So yeah, along with this fail throw, that GIF above about sums up Ted Lilly‘s night for the Dodgers…

…but those GIFS (and the ones with Yasiel Puig) sum up the overall evening for the team.

By far the best part? Even though Carlos Quentin did homer, here’s how the game ended:

Carlos Quentin losing his temper?

Well I’ll be.

In six short days with the team in 2013, Dee Gordon has already showcased everything that once made him a top prospect and everything that made him one of the worst players in the MLB last year.

It’s a tiny sample, yet he’s managed to fit in so much amazement and failure that his performance has been noteworthy, regardless. In a way, he’s proven both his supporters and detractors correct so far.

Me? I’m neutral on his call-up, because while I think there’s certainly more upside to him than Justin Sellers or Luis Cruz or Juan Uribe, there’s also downside.

Generally speaking, Sellers and Cruz might be around 0 WAR players. Maybe they’re 0.5 WAR guys, maybe they’re -0.5 WAR guys, but at the end of the day, they should fall in around there. Fringe utility players, basically.

Gordon, on the other hand, has always had an upside around a 3 WAR player, but his downside, as seen last year, is that of around a -3 WAR player. Unlike Cruz and Sellers and Uribe, his defense can be atrocious. Thus, if he hits like they do — and he certainly did last year — it’s two negatives instead of just one.

—–

Hitting

He’s hit .316/.409/.421/.830 thus far, yes, but it comes with a .429 BABIP, which is high even for somebody of his speed. The promising part though is his new patience, but the trade-off appears to be more strikeouts, which happen far too often for the slap-and-run type of hitter he is.

Undoubtedly, this aspect of his game has been his strength so far, but whether it continues over a significant sample or not has always been the issue.

Fielding

He’s shown range and the ability to get to balls that not many can (GIF #1), but he’s also shown the tendency to make careless errors and have a lack of fundamental skills (GIF #2/#3/#4).

On only one of the three misplays featured here was he marked with an error, but it’s still poor defense … and it’s only half of the misplays I found.

Baserunning

Electric, right? Look at how he takes all those extra bases and does the little things right and … oh he just ran into three outs in a game? Drat.

—–

Flaws and all, fans understandably tend to side with Dee because of the “wow” moments he brings to the table, stuff that guys with less raw talent simply can’t even fathom doing. Dee is made for mind-blowing bursts of speed and flair that lead to extreme excitement, but he often follows that with lulls of fundamental inadequacy and lack of baseball skills, which is the part people tend to gloss over too easily.

My point? For all the highs and lows so far, his WAR on the year is 0. There’s probably not much more fitting a grade than that.

People fall in love with the explosiveness but tend forget that baseball, for better or worse, is more about the routine and the boring.

For example, Matt Kemp‘s debut was full of flash and flair as well. He bombed seven homers in his first 50 plate appearances, but then got exposed down the stretch due to his lack of refinement. From there, it was the boring things — laying off/hitting hanging breaking balls, working the count, going to right field — that led him to become an MVP-caliber player, not mindlessly hacking and trying to club bombs.

Dee will never get to that level, granted, but at some point I would like to see a hint of progress in the refinement area of his game. Kemp showed that slowly but surely, much like all prospects that pan out do, but the concern is that Dee has been rather stagnant for a while now.

——

Perhaps predictably, articles are being written about how Dee gives this team a “shot in the arm” or a “much needed boost of energy”, but the reality is that’s not the player the Dodgers need him to be. He’s ALWAYS been the “energy guy”, the “tools guy”, the “flash guy”, even last year. What the Dodgers need from him more than anything right now is something he’s never been able to accomplish: stability.

The day he gives the team daily consistency over flashy highlights is the day that I’ll buy in, and I think most others will as well. Until then, though, the Dee Gordon experience will likely continue to be a roller-coaster of alternating cheers and facepalms.

Strap in.

Opening Day for the Dodgers is Monday, and since Spring Training feels like it has taken forever, it’s about damn time. Given the closeness of the start of the season though, it’s a bit odd that there are so many question marks as to what will happen with the roster.

Every team has to deal with decisions on the 24th and 25th man, but it’s rare that a team with World Series hopes is still deciding on the rotation and the left side of the starting infield. Since the team’s starting SS is out for two months and there’s a surplus with eight starting pitchers, it’s anybody’s guess as to how it all shakes out.

Personally though, I have to figure the Opening Day 25-man roster looks something like what you see below.

—–

Starting Lineup

C – A.J. Ellis
1B – Adrian Gonzalez
2B – Mark Ellis
3B – Jerry Hairston Jr.
SS – Luis Cruz
LF – Carl Crawford
CF – Matt Kemp
RF – Andre Ethier

SS – Luis Cruz is a relatively easy choice for me at this spot. He plays solid defense at the position and is the best option available at the moment.

Yes, I’ve read the recent chatter about Justin Sellers getting this spot, which I suppose is possible. However, realistically I can only see that happening if they release Juan Uribe, or they trade both Aaron Harang and Chris Capuano AND go with 11 pitchers, or they roll with no real backup outfielder (Jerry Hairston Jr./Skip Schumaker).

My experience with Ned Colletti and Dodgers roster decision-making has led me to always go with the player who has experience, who is being paid by the team, and who is currently on the 40-man roster. Thus, no Sellers for me.

3B – Jerry Hairston Jr. and Skip Schumaker should platoon here. Hairston doesn’t actually have much of a split (.712 LHP/.694 RHP), but Schumaker does (.762 RHP/.521 LHP). If Don Mattingly plays his cards right here, there an off-chance the Dodgers don’t actually lose much except upside for the two months Hanley’s out, primarily because he plays terrible defense.

The alternative of Sellers’ .607 career MLB OPS, or his ~.700 career MILB OPS outside of the moon base in Albuquerque, is not appealing at all in lieu of an option like this. That logic HAS to win out, right? RIGHT?!

LF – Carl Crawford certainly looks on pace even though his already weak throwing arm looks pathetic right now. Still, he’s swinging a bat and nothing is wrong with his legs, so I can’t see him starting the year on the DL.

—–

Bench

B – Tim Federowicz
B – Nick Punto
B – Skip Schumaker
B – Juan Uribe
B – Alex Castellanos

DL – Hanley Ramirez

IF Bench – The trio of Nick Punto, Schumaker, and Uribe meet Colletti’s three standards, as reviewed above, so they’re basically locks to me. Tim Federowicz makes the team because they cut every other catcher in camp except Matt Wallach, and he’s not making the roster.

OF Bench – Why Alex Castellanos, right? Why over Elian Herrera and Alfredo Amezaga? Amezaga is simple, as he’s not on the 40-man. Herrera, who I don’t think is a quality player anyway, doesn’t provide the potential pop off the bench the Dodgers SORELY lack at the moment. Not putting Castellanos on the bench means the Dodgers would have four hitters with no power … and Uribe, who can’t hit at all.

—–

Starting Rotation

1 – Clayton Kershaw
2 – Zack Greinke
3 – Josh Beckett
4 – Chad Billingsley
5 – Hyun Jin Ryu

The order is jumbled because of injury and what not, but this is what was projected at the end of the off-season, and while it’s been an adventure to get here, it’s basically worked out how it was supposed to.

That said, given the way the schedule looks, it’s possible that Chad Billingsley or Zack Greinke could be put on the DL and have their turn skipped a couple times while they work into shape (Greinke) or recover from injury (Billingsley). Either way though, that would only buy the team 10 games or so to do something before a roster decision would be forced.

—–

Bullpen

CL – Brandon League
ST – Kenley Jansen
RP – Ronald Belisario
RP – J.P Howell
RP – Matt Guerrier
RP – Kevin Gregg
RP – Aaron Harang

DL – Scott Elbert
DL – Ted Lilly

Lefty Reliever – Sorry Paco Rodriguez, you might be better than two, three, or even four pitchers in the bullpen, but you have options, so bye bye.

Veteran Reliever – Kevin Gregg has a 0.87 ERA over 10.1 IP this spring, while Peter Moylan is at a 7.56 ERA in 8.1 IP. Colletti must have a NRI veteran reliever on the team, so it is Gregg. Plus, he has closing experience, which automatically makes him the best!

Starter Turned Reliever – Ted Lilly has to end up on the DL because he looks fucking terrible. Don’t whine to me about language. It is what it is.

What happened to Chris Capuano? I think he gets traded and soon. I picked him to get dealt over Aaron Harang because he’s a better pitcher and more valuable to teams. That said, there’s an extremely compelling case for Capuano to be in the pen over Harang. It consists of Capuano saying that he can come out of the pen, while Mattingly said he sees Harang as a starter only. I get that, but unless the Dodgers want to get nothing in return, I can’t see why a team would settle for Harang when they could have Capuano, especially given their handedness.

Either way, I’m confident something of significance happens with a trade, because if not, I’m unsure how the pen would shake out unless they carry 13 pitchers. As mentioned earlier, an option would be putting Bills or Greinke on the DL, but that’s a stop-gap solution at best. I suppose Gregg could be let go, but we all know that would burn Ned’s soul, so I figure one of the two healthy excess starters won’t be a Dodger for long.

—–

Now we just wait for the announcement that Harang has been traded, Gregg has been cut, and Sellers will start at SS because … of course it would happen.

The “Yasiel Puig Should Start & Bat Cleanup Movement” took a major but obvious and expected blow Tuesday, as the young Cuban outfielder was optioned to AA Chattanooga.

“I told him he had a great camp. It’s an organizational decision of what we think is best for him, now and in the long term,” said manager Don Mattingly. “We think this guy has a chance to be a really good player. He’s done nothing wrong in our camp, but he can just keep improving.”

Puig is raw and was never going to start the year in The Show unless other viable outfield candidates got hurt and ownership couldn’t throw money around to acquire someone else.

Besides, there’s no reason the Dodgers should rush a guy who’s got limited pro experience with none of that above high-A ball.

“He didn’t seem that happy about it. You don’t really want guys to be happy that they’re being sent out,” Mattingly said. “When we came into camp, this guy wasn’t even on the radar (for this season). He’s had a great camp…. Obviously he’s put himself on the map as far as probably knocking on the door instead of being a couple of years away.”

Puig wasn’t happy, as you would expect.

I’ve said it before, but I’d be surprised if he saw any action this year in the bigs, barring injury.

—–

Dee Gordon was optioned to AAA on Tuesday.

He was an option at short with Hanley Ramirez out a couple of months, but the move mainly serves to strengthen Juan Uribe‘s hold on a 25-man roster spot.

