So what’s next for the 2012-2013 off-season champion Dodgers?

Danny Knobler says Anibal Sanchez has been discussed, but Buster Olney says the Dodgers aren’t going to be signing any more pitchers.

As far as Sanchez goes, I’m inclined to believe Olney, because while I believe the team’s budget is comically high, I do believe they have one and that it would simply be overkill to get Sanchez.

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On the Chris Capuano/Aaron Harang/Ted Lilly trade front, Buster Olney says the Pirates have talked to the Dodgers about Capuano.

Despite the fact that the trio aren’t all that valuable to the Dodgers anymore, both Capuano and Harang have value to teams with stricter payrolls, because at the price free-agent starters are going for, a couple 2-3 WAR guys with 6 or 7 million dollar price tags are going to be a worthwhile investment.

I’ve had trouble gauging potential return though, because we’ve never really seen Ned Colletti trade for minor-leaguers in recent years. Either way, hopefully Logan White and De Jon Watson are in charge of that aspect of these trades.

Then again, Buster Olney says the Dodgers are interested in Joel Hanrahan, so that could be an option as well. If that’s the extent of the deal, I see no reason why the Pirates would hesitate, honestly. Clear win for them.

The Dodgers promoted a number of front office personnel, most notably future GMs (of the Dodgers, I hope) Logan White and De Jon Watson. White will now serve as Vice President Of Scouting, while Watson takes on the role of Vice President Of Player Development.

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Via Eric Stephen, Alfredo Silverio and Ozzie Martinez have signed minor-league contracts and received invites to Spring Training.

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Bill Shaikin reports, per Ned Colletti, that Yasiel Puig will most likely begin the 2013 campaign with AA Chattanooga.

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And now we wait for the moves of the Winter Meetings.

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Greg Zakwin is the founder of the site Plaschke Thy Sweater Is Argyle. Follow him on Twitter @ArgyledPlaschke.

The Dodgers are “front-runners” for the services of Japanese high school phenom Shohei Otani, according to the Japanese media. Meanwhile, stateside, Alex Speier of WEEI and Gerry Fraley of the Dallas Morning News both confirm the Dodgers interest in the 18-year-old, who stands 6’4″ at 190 pounds.

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Logan White and the Dodgers scouting department has been cultivating a relationship with Otani and his coach for a while now, and it appears to be paying dividends.

The Los Angeles Dodgers will be/were the first to meet with Otani today. They had actually scheduled an appointment to drop by Hanamaki Higashi before they knew that he was going to file his letter of intent. Logan White (Assistant GM, Amateur and International Scouting), Acey Kohrogi (Executive Director, Asian Operations and Scouting), and Keiichi Kojima (scout) are expected to attend the meeting. The Red Sox are also said to be interested.

Dodgers could be front runners for Otani: scout Kojima has been keeping track of Otani since he was a first year high school student and assistant GM White was in Japan in March to watch him pitch in a practice game. Otani will not attend the meeting. Hanamaki Higashi manager Hiroshi Sasaki will represent him. At least five MLB teams, including the Rangers and Red Sox are said to be interested.

So why all the commotion over him? Well, he touches 100 mph with his heater and has an assortment of off-speed pitches that he flashes in the videos at the bottom of this post. Additionally, this would mark the first time that a Japanese high schooler comes to America without first going through the NPB (Nippon Professional Baseball), so it’s potentially a trailblazing moment as well.

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As you could probably guess, due to him not currently being owned by a Japanese team, there will be no posting fee involved here, but he will be subject to international signing rules. Until June 15, 2013, all teams have $2.9 million to spend (July 2, 2012 was the start date of the period, hence Yasiel Puig) on the international market, and while they can spend more, the penalties are severe.

The rules for the spending pools are somewhat similar to the Draft spending pools in terms of the penalties that come with going over the limit. Going over by up to five percent will result in a 75-percent tax on the overage. Landing in the 5-to-10-percent range will bring a 100-percent tax and the loss of the right to give more than one player in the next signing period a bonus of more than $500,000. Going over by 10-to-15 percent will lead to a 100-percent tax and the inability to sign any player for more than $500,000 in the next signing period. Any team going over a 15-percent threshold will get hit with a 100-percent tax on the overage and won’t be able to exceed $250,000 for any one player in the next signing period.

“But the Dodgers don’t care about money, so just offer him eleventy billion dollars!”

They may not care about money, but they probably do care about not being able to spend more than $500k or $250k on a prospect during the next signing period, as it would mean not being able to secure elite talent. So in that sense, the rules become restrictive regardless of financial wealth, which is what was intended.

So with that established, how much do the Dodgers have to spend?

If you recall, the Dodgers previously inked five international prospects for around $1.1-1.3 million. They later signed Julio Urias, but only around 25% of his fee will count against the cap.

So just guesstimating here, if the Dodgers are willing to go into the first tier of penalties, they should have around $1.5-1.6 million to play with. That’s likely adequate compensation to get a deal done if Otani wants to sign with the Dodgers.

And that’s a big “if”.

It’s unlikely that the primary obstacle here will end up being money. Otani’s decision will likely revolve around his willingness to leave home for a foreign land as a teenager, his ability to deal with becoming a trailblazer and breaking tradition, and perhaps most importantly, the ramifications his decision will have on the relationship between him and the NPB, the MLB and the NPB, and the Dodgers and the NPB.

Unlike Korea and Taiwan, who inexplicably (IMO) let MLB teams pilfer their amateur talent, the NPB still has a handshake agreement in place with the MLB regarding their amateur players. And while I don’t have an inside track on how this all shakes out, given Otani’s immense talent, if he decides he wants to sign overseas, the strength of that agreement will be put to the test.

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Shohei Otani Touching 100 MPH

Shohei Otani Game Footage

In March, I wrote that international spending needs to be a priority for the new owners, referencing the Dodgers disappearing presence on the international stage and also their lack of draft spending. Well, so far, so good.

From 2007 to 2011, the Dodgers draft budget ranked 26th in the league, which is incomprehensibly low for a team that was still in the upper tier as far as payroll was concerned. Couple that with their lack of investment in the international market, and it was a recipe made in player development hell. Considering the constraints in place, Logan White, Kim Ng, and De Jon Watson did remarkably well to pump out MLB talent and hold the system at respectable levels even after years of neglect, but change was absolutely needed. Luckily, it seems to have come.

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Whether you agree with their moves or not, it’s hard to argue that the new owners aren’t trying. The controversial inking of Yasiel Puig put the team back on the map, and they have already spent on other international prospects as well. As the Dodgers re-enter the market in earnest, it’ll be interesting to watch the coming years to see if they can score more name prospects than before, especially now that connections are more important than ever with the implementation of an international spending cap in the new CBA.

Then there’s the matter of the draft, where according to Baseball America, the Dodgers ranked fourth in draft spending relative to their bonus pool allotment in 2012. The team went almost $200,000 over the limit, resulting in a tax of about $150,000. Also, the team signed a record percentage of draft picks while under Ned Colletti.

So despite the ownership’s efforts coming off as more of a public relations ploy at times, the player development focus thus far can only be considered a success.

While the Dodgers didn’t haul in any big names, in line with what was previously speculated, they did ink five players.

Ben Badler of Baseball America reported that the Dodgers signed 16-year-old shortstop Cristian Gomez out of the Dominican Republic.

