The Dodgers signed former Giants and Royals lefty Jonathan Sanchez to a minor-league deal, sending him to the Albuquerque Isotopes.

2:17pm: The Dodgers will sign Jonathan Sanchez to a minor league deal, according to Pedro Gomez of ESPN (on Twitter). The contract is pending a physical, and Sanchez is likely to report to Triple-A Albquerque. Sanchez is represented by the McNamara Baseball Group.

4:00pm: Sanchez has a July 1 opt-out date if he’s not on the Major League roster, according to Chris Cotillo of CLNS Radio (on Twitter). Mark Saxon of ESPN Los Angeles confirms the report (Twitter link).

Eric Stephen has more.

On the surface, this seems like a lottery ticket move by the Dodgers, looking to recapture some of the magic of the pitcher who threw a no-hitter and struck out over a batter per inning in six years with the Giants. Sanchez has been an absolute mess the past two seasons, as he is 0-12 in his last 18 starts with a 9.13 ERA, 58 walks, and 52 strikeouts in 71 innings. Sanchez was 0-3 with an 11.85 ERA in five appearances with the Pirates this season before his release on May 8.

Ned Colletti has always enjoyed picking pitchers up from the scrap heap, though it has almost always been relievers. Sanchez was a Giant though, so that hasn’t changed.

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Zack Greinke was activated from the DL on the May 15, with Josh Beckett being placed on the disabled list in a corresponding move.

The Dodgers activated Zack Greinke from the disabled list on Wednesday to start against the Nationals, but another starting pitcher took his place on the shelf. Josh Beckett was placed on the 15-day disabled list with a left groin strain to make room for Greinke, and becomes the sixth Dodgers starting pitcher to hit the disabled list this season.

The team is finally getting healthy, so a more accurate picture of the squad can begin to be gleaned as we move forward.

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Ted Lilly came off of the DL on Monday as well, with Matt Magill heading to AAA to open up a spot on the 25-man roster.

The Dodgers on Monday before their game against the Brewers activated Ted Lilly from the disabled list and, as expected, optioned Matt Magill to Triple-A Albuquerque. The next question is whether or not the Dodgers use Thursday’s off day to skip that spot in the rotation for now.

Lilly’s long-term role has yet to be determined. He’s starting Saturday and will likely get at least a couple of turns in the rotation before Beckett returns.

A couple of good starts and perhaps the Dodgers can deal him. Or at least Ned would trade for him. Too bad he’s the GM of the Dodgers.

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Juan Noriega was loaned to Monclova of the Mexican League, and Eliezer Alfonzo was sent to Mexico City.

The team also released catcher Selme Angulo.

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Greg Zakwin is the founder of the site Plaschke Thy Sweater Is Argyle. Follow him on Twitter @ArgyledPlaschke.

The discontent with the Dodgers was loud and clear after yesterday’s loss, and for good reason. The team is last in the NL West, have the sixth-worst record in the MLB, and are tied for the fourth-worst run differential in baseball.

It’s a horrible time to be the manager of the Dodgers right now, and we all know it, including Eric Stephen at True Blue LA, Mike Petriello at Mike Scioscia’s Tragic Illness, Jon Weisman at Dodger Thoughts, and even I’ve previously given my thoughts on Don Mattingly. However, the negativity certainly seems to have peaked after getting recently swept by the Braves in excruciating fashion, so the managerial issues merited a deeper look.

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On Don Mattingly’s Assumed Firing

For all the articles being written about Don Mattingly’s imminent demise, I haven’t actually seen anything of substance from the people that matter. Yes, he’s gotten variations of the dreaded vote of confidence, but all the talk has either been from people asking the upper management about his status or pure speculation by journalists, local and national alike.

Usually though, there’s some leak or sign that the higher-ups are unhappy with the job the manager’s doing and are about to drop the hammer. The running assumption seems to be that he’ll be fired today or sometime very soon, but that seems to be a lot of noise without much to actually indicate he’s going to be let go.

Obviously if things continue down this road he’ll be the fall guy no matter what, because that’s what managers and coaches exist for, but as of right now? I would have expected to hear at least one insider source say he’s close to done before anything final happens, so I’m not sure I see him being fired right away.

Then again, Craig Calcaterra of Hardball Talk seems to believe that Ken Rosenthal was teasing out inside info that Mattingly is about to be canned. So maybe I’m not reading between the lines enough, but either way, my point is that we’re all sort of guessing and speculating right now instead of going off anything reliable.

On A Need For “Fire” From The Manager

Many people — some who I respect and some who I don’t — seem to be of the belief that Mattingly isn’t right for the job because the team is flat and he’s not the yelling and screaming type. Judging by the complaints I’m fielding about Mattingly on Twitter, it’s the popular theory among fans as well.

Given the trend in what people seem to want out of a manager, it seems like a good time to remind everybody that yelling and screaming types generally don’t make the best authority figures, and the ones that do get appointed usually don’t last long. Give your boss at your job that personality and it’s not hard to figure out why it wears on people over time, and that rings especially true with the modern athlete, as they are even less responsive to the mad dictator personality.

I do understand why people want to visually see “fire” though, because the fans are mad and frustrated, so it incenses them even more to see managers or coaches or players not as mad as they are. But we go through this discussion every time there’s a struggling player who doesn’t go around throwing stuff daily like Andre Ethier used to after a strikeout. No, it doesn’t mean they don’t care or they don’t try, it just means everybody internalizes disappointment differently and goes about trying to solve their problems differently. After all, remember that Ethier was told to tone down the outbursts, specifically because the coaches thought it was affecting his play. Now people want a manager doing all that?

Besides, it’s ironic timing to be complaining about Mattingly being soft when just yesterday he publicly called out Kenley Jansen and Dee Gordon for what he perceived as mistakes by them. But those types of things seem to be widely glossed over because it doesn’t fit the narrative people have of Mattingly’s persona.

Even disregarding all the above, I can’t honestly believe anybody thinks that Mattingly yelling at the team will reset Ethier’s aging curve, or loosen up Matt Kemp‘s shoulder, or magically work to prevent injuries, so what people really want is making a move just for the sake of making a move. I just can’t see the sense in that.

On Potential Replacements

If Mattingly is going to be replaced, then a replacement needs to be found. Everybody would want a Joe Maddon, but that’s obviously impossible at this point. Also, names like Brad Ausmus (who I find interesting) and others outside the organization have been suggested (please no Mike Scioscia or Tony LaRussa), but I can’t recall the last time a manager got canned and the team hired a high-profile candidate outside the system to swoop in.

As such, I have to assume any replacement will come internally, specifically either Tim Wallach or Trey Hillman. Wallach is an interesting candidate, though I’m not exactly sure what he’ll do differently to make the team better. He has no MLB managerial experience, so if an authority figure is what the team is lacking, I fail to see how he would help change things. Then there’s Hillman, whose track record includes a glorious stint with the Royals where he made much of the same mistakes Mattingly is ripped for, plus his players rebelled against him for being a phony. Since that disastrous stint with the Royals, maybe he’s learned? Who knows, but if you want to stick with track record and what we know so far, he’s a downgrade if anything.

So again, if you can give me a Joe Maddon-type candidate, I’m all for replacing Mattingly right this second. Unfortunately, that guy is not available, and I have more confidence in Mattingly’s ability to resist bunting with a runner in scoring position than I do relying on Ned Colletti to find the next progressive, genius manager.

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I’m personally of the belief that a move doesn’t have to be made. That said, do I care a ton if Mattingly gets fired or not? No, not really. I’m not a fan of Mattingly’s decision-making at all, so the clubhouse aspect is the only thing that’s keeping me on board right now. However, any replacement, especially one found by Colletti, is unlikely to be much more progressive in his handling of just about everything. Therefore, what I really don’t get is people who are passionate and insistent that Mattingly gets canned, as if changing the manager will magically make everybody better at baseball.

The fact of the matter is that this team is not this bad, and — barring even more injuries — they’ll be better in the future, with or without Mattingly. Why? Because players win and lose games, and as the people on the field begin to regress to the mean, so will the team’s record.

So focus on the manager all you want, but the roster is what will get the team over .500 or to the playoffs or to the World Series, and that responsibility lies above the authority of any coach.

Yesterday, the Dodgers dealt Aaron Harang to the Rockies for catcher Ramon Hernandez and effectively cleared room in their bullpen for the return of Chad Billingsley on Wednesday.

The Dodgers on Saturday made official their trade of pitcher Aaron Harang and cash to the Rockies for catcher Ramon Hernandez.

Oddly enough though, the Rockies designated Harang for assignment immediately, so he’ll likely be elsewhere soon.

As for Hernandez himself, he’s certainly a more proven option than Tim Federowicz, though better is arguable. He’s about a league-average hitter (96 OPS+) for his career, but he’s 37 now and at age 36 he hit .217/.247/.353/.605 with the Rockies. He used to be a solid defender, but that has fallen off considerably with age and is probably a downgrade from T-Fed in that regard. Essentially, he has to hit to be useful, and the Dodgers are banking that he can regain his form, because he could be useful in relieving A.J. Ellis and providing much needed pop off the bench if he’s right.

More than anything though, this was about dumping Harang to clear room in the bullpen so that the return of Billingsley wouldn’t result in something like Paco Rodriguez having to be sent down. So from that perspective, even if Hernandez tanks, they still have T-Fed in the minors and it doesn’t affect the team much.

Money-wise, as you would imagine, the Dodgers are eating salary.

Counting Sunday, Mar. 31, six days of the 183-day season have lapsed. That means the Dodgers are on the hook for $3,095,082 of Hernandez’s salary, and the Rockies responsible for $6,770,492 for Harang, plus the $2 million buyout in 2014, though Jon Heyman of CBS Sports reported the Dodgers would send $4.25 million to Colorado.

So, instead of having $9 million guaranteed to Harang, the Dodgers will instead pay approximately $7,574,590 ($3,095,082 for Hernandez, $229,508 for Harang, and $4.25 million to Colorado). Subtract the major league salary that would have been paid to Tim Federowicz and the Dodgers save approximately $2 million and upgraded their catching depth.

So the team saves ~$2 million but will pay yet another player to perform elsewhere. It’s not a significant deal in terms of impact, but I get the feeling that when all is said and done about the pre-Richie Rich Ned Colletti era, boy are a lot of the contracts that were handed out going to look ridiculous in retrospect.

Opening Day for the Dodgers is Monday, and since Spring Training feels like it has taken forever, it’s about damn time. Given the closeness of the start of the season though, it’s a bit odd that there are so many question marks as to what will happen with the roster.

Every team has to deal with decisions on the 24th and 25th man, but it’s rare that a team with World Series hopes is still deciding on the rotation and the left side of the starting infield. Since the team’s starting SS is out for two months and there’s a surplus with eight starting pitchers, it’s anybody’s guess as to how it all shakes out.

Personally though, I have to figure the Opening Day 25-man roster looks something like what you see below.

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Starting Lineup

C – A.J. Ellis
1B – Adrian Gonzalez
2B – Mark Ellis
3B – Jerry Hairston Jr.
SS – Luis Cruz
LF – Carl Crawford
CF – Matt Kemp
RF – Andre Ethier

SS – Luis Cruz is a relatively easy choice for me at this spot. He plays solid defense at the position and is the best option available at the moment.

Yes, I’ve read the recent chatter about Justin Sellers getting this spot, which I suppose is possible. However, realistically I can only see that happening if they release Juan Uribe, or they trade both Aaron Harang and Chris Capuano AND go with 11 pitchers, or they roll with no real backup outfielder (Jerry Hairston Jr./Skip Schumaker).

My experience with Ned Colletti and Dodgers roster decision-making has led me to always go with the player who has experience, who is being paid by the team, and who is currently on the 40-man roster. Thus, no Sellers for me.

