For better or for worse, the Dodgers offense has basically followed Matt Kemp’s lead since 2010. Following a breakout 2009 and the departure of Manny Ramirez, Kemp slumped miserably in 2010 and the team’s offense followed suit. He then single-handedly buoyed a terrible lineup in 2011, and he was well on his way towards doing the same in 2012 before injuries struck.

The pressure seemed to be off Kemp after the new ownership took over this past year, however, as they aggressively pursued trades and free agents to make sure the offense would no longer be a one-man show. Unfortunately, thus far in 2013, we’re seeing that the offense may still live and die with Kemp.

His struggles thus far in 2013 go back to the 2012 injuries, and while his hamstring caused him to miss time and sapped his running game, it was his shoulder injury that’s still lingering and causing him issues today. It was, after all, a torn labrum worse than the medical staff anticipated, and after months of pretending that everything was all good, Kemp finally copped to struggling with his shoulder.

I talked at length to Matt Kemp recently. He cannot fully extend his swing. Whether it’s a mental or a physical issue, he doesn’t know. He had two teammates experience the same thing after shoulder surgery, and they have told him time is the only answer.

So that sounds bad.

In reality, though, Kemp’s problem are likely a mixture of physical and mental. I honestly don’t believe he’s injured, it’s just that the shoulder is not 100% recovered (think Dwight Howard’s back). I also believe the mental aspect is that he altered his swing last year to account for his shoulder weakness, and now we’re seeing the residual effect of that in the form of him not being able to find his mechanics.

Speaking of mechanics, towards the end of that 2010 season, I noticed a severe yet correctable mechanical flaw in Kemp’s swing. Now I see correctable flaws again, and it’s not exactly a new revelation. His swing change is something I’ve been monitoring for at least a month now, and others have mentioned it as well, but I’ve putting off doing analysis on it. However, given the public admission of the health of his shoulder yesterday, I figured now was as good a time as ever to take a look at the swing.

—–

Timing

2012

2013

-

2012

2013

All of these stills are taken from the frame prior to when his foot leaves the ground to initiate his timing device. It should immediately jump out at you that he’s starting his approach much earlier now than he was before.

It’s as if he feels the need for his timing to be early because he doesn’t trust his swing enough to get there in time.

2012

2013

These pictures are taken at footstrike when the heel touches the ground. Both of the pitches end up middle/away and he’s swinging at them in the same appropriate manner.

They are very similar at a glance, but there’s one glaring difference, which is the lead shoulder (the surgically repaired one), desperately trying to escape towards the third-base dugout in the 2013 cap.

Visually, I suppose it’s possible to argue this, but look close enough and you can see there’s a difference between squared up Kemp above and pulling with his lead shoulder Kemp below. If you can’t see the shoulder pulling, look at the difference in his hips and the angle of the bat.

—–

Swing Path

2012

2013

2012

2013

This is going to be a bit harder to show visually. I think most can understand what I’m trying to communicate, but if it’s confusing, please ask questions.

Basically, what he’s doing now is reaching at balls on the outer half and jamming himself on inside pitches. The catalyst of all this is him trying to clear his lead shoulder, because as he tries to do that, he loses his bat path and bat speed.

2012

2013

1) We just went over this, but in the before image, he’s square and ready to explode. In the after image, he’s already starting to drift away from the plate. Still, I show this again because how each piece of the swing connects is important.

2012

2013

2) The before picture has perfect connection. He’s driving his right shoulder to the ball rather than letting his lead shoulder dictate the path of his hands.

Contrast that with him in the after picture, where his swing is already getting loose (hands getting away from the body). To compensate for the lead shoulder pulling, he has to drop his back shoulder to cheat. Why? Because most of your bat speed comes for you core and lower half, so when he takes that out of the equation, the upper half needs to compensate for that loss. Having an upper body dominant swing is not a compliment because of swings like this.

2012

2013

3) You can’t see it clearly here, but watch the difference in paths the bats take through the zone after this. Notice that the 2013 swing is ahead of the 2012 swing because of everything I’ve mentioned thus far.

2012

2013

4) Looks similar, right? Sure, except notice that in the before image, the ball is in contact with the sweetspot of the bat and he’s in connection right down the barrel. Also note that his hands are still going through the hitting area.

In the after image, he’s in a similar position, albeit in a more open and upright posture, but the ball isn’t even in the hitting zone yet and the bat path has already begun to cut across the zone. At this point, he’s getting it off the end of the bat or nothing. Notice how his hands have already exited the zone and are beginning to fold and cut across his body.

2012

2013

5) Now the aftermath. The 2012 pitch is crushed, as the posture, balance, and connection is all there. Shoulders are on a plane towards his usual high finish.

The 2013 pitch? Well, that looks odd, right? It’s because that’s the hands rolling over, which he had to do because that’s all he had left. The only way he was getting to that ball after his hands got out in front of his body was to roll over hard with his hands and wrists. It results in a chopping grounder to the left side with a ton of top spin because the bat hits the top of the ball as it’s turning over.

You can see why Kemp’s chances of hitting the ball hard with this swing are terrible. The power is gone a couple frames into the swing, and the bat head isn’t traveling through the zone, but rather cutting through the zone because he has to flick at the pitch with his upper body only.

Additionally, as a briefly mentioned, he carries his hands through the hitting zone ahead of his body, failing to let the ball travel and effectively making it so that he has no plate coverage.

How is he to hit the ball hard on the fat part of the bat when he’s already dead to rights before the ball even gets into the hitting zone. In all three of these plate appearances, the best outcome would a groundball single or maybe a bloop double over first base.

Notice that propensity he now has for hitting groundballs to third and fouling pitches off his foot? They were things he rarely did when he was right in 2011/2012 because he wasn’t casting his hands out to get around balls like he’s doing now.

—–

Finish

2012

2013

In one, he’s cutting across, which leads to a lower finish, in the other, he’s finishing high. I mean, it used to be his trademark of sorts, right?

Now you know the reason you rarely see it anymore.

—–

Options

Trade Him

No.

1) Even if you assume he sucks, his contract is too big for even the Dodgers to eat.

2) If you think he’s decent but not worth it, selling now would be the dumbest timing ever, much like it would have been in 2010.

3) If you’re like me and think he’ll regain most of his form, then this is laughable. So I’ll laugh.

Bench/DL Kemp

While I recognize this is a popular theory after reading that Kemp admitted to having shoulder difficulty, I don’t think benching him or resting him or sending him out to rehab will help.

1) Benching him is silly. He’s trying to fix stuff, and he needs the chance to repeat a correct swing, not sit on the bench imagining it.

2) Resting him wouldn’t do much, IMO. His shoulder needs to get loose, it’s not hurt like it was at the end of 2012. He’s actively trying to get back to what he was last year, and resting him isn’t going to do anything. Stunts the rehab process, if anything.

3) I’ve been giving this response since April, but if you put him on the DL and send him to rehab, how is he best served by trying to relearn a swing at AAA or AA? He’s not a prospect, he has a track record, so he needs to be tested at the MLB level, not beat up AAA guys and then hope the swing changes that worked in AAA will work against significantly better competition.

Also, for all the outfielders and outfield prospects the Dodgers have, none of the really play center.

Remain Patient

As with most things, this is the option that absolutely sucks as a fan, but is the most prudent and responsible way to approach things.

The reason I’m not completely worried is because the lack of production right now is less about strength (he bombed that homer at Miller Park), and more about his current inability to make solid contact to begin with. Given his history of adjustments, I see no reason he can’t eventually make this one, as even just keeping his front side closed would be a instant improvement.

—–

Kemp’s swing does currently does have significant flaws, but I highly doubt it’s anything permanent. This rings especially true since he made a similar adjustment a couple years ago, and I expect him and the Dodgers to eventually work through this as well.

In all the disappointment about his 2013, people seem to forget that his ceiling is that of a league MVP, so he’s going to get more rope than most because he deserves it. The Dodgers are going to need him to hit at some point in 2013 if they hope to make the playoffs and make a run, and letting him actively work things out in the MLB is the fastest way to get Matt Kemp back to being Matt Kemp.

So you’ve heard a lot about Don Mattingly and his job security recently — hell, I just wrote about it — but this article from Tim Brown of Yahoo! Sports spread around yesterday, and it touched on all the common refrains you’ve been hearing, including harping on the team’s hitting with RISP.

They wonder why the players don’t spend more time with hitting coach Mark McGwire, why they don’t play as hard as their opponents, why they continue to lose games in the little gray areas where good teams thrive. That is, why they don’t catch the ball as well as others, why they don’t toughen and produce with runners in scoring position, why they don’t finish hitters from the mound. These are supposed to be good players, right?

Is it Mattingly? Has this group of players gone soft under Mattingly, whose leadership method allows men to be men, and perhaps thins when the men refuse to live to that minimum standard?

So basically a compilation of complaints that I assume were gathered from fan rants on MLB.com and ESPN.com comments. Swell.

But besides the fact that basically every single Dodgers blogger has written a more complete and well-reasoned piece on Mattingly and his status, the consistent thing that always comes up from the mainstream media is the Dodgers’ ability (or inability) to hit with RISP.

Yes, the bullpen has been a mess lately. Yes, this here’s a team sport, and the Dodgers don’t look like a team that’s all that desperate to win. Still, Kemp and Ethier were a combined 15 for 81 with runners in scoring position going into the Milwaukee series, and just one of those 15 hits was for extra bases.

