I was watching “Baseball Tonight” recap the Phillies and Cardinals game yesterday, and I heard John Kruk explaining a graphic that showed that with Shane Victorino on 2nd with 0 outs in the top of the 7th inning, there was a 66% chance of the Phillies scoring. That graphic was followed by highlights of Phillies players flying out to right and grounding out to third, as further graphics flashed across the screen showing the percentage chance of scoring falling. Then came the next highlight, as with 2 outs, Ben Francisco hit the game deciding 3-run homer.

All of that was fine and good until Karl Ravech said out of nowhere that sabermetricians would have “bunted the runner over to 3rd” to “increase the odds of scoring“, and that the homer “threw all the metrics and ‘Moneyball‘ and all that out the window“. Kruk followed that up with an enthusiastic “OUT THE WINDOW” and Mark Mulder mumbled something worthless like he always does.

I did think it was odd that “Baseball Tonight” kept showing the percentages of scoring, but now I get why they did it, as they were trying to show how probability can’t predict baseball and the talking heads then segued it into a piece about how stat nerds suck.

Because statistics and stat nerds are full of shit, you see.

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The problem, of course, is that it’s complete horseshit, and anyone who remotely follows stat nerds would why.

For starters, they never compared the probability of scoring between a runner on 2nd and 0 outs with a runner on 3rd and 1 out, all they did was show the probability of scoring for the runner on 2nd with 0 outs, 1 out, and 2 outs. To put it lightly, no stat nerd in his right mind would ever suggest that bunting in that situation was the statistically sound decision.

Runner On 2nd/0 Outs – 1.06 Expected Runs Scored
Runner On 3rd/1 Out – 0.89 Expected Runs Scored
Runner On 2nd/0 Outs/Top 7/Tied Game – 60.4% Chance Of Winning
Runner On 3rd/1 Out/Top 7/Tied Game – 58.7% Chance Of Winning

As always, those odds are assuming the bunt is successful, which is hardly a guarantee.

I know it’s almost boring to bag on ESPN at this point, and I’ve seriously learned to let a lot of stupidity slide, but if you’re going to insult statistics and stat nerds for being wrong in a sample size of one type of scenario, then the least you could do is figure out what stat nerds would actually endorse.

What’s the best thing to come out of the upcoming “Moneyball” film release and the subsequent torrent of articles on it? Makes it easy to identify writers who are just lazy.

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Baseball America: Joc Pederson and James Baldwin have landed on the list of the top 20 prospects in the Pioneer League, clocking in at 3 and 11, respectively.

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Dodger Thoughts: Jon Weisman doesn’t want to see Kenley Jansen become the closer? Why? He’s too good.

True Blue LA: Matt Kemp’s bid for the triple crown is closer than you think.

Los Angeles Times: Dodgers can still sign big name players for 2012? I’ll believe it when I see it.

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Baseball Nation: Grant Brisbee with a hilarious depiction of MLB Gameday if it accurately reflected the feelings of fans.

Baseball America: Shawn Tolleson was the only Dodgers prospect to make the 2011 Minor League All-Stars team, as he was awarded a spot on the second team as a reliever.

Baseball America: When naming All-Star teams per level though, former Dodgers prospect Trayvon Robinson lands at AAA, Scott Van Slyke checks in at AA, and Joc Pederson at R.

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MLB: Don Mattingly wants Tony Gwynn Jr. back next year, which is not surprising. If he comes back at around a million, he’s a solid reserve.

Los Angeles Times Blog: Steve Dilbeck gives reasons to appreciate the 2011 Dodgers.

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Baseball Analytics: Kenley Jansen’s cutter is nasty.

True Blue LA: Eric Stephen looks at the connection between Chad Billingsley and A.J. Ellis. Despite Billingsley’s solid start yesterday, I agree that the catcher isn’t the issue here.

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Beyond The Box Score: I don’t understand why it’s so hard for people to grasp the concept that “Moneyball” was about this:

Essentially: find players with a skill set that most teams overlook and exploit the market deficiency.

No, it was not about signing low average, high on base, poor defending, slow players.

The Book: Tom Tango looks at whether time of day affects hitters and pitchers. Loved this.

Los Angeles Times: As many expected, this nightmare with the McCourts will continue into 2012.

Frank and Jamie McCourt expect to settle their divorce — and with it the question of who owns the Dodgers — in a trial during the 2012 baseball season.

The trial is expected to start next spring or summer and last 30 to 45 days, a timetable set forth by attorneys on both sides after a hearing Wednesday at Los Angeles Superior Court.

Barf.

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Mike Scioscia’s Tragic Illness: Was going to write something like this about Jonathan Broxton, but Mike Petriello basically summmed up every point I would have made. Same tone too.

The Yankee Analysts: As you can imagine, Yankees fans know about Joe Torre’s bullpen abuse as well.

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MLB: Andre Ethier underwent successful knee surgery and will be out 6-8 weeks.

MLB: 2012 Dodgers schedule was released. Means little to me, to be honest.

True Blue LA: Phil Gurnee with a nice piece on the departing Josh Rawitch.

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Dodger Thoughts: Jon Weisman talks about Dee Gordon’s patience problems.

Dodger Thoughts: Jon Weisman gave quite a thorough review of “Moneyball”. I’m actually excited to see it, which is a change, since I wasn’t when the trailer was released.

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Joe Block: Joe Block suggests that Clayton Kershaw could win 300 games.

Initial reaction? Crazy. The more I think about it though, he may be the next best shot, but it depends heavily on the quality of team the Dodgers can put out for him going forward.

Additionally, I’m not saying he’s going to get hurt, but a lot of young pitchers with his type of strikeout rate end up in the operating room, so it may be a bit premature anyway.