Gomez, 16, is 5-foot-10, 180 pounds and stands out in the field with soft hands, good range and an average arm. He’s an instinctive player in the field and has gap power from the right side of the plate. Terms were not available but Gomez was expected to sign for a low six-figure bonus.

The Dodgers themselves officially announced the signings of four 16-year-old players: pitchers Lenix Osuna, Victor Gonzalez, and William Soto, and catcher Julian Leon.

“We’re pleased to announce we have been extremely active in the July 2 signing period and have signed multiple players with more on the horizon,” scouting director Logan White said. “We are able to get three fine young arms with bright futures.”

Osuna is the son of former Dodgers pitcher Antonio Osuna, who went 24-21 with a 3.28 ERA over six seasons as a reliever. Osuna, Gonzalez and Leon are all from Mexico, while Soto is from Venezuela.

Always loved Antonio Osuna and signing his son is just perfectly typical of Logan White‘s bloodlines obsession.

#Dodgers spent about $1 million on the four international amateur players they signed today.

— Dylan Hernandez (@dylanohernandez) July 2, 2012

Probably leaves the team around $1.8 million to $1.5 million to sign other players, but it doesn’t seem like they’ll get close to the cap unless they come out of nowhere on some of the remaining bigger names.

R.J. Anderson looked at Ned Colletti‘s trade history over at Baseball Prospectus and wondered why Dodgers fans are so worried about him.

Colletti’s evaluation mistakes cost the Dodgers two middle-of-the-rotation starters, an All-Star catcher, and a good fourth outfielder at most. But what about the flip side? What about when Colletti correctly evaluated his own prospects? Silver wrote, “One of [Colletti's] strengths seems to be knowing when to bail on his own players.” In the time since, Colletti has reaffirmed that notion. Some of Colletti’s better trades have come when correctly identifying the lemons in his own bunch. He traded Bryan Morris and LaRoche to acquire Manny Ramirez (easily the best deal of his career), used the intrigue of Joel Guzman to land Julio Lugo (whom, for whatever reason, fell to pieces, mitigating an otherwise clever deal), grabbed Jon Garland for Tony Abreu, got Jim Thome for nothing, and added Ted Lilly and Ryan Theriot for Blake DeWitt and two prospects who were unable to make the Cubs’ top-20 list this preseason.

Tagging Colletti as a good or bad general manager adds no value. What can add value is breaking general managers down to tools and skills. Colletti seems to understand that future value is worth less than present value, particularly when his team has the ability to compete now and the resources to compete later. Proper evaluation is the engine in Colletti’s machine. That means the Dodgers have to continue to land potentially useful players and continue to evaluate and harvest the potentially overvalued prospects. Every once and a while, Colletti is going to miss on a player. It happens; even John Schuerholz, the master of farm system self-evaluation, lost a few times.

This isn’t to say that Dodgers fans should have blind faith in Colletti, just that cowering in fear seems to be equally as unreasonable.

Andrew Grant addressed the notion that Ned Colletti’s not that bad of a General Manager over at Mike Scioscia’s Tragic Illness.

Ned Colletti isn’t without his merits. He’s good at assembling a bullpen on the cheap and the Dodgers get more mileage out of their veteran utility guys than most teams, but these are minor things in the big picture. Colletti inherited a dream situation, the best farm system in baseball with a payroll in the upper echelons of the league and the more it has become his team, the worse it has gotten. If you compare Ned’s moves to Bobo the General Managing Chimp he looks great, but if you assume a base level of competence from your GM Ned falls massively. James Loney’s monthly home run doesn’t make him a good player, so all of Ned’s moves not failing miserably shouldn’t make him a good GM.

I was actually going to write something similar, including using the exact same links he used, but instead, I’ll just address the question of whether Dodgers fans are justified in worrying at the trading deadline.

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Despite my derision of him as a General Manager, Ned Colletti has, in my estimation, specific strengths and weaknesses. He is terrible at major free agent signings, but fringe/average on the minor free agent deals. He’s good at trading away major league talent (usually guys that he signed, unfortunately) for useful minor leaguers. And as Andrew showed, he’s basically average at trading away minor league players, but it’s rare that he gets value in return for all that he trades away.

Coincidentally or not, his strengths all seem to derive from scouting and evaluation of minor league players (trading for minor leaguers/drafting minor leaguers/trading away minor leaguers). Such opinions were earlier justified in quantifiable form by The Hardball Times. Now I’m not saying that all the minor league strengths are due to Kim Ng/Logan White/De Jon Watson, but that is their job description, and two of those three were with the team before any of us were aware Colletti existed.

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So with that established, I don’t understand how or why R.J. gives Colletti credit for getting present talent in return on trades as if that’s what happens all the time when Colletti deals away minor league players.

Looking at the trades he has made over the years, it’s a bit odd to use that angle. Manny Ramirez was a once-in-a-lifetime scenario in which the Red Sox had to dump a Hall Of Fame talent, even the most ardent fan of Ned Colletti would have to admit that, and that’s ignoring entirely the report that Frank McCourt was the one who made it happen because he wanted to sell tickets. Andre Ethier was Colletti’s shining moment, and despite what Nate Silver said, I loved the trade at the time. Again though, that’s clearly not a deadline deal where he acquires current talent in exchange for future talent. Quite the opposite actually, and it’s certainly not what Dodgers fans are worrying about here.

So why are they worried? Because essentially, he has lost an All-Star catcher (a good one, at worst), two middle-of-the-rotation guys, and an outfielder who would have definitely started for the Dodgers over the years in return for what? Greg Maddux and Casey Blake for two months? Neither of which vaulted the Dodgers to the next level in the present or future.

As such, I would say Dodgers fans are justified to be worried about Colletti at the deadline. That is, unless David Wright decides to push over a Mets employee, bad mouth the Mets in the press, and quit on the team or Bobby Abreu blows his top and becomes a clubhouse cancer, forcing a deal for a minor league prospect. Because while the odds are good that he’ll both get nothing that helps the team and give away nothing that matters, more often than not, when the players involved have mattered, he’s come out on the losing end.

2012 MLB Draft: Los Angeles Dodgers Preview
2012 MLB Draft: Los Angeles Dodgers – Day 1 – The 18th Overall Pick Is Corey Seager
2012 MLB Draft: Los Angeles Dodgers – Day 1 – The 51st Overall Pick Is Jesmuel Valentin
2012 MLB Draft: Los Angeles Dodgers – Day 2 – Rounds 2 Through 5
2012 MLB Draft: Los Angeles Dodgers – Day 2 – Rounds 6 Through 10
2012 MLB Draft: Los Angeles Dodgers – Day 2 – Rounds 11 Through 15
2012 MLB Draft: Los Angeles Dodgers – Day 3 – Rounds 16 Through 25
2012 MLB Draft: Los Angeles Dodgers – Day 3 – Rounds 26 Through 40

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Corey Seager is one of the prospects I wanted the Dodgers to draft, so needless to say, I was pleased when they did just that. He could end up as the top prospect in the system with his combination of developing power, one of the best swings in the pool, and defense that could be plus at third base. Signability is a minor concern, as he’s said to be asking for money over slot, but he seems excited about starting his professional career.

