Don Mattingly has named Kenley Jansen closer following Brandon League being Brandon League and imploding in a save situation yet again.

When asked how he would get the ball to Jansen, Donnie Baseball said something you’d prefer your manager to not say publicly:

With Jansen closing, how will Dodgers get the ball to the 9th inning? Mattingly: “That’s a great question.”

Jansen is obviously the better pitcher, but what’s most important is not simply removing League from “save situations”, as a game could need saving in the 6th, 7th, or 8th inning.

What Don needs to do is not put League in high leverage situations, at least in the interim, wherever and whenever they present themselves.

—–

Scott Van Slyke hit the 15-day DL with shoulder bursitis. Alex Castellanos was recalled to take his place.

Van Slyke originally injured himself on May 25th trying to make a diving grab. He’s the 15th different Dodger to land on the disabled list in 2013, and many of those fifteen have made multiple trips.

—–

Ted Lilly hit the DL yet again, and Matt Magill was recalled yet again to take his place in the rotation.

The Dodgers on Sunday made official what was reported on Saturday, that Ted Lilly was placed on the 15-day disabled list with a neck sprain and Matt Magill was recalled from Triple-A Albuquerque to start the series finale against the Braves at Dodger Stadium.

Magill was then sent back to AAA as Justin Sellers was called up.

Sellers was then sent down, with Chris Withrow being recalled from AAA.

Hopefully Withrow finds success quickly in the bigs, as it would give Mattingly a late-inning option other than League and not named Jansen or Paco Rodriguez.

—–

Two minor-league promotions, as Duke Von Schamann heads from High-A to AA Chattanooga, and Rob Rasmussen gets the call to AAA.

Duke might have the greatest name ever.

—–

Two minor-leaguers were released, with Alfredo Amezaga being the only noteworthy one of the pair.

Released: RHP Travis Jones, SS Alfredo Amezaga

For better or worse, he was never a real threat to make the club at any point.

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Greg Zakwin is the founder of the site Plaschke Thy Sweater Is Argyle. Follow him on Twitter @ArgyledPlaschke and find him contributing at Yahoo! Sports.

The Dodgers handed Brandon League a three-year contract and the closer’s role heading into the 2013 season, but his predictable fall from temporary grace in the role has led to continued questions about his viability as the closer, especially with Kenley Jansen waiting in the wings.

It’s easy to see why questions are being asked, as any comparison between the two relievers’ resumes is comical, and it doesn’t matter if we’re talking about just 2013 or their entire careers.

By now, due to what you see in the chart above, I think most of the fan base has concluded that Kenley deserves the closer’s spot over League. However, that assumes that the closer’s spot is the place where the team should be putting their best reliever.

Don Mattingly doesn’t think that’s correct, and I’m inclined to agree.

Don Mattingly has adjusted his late-inning bullpen use recently by deploying Kenley Jansen to face the hitters posing the greatest threat, no matter the inning.

“I don’t like a committee of guys, that’s always unsettling, like every day is a tryout, and that’s not the environment I want for my pitchers,” said Mattingly. “I want them to know I’m confident in them and trust them. It’s not like you give up a run and you’re out.

“But the way it’s been going is the best way to do it. Kenley gets the tougher part of the order, and there’s a chance of anybody in the ninth. We don’t have Mariano [Rivera]. You see teams changing all the time in the last inning or two.”

For the moment, forget about statistics or the fact that you hate Mattingly or whatever else. Logically, what he’s saying makes absolute sense: Use your best reliever in the most important situations in the game against their best hitters.

Basically, Mattingly’s plan is to use Kenley as an ace reliever of old, a move which is only bolstered by the fact that Kenley has a history of being able to go multiple innings. Another reason it works is because the Dodger bullpen has been hit by injuries and ineffectiveness like the rest of the team, so despite League’s struggles, he’s still projected to get late-inning outs even if he’s removed as closer. And since blowing a lead in the eighth sucks just as much as in the ninth (or more since the closer doesn’t even get used then), simply stripping League of the overhyped title accomplishes little to solve the root problem.

Yes, League and Ronald Belisario and friends have to get it together somewhat for this to work, but that was always true to begin with. If they continue to tank, the bullpen fails miserably anyway, with or without this strategy, as Kenley is only one man. As such, it’s hard to see the downside to this move besides the risk for overwork (a temptation, regardless).

Whether you want to admit it or not, if Mattingly actually uses Kenley like he says, it’s quite the progressive move for a manager whose game decisions are generally regressive. I’ve been calling for Dodgers managers to use their best relievers in the most important situations forever now, and if Donnie sticks to what he’s saying, there may finally be progress on that front, even if it is partially out of desperation.

After giving up back-to-back bloop singles to put runners on first and third to start the top of the eighth inning, Kenley Jansen managed to wriggle out of trouble without allowing a run and blowing the lead.

Here’s how:

That series of plate appearances set-up the Dodgers for the win, thus getting Zack Greinke a victory in his return from injury.

Zack Greinke has a broken left collarbone because Carlos Quentin is an imbecile.

The initial timetable is eight weeks following surgery, and Greinke has traveled back to LA to visit with team doctor Neal ElAttrache and go under the knife.

A CT scan of the left clavicle showed that Greinke needs a rod placed to stabilize and align the fracture. The surgery will be performed Saturday by team physicians Dr. ElAttrache and Dr. John Itamura, at White Memorial Hospital in Los Angeles.

This whole situation was just … unnecessary and terrible for the Dodgers. Quentin just has to walk 90 feet to first.

—–

Hanley Ramirez is progressing with his rehab following surgery on his torn thumb ligament suffered during the World Baseball Classic, as he had his cast removed.

“He’s actually been able to do quite a bit of baseball stuff. Hopefully that will shorten the timetable for when he comes back, to be sharper,” said manager Don Mattingly.

Ramirez isn’t what he used to be, but compared to what the Dodgers are currently trotting out on the left side of the infield, he would be a savior.

—–

The heart ailment that has felled Kenley Jansen numerous times over the last couple of seasons is now fully healed, and Jansen does not have to worry about a recurrence.

“It was a fairly successful operation to begin with, but it was very successful on him,” said Stan Conte, the Dodgers’ head of medical services. “His conditioning has improved, which, I think, is a direct reflection of the surgery. Now, he has a normal heart.”

“When I got an a-fib, my heart rate was like 200,” Jansen said. “It’s crazy. It’s beating quick and out of rhythm, and you get tired. That’s the scary part, that you’re tired. You feel like you’re running all the time.”

“It’s finally fixed,” Jansen, 25, said with a smile.

Excellent news for Kenley both on and off the field.

—–

Chad Billingsley‘s return to The Show from an injured finger on his pitching hand went pretty well, as he went six in his first start of the season. He fanned three and allowed eight baserunners.

Most importantly though, Chad’s elbow, finger, and groin did not give him trouble, and the bit of rust was to be expected considering he hadn’t pitched in a major-league game since late August of last year.

—–

Ted Lilly went six in a rehab start with the AAA Albuquerque Isotopes.

He seems to be close to “ready”.

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Greg Zakwin is the founder of the site Plaschke Thy Sweater Is Argyle. Follow him on Twitter @ArgyledPlaschke.

The Dodgers have sent Matt Magill, Steven Ames, and Matt Palmer to minor-league camp, removing them from contention for a 25-man roster spot.

Not surprising for any of the three, as Magill and Ames are still a year-plus away from being legitimate roster contenders – especially considering the depth of the Dodgers staff and pen – and Palmer recently underwent knee surgery and was never a true threat to begin with.

Additionally, Brian Barden, Hector Luna, and Jeremy Moore all got their tickets to minor-league camp as well. Like the other trio, all three were slated to be in Albuquerque in 2013.

—–

In addition to the cuts, the team released left-handed pitchers Victor Garate and Wilmin Rodriguez, along with catcher Angelo Ponte and right-handed pitcher Hector Correa.

—–

The team inked right-hander Pablo Gonzalez and outfielder Robbie Garvey, presumably to minor-league deals.

—–

Shocker of all shockers: Don Mattingly doesn’t consider Yasiel Puig a candidate to make the big-league squad out of Spring Training.

Is Yasiel Puig a candidate for opening day roster? “Not really in my mind,” said Don Mattingly

Anyone who thought a guy with just 23 games and 95 plate appearances of professional ball – none above high-A, to boot – was a real threat to start the season in the bigs was just kidding themselves and focused on Puig’s freakish physique.

“It’s probably not the best thing for him. People probably don’t want to hear that, but realistically it’s not the best thing for him,” said manager Don Mattingly. “I don’t think our organization thinks it would be the best thing for a guy with as few at-bats as he’s gotten.”

He should be good, but he needs time in the minors to learn and grow like anybody else.

—–

Speaking of roster decisions, Tim Federowicz appears to have the inside track on the backup catcher job, which is what the team was probably hoping for all along.

—–

Watch Kenley Jansen in the World Baseball Classic tomorrow against the Dominican Republic, as he was called up to the Netherlands squad for the semi-finals.

—–

Dylan Hernandez relays the 2013 salaries of Dodgers with under three years of major-league service time. The salaries apply only when these players are up in The Show, as they make significantly less if sent down to the minors.

