Jon Heyman of CBS Sports reports that the Dodgers rejected a deal of Ryan Dempster for Allen Webster.

The Cubs offered to send Ryan Dempster to his preferred Dodgers straight up for solid right-handed pitching prospect Allen Webster, but the Dodgers have rejected the offer.

The issue seems to be this: The Dodgers don’t appear to love Dempster quite as much as he loves them.

According to people briefed on the talks, the Dodgers have thus far offered a couple of lesser prospects, guys who may project as relievers.

Could it be that the Dodgers offered some combination of Josh Lindblom, Shawn Tolleson, Josh Wall, and Chris Withrow?

#Dodgers and #Cubs discussing a Ryan Dempster-for-Josh Lindblom deal, source says.

— Jerry Crasnick (@jcrasnick) July 28, 2012

Seems likely that the offered deal from the Dodgers side would include both Withrow and Lindblom because the Cubs were previously rumored to have shown interest in Withrow.

In related trade news, Danny Knobler of CBS Sports reports that the trade might be expanded to include Bryan LaHair or Alfonso Soriano.

The Dodgers and Cubs, stalled on what the Dodgers would give up in a trade for Ryan Dempster, have had some discussions on expanding the deal to also include Alfonso Soriano or Bryan LaHair, sources say.

The inclusion of Soriano or LaHair is still viewed as a longshot, perhaps even a “massive longshot,” as one person briefed on the discussions described it.

I’m guessing that an expanded deal would include haggling over either money (Soriano) or prospects (LaHair). Plus, it would probably include Webster or Garrett Gould in addition to a reliever or two.

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If the Dodgers can’t get Dempster, their attention may turn towards James Shields or Josh Johnson, according to Heyman.

With the Dodgers and Cubs seemingly at an impasse in Ryan Dempster talks, the Dodgers are looking at Josh Johnson and James Shields as rotation alternatives.

Johnson won’t come cheap though.

The Marlins seek a Mark Teixeira-like package for Josh Johnson, Jon Heyman reported yesterday. In other words, Miami seeks at least three good young pieces for the right-hander. The Blue Jays are pursuing Johnson and the Rangers, Angels and Orioles also appear to have interest.

Not sure it matters at that price, because the Dodgers don’t have the horses in the system to make the trade feasible.

Matt Garza of the Cubs was once considered an option, but it doesn’t look like he’ll be dealt anymore.

Matt Garza won’t start before Tuesday’s non-waiver trade deadline, so the chances of a midseason deal involving the right-hander are remote, Bruce Levine of ESPNChicago.com reports (on Twitter). Jim Bowden of ESPN.com and MLB Network Radio notes that Garza might not be traded until the offseason (on Twitter).

An MRI revealed a slight fluid buildup in Garza’s triceps area, manager Dale Sveum told reporters, including Doug Padilla of ESPNChicago.com. The Dodgers and Red Sox are among the teams with reported interest in Garza.

Only reason I worry about this is because it seems more and more like the Dodgers only rotation option is Dempster, which lessens their leverage in a deal.

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Bats are a priority for the Dodgers as well, but are more rumor than substance at this point.

The Dodgers have talked about quite a few other hitters, including both Justin Morneau and Josh Willingham of the Twins. The Twins have said it’s a longshot that they trade Willingham, however.

Phillies still listening on Victorino. Reds, Dodgers, Pirates & Giants among teams interested. But no indication they’re ready to deal him

Justin Morneau is the most intriguing target to me, specifically because he’s making $14 million this year and $14 million next year. His line of .256/.318/.448/.766 is far from impressive, and there are injury concerns, but he does have upside. Plus, the amount of money he’s making is not likely something the Twins want to deal with, so he might not be as expensive in terms of prospects.

GM Ned Colletti says the Dodgers are far from done after landing Hanley Ramirez, as they still want a starter and a bat.

The Dodgers landed the middle-of-the-order bat they’ve been looking for in Hanley Ramirez, but general manager Ned Colletti on Wednesday said he’s still looking for a starting pitcher and another hitter.

“We’re still hunting for starting pitching. We won’t let this deal stand in the way of that,” said the general manager, who dealt starting pitcher Nathan Eovaldi and Minor League pitcher Scott McGough to the Marlins for Ramirez and left-handed reliever Randy Choate.

Completely makes sense, but who? Hence the mess of rumors to follow.