—–

The Dodgers have struck on the international market again, signing 17-year-old righty Bernardo Reyes of Sonora, Mexico.

Additionally, Dylan Hernandez reports the club has signed Jesus Canizales, a 16-year-old righty out of Venezuela.

—–

Mark Lowe, one of the many non-roster invitees in spring camp, has been released.

“He didn’t do anything wrong in camp. We thought he threw the ball good,” said manager Don Mattingly. “There just wasn’t a spot. This gives him a chance to catch on with another club.”

He was a long-shot to make the crowded pen from the jump.

On the minor-league side of things, the Dodgers released Riley Welch, Kazuki Nishijima, Jordan Roberts, Gregory Pena, and Kyle Russell.

Russell is the most interesting name of the bunch, as he’s always had great power, but struck out a ludicrous amount of the time.

Kyle Russell established University of Texas records for both single-season (28) and career (57) home runs, and the ’07 third-rounder ought to have no trouble latching on with another club if he’s healthy. Despite striking out nearly a third of the time at the Double-A level, Russell hit 40 homers in 270 games, posting an isolated slugging percentage of .229.

—–

Matt Eddy of Baseball America provided a glimpse at Dashenko Ricardo, whom the Dodgers recently signed.

Dashenko Ricardo caught eight games for the Netherlands in the World Baseball Classic, going 5-for-22 (.227) at the plate and helping the pitching staff navigate its way to the semifinal round. He threw out 37 percent of basestealers last season in the short-season Northwest League with an arm so strong that the Giants attempted to convert him to pitcher in ’11 after taking him in the minor league Rule 5 draft.

—–

Buster Olney and Ken Rosenthal report that the World Baseball Classic will pay just shy of $4 million of Hanley Ramirez‘s 2013 salary while he recovers from the thumb injury he suffered during WBC play.

The Dodgers will be without Hanley Ramirez for roughly eight weeks as he recovers from surgery to repair a torn ligament in his right thumb. But thanks to a new provision this year, the World Baseball Classic – not the Dodgers – could be on the hook for the nearly $4 million Ramirez is set to earn while on the shelf, per reports by Buster Olney of ESPN and Ken Rosenthal of Fox Sports.

Ramirez is due $15.5 million in 2013, and missing exactly eight weeks after surgery gives him a return date of May 16. Since the 183-day championship season begins on March 31, Ramirez would be on the disabled list in this scenario for 46 days. That means the WBC would be responsible for approximately $3,896,175 of Ramirez’s salary.

The WBC is on the hook because Ramirez will miss more than 30 days.

Gotta love insurance.

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Greg Zakwin is the founder of the site Plaschke Thy Sweater Is Argyle. Follow him on Twitter @ArgyledPlaschke.

Chad Billingsley reported no pain in his injured finger following a minor-league start on Saturday.

“In the past few days there haven’t been any issues with any tenderness. The only issue is with my curve ball because I spike it with my fingertip, which pushes the nail back into the finger,” Billingsley said. “I didn’t throw anything yesterday, and didn’t throw any (curves) today. I’m just let[ting] it have more time to rest or heal, without worrying about swelling or the nail falling off.”

The Dodgers continue to be cautious with Chad, but he’s been able to swing the bat since the injury occurred.

Billingsley later threw seven curves in a bullpen session Monday and was pleased with the results.

“I was happy with them,” Billingsley said of the quality of his curveballs.

Don Mattingly wants Chad to have all of his weapons when starting, although Billingsley seems willing to pitch even if he can’t physically throw his curve much or at all.

“You want a guy to have all his weapons,” said Mattingly. “It’s tough enough without having all of them.”

Billingsley said he would “cross that bridge when we come to it” when asked if he’d be comfortable pitching in a Major League game without a curveball, but also said there are games when he doesn’t feel he has other pitches and still competes.

Bills expects to make his first scheduled start of the season on April 2 should no issues crop up before then.

“The way it’s going now, as long as there are no setbacks, I plan to be ready,” said Billingsley, who is nursing a bruised right index finger.

—–

Carl Crawford is swinging the bat and throwing without pain.

“For Carl, it was a matter of timing. But the good thing for us was the three throws,” said manager Don Mattingly. “To see him not too much in a hurry on that last one, kind of one of those where there could be a play but he knew better.”

“I had caught for him out there before Stan (Conte, director of medical services) was bringing him back, and the ball had carry on it,” Mattingly said. “The ball was coming through me, and that was 10 days ago. I knew if that was the worst it was, we were going to be okay.”

Good signs, of course, though Crawford’s arm has always been suspect. Carl will continue to play the field during the remainder of Spring Training with a day-off thrown in.

Crawford is happy with his progress thus far and is encouraged that he’ll be in left field on Opening Day.

“Every time I get to do something, it’s a step in the right direction,” said Crawford, who will be ready for Opening Day barring a setback.

—–

Juan Uribe was scratched from Saturday’s lineup due to tightness in his right hamstring.

Doing everything he can to discourage the team from keeping him. I like.

—–

Zack Greinke wasn’t very good in his return, but the important part is that he came out of it healthy.

Greinke said his elbow felt fine after pitching in his first Major League exhibition game since March 1 and he should be ready to start the season on time.

“I should be. I think so,” he said. “I’ll definitely be there, if I can build up endurance. I need some improvement.”

So he thinks he’ll be ready, but I dunno, seems like a pointless risk to throw a guy out there who hasn’t properly built up strength.

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Greg Zakwin is the founder of the site Plaschke Thy Sweater Is Argyle. Follow him on Twitter @ArgyledPlaschke.

Hanley Ramirez needs surgery on his injured right thumb.

Sources: Hanley needs surgery on his right thumb. #Dodgers.

— Ken Rosenthal (@Ken_Rosenthal) March 21, 2013

Lame.

The timetable for Hanley is eight weeks following the surgery, meaning at-best we’re probably looking at mid-May for Hanley’s 2013 debut.

Well … say hello to a starting left side of the infield featuring Luis Cruz and some combination of Juan Uribe, Dee Gordon, Nick Punto, or Skip Schumaker.

Honestly, if those are the only options, I’m going with Uribe – and I can’t believe I’m typing that – as he’s at least excellent with the glove.

—–

Zack Greinke took to the mound Wednesday and reported no pain in his elbow following a four-inning, 43-pitch outing.

“Elbow wasn’t an issue today. I wasn’t worried about it. My arm felt really good and strong but the pitches aren’t 100% crisp yet.” -Greinke

— Los Angeles Dodgers (@Dodgers) March 20, 2013

And here are further details on the outing, including the possibility that he could avoid the DL.

Greinke threw 43 pitches in four scoreless innings, and Mattingly got good reports. He said Greinke was able to use all of his pitches and was sitting around 91-93 mph.

Greinke will next start Monday, and though there is a possibility that the Dodgers may have him throw in a minor league game in order to have the option to back date him on the disabled list, Mattingly hinted that might not be needed.

“We’ll keep playing all the scenarios as we go. The health theory is that we’d like to see him on the front fields. I think he wants to be on the front fields, too,” Mattingly said. “At this point if something flares up it’s probably more than a start anyway, so the DL is not going to matter.”

So he’s either going to be ready for the season from the start or head to the DL and miss multiple starts, depending on how the rest of Spring Training goes for him.

The Dodgers will need Greinke at 100% for as much of the season as possible, so caution would be the way to go here.

—–

Chad Billingsley threw a bullpen session Wednesday – minus his curve – and reported feeling no pain in his elbow, groin, and finger.

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Greg Zakwin is the founder of the site Plaschke Thy Sweater Is Argyle. Follow him on Twitter @ArgyledPlaschke.

Dodgers designated hitter third baseman first baseman shortstop Hanley Ramirez jammed his right thumb while diving for a groundball in the World Baseball Classic and he’ll get an MRI today at the Camelback Ranch.

His WBC manager and general manager gave differing takes on the severity of it.

“I don’t think it’s bad,” Dominican coach Alfredo Griffin said.

Ramirez, playing third base for the Dominican, jammed the thumb while diving for a ground ball in the third inning. He remained in the game, even delivering a single in the fourth inning, but left after five innings.

Ramirez declined comment through a team spokesman. Dominican Manager Tony Pena said he removed Ramirez for precautionary reasons, even though Ramirez told Pena he could have gone on.

So Tony Pena didn’t think it was bad, but it’s odd to me that Hanley declined comment on it if he wasn’t worried, and maybe it’s because he is a bit, as Moises Alou sounded.

“Hanley, he jammed his thumb when he dove for that ball,” Alou said after the Dominican Republic ran off eight consecutive wins to go undefeated and win the Classic for the first time. “It was pretty swollen. He’s going to have an MRI on it [Wednesday] in Arizona.”

I guess there are differing versions of ‘serious’ at play here.

Just recently, Stan Conte spoke and although he hasn’t had an MRI yet, they’ve already ruled Hanley out for a couple weeks.

Director of medical services Stan Conte spoke with the doctor at AT&T Park, and team trainer Sue Falsone was in contact with Ramirez on Tuesday night. Both relayed their information to manager Don Mattingly.

“They painted both pictures. The optimistic side is that he had another at-bat and it’s just a sprain and it could be a couple of weeks,” Mattingly said. “The pessimistic side is that it could be something major and he’s out 8-10 weeks.”

So he’s going to miss time, regardless, and they’re obviously worried. If he misses two months of the regular season … welcome Juan Uribe.

—–

Zack Greinke threw a bullpen session on Sunday and reported no pain in his right elbow, which had been bothering him recently and been diagnosed as inflamed.

“I guess I could have something, but I’m assuming it’s going to fine to be on track to do whatever, but I don’t know for sure,” Greinke said.

“I probably threw a little more (than expected). I felt good. I was working on stuff, and trying to make sure I’m ready for a game,” Greinke said. “I’m just trying to get ready. I don’t think about it as a rehab.”

“I’m just doing what’s laid out, to give us the best chance. On our team we have other starting pitchers, and we have to be ready. They’re going to weigh all that in,” Greinke said. “I just want to do what’s best for the team. It’s not important what day [I make my first start of the season].”

It’s encouraging to see Greinke make it through a session without pain, and he’ll start a minor-league affair today with a strict pitch count in place. A.J. Ellis will catch Greinke instead of suiting up with the rest of the squad.

Manager Don Mattingly said that Greinke will pitch in a Minor League game in the afternoon, with A.J. Ellis staying back to catch instead of playing in the Dodgers’ Cactus League game against Kansas City.

The team should not feel rushed to get him back by Opening Day if he needs an extra week or two to get healthy for a long, long, long season.

