As fans of the Dodgers, we’re always analyzing which pitchers have the best and worst pitches, but we normally base that on nothing but our own feelings at the moment, so I decided to take a more objective look at things.

For a pitch to qualify for these rankings, I used a 200-pitch minimum for starters and a 50-pitch minimum for relievers. The metric used to measure pitch effectiveness is True Average (TAv), which is basically like wOBA. League average performance is set at .260, and the metric doesn’t include baserunning.

Additionally, to prevent the post from being solely numbers-based, and one that would have been mind-numbingly boring, I decided to provide visual evidence as well.

—–

Worst Overall Pitches

Shawn Tolleson – Sinker – .395 TAv

Mike MacDougal – Sinker – .342 TAv

Matt Guerrier – Fastball – .320 TAv

Relief pitchers have smaller sample sizes, so they are prone to fluctuations, but they have the advantage of appearing in short bursts and limiting their arsenal to only their best pitches.

So … uh … this is TERRIBLE.

.395 is like 40 points higher than Mike Trout in 2012 for fucks sake.

H-h-how?

—–

Worst Individual Pitches

Fastball

Matt Guerrier – .320 TAv

*Visual Is Above*

Shawn Tolleson – .273
Javy Guerra – .256
Scott Elbert – .237
Ronald Belisario – .082

Ugh.

Sinker

Shawn Tolleson – .395 TAv

*Visual Is Above*

Mike MacDougal – .342
Brandon League – .280
Todd Coffey – .263
Randy Choate – .262
Jamey Wright – .258
Ronald Belisario – .225

No … just no.

Cutter

Jamey Wright – .258 TAv

Scott Elbert – .242
Javy Guerra – .208
Kenley Jansen – .187
Matt Guerrier – .139

Curve

Javy Guerra – .271 TAv

Jamey Wright – .171

Finishing last out of two isn’t bad, but giving up a .271 on a curve as a reliever is.

Slider

Kenley Jansen – .236 TAv

Jamey Wright – .215
Todd Coffey – .214
Shawn Tolleson – .206
Brandon League – .147
Ronald Belisario – .121
Randy Choate – .058

I actually think he could benefit from throwing this more often because it’s a quality pitch. Not hanging it is a different story, but how is he supposed to learn command of it if he never uses it?

Change

None Qualified

Splitter

Brandon League – .096 TAv

He’s the only reliever that qualified for this pitch, so I guess he’s technically the best and the worst, but considering his split was the second-most effective pitch by a reliever for the team in 2012, I’m pretty sure he gets a pass.

As fans of the Dodgers, we’re always analyzing which pitchers have the best and worst pitches, but we normally base that on nothing but our own feelings at the moment, so I decided to take a more objective look at things.

For a pitch to qualify for these rankings, I used a 200-pitch minimum for starters and a 50-pitch minimum for relievers. The metric used to measure pitch effectiveness is True Average (TAv), which is basically like wOBA. League average performance is set at .260, and the metric doesn’t include baserunning.

Additionally, to prevent the post from being solely numbers-based, and one that would have been mind-numbingly boring, I decided to provide visual evidence as well.

—–

Best Overall Pitches

Randy Choate – Slider – .058 TAv

Brandon League – Splitter – .096 TAv

Ronald Belisario – Slider – .121 TAv

The first two pitches should come as no surprise given that they are basically what both pitchers make their money off of. However, Ronald Belisario’s slider? Really? Yeah, but I’m guessing that’s almost entirely based on how surprised hitters are to see it when they’re expecting nothing but 95-97 mph sinking fastballs.

—–

Best Individual Pitches

Fastball

Scott Elbert – .237 TAv

Javy Guerra – .256
Shawn Tolleson – .273
Matt Guerrier – .320

Ronald Belisario’s .082 was disqualified because I’m about 99% sure these pitches were simply identified incorrectly. In any case, I’m surprised by how the Dodgers have zero fireballing fastball relievers.

Sinker

Ronald Belisario – .225 TAv

Jamey Wright – .258
Randy Choate – .262
Todd Coffey – .263
Brandon League – .280
Mike MacDougal – .342
Shawn Tolleson – .395

To have everybody know the pitch is coming and to still beat hitters with it is amazing.

Cutter

Kenley Jansen – .187 TAv

Javy Guerra – .208
Scott Elbert – .242
Jamey Wright – .258

Matt Guerrier actually had a .139, but he barely met the minimum and Kenley Jansen’s cutter is his main pitch and was still below .200, which is silly. Also, I’m biased and wanted to show that GIF. Deal with it.

Curve

Jamey Wright – .171 TAv

Javy Guerra – .271

Slider

Randy Choate – .058 TAv

*Visual Is Above*

Ronald Belisario – .121
Brandon League – .147
Shawn Tolleson – .206
Todd Coffey – .214
Jamey Wright – .215
Kenley Jansen – .236

Unfair to lefties, really.

Change

None Qualified

Splitter

Brandon League – .096 TAv

*Visual Is Above*

When he has got his command working, it’s a filthy, filthy pitch.

Yes, this is the final installment of the 2012 Season Review for the Dodgers, and if you want to catch up on the others, then you can check out this tag here.

Otherwise, in the tables listed below, I have calculated the WAR (along with its components), value, and surplus value of every player on the Dodgers payroll in 2012.

It’s not meant to be taken literally (“A.J. Ellis is a better player than Matt Kemp!“), but I always learn stuff about the team that I hadn’t previously realized when I do it.

