. We&#8217;ll just see how it feels,&#8221; Punto said. &#8220;I&#8217;m sure it&#8217;s just a bruise, but we&#8217;ll see.&#8221;</p>
<p>Punto remained in the game until after the fifth inning, when he was double-switched out of the game.</p>
<p>&#8220;It was just getting stiffer and stiffer as the game went on,&#8221; manager Don Mattingly said of Punto&#8217;s back.</p></blockquote>
<p>He&#8217;s actually been solid filling in this season, so any long-term issue here would hurt the club, although he&#8217;s not going to keep hitting at the level he has thus far, unless you expect a .402 BABIP to stick with him.</p>
<p>&#8212;&#8211;</p>
<p><strong>Jerry Hairston Jr.</strong> <a href="http://www.truebluela.com/2013/5/27/4370930/jerry-hairston-activated-dee-gordon-optioned/in/4134307" target="_blank">was activated from the DL</a>, while <strong>Scott Elbert</strong> <a href="https://twitter.com/Dodgers/status/340574250589106178" target="_blank">was retroactively moved</a> to the 60-day DL as he continues to rehab and work his way back.</p>
<p>&#8212;&#8211;</p>
<p><strong>Stephen Fife</strong> threw a simulated game and is scheduled to throw another as <a href="http://www.truebluela.com/2013/5/27/4371054/josh-beckett-injury-dodgers-numb-fingers-mri" target="_blank">he works his way back</a> from right shoulder bursitis.</p>
<blockquote><p>Stephen Fife has had a slow recovery from right shoulder bursitis, but was able to throw one simulated game already. Mattingly said Fife will throw another simulated game of approximately 70 pitches at some point this week. Fife last pitched for the Dodgers on Apr. 21.</p></blockquote>
<p>Should be interesting to see whether it&#8217;s him or <strong>Matt Magill</strong> that gets the first call should a pitcher go down. Either way, better to have both than one or the other.</p>
<p>=====</p>
<p><em><strong>Greg Zakwin</strong> is the founder of the site <a href="http://plaschkethysweaterisargyle.blogspot.com/" target="_blank"><strong>Plaschke Thy Sweater Is Argyle</strong></a>. Follow him on Twitter <a href="http://www.twitter.com/ArgyledPlaschke" target="_blank"><strong>@ArgyledPlaschke</strong></a>.</em></p>
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		<title>Injury Roll Call: Hanley surgery, out 2 months, Uribe says hi + Greinke &amp; Billingsley pain-free</title>
		<link>http://www.chadmoriyama.com/2013/03/injury-roll-call-hanley-needs-surgery-out-2-months-uribe-says-hi-greinke-billingsley-pain-free/</link>
		<comments>http://www.chadmoriyama.com/2013/03/injury-roll-call-hanley-needs-surgery-out-2-months-uribe-says-hi-greinke-billingsley-pain-free/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 21 Mar 2013 16:18:59 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Greg Zakwin</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Features]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Injury Roll Call]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Chad Billingsley]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Dee Gordon]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Hanley Ramirez]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Juan Uribe]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Los Angeles Dodgers]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Luis Cruz]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Nick Punto]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Skip Schumaker]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Spring Training]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Zack Greinke]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.chadmoriyama.com/?p=14486</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Hanley Ramirez needs surgery on his injured right thumb. Sources: Hanley needs surgery on his right thumb. #Dodgers. — Ken Rosenthal (@Ken_Rosenthal) March 21, 2013 Lame. The timetable for Hanley is eight weeks following the surgery, meaning at-best we&#8217;re probably looking at mid-May for Hanley&#8217;s 2013 debut. Well &#8230; say hello to a starting left ...]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><img src="http://www.chadmoriyama.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/10/HanleyRamirezISeeYou-575x383.jpg" alt="HanleyRamirezISeeYou" width="575" height="383" class="aligncenter size-large wp-image-12257" /></p>
<p><strong>Hanley Ramirez</strong> needs surgery on his injured right thumb.</p>
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p>Sources: Hanley needs surgery on his right thumb. <a href="https://twitter.com/search/%23Dodgers">#Dodgers</a>.</p>
<p>— Ken Rosenthal (@Ken_Rosenthal) <a href="https://twitter.com/Ken_Rosenthal/status/314766049079881728">March 21, 2013</a></p></blockquote>
<p>Lame.</p>
<p>The timetable for Hanley is <a href="https://twitter.com/truebluela/status/314769507161870337" target="_blank">eight weeks following the surgery</a>, meaning at-best we&#8217;re probably looking at mid-May for Hanley&#8217;s 2013 debut.</p>
<p>Well &#8230; say hello to a starting left side of the infield featuring <strong>Luis Cruz</strong> and some combination of <strong>Juan Uribe</strong>, <strong>Dee Gordon</strong>, <strong>Nick Punto</strong>, or <strong>Skip Schumaker</strong>.</p>
<p>Honestly, if those are the only options, I&#8217;m going with Uribe &#8211; and I can&#8217;t believe I&#8217;m typing that &#8211; as he&#8217;s at least <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=454&amp;position=SS#fieldingadvanced" target="_blank">excellent with the glove</a>.</p>
<p>&#8212;&#8211;</p>
<p><strong>Zack Greinke</strong> took to the mound Wednesday and reported no pain in his elbow <a href="https://twitter.com/Dodgers/status/314481661951746050" target="_blank">following a four-inning, 43-pitch outing</a>.</p>
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p>&#8220;Elbow wasn&#8217;t an issue today. I wasn&#8217;t worried about it. My arm felt really good and strong but the pitches aren&#8217;t 100% crisp yet.&#8221; -Greinke</p>
<p>— Los Angeles Dodgers (@Dodgers) <a href="https://twitter.com/Dodgers/status/314483842700410881">March 20, 2013</a></p></blockquote>
<p>And here are <a href="http://www.truebluela.com/2013/3/20/4129330/yasiel-puig-zack-greinke-dodgers-spring-training-2013" target="_blank">further details on the outing</a>, including the possibility that he could avoid the DL.</p>
<blockquote><p>Greinke threw 43 pitches in four scoreless innings, and Mattingly got good reports. He said Greinke was able to use all of his pitches and was sitting around 91-93 mph.</p>
<p>Greinke will next start Monday, and though there is a possibility that the Dodgers may have him throw in a minor league game in order to have the option to back date him on the disabled list, Mattingly hinted that might not be needed.</p>
<p>&#8220;We&#8217;ll keep playing all the scenarios as we go. The health theory is that we&#8217;d like to see him on the front fields. I think he wants to be on the front fields, too,&#8221; Mattingly said. &#8220;At this point if something flares up it&#8217;s probably more than a start anyway, so the DL is not going to matter.&#8221;</p></blockquote>
<p>So he&#8217;s either going to be ready for the season from the start or head to the DL and miss multiple starts, depending on how the rest of <strong>Spring Training</strong> goes for him.</p>
<p>The <strong>Dodgers</strong> will need Greinke at 100% for as much of the season as possible, so caution would be the way to go here.</p>
<p>&#8212;&#8211;</p>
<p><strong>Chad Billingsley</strong> threw a bullpen session Wednesday &#8211; minus his curve &#8211; and <a href="http://www.truebluela.com/2013/3/20/4128474/aaron-harang-joe-nuxhall" target="_blank">reported feeling no pain</a> in his <a href="http://www.chadmoriyama.com/2013/03/injury-roll-call-hanley-out-weeks-set-for-mri-greinke-ready-bills-hurts-everything-but-elbow/" target="_blank">elbow, groin, and finger</a>.</p>
<p>=====</p>
<p><em><strong>Greg Zakwin</strong> is the founder of the site <a href="http://plaschkethysweaterisargyle.blogspot.com/" target="_blank"><strong>Plaschke Thy Sweater Is Argyle</strong></a>. Follow him on Twitter <a href="http://www.twitter.com/ArgyledPlaschke" target="_blank"><strong>@ArgyledPlaschke</strong></a>.</em></p>
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		<slash:comments>4</slash:comments>
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		<title>Three Dodgers &#8212; Paco, Amezaga, Moylan &#8212; withdraw from WBC to focus on winning jobs</title>
		<link>http://www.chadmoriyama.com/2013/02/three-dodgers-paco-amezaga-moylan-withdraw-from-wbc-to-focus-on-winning-jobs/</link>
		<comments>http://www.chadmoriyama.com/2013/02/three-dodgers-paco-amezaga-moylan-withdraw-from-wbc-to-focus-on-winning-jobs/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 22 Feb 2013 00:04:15 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Chad Moriyama</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Daily News]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[SOSEFD]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Adrian Gonzalez]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Alfredo Amezaga]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Elian Herrera]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Hanley Ramirez]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[J.P. Howell]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Jamey Wright]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Jeremy Moore]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Los Angeles Dodgers]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Luis Cruz]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Nick Punto]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Opening Day]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Paco Rodriguez]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Peter Moylan]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Ronald Belisario]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Scott Elbert]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Spring Training]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Tony Gwynn Jr.]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[World Baseball Classic]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.chadmoriyama.com/?p=14014</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Paco Rodriguez, Alfredo Amezaga, and Peter Moylan, three Dodgers with shots at making the Opening Day roster, have withdrawn from the World Baseball Classic to focus on making the club. With Scott Elbert rehabbing, Paco in particular is competing for the spot of left-handed reliever, though J.P. Howell would appear to be the front-runner there. ...]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><img src="http://www.chadmoriyama.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/11/PacoRodriguez-575x402.jpg" alt="PacoRodriguez" width="575" height="402" class="aligncenter size-large wp-image-12466" /></p>
<p><strong>Paco Rodriguez</strong>, <strong>Alfredo Amezaga</strong>, and <strong>Peter Moylan</strong>, three Dodgers with shots at making the <strong>Opening Day</strong> roster, have <a href="http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20130221&#038;content_id=41845538&#038;notebook_id=41862254" target="_blank">withdrawn</a> from the <strong>World Baseball Classic</strong> to focus on making the club.</p>
<p>With <strong>Scott Elbert</strong> rehabbing, Paco in particular is competing for the spot of left-handed reliever, though <strong>J.P. Howell</strong> would appear to be the front-runner there. Moylan is in the running for the bullpen as well, no matter how deep it is, simply due to the fact that he&#8217;s a veteran (see: <strong>Jamey Wright</strong>). Amezaga would appear to be a long-shot to make the outfield reserves on a team with such a high payroll, but the Dodgers don&#8217;t actually have a lot of options there, especially those who can play center field. Barring a trade, it basically boils down to him, <strong>Tony Gwynn Jr.</strong>, <strong>Elian Herrera</strong>, and <strong>Jeremy Moore</strong>. In other words, hopefully there&#8217;s a trade.</p>