—–

Chad Billingsley‘s elbow has held up all Spring Training, but unfortunately he hasn’t escaped the injury bug as a sore groin is now accompanied by a bruised index finger on his pitching hand.

The finger forced Bills out of his scheduled outing.

“I’m just taking it day by day, seeing how I feel,” Billingsley said. “I’m still playing catch, but the command is just not there because it’s bruised and swollen.”

“(We’re not) trying to force him into this one. We’re concerned about the finger from the standpoint of changing a grip, then not having a grip pressure then changing an arm angle. With everything that has gone on, we really don’t want that,” Mattingly said. “The one thing with Bills, we want to make sure he’s able to throw.”

Glad to see Don Mattingly and his staff aren’t putting pressure on Chad to tough it out and are cognizant of the fact that doing so could lead to a change in mechanics.

But how did Billingsley injure himself, you might ask?

Bunting.

Yes, Matt, bunting.

Billingsley was scratched from Wednesday’s scheduled outing due to the finger. He’s scheduled for a bullpen session instead, and game action on Saturday.

—–

Carl Crawford, who has been dealing with elbow issues during Spring Training, saw improvement Monday in his ability to swing the bat and throw the ball.

“It’s good to see him get a couple of hits, which makes him feel better and more part of it. But even better today for me was him throwing, and Stan (Conte, team director of medical services) working with him on the cuts,” Mattingly said. “He had a lot on the ball. That was really positive today.”

“I’m throwing a little bit harder at (75-80) feet,” Crawford said. “At some point the goal is to be able to hit the cut off man, I’m not sure how many feet that is but that’s the goal.”

Once Crawford can hit the cutoff man, he’ll be cleared by the staff to play left field. Until such an event actually occurs, Carl will continue to DH.

It’s great that there’s no serious issue at play here, but the quotes on his throwing aren’t exactly glowing.

Though Crawford has also made progress throwing, it seems that won’t return until the regular season. But as long as Crawford is ready with the bat, that will determine when he’s ready.

“I don’t think he’s going to be 100% (throwing). When I asked Stan (Conte, director of medical services) when is he ready to really throw and he said, ‘May.’ So it’s going to be a work in progress,” Mattingly said. “But we’re building to a point where we’re comfortable with him being out there. We’re feeling good about everything about Carl right now.”

I couldn’t imagine a worse-throwing outfielder than Juan Pierre, but it looks like we might see it.

—–

Josh Beckett has the flu, which I can only imagine he caught from Ted Lilly.

Regardless, Beckett did start a simulated game against three minor-leaguers and Jerry Hairston Jr..

“Everything went good,” manager Don Mattingly reported. “He got better as the game went on. He was happy about being able to get it in. He was worried that if he did it in a [Cactus League] game and he had a long inning, he wouldn’t get his pitch count up and the up-and-downs. He seemed to be happy with it.”

Beckett threw 76 pitches and went through the up-and-down of six innings, pitching and resting in between.

Beckett’s had an excellent spring, so hopefully he won’t miss too much time – he’s been under the weather two days thus far – as he looks to carry his exhibition success into the meaningful regular season.

—–

Chris Withrow, who had been out with back spasms all Spring Training, returned briefly only to be injured by a liner off the shin.

Withrow escaped with a bruise from the Paul Goldschmidt shot, and he said he expects to be back in action in a couple of days.

“It’s been a pretty adventurous spring,” said Withrow. “I came in ready to go. For my back to go out the second day was kind of frustrating. Then the second batter, after seven months off, that’s not ideal either. Things happen for a reason.”

The guy just can’t seem to stay healthy, even when it comes to living life off the field, as a recent close-call indicates.

Things were adventurous for Withrow even before Spring Training started. He and his wife survived an offseason rollover auto accident with only minor injuries.

Hopefully he can find some good health in his future, as you can never have enough live arms with strikeout stuff.

—–

Dee Gordon is day-to-day after slightly spraining his ankle in a collision at home, according to Don Mattingly.

The shortstop walked off the field and back to the clubhouse on his own, and the injury isn’t believed to be serious.

Chad provided us with visual proof of Gordon attempting to run over (?) Miguel Montero on an overall laughable play.

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Greg Zakwin is the founder of the site Plaschke Thy Sweater Is Argyle. Follow him on Twitter @ArgyledPlaschke.

Surely you’ve heard by now that Mexico and Canada got into a brawl yesterday during the World Baseball Classic, and in the video above, you can see all the incidents that led up to the fight.

Basically, it was a bunch of physical but legal plays … yet it was a bunt single that set everything off.

Because of the way the rules are setup, Canada just beating Mexico wasn’t enough. The tiebreaking format provides incentive for teams to run up the score and claw for every run. Just ask Korea, who was 2-1 in the tournament but is watching at home now anyway.

As such, with their fate still very much up in the air, Canada bunted for a hit in the ninth inning while up six, which is when Luis Cruz did this:

So yeah, the guy bunted, Cruz obviously had no idea what was going on in terms of the context of the play, felt offended, and told his pitcher to drill the next guy, which the pitcher did … on his third attempt, even after being warned.

Getting past the ridiculous nature of the fact that it’s acceptable to hit a batter with a fastball because a professional getting paid to play baseball got his widdle feelings hurt by a bunt*, the more important part of it is whether or not suspensions would be in order, especially after the incident escalated into a bench-clearing brawl.

*I’m not the only one who finds it hilarious that behind all of this macho bravado front is the simple fact that these fights get started because grown men catch feelings over legal plays that hurt their egos, right?

So Cruz took offense, told the pitcher to hit the next batter, and then threw the first punch in the fight. Awesome. Suspension for sure, I figured.

Nah, somehow he wasn’t even ejected, and NOBODY involved was suspended. Not from the MLB, not even from the WBC.

The seven ejected — Team Mexico’s Arnold Leon, Oliver Perez, Eduardo Arredondo, Andrew Albers and Alfredo Aceves and Canada’s Pete Orr, Rene Tosoni and Jay Johnson — will not face discipline beyond the ejections, according to a statement released by the World Baseball Classic, Inc., late Saturday night.

“Because at least one club — and potentially both — will not advance to the second round, WBCI has determined that disciplinary measures would not have a meaningful corrective impact. Thus, discipline will not be imposed beyond today’s seven game ejections. It is our firm expectation that the members of Team Mexico, Team Canada and all the tournament’s participating teams will learn from this incident and set a better example — one that befits the sport they share — in the future.”

A bizarre decision since there’s evidence that it was on purpose, it happened a pitch after a warning was issued, and there was a huge brawl with punches being thrown and people being tackled.

Oh well, the main thing is that Cruz won’t be suspended, thus avoiding any temptation the team may have in regards to keeping Juan Uribe around, which is what really worried me about all this.

—–

As for Adrian Gonzalez, Larry Walker had that angle covered for us.

Larry Walker said he pulled Adrian Gonzalez out of the way of the brawl. “You’re too important to the game,” he told him.

— Jeff Passan (@JeffPassan) March 10, 2013

Thanks, Larry.

—–

As a bonus, here’s Javy Guerra being an idiot on Twitter.

You know how fights in baseball get avoided ??? U play the game right! Who bunts there? Whats the score? That’s how people get hurt!

— JavyGuerra54 (@JavyGuerra54) March 9, 2013

Pretty sure people get hurt when you throw at batters and then punch people in the face, but I guess that’s just me.

The Dodgers made their first four cuts of Spring Training, with Dallas McPherson, Nick Evans, Ozzie Martinez, and Kelvin De La Cruz getting their assignments to minor-league camp.

Later, Gregory Infante was reassigned to minor-league camp, and the club released lefty Wander Beras.

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44-year-old lefty Tsuyoshi Shimoyanagi worked out at the open tryouts the Dodgers held at Camelback Ranch. He failed that tryout and wasn’t offered a contract.

—–

Javy Guerra decided to play for Mexico in the World Baseball Classic.

Dodgers reliever Javy Guerra said he will be a late addition to Team Mexico’s entry in the World Baseball Classic after Cleveland closer Chris Perez left the roster for Team USA due to injury.

However, he later had to drop out because of liability concerns involving his shoulder.

Guerra, who was added to the Mexican team last week because other pitchers dropped out, was taken off the roster Wednesday because of liability issues resulting from his offseason shoulder surgery, Guerra said.

It’s for the better anyway.

—–

Don Mattingly is trying Juan Uribe out at first base in Spring Training as the Dodgers appear desperate to find some way to keep him on the 25-man roster.

“I expect it to really be pretty good, other than not necessarily having played there being a little uncomfortable for him,” Mattingly said. “His hands work. He’s always had a good feel for the game, and timing. I really expect him to be pretty good and be able to do this if he’ll put a little time on it, and pay attention to what he’s doing.”

So Mattingly doesn’t see Uribe struggling during the transition to a position he’s never played before, which is funny, considering this GIF.

“Unless we have a better option, he is under contract so it’s not one of those situations where I can just say this doesn’t work,” Mattingly said. “My job is to get everyone prepared the best we can with the guys that we have. I’m going to try to take the roster as we see it or the possibilities of it, and try to get the absolute most out of that.”

So Mattingly doesn’t seem interested in suggesting the release of Uribe.

Swell.

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Greg Zakwin is the founder of the site Plaschke Thy Sweater Is Argyle. Follow him on Twitter @ArgyledPlaschke.

Baseball fans love to talk about clutch plays and clutch players, and Dodgers fans are no exception, but like with a pitcher’s best and worst pitches, there tends to be a lack of evidence presented. As such, I decided to find some basis for clutch plays and clutch players, courtesy of the WPA and Clutch statistics.

WPA

Most sabermetric statistics are context neutral — they do not consider the situation of a particular event or how some plays are more crucial to a win than others. While wOBA rates all home runs as equal, we know intuitively that a home run in the third inning of a blowout is less important to that win than a home run in the bottom of the ninth inning of a close game. Win Probability Added (WPA) captures this difference by measuring how individual players affect their team’s win expectancy on a per-play basis.

Clutch

In the words of David Appelman, this calculation measures, “…how much better or worse a player does in high leverage situations than he would have done in a context neutral environment.” It also compares a player against himself, so a player who hits .300 in high leverage situations when he’s an overall .300 hitter is not considered clutch.

So that’s the foundation for this post, and since that’s now been established, let’s get on with it, shall we?

As always, visuals have been provided because, let’s be honest, everything is better with visuals.

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I feel like it’s necessary to point out that none of this is predictive of the future or telling of the past. It’s a post about stuff that happened in 2012. That’s all.