Jesmuel Valentin pairs athleticism, bloodlines, and versatility. A switch-hitter, he’s much better from the left than the right, but he’s only been at it for a year and it takes time to get the skill down. He should get a chance to stick at short, which would make sense given his draft position. I’m not as enthusiastic about him as Logan White seems to be though, because he sort of reminds me of Preston Mattingly in the sense that he’s an athlete but the eventual bat ceiling and defensive position are up in the air. He should sign, as both him and his dad sound ready for him to play professional baseball tomorrow.

Steven Rodriguez was an interesting pick in the second round as a reliever because I don’t think he was the best player available. However, he should sign, and that’s important given the Dodgers other picks and the modified draft rules. A player that should move fast, it wouldn’t surprise me to see him next year.

Onelkis Garcia‘s demand for seven million dollars is just amusing, but he’ll require over slot money to sign nevertheless. The upside is there as a starter, but he hasn’t been seen in a game for a while now. Just based on potential alone, I like this choice if he agrees to terms.

Justin Chigbogu was an interesting choice in the fourth round. Since he was taken so high, he should sign and be giving up football. If he can shed pounds and gain athleticism, which is realistic since he would no longer have to carry the bulk necessary to play defensive line, his entire profile as a prospect could change.

Ross Stripling is a senior in college, so I think this was about signability as much as talent. He appears to be a middling starter with average velocity, but a potential bullpen move could help his profile. Josh Lindblom-esque?

Joey Curletta is an upside bat with massive power. He’s likely limited to first base, but wow, the power is impressive. He’ll need to alter his swing a bit to make contact consistently, much less hit for average, but the potential is there.

Theo Alexander sounds like Joc Pederson but with bat questions, which makes me wonder about his professional prospects. The Dodgers obviously believe he will hit given his draft position, and that’s a good thing since his upside appears to be limited elsewhere.

Scott Griggs is another college reliever and he should move fast. I assume he signs since I can’t imagine his stock having helium even if he returns to college.

Zachary Bird is an athletic, right-handed, lanky high school pitcher with velocity upside if he fills out, all of which makes him a standard Dodgers choice. This hasn’t proven to be a bad thing over the years and I hope to monitor his development.

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The first ten selections that the Dodgers made in the 2012 MLB Draft shows a solid sample of the changes to the team’s draft approach this year. The Dodgers seemed to stray from their usual staple of hard throwing high school arms and instead focused on power bats with monster upside and college pitchers.

I didn’t like that they seemed to completely get away from taking prep pitchers with upside, instead seemingly opting for lower ceiling, lower floor collegiate arms, but I loved the emphasis on revitalizing the system’s position player drought. Whether they were targeted specifically or because they were the best players available, the picks did end up filling system needs that had been neglected for years.

Going forward, I hope they don’t completely go away from high school pitchers in future drafts, but on the strength of just this one class, I found a lot more to like than dislike.

ESPN‘s Kiley McDaniel says Dodgers first rounder Corey Seager has All-Star upside.

McDaniel: The Dodgers pop Corey Seager here, the brother of Mariners third baseman Kyle Seager, but Corey is bigger and more physical than his brother. Corey could be a tough sign here with a strong commitment to South Carolina, but you have to think the Dodgers are confident they can get him signed. Seager is a very projectable athlete that plays shortstop now but projects to move to third base, where his above-average hands, smooth feet and plus arm will make him an above-average defender. He shows an advanced feel for hitting with a sweet swing from the left side and average present raw power that could be plus as he fills out his broad shoulders, giving him All-Star upside if he develops as scouts project.

ESPN‘s Scouts Inc. agrees.

Seager has All-Star upside as a power-hitting third baseman who should offer plus defense at the position once he moves off shortstop.

The younger brother of current Seattle Mariners infielder Kyle Seager, Corey is bigger at 18 than Kyle is today, so he’s likely to outgrow short as he fills out. He’s athletic and has great hands and an above-average arm, so he has a very good chance to end up offering plus defense overall. He’s an above-average runner who might drop to average when his body matures, but should retain that athleticism.

Seager’s swing has great hip rotation and he can drive the ball to the opposite field. He loads with his hands a little deep, not quite a full bar but enough to create some length to the ball, and keeps his weight back well, which allows him drive the ball the other way. If Seager will sign — he has a strong commitment to South Carolina — he should go in the last half of the first round, and I wouldn’t be at all surprised to see him go before pick 20. In the event that he doesn’t sign, he’s got a good chance to become a top-five pick in 2015.

As far as him signing goes, Baseball Prospectus‘ Kevin Goldstein thinks he’ll require more than the allotted $1.95 million.

The Dodgers seemed to be focused on high school arms, but made a statement with Seager, who has a rumored price tag well over the slot of $1.95 million here. This is the first good sign for Dodgers fans about how things will work under new ownership.

As far as speculation that he will be a third baseman as a professional, Logan White doesn’t see what the rush is to move him off the position.

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Second round pick Steven Rodriguez could move quickly.

“I never try to put too much of a timeline on them, because a lot of times when guys make it to the Major Leagues, it’s based on club need and where ballclubs are at,” White said. “But I can certainly see him battling for a job here toward the end of the next year or the following year, because he’s that polished and he has that good of stuff.”

Rodriguez is considered by MLB.com Draft expert Jonathan Mayo as the prospect most likely to first arrive in the big leagues after Blue Jays first-round selection Marcus Stroman.

Rodriguez is the sort of polished veteran college pitcher that can jump into professional baseball and move up the ranks faster than most, White said.

Honestly, I don’t get what the rush is to get a contributing arm in the bullpen. It’s the one area I’m fairly confident that the Dodgers are deep at.

Perhaps they’ve completely lost confidence in Scott Elbert or something? Because this seemed like a pick for need more than best player available, despite what he says.

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Third round pick Onelkis Garcia is said to want seven million dollars to sign, but Kevin Goldstein of Baseball Prospectus doesn’t see him getting it.

The Dodgers take Onelki Garcia, last year’s weird Cuba story. He said he wants $7 million, he’s not going to get $7 million.

— Kevin Goldstein (@Kevin_Goldstein) June 5, 2012

Seems unfair that he’s stuck in the draft, but as long as he is, there’s no way he’s getting that type of money. That’s a first pick overall slot.

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Baseball Prospect Report has a profile on 8th round pick Scott Griggs.

When you spend two years behind Cole and Bauer, you pray for those Sundays. His media guide bio will do all the basic work for you. He finally got to me on a recent Saturday. What you have here is a good right-handed arm coming high 3/4 with a fastball 92-94, 95 on the faster hair dryers that scouts who want their names on guys prefer, and a solid average breaking ball at 80-82, good rotation and movement, bite. Thank you very much, a college pitcher with a second pitch I trusted, even though it was in a short look. Griggs isn’t terribly pretty the way he lands and perhaps on the pro side his delivery can be slowed down just a tad to get a little bit better control and consistency going. But he’s got the stuff and he’s got the downhill, which you gotta have coming out of college if you’re going to survive.

Well, this got here in a hurry, huh?

All of a sudden, the first round of the 2012 MLB Draft is upon us. The Los Angeles Dodgers have $5,202,800 to spend on their 11 total picks, and the team has two picks today: 18th overall and 51st overall.

Mock drafts have been done all over the place, so I thought it would be worthwhile to take a look at the team’s potential draft picks.

