If you hadn’t seen it yet, then … that happened with Matt Guerrier.

Then Mike Petriello tweeted out this:

“I don’t always give up homers, but when i do, they travel really, really goddamn far.” — @mattygrrr

— Mike Petriello (@mike_petriello) March 5, 2013

And I think he’s on to something.

Carl Crawford took live batting practice against an actual pitcher for the first time since elbow surgery last August. However, yesterday he reported forearm soreness and was held out of batting practice and drills.

Crawford, rehabbing from Tommy John surgery on his left elbow last Aug. 23, took batting practice against live pitchers on Monday, but hasn’t been able to do so in the last two days. On Thursday morning when hitting off the tee in the batting cage, Crawford felt tightness in his forearm, and was shut down.

I wouldn’t overreact to it, but forearm stiffness is usually indicative of elbow ligament problems, which does seem normal since he’s rehabbing from Tommy John surgery, but it’s probably an indication that he’s moving a bit too quickly.

Update

Mattingly: @carlcrawford_ will not hit or throw for seven days due to nerve irritation in his elbow.

— Los Angeles Dodgers (@Dodgers) March 1, 2013

Indeed, the problem was elbow related and it seems it was a more serious setback than they initially let on.

—–

Chad Billingsley and his balky right elbow made it through his first start of Spring Training without any complications.

“After the first couple of throws I’m like, ‘Yeah this is fun’,” Billingsley said.

“Normally when you sit for a long half-inning, your arm gets tight and your body starts tightening up. But I went out there and had no problem getting loose or anything, so that’s great.”

“As soon as I left (Arizona) in October, I felt I was ready to go,” he said.

The news is, of course, positive, but whether they want to admit it or not, his condition will be speculated on all year long unless he never falters in terms of both performance and health.

—–

Matt Kemp continues rehabbing and could see live game action sooner than later.

No official date has been set for Kemp’s Spring Training debut, but he’s taking batting practice without issue.

Kemp, who underwent right shoulder surgery in October, hit in the cages Wednesday morning and felt good enough to take on-field batting practice — off of Mattingly — later in the workout. Mattingly said Kemp was fine and his extension, even on full swings and misses, caused no pain.

Seems like he’ll be ready to go once the season starts.

—–

Tony Gwynn Jr. was sidelined with a sore left groin muscle and had to miss a few days of workouts. He later said he expects to be back today, which is a positive since he’s battling desperately for a roster spot.

Gwynn is the only potential bench player with significant center field experience in the majors, so this setback can only hurt him and his chances, especially if it lingers at all like his 2012 injury did.

—–

Luis Cruz missed a couple days of Spring Training action with flu-like symptoms.

Cruz was in urgent care most of Tuesday, where he received IV treatment. He has returned to the lineup and the issue isn’t a concern, unless he actually has the plague or something ridiculous.

Nothing to see here.

—–

Ted Lilly made his Spring Training debut Thursday after an off-season of recovery from shoulder surgery.

Lilly reported no setbacks as he worked his way back into shape.

—–

Matt Guerrier is healthy and ready to contribute to the pen following an injury-plagued 2012.

He opted to not have elbow surgery in the off-season, a la Billingsley, and instead received plasma-rich injections.

Guerrier’s curveball was especially sharp, a sure sign that, like Chad Billingsley, Guerrier has recovered from his injury because of platelet-rich plasma injections to avoid surgery.

“Curveballs hurt me last year when I threw them,” Guerrier said. “Today, it feels completely normal.”

“I was fairly optimistic after that,” he said. “Then once I started to throw in the offseason it felt completely different.”

Guerrier’s health may help us avoid Kevin Gregg, but Matt has never been anything more than a meh reliever, with just one season of an FIP below 3.9, and a K/9 mark that has never reached 7. The Dodgers don’t need to rely upon Guerrier to have a successful pen, but any avoidance of Gregg and the likes is a win, let’s be honest.

—–

Justin Sellers missed workouts because of an ingrown toenail, which he got removed, but he expects to be back today.

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Greg Zakwin is the founder of the site Plaschke Thy Sweater Is Argyle. Follow him on Twitter @ArgyledPlaschke.

The 2013 projection for the Dodgers from Dan Szymborski‘s ZiPS system was released last week, and given that it’s probably my favorite forecasting tool, it’s worth a look to see how the team fared.

Forecasting is not a complete science, obviously, and I’ll address some of the potential pitfalls as we go along, but it’s better to use objective tools like these than the hopes/dreams of fans or the bitterness/wishes of haters.

To start us off, how does the team fare, generally speaking? A solid playoff contender, for sure, but a super team? Doesn’t seem likely.

—–

The Field Players

Despite all the hype over the recent acquisitions, the key cogs in this machine are still Clayton Kershaw and Matt Kemp. It’s a promising sign then, that Kemp projects at a 144 OPS+ and the system has confidence in him continuing to put up offensive numbers in the ~.900 OPS range. His defense in center still lags below average, but his bat more than makes up for it. His playing time projection has dropped due to his injury woes last season, and quite frankly, it’s hard to fault it for that. Regardless, he still figures to be the most valuable field player on the team.

Adrian Gonzalez is slated to be another bright spot, as ZiPS pegs him to bounceback a bit, though not as much as some want, clocking in at an ~.830 OPS/128 OPS+. That would still be his lowest OPS+ since 2008 (besides 2012, of course), but it’s a marked improvement considering his age and negatively trending skills. A-Gon compensates for that lagging bat a bit by putting up plus defense almost worth a win by itself. Hanley Ramirez factors in as yet another bounceback candidate, projecting at a 115 OPS+, which is an upgrade over last year’s 106 and is closer to his pre-2011 production. Defensively, even his horribad -8 run defensive rating is optimistic to me, as he was truly terrible with the glove last year. Given that I already wanted to barf seeing him trying to turn a double play in 2012, I wouldn’t be surprised at all to see him put up horrid defensive numbers after basically not playing the position all of spring.

Unfortunately, that’s where a lot of the offensive optimism ends. Luis Cruz checks in at 84 OPS+ (106 last year), which will anger many fans, but is completely reasonable given the track record. He remains valuable through plus defense, though given the sample size, there’s reason to be skeptical there as well. A.J. Ellis at 96 OPS+ (118) is another depressing but completely logical projection, as evidenced by everybody’s surprise in 2012 at his potent bat. Andre Ethier at 112 OPS+ (123) is hard to figure for me, because he has been consistently putting up ~120 OPS+ seasons even if it has come down from the ~130 OPS+ range two years ago. I suppose the projection system thinks he’ll get old in a hurry … or maybe it just thinks he’ll face an inordinately high amount of lefties. Mark Ellis at 81 OPS+ (93) shouldn’t be much of a surprise considering he’s 36 and put up an 80 OPS+ at Coors Field in 2011.

The last guy of the starters is Carl Crawford, who is the enigma of the 2013 season. He checks in at 104, which is notable because it’s basically his career OPS+ and it’s about what he did in limited time in 2012 over in Boston. That’s of particular note for me, because what he did in Boston in 2012 can be attributed to a mechanical fix that I pointed out in an article for Baseball Prospectus. Understandably, his playing time checks in low, but if he can produce like he did in 2012 but over a whole season, the Dodgers will be much better for it.

Overall, after fixing the playing time of A.J., adjusting Ethier’s offense up a bit, and adjusting Hanley’s defense down a bit, the starting lineup totaled about 22 WAR.

—–

The Bench & The Prospects

Assuming a bench of Tim Federowicz, Scott Van Slyke or Alex Castellanos, Jerry Hairston Jr., Nick Punto, and Skip Schumaker, we’re looking at around 3 WAR here after playing time is adjusted back to realistic bench levels. I’m guessing Alfredo Amezaga or Tony Gwynn Jr. work their way in somehow, but a five-man bench seems likely initially if the Dodgers can’t deal multiple pitchers before the season starts. Neither player would affect the WAR projection much though.

Honestly? I have to hope the Dodgers do something to improve the bench, because the current configuration looks rather mediocre, and the other options are keeping Juan Uribe and/or Elian Herrera. Yuck.

The good news is that Joc Pederson, T-Fed, SVS, and Castle are projected to be solid at the MLB level, though it sees Dee Gordon basically languishing behind.

—–

The Rotation

Clayton Kershaw is simply a beast, and he figures to check in with a 75 FIP-. This might seem high considering his 2011 and 2012 ERA- figures of 63 and 67, respectively, but when you consider that Felix Hernandez clocks in at 78 FIP- for 2013, you get the picture.

What might surprise is how close new acquisition Zack Greinke comes in behind him, as he figures to put up an FIP- of 81. Granted, he has always projected favorably, as his career FIP- is 80, while his career ERA- is 88, but even adjusting slightly for that, there’s a definite case there for the best 1-2 punch in the majors.

Unfortunately, this is where it gets murky, as Chad Billingsley has the stuff to be the #3, but if I were a betting man, I would bet his elbow implodes before July. He projects at 92 FIP-, which would put him around last year’s performance, which was his arguably his best season since 2008. However, given the nature of his injury and its history in the league, you can basically never rely on him to stay healthy again until he has Tommy John surgery.