—–

The three best players on the Dodgers, according to WAR, were A.J. Ellis, Matt Kemp, and Andre Ethier, in order. The most valuable players, according to surplus value, were A.J. Ellis, Luis Cruz, and Mark Ellis.

Best hitters? Kemp, Ethier, and A.J. Ellis. Best baserunners? Dee Gordon, Shane Victorino, and Hanley Ramirez. Best fielders? Mark Ellis, Jerry Hairston Jr., and Cruz.

The three worst players on the Dodgers, according to WAR, were Gordon, Juan Rivera, and Alex Castellanos. The least valuable players, according to surplus value (excluding dead money), were Juan Uribe, James Loney, and Rivera.

Worst hitters? Gordon, Tony Gwynn Jr., and Uribe. Worst baserunners? A.J. Ellis, Adrian Gonzalez, and Matt Treanor. Worst fielders? Gordon, Kemp, Ramirez.

In related news, did you realize the Dodgers are STILL paying Juan Pierre? Good grief.

The three best pitchers on the Dodgers, according to WAR, were Clayton Kershaw, Chad Billingsley, and Chris Capuano, in order. The most valuable pitchers, according to surplus value, were Kershaw, Kenley Jansen, and Capuano.

The three worst pitchers on the Dodgers, according to WAR, were John Ely, Matt Guerrier, and Mike MacDougal. The least valuable players, according to surplus value (excluding dead money), were Ted Lilly, Guerrier, and Ely.

In related news, you can see why the Dodgers want to upgrade their rotation, as the team defense was decidedly average, but the staff RA WAR outperformed their FIP WAR by six wins.

—–

If there are any questions, let me know below.

Kenley Jansen

Kenley Jansen entered 2012 as the set-up man with elite stuff, freed up to face the opponents’ best hitters should they be due up before the ninth inning. It was the perfect scenario, considering the closer role is a vastly overrated entity. Though Jansen was slotted correctly, he quickly found himself as the closer following some early struggles in that role by Javy Guerra.

Jansen closed 2012 with his third-straight dominant season, posting a 2.40 FIP and 1.81 SIERA while whiffing a magnificent 13.71/9 IP. He appeared in a career-high 65 games and 65 innings, and though he allowed a few more long-balls (six homers after three in 2011 and none in 2010), he more importantly cut down impressively on his free passes for a third consecutive campaign (5.00/4.36/3.05 per nine innings). Also of note is his continued ability to induce infield popups, which has always been excellent (16% in 2010 & 10.9% in 2011), as he reached a new career best in 2012 (19.4 IFFB%).

To put it another way, as infield popups are essentially as effective as strikeouts, Jansen “whiffed” roughly 60% of the hitters he faced in 2012. That is insane, obviously.

Though all has been well from a between-the-lines perspective, Jansen has seen his short career put in jeopardy multiple times due to a heart ailment that has afflicted him for parts of the 2011 regular season, Spring Training of 2012, and most recently the 2012 regular season. While Jansen has thankfully been able to return from all three bouts, the irregular heartbeat has been recurring, which is troublesome for his health and career prospects.

Jansen and the Dodgers have taken action though, as Kenley recently underwent heart surgery to correct the problem. All seems well thus far, as no complications from the surgery have been revealed, and all reports indicate he’ll be ready to go for 2013. He’ll recuperate for at least three months prior to resuming baseball activities, and with his electric stuff, fantastic ability to get hitters to swing-and-miss, and three straight seasons of improving WAR (1.1/1.3/1.9), the sky is the limit for the former backstop as he continues to refine his new craft.

Brandon League

Acquired for Leon Landry and Logan Bawcom, Brandon League arrived having been stripped of his closer duties in Seattle. His 2012 with the Mariners was a season typical of your average middle reliever, as League was fanning only 5.44 per nine while walking far too many (3.83/9 IP), and had a 3.45 FIP and 4.43 SIERA. I was against the trade when it happened and League did nothing to assuage my mind in his first few outings, as he was charged with six earned runs through his first seven games with Los Angeles.

League rebounded to end 2012 strongly though, allowing one earned run from August 21 on. His strikeout rate ticked up in LA to 8.89/9 IP, the highest it had been since 2009, though he walked even more at 4.61/9
IP. His new-found success was attributed to mechanical flaws that were corrected by Rick Honeycutt and his staff.

Whether that’s true and whether his success carries over into the future or not, the 29-year-old heads into free agency banking that teams will be looking at his recent performance over his career track record that consists of 6.71 K/9 IP, 3.10 BB/9 IP, a 3.81 FIP, and a WAR that’s eclipsed 1.0 twice.

Ronald Belisario

After a time spent pretending to be Tony Montana, Ronald Belisario returned to the States and MLB in 2012. Following a 25-game suspension for violating baseball’s drug policy, Belisario made his season debut in early May and would go on to appear in a bullpen-high 68 games and 71 innings.

Belisario posted a 3.09 FIP and 2.80 SIERA, and after starting the year out-pitching his peripherals and shiny ERA, had a very good season after his year off. He fanned just shy of a batter per inning while walking 3.68 per nine and inducing a mess of ground balls (64.5 GB%), which resulted in just three homers allowed in ’12.

Belisario, after all of his troubles, is line for a nice raise from the $480,000 he made on a one-year deal in 2012. He qualified for Super Two status and is arbitration eligible, and he will be an integral part of the pen in 2013.

Javy Guerra

Javy Guerra entered 2012 as the Dodgers closer, though not the most talented reliever on the team, which is perfectly fine and is actually my preferred method of bullpen management. Following a rocky start and a liner to the head, Guerra was removed in favor of Jansen in early May.