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#18 Overall

Ty Hensley – RHP – Santa Fe High School – Oklahoma

Jonathan Mayo of MLB.com has the Dodgers taking Hensley.

18. Los Angeles Dodgers: Ty Hensley, Santa Fe HS (Okla.)

A number of high school pitchers could come into play here, with Hensley being the one most often mentioned with the Dodgers. This could also be a landing spot for Cecchini should the Mets not take him.

So does Keith Law of ESPN.

Ty Hensley, RHP, Edmond (Okla.) Santa Fe H.S.

I’m suddenly not hearing much else here. Hensley has size, arm strength and projection, but his command is below that of the other top prep arms.

As does Jim Callis of Baseball America.

18. DODGERS. After using its last nine top draft choices on a pitcher, Los Angeles appears headed down that route again. It’s difficult to project picks this deep in the first round with much certainty, but a lot of industry insiders are convinced the Dodgers will take Hensley.

Projected Pick: TY HENSLEY.

Baseball America has him ranked as the #23 prospect in the draft.

The Cardinals made Mike Hensley the 53rd overall selection in the 1988 draft, and his son Ty will beat him by about 30 picks this June. While several of this draft crop’s high school righthanders have been injured or regressed this spring, Hensley has done nothing but help his cause. The 6-foot-5, 220-pounder has sat at 92-95 mph and touched 96-97 with his fastball all season–and it’s not even his best pitch. That would be a 12-to-6 curveball that he spins in the upper 70s. Hensley’s command isn’t as impressive as his pure stuff, and he still needs to add some life and work down in the zone more often with his fastball. Before his velocity spiked, he showed a promising changeup as a sophomore, but he hasn’t needed it this spring. A quality athlete, Hensley played quarterback at Santa Fe High before giving up football before his senior year. He’s also a power-hitting switch-hitter who could get the opportunity to play both way in the unlikely event that he follows through on his commitment to the University of Mississippi.

A high school right-handed pitcher with bloodlines, power stuff, and command questions?

Yeah, he’s tailor-made for Logan White‘s tastes.

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Gavin Cecchini – SS – Barbe High School – Louisiana

John Sickels of Minor League Ball has the Dodgers going with a position player here.

Cecchini is one of the best high school fielders and should hit enough to be a very good pick for the Dodgers.

Baseball America has him ranked as the #16 prospect in the draft.

Cecchini’s family occupies a unique place in Louisiana baseball, as his father and mother both coached him and his older brother Garin at Barbe High. Garin signed with the Red Sox for a $1.31 million bonus as a fourth-round pick in 2010. Gavin is likely to be drafted higher, in the first round, even though he’s not as physical and his bat is much more in question. Wiry at 6-foot-1, 185 pounds, Cecchini’s best attributes are his steadiness and defensive skills at shortstop. He has good hands and feet as well as the infield actions to stay at short, and excels at cutoff throws and being in the right spot defensively. His arm strength is a tick above-average and unfailingly accurate. His speed is about the same and plays up like his arm–he’s a skilled baserunner who takes extra bases and steals bases intelligently. Cecchini’s bat involves some projection, though. Some scouts believe he will be a bottom-of-the-order hitter despite his polished approach because of a lack of strength and impact bat speed. Cecchini is one of the safer bets in the high school class due to his polish, but scouts are mixed on his true upside.

While a position player would be a nice change of pace, it would be great if they could take a thumper just once, instead of having to rely on a defender to evolve as a hitter.

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Michael Wacha – RHP – Texas A&M University

Marc Hulet of FanGraphs has the Dodgers going with a college arm.

18. Los Angeles Dodgers: Michael Wacha, RHP, Texas A&M – Wacha’s arm is not as dynamic as the college arms at the top of this list but he knows how to pitch and flashes two very good pitches in a low-90s moving fastball and plus changeup. He has both a slider and a curveball but both are inconsistent. He has a big, strong pitcher’s frame.

Kevin Goldstein of Baseball Prospectus has him going to the Dodgers as well.

18. Los Angeles Dodgers ($1.95M): Michael Wacha, RHP, Texas A&M

I just have to get Wacha off the board here, as he’s expected by many to go in the early teens. The Dodgers have been primarily attached to high school arms like Ty Hensley and Lucas Sims, but a quick return might appeal to new ownership looking to make a mark.

Baseball America ranks him as the eighth best prospect in the draft.

After the consensus top three college pitchers (Stanford’s Mark Appel, Louisiana State’s Kevin Gausman, San Francisco’s Kyle Zimmer) go off the board, Wacha could be the next one selected. He owns the best changeup in the draft, a pitch that can be devastating when he sets it up with a 90-93 mph fastball that peaks at 96. His command also is as good as any pitcher in this crop, as is his competitiveness. He also has an athletic 6-foot-6, 200-pound frame and delivers his pitches on a tough angle to the plate. The only thing keeping him from being considered on the top tier of college arms is the lack of a plus breaking ball. Wacha made progress with a slider last summer under the tutelage of Team USA pitching coach Rob Walton, and he also throws a curveball. Wacha generally sticks with whichever breaking pitch is working best on a given day. Both pitches can get loose at times and project as no better than average at the big league level. Despite that one shortcoming, he still could find his way into the first 10 picks. He may not have the ceiling of Appel, Gausman or Zimmer, but Wacha has a higher floor.

Would be an odd pick to me, since the Dodgers have nothing but arms, and he seems like a #3 or a #4 in the majors if things pan out.

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Courtney Hawkins – OF – Carroll High School – Texas

Baseball America has him ranked as the 15th best prospect in the draft.

Scouts have coveted Hawkins since his performance as a sophomore in the 2010 Texas 5-A state playoffs. He bombed a ball into the upper-deck home run porch at Round Rock’s Dell Diamond, then earned MVP honors in the clincher as a starting pitcher. Though he can run his fastball into the low 90s, he definitely will make his living in the batter’s box. Hawkins is loaded with bat speed and uses his 6-foot-3, 210-pound frame to generate exceptional leverage from the right side of the plate. He’ll need to tame his maximum-effort swing, stop sitting on fastballs and improve his pitch recognition. He’ll rack up some strikeouts, though they’ll be a worthwhile tradeoff for his home runs. More physical than most high school players, Hawkins also brings a plus arm and solid speed to the table. A center fielder in high school, he’ll likely wind up in right field as a pro. Scouts praise his instincts and makeup as well as his tools. He’s the most talented member of a University of Texas recruiting class that features the five best high school prospects in the state, and a lock to sign as a mid-first-round pick.

Just a personal preference, as I would like to see the team take a shot on a thumper for once, as the system is almost completely devoid of upside bats.

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Corey Seager – 3B – Cabarrus High School – North Carolina

Baseball America has him ranked #19 in the draft.

The younger brother of Mariners third baseman Kyle Seager, Corey has been on scouts’ radar for a couple of years, but he started moving up draft boards this spring. He has a big, physical frame at 6-foot-3, 205 pounds with plenty of strength. He plays shortstop now and is a good defender, but scouts see him shifting to third base as a pro, where he could provide above-average defense. A lefthanded hitter, he has a simple swing and can go the other way with power. The game comes easy to him and scouts find it easy to see his upside, considering his brother was a third-round pick out of North Carolina and made the big leagues after just 279 minor league at-bats. The younger Seager has a strong commitment to South Carolina, but is likely to be picked in the first round.