In other words, please don’t link back to this while saying, “LOOK! THIS DUDE IS SO CLUTCH, BRO!” No.

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Top Five Clutchiest McClutchington Hits Of 2012

1. Adrian Gonzalez – +69.9%

Whenever you increase your team’s chances of winning by 69.9% with one swing of the bat, something must have gone right.

Well, it did.

It was the bottom of the ninth with one out and runners on first and second. The Dodgers trailed the Diamondbacks by a score of 4-3.

Down to his last strike, A-Gon comes up gigantic with a walk-off double down the right field line off J.J. Putz.

2. Ivan De Jesus – 67.3%

THANK YOU J.J. PUTZ XOXOXO HUGS AND KISSES

Trailing 7-6 with runners on first and second and down to their last out, feeble hitting Ivan De Jesus came up and whacked a double over Chris Young‘s head in center to take the lead.

Much love to J.J. Putz.

3. Scott Van Slyke – 61.1%

Early in 2012, the season was full of “yeah, this team is winning the World Series if this kinda shit happens” moments, and this was certainly one of them.

Scott Van Slyke hit a three-run bomb with runners on first and second to give the Dodgers a 6-5 lead after they trailed 5-3 with two outs in the bottom of the seventh inning.

Even though it was only the seventh, it felt like a gigantic moment, right? WPA agrees.

4. Elian Herrera – 51.6%

So it’s the top of the eighth with two outs, the Dodgers trail 1-0 and Cliff Lee is just absolutely taking a dump down their throats, and, I mean, there’s runners on first and second but Elian Herrera or whoever is up, so it’s inning ove … HOLY SHIT! YES!!!

Shoutout to Juan Pierre.

5. Luis Cruz – 50.7%

Bottom of the sixth, two outs, runners on first and second (this is a theme), Dodgers trail the Cardinals 4-3, but 2012 phenom Luis Cruz is up and he absolutely bombs one into the bullpen to put the Dodgers up by two.

Bonus points for pimping it.

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Overall, the fact that there are five different players contributing here, and that four of the five are still basically unknowns to casual fans, speaks to how remarkable it was that the 2012 Dodgers even stayed in the playoff hunt throughout all the injuries and what not.

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Top Five Clutchiest Dodgers Of 2012 – Field Player Division

1. Dee Gordon – 1.05
2. Elian Herrera – 0.93
3. Luis Cruz – 0.84
4. Juan Uribe – 0.77
5. Adrian Gonzalez – 0.72

The 2013 projection for the Dodgers from Dan Szymborski‘s ZiPS system was released last week, and given that it’s probably my favorite forecasting tool, it’s worth a look to see how the team fared.

Forecasting is not a complete science, obviously, and I’ll address some of the potential pitfalls as we go along, but it’s better to use objective tools like these than the hopes/dreams of fans or the bitterness/wishes of haters.

To start us off, how does the team fare, generally speaking? A solid playoff contender, for sure, but a super team? Doesn’t seem likely.

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The Field Players

Despite all the hype over the recent acquisitions, the key cogs in this machine are still Clayton Kershaw and Matt Kemp. It’s a promising sign then, that Kemp projects at a 144 OPS+ and the system has confidence in him continuing to put up offensive numbers in the ~.900 OPS range. His defense in center still lags below average, but his bat more than makes up for it. His playing time projection has dropped due to his injury woes last season, and quite frankly, it’s hard to fault it for that. Regardless, he still figures to be the most valuable field player on the team.

Adrian Gonzalez is slated to be another bright spot, as ZiPS pegs him to bounceback a bit, though not as much as some want, clocking in at an ~.830 OPS/128 OPS+. That would still be his lowest OPS+ since 2008 (besides 2012, of course), but it’s a marked improvement considering his age and negatively trending skills. A-Gon compensates for that lagging bat a bit by putting up plus defense almost worth a win by itself. Hanley Ramirez factors in as yet another bounceback candidate, projecting at a 115 OPS+, which is an upgrade over last year’s 106 and is closer to his pre-2011 production. Defensively, even his horribad -8 run defensive rating is optimistic to me, as he was truly terrible with the glove last year. Given that I already wanted to barf seeing him trying to turn a double play in 2012, I wouldn’t be surprised at all to see him put up horrid defensive numbers after basically not playing the position all of spring.

Unfortunately, that’s where a lot of the offensive optimism ends. Luis Cruz checks in at 84 OPS+ (106 last year), which will anger many fans, but is completely reasonable given the track record. He remains valuable through plus defense, though given the sample size, there’s reason to be skeptical there as well. A.J. Ellis at 96 OPS+ (118) is another depressing but completely logical projection, as evidenced by everybody’s surprise in 2012 at his potent bat. Andre Ethier at 112 OPS+ (123) is hard to figure for me, because he has been consistently putting up ~120 OPS+ seasons even if it has come down from the ~130 OPS+ range two years ago. I suppose the projection system thinks he’ll get old in a hurry … or maybe it just thinks he’ll face an inordinately high amount of lefties. Mark Ellis at 81 OPS+ (93) shouldn’t be much of a surprise considering he’s 36 and put up an 80 OPS+ at Coors Field in 2011.

The last guy of the starters is Carl Crawford, who is the enigma of the 2013 season. He checks in at 104, which is notable because it’s basically his career OPS+ and it’s about what he did in limited time in 2012 over in Boston. That’s of particular note for me, because what he did in Boston in 2012 can be attributed to a mechanical fix that I pointed out in an article for Baseball Prospectus. Understandably, his playing time checks in low, but if he can produce like he did in 2012 but over a whole season, the Dodgers will be much better for it.

Overall, after fixing the playing time of A.J., adjusting Ethier’s offense up a bit, and adjusting Hanley’s defense down a bit, the starting lineup totaled about 22 WAR.

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The Bench & The Prospects

Assuming a bench of Tim Federowicz, Scott Van Slyke or Alex Castellanos, Jerry Hairston Jr., Nick Punto, and Skip Schumaker, we’re looking at around 3 WAR here after playing time is adjusted back to realistic bench levels. I’m guessing Alfredo Amezaga or Tony Gwynn Jr. work their way in somehow, but a five-man bench seems likely initially if the Dodgers can’t deal multiple pitchers before the season starts. Neither player would affect the WAR projection much though.

Honestly? I have to hope the Dodgers do something to improve the bench, because the current configuration looks rather mediocre, and the other options are keeping Juan Uribe and/or Elian Herrera. Yuck.

The good news is that Joc Pederson, T-Fed, SVS, and Castle are projected to be solid at the MLB level, though it sees Dee Gordon basically languishing behind.

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The Rotation

Clayton Kershaw is simply a beast, and he figures to check in with a 75 FIP-. This might seem high considering his 2011 and 2012 ERA- figures of 63 and 67, respectively, but when you consider that Felix Hernandez clocks in at 78 FIP- for 2013, you get the picture.

What might surprise is how close new acquisition Zack Greinke comes in behind him, as he figures to put up an FIP- of 81. Granted, he has always projected favorably, as his career FIP- is 80, while his career ERA- is 88, but even adjusting slightly for that, there’s a definite case there for the best 1-2 punch in the majors.

Unfortunately, this is where it gets murky, as Chad Billingsley has the stuff to be the #3, but if I were a betting man, I would bet his elbow implodes before July. He projects at 92 FIP-, which would put him around last year’s performance, which was his arguably his best season since 2008. However, given the nature of his injury and its history in the league, you can basically never rely on him to stay healthy again until he has Tommy John surgery.

Next in the pecking order are Josh Beckett, who comes in below-average at 103, and foreign import Hyun Jin Ryu, who comes in well below-average at 116. As mentioned before, the scouting reports for Beckett match this projection, as he’s no longer a front-line starter due to his decrease in velocity. However, if he can manage to learn to pitch a bit more, he still has the curve to perhaps slot in as a #3 more than a #4. Ryu is a case where I would take any projection with a mound of salt, because there’s hardly anything to base objective projections on. Personally, I don’t think Ryu has the stuff to be a #2, nor do I think he’ll be a #3 on a team with a $250 million payroll, but he should slot in comfortably in the back-end of the rotation for years. I would project something slightly below-average for 2013 and then hope for better.

The rotation is a strong point because it has both arguably the best 1-2 punch in the majors and depth, with Chris Capuano (108 FIP-) and Aaron Harang (114 FIP) presumably traded for upgrades (or maybe kept somehow?), and it checks in at about 17 WAR.

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The Bullpen & The Prospects

As of right now, I’m assuming a bullpen of Brandon League, Kenley Jansen, Ronald Belisario, Javy Guerra, Matt Guerrier, J.P. Howell, and Ted Lilly.

Jansen is the best of the bunch (63 FIP-) and League projects a distant second (92 FIP-), but Belisario has the most upside in these projections (101 FIP-). After that, Guerra, Guerrier, and Howell are all around replacement level. Lilly projects as a league-average pitcher, assuming he’s healthy, which would be a boon to a team that has a ticking time bomb in the rotation.

As far as prospects go, ZiPS thinks Chris Reed could be a replacement-level fill-in right now, but Zach Lee, Matt Magill, and Garrett Gould need more seasoning. And for all of you who have Stephen Fife wet dreams (yes, you’re out there), he projects at a 4.91 FIP, so keep it in your pants.

Speaking of replacement level, that especially applies to the Dodgers bullpen because of Shawn Tolleson, Scott Elbert, Steven Ames, and Paco Rodriguez, so the 4 WAR projection for this pen figures to be solid.

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Team Projection

A replacement-level team figures to win 43 games, and the team with the lowest amount of wins to get into the playoffs last year was the Cardinals at 88 wins, so 42 WAR puts you in the contender range and 45 WAR makes you viable, while 50 WAR will generally make a team a safe bet to be in the postseason. The Dodgers total 46 WAR, which puts them well within the playoff hunt: good but not great.

The Dodgers basically project neck-and-neck with the rival Giants, while the D-Backs lag behind a bit by maybe a half dozen wins or so, but they’re well within striking distance as well.

So make no mistake, the Dodgers recent spending habits did not make them an elite team, as the money simply duct-taped over both a flawed team and farm system depleted by Frank McCourt‘s ownership and Ned Colletti‘s questionable decisions. But that’s not to denigrate the job the new owners have done, as they turned the franchise into a legitimate playoff contender seemingly overnight, which is still saying a lot about what money can do.

Granted, “we gave you a team that has the chance to make the playoffs” is not what fans want to hear, but it’s an acceptable scenario as they lay the foundation to rebuild the franchise the correct way in their own minds. The 2013 projections might not reflect world-beaters like most seem to expect, but it’s a projection based on historical trends rather than hopes and dreams.