Standard stuff.

But the amusing thing about that type of narrative? Matt Kemp has actually been clutch on the season, and the Dodgers have been one of the most clutch teams in baseball over the past month.

Don’t believe me? I don’t blame you.

You’ve heard a lot about the Dodgers struggles with RISP because it’s everywhere: stories before the game, tweets during the game, stories after the game. And while the facts of the matter aren’t wrong in this case, the problem is that the statistic itself doesn’t account for their skill/performance outside of that specific situation.

In other words, put a regular fan at the plate with RISP and they will OPS .000, but it doesn’t mean they’re unclutch, it just means that they suck. That’s where the stat ‘Clutch’ comes into play, as it accounts for overall performance versus performance in clutch situations.

On the season, the Dodgers have done as poorly as you probably expected, checking in at 23rd in the MLB this year in Clutch, behind the Astros.

*Click To Enlarge*

So that appears to fit the narrative.

However, in the past 30 days, they’re fifth in the MLB in being so so so clutchy clutchy clutch.

*Click To Enlarge*

So if you wanted to fill in a narrative for this reality, you could. For example, “The Dodgers have been feeling the pressure mounting due to their terrible start to the year, but they are heroically responding under duress to fight for the manager they love dearly”, or some utter garbage like that.

As you probably figured out by now, though, creating an equally dumb counter-narrative isn’t my goal. Besides, the Dodgers still aren’t scoring more runs despite recently coming through when it matters, which is primarily due to that ‘WPA’ column barely being positive. Simply put, the Dodgers still aren’t able to put bodies across the plate because they still generally suck at hitting. The team didn’t suddenly become more clutch in the last 30 days, nor were they less clutch to start the season. Clutch is a statistic that fluctuates constantly because it’s not necessarily indicative of a skill, and the exact same caveat applies for hitting with RISP, as the team has a .296 BABIP overall, but a .263 BABIP with RISP.

Look, there’s always an ebb and flow to these situational numbers, so at the end of the day, the only thing you actually can rely on is the overall talent of hitters. The Dodgers struggles in the clutch or with RISP or whatever else are a result of a team that is simply struggling to hit in 2013, and it’s certainly not indicative of a squad that needs leadership or fire or whatever other garbage people are printing nowadays.

The painful reality is that there’s no Clutch or RISP coaching to be done, really. The players simply need to perform in the batter’s box, clutch situations or otherwise. Unfortunately, like most things, it’s easier said than done.

Hyun Jin Ryu was captured playing catch with a boy, only known to me as “Deuce”, in the stands during batting practice.

After Matt Kemp made headlines everywhere for being a great guy, something he’s done before, Ryu once again brings positive headlines to the Dodgers for off-the-field reasons.

In what has been a horrible 2013 thus far for the team, at least there’s been bright spots off-the-field to relieve the constant bombardment of negativity.

In six short days with the team in 2013, Dee Gordon has already showcased everything that once made him a top prospect and everything that made him one of the worst players in the MLB last year.

It’s a tiny sample, yet he’s managed to fit in so much amazement and failure that his performance has been noteworthy, regardless. In a way, he’s proven both his supporters and detractors correct so far.

Me? I’m neutral on his call-up, because while I think there’s certainly more upside to him than Justin Sellers or Luis Cruz or Juan Uribe, there’s also downside.

Generally speaking, Sellers and Cruz might be around 0 WAR players. Maybe they’re 0.5 WAR guys, maybe they’re -0.5 WAR guys, but at the end of the day, they should fall in around there. Fringe utility players, basically.

Gordon, on the other hand, has always had an upside around a 3 WAR player, but his downside, as seen last year, is that of around a -3 WAR player. Unlike Cruz and Sellers and Uribe, his defense can be atrocious. Thus, if he hits like they do — and he certainly did last year — it’s two negatives instead of just one.

—–

Hitting

He’s hit .316/.409/.421/.830 thus far, yes, but it comes with a .429 BABIP, which is high even for somebody of his speed. The promising part though is his new patience, but the trade-off appears to be more strikeouts, which happen far too often for the slap-and-run type of hitter he is.

Undoubtedly, this aspect of his game has been his strength so far, but whether it continues over a significant sample or not has always been the issue.

Fielding

He’s shown range and the ability to get to balls that not many can (GIF #1), but he’s also shown the tendency to make careless errors and have a lack of fundamental skills (GIF #2/#3/#4).

On only one of the three misplays featured here was he marked with an error, but it’s still poor defense … and it’s only half of the misplays I found.

Baserunning

Electric, right? Look at how he takes all those extra bases and does the little things right and … oh he just ran into three outs in a game? Drat.

—–

Flaws and all, fans understandably tend to side with Dee because of the “wow” moments he brings to the table, stuff that guys with less raw talent simply can’t even fathom doing. Dee is made for mind-blowing bursts of speed and flair that lead to extreme excitement, but he often follows that with lulls of fundamental inadequacy and lack of baseball skills, which is the part people tend to gloss over too easily.

My point? For all the highs and lows so far, his WAR on the year is 0. There’s probably not much more fitting a grade than that.

People fall in love with the explosiveness but tend forget that baseball, for better or worse, is more about the routine and the boring.

For example, Matt Kemp‘s debut was full of flash and flair as well. He bombed seven homers in his first 50 plate appearances, but then got exposed down the stretch due to his lack of refinement. From there, it was the boring things — laying off/hitting hanging breaking balls, working the count, going to right field — that led him to become an MVP-caliber player, not mindlessly hacking and trying to club bombs.

Dee will never get to that level, granted, but at some point I would like to see a hint of progress in the refinement area of his game. Kemp showed that slowly but surely, much like all prospects that pan out do, but the concern is that Dee has been rather stagnant for a while now.

——

Perhaps predictably, articles are being written about how Dee gives this team a “shot in the arm” or a “much needed boost of energy”, but the reality is that’s not the player the Dodgers need him to be. He’s ALWAYS been the “energy guy”, the “tools guy”, the “flash guy”, even last year. What the Dodgers need from him more than anything right now is something he’s never been able to accomplish: stability.

The day he gives the team daily consistency over flashy highlights is the day that I’ll buy in, and I think most others will as well. Until then, though, the Dee Gordon experience will likely continue to be a roller-coaster of alternating cheers and facepalms.

Strap in.

Zack Greinke is ahead of schedule as he works his way back from his broken left collarbone.

For the third time in six days, Dodgers pitcher Zack Greinke threw a bullpen session on Tuesday afternoon before the Dodgers hosted the Diamondbacks at Dodger Stadium. The right-hander is ahead of schedule in his recovery from a broken collarbone.

Greinke threw just over 60 pitches on Tuesday, and like Saturday in San Francisco was clocked at 90 mph. Unlike last Thursday’s light bullpen session at Dodger Stadium, the last two have been much more strenuous, with Greinke throwing all of his pitches.

“My normal bullpen session is 20 pitches at 75 percent,” Greinke said. “This was nothing like a normal bullpen session for me.”

Now, Greinke could begin a minor league rehab assignment as soon as this weekend, provided he has no setbacks. That could put Greinke in line to return to the Dodgers at some time around the last week of May.

He’s been throwing bullpen sessions and will start a rehab assignment soon, and the Dodgers could really use that lethal one-two punch atop the rotation as soon as possible.

How soon?

Try tomorrow, in Rancho.

Zack Greinke to pitch in Class A tomorrow. Would be in line to return to #Dodgers rotation Wednesday vs. Nationals. May 10, 2013

If Greinke does indeed return on Wednesday of next week, he would have missed just under five weeks, well ahead of the original timetable given of eight weeks.

—–

Adrian Gonzalez has a strained muscle in his neck, suffered in that odd and innocuous-looking collision with a first-base umpire a few days back.

First baseman Adrian Gonzalez had an MRI on Monday that revealed a mild strain in his left trapezious muscle at the base of his neck, but he will play through the pain.

“I’m going to try to play through it and see how it feels,” Gonzalez said Monday afternoon. “It’s not getting worse, but there’s still quite a bit of pain there.”

The injury has forced him out of games early and seen him scratched entirely in others, but Gonzalez intends to play through the pain, which sounds pretty typical for an injured Dodger.

Dodgers first baseman Adrian Gonzalez left Wednesday night’s game against the Diamondbacks in the fifth inning, one inning after making a diving attempt to catch a foul ball. Gonzalez has been battling a strained muscle in his neck, and the Dodgers say he aggravated the neck strain on Wednesday.

Gonzalez is listed as day-to-day.

Honestly, just rest the guy and DL him – which they should have done originally – as there is baseball beyond 2013. Letting guys play through injury just leads to a more serious injury or compensating for the injured area and then injuring a different area.

Speaking of the consequences of playing through pain…

…A-Gon’s shoulder injury from a couple of years ago has permanently altered his ability to hit for power.

His days as that kind of power hitter are gone.

That is not a whisper from an anonymous scout. That is the word from Gonzalez himself, who says he has been unable to recover the swing that made him an elite power hitter.

“I can still hit home runs,” Gonzalez said. “That is not going to be an issue. The full power is not the same.”

“Last year, I tried to go back to the swing I had before I got hurt,” he said. “I tried it for the whole first half, with horrible results.”

We all remember them letting Matt Kemp persist, right? Now he might not ever be the same?

Great.