3B – Jerry Hairston Jr. and Skip Schumaker should platoon here. Hairston doesn’t actually have much of a split (.712 LHP/.694 RHP), but Schumaker does (.762 RHP/.521 LHP). If Don Mattingly plays his cards right here, there an off-chance the Dodgers don’t actually lose much except upside for the two months Hanley’s out, primarily because he plays terrible defense.

The alternative of Sellers’ .607 career MLB OPS, or his ~.700 career MILB OPS outside of the moon base in Albuquerque, is not appealing at all in lieu of an option like this. That logic HAS to win out, right? RIGHT?!

LF – Carl Crawford certainly looks on pace even though his already weak throwing arm looks pathetic right now. Still, he’s swinging a bat and nothing is wrong with his legs, so I can’t see him starting the year on the DL.

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Bench

B – Tim Federowicz
B – Nick Punto
B – Skip Schumaker
B – Juan Uribe
B – Alex Castellanos

DL – Hanley Ramirez

IF Bench – The trio of Nick Punto, Schumaker, and Uribe meet Colletti’s three standards, as reviewed above, so they’re basically locks to me. Tim Federowicz makes the team because they cut every other catcher in camp except Matt Wallach, and he’s not making the roster.

OF Bench – Why Alex Castellanos, right? Why over Elian Herrera and Alfredo Amezaga? Amezaga is simple, as he’s not on the 40-man. Herrera, who I don’t think is a quality player anyway, doesn’t provide the potential pop off the bench the Dodgers SORELY lack at the moment. Not putting Castellanos on the bench means the Dodgers would have four hitters with no power … and Uribe, who can’t hit at all.

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Starting Rotation

1 – Clayton Kershaw
2 – Zack Greinke
3 – Josh Beckett
4 – Chad Billingsley
5 – Hyun Jin Ryu

The order is jumbled because of injury and what not, but this is what was projected at the end of the off-season, and while it’s been an adventure to get here, it’s basically worked out how it was supposed to.

That said, given the way the schedule looks, it’s possible that Chad Billingsley or Zack Greinke could be put on the DL and have their turn skipped a couple times while they work into shape (Greinke) or recover from injury (Billingsley). Either way though, that would only buy the team 10 games or so to do something before a roster decision would be forced.

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Bullpen

CL – Brandon League
ST – Kenley Jansen
RP – Ronald Belisario
RP – J.P Howell
RP – Matt Guerrier
RP – Kevin Gregg
RP – Aaron Harang

DL – Scott Elbert
DL – Ted Lilly

Lefty Reliever – Sorry Paco Rodriguez, you might be better than two, three, or even four pitchers in the bullpen, but you have options, so bye bye.

Veteran Reliever – Kevin Gregg has a 0.87 ERA over 10.1 IP this spring, while Peter Moylan is at a 7.56 ERA in 8.1 IP. Colletti must have a NRI veteran reliever on the team, so it is Gregg. Plus, he has closing experience, which automatically makes him the best!

Starter Turned Reliever – Ted Lilly has to end up on the DL because he looks fucking terrible. Don’t whine to me about language. It is what it is.

What happened to Chris Capuano? I think he gets traded and soon. I picked him to get dealt over Aaron Harang because he’s a better pitcher and more valuable to teams. That said, there’s an extremely compelling case for Capuano to be in the pen over Harang. It consists of Capuano saying that he can come out of the pen, while Mattingly said he sees Harang as a starter only. I get that, but unless the Dodgers want to get nothing in return, I can’t see why a team would settle for Harang when they could have Capuano, especially given their handedness.

Either way, I’m confident something of significance happens with a trade, because if not, I’m unsure how the pen would shake out unless they carry 13 pitchers. As mentioned earlier, an option would be putting Bills or Greinke on the DL, but that’s a stop-gap solution at best. I suppose Gregg could be let go, but we all know that would burn Ned’s soul, so I figure one of the two healthy excess starters won’t be a Dodger for long.

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Now we just wait for the announcement that Harang has been traded, Gregg has been cut, and Sellers will start at SS because … of course it would happen.

The 2013 projection for the Dodgers from Dan Szymborski‘s ZiPS system was released last week, and given that it’s probably my favorite forecasting tool, it’s worth a look to see how the team fared.

Forecasting is not a complete science, obviously, and I’ll address some of the potential pitfalls as we go along, but it’s better to use objective tools like these than the hopes/dreams of fans or the bitterness/wishes of haters.

To start us off, how does the team fare, generally speaking? A solid playoff contender, for sure, but a super team? Doesn’t seem likely.

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The Field Players

Despite all the hype over the recent acquisitions, the key cogs in this machine are still Clayton Kershaw and Matt Kemp. It’s a promising sign then, that Kemp projects at a 144 OPS+ and the system has confidence in him continuing to put up offensive numbers in the ~.900 OPS range. His defense in center still lags below average, but his bat more than makes up for it. His playing time projection has dropped due to his injury woes last season, and quite frankly, it’s hard to fault it for that. Regardless, he still figures to be the most valuable field player on the team.

Adrian Gonzalez is slated to be another bright spot, as ZiPS pegs him to bounceback a bit, though not as much as some want, clocking in at an ~.830 OPS/128 OPS+. That would still be his lowest OPS+ since 2008 (besides 2012, of course), but it’s a marked improvement considering his age and negatively trending skills. A-Gon compensates for that lagging bat a bit by putting up plus defense almost worth a win by itself. Hanley Ramirez factors in as yet another bounceback candidate, projecting at a 115 OPS+, which is an upgrade over last year’s 106 and is closer to his pre-2011 production. Defensively, even his horribad -8 run defensive rating is optimistic to me, as he was truly terrible with the glove last year. Given that I already wanted to barf seeing him trying to turn a double play in 2012, I wouldn’t be surprised at all to see him put up horrid defensive numbers after basically not playing the position all of spring.

Unfortunately, that’s where a lot of the offensive optimism ends. Luis Cruz checks in at 84 OPS+ (106 last year), which will anger many fans, but is completely reasonable given the track record. He remains valuable through plus defense, though given the sample size, there’s reason to be skeptical there as well. A.J. Ellis at 96 OPS+ (118) is another depressing but completely logical projection, as evidenced by everybody’s surprise in 2012 at his potent bat. Andre Ethier at 112 OPS+ (123) is hard to figure for me, because he has been consistently putting up ~120 OPS+ seasons even if it has come down from the ~130 OPS+ range two years ago. I suppose the projection system thinks he’ll get old in a hurry … or maybe it just thinks he’ll face an inordinately high amount of lefties. Mark Ellis at 81 OPS+ (93) shouldn’t be much of a surprise considering he’s 36 and put up an 80 OPS+ at Coors Field in 2011.

The last guy of the starters is Carl Crawford, who is the enigma of the 2013 season. He checks in at 104, which is notable because it’s basically his career OPS+ and it’s about what he did in limited time in 2012 over in Boston. That’s of particular note for me, because what he did in Boston in 2012 can be attributed to a mechanical fix that I pointed out in an article for Baseball Prospectus. Understandably, his playing time checks in low, but if he can produce like he did in 2012 but over a whole season, the Dodgers will be much better for it.

Overall, after fixing the playing time of A.J., adjusting Ethier’s offense up a bit, and adjusting Hanley’s defense down a bit, the starting lineup totaled about 22 WAR.

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The Bench & The Prospects

Assuming a bench of Tim Federowicz, Scott Van Slyke or Alex Castellanos, Jerry Hairston Jr., Nick Punto, and Skip Schumaker, we’re looking at around 3 WAR here after playing time is adjusted back to realistic bench levels. I’m guessing Alfredo Amezaga or Tony Gwynn Jr. work their way in somehow, but a five-man bench seems likely initially if the Dodgers can’t deal multiple pitchers before the season starts. Neither player would affect the WAR projection much though.

Honestly? I have to hope the Dodgers do something to improve the bench, because the current configuration looks rather mediocre, and the other options are keeping Juan Uribe and/or Elian Herrera. Yuck.

The good news is that Joc Pederson, T-Fed, SVS, and Castle are projected to be solid at the MLB level, though it sees Dee Gordon basically languishing behind.

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The Rotation

Clayton Kershaw is simply a beast, and he figures to check in with a 75 FIP-. This might seem high considering his 2011 and 2012 ERA- figures of 63 and 67, respectively, but when you consider that Felix Hernandez clocks in at 78 FIP- for 2013, you get the picture.

What might surprise is how close new acquisition Zack Greinke comes in behind him, as he figures to put up an FIP- of 81. Granted, he has always projected favorably, as his career FIP- is 80, while his career ERA- is 88, but even adjusting slightly for that, there’s a definite case there for the best 1-2 punch in the majors.

Unfortunately, this is where it gets murky, as Chad Billingsley has the stuff to be the #3, but if I were a betting man, I would bet his elbow implodes before July. He projects at 92 FIP-, which would put him around last year’s performance, which was his arguably his best season since 2008. However, given the nature of his injury and its history in the league, you can basically never rely on him to stay healthy again until he has Tommy John surgery.

Next in the pecking order are Josh Beckett, who comes in below-average at 103, and foreign import Hyun Jin Ryu, who comes in well below-average at 116. As mentioned before, the scouting reports for Beckett match this projection, as he’s no longer a front-line starter due to his decrease in velocity. However, if he can manage to learn to pitch a bit more, he still has the curve to perhaps slot in as a #3 more than a #4. Ryu is a case where I would take any projection with a mound of salt, because there’s hardly anything to base objective projections on. Personally, I don’t think Ryu has the stuff to be a #2, nor do I think he’ll be a #3 on a team with a $250 million payroll, but he should slot in comfortably in the back-end of the rotation for years. I would project something slightly below-average for 2013 and then hope for better.

The rotation is a strong point because it has both arguably the best 1-2 punch in the majors and depth, with Chris Capuano (108 FIP-) and Aaron Harang (114 FIP) presumably traded for upgrades (or maybe kept somehow?), and it checks in at about 17 WAR.

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The Bullpen & The Prospects

As of right now, I’m assuming a bullpen of Brandon League, Kenley Jansen, Ronald Belisario, Javy Guerra, Matt Guerrier, J.P. Howell, and Ted Lilly.

Jansen is the best of the bunch (63 FIP-) and League projects a distant second (92 FIP-), but Belisario has the most upside in these projections (101 FIP-). After that, Guerra, Guerrier, and Howell are all around replacement level. Lilly projects as a league-average pitcher, assuming he’s healthy, which would be a boon to a team that has a ticking time bomb in the rotation.

As far as prospects go, ZiPS thinks Chris Reed could be a replacement-level fill-in right now, but Zach Lee, Matt Magill, and Garrett Gould need more seasoning. And for all of you who have Stephen Fife wet dreams (yes, you’re out there), he projects at a 4.91 FIP, so keep it in your pants.

Speaking of replacement level, that especially applies to the Dodgers bullpen because of Shawn Tolleson, Scott Elbert, Steven Ames, and Paco Rodriguez, so the 4 WAR projection for this pen figures to be solid.

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Team Projection

A replacement-level team figures to win 43 games, and the team with the lowest amount of wins to get into the playoffs last year was the Cardinals at 88 wins, so 42 WAR puts you in the contender range and 45 WAR makes you viable, while 50 WAR will generally make a team a safe bet to be in the postseason. The Dodgers total 46 WAR, which puts them well within the playoff hunt: good but not great.

The Dodgers basically project neck-and-neck with the rival Giants, while the D-Backs lag behind a bit by maybe a half dozen wins or so, but they’re well within striking distance as well.

So make no mistake, the Dodgers recent spending habits did not make them an elite team, as the money simply duct-taped over both a flawed team and farm system depleted by Frank McCourt‘s ownership and Ned Colletti‘s questionable decisions. But that’s not to denigrate the job the new owners have done, as they turned the franchise into a legitimate playoff contender seemingly overnight, which is still saying a lot about what money can do.

