So … about that Yasiel Puig hype … yeah, it’s not gonna die down anytime soon, as he just hit a grand slam to give the Dodgers a five-run cushion heading into the ninth inning.

Clayton Kershaw, thoughts?

Basically.

Hyun Jin Ryu loves swimming with him.

And Luis Cruz gives him a public shower for his efforts.

So yeah, along with this fail throw, that GIF above about sums up Ted Lilly‘s night for the Dodgers…

…but those GIFS (and the ones with Yasiel Puig) sum up the overall evening for the team.

By far the best part? Even though Carlos Quentin did homer, here’s how the game ended:

Carlos Quentin losing his temper?

Well I’ll be.

*Click To Enlarge*

I figured that after last night’s ending, it might be a while until Yasiel Puig generates more magic for the team. After all, he’s still just a 22 years old with close to zero experience. However, he decided that he was having none of that and furthered his legend by hitting two bombs and a double.

Thoughts, dugout?

*Click To Enlarge*

*Click To Enlarge*

Yeah, that about sums it up. The mix of Clayton Kershaw‘s disbelief and Skip Schumaker‘s bemusement and confusion is about right.

Not only has Puig contributed immediately, but he’s taken the team’s celebrations to the next level as well.

Of course, he wasn’t flawless on the day…

…so he obviously needs to be sent back down to work on all that, right guys?

Guys?

Jerry Hairston Jr. was activated from the DL, and Dee Gordon was sent to AAA in a corresponding move in order to clear a 25-man roster spot.

The Dodgers on Monday activated Jerry Hairston before their game with the Angels, and to make room on the roster optioned shortstop Dee Gordon to Triple-A Albuquerque. Hairston, who has been sidelined since May 5 with injuries to his left groin and left knee, is in the lineup for the Dodgers on Monday, playing left field and batting seventh.

Nick Punto will play the bulk of the time at shortstop until Hanley Ramirez returns from the disabled list, with the other starts going to Luis Cruz. Manager Don Mattingly said Ramirez could begin a rehab assignment over the weekend, which puts him in line for a return early on the next homestand, about a week away.

Luis Cruz gets yet another reprieve.

How many lives does he have?

—–

Former first-round pick Aaron Miller has been converted from the mound to the outfield and sent down from AA to A-ball to begin the transition.

The Dodgers have decided to switch things up with former supplemental first round pick Aaron Miller. The left-handed pitcher has been demoted from Double-A Chattanooga to Class-A Great Lakes, and will switch to the outfield.

“This was something the organization has been talking about for close to a year. His velocity had dropped and he’s had some nagging injuries,” said Dodgers head of player development De Jon Watson. “He was a two-way player coming out of Baylor when we drafted him and we liked what we saw in his bat when he pitched.”

Miller hit .310/.415/.568 with 12 home runs, 47 RBI, 50 strikeouts, and 25 walks in 56 games in his junior season in 2009. The Dodgers drafted Miller 36th overall in the 2009 draft, and head of scouting Logan White at the time called Miller a pitcher in the Erik Bedard mold.

“We felt this was the right time to make the switch given his age and his desire to continue pursuing his big league dream and help this organization,” Watson said.

If it keeps him in the system, why not, as he wasn’t making progress as a pitcher.

It’s unlikely he’ll hit half as well as he did in college, but stranger things have happened, and there’s always the possibility he could be the next Rick Ankiel.

—–

Angelo Songco has been promoted to Double-A, as reported by our own Dustin Nosler.

If you recall, Songco’s prospect star was rising before he needed a rod inserted into his leg and missed a few months. Always a long road back.

—–

Wasn’t much going on with minor-league moves this week. Probably for the better.

Signed: LHP Jonathan Sanchez (released by Pirates, May 8)
Released: 2B Omar Luna

The name of note is, of course, Jonathan Sanchez, the one-time Giant. I touched on his signing in a previous Making Moves.

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Greg Zakwin is the founder of the site Plaschke Thy Sweater Is Argyle. Follow him on Twitter @ArgyledPlaschke.

Hanley Ramirez‘s rehab is going well, but the team isn’t keen on rushing him, so he’s still two weeks away.

Hanley Ramirez tested his hamstring running in the outfield, and Mattingly said the shortstop continues to make progress, although he is still probably two weeks away from playing.

As was the case the first time he came back from injury, given what the Dodgers have been running out on the left side of the infield, his return could have the biggest impact on the team to date.

—–

Scott Elbert continued his rehab assignment at High-A Rancho Cucamonga…

Dodgers reliever Scott Elbert pitched a scoreless sixth inning with the Quakes, allowing one hit and walking one. The left-hander has tossed three scoreless innings since beginning his rehab assignment on Friday. He’s working his way back from a pair of elbow operations during the winter.

…then made an appearance at Double-A Chattanooga on Saturday.

Elbert started and threw 13 pitches after already making three relief appearances with Class A Rancho Cucamonga. He allowed a single and RBI double to the first two batters he faced, then retired the next three hitters.

Elbert could be back to help the bullpen later this week, as his velocity his risen in recent appearances.

At the start of the season, he seemed like a luxury due to J.P. Howell and Paco Rodriguez, but now the bullpen could desperately use another quality arm.

—–

Zack Greinke was activated from the DL ahead of schedule and made a very good return to action.

In a corresponding move, Josh Beckett hit the 15-day DL following speculation that he was hurt and would need time to heal.

The Los Angeles Dodgers seemed to have a hard time getting the story straight after Monday’s 6-2 loss to the Washington Nationals. Josh Beckett, who is 0-5 with a 5.19 ERA, left the game after just three innings in part, manager Don Mattingly said, because he slightly strained a groin muscle covering first base on an Adam LaRoche groundout.

Beckett is also battling an assortment of minor injuries, Mattingly said. But what?

“He’s had some little stuff going on in different areas, and I think it was bothering him tonight,” Mattingly said.

Little stuff, such as?

“We had known some little stuff was going on,” Mattingly said.

I don’t know how they treat things here,” he [Beckett] said.

He also said, “I’m healthy enough to pitch,” which might be a regrettable phrase if the Dodgers, indeed, put Beckett on the 15-day disabled list Tuesday. The timing would be opportune as it appears Zack Greinke will come off the DL to pitch against Washington Wednesday night. Mattingly wouldn’t confirm that Greinke will pitch Wednesday, but said they’ve settled on a starter.

Either that’s a phantom DL or there’s a scary disconnect between the player and the training staff here.

—–

Ted Lilly claims he’s healthy and ready to get back to major-league action.

Dodgers left-hander Ted Lilly declared himself healthy after going five innings during a Minor League rehab start with Class A Rancho Cucamonga on Wednesday night.

Lilly allowed four runs on five hits, striking out three against three walks as the Quakes lost to the San Jose Giants, 4-3.

The veteran said he felt no discomfort from a strained right rib cage that forced him to the disabled list May 3. He was in the Dodgers’ clubhouse after their 3-1 win over the Nationals and will travel with the club to Atlanta for a three-game series that begins Friday.

Lilly said he does not expect to make another start in the Minors, though he said he hasn’t spoken to management about the next step in his rehab.

Just because he might be healthy doesn’t mean he’ll be productive, but he was activated from the DL on Monday anyway, and he will start for the team on Saturday.

—–

Scott Van Slyke had x-rays on his left leg after fouling back-to-back pitches off said leg.

X-rays were negative on the lower left leg of Dodgers outfielder Scott Van Slyke, who exited Sunday’s 5-2 loss against the Braves after he fouled consecutive pitches off his leg in a seventh-inning at-bat.

Van Slyke said there was no fracture, although it was “pretty sore” having fouled the pitches “an inch apart on the same ligament.”

He said he’ll be able to return to action immediately, as long as he can tolerate the discomfort.

“I should be good,” he said.

Last thing the team needed was the only bench bat with pop going down.

—–

Luis Cruz is apparently dealing with bone spurs in his throwing elbow now, which Chad brought up as potentially foreshadowing a phantom DL case.

—–

Mark Ellis was activated from the DL, saying his rehab was over and he’s ready to go.

—–

Corey Seager has been placed on the minor-league 7-day DL with a hamstring injury.

The 18th pick in last year’s draft, Corey Seager will take a break from his full-season debut as he rehabs a hamstring injury. He hit .267/.333/.410 with three homers in 29 games for low Class A Great Lakes, giving him a .743 OPS that is comfortably above the Midwest League average.

While Seager hasn’t been tearing it up like he did last year, he’s been better than league average and is still extremely young for pro ball.

—–

Minor-league injury news includes one important return.

Placed on 7-day DL: RHP Jonathan Martinez, RHP Sean White, LHP Jake Hermsen, C John Cannon, 1B Paul Hoenecke
Reinstated from DL: RHP Jon Michael Redding, C Webster Rivas, 2B Elevys Gonzalez, OF Alex Castellanos, OF Jeremy Moore, OF Devin Shines

Alex Castellanos is now back in the mix.

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Greg Zakwin is the founder of the site Plaschke Thy Sweater Is Argyle. Follow him on Twitter @ArgyledPlaschke and find him contributing at Yahoo! Sports.

Seemingly out of nowhere, Dodgers third baseman/shortstop Luis Cruz has bone spurs in his throwing elbow.