<p>Paco was slated to compete for Spain, Amezaga for Mexico, and Moylan for Australia, but at the risk of missing most of <strong>Spring Training</strong>, all three Dodgers on the roster bubble decided against participating. That leaves five Dodgers who are still in the WBC in <strong>Hanley Ramirez</strong> (Dominican Republic), <strong>Adrian Gonzalez</strong> (Mexico), <strong>Luis Cruz</strong> (Mexico), <strong>Nick Punto</strong> (Italy), and <strong>Ronald Belisario</strong> (Venezuela), none of whom figure to be in danger of losing spots.</p>
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		<title>Josh Beckett hopefully not fat: Dodgers Spring Training dates, daily schedules, home/away caps</title>
		<link>http://www.chadmoriyama.com/2013/02/josh-beckett-hopefully-not-fat-dodgers-spring-training-dates-daily-schedule-homeaway-caps/</link>
		<comments>http://www.chadmoriyama.com/2013/02/josh-beckett-hopefully-not-fat-dodgers-spring-training-dates-daily-schedule-homeaway-caps/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 12 Feb 2013 13:40:00 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Chad Moriyama</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Daily News]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[SOSEFD]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Aaron Harang]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Adrian Gonzalez]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Anaheim Angels]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Camelback Ranch]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Chicago White Sox]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Hanley Ramirez]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Josh Beckett]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Los Angeles Dodgers]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Luis Cruz]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Nick Punto]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Opening Day]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Paco Rodriguez]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Ronald Belisario]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[San Francisco Giants]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Spring Training]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[WBC]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[World Baseball Classic]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.chadmoriyama.com/?p=13912</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[The Dodgers pitchers and catchers report to Camelback Ranch today, on Feb. 12, which officially kicks off the baseball season for the team, and tomorrow, on Feb. 13, they&#8217;ll have their first workout, in which I like to imagine Aaron Harang lumbering through conditioning drills like a monkey. The rest of the team will report ...]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><img src="http://www.chadmoriyama.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/02/CamelbackRanch-575x382.jpg" alt="CamelbackRanch" width="575" height="382" class="aligncenter size-large wp-image-13923" /></p>
<p>The <strong>Dodgers</strong> pitchers and catchers report to <strong>Camelback Ranch</strong> today, on Feb. 12, which officially kicks off the baseball season for the team, and tomorrow, on Feb. 13, they&#8217;ll have their first workout, in which I like to imagine <strong>Aaron Harang</strong> lumbering through conditioning drills like a monkey.</p>
<p>The rest of the team will report to camp on Feb. 15, and <strong>Spring Training</strong> will be in full swing the following day, on Feb. 16, as they get their first team workout in, which hopefully includes <strong>Josh Beckett</strong> running around a lot, so he doesn&#8217;t look like this:</p>
<p><img src="http://www.chadmoriyama.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/02/JoshBeckettFat-575x365.jpg" alt="JoshBeckettFat" width="575" height="365" class="aligncenter size-large wp-image-13930" /></p>
<p>The team&#8217;s first Spring Training game will <a href="http://losangeles.dodgers.mlb.com/schedule/index.jsp?c_id=la#y=2013&#038;m=2" target="_blank">take place</a> a week after the whole team reports, on Feb. 23 against the <strong>White Sox</strong>, who they share the facility with. On March 5, the minor-league portion of pitchers and catchers report, while everybody else comes in on March 11.</p>
<p>The last game of Spring Training will come on March 29 against the <strong>Angels</strong> (ANAHEIM!), with <strong>Opening Day</strong> following shortly at home against the rival <strong>Giants</strong> on April 1. I&#8217;m eternally glad that the Dodgers open with them at home, because I would puke all over myself if I was forced to watch the <strong>Giants</strong> having a celebration or something.</p>
<p>&#8212;&#8211;</p>
<p>The daily schedule on game days, via Dodgers press release:</p>
<blockquote><p>Afternoon Games (1:05 p.m. starts):</p>
<p>Dodger BP: Until 11:15 a.m.<br />
Visitor BP: 11:15 a.m.-12:15 p.m.<br />
Visitor Infield: 12:20 p.m.-12:30 p.m.<br />
Dodger Infield: 12:30 p.m.-12:40 p.m.</p>
<p>Night Games (7:05 p.m. starts):</p>
<p>Dodger BP: Until 5:15 p.m.<br />
Visitor BP: 5:15 p.m.-6:15 p.m.<br />
Visitor Infield: 6:20 p.m.-6:30 p.m.<br />
Dodger Infield: 6:30 p.m.-6:40 p.m.</p></blockquote>
<p>That&#8217;s not all that&#8217;s going on during this spring though, as on March 1 the <strong>World Baseball Classic</strong> <a href="http://mlb.mlb.com/wbc/2013/schedule_and_tickets/" target="_blank">will start</a> with <strong>Australia</strong> playing <strong>Taiwan</strong>. The tournament is primarily relevant to Dodger fans because of players like <strong>Adrian Gonzalez</strong> (<strong>Mexico</strong>), <strong>Luis Cruz</strong> (Mexico), <strong>Hanley Ramirez</strong> (<strong>Dominican Republic</strong>), <strong>Ronald Belisario</strong> (<strong>Venezuela</strong>), <strong>Nick Punto</strong> (<strong>Italy</strong>), and <strong>Paco Rodriguez</strong> (<strong>Spain</strong>).</p>
<p>Not sure it affects Punto or A-Gon much, and it&#8217;s a miracle that Belisario is even in America at this time, but I doubt Cruz or Paco will benefit from not being in camp for their first Spring Training ever with real expectations, plus Hanley not ever playing shortstop the spring after playing horrible shortstop in 2012 is bad news (as has been said over and over).</p>
<p>&#8212;&#8211;</p>
<p>Additionally, <a href="http://www.vinscullyismyhomeboy.com/2013/02/dodgers-home-and-road-spring-training.html" target="_blank">via</a> <strong>Roberto Baly</strong> of <strong>Vin Scully Is My Homeboy</strong>, here are the Dodgers home and away Spring Training caps.</p>
<p><img src="http://www.chadmoriyama.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/02/DodgersSpringTrainingHome-575x575.jpg" alt="DodgersSpringTrainingHome" width="575" height="575" class="aligncenter size-large wp-image-13921" /></p>
<p><img src="http://www.chadmoriyama.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/02/DodgersSpringTrainingRoad-575x575.jpg" alt="DodgersSpringTrainingRoad" width="575" height="575" class="aligncenter size-large wp-image-13922" /></p>
<p>Loving the home caps.</p>
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		<title>ZiPS projects the 2013 Dodgers: Good but not great</title>
		<link>http://www.chadmoriyama.com/2013/02/zips-projects-the-2013-dodgers-good-but-not-great/</link>
		<comments>http://www.chadmoriyama.com/2013/02/zips-projects-the-2013-dodgers-good-but-not-great/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 05 Feb 2013 14:30:18 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Chad Moriyama</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Analysis]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Opinions]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[A.J. Ellis]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Aaron Harang]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Adrian Gonzalez]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Alex Castellanos]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Alfredo Amezaga]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Andre Ethier]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Arizona Diamondbacks]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Baseball Prospectus]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Brandon League]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Carl Crawford]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Chad Billingsley]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Chris Capuano]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Chris Reed]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Clayton Kershaw]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Coors Field]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Dan Szymborski]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Dee Gordon]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Elian Herrera]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Felix Hernandez]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Frank McCourt]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Garrett Gould]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Hanley Ramirez]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Hyun Jin Ryu]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[J.P. Howell]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Javy Guerra]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Jerry Hairston Jr.]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Joc Pederson]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Josh Beckett]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Juan Uribe]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Kenley Jansen]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Los Angeles Dodgers]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Luis Cruz]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Mark Ellis]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Matt Guerrier]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Matt Kemp]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Matt Magill]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Ned Colletti]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Nick Punto]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Paco Rodriguez]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Ronald Belisario]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[San Francisco Giants]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Scott Elbert]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Scott Van Slyke]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Shawn Tolleson]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Skip Schumaker]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[St. Louis Cardinals]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Stephen Fife]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Steven Ames]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Ted Lilly]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Tim Federowicz]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Tony Gwynn Jr.]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Zach Lee]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Zack Greinke]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[ZiPS]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.chadmoriyama.com/?p=13811</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[The 2013 projection for the Dodgers from Dan Szymborski&#8216;s ZiPS system was released last week, and given that it&#8217;s probably my favorite forecasting tool, it&#8217;s worth a look to see how the team fared. Forecasting is not a complete science, obviously, and I&#8217;ll address some of the potential pitfalls as we go along, but it&#8217;s ...]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><img src="http://www.chadmoriyama.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/10/MattKempInjured-575x383.jpg" alt="MattKempInjured" width="575" height="383" class="aligncenter size-large wp-image-11732" /></p>
<p>The 2013 projection for the <strong>Dodgers</strong> from <strong>Dan Szymborski</strong>&#8216;s <strong>ZiPS</strong> system was <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/2013-zips-projections-los-angeles-dodgers/" target="_blank">released last week</a>, and given that it&#8217;s probably my favorite forecasting tool, it&#8217;s worth a look to see how the team fared.</p>