After allowing eight earned runs in his first 14 games, which included three blown saves and a pair of losses, Guerra settled down before succumbing to a knee injury that ended his season in early September.

Though Guerra’s season is largely viewed as a failure by many, his 2012 was, in actuality, little different from his 2011 season. His strikeout rate increased (7.33/7.40), his HR/9 IP rate improved (0.39/0.20), and his FIP (3.30/3.34) and WAR remained stable (0.9/0.8).

Guerra’s “struggles” were two-fold. First, the self-inflicted portion: Guerra walked too many guys in 2012, as his BB/9 IP jumped from a high 3.47 to a terrible 4.60 per nine. That must be corrected for Javy to see more success. Second, his BABIP increased to .321 from .261. In other words, after getting lucky in 2011, 2012 saw that luck shift entirely the other way. There is almost certainly a happy medium, and in that place, Guerra is a solid contributor to the pen as a middle reliever.

Scott Elbert

After an excellent 2011 that ended with a new established role in the pen, Scott Elbert finished 2012 on the DL with an elbow injury that felled him from late August on. I wouldn’t be shocked if the elbow bothered him all year, as his numbers fell across the board.

Elbert struck out less per nine (9.18/7.99), gave up more homers (0.27/0.83), and saw a significant drop in FIP (2.73/3.80) and SIERA (3.23/3.76). The lefty also uncharacteristically struggled against his fellow southpaws in comparison with his 2011 success (.271/.342/.342/.684 after a .191/.267/.227/. 494 slash line the year before).

With Randy Choate a possibility to return if he and the club share a mutual interest, and young Paco Rodriguez emerging as another option, Elbert’s health and success in Spring Training will go a long way in determining his future with the club after years and years of injuries finally appeared to be behind him.

Shawn Tolleson

Shawn Tolleson, the club’s top relief prospect heading into 2012, got the call in early June before getting the Blake DeWitt treatment and shuffling between The Show and the minors. Though he moved around, he ended up appearing in 40 games and just under 40 innings.

Known for his swing-and-miss ability and domination of the minors, Tolleson whiffed 9.32/9 IP while posting a 4.08 FIP and 3.78 SIERA. He did struggle with his control at times, walking 4.78 per nine, and he allowed almost a homer per nine.

Five outings — in which he allowed between two and four runs in each — skewed the 24-year-old righty’s numbers a bit, though not as much as his massive struggles against the 68 lefties he faced, who hit a combined .316/.426/.471/.897 against the Texan. On the other side of the coin, Shawn was death to righties, holding them to a .152/.244/.207/.453 line.

Those lefty struggles not withstanding, the future is exceptionally bright for Clayton Kershaw‘s former teammate. Tolleson will have a prominent role in the pen going forward — whether that role begins at the outset of 2013 or not –  and a young pen featuring Jansen/Tolleson/Rodriguez/Guerra should have fans excited.

Randy Choate

Acquired in the Hanley Ramirez deal, Choate arrived with the reputation of a lefty specialist (.201/.278/.252/.530 career) and continued to dominate his brethren in 2012, limiting them to a .158/.243/.190/.433 slash line.

Though he held lefties down in 2012, Choate was mediocre overall after arriving, posting a 4.89 FIP, 4.16 SIERA, and a negative WAR (-0.1). Most troubling was his propensity for issuing free passes, to the tune of 6.08 per nine in his 36 appearances.

Paco Rodriguez

Just 21 and fresh out of college in the spring of 2012, Paco Rodriguez found himself in 11 games down the stretch and whiffed a very impressive 8.1 per nine over those 6.2 innings. He posted a 3.09 FIP and 4.17 SIERA — as well as a .143/.200/.133/.333 slash line against lefties — in his very small sample size of a career, and holds the distinction of being the first 2012 draftee to debut in The Show.

Rodriguez enters 2013 with just north of 25 professional innings under his belt, and could very likely open 2013 on the major-league roster. Paco’s immediate future hinges on Elbert’s health, the signing of some other free agent lefty specialist, and his 2013 Spring Training performance.

While he has stuff to improve upon (like his control), if he can solidify a spot in the pen he would provide the Dodgers with another lefty and a cheap bullpen option with a ton of upside.

Jamey Wright

Jamey Wright, who made the team out of Spring Training after signing a minor-league deal, surprised most with a solid campaign, surpassing expectations in his 66 appearances and 67.2 innings pitched.

Wright fanned 7.18 per nine while posting a 3.39 FIP and 3.15 SIERA. His splits were quite wacky all the way around, as he allowed southpaws to get on-base more, but righties knocked him around in terms of extra-base hits (.252/.365/.230/.595 versus LH & .283/.337/.329/.666 versus RH).

As alluded to above, Wright did struggle with his control, as he allowed around 4.0 BB/9. He did a great job, however, of keeping the ball in the park — 0.27 HR/9 — which saved him from those walks becoming more damaging. Hitters actually benefited from a bit of luck against him with a .324 BABIP, but Wright’s strong propensity for inducing ground balls (67.3%) and infield popups (12.0% IFFB) allowed him to escape his control problems relatively unscathed.

Having lived off minor-league deals, which he turned into major-league roster spots, for most of the past decade, Wright will head into 2012 — his age-38 season — with a strong likelihood of obtaining a major-league contract. Earning just under $1.5 million last year, Wright will probably receive a small raise, and the Dodgers could do a lot worse.

Odds & Ends

Matt Guerrier spent most of 2012 on the shelf with right elbow inflammation, but managed to return late in the season and appeared in 16 games totaling 14 innings. It did not go well. He pitched to a 6.31 FIP and 4.86 SIERA while walking seven, hitting a batter, and allowing a total of 16 baserunners, six earned runs, and 56 total bases against.