Dodgers infielder Luis Cruz said he was available to play Sunday after being unavailable Saturday night because of a bone spur flare-up in his right elbow.

Cruz said he has three spurs in his throwing elbow, and they occasionally pinch a nerve.

“Since I was 11, I can’t straighten my arm, and once in a while, this happens, and I just have to let it rest,” said Cruz. “My brother has it and my father has it. But it’s good today. I took swings, it’s fine.”

Convenient timing since Cruz has literally been the worst hitter in the MLB in 2013, and because there’s about to be a roster crunch as veteran players return from the DL.

No conspiracy theory to see here, though, say the Dodgers:

Manager Don Mattingly assured reporters that Cruz’s injury had nothing to do with the need to clear a roster spot for the activation of infielder Mark Ellis.

“This is real,” Mattingly insisted, moments before the club optioned catcher Tim Federowicz back to Triple-A Albuquerque to make room for Ellis.

Of course they have to say that, and I believe Don Mattingly and Cruz when they say that he’s hurt. However, put it this way, I doubt this would have been brought up as an issue if he was hitting .320 with five homers.

Plus, with Jerry Hairston Jr., Scott Elbert, and Ted Lilly due back sooner than later, something will have to be done with Cruz, as he’s clearly the absolute last option off the bench. It seems the team has settled on a DL stint, which is dandy and all, but I fail to see the risk of just designating him for assignment once and for all.

Honestly, what’s the big loss if another team decides they want to take a chance on him?

In six short days with the team in 2013, Dee Gordon has already showcased everything that once made him a top prospect and everything that made him one of the worst players in the MLB last year.

It’s a tiny sample, yet he’s managed to fit in so much amazement and failure that his performance has been noteworthy, regardless. In a way, he’s proven both his supporters and detractors correct so far.

Me? I’m neutral on his call-up, because while I think there’s certainly more upside to him than Justin Sellers or Luis Cruz or Juan Uribe, there’s also downside.

Generally speaking, Sellers and Cruz might be around 0 WAR players. Maybe they’re 0.5 WAR guys, maybe they’re -0.5 WAR guys, but at the end of the day, they should fall in around there. Fringe utility players, basically.

Gordon, on the other hand, has always had an upside around a 3 WAR player, but his downside, as seen last year, is that of around a -3 WAR player. Unlike Cruz and Sellers and Uribe, his defense can be atrocious. Thus, if he hits like they do — and he certainly did last year — it’s two negatives instead of just one.

—–

Hitting

He’s hit .316/.409/.421/.830 thus far, yes, but it comes with a .429 BABIP, which is high even for somebody of his speed. The promising part though is his new patience, but the trade-off appears to be more strikeouts, which happen far too often for the slap-and-run type of hitter he is.

Undoubtedly, this aspect of his game has been his strength so far, but whether it continues over a significant sample or not has always been the issue.

Fielding

He’s shown range and the ability to get to balls that not many can (GIF #1), but he’s also shown the tendency to make careless errors and have a lack of fundamental skills (GIF #2/#3/#4).

On only one of the three misplays featured here was he marked with an error, but it’s still poor defense … and it’s only half of the misplays I found.

Baserunning

Electric, right? Look at how he takes all those extra bases and does the little things right and … oh he just ran into three outs in a game? Drat.

—–

Flaws and all, fans understandably tend to side with Dee because of the “wow” moments he brings to the table, stuff that guys with less raw talent simply can’t even fathom doing. Dee is made for mind-blowing bursts of speed and flair that lead to extreme excitement, but he often follows that with lulls of fundamental inadequacy and lack of baseball skills, which is the part people tend to gloss over too easily.

My point? For all the highs and lows so far, his WAR on the year is 0. There’s probably not much more fitting a grade than that.

People fall in love with the explosiveness but tend forget that baseball, for better or worse, is more about the routine and the boring.

For example, Matt Kemp‘s debut was full of flash and flair as well. He bombed seven homers in his first 50 plate appearances, but then got exposed down the stretch due to his lack of refinement. From there, it was the boring things — laying off/hitting hanging breaking balls, working the count, going to right field — that led him to become an MVP-caliber player, not mindlessly hacking and trying to club bombs.

Dee will never get to that level, granted, but at some point I would like to see a hint of progress in the refinement area of his game. Kemp showed that slowly but surely, much like all prospects that pan out do, but the concern is that Dee has been rather stagnant for a while now.

——

Perhaps predictably, articles are being written about how Dee gives this team a “shot in the arm” or a “much needed boost of energy”, but the reality is that’s not the player the Dodgers need him to be. He’s ALWAYS been the “energy guy”, the “tools guy”, the “flash guy”, even last year. What the Dodgers need from him more than anything right now is something he’s never been able to accomplish: stability.

The day he gives the team daily consistency over flashy highlights is the day that I’ll buy in, and I think most others will as well. Until then, though, the Dee Gordon experience will likely continue to be a roller-coaster of alternating cheers and facepalms.

Strap in.

Luis Cruz has been … not-so-good in 2013. Okay, he’s been absolutely atrocious. Just terrible.

Mike Petriello at Mike Scioscia’s Tragic Illness has gone through all the statistical hoops to show exactly how bad Cruz has been in 2013 (go read it, even I didn’t realize how terrible he’s been).

Hint: It’s bad.

2013 lowest wOBA, min 50 PA
5. Dustin Ackley, .174
4. Clint Barmes, .155
3. Aaron Hicks, .148
2. Jeff Keppinger, .137
1. Luis Cruz, .089

So Cruz is the worst hitter in baseball this season among regular players, and it’s not even particularly close. Wonderful.

Okay, so that puts his 2013 into context, but it doesn’t answer the question of why he’s been so bad.

Granted, the most significant factor at play is that he’s been a career minor-leaguer and that this is probably closer to reality than 2012, but has anything else besides that changed?

—–

Well, a lot of the horrific line has to do with a .103 BABIP, which is astoundingly low. However, that’s not to say it’s necessarily all been bad luck, as he has an amazingly high 31.8% infield pop-up rate. The scary thing is that’s being generous, because if you watch the games you’d see how many fly-balls he hits that are of the lazy can-of-corn variety into the shallow outfield. Furthermore, his 7.7% infield hit rate is unusually high for a batter who’s not a burner, so he’s actually been quite fortunate in that regard.

The bad contact is only compounded by increased struggles to actually make contact and an almost non-existent walk rate. Last year, he walked 3% of the time and struck out 12% of the time, which already threw up red flags for many. However, it’s been worse this year, as his walk rate is even worse (2%) and the strikeouts are up (16%).

In other words, all signs point to the serious concerns being valid, and the root cause of that may be how he’s being approached by pitchers now.

Opposing hurlers now have a history on him to start the year, and they seem to be pitching him much differently. Last year, he saw 37.8% four-seamers and produced 0.34 runs above average per 100 pitches against that pitch. Additionally, he saw 11.4% two-seamers and produced -2.66 RAA/100. This year, he’s seeing 30.5% four-seamers and 5.2% two seamers, producing -5.74 RAA/100 and -7.03 RAA/100, respectively.

That’s a difference of 13.5% less four-seam and two-seam fastballs that he’s seeing this year. Keeping a batter off-balance is one of the most important jobs of any pitcher, and their new sequencing approach to Cruz seems to be doing just that.

Pitchers always adjust to hitters and vice versa. It’s a constant battle, but the hitters that stay in the majors are able to adjust back, and that’s now Cruz’s goal going forward.

—–

Perhaps another reason is a mechanical change. I got a tweet last week asking about his mechanics, and I finally got around to taking a look.

Before is on the top and recent is on the bottom.

This shows how Cruz is setting up, and it’s of the frame before the pitcher starts his motion. Not much changes from this moment until he starts his approach.

There’s a pretty clear difference here, as he’s standing more upright and more open in the before than he is currently. Additionally, his hands were much higher before.

None of this actually matters, of course. Well, unless it carries over to his approach to the pitch…

Not a ton of difference, but I can clearly see that he’s a lot more compact now than he was previously. He used to stand tall throughout the approach, but now he’s compressing his body more for whatever reason.

The most significant issue, though, is that he was further away from the plate before and used to continue to dive towards it after this frame. With his current setup, he now stays squarer to the pitcher.

None of that is especially problematic, but it’s a case of ‘if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it’, and I’m not sure what exactly precipitated this change. If nothing else, he’s clearly standing closer to the plate this year and compressing his approach to the ball. Hopefully none of the Dodgers coaches did anything to him, because with a timing device like his and a ton of moving parts, him hitting well is more dependent than most on his timing, and taking steps to change that is foolish.

—–

With all that said, none of this (and I mean none of it) is going to compensate for the skill aspect of his struggles. A top prospect with all the tools in the world will struggle at times to become a major-league regular, so a career minor-leaguer becoming a regular was always going to be the longest of shots.

Correcting the pitch selection or mechanics of guys like Chad Billingsley or Matt Kemp or Carl Crawford or even James Loney will be far more impactful than fixing Luis Cruz because of the talent gap. But he’s never been THIS bad, so subtle changes to his current approach could lead to respectable production, which could land him in a utility role due to his plus defense at two positions.

The Dodgers beat the rival Giants on Opening Day at home to begin 2013, but it wasn’t so much the win that was surprising as how they did it.