<p>Forecasting is not a complete science, obviously, and I&#8217;ll address some of the potential pitfalls as we go along, but it&#8217;s better to use objective tools like these than the hopes/dreams of fans or the bitterness/wishes of haters.</p>
<p>To start us off, how does the team fare, generally speaking? A solid playoff contender, for sure, but a super team? Doesn&#8217;t seem likely.</p>
<p>&#8212;&#8211;</p>
<p><u><strong>The Field Players</strong></u></p>
<p>Despite all the hype over the recent acquisitions, the key cogs in this machine are still <strong>Clayton Kershaw</strong> and <strong>Matt Kemp</strong>. It&#8217;s a promising sign then, that Kemp projects at a 144 OPS+ and the system has confidence in him continuing to put up offensive numbers in the ~.900 OPS range. His defense in center still lags below average, but his bat more than makes up for it. His playing time projection has dropped due to his injury woes last season, and quite frankly, it&#8217;s hard to fault it for that. Regardless, he still figures to be the most valuable field player on the team.</p>
<p><strong>Adrian Gonzalez</strong> is slated to be another bright spot, as ZiPS pegs him to bounceback a bit, though not as much as some want, clocking in at an ~.830 OPS/128 OPS+. That would still be his lowest OPS+ since 2008 (besides 2012, of course), but it&#8217;s a marked improvement considering his age and negatively trending skills. A-Gon compensates for that lagging bat a bit by putting up plus defense almost worth a win by itself. <strong>Hanley Ramirez</strong> factors in as yet another bounceback candidate, projecting at a 115 OPS+, which is an upgrade over last year&#8217;s 106 and is closer to his pre-2011 production. Defensively, even his horribad -8 run defensive rating is optimistic to me, as he was truly terrible with the glove last year. Given that I already wanted to barf seeing him trying to turn a double play in 2012, I wouldn&#8217;t be surprised at all to see him put up horrid defensive numbers after basically not playing the position all of spring.</p>
<p>Unfortunately, that&#8217;s where a lot of the offensive optimism ends. <strong>Luis Cruz</strong> checks in at 84 OPS+ (106 last year), which will anger many fans, but is completely reasonable given the track record. He remains valuable through plus defense, though given the sample size, there&#8217;s reason to be skeptical there as well. <strong>A.J. Ellis</strong> at 96 OPS+ (118) is another depressing but completely logical projection, as evidenced by everybody&#8217;s surprise in 2012 at his potent bat. <strong>Andre Ethier</strong> at 112 OPS+ (123) is hard to figure for me, because he has been consistently putting up ~120 OPS+ seasons even if it has come down from the ~130 OPS+ range two years ago. I suppose the projection system thinks he&#8217;ll get old in a hurry &#8230; or maybe it just thinks he&#8217;ll face an inordinately high amount of lefties. <strong>Mark Ellis</strong> at 81 OPS+ (93) shouldn&#8217;t be much of a surprise considering he&#8217;s 36 and put up an 80 OPS+ at <strong>Coors Field</strong> in 2011.</p>
<p>The last guy of the starters is <strong>Carl Crawford</strong>, who is the enigma of the 2013 season. He checks in at 104, which is notable because it&#8217;s basically his career OPS+ and it&#8217;s about what he did in limited time in 2012 over in Boston. That&#8217;s of particular note for me, because what he did in Boston in 2012 can be attributed to <a href="http://www.chadmoriyama.com/2012/10/carl-crawford-mechanics-analysis-for-baseball-proguestus-over-at-baseball-prospectus/" target="_blank">a mechanical fix that I pointed out in an article for <strong>Baseball Prospectus</strong></a>. Understandably, his playing time checks in low, but if he can produce like he did in 2012 but over a whole season, the Dodgers will be much better for it.</p>
<p>Overall, after fixing the playing time of A.J., adjusting Ethier&#8217;s offense up a bit, and adjusting Hanley&#8217;s defense down a bit, the starting lineup totaled about <strong>22 WAR</strong>.</p>
<p>&#8212;&#8211;</p>
<p><u><strong>The Bench &#038; The Prospects</strong></u></p>
<p>Assuming a bench of <strong>Tim Federowicz</strong>, <strong>Scott Van Slyke</strong> or <strong>Alex Castellanos</strong>, <strong>Jerry Hairston Jr.</strong>, <strong>Nick Punto</strong>, and <strong>Skip Schumaker</strong>, we&#8217;re looking at around <strong>3 WAR</strong> here after playing time is adjusted back to realistic bench levels. I&#8217;m guessing <strong>Alfredo Amezaga</strong> or <strong>Tony Gwynn Jr.</strong> work their way in somehow, but a five-man bench seems likely initially if the Dodgers can&#8217;t deal multiple pitchers before the season starts. Neither player would affect the WAR projection much though.</p>
<p>Honestly? I have to hope the Dodgers do something to improve the bench, because the current configuration looks rather mediocre, and the other options are keeping <strong>Juan Uribe</strong> and/or <strong>Elian Herrera</strong>. Yuck.</p>
<p>The good news is that <strong>Joc Pederson</strong>, T-Fed, SVS, and Castle are projected to be solid at the MLB level, though it sees <strong>Dee Gordon</strong> basically languishing behind.</p>
<p>&#8212;&#8211;</p>
<p><u><strong>The Rotation</strong></u></p>
<p>Clayton Kershaw is simply a beast, and he figures to check in with a 75 FIP-. This might seem high considering his 2011 and 2012 ERA- figures of 63 and 67, respectively, but when you consider that <strong>Felix Hernandez</strong> clocks in at 78 FIP- for 2013, you get the picture.</p>
<p>What might surprise is how close new acquisition <strong>Zack Greinke</strong> comes in behind him, as he figures to put up an FIP- of 81. Granted, he has always projected favorably, as his career FIP- is 80, while his career ERA- is 88, but even adjusting slightly for that, there&#8217;s a definite case there for the best 1-2 punch in the majors.</p>
<p>Unfortunately, this is where it gets murky, as <strong>Chad Billingsley</strong> has the stuff to be the #3, but if I were a betting man, I would bet his elbow implodes before July. He projects at 92 FIP-, which would put him around last year&#8217;s performance, which was his arguably his best season since 2008. However, given <a href="http://www.mikesciosciastragicillness.com/2013/01/29/chad-billingsley-delaying-the-inevitable/14406" target="_blank">the nature of his injury and its history in the league</a>, you can basically never rely on him to stay healthy again until he has Tommy John surgery.</p>
<p>Next in the pecking order are <strong>Josh Beckett</strong>, who comes in below-average at 103, and foreign import <strong>Hyun Jin Ryu</strong>, who comes in well below-average at 116. As mentioned before, <a href="http://www.chadmoriyama.com/2012/08/trade-analysis-dodgers-blockbuster-improves-team-but-carries-significant-risk-gif-reactions/" target="_blank">the scouting reports for Beckett match</a> this projection, as he&#8217;s no longer a front-line starter due to his decrease in velocity. However, if he can manage to learn to pitch a bit more, he still has the curve to perhaps slot in as a #3 more than a #4. Ryu is a case where I would take any projection with a mound of salt, because there&#8217;s hardly anything to base objective projections on. Personally, I don&#8217;t think Ryu has the stuff to be a #2, nor do I think he&#8217;ll be a #3 on a team with a $250 million payroll, but he should slot in comfortably in the back-end of the rotation for years. I would project something slightly below-average for 2013 and then hope for better.</p>
<p>The rotation is a strong point because it has both arguably the best 1-2 punch in the majors and depth, with <strong>Chris Capuano</strong> (108 FIP-) and <strong>Aaron Harang</strong> (114 FIP) presumably traded for upgrades (or maybe kept somehow?), and it checks in at about <strong>17 WAR</strong>.</p>
<p>&#8212;&#8211;</p>
<p><u><strong>The Bullpen &#038; The Prospects</strong></u></p>
<p>As of right now, I&#8217;m assuming a bullpen of <strong>Brandon League</strong>, <strong>Kenley Jansen</strong>, <strong>Ronald Belisario</strong>, <strong>Javy Guerra</strong>, <strong>Matt Guerrier</strong>, <strong>J.P. Howell</strong>, and <strong>Ted Lilly</strong>.</p>
<p>Jansen is the best of the bunch (63 FIP-) and League projects a distant second (92 FIP-), but Belisario has the most upside in these projections (101 FIP-). After that, Guerra, Guerrier, and Howell are all around replacement level. Lilly projects as a league-average pitcher, assuming he&#8217;s healthy, which would be a boon to a team that has a ticking time bomb in the rotation.</p>
<p>As far as prospects go, ZiPS thinks <strong>Chris Reed</strong> could be a replacement-level fill-in right now, but <strong>Zach Lee</strong>, <strong>Matt Magill</strong>, and <strong>Garrett Gould</strong> need more seasoning. And for all of you who have <strong>Stephen Fife</strong> wet dreams (yes, you&#8217;re out there), he projects at a 4.91 FIP, so keep it in your pants.</p>
<p>Speaking of replacement level, that especially applies to the Dodgers bullpen because of <strong>Shawn Tolleson</strong>, <strong>Scott Elbert</strong>, <strong>Steven Ames</strong>, and <strong>Paco Rodriguez</strong>, so the <strong>4 WAR</strong> projection for this pen figures to be solid.</p>
<p>&#8212;&#8211;</p>
<p><u><strong>Team Projection</strong></u></p>
<p>A replacement-level team figures to win 43 games, and the team with the lowest amount of wins to get into the playoffs last year was the <strong>Cardinals</strong> at 88 wins, so 42 WAR puts you in the contender range and 45 WAR makes you viable, while 50 WAR will generally make a team a safe bet to be in the postseason. The Dodgers total <strong>46 WAR</strong>, which puts them well within the playoff hunt: good but not great.</p>
<p>The Dodgers basically project neck-and-neck with the rival <strong>Giants</strong>, while the <strong>D-Backs</strong> lag behind a bit by maybe a half dozen wins or so, but they&#8217;re well within striking distance as well.</p>
<p>So make no mistake, the Dodgers recent spending habits did not make them an elite team, as the money simply duct-taped over both a flawed team and farm system depleted by <strong>Frank McCourt</strong>&#8216;s ownership and <strong>Ned Colletti</strong>&#8216;s questionable decisions. But that&#8217;s not to denigrate the job the new owners have done, as they turned the franchise into a legitimate playoff contender seemingly overnight, which is still saying a lot about what money can do.</p>
<p>Granted, &#8220;we gave you a team that has the chance to make the playoffs&#8221; is not what fans want to hear, but it&#8217;s an acceptable scenario as they lay the foundation to rebuild the franchise the correct way in their own minds. The 2013 projections might not reflect world-beaters like most seem to expect, but it&#8217;s a projection based on historical trends rather than hopes and dreams.</p>
<p>The 2013 Dodgers are indeed a team with a lot of upside, and if everything breaks correctly, they could very well end up being one of the best teams in the league, but they also carry a ton of inherent age and injury risk, which is why the projections come in understandably conservative. Either way, if nothing else, this team figures to be never boring.</p>
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		<title>Injury Roll Call: Victorino, M. Ellis, Cruz Dealing With Injuries + Billingsley Progresses In Rehab</title>
		<link>http://www.chadmoriyama.com/2012/10/injury-roll-call-victorino-m-ellis-cruz-dealing-with-injuries-billingsley-progresses-in-rehab/</link>