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Greg Zakwin is the founder of the site Plaschke Thy Sweater Is Argyle. Follow him on Twitter @ArgyledPlaschke.

Baseball fans love to talk about clutch plays and clutch players, and Dodgers fans are no exception, but like with a pitcher’s best and worst pitches, there tends to be a lack of evidence presented. As such, I decided to find some basis for clutch plays and clutch players, courtesy of the WPA and Clutch statistics.

WPA

Most sabermetric statistics are context neutral — they do not consider the situation of a particular event or how some plays are more crucial to a win than others. While wOBA rates all home runs as equal, we know intuitively that a home run in the third inning of a blowout is less important to that win than a home run in the bottom of the ninth inning of a close game. Win Probability Added (WPA) captures this difference by measuring how individual players affect their team’s win expectancy on a per-play basis.

Clutch

In the words of David Appelman, this calculation measures, “…how much better or worse a player does in high leverage situations than he would have done in a context neutral environment.” It also compares a player against himself, so a player who hits .300 in high leverage situations when he’s an overall .300 hitter is not considered clutch.

So that’s the foundation for this post, and since that’s now been established, let’s get on with it, shall we?

As always, visuals have been provided because, let’s be honest, everything is better with visuals.

—–

I feel like it’s necessary to point out that none of this is predictive of the future or telling of the past. It’s a post about stuff that happened in 2012. That’s all.

In other words, please don’t link back to this while saying, “LOOK! THIS DUDE IS SUCH A CHOKER, BRO!” No.

—–

Top Five David Carradine Choke Pitches Of 2012

1. Kenley Jansen – -65.2%

Still amuses me that the umpire called the first runner out initially.

Anyway, so technically this wasn’t a pitch, but … uh … it was one of the most ridiculous ways to allow two runs I have ever seen.

It was the ninth inning and there were runners on second and third with two down. The Dodgers were clinging to a one-run lead, so it’s not like they weren’t in trouble since a hit would have had a similar result, but this was certainly more creative.

2. Javy Guerra – -64.8%

Two-run walk-off doubles tend to result in being on this list.

3. Kenley Jansen – -45.2%

Giving up a two-run single with a one-run lead in the top of eighth is not good, but it would have been worse had Matt Kemp not gunned a runner down at third.

Oh, and it was Hunter Pence who did the damage, thus making it ten times worse.

4. Javy Guerra – -44.5%

Deja vu.

5. Javy Guerra – -43.7%

Remember when people scoffed at the notion that Kenley Jansen was the better reliever? Oops.

To be fair, this was the game where he got his face destroyed, which seems like a legit excuse for giving up a game-tying one-run single.

—–

Kenley Jansen might be an idiot, but boy did the closer role not suit Javy Guerra.

—–

Top Five Chokeiest Dodgers Of 2012 – Ball Thrower Division

1. Javy Guerra – -1.44
2. Joe Blanton – -0.43
3. Chad Billingsley – -0.36
4. Clayton Kershaw – -0.25
5. Kenley Jansen – -0.23

Baseball fans love to talk about clutch plays and clutch players, and Dodgers fans are no exception, but like with a pitcher’s best and worst pitches, there tends to be a lack of evidence presented. As such, I decided to find some basis for clutch plays and clutch players, courtesy of the WPA and Clutch statistics.

WPA

Most sabermetric statistics are context neutral — they do not consider the situation of a particular event or how some plays are more crucial to a win than others. While wOBA rates all home runs as equal, we know intuitively that a home run in the third inning of a blowout is less important to that win than a home run in the bottom of the ninth inning of a close game. Win Probability Added (WPA) captures this difference by measuring how individual players affect their team’s win expectancy on a per-play basis.

Clutch

In the words of David Appelman, this calculation measures, “…how much better or worse a player does in high leverage situations than he would have done in a context neutral environment.” It also compares a player against himself, so a player who hits .300 in high leverage situations when he’s an overall .300 hitter is not considered clutch.

So that’s the foundation for this post, and since that’s now been established, let’s get on with it, shall we?

As always, visuals have been provided because, let’s be honest, everything is better with visuals.

—–

I feel like it’s necessary to point out that none of this is predictive of the future or telling of the past. It’s a post about stuff that happened in 2012. That’s all.

In other words, please don’t link back to this while saying, “LOOK! THIS DUDE IS SO CLUTCH, BRO!” No.

—–

Top Five Clutchiest McClutchington Outs Of 2012

1. Kenley Jansen – 46.8%

The Dodgers were clinging onto an 8-7 lead with one down in the bottom of the ninth and runners on first and third. At this point, you’d almost be happy with a tied game.

One Jason Kubel swing later and it was a win instead.

2. Javy Guerra – 31.6%

Tied at 4-4 in the top of the ninth inning, the Padres got runners on first and second with nobody out. Not looking good for the Dodgers.

But then the impossible happened and … well … you can see it for yourself.

3. Ronald Belisario – 27.5%

Tied at two in the bottom of the eighth inning and facing a bases loaded jam with one out, Ronald Belisario gets out of it thanks to what basically amounts to luck.

Matt Holliday smashed a liner, but it was right at Mark Ellis, who doubled up the runner at second.

4. Kenley Jansen – 24.7%

With runners on second and third in the top of the ninth and one down, the Dodgers are clinging to a 6-5 lead when Kenley Jansen induces a harmless infield pop-up.

5. Brandon League – 20.0%

Tied at three with one down in the bottom of the tenth and a runner on third, Brandon League keeps him there by inducing a strikeout.

—–

It shouldn’t be a surprise to anybody that the most clutch plays of the season all went to relievers.

That said, I am shocked that Javy Guerra‘s play wasn’t tops on this list, since it’s almost never that you induce three outs on one pitch.

—–

Top Five Clutchiest Dodgers Of 2012 – Ball Thrower Division

1. Brandon League – 0.70
2. Josh Lindblom – 0.47
3. Nate Eovaldi – 0.34
4. Shawn Tolleson – 0.34
5. Stephen Fife – 0.32

The Dodgers begin their 2013 Spring Training with a ton of injury concerns, and now that the whole team has reported, it’s time for an update on player statuses.

No better way to start this off than with Chad Billingsley, who might be the biggest question mark of all even if the depth acquired has mitigated the consequences if he does falter. Coaches say he looks normal, trainers have him on his normal schedule, and he says he feels normal.

“I feel normal,” said Billingsley, who chose platelet-rich plasma injections over Tommy John surgery, as Takashi Saito did successfully five years ago. “There wasn’t a time in the offseason when I felt like I didn’t know if it would hold up,” Billingsley said. “I know some people think it’s an issue, but I don’t. I came to Spring Training not worried about it.”

“They pushed me, basically gave me a chance to blow it out, figuring if it was going to fail, it would be better to know then,” said Billingsley. “In the simulated game, I felt awesome. I’m really excited.”

Billingsley is on a regular schedule and he has no restrictions. “There hasn’t been any mention in any of the medical reports or anything else. His name’s not on a list, it’s not on anything. He’s just like one of the guys getting ready. We’re really getting to the point where we’re just assuming he’s going to be ready, and he’s going to be fine,” Mattingly said.

Difficult not to be encouraged, but we’ve heard this song and dance before with a lot of injuries, and it’s hard to argue against the previous science of trying to rehab partially torn elbow ligaments.

Remember, not if, but when.

—–

Carl Crawford is another gigantic question mark for 2013, and he doesn’t seem to be coming along quite as quickly as he planned.

Carl Crawford, though, is not as far along in his recovery from August Tommy John surgery on his left (throwing) elbow. He’s throwing up to 90 feet, hitting off a tee and hopes to graduate in the next few days to live pitching, which Kemp did weeks ago.

Crawford said he’s “confident” he’ll be ready by Opening Day, depending on what the Dodgers “want to see.”

“I think I can hit the cutoff man, but I don’t know if that’s where they want me to come back,” he said. “I think I’m an everyday guy, but I understand the thought of easing me back in.”

Crawford said he has no pain in his elbow, “just typical muscle fatigue,” and that his arthritic left wrist hasn’t given him trouble, but “it’s something to stay on top of throughout the season.”

Depending on what the Dodgers want to see? They want to see a healthy outfielder, not a guy who is 75% and lobbing the ball in to the cutoff man. He has a noodle arm as it is, after all.

On the positive side of things, Don Mattingly seems encouraged by his progress.

Mattingly was very pleased with Carl Crawford, who participated in batting practice today. ” Carl was good, I was really surprised.” “With Carl being out on the field for the first time, he’d been swinging,” but today was the first time he was out on the field in a while.

All three outfielders spent time hurt last year, so it seems weird they have three backups for the rotation, but don’t even have a platoon partner for Andre Ethier yet.

—–

Scott Elbert sounds encouraged even though he’s coming off elbow surgery that necessitated the signing of lefty relievers to ensure that the team isn’t just relying on Paco Rodriguez.

“They didn’t give me a time frame, but it looks like May,” said Elbert, whose second surgery led to the signing of free-agent reliever J.P. Howell for $2.85 million.

On Sept. 19, Elbert underwent a first procedure to remove scar tissue in the back of the elbow. But after beginning a throwing program, he developed pain in a different area that led to a Jan. 23 arthroscopic procedure involving “a new area of cartilage damage [that] was discovered and debrided” by Dr. Neal ElAttrache, according to Elbert.

