The Dodgers finalized a trade today that will send Rubby De La Rosa, Allen Webster, Jerry Sands, James Loney, and Ivan De Jesus to the Red Sox for Adrian Gonzalez, Carl Crawford, Josh Beckett, Nick Punto, and Cash.

I gave my initial reaction to the deal yesterday, but after an in-depth analysis, did anything change?

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Adrian Gonzalez

The Dodgers are paying ~$130 million for six years and a month of his services. Accounting for inflation over the course of the contract, every win will come out to ~$5 million, so the Dodgers are paying for about 26 WAR or 4.2 WAR per year.

Will he be worth it? I’m quite confident he will be, despite issues that others have concerns about.

In 2011 with the Red Sox, he hit .338/.410/.548/.957, posting a ~6.5 WAR season. He got off to a slow start in 2012, however, and thus only has a .300/.343/.469/.812 line. However, he has come on of late, and he projects to finish the year on a .301/.369/.504/.873 tear, so I don’t think he’s at the start of a precipitous decline. The primary concern is that his career 10.7 BB% has dipped to 5.9%, and it will need to rebound for him to live up to his usual standard. With that said, his batting projection puts his OPS around .860 or so, which presumes a gain in walk rate.

His fielding has never been in doubt, as he is a plus defender across all advanced metrics and I don’t think anybody would argue with it. He does lack foot speed though, which is why his baserunning total comes in low.

That’s not to say there’s minimal risk though, which makes sense, since he wouldn’t have been let go otherwise. He’s in his age-30 season right now, and aging curves tell us that he’s likely to regress over the course of his contract, as the mid-30s are generally the danger area. On the upside, I don’t see a reason to be concerned about injuries, as he has never played in less than 156 games in a full season.

Factoring everything above, A-Gon comes out to about a 5 WAR player, and he figures to be worth around 27 WAR after accounting for age regression. While he won’t be providing much surplus value beyond what he’s being paid by the Dodgers, he should be well worth the acquisition, especially considering the barren first base market and the lack of internal options. The A-Gon part of this deal is cause of excitement.

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Carl Crawford

The Dodgers are paying ~$105 million for five years and a month of his services. Accounting for inflation over the course of the contract, every win will come out to ~$5 million, so the Dodgers are paying for about 21 WAR or 4.1 WAR per year.

Unlike A-Gon, where I have trouble seeing how he’s not worth it, I have trouble seeing how Crawford will even get anywhere close to worth it.

For the past two seasons, Crawford has been … uh … a mess. He’s been worth a total of around 0.5 WAR, which needless to say doesn’t bode well for his 4.1 WAR goal. Even if you completely believe that his skills are intact, his body throws a sizable wrench into the equation to say the least, and it doesn’t help then that he may miss a few months of next season. He was projected to post a .283/.323/.446/.769 line for the rest of 2012, which is quite generous since his actual line has been .260/.292/.419/.711 for 2011 and 2012. For the projection, I put him around a .780 OPS, which is almost what he posted in his last few years with the Rays.

On the basepaths, despite his basestealing ability, he’s never been a plus baserunner, but he does clock in on the positive side of the ledger due to his speed. His defense will probably generate the biggest debate, as it was once a plus tool, but it has since regressed to average at best across the advanced metrics due to injury or whatever else. Personally though, I think he should benefit from the bigger spaces in Dodger Stadium, so he should return to form. However, it would be dishonest to just grant him plus status after two clear years of regression, so I made him just good instead of elite.

Like Gonzalez, Crawford is in his age-30 season and will regress over the course of his contract, including the dreaded mid-30s. Unlike Gonzalez, there’s ample reason to worry about Crawford’s health, and his projected playing time reflects that, clocking in at ~550 plate appearances.

Factoring everything above, Crawford comes out to about a 2.9 WAR player, and he figures to be worth around 12 WAR after accounting for age regression.

So he should be worth a bit more than half his contract, and when that contract totals in excess of $100 million that burns quite a bit. Unlike at first base, the options in the outfield, either short-term or long-term, to get better value were plentiful. Therefore, I can’t see how anybody would be excited about taking him on. The “he’s better than Juan Rivera” argument only works for this year because the Dodgers would have options in the offseason, and since Crawford won’t be playing this year there’s really no defense for this. I’m assuming a lot in his favor as it is, and if he’s right he should be a decent player for the team until late in the deal, but he certainly won’t be worth what the Dodgers are paying him unless lighting strikes.

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Josh Beckett

The Dodgers are paying ~$35 million for two years and a month of his services. Accounting for inflation over the course of the contract, every win will come out to ~$4.75 million, so the Dodgers are paying for about 7.5 WAR or 3.5 WAR per year.

I’m actually more confident that Crawford will make meaningful contributions than Beckett for reasons that go beyond statistics, so needless to say, I’m skeptical about him earning his keep.

In 2012, Beckett has a 5.23 ERA, 4.27 FIP, 4.39 xFIP, and 4.28 SIERA. That’s about the profile of Bud Norris of the Astros at the moment … if Norris was set to make $16 million annually.

The reason I only mention 2012 is this report by Kevin Goldstein of Baseball Prospectus:

Goldstein says that Beckett’s 70 fastball has turned into a 55/60. His once-biting curve has lost a similar amount of stuff: Goldstein reports that he would be “leery” of putting a 60 rating on it and might call it a 50-plus. His cutter, he explains, is at best a 40. Given how often he throws it, the cutter could be something of an Achilles’ heel for Beckett going forward.

Goldstein is not terribly optimistic about Beckett’s performance going forward and grades him as a no. 4 or no. 5 starter going forward.

That scouting report is backed by fastball velocity that has dropped from 93.8 MPH for his career to 91.6 MPH, and a strikeout rate that has gone from a career 22.2% to 17.2%. I’m not sure how anybody could reasonably expect him to bounce back to 4-5 WAR levels with that profile.

Like Gonzalez and Crawford, Beckett isn’t young. He’s in his age-32 season, is showing signs of decline, and is under contract into his mid-30s. There’s reason to worry about injury too, as he missed significant time (60-day DL) two years ago with a back strain and was placed on the DL for shoulder inflammation this year. Since he’ll likely only get to ~160 innings this year, I think giving him ~175 is generous enough.

Factoring everything above, Beckett comes out to about a 2.1 WAR player, and he figures to be worth around 4 WAR after accounting for age regression.

Like Crawford, he projects to be worth a bit more than half what he’s being paid, but it burns a lot less because it’s only a two year commitment after 2012. Of course, there’s opportunity cost here as well, because there’s always bargain options that can provide 1.5 to 2.5 WAR for a lot less than what Beckett will be paid, as Chris Capuano and the likes have proven. I suppose there’s upside hidden deep in Beckett’s profile in that maybe he regains his stuff, but I can’t bet on it due to his age. Besides, both his numbers and the scouting match each other, and that’s usually a recipe for accuracy. Hope for the best, but I wouldn’t expect anything better than a #4 starter.

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Nick Punto

The Dodgers are paying ~$2 million for one year and a month of his services. Accounting for inflation over the course of the contract, every win will come out to ~$4.5 million, so the Dodgers are paying for about 0.5 WAR or 0.4 WAR per year.