		<comments>http://www.chadmoriyama.com/2012/10/injury-roll-call-victorino-m-ellis-cruz-dealing-with-injuries-billingsley-progresses-in-rehab/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 02 Oct 2012 15:32:33 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Greg Zakwin</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Features]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Injury Roll Call]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Bobby Abreu]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Chad Billingsley]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Josh Hamilton]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Los Angeles Dodgers]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Luis Cruz]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Mark Ellis]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Nick Punto]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Percy Harvin]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Shane Victorino]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Tony Gwynn Jr.]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.chadmoriyama.com/?p=11334</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Mark Ellis missed two games due to an illness this week, and was replaced by Nick Punto in the lineup. That&#8217;s for in case you were wondering why Punto was ever in the lineup to begin with. Though to be fair, he did do well in his limited playing time. &#8212;&#8211; Shane Victorino was scratched ...]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><img src="http://www.chadmoriyama.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/04/ChadBillingsleyFans-575x492.jpg" alt="" title="ChadBillingsleyFans" width="575" height="492" class="aligncenter size-large wp-image-5764" /></p>
<p><strong>Mark Ellis</strong> <a href="http://www.truebluela.com/2012/9/26/3413992/andre-ethier-shane-victorino-mark-ellis-out-dodgers-lineup" target="_blank">missed two games</a> due to an illness this week, and was replaced by <strong>Nick Punto</strong> in the lineup.</p>
<p>That&#8217;s for in case you were wondering why Punto was ever in the lineup to begin with. Though to be fair, he did do well in his limited playing time.</p>
<p>&#8212;&#8211;</p>
<p><strong>Shane Victorino</strong> was <a href="http://www.truebluela.com/2012/9/26/3413992/andre-ethier-shane-victorino-mark-ellis-out-dodgers-lineup" target="_blank">scratched from Wednesday&#8217;s game</a> with <a href="http://www.chadmoriyama.com/2012/09/injury-roll-call-dodgers-risk-kershaw-hanley-victorino-hurt-billingsley-lilly-on-the-mend/" target="_blank">recurring wrist pain</a>.</p>
<p>Oh well, he&#8217;s basically the unholy combination of <strong>Bobby Abreu</strong> and <strong>Tony Gwynn Jr.</strong> at this point anyway.</p>
<p>&#8212;&#8211;</p>
<p><strong>Luis Cruz</strong> <a href="http://www.truebluela.com/2012/9/29/3430738/matt-kemp-beast-mode" target="_blank">left Saturday&#8217;s game</a> with a headache.</p>
<p>If he wasn&#8217;t so loved, I&#8217;m sure some idiot would say he&#8217;s soft for sitting out while the <strong>Dodgers</strong> are still alive in the playoff race, or some garbage like that. <strong>Josh Hamilton</strong> and <strong>Percy Harvin</strong> know what I mean.</p>
<p>&#8212;&#8211;</p>
<p><strong>Chad Billingsley</strong> has <a href="http://www.truebluela.com/2012/9/29/3427972/dodgers-notes-mark-ellis-clayton-kershaws" target="_blank">continued to show improvement</a> in his light throwing sessions.</p>
<p>His progress is probably going to be the story of the month unless the Dodgers somehow make the playoffs. Whether or not he needs Tommy John surgery is going to have a gigantic impact on 2013 and whether pitching is a priority for the Dodgers during the offseason.</p>
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		<title>What was the argument between Ned Colletti and the Dodger coaches about?</title>
		<link>http://www.chadmoriyama.com/2012/09/what-was-the-argument-between-ned-colletti-and-the-dodger-coaches-about/</link>
		<comments>http://www.chadmoriyama.com/2012/09/what-was-the-argument-between-ned-colletti-and-the-dodger-coaches-about/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 28 Sep 2012 15:18:28 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Chad Moriyama</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Daily News]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[SOSEFD]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[A.J. Ellis]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Andre Ethier]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Barry Bloom]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Dee Gordon]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Don Mattingly]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Los Angeles Dodgers]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Mark Ellis]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Matt Kemp]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Ned Colletti]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Nick Punto]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[San Diego Padres]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[T.J. Simers]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.chadmoriyama.com/?p=11361</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Barry Bloom of MLB.com revealed through an interview that Ned Colletti and the Dodger coaching staff got into a bit of an argument after Tuesday&#8217;s 2-1 loss to the Padres. MLB.com: So there was a little blowup in the clubhouse after Tuesday night&#8217;s loss here. We heard that was you. Colletti: I had a passionate ...]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><img src="http://www.chadmoriyama.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/09/NedCollettiDonMattingly.jpg" alt="" title="NedCollettiDonMattingly" width="450" height="375" class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-11368" /><br />
<strong>Barry Bloom</strong> of <strong>MLB.com</strong> <a href="http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20120927&#038;content_id=39127810&#038;notebook_id=39131232 " target="_blank">revealed through an interview</a> that <strong>Ned Colletti</strong> and the <strong>Dodger</strong> coaching staff got into a bit of an argument after Tuesday&#8217;s 2-1 loss to the <strong>Padres</strong>.</p>
<blockquote><p>MLB.com: So there was a little blowup in the clubhouse after Tuesday night&#8217;s loss here. We heard that was you.</p>
<p>Colletti: I had a passionate exchange in the coach&#8217;s room.</p>
<p>MLB.com: What was the message?</p>
<p>Colletti: Were you invited?</p>
<p>MLB.com: No, but I wish I was.</p>
<p>Colletti: It was just a bit of an evaluation.</p></blockquote>
<p>Two hours later, <strong>T.J. Simers</strong> of the <strong>Los Angeles Times</strong> <a href="http://www.latimes.com/sports/baseball/mlb/dodgers/la-sp-0928-simers-dodgers-20120928,0,1238164,full.column " target="_blank">released similar information</a> through an article of his own.</p>
<blockquote><p>The other night after the Dodgers lost to the Padres, while the media met with Manager Don Mattingly, screaming could be heard from the nearby coaches&#8217; dressing room.</p>
<p>&#8220;Passionate&#8221; screaming? General Manager Ned Colletti says with a smirk when asked if it was he.</p>
<p>&#8220;Yes, I had a passionate discussion with the staff, and then I had another one with a [softer] voice with Donnie. I think every once in a while you just need to recalibrate.&#8221;</p></blockquote>
<p>Say what you want about Colletti (and I have), but he&#8217;s never given the impression of being a screaming madman type. Quite the opposite, really. So for this to happen and for these reports to go public, something really must have set him off on that particular day after the game.</p>
<p>While us fans probably shouldn&#8217;t overreact to it and jump to the conclusion that there&#8217;s some type of breakdown in the front office and/or clubhouse, I do feel it&#8217;s okay to wonder what exactly triggered this.</p>
<p>&#8212;&#8211;</p>
<p>In the top of the ninth in that game, a sequence occurred that ultimately led to the Dodgers losing by a run despite trailing by a one score with nobody out and a runner on second. When the game got to that point, <strong>Dee Gordon</strong> pinch-ran for <strong>A.J. Ellis</strong> on second, and everybody knows that Dee has enough speed to make that base represent scoring position on almost any hit. Despite that move, Mattingly opted to pinch-hit with <strong>Nick Punto</strong> and bunt Dee over to third. After <strong>Mark Ellis</strong> walked to put runners on first and third, <strong>Andre Ethier</strong> and <strong>Matt Kemp</strong> went down to end the game.</p>
<p>Mattingly&#8217;s decision to bunt Gordon to third increased the chances of the Dodgers scoring in that inning, but decreased their chances of winning by 3-5%. So was that the reason for the blowup? Maybe, but I doubt it. Mattingly makes moves like that <strong>all the time</strong>, so if it was going to be an issue, one would think this would have come up way sooner than September. Honestly, it&#8217;s considered more of a sin by us saber-oriented fans and bloggers than to the front office.</p>
<p>As such, perhaps it was just the culmination of a frustrating season? The team is having general struggles, and that was the day they fell 4.5 games back in the race for the final playoff spot. Odds are that it was probably related to those difficulties, just because I don&#8217;t think the GM goes down to rant to the field staff based on single game decisions with any type of regularity.</p>
<p>Then again, maybe it had something to do with <a href="http://scores.espn.go.com/mlb/playbyplay?gameId=320925125 " target="_blank">how <strong>Andre Ethier</strong> was used</a>. In the top of the eighth inning, Ethier was allowed to hit against a lefty. Not a big deal, right? Happens all the time. I didn&#8217;t think much of it either, but <a href="http://losangeles.dodgers.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20120927&#038;content_id=39127810&#038;notebook_id=39131232" target="_blank">a recent story on the Dodgers official site</a> basically gets the team to admit that the people in charge are having internal discussions about sitting him against lefties.</p>
<blockquote><p>Another season is almost in the books and the Dodgers are once again mystified by outfielder Andre Ethier&#8217;s inability to hit left-handed pitching anywhere near as successfully as he does against right-handers.</p></blockquote>
<blockquote><p>&#8220;It&#8217;s something we seriously have to look at as far as how we approach it. I think he can hit left-handers. The numbers say maybe he can&#8217;t and we have to go a different route. Me believing a guy can do something and him doing it are two different things.&#8221;</p></blockquote>
<p>Nothing concrete there to say it was the reason, but you have to read between the lines a little. The issue has obviously been an internal discussion for a while and, perhaps when combined with the status of the team in the standings, it just finally boiled over. In this case, given Mattingly&#8217;s consistent stance that Ethier can indeed hit lefties, Colletti might have even be taking the sabermetric position on this one.</p>
<p>Ned Colletti? Statistics over guts? What is this madness?! Look at what Don Mattingly has driven our precious GM to.</p>
<p>&#8212;&#8211;</p>
<p>Naturally, this is all speculation, but given the justifiably raised expectations of the team and their inability to perform despite the numerous acquisitions, one would think journalists would have made more of an effort to shed light on the situation than to just allow Colletti to get off with dodging the question.</p>
<p>That&#8217;s especially true given that the front office and ownership has spent all September telling fans that there&#8217;s always next year, yet their actions in handling players and making transactions have told a very different tale.</p>
<p>Seems to me that this would warrant further investigation than to be a throw-in question during a media session. Given that people covering the Dodgers documented and opined about every single little thing Matt Kemp did wrong in 2010 (to give an example), one would think the GM and coaches blowing up at each other as the team collapses in September would be worthy of an investigation.</p>
<p>I know I&#8217;d like to hear more about what transpired.</p>
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		<title>Tim Federowicz, Alex Castellanos, Javy Guerra Lead Potential September Helpers</title>
		<link>http://www.chadmoriyama.com/2012/09/tim-federowicz-alex-castellanos-javy-guerra-lead-potential-september-helpers/</link>