Next in the pecking order are Josh Beckett, who comes in below-average at 103, and foreign import Hyun Jin Ryu, who comes in well below-average at 116. As mentioned before, the scouting reports for Beckett match this projection, as he’s no longer a front-line starter due to his decrease in velocity. However, if he can manage to learn to pitch a bit more, he still has the curve to perhaps slot in as a #3 more than a #4. Ryu is a case where I would take any projection with a mound of salt, because there’s hardly anything to base objective projections on. Personally, I don’t think Ryu has the stuff to be a #2, nor do I think he’ll be a #3 on a team with a $250 million payroll, but he should slot in comfortably in the back-end of the rotation for years. I would project something slightly below-average for 2013 and then hope for better.

The rotation is a strong point because it has both arguably the best 1-2 punch in the majors and depth, with Chris Capuano (108 FIP-) and Aaron Harang (114 FIP) presumably traded for upgrades (or maybe kept somehow?), and it checks in at about 17 WAR.

—–

The Bullpen & The Prospects

As of right now, I’m assuming a bullpen of Brandon League, Kenley Jansen, Ronald Belisario, Javy Guerra, Matt Guerrier, J.P. Howell, and Ted Lilly.

Jansen is the best of the bunch (63 FIP-) and League projects a distant second (92 FIP-), but Belisario has the most upside in these projections (101 FIP-). After that, Guerra, Guerrier, and Howell are all around replacement level. Lilly projects as a league-average pitcher, assuming he’s healthy, which would be a boon to a team that has a ticking time bomb in the rotation.

As far as prospects go, ZiPS thinks Chris Reed could be a replacement-level fill-in right now, but Zach Lee, Matt Magill, and Garrett Gould need more seasoning. And for all of you who have Stephen Fife wet dreams (yes, you’re out there), he projects at a 4.91 FIP, so keep it in your pants.

Speaking of replacement level, that especially applies to the Dodgers bullpen because of Shawn Tolleson, Scott Elbert, Steven Ames, and Paco Rodriguez, so the 4 WAR projection for this pen figures to be solid.

—–

Team Projection

A replacement-level team figures to win 43 games, and the team with the lowest amount of wins to get into the playoffs last year was the Cardinals at 88 wins, so 42 WAR puts you in the contender range and 45 WAR makes you viable, while 50 WAR will generally make a team a safe bet to be in the postseason. The Dodgers total 46 WAR, which puts them well within the playoff hunt: good but not great.

The Dodgers basically project neck-and-neck with the rival Giants, while the D-Backs lag behind a bit by maybe a half dozen wins or so, but they’re well within striking distance as well.

So make no mistake, the Dodgers recent spending habits did not make them an elite team, as the money simply duct-taped over both a flawed team and farm system depleted by Frank McCourt‘s ownership and Ned Colletti‘s questionable decisions. But that’s not to denigrate the job the new owners have done, as they turned the franchise into a legitimate playoff contender seemingly overnight, which is still saying a lot about what money can do.

Granted, “we gave you a team that has the chance to make the playoffs” is not what fans want to hear, but it’s an acceptable scenario as they lay the foundation to rebuild the franchise the correct way in their own minds. The 2013 projections might not reflect world-beaters like most seem to expect, but it’s a projection based on historical trends rather than hopes and dreams.

The 2013 Dodgers are indeed a team with a lot of upside, and if everything breaks correctly, they could very well end up being one of the best teams in the league, but they also carry a ton of inherent age and injury risk, which is why the projections come in understandably conservative. Either way, if nothing else, this team figures to be never boring.

As fans of the Dodgers, we’re always analyzing which pitchers have the best and worst pitches, but we normally base that on nothing but our own feelings at the moment, so I decided to take a more objective look at things.

For a pitch to qualify for these rankings, I used a 200-pitch minimum for starters and a 50-pitch minimum for relievers. The metric used to measure pitch effectiveness is True Average (TAv), which is basically like wOBA. League average performance is set at .260, and the metric doesn’t include baserunning.

Additionally, to prevent the post from being solely numbers-based, and one that would have been mind-numbingly boring, I decided to provide visual evidence as well.

—–

Worst Overall Pitches

Shawn Tolleson – Sinker – .395 TAv

Mike MacDougal – Sinker – .342 TAv

Matt Guerrier – Fastball – .320 TAv

Relief pitchers have smaller sample sizes, so they are prone to fluctuations, but they have the advantage of appearing in short bursts and limiting their arsenal to only their best pitches.

So … uh … this is TERRIBLE.

.395 is like 40 points higher than Mike Trout in 2012 for fucks sake.

H-h-how?

—–

Worst Individual Pitches

Fastball

Matt Guerrier – .320 TAv

*Visual Is Above*

Shawn Tolleson – .273
Javy Guerra – .256
Scott Elbert – .237
Ronald Belisario – .082

Ugh.

Sinker

Shawn Tolleson – .395 TAv

*Visual Is Above*

Mike MacDougal – .342
Brandon League – .280
Todd Coffey – .263
Randy Choate – .262
Jamey Wright – .258
Ronald Belisario – .225

No … just no.

Cutter

Jamey Wright – .258 TAv

Scott Elbert – .242
Javy Guerra – .208
Kenley Jansen – .187
Matt Guerrier – .139

Curve

Javy Guerra – .271 TAv

Jamey Wright – .171

Finishing last out of two isn’t bad, but giving up a .271 on a curve as a reliever is.

Slider

Kenley Jansen – .236 TAv

Jamey Wright – .215
Todd Coffey – .214
Shawn Tolleson – .206
Brandon League – .147
Ronald Belisario – .121
Randy Choate – .058

I actually think he could benefit from throwing this more often because it’s a quality pitch. Not hanging it is a different story, but how is he supposed to learn command of it if he never uses it?

Change

None Qualified

Splitter

Brandon League – .096 TAv

He’s the only reliever that qualified for this pitch, so I guess he’s technically the best and the worst, but considering his split was the second-most effective pitch by a reliever for the team in 2012, I’m pretty sure he gets a pass.

As fans of the Dodgers, we’re always analyzing which pitchers have the best and worst pitches, but we normally base that on nothing but our own feelings at the moment, so I decided to take a more objective look at things.

For a pitch to qualify for these rankings, I used a 200-pitch minimum for starters and a 50-pitch minimum for relievers. The metric used to measure pitch effectiveness is True Average (TAv), which is basically like wOBA. League average performance is set at .260, and the metric doesn’t include baserunning.

Additionally, to prevent the post from being solely numbers-based, and one that would have been mind-numbingly boring, I decided to provide visual evidence as well.

—–

Best Overall Pitches

Randy Choate – Slider – .058 TAv

Brandon League – Splitter – .096 TAv

Ronald Belisario – Slider – .121 TAv

The first two pitches should come as no surprise given that they are basically what both pitchers make their money off of. However, Ronald Belisario’s slider? Really? Yeah, but I’m guessing that’s almost entirely based on how surprised hitters are to see it when they’re expecting nothing but 95-97 mph sinking fastballs.

—–

Best Individual Pitches

Fastball

Scott Elbert – .237 TAv

Javy Guerra – .256
Shawn Tolleson – .273
Matt Guerrier – .320

Ronald Belisario’s .082 was disqualified because I’m about 99% sure these pitches were simply identified incorrectly. In any case, I’m surprised by how the Dodgers have zero fireballing fastball relievers.

Sinker

Ronald Belisario – .225 TAv

Jamey Wright – .258
Randy Choate – .262
Todd Coffey – .263
Brandon League – .280
Mike MacDougal – .342
Shawn Tolleson – .395

To have everybody know the pitch is coming and to still beat hitters with it is amazing.

Cutter

Kenley Jansen – .187 TAv

Javy Guerra – .208
Scott Elbert – .242
Jamey Wright – .258

Matt Guerrier actually had a .139, but he barely met the minimum and Kenley Jansen’s cutter is his main pitch and was still below .200, which is silly. Also, I’m biased and wanted to show that GIF. Deal with it.

Curve

Jamey Wright – .171 TAv

Javy Guerra – .271

Slider

Randy Choate – .058 TAv

*Visual Is Above*

Ronald Belisario – .121
Brandon League – .147
Shawn Tolleson – .206
Todd Coffey – .214
Jamey Wright – .215
Kenley Jansen – .236

Unfair to lefties, really.

Change

None Qualified

Splitter

Brandon League – .096 TAv

*Visual Is Above*

When he has got his command working, it’s a filthy, filthy pitch.

Yes, this is the final installment of the 2012 Season Review for the Dodgers, and if you want to catch up on the others, then you can check out this tag here.

Otherwise, in the tables listed below, I have calculated the WAR (along with its components), value, and surplus value of every player on the Dodgers payroll in 2012.

It’s not meant to be taken literally (“A.J. Ellis is a better player than Matt Kemp!“), but I always learn stuff about the team that I hadn’t previously realized when I do it.

—–

The three best players on the Dodgers, according to WAR, were A.J. Ellis, Matt Kemp, and Andre Ethier, in order. The most valuable players, according to surplus value, were A.J. Ellis, Luis Cruz, and Mark Ellis.

Best hitters? Kemp, Ethier, and A.J. Ellis. Best baserunners? Dee Gordon, Shane Victorino, and Hanley Ramirez. Best fielders? Mark Ellis, Jerry Hairston Jr., and Cruz.