Don’t think I need a table for this one, as it’s purely to give the Dodgers a utility guy, I believe. Punto is at .200/.301/.272/.573 for 2012 and is projected to hit .229/.327/.271/.598 the rest of the way, which matches his age profile and career hitting ability. He’s above average on the bases and can play second, third, and short, where he grades out as a plus defender at every position.

His value on the bench is contingent on the Dodgers finding guys that can hit because he’s purely a defensive replacement or a spot starter. Still, he’s a solid utility guy because of his defense and versatility. He’ll be serviceable, which is all he’s being paid for, so it should be fine.

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Rubby De La Rosa

As a starter last year, he posted a 3.71 ERA/3.87 FIP/3.55 xFIP/3.85 SIERA with a 23.6 K% and a 12.2 BB% before succumbing to Tommy John surgery. After rehabbing for a year, he’s back and so is the velocity, so it seems the only thing lost was a year of development. Regardless, he has plus velocity and two potential swing-and-miss off-speed pitches in the change and slider. He’s rotation quality right now, and with command improvement, I don’t see why he couldn’t be a #2 or #3 rotation option.

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Allen Webster

After being demoted to the bullpen early in 2012, he may now be every bit the prospect that Rubby or Zach Lee is for the reasons Kevin Goldstein of Baseball Prospectus details here:

“It’s all there,” said a National League scout who was taken off his coverage to see the team. “When everything is going, he has three average-to-plus pitches and knows what to do with them.” The scout noted that Webster’s game has matured, as well. “He knows he has a really good—and potentially special—changeup, but he’s not over-relying on it anymore,” the scout explained. “It’s like he finally figured out that setting that pitch up with 92-94 mph heat is the best way to go about it, and his curveball has improved as well. He used to get over the ball and it wouldn’t finish, but now it’s breaking through the zone much better.”

His ceiling seems to be in the #2 range as well, with #3 to #4 a more likely destination. He should test the waters at the MLB level this year, and could be ready in 2013.

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Jerry Sands

For his career, his line at AAA Albuquerque is .291/.363/.557/.921 … but it’s Albuquerque. Still, I like his chances of becoming a major league contributor, though I’m not sure he’ll be worthy of holding down a left field spot for a team like the Red Sox. There’s a shot he becomes a regular, but I see him as more of a platoon guy or temporary starter as opposed to a long-term fit there.

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Ivan De Jesus

A .301/.354/.416/.770 line at Albuquerque paired with his .231/.282/.277/.559 career line with the Dodgers doesn’t bode well for him. Furthermore, while he can play second, short, and third, he’s only above average at second, so I’m not sure he even fits as a utility guy.

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James Loney

He’s been worth 0 to -1 WAR this season while making $6.5 million and he’s a free agent to be. Bye.

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So the Dodgers are paying ~$272 million to get the four mentioned players from the Red Sox, and the Red Sox will be kicking in about ~$12 million back to the Dodgers. So the team is paying for ~55 WAR of production, but is getting about ~43 WAR in value (~$212 million). As such, just by taking on the contracts alone, they figure to be looking at a surplus value around -$50 million. Then factor in the two top prospects, one solid prospect, a fringe prospect, and the corpse of James Loney, and you’re looking at quite a deficit to overcome, especially if any of them develop and hit their ceilings.

On the other hand, this undoubtedly makes the Dodgers better in the short-term, perhaps by as much as 7 or 8 wins in 2013. It should solidify the squad as a playoff favorite for this year and the next two years, perhaps even longer than that, depending on the decline phases of Crawford/Gonzalez.

While I understand that fans are excited by the prospects of that immediate improvement, I just have to wonder whether the Dodgers couldn’t do better if given ~$260 million to spend and the prospect package in question. Of the players received, only Adrian Gonzalez really fills a hole that couldn’t have been addressed in either 2013 or 2014. Then there’s the potential problems with payroll flexibility and the luxury tax that I’ve mentioned before. Also, as you can see through Jay Jaffe‘s work here, they’re really hemmed up in the short-term payroll-wise, and they now have $90 million sewn up in four players through 2017, which unfortunately doesn’t even include Clayton Kershaw yet.

As such, fans should surely enjoy the ride this year and in the immediate future, but it’s easy to justify significant concern over the long-term future of the roster, as all the risk in this deal is being taken by the Dodgers.

Hanley Ramirez‘s agent Adam Katz told Tim Brown of Yahoo! Sports that his client is thrilled:

Hanley agent Adam Katz:”If he was going to be moved then this was his first choice. He can’t wait to get here, compete, do what’s asked.”

— Tim Brown (@TBrownYahoo) July 25, 2012

Well, at least the most important guy likes the trade.

Mike Scioscia’s Tragic Illness: Mike Petriello likes the deal for the Dodgers.

So for the price of a decent pitching prospect, a low-level minor leaguer, and giving Miami salary relief, the Dodgers have filled two huge holes. If Ramirez doesn’t get his mojo back, then this is probably a win/win for both sides, since even a lessened Ramirez is superior to Uribe and Miami gets Eovaldi and out from Ramirez’ salary. If Hanley rebounds to be something like what he was before – and at 28, there’s still time for him to do so – then this becomes a massive steal for the Dodgers.

It’ll be a while before we know how this turns out, because it could be years until we see what Eovaldi really turns into. Today, on the morning of the deal, I can at least say something I don’t really get to say too often around here: good job, Ned. This isn’t a slam dunk deal, but with everything considered, it is one that is absolutely worth making.

Feelin’ Kinda Blue: Chad Moriyama‘s own Dustin Nosler loves the trade.

So, the Dodgers gave up a couple talented arms for a former and potential superstar (seems weird to write that). The Dodgers were able to use their best asset — deep pockets — to make this deal happen. It seemed the Dodgers weren’t going to be able to swing a deal or acquire a decent player without giving up Zach Lee. However, they found middle ground with the Marlins and were able to absorb all the money, allowing them to acquire Ramirez.

And by moving Eovaldi, the Dodgers are almost a lock to trade for a starting pitcher (*cough* Ryan Dempster *cough*) before Tuesday’s trade deadline.

I absolutely love this deal and I still can’t believe it happened. I wish Eovaldi and McGough all the luck in the world, but the Dodgers got the better end of this deal.

Marlins Daily: Dave Gershman doesn’t think the Dodgers package was worth Hanley Ramirez.

A weird start to the day here on the East Coast, and who knows, it could get weirder if the Marlins continue unloaded pieces whom they don’t see as part of their future plans. For now this one deserves to soak in. Eovaldi is a guy with hard stuff which includes an explosive fastball, something of a potential #2 or #3, I’d say, but I don’t think he’s worth Hanley Ramirez.

FanGraphs: Jack Moore points out that the Dodgers needed to improve and they did.

This Hanley Ramirez is no longer a superstar, but he fills the holes of the Los Angeles Dodgers nearly perfectly. If the Dodgers are going to make a run at the playoffs, they need contributions from the left side of their infield, and Ramirez makes that a possibility again.

Baseball Prospectus: Colin Wyers, Kevin Goldstein, and R.J. Anderson analyze the pieces in the trade.

If Hanley’s upside is a return to something approaching his All-Star years and his downside is puttering along at around league average, the Dodgers have made a gamble they simply can’t lose. Don Mattingly is going to have his own version of Sophie’s choice to make when Gordon returns: “You can lose Juan Uribe or Dee Gordon from your lineup. Pick one and only one.” But either way, the Dodgers have improved their lineup over what it was yesterday.