		<comments>http://www.chadmoriyama.com/2012/09/tim-federowicz-alex-castellanos-javy-guerra-lead-potential-september-helpers/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sat, 01 Sep 2012 13:55:44 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Chad Moriyama</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Analysis]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Opinions]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Adam Kennedy]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Alex Castellanos]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Bobby Abreu]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Chad Billingsley]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Dee Gordon]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Elian Herrera]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Javy Guerra]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Jerry Sands]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[John Ely]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Josh Wall]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Juan Rivera]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Juan Uribe]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Kenley Jansen]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Los Angeles Dodgers]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Matt Angle]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Matt Treanor]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Nick Punto]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Rubby De La Rosa]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Scott Elbert]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Scott Van Slyke]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Shane Victorino]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Stephen Fife]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Ted Lilly]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Tim Federowicz]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Tony Gwynn Jr.]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.chadmoriyama.com/?p=9286</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Now that rosters have expanded, let the speculation on who gets the September call begin! Pump the brakes a bit though, because unfortunately for the people who wish to see young players show their stuff: 1) the 40-man roster is full 2) guys on the 60-day DL are due to return 3) um &#8230; the ...]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><img src="http://www.chadmoriyama.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/09/JavyGuerraCheapBullpen-500x285.jpg" alt="" title="JavyGuerraCheapBullpen" width="500" height="285" class="aligncenter size-large wp-image-2052" /></p>
<p>Now that rosters have expanded, let the speculation on who gets the September call begin!</p>
<p>Pump the brakes a bit though, because unfortunately for the people who wish to see young players show their stuff: 1) the 40-man roster is full 2) guys on the 60-day DL are due to return 3) um &#8230; the team just traded away all of the top prospects that were close to contributing.</p>
<p>&#8212;&#8211;</p>
<p>One of the primary issues is that <strong>Rubby De La Rosa</strong> and <strong>Jerry Sands</strong> are still on the Dodgers 40-man roster, so it creates a bit of a mess in terms of roster spots. This is especially true because <strong>Ted Lilly</strong> (maybe) and <strong>Dee Gordon</strong> are set to return, which means guys will have to get designated just to fit them in. Perhaps <strong>Chad Billingsley</strong>, <strong>Kenley Jansen</strong>, or <strong>Scott Elbert</strong> could be placed on the 60-day DL, but that creates more holes, not less.</p>
<p>Either way, guys like <strong>Adam Kennedy</strong>, <strong>Juan Uribe</strong>, <strong>Matt Angle</strong>, <strong>Elian Herrera</strong>, and <strong>Stephen Fife</strong> might not want to get too comfortable on the 40-man, depending on what direction the team decides on. However, due to the roster crunch, those hoping for players not on the 40-man roster to get called &#8212; like <strong>John Ely</strong>, <strong>Tony Gwynn Jr.</strong>, and <strong>Bobby Abreu</strong> &#8212; might be left disappointed.</p>
<p>&#8212;&#8211;</p>
<p>Among those who I feel could help the team immediately are <strong>Tim Federowicz</strong>, <strong>Javy Guerra</strong>, <strong>Josh Wall</strong>, and <strong>Alex Castellanos</strong>. I <a href="http://www.chadmoriyama.com/2012/08/rubby-de-la-rosa-deserves-his-promotion-to-the-dodgers-but-why-demote-javy-guerra/" target="_blank">already went over the reasons Guerra could contribute</a>, as I believed sending him down to begin with was foolish. Wall, despite just an average year at AAA, has the raw stuff catch fire and help stabilize a suddenly shaky bullpen. Federowicz is not as good a hitter as his .296/.371/.465/.836 line in AAA would indicate, but he&#8217;s a good defender and is an upgrade over <strong>Matt Treanor</strong> right now. Castellanos could provide right-handed thump off the bench, as his .338/.431/.610/1.041 line in AAA would somewhat indicate. I&#8217;d rather see him get a chance than continue to run <strong>Juan Rivera</strong> out there, that&#8217;s for sure.</p>
<p>Other possibilities on the 40-man are <strong>Scott Van Slyke</strong> and Fife. Van Slyke could do much the same as Castellanos, but I have less confidence in his bat. Still, he can hardly be a worse pinch hitting option than Uribe or Kennedy or <strong>Nick Punto</strong>. I&#8217;m not sure Fife would fit in the bullpen, but if he&#8217;s not going to get designated then he could be called up to use as a long man.</p>
<p>Ely, Gwynn, and Abreu could all help, but I have to think they&#8217;re long shots due to the roster crunch reasons I mentioned earlier. Personally, I would have no problem designating about a half dozen players, but the team has somehow managed to resist doing that all year, so I don&#8217;t see why they would start now. With that said, if a starter goes down with injury, Ely deserves a chance after putting up a 3.20 ERA in 168.2 innings with solid peripherals in that league. Gwynn has put up a .304/.400/.393/.793 line at AAA and I really feel like he has to be added to the 40-man and called up somehow, if for no other reason than to pinch run. If Abreu&#8217;s healthy, he could probably do what <strong>Shane Victorino</strong> is producing in left right now sans the defense, so he could be a useful bench guy.</p>
<p>&#8212;&#8211;</p>
<p>Assuming Billingsley, Jansen, and Elbert return from injury, and that Gordon will be back but not Lilly, I would call on Federowicz, Guerra, Wall, Castellanos, Van Slyke, Gwynn, and Abreu while designating Uribe, Angle, and Herrera.</p>
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		<title>Around The Web: Adrian Gonzalez Blockbuster Trade Reaction</title>
		<link>http://www.chadmoriyama.com/2012/08/around-the-web-adrian-gonzalez-blockbuster-trade-reaction/</link>
		<comments>http://www.chadmoriyama.com/2012/08/around-the-web-adrian-gonzalez-blockbuster-trade-reaction/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 27 Aug 2012 17:33:43 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Chad Moriyama</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Around The Web]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[SOSEFD]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Adrian Gonzalez]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Allen Webster]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Boston Red Sox]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Buster Olney]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Carl Crawford]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Dave Cameron]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Delino DeShields]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Eric Stephen]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Frank McCourt]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Ivan De Jesus]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[James Loney]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Jay Jaffe]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Jerry Sands]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Jon Weisman]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Josh Beckett]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Keith Law]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Ken Rosenthal]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Los Angeles Dodgers]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Mark Walter]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Mike Petriello]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Nick Punto]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Pedro Martinez]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Peter Gammons]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Rubby De La Rosa]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Stan Kasten]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.chadmoriyama.com/?p=9026</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Mike Scioscia&#8217;s Tragic Illness: Even though he&#8217;s away from home right now, I think Mike Petriello comes away from the trade with the right approach. So how am I feeling about it today? I think Gonzalez is going to be an incredible fit in LA, especially considering that reports of his demise in Boston seem ...]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><img src="http://www.chadmoriyama.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/08/AdrianGonzalezHomer-575x409.jpg" alt="" title="AdrianGonzalezHomer" width="575" height="409" class="aligncenter size-large wp-image-9028" /></p>
<p><a href="http://www.mikesciosciastragicillness.com/2012/08/25/welcome-to-los-angeles-monster-adrian-gonzalez-deal-all-but-done/13097" target="_blank"><strong>Mike Scioscia&#8217;s Tragic Illness</strong></a>: Even though he&#8217;s away from home right now, I think <strong>Mike Petriello</strong> comes away from the trade with the right approach.</p>
<blockquote><p>So how am I feeling about it today? I think Gonzalez is going to be an incredible fit in LA, especially considering that reports of his demise in Boston seem overblown (he was outstanding last year and has been very good for much of this year after a slow start) and that he never seemed to want to leave Southern California in the first place. It’s a high price to pay, but if he is what we think he is – and don’t forget, there was little available in the first base market next year, so if you’re spending money, this is how you do it – and the team becomes a consistent contender, I think it’ll be a price we can live with.</p>
<p>And if not? The next decade could get ugly, fast. For now, I’m cautiously optimistic, but mainly excited for the rest of the season.</p></blockquote>
<p>I&#8217;m the same. Hopeful, but wary for reasons that I believe are legitimate. Far too many <strong>Dodgers</strong> fans pretending this is highway robbery in our favor, in my opinion.</p>
<p><a href="http://www.dodgerthoughts.com/2012/08/24/why-im-hearing-pedro-delino-in-rubby-adrian/" target="_blank"><strong>Dodger Thoughts</strong></a>: <strong>Jon Weisman</strong> invokes <strong>Pedro Martinez</strong> for <strong>Delino DeShields</strong>.</p>
<blockquote><p>The chances of De La Rosa becoming one of the greatest pitchers of all time might be slim, but De La Rosa doesn’t have to become the second Pedro to represent a major loss for the Dodgers. He could just be really good, while Gonzalez apes DeShields’ decline.</p>
<p>Like I said, I’m hungry for a World Series title, and I’m not saying the risk of trading De La Rosa won’t be worth it. Don’t misunderstand me: The Dodgers need a player like Gonzalez, who boosts them at their weakest position. I even believe that a move back to his Southern California roots and away from the Red Sox maelstrom could revitalize him.</p>
<p>All I’m saying is, short of Clayton Kershaw, the trade of any other pitcher besides De La Rosa would have left me more comfortable.</p></blockquote>
<p>Not sure I agree with the people flipping out on him, especially if the Dodgers can&#8217;t upgrade their rotation significantly in the coming years. However, I think <strong>Adrian Gonzalez</strong> is a far better player and <strong>Rubby De La Rosa</strong>, while one of my favorites, won&#8217;t get to ace level.</p>