The three worst players on the Dodgers, according to WAR, were Gordon, Juan Rivera, and Alex Castellanos. The least valuable players, according to surplus value (excluding dead money), were Juan Uribe, James Loney, and Rivera.

Worst hitters? Gordon, Tony Gwynn Jr., and Uribe. Worst baserunners? A.J. Ellis, Adrian Gonzalez, and Matt Treanor. Worst fielders? Gordon, Kemp, Ramirez.

In related news, did you realize the Dodgers are STILL paying Juan Pierre? Good grief.

The three best pitchers on the Dodgers, according to WAR, were Clayton Kershaw, Chad Billingsley, and Chris Capuano, in order. The most valuable pitchers, according to surplus value, were Kershaw, Kenley Jansen, and Capuano.

The three worst pitchers on the Dodgers, according to WAR, were John Ely, Matt Guerrier, and Mike MacDougal. The least valuable players, according to surplus value (excluding dead money), were Ted Lilly, Guerrier, and Ely.

In related news, you can see why the Dodgers want to upgrade their rotation, as the team defense was decidedly average, but the staff RA WAR outperformed their FIP WAR by six wins.

—–

If there are any questions, let me know below.

Kenley Jansen

Kenley Jansen entered 2012 as the set-up man with elite stuff, freed up to face the opponents’ best hitters should they be due up before the ninth inning. It was the perfect scenario, considering the closer role is a vastly overrated entity. Though Jansen was slotted correctly, he quickly found himself as the closer following some early struggles in that role by Javy Guerra.

Jansen closed 2012 with his third-straight dominant season, posting a 2.40 FIP and 1.81 SIERA while whiffing a magnificent 13.71/9 IP. He appeared in a career-high 65 games and 65 innings, and though he allowed a few more long-balls (six homers after three in 2011 and none in 2010), he more importantly cut down impressively on his free passes for a third consecutive campaign (5.00/4.36/3.05 per nine innings). Also of note is his continued ability to induce infield popups, which has always been excellent (16% in 2010 & 10.9% in 2011), as he reached a new career best in 2012 (19.4 IFFB%).

To put it another way, as infield popups are essentially as effective as strikeouts, Jansen “whiffed” roughly 60% of the hitters he faced in 2012. That is insane, obviously.

Though all has been well from a between-the-lines perspective, Jansen has seen his short career put in jeopardy multiple times due to a heart ailment that has afflicted him for parts of the 2011 regular season, Spring Training of 2012, and most recently the 2012 regular season. While Jansen has thankfully been able to return from all three bouts, the irregular heartbeat has been recurring, which is troublesome for his health and career prospects.

Jansen and the Dodgers have taken action though, as Kenley recently underwent heart surgery to correct the problem. All seems well thus far, as no complications from the surgery have been revealed, and all reports indicate he’ll be ready to go for 2013. He’ll recuperate for at least three months prior to resuming baseball activities, and with his electric stuff, fantastic ability to get hitters to swing-and-miss, and three straight seasons of improving WAR (1.1/1.3/1.9), the sky is the limit for the former backstop as he continues to refine his new craft.

Brandon League

Acquired for Leon Landry and Logan Bawcom, Brandon League arrived having been stripped of his closer duties in Seattle. His 2012 with the Mariners was a season typical of your average middle reliever, as League was fanning only 5.44 per nine while walking far too many (3.83/9 IP), and had a 3.45 FIP and 4.43 SIERA. I was against the trade when it happened and League did nothing to assuage my mind in his first few outings, as he was charged with six earned runs through his first seven games with Los Angeles.

League rebounded to end 2012 strongly though, allowing one earned run from August 21 on. His strikeout rate ticked up in LA to 8.89/9 IP, the highest it had been since 2009, though he walked even more at 4.61/9
IP. His new-found success was attributed to mechanical flaws that were corrected by Rick Honeycutt and his staff.

Whether that’s true and whether his success carries over into the future or not, the 29-year-old heads into free agency banking that teams will be looking at his recent performance over his career track record that consists of 6.71 K/9 IP, 3.10 BB/9 IP, a 3.81 FIP, and a WAR that’s eclipsed 1.0 twice.

Ronald Belisario

After a time spent pretending to be Tony Montana, Ronald Belisario returned to the States and MLB in 2012. Following a 25-game suspension for violating baseball’s drug policy, Belisario made his season debut in early May and would go on to appear in a bullpen-high 68 games and 71 innings.

Belisario posted a 3.09 FIP and 2.80 SIERA, and after starting the year out-pitching his peripherals and shiny ERA, had a very good season after his year off. He fanned just shy of a batter per inning while walking 3.68 per nine and inducing a mess of ground balls (64.5 GB%), which resulted in just three homers allowed in ’12.

Belisario, after all of his troubles, is line for a nice raise from the $480,000 he made on a one-year deal in 2012. He qualified for Super Two status and is arbitration eligible, and he will be an integral part of the pen in 2013.

Javy Guerra

Javy Guerra entered 2012 as the Dodgers closer, though not the most talented reliever on the team, which is perfectly fine and is actually my preferred method of bullpen management. Following a rocky start and a liner to the head, Guerra was removed in favor of Jansen in early May.

After allowing eight earned runs in his first 14 games, which included three blown saves and a pair of losses, Guerra settled down before succumbing to a knee injury that ended his season in early September.

Though Guerra’s season is largely viewed as a failure by many, his 2012 was, in actuality, little different from his 2011 season. His strikeout rate increased (7.33/7.40), his HR/9 IP rate improved (0.39/0.20), and his FIP (3.30/3.34) and WAR remained stable (0.9/0.8).

Guerra’s “struggles” were two-fold. First, the self-inflicted portion: Guerra walked too many guys in 2012, as his BB/9 IP jumped from a high 3.47 to a terrible 4.60 per nine. That must be corrected for Javy to see more success. Second, his BABIP increased to .321 from .261. In other words, after getting lucky in 2011, 2012 saw that luck shift entirely the other way. There is almost certainly a happy medium, and in that place, Guerra is a solid contributor to the pen as a middle reliever.

Scott Elbert

After an excellent 2011 that ended with a new established role in the pen, Scott Elbert finished 2012 on the DL with an elbow injury that felled him from late August on. I wouldn’t be shocked if the elbow bothered him all year, as his numbers fell across the board.

Elbert struck out less per nine (9.18/7.99), gave up more homers (0.27/0.83), and saw a significant drop in FIP (2.73/3.80) and SIERA (3.23/3.76). The lefty also uncharacteristically struggled against his fellow southpaws in comparison with his 2011 success (.271/.342/.342/.684 after a .191/.267/.227/. 494 slash line the year before).

With Randy Choate a possibility to return if he and the club share a mutual interest, and young Paco Rodriguez emerging as another option, Elbert’s health and success in Spring Training will go a long way in determining his future with the club after years and years of injuries finally appeared to be behind him.

Shawn Tolleson

Shawn Tolleson, the club’s top relief prospect heading into 2012, got the call in early June before getting the Blake DeWitt treatment and shuffling between The Show and the minors. Though he moved around, he ended up appearing in 40 games and just under 40 innings.

Known for his swing-and-miss ability and domination of the minors, Tolleson whiffed 9.32/9 IP while posting a 4.08 FIP and 3.78 SIERA. He did struggle with his control at times, walking 4.78 per nine, and he allowed almost a homer per nine.

Five outings — in which he allowed between two and four runs in each — skewed the 24-year-old righty’s numbers a bit, though not as much as his massive struggles against the 68 lefties he faced, who hit a combined .316/.426/.471/.897 against the Texan. On the other side of the coin, Shawn was death to righties, holding them to a .152/.244/.207/.453 line.

Those lefty struggles not withstanding, the future is exceptionally bright for Clayton Kershaw‘s former teammate. Tolleson will have a prominent role in the pen going forward — whether that role begins at the outset of 2013 or not –  and a young pen featuring Jansen/Tolleson/Rodriguez/Guerra should have fans excited.

Randy Choate

Acquired in the Hanley Ramirez deal, Choate arrived with the reputation of a lefty specialist (.201/.278/.252/.530 career) and continued to dominate his brethren in 2012, limiting them to a .158/.243/.190/.433 slash line.

Though he held lefties down in 2012, Choate was mediocre overall after arriving, posting a 4.89 FIP, 4.16 SIERA, and a negative WAR (-0.1). Most troubling was his propensity for issuing free passes, to the tune of 6.08 per nine in his 36 appearances.

Paco Rodriguez

Just 21 and fresh out of college in the spring of 2012, Paco Rodriguez found himself in 11 games down the stretch and whiffed a very impressive 8.1 per nine over those 6.2 innings. He posted a 3.09 FIP and 4.17 SIERA — as well as a .143/.200/.133/.333 slash line against lefties — in his very small sample size of a career, and holds the distinction of being the first 2012 draftee to debut in The Show.

Rodriguez enters 2013 with just north of 25 professional innings under his belt, and could very likely open 2013 on the major-league roster. Paco’s immediate future hinges on Elbert’s health, the signing of some other free agent lefty specialist, and his 2013 Spring Training performance.