—–

Carl Crawford‘s hamstring was feeling tight, and he was held out of the lineup Wednesday as a precaution.

Dodgers left fielder Carl Crawford was held out of the starting lineup for the series finale against the Diamondbacks on Wednesday night with tightness in his right hamstring. Utility man Elian Herrera gets the start in left field in Crawford’s place.

“Carl felt a little bit tender, it feels like something is going on. We’re just being cautious, with the off day tomorrow,” said manager Don Mattingly. “I had planned on playing him today, but when he comes in and feels like he’s a little bit tight, it’s better than playing him and he ends up pulling it and you miss him for a long time.”

A hamstring injury for a guy whose game is predicated on his legs is never a good thing.

—–

Hanley Ramirez will be on the shelf for roughly four to six weeks with his hamstring injury.

MRI results for Hanley Ramirez confirmed a strain of his left hamstring strain, and the Dodgers are placing the official timetable for his return at four to six weeks. That puts Ramirez back with the Dodgers some time in the first two weeks of June if all goes according to plan.

Just think if he and Greinke and Gonzalez and Kemp are all on the field together at the same time, healthy. This squad could possibly win a game or two.

—–

Mark Ellis hit the 15-day DL with his quad injury and is eligible to return on May 12, as the move was a retroactive one.

It took the Dodgers about a week longer than it should have, but as expected Mark Ellis was placed on the 15-day disabled list on Monday with a strained right quad.

Chris Capuano was activated from the disabled list and took his spot on the 25-man roster.

—–

Jerry Hairston Jr. hit the DL with a strain of his left groin. Elian Herrera was recalled to take his place.

The Dodgers made it official on Tuesday, placing Jerry Hairston on the 15-day disabled list with a strained left groin.

Based on various beat reports from Monday, Hairston tried to test his groin during pregame workouts but was unable to complete them. Hairston aggravated the injury on Saturday night in San Francisco, but appeared as a pinch hitter on Sunday.

Hairston was pretty much the only guy with any amount of power on the bench.

—–

Scott Elbert is set to begin a rehab assignment and could be available in the next week to week and a half.

Reliever Scott Elbert, healed from two left elbow operations, will begin a Minor League rehab assignment Friday for Class A Rancho Cucamonga and could be back in the Dodgers’ bullpen within seven to 10 days.

Elbert threw a simulated game Saturday in extended spring training in Arizona, employing a revamped delivery designed to ease stress on his elbow after undergoing two offseason operations and a platelet-rich plasma injection during Spring Training.

Well, this is a bright spot at least.

=====

Greg Zakwin is the founder of the site Plaschke Thy Sweater Is Argyle. Follow him on Twitter @ArgyledPlaschke.

C.J. Nitkowski, for reasons unknown, decided to inject himself into the Zack Greinke/Carlos Quentin/Dodgers/Padres brawl discussion, basically saying that Quentin doesn’t hang over the plate any more than Matt Kemp does.

Carlos Quentin stands on top of the plate, hangs over the strike zone? You sure about that? twitter.com/CJNitkowski/st…

— CJ Nitkowski (@CJNitkowski) April 12, 2013

Kemp, same camera, same angle. twitter.com/CJNitkowski/st…

— CJ Nitkowski (@CJNitkowski) April 12, 2013

Damning screencaps, right? Yeah, a lot of people seemed to think so, hence this response, because they both conveniently only show their setups and don’t show why pitchers complain about Quentin diving over the plate and why he gets hit so much.

I find it interesting that he clearly appears to be misleading his followers here, because it’s obvious that the point of contention is how they end up after footstrike, not how they setup. I mean, who cares how a guy sets up if he’s on top of the plate when the ball is about to cross it.

Anyway, so what’s up with the differing reputations of Quentin and Kemp if we’re to believe what the screencaps show, right?

Ah right, it’s because Kemp actually tends to pull out and away from the plate after his setup, while Quentin … well … he dives in after his setup, sort of like everybody has been saying.

That’s both of them at footstrike, where it actually matters in terms of getting out of the way of being hit.

It sort of sucks that both are wearing dark undershirts, because it’s hard to tell exactly where their elbows are (Quentin’s is basically over the inside corner), but it’s still clear to see why Quentin would get hit more than Kemp.

Besides the fact that it’s harder to rotate out of the way when you dive towards the plate, thus making it harder to avoid being HBP (it’s why he can’t simply move like NotGraphs wants), Kemp has a ton more room for a pitcher to miss inside before even coming close to hitting him. With Quentin, if you miss anywhere in and above the belt, he’s at risk to take it off his forearm. You know, sort of like he did twice in this series. And 100+ other times over his career.

To be frank, I feel stupid for even having to write this post, since a player doesn’t have one of the highest HBP rates ever for no reason, but people seem to actually be buying into this garbage, and Jayson Stark actually retweeted it as “interesting”, so it deserved an explanation.

So in case you were under a rock yesterday, Zack Greinke has a broken collarbone and is out for a while, essentially because Carlos Quentin is an idiot.

As one would imagine, the reactions to what went down from the Dodgers dugout, media, and bloggers weren’t the most pleasant towards Quentin.

=====

Don Mattingly called him an idiot and said he should be suspended for however long Greinke is out.

“I don’t understand it either. We’re in a 2-1 game, and on a 3-2 pitch to guy I saw on the board set a record for the Padres by getting hit, a guy that basically dives into the plate. In a 2-1 game we’re trying to hit him 3-2? It’s just stupid, is what it is,” said manager Don Mattingly. “He should not play a game until Greinke can throw a pitch. If he plays before Greinke pitches, something is wrong.”

“He caused the whole thing,” Mattingly said of Quentin. “Nothing happens if you go to first base like in baseball you know you do, because you know he’s not throwing at you 3-2, in a 2-1 game. That’s zero understanding of the game of baseball.”

I don’t disagree.

—–

Matt Kemp went the extra mile to try and find out why Quentin charged the mound.

Kemp and Quentin were nose-to-nose before Richard stepped in. Kemp kept asking Quentin why he did it.

Matt Kemp confronted Carlos Quentin as the 2 were leaving Petco Park. Clayton Richard, cops, security broke it up.

Pretty stupid when you think about it. Last thing the team needs is for him to get hurt and/or suspended for dealing with that asshole.

While on the field though, Kemp lost it after he heard about Greinke being hurt.

Mattingly on Matt Kemp, one of three ejected: “once he knew Zack was hurt, he lost it

That reaction is more understandable to me.

—–

A.J. Ellis said that even a Padres player thought it was bullshit.

A.J. Ellis said #Padres players apologized for Quentin’s actions. “It’s not right, it’s not right,” he said one player told him.

Amusing that people are defending Quentin when people on his own team don’t even agree … off the record, of course.

—–

Speaking of the Padres, in a move of sheer class, Jerry Hairston Jr. relays that the reason he ran over to the Padres dugout, after things had seemingly settled a bit, was to confront a player making fun of the injured Greinke.

“It’s terrible. It’s unacceptable, and I lost it. If a guy’s going to hit you, he’s going to hit you on the very first pitch. This is The Show, you don’t do that stuff. My teammate now has a broken f—ing collarbone, because he hit you on a 3-2 pitch?” Hairston said. “I don’t know Carlos at all, I really don’t, but he was wrong.”

Hairston was ejected for going after one of the Padres after the initial melee had died down.

“I was playing peacemaker, just trying to break it up. Obviously Zack was hurt. One of the guys was chirping the whole time, making fun of him for having the hurt shoulder, broken collarbone, or whatever,” Hairston said.

Losing Zack stings, but we ll pick each other up. Zacks like my little brother. Saw someone making fun of him being injured. Not cool!!

Hairston said it wasn’t Yonder Alonso, and I’ve heard it was John Baker, which would make perfect sense since he’s a backup catcher nobody that will never have to answer for running his mouth. Who knows what the truth is, but it would explain why Hairston lost it.

=====

As far Quentin goes, his excuses after the game were about as irrational as you’d expect.

Quentin blames Greinke for history of HBP. Quentin said he has led league in HBP 2 years running and has never charged mound in MLB.

Translation: “I always lead the league in being hit, but never charge the mound. I did this time though! Why? His fault! But I won’t tell you why.”

Quentin, asked if any remorse: “I did what I did. It could have been avoided.”

Yeah, by you not charging the mound.

Look, I mentioned this in the other post, but Quentin gets hit a lot because of how he dives into the plate, so him getting hit multiple times by pitchers he faced a ton shouldn’t be surprising. In fact, if getting hit by Greinke often was his rationale for being upset, then Jon Weisman found a list of players Quentin should have been raging at before tonight:

The short list of pitchers who clearly have it in for Carlos Quentin: twitter.com/jonweisman/sta…

— Jon Weisman (@jonweisman) April 12, 2013

It’s a long list for a reason, put it that way.

So, hear my plea Carlos Quentin: FUCKING MOVE!

Move out of the way. Just don’t be in that place when the pitch comes at you. I know some plunkings are unavoidable. But surely you can cut down on a lot of them. Duck, or spin away, or bend backward or something. Just fucking move. Take your walk the traditional way.

A post written in jest, but prophetic nevertheless.

—–

For his part, Greinke said he didn’t hit Quentin on purpose but knows Quentin thinks he did.

“The only thing I’ll say about that is that I’ve never hit him on purpose,” Greinke said. “He always seems to think I hit him on purpose, but that’s not the case.”

