Matt Kemp suffered a setback in his recovery from a hamstring injury. The extent of the setback and how long it will keep Kemp out is not yet known.

Sunday is not good day for hamstrings at Dodger Stadium. Matt Kemp, in his first day back in Los Angeles after rehabbing for a week at Camelback Ranch in Arizona, suffered a setback while running and will not be ready to be activated from the disabled list on Friday, as originally planned.

“We’ve hit a little bit of a snag because he felt just a little something today still. We haven’t quite made a decision on where he’s going next. The running today was to see where he’s at,” manager Don Mattingly said on Sunday. “That tells us today he’s not quite there. Does that mean two days, three days, seven days? I don’t know that answer, but I do know he’s not 100%. Until we get that, then we’ll start thinking about him going out and playing.”

Yet more bad luck in what has been a lost season thus far for The Bison.

Kemp ran and was doing stretching drills with strength and conditioning coach Brandon McDaniel before Sunday’s game with the Braves, all with trainer Sue Falsone, director of medical services Stan Conte, and team physician Dr. Neal ElAttrache. Kemp did work in the outfield and on the bases, and appeared to be in a good mood in the clubhouse, hugging teammates upon his return.

“It’s always good to have Matt around. It would be really nice if he’s out in the field. It’s good to see him back,” Mattingly said. “He looks good, he’s running pretty good. He’s not quite there yet, talking to medical. We’re still not where we need to be.”

Kemp could have potentially returned this Friday from his 15-day DL stint, but they’re now saying he’s looking at a timetable of next week, but that’s contingent on him passing similar tests and going on a rehab assignment.

—–

Carl Crawford had an MRI on his hamstring injury, and swelling was discovered. He’ll miss more than the minimum on his disabled list stay.

As for Crawford, the Dodgers expect him to miss more than the minimum 15 days on the disabled list after an MRI exam on his strained left hamstring revealed swelling.

“That tells us it was fairly significant,” Mattingly said. “It doesn’t sound like two weeks.”

Crawford was placed on the disabled list on Monday, retroactive to June 2. But the Dodgers aren’t sure he will be back this month.

So yeah, that roster crunch everybody is worried about probably isn’t coming soon.

—–

Hanley Ramirez re-injured his hamstring injury late last week and has been out of the lineup since, though he has been pinch-hitting the last handful of games.

The Dodgers are without Hanley Ramirez for a second straight game against the Braves at Dodger Stadium, only Friday night isn’t a scheduled day of rest. Ramirez has tightness in his left hamstring, the same one that landed him on the disabled list for a month with a strain, per Ken Gurnick of MLB.com.

Ken Gurnick reports HanRam also felt stiffness behind his knee, and Don Mattingly fears a DL stint could be necessary, though trainers disagree.

Hanley underwent an MRI Sunday, and the results were probably about as good as can be expected.

“He’s having continued problems enough that they want to get another look at this thing,” said manager Don Mattingly. “We’ll find out if it’s going to be more serious than we’ve been talking about.”

His current status, well before the MRI results are known, is that he hit but can’t run. Mattingly used pitcher Clayton Kershaw to pinch run for Ramirez after he singled in the eighth inning Saturday.

“Guys want to play, but when they can’t run it’s hard to play,” Mattingly said. “Especially with playing short.”

Dodgers will go a man short for the next week, then he’ll aggravate it somehow after pinch hitting and he’ll be put on the DL. Probably.

—–

Josh Beckett has been shut down for four weeks as he attempts to return from nerve irritation and numbness in his right hand and arm.

Dodgers pitcher Josh Beckett will be shut down from throwing for four weeks because of nerve irritation in his right arm and hand, the team announced on Tuesday. Beckett, who saw a nerve specialist in Dallas who confirmed the initial diagnosis, is expected to return to the team on Tuesday.

Manager Don Mattingly said earlier Tuesday that Beckett’s condition wouldn’t require surgery, that rehab would be the route taken by the right-hander. Beckett will continue that rehab on Tuesday.

But with four weeks without throwing, it could be at least two months before he could realistically return to actually pitch for the Dodgers.

The Dodgers and Beckett have chosen rehab over surgery.

—–

Scott Elbert will undergo Tommy John surgery and is done for this year and much of next.

Dodgers relief pitcher Scott Elbert’s 2013 season is over before it ever began. The left-hander needs Tommy John surgery and is out for the season, and with an expected recovery of 12-16 months his 2014 campaign is in question as well.

Elbert was diagnosed with a complete tear of his ulnar collateral ligament after meeting with Dr. Neal ElAttrache and having an MRI exam on Tuesday.

Unfortunately, he just couldn’t stay healthy. Strong non-tender candidate after the season.

—–

Ted Lilly was scratched from his last start due to a “chronic neck disc issue” and hit the DL Sunday.

Dodgers left-hander Ted Lilly will be scratched from Sunday’s start against the Braves because of a chronic neck disc issue. He most likely will be replaced by Triple-A Albuquerque’s Matt Magill, although the club has not made any announcement.

Chronic and neck are never two words you want to hear in tandem.

—–

Scott Van Slyke has been playing with neck and shoulder discomfort … because of course.

Van Slyke has been playing through worsening discomfort that originated from an attempted diving catch of Yadier Molina’s double on May 25. At the time, Van Slyke described the injury as similar to whiplash.

He pinch-ran yesterday, though.

—–

A number of minor-leaguers were placed on and activated from the 7-day DL, with the most notable name being top prospect Corey Seager.

Placed on 7-day DL: RHP Angel Castro, RHP Luis Vasquez, 1B Paul Hoenecke, OF Ryan Mount
Reinstated from DL: RHP Kyle Cofield, RHP Matt Shelton, RHP Sean White, LHP Onelki Garcia, 2B Pedro Guerrero, SS Corey Seager, OF Joey Winker

Seager came back and hit a homer, so everything seems good on that front. The injury won’t be a concern to his long-term prospects.

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Greg Zakwin is the founder of the site Plaschke Thy Sweater Is Argyle. Follow him on Twitter @ArgyledPlaschke and find him contributing at Yahoo! Sports.

It’s been a tough week for Matt Kemp, injury-wise. First, he was hit on the right elbow by a pitch and had to be removed later in that game due to numbness.

For the second time in four days, Matt Kemp was replaced by Skip Schumaker in center field during the game. But on Tuesday against the Angels, the ninth inning move happened because Kemp felt numbness after he was hit by a pitch on his right elbow in the second inning.

“He came to me in like the seventh. He got hit on the elbow. Something was going on with his fingers, and he didn’t feel like he could throw,” manager Don Mattingly said. “He basically said, ‘I don’t want to screw this up. I can’t really throw the ball, but I feel good swinging.’”

Both Mattingly and Kemp downplayed the injury. Mattingly said he expects Kemp to play on Wednesday and didn’t expect Kemp to need an MRI, saying, “I hope it’s nothing that gets to that.”

Kemp reported that he couldn’t grip the ball and throw it, which is quite scary.

He did return later in the week, only to suffer a mild strain of his hamstring and leave that game early. It was the opposite hamstring that he injured last season, and Kemp underwent an MRI on Thursday.

Following the MRI, the Dodgers did the smart thing and decided to play it safe by placing Kemp on the 15-day DL.

Fortunately though, it does seem like he’s looking at the minimum time.

“We feel he’s going to be ready in close to two weeks,” Mattingly said of Kemp, who missed two months last year with a hamstring strain on his other leg.

Unlike what some are saying, I doubt playing a week or so of rehab games is going to fix his mechanics, but he does get a mental break.

—–

Hanley Ramirez‘s rehab assignment was pushed back to Friday, as he looks to return from a hamstring injury.

Ramirez, on the disabled list due to a strained left hamstring, will join the Quakes on Friday for the second game of a four-game series at Bakersfield.

Ramirez hoped to begin his rehab on Thursday, but the Dodgers pushed it back to Friday following his workout at Angel Stadium on Wednesday, though the club said he did not suffer a setback.

Ramirez tweeted: “All is well, but I’ll be in Bakersfield on Friday. We decided to push it back one more day #dodgerblue #cantwait.”

Dodgers manager Don Mattingly said Ramirez needs to play around four rehab games, which would put him on track to be activated during a three-game series against the Padres at Dodger Stadium that begins on Monday.

“I’ve got to test [the hamstring] out and see how it feels,” Ramirez said Wednesday before the Dodgers’ game against the Angels.

He played in the game, seemingly without issue, but he wants to see how he recovers the day after.

“I’m tired but I feel good,” Ramirez said. “There wasn’t any pain or nothing like that. I couldn’t get on base but let’s see tomorrow.”

Besides the injury, I wonder if all this time off will affect his performance at the plate any. It’s been months since he’s gotten regular at-bats against quality pitching.

—–

Josh Beckett is scheduled to see a nerve specialist on Monday.

Injured Dodgers pitcher Josh Beckett will see a nerve specialist on Monday, the next step in determining the cause of the numbing sensation in his fingers.