While he has stuff to improve upon (like his control), if he can solidify a spot in the pen he would provide the Dodgers with another lefty and a cheap bullpen option with a ton of upside.

Jamey Wright

Jamey Wright, who made the team out of Spring Training after signing a minor-league deal, surprised most with a solid campaign, surpassing expectations in his 66 appearances and 67.2 innings pitched.

Wright fanned 7.18 per nine while posting a 3.39 FIP and 3.15 SIERA. His splits were quite wacky all the way around, as he allowed southpaws to get on-base more, but righties knocked him around in terms of extra-base hits (.252/.365/.230/.595 versus LH & .283/.337/.329/.666 versus RH).

As alluded to above, Wright did struggle with his control, as he allowed around 4.0 BB/9. He did a great job, however, of keeping the ball in the park — 0.27 HR/9 — which saved him from those walks becoming more damaging. Hitters actually benefited from a bit of luck against him with a .324 BABIP, but Wright’s strong propensity for inducing ground balls (67.3%) and infield popups (12.0% IFFB) allowed him to escape his control problems relatively unscathed.

Having lived off minor-league deals, which he turned into major-league roster spots, for most of the past decade, Wright will head into 2012 — his age-38 season — with a strong likelihood of obtaining a major-league contract. Earning just under $1.5 million last year, Wright will probably receive a small raise, and the Dodgers could do a lot worse.

Odds & Ends

Matt Guerrier spent most of 2012 on the shelf with right elbow inflammation, but managed to return late in the season and appeared in 16 games totaling 14 innings. It did not go well. He pitched to a 6.31 FIP and 4.86 SIERA while walking seven, hitting a batter, and allowing a total of 16 baserunners, six earned runs, and 56 total bases against.

He has a year remaining — at $3.75 million — on the ridiculous three-year deal that Ned Colletti signed him to in late-2010. Whether he has a place in the bullpen though, considering the superior arms around him, is another story entirely.

—–

Josh Lindblom, prior to being dealt to Philadelphia in the Shane Victorino trade, struggled despite some solid peripherals following a breakout 2011. Though he struck out 8.12/9 IP while walking 3.40/9 IP, Lindblom put up a 5.07 FIP, though his SIERA was a fine 3.66.

What really killed him was the long-ball, as following a 2011 in which he didn’t allow a single homer in almost 30 innings, Josh was touched up for nine dingers before being traded.

—–

I honestly forgot Mike MacDougal was a Dodger in 2012, but he began the year on a ludicrous guaranteed one-year major-league deal. He quickly flamed out, lasting seven games and 5.2 innings too long. In that short time, he allowed 15 baserunners, five earned runs, and 32 total bases.

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Greg Zakwin is the founder of the site Plaschke Thy Sweater Is Argyle. Follow him on Twitter @ArgyledPlaschke.

I didn’t like the Brandon League trade at the time it was executed, primarily because the effect that a reliever can have in such a short time period is both volatile and minimal. That dislike for the deal grew to mockery when he got off to a horrid start, but after the Dodgers said they fixed his mechanics (and I found that they actually did), he reeled off an undoubtedly impressive stretch of pitching.

While that was a wonderful way to finish the season for him, perhaps it wasn’t worth it if the rumor about Ned Colletti being in talks with League’s agent regarding a three-year deal rings true.

The Dodgers are talking to League’s representatives about a three-year contract, according to people familiar with the negotiations.

Yikes.

League is a career 3.60 ERA and 3.81 FIP reliever, while the average reliever put up a 3.67 ERA and 3.79 FIP in 2012. Both his career strikeout and walk rates aren’t anything to write home about, clocking in a 6.71 K/9 and 3.10 BB/9. So there’s immediate concern there that he’s basically a solid, average reliever.

The upside is that he’s posted a 2.78 FIP in 2011 and a 3.19 FIP in 2012, but he has proven to be anything but consistent over his career, and his mechanics fade in and out seemingly at random, so choosing him as the guy to invest multiple years in seems like an iffy plan at best.

Factor in the recent history regarding relievers on multi-year deals, and it looks downright frightening.

Unfortunately for the teams with the open wallets, recent history suggests that giving contracts of 3+ years to a relief pitcher is generally a terrible idea. Here’s a list of free agent relievers who have received deals for three or more years since over the last four off-seasons.

Danys Baez (2007-2009), 3 years, $19 million: -0.4 WAR
Justin Speier (2007-2010), 4 years, $18 million: -0.2 WAR
Jamie Walker (2007-2009), 3 years, $12 million: -0.5 WAR
Scott Schoeneweis (2007-2009), 3 years, $11 million: -1.5 WAR
Chad Bradford (2007-2009), 3 years, $11 million: +2.0 WAR
Francisco Cordero (2008-2011), 4 years, $46 million: +2.8 WAR
Mariano Rivera (2008-2010), 3 years, $45 million: +7.8 WAR
Scott Linebrink (2008-2011), 4 years, $18 million: +0.5 WAR
David Riske (2008-2010), 3 years, $13 million: -0.6 WAR
Francisco Rodriguez (2009-2011), 3 years, $36 million: +1.7 WAR
Damaso Marte (2009-2011), 3 years, $12 million: -0.2 WAR
Brandon Lyon (2010-2012), 3 years, $15 million: +1.0 WAR

Things haven’t got significantly better for relievers in recent times either.

25 relievers signed deals with an average annual value greater than $1 million. Five of them signed multi-year deals. The results were… mixed. First, the multi-year deals:

Jonathan Papelbon, PHI (4/$50M): 2.44 ERA, 70 IP, 38 SV
Heath Bell, MIA (3/$27M): 5.09 ERA, 63.2 IP, 19 SV
Joe Nathan, TEX (2/$14.5M): 2.80 ERA, 64.1 IP, 37 SV
Frank Francisco, NYM (2/$12M): 5.53 ERA, 42.1 IP, 23 SV
Javier Lopez, SFG (2/$8.5M): 2.50 ERA, 36 IP, 7 SV

Three were quite good, two were very bad, and one did not even play in the Majors. In total, the six relievers combined to earn in $120.4 million over 15 total years, an average annual value exceeding $8 million. Of course, that is a bit top-heavy towards Papelbon, but a 50 percent success rate is less than impressive.

Not enough? Ned Colletti can look at his own experience.

He has actually had a lot of success building piecemeal bullpens, primarily from the farm system, but also by taking a few fliers on veterans for one year or on a minor-league contract. The only reliever he has EVER signed to a multi-year deal is Matt Guerrier, who has thus far contributed a grand total of ~0.0 WAR and will probably be a middle reliever if he’s lucky in 2013.

MLB Trade Rumors noticed last off-season that GMs around baseball were catching the hint on giving multi-year deals to relievers, no matter how good they are.

Hopefully the Dodgers follow suit, because recent history is certainly not on their side.

Matt Kemp left Tuesday’s game in Colorado after smashing into the center field wall, somehow managing to stay in, and soon thereafter diving for a ball and landing awkwardly. If you’re so inclined, GIFs of the collision can be seen here. Tests revealed no concussion or concussion symptoms, and Matt walked away from the incident with nothing more than a bruised left knee. He returned to the lineup a few days after the frightening incident.

—–

Kenley Jansen was unavailable for the series in Colorado after experiencing recurring issues with his heart, which felled him for a month or so in 2011 and earlier in 2012 during Spring Training. These new issues are related to the old ones, reports Dylan Hernandez. The Dodgers and Jansen await test results, as his season could be over.

—–

Chad Billingsley‘s season also hangs in the balance as he awaits what could be season-ending surgery. These fears were expressed earlier in the week by Stan Kasten. Bills’ right elbow was treated with an injection of platelet-rich plasma in an effort to avoid missing the stretch run. Tommy John surgery seems like a possibility if our worst fears come to fruition.

—–

Scott Elbert was placed on the 15-day DL once again with left elbow inflammation. Shawn Tolleson was recalled to take his place. Don Mattingly is cautiously optimistic that Elbert could return when the 15-day period concludes.

—–

Matt Guerrier was activated from the 60-day DL, sending Josh Wall back to AAA and Dee Gordon from the 15-day DL to the 60-day DL in the process. Gordon won’t be gone for long though, as he is eligible to return now that rosters have expanded.

—–

Alfredo Silverio was transferred to the 60-day DL in order to free up a spot on the 40-man roster to allow for John Ely‘s call-up. Silverio is on the DL after suffering multiple injuries in a car crash earlier this year.

—–

In minor league injury news, Arismendy Ozoria, Luis Vasquez, Mike Antonini, Jarret Martin, Aaron Miller, Greg Wilborn, Casio Grider, Charlie Mirabal, Bobby Coyle, and Tyler Henson were all placed on the 7-day DL, while a host of others – most notably Chris Reed and Bobby Abreu – were activated from the 7-day DL.

Chad Billingsley is back on the 15-day DL for the second time this season, and once again it’s due to right elbow soreness. Bills had an MRI that revealed inflammation and will have further tests once the inflammation has subsided.

Chad left his last start early after feeling something in the elbow on a pitch. He had been on quite the run since returning from his first elbow injury, and will be replaced in the rotation by newly-acquired Josh Beckett.