It was the third time in 31 career plate appearances that Greinke hit Quentin. But he is hardly alone in that regard, as Quentin leads the majors with 97 HBP since the beginning of 2008.

“I thought it was a ploy to get people to not throw inside to him, so he can lean out away,” Greinke said. “I don’t know anyone who has hit him on purpose.”

Quentin maintained Greinke hit him intentionally.

“Myself and Greinke have a history, it dates back to a few years ago. You guys could look it up. It’s documented. It’s unfortunate about the situation. It could have been avoided. You can ask Zack about that,” Quentin said. “I can tell you I’ve never responded in that fashion before.”

Speaking of Quentin complaining about getting hit while diving over the plate, Giants pitcher Ryan Vogelsong gave a quote last year when Quentin got mad at him for throwing inside that basically sums Quentin’s attitude up.

A reminder after taking in the brawl last night between the Dodgers and Padres after Zack Greinke hit Carlos Quentin, who then charged the pitcher and broke his collarbone: Last Aug. 19 in San Diego, Ryan Vogelsong had a beef with Quentin after hitting him with a pitch, and Clayton Richard retaliating by hitting Brandon Belt.

Vogelsong fumed after the game that Quentin crowds the plate and should not react the way he does.

“Go look at the video,” Vogelsong fumed. “It was a two-seamer that ran of the plate. That guy hammers balls over the plate and he gets pissed when you throw the ball inside. It doesn’t make sense. Every time you hit a guy in this game now they think you did it on purpose. It’s tired.”

Sounds familiar.

—–

As far as the accusation that Greinke was trying to instigate a fight:

Zack Greinke was asked if he wanted to fight Carlos Quentin. “I can’t remember the last time I wanted to get in a fight with someone.”

I think most would agree that he seems like the last person who would want to start anything physical.

=====

As for the opposing side, Padres fans are handling this extremely classy … hahahaha no.

This doesn’t even scratch the surface of it, but just to give you a taste:

*Click To Enlarge*

*Click To Enlarge*

*Click To Enlarge*

My take: you never want to see a player charging the mound, but it’s not like it’s never happened before. (1/2)

— Nathan Veale (@The_NV) April 12, 2013

Greinke intentionally moved his body into harm’s way and charged at Quentin. He didn’t have to. That’s his own fault. (2/2)

— Nathan Veale (@The_NV) April 12, 2013

Quentin may have started it, but Greinke’s response was “challenge accepted.” You get what you ask for in this world.

— Nathan Veale (@The_NV) April 12, 2013

Remember guys, Quentin started it, we can all agree on that, but once Quentin started walking toward Greinke and then charged, Greinke didn’t run away, therefore, any injury suffered is HIS fault.

I’d hate for that guy to be in charge of the law. If you got assaulted on the street, his advice would be to not fight back or else you deserve everything that happens to you.

Logic.

=====

Anyway, reading through my Twitter timeline, seems like the consensus among even non-Dodger fans is “fuck Quentin”, so in conclusion:

Going into the bottom of the sixth inning, the Dodgers held a 2-1 lead over the Padres, and Zack Greinke was rolling along. Unfortunately, to lead off the inning, he hit Carlos Quentin with a 3-2 pitch.

Crappy situation to put the lead-off man on, obviously, but no big deal apart from that, except:

So Quentin is a goddamn idiot.

Nobody is dumb enough to think Greinke did that intentionally when he’s clinging onto a lead and rolling along, except Quentin, because apparently he’s still hanging on to something that happened FOUR YEARS AGO between the White Sox and Royals.

An instance between Carlos Quentin and Greinke with one out in the fourth stood out as the game’s only real fireworks, and even this uprising didn’t amount to much. Quentin was hit squarely in the back by a Greinke pitch and immediately took a couple of steps toward the mound.

Home-plate umpire Bill Hohn stepped in front of Quentin and catcher Miguel Olivo quickly restrained the slugger. Television broadcasts showed Quentin telling Olivo that he was all right, and Quentin moved down to first base.

By Greinke’s estimation, it was a first-inning pitch that got away and almost hit Quentin in the head causing the residual anger three innings later.

“He had a reason for [being upset],” said Greinke of Quentin. “Any time you throw it that high, it’s justified. You’ve got to be better than that and not pitch like that. You’re going to make mistakes, but the last thing you want to do is hit someone where it could seriously hurt them. As soon as I let go of it, I was scared for him.”

“Well, everybody that gets hit gets upset, especially when you aren’t swinging the bat well and all of a sudden you get hit,” Guillen said. “That’s part of the game. Carlos is a guy who is going to get hit a lot because he stands on top of the plate. I don’t think it was intentional.”

So at the time, Greinke was understanding about Quentin’s feelings, but even Quentin’s own manager, Ozzie Guillen, said he thought it wasn’t intentional.

Then there’s this fact:

One thing to consider: If Greinke had it out for Quentin, why wait? After HBP on April 8, 2009, they faced each other 15 times from ’09-’10.

— Jeff Passan (@JeffPassan) April 13, 2013

So there’s that.

If this was a vendetta on Greinke’s part, the argument is that he’s been holding this in for four years to get back at Quentin for … what reason now?

Ugh.

—–

And about Quentin crowding the plate? Yeah, he does it, and he gets hit A LOT by everybody.

There is one White Sox player who threatens to be the best ever at what he does: Carlos Quentin. That’s right, in more than 2,200 plate appearances, Quentin is already threatening the top of a certain leaderboard.

Yes. Carlos Quentin just might be the best hit-by-pitcher of all time. Since 2000, no one has managed to be hit in as many as four games in a row. Quentin was once hit in six games in a row, and is second on that same list with three straight earlier this month.

Quentin gets hit a lot, and by everybody, so for him to make this his stand is ridiculous.

He doesn’t even have good reason to have issue with Greinke specifically:

Tweet from Oney Guillen: “greinke has hit carlos many many times … told me long long time ago. if he does it again im going for him.”

— Jon Morosi (@jonmorosi) April 12, 2013

@jay_jaffe Exactly. Blackburn, Lester and Bedard had done so even more often, 14 others in addition to Greinke had hit him twice.

— Jon Morosi (@jonmorosi) April 12, 2013

So despite Oney Guillen contradicting his own dad, being an idiot, and generally exaggerating, he confirms that Quentin has a vendetta against Greinke, not vice versa, despite the fact that he’s been hit twice or more by an awful lot of pitchers.

Look, if you’re going to crowd the plate in an attempt to take a side of it away from the pitcher and for better coverage, accept the consequences. You didn’t see Craig Biggio whining about it and throwing temper tantrums. It’s part of the deal.

The worst part though is that Greinke left the field with trainer Sue Falsone, meaning Quentin’s dumbass, illogical temper tantrum may have caused an injury.

Furthermore, the Dodgers basically have no recourse here, because the Padres suck:

Worst part is there’s no way to retaliate against this what do you do hit Will Venable?

— Andrew Grant (@realandrewgrant) April 12, 2013

As you know, I’m not one for throwing at guys as retaliation, but how are the Dodgers supposed to get justice for an opposing player basically trying to physically assault one of their own players? Trust MLB to do the right thing and suspend him for as many games as Greinke is out? Please, the team will never get the justice they want from them.

So now we all have to wait and hope that nothing is seriously wrong with Greinke, and all of this is because Quentin acted like a little child. And because he’s a fucking idiot.

—–

Update

BREAKING: Zack Greinke suffered a fractured left collarbone.

— Los Angeles Dodgers (@Dodgers) April 12, 2013

Welp, there’s that.

Suspend him for three months.

—–

Matt Kemp thinks the whole situation is bullshit.

I like Yasiel Puig. I like him a lot, actually. I even ranked him as the top prospect in the Dodgers system for 2013.

However, if you follow me on Twitter, most of what I tweet about him is sort of dismissive. That’s not because I’m not excited about him, but rather because he seems to make people incredibly stupid.

For example, look at the tweets just from the last couple of days replying to Dylan Hernandez when he mentions Puig, and you can find shit like this:

@dylanohernandez bench Kemp and put Puig in

— Ryan Perez(@WreckItRyan) April 7, 2013

@dylanohernandez if only we had an outfield spot or two occupied by sorry ass players (Etheir/Kemp) where Puig could be plugged in to.

— Herbie Verstinks (@HerbieVerstinks) April 7, 2013

Bench Matt Kemp and Andre Ethier after six games in 2013! Sounds like a rational plan!

@dylanohernandez Can he play an infield position?

— Julio Ojeda (@Julio_SportsFan) April 7, 2013

@dylanohernandez try 3B for Puig.

— Monstarr (@rancimo) April 7, 2013

“Can he play positions in the major leagues that he’s never played before and never trained for?!”

I mean … what?

Hanley Ramirez is athletic and talented and has played shortstop in the MLB and MILB forever … and he’s still widely known by most everybody as a horrid defender. Fans can’t stand to watch his slow turns at second base or Dee Gordon throwing the ball away, but Puig? Well shit, he could do it, right? WHY NOT?! How hard could shortstop or third base be?

Ugh.

I would legitimately sooner try Adrian Gonzalez at third. It’s far less dumb.

—–

But those are just four examples and it doesn’t mean anything, right? Yeah, I wish. Feel free to Twitter search for him or just read the replies to mainstream writers whenever his name is brought up. You’ll be amazed by how insane some of the stuff is.