Granted, “we gave you a team that has the chance to make the playoffs” is not what fans want to hear, but it’s an acceptable scenario as they lay the foundation to rebuild the franchise the correct way in their own minds. The 2013 projections might not reflect world-beaters like most seem to expect, but it’s a projection based on historical trends rather than hopes and dreams.

The 2013 Dodgers are indeed a team with a lot of upside, and if everything breaks correctly, they could very well end up being one of the best teams in the league, but they also carry a ton of inherent age and injury risk, which is why the projections come in understandably conservative. Either way, if nothing else, this team figures to be never boring.

Dodgers fans have assumed for a while now that 2013 would determine how much longer Don Mattingly would be with the club (maybe Ned Colletti as well), and now that’s all but official.

Last fall, Mattingly politely asked the club to exercise its one-year option before this final year of his contract. The Dodgers politely refused. He will thus begin the summer as a lame duck, except nothing about Donnie Baseball is ever lame, so let’s just say he will be paddling upstream in a situation that could get absolutely daffy.

“It was a 30-second conversation about the option, they said that wasn’t the plan for me or my coaches, it was a moot point, and I’m fine with that,” Mattingly said in a phone interview. “But you would have liked for them to pick up the extensions so the players could be shown confidence. You never want it to be like, after a couple of bad games, people are saying, ‘Oh, are they gonna change managers now?”

Not all that surprising since it was only late in 2012 that he was even confirmed to be returning in 2013, but the way the quotes were phrased, they might as well have told him directly, “Win the World Series or you’re gone, thanks.”

It makes sense, of course, because with a payroll well north of $200 million, not making it deep in the playoffs would be a huge disappointment in relation to fan expectations, and the ownership/front office are simply planning ahead by having a pre-determined fall guy to protect themselves if things go awry.

The Dodgers have invited 12 players to their Winter Development Camp, which, after operating for its first five years of existence at Dodger Stadium, will move to Camelback Ranch due to construction at Chavez Ravine.

Zach Lee, Joc Pederson, Chris Reed, Onelki Garcia, Paco Rodriguez, Chris Withrow, Steven Ames, Matt Magill, Tim Federowicz, Matt Wallach, and newcomers Jeremy Moore and Rob Rasmussen makeup the 12 players selected by the organization.

Though Yasiel Puig was originally scheduled to participate in the camp, the Dodgers have opted to leave him with his Puerto Rican Winter League team, which is in the midst of a playoff run.

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The Dodgers signed former Rays lefty J.P. Howell to a one-year, $2.75 million deal with incentives. Chad has details and analysis here.

I’m just glad the deal is for one year, especially given Ned Colletti‘s proclivity to give veteran bullpen guys long-term deals.

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Jeremy Moore is one of five players to recently sign a minor-league deal with the club. Fabio Castro, Wilmin Rodriguez, Omar Luna, and Rusty Ryal round out the signings. Also, Scott Van Slyke was re-signed after being outrighted.

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Alfredo Amezaga has signed his second minor-league deal with the Dodgers and has been invited to Spring Training. He was an NRI to Spring Training in 2010 as well.

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Greg Zakwin is the founder of the site Plaschke Thy Sweater Is Argyle. Follow him on Twitter @ArgyledPlaschke.

So what’s next for the 2012-2013 off-season champion Dodgers?

Danny Knobler says Anibal Sanchez has been discussed, but Buster Olney says the Dodgers aren’t going to be signing any more pitchers.

As far as Sanchez goes, I’m inclined to believe Olney, because while I believe the team’s budget is comically high, I do believe they have one and that it would simply be overkill to get Sanchez.

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On the Chris Capuano/Aaron Harang/Ted Lilly trade front, Buster Olney says the Pirates have talked to the Dodgers about Capuano.

Despite the fact that the trio aren’t all that valuable to the Dodgers anymore, both Capuano and Harang have value to teams with stricter payrolls, because at the price free-agent starters are going for, a couple 2-3 WAR guys with 6 or 7 million dollar price tags are going to be a worthwhile investment.

I’ve had trouble gauging potential return though, because we’ve never really seen Ned Colletti trade for minor-leaguers in recent years. Either way, hopefully Logan White and De Jon Watson are in charge of that aspect of these trades.

Then again, Buster Olney says the Dodgers are interested in Joel Hanrahan, so that could be an option as well. If that’s the extent of the deal, I see no reason why the Pirates would hesitate, honestly. Clear win for them.

The tide has shifted completely in the Zack Greinke sweepstakes with sources now almost universally agreeing that the Rangers are the favorites.

Ken Rosenthal and Jon Paul Morosi speculate that their push for Justin Upton is born out of confidence regarding Greinke.

The Rangers’ fervent push for Upton, according to one rival executive, is an indication of their confidence in landing Greinke, who also is being pursued by the Los Angeles Dodgers.

Later, on Twitter, Rosenthal said that the Dodgers are considering pulling out of Greinke negotiations all together.

Mark Saxon got quotes from Ned Colletti expressing pessimism.

Asked if he was on the “doorstep” of acquiring Greinke, Dodgers general manager Ned Colletti said: “We’re not on the front lawn. … We’re barely out of the car at the curb. It’s better than driving around the neighborhood looking for the house. We know where the house is located. We just can’t seem to get out of the car.”

The Dodgers began negotiations with Greinke’s agent, Casey Close, in Nashville, but it doesn’t appear that they have made a formal offer to this point. Speculation is that Greinke could command a record deal for a right-hander — in the six-year, $150 million range.

Given the Dodgers’ deep pockets, it’s unlikely they would be outbid for Greinke, so it’s possible he prefers to pitch in another city. Reports indicated he was leaning toward the Texas Rangers.

Jon Heyman relays much of the same sentiment.

Dodgers people have begun to sound a bit less optimistic within the last day or so about their pursuit of star free-agent pitcher Zack Greinke. And although there’s no evidence anything is close or decided in Texas’ favor, a couple of Dodgers people even suggested that they are beginning to wonder whether Greinke may simply prefer the Rangers.

Just piling on at this point, Jim Bowden says Greinke is impressed with the Rangers organization.

A source has told me that Greinke was blown away by Nolan Ryan and Rangers Front Office..loves the ML team, prospects and chances to Win WS

So yeah, it’s safe to say that the momentum has shifted from the Dodgers to the Rangers for whatever reason, but whether this remains legit or is being fed to the press in order to drive up prices, or whatever else, is still unknown.

Like many of you, I’m just getting tired of the saga already because it holds up all of free agency, but then again, nobody said the rest have to wait for Greinke. He’s free to do things at his own pace if he so chooses, especially considering that he’s looking at committing the next 6 to 8 years of his life to a location.

—–

The suitors for Dee Gordon now total four, with the Braves and the Phillies now apparently in as well, according to Jayson Stark.

#Indians, #Mariners, #Braves & #Phillies among teams I heard asked #Dodgers about Dee Gordon. It appears all but Seat would try him in OF.

Not seeing what the return would be from those teams, so there must be other things at work in the background here if this trade were to happen.

Honestly though, I’m not seeing the upside in moving him to the outfield. The potential for him to be an MLB regular contributor came with the value of him playing shortstop, where his bat could be decidedly below average but he could still have value. In center or, even worse, left or right, he would basically be relegated to the upside of a poor man’s Juan Pierre. Say what you want about Pierre, but Gordon’s talent with the bat isn’t anywhere close to Pierre’s right now, and I’m not sure it’ll ever get there.

—–

Confirming a previous rumor, it was reiterated that the Dodgers have interest in Skip Schumaker.

The Dodgers and Twins are among the teams that have some level of interest in Cardinals bench player Skip Schumaker, Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reports.

I gave my thoughts on him the first time his name came up.

The Dodgers made an offer to Hyun Jin Ryu, but it was rejected by Scott Boras, according to Ned Colletti.

The Dodgers made a long-term offer to Korean pitcher Ryu Hyun-jin on Tuesday, but it was rejected by agent Scott Boras.

“Predictably, it fell a tad short,” said general manager Ned Colletti.

The Dodgers have until Sunday to sign Ryu or they lose exclusive negotiating rights and their $25.7 million posting fee is refunded.

“We’re debating our next step,” said Colletti. “I don’t believe we’re close right now.”

As I said yesterday, I still think this is all posturing by both sides to get the best deal possible.

For his part, Boras later clarified the situation to Dylan Hernandez.

[Updated at 5:35 p.m.: Ryu's agent, Scott Boras, said he presented the Dodgers with a counteroffer. "We exchanged offers, and negotiations continue," Boras said.]

Boras, said his client should be compensated like a major league No. 3 starter. So, presumably, he’s looking for something in the $50-million range. [Updated at 9:45 p.m.: This estimate was high, according to a person familiar with the discussions.]

The reasons for the Dodgers wanting to wait should be obvious, because if they sign Zack Greinke and trade for James Shields or something of the sort, then their leverage in negotiations with Ryu becomes extremely one-sided.

For now? Just have to wait it out.

—–

Speaking of Greinke, the Dodgers and Rangers are apparently in a bidding war of sorts, according to Jon Heyman.

The Dodgers have been viewed as a fairly clear favorite for Greinke, but Texas is showing signs of determination, according to major-league sources.

The Dodgers are seen as having an almost unlimited payroll, but people familiar with the happenings now suggest the derby could go either way. Not many teams could hope to go dollar-for-dollar against the Dodgers, but the Rangers are trying to do just that.

The bidding is said by major-league officials to be “quite high” now, with two people pegging the dollar amount at about $160 million. And that’s with the deal not done yet. There seems an extreme likelhood now that Greinke will not only set a record for righthanded pitcher but for any pitcher, which is currently held by CC Sabathia, who signed for $161 million and seven years with the Yankees.

Some have suggested they could even see the Greinke deal reaching toward the $175-million mark.

This situation, however, could be severely impacted by the Rangers negotiations with Josh Hamilton, according to Danny Knobler, as they probably won’t sign both.

But one scenario they don’t see happening, according to sources, is a double free-agent signing of both Greinke and Hamilton.

And they certainly seem on pace to sign one or the other, according to Ken Rosenthal.

For his part, Jon Paul Morosi is of the belief that the Dodgers are the clear favorite, while Bill Shaikin adds that this drama may not be over by the time the Winter Meetings conclude.

—–

Connected to Greinke in a way, the Dodgers are apparently shopping Chris Capuano and Aaron Harang to whoever.

One exec says “Dodgers shopping Capuano and Harang around lobby. Greinke and Rhu, or Greinke and Sanchez or Dempster?”

#Dodgers becoming aggressive in shopping Harang and Capuano, source says. Could be a sign of confidence in landing Zack Greinke. @MLBONFOX

I doubt either of them would be hard to deal at any point in the off-season. Both are on short-term deals, the Dodgers could eat money if necessary, and the return demands probably won’t be significant.

—–

COMEDY BREAK

The Dodgers are running around shopping Juan Uribe!

One of the agendas the Dodgers are pushing aggressively in the lobby is to find a trade partner to take utility infielder Juan Uribe. Needless to say, the Dodgers are garnering little interest unless they’re willing to pay his entire contract. Uribe, who has batted .199 the past two seasons combined, is entering the final year of a three-year, $21 million contract.

What a disaster.

Asked an MLB official if #Dodgers might be able to interest #Yankees in Juan Uribe with A-Rod injured. The guy chuckled.

— Bill Shaikin (@BillShaikin) December 4, 2012

It’s become a punchline, as it should, really.

—–

Dee Gordon appears to be a popular target for teams, including the Mariners.

The Dodgers are fielding tons of inquiries on shortstop Dee Gordon, tweets Scott Miller of CBS Sports, though they’re not looking to deal him. The Mariners are among the teams hitting the Dodgers hard on Gordon, tweets Miller.

I’ve given my thoughts on Dee previously, though I’m not sure what the Mariners have that the Dodgers want.

No, it’s not Felix Hernandez. Stop.

I’m thinking more along the lines of Kyle Seager, Corey Seager‘s older brother. The Mariners have Alex Liddi and Vinnie Catricala.