—–

Shane Victorino was scratched from Saturday’s game due to tightness in his back. Dylan Hernandez reports there may be some hip tightness as well, though the club only reported the back issue. Shane returned to the starting lineup on Sunday.

—–

Ted Lilly, rehabbing with the Rancho Cucamonga Quakes, felt “something … in his back or something”, according to Don Mattingly, and will have his next scheduled start skipped.

—–

Yasiel Puig, the Dodgers highly-paid Cuban import, was out of the lineup for a few games due to a bruised right heel, according to the Quakes official Twitter page. He returned to bang out four hits on Sunday though, so he should be fine.

—–

Matt Guerrier continues rehabbing in Rancho.

—–

Jerry Hairston Jr. is done for the season, as he’s scheduled to undergo surgery on his ailing left hip.

—–

Blake Hawksworth had arthroscopic shoulder surgery and is done for the year.

—–

Within the last two weeks, Chris Withrow, Chris Reed, Matt Wallach, and Angelo Ponte have all spent time on the 7-day DL, while Kazuya Takano was placed on the 60-day DL.

As I feared when Mark Ellis‘ injury was initially announced, the six week timetable was optimistic, as now he’s out at least two months.

The estimated recovery time of Dodgers second baseman Mark Ellis has been extended to two months after an MRI revealed a medial collateral ligament sprain of the left knee.

Ellis already has had emergency surgery to relieve swelling in the left leg, which was injured last Friday in a takeout slide by Cardinals infielder Tyler Greene. Dodgers trainer Sue Falsone said surgery is not currently considered for the ligament sprain.

Falson said Ellis also has an accompanying blister capsule sprain and a bone contusion on the outside of the knee.

“He’s not full weight bearing right now. He’s on crutches. So it just depends on how many days it takes for him to get to that full weight bearing,” she said. “There are a lot of factors here, and it’s not like this is a common, everyday baseball injury that we see all the time. These are best estimates we can give based on tissue healing times. But every person is different so we are going to see how it goes.”

Falsone stressed that because all of Ellis’ injuries are trauma related — and he has a long wound from the surgery — healing time is uncertain.

“Right now we are letting everything heal up and let him recover from the trauma and begin some basic weight bearing exercises and range of motion type of stuff and progress,” she said, adding that the healing of the wound and the knee sprain “both need healing time.”

So Ellis is out until at least August, but by reading the quotes, you find that the training staff doesn’t really have a reliable timetable for this, so it could easily be later than that.

Honestly? I’m looking at it like I just hope he’s 100% for 2013, and anything the Dodgers get out of him in 2012 is a bonus at this point.

—–

Justin Sellers was placed on the disabled list yesterday to make room for Jerry Hairston Jr.‘s return, but he should be back in 15 days.

Dodgers infielder Justin Sellers was placed on the 15-day disabled list Friday with a bulging disk he believes is the result of the highlight-reel catch he made diving into the stands at Dodger Stadium earlier this month.

Sellers has been playing in increasing pain and the injury was diagnosed through an MRI Thursday. Manager Don Mattingly said the club is optimistic that anti-inflammatory medication and strengthening exercises will have Sellers able to return in the minimum 15 days.

It depends on his recovery, but he hasn’t shown to be Rafael Furcal yet, so there’s no reason to expect the worse.

—–

With quick status updates, Matt Guerrier is out until at least the All-Star break and Juan Uribe is having his wrist examined for what seems like the millionth time.

Sue Falsone: Matt Guerrier not expected back until after All-Star break.

— Dylan Hernandez (@dylanohernandez) May 26, 2012

Juan Uribe will get his wrist examined tonight by #DrNealElAttrache.

— Dylan Hernandez (@dylanohernandez) May 26, 2012

Guerrier is a loss, but as long as Hairston is healthy, I don’t care much if Uribe comes back sooner or later.

While Matt Kemp figures to be ready by the end of the month, not much else is going right on the injury front.

Matt Guerrier has been shut down in his rehab attempt due to pain, and surgery is now an option.

Dodgers reliever Matt Guerrier, on the disabled list since April 19 with elbow tendinitis, has stalled in his rehabilitation and said the most likely course of action is to shut down completely until his pain is gone.

When a platelet-rich plasma injection failed to resolve his discomfort, Guerrier two weeks ago decided to try to pitch through it. But he was discouraged after a Wednesday bullpen session in which he said he pitched better than he felt.

“It’s not responding as well as I’d like after two bullpens,” said Guerrier. “It’s very frustrating, so up and down and back and forth. It feels good one day, the next day I can’t play catch. The turning point was a couple weeks ago, and I thought I could push through it.”

Guerrier said among the options are exploratory surgery (about which he said, “I don’t think any of us think that’s the case.”), another injection or complete rest.

“Rest is the more likely bet,” he said.

Well then, I guess it wasn’t a fabricated injury to solve a roster dilemma after all, huh?

Fortunately for the team, the bullpen is a strength and they can probably ride out the loss of Guerrier even though it would be far better to have him back.

In other reliever news, Blake Hawksworth might be returning sooner than later, as he finally seems to be on the road to recovery.

Injured Dodgers reliever Blake Hawksworth, who underwent two elbow operations earlier this year, will continue his comeback on Thursday when he makes his first appearance in an intrasquad game at the club’s Camelback Ranch-Glendale complex.

Hawksworth, who spent all of last year with the Dodgers, underwent what should have been relatively minor arthroscopic surgery on his right elbow on Jan. 11 to remove a bone spur and scar tissue. But a post-surgical infection developed that required a second cleansing procedure and powerful antibiotics, setting back his recovery.

At the rate players are dropping, there’s a chance the Dodgers will need him to contribute at some point this season.

—–

Unfortunately, now Justin Sellers is hurting and headed for an MRI.

Just when it looked like the Dodgers were getting healthy, infielder Justin Sellers scratched from Wednesday’s lineup with numbness in his right leg. He will have an MRI exam on Thursday.

Sellers, who was set to start at third base, was replaced in the lineup by Adam Kennedy.

Sellers said the injury could have occurred when he crashed into the stands making a highlight-reel catch of a Miguel Montero foul ball last week at Dodger Stadium.

“I know I played after that and I don’t know if it happened then and got worse. I don’t know,” said Sellers. “It could have happened that way, I don’t know for sure. I do know for sure I was beat up for a couple of days, so it definitely could have been from that.”

Sellers said he’s able to swing a bat, throw and run straight ahead. But when he reaches to make a backhand stop with his glove, “I feel a pinch and a tingle,” he said.

If he’s out for a while, the Dodgers might not have a choice but to turn to Aaron Miles.

You know what? I honestly prefer that option to have Adam Kennedy as a starter. Yikes.

Speaking of middle infielder injuries, even the Dodgers sound a bit pessimistic about Mark Ellis‘ status.

Injured Dodgers second baseman Mark Ellis isn’t out of the hospital yet, or out of the woods. He will be sidelined a minimum of six weeks, possibly longer.

It will take six weeks before Ellis can return just from the two operations on his injured left leg to relieve pressure from swelling.

Still unknown is the condition of Ellis’ left knee and ankle in the wake of being upended by St. Louis baserunner Tyler Greene on Friday night. The club suspects one of the joints, if not both, is injured.

Trainer Sue Falsone said Ellis winced when his leg was flexed, but his ankle and knee became secondary when the pressure increased in his leg at the point of contact near the upper left shin.

After undergoing an emergency fasciotomy to relieve the pressure, a procedure that likely saved his leg, Ellis had a long incision sewn closed on Tuesday. Manager Don Mattingly said Ellis is expected to remain hospitalized until Thursday. Ellis will initially be on crutches.

Sounds like six weeks is more like the minimum time required just to be able to get back on his feet again, much less recover and play at the level he was at previously. Additionally, it certainly sounds like they expect ligament damage in either or both the ankle and knee.

Disappointing, but hope for the best, I suppose.

Much to the relief of Dodgers fans everywhere, it was Mike MacDougal who was designed for assignment to make room for the returning Ronald Belisario.

ROSTER MOVE: The @Dodgers today designated RHP Mike MacDougal for assignment while MLB reinstated Ronald Belisario from the Restricted List.

— Los Angeles Dodgers (@Dodgers) May 3, 2012

It’s a relief because, as I discussed before, the bullpen was about to get crowded and moves were going to have to be made. The Dodgers could have gone the easy route, by demoting Josh Lindblom, but instead choose to keep their best pitchers around. Maybe a no-brainer in theory, but given the Dodgers history in practice, I was pleasantly surprised.

With that said, even Belisario’s future is in doubt when Matt Guerrier is ready to return. When Belisario last pitched in the MLB in 2010, he posted a 5.04 ERA, and he had a 7.71 ERA in the 4.1 innings he pitched in the minors this year. Granted, how well he’s throwing is more important than his performance at this juncture, but it’s not a stretch to say he could be the guy who goes for Guerrier in a couple of weeks.

Still though, even if that gets sorted, there’s the issue of whether Shawn Tolleson could help the club right now. Between three levels in 2011, he put up a 1.17 ERA with 105 strikeouts and 18 walks in 69 innings. In 2012, he has a 0.90 ERA at AA with 18 strikeouts and 3 walks. By all accounts, the scouting reports seem to hold up, and while he might not have closer stuff, he has 7th/8th inning guy written all over him, much like Lindblom did, which is more than I can say at this point for Jamey Wright and Todd Coffey.