He has a year remaining — at $3.75 million — on the ridiculous three-year deal that Ned Colletti signed him to in late-2010. Whether he has a place in the bullpen though, considering the superior arms around him, is another story entirely.

—–

Josh Lindblom, prior to being dealt to Philadelphia in the Shane Victorino trade, struggled despite some solid peripherals following a breakout 2011. Though he struck out 8.12/9 IP while walking 3.40/9 IP, Lindblom put up a 5.07 FIP, though his SIERA was a fine 3.66.

What really killed him was the long-ball, as following a 2011 in which he didn’t allow a single homer in almost 30 innings, Josh was touched up for nine dingers before being traded.

—–

I honestly forgot Mike MacDougal was a Dodger in 2012, but he began the year on a ludicrous guaranteed one-year major-league deal. He quickly flamed out, lasting seven games and 5.2 innings too long. In that short time, he allowed 15 baserunners, five earned runs, and 32 total bases.

=====

Greg Zakwin is the founder of the site Plaschke Thy Sweater Is Argyle. Follow him on Twitter @ArgyledPlaschke.

The Dodgers have signed free-agent infielder Aaron Miles and asked for unconditional release waivers on right-handed reliever Mike MacDougal, who was designated for assignment last Thursday when Ronald Belisario was activated.

How does a player like Miles price himself out of the free agent market? How delusional was he, exactly?

“Oh ho ho! Albert Pujols got paid $240 million this off-season, and his WAR was only six times higher than mine, so it’s $40 million or bust for me in 2012!”

Fail.

Then there’s the Mike MacDougal news, which you may be celebrating about, until you realize that Todd Coffey has somehow managed to be worse.

—–

In “oh well” injury news, Juan Rivera is going to be out for a while.

Dodgers outfielder Juan Rivera has a ruptured left hamstring tendon and could be out as long as two months, trainer Sue Falsone said on Friday.

Rivera — who had been hobbled by hamstring problems for weeks but felt a pop sliding into third base on Tuesday night and was placed on the disabled list on Wednesday — has a rupture where the tendon inserts into the knee. Falsone said it is an unusual baseball injury and there’s a medical debate whether surgery is appropriate.

“We will re-evaluate after two weeks and see where we’re at,” Falsone said. “[Rivera] did some exercises today and was pain-free. The best case is that he’s ready to return in 15 days, but I don’t think that’s what we’re looking at. The worst case is six to eight weeks. He will play this season, for sure.”

In “aw shit” injury news, Jerry Hairston Jr. won’t be back for a while.

The Dodgers placed infielder Jerry Hairston on the 15-day disabled list on Friday with a strained left hamstring and recalled infielder Justin Sellers from Triple-A Albuquerque.

“It would be a foolish thing to go out there and blow it out and miss two months,” said Hairston. “I blew out the right one and was out three or four weeks. This won’t take that long.

Can you imagine a bench of Aaron Miles, Justin Sellers, Adam Kennedy, and Matt Treanor?

I mean … seriously?

On a first place team.

Seriously.

Much to the relief of Dodgers fans everywhere, it was Mike MacDougal who was designed for assignment to make room for the returning Ronald Belisario.

ROSTER MOVE: The @Dodgers today designated RHP Mike MacDougal for assignment while MLB reinstated Ronald Belisario from the Restricted List.

— Los Angeles Dodgers (@Dodgers) May 3, 2012

It’s a relief because, as I discussed before, the bullpen was about to get crowded and moves were going to have to be made. The Dodgers could have gone the easy route, by demoting Josh Lindblom, but instead choose to keep their best pitchers around. Maybe a no-brainer in theory, but given the Dodgers history in practice, I was pleasantly surprised.

With that said, even Belisario’s future is in doubt when Matt Guerrier is ready to return. When Belisario last pitched in the MLB in 2010, he posted a 5.04 ERA, and he had a 7.71 ERA in the 4.1 innings he pitched in the minors this year. Granted, how well he’s throwing is more important than his performance at this juncture, but it’s not a stretch to say he could be the guy who goes for Guerrier in a couple of weeks.

Still though, even if that gets sorted, there’s the issue of whether Shawn Tolleson could help the club right now. Between three levels in 2011, he put up a 1.17 ERA with 105 strikeouts and 18 walks in 69 innings. In 2012, he has a 0.90 ERA at AA with 18 strikeouts and 3 walks. By all accounts, the scouting reports seem to hold up, and while he might not have closer stuff, he has 7th/8th inning guy written all over him, much like Lindblom did, which is more than I can say at this point for Jamey Wright and Todd Coffey.

Despite fan perception, the bullpen isn’t actually a problem area, as it’s been adequately middle of the road thus far. However, it can get better if the Dodgers want it to, and since they’ve shown a change in their process through keeping Lindblom around in favor of an ineffective veteran, I would hope they don’t show hesitation when it comes to Tolleson as well.

With Javy Guerra getting smashed in the face, I have a question: why was he allowed to stay in the game?

I trust the trainers and coaches, and I’m sure Guerra felt he was fine, but I’m not so sure it was the correct move.

We can all put ourselves in Guerra’s shoes, as we’ve all been terrified at some point by sudden movements. So we know what happens when our adrenaline gets pumping and we start to feel like a completely different person. Well, now imagine that you’re in front of ~30,000 people, playing professional baseball, it’s the ninth inning, you just lost the game yesterday, you’re on the verge of losing the game today, and you just got hit flush in the jaw with a 100 mph liner.