“It feels a lot better now,” Elbert said of the elbow. “After the first surgery, I tried throwing for two weeks but had to shut it down. It never calmed down; it just hurt.”

Elbow surgery isn’t as significant a deal anymore, but when they start piling up, there has to be some concern there for the future a la Hong Chih Kuo.

—–

Kenley Jansen had a minor issue with an ingrown toenail, which doesn’t seem to be anything to worry about. Hell, I was almost glad the issue was that and not something related to his heart.

—–

In more worrisome news, Chris Withrow needs an MRI on his ailing back, the same problem that has plagued him in the minors.

It’s becoming a chronic issue, and while he’s converted to a relief role in an attempt to reign in his stuff, this injury might be a bigger obstacle to his progress than his command at this point.

Rick Honeycutt provided a bunch of updates on the health of Clayton Kershaw, Javy Guerra, Chad Billingsley, Shawn Tolleson, Josh Wall, and Kenley Jansen.

“Clayton was great, outstanding,” said Honeycutt. “But he was outstanding his last three starts, so that wasn’t a surprise. Shawn Tolleson had a little back tightness, but he threw a ‘pen. So did Josh Wall and Javy Guerra, who isn’t as far behind as I thought he’d be. Belisario was there, he threw twice, looked real good.”

Guerra seems healthy after off-season shoulder surgery, which is a positive for the pen, but there’s not much else that seems serious … except that Belisario is already in camp, which seems as much a miracle as Billingsley’s elbow holding up all year.

Speaking of which…

Billingsley was not at the minicamp, remaining at home in Pennsylvania, but he hasn’t had a setback after responding well to platelet-rich plasma injections. There is no way to know if his elbow will hold up until it is tested in Spring Training.

“He has to be smart and be open if he feels something so he doesn’t push it past the point,” said Honeycutt. “There’s a fine line between being really hurt or having something you can deal with. Chad tends to pitch through whatever is going on, and he’s not always open about what’s going on. He needs to be honest with himself.”

An athlete being honest about being hurt? Yeah, let’s rely on that because it has such a rich history of working.

Honeycutt didn’t see Kenley Jansen throw, but the reliever arrived the day Honeycutt left and has been throwing bullpens with no ill effects from the surgery he had to fix an irregular heartbeat.

Probably one of the most worrying health concerns because of the unknown/random nature of it.

—–

Hanley Ramirez injured his knee sliding into second base in the finale of the Caribbean Series, but the injury isn’t considered serious or long-term.

@chadmoriyama Awkward slide into second base to break up double play. Couldn’t tell which leg he was favoring afterward.

— Chris Jackson (@TopesWriter) February 8, 2013

Hanley stayed in the game and it didn’t even warrant any real followup other than people on Twitter mentioning that he’s fine, so it doesn’t seem to be anything to worry about going forward.

In a weird way though, him having a minor injury that put him out of the World Baseball Classic might have been a blessing in disguise because then he could play shortstop in Spring Training.

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Greg Zakwin is the founder of the site Plaschke Thy Sweater Is Argyle. Follow him on Twitter @ArgyledPlaschke.

The Dodgers have officially converted former starting pitcher Chris Withrow to relief and former third baseman Pedro Baez to pitching.

FINALLY

Personally, I’ve seen both Withrow and Baez in those roles for a couple years now (maybe Baez for longer given his swing), and I think most evaluators began to agree within the last year, so it’s good to see the Dodgers follow suit.

Withrow, the Dodgers’ No. 1 pick in 2007, had early bouts with the yips and more recently chronic back problems. Withrow responded to a bullpen move late last year, and Honeycutt said it’s now permanent, hoping the role change can work Eric Gagne-like wonders for Withrow, whose electric arm is undisputed.

Maybe management recalls a hard-throwing second-rounder that struggled as a starter and was never tried as a reliever. Instead, the Dodgers let Joel Hanrahan leave as a free agent and he went on to be an All-Star closer. “Chris wanted the change,” Honeycutt said. “He likes attacking more. He reminds me a little of Gagne, somebody who might throw three or four innings as a starter but have one [bad] inning, and you can eliminate that if you’re only asking one inning of relief from him. Maybe one- or two-inning stints will be easier on his back. He’s got the arm.”

Withrow’s bouts with command and a lack of development of a solid third pitch would have led down this road eventually, so getting ahead of the curve here and giving him a chance to be a dominant back-end reliever is a positive.

Baez, a .247 hitter in six Minor League seasons, is starting over as a hard-throwing reliever a la Jansen, who came out from behind the plate to emerge as a bullpen strikeout king.

“They put him on the mound in instructional league and that fastball is really strong,” Honeycutt said of Baez, who turns 25 next month. “You talk about Kenley when you see the ball come out of his hand. He hasn’t been overwhelmed by thinking too much about pitching. He just sees the glove and throws it and that’s kind of refreshing.”

Universally, scouting reports have put Baez’s arm as plus or plus-plus, with some clocking him consistently in the low-90s across the diamond. As such, his arm strength shouldn’t be a surprise, and though he’s already 25, he now has the same chance Kenley Jansen did, which is better than languishing in A-ball as a hitter who struggled to hit.

—–

The Dodgers have 17 non-roster invitees coming to major-league camp in 2013.

The ones of note I would say are Tony Gwynn Jr., Alfredo Amezaga, and Ramon Castro, ordered in likelihood that they actually make the roster. The rest of them seem to fill positions that the Dodgers already have a backlog of, especially the relievers.

The 2013 projection for the Dodgers from Dan Szymborski‘s ZiPS system was released last week, and given that it’s probably my favorite forecasting tool, it’s worth a look to see how the team fared.

Forecasting is not a complete science, obviously, and I’ll address some of the potential pitfalls as we go along, but it’s better to use objective tools like these than the hopes/dreams of fans or the bitterness/wishes of haters.

To start us off, how does the team fare, generally speaking? A solid playoff contender, for sure, but a super team? Doesn’t seem likely.

—–

The Field Players

Despite all the hype over the recent acquisitions, the key cogs in this machine are still Clayton Kershaw and Matt Kemp. It’s a promising sign then, that Kemp projects at a 144 OPS+ and the system has confidence in him continuing to put up offensive numbers in the ~.900 OPS range. His defense in center still lags below average, but his bat more than makes up for it. His playing time projection has dropped due to his injury woes last season, and quite frankly, it’s hard to fault it for that. Regardless, he still figures to be the most valuable field player on the team.

Adrian Gonzalez is slated to be another bright spot, as ZiPS pegs him to bounceback a bit, though not as much as some want, clocking in at an ~.830 OPS/128 OPS+. That would still be his lowest OPS+ since 2008 (besides 2012, of course), but it’s a marked improvement considering his age and negatively trending skills. A-Gon compensates for that lagging bat a bit by putting up plus defense almost worth a win by itself. Hanley Ramirez factors in as yet another bounceback candidate, projecting at a 115 OPS+, which is an upgrade over last year’s 106 and is closer to his pre-2011 production. Defensively, even his horribad -8 run defensive rating is optimistic to me, as he was truly terrible with the glove last year. Given that I already wanted to barf seeing him trying to turn a double play in 2012, I wouldn’t be surprised at all to see him put up horrid defensive numbers after basically not playing the position all of spring.

Unfortunately, that’s where a lot of the offensive optimism ends. Luis Cruz checks in at 84 OPS+ (106 last year), which will anger many fans, but is completely reasonable given the track record. He remains valuable through plus defense, though given the sample size, there’s reason to be skeptical there as well. A.J. Ellis at 96 OPS+ (118) is another depressing but completely logical projection, as evidenced by everybody’s surprise in 2012 at his potent bat. Andre Ethier at 112 OPS+ (123) is hard to figure for me, because he has been consistently putting up ~120 OPS+ seasons even if it has come down from the ~130 OPS+ range two years ago. I suppose the projection system thinks he’ll get old in a hurry … or maybe it just thinks he’ll face an inordinately high amount of lefties. Mark Ellis at 81 OPS+ (93) shouldn’t be much of a surprise considering he’s 36 and put up an 80 OPS+ at Coors Field in 2011.

The last guy of the starters is Carl Crawford, who is the enigma of the 2013 season. He checks in at 104, which is notable because it’s basically his career OPS+ and it’s about what he did in limited time in 2012 over in Boston. That’s of particular note for me, because what he did in Boston in 2012 can be attributed to a mechanical fix that I pointed out in an article for Baseball Prospectus. Understandably, his playing time checks in low, but if he can produce like he did in 2012 but over a whole season, the Dodgers will be much better for it.

Overall, after fixing the playing time of A.J., adjusting Ethier’s offense up a bit, and adjusting Hanley’s defense down a bit, the starting lineup totaled about 22 WAR.

—–

The Bench & The Prospects

Assuming a bench of Tim Federowicz, Scott Van Slyke or Alex Castellanos, Jerry Hairston Jr., Nick Punto, and Skip Schumaker, we’re looking at around 3 WAR here after playing time is adjusted back to realistic bench levels. I’m guessing Alfredo Amezaga or Tony Gwynn Jr. work their way in somehow, but a five-man bench seems likely initially if the Dodgers can’t deal multiple pitchers before the season starts. Neither player would affect the WAR projection much though.