—–

Perhaps the R.A. Dickey rumors have some legs after all?

Hearing Dodgers thinking big, have strong interest in Dickey even if they sign Grienke. But they don’t have good young OF to trade.

— John Harper (@NYDNHarper) December 4, 2012

Source says Mets could get speedy SS Dee Gordon and top pitching prospect Zach Lee from Dodgers for Dickey. But that doesn’t help OF.

— John Harper (@NYDNHarper) December 4, 2012

That would be … a lot for a rental.

Still not sure I buy the interest as legit either. Not yet, at least.

—–

In interest of filling out their bench, the Dodgers are apparently interested in trading for Skip Schumaker, according to Danny Knobler.

He plays second, left field, center field, and right field, so there’s versatility there, but he’s a terrible defender at second, a bad one in center, and just solid-average in the corners. Over the last three seasons, since he turned 30, he’s had an OPS+ of 88.

Not so thrilled, really.

—–

Oh, and Colletti shot down those rumors from yesterday about them seeking starters at SS/3B. But there’s no reason to think he’s being truthful either.

The Dodgers will offer Zack Greinke the most money to sign, according to Jon Heyman, because they have no concept of a budget.

The Dodgers have an interesting strategy that’s been employed only rarely: Sign the best, no matter the cost.

“They are like theSteinrenner Yankees of the ’70s,” one competing GM said.

Rival executives are beginning to wonder of there’s any chance to compete with the Dodgers in the Zack Greinke sweepstakes. Greinke is said by friends to be an unusual free agent who values comfort and winning right up there with money, so some teams will hang in there with a bit of hope.

But it seems pretty clear who is going to offer Greinke the biggest deal at this point. The Dodgers seem determined to sign him, no matter the cost. As Dodgers president Stan Kasten said, “We are the opposite of the mystery team.”

Asked about their budget, one Dodgers person responded on Monday, “What budget?”

Some wonder whether it might be wise to sign up Clayton Kershaw first, thus in effect capping Greinke’s final price. But one rival exec said, he believes the Dodgers “just don’t care” how much things cost.

Greinke is a unique free agent in the sense that it’s believable that he could make his decision based on comfort over sheer money. Though if the combination of staying in Los Angeles and an offer with the most money comes across the table, I find it hard to believe he’ll turn that down.

This goes counter to what Joel Sherman reports though, as he says the Rangers have every intention of spending right along side the Dodgers on Greinke.

Heard #Rangers right there with #Dodgers in willingness to spend on Greinke, #Nationals still talking #Angels all but fallen out at these $$

— Joel Sherman (@Joelsherman1) December 3, 2012

Could make things interesting since they also have television money to spend.

The sleeper in all of this is still the Nationals, who I think have a lot more money than people would expect.

—–

Ned Colletti has said that if things continue the way they are, Hyun Jin Ryu is unlikely to be signed.

#Dodgers GM Ned Colletti said talks with Ryu Hyun-jin are moving slowly.

— Dylan Hernandez (@dylanohernandez) December 3, 2012

Colletti: At this pace, a deal with Ryu won’t get done.

— Dylan Hernandez (@dylanohernandez) December 3, 2012

In response to this, Scott Boras trolled back, saying Ryu could end up in Japan.

South Korean left-hander Ryu Hyun-jin could pitch in Japan next season if he doesn’t sign with the Dodgers, his agent said Tuesday.

“Japan is a very viable option for him,” said Scott Boras, who disputed the notion that his client doesn’t have any leverage in his negotiations with the Dodgers.

Never a dull moment with Boras, man.

The deadline is 5 PM on Sunday, so there’s still quite a bit of time, and we knew from before that the Dodgers probably preferred to wait until after the Winter Meetings were over to finalize a deal with him. That makes sense, especially in light of news that they’re involved on a whole mess of players at the moment.

At the end of the day though, I have a difficult time believing that a deal with Ryu won’t get done, especially given the team’s alleged lack of financial restrictions.

—–

The Dodgers are talking with a whole bunch of teams in regards to trades, according to Colletti.

#Dodgers are talking to 10-12 teams about potential trades, GM Ned Colletti said.

— Dylan Hernandez (@dylanohernandez) December 4, 2012

Ken Gurnick says this includes the Mets and R.A. Dickey (along with at least seven other teams), while Molly Knight adds that the Rays and James Shields are involved. Jon Heyman adds that the Rays are increasingly likely to deal a starter and that the suitors include the Dodgers, Rangers, and Nationals.

I’m not sure how legit that Dickey interest is, but I have been hearing about the Dodgers being in on Shields a lot, so it seems that would be their primary target. Wouldn’t be surprised at all to see that rumor escalate today.

—–

As for the fourth outfielder issue, Ken Gurnick has mentioned that Nate Schierholtz is a target.

One non-tendered player the Dodgers have some interest in is outfielder Nate Schierholtz, cut loose last week by the Phillies, who acquired him from the Giants in the Hunter Pence trade.

Schierholtz doesn’t play center, is left-handed, and had a .698 OPS last year.

I know he has hit righties well over the last two years, but if you look at the larger sample size of his career, there’s like a 30 point OPS difference in his platoon split, which hardly makes him a platoon weapon.

I would hope they can do better.

—–

Rafael Ynoa is generating interest in regards to the Rule 5 Draft, which doesn’t surprise me.

Hearing some Rule 5 buzz on #Dodgers infielder Rafael Ynoa.

— Jon Morosi (@jonmorosi) December 3, 2012

I would give him a ceiling of a utility player, but I think there’s a chance he could stick all year, so why wouldn’t a team with 40-man roster space give him a shot now? Coming off his red-hot AFL, there’s probably no better time.

The Dodgers promoted a number of front office personnel, most notably future GMs (of the Dodgers, I hope) Logan White and De Jon Watson. White will now serve as Vice President Of Scouting, while Watson takes on the role of Vice President Of Player Development.

—–

Via Eric Stephen, Alfredo Silverio and Ozzie Martinez have signed minor-league contracts and received invites to Spring Training.

—–

Bill Shaikin reports, per Ned Colletti, that Yasiel Puig will most likely begin the 2013 campaign with AA Chattanooga.

—–

And now we wait for the moves of the Winter Meetings.

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Greg Zakwin is the founder of the site Plaschke Thy Sweater Is Argyle. Follow him on Twitter @ArgyledPlaschke.

Kenley Jansen

Kenley Jansen entered 2012 as the set-up man with elite stuff, freed up to face the opponents’ best hitters should they be due up before the ninth inning. It was the perfect scenario, considering the closer role is a vastly overrated entity. Though Jansen was slotted correctly, he quickly found himself as the closer following some early struggles in that role by Javy Guerra.

Jansen closed 2012 with his third-straight dominant season, posting a 2.40 FIP and 1.81 SIERA while whiffing a magnificent 13.71/9 IP. He appeared in a career-high 65 games and 65 innings, and though he allowed a few more long-balls (six homers after three in 2011 and none in 2010), he more importantly cut down impressively on his free passes for a third consecutive campaign (5.00/4.36/3.05 per nine innings). Also of note is his continued ability to induce infield popups, which has always been excellent (16% in 2010 & 10.9% in 2011), as he reached a new career best in 2012 (19.4 IFFB%).

To put it another way, as infield popups are essentially as effective as strikeouts, Jansen “whiffed” roughly 60% of the hitters he faced in 2012. That is insane, obviously.

Though all has been well from a between-the-lines perspective, Jansen has seen his short career put in jeopardy multiple times due to a heart ailment that has afflicted him for parts of the 2011 regular season, Spring Training of 2012, and most recently the 2012 regular season. While Jansen has thankfully been able to return from all three bouts, the irregular heartbeat has been recurring, which is troublesome for his health and career prospects.

Jansen and the Dodgers have taken action though, as Kenley recently underwent heart surgery to correct the problem. All seems well thus far, as no complications from the surgery have been revealed, and all reports indicate he’ll be ready to go for 2013. He’ll recuperate for at least three months prior to resuming baseball activities, and with his electric stuff, fantastic ability to get hitters to swing-and-miss, and three straight seasons of improving WAR (1.1/1.3/1.9), the sky is the limit for the former backstop as he continues to refine his new craft.

Brandon League

Acquired for Leon Landry and Logan Bawcom, Brandon League arrived having been stripped of his closer duties in Seattle. His 2012 with the Mariners was a season typical of your average middle reliever, as League was fanning only 5.44 per nine while walking far too many (3.83/9 IP), and had a 3.45 FIP and 4.43 SIERA. I was against the trade when it happened and League did nothing to assuage my mind in his first few outings, as he was charged with six earned runs through his first seven games with Los Angeles.

League rebounded to end 2012 strongly though, allowing one earned run from August 21 on. His strikeout rate ticked up in LA to 8.89/9 IP, the highest it had been since 2009, though he walked even more at 4.61/9
IP. His new-found success was attributed to mechanical flaws that were corrected by Rick Honeycutt and his staff.

Whether that’s true and whether his success carries over into the future or not, the 29-year-old heads into free agency banking that teams will be looking at his recent performance over his career track record that consists of 6.71 K/9 IP, 3.10 BB/9 IP, a 3.81 FIP, and a WAR that’s eclipsed 1.0 twice.

Ronald Belisario

After a time spent pretending to be Tony Montana, Ronald Belisario returned to the States and MLB in 2012. Following a 25-game suspension for violating baseball’s drug policy, Belisario made his season debut in early May and would go on to appear in a bullpen-high 68 games and 71 innings.

Belisario posted a 3.09 FIP and 2.80 SIERA, and after starting the year out-pitching his peripherals and shiny ERA, had a very good season after his year off. He fanned just shy of a batter per inning while walking 3.68 per nine and inducing a mess of ground balls (64.5 GB%), which resulted in just three homers allowed in ’12.

Belisario, after all of his troubles, is line for a nice raise from the $480,000 he made on a one-year deal in 2012. He qualified for Super Two status and is arbitration eligible, and he will be an integral part of the pen in 2013.

Javy Guerra

Javy Guerra entered 2012 as the Dodgers closer, though not the most talented reliever on the team, which is perfectly fine and is actually my preferred method of bullpen management. Following a rocky start and a liner to the head, Guerra was removed in favor of Jansen in early May.

After allowing eight earned runs in his first 14 games, which included three blown saves and a pair of losses, Guerra settled down before succumbing to a knee injury that ended his season in early September.

Though Guerra’s season is largely viewed as a failure by many, his 2012 was, in actuality, little different from his 2011 season. His strikeout rate increased (7.33/7.40), his HR/9 IP rate improved (0.39/0.20), and his FIP (3.30/3.34) and WAR remained stable (0.9/0.8).

Guerra’s “struggles” were two-fold. First, the self-inflicted portion: Guerra walked too many guys in 2012, as his BB/9 IP jumped from a high 3.47 to a terrible 4.60 per nine. That must be corrected for Javy to see more success. Second, his BABIP increased to .321 from .261. In other words, after getting lucky in 2011, 2012 saw that luck shift entirely the other way. There is almost certainly a happy medium, and in that place, Guerra is a solid contributor to the pen as a middle reliever.

Scott Elbert

After an excellent 2011 that ended with a new established role in the pen, Scott Elbert finished 2012 on the DL with an elbow injury that felled him from late August on. I wouldn’t be shocked if the elbow bothered him all year, as his numbers fell across the board.

Elbert struck out less per nine (9.18/7.99), gave up more homers (0.27/0.83), and saw a significant drop in FIP (2.73/3.80) and SIERA (3.23/3.76). The lefty also uncharacteristically struggled against his fellow southpaws in comparison with his 2011 success (.271/.342/.342/.684 after a .191/.267/.227/. 494 slash line the year before).

With Randy Choate a possibility to return if he and the club share a mutual interest, and young Paco Rodriguez emerging as another option, Elbert’s health and success in Spring Training will go a long way in determining his future with the club after years and years of injuries finally appeared to be behind him.