Look, all prospects have promise, and, more than most, I get the excitement. But the Dodgers have had guys who jumped levels and showed flashes of an elite future before, most recently Rubby De La Rosa, but they have never generated anywhere near this type of excitement/delusion.

So while Puig will likely produce in the majors, and he has star upside, what is it exactly about him that makes people lose their goddamn minds? Seriously though, as a meme, it’s entertaining, but people are getting serious about it and I have to implore you to please stop before anything short of a stellar MLB debut/Hall Of Fame career leads to people incessantly booing him … as if he was Kemp after an 0-4 outing in 2013 even after back-to-back .900+ OPS seasons.

While Don Mattingly believes Matt Kemp‘s shoulder may be a mental hurdle he’ll have to get past, he and the Dodgers staff are not concerned about it affecting Kemp physically, as the injury hasn’t cropped back up after off-season surgery and there have been no lingering side effects.

“He may be thinking about [the shoulder], but it doesn’t seem like it any more,” manager Don Mattingly said before Tuesday’s game against the Giants. “I think when we assessed Spring Training, we felt like that was one of the hurdles that we crossed that was successful.”

The injury will likely temper Kemp’s power early in the season, but hopefully his shoulder responds better than Adrian Gonzalez‘s did after a similar injury during his time in Boston.

It’s a situation worth monitoring, but it certainly doesn’t seem worthy of panic.

—–

Chad Billingsley had a successful rehab start in Rancho and is in line to start in the bigs on Wednesday.

Chad Billingsley allowed four runs in four innings in his minor league rehab assignment with Class-A Rancho Cucamonga on Thursday night, but more importantly the Dodgers right-hander is healthy and his curve ball was unhindered by the contusion on his right index finger. Billingsley’s next start will likely by Wednesday in San Diego against the Padres.

“My curve was a lot sharper. In the last outing I was throwing 50-foot curve balls. Tonight they were more on top of the plate, I got a double play ball out of one. It was definitely worth it coming back here,” Billingsley said. “I’m ready for the next outing.”

Bills’ finger was fine and he was able to throw his curve.

“It went well. I accomplished everything I needed to to get ready for my next start,” Billingsley said on Friday at Dodger Stadium. “I’ve got no issues with the finger. I’m anxious to get back out there, compete and win some ballgames.”

It’s something to watch for during his start this week, for sure.

—–

Ted Lilly went six innings in a minor-league rehab start.

Lilly is expected to make at least one more rehab start before he’s ready to start in the Major Leagues, and then the Dodgers must find room for him. Manager Don Mattingly earlier said Lilly is not a likely candidate for the bullpen, where the Dodgers already have stashed starting pitchers Chris Capuano and Aaron Harang.

Not shockingly, Lilly allowed a few dingers.

The odds are still good that Lilly will be dealt or released when he’s healthy enough to return, as the Dodgers already have three superior lefties in the pen and could get Scott Elbert back at some point around the middle of this season.

—–

The Dodgers placed minor leaguers Juan Abreu, Juan Noriega, Matt Palmer, Mario Santiago, Steve Cilladi, Jan Vazquez, Pedro Guerrero, Casio Grider, Ozzie Martinez, Brian Cavazos-Galvez, Jeremy Moore, Pat Stover, and Joey Winker on the 7-day DL.

=====

Greg Zakwin is the founder of the site Plaschke Thy Sweater Is Argyle. Follow him on Twitter @ArgyledPlaschke.

After starting the season zero for eleventy billion, Matt Kemp finally sheds the title of the worst baseball player ever with a double.

Or whatever.

Never forget.

—–

Baseball Prospectus: Matt Kemp has struggled to start the year, but his poor Spring Training probably has little to do with it.

His career line in 561 plate appearances? .252/.291/.448/.739.

True Blue LA: The Opening Day payroll for the Dodgers is over $240 million.

Baseball America: Draft bonus pools for the 2013 MLB Draft will rise 8.2 percent from last year. The Dodgers have $5,211,700 to spend on their 10 picks within the bonus pool range.

True Blue LA: Here’s all the changes to Dodger Stadium that you’ve been hearing about.

—–

Albuquerque Isotopes: Albuquerque Isotopes Opening Day roster.

True Blue LA: Chattanooga Lookouts Opening Day roster.

True Blue LA: Rancho Cucamonga Quakes Opening Day roster.

Great Lakes Loons: Great Lakes Loons Opening Day roster.

—–

Baseball America: Tomohiro Anraku, potentially the next big thing in Japan, threw 772 pitches in nine days at Koshien.

I guess it’s sad that I’m not even shocked by this. The practice has been going on forever now and there have probably been countless arms ruined far before they even get to Koshien.

Yahoo! Sports: Story on Tomohiro Anraku, Koshien, and the Japanese mentality towards pitch counts.

Chad Billingsley turned in an impressive minor-league outing on Friday in which he was able to throw his curve sans any finger or elbow issues.

Manager Don Mattingly said Billingsley remains in his starting rotation, but it will just be a matter of when. The Dodgers don’t technically need a fifth starter until Apr. 13, their 11th game of the season. But Billingsley could be mixed into the rotation earlier, perhaps as early as Apr. 7.

“There are a couple of issues with Bills. Making sure he’s ready is one. The nail is one. But the biggest issue is any kind of small changes messing with that elbow,” Mattingly said. “That’s our biggest concern with him, making sure we’re not putting him in a bad spot.”

The nail was never a serious issue, but it’s encouraging to see the Dodgers not pushing him to tough it out and risk further injury.

He’s slated to start a minor-league game this Thursday and is tentatively scheduled to be back in the bigs on April 10.

—–

Scott Elbert received plasma rich platelet injections in his ailing left elbow as he attempts to return from an elbow injury.

“Scott hasn’t thrown in a while. He was having some tenderness so he was shut down for quite a bit. His timetable has definitely been changing,” said manager Don Mattingly. “It was a little bit like Carl (Crawford), just starting that program up but he wasn’t quite ready yet. So we’ll wait, PRP, and start back up.”

There’s no timetable set for his return, and considering that Elbert has had an unhealthy off-season, plus the fact that the Dodgers are already three lefty relievers deep in the pen, there’s no reason to rush him until he’s 100%.

—–

Andre Ethier left last Tuesday’s Spring Training game with soreness in his right hamstring.

“[Dodgers trainer Sue Falsone] warned me before the game and [Ethier] didn’t say it after the hit, but I didn’t want to see it after that. He’d had enough,” Mattingly said. “It’s been a long camp.”

He made the Opening Day roster and played in yesterday’s game, and he looked fine, but it’s notable anyway. Doesn’t seem like much, but hamstring injuries can be tricky (See: Matt Kemp, 2012).

—–

Ted Lilly was placed on the 15-day DL retroactive to March 28 as he continues his recovery from off-season labrum surgery on his pitching shoulder.

While I’m sure a part of that is true, the reality is that he was just atrocious looking in Spring Training.

=====

Greg Zakwin is the founder of the site Plaschke Thy Sweater Is Argyle. Follow him on Twitter @ArgyledPlaschke.

The Dodgers beat the rival Giants on Opening Day at home to begin 2013, but it wasn’t so much the win that was surprising as how they did it.

Leading off the bottom of the eighth inning of a 0-0 game, Clayton Kershaw was left in to hit, and he justified the decision, not with his arm, but with his bat.

That was his first career homer, and it made people lose their minds.

Never been prouder of Dodger fans as when they completed that successful high five.

So … that happened too.

Then Matt Kemp and the dugout did whatever this is:

Zombie dance?

And Luis Cruz is so excited. We so excited.

Fun fun fun.

Unfortunately, Kershaw is basically the worst curtain call giver in history.

We can work on that though.

What’s going on in that picture? Don’t ask.

Really though, Matt Kemp was on “Sesame Street” recently, and he showed off his acting chops.

What an amazing showing by Mattycakes, especially the part where he gives the camera a disgusted/angered death stare on a show meant for kids.

:o

At this rate, it’s between him and Daniel Day Lewis for the Oscar in 2014.

Javy Guerra has been optioned to AAA after a rough spring in which he dealt with injury and had been limited to just a couple of appearances. The Dodgers have a deep pen and, with Guerra’s injuries and struggles, he was going to have to excel during Spring Training to secure a spot on the Opening Day roster.

Tony Gwynn Jr. was also assigned to AAA Albuquerque. Gwynn was one of the few guys with the ability to backup Matt Kemp and previous big-league experience doing so, but the move reinforces just how little Tony can swing the lumber and the fact that the Dodgers clearly have faith that Carl Crawford will be healthy enough to serve as the number two center fielder.

Shawn Tolleson and Justin Sellers were optioned to AAA, while Jesus Flores was reassigned to minor-league camp. Additionally, Chris Withrow was optioned to minor-league camp along with Juan Abreu and Wilkin Castillo.

—–

The team released three players in Dallas McPherson, Ramon Castro, and Nick Evans.

—–

On the flip side of things, the team has signed Dashenko Ricardo of Curacao to a contract after Dashenko participated in the World Baseball Classic.

Along with Ricardo came the signings of Dominican prospects Dennis Santana and Carlos Aquino – both shortstops – and lefty Cesar Romero.

—–

Tim Federowicz has probably locked up the job of backing up A.J. Ellis with the removal of Jesus Flores from major-league camp.