Sports Illustrated: Cliff Corcoran offered a rare negative take on the Dodgers side of things.

Ramirez has now hit .245/.328/.405 (.249 GPA) in 776 plate appearances over the last two seasons combined. That is not a $15-million-per-year player. That, plus his poor fielding (by the advanced stats, which are generally in agreement, he grades out as every bit as much of a liability in the field at third base as he was at shortstop), means he is not a player who is going to single-handedly put the Dodgers into the playoffs.

Even the diminished Ramirez will be an upgrade over the production Los Angeles has been getting from the left side of the infield (it’s not yet known where he’ll play for the Dodgers). There’s also the “change of scenery” fantasy. The last imagines that getting away from manager Ozzie Guillen, with whom he butted heads, and from a team on which he was literally pushed aside by a new $106 million bauble named Jose Reyes, who has been no more valuable than Ramirez this season, could give Ramirez a fresh start that would rejuvenate his bat. That, however, is wishful thinking, not sound decision-making.

Ken Rosenthal and Jon Paul Morosi of Fox Sports reported that the Dodgers have agreed to trade Nate Eovaldi and Scott McGough to the Marlins for Hanley Ramirez and Randy Choate.

Surprised? So is basically everybody else.

The Miami Marlins’ shocking midseason rebuild continued with a blockbuster trade after 2 a.m. ET Wednesday: They sent mercurial star Hanley Ramirez and left-handed reliever Randy Choate to the Dodgers for young pitchers Nathan Eovaldi and Scott McGough, according to major-league sources.

The trade will have lasting ramifications for the entire National League. The Dodgers, 2 1/2 games behind the archrival Giants in the West, made clear their intent to reach the postseason in their first year under new ownership. The trade amounted to a show of financial might for the Dodgers; Ramirez, 28, is earning $15 million this season, and no cash was included in the deal.

I previously gave my general thoughts on the trade here, and upon further review of the numbers and the circumstances, I still feel similar, but with a tad bit more apprehension.

Hanley Ramirez

As a 22-year-old in 2006, Hanley won the National League Rookie Of The Year Award with an .833 OPS. In the three seasons following that, he posted a line of .325/.398/.549/.947 as a shortstop, deservingly attaining superstar billing. Starting in 2010 though, he saw his production decline and controversy over his hustle erupt. While he posted a still elite .853 OPS at the SS position, he was no longer one of the best hitters in the league.

Suffering from a shoulder injury and general ineffectiveness in 2011, he missed half the year and performed woefully below his standards when he was healthy. That trend continues into 2012, as he has now posted a .245/.328/.405/.732 line in his last 184 games. Making matters worse, he recently has been suffering from an infected hand … basically because he forgot to take medication for it.

With a bat that puts him around league average as a hitter, he would still be quite valuable at both SS and 3B if he could field his position. Unfortunately, using any metric you want, Hanley is not an average defender. For his career at shortstop, he averages -12.1 runs via Plus/Minus, -9.1 runs via UZR, and -11.8 runs via FRAA. In other words, he’s a bad defender there. In 2012, he moved to 3B but hasn’t shown to be any better there. He’s on pace for -17.1 runs via Plus/Minus, -11.2 runs via UZR, and -22.7 runs via FRAA at the hot corner. To be kind about it, he’s a mediocre defender no matter where he has played.

As I said though, he’ll be an improvement for the Dodgers at either position almost no matter what:

Regardless of what position he ends up playing, Hanley figures to be a gigantic improvement over the unholy combination of Juan Uribe, Dee Gordon, Adam Kennedy, Elian Herrera, and Luis Cruz. The production the Dodgers are getting from both 3B and SS is just terrible, and it’s not like they were playing quality defense either, so Hanley’s questionable glove shouldn’t burn the team too often.

Then there’s the issue of his contract. The Dodgers are paying him ~$40 million for two years and two months of his service, which puts ~7.5 WAR as the target where the Dodgers can get fair value just for what they have to pay him. At his peak, this would be a complete no-brainer, as he could put up a 7.5 WAR season in a single year; he was that great of a hitter. Now though? He’s amassed a little over ~2 WAR in 2011 and 2012 combined. Performing at levels similar to this, he’s a 2-3 WAR player, which would make the trade a poor deal for the Dodgers.

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Hanley is still an elite talent though, and the Dodgers took a risk in a market where elite talents are almost impossible to acquire without dropping a 10-year contract on them.

While nagging injuries is just one of the many explanations I’ve heard for Hanley’s decline, luck can also have an effect. Ramirez never posted a BABIP below .327 prior to 2011, but then posted a .275 BABIP in 2011 and has a .271 BABIP this year. It doesn’t explain away all of his poor performance, but even regression back to .310 or so would make him a well above average player again, so there’s reason to think that Ned Colletti bought low here (yes, you read that correctly).

Furthermore, in the context of the Dodgers current roster and farm system at SS and 3B, the team clearly can’t fill those positions internally, so Hanley being average there is worth more to the Dodgers than it might be to others. This is especially true due to the almost non-existent free agent market at those positions in the coming years.

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The Dodgers made this trade with the expectation that Hanley would do a lot more than he currently is, and he’ll have to be better just to make the trade fair for both sides. The Dodgers are banking that he can regain his old form with a change of scenery, a change of coaching staff, and perhaps a refreshed attitude. It’s far from impossible for him, as finding just one of those things can do wonders for a player.

Just ask Matt Kemp.

Randy Choate

Choate is a lefty reliever making $1.5 million this year and he will be a free agent at the end of 2012. He’s pitching well thus far, posting a 2.49 ERA, 2.35 FIP, 3.11 xFIP, and 2.68 SIERA. More importantly though, he’s dominating lefties to the tune of a .150/.200/.183/.383 line. It’s no fluke either, as lefties have hit .203/.277/.285/.562 off Choate over his career.

Is he an impact player? No, but he fills a need that the Dodgers have been seeking out since the start of Spring Training. Scott Elbert has been effective as the bullpen’s only lefty, but lefties have a .325 wOBA off him compared to a .251 wOBA for righties. That creates a problem for the Dodgers when they need a matchup lefty late in the game, and Choate fills that role for the team perfectly.

Nate Eovaldi

Over his 91 innings in the MLB, he has posted a 3.96 ERA and 4.18 FIP. As a player that can contribute to the Marlins immediately, he can already be seen as a ~2 WAR type of pitcher. Given that he has about five years of team control left after 2012, there’s no doubt he’s a valuable commodity.

As far as upside goes, I don’t think he’s done anything to acquit himself of the #3 label I gave him back in March, as he’s still fastball dominant with lagging off-speed pitches. However, he’s a productive, cheap player that’s one adjustment away from approaching his ceiling.

Despite his value, the Dodgers trading an arm like him makes sense:

From the Dodgers perspective though, they have a ton of arms in the system, and with both Rubby De La Rosa and Ted Lilly due back soon, plus a potential trade for Ryan Dempster/Matt Garza, Nate was an understandably expendable piece.

The surplus of arms in the system made him expendable if the Dodgers could get a quality return … and they did.

Scott McGough

I wrote about him back in February and nothing has changed since then, in my opinion.