Beckett is scheduled to visit Dr. Gregory Pearl in Dallas, Texas, the same surgeon who operated on Cardinals pitcher Chris Carpenter’s right shoulder last season.

Beckett, on the disabled list with a left groin strain, had his throwing program shut down last week after the numbness in his fingers continued during a bullpen session.

“The frustrating thing that I’m having right now is I don’t have pain, I just have ineffectiveness and numbness where I can’t actually feel the baseball,” Beckett said on Thursday.

Beckett is 0-5 with a 5.19 ERA in eight starts this season. He said he continued to pitch despite the lingering issue because the Dodgers were short on starters earlier in the season after losing Chad Billingsley for the year and dealing with Zack Greinke’s broken left collarbone.

“It’s something I’ve been dealing with,” Beckett said of the numbness in his right fingers. “I’m not sure exactly when it came on. It wasn’t painful. At the time we were losing starters left and right, so I felt like I needed to pitch because I didn’t have any pain.”

Once again, pitching or playing hurt to help the team is admirable in theory, but costly in reality on so many levels.

Beckett fears he may have to retire due to the continued numbness in his fingers.

“Any time something like that happens to your arm or you start losing feeling and stuff . . . you think about [retirement] for sure,” Beckett, who is on the disabled list after four to five weeks of numbness in the fingers on his right hand, told the Times. “I don’t really want to think like that right now. I want to think about figuring out a way to deal with this.”

Scary, scary stuff.

Would be a rather sad ending to his career, but I hope he was just in the moment.

—–

A.J. Ellis, following a tough week of his own, is now dealing with an oblique injury.

Dodgers catcher A.J. Ellis is dealing with an issue in his left oblique, manager Don Mattingly said on Thursday.

Ellis was held out of the lineup for Thursday’s Freeway Series finale against the Angels.

“We feel like it’s a day or two days,” Mattingly said on Thursday afternoon. “We’ll see how that goes.”

Could Ellis require a stint on the disabled list?

“If this thing would go the wrong direction, it would be [a DL situation],” Mattingly said.

Oblique issues are always worrisome because they’re unpredictable and generally take time to heal. A.J. being okay is more important than it should be, as his backups are Ramon Hernandez and Tim Federowicz.

—–

Hyun Jin Ryu had x-rays on his left foot, which came back negative.

The Dodgers expect left-hander Hyun-Jin Ryu to make his scheduled start on Sunday after taking a line drive off the top of his left foot during his shutout of the Angels on Tuesday.

X-rays on Ryu’s left foot were negative. He had his foot in a bucket of ice Wednesday afternoon in the visiting clubhouse at Angel Stadium.

“Obviously he’s a little bit sore,” manager Don Mattingly said before Wednesday’s game against the Angels. “I think he’s going to be fine. We expect him to be ready by his next start [on Sunday in Colorado].”

It’s honestly getting to the point now where anytime there’s any type of physical collision, we expect the 60-day DL.

—–

Nick Punto suffered a bone bruise in his back after falling awkwardly near second base on a play in the field.

It seems fitting that in a year when the Dodgers have suffered so many injuries, two innings after they optioned Dee Gordon to Triple-A Albuquerque their depth at shortstop became immediately tested. Nick Punto collided with a sliding Erick Aybar for the final out of the second inning in the Dodgers’ 8-7 win over the Angels on Monday, and landed squarely on his back.

Punto suffered a bone bruise in his back, though it’s not something he considers serious.

“As the game was going on it felt alright. As long I kemp moving, it felt okay. We’ll just see how it feels,” Punto said. “I’m sure it’s just a bruise, but we’ll see.”

Punto remained in the game until after the fifth inning, when he was double-switched out of the game.

“It was just getting stiffer and stiffer as the game went on,” manager Don Mattingly said of Punto’s back.

He’s actually been solid filling in this season, so any long-term issue here would hurt the club, although he’s not going to keep hitting at the level he has thus far, unless you expect a .402 BABIP to stick with him.

—–

Jerry Hairston Jr. was activated from the DL, while Scott Elbert was retroactively moved to the 60-day DL as he continues to rehab and work his way back.

—–

Stephen Fife threw a simulated game and is scheduled to throw another as he works his way back from right shoulder bursitis.

Stephen Fife has had a slow recovery from right shoulder bursitis, but was able to throw one simulated game already. Mattingly said Fife will throw another simulated game of approximately 70 pitches at some point this week. Fife last pitched for the Dodgers on Apr. 21.

Should be interesting to see whether it’s him or Matt Magill that gets the first call should a pitcher go down. Either way, better to have both than one or the other.

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Greg Zakwin is the founder of the site Plaschke Thy Sweater Is Argyle. Follow him on Twitter @ArgyledPlaschke.

Hanley Ramirez‘s rehab is going well, but the team isn’t keen on rushing him, so he’s still two weeks away.

Hanley Ramirez tested his hamstring running in the outfield, and Mattingly said the shortstop continues to make progress, although he is still probably two weeks away from playing.

As was the case the first time he came back from injury, given what the Dodgers have been running out on the left side of the infield, his return could have the biggest impact on the team to date.

—–

Scott Elbert continued his rehab assignment at High-A Rancho Cucamonga…

Dodgers reliever Scott Elbert pitched a scoreless sixth inning with the Quakes, allowing one hit and walking one. The left-hander has tossed three scoreless innings since beginning his rehab assignment on Friday. He’s working his way back from a pair of elbow operations during the winter.

…then made an appearance at Double-A Chattanooga on Saturday.

Elbert started and threw 13 pitches after already making three relief appearances with Class A Rancho Cucamonga. He allowed a single and RBI double to the first two batters he faced, then retired the next three hitters.

Elbert could be back to help the bullpen later this week, as his velocity his risen in recent appearances.

At the start of the season, he seemed like a luxury due to J.P. Howell and Paco Rodriguez, but now the bullpen could desperately use another quality arm.

—–

Zack Greinke was activated from the DL ahead of schedule and made a very good return to action.

In a corresponding move, Josh Beckett hit the 15-day DL following speculation that he was hurt and would need time to heal.

The Los Angeles Dodgers seemed to have a hard time getting the story straight after Monday’s 6-2 loss to the Washington Nationals. Josh Beckett, who is 0-5 with a 5.19 ERA, left the game after just three innings in part, manager Don Mattingly said, because he slightly strained a groin muscle covering first base on an Adam LaRoche groundout.

Beckett is also battling an assortment of minor injuries, Mattingly said. But what?

“He’s had some little stuff going on in different areas, and I think it was bothering him tonight,” Mattingly said.

Little stuff, such as?

“We had known some little stuff was going on,” Mattingly said.

I don’t know how they treat things here,” he [Beckett] said.

He also said, “I’m healthy enough to pitch,” which might be a regrettable phrase if the Dodgers, indeed, put Beckett on the 15-day disabled list Tuesday. The timing would be opportune as it appears Zack Greinke will come off the DL to pitch against Washington Wednesday night. Mattingly wouldn’t confirm that Greinke will pitch Wednesday, but said they’ve settled on a starter.

Either that’s a phantom DL or there’s a scary disconnect between the player and the training staff here.

—–

Ted Lilly claims he’s healthy and ready to get back to major-league action.

Dodgers left-hander Ted Lilly declared himself healthy after going five innings during a Minor League rehab start with Class A Rancho Cucamonga on Wednesday night.

Lilly allowed four runs on five hits, striking out three against three walks as the Quakes lost to the San Jose Giants, 4-3.

The veteran said he felt no discomfort from a strained right rib cage that forced him to the disabled list May 3. He was in the Dodgers’ clubhouse after their 3-1 win over the Nationals and will travel with the club to Atlanta for a three-game series that begins Friday.

Lilly said he does not expect to make another start in the Minors, though he said he hasn’t spoken to management about the next step in his rehab.

Just because he might be healthy doesn’t mean he’ll be productive, but he was activated from the DL on Monday anyway, and he will start for the team on Saturday.

—–

Scott Van Slyke had x-rays on his left leg after fouling back-to-back pitches off said leg.

X-rays were negative on the lower left leg of Dodgers outfielder Scott Van Slyke, who exited Sunday’s 5-2 loss against the Braves after he fouled consecutive pitches off his leg in a seventh-inning at-bat.

Van Slyke said there was no fracture, although it was “pretty sore” having fouled the pitches “an inch apart on the same ligament.”

He said he’ll be able to return to action immediately, as long as he can tolerate the discomfort.

“I should be good,” he said.

Last thing the team needed was the only bench bat with pop going down.

—–

Luis Cruz is apparently dealing with bone spurs in his throwing elbow now, which Chad brought up as potentially foreshadowing a phantom DL case.

—–

Mark Ellis was activated from the DL, saying his rehab was over and he’s ready to go.

—–

Corey Seager has been placed on the minor-league 7-day DL with a hamstring injury.

The 18th pick in last year’s draft, Corey Seager will take a break from his full-season debut as he rehabs a hamstring injury. He hit .267/.333/.410 with three homers in 29 games for low Class A Great Lakes, giving him a .743 OPS that is comfortably above the Midwest League average.