Leading off the bottom of the eighth inning of a 0-0 game, Clayton Kershaw was left in to hit, and he justified the decision, not with his arm, but with his bat.

That was his first career homer, and it made people lose their minds.

Never been prouder of Dodger fans as when they completed that successful high five.

So … that happened too.

Then Matt Kemp and the dugout did whatever this is:

Zombie dance?

And Luis Cruz is so excited. We so excited.

Fun fun fun.

Unfortunately, Kershaw is basically the worst curtain call giver in history.

We can work on that though.

Opening Day for the Dodgers is Monday, and since Spring Training feels like it has taken forever, it’s about damn time. Given the closeness of the start of the season though, it’s a bit odd that there are so many question marks as to what will happen with the roster.

Every team has to deal with decisions on the 24th and 25th man, but it’s rare that a team with World Series hopes is still deciding on the rotation and the left side of the starting infield. Since the team’s starting SS is out for two months and there’s a surplus with eight starting pitchers, it’s anybody’s guess as to how it all shakes out.

Personally though, I have to figure the Opening Day 25-man roster looks something like what you see below.

—–

Starting Lineup

C – A.J. Ellis
1B – Adrian Gonzalez
2B – Mark Ellis
3B – Jerry Hairston Jr.
SS – Luis Cruz
LF – Carl Crawford
CF – Matt Kemp
RF – Andre Ethier

SS – Luis Cruz is a relatively easy choice for me at this spot. He plays solid defense at the position and is the best option available at the moment.

Yes, I’ve read the recent chatter about Justin Sellers getting this spot, which I suppose is possible. However, realistically I can only see that happening if they release Juan Uribe, or they trade both Aaron Harang and Chris Capuano AND go with 11 pitchers, or they roll with no real backup outfielder (Jerry Hairston Jr./Skip Schumaker).

My experience with Ned Colletti and Dodgers roster decision-making has led me to always go with the player who has experience, who is being paid by the team, and who is currently on the 40-man roster. Thus, no Sellers for me.

3B – Jerry Hairston Jr. and Skip Schumaker should platoon here. Hairston doesn’t actually have much of a split (.712 LHP/.694 RHP), but Schumaker does (.762 RHP/.521 LHP). If Don Mattingly plays his cards right here, there an off-chance the Dodgers don’t actually lose much except upside for the two months Hanley’s out, primarily because he plays terrible defense.

The alternative of Sellers’ .607 career MLB OPS, or his ~.700 career MILB OPS outside of the moon base in Albuquerque, is not appealing at all in lieu of an option like this. That logic HAS to win out, right? RIGHT?!

LF – Carl Crawford certainly looks on pace even though his already weak throwing arm looks pathetic right now. Still, he’s swinging a bat and nothing is wrong with his legs, so I can’t see him starting the year on the DL.

—–

Bench

B – Tim Federowicz
B – Nick Punto
B – Skip Schumaker
B – Juan Uribe
B – Alex Castellanos

DL – Hanley Ramirez

IF Bench – The trio of Nick Punto, Schumaker, and Uribe meet Colletti’s three standards, as reviewed above, so they’re basically locks to me. Tim Federowicz makes the team because they cut every other catcher in camp except Matt Wallach, and he’s not making the roster.

OF Bench – Why Alex Castellanos, right? Why over Elian Herrera and Alfredo Amezaga? Amezaga is simple, as he’s not on the 40-man. Herrera, who I don’t think is a quality player anyway, doesn’t provide the potential pop off the bench the Dodgers SORELY lack at the moment. Not putting Castellanos on the bench means the Dodgers would have four hitters with no power … and Uribe, who can’t hit at all.

—–

Starting Rotation

1 – Clayton Kershaw
2 – Zack Greinke
3 – Josh Beckett
4 – Chad Billingsley
5 – Hyun Jin Ryu

The order is jumbled because of injury and what not, but this is what was projected at the end of the off-season, and while it’s been an adventure to get here, it’s basically worked out how it was supposed to.

That said, given the way the schedule looks, it’s possible that Chad Billingsley or Zack Greinke could be put on the DL and have their turn skipped a couple times while they work into shape (Greinke) or recover from injury (Billingsley). Either way though, that would only buy the team 10 games or so to do something before a roster decision would be forced.

—–

Bullpen

CL – Brandon League
ST – Kenley Jansen
RP – Ronald Belisario
RP – J.P Howell
RP – Matt Guerrier
RP – Kevin Gregg
RP – Aaron Harang

DL – Scott Elbert
DL – Ted Lilly

Lefty Reliever – Sorry Paco Rodriguez, you might be better than two, three, or even four pitchers in the bullpen, but you have options, so bye bye.

Veteran Reliever – Kevin Gregg has a 0.87 ERA over 10.1 IP this spring, while Peter Moylan is at a 7.56 ERA in 8.1 IP. Colletti must have a NRI veteran reliever on the team, so it is Gregg. Plus, he has closing experience, which automatically makes him the best!

Starter Turned Reliever – Ted Lilly has to end up on the DL because he looks fucking terrible. Don’t whine to me about language. It is what it is.

What happened to Chris Capuano? I think he gets traded and soon. I picked him to get dealt over Aaron Harang because he’s a better pitcher and more valuable to teams. That said, there’s an extremely compelling case for Capuano to be in the pen over Harang. It consists of Capuano saying that he can come out of the pen, while Mattingly said he sees Harang as a starter only. I get that, but unless the Dodgers want to get nothing in return, I can’t see why a team would settle for Harang when they could have Capuano, especially given their handedness.

Either way, I’m confident something of significance happens with a trade, because if not, I’m unsure how the pen would shake out unless they carry 13 pitchers. As mentioned earlier, an option would be putting Bills or Greinke on the DL, but that’s a stop-gap solution at best. I suppose Gregg could be let go, but we all know that would burn Ned’s soul, so I figure one of the two healthy excess starters won’t be a Dodger for long.

—–

Now we just wait for the announcement that Harang has been traded, Gregg has been cut, and Sellers will start at SS because … of course it would happen.

Hanley Ramirez needs surgery on his injured right thumb.

Sources: Hanley needs surgery on his right thumb. #Dodgers.

— Ken Rosenthal (@Ken_Rosenthal) March 21, 2013

Lame.

The timetable for Hanley is eight weeks following the surgery, meaning at-best we’re probably looking at mid-May for Hanley’s 2013 debut.

Well … say hello to a starting left side of the infield featuring Luis Cruz and some combination of Juan Uribe, Dee Gordon, Nick Punto, or Skip Schumaker.

Honestly, if those are the only options, I’m going with Uribe – and I can’t believe I’m typing that – as he’s at least excellent with the glove.

—–

Zack Greinke took to the mound Wednesday and reported no pain in his elbow following a four-inning, 43-pitch outing.

“Elbow wasn’t an issue today. I wasn’t worried about it. My arm felt really good and strong but the pitches aren’t 100% crisp yet.” -Greinke

— Los Angeles Dodgers (@Dodgers) March 20, 2013

And here are further details on the outing, including the possibility that he could avoid the DL.

Greinke threw 43 pitches in four scoreless innings, and Mattingly got good reports. He said Greinke was able to use all of his pitches and was sitting around 91-93 mph.

Greinke will next start Monday, and though there is a possibility that the Dodgers may have him throw in a minor league game in order to have the option to back date him on the disabled list, Mattingly hinted that might not be needed.

“We’ll keep playing all the scenarios as we go. The health theory is that we’d like to see him on the front fields. I think he wants to be on the front fields, too,” Mattingly said. “At this point if something flares up it’s probably more than a start anyway, so the DL is not going to matter.”

So he’s either going to be ready for the season from the start or head to the DL and miss multiple starts, depending on how the rest of Spring Training goes for him.

The Dodgers will need Greinke at 100% for as much of the season as possible, so caution would be the way to go here.

—–

Chad Billingsley threw a bullpen session Wednesday – minus his curve – and reported feeling no pain in his elbow, groin, and finger.

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Greg Zakwin is the founder of the site Plaschke Thy Sweater Is Argyle. Follow him on Twitter @ArgyledPlaschke.

Surely you’ve heard by now that Mexico and Canada got into a brawl yesterday during the World Baseball Classic, and in the video above, you can see all the incidents that led up to the fight.

Basically, it was a bunch of physical but legal plays … yet it was a bunt single that set everything off.

Because of the way the rules are setup, Canada just beating Mexico wasn’t enough. The tiebreaking format provides incentive for teams to run up the score and claw for every run. Just ask Korea, who was 2-1 in the tournament but is watching at home now anyway.

As such, with their fate still very much up in the air, Canada bunted for a hit in the ninth inning while up six, which is when Luis Cruz did this:

So yeah, the guy bunted, Cruz obviously had no idea what was going on in terms of the context of the play, felt offended, and told his pitcher to drill the next guy, which the pitcher did … on his third attempt, even after being warned.

Getting past the ridiculous nature of the fact that it’s acceptable to hit a batter with a fastball because a professional getting paid to play baseball got his widdle feelings hurt by a bunt*, the more important part of it is whether or not suspensions would be in order, especially after the incident escalated into a bench-clearing brawl.

*I’m not the only one who finds it hilarious that behind all of this macho bravado front is the simple fact that these fights get started because grown men catch feelings over legal plays that hurt their egos, right?