I haven’t seen him get much attention but I liked him at the University Of Oregon and I think he has a chance at a bullpen role down the road. Sitting 91-93 and touching 95, there’s plenty of velocity to make it to the show. However, his low-80s slurve will need to improve, not so much the command like most young pitchers, but the break itself needs to be sharper or it’ll get hammered as he moves levels.

Or if you don’t believe me, then Kevin Goldstein posted a similar report a few hours back.

A fifth-round pick in 2011, McGough is an intriguing relief prospect who still has plenty to work on. At six feet tall and with a slight build, he’s on the small side, but he has an incredibly fast arm capable of firing 93-95-mph fastballs that touch 97, although there is some effort in his delivery. His command and control is no better than average, and his ultimate role as either a late-inning reliever or just another bullpen piece will come down to the development of his slider. He’ll flash a plus one with heavy break, but it’s a rarity, as he has a tendency to overthrow the pitch and has trouble keeping it in the strike zone.

I think McGough can contribute for the Marlins in the bullpen with some development, but I don’t see him as an elite arm that would fit as a closer or such. Therefore, I don’t mind his inclusion in the deal.

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At the current level of production for all the players involved, the Dodgers are paying around $40 million for about 6 WAR and are trading 8-10 WAR (Eovaldi) or more plus potentially six years of a solid reliever (McGough) to the Marlins. That reality is why the trade is a significant risk on the part of the Dodgers.

Even taking that into consideration though, the temptation of Hanley’s upside chart is what makes this deal. It represents what could happen if Hanley does round back into form (~15 WAR), and it’s significant because the Dodgers will then have managed to pick up a rare elite talent in a market that’s a bit bare at the moment.

So with money to burn and the Dodgers having no internal answers, the gamble seems to be worth taking.

Well, this came out of nowhere, huh?

I saw the articles on Yasiel Puig being declared a free agent and I figured that the Dodgers might be interested due to their desired goal of returning to the international market, but none of the rumors had the Dodgers as players.

So much for that, as according to Jesse Sanchez, the Dodgers have apparently signed the 21-year-old Cuban to a seven-year deal worth $42 million.

According to an industry source, the Dodgers have agreed to a seven-year deal worth $42 million with 21-year-old international prospect Yasiel Puig, a 6-foot-3, 210-pound outfielder from Cuba.

The Dodgers haven’t commented on or confirmed the signing.

Puig (pronounced Pweeg) was declared a free agent Wednesday, not long after establishing temporary residency in Mexico, and was eventually cleared by the U.S. Department of Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC).

In order to avoid being subject to new CBA guidelines that will limit spending on international prospects to $2.9 million per team without penalty, Puig must sign the record-setting deal, have the contract approved by Major League Baseball and pass a physical before Monday.

A top prospect in the island’s premier league, the Cuban National Series (Serie Nacional), Puig hit .276 with five home runs during his first campaign with Cienfuegos in 2008-09 and had a breakout year the next season, hitting .330 with 17 home runs and 78 RBIs. He did not play for Cienfuegos during the 2011-12 seasons because he was being disciplined for attempting to defect.

Puig, a member of the country’s national team, is the latest high-profile Cuban player to sign with a Major League club. Outfielders Yoenis Cespedes signed a four-year $36 million deal with the A’s in mid-February, and Jorge Soler signed a nine-year, $30 million deal with the Cubs earlier this month. Left-handed pitcher Omar Luis Rodriguez signed a Minor League deal worth $4 million with the Yankees last week, and fellow lefty Gerardo Concepcion signed a five-year, $6 million deal with the Cubs in early February.

J.P. Breen at FanGraphs wrote a profile on him when he was declared a free agent.

Now, statistics from the Cuban Serie Nacional should obviously be taken with a grain of salt. The level of competition is perhaps not even comparable to what Puig would potentially see in Triple-A, but legitimate similarities exist between the numbers Yoenis Cespedes compiled in 2010-2011 and what Puig racked up in the same year.

The obvious difference is the significantly higher home run total from Cespedes. It’s that level of power that has allowed Cespedes to transition directly to the major leagues and post a .222 ISO as a 26-year-old without any experience in the United States.

The remainder of the numbers — the on-base percentage, strikeout-to-walk ratio, etc. — are comparable. Even the doubles are comparable. Puig reportedly has above-average speed and was once considered the “fastest player in Cuban baseball” before defecting, so it’s not overly surprising that Puig would collect more triples than Cespedes.

He followed that up with an article today after the signing.

Puig’s Cuban numbers back up the possession of a solid hit tool (just 39 strikeouts in 327 at-bats) as well as discipline (49 walks) and power (.251 ISO), at least as far as international statistics can. Clay Davenport roughly compared Cuban baseball to Class Low-A, and Puig’s numbers at age 19 (he didn’t play in 2010-2011 due to discipline over his attempts to defect) would be impressive there.

Speed is speed, and Puig hit six triples with his Cuban team but also was thrown out in four of his nine stolen base attempts. Evaluation of Puig’s defense will be toughest of all. Workouts can show raw ability, but they may not show the kind of reactions and decision-making necessary to defend at the MLB level.

It may seem rash to commit $42 million to a player with no first-hand knowledge of how he plays in games. But, given Heyman’s note that the Dodgers weren’t the high bidder (at least in terms of gross dollar amount; it’s possible a team offered more years and a lower average salary), it appears less that the Dodgers were smitten by one great workout and more that there is something legitimately enticing about the player. At least one scout has noted his power as “not quite Giancarlo Stanton or Bryce Harper, but close.”

Ben Badler of Baseball America noted that seeing him in person has been difficult and reports have not been overly positive.

Reports from scouts on 21-year-old Cuban corner outfielder Yasiel Puig have been underwhelming. The Rangers have been the only team linked to Puig, though their senior-level decision makers were not in attendance at his recent workout in Mexico, where teams have reported that his conditioning appears to be an issue. Teams have no performance data or game video to work off from Puig in more than a year because he was suspended for the 2011-12 season in Serie Nacional. The last time any scouts could have legally evaluated Puig was in June 2011 in Rotterdam, where scouts seemed lukewarm at best on him. He’s shown plus raw power and hit well in Cuba for a year before his suspension, but there are question marks about both his bat and his rawness in the outfield. How Puig could have acquired permanent Mexican residency documents after having been in the country for what’s believed to be less than a month is also a widespread question, though Major League Baseball has yet to declare him a free agent.

Upon being declared a free agent, he repeated the point.

Reports on Puig, 21, have been modest, and other than a few light workouts this weekend, teams are working off limited information. He was suspended this past season in Cuba—some sources believe it was due to his attempts to leave the country, though some teams have conflicting information—so scouts haven’t been able to see Puig in game condition since June 2011 for the Cuban national B team at the World Port Tournament in Rotterdam. The Rangers are the only team that Baseball America’s sources have linked to Puig.

“How can we evaluate someone like that?” asked one Latin American director.

Kevin Goldstein of Baseball Prospectus chimed in with basically the same report. We don’t know much.

His workout in Mexico was really just an extended batting practice, as he never ran and barely did anything in the outfield. His previous attempts to defect left him on the sidelines in last season’s Serie National in Cuba, so overall, he just hasn’t been seen that much. Puig has plus-plus raw power, but reviews on every other tool vary wildly for the 21-year-old. Some think he has speed, some think he’s merely an average runner, and there are definite concerns about the stiffness of his swing and a history of swing-and-miss. No matter what exactly he is, talk of this as a desperation move to help a woeful Dodgers offense seems more than a bit foolhardy, and the Dodgers have to get him into the country first, and they’ll be lucky to get six weeks of minor league time out of someone who has barely played the game in the past 12 months.