Same theory. An upside bat who projects to the corners, but this one has the defense to stay at a valuable position.

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#51 Overall

Carson Kelly – 3B – Westview High School – Oregon

Baseball America has him ranked #43 for the draft.

Oregon hasn’t produced a high school player in the first three rounds since 1998 when righthander Steve Bechler went to the Orioles, but Kelly has the talent to end that streak. He is a two-way player, but more scouts prefer him as a position player. He’s a below-average runner, but his other tools are solid. Kelly has a strong build and is already pretty well filled out. He has a nice line-drive stroke with good loft and power potential. He’s not flashy, but he’s a steady defender at third base and has a strong arm. Some teams would like to try Kelly behind the plate. On the mound, he sits in the 90-92 mph range and throws a curveball and changeup. The Oregon recruit is young for the class and won’t turn 18 until mid-July but shows excellent maturity and leadership.

Love the fact that he’s a young, athletic player with bat upside. I think age coming out of high school is one of the most overlooked aspects of high school players. A true 19-year-old is very different from a true 17-year-old.

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Wyatt Mathisen – C – Calallen High School – Texas

Baseball America has him ranked #47 for the draft.

Mathisen is the best high school catching prospect in the draft, though he hasn’t seen much time behind the plate for Calallen High, which has deemed him more valuable as a shortstop and pitcher. There’s no question his pro future is as a backstop, and he has the tools and desire to make it there. He has plus arm strength and the athleticism to become a good receiver, though his inexperience shows as he flinches at times when catching the ball. His makeup is off the charts, as he has the leadership ability to run a pitching staff and the work ethic to succeed. The 6-foot-2, 215-pound Mathisen has the swing and strength to hit for average and power from the right side of the plate. He’s a good runner for a catcher, grading as close to average, though he’ll probably lose a step once he starts catching every day. Like crosstown Corpus Christi rival Courtney Hawkins, he’s a Texas recruit.

People say the Dodgers system has a lot of catching prospects, and while that’s true, not many of them project as regulars. Wyatt Mathisen would.

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J.O. Berrios – RHP – Papa Juan XXIII High School – Puerto Rico

Baseball America has him ranked #49 for the draft.

In the history of the draft, only two pitchers from Puerto Rico have been drafted in the top two rounds–Jorge Lopez, who went in the second round to the Brewers last year and Luis Atilano, a Braves supplemental first-round pick from 2003. This year, there may be two more on that list and Berrios will likely be the first off the board. Berrios worked with a conditioning coach this fall and spring and added 20-25 pounds to his frame since the summer and now has a muscular, athletic 6-foot-1, 180-pound physique. The added muscle has allowed him to smooth things out and has boosted his fastball velocity. His fastball now sits in the 93-95 mph range and some scouts have seen him touch 98. He throws his fastball down in the zone, mixes in a sharp, 80-81 mph slider and shows the makings of a solid changeup with fading action. Berrios is getting buzz as high as the back of the first round, and it’s unlikely he’ll wind up honoring his commitment to Miami Dade JC.

The Dodgers actually seem to scout Puerto Rico actively, even under Frank McCourt, so this isn’t that farfetched to me.

Raw, upside velocity with a potential plus breaking ball would seem to be something Logan White might pursue.

“Less” — the comparative effectiveness of the franchise’s free agent spending under his reign.

“Most” — the production contributed by cost controlled players while he’s been in charge.

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Ned Colletti has been the GM for one of the most successful runs in Los Angeles Dodgers history, compiling at 511-460 record since the 2006 season, good for third in the National League, behind only the Philadelphia Phillies and St. Louis Cardinals. The success has led many fans and writers to excuse away any deficiencies he may have, because the results have been solid.

Despite the results though, his work is not well regarded by bloggers. The general belief is that the main cog behind the franchise’s success was actually the perfect storm of cost controlled talent rising from the minor league system around the same time. Most of that talent was brought in and nurtured by Logan White and Kim Ng, who were hired by a previous GM, Dan Evans. Meanwhile, Colletti is thought to have squandered the tremendous window of opportunity provided to him on free agent signings like Juan Pierre, Jason Schmidt, and Andruw Jones. Perhaps most importantly, the further away Colletti gets from the influence of the previous regimes, the worse the roster seems to get.

I bring up these divergent narratives because The Hardball Times recently put out a great study on an objective way to measure front office performance, and the results appear to explain both lines of thinking.

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So what was studied and what do I mean by “Less” and “Most”?

There are really two different sources of per-dollar efficiency when we look at marginal payroll per marginal win:
(1) How well a team gets production from players not yet eligible for free agency
(2) How efficiently a team spends on free agents

So, for the following analysis, I will use two classifications of players that are particularly important.
(1) NM = Non-Market Players, who are either bound to their team by the reserve clause or eligible for arbitration
(2) AM = Auction-Market Players, who are eligible for free agency or are at least eligible for auction by being professional amateurs from countries like Japan and Cuba.

So what we’re really looking at to evaluate the performance of front offices is marginal payroll per marginal win, or how efficient a front office is at developing and signing talent.

“Most”, in the case of the Dodgers, is represented by the production of their cost controlled players, who are developed from within. The Dodgers rank an amazing 1st in the MLB in this category, explaining both the position of bloggers and the perception that the team has developed a wealth of homegrown talent.

On the other hand, the Dodgers’ payroll averaged $110 million over the last five seasons, but they might have been just as good if they had just retained their own draftees and amateur signings. The only cost would have been about $30 million in arbitration and league minimum salaries, and they would have been about as good as they were spending $110 million.

Of course, that’s not completely true, as there are roster flexibility issues to account for, but it goes to show just how much homegrown talent Colletti has been afforded under his reign.

The “Less”, in that case, becomes the way the Dodgers have spent on free agents, who are purchased from outside the organization. In that category, the Dodgers ranked 19th in the MLB, spending about $6.3 million per win. It’s an inefficient way to do business, but with enough payroll flexibility, he was able to throw around enough money to get production out of them. This helped set up the successful run of results for Colletti, explaining the position of many fans and writers.

Overall, the study basically showed that Colletti had been given the most productive farm system in baseball from 2007-2011 and still somehow managed to end up with a progressively worse roster as the years went by. The main culprit was spending around $6.5 million per win in free agency, or about $2.0 million more per win than league average.

It’s an indictment of your talent as a decision maker when there are tens of millions to spend with the purpose of improving on what you’ve already been given, yet you’re barely able to claw back and achieve the results of what you already had to begin with.

In the end, the Dodgers ranked 21st in marginal payroll per marginal win from 2007 to 2011.

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If new President Stan Kasten has faith that he can work with Ned Colletti and provide him with the tools to improve as a GM going forward, then I’m willing to put my faith in Kasten’s track record and start over with Colletti. However, given the fact that the Dodgers job has to be one of the most currently appealing GM positions in the majors, the far preferable solution would be to replace Colletti with one of the game’s many bright young minds in either scouting or analytics.

Baseball America recently released the list of each team’s international spending for 2011, and it should come as no shock that the Los Angeles Dodgers didn’t make a ton of noise. However, not only are they dead last, but they’re dead last by a lot.