Despite fan perception, the bullpen isn’t actually a problem area, as it’s been adequately middle of the road thus far. However, it can get better if the Dodgers want it to, and since they’ve shown a change in their process through keeping Lindblom around in favor of an ineffective veteran, I would hope they don’t show hesitation when it comes to Tolleson as well.

With yet another curiously timed injury to a bullpen arm, this time Matt Guerrier, the Dodgers have managed to avoid making a bullpen decision for at least 15 more days.

Dodgers reliever Matt Guerrier, signed in part to be the bullpen workhorse, was placed on the 15-day disabled list Tuesday because of right elbow flexor tendinitis.

Guerrier had an MRI, which revealed no issues with the ligament that leads to Tommy John surgery. He received a platelet-rich plasma injection, will rest for several days, then begin tossing.

The Dodgers called up left-hander Michael Antonini from Triple-A Albuquerque to replace Guerrier in the bullpen.

Michael Antonini was called up from AAA to replace Guerrier for a spell until Todd Coffey returns.

While this game can continue on for a bit, the Dodgers are going to have to cut somebody loose eventually. Especially with Ronald Belisario on the way back.

Troubled Dodgers reliever Ronald Belisario will start a Minor League rehab assignment next week and is eligible to return from a 25-game suspension for violating Major League Baseball’s drug policy on May 4.

Belisario, however, is out of options and the Dodgers must decide if he’s ready to help the club on that date. If not, they cannot send him to the Minor Leagues unless he clears waivers, but he could be taken by another club.

With both Belisario and Guerrier due to return, that leaves the team with Javy Guerra, Kenley Jansen, Guerrier, Scott Elbert, Belisario, Coffey, Mike MacDougal, Jamey Wright, and Josh Lindblom.

Out of that group, two guys have to go, because the Dodgers have a weak bench as it is, and carrying 13 pitchers is just asinine (if they do decide on that, I’ll be sure to have something to say about it).

One has to figure that Guerra, Jansen, Guerrier (big contract), Elbert (only lefty), and Belisario (otherwise why go through the headache?) are going to stick around. So that leaves Coffey, MacDougal, Wright, and Lindblom to battle it out for two spots. Unless Lindblom is struggling by then, he should be kept, which sets up tough decisions on two veteran relievers that were guaranteed contracts. And that situation doesn’t even account for Shawn Tolleson in AA, Josh Wall in AAA, and Michael Antonini in AAA. Much less the likes of Nate Eovaldi as a potential contributor and Rubby De La Rosa in a few months.

At some point, a significant decision is going to have to be made, so the Dodgers are only delaying the inevitable.

Whatever the case may be, I just hope the decision is made based on what’s best for the team and not because the GM decided that the best course of action was to go 12 to 14 deep in the bullpen and neglect depth (or starters) at three or four positions.

The popular discussion about this game will revolve around the blown call that ended it, but that kind of stuff will happen from time to time, just ask the Padres. For my interests, the real discussion should revolve around exactly what Don Mattingly was thinking late in the game.

—–

As it got down to the late innings of a tie game on the road, it wasn’t hard to see that Mattingly was going to save closer Javy Guerra for a save situation. Many of us speculated on that move well before it happened, and sure enough, Matt Guerrier entered the game in the ninth.

Now Guerrier has been excellent this season and Guerra has struggled lately, but overall, Guerra is the better reliever and he’s the team’s closer. Yet instead of making sure that, you know, the game actually continues, Guerra was saved for when the Dodgers took the lead, a lead that never came.

That was a managerial mistake, and Guerrier compounded it by making a mistake of his own with the walk of Jonathan Lucroy. The Brewers gave the Dodgers a gift by bunting into an out without advancing the runner, but the Dodgers gave it right back when Nyjer Morgan stole second and advanced to third on a throwing error by A.J. Ellis.

Now this is the point where I felt Mattingly’s decision making got really odd.

Mattingly proceeded to intentionally walk Rickie Weeks to put runners on first and third with one out. If you’re going to go that route, the next course of action is to:

1) Walk George Kottaras to load the bases and create a force play at home.
2) Play the corners in and at double play depth up the middle, and try to induce a grounder.

Instead, Mattingly brought in Jerry Hairston Jr. from the outfield to make five infielders and then proceeded to play all of them in, negating the point of walking Weeks to begin with. The fact that the walk was useless was further driven home when Weeks took second base on defensive indifference, thus showing that the Dodgers never cared about creating a force at second.

So if they had no intention of using the force play at second, why didn’t they walk Kottaras after they walked Weeks? Presumably because they didn’t want to face Ryan Braun with the bases loaded, but if that was indeed the case, why not pitch to Weeks since they weren’t banking on a force play being around to begin with?

1) Pitch to Weeks and pitch to Kottaras.
2) Walk Weeks, play the corners in and the middle at double play depth, and try to induce Kottaras into hitting a grounder.
3) Walk Weeks, walk Kottaras, and face Braun.

I prefer going with option one or option two over option three by a lot, but all seem to make some semblance of logical sense. Instead, Mattingly went with option four, which involved still having to face both Kottaras and Braun, both with no force play in tact if Guerrier did his job, meaning they actively choose to face one of the best hitters in the National League and gave the Brewers two chances to win it.

With option one, you potentially miss having to pitch to Braun. With options two and three (especially two), there’s a chance you can get out of it with one pitch. Yet, Mattingly seems to have chosen the scenario that both gives the opposing team the most attempts at driving in the runner from third and results in having to face the best hitter on the Brewers.

Swell.

Granted, most of this discussion was negated when Guerrier unintentionally walked Kottaras, but it still revealed a lot of what Mattingly was or wasn’t thinking.

It’s just so … what?

Ugh.

—–

As far as the last play of the game, he was out, as Mike Petriello‘s GIF shows.

I initially thought Ellis completely whiffed on the tag, but having now seen it slowed down, I see where the glove bends back as he makes contact with Morgan.

Terrible setup and throw by Matt Kemp, by the way.

—–

What is Adam Kennedy on the team for?

I feel no more confident with him up at the plate as opposed to a pitcher, and quite frankly, he’s done nothing in recent years to prove he’s a significant improvement.

—–

Let’s not lose sight of the fact that Guerrier was signed for three years by Colletti and is the 4th best reliever to 3 guys making $500k.

— Chad Moriyama (@ChadMoriyama) April 19, 2012

How did I feel about Don Mattingly‘s decision making in the bottom of the fifth against the Padres yesterday?

Great decision by Mattingly, fuck stupid statistics like pitcher wins.

— Chad Moriyama (@ChadMoriyama) April 8, 2012

Wait, he brought in Wright.

— Chad Moriyama (@ChadMoriyama) April 8, 2012

Yeah, that basically sums up my thoughts on Mattingly’s managerial skills in yesterday’s game. Good idea, bad execution.

Up five runs to none in the bottom of the fifth inning, starter Chris Capuano was struggling mightily with his control. After getting a strikeout to begin the frame, he gave up a single, a walk, got a force out, and then walked the next two batters.

Now most managers would let their starter try to get the last out of the fifth inning in this scenario because of the vaunted pitcher win, but it’s an inherently stupid thing to let influence decision making since it’s a meaningless statistic, especially when the game is on the line.

As such, Mattingly made the right call by pulling Capuano, who had been iffy with his control all day (even by his own admission in the post-game interview), but negated that decision by bringing in Jamey Wright, who was essentially the last man to make an eight-man bullpen out of Spring Training.

If Jansen or Coffey or something do that, I can live with it. Wright is going to be in like independent league in 15 days.

— Chad Moriyama (@ChadMoriyama) April 8, 2012

That one out is the highest leverage situation of the game (or will lead to it) because it either keeps the game at a four-run lead or it starts a chain reaction that implodes the game for the Dodgers. As such, it’s a perfect opportunity to use Kenley Jansen, probably the best reliever in the pen, But even if that’s too unconventional, why not veterans like Todd Coffey or Matt Guerrier? That’s what the Dodgers are paying them for, isn’t it?

The decision was half right, but half right is still wrong.

—–

In transaction news, Carlos Monasterios was released by the team yesterday.

The Dodgers have released right-hander Carlos Monasterios, who pitched in 32 games for them in 2010 but has since required two elbow operations.

Monasterios, 26, was a Rule 5 Draft pick who went 3-5 with a 4.38 ERA in 2010, when he started 13 games and spent the entire season in the Major Leagues. But after making one start at Triple-A last year, he required Tommy John elbow reconstruction and missed the rest of the season.

He encountered further arm problems after reporting to Spring Training this year and at the end of March underwent surgery to relocate the ulna nerve.

He looked to be solid front-end bullpen guy, long man, and spot starter, but injuries really derailed a potentially decent career.

Kenley Jansen

Kenley Jansen is the epitome of an under-appreciated fireman in the pen, putting out any fire, no matter the size, intensity, or probability for continuation.

Pitching full-time for just about three years, the 24-year-old fireballer fanned an out-of-this-world 16.10 batters per nine innings last season. Yes, he walked a few too many (4.36), but he has plenty of time to improve his control, especially since he’s still learning  to be a pitcher.