I don’t care how “alright” he may have been, he would have to be superhuman to truly put all of that, along with the pain, out of his mind and pitch as he normally would, no? And that doesn’t even take into account the fact that Guerra had not been pitching exceptionally well of late to begin with, so why risk both the game and his health?

Either way, I know people are vilifying him for the loss, but it amazes me that he managed to pitch relatively normal following the blow.

—–

Don Mattingly, Greg Harrel, A.J. Ellis, and Guerra himself all say that he wasn’t affected by the line drive.

Manager Don Mattingly said he considered removing Guerra immediately after the line drive off his face, but decided to leave his closer in the game after Guerra was cleared by assistant trainer Greg Harrel. Mattingly, Guerra, and catcher A.J. Ellis all insisted that Guerra was not affected, physically, by the line drive.

Physically.

Mentally though? Has to be tough.

Guerra received concussion tests, which he passed, after the game. His jaw was visibly swollen as he spoke to reporters.

At least he’s okay, as he’s going to be a valuable part of the bullpen, regardless of what role he has.

Guerra has three losses, including two blown saves, in his last five outings over the last nine days, but Mattingly bristled at questions about the closer role. “Javy is throwing the ball good for us. Nothing really changes in my eyes,” Mattingly said.

“You can sit there and question all you want. Our ballclub has confidence in Javy. The game will tell us what to do with him. If he has trouble there, we’ll put him in a different spot,” Mattingly said. “Two days ago or three days ago it’s not even a question. After two outings do you think I’m going to flip-flop? I’m not.”

After thinking about it, I’m actually fine with the decision.

Kenley Jansen has always been the superior pitcher, but him and Josh Lindblom are best served putting out fires in the 6th, 7th, and 8th innings. Granted, Guerra can’t keep blowing games like this, but I’m not so sure this string of appearances has to force a change either.

—–

Eric Stephen of True Blue LA reports that Nate Eovaldi is coming to town.

Nathan Eovaldi was pulled after just one inning in his start Wednesday night for Double A Chattanooga, and speculation is that he is on his way to Los Angeles. We just don’t know which pitcher he will replace. Mattingly responded “Yes,” when asked if there were other injuries on his pitching staff, but declined further comment.

Let the speculation begin.

My money is on Mike MacDougal. You?

—–

Juan Rivera and Aaron Harang should be okay.

Rivera, who strained a left hamstring running out a sixth-inning infield single, was out of the lineup Wednesday night but took batting practice. Manager Don Mattingly said the outfielder won’t be placed on the disabled list if he is able to pinch-hit and run for himself by the weekend.

“He was getting tonight off anyway after playing five or six straight, and Sue [Falsone, trainer] said he was able to do more than she thought he would,” said Mattingly. “He’s day to day. If it lingers, we’ll think about doing something different.”

Harang said he did not expect to miss his scheduled bullpen session on Friday in preparation for his next start, Monday in Denver. He fouled a pitch off his foot in a third-inning at-bat, and it swelled as the game went on. He was removed after six innings.

You tell me whether that’s good or bad.

With yet another curiously timed injury to a bullpen arm, this time Matt Guerrier, the Dodgers have managed to avoid making a bullpen decision for at least 15 more days.

Dodgers reliever Matt Guerrier, signed in part to be the bullpen workhorse, was placed on the 15-day disabled list Tuesday because of right elbow flexor tendinitis.

Guerrier had an MRI, which revealed no issues with the ligament that leads to Tommy John surgery. He received a platelet-rich plasma injection, will rest for several days, then begin tossing.

The Dodgers called up left-hander Michael Antonini from Triple-A Albuquerque to replace Guerrier in the bullpen.

Michael Antonini was called up from AAA to replace Guerrier for a spell until Todd Coffey returns.

While this game can continue on for a bit, the Dodgers are going to have to cut somebody loose eventually. Especially with Ronald Belisario on the way back.

Troubled Dodgers reliever Ronald Belisario will start a Minor League rehab assignment next week and is eligible to return from a 25-game suspension for violating Major League Baseball’s drug policy on May 4.

Belisario, however, is out of options and the Dodgers must decide if he’s ready to help the club on that date. If not, they cannot send him to the Minor Leagues unless he clears waivers, but he could be taken by another club.

With both Belisario and Guerrier due to return, that leaves the team with Javy Guerra, Kenley Jansen, Guerrier, Scott Elbert, Belisario, Coffey, Mike MacDougal, Jamey Wright, and Josh Lindblom.

Out of that group, two guys have to go, because the Dodgers have a weak bench as it is, and carrying 13 pitchers is just asinine (if they do decide on that, I’ll be sure to have something to say about it).

One has to figure that Guerra, Jansen, Guerrier (big contract), Elbert (only lefty), and Belisario (otherwise why go through the headache?) are going to stick around. So that leaves Coffey, MacDougal, Wright, and Lindblom to battle it out for two spots. Unless Lindblom is struggling by then, he should be kept, which sets up tough decisions on two veteran relievers that were guaranteed contracts. And that situation doesn’t even account for Shawn Tolleson in AA, Josh Wall in AAA, and Michael Antonini in AAA. Much less the likes of Nate Eovaldi as a potential contributor and Rubby De La Rosa in a few months.

At some point, a significant decision is going to have to be made, so the Dodgers are only delaying the inevitable.

Whatever the case may be, I just hope the decision is made based on what’s best for the team and not because the GM decided that the best course of action was to go 12 to 14 deep in the bullpen and neglect depth (or starters) at three or four positions.