While Seager hasn’t been tearing it up like he did last year, he’s been better than league average and is still extremely young for pro ball.

—–

Minor-league injury news includes one important return.

Placed on 7-day DL: RHP Jonathan Martinez, RHP Sean White, LHP Jake Hermsen, C John Cannon, 1B Paul Hoenecke
Reinstated from DL: RHP Jon Michael Redding, C Webster Rivas, 2B Elevys Gonzalez, OF Alex Castellanos, OF Jeremy Moore, OF Devin Shines

Alex Castellanos is now back in the mix.

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Greg Zakwin is the founder of the site Plaschke Thy Sweater Is Argyle. Follow him on Twitter @ArgyledPlaschke and find him contributing at Yahoo! Sports.

The Dodgers signed former Giants and Royals lefty Jonathan Sanchez to a minor-league deal, sending him to the Albuquerque Isotopes.

2:17pm: The Dodgers will sign Jonathan Sanchez to a minor league deal, according to Pedro Gomez of ESPN (on Twitter). The contract is pending a physical, and Sanchez is likely to report to Triple-A Albquerque. Sanchez is represented by the McNamara Baseball Group.

4:00pm: Sanchez has a July 1 opt-out date if he’s not on the Major League roster, according to Chris Cotillo of CLNS Radio (on Twitter). Mark Saxon of ESPN Los Angeles confirms the report (Twitter link).

Eric Stephen has more.

On the surface, this seems like a lottery ticket move by the Dodgers, looking to recapture some of the magic of the pitcher who threw a no-hitter and struck out over a batter per inning in six years with the Giants. Sanchez has been an absolute mess the past two seasons, as he is 0-12 in his last 18 starts with a 9.13 ERA, 58 walks, and 52 strikeouts in 71 innings. Sanchez was 0-3 with an 11.85 ERA in five appearances with the Pirates this season before his release on May 8.

Ned Colletti has always enjoyed picking pitchers up from the scrap heap, though it has almost always been relievers. Sanchez was a Giant though, so that hasn’t changed.

—–

Zack Greinke was activated from the DL on the May 15, with Josh Beckett being placed on the disabled list in a corresponding move.

The Dodgers activated Zack Greinke from the disabled list on Wednesday to start against the Nationals, but another starting pitcher took his place on the shelf. Josh Beckett was placed on the 15-day disabled list with a left groin strain to make room for Greinke, and becomes the sixth Dodgers starting pitcher to hit the disabled list this season.

The team is finally getting healthy, so a more accurate picture of the squad can begin to be gleaned as we move forward.

—–

Ted Lilly came off of the DL on Monday as well, with Matt Magill heading to AAA to open up a spot on the 25-man roster.

The Dodgers on Monday before their game against the Brewers activated Ted Lilly from the disabled list and, as expected, optioned Matt Magill to Triple-A Albuquerque. The next question is whether or not the Dodgers use Thursday’s off day to skip that spot in the rotation for now.

Lilly’s long-term role has yet to be determined. He’s starting Saturday and will likely get at least a couple of turns in the rotation before Beckett returns.

A couple of good starts and perhaps the Dodgers can deal him. Or at least Ned would trade for him. Too bad he’s the GM of the Dodgers.

—–

Juan Noriega was loaned to Monclova of the Mexican League, and Eliezer Alfonzo was sent to Mexico City.

The team also released catcher Selme Angulo.

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Greg Zakwin is the founder of the site Plaschke Thy Sweater Is Argyle. Follow him on Twitter @ArgyledPlaschke.

Dodgers designated hitter third baseman first baseman shortstop Hanley Ramirez jammed his right thumb while diving for a groundball in the World Baseball Classic and he’ll get an MRI today at the Camelback Ranch.

His WBC manager and general manager gave differing takes on the severity of it.

“I don’t think it’s bad,” Dominican coach Alfredo Griffin said.

Ramirez, playing third base for the Dominican, jammed the thumb while diving for a ground ball in the third inning. He remained in the game, even delivering a single in the fourth inning, but left after five innings.

Ramirez declined comment through a team spokesman. Dominican Manager Tony Pena said he removed Ramirez for precautionary reasons, even though Ramirez told Pena he could have gone on.

So Tony Pena didn’t think it was bad, but it’s odd to me that Hanley declined comment on it if he wasn’t worried, and maybe it’s because he is a bit, as Moises Alou sounded.

“Hanley, he jammed his thumb when he dove for that ball,” Alou said after the Dominican Republic ran off eight consecutive wins to go undefeated and win the Classic for the first time. “It was pretty swollen. He’s going to have an MRI on it [Wednesday] in Arizona.”

I guess there are differing versions of ‘serious’ at play here.

Just recently, Stan Conte spoke and although he hasn’t had an MRI yet, they’ve already ruled Hanley out for a couple weeks.

Director of medical services Stan Conte spoke with the doctor at AT&T Park, and team trainer Sue Falsone was in contact with Ramirez on Tuesday night. Both relayed their information to manager Don Mattingly.

“They painted both pictures. The optimistic side is that he had another at-bat and it’s just a sprain and it could be a couple of weeks,” Mattingly said. “The pessimistic side is that it could be something major and he’s out 8-10 weeks.”

So he’s going to miss time, regardless, and they’re obviously worried. If he misses two months of the regular season … welcome Juan Uribe.

—–

Zack Greinke threw a bullpen session on Sunday and reported no pain in his right elbow, which had been bothering him recently and been diagnosed as inflamed.

“I guess I could have something, but I’m assuming it’s going to fine to be on track to do whatever, but I don’t know for sure,” Greinke said.

“I probably threw a little more (than expected). I felt good. I was working on stuff, and trying to make sure I’m ready for a game,” Greinke said. “I’m just trying to get ready. I don’t think about it as a rehab.”

“I’m just doing what’s laid out, to give us the best chance. On our team we have other starting pitchers, and we have to be ready. They’re going to weigh all that in,” Greinke said. “I just want to do what’s best for the team. It’s not important what day [I make my first start of the season].”

It’s encouraging to see Greinke make it through a session without pain, and he’ll start a minor-league affair today with a strict pitch count in place. A.J. Ellis will catch Greinke instead of suiting up with the rest of the squad.

Manager Don Mattingly said that Greinke will pitch in a Minor League game in the afternoon, with A.J. Ellis staying back to catch instead of playing in the Dodgers’ Cactus League game against Kansas City.

The team should not feel rushed to get him back by Opening Day if he needs an extra week or two to get healthy for a long, long, long season.

—–

Chad Billingsley‘s elbow has held up all Spring Training, but unfortunately he hasn’t escaped the injury bug as a sore groin is now accompanied by a bruised index finger on his pitching hand.

The finger forced Bills out of his scheduled outing.

“I’m just taking it day by day, seeing how I feel,” Billingsley said. “I’m still playing catch, but the command is just not there because it’s bruised and swollen.”

“(We’re not) trying to force him into this one. We’re concerned about the finger from the standpoint of changing a grip, then not having a grip pressure then changing an arm angle. With everything that has gone on, we really don’t want that,” Mattingly said. “The one thing with Bills, we want to make sure he’s able to throw.”

Glad to see Don Mattingly and his staff aren’t putting pressure on Chad to tough it out and are cognizant of the fact that doing so could lead to a change in mechanics.

But how did Billingsley injure himself, you might ask?

Bunting.

Yes, Matt, bunting.

Billingsley was scratched from Wednesday’s scheduled outing due to the finger. He’s scheduled for a bullpen session instead, and game action on Saturday.

—–

Carl Crawford, who has been dealing with elbow issues during Spring Training, saw improvement Monday in his ability to swing the bat and throw the ball.

“It’s good to see him get a couple of hits, which makes him feel better and more part of it. But even better today for me was him throwing, and Stan (Conte, team director of medical services) working with him on the cuts,” Mattingly said. “He had a lot on the ball. That was really positive today.”

“I’m throwing a little bit harder at (75-80) feet,” Crawford said. “At some point the goal is to be able to hit the cut off man, I’m not sure how many feet that is but that’s the goal.”

Once Crawford can hit the cutoff man, he’ll be cleared by the staff to play left field. Until such an event actually occurs, Carl will continue to DH.

It’s great that there’s no serious issue at play here, but the quotes on his throwing aren’t exactly glowing.

Though Crawford has also made progress throwing, it seems that won’t return until the regular season. But as long as Crawford is ready with the bat, that will determine when he’s ready.

“I don’t think he’s going to be 100% (throwing). When I asked Stan (Conte, director of medical services) when is he ready to really throw and he said, ‘May.’ So it’s going to be a work in progress,” Mattingly said. “But we’re building to a point where we’re comfortable with him being out there. We’re feeling good about everything about Carl right now.”

I couldn’t imagine a worse-throwing outfielder than Juan Pierre, but it looks like we might see it.

—–

Josh Beckett has the flu, which I can only imagine he caught from Ted Lilly.

Regardless, Beckett did start a simulated game against three minor-leaguers and Jerry Hairston Jr..