Speaking of upside, Danny Knobler of CBSSports relays this:

One scout on Puig: “You see him on the right day, he could be Vladimir Guerrero.”

— DKnobler (@DKnobler) June 28, 2012

Could probably say the same for a lot of inconsistent/toolsy players.

Keith Law of ESPN furthers the skepticism.

Based on what I’ve heard about Puig, this is a bizarre overreaction to the upcoming international spending cap, and a huge bet that, despite a stiff swing and less athletic body than Soler, Puig’s bat is good enough to justify an investment of this size. I’ve also heard that Puig was badly out of shape in his recent workouts in Mexico, and that his throwing arm is not as strong since it was last seen in games. And unlike Soler or Cespedes, Puig barely has played in games outside of Cuba, so major league scouts have not had much of an opportunity to evaluate him properly.

Yeah.

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So basically, we shouldn’t get too excited about the fact that he signed such a massive deal, as it’s less indicative of his actual talent, and more indicative of the rules under the new CBA.

I don’t see any way this isn’t an overpay in the end, but if the Dodgers have this type of money to take a shot in the dark with, perhaps that’s an overall net positive. I just hope they haven’t spent this simply to make a statement and have it take out of the 2013 budget.

Furthermore, Dodgers scouts have a good track record with international signings … which is why I’m worried about this one, because apparently Dodgers scouts haven’t seen him play or do anything.

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ESPN‘s Kiley McDaniel says Dodgers first rounder Corey Seager has All-Star upside.

McDaniel: The Dodgers pop Corey Seager here, the brother of Mariners third baseman Kyle Seager, but Corey is bigger and more physical than his brother. Corey could be a tough sign here with a strong commitment to South Carolina, but you have to think the Dodgers are confident they can get him signed. Seager is a very projectable athlete that plays shortstop now but projects to move to third base, where his above-average hands, smooth feet and plus arm will make him an above-average defender. He shows an advanced feel for hitting with a sweet swing from the left side and average present raw power that could be plus as he fills out his broad shoulders, giving him All-Star upside if he develops as scouts project.

ESPN‘s Scouts Inc. agrees.

Seager has All-Star upside as a power-hitting third baseman who should offer plus defense at the position once he moves off shortstop.

The younger brother of current Seattle Mariners infielder Kyle Seager, Corey is bigger at 18 than Kyle is today, so he’s likely to outgrow short as he fills out. He’s athletic and has great hands and an above-average arm, so he has a very good chance to end up offering plus defense overall. He’s an above-average runner who might drop to average when his body matures, but should retain that athleticism.

Seager’s swing has great hip rotation and he can drive the ball to the opposite field. He loads with his hands a little deep, not quite a full bar but enough to create some length to the ball, and keeps his weight back well, which allows him drive the ball the other way. If Seager will sign — he has a strong commitment to South Carolina — he should go in the last half of the first round, and I wouldn’t be at all surprised to see him go before pick 20. In the event that he doesn’t sign, he’s got a good chance to become a top-five pick in 2015.

As far as him signing goes, Baseball Prospectus‘ Kevin Goldstein thinks he’ll require more than the allotted $1.95 million.

The Dodgers seemed to be focused on high school arms, but made a statement with Seager, who has a rumored price tag well over the slot of $1.95 million here. This is the first good sign for Dodgers fans about how things will work under new ownership.

As far as speculation that he will be a third baseman as a professional, Logan White doesn’t see what the rush is to move him off the position.

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Second round pick Steven Rodriguez could move quickly.

“I never try to put too much of a timeline on them, because a lot of times when guys make it to the Major Leagues, it’s based on club need and where ballclubs are at,” White said. “But I can certainly see him battling for a job here toward the end of the next year or the following year, because he’s that polished and he has that good of stuff.”

Rodriguez is considered by MLB.com Draft expert Jonathan Mayo as the prospect most likely to first arrive in the big leagues after Blue Jays first-round selection Marcus Stroman.

Rodriguez is the sort of polished veteran college pitcher that can jump into professional baseball and move up the ranks faster than most, White said.

Honestly, I don’t get what the rush is to get a contributing arm in the bullpen. It’s the one area I’m fairly confident that the Dodgers are deep at.

Perhaps they’ve completely lost confidence in Scott Elbert or something? Because this seemed like a pick for need more than best player available, despite what he says.

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Third round pick Onelkis Garcia is said to want seven million dollars to sign, but Kevin Goldstein of Baseball Prospectus doesn’t see him getting it.

The Dodgers take Onelki Garcia, last year’s weird Cuba story. He said he wants $7 million, he’s not going to get $7 million.

— Kevin Goldstein (@Kevin_Goldstein) June 5, 2012

Seems unfair that he’s stuck in the draft, but as long as he is, there’s no way he’s getting that type of money. That’s a first pick overall slot.

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Baseball Prospect Report has a profile on 8th round pick Scott Griggs.

When you spend two years behind Cole and Bauer, you pray for those Sundays. His media guide bio will do all the basic work for you. He finally got to me on a recent Saturday. What you have here is a good right-handed arm coming high 3/4 with a fastball 92-94, 95 on the faster hair dryers that scouts who want their names on guys prefer, and a solid average breaking ball at 80-82, good rotation and movement, bite. Thank you very much, a college pitcher with a second pitch I trusted, even though it was in a short look. Griggs isn’t terribly pretty the way he lands and perhaps on the pro side his delivery can be slowed down just a tad to get a little bit better control and consistency going. But he’s got the stuff and he’s got the downhill, which you gotta have coming out of college if you’re going to survive.

The Los Angeles Dodgers selected Corey Seager with the 18th overall pick in the 2012 MLB Draft. I mentioned him as a player I liked in the preview I posted earlier today, and the Dodgers made the SS (future 3B) out of Northwest Cabarrus High School in North Carolina their top man. His brother, Kyle Seager, is the current starting third baseman for the Seattle Mariners.

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Baseball America ranked him as the #19 prospect in the draft and had this to say about him:

The younger brother of Mariners third baseman Kyle Seager, Corey has been on scouts’ radar for a couple of years, but he started moving up draft boards this spring. He has a big, physical frame at 6-foot-3, 205 pounds with plenty of strength. He plays shortstop now and is a good defender, but scouts see him shifting to third base as a pro, where he could provide above-average defense. A lefthanded hitter, he has a simple swing and can go the other way with power. The game comes easy to him and scouts find it easy to see his upside, considering his brother was a third-round pick out of North Carolina and made the big leagues after just 279 minor league at-bats. The younger Seager has a strong commitment to South Carolina, but is likely to be picked in the first round.

Kevin Goldstein of Baseball Prospectus had him ranked at #23.

Who he is: A bigger and more powerful version of his brother Kyle, who’s an infielder with the Mariners. Corey projects as a third baseman as a pro, but has good athleticism for his size to go with soft hands and a good arm. Like Kyle, he’s a plus hitter with a knack for contact, but his size gives him considerably more power potential.

Jonathan Mayo of MLB.com had him at #22.