The 2013 Dodgers are indeed a team with a lot of upside, and if everything breaks correctly, they could very well end up being one of the best teams in the league, but they also carry a ton of inherent age and injury risk, which is why the projections come in understandably conservative. Either way, if nothing else, this team figures to be never boring.

Yes, this is the final installment of the 2012 Season Review for the Dodgers, and if you want to catch up on the others, then you can check out this tag here.

Otherwise, in the tables listed below, I have calculated the WAR (along with its components), value, and surplus value of every player on the Dodgers payroll in 2012.

It’s not meant to be taken literally (“A.J. Ellis is a better player than Matt Kemp!“), but I always learn stuff about the team that I hadn’t previously realized when I do it.

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The three best players on the Dodgers, according to WAR, were A.J. Ellis, Matt Kemp, and Andre Ethier, in order. The most valuable players, according to surplus value, were A.J. Ellis, Luis Cruz, and Mark Ellis.

Best hitters? Kemp, Ethier, and A.J. Ellis. Best baserunners? Dee Gordon, Shane Victorino, and Hanley Ramirez. Best fielders? Mark Ellis, Jerry Hairston Jr., and Cruz.

The three worst players on the Dodgers, according to WAR, were Gordon, Juan Rivera, and Alex Castellanos. The least valuable players, according to surplus value (excluding dead money), were Juan Uribe, James Loney, and Rivera.

Worst hitters? Gordon, Tony Gwynn Jr., and Uribe. Worst baserunners? A.J. Ellis, Adrian Gonzalez, and Matt Treanor. Worst fielders? Gordon, Kemp, Ramirez.

In related news, did you realize the Dodgers are STILL paying Juan Pierre? Good grief.

The three best pitchers on the Dodgers, according to WAR, were Clayton Kershaw, Chad Billingsley, and Chris Capuano, in order. The most valuable pitchers, according to surplus value, were Kershaw, Kenley Jansen, and Capuano.

The three worst pitchers on the Dodgers, according to WAR, were John Ely, Matt Guerrier, and Mike MacDougal. The least valuable players, according to surplus value (excluding dead money), were Ted Lilly, Guerrier, and Ely.

In related news, you can see why the Dodgers want to upgrade their rotation, as the team defense was decidedly average, but the staff RA WAR outperformed their FIP WAR by six wins.

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If there are any questions, let me know below.

The Dodgers made an offer to Hyun Jin Ryu, but it was rejected by Scott Boras, according to Ned Colletti.

The Dodgers made a long-term offer to Korean pitcher Ryu Hyun-jin on Tuesday, but it was rejected by agent Scott Boras.

“Predictably, it fell a tad short,” said general manager Ned Colletti.

The Dodgers have until Sunday to sign Ryu or they lose exclusive negotiating rights and their $25.7 million posting fee is refunded.

“We’re debating our next step,” said Colletti. “I don’t believe we’re close right now.”

As I said yesterday, I still think this is all posturing by both sides to get the best deal possible.

For his part, Boras later clarified the situation to Dylan Hernandez.

[Updated at 5:35 p.m.: Ryu's agent, Scott Boras, said he presented the Dodgers with a counteroffer. "We exchanged offers, and negotiations continue," Boras said.]

Boras, said his client should be compensated like a major league No. 3 starter. So, presumably, he’s looking for something in the $50-million range. [Updated at 9:45 p.m.: This estimate was high, according to a person familiar with the discussions.]

The reasons for the Dodgers wanting to wait should be obvious, because if they sign Zack Greinke and trade for James Shields or something of the sort, then their leverage in negotiations with Ryu becomes extremely one-sided.

For now? Just have to wait it out.

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Speaking of Greinke, the Dodgers and Rangers are apparently in a bidding war of sorts, according to Jon Heyman.

The Dodgers have been viewed as a fairly clear favorite for Greinke, but Texas is showing signs of determination, according to major-league sources.

The Dodgers are seen as having an almost unlimited payroll, but people familiar with the happenings now suggest the derby could go either way. Not many teams could hope to go dollar-for-dollar against the Dodgers, but the Rangers are trying to do just that.

The bidding is said by major-league officials to be “quite high” now, with two people pegging the dollar amount at about $160 million. And that’s with the deal not done yet. There seems an extreme likelhood now that Greinke will not only set a record for righthanded pitcher but for any pitcher, which is currently held by CC Sabathia, who signed for $161 million and seven years with the Yankees.

Some have suggested they could even see the Greinke deal reaching toward the $175-million mark.

This situation, however, could be severely impacted by the Rangers negotiations with Josh Hamilton, according to Danny Knobler, as they probably won’t sign both.

But one scenario they don’t see happening, according to sources, is a double free-agent signing of both Greinke and Hamilton.

And they certainly seem on pace to sign one or the other, according to Ken Rosenthal.

For his part, Jon Paul Morosi is of the belief that the Dodgers are the clear favorite, while Bill Shaikin adds that this drama may not be over by the time the Winter Meetings conclude.

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Connected to Greinke in a way, the Dodgers are apparently shopping Chris Capuano and Aaron Harang to whoever.

One exec says “Dodgers shopping Capuano and Harang around lobby. Greinke and Rhu, or Greinke and Sanchez or Dempster?”

#Dodgers becoming aggressive in shopping Harang and Capuano, source says. Could be a sign of confidence in landing Zack Greinke. @MLBONFOX

I doubt either of them would be hard to deal at any point in the off-season. Both are on short-term deals, the Dodgers could eat money if necessary, and the return demands probably won’t be significant.

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COMEDY BREAK

The Dodgers are running around shopping Juan Uribe!

One of the agendas the Dodgers are pushing aggressively in the lobby is to find a trade partner to take utility infielder Juan Uribe. Needless to say, the Dodgers are garnering little interest unless they’re willing to pay his entire contract. Uribe, who has batted .199 the past two seasons combined, is entering the final year of a three-year, $21 million contract.

What a disaster.

Asked an MLB official if #Dodgers might be able to interest #Yankees in Juan Uribe with A-Rod injured. The guy chuckled.

— Bill Shaikin (@BillShaikin) December 4, 2012

It’s become a punchline, as it should, really.

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Dee Gordon appears to be a popular target for teams, including the Mariners.

The Dodgers are fielding tons of inquiries on shortstop Dee Gordon, tweets Scott Miller of CBS Sports, though they’re not looking to deal him. The Mariners are among the teams hitting the Dodgers hard on Gordon, tweets Miller.

I’ve given my thoughts on Dee previously, though I’m not sure what the Mariners have that the Dodgers want.

No, it’s not Felix Hernandez. Stop.

I’m thinking more along the lines of Kyle Seager, Corey Seager‘s older brother. The Mariners have Alex Liddi and Vinnie Catricala.

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Perhaps the R.A. Dickey rumors have some legs after all?

Hearing Dodgers thinking big, have strong interest in Dickey even if they sign Grienke. But they don’t have good young OF to trade.

— John Harper (@NYDNHarper) December 4, 2012

Source says Mets could get speedy SS Dee Gordon and top pitching prospect Zach Lee from Dodgers for Dickey. But that doesn’t help OF.

— John Harper (@NYDNHarper) December 4, 2012

That would be … a lot for a rental.

Still not sure I buy the interest as legit either. Not yet, at least.

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In interest of filling out their bench, the Dodgers are apparently interested in trading for Skip Schumaker, according to Danny Knobler.

He plays second, left field, center field, and right field, so there’s versatility there, but he’s a terrible defender at second, a bad one in center, and just solid-average in the corners. Over the last three seasons, since he turned 30, he’s had an OPS+ of 88.

Not so thrilled, really.

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Oh, and Colletti shot down those rumors from yesterday about them seeking starters at SS/3B. But there’s no reason to think he’s being truthful either.

Luis Cruz

I can safely say that I’m not the only one who had no idea who Luis Cruz was at the outset of the 2012 season. By the end of it, the once unknown 28-year-old journeyman had become a cult hero in Los Angeles. Heading into 2013, it appears he’ll not only hold down a roster spot, but be the Dodgers starting third baseman.

Now whether that’s something a team with a $200 million payroll should be doing, however, is another matter entirely. Others seem to be having difficulty wrapping their head around it as well, probably because heading into 2012, Cruz’s major-league career consisted of 169 plate appearances spread over three seasons and 56 games. He was atrocious at the dish in that limited sample size, and had been a career minor-leaguer, save for those small cups of coffee.

Following injuries to Dee Gordon (thumb) and Juan Uribe (playing baseball like he plays life), Cruz was called up in early-July and spent time at third, short, and second. Most of that time — 51 games and 48 starts — was at the hot corner, where he shined with the glove, posting a 6.6 UZR and a +8 on the DRS scale. He was very good with the leather overall, saving ~5.5 runs in total in 2012. His play at third was especially impressive considering he had never before manned the position in the bigs.

That last sentence is an important one with Cruz, because fans are quick to make judgments when they first see a player perform in The Show, and Cruz has become a savor in the eyes of many fans. If injuries don’t derail plans and we assume that he continues to flash the leather at third in 2013, Cruz can be an adequate starter for the Dodgers based on his defensive showing in 2012 alone. However, if Cruz’s defense proves to be a mirage, then his offense probably won’t cut it because it’s a strong candidate to regress. Yes, that’s still better than Uribe, who we’ll get to momentarily, but simply being better than Emo Juan isn’t enough to be a productive major-leaguer.

The main problems are that Cruz doesn’t walk (3% in 2012), has limited power (.134 ISO), and is just an average baserunner. Combine those factors with an inflated BABIP (.320), and he’s looking at a less impressive 2013 triple-slash. Oh, and he swings at just about everything, including a ridiculous 41.1% of pitches outside of the strike zone, compared with a league average of just under 31%. That’s not a great indicator unless you’re Vladimir Guerrero talent-wise, and Cruz is obviously not (who is?).

Even for a guy who posted a ~2.3 WAR in 2012, given the rational concerns with him repeating that performance, a starting gig in 2013 is still a godsend. If the only options are starting Cruz or Uribe, then sure, Cruz is the easy choice, but his career minor-league line in 12 seasons and 1200+ plate appearances of .261/.296/.394/.690 speaks volumes to me, and it’s a far greater indicator of what to expect going forward than 296 plate appearances this past season.

Cruz deservedly has a spot on the team, but it probably should be as a bench player, not a starter. And given where he came from prior to the Dodgers, that’s not a diss, but rather a compliment that he’s earned his keep.