Kenley Jansen

Kenley Jansen is the epitome of an under-appreciated fireman in the pen, putting out any fire, no matter the size, intensity, or probability for continuation.

Pitching full-time for just about three years, the 24-year-old fireballer fanned an out-of-this-world 16.10 batters per nine innings last season. Yes, he walked a few too many (4.36), but he has plenty of time to improve his control, especially since he’s still learning  to be a pitcher.

A 1.74 FIP, 2.06 tERA, 1.59 SIERA, and 1.04 WHIP are just nails, and Kenley handled both righties and lefties with ease (.156/.264/.200/.464 and .163/.269/.194/.463, respectively). His year was even more impressive when you consider two things: he had three atrocious outings that skewed already amazing numbers, and he battled injury and a heart murmur (which reoccurred this Spring but doesn’t appear to be serious).

—–

Kenley should always be used in the most pressing situation, not in your conventional ninth inning, three-run-lead save situation. Bring him in to face the heart of the opponent’s lineup with the game close regardless of whether it’s the seventh or eighth or ninth. That’s what firemen do: they put out the most dangerous fires.

Oh, and just for kicks, let’s quickly look at his July and September from last year:

July – 10 IP, 6 Baserunners, 17 K/4 BB, 0 HR

September – 13.2 IP, 11 Baserunners, 32 K/3 BB, 0 HR

Just sick.

Javy Guerra

Javy Guerra entered 2011 as just another arm in the Dodgers pool of pitchers. He closed out the campaign as the closer, and with many fans perceiving him to be a better pitcher than he actually is. Guerra is good, but not great, and he’s the closer by virtue of everybody else before him in 2011 being hurt and/or terrible.

Guerra’s minor league career was solid, with a lot of strikeouts and a lot of walks. He debuted in May, and proceeded to put up a two-month period featuring a shiny ERA and weak peripherals (2.35 in 15.1 innings, with 9 K, 5 BB, and 22 baserunners allowed). Oddly enough, he posted a .327 BABIP against during this time.

The next three months don’t do much to tell us how dominant Guerra could ever be, as he allowed 36 baserunners in 31.1 innings. He walked 13, allowed two homers, and fanned 29 in this time frame. Again, not atrocious numbers, but nothing to get overly excited about, especially considering his BABIP in this period was .232 against.

—–

Guerra, at just 26 years old, is definitely a guy I’d like to have in the pen. He has upside, is cheap, and has shown the ability in the minors, and for stretches of time in the bigs, to miss bats. In fact, I want a guy like him to be the closer while the better pitcher – Jansen – is placed in higher leverage situations and asked to get the opponent’s better offensive players out

I just don’t want Guerra, based off of the outdated Saves statistic, to get more credit than Kenley. I’m a simple man with simple desires.

Scott Elbert

Heading into 2011 with the reputation as an injury-prone, command lacking, questionable makeup having potential bust, Scott Elbert ended the year by cementing himself as a fixture in the Dodgers remade pen. Taking over the left-handed reliever role from the also injury-riddled Hong Chih Kuo, Elbert fanned 9.18 per nine innings while issuing 3.78 BB/9 IP, an improvement on his small sample size MLB career and lengthier minor league tenure.

Elbert has always had great stuff and posted big strikeout numbers in the minors, but could never get a footing in The Show. He was only given 26.1 innings in his previous three stints with the big league club to impress in, and certainly didn’t, but the potential was always there if he could harness his stuff and stay healthy.

—–

With that great promise coming to fruition in ’11, and room to still grow and improve, Scott will be expected to shut down lefties, who only hit a putrid .191/.267/.227/.494 against him last year. Elbert can certainly hold his own against righties (.255/.344/.328/.672 in 2011), but like most southpaws, he’s much, much better against his hitting brethren. Elbert will probably be the only lefty in the pen to start 2012, and with upside and talent, his future in Los Angeles is finally clear.

Ned Colletti’s Motley Crew Of Veteran Goodness

Mike MacDougal is back on a guaranteed (!) one-year deal following a shiny ERA, terrible everything else season. In 57 innings that had other teams frothing at the mouth, Mike whiffed just 6.47 per nine while issuing 4.58 free passes each nine he took the mound.

But hey, he had a 2.02 ERA and was an experienced vet. That totally makes up for the 4.33 tERA, inability to miss bats, and the taking up of a roster spot that would be better served on Josh Lindblom.

—–

Matt Guerrier … exists. 6.78 K/9, 3.39 BB/9, 3.43 FIP, and all.

—–

Todd Coffey received a guaranteed one-year deal, and coming off of a 3.41 FIP season, he could actually be useful if used against righties only. Coffey was death to right-handers in 2011, allowing just a .193/.250/.255/.505 slash line against while whiffing three times as many as he walked. Of course, conversely, lefties murdered him, mashing to the tune of a .338/.404/.416/.820 line, and they drew nine walks while only going down swinging 11 times.

So yeah. Use him against righties, and never let him try to sprint his guts out to face Carlos Gonzalez or Lance Berkman or even Juan Pierre‘s limp bat, for that matter.

All of that said, would I have signed Coffey? No. But I’m not Ned Colletti.

—–

Ronald Belisario is back! After he serves a suspension for a drug-related incident, that is. He’ll almost never be able to replicate his BABIP-fueled 2009 where he fanned over 8.0/9 IP, but hey, another bullpen arm could never hurt.

Granted, he’s out of options, so when he does return, someone has to go, and anyone not named MacDougal should not be replaced by Belisario. Heck, not even Coffey, who’s been pretty decent against righties for a long time.