“Everything went good,” manager Don Mattingly reported. “He got better as the game went on. He was happy about being able to get it in. He was worried that if he did it in a [Cactus League] game and he had a long inning, he wouldn’t get his pitch count up and the up-and-downs. He seemed to be happy with it.”

Beckett threw 76 pitches and went through the up-and-down of six innings, pitching and resting in between.

Beckett’s had an excellent spring, so hopefully he won’t miss too much time – he’s been under the weather two days thus far – as he looks to carry his exhibition success into the meaningful regular season.

—–

Chris Withrow, who had been out with back spasms all Spring Training, returned briefly only to be injured by a liner off the shin.

Withrow escaped with a bruise from the Paul Goldschmidt shot, and he said he expects to be back in action in a couple of days.

“It’s been a pretty adventurous spring,” said Withrow. “I came in ready to go. For my back to go out the second day was kind of frustrating. Then the second batter, after seven months off, that’s not ideal either. Things happen for a reason.”

The guy just can’t seem to stay healthy, even when it comes to living life off the field, as a recent close-call indicates.

Things were adventurous for Withrow even before Spring Training started. He and his wife survived an offseason rollover auto accident with only minor injuries.

Hopefully he can find some good health in his future, as you can never have enough live arms with strikeout stuff.

—–

Dee Gordon is day-to-day after slightly spraining his ankle in a collision at home, according to Don Mattingly.

The shortstop walked off the field and back to the clubhouse on his own, and the injury isn’t believed to be serious.

Chad provided us with visual proof of Gordon attempting to run over (?) Miguel Montero on an overall laughable play.

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Greg Zakwin is the founder of the site Plaschke Thy Sweater Is Argyle. Follow him on Twitter @ArgyledPlaschke.

Dodgers starter Josh Beckett is one of many high-risk, high-reward types of players coming into 2013, and at the time of his acquisition, he was seen as somewhat of a throw-in. This was partially because of his contract, but the fact is that both the statistics and the scouting reports matched up to say that he looked more like a #5 than a #1.

The velocity he once had (as high as 94.7 mph in 2006) is now generally gone (91.4 mph in 2012), so my primary concern was whether or not he was going to be able to adjust to not having his go-to gas anymore. Given his reputation as a hard-head in Boston, the fact that he gained a reputation for pumping fastball after fastball into the strike zone (as high as 69%/top 5 in MLB), and that his fastball performed so miserably in 2012, I had my doubts about whether he was even willing to adjust, much less able to make the transition successful.

However, recently during Spring Training, he acknowledged his loss of velocity and that he’s been working on adjusting to his new reality.

Instead, as Beckett has learned in recent years, he must do things differently. His velocity has declined, so he’s throwing more cutters and curveballs, fretting more about location than at any point before.

“I think velocity is something that leaves you at some point in your career,” Beckett said. “It’s a game of adjustments anyway. We all have to make ‘em. I think I have to rely more on location instead of trying to throw it through a wall. That’s something where you have to set your ego aside. You still have the same mentality. You go about it the same way. But there are certain times where you think, ‘I’m going to throw this ball by this guy.’ Then you think, ‘Wait a minute, I can’t do that. All right, I’m going to throw the ball off the corner and have it work just off the corner.’”

I found this interesting because: 1) he specifically mentioned putting ego aside to do the right thing for success and 2) he seemed aware that some type of adjustments were necessary, which made me take a look at his past pitch distribution.

*Click To Enlarge*

Basically, how he attacks hitters has been a work in progress since at least 2010, which is when his fastball usage came down to about league average. Granted, that’s not all positive, as he’s had up and down results in spite of his efforts, posting FIPs of 3.63, 4.54, 3.57, and 4.15 over the last four years.

The promising thing though is that I don’t think getting him to mix pitches will be as significant of a task as I originally thought, because it’s clear he has already bought in. Thus, if he can stave off further fastball regression, and given the success of his curve in 2012, I feel a lot more comfortable with him potentially achieving his #3 upside, or at least remaining a solid rotation piece, either of which is what the team really needs due to the ticking time bomb in Chad Billingsley‘s right elbow.

The Dodgers pitchers and catchers report to Camelback Ranch today, on Feb. 12, which officially kicks off the baseball season for the team, and tomorrow, on Feb. 13, they’ll have their first workout, in which I like to imagine Aaron Harang lumbering through conditioning drills like a monkey.

The rest of the team will report to camp on Feb. 15, and Spring Training will be in full swing the following day, on Feb. 16, as they get their first team workout in, which hopefully includes Josh Beckett running around a lot, so he doesn’t look like this:

The team’s first Spring Training game will take place a week after the whole team reports, on Feb. 23 against the White Sox, who they share the facility with. On March 5, the minor-league portion of pitchers and catchers report, while everybody else comes in on March 11.

The last game of Spring Training will come on March 29 against the Angels (ANAHEIM!), with Opening Day following shortly at home against the rival Giants on April 1. I’m eternally glad that the Dodgers open with them at home, because I would puke all over myself if I was forced to watch the Giants having a celebration or something.

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The daily schedule on game days, via Dodgers press release:

Afternoon Games (1:05 p.m. starts):

Dodger BP: Until 11:15 a.m.
Visitor BP: 11:15 a.m.-12:15 p.m.
Visitor Infield: 12:20 p.m.-12:30 p.m.
Dodger Infield: 12:30 p.m.-12:40 p.m.

Night Games (7:05 p.m. starts):

Dodger BP: Until 5:15 p.m.
Visitor BP: 5:15 p.m.-6:15 p.m.
Visitor Infield: 6:20 p.m.-6:30 p.m.
Dodger Infield: 6:30 p.m.-6:40 p.m.

That’s not all that’s going on during this spring though, as on March 1 the World Baseball Classic will start with Australia playing Taiwan. The tournament is primarily relevant to Dodger fans because of players like Adrian Gonzalez (Mexico), Luis Cruz (Mexico), Hanley Ramirez (Dominican Republic), Ronald Belisario (Venezuela), Nick Punto (Italy), and Paco Rodriguez (Spain).

Not sure it affects Punto or A-Gon much, and it’s a miracle that Belisario is even in America at this time, but I doubt Cruz or Paco will benefit from not being in camp for their first Spring Training ever with real expectations, plus Hanley not ever playing shortstop the spring after playing horrible shortstop in 2012 is bad news (as has been said over and over).

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Additionally, via Roberto Baly of Vin Scully Is My Homeboy, here are the Dodgers home and away Spring Training caps.

Loving the home caps.

The 2013 projection for the Dodgers from Dan Szymborski‘s ZiPS system was released last week, and given that it’s probably my favorite forecasting tool, it’s worth a look to see how the team fared.

Forecasting is not a complete science, obviously, and I’ll address some of the potential pitfalls as we go along, but it’s better to use objective tools like these than the hopes/dreams of fans or the bitterness/wishes of haters.

To start us off, how does the team fare, generally speaking? A solid playoff contender, for sure, but a super team? Doesn’t seem likely.

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The Field Players

Despite all the hype over the recent acquisitions, the key cogs in this machine are still Clayton Kershaw and Matt Kemp. It’s a promising sign then, that Kemp projects at a 144 OPS+ and the system has confidence in him continuing to put up offensive numbers in the ~.900 OPS range. His defense in center still lags below average, but his bat more than makes up for it. His playing time projection has dropped due to his injury woes last season, and quite frankly, it’s hard to fault it for that. Regardless, he still figures to be the most valuable field player on the team.

Adrian Gonzalez is slated to be another bright spot, as ZiPS pegs him to bounceback a bit, though not as much as some want, clocking in at an ~.830 OPS/128 OPS+. That would still be his lowest OPS+ since 2008 (besides 2012, of course), but it’s a marked improvement considering his age and negatively trending skills. A-Gon compensates for that lagging bat a bit by putting up plus defense almost worth a win by itself. Hanley Ramirez factors in as yet another bounceback candidate, projecting at a 115 OPS+, which is an upgrade over last year’s 106 and is closer to his pre-2011 production. Defensively, even his horribad -8 run defensive rating is optimistic to me, as he was truly terrible with the glove last year. Given that I already wanted to barf seeing him trying to turn a double play in 2012, I wouldn’t be surprised at all to see him put up horrid defensive numbers after basically not playing the position all of spring.

Unfortunately, that’s where a lot of the offensive optimism ends. Luis Cruz checks in at 84 OPS+ (106 last year), which will anger many fans, but is completely reasonable given the track record. He remains valuable through plus defense, though given the sample size, there’s reason to be skeptical there as well. A.J. Ellis at 96 OPS+ (118) is another depressing but completely logical projection, as evidenced by everybody’s surprise in 2012 at his potent bat. Andre Ethier at 112 OPS+ (123) is hard to figure for me, because he has been consistently putting up ~120 OPS+ seasons even if it has come down from the ~130 OPS+ range two years ago. I suppose the projection system thinks he’ll get old in a hurry … or maybe it just thinks he’ll face an inordinately high amount of lefties. Mark Ellis at 81 OPS+ (93) shouldn’t be much of a surprise considering he’s 36 and put up an 80 OPS+ at Coors Field in 2011.