<p><a href="http://mlb.si.com/2012/08/24/pending-blockbuster-trade-represents-risk-for-dodgers-makeover-for-red-sox/" target="_blank"><strong>Sports Illustrated</strong></a>: <strong>Jay Jaffe</strong> acknowledges the risk and the reward, saying that if nothing else it makes the season compelling.</p>
<blockquote><p>All in all, it’s a dizzying deal that could affect not only the outcome of this year’s NL playoff races, but also could turn the Dodgers into the NL West’s powerhouse for years to come, with an enviable middle of the order starring Kemp, Gonzalez, Ramirez and Ethier. Or it could blow up in the team’s collective face, saddling the Dodgers with unproductive players signed to long-term deals, and hampering their roster flexibility much as it did these Red Sox.</p>
<p>Given their surrender of two top young arms, and the massive savings — and saving face — that the deal offered Boston, the Dodgers should have come away with far more than $12 million in salary discounts. That they didn’t puts virtually all of the risk on them, but it makes for a compellingly aggressive play in a playoff race that remains wide open.</p></blockquote>
<p><a href="http://www.truebluela.com/2012/8/25/3267652/dodgers-trade-competitive-balance-tax-2013" target="_blank"><strong>True Blue LA</strong></a>: <strong>Eric Stephen</strong> notes that the team is headed for the luxury tax.</p>
<p><a href="http://www.latimes.com/sports/dodgersnow/la-sp-dn-stan-kasten-dodgers-trade-20120825,0,6867466.story" target="_blank"><strong>Dodgers Now</strong></a>: <strong>Stan Kasten</strong> says they aren&#8217;t maxed out yet though.</p>
<blockquote><p>If the Dodgers can add $260 million to their payroll in one trade &#8212; and close to a half-billion dollars in four months &#8212; is there a limit to their spending?</p>
<p>&#8220;Somewhere, I suppose,&#8221; Chairman Mark Walter said Saturday.</p>
<p>And where might that limit be?</p>
<p>&#8220;I haven&#8217;t found it yet,&#8221; President Stan Kasten said. &#8220;I&#8217;ll let you know when we get there.&#8221;</p></blockquote>
<p>Not sure how much of that is rhetoric, but I think we&#8217;ll see in the 2013 off-season.</p>
<p><a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/red-sox-hit-reboot-dodgers-pick-up-pieces/" target="_blank"><strong>FanGraphs</strong></a>: <strong>Dave Cameron</strong> thinks it doesn&#8217;t make sense from a baseball perspective but that it might make sense if the Dodgers make a deep run into the playoffs due to financials.</p>
<blockquote><p>From a purely baseball standpoint, this investment doesn’t make sense. Gonzalez isn’t valuable enough to make him worth taking on the albatross contracts of Crawford and Beckett, and the Dodgers almost certainly could have gotten a better bang for their buck in free agency this winter. However, making moves this winter won’t get people interested in the Dodgers in the same way that a deep playoff run this year will.</p></blockquote>
<p>I&#8217;m getting a lot of similar comments on Twitter, so I know this isn&#8217;t a rare opinion, but I have to wonder how legitimate the train of thought is. Dodgers fans show up regardless of how the team is doing, and the only reason attendance plummeted last year was because of a fan boycott of <strong>Frank McCourt</strong>. Even with all the turmoil, they were sixth in attendance last year, and this year they&#8217;re already back up to third. As such, I don&#8217;t buy the argument that they needed to do this during the season to make the playoffs otherwise fans wouldn&#8217;t come back and they wouldn&#8217;t make money. If the tens of millions from potential playoff revenue is going to make or break a team with billions of dollars looming, then there are bigger problems here.</p>
<p>Also, I don&#8217;t buy that this is to create buzz for a media deal. We&#8217;re all speculating, but logically I don&#8217;t see why cable companies, who negotiate deals like this all the time, would be swayed off their valuation due to a small sample size and not take into account the big 15-to-25 year picture. It&#8217;s already rumored to be in the $8 billion range, so how much higher could it go? Maybe they are that dumb, I dunno, but it seems iffy to assume so.</p>
<blockquote><p>There’s no getting around the fact that the Dodgers likely just paid $20 for a gallon of milk. Given the prices everyone else is paying for milk, that seems pretty silly. If you happen to have lots of $20 bills and no milk, however, and there’s only one guy selling milk in your immediate vicinity, maybe you just complain about price gouging and hand over the $20. Depending on just how many $20s the Dodgers ownership has, this might not end up being quite as nuts as it looks on the surface.</p>
<p>Or, maybe I’m just over-thinking all of this, and the Dodgers just made a horrible, horrible trade. I’m honestly not sure.</p></blockquote>
<p>Maybe, but I can&#8217;t see this trade destroying the team down the road. It might make for an inferior roster, but as long as they continue to spend, the team will be competitive. I&#8217;d just rather have to go through as little big money decline phases as possible.</p>
<p><a href="http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/blog/_/name/olney_buster/id/8302152/winners-losers-dodgers-red-sox-blockbuster-trade-mlb" target="_blank"><strong>ESPN</strong></a>: <strong>Buster Olney</strong> names his winners and losers &#8230; with the Dodgers on both.</p>
<blockquote><p>Winners: The Dodgers of 2012</p>
<p>They are markedly better today than they were before this deal. Adrian Gonzalez is perfect for their lineup, their lineup balance, their defense and their ballpark, and he knows the division from his many years with the Padres. Beckett might be energized, and he gets to shift out of one of the best-hitting divisions to one of the worst.</p>
<p>Winners: Magic Johnson, Stan Kasten and the rest of the Dodgers&#8217; ownership group</p>
<p>In less than four months, these owners have managed to completely rebrand the franchise, and, even if the Dodgers don&#8217;t make the playoffs this year, they&#8217;ve set themselves up for a major bounce forward in attendance and interest and team success in 2013. The city might throw them a parade even if they don&#8217;t win the World Series because, ding-dong, the Frank McCourt era is over.</p></blockquote>
<blockquote><p>Losers: The Dodgers of 2017</p>
<p>The team&#8217;s stunning spending spree feels good today, but Los Angeles has set itself up to have a roster loaded with aging stars in about five years &#8212; Matt Kemp, Gonzalez, Crawford and Andre Ethier all have contracts that run through that season. By then, the Dodgers&#8217; farm system should be replenished, and the club&#8217;s ownership should have the resources to pave over that type of problem in the way the Yankees have &#8212; and, in any event, Dodgers fans won&#8217;t have to worry about that for a while.</p></blockquote>
<p><a href="http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/blog/_/name/law_keith/id/8301914/breaking-dodgers-red-sox-trade-featuring-adrian-gonzalez-josh-beckett-carl-crawford-mlb" target="_blank"><strong>ESPN</strong></a>: <strong>Keith Law</strong> takes a good now and bad later approach as well.</p>
<blockquote><p>This deal could end up looking good for both sides, better for the Dodgers in the very short term but much better for the Red Sox in the long term. Boston enters this winter with a new financial lease on life, freeing the Sox up to spend in a weak free-agent market or perhaps to take on a large contract someone else would like to move (Cliff Lee? Justin Upton?).</p>
<p>They&#8217;re also looking at a pretty interesting group of position-player prospects racing up the system, led by Xander Bogaerts, who has improved his defense at shortstop this year and might defy earlier expectations and stay at the position. That potential for an inexpensive core should help Boston avoid a similar tangle of large contracts in the near future, just at a point when the Dodgers are facing a financial quagmire and roster crunch of their own.</p></blockquote>
<p>Baseball executives are chiming in on the trade, basically questioning what the Dodgers are doing.</p>
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p>Rival exec on <a href="https://twitter.com/search/?q=%23Dodgers"><s>#</s><b>Dodgers</b></a>: “If you had $250M to spend, is this how you’d do it?”</p>
<p>&mdash; Ken Rosenthal (@Ken_Rosenthal) <a href="https://twitter.com/Ken_Rosenthal/status/239346610893647873" data-datetime="2012-08-25T13:00:53+00:00">August 25, 2012</a></p></blockquote>
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p>Rival execs are wondering why LADs didn&#8217;t simply say to BOS: We&#8217;ll take your bad contracts, but we&#8217;re not giving you any prospects of note.</p>
<p>&mdash; Buster Olney (@Buster_ESPN) <a href="https://twitter.com/Buster_ESPN/status/239430942467440640" data-datetime="2012-08-25T18:35:59+00:00">August 25, 2012</a></p></blockquote>
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p>NL exec view:&#8221;The Dodgers so wanted Gonzalez they took Crawford and Beckett&#8217;s money and traded two great arms to get him.&#8221;</p>
<p>&mdash; Peter Gammons (@pgammo) <a href="https://twitter.com/pgammo/status/239394774862409729" data-datetime="2012-08-25T16:12:16+00:00">August 25, 2012</a></p></blockquote>
<p>While <a href="http://www.chadmoriyama.com/2012/08/trade-analysis-dodgers-blockbuster-improves-team-but-carries-significant-risk-gif-reactions/" target="_blank">I don&#8217;t necessarily disagree with their assessment</a>, one has to wonder how much of this is legit and how much of this is just being jealous.</p>
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		<title>Trade Analysis: Dodgers Blockbuster Improves Team But Carries Significant Risk + GIF Reactions</title>
		<link>http://www.chadmoriyama.com/2012/08/trade-analysis-dodgers-blockbuster-improves-team-but-carries-significant-risk-gif-reactions/</link>
		<comments>http://www.chadmoriyama.com/2012/08/trade-analysis-dodgers-blockbuster-improves-team-but-carries-significant-risk-gif-reactions/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sat, 25 Aug 2012 14:19:32 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Chad Moriyama</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Analysis]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Transactions]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Adrian Gonzalez]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Allen Webster]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Boston Red Sox]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Carl Crawford]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Clayton Kershaw]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Ivan De Jesus]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[James Loney]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Jay Jaffe]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Jerry Sands]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Josh Beckett]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Kevin Goldstein]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Los Angeles Dodgers]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Nick Punto]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Rubby De La Rosa]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.chadmoriyama.com/?p=8988</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[The Dodgers finalized a trade today that will send Rubby De La Rosa, Allen Webster, Jerry Sands, James Loney, and Ivan De Jesus to the Red Sox for Adrian Gonzalez, Carl Crawford, Josh Beckett, Nick Punto, and Cash. I gave my initial reaction to the deal yesterday, but after an in-depth analysis, did anything change? ...]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><img src="http://www.chadmoriyama.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/08/AdrianGonzalezDodgers-575x437.jpg" alt="" title="AdrianGonzalezDodgers" width="575" height="437" class="aligncenter size-large wp-image-8972" /></p>
<p>The <strong>Dodgers</strong> <a href="https://twitter.com/MikeSilvermanBB/statuses/239350178644123648" target="_blank">finalized a trade today</a> that will send <strong>Rubby De La Rosa</strong>, <strong>Allen Webster</strong>, <strong>Jerry Sands</strong>, <strong>James Loney</strong>, and <strong>Ivan De Jesus</strong> to the <strong>Red Sox</strong> for <strong>Adrian Gonzalez</strong>, <strong>Carl Crawford</strong>, <strong>Josh Beckett</strong>, <strong>Nick Punto</strong>, and Cash.</p>