A 1.74 FIP, 2.06 tERA, 1.59 SIERA, and 1.04 WHIP are just nails, and Kenley handled both righties and lefties with ease (.156/.264/.200/.464 and .163/.269/.194/.463, respectively). His year was even more impressive when you consider two things: he had three atrocious outings that skewed already amazing numbers, and he battled injury and a heart murmur (which reoccurred this Spring but doesn’t appear to be serious).

—–

Kenley should always be used in the most pressing situation, not in your conventional ninth inning, three-run-lead save situation. Bring him in to face the heart of the opponent’s lineup with the game close regardless of whether it’s the seventh or eighth or ninth. That’s what firemen do: they put out the most dangerous fires.

Oh, and just for kicks, let’s quickly look at his July and September from last year:

July – 10 IP, 6 Baserunners, 17 K/4 BB, 0 HR

September – 13.2 IP, 11 Baserunners, 32 K/3 BB, 0 HR

Just sick.

Javy Guerra

Javy Guerra entered 2011 as just another arm in the Dodgers pool of pitchers. He closed out the campaign as the closer, and with many fans perceiving him to be a better pitcher than he actually is. Guerra is good, but not great, and he’s the closer by virtue of everybody else before him in 2011 being hurt and/or terrible.

Guerra’s minor league career was solid, with a lot of strikeouts and a lot of walks. He debuted in May, and proceeded to put up a two-month period featuring a shiny ERA and weak peripherals (2.35 in 15.1 innings, with 9 K, 5 BB, and 22 baserunners allowed). Oddly enough, he posted a .327 BABIP against during this time.

The next three months don’t do much to tell us how dominant Guerra could ever be, as he allowed 36 baserunners in 31.1 innings. He walked 13, allowed two homers, and fanned 29 in this time frame. Again, not atrocious numbers, but nothing to get overly excited about, especially considering his BABIP in this period was .232 against.

—–

Guerra, at just 26 years old, is definitely a guy I’d like to have in the pen. He has upside, is cheap, and has shown the ability in the minors, and for stretches of time in the bigs, to miss bats. In fact, I want a guy like him to be the closer while the better pitcher – Jansen – is placed in higher leverage situations and asked to get the opponent’s better offensive players out

I just don’t want Guerra, based off of the outdated Saves statistic, to get more credit than Kenley. I’m a simple man with simple desires.

Scott Elbert

Heading into 2011 with the reputation as an injury-prone, command lacking, questionable makeup having potential bust, Scott Elbert ended the year by cementing himself as a fixture in the Dodgers remade pen. Taking over the left-handed reliever role from the also injury-riddled Hong Chih Kuo, Elbert fanned 9.18 per nine innings while issuing 3.78 BB/9 IP, an improvement on his small sample size MLB career and lengthier minor league tenure.

Elbert has always had great stuff and posted big strikeout numbers in the minors, but could never get a footing in The Show. He was only given 26.1 innings in his previous three stints with the big league club to impress in, and certainly didn’t, but the potential was always there if he could harness his stuff and stay healthy.

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With that great promise coming to fruition in ’11, and room to still grow and improve, Scott will be expected to shut down lefties, who only hit a putrid .191/.267/.227/.494 against him last year. Elbert can certainly hold his own against righties (.255/.344/.328/.672 in 2011), but like most southpaws, he’s much, much better against his hitting brethren. Elbert will probably be the only lefty in the pen to start 2012, and with upside and talent, his future in Los Angeles is finally clear.

Ned Colletti’s Motley Crew Of Veteran Goodness

Mike MacDougal is back on a guaranteed (!) one-year deal following a shiny ERA, terrible everything else season. In 57 innings that had other teams frothing at the mouth, Mike whiffed just 6.47 per nine while issuing 4.58 free passes each nine he took the mound.

But hey, he had a 2.02 ERA and was an experienced vet. That totally makes up for the 4.33 tERA, inability to miss bats, and the taking up of a roster spot that would be better served on Josh Lindblom.

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Matt Guerrier … exists. 6.78 K/9, 3.39 BB/9, 3.43 FIP, and all.

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Todd Coffey received a guaranteed one-year deal, and coming off of a 3.41 FIP season, he could actually be useful if used against righties only. Coffey was death to right-handers in 2011, allowing just a .193/.250/.255/.505 slash line against while whiffing three times as many as he walked. Of course, conversely, lefties murdered him, mashing to the tune of a .338/.404/.416/.820 line, and they drew nine walks while only going down swinging 11 times.

So yeah. Use him against righties, and never let him try to sprint his guts out to face Carlos Gonzalez or Lance Berkman or even Juan Pierre‘s limp bat, for that matter.

All of that said, would I have signed Coffey? No. But I’m not Ned Colletti.

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Ronald Belisario is back! After he serves a suspension for a drug-related incident, that is. He’ll almost never be able to replicate his BABIP-fueled 2009 where he fanned over 8.0/9 IP, but hey, another bullpen arm could never hurt.

Granted, he’s out of options, so when he does return, someone has to go, and anyone not named MacDougal should not be replaced by Belisario. Heck, not even Coffey, who’s been pretty decent against righties for a long time.

But seriously. Get rid of MacDougal.

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Blake Hawksworth, once he returns from injury, must be on the 25-man roster.

Why? Because his sister is Erin Hawksworth.

Enough said.

The bad news first, as an MRI on the oblique of Ivan De Jesus revealed a tear.

Dodgers infielder Ivan DeJesus got some bad news this morning, as an MRI revealed a tear of his left oblique, hurt during a swing in the bottom of the seventh inning on Saturday night against the Giants. Manager Don Mattingly said there was no timetable for the return of the infielder.

As I said before, him not making the team isn’t a big deal, but him being out for a significant amount of time with a lingering, slow healing injury after he just made his recovery from a catastrophic injury really sucks for him personally and dampens his chances of becoming a utility guy in the future.

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The good news is that Matt Guerrier looks to be fine.

Matt Guerrier threw a bullpen session this morning for the first time in over a week, after missing time with back tightness. Up next for the reliever will likely be facing live hitters in a minor league game on Friday.

I know the Dodgers are paying him a lot of money, but I’m not sure how convinced I am that he is markedly better than some of the hard-throwing prospects the Dodgers have waiting at this point.

The Dodgers won’t know for certain the extent of Ivan De Jesus’ oblique injury until an MRI is taken Monday, but manager Don Mattingly conceded any playing time missed greatly hampers an already-longshot bid for an Opening Day roster spot.

“It’s hard to compete when you can’t be out there,” said Mattingly. “With this type of injury, there’s not a lot you can do. If you lose eight to 10 days, how many days does it take just to get your timing back? Not a good time to get hurt. You could see it on his face last night. These guys know it hurts your chance.”

Hopefully it’s just a mild strain, but they don’t sound that optimistic.

In better news, Matt Guerrier sounds like he might be ready to go by the start of the season.

Mattingly had better news on reliever Matt Guerrier, who has been out a week with lower back pain. He said the right-hander has continued to improve and plans to throw off a mound Monday. If that goes well, he could face hitters in a simulated game Wednesday and might be game-ready by next weekend.

I’m starting to wonder if it might be better just to put him on the disabled list to start the season and take it slow.

The bullpen is very deep this year, so he would just be a middle reliever with this group anyway. Plus, the team would get extra time to evaluate a camp arm in actual games.

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Eight more players were cut from the Dodgers today, seven of whom were reassigned and one who was released.

The Dodgers made their second round of player cuts on Sunday, moving four pitchers and four position players out of the Major League clubhouse.

Left-handed pitcher Alberto Castillo was released. Reassigned to Minor League camp were these non-roster invitees: pitchers Ryan Tucker, Matt Chico and Will Savage; catchers Gorman Erickson and Matt Wallach; and infielders Lance Zawadzki and Jeff Baisley.

I actually wanted to see more of Gorman Erickson, but as with the last time, no real surprises.

Ken Gurnick of MLB.com reports that Ned Colletti is still looking for a starter, reliever, and utility infielder.

All that’s left on his frugal shopping list is an affordable replacement in the starting rotation for Hiroki Kuroda, a utility infielder like Jerry Hairston Jr. and a veteran, versatile, durable reliever.

I already took a look at the potential starters and utility infielders, but I had not heard of this desire for a reliever.

The problem isn’t shoring up the bullpen, the problem is that it’s Ned Colletti and it’s Ned Colletti looking for a veteran.

As you can see here, the list of available relievers within the Dodgers price range and Colletti’s requirements isn’t exactly teeming with talent, so it’s easy to think that the Dodgers are going to get more near replacement level roster filler than anything significant.

While I suppose you could look at that as a bad thing, I see it as the payroll restrictions saving the Dodgers from Colletti giving yet another veteran the Matt Guerrier treatment.

Kenley Jansen

Relief pitchers are a fungible group, as many non-traditional sports analysts around the web have pointed out time and time again. Overpaying for them, particularly veteran arms, rarely works out. Constructing a pen on the cheap is the preferred way to go, especially when you have proven as an organization to be able to develop young arms year after year.