The last guy of the starters is Carl Crawford, who is the enigma of the 2013 season. He checks in at 104, which is notable because it’s basically his career OPS+ and it’s about what he did in limited time in 2012 over in Boston. That’s of particular note for me, because what he did in Boston in 2012 can be attributed to a mechanical fix that I pointed out in an article for Baseball Prospectus. Understandably, his playing time checks in low, but if he can produce like he did in 2012 but over a whole season, the Dodgers will be much better for it.

Overall, after fixing the playing time of A.J., adjusting Ethier’s offense up a bit, and adjusting Hanley’s defense down a bit, the starting lineup totaled about 22 WAR.

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The Bench & The Prospects

Assuming a bench of Tim Federowicz, Scott Van Slyke or Alex Castellanos, Jerry Hairston Jr., Nick Punto, and Skip Schumaker, we’re looking at around 3 WAR here after playing time is adjusted back to realistic bench levels. I’m guessing Alfredo Amezaga or Tony Gwynn Jr. work their way in somehow, but a five-man bench seems likely initially if the Dodgers can’t deal multiple pitchers before the season starts. Neither player would affect the WAR projection much though.

Honestly? I have to hope the Dodgers do something to improve the bench, because the current configuration looks rather mediocre, and the other options are keeping Juan Uribe and/or Elian Herrera. Yuck.

The good news is that Joc Pederson, T-Fed, SVS, and Castle are projected to be solid at the MLB level, though it sees Dee Gordon basically languishing behind.

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The Rotation

Clayton Kershaw is simply a beast, and he figures to check in with a 75 FIP-. This might seem high considering his 2011 and 2012 ERA- figures of 63 and 67, respectively, but when you consider that Felix Hernandez clocks in at 78 FIP- for 2013, you get the picture.

What might surprise is how close new acquisition Zack Greinke comes in behind him, as he figures to put up an FIP- of 81. Granted, he has always projected favorably, as his career FIP- is 80, while his career ERA- is 88, but even adjusting slightly for that, there’s a definite case there for the best 1-2 punch in the majors.

Unfortunately, this is where it gets murky, as Chad Billingsley has the stuff to be the #3, but if I were a betting man, I would bet his elbow implodes before July. He projects at 92 FIP-, which would put him around last year’s performance, which was his arguably his best season since 2008. However, given the nature of his injury and its history in the league, you can basically never rely on him to stay healthy again until he has Tommy John surgery.

Next in the pecking order are Josh Beckett, who comes in below-average at 103, and foreign import Hyun Jin Ryu, who comes in well below-average at 116. As mentioned before, the scouting reports for Beckett match this projection, as he’s no longer a front-line starter due to his decrease in velocity. However, if he can manage to learn to pitch a bit more, he still has the curve to perhaps slot in as a #3 more than a #4. Ryu is a case where I would take any projection with a mound of salt, because there’s hardly anything to base objective projections on. Personally, I don’t think Ryu has the stuff to be a #2, nor do I think he’ll be a #3 on a team with a $250 million payroll, but he should slot in comfortably in the back-end of the rotation for years. I would project something slightly below-average for 2013 and then hope for better.

The rotation is a strong point because it has both arguably the best 1-2 punch in the majors and depth, with Chris Capuano (108 FIP-) and Aaron Harang (114 FIP) presumably traded for upgrades (or maybe kept somehow?), and it checks in at about 17 WAR.

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The Bullpen & The Prospects

As of right now, I’m assuming a bullpen of Brandon League, Kenley Jansen, Ronald Belisario, Javy Guerra, Matt Guerrier, J.P. Howell, and Ted Lilly.

Jansen is the best of the bunch (63 FIP-) and League projects a distant second (92 FIP-), but Belisario has the most upside in these projections (101 FIP-). After that, Guerra, Guerrier, and Howell are all around replacement level. Lilly projects as a league-average pitcher, assuming he’s healthy, which would be a boon to a team that has a ticking time bomb in the rotation.

As far as prospects go, ZiPS thinks Chris Reed could be a replacement-level fill-in right now, but Zach Lee, Matt Magill, and Garrett Gould need more seasoning. And for all of you who have Stephen Fife wet dreams (yes, you’re out there), he projects at a 4.91 FIP, so keep it in your pants.

Speaking of replacement level, that especially applies to the Dodgers bullpen because of Shawn Tolleson, Scott Elbert, Steven Ames, and Paco Rodriguez, so the 4 WAR projection for this pen figures to be solid.

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Team Projection

A replacement-level team figures to win 43 games, and the team with the lowest amount of wins to get into the playoffs last year was the Cardinals at 88 wins, so 42 WAR puts you in the contender range and 45 WAR makes you viable, while 50 WAR will generally make a team a safe bet to be in the postseason. The Dodgers total 46 WAR, which puts them well within the playoff hunt: good but not great.

The Dodgers basically project neck-and-neck with the rival Giants, while the D-Backs lag behind a bit by maybe a half dozen wins or so, but they’re well within striking distance as well.

So make no mistake, the Dodgers recent spending habits did not make them an elite team, as the money simply duct-taped over both a flawed team and farm system depleted by Frank McCourt‘s ownership and Ned Colletti‘s questionable decisions. But that’s not to denigrate the job the new owners have done, as they turned the franchise into a legitimate playoff contender seemingly overnight, which is still saying a lot about what money can do.

Granted, “we gave you a team that has the chance to make the playoffs” is not what fans want to hear, but it’s an acceptable scenario as they lay the foundation to rebuild the franchise the correct way in their own minds. The 2013 projections might not reflect world-beaters like most seem to expect, but it’s a projection based on historical trends rather than hopes and dreams.

The 2013 Dodgers are indeed a team with a lot of upside, and if everything breaks correctly, they could very well end up being one of the best teams in the league, but they also carry a ton of inherent age and injury risk, which is why the projections come in understandably conservative. Either way, if nothing else, this team figures to be never boring.

As fans of the Dodgers, we’re always analyzing which pitchers have the best and worst pitches, but we normally base that on nothing but our own feelings at the moment, so I decided to take a more objective look at things.

For a pitch to qualify for these rankings, I used a 200-pitch minimum for starters and a 50-pitch minimum for relievers. The metric used to measure pitch effectiveness is True Average (TAv), which is basically like wOBA. League average performance is set at .260, and the metric doesn’t include baserunning.

Additionally, to prevent the post from being solely numbers-based, and one that would have been mind-numbingly boring, I decided to provide visual evidence as well.

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Worst Overall Pitches

Chad Billingsley – Cutter – .336 TAv

Josh Beckett – Fastball – .307 TAv

Aaron Harang – Sinker – .307 TAv

Ladies and gentlemen, welcome to the dumpster fire.

HOLY SHIT CHAD BILLINGSLEY STOP THROWING THAT PITCH

For the most part, he did abandon it in 2012, but apparently not enough. And honestly, it’s hard to tell when he was trying to throw a cutter or a slider because they both sucked and his separation between the pitches was inconsistent (protip: that is bad).

Also, there was a time when the fastballs of Josh Beckett and Aaron Harang (seriously, he posted 5 WAR seasons throwing it like 70% of the time) were feared. Not anymore.

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Worst Individual Pitches

Fastball

Josh Beckett – .307 TAv

*Visual Is Above*

Chris Capuano – .297
Joe Blanton – .268
Aaron Harang – .256
Clayton Kershaw – .253
Chad Billingsley – .241
Ted Lilly – .213

How far the mighty have fallen…

Sinker

Aaron Harang – .307 TAv

*Visual Is Above*

Joe Blanton – .295
Josh Beckett – .278
Chris Capuano – .272
Chad Billingsley – .232

To put this into perspective, by throwing it to a hitter, he basically turned everybody into Josh Hamilton.

Cutter

Chad Billingsley – .336 TAv

*Visual Is Above*

Josh Beckett – .282
Joe Blanton – .253

Curve

Chad Billingsley – .251 TAv

Aaron Harang – .240
Joe Blanton – .183
Josh Beckett – .183
Clayton Kershaw – .084

Slider

Chad Billingsley – .263 TAv

Joe Blanton – .250
Aaron Harang – .218
Clayton Kershaw – .213
Chris Capuano – .190

Stuff wise, I don’t actually think his off-speed pitches are bad. Location wise? Yeah, he hangs them a lot. A LOT.

Change

Joe Blanton – .264 TAv

Josh Beckett – .237
Chris Capuano – .211

It’s almost as if throwing a change with no movement or deception is a bad thing.

As fans of the Dodgers, we’re always analyzing which pitchers have the best and worst pitches, but we normally base that on nothing but our own feelings at the moment, so I decided to take a more objective look at things.

For a pitch to qualify for these rankings, I used a 200-pitch minimum for starters and a 50-pitch minimum for relievers. The metric used to measure pitch effectiveness is True Average (TAv), which is basically like wOBA. League average performance is set at .260, and the metric doesn’t include baserunning.