So Cruz took offense, told the pitcher to hit the next batter, and then threw the first punch in the fight. Awesome. Suspension for sure, I figured.

Nah, somehow he wasn’t even ejected, and NOBODY involved was suspended. Not from the MLB, not even from the WBC.

The seven ejected — Team Mexico’s Arnold Leon, Oliver Perez, Eduardo Arredondo, Andrew Albers and Alfredo Aceves and Canada’s Pete Orr, Rene Tosoni and Jay Johnson — will not face discipline beyond the ejections, according to a statement released by the World Baseball Classic, Inc., late Saturday night.

“Because at least one club — and potentially both — will not advance to the second round, WBCI has determined that disciplinary measures would not have a meaningful corrective impact. Thus, discipline will not be imposed beyond today’s seven game ejections. It is our firm expectation that the members of Team Mexico, Team Canada and all the tournament’s participating teams will learn from this incident and set a better example — one that befits the sport they share — in the future.”

A bizarre decision since there’s evidence that it was on purpose, it happened a pitch after a warning was issued, and there was a huge brawl with punches being thrown and people being tackled.

Oh well, the main thing is that Cruz won’t be suspended, thus avoiding any temptation the team may have in regards to keeping Juan Uribe around, which is what really worried me about all this.

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As for Adrian Gonzalez, Larry Walker had that angle covered for us.

Larry Walker said he pulled Adrian Gonzalez out of the way of the brawl. “You’re too important to the game,” he told him.

— Jeff Passan (@JeffPassan) March 10, 2013

Thanks, Larry.

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As a bonus, here’s Javy Guerra being an idiot on Twitter.

You know how fights in baseball get avoided ??? U play the game right! Who bunts there? Whats the score? That’s how people get hurt!

— JavyGuerra54 (@JavyGuerra54) March 9, 2013

Pretty sure people get hurt when you throw at batters and then punch people in the face, but I guess that’s just me.

Baseball fans love to talk about clutch plays and clutch players, and Dodgers fans are no exception, but like with a pitcher’s best and worst pitches, there tends to be a lack of evidence presented. As such, I decided to find some basis for clutch plays and clutch players, courtesy of the WPA and Clutch statistics.

WPA

Most sabermetric statistics are context neutral — they do not consider the situation of a particular event or how some plays are more crucial to a win than others. While wOBA rates all home runs as equal, we know intuitively that a home run in the third inning of a blowout is less important to that win than a home run in the bottom of the ninth inning of a close game. Win Probability Added (WPA) captures this difference by measuring how individual players affect their team’s win expectancy on a per-play basis.

Clutch

In the words of David Appelman, this calculation measures, “…how much better or worse a player does in high leverage situations than he would have done in a context neutral environment.” It also compares a player against himself, so a player who hits .300 in high leverage situations when he’s an overall .300 hitter is not considered clutch.

So that’s the foundation for this post, and since that’s now been established, let’s get on with it, shall we?

As always, visuals have been provided because, let’s be honest, everything is better with visuals.

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I feel like it’s necessary to point out that none of this is predictive of the future or telling of the past. It’s a post about stuff that happened in 2012. That’s all.

In other words, please don’t link back to this while saying, “LOOK! THIS DUDE IS SO CLUTCH, BRO!” No.

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Top Five Clutchiest McClutchington Hits Of 2012

1. Adrian Gonzalez – +69.9%

Whenever you increase your team’s chances of winning by 69.9% with one swing of the bat, something must have gone right.

Well, it did.

It was the bottom of the ninth with one out and runners on first and second. The Dodgers trailed the Diamondbacks by a score of 4-3.

Down to his last strike, A-Gon comes up gigantic with a walk-off double down the right field line off J.J. Putz.

2. Ivan De Jesus – 67.3%

THANK YOU J.J. PUTZ XOXOXO HUGS AND KISSES

Trailing 7-6 with runners on first and second and down to their last out, feeble hitting Ivan De Jesus came up and whacked a double over Chris Young‘s head in center to take the lead.

Much love to J.J. Putz.

3. Scott Van Slyke – 61.1%

Early in 2012, the season was full of “yeah, this team is winning the World Series if this kinda shit happens” moments, and this was certainly one of them.

Scott Van Slyke hit a three-run bomb with runners on first and second to give the Dodgers a 6-5 lead after they trailed 5-3 with two outs in the bottom of the seventh inning.

Even though it was only the seventh, it felt like a gigantic moment, right? WPA agrees.

4. Elian Herrera – 51.6%

So it’s the top of the eighth with two outs, the Dodgers trail 1-0 and Cliff Lee is just absolutely taking a dump down their throats, and, I mean, there’s runners on first and second but Elian Herrera or whoever is up, so it’s inning ove … HOLY SHIT! YES!!!

Shoutout to Juan Pierre.

5. Luis Cruz – 50.7%

Bottom of the sixth, two outs, runners on first and second (this is a theme), Dodgers trail the Cardinals 4-3, but 2012 phenom Luis Cruz is up and he absolutely bombs one into the bullpen to put the Dodgers up by two.

Bonus points for pimping it.

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Overall, the fact that there are five different players contributing here, and that four of the five are still basically unknowns to casual fans, speaks to how remarkable it was that the 2012 Dodgers even stayed in the playoff hunt throughout all the injuries and what not.

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Top Five Clutchiest Dodgers Of 2012 – Field Player Division

1. Dee Gordon – 1.05
2. Elian Herrera – 0.93
3. Luis Cruz – 0.84
4. Juan Uribe – 0.77
5. Adrian Gonzalez – 0.72

Carl Crawford took live batting practice against an actual pitcher for the first time since elbow surgery last August. However, yesterday he reported forearm soreness and was held out of batting practice and drills.

Crawford, rehabbing from Tommy John surgery on his left elbow last Aug. 23, took batting practice against live pitchers on Monday, but hasn’t been able to do so in the last two days. On Thursday morning when hitting off the tee in the batting cage, Crawford felt tightness in his forearm, and was shut down.

I wouldn’t overreact to it, but forearm stiffness is usually indicative of elbow ligament problems, which does seem normal since he’s rehabbing from Tommy John surgery, but it’s probably an indication that he’s moving a bit too quickly.

Update

Mattingly: @carlcrawford_ will not hit or throw for seven days due to nerve irritation in his elbow.

— Los Angeles Dodgers (@Dodgers) March 1, 2013

Indeed, the problem was elbow related and it seems it was a more serious setback than they initially let on.

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Chad Billingsley and his balky right elbow made it through his first start of Spring Training without any complications.

“After the first couple of throws I’m like, ‘Yeah this is fun’,” Billingsley said.

“Normally when you sit for a long half-inning, your arm gets tight and your body starts tightening up. But I went out there and had no problem getting loose or anything, so that’s great.”

“As soon as I left (Arizona) in October, I felt I was ready to go,” he said.

The news is, of course, positive, but whether they want to admit it or not, his condition will be speculated on all year long unless he never falters in terms of both performance and health.

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Matt Kemp continues rehabbing and could see live game action sooner than later.

No official date has been set for Kemp’s Spring Training debut, but he’s taking batting practice without issue.

Kemp, who underwent right shoulder surgery in October, hit in the cages Wednesday morning and felt good enough to take on-field batting practice — off of Mattingly — later in the workout. Mattingly said Kemp was fine and his extension, even on full swings and misses, caused no pain.

Seems like he’ll be ready to go once the season starts.

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Tony Gwynn Jr. was sidelined with a sore left groin muscle and had to miss a few days of workouts. He later said he expects to be back today, which is a positive since he’s battling desperately for a roster spot.

Gwynn is the only potential bench player with significant center field experience in the majors, so this setback can only hurt him and his chances, especially if it lingers at all like his 2012 injury did.

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Luis Cruz missed a couple days of Spring Training action with flu-like symptoms.

Cruz was in urgent care most of Tuesday, where he received IV treatment. He has returned to the lineup and the issue isn’t a concern, unless he actually has the plague or something ridiculous.

Nothing to see here.

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Ted Lilly made his Spring Training debut Thursday after an off-season of recovery from shoulder surgery.

Lilly reported no setbacks as he worked his way back into shape.

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Matt Guerrier is healthy and ready to contribute to the pen following an injury-plagued 2012.

He opted to not have elbow surgery in the off-season, a la Billingsley, and instead received plasma-rich injections.

Guerrier’s curveball was especially sharp, a sure sign that, like Chad Billingsley, Guerrier has recovered from his injury because of platelet-rich plasma injections to avoid surgery.

“Curveballs hurt me last year when I threw them,” Guerrier said. “Today, it feels completely normal.”

“I was fairly optimistic after that,” he said. “Then once I started to throw in the offseason it felt completely different.”

Guerrier’s health may help us avoid Kevin Gregg, but Matt has never been anything more than a meh reliever, with just one season of an FIP below 3.9, and a K/9 mark that has never reached 7. The Dodgers don’t need to rely upon Guerrier to have a successful pen, but any avoidance of Gregg and the likes is a win, let’s be honest.

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Justin Sellers missed workouts because of an ingrown toenail, which he got removed, but he expects to be back today.

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Greg Zakwin is the founder of the site Plaschke Thy Sweater Is Argyle. Follow him on Twitter @ArgyledPlaschke.