Juan Uribe

Juan Uribe managed to make it through an entire season — in which he hit an unseemly .191/.258/.284/.542 with a .245 wOBA — without being cut. He spent some time on the DL, but more of it riding the pine, going weeks down the stretch without seeing the field.

Spending any significant amount of time on him is a nauseating notion, so let’s just quickly wrap this up and note that Uribe is heading into the final year of the atrocious deal Ned Colletti handed out to him prior to the 2011 campaign. Yes, he still swings at everything, is averse to drawing a walk, and will probably still find work somewhere because he can handle himself in the field, saving ~3.7 runs in 2012.

Whatever.

Adam Kennedy

Adam Kennedy also found himself at third last season, starting 25 games and appearing in 39. He’s pretty much the opposite of Uribe, as he’s bad with the leather (about a run in debt to the Dodgers overall) but mediocre with the lumber (.262/.345/.357/.702 with a .310 wOBA overall). And by mediocre, I mean bad, but better than anyone actually expected him to be.

Jerry Hairston Jr.

One last player of note to find himself at third last season was Jerry Hairston Jr., who started 23 games and appeared in 32 at third.

He swung the bat well when playing there, to the tune of a .315/.344/.435/.779 line in just under 100 plate appearances. Perhaps most impressively though, he got off to a ridiculously hot start there defensively, which helped him rate well with the glove (2.6 UZR and a DRS of +2) even though he did struggle later in 2012.

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Greg Zakwin is the founder of the site Plaschke Thy Sweater Is Argyle. Follow him on Twitter @ArgyledPlaschke.

Clayton Kershaw pitched and labored through five innings with an injured left hip, but he managed to limit the Reds to a lone run. Adrian Gonzalez homered twice to emphatically break out of his slump, and he helped power the offense to a win. But perhaps the biggest surprise goes to Juan Uribe, who managed to … uh … get a hit.

Still, despite the team’s best efforts, their playoff chances actually dropped because both the Cardinals and the Brewers were victorious, thus keeping the Dodgers three games back of the final Wild Card spot with nine games to play. Their chances now sit in the 5-7 percent range, depending on what methodology you choose to employ.

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Given Kershaw’s performance, I suppose one could look at as if pitching him was the right decision since the team ended up winning, but ten baserunners, including five walks over five innings against the B-lineup of the Reds, didn’t exactly strike me as normal, nor did it really change the fact that the Dodgers playoff hopes are still slim. Honestly, it was just fortunate that the sequencing of his struggles weren’t different, and that the results somehow managed to remain positive.

Simply put, the risk wasn’t worth the reward no matter what happened, because as even Orel Hershiser noted on the ESPN broadcast (Via Eric Stephen), Kershaw indeed struggled with his mechanics:

“We’re watching Clayton Kershaw throw a lot of balls to the right-handed batters box, or away to Votto, or inside to righties. That right hip, as it gets a little fatigued, his upper body is going to take over and it’s going to over-rotate over that hip and he’s going to start pulling pitches like he is. It’s just that little less bracing that makes the upper body go too far and…instead of that arm speed being braced against that front leg and having some direction, there is less bracing on that front side. The arm and the upper body take over, and you happen to pull the ball to your glove side. So if he’s not putting as much weight on it or using as much strength in that front leg for direction, his mechanics will make him start pulling the ball to his glove side.”

As I’ve said on this issue before, I just didn’t see the upside in starting him. This wasn’t a playoff game, it wasn’t a tiebreaker game, and, heck, it wasn’t even a particularly important regular season game.

—–

In news that I enjoyed the most, A.J. Ellis snapped an 0-for-30 skid with a double in the ninth. The Dodgers dugout made light of his streak by asking for the ball.

Now that rosters have expanded, let the speculation on who gets the September call begin!

Pump the brakes a bit though, because unfortunately for the people who wish to see young players show their stuff: 1) the 40-man roster is full 2) guys on the 60-day DL are due to return 3) um … the team just traded away all of the top prospects that were close to contributing.

—–

One of the primary issues is that Rubby De La Rosa and Jerry Sands are still on the Dodgers 40-man roster, so it creates a bit of a mess in terms of roster spots. This is especially true because Ted Lilly (maybe) and Dee Gordon are set to return, which means guys will have to get designated just to fit them in. Perhaps Chad Billingsley, Kenley Jansen, or Scott Elbert could be placed on the 60-day DL, but that creates more holes, not less.

Either way, guys like Adam Kennedy, Juan Uribe, Matt Angle, Elian Herrera, and Stephen Fife might not want to get too comfortable on the 40-man, depending on what direction the team decides on. However, due to the roster crunch, those hoping for players not on the 40-man roster to get called — like John Ely, Tony Gwynn Jr., and Bobby Abreu — might be left disappointed.

—–

Among those who I feel could help the team immediately are Tim Federowicz, Javy Guerra, Josh Wall, and Alex Castellanos. I already went over the reasons Guerra could contribute, as I believed sending him down to begin with was foolish. Wall, despite just an average year at AAA, has the raw stuff catch fire and help stabilize a suddenly shaky bullpen. Federowicz is not as good a hitter as his .296/.371/.465/.836 line in AAA would indicate, but he’s a good defender and is an upgrade over Matt Treanor right now. Castellanos could provide right-handed thump off the bench, as his .338/.431/.610/1.041 line in AAA would somewhat indicate. I’d rather see him get a chance than continue to run Juan Rivera out there, that’s for sure.

Other possibilities on the 40-man are Scott Van Slyke and Fife. Van Slyke could do much the same as Castellanos, but I have less confidence in his bat. Still, he can hardly be a worse pinch hitting option than Uribe or Kennedy or Nick Punto. I’m not sure Fife would fit in the bullpen, but if he’s not going to get designated then he could be called up to use as a long man.

Ely, Gwynn, and Abreu could all help, but I have to think they’re long shots due to the roster crunch reasons I mentioned earlier. Personally, I would have no problem designating about a half dozen players, but the team has somehow managed to resist doing that all year, so I don’t see why they would start now. With that said, if a starter goes down with injury, Ely deserves a chance after putting up a 3.20 ERA in 168.2 innings with solid peripherals in that league. Gwynn has put up a .304/.400/.393/.793 line at AAA and I really feel like he has to be added to the 40-man and called up somehow, if for no other reason than to pinch run. If Abreu’s healthy, he could probably do what Shane Victorino is producing in left right now sans the defense, so he could be a useful bench guy.

—–

Assuming Billingsley, Jansen, and Elbert return from injury, and that Gordon will be back but not Lilly, I would call on Federowicz, Guerra, Wall, Castellanos, Van Slyke, Gwynn, and Abreu while designating Uribe, Angle, and Herrera.

The quote found in the title basically sums up Don Mattingly‘s logic when he was asked about Andre Ethier‘s struggles against lefties, as reported by Eric Stephen of True Blue LA.

Part of the struggles for Ethier have been against left-handed pitchers, against whom Ethier is hitting .218/.282/.315 this season. But don’t expect Mattingly to pinch hit for Ethier in late-game situations any time soon.

“He’s one of our guys. It’s like pinch hitting for Matt if he struggled against righties. It’s the way it is. If we fall with Matt, we fall,” Mattingly said. “We’ll fall with Andre, unless I have an option that says, ‘I’ve got to do this.’ But most of the time I don’t have that option.”

What about the right-handed Jerry Sands, who is hitting .362 with 13 home runs in 44 games since July 1 in Triple A? It doesn’t sound like he would be much of an option either.

“As we get into September we’ll have a few extra guys, we’ll be able to do some things. Every team is going to have guys who are options,” Mattingly said. “If they were tremendous options they wouldn’t be in Triple A.”

I’m not going to pretend I know more about Jerry Sands than Mattingly or the Dodgers organization. I don’t. They surely have inside information on all their players. However, one just has to call bullshit on this specific bit of logic, don’t we?

Ethier has a .218/.282/.315/.597 line against lefties in 2012 and is .238/.298/.351/.650 against them for his career. Juan Uribe, over the last TWO YEARS, has a .196/.260/.287/.546 line. He is currently 0-for-August.

So to say that Sands wouldn’t be a better option for the team at some point … it’s just ridiculous.

—–

1) Replacement options in AAA have already proven that they can hit better than the level of the players up for replacement.

2) If they can’t prove anything at AAA and thus can’t get a call to the MLB, then where are they supposed to prove themselves?

3) There are never better options stuck at AAA than in the MLB? A.J. Ellis says hi to Rod Barajas. Paul LoDuca sends his wishes to Charles Johnson. Ad nauseam.

4) Having greater knowledge doesn’t always mean it’s right, nor does it mean it’s free of bias.

5) It doesn’t have anything to do with contracts and egos? Just performance? That’s why Matt Kemp and Andre Ethier had playing time stolen by Juan Pierre, Luis Gonzalez, and Andruw Jones, right? I believe the organization.

—–

Just terrible, seriously. Please find a better excuse or something, because I hate to believe that’s the actual line of thinking.

Rah rah rah, let’s trade everything to win now but let typical backwards thinking get in the way of making moves that would actually help the team do so when it comes to roster construction.

Awesome.

The Dodgers announced moments ago that Jerry Sands would be getting the call from AAA and that Tony Gwynn Jr. has been designated for assignment.

OFFICIAL: @dodgers today designatedTony Gwynn Jr. for assignment and recalled outfielder/first baseman Jerry Sands from AAA Albuquerque.

— Los Angeles Dodgers (@Dodgers) August 6, 2012

Sands has done his part to deserve the shot, hitting .286/.368/.521/.889 at AAA, including a BABIP around league average. He’s hitting lefties and righties about equally well, so putting him down as a platoon guy seems a bit asinine, and unlike last year, when he posted a 1.153 OPS at Albuquerque and a .659 OPS away, this year he’s at .964 and .826, respectively.

It’s also worth noting that even if you don’t believe Sands will be a regular in the future, he has put up a .248/.329/.381/.710 line in his MLB career, which puts him 60 points higher than James Loney and Juan Rivera in 2012.

That fact happens to be exactly what I don’t understand about getting rid of Gwynn though.

Mike Petriello doesn’t mind ditching Gwynn because he doesn’t think Gwynn has any utility left for the team. While that’s true, I’m not quite sure what utility the others have either.

Designate plus-plus defender and fourth outfielder, keep two mediocre 1B who are only useful in a platoon and all around useless 3B.

— Chad Moriyama (@ChadMoriyama) August 6, 2012

I guess my argument is less that the team needs Gwynn and more that it needs Rivera, Loney, Juan Uribe, and Adam Kennedy less.