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Kenley Jansen burst onto the season in mid-2010 with a bang, displaying an amazing ability to miss bats and wowing fans as the former catcher registered in the high 90s consistently and touched triple digits on occasion. He cemented a place for himself in the pen for 2011, and looked to be one half of the eighth inning set-up tandem as the season begin. With injuries and ineffectiveness all around him, Jansen had the opportunity to take on a larger role, but unfortunately the young flamethrower ran into ailments of his own which shelved him on two separate occasions (right shoulder inflammation, irregular heartbeat) and saw him take a trip back to AA Chattanooga as well.

Outside of a few rocky appearances prior to that first disabled list stint, Jansen had a monumentally phenomenal season. He set the major league record for strikeouts per nine innings with a 16.1 mark while putting up a 2.06 tERA, 1.74 FIP, and 1.59 SIERA in 53 and two-thirds innings. His walks were still plentiful (4.36 per nine), but he showed remarkable improvement in that area, walking 20 in 30.2 IP prior to the All-Star Break and just six in 23 innings post-ASB.

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Jansen was actually utilized in the best possible way by Don Mattingly this past season, much to the delight of those non-traditional analysts previously mentioned: he’s the fireman of the group. He’s brought in when the situation is the most demanding and requires the best reliever, as opposed to when there’s a save situation. And that’s the way it should be.

Jansen misses the most bats out of anyone on the Dodgers, and also induces infield popups at a double digit rate (10.9% in 2011, 16% in 2010). His September was absolutely filthy, as he fanned 32 in just just under 14 innings while walking three. He finished with a WAR of 1.5, triple the man who will be reviewed next.

Jansen possesses by far the most game-changing arm out of anyone in the pen, and should be used when you absolutely need to shut down the other team. That might be the seventh, it might be the eighth, and it could perhaps be the ninth. Pigeonholing him into a certain role would be detrimental to the team, and if Don Mattingly wants to continue to be better than his predecessor, he’ll bring in Kenley to put out fires (and he’ll bunt less, but that’s an entirely different conversation for an entirely different post and day).

Javy Guerra

Javy Guerra made his major league debut in May, and received much fanfare after closing out a few games and racking up a few pretty saves. And by pretty, I mean people liked seeing the “S” by his name; the outings themselves were not always something to cherish. After a couple of months, Guerra sat with a pair of saves and a win, but his peripherals showed that he was fortunate to have those counting stats: a 9:5 K:BB mark and a .344 opponents’ OBP showed that Guerra was not overpowering teams and certainly had not cemented himself as the team’s premier shutdown reliever.

July proved to be a turning point, as Javy had his best month as a big leaguer, fanning nine in nine innings against two walks and eleven baserunners. A solid September followed before Guerra was roughed up in October, allowing his first two major league home runs and issuing eight free passes against ten strikeouts. Overall, Guerra’s rookie campaign was a fairly solid one for a pitcher who had never thrown above AA previously and came in with fairly limited expectations, as he posted a 3.59 tERA, a 3.30 FIP, and a 3.69 SIERA while striking out 7.33 and walking 3.47 per nine.

He’ll clearly need to either fan more or walk less, and BABIP was in his favor in 2011 (2.61), but for the small amount he’ll make heading into 2012, Guerra stands to be a solid contributor if he can tighten up the rough edges to his game.

Matt Guerrier

Matt Guerrier was one of Ned Colletti’s big off-season signings, coming to LA for three years and $12 million dollars. A highly, highly overrated reliever coming out of Minnesota, Guerrier had a solid season. Appearing in at least 70 games for the fifth straight season and pitching 66 and a third innings, Matt posted a 3.43 FIP and had a strikeout to walk ratio of two to one. He fanned under seven per nine and had a 1.27 WHIP as your run-of-the-mill middle reliever.

Veteran relievers being signed to long-term, big money deals rarely work out, and at 33-years-old, there’s nowhere to go but down at this point. Guerrier has a place in a bullpen, but not for the money Colletti valued him at. Hopefully he can be decent enough to be flipped this season to a team in need of an arm, as the Dodgers are beyond stacked with young arms waiting in the wings.

Jonathan Broxton

Jonathan Broxton was the real wild card, as his first half of 2010 was phenomenal, but his second half saw both struggles and a clear dip in velocity. The dip in velocity was evident yet again, as he clocked in around 90-93 as opposed to his usual 97-99.

The wear from Joe Torre‘s over-usage during the Yankees series the previous season was beyond apparent, as Big Jon’s numbers dipped across the board. He struck out under eight per nine after never having been in single digits in his previous big league seasons, and he posted an uncharacteristically horrid tERA of 7.34, FIP of 5.63, and 4.75 SIERA. His WHIP ballooned to 1.89 before succumbing to an elbow bruise and bone spur in his pitching elbow.

As if more proof were needed that it was Torre’s mismanagement that felled Broxton, Jonathan was back up in the high-90s in a handful of minor league rehab appearances after rest, but ultimately he could not get healthy and was shut down for the season.

A free agent heading into 2012, I am fully supportive of bringing him back if he can prove to be healthy. That would entail a minor league deal in all likelihood, though I would not be surprised to see some team take a shot on him with a guaranteed contract based on his past track record of dominance and excellence.

Hong-Chih Kuo

Hong-Chih Kuo, coming off a superb 2010 (1.81 FIP, 2.2 WAR, 10.95 K/9), dealt with both arm injuries and anxiety in 2011. He only threw 27 innings and saw his control vanish as his walk rate jumped to 7.67 per nine and he allowed more long balls than in the previous two seasons (and 90 innings) combined. His FIP was 5.06, and he couldn’t be counted on from jump street. Always an injury risk, 2011 proved to be the polar opposite of 2010, as everything that could go wrong for him did.

With the recent news that Kuo will undergo elbow surgery yet again, his Dodger career looks to be over not just for the foreseeable future, but perhaps for good, as he may never be able to pitch again.

Us fans will always have his utter dominance and the epic bat flip to remember him by though, which is more than most players can say. Hopefully Hong-Chih can attempt a comeback if he so chooses, but if this indeed is the end, perhaps the best way to sum up Kuo is that he was an elite talent who was never granted the chance by the baseball and elbow gods to fully live up to that enormous potential.

During the 2010-2011 off-season, the Dodgers aimed to improve on what was an effective unit in 2010 (3.80 FIP/8th In MLB). With all their veteran relievers making their Los Angeles exit, the rest of the potential returning cast consisted primarily of pre-arbitration players making the major league minimum, with only Jonathan Broxton locked into a high paying salary for 2011. The predominantly untested nature of the bullpen didn’t sit well with the Dodgers, so they went out and re-signed Vicente Padilla as a reliever, avoided arbitration with Hong Chih Kuo, traded for Blake Hawksworth, gave Mike MacDougal and Lance Cormier minor league contracts, and made a long term commitment to Matt Guerrier.

While handing out millions to seemingly solid and steady veteran relievers is rarely going to play poorly in the media or among fans, they often prove to be unnecessary and costly additions to the roster. Now the Dodgers bullpen in 2011 has been quite effective as a whole, ranking 8th in the MLB in FIP at 3.58, but were the expensive veteran members all that important to the 2011 unit’s success?

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*50% fWAR (FIP) & 50% rWAR (ERA)
*5,000,000 Dollars Per Win
*Salary Data From True Blue LA
*SV=Surplus Value

Guerra, Jansen, Elbert, Lindblom, and Troncoso are all pre-arbitration farm system arms who have combined for $11,134,000 in SV. MacDougal was given a minor league contract with a mere $500,000 major league option and netted the Dodgers $2,750,000 in SV. Hawksworth, despite his -$676,000 total, was acquired in a trade that rid the Dodgers of Ryan Theriot, who is currently putting up a 0.1 WAR at a $3,300,000 salary for a -$2,800,000 SV, so feel free to credit Hawksworth with that.

Guerrier was the big money free agent signing, and he was actually decently productive in 2011. Unfortunately, the only reason he clocks in at positive value is because of the deferred nature of his overall contract (4 Y/12 M), so he’ll have to get better in a hurry if he wants to continue breaking even. The more likely scenario is that it ends up being a neutral to poor overall transaction.

The four pitchers who rank the lowest happen to include three of the top bullpen salaries, with Broxton, Kuo, and Padilla combining for -$17,725,000 in SV. Also clocking in at the bottom of the pile is Cormier (-$4,050,000 SV), who inexplicably made $800,000 in the majors and was inexplicably allowed to pitch 13.2 innings before the Dodgers realized how terrible he was.

Overall, it’s quite clear where the value lies in the Dodgers pen, as the data demonstrates that the most productive and most valuable members of the 2011 bullpen have been the farm system arms, and more specifically, those making 500k and below, basically around the major league minimum.

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While the status quo maintains that locking down relievers with track records of success to million dollar deals will lead to overall bullpen stability, it would do the Dodgers and their fans well going forward to remember that money spent hardly guarantees productivity and success, especially with a commodity as volatile as bullpen arms.

Over the course of the 2011 season, the Dodgers relief corps has proved that bullpen arms are indeed a fickle and fungible group, with production to be found from a multitude of sources, and that the most value out of the pen is commonly derived from those making the least. Sticking with cheap team controlled building blocks in the bullpen can be highly effective, and the money used to sign costly relievers can frequently be better used elsewhere.

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Published @ True Blue LA as well.