Paco Rodriguez, Alfredo Amezaga, and Peter Moylan, three Dodgers with shots at making the Opening Day roster, have withdrawn from the World Baseball Classic to focus on making the club.

With Scott Elbert rehabbing, Paco in particular is competing for the spot of left-handed reliever, though J.P. Howell would appear to be the front-runner there. Moylan is in the running for the bullpen as well, no matter how deep it is, simply due to the fact that he’s a veteran (see: Jamey Wright). Amezaga would appear to be a long-shot to make the outfield reserves on a team with such a high payroll, but the Dodgers don’t actually have a lot of options there, especially those who can play center field. Barring a trade, it basically boils down to him, Tony Gwynn Jr., Elian Herrera, and Jeremy Moore. In other words, hopefully there’s a trade.

Paco was slated to compete for Spain, Amezaga for Mexico, and Moylan for Australia, but at the risk of missing most of Spring Training, all three Dodgers on the roster bubble decided against participating. That leaves five Dodgers who are still in the WBC in Hanley Ramirez (Dominican Republic), Adrian Gonzalez (Mexico), Luis Cruz (Mexico), Nick Punto (Italy), and Ronald Belisario (Venezuela), none of whom figure to be in danger of losing spots.

The Dodgers pitchers and catchers report to Camelback Ranch today, on Feb. 12, which officially kicks off the baseball season for the team, and tomorrow, on Feb. 13, they’ll have their first workout, in which I like to imagine Aaron Harang lumbering through conditioning drills like a monkey.

The rest of the team will report to camp on Feb. 15, and Spring Training will be in full swing the following day, on Feb. 16, as they get their first team workout in, which hopefully includes Josh Beckett running around a lot, so he doesn’t look like this:

The team’s first Spring Training game will take place a week after the whole team reports, on Feb. 23 against the White Sox, who they share the facility with. On March 5, the minor-league portion of pitchers and catchers report, while everybody else comes in on March 11.

The last game of Spring Training will come on March 29 against the Angels (ANAHEIM!), with Opening Day following shortly at home against the rival Giants on April 1. I’m eternally glad that the Dodgers open with them at home, because I would puke all over myself if I was forced to watch the Giants having a celebration or something.

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The daily schedule on game days, via Dodgers press release:

Afternoon Games (1:05 p.m. starts):

Dodger BP: Until 11:15 a.m.
Visitor BP: 11:15 a.m.-12:15 p.m.
Visitor Infield: 12:20 p.m.-12:30 p.m.
Dodger Infield: 12:30 p.m.-12:40 p.m.

Night Games (7:05 p.m. starts):

Dodger BP: Until 5:15 p.m.
Visitor BP: 5:15 p.m.-6:15 p.m.
Visitor Infield: 6:20 p.m.-6:30 p.m.
Dodger Infield: 6:30 p.m.-6:40 p.m.

That’s not all that’s going on during this spring though, as on March 1 the World Baseball Classic will start with Australia playing Taiwan. The tournament is primarily relevant to Dodger fans because of players like Adrian Gonzalez (Mexico), Luis Cruz (Mexico), Hanley Ramirez (Dominican Republic), Ronald Belisario (Venezuela), Nick Punto (Italy), and Paco Rodriguez (Spain).

Not sure it affects Punto or A-Gon much, and it’s a miracle that Belisario is even in America at this time, but I doubt Cruz or Paco will benefit from not being in camp for their first Spring Training ever with real expectations, plus Hanley not ever playing shortstop the spring after playing horrible shortstop in 2012 is bad news (as has been said over and over).

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Additionally, via Roberto Baly of Vin Scully Is My Homeboy, here are the Dodgers home and away Spring Training caps.

Loving the home caps.

The 2013 projection for the Dodgers from Dan Szymborski‘s ZiPS system was released last week, and given that it’s probably my favorite forecasting tool, it’s worth a look to see how the team fared.

Forecasting is not a complete science, obviously, and I’ll address some of the potential pitfalls as we go along, but it’s better to use objective tools like these than the hopes/dreams of fans or the bitterness/wishes of haters.

To start us off, how does the team fare, generally speaking? A solid playoff contender, for sure, but a super team? Doesn’t seem likely.

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The Field Players

Despite all the hype over the recent acquisitions, the key cogs in this machine are still Clayton Kershaw and Matt Kemp. It’s a promising sign then, that Kemp projects at a 144 OPS+ and the system has confidence in him continuing to put up offensive numbers in the ~.900 OPS range. His defense in center still lags below average, but his bat more than makes up for it. His playing time projection has dropped due to his injury woes last season, and quite frankly, it’s hard to fault it for that. Regardless, he still figures to be the most valuable field player on the team.

Adrian Gonzalez is slated to be another bright spot, as ZiPS pegs him to bounceback a bit, though not as much as some want, clocking in at an ~.830 OPS/128 OPS+. That would still be his lowest OPS+ since 2008 (besides 2012, of course), but it’s a marked improvement considering his age and negatively trending skills. A-Gon compensates for that lagging bat a bit by putting up plus defense almost worth a win by itself. Hanley Ramirez factors in as yet another bounceback candidate, projecting at a 115 OPS+, which is an upgrade over last year’s 106 and is closer to his pre-2011 production. Defensively, even his horribad -8 run defensive rating is optimistic to me, as he was truly terrible with the glove last year. Given that I already wanted to barf seeing him trying to turn a double play in 2012, I wouldn’t be surprised at all to see him put up horrid defensive numbers after basically not playing the position all of spring.

Unfortunately, that’s where a lot of the offensive optimism ends. Luis Cruz checks in at 84 OPS+ (106 last year), which will anger many fans, but is completely reasonable given the track record. He remains valuable through plus defense, though given the sample size, there’s reason to be skeptical there as well. A.J. Ellis at 96 OPS+ (118) is another depressing but completely logical projection, as evidenced by everybody’s surprise in 2012 at his potent bat. Andre Ethier at 112 OPS+ (123) is hard to figure for me, because he has been consistently putting up ~120 OPS+ seasons even if it has come down from the ~130 OPS+ range two years ago. I suppose the projection system thinks he’ll get old in a hurry … or maybe it just thinks he’ll face an inordinately high amount of lefties. Mark Ellis at 81 OPS+ (93) shouldn’t be much of a surprise considering he’s 36 and put up an 80 OPS+ at Coors Field in 2011.

The last guy of the starters is Carl Crawford, who is the enigma of the 2013 season. He checks in at 104, which is notable because it’s basically his career OPS+ and it’s about what he did in limited time in 2012 over in Boston. That’s of particular note for me, because what he did in Boston in 2012 can be attributed to a mechanical fix that I pointed out in an article for Baseball Prospectus. Understandably, his playing time checks in low, but if he can produce like he did in 2012 but over a whole season, the Dodgers will be much better for it.

Overall, after fixing the playing time of A.J., adjusting Ethier’s offense up a bit, and adjusting Hanley’s defense down a bit, the starting lineup totaled about 22 WAR.

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The Bench & The Prospects

Assuming a bench of Tim Federowicz, Scott Van Slyke or Alex Castellanos, Jerry Hairston Jr., Nick Punto, and Skip Schumaker, we’re looking at around 3 WAR here after playing time is adjusted back to realistic bench levels. I’m guessing Alfredo Amezaga or Tony Gwynn Jr. work their way in somehow, but a five-man bench seems likely initially if the Dodgers can’t deal multiple pitchers before the season starts. Neither player would affect the WAR projection much though.

Honestly? I have to hope the Dodgers do something to improve the bench, because the current configuration looks rather mediocre, and the other options are keeping Juan Uribe and/or Elian Herrera. Yuck.

The good news is that Joc Pederson, T-Fed, SVS, and Castle are projected to be solid at the MLB level, though it sees Dee Gordon basically languishing behind.

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The Rotation

Clayton Kershaw is simply a beast, and he figures to check in with a 75 FIP-. This might seem high considering his 2011 and 2012 ERA- figures of 63 and 67, respectively, but when you consider that Felix Hernandez clocks in at 78 FIP- for 2013, you get the picture.

What might surprise is how close new acquisition Zack Greinke comes in behind him, as he figures to put up an FIP- of 81. Granted, he has always projected favorably, as his career FIP- is 80, while his career ERA- is 88, but even adjusting slightly for that, there’s a definite case there for the best 1-2 punch in the majors.

Unfortunately, this is where it gets murky, as Chad Billingsley has the stuff to be the #3, but if I were a betting man, I would bet his elbow implodes before July. He projects at 92 FIP-, which would put him around last year’s performance, which was his arguably his best season since 2008. However, given the nature of his injury and its history in the league, you can basically never rely on him to stay healthy again until he has Tommy John surgery.

Next in the pecking order are Josh Beckett, who comes in below-average at 103, and foreign import Hyun Jin Ryu, who comes in well below-average at 116. As mentioned before, the scouting reports for Beckett match this projection, as he’s no longer a front-line starter due to his decrease in velocity. However, if he can manage to learn to pitch a bit more, he still has the curve to perhaps slot in as a #3 more than a #4. Ryu is a case where I would take any projection with a mound of salt, because there’s hardly anything to base objective projections on. Personally, I don’t think Ryu has the stuff to be a #2, nor do I think he’ll be a #3 on a team with a $250 million payroll, but he should slot in comfortably in the back-end of the rotation for years. I would project something slightly below-average for 2013 and then hope for better.

