Despite all the denials, Andre Ethier‘s name continues to come up in trade rumors, and given what I’ve heard, I don’t think it’s just noise. The latest has him heading to the Mariners, and it’s via ESPN‘s Jason Churchill (1, 2, 3).

Hearing Mariners have progressed in trade talks for a hitter. Indications it’s Ethier. Multiple players involved.

@nbynwms very possible. Heard 7 or more players could be in it… Two from LAD, 4 from sea. That leaves at least one player from 3rd team

@joshuacarpino there will be cash involved

If you don’t trust Churchill, then Mike Petriello has said that he heard as much on Ethier’s situation.

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Anyway, given that information, one has to surmise that the deal might look something like this:

Seattle Mariners Get: Andre Ethier/Chris Capuano/Cash
Los Angeles Dodgers Get: Brendan Ryan/Franklin Gutierrez/Prospects

From the Mariners perspective, they’re getting a solid ~2 WAR pitcher in Capuano with some upside and some risk for the price of $6 million with a 2014 mutual option ($1 million buyout). In this market, that’s a bargain and exactly what you want for a pitcher like Capuano, as he’d probably garner a three-year deal as a free agent. In Ethier, they’re getting a flawed but solidly above-average regular worth between 2.5-3.5 WAR, but he’s locked up through his decline years. He has little trade value with his current contract, but there’s still the cash aspect to examine.

The cash part of the deal is where it gets interesting, as the quality of prospects will likely depend on the amount of money taken on by the Dodgers. While I have heard people throw around names like James Paxton, Taijuan Walker, and Danny Hultzen, I doubt the Dodgers can coerce the Mariners into parting with any of that trio unless they eat almost all of Ethier’s contract. In a more realistic scenario, they would part with a couple solid prospects, and then what the Mariners would need is enough money to make Ethier an asset again, so perhaps something in the $20 million to $25 million range.

Other players the Mariners are parting with include Brendan Ryan and Franklin Gutierrez. Ryan is an underrated above-average regular, but he’s not the shortstop of the future for the team, as he hits free agency in 2014. Gutierrez has potential as a regular, but hasn’t been healthy in two years and also hits free agency in 2014.

All considered, if the Mariners can get a solid chunk of money in the deal and only have to surrender a couple B-/C+ prospects, the trade shouldn’t be a problem from their perspective.

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As for the Dodgers, this deal makes no sense for them on the surface. After all, Ethier (plus cash) is a productive player and Capuano is a solid starter. Additionally, the return of Ryan and Gutierrez seems light on present impact, which is what the Dodgers are looking to gain.

A closer examination, though, reveals how it could all make sense. For starters, Ethier has basically zero trade value because of his five-year/$85 million contract. Nick Swisher, a similar player that I compared Ethier with earlier, got a four-year/$56 million deal on the open market, so you can see the overpay there in clear and present terms. As such, the amount of cash will be what actually determines how much of an asset Ethier is to the Mariners. As far as Capuano goes, he has essentially no utility to the Dodgers in his current situation due to the sheer number of starters they have. Therefore, the return of decent but unspectacular players with expiring contracts, along with average prospects, actually makes sense.

Moreover, losing Ethier is part of the plan for the Dodgers, as we assume they would then go on to sign Michael Bourn. In an earlier comparison between him and Ethier, I found that he could be an immediate 1-2 win upgrade, so that would be a clear win for the team as it is.

Then there’s the other pieces to consider, who are actually worth more to the Dodgers than they seem. Ryan is a shortstop that can’t hit a lick, but is still a ~2.5 WAR player because of his consistently plus-plus defense across all defensive metrics and … well … if you watch the highlight reels like I do. His addition would hypothetically allow Hanley Ramirez to slide to third and Luis Cruz to become a super-sub type, which fixes a lot of the problems on the bench. Replacing Hanley with Ryan at short could be a ~30 run upgrade defensively in itself. Gutierrez also excels defensively, but has struggled to stay healthy. He can play a plus-plus center field and would be an outstanding fourth outfielder, as I think he could be a solid regular if he could ever stay healthy. As it stands though, he could end up being anywhere between a 0 to 3 WAR player. His acquisition would eliminate yet another need for the Dodgers bench and provide a solid contingency plan for every starter.