<p>I gave <a href="http://www.chadmoriyama.com/2012/08/dodgers-reportedly-acquire-a-gon-beckett-crawford-and-punto-for-rubby-webster-sands-loney-de-jesus-cash/" target="_blank">my initial reaction to the deal yesterday</a>, but after an in-depth analysis, did anything change?</p>
<p>=====</p>
<p><strong>Adrian Gonzalez</strong></p>
<p>The Dodgers are paying ~$130 million for six years and a month of his services. Accounting for inflation over the course of the contract, every win will come out to ~$5 million, so the Dodgers are paying for about 26 WAR or 4.2 WAR per year.</p>
<p>Will he be worth it? I&#8217;m quite confident he will be, despite issues that others have concerns about.</p>
<p><img src="http://www.chadmoriyama.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/08/AdrianGonzalezProjection.jpg" alt="" title="AdrianGonzalezProjection" width="337" height="43" class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-8989" /></p>
<p>In 2011 with the Red Sox, he hit .338/.410/.548/.957, posting a ~6.5 WAR season. He got off to a slow start in 2012, however, and thus only has a .300/.343/.469/.812 line. However, he has come on of late, and he projects to finish the year on a .301/.369/.504/.873 tear, so I don&#8217;t think he&#8217;s at the start of a precipitous decline. The primary concern is that his career 10.7 BB% has dipped to 5.9%, and it will need to rebound for him to live up to his usual standard. With that said, his batting projection puts his OPS around .860 or so, which presumes a gain in walk rate.</p>
<p>His fielding has never been in doubt, as he is a plus defender across all advanced metrics and I don&#8217;t think anybody would argue with it. He does lack foot speed though, which is why his baserunning total comes in low.</p>
<p>That&#8217;s not to say there&#8217;s minimal risk though, which makes sense, since he wouldn&#8217;t have been let go otherwise. He&#8217;s in his age-30 season right now, and aging curves tell us that he&#8217;s likely to regress over the course of his contract, as the mid-30s are generally the danger area. On the upside, I don&#8217;t see a reason to be concerned about injuries, as he has never played in less than 156 games in a full season.</p>
<p>Factoring everything above, A-Gon comes out to about a 5 WAR player, and he figures to be worth around 27 WAR after accounting for age regression. While he won&#8217;t be providing much surplus value beyond what he&#8217;s being paid by the Dodgers, he should be well worth the acquisition, especially considering the barren first base market and the lack of internal options. The A-Gon part of this deal is cause of excitement.</p>
<p><strong>Reaction GIF Analysis</strong></p>
<p><img src="http://www.chadmoriyama.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/08/TopGunHighFive.gif" alt="" title="TopGunHighFive" width="344" height="224" class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-9000" /></p>
<p>&#8212;&#8211;</p>
<p><strong>Carl Crawford</strong></p>
<p>The Dodgers are paying ~$105 million for five years and a month of his services. Accounting for inflation over the course of the contract, every win will come out to ~$5 million, so the Dodgers are paying for about 21 WAR or 4.1 WAR per year.</p>
<p>Unlike A-Gon, where I have trouble seeing how he&#8217;s not worth it, I have trouble seeing how Crawford will even get anywhere close to worth it.</p>
<p><img src="http://www.chadmoriyama.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/08/CarlCrawfordProjection.jpg" alt="" title="CarlCrawfordProjection" width="320" height="43" class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-8996" /></p>
<p>For the past two seasons, Crawford has been &#8230; uh &#8230; a mess. He&#8217;s been worth a total of around 0.5 WAR, which needless to say doesn&#8217;t bode well for his 4.1 WAR goal. Even if you completely believe that his skills are intact, his body throws a sizable wrench into the equation to say the least, and it doesn&#8217;t help then that he may miss a few months of next season. He was projected to post a .283/.323/.446/.769 line for the rest of 2012, which is quite generous since his actual line has been .260/.292/.419/.711 for 2011 and 2012. For the projection, I put him around a .780 OPS, which is almost what he posted in his last few years with the <strong>Rays</strong>.</p>
<p>On the basepaths, despite his basestealing ability, he&#8217;s never been a plus baserunner, but he does clock in on the positive side of the ledger due to his speed. His defense will probably generate the biggest debate, as it was once a plus tool, but it has since regressed to average at best across the advanced metrics due to injury or whatever else. Personally though, I think he should benefit from the bigger spaces in <strong>Dodger Stadium</strong>, so he should return to form. However, it would be dishonest to just grant him plus status after two clear years of regression, so I made him just good instead of elite.</p>
<p>Like Gonzalez, Crawford is in his age-30 season and will regress over the course of his contract, including the dreaded mid-30s. Unlike Gonzalez, there&#8217;s ample reason to worry about Crawford&#8217;s health, and his projected playing time reflects that, clocking in at ~550 plate appearances.</p>
<p>Factoring everything above, Crawford comes out to about a 2.9 WAR player, and he figures to be worth around 12 WAR after accounting for age regression.</p>
<p>So he should be worth a bit more than half his contract, and when that contract totals in excess of $100 million that burns quite a bit. Unlike at first base, the options in the outfield, either short-term or long-term, to get better value were plentiful. Therefore, I can&#8217;t see how anybody would be excited about taking him on. The &#8220;he&#8217;s better than <strong>Juan Rivera</strong>&#8221; argument only works for this year because the Dodgers would have options in the offseason, and since Crawford won&#8217;t be playing this year there&#8217;s really no defense for this. I&#8217;m assuming a lot in his favor as it is, and if he&#8217;s right he should be a decent player for the team until late in the deal, but he certainly won&#8217;t be worth what the Dodgers are paying him unless lighting strikes.</p>
<p><strong>Reaction GIF Analysis</strong></p>
<p><img src="http://www.chadmoriyama.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/08/BreakingBadJesseTable.gif" alt="" title="BreakingBadJesseTable" width="280" height="280" class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-9002" /></p>
<p>&#8212;&#8211;</p>
<p><strong>Josh Beckett</strong></p>
<p>The Dodgers are paying ~$35 million for two years and a month of his services. Accounting for inflation over the course of the contract, every win will come out to ~$4.75 million, so the Dodgers are paying for about 7.5 WAR or 3.5 WAR per year.</p>
<p>I&#8217;m actually more confident that Crawford will make meaningful contributions than Beckett for reasons that go beyond statistics, so needless to say, I&#8217;m skeptical about him earning his keep.</p>
<p><img src="http://www.chadmoriyama.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/08/JoshBeckettProjection.jpg" alt="" title="JoshBeckettProjection" width="262" height="42" class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-8997" /></p>
<p>In 2012, Beckett has a 5.23 ERA, 4.27 FIP, 4.39 xFIP, and 4.28 SIERA. That&#8217;s about the profile of <strong>Bud Norris</strong> of the <strong>Astros</strong> at the moment &#8230; if Norris was set to make $16 million annually.</p>
<p>The reason I only mention 2012 is <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=18006" target="_blank">this report</a> by <strong>Kevin Goldstein</strong> of <strong>Baseball Prospectus</strong>:</p>
<blockquote><p>Goldstein says that Beckett’s 70 fastball has turned into a 55/60. His once-biting curve has lost a similar amount of stuff: Goldstein reports that he would be “leery” of putting a 60 rating on it and might call it a 50-plus. His cutter, he explains, is at best a 40. Given how often he throws it, the cutter could be something of an Achilles’ heel for Beckett going forward.</p>
<p>Goldstein is not terribly optimistic about Beckett’s performance going forward and grades him as a no. 4 or no. 5 starter going forward.</p></blockquote>
<p>That scouting report is backed by fastball velocity that has dropped from 93.8 MPH for his career to 91.6 MPH, and a strikeout rate that has gone from a career 22.2% to 17.2%. I&#8217;m not sure how anybody could reasonably expect him to bounce back to 4-5 WAR levels with that profile.</p>
<p>Like Gonzalez and Crawford, Beckett isn&#8217;t young. He&#8217;s in his age-32 season, is showing signs of decline, and is under contract into his mid-30s. There&#8217;s reason to worry about injury too, as he missed significant time (60-day DL) two years ago with a back strain and was placed on the DL for shoulder inflammation this year. Since he&#8217;ll likely only get to ~160 innings this year, I think giving him ~175 is generous enough.</p>
<p>Factoring everything above, Beckett comes out to about a 2.1 WAR player, and he figures to be worth around 4 WAR after accounting for age regression.</p>
<p>Like Crawford, he projects to be worth a bit more than half what he&#8217;s being paid, but it burns a lot less because it&#8217;s only a two year commitment after 2012. Of course, there&#8217;s opportunity cost here as well, because there&#8217;s always bargain options that can provide 1.5 to 2.5 WAR for a lot less than what Beckett will be paid, as <strong>Chris Capuano</strong> and the likes have proven. I suppose there&#8217;s upside hidden deep in Beckett&#8217;s profile in that maybe he regains his stuff, but I can&#8217;t bet on it due to his age. Besides, both his numbers and the scouting match each other, and that&#8217;s usually a recipe for accuracy. Hope for the best, but I wouldn&#8217;t expect anything better than a #4 starter.</p>
<p><strong>Reaction GIF Analysis</strong></p>
<p><img src="http://www.chadmoriyama.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/05/AJEllisClaytonKershawBook.gif" alt="" title="AJEllisClaytonKershawBook" width="425" height="250" class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-6990" /></p>
<p>&#8212;&#8211;</p>
<p><strong>Nick Punto</strong></p>
<p>The Dodgers are paying ~$2 million for one year and a month of his services. Accounting for inflation over the course of the contract, every win will come out to ~$4.5 million, so the Dodgers are paying for about 0.5 WAR or 0.4 WAR per year.</p>
<p>Don&#8217;t think I need a table for this one, as it&#8217;s purely to give the Dodgers a utility guy, I believe. Punto is at .200/.301/.272/.573 for 2012 and is projected to hit .229/.327/.271/.598 the rest of the way, which matches his age profile and career hitting ability. He&#8217;s above average on the bases and can play second, third, and short, where he grades out as a plus defender at every position.</p>
<p>His value on the bench is contingent on the Dodgers finding guys that can hit because he&#8217;s purely a defensive replacement or a spot starter. Still, he&#8217;s a solid utility guy because of his defense and versatility. He&#8217;ll be serviceable, which is all he&#8217;s being paid for, so it should be fine.</p>
<p><strong>Reaction GIF Analysis</strong></p>
<p><img src="http://www.chadmoriyama.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/08/ScottCaanYouAhNevermind.gif" alt="" title="ScottCaanYouAhNevermind" width="320" height="181" class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-9004" /></p>
<p>&#8212;&#8211;</p>
<p><strong>Rubby De La Rosa</strong></p>
<p>As a starter last year, he posted a 3.71 ERA/3.87 FIP/3.55 xFIP/3.85 SIERA with a 23.6 K% and a 12.2 BB% before succumbing to Tommy John surgery. After rehabbing for a year, he&#8217;s back and so is the velocity, so it seems the only thing lost was a year of development. Regardless, he has plus velocity and two potential swing-and-miss off-speed pitches in the change and slider. He&#8217;s rotation quality right now, and with command improvement, I don&#8217;t see why he couldn&#8217;t be a #2 or #3 rotation option.</p>