The rotation is a strong point because it has both arguably the best 1-2 punch in the majors and depth, with Chris Capuano (108 FIP-) and Aaron Harang (114 FIP) presumably traded for upgrades (or maybe kept somehow?), and it checks in at about 17 WAR.

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The Bullpen & The Prospects

As of right now, I’m assuming a bullpen of Brandon League, Kenley Jansen, Ronald Belisario, Javy Guerra, Matt Guerrier, J.P. Howell, and Ted Lilly.

Jansen is the best of the bunch (63 FIP-) and League projects a distant second (92 FIP-), but Belisario has the most upside in these projections (101 FIP-). After that, Guerra, Guerrier, and Howell are all around replacement level. Lilly projects as a league-average pitcher, assuming he’s healthy, which would be a boon to a team that has a ticking time bomb in the rotation.

As far as prospects go, ZiPS thinks Chris Reed could be a replacement-level fill-in right now, but Zach Lee, Matt Magill, and Garrett Gould need more seasoning. And for all of you who have Stephen Fife wet dreams (yes, you’re out there), he projects at a 4.91 FIP, so keep it in your pants.

Speaking of replacement level, that especially applies to the Dodgers bullpen because of Shawn Tolleson, Scott Elbert, Steven Ames, and Paco Rodriguez, so the 4 WAR projection for this pen figures to be solid.

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Team Projection

A replacement-level team figures to win 43 games, and the team with the lowest amount of wins to get into the playoffs last year was the Cardinals at 88 wins, so 42 WAR puts you in the contender range and 45 WAR makes you viable, while 50 WAR will generally make a team a safe bet to be in the postseason. The Dodgers total 46 WAR, which puts them well within the playoff hunt: good but not great.

The Dodgers basically project neck-and-neck with the rival Giants, while the D-Backs lag behind a bit by maybe a half dozen wins or so, but they’re well within striking distance as well.

So make no mistake, the Dodgers recent spending habits did not make them an elite team, as the money simply duct-taped over both a flawed team and farm system depleted by Frank McCourt‘s ownership and Ned Colletti‘s questionable decisions. But that’s not to denigrate the job the new owners have done, as they turned the franchise into a legitimate playoff contender seemingly overnight, which is still saying a lot about what money can do.

Granted, “we gave you a team that has the chance to make the playoffs” is not what fans want to hear, but it’s an acceptable scenario as they lay the foundation to rebuild the franchise the correct way in their own minds. The 2013 projections might not reflect world-beaters like most seem to expect, but it’s a projection based on historical trends rather than hopes and dreams.

The 2013 Dodgers are indeed a team with a lot of upside, and if everything breaks correctly, they could very well end up being one of the best teams in the league, but they also carry a ton of inherent age and injury risk, which is why the projections come in understandably conservative. Either way, if nothing else, this team figures to be never boring.

Despite all the denials, Andre Ethier‘s name continues to come up in trade rumors, and given what I’ve heard, I don’t think it’s just noise. The latest has him heading to the Mariners, and it’s via ESPN‘s Jason Churchill (1, 2, 3).

Hearing Mariners have progressed in trade talks for a hitter. Indications it’s Ethier. Multiple players involved.

@nbynwms very possible. Heard 7 or more players could be in it… Two from LAD, 4 from sea. That leaves at least one player from 3rd team

@joshuacarpino there will be cash involved

If you don’t trust Churchill, then Mike Petriello has said that he heard as much on Ethier’s situation.

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Anyway, given that information, one has to surmise that the deal might look something like this:

Seattle Mariners Get: Andre Ethier/Chris Capuano/Cash
Los Angeles Dodgers Get: Brendan Ryan/Franklin Gutierrez/Prospects

From the Mariners perspective, they’re getting a solid ~2 WAR pitcher in Capuano with some upside and some risk for the price of $6 million with a 2014 mutual option ($1 million buyout). In this market, that’s a bargain and exactly what you want for a pitcher like Capuano, as he’d probably garner a three-year deal as a free agent. In Ethier, they’re getting a flawed but solidly above-average regular worth between 2.5-3.5 WAR, but he’s locked up through his decline years. He has little trade value with his current contract, but there’s still the cash aspect to examine.

The cash part of the deal is where it gets interesting, as the quality of prospects will likely depend on the amount of money taken on by the Dodgers. While I have heard people throw around names like James Paxton, Taijuan Walker, and Danny Hultzen, I doubt the Dodgers can coerce the Mariners into parting with any of that trio unless they eat almost all of Ethier’s contract. In a more realistic scenario, they would part with a couple solid prospects, and then what the Mariners would need is enough money to make Ethier an asset again, so perhaps something in the $20 million to $25 million range.

Other players the Mariners are parting with include Brendan Ryan and Franklin Gutierrez. Ryan is an underrated above-average regular, but he’s not the shortstop of the future for the team, as he hits free agency in 2014. Gutierrez has potential as a regular, but hasn’t been healthy in two years and also hits free agency in 2014.

All considered, if the Mariners can get a solid chunk of money in the deal and only have to surrender a couple B-/C+ prospects, the trade shouldn’t be a problem from their perspective.

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As for the Dodgers, this deal makes no sense for them on the surface. After all, Ethier (plus cash) is a productive player and Capuano is a solid starter. Additionally, the return of Ryan and Gutierrez seems light on present impact, which is what the Dodgers are looking to gain.

A closer examination, though, reveals how it could all make sense. For starters, Ethier has basically zero trade value because of his five-year/$85 million contract. Nick Swisher, a similar player that I compared Ethier with earlier, got a four-year/$56 million deal on the open market, so you can see the overpay there in clear and present terms. As such, the amount of cash will be what actually determines how much of an asset Ethier is to the Mariners. As far as Capuano goes, he has essentially no utility to the Dodgers in his current situation due to the sheer number of starters they have. Therefore, the return of decent but unspectacular players with expiring contracts, along with average prospects, actually makes sense.

Moreover, losing Ethier is part of the plan for the Dodgers, as we assume they would then go on to sign Michael Bourn. In an earlier comparison between him and Ethier, I found that he could be an immediate 1-2 win upgrade, so that would be a clear win for the team as it is.

Then there’s the other pieces to consider, who are actually worth more to the Dodgers than they seem. Ryan is a shortstop that can’t hit a lick, but is still a ~2.5 WAR player because of his consistently plus-plus defense across all defensive metrics and … well … if you watch the highlight reels like I do. His addition would hypothetically allow Hanley Ramirez to slide to third and Luis Cruz to become a super-sub type, which fixes a lot of the problems on the bench. Replacing Hanley with Ryan at short could be a ~30 run upgrade defensively in itself. Gutierrez also excels defensively, but has struggled to stay healthy. He can play a plus-plus center field and would be an outstanding fourth outfielder, as I think he could be a solid regular if he could ever stay healthy. As it stands though, he could end up being anywhere between a 0 to 3 WAR player. His acquisition would eliminate yet another need for the Dodgers bench and provide a solid contingency plan for every starter.

Now throw in a couple solid prospects as the cherry on top, and the Dodgers have just upgraded their starting lineup, resolved one of their starter dilemmas, filled two holes, extended their bench, and added to a sagging farm system.

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Granted, this is a lot of moving parts, but I struggle to see another way this works out between the two teams, if it ever does. I honestly like the trade for both sides in this proposed scenario, as I think both teams would get what they’ve been wanting.

Generally speaking, this is obviously an incredibly inefficient way to do business for the Dodgers, but if the money doesn’t matter, then these sets of moves would clearly improve the roster like they want. I do still have minor lingering concerns about where exactly the money ends, especially looking toward the future, but the details of the potential television contract have allayed my worries for at least a little while. Besides, flags fly forever and they’ve already crossed the point of no return, so why not go all out with the championship chasing while the opportunity exists?

Yes, this is the final installment of the 2012 Season Review for the Dodgers, and if you want to catch up on the others, then you can check out this tag here.

Otherwise, in the tables listed below, I have calculated the WAR (along with its components), value, and surplus value of every player on the Dodgers payroll in 2012.

It’s not meant to be taken literally (“A.J. Ellis is a better player than Matt Kemp!“), but I always learn stuff about the team that I hadn’t previously realized when I do it.

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The three best players on the Dodgers, according to WAR, were A.J. Ellis, Matt Kemp, and Andre Ethier, in order. The most valuable players, according to surplus value, were A.J. Ellis, Luis Cruz, and Mark Ellis.

Best hitters? Kemp, Ethier, and A.J. Ellis. Best baserunners? Dee Gordon, Shane Victorino, and Hanley Ramirez. Best fielders? Mark Ellis, Jerry Hairston Jr., and Cruz.

The three worst players on the Dodgers, according to WAR, were Gordon, Juan Rivera, and Alex Castellanos. The least valuable players, according to surplus value (excluding dead money), were Juan Uribe, James Loney, and Rivera.

Worst hitters? Gordon, Tony Gwynn Jr., and Uribe. Worst baserunners? A.J. Ellis, Adrian Gonzalez, and Matt Treanor. Worst fielders? Gordon, Kemp, Ramirez.

In related news, did you realize the Dodgers are STILL paying Juan Pierre? Good grief.