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Ryan Dempster Dumpster Fire Of Rumors

Yesterday, it was widely reported that the Dodgers were the front-runners for Ryan Dempster and that the team was confident they could land him.

A trade between the Dodgers and Cubs still seems “realistic,” Jon Paul Morosi of FOX Sports tweets.

The Dodgers have the upper hand in talks with the Cubs, Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com tweets.

The Dodgers are feeling increasingly confident that they can work out a deal for Dempster, ESPN.com’s Buster Olney tweets. The Cubs don’t have many alternatives given Dempster’s interest in playing for L.A. and his no-trade protection.

Today, it has been more of the same.

The Dodgers and Cubs continue talking and “might” be getting closer to a deal involving Dempster, Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports tweets.

Rival executives say the Dodgers are projecting an air of optimism about their chances of obtaining Dempster, ESPN.com’s Jayson Stark reports (on Twitter).

There seems to be a consensus on his destination, which makes sense since he’s all but said it’s the only place he’ll go at this point.

I had no problem with acquiring Dempster, because I figured he would be the upgrade that would come the cheapest for the team. That is, until I saw this tweeted:

Source: #Cubs have asked #Dodgers for Allen Webster as primary piece in Ryan Dempster talks.

— Jon Morosi (@jonmorosi) July 25, 2012

Uh … yeah … no thanks.

I thought the price was supposed to go down as they lose leverage, not up.

Allen Webster is a more advanced version of Garrett Gould with better velocity.

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Danny Knobler of CBS Sports reports that the availability of James Shields has drawn interest.

The Angels aren’t the only team in pursuit of James Shields. The Rangers and Dodgers have also made the Rays trade offers for the right-hander, Danny Knobler of CBSSports.com reports.

Jon Paul Morosi of Fox Sports says the Dodgers have alternatives to Dempster in … uh … vastly superior pitchers.

The Dodgers have Zack Greinke and Josh Johnson on their list in case they don’t trade for Dempster, Jon Paul Morosi of FOX Sports tweets.

Odd but okay.

Jayson Stark of ESPN reports that the Dodgers are in on basically every starting pitcher on the market.

The Dodgers are in on a number of starting pitchers, including Nolasco, Blanton, Kevin Millwood, and Jason Vargas in addition to Ryan Dempster and Matt Garza. They’ve also checked in on outfield and first base help, including Victorino and Justin Morneau.

The team is also looking at outfield and first base, which wouldn’t surprise Ken Rosenthal.

Source: #Dodgers deal for Victorino or Pence possible even if team gets Dempster along with H. Ramirez. LA has been in talks with #Phillies.

— Ken Rosenthal (@Ken_Rosenthal) July 25, 2012

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In terms of pitching, I’m sort of at the point now where if the Dodgers don’t swing a trade for an elite arm, I’d rather they just do nothing. If Dempster is seriously going to command at least a top five prospect in the system, why bother? With Ted Lilly on his way back, the team has five starters, and John Ely, Stephen Fife, and Webster wait in the minors.

As far as the bats go, I’ve already explained why I’d rather the team not acquire Shane Victorino, and Justin Morneau‘s 0.0 WAR line of .253/.314/.437/.751 doesn’t impress me. The only name that’s intriguing is Hunter Pence. His .267/.334/.447/.781 line isn’t impressive, but he’s a ~3 WAR player that would represent a meaningful upgrade.

According to Ken Rosenthal and Jon Paul Morosi of Fox Sports, the Dodgers have traded Nate Eovaldi and Scott McGough to the Marlins for Hanley Ramirez and Randy Choate.

BLOCKBUSTER: Hanley Ramirez & Randy Choate to #Dodgers, Nathan Eovaldi & Scott McGough to #Marlins, sources tell @Ken_Rosenthal and me.

— Jon Morosi (@jonmorosi) July 25, 2012

I’ll have complete analysis (with all the nerdy stuff) in the morning, but for now, my gut reaction is that it makes sense for both teams.

Regardless of what position he ends up playing, Hanley figures to be a gigantic improvement over the unholy combination of Juan Uribe, Dee Gordon, Adam Kennedy, Elian Herrera, and Luis Cruz. The production the Dodgers are getting from both 3B and SS is just terrible, and it’s not like they were playing quality defense either, so Hanley’s questionable glove shouldn’t burn the team too often.