Shawn Tolleson

Shawn Tolleson, the club’s top relief prospect heading into 2012, got the call in early June before getting the Blake DeWitt treatment and shuffling between The Show and the minors. Though he moved around, he ended up appearing in 40 games and just under 40 innings.

Known for his swing-and-miss ability and domination of the minors, Tolleson whiffed 9.32/9 IP while posting a 4.08 FIP and 3.78 SIERA. He did struggle with his control at times, walking 4.78 per nine, and he allowed almost a homer per nine.

Five outings — in which he allowed between two and four runs in each — skewed the 24-year-old righty’s numbers a bit, though not as much as his massive struggles against the 68 lefties he faced, who hit a combined .316/.426/.471/.897 against the Texan. On the other side of the coin, Shawn was death to righties, holding them to a .152/.244/.207/.453 line.

Those lefty struggles not withstanding, the future is exceptionally bright for Clayton Kershaw‘s former teammate. Tolleson will have a prominent role in the pen going forward — whether that role begins at the outset of 2013 or not –  and a young pen featuring Jansen/Tolleson/Rodriguez/Guerra should have fans excited.

Randy Choate

Acquired in the Hanley Ramirez deal, Choate arrived with the reputation of a lefty specialist (.201/.278/.252/.530 career) and continued to dominate his brethren in 2012, limiting them to a .158/.243/.190/.433 slash line.

Though he held lefties down in 2012, Choate was mediocre overall after arriving, posting a 4.89 FIP, 4.16 SIERA, and a negative WAR (-0.1). Most troubling was his propensity for issuing free passes, to the tune of 6.08 per nine in his 36 appearances.

Paco Rodriguez

Just 21 and fresh out of college in the spring of 2012, Paco Rodriguez found himself in 11 games down the stretch and whiffed a very impressive 8.1 per nine over those 6.2 innings. He posted a 3.09 FIP and 4.17 SIERA — as well as a .143/.200/.133/.333 slash line against lefties — in his very small sample size of a career, and holds the distinction of being the first 2012 draftee to debut in The Show.

Rodriguez enters 2013 with just north of 25 professional innings under his belt, and could very likely open 2013 on the major-league roster. Paco’s immediate future hinges on Elbert’s health, the signing of some other free agent lefty specialist, and his 2013 Spring Training performance.

While he has stuff to improve upon (like his control), if he can solidify a spot in the pen he would provide the Dodgers with another lefty and a cheap bullpen option with a ton of upside.

Jamey Wright

Jamey Wright, who made the team out of Spring Training after signing a minor-league deal, surprised most with a solid campaign, surpassing expectations in his 66 appearances and 67.2 innings pitched.

Wright fanned 7.18 per nine while posting a 3.39 FIP and 3.15 SIERA. His splits were quite wacky all the way around, as he allowed southpaws to get on-base more, but righties knocked him around in terms of extra-base hits (.252/.365/.230/.595 versus LH & .283/.337/.329/.666 versus RH).

As alluded to above, Wright did struggle with his control, as he allowed around 4.0 BB/9. He did a great job, however, of keeping the ball in the park — 0.27 HR/9 — which saved him from those walks becoming more damaging. Hitters actually benefited from a bit of luck against him with a .324 BABIP, but Wright’s strong propensity for inducing ground balls (67.3%) and infield popups (12.0% IFFB) allowed him to escape his control problems relatively unscathed.

Having lived off minor-league deals, which he turned into major-league roster spots, for most of the past decade, Wright will head into 2012 — his age-38 season — with a strong likelihood of obtaining a major-league contract. Earning just under $1.5 million last year, Wright will probably receive a small raise, and the Dodgers could do a lot worse.

Odds & Ends

Matt Guerrier spent most of 2012 on the shelf with right elbow inflammation, but managed to return late in the season and appeared in 16 games totaling 14 innings. It did not go well. He pitched to a 6.31 FIP and 4.86 SIERA while walking seven, hitting a batter, and allowing a total of 16 baserunners, six earned runs, and 56 total bases against.

He has a year remaining — at $3.75 million — on the ridiculous three-year deal that Ned Colletti signed him to in late-2010. Whether he has a place in the bullpen though, considering the superior arms around him, is another story entirely.

—–

Josh Lindblom, prior to being dealt to Philadelphia in the Shane Victorino trade, struggled despite some solid peripherals following a breakout 2011. Though he struck out 8.12/9 IP while walking 3.40/9 IP, Lindblom put up a 5.07 FIP, though his SIERA was a fine 3.66.

What really killed him was the long-ball, as following a 2011 in which he didn’t allow a single homer in almost 30 innings, Josh was touched up for nine dingers before being traded.

—–

I honestly forgot Mike MacDougal was a Dodger in 2012, but he began the year on a ludicrous guaranteed one-year major-league deal. He quickly flamed out, lasting seven games and 5.2 innings too long. In that short time, he allowed 15 baserunners, five earned runs, and 32 total bases.

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Greg Zakwin is the founder of the site Plaschke Thy Sweater Is Argyle. Follow him on Twitter @ArgyledPlaschke.

Clayton Kershaw

After Clayton Kershaw‘s 2011 performance, for which he won the Cy Young Award, I wasn’t sure I could be more impressed with him going forward. That’s not to say I was certain he had peaked, but it would no longer come as a surprise to me or anyone else. What impressed me so much about his 2012 season though, was the fact that he had another fantastic season while pitching through physical adversity.

Kershaw had to deal with plantar fasciitis throughout most, if not all of, the campaign, on top of a late-season hip injury that could have led to surgery, and an early-season illness that forced him to last just three innings in his 2012 debut.

After 2011 bests in FIP (2.28), SIERA (2.81), xFIP (2.84), BB/9 IP (2.08), and WAR (7.2), Clayton followed with excellent marks across that spectrum yet again, with a 2.53 FIP, 3.24 SIERA, 3.25 xFIP, 2.49 free passes per nine, and a 6.3 WAR. His strikeouts remained above one per inning (9.57/9 IP in 2011, 9.05 in 2012), and he backed up his 0.98 WHIP last season with a 1.02 mark this year.

Kid K has made his living missing bats and inducing weak contact, and he continued that trend in 2012, inducing a mess of infield popups (12.2 IFFB%) and increasing the amount of ground balls he generates for a fourth consecutive season (39.4%/40.1%/43.2%/46.9%).

In line for his second consecutive Cy, and fresh off of winning the Roberto Clemente Award, Clayton heads into 2013 on the last year of the two-year deal he signed to avoid arbitration. Slated to make just $11 million in ’13, the underpaid Clayton should have already received a long-term extension. Locking up the young stud southpaw should be the primary objective of Ned Colletti and his staff going forward.

Chad Billingsley

Entering 2012, Chad Billingsley was coming off of a pair of interesting and contrasting seasons: 2010 was his best season ever, while 2011 saw him take a step back. Always the lightning rod for Dodgers fans, especially with Jonathan Broxton away in Kansas City, Bills was at somewhat of a crossroads, as a good campaign would go a long way with the organization, while a sub-par one could have easily landed him elsewhere.

Always a Billingsley fan myself, I was very optimistic about his 2012 prospects, with one caveat:

Bills struggles resulted in a WAR cut in half from the previous year (2.1, down from 4.5) and questions about his mechanics and health. Still shy of his 28th birthday, Billingsley has every chance to rebound, and much like his poor second half of 2009 led to his best professional season, said rebound in 2012 would not be the least surprising to me. In fact, I’ll call it right now, as I fully expect Chad to be productive as Kershaw’s running mate next season, provided he is in fact healthy.

And unfortunately, that caveat became reality, as Chad suffered from an elbow injury that sent him to the DL twice, felled him permanently from August 24th on, and may require Tommy John surgery if plasma injections and rest don’t suffice as a rehab method.

Prior to being shut down, Chad started 25 games, and in just shy of 150 innings, had been excellent. A FIP of 3.34, SIERA of 3.83, and HR/9 of just 0.66 worked to produce a 2.5 WAR. On pace for another 3.5 WAR season, what was most impressive about the 2012 version of Billingsley was the fact that he had cut down significantly on his walks, trimming a 4.02 BB/9 mark down to 2.71.

While Bills isn’t the pitcher Kershaw is, we saw what cutting down on free passes did for Clayton, and it was working well for Chad too before his elbow got in the way of what was shaping up to be one of his best seasons. The Dodgers were able to lock him up prior to the 2011 season for a team-friendly three-year contract with a club option for 2015, and Chad will make $11 million this upcoming year whether or not he can throw a pitch.

A 2013 prediction for Chad really can’t be accurately made, as we have little idea whether the treatments he’s presently undergoing will ultimately allow him to pitch, though the most recent news is very promising. Tommy John surgery would wipe out his entire season, but if the treatments work and he’s able to suit up for the Dodgers next year, there’s ample reason to expect another solid year.

Chris Capuano

Chris Capuano was signed to a back-loaded two-year, $10 million deal with a 2014 mutual option, and while I wasn’t thrilled with the back-loaded nature of the deal, I was alright with him being brought on as a #4 starter. Granted, with the Dodgers #3 being Ted Lilly, they really had no #3 and a plethora of #4/#5 options, but with Cap there was at least some upside.

Coming off a bounce back 2011 season following injury issues, Capuano had a solid #3/#4 type season, whiffing 7.35/9 IP while issuing 2.45 BB/9. Like the two men to follow in this review, Chris struggled in limiting home runs, allowing over one per contest. Those walk and homer numbers were improvements over his 2011 season with the Mets, but he also struck out almost a batter less per nine than he did in his lone season in New York.

A look at his FIP, SIERA, and WAR don’t offer a clear picture beyond the aforementioned #3/#4 starter status, as he improved his FIP from 2011 (4.04/3.95), as well as his WAR (1.4/2.3), but saw a decently sharp increase in his SIERA (3.63/3.90). Cap allows a lot of hard contact (~20% LD career) and fly balls (~40% career), so pitching in a park like Dodger Stadium helps to mitigate the struggles associated with that.

Perhaps most interesting is Chris’ career pre- and post-ASG splits. In 2012, Capuano allowed a .232/.295/.374/.669 line to opponents pre-break, but that ballooned to .281/.317/.454/.770 following the mid-summer classic. Those numbers hold true for his career, as he’s always been more of a first-half pitcher (.257/.320/.414/.734 vs. .273/.331/.473/.804 with BABIP and K/BB marks that have remained steady).

He’ll enter 2013 as the #3 or #4 starter, and if he can up that strikeout rate a bit, he could be solid yet again.

Aaron Harang

Signed to a back-loaded two-year, $12 million deal with a mutual option for 2014 — a deal I was against at the time and still am upset with — Aaron Harang was exactly what he has been since Dusty Baker ruined his arm a few years back: an overpaid #4/#5 starter.

In 31 starts and just under 180 innings, Harang struck out a paltry 6.56 per nine while issuing an poor 4.26 free passes per nine. His shiny ERA may lead many to see his season as a success, but dig just a bit deeper and you find a 4.14 FIP, 4.87 SIERA, and just a 1.7 WAR.

Harang hasn’t exceeded 2.3 WAR since 2007, has not struck out more than seven per nine since 2009, and has seen his walk rate trend up in the last four seasons. That’s … uh … not good, and barring a trade, Harang will return and try to hold off age for another 30 or so starts.

Ted Lilly

Lilly only made eight starts in 2012, totaling under 50 innings, as the injury bug bit him hard in the form of a left shoulder ailment that would end up requiring arthroscopic surgery.

Prior to his injury, in an obviously small sample size, the veteran lefty posted a 3.92 FIP and 4.81 SIERA while seeing a sharp drop in his strikeout numbers from 2011 and his career rate (5.73 in ’12, 7.38 in ’11, 7.64 career).