But seriously. Get rid of MacDougal.

—–

Blake Hawksworth, once he returns from injury, must be on the 25-man roster.

Why? Because his sister is Erin Hawksworth.

Enough said.

Dylan Hernandez of the Los Angeles Times reports that Clayton Kershaw will throw a bullpen session on Friday after getting his original bullpen session postponed due a sore back on Wednesday. Additionally, Mike MacDougal postponed a bullpen session due to a back injury.

Ah, Spring Training!

—–

Ken Gurnick of MLB.com reports that the Los Angeles Dodgers have claimed Matt Angle off waivers from the Baltimore Orioles and moved Rubby De La Rosa to the 60-day disabled list.

My question? Why him?

He’s a 25-year-old outfielder that hit .177/.293/.266/.559 in the majors last year, and only .271/.347/.344/.692 in the minors. Plus, Ned Colletti signed enough outfielders to have five or six of them on the roster, and all the Dodgers have in the minors is potential reserve outfielders.

Confusing.

—–

Don Mattingly thinks Chad Billingsley can do much better, which isn’t surprising given his 2011, but the mechanics part off the story is interesting.

“I think there’s more there,” manager Don Mattingly said. “Honey [pitching coach Rick Honeycutt] thinks there’s more there. I think Chad thinks there’s more there. That’s the thing we want to help him with, just to get a little better.”

According to Honeycutt, scouting director Logan White provided video of Billingsley pitching in high school, when he dominated Ohio preps, leading to his first-round selection by the Dodgers. Back then, he kept his foot under his body as he lifted his lead leg. In recent years, he kicks out the foot before shifting his body weight from right leg to left. He worked during the winter on regaining his high school form.

“I’m trying to keep my foot closer and that allows me to be more consistent in my rhythm and timing,” Billingsley said. “We looked at some video and noticed that it was different from a few years ago. It doesn’t seem like a big thing, but a little adjustment can make a difference.

“It’s not really about confidence. My confidence is fine. It’s more like when you’re pitching or hitting and it doesn’t feel effortless. There are times when I feel I have to force my body to get into position and I have to work at it. I fight myself, kind of. We all try to throw the fastball down and away. For me, to do that, I feel like I’m throwing across my body and it leads to cutting the ball.”

Would love to have that video of him in high school so I can compare, but it’s still something worth monitoring.

Enjoyed how he threw in that part about his confidence just so that people can get off that schtick for once.

Dylan Hernandez of the Los Angeles Times reports that right-handed reliever Mike MacDougal will return to the Los Angeles Dodgers in 2012 on a one-year deal worth $650,000. The team has an option for 2013 worth $2.35 million with a buyout of $350,000, meaning he’s guaranteed a cool million dollars.

—

To begin, let me say that I actually like the deal for reasons you’ll read down below.

MacDougal was a good signing for the club last year, posting a 2.05 ERA over 57 innings, all for $500,000. However, his underlying skills were generally mediocre, clocking in at 4.02 xFIP and 3.80 SIERA. Given that those are the two statistics which best correlate with year-to-year ERA projections, and given that MacDougal will be 35 next season, it’s more than fair to put his ERA in the 3.90-4.00 range for 2012.

Of course, the issue with relievers is that the sample size is so small, even for an entire season, that it’s tough to predict the outcome of any one season. I could easily believe MacDougal repeating his 2011 performance, but he’s just as likely to post an ERA over six with the exact same peripherals as last year.

—

Despite the positive surplus value, I normally don’t like deals like this even if they end up marginally successful because they fill the roster space meant for potentially superior prospects, reduce roster and payroll flexibility, and a winning team doesn’t involve acquiring replacement level players (See: Gwynn, Tony). However, in this case, the main gripe I hear is that Nathan Eovaldi will likely start the year in the minor leagues, and while I agree he would perform better than MacDougal out of the pen in 2012, I think it’s a far better result to have him in the minors refining his off-speed stuff. This is especially true considering I don’t feel he even has a reliable second pitch yet, much less a third.

That specific line of thinking doesn’t mean it’s actually what Ned Colletti was doing (probably not), but since he’s likely on his way out, the ends simply have to justify the means in the short-term.

Dylan Hernandez of the Los Angeles Times reports that yesterday’s rumored trade for a bat is now dead. I’m sure there were some out there who had pipe dreams of getting an impact player in the deal, but honestly, it’s just relief that the Dodgers will not be trading Chad Billingsley for Alfonso Soriano or something ridiculous.

—–

Unfortunately, Ned Colletti did mention the Dodgers might still be making a move in the trade market.

Colletti said the #Dodgers could make a minor trade in the next couple of days.

Hopefully it’s for Chase Headley or I just wasted a bunch of words spelling out his value.

—–

Additionally, Ned Colletti’s fetish for Mike MacDougal lives on.

The #Dodgers will “stay in touch” with Mike MacDougal, Colletti said. Also talking to other relievers but furthest along with MacDougal.

No whammy, no whammy, no whammy!

Ugh.

As with most clubs, the Winter Meetings have been busy for the Dodgers, but while other teams are pursuing impact players, the Dodgers are busy trying to identify the clean garbage at the massive dump.

Ned Colletti revealed that he is looking to upgrade through trade with a position player and would be willing to listen on a reliever.

Dodgers general manager Ned Colletti said he met with a handful of clubs at the Winter Meetings on Tuesday looking for “an upgrade, a position player,” but that he would listen if a club offered a late-inning reliever.

Upgrading a position player makes sense, but given the payroll limitations, I doubt it’s anything good.