Gwynn’s .232/.276/.293/.570 line is terrible, without a doubt, but he’s still a plus-plus defender that’s better than anybody in the Dodgers outfield by a long shot. The type of player he is has value as a pinch runner, as a defensive replacement, and as an emergency starter — even if they can’t hit.

What utility do Loney, Rivera, Uribe, and Kennedy have? To me, they aren’t even useful off the bench as a pinch hitter (maybe Rivera).

Tony Gwynn Jr.: career .305/.372/.405 hitter in 147 PA as pinch-hitter. Between that and defense, should have been kept instead of Uribe

— Jay Jaffe (@jay_jaffe) August 6, 2012

Dodgers had (at least) four guys who are let’s say offensively challenged (Uribe, Loney, Rivera, Gwynn). They cut the best defender

— Eric Stephen (@truebluela) August 6, 2012

Regardless, it’s hard to get worked up about it, as we’re likely talking about 50-75 PA for Gwynn and whatever amount of defensive replacement appearances he would have got, but I just disagree that moving Gwynn instead of one of the other four was in the best interests of the Dodgers roster.

According to Ken Rosenthal and Jon Paul Morosi of Fox Sports, the Dodgers have traded Nate Eovaldi and Scott McGough to the Marlins for Hanley Ramirez and Randy Choate.

BLOCKBUSTER: Hanley Ramirez & Randy Choate to #Dodgers, Nathan Eovaldi & Scott McGough to #Marlins, sources tell @Ken_Rosenthal and me.

— Jon Morosi (@jonmorosi) July 25, 2012

I’ll have complete analysis (with all the nerdy stuff) in the morning, but for now, my gut reaction is that it makes sense for both teams.

Regardless of what position he ends up playing, Hanley figures to be a gigantic improvement over the unholy combination of Juan Uribe, Dee Gordon, Adam Kennedy, Elian Herrera, and Luis Cruz. The production the Dodgers are getting from both 3B and SS is just terrible, and it’s not like they were playing quality defense either, so Hanley’s questionable glove shouldn’t burn the team too often.

While I am admittedly excited by the gigantic upside of this deal if Hanley figures it out again, it’s not without risk. After all, there’s a reason the Marlins let him walk with 2 1/2 years of team control remaining.

First of all, Hanley is signed through 2014 and is still owed $31 million over the next two years, including whatever he’s still owed in 2012. Additionally, his batting line has been woeful (by his standards) since 2010, clocking in at .245/.328/.405/.732. Plus, as I mentioned, he’s not a good defender, regardless of where he plays, and there are very real concerns about his motivation and happiness. Normally I would dismiss this as media inflated crap due to him under-performing, but then I consider that his hand got infected because he forgot to take his antibiotics, and you start to wonder.

Choate, the other half of this deal on the Marlins side, also makes sense for the Dodgers. Lefties are batting .150/.200/.183/.383 (yes, really) off him in 2012, and while there’s nothing wrong with Scott Elbert, he’s actually effective against righties much more than lefties in 2012.

—–

For the Marlins, Eovaldi should be a solid rotation contributor, though I think his upside still lies as a #3 because his off-speed stuff lags behind his fastball. From the Dodgers perspective though, they have a ton of arms in the system, and with both Rubby De La Rosa and Ted Lilly due back soon, plus a potential trade for Ryan Dempster/Matt Garza, Nate was an understandably expendable piece. It wouldn’t shock me if the Dodgers lose this trade in terms of surplus value in the end, but I think the deal makes sense, regardless.

Who is McGough though, right? I wrote about him back in February and nothing much has changed yet. I still think he can be a MLB contributor in the bullpen, but he’s not going to be an elite guy and the Dodgers have a ton of arms, so his inclusion isn’t all that important to me.

—–

Overall, I feel the deal makes sense for both sides. The two teams want to go in different directions, and with the free agent market dwindling for the Dodgers, they could afford to absorb salary in exchange for upgrades/upside beyond 2012, and they did exactly that. Meanwhile, the Marlins cleared a contract and a headache off their slate and got solid cost-controlled pieces in return, at least one of which can contribute to the team immediately.

So with the Dodgers basically looking at everybody, and with the Carlos Lee trade falling through, the team has now revealed five teams that their scouts are watching intently as potential trading partners.

Dodgers scouts have an increased presence with Milwaukee, as well as continued coverage of the Chicago Cubs, Colorado, Philadelphia and Minnesota.

The players believed in their sights include Brewers sluggers Aramis Ramirez and Corey Hart; Cubs starting pitcher Ryan Dempster; Rockies outfielder Michael Cuddyer; and Phillies starting pitcher Cole Hamels. At the top of the club’s wish list are a productive corner infielder and a starting pitcher.

I thought the five players were intriguing options, so I decided to take a detailed look at all of them.

=====

Aramis Ramirez – 3B – Brewers

Dodgers third basemen on the year have combined to go .245/.319/.340/.659, and that’s being kind because utility man Jerry Hairston Jr. has a .326/.380/.500/.880 line in 50 plate appearances there. Hairston operates best as a super utility guy though, so Ramirez would essentially be a Juan Uribe (.200/.259/.280/.539)/Adam Kennedy (.228/.319/.289/.608)replacement.

Ramirez has hit .263/.341/.471/.812 so far in 2012 and he projects to improve on that a bit at .274/.341/.484/.824. Uribe and Kennedy are about average defensively, while Ramirez is well below average, bordering on poor. There’s a five to ten run gap on defense that Ramirez will have to make up, and that he does. For the rest of 2012, Ramirez projects to be about 20-25 runs better offensively than the combination of men he’s replacing. If you buy into his splits, which for his career have him ~60 OPS points higher in the second half, the disparity could be even more significant. Also, despite being 34, his peripherals show little sign of decline.

Of course, there’s the problem of the contract that the team would be taking on. Making $6 million in 2012, $10 million in 2013, and $16 million in 2014 with a 2015 mutual option/$4 million buyout, the Dodgers would hypothetically be on the hook for about $32 million for 2.5 years of service.

A bit painful but perhaps not overly terrible for a 3-4 WAR player, even one due to regress because of age. Ramirez would basically have to be worth around 7 or 8 WAR to make it work, and he figures to be in the neighborhood of that figure. Furthermore, he plays third, and unlike the corner outfield positions, third basemen are a much rarer asset. This is particularly true for the Dodgers, who have a complete dearth of internal options. Now factor in that the free agent market might come down to Maicier Izturis, and Ramirez isn’t such a terrible shot to take.

For the Brewers part, the Dodgers will probably have to wait until the last minute. Milwaukee sits a mere seven games back of first right now, which may seem like a lot, but with two wild card spots this year and the Cardinals late charge in 2011 fresh in everybody’s memory, they’ll probably be taking this decision down to the wire. One winning streak and they may not end up selling off at all.

—–

Corey Hart – RF – Brewers

Dodgers left fielders have hit .242/.300/.333/.632 on the year, which is amazingly bad. Hart would be a boon for the team, as he’s currently at .251/.313/.505/.818 and projects to hit .264/.327/.484/.811 the rest of the way. An average fielder, he would improve that area of the outfield as well, as they are basically stuck with Juan Rivera and Bobby Abreu as their primary options.

Hart is signed through 2013 and makes $9 million in 2012 and $10 million in 2013. His contract is more than reasonable for a 3-4 WAR player, and he’s a potential addition who could make upwards of a 25-35 run difference over the rest of the year (that’s being conservative, really).

Like Ramirez though, he may never become available, as the Brewers may never end up selling.

—–

Ryan Dempster – RHP – Cubs

I already addressed his potential addition here, but his acquisition makes even more sense now with Ted Lilly being transferred to the 60-day DL, health unknown, as Dempster would be a huge improvement over Nate Eovaldi.

The Cubs are 14 games back and are shopping everybody, so he’ll be on the market.

—–

Cole Hamels – LHP – Phillies

I like Hamels for the same reason I like Dempster, except he’s even better than Dempster and has a longer track record of excellence without the immediate injury history. He’s a consistent 3.5-4.5 WAR pitcher and a solid #1/#2 to slot behind Clayton Kershaw if the Dodgers can make the playoffs.

A 2.79 ERA/3.05 FIP/3.02 xFIP/3.03 SIERA in 2011 and a 3.08 ERA/3.28 FIP/3.24 xFIP/3.25 SIERA in 2012 basically says it all.

Hamels makes $15 million in 2012 and is slated to be a free agent, one that will probably be pursued by the Dodgers either way. The Phillies are 12 games back and should be sellers.

—–

Michael Cuddyer – RF – Rockies

Like Hart, he would be replacing a terrible concoction of outfielders that the Dodgers have trotted out in left field. Like Hart, he’s a solid hitter. Putting up a .284/.346/.459/.805 line in 2011, he has dropped a bit to .260/.313/.480/.793 in 2012, but projects to finish at a .281/.338/.485/.823 clip. Unlike Hart, he’s a rather poor defender, and I do have concerns that Coors Field is playing insane again, yet he’s still down a bit. That concern is especially true because he’s 33.

As far as his contract goes, he makes $10.5 million in 2012, 2013, and 2014, with performance bonuses that could up it by $1.5 million in 2014. A reasonable deal for a 2.5-3.5 WAR player, but I think Hart is both the better overall player and the one with less risk.

The Rockies are 14 games back at the moment and surely would be willing to sell, even if it’s within the division.

=====

Overall, all of the rumored players mentioned represent significant improvements to the team. Unlike Carlos Lee, they are likely to be difference makers for the Dodgers, thus making it understandable that they surrender assets for them. Whether the trades are workable or worth it obviously still depends on what the Dodgers give up and the finances involved, but if these are the types of players the team is pursuing, they definitely seem headed down the right road.

I had my fears over Ted Lilly‘s MRI, but it showed no structural damage to his shoulder.

The Dodgers received good news regarding one of their core starters Friday, as the results of Ted Lilly’s MRI came back revealing no structural damage to his left shoulder.

“Teddy’s MRI went good,” manager Don Mattingly said. “That was good for us. With the medication [they gave him], they expect him to have a few days off here with that, and basically start moving forward.”

While great, it does make me seriously wonder why they made an offer to Roy Oswalt.

—–

Juan Rivera might be back with the club by next Monday, but I’m honestly not all that thrilled about it.

Juan Rivera was back with the club in Colorado on Friday for reevaluation following four rehab starts as he works back from a left hamstring strain that put him on the DL on May 9. He will not be activated in Colorado, but may well return to the 25-man roster when the team goes to Philadelphia for a four-game set starting Monday.