=====

Greg Zakwin is the founder of the site Plaschke Thy Sweater Is Argyle. Follow him on Twitter @ArgyledPlaschke.

Matt Kemp represented the Dodgers in a commercial for MLB 13: The Show recently, and I … sorry, just got lost in his eyes.

—–

Use this every time Don Mattingly decides to bunt…

…and this every time Matt Kemp does something dreamy.

It’s a flawless plan.

Baseball fans love to talk about clutch plays and clutch players, and Dodgers fans are no exception, but like with a pitcher’s best and worst pitches, there tends to be a lack of evidence presented. As such, I decided to find some basis for clutch plays and clutch players, courtesy of the WPA and Clutch statistics.

WPA

Most sabermetric statistics are context neutral — they do not consider the situation of a particular event or how some plays are more crucial to a win than others. While wOBA rates all home runs as equal, we know intuitively that a home run in the third inning of a blowout is less important to that win than a home run in the bottom of the ninth inning of a close game. Win Probability Added (WPA) captures this difference by measuring how individual players affect their team’s win expectancy on a per-play basis.

Clutch

In the words of David Appelman, this calculation measures, “…how much better or worse a player does in high leverage situations than he would have done in a context neutral environment.” It also compares a player against himself, so a player who hits .300 in high leverage situations when he’s an overall .300 hitter is not considered clutch.

So that’s the foundation for this post, and since that’s now been established, let’s get on with it, shall we?

As always, visuals have been provided because, let’s be honest, everything is better with visuals.

—–

I feel like it’s necessary to point out that none of this is predictive of the future or telling of the past. It’s a post about stuff that happened in 2012. That’s all.

In other words, please don’t link back to this while saying, “LOOK! THIS DUDE IS SUCH A CHOKER, BRO!” No.

—–

Top Five David Carradine Choke Pitches Of 2012

1. Kenley Jansen – -65.2%

Still amuses me that the umpire called the first runner out initially.

Anyway, so technically this wasn’t a pitch, but … uh … it was one of the most ridiculous ways to allow two runs I have ever seen.

It was the ninth inning and there were runners on second and third with two down. The Dodgers were clinging to a one-run lead, so it’s not like they weren’t in trouble since a hit would have had a similar result, but this was certainly more creative.

2. Javy Guerra – -64.8%

Two-run walk-off doubles tend to result in being on this list.

3. Kenley Jansen – -45.2%

Giving up a two-run single with a one-run lead in the top of eighth is not good, but it would have been worse had Matt Kemp not gunned a runner down at third.

Oh, and it was Hunter Pence who did the damage, thus making it ten times worse.

4. Javy Guerra – -44.5%

Deja vu.

5. Javy Guerra – -43.7%

Remember when people scoffed at the notion that Kenley Jansen was the better reliever? Oops.

To be fair, this was the game where he got his face destroyed, which seems like a legit excuse for giving up a game-tying one-run single.

—–

Kenley Jansen might be an idiot, but boy did the closer role not suit Javy Guerra.

—–

Top Five Chokeiest Dodgers Of 2012 – Ball Thrower Division

1. Javy Guerra – -1.44
2. Joe Blanton – -0.43
3. Chad Billingsley – -0.36
4. Clayton Kershaw – -0.25
5. Kenley Jansen – -0.23

Baseball fans love to talk about clutch plays and clutch players, and Dodgers fans are no exception, but like with a pitcher’s best and worst pitches, there tends to be a lack of evidence presented. As such, I decided to find some basis for clutch plays and clutch players, courtesy of the WPA and Clutch statistics.

WPA

Most sabermetric statistics are context neutral — they do not consider the situation of a particular event or how some plays are more crucial to a win than others. While wOBA rates all home runs as equal, we know intuitively that a home run in the third inning of a blowout is less important to that win than a home run in the bottom of the ninth inning of a close game. Win Probability Added (WPA) captures this difference by measuring how individual players affect their team’s win expectancy on a per-play basis.

Clutch

In the words of David Appelman, this calculation measures, “…how much better or worse a player does in high leverage situations than he would have done in a context neutral environment.” It also compares a player against himself, so a player who hits .300 in high leverage situations when he’s an overall .300 hitter is not considered clutch.

So that’s the foundation for this post, and since that’s now been established, let’s get on with it, shall we?

As always, visuals have been provided because, let’s be honest, everything is better with visuals.

—–

I feel like it’s necessary to point out that none of this is predictive of the future or telling of the past. It’s a post about stuff that happened in 2012. That’s all.

In other words, please don’t link back to this while saying, “LOOK! THIS DUDE IS SUCH A CHOKER, BRO!” No.

—–

Top Five David Carradine Choke Jobs Of 2012

1. Andre Ethier – -39.3%

Horrifying.

With the bases loaded and one down in the bottom of the eighth, and the Dodgers trailing the rival Giants 2-1, Andre Ethier comes up and … yeah.

…

2. Jerry Hairston Jr. – -34.1%

Nobody out in the bottom of the ninth and trailing by a run, Jerry Hairston Jr. decides it’s a sweet time to ground into a double play while there’s runners on first and second, thus killing a massive opportunity.

3. Adam Kennedy – -33.6%

Second and third and one out in the bottom of the ninth and trailing by one run, Adam Kennedy did what he did best in 2012: rolling over and chopping a ball to the right side.

Extra scorn for almost killing Matt Kemp.

4. Tony Gwynn Jr. – -29.1%

Just looking.

Down by a run in the bottom of the ninth with runners on second and third, Tony Gwynn Jr. needed to put the ball in play and give himself a chance. Instead, he did his best impersonation of a statue.

5. Mark Ellis – -25.7%

Bottom of the tenth and trailing by a run, the Dodgers put men on first and third with one out, but Mark Ellis … did that.

Bonus anger for doing it against Jonathan Papelbon.

—–

Commentary? So much fail.

—–

Top Five Chokeiest Dodgers Of 2012 – Field Player Division

1. A.J. Ellis – -1.62
2. Adam Kennedy – -1.14
3. Andre Ethier – -1.01
4. Jerry Hairston Jr. – -0.95
5. Shane Victorino – -0.37

Zack Greinke missed a bullpen session on Sunday due to forearm tightness.

Greinke had “a little forearm tightness and thought it best to give it a day to let it rest,” pitching coach Rick Honeycutt said. “It’s nothing to be alarmed about. He’s had it before and he’s still expected to make his next start [Wednesday].”

Fortunately, it’s not anything to be concerned with at this point, especially considering Greinke was still participating in baseball activities prior to the game.

Greinke didn’t miss the pre-game workout, shagging in the outfield but making very few overhand throws.

Team is just being extra cautious with their new signing.

—–

The last time we mentioned Carl Crawford he was dealing with elbow soreness and was held out of drills as a precaution.

The Dodgers soon thereafter updated us with further precautionary measures, namely seven days off from throwing and hitting due to nerve irritation in his surgically-repaired left elbow.

To be honest, I wasn’t expecting a whole lot from Crawford this year, and my overall expectations for him in Los Angeles are very much tempered, but the fact that his elbow seems to still be balky is particularly concerning, especially now that even the Dodgers are saying Opening Day is iffy.

—–

Andre Ethier missed some Camelback Ranch action due to a callus on his right hand.

Ethier suffered from the same ailment last August, and Don Mattingly wants to be pro-active this time around.

“It’s kind of a callus that turned into nastiness last year by not paying attention. I don’t want to do that again,” said manager Don Mattingly. “It’s starting to get big. They’re trying to let it dry out, and not let it turn into what it turned into last year.”

Mattingly said if this were a regular season game Ethier would play, but given the luxury of spring training and a full month before opening day, the team is playing it cautiously.

I like that the Dodgers and Mattingly are trying to get ahead of this so that it doesn’t become a more serious concern, but why would he play Dre in a regular-season game and risk further injury when the implication is that the callus could become quite bad and detrimental to him without rest?

That’s how they’ve gotten into messes before, no?

—–

Shawn Tolleson hurt his left knee yesterday, and the injury is being reported as “left knee soreness”.

“Obviously we don’t know anything for sure, but it sounded like Sue was ruling out the big stuff,” said manager Don Mattingly after the game. “He still felt something that scared him, I know that. But it would be premature for me to speculate on what it might be.”

The Dodgers staff will run more tests and hopefully it’s nothing serious as Tolleson has a great arm and could be a part of the pen this year with health and a bit more seasoning.

—–

Matt Kemp made his Spring Training game debut following his off-season shoulder surgery.

“I swung and fouled a changeup. Last year, that would have made my left shoulder hurt,” he said. “I didn’t hurt today. That’s a really good sign that my shoulder is well and responding to the rehab.”

It’s good to see Kemp back in action after a serious injury, as the team’s 2013 fate will hinge largely on how quickly Kemp can regain his MVP form.

—–

Nothing major here, but Ted Lilly has missed time due to sickness.

Lilly, 37, one of four starters likely battling for the final spot in the Dodger rotation, was to follow Clayton Kershaw to the mound Tuesday but he has been out of camp a couple of days with illness.

Manager Don Mattingly said Lilly’s wife, Natasha, and 2-year-old son Theodore Roosevelt (really) were treated last week for flu-like symptoms, after which Lilly became sick.

Sure, sure, blame the wife and kid.

=====

Greg Zakwin is the founder of the site Plaschke Thy Sweater Is Argyle. Follow him on Twitter @ArgyledPlaschke.