Now throw in a couple solid prospects as the cherry on top, and the Dodgers have just upgraded their starting lineup, resolved one of their starter dilemmas, filled two holes, extended their bench, and added to a sagging farm system.

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Granted, this is a lot of moving parts, but I struggle to see another way this works out between the two teams, if it ever does. I honestly like the trade for both sides in this proposed scenario, as I think both teams would get what they’ve been wanting.

Generally speaking, this is obviously an incredibly inefficient way to do business for the Dodgers, but if the money doesn’t matter, then these sets of moves would clearly improve the roster like they want. I do still have minor lingering concerns about where exactly the money ends, especially looking toward the future, but the details of the potential television contract have allayed my worries for at least a little while. Besides, flags fly forever and they’ve already crossed the point of no return, so why not go all out with the championship chasing while the opportunity exists?

Nowhere to start here but with Andre Ethier rumors, right? Well, last time we left off on this rumbling, I was tackling a scenario where Ethier gets dealt and the Dodgers sign Nick Swisher, but there was one other frequently brought up possibility: Michael Bourn.

The Dodgers could pursue free agent center fielder Michael Bourn if they trade Andre Ethier, Rosenthal writes.

Bourn is an above-average hitter who has put up a 98 OPS+ in his four seasons as a full-time starter (.280/.348/.378/.726). He has never put up a season with an OPS higher than .739, but he’s still considered a marquee free agent because defense and baserunning count as well. He’s been worth around a win a year both on the basepaths and in the field, which results in a player consistently clocking in between 4-5 WAR.

For the Dodgers specific situation, there’s the potential added benefit of moving Matt Kemp to right field, which could reduce his risk for injury, since his bat is where basically all of his value lies. So unlike Swisher, Bourn isn’t an almost lateral move with minute benefits in platoon splits. Rather, he marks an improvement of a win or two and allows the Dodgers to field an optimal positional alignment.

As such, this would be interesting to me even if it came with a bit more risk in terms of length of contract and dollars. He’s headed into his age 30 season, and I don’t expect him to command anything less than a five-year deal, so certainly there’s reason to worry. Instinctively, I have concern about handing out significant contracts to players who don’t hit well (like Carl Crawford), but everything in the track record indicates this would be a significant upgrade for the team immediately, so I’d have no problem with the moves being done.

With all that said though, there have been frequent denials…

But even that scenario doesn’t seem to have a great chance to happen. “Barring injury,’” one Dodgers connected person maintained, “there is about a 100 percent chance Andre Ethier will be the [Dodgers] Opening day right fielder.”

…so why bother addressing this stuff, right? Mainly because I’d say it’s hard to rule out anything for the Dodgers right now, especially something that has the possibility of improving the team dramatically.

Besides, does anybody actually believe reports that the Dodgers are basically unwilling to listen on Ethier?

#redsox inquired about andre ethier at the start of winter & were told “not available.” more evidence he’s staying in LA

I don’t. So while getting all the moving parts to work out would still shock me, I think it’s not as impossible as represented.

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On the other front, the Dodgers are in on a reliever of some sort, with Joel Hanrahan being the leading rumor.

Joel Hanrahan has saved 76 games with a 2.24 ERA for the Pirates over the past two seasons, but his name has surfaced in numerous trade rumors this offseason and now Danny Knobler of CBS Sports tweets that the Buccos are pushing to trade him (Twitter link). The Dodgers are one possibility, according to Knobler.

The Dodgers are not alone though, as there’s competition for him, apparently.

The Dodgers are showing interested in Pirates closer Joel Hanrahan, but they have a little company. The Red Sox are said to have an interest as well.

Not seeing what the point of this is.

A career 3.74 ERA/3.62 FIP reliever who was trending in the correct direction until his age 30 season in 2012 is not exactly what I would want to see in a back-end type. I mean, people already complain about Javy Guerra and he has a career 2.45 ERA and 3.32 FIP, plus he makes the league minimum.

I bring up Javy’s name because given a seven-man bullpen, Guerra is the one likely to be bumped to AAA in the event of Hanrahan’s acquisition, and there’s certainly a strong case to be made that it would be a downgrade to the bullpen. Certainly Hanrahan would add depth, but he projects to make ~$8 million next year, and no matter how wealthy the Dodgers are, spending that much for a neutral move and depth seems a bit much.