Baseball America has compiled estimates of each team’s international amateur signing bonus expenditures in 2011, excluding Cuban defectors and Japanese professionals.

The Texas Rangers rank 1st with a massive $12.83 million spent, while the Chicago White Sox rank 29th with $0.78 million in contracts. The Dodgers? A healthy $0.18 million doled out. Wonderful.

Sadly, that isn’t just a 2011 thing either, as the Dodgers ranked dead last in 2010 international spending as well. The Seattle Mariners lead the way last year with $6.47 million in contracts, while the White Sox were in 29th again with $0.35 million spent. The Dodgers managed to keep it closer that year, clocking in at $0.31 million, but still in 30th.

Yes, those numbers are correct. Over the past two years, the Dodgers have not spent a half million in funds on the international market. Of course, that makes total sense, because why would they want to allocate money towards the farm system that carried the team early in Ned Colletti‘s tenure when they can give all that money to the Garret Andersons of the world?

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Here’s the thing though, international signings are important to having a quality farm system.

We can measure the influence of the draft grades and international signings on farm system rankings by calculating the correlation coefficient for each both, where an r = 1.0 would indicate a perfect correlation, while an r = 0 would indicate no relationship.

Talent pool r
International: 0.43
Draft grades: 0.23

The results seem counter-intuitive. International prospects account for just 24 percent of players in the Prospect Handbook. Despite the growth of baseball in Latin American countries and other areas across the world, the United States (and thus, the draft) is still the predominant source of talent at the minor league and the major league level. No team can truly build a farm system through international free agency, and yet the number of international signings—even looking strictly at volume, regardless of quality or current organization—is a better indicator of farm system strength than the quality of a team’s recent drafts.

The more I think about it, though, the more I think the numbers make sense. Ultimately I believe the results mainly boil down to this: there is a larger spread in the ability of teams to sign and develop international prospects compared to the ability of teams to draft good players.

So as much as Logan White has taken some heat recently for the deteriorating farm system, he actually deserves some credit for managing to keep the Dodgers farm system in the middle of the road with almost literally zero help from the international side of things and a draft budget that has ranked 24th from 2007 to 2011.

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As a franchise that used to pride itself on its international presence, today the Dodgers have become a complete non-factor in that area, as they not only have zero big ticket signings anymore, but hardly any signings at all. As such, it should come as no surprise that the Dominican Summer League team is essentially a talent wasteland.

I’m not advocating that the incoming Dodgers owners blindly throw money at the problem, nor do I think they should go out and sign every hyped prospect, but the team’s current presence in the market is almost literally zero, which is unacceptable. Given the correlation between international activity and farm system health, the current path is a significant detriment to the franchise’s winning potential, and winning is the priority … right?

Dylan Hernandez of the Los Angeles Times reports that Clayton Kershaw will throw a bullpen session on Friday after getting his original bullpen session postponed due a sore back on Wednesday. Additionally, Mike MacDougal postponed a bullpen session due to a back injury.

Ah, Spring Training!

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Ken Gurnick of MLB.com reports that the Los Angeles Dodgers have claimed Matt Angle off waivers from the Baltimore Orioles and moved Rubby De La Rosa to the 60-day disabled list.

My question? Why him?

He’s a 25-year-old outfielder that hit .177/.293/.266/.559 in the majors last year, and only .271/.347/.344/.692 in the minors. Plus, Ned Colletti signed enough outfielders to have five or six of them on the roster, and all the Dodgers have in the minors is potential reserve outfielders.

Confusing.

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Don Mattingly thinks Chad Billingsley can do much better, which isn’t surprising given his 2011, but the mechanics part off the story is interesting.

“I think there’s more there,” manager Don Mattingly said. “Honey [pitching coach Rick Honeycutt] thinks there’s more there. I think Chad thinks there’s more there. That’s the thing we want to help him with, just to get a little better.”

According to Honeycutt, scouting director Logan White provided video of Billingsley pitching in high school, when he dominated Ohio preps, leading to his first-round selection by the Dodgers. Back then, he kept his foot under his body as he lifted his lead leg. In recent years, he kicks out the foot before shifting his body weight from right leg to left. He worked during the winter on regaining his high school form.

“I’m trying to keep my foot closer and that allows me to be more consistent in my rhythm and timing,” Billingsley said. “We looked at some video and noticed that it was different from a few years ago. It doesn’t seem like a big thing, but a little adjustment can make a difference.

“It’s not really about confidence. My confidence is fine. It’s more like when you’re pitching or hitting and it doesn’t feel effortless. There are times when I feel I have to force my body to get into position and I have to work at it. I fight myself, kind of. We all try to throw the fastball down and away. For me, to do that, I feel like I’m throwing across my body and it leads to cutting the ball.”

Would love to have that video of him in high school so I can compare, but it’s still something worth monitoring.

Enjoyed how he threw in that part about his confidence just so that people can get off that schtick for once.

Los Angeles Times: And then there were eleven.

The lineup of Dodgers bidders, as of Wednesday:

Magic Johnson/Stan Kasten: Could soon be joined by richest man in L.A., Dr. Patrick Soon-Shiong.

Rick Caruso/Joe Torre: Not out of the running in the Soon-Shiong sweepstakes.

Steven Cohen/Arn Tellem: Cohen about to invest $20 million in Mets, able to spend 75-100 times as much on Dodgers.

Stan Kroenke: Owner of NFL’s St. Louis Rams could move L.A.’s football team back home.

Peter O’Malley: Former Dodgers owner backed by South Korean conglomerate E-Land.

Tony Ressler: Minority owner of Brewers has discussed partnership with O’Malley.

Leo Hindery/Tom Barrack: New York media executive has teamed with L.A. real estate investor and sportsman.

Stanley Gold/Disney family: That’s the family of the late Roy Disney, Walt’s nephew.

Jared Kushner: Publisher of New York Observer, son-in-law of Donald Trump.

Michael Heisley: Owner of NBA’s Memphis Grizzlies hired Jerry West to run his team.

Alan Casden: USC Board of Trustees includes Dodgers bidders Casden, Caruso, Gold.

Gonna get interesting now.

Los Angeles Times: If you noticed Michael Heisley as a name that had previously gone unmentioned, you’re correct. It was just revealed today that he was involved in the ownership bidding.

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Feelin’ Kinda Blue: Profile/interview with Jon Weisman.

FanGraphs: An interview with Logan White.

He talks about analyzing pitchers biomechanically, drafting Clayton Kershaw, missing on Ethan Martin (he disagrees), and finding gems in Allen Webster and Nate Eovaldi.

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The Hardball Times: PITCHf/x player cards. Amazing.

FanGraphs: An interview with Brian Peterson, the sports psychologist for the Detroit Tigers.

MLB.com: Outfielder Jamie Hoffmann was claimed by the Rockies off waivers, which makes it unlikely the perennial sixth outfielder in the system will be back.

MLB.com: Remember Ronald Belisario? He wants back in.

Ronald Belisario, not seen by the Dodgers since 2010, is again working on obtaining a work visa that would allow him to return to the United States and compete for a Dodgers bullpen role next season.

General manager Ned Colletti wouldn’t characterize the odds of Belisario actually showing up at Camelback Ranch-Glendale in February, but he confirmed that the right-hander has been working with government officials to allow his return.