Carl Crawford took live batting practice against an actual pitcher for the first time since elbow surgery last August. However, yesterday he reported forearm soreness and was held out of batting practice and drills.

Crawford, rehabbing from Tommy John surgery on his left elbow last Aug. 23, took batting practice against live pitchers on Monday, but hasn’t been able to do so in the last two days. On Thursday morning when hitting off the tee in the batting cage, Crawford felt tightness in his forearm, and was shut down.

I wouldn’t overreact to it, but forearm stiffness is usually indicative of elbow ligament problems, which does seem normal since he’s rehabbing from Tommy John surgery, but it’s probably an indication that he’s moving a bit too quickly.

Update

Mattingly: @carlcrawford_ will not hit or throw for seven days due to nerve irritation in his elbow.

— Los Angeles Dodgers (@Dodgers) March 1, 2013

Indeed, the problem was elbow related and it seems it was a more serious setback than they initially let on.

—–

Chad Billingsley and his balky right elbow made it through his first start of Spring Training without any complications.

“After the first couple of throws I’m like, ‘Yeah this is fun’,” Billingsley said.

“Normally when you sit for a long half-inning, your arm gets tight and your body starts tightening up. But I went out there and had no problem getting loose or anything, so that’s great.”

“As soon as I left (Arizona) in October, I felt I was ready to go,” he said.

The news is, of course, positive, but whether they want to admit it or not, his condition will be speculated on all year long unless he never falters in terms of both performance and health.

—–

Matt Kemp continues rehabbing and could see live game action sooner than later.

No official date has been set for Kemp’s Spring Training debut, but he’s taking batting practice without issue.

Kemp, who underwent right shoulder surgery in October, hit in the cages Wednesday morning and felt good enough to take on-field batting practice — off of Mattingly — later in the workout. Mattingly said Kemp was fine and his extension, even on full swings and misses, caused no pain.

Seems like he’ll be ready to go once the season starts.

—–

Tony Gwynn Jr. was sidelined with a sore left groin muscle and had to miss a few days of workouts. He later said he expects to be back today, which is a positive since he’s battling desperately for a roster spot.

Gwynn is the only potential bench player with significant center field experience in the majors, so this setback can only hurt him and his chances, especially if it lingers at all like his 2012 injury did.

—–

Luis Cruz missed a couple days of Spring Training action with flu-like symptoms.

Cruz was in urgent care most of Tuesday, where he received IV treatment. He has returned to the lineup and the issue isn’t a concern, unless he actually has the plague or something ridiculous.

Nothing to see here.

—–

Ted Lilly made his Spring Training debut Thursday after an off-season of recovery from shoulder surgery.

Lilly reported no setbacks as he worked his way back into shape.

—–

Matt Guerrier is healthy and ready to contribute to the pen following an injury-plagued 2012.

He opted to not have elbow surgery in the off-season, a la Billingsley, and instead received plasma-rich injections.

Guerrier’s curveball was especially sharp, a sure sign that, like Chad Billingsley, Guerrier has recovered from his injury because of platelet-rich plasma injections to avoid surgery.

“Curveballs hurt me last year when I threw them,” Guerrier said. “Today, it feels completely normal.”

“I was fairly optimistic after that,” he said. “Then once I started to throw in the offseason it felt completely different.”

Guerrier’s health may help us avoid Kevin Gregg, but Matt has never been anything more than a meh reliever, with just one season of an FIP below 3.9, and a K/9 mark that has never reached 7. The Dodgers don’t need to rely upon Guerrier to have a successful pen, but any avoidance of Gregg and the likes is a win, let’s be honest.

—–

Justin Sellers missed workouts because of an ingrown toenail, which he got removed, but he expects to be back today.

=====

Greg Zakwin is the founder of the site Plaschke Thy Sweater Is Argyle. Follow him on Twitter @ArgyledPlaschke.

The Dodgers, as a club, have a ton of injuries or guys rehabbing, so I expect this feature to be busy all season.

Two of the most important injury cases will start off today, as we get timeline updates on Matt Kemp and Carl Crawford.

Manager Don Mattingly said March 1 is a very rough target date for Kemp to get into games coming off left shoulder surgery. Crawford will likely be later than that as he returns from Tommy John elbow reconstruction.

“I don’t go definitely March 1 with Matt, because it might not be until March 5 or March 7 when he’s ready to play. That doesn’t mean anything’s wrong.”

Mattingly said both are likely to break in as designated hitters at first.

“Both guys I’ll DH a little early on,” Mattingly said on Friday. “Carl more likely [than Kemp]. He won’t get into games until the medical tests [clear their participation]. I don’t want him in a game and reacting and doing something like spinning to make a throw that we don’t want him doing.”

Kemp is doing all baseball activities, while Crawford is still on a conservative throwing program to rebuild arm strength with the hope that he will be ready by Opening Day.

Crawford is able to hit and participate in most workouts, but he is limited in throwing drills and hasn’t yet thrown beyond 90 feet.

Kemp will be delayed a bit, so he’s not on a completely normal schedule, but he sounds healthy aside from that and should be ready to start the season.

Crawford? Not so much. He seems intent on making an Opening Day appearance, but there’s no logic in rushing him back, especially given that he’s had the past two years submarined by injuries, and exposing him to injury risk by playing him at like 75% seems incredibly stupid.

——

Elian Herrera, who got buzzed in the helmet yesterday, appears to be fine.

Dodgers utility man Elian Herrera narrowly escaped injury Sunday when White Sox pitcher Jake Petricka grazed his helmet with a fastball.

“If I didn’t move, maybe I die right now,” said Herrera. “It was coming right at my face. Not good.”

Herrera remained in the game until the Dodgers’ half of the inning ended, then was removed for precautionary purposes, but said he was fine.

Considering that he’s one of the few options the Dodgers have for the backup center fielder spot, his health may end up being important the club.

—–

Tony Gwynn Jr. apparently tried to play through a sports hernia in 2012 but is healthy now.

Gwynn, 30, played with an injury that was never discussed by him or the club. He believes he suffered a sports hernia lifting weights after the 2011 season, but he never had an MRI to diagnose it.

“I didn’t want to know,” he said Friday. “I wasn’t having surgery no matter what I had.”

He was hurting last Spring Training, hurting when Matt Kemp went down with that hamstring injury in early May and the relapse in late May. Needing to fill in for Kemp on almost an everyday basis for several months, Gwynn’s already injured body finally broke down.

You hear this a ton, but it rarely ever works out the way players intend. I totally understand the motivation to play through major injury, but in the end, they usually end up performing terribly and aggravating the injury, which hurts both the team and their career.

—–

Jerry Hairston Jr. is recovering from hip labrum surgery.

There was some measure of satisfaction for Jerry Hairston on Saturday just being in the starting lineup for the Dodgers’ exhibition opener.

Five months ago, bedridden after hip surgery, he doubted it was possible.

“It wasn’t easy,” said Hairston. “I worked really hard to get back. But for the first three months, I didn’t know if I’d be able to play at this level now.”

Unlike other Dodgers coming off surgery, it doesn’t appear as if the injury will limit him going forward.

—–

As mentioned in the other feature, Eliezer Alfonzo, who signed a minor-league deal in the off-season with an invitation to Spring Training, has been felled by dengue fever and was replaced in major-league camp by Matt Wallach. Eliezer will report to the minor-league portion of Camelback Ranch once healthy enough to do so.

The 2013 projection for the Dodgers from Dan Szymborski‘s ZiPS system was released last week, and given that it’s probably my favorite forecasting tool, it’s worth a look to see how the team fared.

Forecasting is not a complete science, obviously, and I’ll address some of the potential pitfalls as we go along, but it’s better to use objective tools like these than the hopes/dreams of fans or the bitterness/wishes of haters.

To start us off, how does the team fare, generally speaking? A solid playoff contender, for sure, but a super team? Doesn’t seem likely.

—–

The Field Players

Despite all the hype over the recent acquisitions, the key cogs in this machine are still Clayton Kershaw and Matt Kemp. It’s a promising sign then, that Kemp projects at a 144 OPS+ and the system has confidence in him continuing to put up offensive numbers in the ~.900 OPS range. His defense in center still lags below average, but his bat more than makes up for it. His playing time projection has dropped due to his injury woes last season, and quite frankly, it’s hard to fault it for that. Regardless, he still figures to be the most valuable field player on the team.

Adrian Gonzalez is slated to be another bright spot, as ZiPS pegs him to bounceback a bit, though not as much as some want, clocking in at an ~.830 OPS/128 OPS+. That would still be his lowest OPS+ since 2008 (besides 2012, of course), but it’s a marked improvement considering his age and negatively trending skills. A-Gon compensates for that lagging bat a bit by putting up plus defense almost worth a win by itself. Hanley Ramirez factors in as yet another bounceback candidate, projecting at a 115 OPS+, which is an upgrade over last year’s 106 and is closer to his pre-2011 production. Defensively, even his horribad -8 run defensive rating is optimistic to me, as he was truly terrible with the glove last year. Given that I already wanted to barf seeing him trying to turn a double play in 2012, I wouldn’t be surprised at all to see him put up horrid defensive numbers after basically not playing the position all of spring.