Honestly? I have to hope the Dodgers do something to improve the bench, because the current configuration looks rather mediocre, and the other options are keeping Juan Uribe and/or Elian Herrera. Yuck.

The good news is that Joc Pederson, T-Fed, SVS, and Castle are projected to be solid at the MLB level, though it sees Dee Gordon basically languishing behind.

—–

The Rotation

Clayton Kershaw is simply a beast, and he figures to check in with a 75 FIP-. This might seem high considering his 2011 and 2012 ERA- figures of 63 and 67, respectively, but when you consider that Felix Hernandez clocks in at 78 FIP- for 2013, you get the picture.

What might surprise is how close new acquisition Zack Greinke comes in behind him, as he figures to put up an FIP- of 81. Granted, he has always projected favorably, as his career FIP- is 80, while his career ERA- is 88, but even adjusting slightly for that, there’s a definite case there for the best 1-2 punch in the majors.

Unfortunately, this is where it gets murky, as Chad Billingsley has the stuff to be the #3, but if I were a betting man, I would bet his elbow implodes before July. He projects at 92 FIP-, which would put him around last year’s performance, which was his arguably his best season since 2008. However, given the nature of his injury and its history in the league, you can basically never rely on him to stay healthy again until he has Tommy John surgery.

Next in the pecking order are Josh Beckett, who comes in below-average at 103, and foreign import Hyun Jin Ryu, who comes in well below-average at 116. As mentioned before, the scouting reports for Beckett match this projection, as he’s no longer a front-line starter due to his decrease in velocity. However, if he can manage to learn to pitch a bit more, he still has the curve to perhaps slot in as a #3 more than a #4. Ryu is a case where I would take any projection with a mound of salt, because there’s hardly anything to base objective projections on. Personally, I don’t think Ryu has the stuff to be a #2, nor do I think he’ll be a #3 on a team with a $250 million payroll, but he should slot in comfortably in the back-end of the rotation for years. I would project something slightly below-average for 2013 and then hope for better.

The rotation is a strong point because it has both arguably the best 1-2 punch in the majors and depth, with Chris Capuano (108 FIP-) and Aaron Harang (114 FIP) presumably traded for upgrades (or maybe kept somehow?), and it checks in at about 17 WAR.

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The Bullpen & The Prospects

As of right now, I’m assuming a bullpen of Brandon League, Kenley Jansen, Ronald Belisario, Javy Guerra, Matt Guerrier, J.P. Howell, and Ted Lilly.

Jansen is the best of the bunch (63 FIP-) and League projects a distant second (92 FIP-), but Belisario has the most upside in these projections (101 FIP-). After that, Guerra, Guerrier, and Howell are all around replacement level. Lilly projects as a league-average pitcher, assuming he’s healthy, which would be a boon to a team that has a ticking time bomb in the rotation.

As far as prospects go, ZiPS thinks Chris Reed could be a replacement-level fill-in right now, but Zach Lee, Matt Magill, and Garrett Gould need more seasoning. And for all of you who have Stephen Fife wet dreams (yes, you’re out there), he projects at a 4.91 FIP, so keep it in your pants.

Speaking of replacement level, that especially applies to the Dodgers bullpen because of Shawn Tolleson, Scott Elbert, Steven Ames, and Paco Rodriguez, so the 4 WAR projection for this pen figures to be solid.

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Team Projection

A replacement-level team figures to win 43 games, and the team with the lowest amount of wins to get into the playoffs last year was the Cardinals at 88 wins, so 42 WAR puts you in the contender range and 45 WAR makes you viable, while 50 WAR will generally make a team a safe bet to be in the postseason. The Dodgers total 46 WAR, which puts them well within the playoff hunt: good but not great.

The Dodgers basically project neck-and-neck with the rival Giants, while the D-Backs lag behind a bit by maybe a half dozen wins or so, but they’re well within striking distance as well.

So make no mistake, the Dodgers recent spending habits did not make them an elite team, as the money simply duct-taped over both a flawed team and farm system depleted by Frank McCourt‘s ownership and Ned Colletti‘s questionable decisions. But that’s not to denigrate the job the new owners have done, as they turned the franchise into a legitimate playoff contender seemingly overnight, which is still saying a lot about what money can do.

Granted, “we gave you a team that has the chance to make the playoffs” is not what fans want to hear, but it’s an acceptable scenario as they lay the foundation to rebuild the franchise the correct way in their own minds. The 2013 projections might not reflect world-beaters like most seem to expect, but it’s a projection based on historical trends rather than hopes and dreams.

The 2013 Dodgers are indeed a team with a lot of upside, and if everything breaks correctly, they could very well end up being one of the best teams in the league, but they also carry a ton of inherent age and injury risk, which is why the projections come in understandably conservative. Either way, if nothing else, this team figures to be never boring.

As fans of the Dodgers, we’re always analyzing which pitchers have the best and worst pitches, but we normally base that on nothing but our own feelings at the moment, so I decided to take a more objective look at things.

For a pitch to qualify for these rankings, I used a 200-pitch minimum for starters and a 50-pitch minimum for relievers. The metric used to measure pitch effectiveness is True Average (TAv), which is basically like wOBA. League average performance is set at .260, and the metric doesn’t include baserunning.

Additionally, to prevent the post from being solely numbers-based, and one that would have been mind-numbingly boring, I decided to provide visual evidence as well.

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Worst Overall Pitches

Shawn Tolleson – Sinker – .395 TAv

Mike MacDougal – Sinker – .342 TAv

Matt Guerrier – Fastball – .320 TAv

Relief pitchers have smaller sample sizes, so they are prone to fluctuations, but they have the advantage of appearing in short bursts and limiting their arsenal to only their best pitches.

So … uh … this is TERRIBLE.

.395 is like 40 points higher than Mike Trout in 2012 for fucks sake.

H-h-how?

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Worst Individual Pitches

Fastball

Matt Guerrier – .320 TAv

*Visual Is Above*

Shawn Tolleson – .273
Javy Guerra – .256
Scott Elbert – .237
Ronald Belisario – .082

Ugh.

Sinker

Shawn Tolleson – .395 TAv

*Visual Is Above*

Mike MacDougal – .342
Brandon League – .280
Todd Coffey – .263
Randy Choate – .262
Jamey Wright – .258
Ronald Belisario – .225

No … just no.

Cutter

Jamey Wright – .258 TAv

Scott Elbert – .242
Javy Guerra – .208
Kenley Jansen – .187
Matt Guerrier – .139

Curve

Javy Guerra – .271 TAv

Jamey Wright – .171

Finishing last out of two isn’t bad, but giving up a .271 on a curve as a reliever is.

Slider

Kenley Jansen – .236 TAv

Jamey Wright – .215
Todd Coffey – .214
Shawn Tolleson – .206
Brandon League – .147
Ronald Belisario – .121
Randy Choate – .058

I actually think he could benefit from throwing this more often because it’s a quality pitch. Not hanging it is a different story, but how is he supposed to learn command of it if he never uses it?

Change

None Qualified

Splitter

Brandon League – .096 TAv

He’s the only reliever that qualified for this pitch, so I guess he’s technically the best and the worst, but considering his split was the second-most effective pitch by a reliever for the team in 2012, I’m pretty sure he gets a pass.

As fans of the Dodgers, we’re always analyzing which pitchers have the best and worst pitches, but we normally base that on nothing but our own feelings at the moment, so I decided to take a more objective look at things.

For a pitch to qualify for these rankings, I used a 200-pitch minimum for starters and a 50-pitch minimum for relievers. The metric used to measure pitch effectiveness is True Average (TAv), which is basically like wOBA. League average performance is set at .260, and the metric doesn’t include baserunning.

Additionally, to prevent the post from being solely numbers-based, and one that would have been mind-numbingly boring, I decided to provide visual evidence as well.

—–

Best Overall Pitches

Randy Choate – Slider – .058 TAv

Brandon League – Splitter – .096 TAv

Ronald Belisario – Slider – .121 TAv

The first two pitches should come as no surprise given that they are basically what both pitchers make their money off of. However, Ronald Belisario’s slider? Really? Yeah, but I’m guessing that’s almost entirely based on how surprised hitters are to see it when they’re expecting nothing but 95-97 mph sinking fastballs.

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Best Individual Pitches

Fastball

Scott Elbert – .237 TAv

Javy Guerra – .256
Shawn Tolleson – .273
Matt Guerrier – .320

Ronald Belisario’s .082 was disqualified because I’m about 99% sure these pitches were simply identified incorrectly. In any case, I’m surprised by how the Dodgers have zero fireballing fastball relievers.

Sinker

Ronald Belisario – .225 TAv

Jamey Wright – .258
Randy Choate – .262
Todd Coffey – .263
Brandon League – .280
Mike MacDougal – .342
Shawn Tolleson – .395

To have everybody know the pitch is coming and to still beat hitters with it is amazing.

Cutter

Kenley Jansen – .187 TAv

Javy Guerra – .208
Scott Elbert – .242
Jamey Wright – .258

Matt Guerrier actually had a .139, but he barely met the minimum and Kenley Jansen’s cutter is his main pitch and was still below .200, which is silly. Also, I’m biased and wanted to show that GIF. Deal with it.