Everybody has wishes, I suppose.

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MLB.com: Logan White has been interviewed for the Astros vacant GM position.

The Astros have interviewed Dodgers assistant general manager Logan White for their vacant general manager position, a Major League Baseball source told MLB.com.

Just as Ned Colletti is about to be shown the door.

Los Angeles Times: Pat Gillick would have interest in being the president of baseball operations for the new owners.

Pat Gillick, one of the most successful executives in baseball history, said he would consider joining the Dodgers if a new owner wished to consider him.

Gillick said he has been approached by prospective bidders for the Dodgers but said he would not align with any potential ownership group. Once a new owner is selected — and if that new owner is interested — Gillick said he would consider a position as president of baseball operations.

It’s an upgrade, but his history is a bit spotty.

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MLB.com: Dodgers are in negotiations for minor league contracts with five players.

The Dodgers are in discussions with four non-roster players on Minor League contracts with invitations to Major League Spring Training — three of them pitchers — and are close to a deal with another.

The four are: Jose Ascanio, a right-handed reliever; Jeff Baisley, a corner infielder; Wil Ledezma, a left-handed reliever; and Shane Lindsay, a right-handed reliever.

A tentative agreement has been reached with Alberto Castillo, a 35-year-old left-hander from Cuba who had a 2.31 ERA in 17 games in 2011 for the D-backs, his eighth organization. He missed August with shoulder tendinitis.

Wil Ledezma had been rumored to be signing for a while now, but the rest are new and rather uninspiring, which is to be expected.

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True Blue LA: Eric Stephen wrote a great article about how risk aversion can end up being risky as well.

In order to get these five marginal upgrades in 2012, the Dodgers will pay something like $26.5 million in 2013 for a group of older players ($23 million if Rivera’s option is not exercised). We could be paying $13 million in 2013 for three hitters who hit a combined .257/.314/.369 in 2011. Keep in mind, this group includes two players who were so bad in 2011 they were designated for assignment and dumped by their original teams, and a pair of homer-prone pitchers who made opposing hitters look like All-Stars outside of their friendly home parks.

I get not wanting to dive into the deep waters of the free agent market. Long-term commitments can be scary, and carry with them a lot of risk. But sometimes too much risk aversion can leave you saddled with the equivalent of a superstar price tag without anything close to superstar production.

Perhaps after all the dust settles, I’ll look at how everything actually shook out, but what this replacement level player spree is costing the Dodgers in 2013 was an eye opener for me.

Clayton Kershaw

Was there anyone else to begin this review with? Just 23-years-old and consistently underrated and overlooked by the mainstream media entering 2011, Clayton Kershaw silenced all of his remaining critics with one of the best seasons for a pitcher in recent memory, Dodger or otherwise.

Consistent from start to finish, Clayton improved in every respect from his fantastic 2010. First and foremost, he cut a walk and a half off of his 2010 mark, and has seen a three-year improvement in that area of his game (4.79/3.57/2.08 BB per nine). He set career highs in tERA (2.52), FIP (2.47), and SIERA (2.81); induced more ground balls than last season (40.1%/43.2%), while giving up less fly balls (42.1%/38.6%); and continued to master the craft of creating weak contact. With his already amazing ability to get hitters to swing and miss, Kershaw also generated more infield popups, in 13.3% of his opponents’ plate appearances to be exact. An infield popup serves the same purpose as a strikeout, as no runner who may be on-base will advance, and it does in fact speak to his skill at creating weak contact, a point that can’t be emphasized enough.

Kershaw, who has seen a four-year incline in his WAR (1.4/4.1/4.7/6.8), struck out 9.57 per nine innings pitched, and combined with his limiting of free passes, saw his K/BB ratio leap up to over four and a half and his WHIP reach a new low of 0.977. Keeping hitters off-balance with a four pitch repertoire that features a fastball, slider, change, and Public Enemy Number One, Clayton is in line to finish first or second in the Cy Young voting.

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Considering that he’s young, has had tremendous success already, and captured the pitching Triple Crown in 2011 (two of which are meaningless categories, though that of course does not diminish his dominance this season), he’ll be in line for a lengthy raise as he hits arbitration for the first time.

With the season he just had, proving conclusively that he could control his walks and be a workhorse at the same time, as he made 33 starts and surpassed the 200 IP mark for the second consecutive season, the Dodgers would be wise to sign him long-term. They would have been wise to do that prior to this campaign, of course, but better late than never.

Chad Billingsley

Chad Billingsley entered 2011 on the heels of his best season as a pro, one in which he posted a career best 3.18 tERA and a FIP of 3.08, another professional low for the righty. He had washed away the complaints of many that he lacked the intestinal fortitude and mental stability to pitch successfully, deep into games, and in high-pressure situations (though, of course, we know that those claims never carried any water to begin with). His performance earned him a new multi-year, big money contract, and the Dodgers entered the season with one of the premier one-two punches on the mound in either league.

Unfortunately for Chad and the Dodgers, 2011 proved to not be another step forward for Chad. His numbers fell across the board, as he missed fewer bats, allowed more free passes, and saw his home run rate nearly double as his BABIP remained steady with his 2010 mark. While there were undoubtedly games where he was singled to death, as it was put by one Dodger blogger, Bills simply did not perform as well as he is clearly capable of. His tERA, FIP, and SIERA all increased from their 2010 resting places (4.18, 3.83, and 4.26 in 2011, respectively), but most troubling of all were his strikeout and walk ratios. He whiffed a full season low 7.28 opposing batters per nine while walking a full season high of over four per nine.

Bills struggles resulted in a WAR cut in half from the previous year (2.1, down from 4.5) and questions about his mechanics and health. Still shy of his 28th birthday, Billingsley has every chance to rebound, and much like his poor second half of 2009 led to his best professional season, said rebound in 2012 would not be the least surprising to me. In fact, I’ll call it right now, as I fully expect Chad to be productive as Kershaw’s running mate next season, provided he is in fact healthy.

Hiroki Kuroda

Hiroki Kuroda, in perhaps his final season as a Dodger, was once again solid, though he followed Billingsley in having a down year from 2010. His WAR fell from 4.1 to 2.4, his K/9 IP dipped down to 7.17, and he allowed a whopping 24 long balls in over 200 IP.

Again though, at the progressing age of 36 and as a third starter, Hiroki was not the issue. His 4.22 tERA left much to be desired, but his FIP was 3.78 and his SIERA checked in at 3.66, and as always, his control was impeccable (2.18 BB per nine, and a K/BB ratio of over three and a quarter). 13.1% of plate appearances ended in an infield popup, though he induced far fewer ground balls than in 2010 (51.1%/43.2%).

Should this in fact be his last season in Los Angeles, Kuroda departs with a career FIP of 3.55, over three strikeouts for every walk issued, and 12.2 WAR over four seasons. All in all, a very good big league career for the Japanese import, and Kuroda’s consistency will be missed.

Ted Lilly

After coming over from Chicago at the deadline in 2010, Ted Lilly was signed to a ridiculous three year, $33 million dollar deal by Ned Colletti to be a fourth starter. And quite predictably, he flopped in a major way for most of the season. Competing with Matt Kemp to be the second Dodger to go 30/30 in 2011, Lilly couldn’t help himself in allowing home runs and stolen bases at a seemingly record pace. The lefty threw just under 200 innings and allowed 28 home runs and 35 stolen bases, with 4.24 tERA and a FIP of 4.21.