Unfortunately, that’s where a lot of the offensive optimism ends. Luis Cruz checks in at 84 OPS+ (106 last year), which will anger many fans, but is completely reasonable given the track record. He remains valuable through plus defense, though given the sample size, there’s reason to be skeptical there as well. A.J. Ellis at 96 OPS+ (118) is another depressing but completely logical projection, as evidenced by everybody’s surprise in 2012 at his potent bat. Andre Ethier at 112 OPS+ (123) is hard to figure for me, because he has been consistently putting up ~120 OPS+ seasons even if it has come down from the ~130 OPS+ range two years ago. I suppose the projection system thinks he’ll get old in a hurry … or maybe it just thinks he’ll face an inordinately high amount of lefties. Mark Ellis at 81 OPS+ (93) shouldn’t be much of a surprise considering he’s 36 and put up an 80 OPS+ at Coors Field in 2011.

The last guy of the starters is Carl Crawford, who is the enigma of the 2013 season. He checks in at 104, which is notable because it’s basically his career OPS+ and it’s about what he did in limited time in 2012 over in Boston. That’s of particular note for me, because what he did in Boston in 2012 can be attributed to a mechanical fix that I pointed out in an article for Baseball Prospectus. Understandably, his playing time checks in low, but if he can produce like he did in 2012 but over a whole season, the Dodgers will be much better for it.

Overall, after fixing the playing time of A.J., adjusting Ethier’s offense up a bit, and adjusting Hanley’s defense down a bit, the starting lineup totaled about 22 WAR.

—–

The Bench & The Prospects

Assuming a bench of Tim Federowicz, Scott Van Slyke or Alex Castellanos, Jerry Hairston Jr., Nick Punto, and Skip Schumaker, we’re looking at around 3 WAR here after playing time is adjusted back to realistic bench levels. I’m guessing Alfredo Amezaga or Tony Gwynn Jr. work their way in somehow, but a five-man bench seems likely initially if the Dodgers can’t deal multiple pitchers before the season starts. Neither player would affect the WAR projection much though.

Honestly? I have to hope the Dodgers do something to improve the bench, because the current configuration looks rather mediocre, and the other options are keeping Juan Uribe and/or Elian Herrera. Yuck.

The good news is that Joc Pederson, T-Fed, SVS, and Castle are projected to be solid at the MLB level, though it sees Dee Gordon basically languishing behind.

—–

The Rotation

Clayton Kershaw is simply a beast, and he figures to check in with a 75 FIP-. This might seem high considering his 2011 and 2012 ERA- figures of 63 and 67, respectively, but when you consider that Felix Hernandez clocks in at 78 FIP- for 2013, you get the picture.

What might surprise is how close new acquisition Zack Greinke comes in behind him, as he figures to put up an FIP- of 81. Granted, he has always projected favorably, as his career FIP- is 80, while his career ERA- is 88, but even adjusting slightly for that, there’s a definite case there for the best 1-2 punch in the majors.

Unfortunately, this is where it gets murky, as Chad Billingsley has the stuff to be the #3, but if I were a betting man, I would bet his elbow implodes before July. He projects at 92 FIP-, which would put him around last year’s performance, which was his arguably his best season since 2008. However, given the nature of his injury and its history in the league, you can basically never rely on him to stay healthy again until he has Tommy John surgery.

Next in the pecking order are Josh Beckett, who comes in below-average at 103, and foreign import Hyun Jin Ryu, who comes in well below-average at 116. As mentioned before, the scouting reports for Beckett match this projection, as he’s no longer a front-line starter due to his decrease in velocity. However, if he can manage to learn to pitch a bit more, he still has the curve to perhaps slot in as a #3 more than a #4. Ryu is a case where I would take any projection with a mound of salt, because there’s hardly anything to base objective projections on. Personally, I don’t think Ryu has the stuff to be a #2, nor do I think he’ll be a #3 on a team with a $250 million payroll, but he should slot in comfortably in the back-end of the rotation for years. I would project something slightly below-average for 2013 and then hope for better.

The rotation is a strong point because it has both arguably the best 1-2 punch in the majors and depth, with Chris Capuano (108 FIP-) and Aaron Harang (114 FIP) presumably traded for upgrades (or maybe kept somehow?), and it checks in at about 17 WAR.

—–

The Bullpen & The Prospects

As of right now, I’m assuming a bullpen of Brandon League, Kenley Jansen, Ronald Belisario, Javy Guerra, Matt Guerrier, J.P. Howell, and Ted Lilly.

Jansen is the best of the bunch (63 FIP-) and League projects a distant second (92 FIP-), but Belisario has the most upside in these projections (101 FIP-). After that, Guerra, Guerrier, and Howell are all around replacement level. Lilly projects as a league-average pitcher, assuming he’s healthy, which would be a boon to a team that has a ticking time bomb in the rotation.

As far as prospects go, ZiPS thinks Chris Reed could be a replacement-level fill-in right now, but Zach Lee, Matt Magill, and Garrett Gould need more seasoning. And for all of you who have Stephen Fife wet dreams (yes, you’re out there), he projects at a 4.91 FIP, so keep it in your pants.

Speaking of replacement level, that especially applies to the Dodgers bullpen because of Shawn Tolleson, Scott Elbert, Steven Ames, and Paco Rodriguez, so the 4 WAR projection for this pen figures to be solid.

—–

Team Projection

A replacement-level team figures to win 43 games, and the team with the lowest amount of wins to get into the playoffs last year was the Cardinals at 88 wins, so 42 WAR puts you in the contender range and 45 WAR makes you viable, while 50 WAR will generally make a team a safe bet to be in the postseason. The Dodgers total 46 WAR, which puts them well within the playoff hunt: good but not great.

The Dodgers basically project neck-and-neck with the rival Giants, while the D-Backs lag behind a bit by maybe a half dozen wins or so, but they’re well within striking distance as well.

So make no mistake, the Dodgers recent spending habits did not make them an elite team, as the money simply duct-taped over both a flawed team and farm system depleted by Frank McCourt‘s ownership and Ned Colletti‘s questionable decisions. But that’s not to denigrate the job the new owners have done, as they turned the franchise into a legitimate playoff contender seemingly overnight, which is still saying a lot about what money can do.

Granted, “we gave you a team that has the chance to make the playoffs” is not what fans want to hear, but it’s an acceptable scenario as they lay the foundation to rebuild the franchise the correct way in their own minds. The 2013 projections might not reflect world-beaters like most seem to expect, but it’s a projection based on historical trends rather than hopes and dreams.

The 2013 Dodgers are indeed a team with a lot of upside, and if everything breaks correctly, they could very well end up being one of the best teams in the league, but they also carry a ton of inherent age and injury risk, which is why the projections come in understandably conservative. Either way, if nothing else, this team figures to be never boring.

Ken Gurnick reports that Matt Kemp is ahead of schedule in his recovery from offseason shoulder surgery, and that Kemp expects to be ready for Opening Day. Kemp has reported still feeling soreness in the shoulder he injured after crashing into the outfield wall in Colorado on consecutive days:

“That’s my goal,” said Kemp. “I’m hitting off the tee, no soft toss yet. I have my good days and bad days. It’s still a little sore. But being ready for the season is all that matters.”

This is the downside to players wanting to play through severe injuries and teams allowing them to. Last year’s playoff push was not more important than the next decade or so of Kemp’s career, and the Dodgers letting him play was a terrible idea even at the time.

“I couldn’t shut it down,” Kemp said. “They told me to shut it down and think about surgery — or at least rest. But I just couldn’t do it. I had to continue and play. That’s what I do. I can’t sit and watch.”

Players obviously always want to be on the field, but that’s why coaches and trainers exist.

—–

Scott Elbert underwent arthroscopic surgery on his left elbow Wednesday, the second such surgery he’s had on the elbow this offseason. Elbert will be able to resume throwing in six weeks, and his availability for Opening Day is not a certainty.

This figures to open the door for J.P. Howell, Paco Rodriguez, and Ted Lilly, if they weren’t already ahead to begin with.

=====

Greg Zakwin is the founder of the site Plaschke Thy Sweater Is Argyle. Follow him on Twitter @ArgyledPlaschke.

Matt Kemp has begun upper-body workouts for the first time since offseason shoulder surgery. Kemp’s agent, Dave Stewart, relays that The Bison is pain-free three months after his surgery.

—–

Chad Billingsley continues to progress from his elbow injury and has reported no setbacks thus far, according to Ken Gurnick.

“Physically, Chad’s doing great, and he’s excited about the year,” said Stewart. “He sounds confident. I’m not in his head, but he sounds like he’s relieved that the throwing program worked out well. He’s pain-free. He said he’s right where he needs to be.”

Promising news, but again, the reason for the rotation depth is that nobody really knows how he’ll hold up until he gets out there on the mound and goes full bore.

—–

Mark Saxon of ESPN Los Angeles has an update on Carl Crawford‘s offseason progress and Don Mattingly‘s expectations of his continued recovery from Tommy John surgery.

“It’s all positive, nothing negative,” Mattingly said. “His throwing will probably be a little behind at first, but as I recall, he wasn’t a guy who had a cannon to begin with. He can go get the ball and he’s a good defender, but his defense isn’t really built around having a good arm.”

Probably one of the most important players for the Dodgers going forward, at least in terms of boom-or-bust potential. He can be anything from a 4-5 win player to a complete non-factor due to injury like he was the last two years, so obviously the status of his health looms large.

=====

Greg Zakwin is the founder of the site Plaschke Thy Sweater Is Argyle. Follow him on Twitter @ArgyledPlaschke.