Curve

Jamey Wright – .171 TAv

Javy Guerra – .271

Slider

Randy Choate – .058 TAv

*Visual Is Above*

Ronald Belisario – .121
Brandon League – .147
Shawn Tolleson – .206
Todd Coffey – .214
Jamey Wright – .215
Kenley Jansen – .236

Unfair to lefties, really.

Change

None Qualified

Splitter

Brandon League – .096 TAv

*Visual Is Above*

When he has got his command working, it’s a filthy, filthy pitch.

Yes, this is the final installment of the 2012 Season Review for the Dodgers, and if you want to catch up on the others, then you can check out this tag here.

Otherwise, in the tables listed below, I have calculated the WAR (along with its components), value, and surplus value of every player on the Dodgers payroll in 2012.

It’s not meant to be taken literally (“A.J. Ellis is a better player than Matt Kemp!“), but I always learn stuff about the team that I hadn’t previously realized when I do it.

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The three best players on the Dodgers, according to WAR, were A.J. Ellis, Matt Kemp, and Andre Ethier, in order. The most valuable players, according to surplus value, were A.J. Ellis, Luis Cruz, and Mark Ellis.

Best hitters? Kemp, Ethier, and A.J. Ellis. Best baserunners? Dee Gordon, Shane Victorino, and Hanley Ramirez. Best fielders? Mark Ellis, Jerry Hairston Jr., and Cruz.

The three worst players on the Dodgers, according to WAR, were Gordon, Juan Rivera, and Alex Castellanos. The least valuable players, according to surplus value (excluding dead money), were Juan Uribe, James Loney, and Rivera.

Worst hitters? Gordon, Tony Gwynn Jr., and Uribe. Worst baserunners? A.J. Ellis, Adrian Gonzalez, and Matt Treanor. Worst fielders? Gordon, Kemp, Ramirez.

In related news, did you realize the Dodgers are STILL paying Juan Pierre? Good grief.

The three best pitchers on the Dodgers, according to WAR, were Clayton Kershaw, Chad Billingsley, and Chris Capuano, in order. The most valuable pitchers, according to surplus value, were Kershaw, Kenley Jansen, and Capuano.

The three worst pitchers on the Dodgers, according to WAR, were John Ely, Matt Guerrier, and Mike MacDougal. The least valuable players, according to surplus value (excluding dead money), were Ted Lilly, Guerrier, and Ely.

In related news, you can see why the Dodgers want to upgrade their rotation, as the team defense was decidedly average, but the staff RA WAR outperformed their FIP WAR by six wins.

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If there are any questions, let me know below.

Kenley Jansen

Kenley Jansen entered 2012 as the set-up man with elite stuff, freed up to face the opponents’ best hitters should they be due up before the ninth inning. It was the perfect scenario, considering the closer role is a vastly overrated entity. Though Jansen was slotted correctly, he quickly found himself as the closer following some early struggles in that role by Javy Guerra.

Jansen closed 2012 with his third-straight dominant season, posting a 2.40 FIP and 1.81 SIERA while whiffing a magnificent 13.71/9 IP. He appeared in a career-high 65 games and 65 innings, and though he allowed a few more long-balls (six homers after three in 2011 and none in 2010), he more importantly cut down impressively on his free passes for a third consecutive campaign (5.00/4.36/3.05 per nine innings). Also of note is his continued ability to induce infield popups, which has always been excellent (16% in 2010 & 10.9% in 2011), as he reached a new career best in 2012 (19.4 IFFB%).

To put it another way, as infield popups are essentially as effective as strikeouts, Jansen “whiffed” roughly 60% of the hitters he faced in 2012. That is insane, obviously.

Though all has been well from a between-the-lines perspective, Jansen has seen his short career put in jeopardy multiple times due to a heart ailment that has afflicted him for parts of the 2011 regular season, Spring Training of 2012, and most recently the 2012 regular season. While Jansen has thankfully been able to return from all three bouts, the irregular heartbeat has been recurring, which is troublesome for his health and career prospects.

Jansen and the Dodgers have taken action though, as Kenley recently underwent heart surgery to correct the problem. All seems well thus far, as no complications from the surgery have been revealed, and all reports indicate he’ll be ready to go for 2013. He’ll recuperate for at least three months prior to resuming baseball activities, and with his electric stuff, fantastic ability to get hitters to swing-and-miss, and three straight seasons of improving WAR (1.1/1.3/1.9), the sky is the limit for the former backstop as he continues to refine his new craft.

Brandon League

Acquired for Leon Landry and Logan Bawcom, Brandon League arrived having been stripped of his closer duties in Seattle. His 2012 with the Mariners was a season typical of your average middle reliever, as League was fanning only 5.44 per nine while walking far too many (3.83/9 IP), and had a 3.45 FIP and 4.43 SIERA. I was against the trade when it happened and League did nothing to assuage my mind in his first few outings, as he was charged with six earned runs through his first seven games with Los Angeles.

League rebounded to end 2012 strongly though, allowing one earned run from August 21 on. His strikeout rate ticked up in LA to 8.89/9 IP, the highest it had been since 2009, though he walked even more at 4.61/9
IP. His new-found success was attributed to mechanical flaws that were corrected by Rick Honeycutt and his staff.

Whether that’s true and whether his success carries over into the future or not, the 29-year-old heads into free agency banking that teams will be looking at his recent performance over his career track record that consists of 6.71 K/9 IP, 3.10 BB/9 IP, a 3.81 FIP, and a WAR that’s eclipsed 1.0 twice.

Ronald Belisario

After a time spent pretending to be Tony Montana, Ronald Belisario returned to the States and MLB in 2012. Following a 25-game suspension for violating baseball’s drug policy, Belisario made his season debut in early May and would go on to appear in a bullpen-high 68 games and 71 innings.

Belisario posted a 3.09 FIP and 2.80 SIERA, and after starting the year out-pitching his peripherals and shiny ERA, had a very good season after his year off. He fanned just shy of a batter per inning while walking 3.68 per nine and inducing a mess of ground balls (64.5 GB%), which resulted in just three homers allowed in ’12.

Belisario, after all of his troubles, is line for a nice raise from the $480,000 he made on a one-year deal in 2012. He qualified for Super Two status and is arbitration eligible, and he will be an integral part of the pen in 2013.

Javy Guerra

Javy Guerra entered 2012 as the Dodgers closer, though not the most talented reliever on the team, which is perfectly fine and is actually my preferred method of bullpen management. Following a rocky start and a liner to the head, Guerra was removed in favor of Jansen in early May.

After allowing eight earned runs in his first 14 games, which included three blown saves and a pair of losses, Guerra settled down before succumbing to a knee injury that ended his season in early September.

Though Guerra’s season is largely viewed as a failure by many, his 2012 was, in actuality, little different from his 2011 season. His strikeout rate increased (7.33/7.40), his HR/9 IP rate improved (0.39/0.20), and his FIP (3.30/3.34) and WAR remained stable (0.9/0.8).

Guerra’s “struggles” were two-fold. First, the self-inflicted portion: Guerra walked too many guys in 2012, as his BB/9 IP jumped from a high 3.47 to a terrible 4.60 per nine. That must be corrected for Javy to see more success. Second, his BABIP increased to .321 from .261. In other words, after getting lucky in 2011, 2012 saw that luck shift entirely the other way. There is almost certainly a happy medium, and in that place, Guerra is a solid contributor to the pen as a middle reliever.

Scott Elbert

After an excellent 2011 that ended with a new established role in the pen, Scott Elbert finished 2012 on the DL with an elbow injury that felled him from late August on. I wouldn’t be shocked if the elbow bothered him all year, as his numbers fell across the board.

Elbert struck out less per nine (9.18/7.99), gave up more homers (0.27/0.83), and saw a significant drop in FIP (2.73/3.80) and SIERA (3.23/3.76). The lefty also uncharacteristically struggled against his fellow southpaws in comparison with his 2011 success (.271/.342/.342/.684 after a .191/.267/.227/. 494 slash line the year before).

With Randy Choate a possibility to return if he and the club share a mutual interest, and young Paco Rodriguez emerging as another option, Elbert’s health and success in Spring Training will go a long way in determining his future with the club after years and years of injuries finally appeared to be behind him.

Shawn Tolleson

Shawn Tolleson, the club’s top relief prospect heading into 2012, got the call in early June before getting the Blake DeWitt treatment and shuffling between The Show and the minors. Though he moved around, he ended up appearing in 40 games and just under 40 innings.

Known for his swing-and-miss ability and domination of the minors, Tolleson whiffed 9.32/9 IP while posting a 4.08 FIP and 3.78 SIERA. He did struggle with his control at times, walking 4.78 per nine, and he allowed almost a homer per nine.

Five outings — in which he allowed between two and four runs in each — skewed the 24-year-old righty’s numbers a bit, though not as much as his massive struggles against the 68 lefties he faced, who hit a combined .316/.426/.471/.897 against the Texan. On the other side of the coin, Shawn was death to righties, holding them to a .152/.244/.207/.453 line.

Those lefty struggles not withstanding, the future is exceptionally bright for Clayton Kershaw‘s former teammate. Tolleson will have a prominent role in the pen going forward — whether that role begins at the outset of 2013 or not –  and a young pen featuring Jansen/Tolleson/Rodriguez/Guerra should have fans excited.