Additionally, to prevent the post from being solely numbers-based, and one that would have been mind-numbingly boring, I decided to provide visual evidence as well.

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Best Overall Pitches

Clayton Kershaw – Curve – .084 TAv

Josh Beckett – Curve – .183 TAv

Joe Blanton – Curve – .183 TAv

Am I surprised by the fact that the curve was the hardest pitch to do damage with? Yes and no. No, because it was bound to be an off-speed pitch, simply because fastballs are easier to command, thus they get thrown when a pitcher is behind in the count while the opposite is true for off-speed stuff. But yes, because I thought it would be the slider, which has basically become synonymous with swings and misses in recent times.

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Best Individual Pitches

Fastball

Ted Lilly – .213 TAv

Chad Billingsley – .241
Clayton Kershaw – .253
Aaron Harang – .256
Joe Blanton – .268
Chris Capuano – .297
Josh Beckett – .307

Is there a better example of the importance of pitch sequencing than this? Granted, it’s a small sample size because of his injury, but the fact that his fastball didn’t get blasted every single time he threw it is a testament to how he has to mix pitches to make his fastball seem harder to hit than it actually is.

Sinker

Chad Billingsley – .232 TAv

Chris Capuano – .272
Josh Beckett – .278
Joe Blanton – .295
Aaron Harang – .307

Annoyed by how I keep ranting on Twitter about how Chad Billingsley needs to throw his fastball more? Yeah, well he finally made the adjustment in 2012, but you should still get comfortable with hearing it, because he needs to continue to do that.

Cutter

Joe Blanton – .253 TAv

Josh Beckett – .282
Chad Billingsley – .336

Curve

Clayton Kershaw – .084 TAv

*Visual Is Above*

Josh Beckett – .183
Joe Blanton – .183
Aaron Harang – .240
Chad Billingsley – .251

Just stupid.

Slider

Chris Capuano – .190 TAv

Clayton Kershaw – .213
Aaron Harang – .218
Joe Blanton – .250
Chad Billingsley – .263

Change

Chris Capuano – .211 TAv

Josh Beckett – .237
Joe Blanton – .264

Chris Capuano is like the anti-Chad Billingsley. He has effective off-speed stuff, but oh boy does his fastball get blasted to high heaven. Really puts an exclamation mark on how he needs to get ahead in the count.

After expected rumors of the Dodgers and Hyun Jin Ryu’s agent Scott Boras being far apart, the two sides eventually agreed to a contract worth $36 million over a six-year span, according to Jon Heyman. As far as incentives go, Ryu can earn up to $1 million per year based on innings pitched and can increase his base salary (via Dylan Hernandez) if he does well in the Cy Young Award voting. Additionally, Tim Brown reports that if he throws 750 innings over his first five years, he can opt out of the deal. The Dodgers won the rights to negotiate with Ryu for $25.7 million via the posting system, and that money will now be sent to the Hanwha Eagles.

We’ve gone over this on the site previously, but reports on Ryu’s potential range from a middle of the rotation starter to a middle reliever, but most agree he has the talent to slot in around #3/#4 in a rotation. Granted, he hails from the KBO and has no MLB track record, so he’s riskier than those on the free-agent market, but given the current market and the Dodgers payroll, it seems to be an acceptable risk to take for an investment that totals a little over $10 million annually to lock up all of his prime years.

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As for the state of the rotation, this now means that, in addition to Ryu, the Dodgers have Clayton Kershaw, Zack Greinke, Chad Billingsley, Josh Beckett, Aaron Harang, Chris Capuano, and Ted Lilly in the stable. Furthermore, rumor has it that the team isn’t done yet and would still like to acquire another starter.

The acquisition of yet another starter would leave Ryu potentially questionable to enter the rotation right off the bat, especially if Billingsley is healthy and they can’t find trade partners for both Capuano and Harang. Still, that’s an awful good problem for the Dodgers to have, and given Billingsley’s questionable health, the stockpiling of starters is obviously by design as well. Regardless of where Ryu starts off the season though, he should slot into the back of the Dodgers rotation at some point if he’s as good as most expect him to be.

Clayton Kershaw

After Clayton Kershaw‘s 2011 performance, for which he won the Cy Young Award, I wasn’t sure I could be more impressed with him going forward. That’s not to say I was certain he had peaked, but it would no longer come as a surprise to me or anyone else. What impressed me so much about his 2012 season though, was the fact that he had another fantastic season while pitching through physical adversity.

Kershaw had to deal with plantar fasciitis throughout most, if not all of, the campaign, on top of a late-season hip injury that could have led to surgery, and an early-season illness that forced him to last just three innings in his 2012 debut.

After 2011 bests in FIP (2.28), SIERA (2.81), xFIP (2.84), BB/9 IP (2.08), and WAR (7.2), Clayton followed with excellent marks across that spectrum yet again, with a 2.53 FIP, 3.24 SIERA, 3.25 xFIP, 2.49 free passes per nine, and a 6.3 WAR. His strikeouts remained above one per inning (9.57/9 IP in 2011, 9.05 in 2012), and he backed up his 0.98 WHIP last season with a 1.02 mark this year.

Kid K has made his living missing bats and inducing weak contact, and he continued that trend in 2012, inducing a mess of infield popups (12.2 IFFB%) and increasing the amount of ground balls he generates for a fourth consecutive season (39.4%/40.1%/43.2%/46.9%).

In line for his second consecutive Cy, and fresh off of winning the Roberto Clemente Award, Clayton heads into 2013 on the last year of the two-year deal he signed to avoid arbitration. Slated to make just $11 million in ’13, the underpaid Clayton should have already received a long-term extension. Locking up the young stud southpaw should be the primary objective of Ned Colletti and his staff going forward.

Chad Billingsley

Entering 2012, Chad Billingsley was coming off of a pair of interesting and contrasting seasons: 2010 was his best season ever, while 2011 saw him take a step back. Always the lightning rod for Dodgers fans, especially with Jonathan Broxton away in Kansas City, Bills was at somewhat of a crossroads, as a good campaign would go a long way with the organization, while a sub-par one could have easily landed him elsewhere.

Always a Billingsley fan myself, I was very optimistic about his 2012 prospects, with one caveat:

Bills struggles resulted in a WAR cut in half from the previous year (2.1, down from 4.5) and questions about his mechanics and health. Still shy of his 28th birthday, Billingsley has every chance to rebound, and much like his poor second half of 2009 led to his best professional season, said rebound in 2012 would not be the least surprising to me. In fact, I’ll call it right now, as I fully expect Chad to be productive as Kershaw’s running mate next season, provided he is in fact healthy.

And unfortunately, that caveat became reality, as Chad suffered from an elbow injury that sent him to the DL twice, felled him permanently from August 24th on, and may require Tommy John surgery if plasma injections and rest don’t suffice as a rehab method.

Prior to being shut down, Chad started 25 games, and in just shy of 150 innings, had been excellent. A FIP of 3.34, SIERA of 3.83, and HR/9 of just 0.66 worked to produce a 2.5 WAR. On pace for another 3.5 WAR season, what was most impressive about the 2012 version of Billingsley was the fact that he had cut down significantly on his walks, trimming a 4.02 BB/9 mark down to 2.71.

While Bills isn’t the pitcher Kershaw is, we saw what cutting down on free passes did for Clayton, and it was working well for Chad too before his elbow got in the way of what was shaping up to be one of his best seasons. The Dodgers were able to lock him up prior to the 2011 season for a team-friendly three-year contract with a club option for 2015, and Chad will make $11 million this upcoming year whether or not he can throw a pitch.

A 2013 prediction for Chad really can’t be accurately made, as we have little idea whether the treatments he’s presently undergoing will ultimately allow him to pitch, though the most recent news is very promising. Tommy John surgery would wipe out his entire season, but if the treatments work and he’s able to suit up for the Dodgers next year, there’s ample reason to expect another solid year.

Chris Capuano

Chris Capuano was signed to a back-loaded two-year, $10 million deal with a 2014 mutual option, and while I wasn’t thrilled with the back-loaded nature of the deal, I was alright with him being brought on as a #4 starter. Granted, with the Dodgers #3 being Ted Lilly, they really had no #3 and a plethora of #4/#5 options, but with Cap there was at least some upside.

Coming off a bounce back 2011 season following injury issues, Capuano had a solid #3/#4 type season, whiffing 7.35/9 IP while issuing 2.45 BB/9. Like the two men to follow in this review, Chris struggled in limiting home runs, allowing over one per contest. Those walk and homer numbers were improvements over his 2011 season with the Mets, but he also struck out almost a batter less per nine than he did in his lone season in New York.

A look at his FIP, SIERA, and WAR don’t offer a clear picture beyond the aforementioned #3/#4 starter status, as he improved his FIP from 2011 (4.04/3.95), as well as his WAR (1.4/2.3), but saw a decently sharp increase in his SIERA (3.63/3.90). Cap allows a lot of hard contact (~20% LD career) and fly balls (~40% career), so pitching in a park like Dodger Stadium helps to mitigate the struggles associated with that.