“He’s doing really well, and he feels good,” manager Don Mattingly said. “I’m hearing sometime in Philly. We’re going to do more testing today with him and see where’s he’s at — he’s been playing the last couple days. Then we’ll make a decision about whether to play him one more game [in the Minors] or if we feel like he’s ready to go. We’ll be patient.”

I would much rather see a combination of Bobby Abreu/Tony Gywnn Jr./Alex Castellanos/Jerry Sands/Scott Van Slyke in left field.

Both statistically and logically, I doubt his return is an upgrade in any way at this time.

—–

Juan Uribe will begin a rehab stint next week, and as much as I harass him, he will be a welcome addition.

Juan Uribe is poised to take the final step in working his way back from a left wrist injury that sidelined him since May 14. Uribe has been working out with the Dodgers, and can be expected to begin a brief Minor League rehab assignment next week.

“Juan’s been improving,” manager Don Mattingly said Friday. “He’ll be taking BP, and he’s been progressing. The thing with Juan that’s been good is he’ll take BP, and then the next day he’s been fine. So we’ve had two days of that. He’s going to progress, and we’ll probably within the next day or so be talking about him playing somewhere.”

Mattingly is impressed with how quickly Uribe has gotten his feel for the game back, and wants to ensure he gets some game action in the Minors to get the timing down on his swing.

Like most, I prefer just letting Jerry Hairston Jr. play everyday, but having Juan Uribe around to start over Adam Kennedy is basically improving by default.

As I feared when Mark Ellis‘ injury was initially announced, the six week timetable was optimistic, as now he’s out at least two months.

The estimated recovery time of Dodgers second baseman Mark Ellis has been extended to two months after an MRI revealed a medial collateral ligament sprain of the left knee.

Ellis already has had emergency surgery to relieve swelling in the left leg, which was injured last Friday in a takeout slide by Cardinals infielder Tyler Greene. Dodgers trainer Sue Falsone said surgery is not currently considered for the ligament sprain.

Falson said Ellis also has an accompanying blister capsule sprain and a bone contusion on the outside of the knee.

“He’s not full weight bearing right now. He’s on crutches. So it just depends on how many days it takes for him to get to that full weight bearing,” she said. “There are a lot of factors here, and it’s not like this is a common, everyday baseball injury that we see all the time. These are best estimates we can give based on tissue healing times. But every person is different so we are going to see how it goes.”

Falsone stressed that because all of Ellis’ injuries are trauma related — and he has a long wound from the surgery — healing time is uncertain.

“Right now we are letting everything heal up and let him recover from the trauma and begin some basic weight bearing exercises and range of motion type of stuff and progress,” she said, adding that the healing of the wound and the knee sprain “both need healing time.”

So Ellis is out until at least August, but by reading the quotes, you find that the training staff doesn’t really have a reliable timetable for this, so it could easily be later than that.

Honestly? I’m looking at it like I just hope he’s 100% for 2013, and anything the Dodgers get out of him in 2012 is a bonus at this point.

—–

Justin Sellers was placed on the disabled list yesterday to make room for Jerry Hairston Jr.‘s return, but he should be back in 15 days.

Dodgers infielder Justin Sellers was placed on the 15-day disabled list Friday with a bulging disk he believes is the result of the highlight-reel catch he made diving into the stands at Dodger Stadium earlier this month.

Sellers has been playing in increasing pain and the injury was diagnosed through an MRI Thursday. Manager Don Mattingly said the club is optimistic that anti-inflammatory medication and strengthening exercises will have Sellers able to return in the minimum 15 days.

It depends on his recovery, but he hasn’t shown to be Rafael Furcal yet, so there’s no reason to expect the worse.

—–

With quick status updates, Matt Guerrier is out until at least the All-Star break and Juan Uribe is having his wrist examined for what seems like the millionth time.

Sue Falsone: Matt Guerrier not expected back until after All-Star break.

— Dylan Hernandez (@dylanohernandez) May 26, 2012

Juan Uribe will get his wrist examined tonight by #DrNealElAttrache.

— Dylan Hernandez (@dylanohernandez) May 26, 2012

Guerrier is a loss, but as long as Hairston is healthy, I don’t care much if Uribe comes back sooner or later.

Adam Kennedy is batting fifth (yes, fifth) for your Los Angeles Dodgers today, so in honor of that event, I thought I would breakdown a swing that he took against Clayton Richard of the San Diego Padres yesterday.

IT’S SUPER IMPORTANT!

—–

Adam Kennedy Thought Analysis: “Down by one? No problem. Adam Kennedy’s here to save the day. Sitting dead red because that’s how Adam Kennedy likes it.”

Adam Kennedy Swing Analysis: Look how strong and hopeful he looks here. Like a proud lion confident that he’s about to rule the plains. Save that image in your head for contrast purposes later.

Adam Kennedy Thought Analysis: “Throwing Adam Kennedy a fastball? LOLOLOLOL!”

Adam Kennedy Swing Analysis: You can tell he thinks he recognizes the pitch here. If you look closely, you can almost see his eyes get wider because he thinks he just got a fastball up in the zone. Yeah … oops.

Adam Kennedy Thought Analysis: “I would be rofling right now if I wasn’t about to crush this baseball like Juan Uribe does the post-game spread. Tie game, incoming.”

Adam Kennedy Swing Analysis: Shit.

Adam Kennedy Thought Analysis: “Aw fuck, is that a slider?”

Adam Kennedy Swing Analysis: Shit.

Adam Kennedy Thought Analysis: *Sigh*

Adam Kennedy Swing Analysis: My favorite part about this is the look of resignation and utter defeat on his face. It permeates the screen and should be used as a flawless example of emoting in acting school.

Adam Kennedy Thought Analysis: “Now I’m gonna get mocked by the blogs again…”

Adam Kennedy Swing Analysis: I enjoy how his head automatically goes down, as if he knows that he’s just started a race to see who can type out the most clever “Adam Kennedy sucks” tweet.

—–

Seriously though, he sucks.

Now enjoy him going 5-for-5 with 5 home runs today because I wrote this.

The Dodgers lost their best player on Monday night as Matt Kemp was placed on the disabled list with a left hamstring strain. The news was pretty much expected since before the game, when manager Don Mattingly, Kemp, and the training staff had a lengthy meeting with Dr. Neal ElAttrache about Kemp’s MRI results, which confirmed a left hamstring strain.

“It’s a mild strain, but the doctor said if you do it again, it can go from a grade one to a grade two, and then you’re talking four weeks,” Mattingly said. “Now he has a chance to get healthy, and make sure he doesn’t have any long-term effects from this thing.”

While this is a blow, I think most can agree it’s better for him to get healthy now than to risk wrecking himself, as he admitted that it was affecting his play.

He admitted he’s been playing at half-speed since injuring the leg last Saturday in Chicago. He reinjured it trying to leg out a ground ball Sunday and was removed from the game.

“I’ve been a little scared to do certain things,” he said. “I felt it in there a little bit. I just wanted to help my team any way possible, but I was babying it a little. I came to that realization.”

Perhaps the best part about all of this is that Andre Ethier may see time in center field.

Gwynn will be the primary center fielder with Kemp on the shelf, which Mattingly doesn’t think will be more than 15 days. But Mattingly also wants to make sure Gwynn doesn’t get overused, and said he would use Andre Ethier in center field for “two or three games” with Kemp out.

Yikes.

As an alternative though, why can’t Jerry Sands and Scott Van Slyke play first base? The defense is a downgrade, but James Loney still isn’t hitting.

—–

In other injury news, Juan Uribe is out.

The sudden wave of Dodgers injuries continued Monday when they had to put third baseman Juan Uribe on the 15-day disabled list with recurring left wrist soreness.

The Dodgers replaced him by purchasing the contract of Triple-A Albuquerque utility man Elian Herrera and designating outfielder Trent Oeltjen for assignment.

I’m not sure why Elian Herrera has vaulted over Trent Oeltjen all of a sudden, but it’s probably inconsequential.

I think Don Mattingly is probably the best manager the Dodgers have had since Tommy Lasorda, but his management of yesterday’s game against the Giants exposed what is probably his most glaring weakness.

—–

In the bottom of the seventh inning, with the Dodgers down one run, the team basically hit the lottery by somehow managing to get Juan Rivera and James Loney to not make outs.

That brought up Juan Uribe in what was clearly a traditional sacrifice situation, especially considering that Uribe sucks. However, while he does have 60 sacrifice bunts in his career over 5121 plate appearances, he’s had only one sacrifice bunt in the last three seasons over the course of 941 plate appearances. As such, it’s safe to say that he’s not exactly accustomed to bunting.

Uribe executing a successful sacrifice is anything but a foregone conclusion, then you add that you’re actually lessening your chances of scoring runs by bunting, and it’s just an overall terrible decision.

Mattingly though, of course, called for the bunt anyway, and it worked out SPLENDIDLY.

Then, IN THE VERY NEXT INNING, the Dodgers were put in the exact same situation after a Bobby Abreu walk and a Dee Gordon bunt single. With Mark Ellis coming up and Matt Kemp on deck, Mattingly elected to bunt with Ellis, effectively setting things up perfectly for the Giants to avoid pitching to Kemp.

Ellis was a fine option to bunt, as he has executed 12 of them in his previous three seasons, but even so, it again lessened the Dodgers chances of scoring runs.

Predictably, after the successful bunt, the Giants walked Kemp to load the bases and brought in Javier Lopez to pitch to Andre Ethier.

On cue, Ethier did that, just like it was out of a script.

It would have been sad if everybody didn’t see it coming, but judging by the reaction on Twitter, we all did see it coming.

Sigh.

—–

The only possible positive thing that could have come out of this is Mattingly learning his lesson and swearing to stop doing this in the future.

Did he?

“Neither one of those decisions I would look back and change,” Mattingly said after the game.

Welp, alrighty then.

“They have to pick between Matt and Andre, and if I can get Andre up there with the bases loaded, I’ll take it every day. He’s leading the league in RBI,” Mattingly said.

“I’m still giving two guys a chance, but I don’t even need a hit. I just need to get a ball in the air,” Mattingly said. “I have two guys that are basically leading the league in RBI and they have to take their pick.”

“I wouldn’t really change anything. We just have to execute, that’s all,” Mattingly said. “First and second nobody out we have to try to get runners over and get them in scoring position. With Mark [Ellis], I do it all the time.”

Yes, I know you do it all the time.

THAT’S THE PROBLEM