Randy Choate

Acquired in the Hanley Ramirez deal, Choate arrived with the reputation of a lefty specialist (.201/.278/.252/.530 career) and continued to dominate his brethren in 2012, limiting them to a .158/.243/.190/.433 slash line.

Though he held lefties down in 2012, Choate was mediocre overall after arriving, posting a 4.89 FIP, 4.16 SIERA, and a negative WAR (-0.1). Most troubling was his propensity for issuing free passes, to the tune of 6.08 per nine in his 36 appearances.

Paco Rodriguez

Just 21 and fresh out of college in the spring of 2012, Paco Rodriguez found himself in 11 games down the stretch and whiffed a very impressive 8.1 per nine over those 6.2 innings. He posted a 3.09 FIP and 4.17 SIERA — as well as a .143/.200/.133/.333 slash line against lefties — in his very small sample size of a career, and holds the distinction of being the first 2012 draftee to debut in The Show.

Rodriguez enters 2013 with just north of 25 professional innings under his belt, and could very likely open 2013 on the major-league roster. Paco’s immediate future hinges on Elbert’s health, the signing of some other free agent lefty specialist, and his 2013 Spring Training performance.

While he has stuff to improve upon (like his control), if he can solidify a spot in the pen he would provide the Dodgers with another lefty and a cheap bullpen option with a ton of upside.

Jamey Wright

Jamey Wright, who made the team out of Spring Training after signing a minor-league deal, surprised most with a solid campaign, surpassing expectations in his 66 appearances and 67.2 innings pitched.

Wright fanned 7.18 per nine while posting a 3.39 FIP and 3.15 SIERA. His splits were quite wacky all the way around, as he allowed southpaws to get on-base more, but righties knocked him around in terms of extra-base hits (.252/.365/.230/.595 versus LH & .283/.337/.329/.666 versus RH).

As alluded to above, Wright did struggle with his control, as he allowed around 4.0 BB/9. He did a great job, however, of keeping the ball in the park — 0.27 HR/9 — which saved him from those walks becoming more damaging. Hitters actually benefited from a bit of luck against him with a .324 BABIP, but Wright’s strong propensity for inducing ground balls (67.3%) and infield popups (12.0% IFFB) allowed him to escape his control problems relatively unscathed.

Having lived off minor-league deals, which he turned into major-league roster spots, for most of the past decade, Wright will head into 2012 — his age-38 season — with a strong likelihood of obtaining a major-league contract. Earning just under $1.5 million last year, Wright will probably receive a small raise, and the Dodgers could do a lot worse.

Odds & Ends

Matt Guerrier spent most of 2012 on the shelf with right elbow inflammation, but managed to return late in the season and appeared in 16 games totaling 14 innings. It did not go well. He pitched to a 6.31 FIP and 4.86 SIERA while walking seven, hitting a batter, and allowing a total of 16 baserunners, six earned runs, and 56 total bases against.

He has a year remaining — at $3.75 million — on the ridiculous three-year deal that Ned Colletti signed him to in late-2010. Whether he has a place in the bullpen though, considering the superior arms around him, is another story entirely.

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Josh Lindblom, prior to being dealt to Philadelphia in the Shane Victorino trade, struggled despite some solid peripherals following a breakout 2011. Though he struck out 8.12/9 IP while walking 3.40/9 IP, Lindblom put up a 5.07 FIP, though his SIERA was a fine 3.66.

What really killed him was the long-ball, as following a 2011 in which he didn’t allow a single homer in almost 30 innings, Josh was touched up for nine dingers before being traded.

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I honestly forgot Mike MacDougal was a Dodger in 2012, but he began the year on a ludicrous guaranteed one-year major-league deal. He quickly flamed out, lasting seven games and 5.2 innings too long. In that short time, he allowed 15 baserunners, five earned runs, and 32 total bases.

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Greg Zakwin is the founder of the site Plaschke Thy Sweater Is Argyle. Follow him on Twitter @ArgyledPlaschke.

Adrian Gonzalez

When the Dodgers acquired Adrian Gonzalez from the Boston Red Sox, I saw a plethora of Dodger fans begin to assert wild and crazy things. Not only were the Dodgers guaranteed of making the playoffs, but they were a lock to make the World Series on the back of a hero who was absolutely the right acquisition because of the dubious logic of him fitting in with the community and what not.

With all of the variables in baseball, I found these claims to be ridiculous. Putting aside the unforeseen injuries to Matt Kemp, Chad Billingsley, and Kenley Jansen, Gonzalez’s acquisition did not portend to an immediate success because of the small sample size of the remaining season and because it wasn’t really the same A-Gon of pre-2012.

No, this A-Gon was potentially still dealing with ramifications from shoulder and back injuries, had seen his power sapped, and had seemingly forgotten how to draw a walk (10.6% career, 10.3% in 2011, 6.1% in 2012). While an obvious upgrade over James Loney‘s corpse, success was no sure thing, as he was in the midst of his worst professional season since becoming a full-time starter. What would end up disappointing people in 2012 was two-fold: far too high expectations and a stretch in which Gonzalez was atrocious at the plate, to the tune of a .235/.292/.346/.638 line over a 20-game span.

Following an MVP-caliber 2011 in which he hit .338/.410/.548/.958 with a .407 wOBA, .210 ISO, 154 wRC+, and 75 extra-base hits, A-Gon’s slash line fell to .299/.344/.463/.807 with a .346 wOBA, .164 ISO, 115 wRC+, and 66 extra-base hits. Again, those numbers still trump anything his predecessor in Blue could dream of, and his numbers after the trade still stand above Loney’s, but will they be enough in the long-run for such a high-priced player? It’s yet to be seen.

On the positive side, Gonzalez was still a very productive player, no doubt, saving ~15.5 runs with his excellent glove and posting a WAR of ~3.4. Also, Adrian did finish strong, mashing to the tune of a .330/.365/.495/.860 line. As he won’t even turn 31 until May, I expect Gonzalez to rebound and be better with the lumber, ending up closer to a ~4 WAR player, at least for a season or two.

James Loney

Prior to his trade to Red Sox Nation, Loney was having yet another putrid season, hitting .254/.302/.344/.646 with a .278 wOBA and .090 ISO. Even his most ardent fans were less boisterous about how the #RBIMachine would bust out at any moment, and though the financial ramifications of the Boston deal worry me, and the deal as a whole doesn’t thrill me, I was very pleased to see the Sox take him away.

Loney leaves Los Angeles as a failed prospect who could never hit enough to warrant his job at a premium offensive position. The only real role in baseball that he has left is as a late-inning defensive replacement, as he saved ~3.3 runs in 2012 prior to his move east.

Juan Rivera

Rivera was the right-handed half of the #Fail platoon Don Mattingly trotted out at first prior to Gonzalez’s arrival. He started 39 games and appeared in 54 at first, hitting just .226/.268/.404/.672 while being a liability on the basepaths (-1.4 BsR) and with a first baseman’s glove (-17.6 UZR/150 in over 300 innings). He managed to land in that rarefied air of posting a negative fWAR, clocking in at -0.8 for the year.

How he could possibly receive anything other than a minor-league invitation to Spring Training in 2013 from any team is beyond me, but if anyone can make that theoretical minor-league deal into a guaranteed major-league one, it would be Uncle Ned.

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Greg Zakwin is the founder of the site Plaschke Thy Sweater Is Argyle. Follow him on Twitter @ArgyledPlaschke.

Javy Guerra, following an injury-plagued 2012 season, underwent arthroscopic shoulder surgery on his throwing shoulder. His laundry list of injuries this year ranged from an oblique to a knee to his shoulder to his head.

The Dodgers expect him to be fully ready to go by Spring Training, and he’ll be a solid contributor in middle to late relief yet again.

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In brighter news, Chad Billingsley‘s rehab continues to progress well, as the righty threw off a mound for the second time since being shut down with a tear in the UCL in his right elbow. Tommy John surgery is still a possibility, but any positive sign is a good one.

As Chad noted yesterday, this is a tricky injury that can’t really be fully written off as a non-factor until Bills makes it through 2013 unscathed, because having a previously torn ligament in the elbow is certainly at a higher risk for re-injury.

Also included in that link is an update on Kenley Jansen and his heart surgery.

Baseball America: Dodgers have hired Patrick Guerrero as their Latin American Coordinator.

Guerrero, who lives in the Dominican Republic, will run the organization’s scouting throughout Latin America. The Mariners had fired Guerrero as their Latin American coordinator earlier this month at the same time they announced that Bob Engle, their vice president of international scouting, had decided to leave the organization. Seattle’s decision to fire Guerrero, according to Baseball America’s sources, was made above Engle, an unusual move for a Latin American scout. Both Guerrero and Engle had been with the Mariners since 2000.

Baseball America: Bob Engle has been added to the Dodgers staff as the Vice President Of International Scouting.

The Dodgers have made more changes to their international scouting department, most notably with today’s hiring of Bob Engle as their vice president of international scouting.

Bob Elliot reported last night on Twitter that the Dodgers were going to hire Engle, whose contract with the Mariners as their vice president of international scouting ended yesterday.

Word in the industry is that there could be more major changes coming to the team’s front office, but the team has already confirmed that Engle will bring aboard several of his former lieutenants with the Mariners to work for the Dodgers.