His brother, Kyle, reached the Major Leagues in Seattle in 2011. This Seager has the chance to be just as good, if not better.

Corey Seager has some serious bat speed and shows the ability to make consistent hard contact. He’ll often use more of a two-strike approach, which minimizes strikeouts, but he did start showing the ability to drive the ball more over the course of the summer. He’s not a runner and the lack of speed may necessitate a move to third at the next level. He does have excellent instincts defensively, with plenty of arm for whatever infield position he ends up at.

With plus instincts and excellent pure hitting skills, not to mention those bloodlines, Seager will be followed closely this spring. He could move up charts if he continues to show the ability to be more aggressive and drive the ball more consistently.

Keith Law of ESPN gave this scouting report back on April 27th.

Shortstop Corey Seager, of Northwest Cabarrus High School in Concord, N.C., has seen his stock rise during the past few weeks to the point where he’s seen as a likely first-rounder, a future plus third baseman who should hit and grow into power.

Seager, younger brother of current Seattle Mariners infielder Kyle Seager, is bigger at 18 (6-foot3, 200 pounds) than Kyle is today, and while he’s playing short now, he’s very likely to outgrow it as he fills out. He’s athletic and has great hands and at least a 6 arm, so he could be plus at third base in time. He’s an above-average runner who might drop to average when his body matures, but he should retain that athleticism.

Seager’s swing has great hip rotation, and he can drive the ball to the opposite field. He loads with his hands a little deep, not quite a full bar but enough to create some length to the ball, and keeps his weight back well, which allows him drive the ball the other way.

Personally, I like the pick because he’s an upside bat that just happens to fill a gaping hole in the Dodgers system.

Well, this got here in a hurry, huh?

All of a sudden, the first round of the 2012 MLB Draft is upon us. The Los Angeles Dodgers have $5,202,800 to spend on their 11 total picks, and the team has two picks today: 18th overall and 51st overall.

Mock drafts have been done all over the place, so I thought it would be worthwhile to take a look at the team’s potential draft picks.

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#18 Overall

Ty Hensley – RHP – Santa Fe High School – Oklahoma

Jonathan Mayo of MLB.com has the Dodgers taking Hensley.

18. Los Angeles Dodgers: Ty Hensley, Santa Fe HS (Okla.)

A number of high school pitchers could come into play here, with Hensley being the one most often mentioned with the Dodgers. This could also be a landing spot for Cecchini should the Mets not take him.

So does Keith Law of ESPN.

Ty Hensley, RHP, Edmond (Okla.) Santa Fe H.S.

I’m suddenly not hearing much else here. Hensley has size, arm strength and projection, but his command is below that of the other top prep arms.

As does Jim Callis of Baseball America.

18. DODGERS. After using its last nine top draft choices on a pitcher, Los Angeles appears headed down that route again. It’s difficult to project picks this deep in the first round with much certainty, but a lot of industry insiders are convinced the Dodgers will take Hensley.

Projected Pick: TY HENSLEY.

Baseball America has him ranked as the #23 prospect in the draft.

The Cardinals made Mike Hensley the 53rd overall selection in the 1988 draft, and his son Ty will beat him by about 30 picks this June. While several of this draft crop’s high school righthanders have been injured or regressed this spring, Hensley has done nothing but help his cause. The 6-foot-5, 220-pounder has sat at 92-95 mph and touched 96-97 with his fastball all season–and it’s not even his best pitch. That would be a 12-to-6 curveball that he spins in the upper 70s. Hensley’s command isn’t as impressive as his pure stuff, and he still needs to add some life and work down in the zone more often with his fastball. Before his velocity spiked, he showed a promising changeup as a sophomore, but he hasn’t needed it this spring. A quality athlete, Hensley played quarterback at Santa Fe High before giving up football before his senior year. He’s also a power-hitting switch-hitter who could get the opportunity to play both way in the unlikely event that he follows through on his commitment to the University of Mississippi.

A high school right-handed pitcher with bloodlines, power stuff, and command questions?

Yeah, he’s tailor-made for Logan White‘s tastes.

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Gavin Cecchini – SS – Barbe High School – Louisiana

John Sickels of Minor League Ball has the Dodgers going with a position player here.

Cecchini is one of the best high school fielders and should hit enough to be a very good pick for the Dodgers.

Baseball America has him ranked as the #16 prospect in the draft.

Cecchini’s family occupies a unique place in Louisiana baseball, as his father and mother both coached him and his older brother Garin at Barbe High. Garin signed with the Red Sox for a $1.31 million bonus as a fourth-round pick in 2010. Gavin is likely to be drafted higher, in the first round, even though he’s not as physical and his bat is much more in question. Wiry at 6-foot-1, 185 pounds, Cecchini’s best attributes are his steadiness and defensive skills at shortstop. He has good hands and feet as well as the infield actions to stay at short, and excels at cutoff throws and being in the right spot defensively. His arm strength is a tick above-average and unfailingly accurate. His speed is about the same and plays up like his arm–he’s a skilled baserunner who takes extra bases and steals bases intelligently. Cecchini’s bat involves some projection, though. Some scouts believe he will be a bottom-of-the-order hitter despite his polished approach because of a lack of strength and impact bat speed. Cecchini is one of the safer bets in the high school class due to his polish, but scouts are mixed on his true upside.

While a position player would be a nice change of pace, it would be great if they could take a thumper just once, instead of having to rely on a defender to evolve as a hitter.

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Michael Wacha – RHP – Texas A&M University

Marc Hulet of FanGraphs has the Dodgers going with a college arm.

18. Los Angeles Dodgers: Michael Wacha, RHP, Texas A&M – Wacha’s arm is not as dynamic as the college arms at the top of this list but he knows how to pitch and flashes two very good pitches in a low-90s moving fastball and plus changeup. He has both a slider and a curveball but both are inconsistent. He has a big, strong pitcher’s frame.

Kevin Goldstein of Baseball Prospectus has him going to the Dodgers as well.

18. Los Angeles Dodgers ($1.95M): Michael Wacha, RHP, Texas A&M

I just have to get Wacha off the board here, as he’s expected by many to go in the early teens. The Dodgers have been primarily attached to high school arms like Ty Hensley and Lucas Sims, but a quick return might appeal to new ownership looking to make a mark.

Baseball America ranks him as the eighth best prospect in the draft.

After the consensus top three college pitchers (Stanford’s Mark Appel, Louisiana State’s Kevin Gausman, San Francisco’s Kyle Zimmer) go off the board, Wacha could be the next one selected. He owns the best changeup in the draft, a pitch that can be devastating when he sets it up with a 90-93 mph fastball that peaks at 96. His command also is as good as any pitcher in this crop, as is his competitiveness. He also has an athletic 6-foot-6, 200-pound frame and delivers his pitches on a tough angle to the plate. The only thing keeping him from being considered on the top tier of college arms is the lack of a plus breaking ball. Wacha made progress with a slider last summer under the tutelage of Team USA pitching coach Rob Walton, and he also throws a curveball. Wacha generally sticks with whichever breaking pitch is working best on a given day. Both pitches can get loose at times and project as no better than average at the big league level. Despite that one shortcoming, he still could find his way into the first 10 picks. He may not have the ceiling of Appel, Gausman or Zimmer, but Wacha has a higher floor.