The 35-year-old did end strong, holding opponents to a .169/.250/.293/.543 line over the final two months of the season (though it should be noted he benefited immensely from a .208 BABIP).

Dodger fans have to hope and pray he can be half the man he was from August on, as he still has two years and $22.5 million remaining on his contract, will most likely be the third starter in 2012, and has a full no-trade clause for this upcoming campaign.

Rubby De La Rosa/Nathan Eovaldi

Rubby De La Rosa made his major league debut on May 24th, and would throw 60 and two-thirds innings over 10 starts and three relief appearances before succumbing to Tommy John surgery. The young righty was impressive in his limited exposure, whiffing 60 against 31 walks and displaying a nice collection of four pitches. Out for anywhere from 10 months to over a year, the Dodgers will be without his electric arm as he works his way back to the starting rotation.

With some major league experience and success, excellent swing and miss ability, and a strong minor league track record, if he rebounds from the arm injury, the Dodgers have a potential gem and fixture in the rotation for years to come, as he held opponents to a .225/.306/.364/.670 line with 33 Ks in 35 IP over his final six trips to the hill.

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Nathan Eovaldi replaced De La Rosa in the rotation before being moved to the pen as the season wound down and he reached his innings cap. Eovaldi posted a 4.35 FIP, but struck out just under six per nine while walking just over five per nine. Whether he settles into the rotation or the pen, Nate will need to refine his control and bump his strikeout numbers back up to what they were at a handful of minor league stops, including an 8.65 mark in AA prior to his call-up.

Minor League Strength

The starting rotation is a definite organizational strength for the Blue Crew. Along with young arms we’ve seen, like De La Rosa and Eovaldi, the Dodgers also boast minor league stud Zach Lee, as well as Garrett Gould, Allen Webster, Ralston Cash, 2011 draftee Chris Reed, and even the consistently frustrating Chris Withrow.

The Dodgers have shown the ability to draft and develop starters in abundance, an excellent quality and a testament to the work of Logan White, De Jon Watson, and their respective staffs.

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MLB: The Pirates have hired Dodgers assistant trainer Todd Tomczyk to be their head trainer, which still leaves the Dodgers stuck with Stan “He Looks Fine To Me” Conte.

MLB: Doug Mientkiewicz will be back with the Dodgers as an instructor. I have no real thoughts on this, because I don’t know anything about his coaching ability, and I don’t think anybody else does either.

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MSTI: Mike Petriello parsed through Ned Colletti‘s comments from an interview with Jim Bowden on ESPN. Solid analysis, but the best part by far is the Colletti truth-o-meter.

Beyond The Box Score: Among their 2011 NL West All-Stars are Jamey Carroll at 2B, Matt Kemp in CF, and Clayton Kershaw as the staff’s #1.

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MLB Trade Rumors: Ben Nicholson-Smith talks to Logan White. Don’t leave. Please.

MLB Trade Rumors: Both De Jon Watson and White have been connected to the Orioles vacancy at GM. Ugh.

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True Blue LA: Dodgers released a tentative 2012 Spring Training schedule.

In recent months, the Dodgers front office has made a point of promoting the youth movement to fans. The current transactions (or lack thereof) are supposed to be proof that they are now committed to seeing the youth movement all the way through.

Of course, the problem with this strategy is that Frank McCourt is now using the abundance of youth as an excuse to cut payroll. McCourt is basically advocating that the Dodgers attempt to build the franchise like the Twins and Athletics do. That’s fine and all, but the only reason those franchises do what they do is because they have no money. The Dodgers, on the other hand, do have money, but McCourt would rather invest his profits into Red Sox memorabilia or something.

To me, the surprising thing is that the blogs seem to have granted the Dodgers a pass. Given Ned Colletti’s failures with both free agent signings and trades involving prospects, everybody seems to be satiated by this new conservative ideology of letting the youth develop instead of splurging on free agents.

Unfortunately, this logic just doesn’t hold up. Don’t get me wrong, I’m as big of a proponent of keeping young talent over old declining veterans as anybody. Thing is, that’s not the problem I have with the strategy. The problem I have is that the current abundance of young and cheap talent will be wasted if it’s not taken advantage of when the opportunity presents itself (now). You see, if the Dodgers keep relying on the youth without supplementing the team with good free agents, those young players will be hitting arbitration and free agency soon enough, thus rendering the whole point of the youth movement (to save money) useless.

So what should a big market team with a strong young core do? Easy. Pair the talented youth with some marquee free agents. The Red Sox are a good example of the ideal plan of attack for big market teams, pairing the ability to develop young talent and the ability to wisely spend money on key free agents. Hard to argue with the results, right? Well, unfortunately, the plan relies on having a competent GM, not somebody who wastes 41 million on three useless players.

Part of the reason I hate the job that Ned has done is that he’s been gifted one of the easiest situations for a GM to succeed in and he still can’t accomplish anything. Colletti has been given one of the deepest and most talented youth systems in recent memory, and he can barely sculpt a decent team because of his failures in free agency.

For example, take away all the free agents, and the Dodgers look like this:

C-Russell Martin-4.0 Million (Estimate)
1B-James Loney-0.4 Million
2B-Blake DeWitt-0.4 Million
3B-Free Agent
SS-Free Agent
LF-Free Agent
CF-Matt Kemp-0.4 Million
RF-Andre Ethier-3.0 Million (Estimate)

Total Payroll-15.4 Million Dollars

So even if we assume that McCourt is a cheap bastard (probably is), he has still allotted about 100 million to work with, and Ned would have around 84.6 million dollars to fill six roster spots. Other GMs would be ecstatic at the opportunity to spend a little over 16 million on every position they need to fill. It’s pathetic. The bottom line here is that Colletti has done a joke of a job, and McCourt doesn’t deserve any better than what Ned’s given him.

A further problem is that the influx of youth is not a permanent fixture. If you think about it, in the past three years, the minor league system has produced Matt Kemp, Andre Ethier, James Loney, Blake DeWitt, Chad Billingsley, Clayton Kershaw, Russell Martin, Jonathan Broxton, Hong Chih Kuo, Cory Wade, and James McDonald. It is completely unreasonable to think that the Dodgers can repeat a class like that every three years. As it is, this team has basically been completely constructed over the last few years by Logan White and Kim Ng, with little to no help from Colletti’s free agent deals.

Yet, ironically, when it comes to budgeting enough money to allow continued farm system success, McCourt chooses to handcuff White and Ng with further cheapness. In the past two years, the Dodgers have been outspent by 26 other teams in the draft, and they have stopped being productive in the arena of international signings. Where is the logic in this? Don’t ask me, because I have no idea.

In the short-term, McCourt and Colletti might get away with using the farm system as their crutch. However, refusing to compete in free agency, not pursuing players on the international scene, and cheaping out on draft signings is not a smart long-term solution for major league, minor league, and draft success. The Dodgers might be able to use their farm system to stay afloat over the next few years, but without laying the groundwork for the replenishment of the youth that graduate, it’s a long-term recipe for disaster. In the future, my greatest fear for this franchise is McCourt and Colletti trying to lean heavily on their crutch once again, only to find out it’s no longer there.