He’ll bring on scouts that have worked with him with the Mariners.

Three other scouts who had worked for Engle in Seattle will join his staff with the Dodgers. Pat Kelly is coming in as the team’s Pacific Rim coordinator after holding the same title in Seattle. Jamie Storvick, who resides in Taiwan, will also be heavily involved in the team’s Pacific Rim work. Gene Grimaldi will help lead the team’s efforts in Europe. The Dodgers are also bringing in Mike Tosar, who had been out of baseball but also previously worked with Engle in Seattle, as a special assignment scout.

Dodgers continue to add quality staff, which can only be seen as a positive.

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MLB.com: Todd Coffey, Juan Rivera, and Matt Treanor had their options declined by the team.

The Dodgers declined the 2013 contract options for pitcher Todd Coffey, outfielder Juan Rivera and catcher Matt Treanor on Monday.

Coffey, who missed the second half of the season after undergoing his second Tommy John elbow reconstruction surgery, was bought out of a $2.5 million salary for $300,000.

Rivera, who shuttled between left field and first base until the trades for Shane Victorino and Adrian Gonzalez, was bought out of a $4 million salary for $500,000.

Treanor, who saw only sporadic action backing up A.J. Ellis, was bought out of a $950,000 salary for $150,000.

No shockers here. We’re all just glad they’re gone, I figure.

Los Angeles Times: Chad Billingsley seems to be on track to pitch in 2013.

“It looks like he’s going to be ready for the 2013 season,” said Dave Stewart, Billingsley’s agent.

Billingsley touched 94 mph with his fastball and threw an assortment of pitches, including his four-seamer, two-seamer, curveball and changeup. Billingsley threw 35 to 40 pitches.

One still has to wonder how long this will last though. I haven’t heard of too many success stories in regards to rehabbing torn elbow ligaments.

MLB.com: Kenley Jansen is on the road to recovery after heart surgery.

“I feel so much better now than I did at the end of the season,” said Jansen, who has recovered enough from last week’s heart surgery to take part in a Halloween candy giveaway on Monday at the Home Depot Center soccer stadium.

“I was dragging all day long at the end,” he said. “I can tell I’ve got so much more energy. Now I look at this soccer field and just want to get out there and start playing. I’m feeling so good.”

Jansen underwent a successful three-hour ablation surgery performed by Dr. Koonwalee Nademanee at White Memorial Hospital on Oct. 23. During the procedure, the abnormal tissue in his heart was identified and then cauterized to stop the erratic electrical signals sent from the area.

Jansen said his heart went into an irregular beat when the surgery started, helping doctors quickly pinpoint the areas needing attention. He said he still has some stiffness in his groin area, where two small incisions were made, but otherwise feels better than he had.

“It wasn’t scary at all,” said the 25-year-old. “I just wanted to get it over with. I feel it’s a relief and it will be good for me for the rest of my life. I just wanted to get it done, and I know this doctor is one of the great experts and I have a lot of confidence in him.”

Baseball aside, I just hope this ends his heart issues once and for all.

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FanGraphs: Jeff Sullivan thinks that Brandon League‘s contract is an example of inefficiency by the team.

Yet I might just be skipping around the major point. Brandon League has closer-type stuff, and the Dodgers want League to close, but the Dodgers already had an effective closer in Kenley Jansen. Granted, Jansen just underwent heart surgery, but his outlook is very good and he intends to be at full strength come spring training. Last year Jansen had 99 strikeouts in 65 appearances. He’s dominant when he’s pitching, and on top of that, he’s cheap. So the Dodgers aren’t paying League to fill a gaping void. That makes this move seem more unnecessary.

And League has supposedly figured it out before, only to lose it again within weeks or months. The fact that he had to re-discover the feel for his splitter says that, previously, he has lost the feel for his splitter after having had it. League, at his absolute best, is a very good reliever worth millions of dollars, but he’s seldom at his absolute best and he’s hardly been the model of consistency. The Dodgers didn’t just make a godawful move. They made a move that’s easier to criticize than defend. Individual inefficiencies aren’t a big deal, but individual inefficiencies do add up, and the Dodgers seem to be adding them up.

Baseball Prospectus: R.J. Anderson doesn’t think history will view the deal favorably.

Handing out a three-year deal to any non-elite reliever is asking for a lousy return on investment—ditto the $7.5 million average annual value. Why then are the Dodgers marching into the land of poor ROI? It might be that Colletti suspects the rest of the league, flush with cash, will hit the market with similar ferocity; causing an apparent overpay to blend in with the norm in the coming weeks. The chicken-or-the-egg scenario here is whether Colletti’s attempt to beat the market inadvertently set the market, but that’s a topic for another day. In a market with so many right-handed relief options available, it seems fair to ask if the endowment effect fooled the Dodgers into liking League more than they should.

In all likelihood, no one, save League and his agency, will stamp this move with a gold star in three years. You can make sense of it from the Dodgers’ point of view if you want to, however.

Sounds familiar, so I guess I’m not the only one thinking along those lines.

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FanGraphs: Does throwing a lot of strikes indicate a pitcher who is at less risk for injury? A case study by Jeff Zimmerman seems to suggest that.

Dodgers closer Kenley Jansen underwent heart surgery on Tuesday to correct an irregular heartbeat, a procedure we were all aware would occur during the offseason.

Jansen’s heart problems have sidelined him for stretches during the 2011 regular season, Spring Training of 2012, and the 2012 regular season. Ken Gurnick reports that Jansen will now be out for at least three months as he recuperates.

It doesn’t sound like there were any complications, nor were there any indications this could be a lingering problem, so he should be ready to go for Spring Training.

Clayton Kershaw may need surgery on his right hip and he could miss not only the rest of this season but the start of next season as well, according to Dylan Hernandez of the Los Angeles Times.

If Kershaw must undergo surgery to repair his ailing right hip, he isn’t expected to be pitching in the major leagues until the middle of May, according to people familiar with his condition who were not authorized to speak publicly about it.

Kershaw’s decision on whether to have an operation will be made after Kershaw receives a second opinion from Dr. Bryan Kelly on Tuesday in New York. Kershaw was unable to make his scheduled start for the Dodgers on Sunday.

The team fears he may have a torn labrum that would require surgery.

My opinion on Clayton is the same as it is regarding Matt Kemp: the team should shut them both down. 2012 is not the last year baseball will be played, and this team will be better next year simply by having some of these new pieces on the roster to begin the season. Their future years of service are far more important than a single stretch run in a season that has seen the Dodgers somehow stay in the race despite the unluckiness of multiple serious injuries to vital cogs.

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Scott Elbert was speculated to be returning as soon as Tuesday, but he’ll be out for the season and is set to undergo elbow surgery due to persistent problems.

Left-hander Scott Elbert is scheduled to undergo a season-ending operation Wednesday to clean up his throwing elbow.

The surgery will be performed by team physician Dr. Neal ElAttrache. Elbert is expected to be ready for the start of spring training.

Elbert last pitched Aug. 26. The next day, he was put on the disabled list for the second time this season.

Elbert pitched a simulated game Friday.

“The next day, he went out to play catch and it was back, same thing,” Manager Don Mattingly said. “So we knew he was done.”

As unfair as it might be, Paco Rodriguez now becomes a key piece in the bullpen despite being in college to start the year.

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Kenley Jansen is likely to return on Tuesday. Jansen’s doctors have cleared him to stop taking blood-thinners.

If he’s back to normal then he’ll be an asset even if there’s initial rust, but something rubs me the wrong way about risking anything in regards to this problem. After all, we’re talking about a guy’s life here, screw baseball.

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Chad Billingsley‘s elbow is progressing well and he’s slated to start a throwing program in the coming weeks.

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Ted Lilly, rehabbing a shoulder injury, will have arthroscopic surgery on his pitching shoulder. According to head trainer Sue Falsone, he will be ready for Spring Training in 2013, the final year of a three-year contract.

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Dee Gordon was reinstated after missing 50 games and spending a couple of months on the 60-day DL with a torn ligament in his right thumb. Dee recently completed a rehab stint in Albuquerque.

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Room was made for Dee on the 40-man when the team placed Adam Kennedy on the 60-day DL with a groin strain.

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Don Mattingly has declared Javy Guerra likely out for the year, as was suspected.

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In minor-league injury news, Blake Smith, Gustavo Gomez, Brandon Martinez, Luis Vasquez, Steve Cilladi, Chris O’Brien, Angelo Ponte, Jharel Cotton, Sawil Gonzalez, Francisco Villa, and Matt Laney all landed on either the 7-day or 60-day DL.

Clayton Kershaw was scratched from his last start due to a hip injury, for which he received a cortisone shot. His start was taken by Joe Blanton. Clayton hopes to return and start on Tuesday.

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Kenley Jansen, barring any unforeseen setback, will pitch again this season before undergoing offseason surgery on his heart. He won’t pitch within the next ten days – at the least – as he waits for his blood-thinner medication to leave his system.

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Chad Billingsley had another platelet injection in his right elbow before seeing his season end as he was placed on the 60-day DL. Paco Rodriguez was called up and took Bills’ roster spot. Now all that remains is whether or not he ends up needing surgery. Bills will resume throwing in two weeks, after tests revealed a partial tear of the UCL in the aforementioned right elbow.