Would be an odd pick to me, since the Dodgers have nothing but arms, and he seems like a #3 or a #4 in the majors if things pan out.

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Courtney Hawkins – OF – Carroll High School – Texas

Baseball America has him ranked as the 15th best prospect in the draft.

Scouts have coveted Hawkins since his performance as a sophomore in the 2010 Texas 5-A state playoffs. He bombed a ball into the upper-deck home run porch at Round Rock’s Dell Diamond, then earned MVP honors in the clincher as a starting pitcher. Though he can run his fastball into the low 90s, he definitely will make his living in the batter’s box. Hawkins is loaded with bat speed and uses his 6-foot-3, 210-pound frame to generate exceptional leverage from the right side of the plate. He’ll need to tame his maximum-effort swing, stop sitting on fastballs and improve his pitch recognition. He’ll rack up some strikeouts, though they’ll be a worthwhile tradeoff for his home runs. More physical than most high school players, Hawkins also brings a plus arm and solid speed to the table. A center fielder in high school, he’ll likely wind up in right field as a pro. Scouts praise his instincts and makeup as well as his tools. He’s the most talented member of a University of Texas recruiting class that features the five best high school prospects in the state, and a lock to sign as a mid-first-round pick.

Just a personal preference, as I would like to see the team take a shot on a thumper for once, as the system is almost completely devoid of upside bats.

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Corey Seager – 3B – Cabarrus High School – North Carolina

Baseball America has him ranked #19 in the draft.

The younger brother of Mariners third baseman Kyle Seager, Corey has been on scouts’ radar for a couple of years, but he started moving up draft boards this spring. He has a big, physical frame at 6-foot-3, 205 pounds with plenty of strength. He plays shortstop now and is a good defender, but scouts see him shifting to third base as a pro, where he could provide above-average defense. A lefthanded hitter, he has a simple swing and can go the other way with power. The game comes easy to him and scouts find it easy to see his upside, considering his brother was a third-round pick out of North Carolina and made the big leagues after just 279 minor league at-bats. The younger Seager has a strong commitment to South Carolina, but is likely to be picked in the first round.

Same theory. An upside bat who projects to the corners, but this one has the defense to stay at a valuable position.

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#51 Overall

Carson Kelly – 3B – Westview High School – Oregon

Baseball America has him ranked #43 for the draft.

Oregon hasn’t produced a high school player in the first three rounds since 1998 when righthander Steve Bechler went to the Orioles, but Kelly has the talent to end that streak. He is a two-way player, but more scouts prefer him as a position player. He’s a below-average runner, but his other tools are solid. Kelly has a strong build and is already pretty well filled out. He has a nice line-drive stroke with good loft and power potential. He’s not flashy, but he’s a steady defender at third base and has a strong arm. Some teams would like to try Kelly behind the plate. On the mound, he sits in the 90-92 mph range and throws a curveball and changeup. The Oregon recruit is young for the class and won’t turn 18 until mid-July but shows excellent maturity and leadership.

Love the fact that he’s a young, athletic player with bat upside. I think age coming out of high school is one of the most overlooked aspects of high school players. A true 19-year-old is very different from a true 17-year-old.

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Wyatt Mathisen – C – Calallen High School – Texas

Baseball America has him ranked #47 for the draft.

Mathisen is the best high school catching prospect in the draft, though he hasn’t seen much time behind the plate for Calallen High, which has deemed him more valuable as a shortstop and pitcher. There’s no question his pro future is as a backstop, and he has the tools and desire to make it there. He has plus arm strength and the athleticism to become a good receiver, though his inexperience shows as he flinches at times when catching the ball. His makeup is off the charts, as he has the leadership ability to run a pitching staff and the work ethic to succeed. The 6-foot-2, 215-pound Mathisen has the swing and strength to hit for average and power from the right side of the plate. He’s a good runner for a catcher, grading as close to average, though he’ll probably lose a step once he starts catching every day. Like crosstown Corpus Christi rival Courtney Hawkins, he’s a Texas recruit.

People say the Dodgers system has a lot of catching prospects, and while that’s true, not many of them project as regulars. Wyatt Mathisen would.

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J.O. Berrios – RHP – Papa Juan XXIII High School – Puerto Rico

Baseball America has him ranked #49 for the draft.

In the history of the draft, only two pitchers from Puerto Rico have been drafted in the top two rounds–Jorge Lopez, who went in the second round to the Brewers last year and Luis Atilano, a Braves supplemental first-round pick from 2003. This year, there may be two more on that list and Berrios will likely be the first off the board. Berrios worked with a conditioning coach this fall and spring and added 20-25 pounds to his frame since the summer and now has a muscular, athletic 6-foot-1, 180-pound physique. The added muscle has allowed him to smooth things out and has boosted his fastball velocity. His fastball now sits in the 93-95 mph range and some scouts have seen him touch 98. He throws his fastball down in the zone, mixes in a sharp, 80-81 mph slider and shows the makings of a solid changeup with fading action. Berrios is getting buzz as high as the back of the first round, and it’s unlikely he’ll wind up honoring his commitment to Miami Dade JC.

The Dodgers actually seem to scout Puerto Rico actively, even under Frank McCourt, so this isn’t that farfetched to me.

Raw, upside velocity with a potential plus breaking ball would seem to be something Logan White might pursue.

As mentioned yesterday, Matt Kemp injured his hamstring and according to the Dodgers official Twitter, he will be headed to the disabled list. In a related move, Kevin Goldstein of Baseball Prospectus confirmed that the Dodgers would be calling up prospect Alex Castellanos from AAA Albuquerque to take his place on the roster.

Because I’m slow and busy, I haven’t actually had the chance to write my Prospect Profile on him yet. However, I will say that I think he’s well worth taking a chance on.

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At 25, there isn’t a lot of time left for him to destroy minor league baseball, and while it’s Albuquerque, Castellanos is indeed destroying the ball, putting up a .361/.465/.711/1.176 line, albeit with a .441 BABIP. The average would have obviously normalized with time, but you don’t need to be a scout to see that line and tell he was hitting the cover off the ball.

Personally though, the most promising sign was the change in patience this year. My biggest concern with Castellanos coming into the year was his lack of plate discipline, as the combination of a mediocre walk rate and a high strikeout rate looked like an MLB disaster-in-waiting. So far in 2012, he has changed his walk rate from the 6-7 percent range all the way up to 12.9%. Furthermore, his strikeout rate has come down from 23-24 percent to 20.8%. That potential change in skill profile gives me a lot more hope for his chances at MLB success than before, because I felt his hit tool was good and he had a bit of pop, and what made me skeptical was the belief that his discipline problems in the minors would get exacerbated when facing MLB competition.

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With a potential skill change in the works, he now looks far more promising as a potential regular, and if he can simply hold his own defensively at second base (I didn’t like what I saw there last season though), it won’t take that much bat to be valuable either.

While nobody actually expects him to replace Matt Kemp in production, he is now one of the few players on the Dodgers roster with upside and who isn’t due for regression, and that provides hope that perhaps he can help the team ride out the injuries to key players.

LA Weekly: I called Josh Macciello out a while ago, but this article was a thorough takedown. It’s long, but well worth a read.

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Baseball Prospectus: The rotation for the Los Angeles Dodgers might not be as good as we think in 2012.

That’s ninth in the National League, and I think it’s clear as to where the value starts tailing off.