Perhaps most interesting is Chris’ career pre- and post-ASG splits. In 2012, Capuano allowed a .232/.295/.374/.669 line to opponents pre-break, but that ballooned to .281/.317/.454/.770 following the mid-summer classic. Those numbers hold true for his career, as he’s always been more of a first-half pitcher (.257/.320/.414/.734 vs. .273/.331/.473/.804 with BABIP and K/BB marks that have remained steady).

He’ll enter 2013 as the #3 or #4 starter, and if he can up that strikeout rate a bit, he could be solid yet again.

Aaron Harang

Signed to a back-loaded two-year, $12 million deal with a mutual option for 2014 — a deal I was against at the time and still am upset with — Aaron Harang was exactly what he has been since Dusty Baker ruined his arm a few years back: an overpaid #4/#5 starter.

In 31 starts and just under 180 innings, Harang struck out a paltry 6.56 per nine while issuing an poor 4.26 free passes per nine. His shiny ERA may lead many to see his season as a success, but dig just a bit deeper and you find a 4.14 FIP, 4.87 SIERA, and just a 1.7 WAR.

Harang hasn’t exceeded 2.3 WAR since 2007, has not struck out more than seven per nine since 2009, and has seen his walk rate trend up in the last four seasons. That’s … uh … not good, and barring a trade, Harang will return and try to hold off age for another 30 or so starts.

Ted Lilly

Lilly only made eight starts in 2012, totaling under 50 innings, as the injury bug bit him hard in the form of a left shoulder ailment that would end up requiring arthroscopic surgery.

Prior to his injury, in an obviously small sample size, the veteran lefty posted a 3.92 FIP and 4.81 SIERA while seeing a sharp drop in his strikeout numbers from 2011 and his career rate (5.73 in ’12, 7.38 in ’11, 7.64 career).

Entering the final year of a back-loaded three-year-deal that will pay him $12 million in 2013, Lilly no longer has no-trade clause protection, but considering that he is coming off of an injury to his pitching shoulder and will be 37 for the duration of next season, there’s not much value to be had on the trade market anyway.

Lilly will reportedly be available for Spring Training barring any setback, and with a rotation already set, there’s a chance Lilly winds up in the pen to complement Scott Elbert and/or Paco Rodriguez, occupying a long-relief role and spot-starting when necessary.

Josh Beckett

Acquired in the massive deal with Boston, Josh Beckett arrived on the heels of an overblown but still bad 21 starts with the Red Sox in 2012. I say overblown because he was pitching like a #3 starter in 2012, but with all of the focus on his personality and the September collapse of 2011, you’d have thought he was pitching his way out of baseball entirely.

His results were terrible in Boston (5.23 ERA), but Beckett had posted a 4.26 FIP and 4.28 SIERA before the deal, while walking 2.7 per 9. Most concerning were his drop in strikeouts to roughly 6.5 per 9 after five straight seasons of over 8.0 per 9.

Upon his arrival, Beckett was solid and showed improvement, striking out almost 8.0 per 9 with a 3.82 FIP and 3.81 SIERA. While some might attribute that to the new manager and new clubhouse environment, it’s far more likely due to the weaker league and weaker division, offensively-speaking.

Beckett is under contract for another two seasons, each at $15.75 million, and slots in as the #2 or #3 starter heading into 2013. Going into his age-33 season, Beckett is no sure thing to transform back into the front of the rotation starter he once was, though that’s what the Dodgers will need out of him if they don’t go out and get an arm in the off-season.

Joe Blanton

Acquired from the Phillies for a PTNBL that eventually became pitcher Ryan O’Sullivan, Joe Blanton turned in a solid ten starts for the Blue Crew, posting a 3.74 FIP and 3.61 SIERA while whiffing 8.0 per 9 and walking 2.5 per 9.

Blanton’s strikeouts were a pleasant surprise, as his career mark sits just above 6.0 per 9, though he did struggle with the home run, as usual, allowing over one per game as a Dodger. Blanton’s overall season numbers are fifth-starter material, as he posted a 1.7 WAR, though his peripherals were good enough to be a #4.

After making $8.5 million each of the last two seasons, Blanton heads to free agency, and entering his age-32 season, he’ll certainly be looking for at least a two-year commitment from a team. The Dodgers will be after an arm or two, and there are worse options than him, but with the Dodgers flush in cash I doubt he’ll be a target.

Odds & Ends

Nate Eovaldi made 10 starts for the Dodgers prior to being dealt to Florida for Hanley Ramirez. In those ten starts, the 22-year-old righty struck out just 5.4/9 IP while walking 3.2/9 IP. He put up an FIP of 4.11 and a SIERA of 4.67.

While some are high on his stuff and potential as a #3 starter, I always saw him as a reliever due to his low strikeout numbers, and for the chance that Hanley hits again, it was a great trade in my book.

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Stephen Fife, acquired in the Trayvon Robinson deal that made no sense at the time, made just five spot-starts for the Dodgers in 2012. Everything I saw from the 26-year-old profiles as a bullpen arm who can spot-start here and there.

With an FIP of 4.14 and a SIERA of 4.67, I suppose he could be a fifth starter, but again, he seems to profile as a fungible relief arm with his lack of swing and miss stuff and the decrease in strikeouts as he’s advanced levels to face more competent hitting.

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Greg Zakwin is the founder of the site Plaschke Thy Sweater Is Argyle. Follow him on Twitter @ArgyledPlaschke.

I’ve already been wrong before about the Dodgers ownership and their willingness to spend. I figured they would be willing to open up the checkbook, but assumed they would stop short of the luxury tax, much like the Yankees have tried to do in recent years. Instead? They have blown that limit away and now project to enter 2013 with the highest payroll in MLB history.

As such, I understand when analysts and fans cite an unlimited payroll and assume the Dodgers could acquire anybody at any time. After all, who besides Steve Dilbeck legitimately thought the Adrian Gonzalez/Carl Crawford/Josh Beckett deal was remotely realistic, much less likely? Still, what I find disturbing is this new rhetoric going around where the Dodgers have so much money to blow that payroll efficiency and management has now been rendered unnecessary.

Not only are they assuming that the Dodgers have an unlimited payroll, which is a significant assumption in itself, but also that the lack of payroll restrictions will exist for an indefinite amount of time far into the future.

If that were true though, then why not seriously go out and sign Zack Greinke, Hiroki Kuroda, Anibal Sanchez, Josh Hamilton, Michael Bourn, and Mike Napoli?

“Oh you’re just being facetious.”

No, I’m being dead serious. If there literally was no limit to the wealth, then why not? All of the mentioned players would help upgrade the current roster, would they not? So if money isn’t an object, just designate players to clear room and sign them all. Then offer Andre Ethier, Yasiel Puig, and Zach Lee plus their entire contracts to the Mets for David Wright and then re-sign him for 10 years.

The reason why you’re probably saying that I’m nuts right now is because you know in reality that the payroll isn’t actually unlimited, we just haven’t seen what it is yet. As such, I stick with my assumption that there is a cap in mind and that it still needs to be managed on some level. The higher payroll provides the advantage of being able to fill holes with elite players in case the farm system is bereft of them, as the team is able to absorb the risk that other teams cannot. However, while overpays are to be expected in certain cases, what exactly is the point of overpaying average players?

Like on the Brandon League deal I see a lot of people going with the logic of “yeah, he’s not worth that much, but the payroll is unlimited anyway”. Well where would be your limit? I fail to understand where people would draw the line in these cases. Why not five years and $40 million? What difference does it make under the unlimited payroll logic? Five years and $75 million? There’s no end to it, really.

The rationale just doesn’t make sense to me. It’s the same train of thought as “well he’s better than James Loney” or “well he’s better than Juan Uribe”.

GREAT.

It’s a $200 million team, at what point does that stop being an excuse?

Now I understand that the instinct is to be optimistic, especially coming off the Frank McCourt ownership. I get it, perhaps more than most do, but I also feel that because there’s been no consequences for the team’s actions as of yet, people are getting way too deep into the forest made out of money to see the trees. It’s as if reality has been temporarily suspended and we all moved to this fairy tale land where spending money inefficiently has no consequences. And here I am, with my hand meekly raised, simply inquiring when that has EVER been true in baseball.

Then again, that’s just the conservative approach to things, and the Dodgers have blown past my assumptions before.

The Dodgers are currently two games back of the Cardinals for the National League‘s final playoff spot. Los Angeles has a 8.2% (+3.8% since yesterday) chance of making the playoffs according to Cool Standings and a 8.1% (+4.1% since yesterday) chance according to Baseball Prospectus.

Joe Blanton shutdown the Rockies yesterday for the win, and Kurt Suzuki played hero for the Nationals as they won in extras.

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For today’s game, the Dodgers send Josh Beckett to the mound against Jorge De La Rosa, and they’re -235 betting favorites to win (70.1%). Additionally, AccuScore has the Dodgers winning at a 60% clip. The Cardinals send Lance Lynn to the hill against Ross Detwiler and are -135 betting favorites to win (57.4%), and AccuScore has their chances of prevailing at 50%.