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Randy Choate took a grounder off of his pitching hand but should be fine, as he said a couple of fingers were struck but no major damage came from it. With both Scott Elbert and Ted Lilly rehabbing and Paco a rookie, the Dodgers are short on southpaws in the pen, making Choate’s continued health vital.

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Javy Guerra was placed on the 15-day DL with an oblique strain, and there’s a real chance his season is over.

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Adam Kennedy injured his groin and is likely out for the season, saying he “felt a pop.”

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If Ted Lilly – who threw a simulated game earlier in the week – returns, it will be in a relief role.

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Jerry Hairston Jr. is scheduled to undergo surgery on his ailing hip on Monday.

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Chris Withrow was transferred to the 60-day DL after a momentary call-up in order to allow Bobby Abreu to be placed back on the 40-man roster.

Matt Kemp left Tuesday’s game in Colorado after smashing into the center field wall, somehow managing to stay in, and soon thereafter diving for a ball and landing awkwardly. If you’re so inclined, GIFs of the collision can be seen here. Tests revealed no concussion or concussion symptoms, and Matt walked away from the incident with nothing more than a bruised left knee. He returned to the lineup a few days after the frightening incident.

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Kenley Jansen was unavailable for the series in Colorado after experiencing recurring issues with his heart, which felled him for a month or so in 2011 and earlier in 2012 during Spring Training. These new issues are related to the old ones, reports Dylan Hernandez. The Dodgers and Jansen await test results, as his season could be over.

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Chad Billingsley‘s season also hangs in the balance as he awaits what could be season-ending surgery. These fears were expressed earlier in the week by Stan Kasten. Bills’ right elbow was treated with an injection of platelet-rich plasma in an effort to avoid missing the stretch run. Tommy John surgery seems like a possibility if our worst fears come to fruition.

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Scott Elbert was placed on the 15-day DL once again with left elbow inflammation. Shawn Tolleson was recalled to take his place. Don Mattingly is cautiously optimistic that Elbert could return when the 15-day period concludes.

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Matt Guerrier was activated from the 60-day DL, sending Josh Wall back to AAA and Dee Gordon from the 15-day DL to the 60-day DL in the process. Gordon won’t be gone for long though, as he is eligible to return now that rosters have expanded.

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Alfredo Silverio was transferred to the 60-day DL in order to free up a spot on the 40-man roster to allow for John Ely‘s call-up. Silverio is on the DL after suffering multiple injuries in a car crash earlier this year.

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In minor league injury news, Arismendy Ozoria, Luis Vasquez, Mike Antonini, Jarret Martin, Aaron Miller, Greg Wilborn, Casio Grider, Charlie Mirabal, Bobby Coyle, and Tyler Henson were all placed on the 7-day DL, while a host of others – most notably Chris Reed and Bobby Abreu – were activated from the 7-day DL.

Now that rosters have expanded, let the speculation on who gets the September call begin!

Pump the brakes a bit though, because unfortunately for the people who wish to see young players show their stuff: 1) the 40-man roster is full 2) guys on the 60-day DL are due to return 3) um … the team just traded away all of the top prospects that were close to contributing.

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One of the primary issues is that Rubby De La Rosa and Jerry Sands are still on the Dodgers 40-man roster, so it creates a bit of a mess in terms of roster spots. This is especially true because Ted Lilly (maybe) and Dee Gordon are set to return, which means guys will have to get designated just to fit them in. Perhaps Chad Billingsley, Kenley Jansen, or Scott Elbert could be placed on the 60-day DL, but that creates more holes, not less.

Either way, guys like Adam Kennedy, Juan Uribe, Matt Angle, Elian Herrera, and Stephen Fife might not want to get too comfortable on the 40-man, depending on what direction the team decides on. However, due to the roster crunch, those hoping for players not on the 40-man roster to get called — like John Ely, Tony Gwynn Jr., and Bobby Abreu — might be left disappointed.

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Among those who I feel could help the team immediately are Tim Federowicz, Javy Guerra, Josh Wall, and Alex Castellanos. I already went over the reasons Guerra could contribute, as I believed sending him down to begin with was foolish. Wall, despite just an average year at AAA, has the raw stuff catch fire and help stabilize a suddenly shaky bullpen. Federowicz is not as good a hitter as his .296/.371/.465/.836 line in AAA would indicate, but he’s a good defender and is an upgrade over Matt Treanor right now. Castellanos could provide right-handed thump off the bench, as his .338/.431/.610/1.041 line in AAA would somewhat indicate. I’d rather see him get a chance than continue to run Juan Rivera out there, that’s for sure.

Other possibilities on the 40-man are Scott Van Slyke and Fife. Van Slyke could do much the same as Castellanos, but I have less confidence in his bat. Still, he can hardly be a worse pinch hitting option than Uribe or Kennedy or Nick Punto. I’m not sure Fife would fit in the bullpen, but if he’s not going to get designated then he could be called up to use as a long man.

Ely, Gwynn, and Abreu could all help, but I have to think they’re long shots due to the roster crunch reasons I mentioned earlier. Personally, I would have no problem designating about a half dozen players, but the team has somehow managed to resist doing that all year, so I don’t see why they would start now. With that said, if a starter goes down with injury, Ely deserves a chance after putting up a 3.20 ERA in 168.2 innings with solid peripherals in that league. Gwynn has put up a .304/.400/.393/.793 line at AAA and I really feel like he has to be added to the 40-man and called up somehow, if for no other reason than to pinch run. If Abreu’s healthy, he could probably do what Shane Victorino is producing in left right now sans the defense, so he could be a useful bench guy.

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Assuming Billingsley, Jansen, and Elbert return from injury, and that Gordon will be back but not Lilly, I would call on Federowicz, Guerra, Wall, Castellanos, Van Slyke, Gwynn, and Abreu while designating Uribe, Angle, and Herrera.

So Rubby De La Rosa is back with the Dodgers a little over a year after undergoing Tommy John surgery, and he certainly deserves every bit of the promotion. In the minors, he allowed 0 runs in 12 innings while striking out 12 and walking 3. More importantly, he was sitting in the mid-90s and touching the upper register when needed.

The part I find puzzling though is that the team optioned Javy Guerra to make room for him. I realize that it was either him or Shawn Tolleson, because they were the two that had options and rosters expand in 10 days, but I still find the logic confusing.

With the rest of the bullpen (sans Kenley Jansen) struggling of late, Guerra has put up 11.1 innings of scoreless relief with 13 strikeouts in his last nine appearances. The last time he allowed a run was July 26th. Similarly, Tolleson hasn’t allowed a run since July 22nd.

The predictable defense for demoting either of them is “well they have options”. Which is fine, but if we’re going with the philosophy that the Shane Victorino/Joe Blanton/Brandon League trades were worth it even if they only total a half win improvement because “it’s a dead heat”, then how logical is it to demote your hottest relievers in a bullpen that’s currently struggling to stay afloat?

Some of you know that I’ve followed and have been a fan of Rubby since he showed velocity in the complex leagues as a prospect, but there’s no guarantee he’s going to be lights out either. Point being, if you’re going to justify trading away assets for the most marginal of gains in the context of 2012, then that same attitude should apply to these roster moves as well, especially when there’s considerable dead weight on the roster that nobody would miss.

In case you missed it last night, this is how the Dodgers lost, and it’s … failtacular. That’s the only way I can describe it.

There’s so much to observe in that one GIF/play that it was hard to absorb at the time. Dodgers fans were left asking themselves “What the fuck just happened?” even hours after the game was over.

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So what were the fails?

1) Kenley Jansen failed by not calling time after stepping off the mound to kick dirt off his shoes.

2) Kenley Jansen failed by completely turning his back on Everth Cabrera and ignoring him while cleaning his shoes.

At least he owned up to his mistakes after the game.

Jansen: “Dirt got stuck on my shoe. I can’t pitch like that. I forgot to call timeout.” #Dodgers

— Jimmy Bramlett (@JimmyBramlett) July 15, 2012

3) Kenley Jansen failed by making a poor throw home.

4) Greg Gibson failed by being out of position to make the call at home.

5) Greg Gibson failed for punching out the runner at home when the ball was thrown to the backstop.

The confusing call affected the run of play.

More Jansen: “I saw the umpire call him out. I froze from there and tried to go back into it.” #Dodgers

— Jimmy Bramlett (@JimmyBramlett) July 15, 2012

6) A.J. Ellis failed by forgetting to catch the ball first and apply the tag second.

7) A.J. Ellis failed by not going after the ball immediately, instead seemingly pausing to admire the view of the backstop for a split second before reacting.

8) Kenley Jansen failed by not covering home plate, allowing Will Venable to score the winning run.

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If any of those things are different, the play probably never happens the way it does, which makes it quite remarkable, all things considered.

The part that gets me most though is that it was a pretty stupid play by Everth Cabrera. I mean the winning run is on second with two outs and he basically gambled that the first three things or so on the fail list would happen. Because as the umpire told all of us loud and clear, a decent throw gets him and ends the game.

Anyway, you can argue with a few of those fails if you want, whatever, but it was just a terrible combination of execution by just about everybody involved in the play except for Will Venable, who did amazing work to score.