Entering the final year of a back-loaded three-year-deal that will pay him $12 million in 2013, Lilly no longer has no-trade clause protection, but considering that he is coming off of an injury to his pitching shoulder and will be 37 for the duration of next season, there’s not much value to be had on the trade market anyway.

Lilly will reportedly be available for Spring Training barring any setback, and with a rotation already set, there’s a chance Lilly winds up in the pen to complement Scott Elbert and/or Paco Rodriguez, occupying a long-relief role and spot-starting when necessary.

Josh Beckett

Acquired in the massive deal with Boston, Josh Beckett arrived on the heels of an overblown but still bad 21 starts with the Red Sox in 2012. I say overblown because he was pitching like a #3 starter in 2012, but with all of the focus on his personality and the September collapse of 2011, you’d have thought he was pitching his way out of baseball entirely.

His results were terrible in Boston (5.23 ERA), but Beckett had posted a 4.26 FIP and 4.28 SIERA before the deal, while walking 2.7 per 9. Most concerning were his drop in strikeouts to roughly 6.5 per 9 after five straight seasons of over 8.0 per 9.

Upon his arrival, Beckett was solid and showed improvement, striking out almost 8.0 per 9 with a 3.82 FIP and 3.81 SIERA. While some might attribute that to the new manager and new clubhouse environment, it’s far more likely due to the weaker league and weaker division, offensively-speaking.

Beckett is under contract for another two seasons, each at $15.75 million, and slots in as the #2 or #3 starter heading into 2013. Going into his age-33 season, Beckett is no sure thing to transform back into the front of the rotation starter he once was, though that’s what the Dodgers will need out of him if they don’t go out and get an arm in the off-season.

Joe Blanton

Acquired from the Phillies for a PTNBL that eventually became pitcher Ryan O’Sullivan, Joe Blanton turned in a solid ten starts for the Blue Crew, posting a 3.74 FIP and 3.61 SIERA while whiffing 8.0 per 9 and walking 2.5 per 9.

Blanton’s strikeouts were a pleasant surprise, as his career mark sits just above 6.0 per 9, though he did struggle with the home run, as usual, allowing over one per game as a Dodger. Blanton’s overall season numbers are fifth-starter material, as he posted a 1.7 WAR, though his peripherals were good enough to be a #4.

After making $8.5 million each of the last two seasons, Blanton heads to free agency, and entering his age-32 season, he’ll certainly be looking for at least a two-year commitment from a team. The Dodgers will be after an arm or two, and there are worse options than him, but with the Dodgers flush in cash I doubt he’ll be a target.

Odds & Ends

Nate Eovaldi made 10 starts for the Dodgers prior to being dealt to Florida for Hanley Ramirez. In those ten starts, the 22-year-old righty struck out just 5.4/9 IP while walking 3.2/9 IP. He put up an FIP of 4.11 and a SIERA of 4.67.

While some are high on his stuff and potential as a #3 starter, I always saw him as a reliever due to his low strikeout numbers, and for the chance that Hanley hits again, it was a great trade in my book.

—–

Stephen Fife, acquired in the Trayvon Robinson deal that made no sense at the time, made just five spot-starts for the Dodgers in 2012. Everything I saw from the 26-year-old profiles as a bullpen arm who can spot-start here and there.

With an FIP of 4.14 and a SIERA of 4.67, I suppose he could be a fifth starter, but again, he seems to profile as a fungible relief arm with his lack of swing and miss stuff and the decrease in strikeouts as he’s advanced levels to face more competent hitting.

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Greg Zakwin is the founder of the site Plaschke Thy Sweater Is Argyle. Follow him on Twitter @ArgyledPlaschke.

Andre Ethier

Andre Ethier, in his age-30 season and coming off a couple of years in which he had to deal with injuries, spent time on the DL again this past season, which limited him to just 146 games. Oblique injury aside, Dre actually had one of his best campaigns as a pro, posting a ~3.1 WAR that included average baserunning (~0.0) and below-average fielding (~-3.0).

—–

With the bat, Ethier posted a .284/.351/.460/.811 slash line with a .350 wOBA and 124 wRC+. While his power did jump from the previous year (.129 to .176 ISO), which should have been expected with his ’11 pinkie injury healed, he did display a troubling tendency at the plate, as he walked less (10.5/8.1 BB%) and struck out more (18.7/20.1 K%) than in 2011. His 2012 BABIP of .333 is consistent with his career mark of .324 and his average on balls-in-play in all but one of his major league seasons, so luck doesn’t really factor into the larger picture for Andre.

While his walks and strikeouts make one pause, what doesn’t shock us anymore is his continued ineptitude against southpaws. In 2012, Andre hit – if we can even use that word – .222/.276/.330/.606 against lefty hurlers, and he was somehow worse than his career slash line of .238/.296/.352/.649. Simply put, Ethier can’t, won’t, and never will hit lefties with the amount of consistency that an everyday player should. Sure, he’ll garner the occasional base-knock against one of his own kind, but Don Mattingly would be wise to institute a firmer platoon in right if Ned Colletti could ever actually provide him with a platoon partner who isn’t as putrid as your Juan Rivera-types Uncle Ned always gravitates towards.

—–

Heading into year one of a 5-year, $85 million dollar contract that has a great chance of becoming a $100 million deal, Andre Ethier no longer needs to be the second-best bat on the squad, but if struggles in the box continue for a couple of new additions, he could end up being the second-best offensive player once again in 2013 … which might not be a good thing.

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Greg Zakwin is the founder of the site Plaschke Thy Sweater Is Argyle. Follow him on Twitter @ArgyledPlaschke.

Left field has been, is, and will in all likelihood continue to be, a vast wasteland for the Dodgers. That is, unless Carl Crawford returns to his Tampa Bay form in 2013 or the Yasiel Puig era — whenever that actually begins — proves to be worth the wait.

But we’re getting ahead of ourselves. Let’s review 2012, which was a comedy of mediocrity flanking Matt Kemp‘s right side.

Shane Victorino

I start with Shane Victorino, not because he was any good, but because he carries with him name value. Coming off a career year in 2011, he dropped off significantly in 2012. Following a campaign in which he slashed .279/.355/.491/.846 with a .368 wOBA, The Flyin’ Hawaiian hit just .255/.321/.383/.704 with a .310 wOBA this past season. That line fell even further after he was dealt to the Dodgers, as he hit a putrid .245/.316/.351/.667 with a .297 wOBA in Dodger Blue.

Known as an elite baserunner with a great glove in center, some pop, and decent on-base skills, Victorino’s offensive numbers crashed across the board in 2012 from his 2011 and career marks. He set or tied career worsts in ISO (.128), OBP (.321), wOBA (.310), wRC+ (94), and SLG% (.383).

Shane still managed to provide some value through his legs (~5.0 baserunning) and glove (~2.5 fielding), and he ended up posting a ~3.0 WAR in 2012, but only ~1.0 WAR after the trade.

Reports have Shane seeking a long-term deal this year as he hits free agency, and though he’s intimated at returning only as a starter, with the aforementioned Crawford and Puig signed to long-term deals themselves — not to mention the fact that heading into his age-32 season — there’s no place in a crowded Los Angeles outfield for the three-time Dodger.

Bobby Abreu

After being released by the Angels and qualifying to be a Dodger based on his “veteranness”, Bobby Abreu started 42 games in left for the Dodgers in 2012, the second-most of any player on the team behind the previously-discussed Victorino.

After a splashy start to his Dodger stint (.318/.430/.424/.854 in his first 24 games, buoyed by a .438 BABIP, no less), Abreu was right back to the player that he was at the end of his Angels career, the one that got him DFA’d: .209/.325/.302/.627 over his final 68 games as a Dodger, which included a trip to the minors.

He won’t be back. Please listen to that, Ned Colletti.

No.

Juan Rivera

Juan Rivera started 30 games in left, hitting .282/.313/.376/.689 in the process. As he started more games at first than in left in 2012, he’ll get a more depressing detailed write-up in that Season Review.

Let’s just say his WAR was ~-0.3 and move on to other, less predictable matters.

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Greg Zakwin is the founder of the site Plaschke Thy Sweater Is Argyle. Follow him on Twitter @ArgyledPlaschke.

Hanley Ramirez

Hanley Ramirez was once a stud shortstop (based solely on his bat, of course), a young player a franchise could build around. Fast forward to 2012 and Han-Ram was just a struggling player acquired by the Dodgers in an effort to upgrade at a position of need and make a run at 2012.

Acquired for Nate Eovaldi and Scott McGough, Hanley arrived as a third baseman swinging the lumber to the tune of a paltry .246/.322/.428/.750 slash line with a .326 wOBA. For the defense-first position of shortstop, that’s acceptable, but for a player of Ramirez’s offensive stature and talent, that’s a far cry from a franchise building block. Additionally, even though he plays a defense-first position, fielding prowess is the last thing anyone would ever note Hanley for.

While he hit better with the Dodgers, primarily as a shortstop, it wasn’t by much, and that came with a worse BB%, a higher K%, and a 48-point bump in BABIP from his 2012 Marlins stint. While his BABIP with the Dodgers moved closer to his career mark, he’s suffered a drop in that area the last couple of years, as it was once routinely north of .325. Factoring in a loss of speed with age, I wouldn’t bet on that BABIP magically leaping back to its earlier resting place. Why? Because with age, attrition, his injury history, and his loss of speed, he won’t exactly be beating them out in droves.

As I touched upon previously, Hanley is a terror with the glove, and it really shows when you take a look at the advanced metrics. Taking on that task reveals a mind-boggling 14 runs that Hanley cost his 2012 employers while manning both short and third. The eye test? Judging by Twitter reactions, I doubt there’s anybody who would argue with the metrics. It’s important, because that strikingly bad showing left Hanley with a paltry ~2.4 WAR, a slight bounce back from his 2011 WAR of ~1.1, but nothing to write home about after a previous string of five seasons in which his WAR never fell below 4.0 and reached as high as 7.5.

The Dodgers best bet moving forward is to have Hanley play third and an actual shortstop who can field the position play short. How Ned Colletti would go about acquiring that shortstop is a different question though, so for now, the best options would appear to be either Dee Gordon or Luis Cruz.

Dee Gordon

Dee Gordon began the 2012 season as the starting shortstop, spent much of the middle portion of the year on the DL with a thumb injury, and ended the year as a pinch-runner. While his offensive limitations were obvious, and his defense was in serious need of improvement, it was hoped that he could scrape by and get on enough to use his fantastic speed to wreak havoc on opposing pitchers and catchers.

Unfortunately for Dee, the Dodgers, and OBP-lovers everywhere, 2012 was a lost season for the 24-year-old. Prior to his injury, Dee was a mess at the plate, with a slash line of just .229/.280/.282/.562 due to his low walk rate (6.1 %), severe lack of power (.053 ISO in 330 PA), and a propensity to hit the ball weakly on the ground (58.9 GB%). Dee returned from injury and headed straight for the minors, and upon his return after rosters expanded, garnered just three plate appearances.

And yet, Don Mattingly allowed Dee to lead-off for much of his 2012 season. A.J. Ellis silently weeps.

Anyway, Dee was just as abominable in the field, costing the Dodgers ~10.5 runs with his glove. His range aside, Dee must work on his hands and accuracy, because becoming a defensive asset at short is his path to being an MLB regular. For now though, his weak bat and weak glove worked to produce a WAR right around -1.0.

The sole area where Dee did contribute was, not surprisingly, the basepaths, where he was worth around ~3.0 runs and stole 32 bases. However, he swiped bags at just an average rate (~76%), so there’s plenty of room for Dee to grow in that respect, unless he wants to be Juan Pierre and steal a lot of bags while not being a great basestealer.

Dee’s role in 2013 is not yet clear. While he could remain in the bigs as a bench player, pinch-runner, or spot-starter, it seems more likely that he would begin the season as the starting shortstop in AAA so the Dodgers can work with him on his offensive, defensive, and basestealing shortcomings.

The upside is still there, but 2012 clearly showed there was a long way to go.