<p><strong>Reaction GIF Analysis</strong></p>
<p><img src="http://www.chadmoriyama.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/08/AngryPandaOffice.gif" alt="" title="AngryPandaOffice" width="500" height="346" class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-9003" /></p>
<p>&#8212;&#8211;</p>
<p><strong>Allen Webster</strong></p>
<p>After being demoted to the bullpen early in 2012, he may now be every bit the prospect that Rubby or <strong>Zach Lee</strong> is for the reasons Kevin Goldstein of Baseball Prospectus <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=17956" target="_blank">details here</a>:</p>
<blockquote><p>“It&#8217;s all there,” said a National League scout who was taken off his coverage to see the team. “When everything is going, he has three average-to-plus pitches and knows what to do with them.” The scout noted that Webster&#8217;s game has matured, as well. “He knows he has a really good—and potentially special—changeup, but he&#8217;s not over-relying on it anymore,” the scout explained. “It&#8217;s like he finally figured out that setting that pitch up with 92-94 mph heat is the best way to go about it, and his curveball has improved as well. He used to get over the ball and it wouldn&#8217;t finish, but now it&#8217;s breaking through the zone much better.”</p></blockquote>
<p>His ceiling seems to be in the #2 range as well, with #3 to #4 a more likely destination. He should test the waters at the MLB level this year, and could be ready in 2013.</p>
<p><strong>Reaction GIF Analysis</strong></p>
<p><img src="http://www.chadmoriyama.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/08/MichaelCeraMadOut.gif" alt="" title="MichaelCeraMadOut" width="350" height="174" class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-9001" /></p>
<p>&#8212;&#8211;</p>
<p><strong>Jerry Sands</strong></p>
<p>For his career, his line at AAA Albuquerque is .291/.363/.557/.921 &#8230; but it&#8217;s Albuquerque. Still, I like his chances of becoming a major league contributor, though I&#8217;m not sure he&#8217;ll be worthy of holding down a left field spot for a team like the Red Sox. There&#8217;s a shot he becomes a regular, but I see him as more of a platoon guy or temporary starter as opposed to a long-term fit there.</p>
<p><strong>Reaction GIF Analysis</strong></p>
<p><img src="http://www.chadmoriyama.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/06/DonMattinglyTiredOfThisShit.gif" alt="" title="DonMattinglyTiredOfThisShit" width="375" height="300" class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-7290" /></p>
<p>&#8212;&#8211;</p>
<p><strong>Ivan De Jesus</strong></p>
<p>A .301/.354/.416/.770 line at Albuquerque paired with his .231/.282/.277/.559 career line with the Dodgers doesn&#8217;t bode well for him. Furthermore, while he can play second, short, and third, he&#8217;s only above average at second, so I&#8217;m not sure he even fits as a utility guy.</p>
<p><strong>Reaction GIF Analysis</strong></p>
<p><img src="http://www.chadmoriyama.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/08/ChloeGraceMoretzHuhUhConfused.gif" alt="" title="ChloeGraceMoretzHuhUhConfused" width="239" height="248" class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-9005" /></p>
<p>&#8212;&#8211;</p>
<p><strong>James Loney</strong></p>
<p>He&#8217;s been worth 0 to -1 WAR this season while making $6.5 million and he&#8217;s a free agent to be. Bye.</p>
<p><strong>Reaction GIF Analysis</strong></p>
<p><img src="http://www.chadmoriyama.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/08/NASACelebration.gif" alt="" title="NASACelebration" width="450" height="255" class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-8998" /></p>
<p>=====</p>
<p>So the Dodgers are paying ~$272 million to get the four mentioned players from the Red Sox, and the <a href="https://twitter.com/MikeSilvermanBB/statuses/239350178644123648" target="_blank">Red Sox will be kicking in about ~$12 million back to the Dodgers</a>. So the team is paying for ~55 WAR of production, but is getting about ~43 WAR in value (~$212 million). As such, just by taking on the contracts alone, they figure to be looking at a surplus value around -$50 million. Then factor in the two top prospects, one solid prospect, a fringe prospect, and the corpse of James Loney, and you&#8217;re looking at quite a deficit to overcome, especially if any of them develop and hit their ceilings.</p>
<p>On the other hand, this undoubtedly makes the Dodgers better in the short-term, perhaps by as much as 7 or 8 wins in 2013. It should solidify the squad as a playoff favorite for this year and the next two years, perhaps even longer than that, depending on the decline phases of Crawford/Gonzalez.</p>
<p>While I understand that fans are excited by the prospects of that immediate improvement, I just have to wonder whether the Dodgers couldn&#8217;t do better if given ~$260 million to spend and the prospect package in question. Of the players received, only Adrian Gonzalez really fills a hole that couldn&#8217;t have been addressed in either 2013 or 2014. Then there&#8217;s the potential <a href="http://www.chadmoriyama.com/2012/08/dodgers-tv-rights-could-climb-to-8-5-billion-but-payroll-still-needs-to-be-managed/" target="_blank">problems with payroll flexibility</a> and the luxury tax that I&#8217;ve mentioned before. Also, as you can see through <strong>Jay Jaffe</strong>&#8216;s work <a href="http://mlb.si.com/2012/08/24/pending-blockbuster-trade-represents-risk-for-dodgers-makeover-for-red-sox/" target="_blank">here</a>, they&#8217;re really hemmed up in the short-term payroll-wise, and they now have $90 million sewn up in four players through 2017, which unfortunately doesn&#8217;t even include <strong>Clayton Kershaw</strong> yet.</p>
<p>As such, fans should surely enjoy the ride this year and in the immediate future, but it&#8217;s easy to justify significant concern over the long-term future of the roster, as all the risk in this deal is being taken by the Dodgers.</p>
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		<title>Dodgers Reportedly Acquire A-Gon, Beckett, Crawford, Punto &amp; Cash For Rubby, Webster, Sands, Loney, &amp; De Jesus</title>
		<link>http://www.chadmoriyama.com/2012/08/dodgers-reportedly-acquire-a-gon-beckett-crawford-and-punto-for-rubby-webster-sands-loney-de-jesus-cash/</link>
		<comments>http://www.chadmoriyama.com/2012/08/dodgers-reportedly-acquire-a-gon-beckett-crawford-and-punto-for-rubby-webster-sands-loney-de-jesus-cash/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sat, 25 Aug 2012 00:04:39 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Chad Moriyama</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Analysis]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Transactions]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Adrian Gonzalez]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Allen Webster]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Boston Red Sox]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Carl Crawford]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Ivan De Jesus]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[James Loney]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Jerry Sands]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Jon Paul Morosi]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Josh Beckett]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Los Angeles Dodgers]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Nick Punto]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Rubby De La Rosa]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.chadmoriyama.com/?p=8971</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[The Dodgers have acquired Adrian Gonzalez, Josh Beckett, Carl Crawford, Nick Punto, and Cash from the Red Sox for Rubby De La Rosa, Allen Webster, Jerry Sands, James Loney, and Ivan De Jesus, according to Jon Paul Morosi of Fox Sports. Source confirms @gordonedes report: #Dodgers &#8220;close&#8221; to obtaining Adrian Gonzalez, Josh Beckett, Carl Crawford, ...]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><img src="http://www.chadmoriyama.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/08/AdrianGonzalezDodgers-575x437.jpg" alt="" title="AdrianGonzalezDodgers" width="575" height="437" class="aligncenter size-large wp-image-8972" /></p>
<p>The <strong>Dodgers</strong> have acquired <strong>Adrian Gonzalez</strong>, <strong>Josh Beckett</strong>, <strong>Carl Crawford</strong>, <strong>Nick Punto</strong>, and Cash from the <strong>Red Sox</strong> for <strong>Rubby De La Rosa</strong>, <strong>Allen Webster</strong>, <strong>Jerry Sands</strong>, <strong>James Loney</strong>, and <strong>Ivan De Jesus</strong>, according to <strong>Jon Paul Morosi</strong> of <strong>Fox Sports</strong>.</p>
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-in-reply-to="239110628877422592"><p>Source confirms <a href="https://twitter.com/gordonedes"><s>@</s><b>gordonedes</b></a> report: <a href="https://twitter.com/search/?q=%23Dodgers"><s>#</s><b>Dodgers</b></a> &#8220;close&#8221; to obtaining Adrian Gonzalez, Josh Beckett, Carl Crawford, Nick Punto. <a href="https://twitter.com/mlbonfox"><s>@</s><b>mlbonfox</b></a></p>
<p>&mdash; Jon Morosi (@jonmorosi) <a href="https://twitter.com/jonmorosi/status/239117321875116033" data-datetime="2012-08-24T21:49:46+00:00">August 24, 2012</a></p></blockquote>
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p>Source: <a href="https://twitter.com/search/?q=%23Dodgers"><s>#</s><b>Dodgers</b></a> have agreed to send Allen Webster, James Loney, Jerry Sands, Ivan De Jesus, and Rubby De La Rosa to <a href="https://twitter.com/search/?q=%23RedSox"><s>#</s><b>RedSox</b></a>. <a href="https://twitter.com/mlbonfox"><s>@</s><b>mlbonfox</b></a></p>
<p>&mdash; Jon Morosi (@jonmorosi) <a href="https://twitter.com/jonmorosi/status/239146049904734210" data-datetime="2012-08-24T23:43:56+00:00">August 24, 2012</a></p></blockquote>
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p>Source: If <a href="https://twitter.com/search/?q=%23Dodgers"><s>#</s><b>Dodgers</b></a> &#8211; <a href="https://twitter.com/search/?q=%23RedSox"><s>#</s><b>RedSox</b></a> blockbuster occurs &#8212; and it is &#8220;close&#8221; &#8212; Boston would send some cash to LA. <a href="https://twitter.com/mlbonfox"><s>@</s><b>mlbonfox</b></a></p>
<p>&mdash; Jon Morosi (@jonmorosi) <a href="https://twitter.com/jonmorosi/status/239117602163679232" data-datetime="2012-08-24T21:50:53+00:00">August 24, 2012</a></p></blockquote>
<p>I&#8217;ll have a more detailed update on this trade later on tomorrow, but as of right now, I&#8217;m floored, honestly.</p>
<p>&#8212;&#8211;</p>
<p>My first impression though is to say that the trade isn&#8217;t for the better of the Dodgers overall. Yes, it makes them a better team immediately, but they likely now have limited financial flexibility for years to come. Ironically, that&#8217;s the reason the Red Sox did this deal to begin with.</p>
<p>Before calling me an idiot and asking me what the significance of that payroll worry is because the Dodgers now have money, maybe <a href="http://www.chadmoriyama.com/2012/08/dodgers-tv-rights-could-climb-to-8-5-billion-but-payroll-still-needs-to-be-managed/" target="_blank">read this first on the Dodgers payroll and the luxury tax</a>.</p>
<p>Additionally, the Dodgers are sending two top prospects to the Red Sox, both of which could contribute soon, in Rubby and Webster. Sands is certainly not a regular at this point, but he&#8217;s ready to try now, and he could develop into one. De Jesus could be a decent utility guy and Loney is whatever.</p>
<p>&#8212;&#8211;</p>
<p>The contract obligations the Dodgers are assuming total in excess of $250 million AFTER this year is over, and the team is giving up two of their best prospects and another solid one, so unless the cash coming back is significant, then this probably leaves the team better off in the short-term but worse off in the long-term.</p>
<p>Surely this drastically makes the team better now, but it also sets the Dodgers up to have an old, injury prone, and expensive roster going forward. I sure hope the Dodgers win now, because if they don&#8217;t, it could get ugly in a hurry.</p>
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