While I am admittedly excited by the gigantic upside of this deal if Hanley figures it out again, it’s not without risk. After all, there’s a reason the Marlins let him walk with 2 1/2 years of team control remaining.

First of all, Hanley is signed through 2014 and is still owed $31 million over the next two years, including whatever he’s still owed in 2012. Additionally, his batting line has been woeful (by his standards) since 2010, clocking in at .245/.328/.405/.732. Plus, as I mentioned, he’s not a good defender, regardless of where he plays, and there are very real concerns about his motivation and happiness. Normally I would dismiss this as media inflated crap due to him under-performing, but then I consider that his hand got infected because he forgot to take his antibiotics, and you start to wonder.

Choate, the other half of this deal on the Marlins side, also makes sense for the Dodgers. Lefties are batting .150/.200/.183/.383 (yes, really) off him in 2012, and while there’s nothing wrong with Scott Elbert, he’s actually effective against righties much more than lefties in 2012.

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For the Marlins, Eovaldi should be a solid rotation contributor, though I think his upside still lies as a #3 because his off-speed stuff lags behind his fastball. From the Dodgers perspective though, they have a ton of arms in the system, and with both Rubby De La Rosa and Ted Lilly due back soon, plus a potential trade for Ryan Dempster/Matt Garza, Nate was an understandably expendable piece. It wouldn’t shock me if the Dodgers lose this trade in terms of surplus value in the end, but I think the deal makes sense, regardless.

Who is McGough though, right? I wrote about him back in February and nothing much has changed yet. I still think he can be a MLB contributor in the bullpen, but he’s not going to be an elite guy and the Dodgers have a ton of arms, so his inclusion isn’t all that important to me.

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Overall, I feel the deal makes sense for both sides. The two teams want to go in different directions, and with the free agent market dwindling for the Dodgers, they could afford to absorb salary in exchange for upgrades/upside beyond 2012, and they did exactly that. Meanwhile, the Marlins cleared a contract and a headache off their slate and got solid cost-controlled pieces in return, at least one of which can contribute to the team immediately.

According to Ken Rosenthal of Fox Sports, the Dodgers are now “very unlikely” to land Ryan Dempster, but it seems like the team is still in on the chase.

The Dodgers are “very unlikely” to trade for Dempster according to Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports (on Twitter). They prefer not to trade prospects for a rental, making Matt Garza a more logical target.

Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com reports that the Dempster sweepstakes is currently down to the Braves, Nationals, and Cardinals.

So what now?

Well the Dodgers have reportedly moved on to Dempster’s teammate on the Cubs, Matt Garza.

The Dodgers don’t want to surrender prospects for a rental and are “very unlikely” to acquire Ryan Dempster, but Bruce Levine of ESPN Chicago reports that they have shifted their focus to Matt Garza. Los Angeles had a deal on the table to acquire Dempster yesterday but it was not consummated.

Why the shift?

One possibility is that the overwhelming interest in Dempster has changed his price and the Dodgers don’t want to go further than what they have already put on the table. However, part of me wonders if this was influenced by the team’s recent struggles and Cole Hamels appearing to be close to agreeing to an extension. In other words, the Dodgers seem intent on getting a rotation contributor beyond 2012 now, perhaps because their plan was to get Dempster at a cheaper rate than Garza and then sign Hamels in the off-season. However, if that scenario is no longer on the table, it raises questions about both how they would improve the rotation in 2012 and how they would add a quality arm for 2013 and beyond.

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Of course, it could just be because Garza is the more valuable asset on the table. Despite their ERA difference (which doesn’t measure pitcher worth, IMO), Dempster isn’t actually a superior pitcher, generally speaking.

Dempster is suppressing his HR rate at close to career best numbers, while Garza’s HR rate is by far his career high.

While FIP is a wonderful tool for determining what actually happened within the pitcher’s control, xFIP and SIERA are better tools for projecting future performance, as they normalize HR rate. So assuming these 100 innings or so don’t represent some type of skill change in the two pitchers, it’s not out of line to say Garza is the better bet going forward.

Garza is a 2.5-3.5 WAR pitcher, plus an extra year of team control in 2013, putting him around 4.5 WAR of value. Dempster is around the same skill level, but without the extra year of control, so he’s worth about 1.0-1.5 WAR. The preference change makes sense in terms of asset value for every team, but in the Dodgers situation it may make more sense than for most. Like any other trade though, it depends on the eventual price on the Dodgers end.