As far as listening on a late inning reliever, why? That’s honestly one area where the Dodgers seem to have an endless supply of solid arms and the price of relievers this off-season is insane.

In the first case, he still wants another bat. He wouldn’t say at which position, but it would most likely have to be an outfielder or first baseman. James Loney would seem to be a logical offering in return as he enters his final season before free agency and Colletti often has mentioned the capability of Juan Rivera, Jerry Sands and Adam Kennedy to play first base.

From all indications, it would not be a catcher (where the Dodgers will start A.J. Ellis with Matt Treanor the backup) and he’s seemingly committed at the other five positions with center fielder Matt Kemp, right fielder Andre Ethier, third baseman Juan Uribe, second baseman Mark Ellis and shortstop Dee Gordon.

Without offering a name, he said one player he is targeting has been a starter at his position and would be “payroll neutral,” indicating that either the player he would send would be of similar salary or the other club would pick up part of the incoming salary. Colletti said he didn’t expect a deal while at the Meetings, which end Thursday.

As people like Eric Stephen and Mike Petriello have been discussing on Twitter, it certainly would seem like this might involve a Delmon Young, Carlos Lee, or Alfonso Soriano type. Additionally, since the trade might be payroll neutral, some of the speculated names leaving were James Loney and Chad Billingsley.

Yikes. Let’s hope not.

As for the reliever, Colletti was expected to meet Tuesday night with the agent for Mike MacDougal, who bounced back with a fine season while under the radar after being picked off the scrap heap with a Minor League contract. Colletti said he has had two previous conversations with the agent, but “it might be time to get more serious about it.”

No. Just no.

Colletti did what he had to do last season and he got solid value for Mike MacDougal at a relatively cheap cost. Re-signing him for another year is just pressing your luck and hoping you don’t hit a whammy.

—–

As far as Josh Bard goes, there are conflicting reports.

Jon Heyman of Sports Illustrated says it’s a done deal for 1 year and $750k, while Dylan Hernandez of the Los Angeles Times said a minor league deal was close but then clarified that Bard is not the only catcher the Dodgers are talking to.

I’ll easily take Dylan Hernandez’s report over Jon Heyman’s, so I’ll wait this deal out. However, if it goes through, I become more and more confused as to the direction of the team.

Is the goal of this league to stockpile as many replacement level players as possible or something? I don’t get it.

During the 2010-2011 off-season, the Dodgers aimed to improve on what was an effective unit in 2010 (3.80 FIP/8th In MLB). With all their veteran relievers making their Los Angeles exit, the rest of the potential returning cast consisted primarily of pre-arbitration players making the major league minimum, with only Jonathan Broxton locked into a high paying salary for 2011. The predominantly untested nature of the bullpen didn’t sit well with the Dodgers, so they went out and re-signed Vicente Padilla as a reliever, avoided arbitration with Hong Chih Kuo, traded for Blake Hawksworth, gave Mike MacDougal and Lance Cormier minor league contracts, and made a long term commitment to Matt Guerrier.

While handing out millions to seemingly solid and steady veteran relievers is rarely going to play poorly in the media or among fans, they often prove to be unnecessary and costly additions to the roster. Now the Dodgers bullpen in 2011 has been quite effective as a whole, ranking 8th in the MLB in FIP at 3.58, but were the expensive veteran members all that important to the 2011 unit’s success?

-

*50% fWAR (FIP) & 50% rWAR (ERA)
*5,000,000 Dollars Per Win
*Salary Data From True Blue LA
*SV=Surplus Value

Guerra, Jansen, Elbert, Lindblom, and Troncoso are all pre-arbitration farm system arms who have combined for $11,134,000 in SV. MacDougal was given a minor league contract with a mere $500,000 major league option and netted the Dodgers $2,750,000 in SV. Hawksworth, despite his -$676,000 total, was acquired in a trade that rid the Dodgers of Ryan Theriot, who is currently putting up a 0.1 WAR at a $3,300,000 salary for a -$2,800,000 SV, so feel free to credit Hawksworth with that.

Guerrier was the big money free agent signing, and he was actually decently productive in 2011. Unfortunately, the only reason he clocks in at positive value is because of the deferred nature of his overall contract (4 Y/12 M), so he’ll have to get better in a hurry if he wants to continue breaking even. The more likely scenario is that it ends up being a neutral to poor overall transaction.

The four pitchers who rank the lowest happen to include three of the top bullpen salaries, with Broxton, Kuo, and Padilla combining for -$17,725,000 in SV. Also clocking in at the bottom of the pile is Cormier (-$4,050,000 SV), who inexplicably made $800,000 in the majors and was inexplicably allowed to pitch 13.2 innings before the Dodgers realized how terrible he was.

Overall, it’s quite clear where the value lies in the Dodgers pen, as the data demonstrates that the most productive and most valuable members of the 2011 bullpen have been the farm system arms, and more specifically, those making 500k and below, basically around the major league minimum.

-

While the status quo maintains that locking down relievers with track records of success to million dollar deals will lead to overall bullpen stability, it would do the Dodgers and their fans well going forward to remember that money spent hardly guarantees productivity and success, especially with a commodity as volatile as bullpen arms.

Over the course of the 2011 season, the Dodgers relief corps has proved that bullpen arms are indeed a fickle and fungible group, with production to be found from a multitude of sources, and that the most value out of the pen is commonly derived from those making the least. Sticking with cheap team controlled building blocks in the bullpen can be highly effective, and the money used to sign costly relievers can frequently be better used elsewhere.

—

Published @ True Blue LA as well.