If the rotation is going to be good this year, contributions from Nate Eovaldi and others will probably be a part of it.

Baseball Prospectus: Kevin Goldstein ranks the Dodgers farm system 19th in the MLB.

19. Los Angeles Dodgers
Top 11 Prospects List
System At a Glance: There’s certainly pitching here, but it’s more quantity than quality, and the organization is wafer-thin when it comes to positional prospects at the upper level.

Sounds about right to me.

Clayton Kershaw is injured! Everybody panic!

Dodgers Cy Young winner Clayton Kershaw missed his first bullpen session of Spring Training on Wednesday as a precautionary measure due to mild back tightness.

Oh, it’s just back tightness.

Speaking of injuries, Ken Gurnick of MLB.com reports that Rubby De La Rosa is progressing quickly.

Rubby De La Rosa is a pitcher, not a doctor, but he’s declared his Tommy John elbow reconstruction a success and predicts a return this season “after the All-Star break.”

“It’s unbelievable, perfect,” said De La Rosa, whose meteoric rise to the Major Leagues last year was derailed by one bad pitch that tore his ulnar collateral ligament. “I’m going to be a lot better. No doubt I’ll be 100 percent.”

De La Rosa, six months into recovery, said he hasn’t had any setbacks and is throwing 90 feet on flat ground with a target of April to be throwing off a mound. He said he feels healthy enough to air it out, but the training staff has him reined in to throw easy.

“I have to wait,” he said. “I want to be healthy. Sometimes I want to throw hard.”

Can’t wait to see how he performs upon returning. I’m guessing it’ll be out of the pen initially.

As Ronald Belisario‘s world turns, Dylan Hernandez of the Los Angeles Times has an update that involves cocaine.

Back with the Dodgers after a yearlong absence, reliever Ronald Belisario said Wednesday that he was prevented from entering the United States last year because he tested positive for cocaine.

The positive drug test also resulted in a 25-game suspension issued by Major League Baseball that Belisario will serve at the start of the upcoming season.

Standing in front of his locker before the pitchers and catchers’ first workout of the spring, Belisario said he didn’t have a cocaine problem and that he had ingested the drug only once.

“I don’t have a problem with any drugs,” he said.

The failed drug test was the latest incident in a series of personal setbacks that have derailed the 29-year-old right-hander’s once-promising career. In 2010, his last season with the Dodgers, Belisario left the team for more than a month to receive treatment in a substance-abuse program.

Belisario didn’t offer specifics about the treatment he received other than saying it wasn’t for cocaine abuse.

“That’s in the past,” he said. “I don’t want to talk about it.”

Only did cocaine once and was in the substance abuse program for a different issue that he doesn’t want to talk about. Wonderful, sounds legit. Maybe he should have checked himself into a top private drug rehab in Los Angeles, CA instead.

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Could Andre Ethier platoon with Jerry Sands against lefties? Don Mattingly leads us to believe in the possibility.

“Jerry was really good against lefties last year, but we’ve got to be able to get him x number of at-bats. I hate the thought of saying that we’ll platoon guys, but the numbers say (James) Loney and (Andre) Ethier weren’t good against lefties. We’ll mix and match.”

So who tells Ethier about this and how big of a fit does he throw?

Naturally though, it’s the correct move.

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Kevin Goldstein of Baseball Prospectus reported on Twitter that the Dodgers signed Brent Leach, who was once a prospect in the Dodgers system before he left to Japan.

Lefties galore.

MSTI: I don’t know where he found this, but this is definitely the best thing Javy Guerra and James Loney do all year even if they finish 1/2 in the MVP race.

Dodger Thoughts: None of the potential Dodgers ownership groups liked the Matt Kemp and Clayton Kershaw contracts? Uh…yikes.

Feelin’ Kinda Blue: Jon Weisman blogger profile.

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Baseball Prospectus: Kevin Goldstein names his top 101 prospects. The only Dodger on the list is Zach Lee at 70.

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MLB Trade Rumors: Los Angeles Dodgers have four players who are out of options for 2012: A.J. Ellis, Ramon Troncosco, Blake Hawksworth, and Scott Elbert.

Could mean trouble for Troncoso and Hawksworth, but the other two shouldn’t have an issue.

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Baseball Nation: The ten worst swings of 2011. It’s amazing.

ESPN: From Jonah Keri‘s book on the Tampa Bay Rays, “The Extra 2%“, which I should probably get around to reading.

Jennings said he and the other scouts in attendance — all except Arango — remained concerned about the kid’s thick build. They also focused on the negatives rather than the positives as Arango and Jennings both fell into a bit of confirmation bias. Jennings didn’t like the player going down on one knee more than once to field grounders at short. He was also concerned about the player’s performance at catcher: messy footwork and iffy throwing mechanics, despite a few good throws. At bat, he worried about the player’s approach more than the results. “He’s sitting very deep on his back leg, uppercut swing, back shoulder dipping pretty good,” Jennings said.

It’s an excerpt that’s both funny and sad at the same time, but I do like the insight it gives into the decision making process.

Also, Fernando Arango is far more mature than me. I’d be sending a postcard to Chuck LaMar and Vince Naimoli every year with Albert Pujols and me smiling widely.

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MLB Trade Rumors: Los Angeles Dodgers might be signing Amaury Sanit.

Sources close to Amaury Sanit tell Fernando Ballesteros at Puro Béisbol in Mexico that the Dodgers are interested in signing the 32-year-old Cuban reliever. Sanit logged just seven innings out of the Yankees’ pen last season before being released in June, but he has seen more action as the closer for the Culicán Tomateros in the Mexican League this winter, pitching to a 0.62 era in 36 appearances.

He has been rather unimpressive in the minors to this point and his stint in the majors was a disaster. Worse yet, he was suspended 50 games in 2010 for using performance enhancing drugs.

Nothing to get upset about, as it’ll be a minor league contract, but not noteworthy either.

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Kevin Goldstein of Baseball Prospectus relays on Twitter that the Dodgers have signed third baseman Josh Fields and pitcher Ryan Tucker.

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Beyond The Box Score: David Fung projects the Dodgers offense to be just as good in 2012 as it was in 2011…which is actually not good.

The Book: John Dewan and bunting for a hit. It’s an awesome study and relevant to a player like Dee Gordon.

CBS Sports: Thanks to Kevin Malone, Paul DePodesta, and Ned Colletti for getting the Dodgers roster to the point where doing almost nothing but re-signing homegrown players since their reigns began would have resulted in the team from the link.

Yes, I’m into sabermetrics and didn’t like DePo. Just felt that everything with him was literally by the numbers, which honestly isn’t sabermetrics.

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Los Angeles Times: Congratulations, America! We just spent six million dollars or more to get Barry Bonds two years probation, house arrest, and a fine. Fuck yeah!

All for a bunch of shit that shouldn’t even be illegal and for a case that shouldn’t have ever been opened. Awesome!

Penn Live: Joe Paterno‘s entire grand jury testimony was read in court and it confirms that he admitted under oath to being told about Jerry Sandusky by Mike McQueary.

Logically, that should put an end to all the Penn State people still trying to defend Paterno, since it’s by his own sworn admission after all, but somehow I doubt it.

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Baseball Prospectus: Yoenis Cespedes is back and Kevin Goldstein has the play-by-play. Less hilarious, more relevant.