Luis Cruz

As Cruz started 23 games at short — mostly after Gordon’s injury but before Ramirez’s acquisition — he’ll get a brief mention here, although his full write-up can be found in the Season Review for third base.

Despite his overall solid year, Cruz hit a mediocre .235/.267/.388/.655 while captaining the infield, though almost half of his 20 hits in his 85 plate appearances went for extra-bases (two homers and seven doubles). In the field, he was solid, clocking in at ~0.7 runs saved.

If the Dodgers start Cruz at short, he helps the club most there because his defense far surpasses Hanley’s.

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Greg Zakwin is the founder of the site Plaschke Thy Sweater Is Argyle. Follow him on Twitter @ArgyledPlaschke.

So a popular question lately has been: “What the hell happened to Shohei Otani?”

In short? Nothing, because despite whatever speculation there had been about MLB teams technically having no need to respect NPB exclusivity rights, like I said in a previous post about the situation, I see no upside for an MLB team to just barge in and violate the status quo.

Basically, the latest on the Otani front is that the Nippon Ham Fighters are meeting with his parents and what not, but not him, personally. There have been zero contract talks, so while the media is saying a bunch of stuff (and editorializing a bit), it doesn’t seem like there’s anything substantial going on that would be worth reporting if it wasn’t for the nature of this situation.

As I said, just wait.

—–

Speaking of potential signings out of Asia, Stan Kasten is saying that they might not sign Hyun Jin Ryu until after the Winter Meetings, which end only a few days before the deadline.

According to Kasten, the Dodgers might not determine whether to sign Ryu until after they see what pitchers they can acquire in trade or free agency by the time the winter meetings end Dec. 6.

“That’s a decision that doesn’t have to be made until after the winter meetings are over,” Kasten said.

Doubt this means anything since Scott Boras tends to drag situations like these out to the bitter end to extract every penny he can anyway.

I expect Ryu to sign and deserve to be in the rotation over Aaron Harang and Ted Lilly but start the year in AAA anyway because the former two are veterans or whatever garbage excuse they will use.

—–

Mark Saxon of ESPN Los Angeles reports that the Dodgers are out on Torii Hunter.

Source: Dodgers out on Torii Hunter

— Mark Saxon (@markasaxon) November 13, 2012

Good.

Did anybody really think he made sense?

—–

In what is probably the best news of the off-season, the Dodgers went on an international scout hiring spree.

Colletti said the hiring spree is probably over after essentially acquiring the international scouting staff of the Seattle Mariners. Two weeks ago the Dodgers hired Bob Engle as vice president of international scouting and Monday they brought on six of his Mariners staff — Pedro Avila, Gene Grimaldi, Patrick Guerrero, Pat Kelly, Jamey Storvick and Mike Tosar.

The Dodgers on Monday also announced the additions of Josh Bard as special assistant, player personnel and professional scouts Willie Fraser and Scott Groot. Former Dodgers third baseman Bill Mueller, who served as special assistant, player personnel, will become a full-time professional scout.

“The fact the Dodgers were dead last in international signings, that was hard to believe,” said Kasten. “For me, it’s a priority, and not just signing players as the end result, but getting the people to sign the players.”

“We’ve doubled the size of the [international] scouting operation,” said Colletti. “A couple years ago when we traded veterans, we looked at other organizations and saw a lot of the successful teams got a lot of players not born in the U.S. It was time for us to get back invested in it.”

For me, this is probably the best part about the new ownership thus far.

Luis Cruz

I can safely say that I’m not the only one who had no idea who Luis Cruz was at the outset of the 2012 season. By the end of it, the once unknown 28-year-old journeyman had become a cult hero in Los Angeles. Heading into 2013, it appears he’ll not only hold down a roster spot, but be the Dodgers starting third baseman.

Now whether that’s something a team with a $200 million payroll should be doing, however, is another matter entirely. Others seem to be having difficulty wrapping their head around it as well, probably because heading into 2012, Cruz’s major-league career consisted of 169 plate appearances spread over three seasons and 56 games. He was atrocious at the dish in that limited sample size, and had been a career minor-leaguer, save for those small cups of coffee.

Following injuries to Dee Gordon (thumb) and Juan Uribe (playing baseball like he plays life), Cruz was called up in early-July and spent time at third, short, and second. Most of that time — 51 games and 48 starts — was at the hot corner, where he shined with the glove, posting a 6.6 UZR and a +8 on the DRS scale. He was very good with the leather overall, saving ~5.5 runs in total in 2012. His play at third was especially impressive considering he had never before manned the position in the bigs.

That last sentence is an important one with Cruz, because fans are quick to make judgments when they first see a player perform in The Show, and Cruz has become a savor in the eyes of many fans. If injuries don’t derail plans and we assume that he continues to flash the leather at third in 2013, Cruz can be an adequate starter for the Dodgers based on his defensive showing in 2012 alone. However, if Cruz’s defense proves to be a mirage, then his offense probably won’t cut it because it’s a strong candidate to regress. Yes, that’s still better than Uribe, who we’ll get to momentarily, but simply being better than Emo Juan isn’t enough to be a productive major-leaguer.

The main problems are that Cruz doesn’t walk (3% in 2012), has limited power (.134 ISO), and is just an average baserunner. Combine those factors with an inflated BABIP (.320), and he’s looking at a less impressive 2013 triple-slash. Oh, and he swings at just about everything, including a ridiculous 41.1% of pitches outside of the strike zone, compared with a league average of just under 31%. That’s not a great indicator unless you’re Vladimir Guerrero talent-wise, and Cruz is obviously not (who is?).

Even for a guy who posted a ~2.3 WAR in 2012, given the rational concerns with him repeating that performance, a starting gig in 2013 is still a godsend. If the only options are starting Cruz or Uribe, then sure, Cruz is the easy choice, but his career minor-league line in 12 seasons and 1200+ plate appearances of .261/.296/.394/.690 speaks volumes to me, and it’s a far greater indicator of what to expect going forward than 296 plate appearances this past season.

Cruz deservedly has a spot on the team, but it probably should be as a bench player, not a starter. And given where he came from prior to the Dodgers, that’s not a diss, but rather a compliment that he’s earned his keep.

Juan Uribe

Juan Uribe managed to make it through an entire season — in which he hit an unseemly .191/.258/.284/.542 with a .245 wOBA — without being cut. He spent some time on the DL, but more of it riding the pine, going weeks down the stretch without seeing the field.

Spending any significant amount of time on him is a nauseating notion, so let’s just quickly wrap this up and note that Uribe is heading into the final year of the atrocious deal Ned Colletti handed out to him prior to the 2011 campaign. Yes, he still swings at everything, is averse to drawing a walk, and will probably still find work somewhere because he can handle himself in the field, saving ~3.7 runs in 2012.

Whatever.

Adam Kennedy

Adam Kennedy also found himself at third last season, starting 25 games and appearing in 39. He’s pretty much the opposite of Uribe, as he’s bad with the leather (about a run in debt to the Dodgers overall) but mediocre with the lumber (.262/.345/.357/.702 with a .310 wOBA overall). And by mediocre, I mean bad, but better than anyone actually expected him to be.

Jerry Hairston Jr.

One last player of note to find himself at third last season was Jerry Hairston Jr., who started 23 games and appeared in 32 at third.

He swung the bat well when playing there, to the tune of a .315/.344/.435/.779 line in just under 100 plate appearances. Perhaps most impressively though, he got off to a ridiculously hot start there defensively, which helped him rate well with the glove (2.6 UZR and a DRS of +2) even though he did struggle later in 2012.

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Greg Zakwin is the founder of the site Plaschke Thy Sweater Is Argyle. Follow him on Twitter @ArgyledPlaschke.

The Dodgers officially announced the hiring of Mark McGwire as hitting coach, replacing Dave Hansen. McGwire spent the past three years with the Cardinals as their hitting coach.

Under his tutelage, the Cards offense was top-five in OBP in each of his seasons at the offensive helm, leading all of baseball last year.

McGwire has stated that his philosophy includes not forcing change upon established sluggers, so Matt Kemp will be allowed to be himself. Hopefully McGwire can rub off on some of the lesser bats in the lineup while aiding Hanley Ramirez and Adrian Gonzalez in regaining some of their previous offensive clout. The willingness McGwire displayed as a player for drawing a walk could also be a great starting point for most of the team, as that aspect of the game can never be emphasized enough.

—–

As Chad noted yesterday, the Dodgers won the rights to Korean southpaw Hyun Jin Ryu, according to Mike Petriello. The Dodgers are spending money like they have a printing press hidden away in Ned Colletti‘s suite, and this seems like just another example.

—–

The club has outrighted Alfredo Silverio to AAA Albuquerque, opening up a spot on the 40-man roster. Silverio missed the entire 2012 season while dealing with multiple injuries suffered in a car crash.

—–

23 minor-leaguers, most notably Ramon Troncoso and Josh Fields, became free agents earlier this week.

If Troncoso were to return, it would just be as AAA roster filler, as the Dodgers possess a plethora of bullpen arms and Ramon has been mediocre at best recently. Fields is your typical AAAA player, and he could be a back of the bench player with some pop, though considering that he didn’t see The Show in 2012, he’s not all that likely to see it in 2013 with the Dodgers.

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Greg Zakwin is the founder of the site Plaschke Thy Sweater Is Argyle. Follow him on Twitter @ArgyledPlaschke.

Brandon League has signed a three-year, $22.5 million deal with the Dodgers, according to MLB.com and … everybody.

The Dodgers re-signed reliever Brandon League to a three-year contract for $22.5 million Tuesday, and general manager Ned Colletti said the right-hander will be the closer.

MLB Trade Rumors provides further information on the option.

10:24pm: The 2016 vesting option can escalate from $7.5MM to $9MM based on games finished, according to Jim Bowden of ESPN.com (via Twitter). League can also earn an additional $500K per year based on games finished.

8:27pm: League’s option for 2016 is worth $7.5MM and will vest if he finishes 55 games in 2015, tweets Dylan Hernandez of the Los Angeles Times.

Not that worried about the option because I doubt it’s going to be a factor given the volatility of the position. Even if it does come into play, that means his contract to that point has been a rousing success, so I don’t see it as an issue.

—–

As some of you know, I wrote about this potential deal the other day, and I still don’t feel much different.

League is a career 3.60 ERA and 3.81 FIP reliever, while the average reliever put up a 3.67 ERA and 3.79 FIP in 2012. Both his career strikeout and walk rates aren’t anything to write home about, clocking in a 6.71 K/9 and 3.10 BB/9. So there’s immediate concern there that he’s basically a solid, average reliever.

The upside is that he’s posted a 2.78 FIP in 2011 and a 3.19 FIP in 2012, but he has proven to be anything but consistent over his career, and his mechanics fade in and out seemingly at random, so choosing him as the guy to invest multiple years in seems like an iffy plan at best.

Factor in the recent history regarding relievers on multi-year deals, and it looks downright frightening.

Since 2009, when he became a full-time reliever, he has posted WAR totals of 0.7, 0.3, 1.1, and 1.0. So value-wise, the team is basically paying him like he’s about to have career years in all of 2013, 2014, and 2015.

Additionally, he struggles against lefties (.765 OPS LHB/.590 OPS RHB), which Jose Valverde showed could be a disaster in the making. It’s problematic if League is deployed as the closer, which Ned Colletti apparently plans to do, and Don Mattingly probably won’t be able to work around the platoon split because he isn’t exactly known as a keen bullpen strategist.

Hell, throw the statistics out of the window if you want. This is a guy who lost his job as a closer with the Mariners LAST YEAR, and now he’s being signed to hold onto the job for three years in the face of multiple pitchers who are already better than him.

And yeah, I’ve heard about the gigantic payroll and how overpaying him doesn’t matter and yadda yadda yadda. I’ll address those notions in a separate post, but for now I’ll just say that it’s hard for me to simply wish away the specifics of this contract in a bout of cognitive dissonance because I want to believe in the fairy tale that payroll efficiency doesn’t matter.