The three best pitchers on the Dodgers, according to WAR, were Clayton Kershaw, Chad Billingsley, and Chris Capuano, in order. The most valuable pitchers, according to surplus value, were Kershaw, Kenley Jansen, and Capuano.

The three worst pitchers on the Dodgers, according to WAR, were John Ely, Matt Guerrier, and Mike MacDougal. The least valuable players, according to surplus value (excluding dead money), were Ted Lilly, Guerrier, and Ely.

In related news, you can see why the Dodgers want to upgrade their rotation, as the team defense was decidedly average, but the staff RA WAR outperformed their FIP WAR by six wins.

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If there are any questions, let me know below.

Zack Greinke news is dribbling in slowly, especially given that talks were expected to escalate quickly. The latest speculation is that the Dodgers and Rangers are out ahead, according to Bill Shaikin.

The Dodgers and Rangers appear to be the favorites for Greinke, with the Angels as the dark horse, tweets Bill Shaikin of the Los Angeles Times.

So apparently the Angels are still in the mix, which goes counter to a previous report. Perhaps the Nationals are now out of it after acquiring Dan Haren.

With that said though, if Josh Hamilton and the Rangers works out, it bodes well for the Dodgers chances at Greinke.

Sources: #Rangers, Hamilton making progress. Deal, if reached, likely would be 4 yrs. But still possible another team could beat TEX offer.

— Ken Rosenthal (@Ken_Rosenthal) December 4, 2012

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Remember when the Dodgers were hot and heavy with Anibal Sanchez? Well, that’s apparently still a thing, as they’re in the mix along with five other teams.

The Mystery Team has finally showed up in Nashville! Bob Nightengale of USA Today reports (via Twitter) that, in addition to the Tigers, Angels, Royals, Dodgers, and Red Sox, a mystery team is in the mix for Sanchez.

Mystery Team is ETERNALLY the dark horse.

I doubt the Dodgers interest in him is serious at this point, as they are occupied currently with Greinke and James Shields.

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Jim Bowden says the Dodgers are in on Rafael Soriano.

Don’t eliminate the Dodgers as a possible landing spot for Rafael Soriano, despite their multiyear commitment to Brandon League.

Since he opted out of a $14 million option, he’s obviously going to want multiple years and more money than that to sign.

The problem? He hasn’t been all that good over the past two seasons, posting a 3.97 FIP in 2011 and a 3.32 FIP in 2012. He’s going to want to be paid like Brandon League but he hasn’t even been as good as that in the last two seasons.

Why this would be a thing I have no idea.

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Dodgers are looking at reliever Mark Lowe, according to Jon Paul Morosi.

The market for setup relievers is starting to take shape, and free agent Mark Lowe is drawing interest from a number of teams.

The Dodgers, Giants, Brewers, Angels and Rays are among the clubs that have checked in on the right-hander, major-league sources told FOXSports.com. Of that group, Milwaukee’s need for bullpen help is particularly acute.

4.16 FIP in 2011, 4.32 FIP in 2012, 4.10 FIP career.

Depending on who he would replace in the pen, there’s a solid argument that signing him would be a downgrade.

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#dodgers are looking around a bit for a SS or 3B to potentially pair with hanley. seeming M.O.: all-star at all positions

— Jon Heyman (@JonHeymanCBS) December 4, 2012

Was waiting for this, actually.

If they actually have no restrictions, I’m not sure why they would go into next year satisfied with Hanley Ramirez at short and Luis Cruz at third.

The Dodgers are the favorite to win the Zack Greinke sweepstakes, according to Michael Silverman of the Boston Herald.

According to an industry insider, the Dodgers are the favorites to wind up with top free agent starter Zack Greinke, with the Angels and Rangers on the outside looking in. And no starting pitcher on the market is going to be complaining by the end of the hot stove season.

Furthermore, “rival GMs” are telling ESPN‘s Buster Olney that if the Dodgers want him, they’ll get him.

The Rangers want Zack Greinke and are willing to be aggressive. The Angels want to keep Greinke. But ultimately, rival GMs predict, if the Dodgers intend to sign Greinke, they will get him. L.A. is also bidding for Hiroki Kuroda, whom they know well from his previous time with the team. “Cost is no object for them,” said a GM. “They are playing a different game than the rest of us right now.”

All of this is great news if you were worried (like me) about how the pitching rotation would shake out even with all this spending. Greinke, despite whatever concerns you may have about him, has more than enough talent to slot in as a #1/#2 type behind Clayton Kershaw.

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The Dodgers are also front-runners (or close to it) for Hiroki Kuroda‘s services, according to Mark Saxon of ESPN Los Angeles.

Previously, teams have been under the impression that Kuroda would either re-sign with the New York Yankees or return to his native Japan to finish his career. But Kuroda has told friends that his first preference is to pitch in Southern California, where his two daughters are attending elementary school.

Joel Sherman of the New York Post adds that the Yankees are only willing to give him a one-year deal, which only adds to the chances that he ends up in California.

That is because, The Post has learned, the Yankees are willing to offer Kuroda just a one-year contract at present. Two other teams that seemingly would be attractive to Kuroda, the Dodgers and Angels, probably would be willing to offer at least a two-year pact to the righty.

I do wonder how much truth there is to all of this talk, because signing two or three starters in free agency (also rumored to be in on Anibal Sanchez) would mean they have eight or nine starters going into 2013. Now, after that A-Gon trade, I’m never going to completely dismiss a Dodger rumor when it comes to them spending money, but it does seem unlikely that they are in the lead for all these pitchers.

As far as Kuroda goes, I’m not sure how much legitimacy there is in him wanting a two-year deal. With the way he pitched a couple years ago, if he wanted a multi-year deal he could have got one, but he took that one-year deal because he wasn’t sure about his feelings in the future. Perhaps he changed his mind, but it would seem inconsistent with his previous behavior that he would now want to be locked in for more than a year.

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Dodgers are a member of the group of teams after Kyuji Fujikawa.

Right-hander Kyuji Fujikawa started meeting with MLB clubs and touring their facilities this past week, reports Gerry Fraley of The Dallas Morning News. He’s already visited the Diamondbacks and Cubs and is expected to meet with both the Dodgers and Angels as well. It’s unclear if he’ll meet with the Rangers on this trip.

An interesting relief option out of Japan. Video from the 2012 NPB season here:

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Nick Cafardo of The Boston Globe says Kevin Youkilis is on the radar for the Dodgers.

9. Kevin Youkilis, 1B/3B, free agent — Good-sized market so far for Youkilis, at both third and first base, according to his agent, Joe Bick. The Indians are looking at him as a first baseman, while the Phillies and Dodgers are considering him at third (a back-burner option for the Dodgers). The Diamondbacks made a call, but Towers indicated they will likely not be involved.

Hell, why not, right? If the rumors are true that they’re just going to spend anything they want, why not sign Youkilis? Even if you like Luis Cruz over him, Youkilis is useful off the bench anyway.

Hanley Ramirez

Hanley Ramirez was once a stud shortstop (based solely on his bat, of course), a young player a franchise could build around. Fast forward to 2012 and Han-Ram was just a struggling player acquired by the Dodgers in an effort to upgrade at a position of need and make a run at 2012.

Acquired for Nate Eovaldi and Scott McGough, Hanley arrived as a third baseman swinging the lumber to the tune of a paltry .246/.322/.428/.750 slash line with a .326 wOBA. For the defense-first position of shortstop, that’s acceptable, but for a player of Ramirez’s offensive stature and talent, that’s a far cry from a franchise building block. Additionally, even though he plays a defense-first position, fielding prowess is the last thing anyone would ever note Hanley for.

While he hit better with the Dodgers, primarily as a shortstop, it wasn’t by much, and that came with a worse BB%, a higher K%, and a 48-point bump in BABIP from his 2012 Marlins stint. While his BABIP with the Dodgers moved closer to his career mark, he’s suffered a drop in that area the last couple of years, as it was once routinely north of .325. Factoring in a loss of speed with age, I wouldn’t bet on that BABIP magically leaping back to its earlier resting place. Why? Because with age, attrition, his injury history, and his loss of speed, he won’t exactly be beating them out in droves.

As I touched upon previously, Hanley is a terror with the glove, and it really shows when you take a look at the advanced metrics. Taking on that task reveals a mind-boggling 14 runs that Hanley cost his 2012 employers while manning both short and third. The eye test? Judging by Twitter reactions, I doubt there’s anybody who would argue with the metrics. It’s important, because that strikingly bad showing left Hanley with a paltry ~2.4 WAR, a slight bounce back from his 2011 WAR of ~1.1, but nothing to write home about after a previous string of five seasons in which his WAR never fell below 4.0 and reached as high as 7.5.

The Dodgers best bet moving forward is to have Hanley play third and an actual shortstop who can field the position play short. How Ned Colletti would go about acquiring that shortstop is a different question though, so for now, the best options would appear to be either Dee Gordon or Luis Cruz.

Dee Gordon

Dee Gordon began the 2012 season as the starting shortstop, spent much of the middle portion of the year on the DL with a thumb injury, and ended the year as a pinch-runner. While his offensive limitations were obvious, and his defense was in serious need of improvement, it was hoped that he could scrape by and get on enough to use his fantastic speed to wreak havoc on opposing pitchers and catchers.