Look, he’ll probably be a fine reliever, just like Jamey Wright was in 2012 (seriously, I was wrong about him, compare the two in 2012), but unless something drastic changes in 2013, he’s not worth the money he’ll be getting, and I just continue to wonder when that trend catches up with the team.

I didn’t like the Brandon League trade at the time it was executed, primarily because the effect that a reliever can have in such a short time period is both volatile and minimal. That dislike for the deal grew to mockery when he got off to a horrid start, but after the Dodgers said they fixed his mechanics (and I found that they actually did), he reeled off an undoubtedly impressive stretch of pitching.

While that was a wonderful way to finish the season for him, perhaps it wasn’t worth it if the rumor about Ned Colletti being in talks with League’s agent regarding a three-year deal rings true.

The Dodgers are talking to League’s representatives about a three-year contract, according to people familiar with the negotiations.

Yikes.

League is a career 3.60 ERA and 3.81 FIP reliever, while the average reliever put up a 3.67 ERA and 3.79 FIP in 2012. Both his career strikeout and walk rates aren’t anything to write home about, clocking in a 6.71 K/9 and 3.10 BB/9. So there’s immediate concern there that he’s basically a solid, average reliever.

The upside is that he’s posted a 2.78 FIP in 2011 and a 3.19 FIP in 2012, but he has proven to be anything but consistent over his career, and his mechanics fade in and out seemingly at random, so choosing him as the guy to invest multiple years in seems like an iffy plan at best.

Factor in the recent history regarding relievers on multi-year deals, and it looks downright frightening.

Unfortunately for the teams with the open wallets, recent history suggests that giving contracts of 3+ years to a relief pitcher is generally a terrible idea. Here’s a list of free agent relievers who have received deals for three or more years since over the last four off-seasons.

Danys Baez (2007-2009), 3 years, $19 million: -0.4 WAR
Justin Speier (2007-2010), 4 years, $18 million: -0.2 WAR
Jamie Walker (2007-2009), 3 years, $12 million: -0.5 WAR
Scott Schoeneweis (2007-2009), 3 years, $11 million: -1.5 WAR
Chad Bradford (2007-2009), 3 years, $11 million: +2.0 WAR
Francisco Cordero (2008-2011), 4 years, $46 million: +2.8 WAR
Mariano Rivera (2008-2010), 3 years, $45 million: +7.8 WAR
Scott Linebrink (2008-2011), 4 years, $18 million: +0.5 WAR
David Riske (2008-2010), 3 years, $13 million: -0.6 WAR
Francisco Rodriguez (2009-2011), 3 years, $36 million: +1.7 WAR
Damaso Marte (2009-2011), 3 years, $12 million: -0.2 WAR
Brandon Lyon (2010-2012), 3 years, $15 million: +1.0 WAR

Things haven’t got significantly better for relievers in recent times either.

25 relievers signed deals with an average annual value greater than $1 million. Five of them signed multi-year deals. The results were… mixed. First, the multi-year deals:

Jonathan Papelbon, PHI (4/$50M): 2.44 ERA, 70 IP, 38 SV
Heath Bell, MIA (3/$27M): 5.09 ERA, 63.2 IP, 19 SV
Joe Nathan, TEX (2/$14.5M): 2.80 ERA, 64.1 IP, 37 SV
Frank Francisco, NYM (2/$12M): 5.53 ERA, 42.1 IP, 23 SV
Javier Lopez, SFG (2/$8.5M): 2.50 ERA, 36 IP, 7 SV

Three were quite good, two were very bad, and one did not even play in the Majors. In total, the six relievers combined to earn in $120.4 million over 15 total years, an average annual value exceeding $8 million. Of course, that is a bit top-heavy towards Papelbon, but a 50 percent success rate is less than impressive.

Not enough? Ned Colletti can look at his own experience.

He has actually had a lot of success building piecemeal bullpens, primarily from the farm system, but also by taking a few fliers on veterans for one year or on a minor-league contract. The only reliever he has EVER signed to a multi-year deal is Matt Guerrier, who has thus far contributed a grand total of ~0.0 WAR and will probably be a middle reliever if he’s lucky in 2013.

MLB Trade Rumors noticed last off-season that GMs around baseball were catching the hint on giving multi-year deals to relievers, no matter how good they are.

Hopefully the Dodgers follow suit, because recent history is certainly not on their side.

The Dodgers have hired Gerry Hunsicker to be the Senior Advisor of Baseball Operations, according to an official release from the team.

LOS ANGELES – The Los Angeles Dodgers today hired Gerry Hunsicker as Senior Advisor, Baseball Operations. Dodger General Manager Ned Colletti made the announcement.

“Gerry brings a wealth of senior level experience and knowledge that will assist baseball operations at all levels,” said Colletti.

Hunsicker will assist Colletti and President and CEO Stan Kasten with the Dodgers’ big league club while also lending his expertise to international scouting and development, pro scouting and minor league development. The 2013 season will be the Houston resident’s 35th in Major League Baseball.

I had heard rumors floating around that he was available and that the Dodgers were in the lead for his services, but wow, it’s a surprise that they ended up landing him.

Not sure exactly why he was available, but if it was a major issue, I assume we would have heard about it, so just enjoy the fact that he’s on board.

Hunsicker previously served as the Tampa Bay Ray’s Senior Vice President, Baseball Operations, a position he held since November 2005. Hunsicker was part of principal owner Stuart Sternberg’s new management group and was a key figure in reshaping their baseball operations into the successful department it is today. With the Rays, Hunsicker was instrumental in helping to create significant presence in Venezuela, the Dominican Republic, Colombia and Brazil. In 2009, he also oversaw the Rays expanded efforts in Asia and Europe.

With the new owners’ renewed emphasis on international scouting, he will surely be a welcome addition in that department.

The rest of the resume is impressive as well, but I especially like the fact that he was the Senior Vice President of Baseball Operations for the Rays, basically brought on to help out Andrew Friedman. That’s sort of the direction I prefer the front office to go in, which makes it even weirder that Ned Colletti remains in charge. At least in the sense that Colletti seems to be surrounded by quality baseball people, either inherited from previous regimes or brought on by the new owners, but he’s the only one that doesn’t appear to fit in the puzzle.

Hunsicker began his career in baseball in 1978 and his experience spans four decades, including nine seasons as Astros General Manager from 1996-2004. Under Hunsicker, Houston posted the sixth-best winning percentage in the Majors during that period (.544, 793-665), set a franchise record with 102 wins in 1998 and reached the postseason five times in nine seasons. Hunsicker was named Sporting News Executive of the Year in 1998 and the core he assembled of Craig Biggio, Jeff Bagwell, Lance Berkman, Brad Ausmus, Roy Oswalt, Andy Pettitte and Roger Clemens won a National League title before falling to the White Sox in the 2005 Fall Classic. He also spent seven seasons in the New York Mets organization as Director of Minor League Operations (1989-90), Director of Baseball Operations (1991) and Assistant Vice President of Baseball Operations (1992-95).

The Collegeville, PA, native received his bachelor’s degree from St. Joseph’s University, where he played baseball and was named to the All-Mid-Atlantic Conference team. He holds an M.S. in management from Florida International University and also served as the school’s Assistant Athletic Director and Assistant Baseball Coach from 1975-78. Hunsicker has been honored with inductions into the St. Joseph’s Athletic Hall of Fame and the Texas Baseball Hall of Fame and also received the Torch Award of FIU, which recognizes distinguished alumni from the university.

Perhaps in some of our dreams he could be a fallback GM option in case they decide Colletti is no longer the future? Probably not, but it would provide options … or hope.

Either way, there’s little downside to getting more quality baseball minds in the front office, regardless of what you think of the current GM. Undoubtedly, this should improve the Dodgers’ decision-making, and it’s another sign that the owners understand that it’s not just player payroll that needed attention, but quality personnel as well.

The Dodgers have announced that all members of the 2012 coaching staff will return in 2013 with the lone exception being hitting coach Dave Hansen, whom the club has parted ways with after he spent just over a season in the position. While it’s true that this squad was fairly terrible offensively for most of the season, I can’t and won’t pin the blame on Hansen. Primarily because I don’t believe a hitting coach has that much of an effect on the hitting performance of a team as a whole.

Teams that can hit end up doing so because they have talented offensive players, which the club lacked for much of the year. As they later showed, the early offensive outburst was a mirage, and the reinforcements arrived too late to make an adequate judgement on how a hitting coach may have affected their performance.

Factor in the multiple injuries suffered by Matt Kemp, the late arrivals of upgrades Hanley Ramirez and Adrian Gonzalez, and the light-hitting/atrocious players Ned Colletti chose to have on the team to begin with – Dee Gordon, James Loney, Juan Rivera, to name a few – and the poor offensive showing was really to be expected.

Hansen is an easy scapegoat for the team’s struggles, but the concern should be fielding a team of talented offensive players who walk, hit for power, and run the bases effectively, and hopefully those players manage to stay healthy over the course of the season. The blame for the struggles of the Dodgers goes a lot deeper than the hitting coach, and it’s always rather pathetic when they get the ax for the failings of others.

I previously complimented (sorta) Ned Colletti for potentially taking a sabermetric stance on the issue of Andre Ethier hitting against lefties, but after reading the rest of the interview with Barry Bloom of MLB.com, perhaps I spoke too soon.

MLB.com: Do you think there has been enough time for all these parts to fit together?

Colletti: What guys have been through as a group is always going to be a factor. The guys who are together the beginning of camp are different than those who come on Aug. 25. At the same time, you also have expectations. There was so much fanfare around that trade. It’s natural for players to come in and press and want to do well. Sometimes the harder you try, the tougher it gets. Still, in Adrian’s case you’re talking about 20 RBIs in a month. I’ll take that. I’ll take that the rest of his Dodger career. The deals we made were to really give us a chance to win this year, but [also] to fortify ourselves going forward. When we made these trades, we thought that these players were going to be with us for a while.

You know, I understand that this was basically just a public relations interview. I know I shouldn’t read into it too much, but if he didn’t believe in some of this crap, there’s no reason he had to say it the way he does.

He could easily say, “I just think Adrian Gonzalez needs time to adjust, and if you look at his recent performance, he’s having better at-bats.”

That would be logical and understandable, and it’s a position many are taking.

Instead, what does he do? He cites RBI in a month and says that what A-Gon’s done for the Dodgers to this point is what he’ll take for the rest of the contract.

Um … but with the Dodgers so far, A-Gon has a .276/.326/.425/.751 line. So no, I’d rather not just “take that”.

MLB.com: Do you feel this team has underachieved?

Colletti: I think it’s tough to tell, because we’ve made so many changes and so many different things happened. Whenever you have injuries to key players, it changes your dynamic. When a guy like Matt Kemp comes back after missing 51 games, it’s tough to play yourself back into shape. You don’t have six weeks of Spring Training that you can inject into a season. It’s so much more compact and so much shorter. When you have an injury as serious as he had, it really changed the whole context of the season.

So to say that we underachieved as a team, to grade that, you almost have to have a full complement all year. If Matt Kemp had played 162 games, if everybody had played the full year and we didn’t make trades we made and all the adjustments that they entailed, it might be a different dynamic. We might have as many DL days as any team in baseball. It’s unfair to characterize it as underachieving, because we fought through so many things.

Who thought this was a good idea? Is this supposed to appease fans? Nobody is gonna feel sorry for the Dodgers anymore, and the expectations are now much higher.

Why not just explain that there were a lot of injuries this year and then acknowledge that the team struggled after the trade, but add that he expects them to be fine for next year with an offseason of stability? You can admit something was disappointing and still subtly deny that it was your fault.

Maybe straight up making excuses worked when everybody felt sorry for the staff while under Frank McCourt, but the baby gloves type of handling simply won’t happen anymore. And it shouldn’t.