Unfortunately for Dee, the Dodgers, and OBP-lovers everywhere, 2012 was a lost season for the 24-year-old. Prior to his injury, Dee was a mess at the plate, with a slash line of just .229/.280/.282/.562 due to his low walk rate (6.1 %), severe lack of power (.053 ISO in 330 PA), and a propensity to hit the ball weakly on the ground (58.9 GB%). Dee returned from injury and headed straight for the minors, and upon his return after rosters expanded, garnered just three plate appearances.

And yet, Don Mattingly allowed Dee to lead-off for much of his 2012 season. A.J. Ellis silently weeps.

Anyway, Dee was just as abominable in the field, costing the Dodgers ~10.5 runs with his glove. His range aside, Dee must work on his hands and accuracy, because becoming a defensive asset at short is his path to being an MLB regular. For now though, his weak bat and weak glove worked to produce a WAR right around -1.0.

The sole area where Dee did contribute was, not surprisingly, the basepaths, where he was worth around ~3.0 runs and stole 32 bases. However, he swiped bags at just an average rate (~76%), so there’s plenty of room for Dee to grow in that respect, unless he wants to be Juan Pierre and steal a lot of bags while not being a great basestealer.

Dee’s role in 2013 is not yet clear. While he could remain in the bigs as a bench player, pinch-runner, or spot-starter, it seems more likely that he would begin the season as the starting shortstop in AAA so the Dodgers can work with him on his offensive, defensive, and basestealing shortcomings.

The upside is still there, but 2012 clearly showed there was a long way to go.

Luis Cruz

As Cruz started 23 games at short — mostly after Gordon’s injury but before Ramirez’s acquisition — he’ll get a brief mention here, although his full write-up can be found in the Season Review for third base.

Despite his overall solid year, Cruz hit a mediocre .235/.267/.388/.655 while captaining the infield, though almost half of his 20 hits in his 85 plate appearances went for extra-bases (two homers and seven doubles). In the field, he was solid, clocking in at ~0.7 runs saved.

If the Dodgers start Cruz at short, he helps the club most there because his defense far surpasses Hanley’s.

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Greg Zakwin is the founder of the site Plaschke Thy Sweater Is Argyle. Follow him on Twitter @ArgyledPlaschke.

Luis Cruz

I can safely say that I’m not the only one who had no idea who Luis Cruz was at the outset of the 2012 season. By the end of it, the once unknown 28-year-old journeyman had become a cult hero in Los Angeles. Heading into 2013, it appears he’ll not only hold down a roster spot, but be the Dodgers starting third baseman.

Now whether that’s something a team with a $200 million payroll should be doing, however, is another matter entirely. Others seem to be having difficulty wrapping their head around it as well, probably because heading into 2012, Cruz’s major-league career consisted of 169 plate appearances spread over three seasons and 56 games. He was atrocious at the dish in that limited sample size, and had been a career minor-leaguer, save for those small cups of coffee.

Following injuries to Dee Gordon (thumb) and Juan Uribe (playing baseball like he plays life), Cruz was called up in early-July and spent time at third, short, and second. Most of that time — 51 games and 48 starts — was at the hot corner, where he shined with the glove, posting a 6.6 UZR and a +8 on the DRS scale. He was very good with the leather overall, saving ~5.5 runs in total in 2012. His play at third was especially impressive considering he had never before manned the position in the bigs.

That last sentence is an important one with Cruz, because fans are quick to make judgments when they first see a player perform in The Show, and Cruz has become a savor in the eyes of many fans. If injuries don’t derail plans and we assume that he continues to flash the leather at third in 2013, Cruz can be an adequate starter for the Dodgers based on his defensive showing in 2012 alone. However, if Cruz’s defense proves to be a mirage, then his offense probably won’t cut it because it’s a strong candidate to regress. Yes, that’s still better than Uribe, who we’ll get to momentarily, but simply being better than Emo Juan isn’t enough to be a productive major-leaguer.

The main problems are that Cruz doesn’t walk (3% in 2012), has limited power (.134 ISO), and is just an average baserunner. Combine those factors with an inflated BABIP (.320), and he’s looking at a less impressive 2013 triple-slash. Oh, and he swings at just about everything, including a ridiculous 41.1% of pitches outside of the strike zone, compared with a league average of just under 31%. That’s not a great indicator unless you’re Vladimir Guerrero talent-wise, and Cruz is obviously not (who is?).

Even for a guy who posted a ~2.3 WAR in 2012, given the rational concerns with him repeating that performance, a starting gig in 2013 is still a godsend. If the only options are starting Cruz or Uribe, then sure, Cruz is the easy choice, but his career minor-league line in 12 seasons and 1200+ plate appearances of .261/.296/.394/.690 speaks volumes to me, and it’s a far greater indicator of what to expect going forward than 296 plate appearances this past season.

Cruz deservedly has a spot on the team, but it probably should be as a bench player, not a starter. And given where he came from prior to the Dodgers, that’s not a diss, but rather a compliment that he’s earned his keep.

Juan Uribe

Juan Uribe managed to make it through an entire season — in which he hit an unseemly .191/.258/.284/.542 with a .245 wOBA — without being cut. He spent some time on the DL, but more of it riding the pine, going weeks down the stretch without seeing the field.

Spending any significant amount of time on him is a nauseating notion, so let’s just quickly wrap this up and note that Uribe is heading into the final year of the atrocious deal Ned Colletti handed out to him prior to the 2011 campaign. Yes, he still swings at everything, is averse to drawing a walk, and will probably still find work somewhere because he can handle himself in the field, saving ~3.7 runs in 2012.

Whatever.

Adam Kennedy

Adam Kennedy also found himself at third last season, starting 25 games and appearing in 39. He’s pretty much the opposite of Uribe, as he’s bad with the leather (about a run in debt to the Dodgers overall) but mediocre with the lumber (.262/.345/.357/.702 with a .310 wOBA overall). And by mediocre, I mean bad, but better than anyone actually expected him to be.

Jerry Hairston Jr.

One last player of note to find himself at third last season was Jerry Hairston Jr., who started 23 games and appeared in 32 at third.

He swung the bat well when playing there, to the tune of a .315/.344/.435/.779 line in just under 100 plate appearances. Perhaps most impressively though, he got off to a ridiculously hot start there defensively, which helped him rate well with the glove (2.6 UZR and a DRS of +2) even though he did struggle later in 2012.

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Greg Zakwin is the founder of the site Plaschke Thy Sweater Is Argyle. Follow him on Twitter @ArgyledPlaschke.

As everybody knew going into the game, it was literally a must-win contest for the Dodgers, as the magic number of the Cardinals was one for the final playoff spot in the National League.

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Buster Posey started the scoring in the top of second inning with a homer off Chris Capuano.

A Luis Cruz RBI groundout knotted the game at one, but Joaquin Arias broke the tie with a homer in the top of the third.

Yes, seriously. Joaquin Arias.

Then Marco Scutaro extended their lead in the top of fifth inning with a two-RBI double.

A.J. Ellis, the miracle man, responded with a two-run homer to right-center in the bottom of the seventh to draw the Dodgers within one.

Two batters later, the turning point in the game happened, as Mark Ellis was gunned down by about eleventy billion feet at third base on a ball hit into the gap.

I mean … what the fuck?

Immediately after that, Shane Victorino tripled, and while I always say that baseball results don’t exist in a vacuum … wow it was tough to watch.

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In the ninth, as if to torture us further, Andre Ethier singled to lead off the inning against a lefty reliever, which is a miracle in itself.

So bring in Dee Gordon to pinch run and either let him try to steal second or just let A.J. hit, right? Nope, try to bunt with the guy who got the game to within one in the first place! Don Mattingly everybody! His 2012 season coup de grace.

I mock the move because even assuming a successful bunt, there’s a 5.3% drop in the chance the Dodgers win, and that comes without context. With context? A.J. is a quality overall hitter with .375 OBP skills and you’re going to bunt with him for either Elian Herrera or Bobby Abreu? Does this even make sense to traditional managers? Good lord.

Results-wise, sure enough, A.J. got buntfucked. Bunt attempts put him in a two-strike hole and he eventually struck out. As if to taunt us, Dee then stole second successfully, but Abreu flew out to left.

That set up M. Ellis for an attempt at redemption.

What else can you say?

Mark Ellis missed two games due to an illness this week, and was replaced by Nick Punto in the lineup.

That’s for in case you were wondering why Punto was ever in the lineup to begin with. Though to be fair, he did do well in his limited playing time.

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Shane Victorino was scratched from Wednesday’s game with recurring wrist pain.

Oh well, he’s basically the unholy combination of Bobby Abreu and Tony Gwynn Jr. at this point anyway.

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Luis Cruz left Saturday’s game with a headache.

If he wasn’t so loved, I’m sure some idiot would say he’s soft for sitting out while the Dodgers are still alive in the playoff race, or some garbage like that. Josh Hamilton and Percy Harvin know what I mean.

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Chad Billingsley has continued to show improvement in his light throwing sessions.

His progress is probably going to be the story of the month unless the Dodgers somehow make the playoffs. Whether or not he needs Tommy John surgery is going to have a gigantic impact on 2013 and whether pitching is a priority for the Dodgers during the offseason.