If the Dodgers can get a result today, it sets up an epic showdown to end the season against the rival Giants, for better or worse.

The Dodgers were sailing along to an easy 6-0 victory today when a funny thing happened on the way to Josh Beckett‘s complete game shutout. Mike Morse led off the bottom of the eighth with a homer, and two batters later, Steve Lombardozzi cut the lead by two more. By the end of the inning, it was Morse again hurting the Dodgers, dribbling a seeing-eye single past Mark Ellis to knot the score at 6-6.

Fortunately, Matt Kemp wasn’t having any of it, as he led off the top of the ninth with a homer, thus creating the perfect middle finger win expectancy chart for today’s game.

Of course, none of that would have been possible without this odd call in the top of the fourth inning, where Kemp was ruled to have scored before Ryan Zimmerman tagged Adrian Gonzalez (“on his taint”, as observed by Seth Amity).

The blown call deciding the game was pretty sweet actually, because why not have a hilariously bad blown call decide such a terribleawesome game, right?

Right.

Chad Billingsley is back on the 15-day DL for the second time this season, and once again it’s due to right elbow soreness. Bills had an MRI that revealed inflammation and will have further tests once the inflammation has subsided.

Chad left his last start early after feeling something in the elbow on a pitch. He had been on quite the run since returning from his first elbow injury, and will be replaced in the rotation by newly-acquired Josh Beckett.

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Shane Victorino was scratched from Saturday’s game due to tightness in his back. Dylan Hernandez reports there may be some hip tightness as well, though the club only reported the back issue. Shane returned to the starting lineup on Sunday.

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Ted Lilly, rehabbing with the Rancho Cucamonga Quakes, felt “something … in his back or something”, according to Don Mattingly, and will have his next scheduled start skipped.

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Yasiel Puig, the Dodgers highly-paid Cuban import, was out of the lineup for a few games due to a bruised right heel, according to the Quakes official Twitter page. He returned to bang out four hits on Sunday though, so he should be fine.

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Matt Guerrier continues rehabbing in Rancho.

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Jerry Hairston Jr. is done for the season, as he’s scheduled to undergo surgery on his ailing left hip.

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Blake Hawksworth had arthroscopic shoulder surgery and is done for the year.

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Within the last two weeks, Chris Withrow, Chris Reed, Matt Wallach, and Angelo Ponte have all spent time on the 7-day DL, while Kazuya Takano was placed on the 60-day DL.

Mike Scioscia’s Tragic Illness: Even though he’s away from home right now, I think Mike Petriello comes away from the trade with the right approach.

So how am I feeling about it today? I think Gonzalez is going to be an incredible fit in LA, especially considering that reports of his demise in Boston seem overblown (he was outstanding last year and has been very good for much of this year after a slow start) and that he never seemed to want to leave Southern California in the first place. It’s a high price to pay, but if he is what we think he is – and don’t forget, there was little available in the first base market next year, so if you’re spending money, this is how you do it – and the team becomes a consistent contender, I think it’ll be a price we can live with.

And if not? The next decade could get ugly, fast. For now, I’m cautiously optimistic, but mainly excited for the rest of the season.

I’m the same. Hopeful, but wary for reasons that I believe are legitimate. Far too many Dodgers fans pretending this is highway robbery in our favor, in my opinion.

Dodger Thoughts: Jon Weisman invokes Pedro Martinez for Delino DeShields.

The chances of De La Rosa becoming one of the greatest pitchers of all time might be slim, but De La Rosa doesn’t have to become the second Pedro to represent a major loss for the Dodgers. He could just be really good, while Gonzalez apes DeShields’ decline.

Like I said, I’m hungry for a World Series title, and I’m not saying the risk of trading De La Rosa won’t be worth it. Don’t misunderstand me: The Dodgers need a player like Gonzalez, who boosts them at their weakest position. I even believe that a move back to his Southern California roots and away from the Red Sox maelstrom could revitalize him.

All I’m saying is, short of Clayton Kershaw, the trade of any other pitcher besides De La Rosa would have left me more comfortable.

Not sure I agree with the people flipping out on him, especially if the Dodgers can’t upgrade their rotation significantly in the coming years. However, I think Adrian Gonzalez is a far better player and Rubby De La Rosa, while one of my favorites, won’t get to ace level.

Sports Illustrated: Jay Jaffe acknowledges the risk and the reward, saying that if nothing else it makes the season compelling.

All in all, it’s a dizzying deal that could affect not only the outcome of this year’s NL playoff races, but also could turn the Dodgers into the NL West’s powerhouse for years to come, with an enviable middle of the order starring Kemp, Gonzalez, Ramirez and Ethier. Or it could blow up in the team’s collective face, saddling the Dodgers with unproductive players signed to long-term deals, and hampering their roster flexibility much as it did these Red Sox.

Given their surrender of two top young arms, and the massive savings — and saving face — that the deal offered Boston, the Dodgers should have come away with far more than $12 million in salary discounts. That they didn’t puts virtually all of the risk on them, but it makes for a compellingly aggressive play in a playoff race that remains wide open.

True Blue LA: Eric Stephen notes that the team is headed for the luxury tax.

Dodgers Now: Stan Kasten says they aren’t maxed out yet though.

If the Dodgers can add $260 million to their payroll in one trade — and close to a half-billion dollars in four months — is there a limit to their spending?

“Somewhere, I suppose,” Chairman Mark Walter said Saturday.

And where might that limit be?

“I haven’t found it yet,” President Stan Kasten said. “I’ll let you know when we get there.”

Not sure how much of that is rhetoric, but I think we’ll see in the 2013 off-season.

FanGraphs: Dave Cameron thinks it doesn’t make sense from a baseball perspective but that it might make sense if the Dodgers make a deep run into the playoffs due to financials.

From a purely baseball standpoint, this investment doesn’t make sense. Gonzalez isn’t valuable enough to make him worth taking on the albatross contracts of Crawford and Beckett, and the Dodgers almost certainly could have gotten a better bang for their buck in free agency this winter. However, making moves this winter won’t get people interested in the Dodgers in the same way that a deep playoff run this year will.

I’m getting a lot of similar comments on Twitter, so I know this isn’t a rare opinion, but I have to wonder how legitimate the train of thought is. Dodgers fans show up regardless of how the team is doing, and the only reason attendance plummeted last year was because of a fan boycott of Frank McCourt. Even with all the turmoil, they were sixth in attendance last year, and this year they’re already back up to third. As such, I don’t buy the argument that they needed to do this during the season to make the playoffs otherwise fans wouldn’t come back and they wouldn’t make money. If the tens of millions from potential playoff revenue is going to make or break a team with billions of dollars looming, then there are bigger problems here.

Also, I don’t buy that this is to create buzz for a media deal. We’re all speculating, but logically I don’t see why cable companies, who negotiate deals like this all the time, would be swayed off their valuation due to a small sample size and not take into account the big 15-to-25 year picture. It’s already rumored to be in the $8 billion range, so how much higher could it go? Maybe they are that dumb, I dunno, but it seems iffy to assume so.

There’s no getting around the fact that the Dodgers likely just paid $20 for a gallon of milk. Given the prices everyone else is paying for milk, that seems pretty silly. If you happen to have lots of $20 bills and no milk, however, and there’s only one guy selling milk in your immediate vicinity, maybe you just complain about price gouging and hand over the $20. Depending on just how many $20s the Dodgers ownership has, this might not end up being quite as nuts as it looks on the surface.

Or, maybe I’m just over-thinking all of this, and the Dodgers just made a horrible, horrible trade. I’m honestly not sure.

Maybe, but I can’t see this trade destroying the team down the road. It might make for an inferior roster, but as long as they continue to spend, the team will be competitive. I’d just rather have to go through as little big money decline phases as possible.

ESPN: Buster Olney names his winners and losers … with the Dodgers on both.

Winners: The Dodgers of 2012

They are markedly better today than they were before this deal. Adrian Gonzalez is perfect for their lineup, their lineup balance, their defense and their ballpark, and he knows the division from his many years with the Padres. Beckett might be energized, and he gets to shift out of one of the best-hitting divisions to one of the worst.

Winners: Magic Johnson, Stan Kasten and the rest of the Dodgers’ ownership group

In less than four months, these owners have managed to completely rebrand the franchise, and, even if the Dodgers don’t make the playoffs this year, they’ve set themselves up for a major bounce forward in attendance and interest and team success in 2013. The city might throw them a parade even if they don’t win the World Series because, ding-dong, the Frank McCourt era is over.

Losers: The Dodgers of 2017

The team’s stunning spending spree feels good today, but Los Angeles has set itself up to have a roster loaded with aging stars in about five years — Matt Kemp, Gonzalez, Crawford and Andre Ethier all have contracts that run through that season. By then, the Dodgers’ farm system should be replenished, and the club’s ownership should have the resources to pave over that type of problem in the way the Yankees have — and, in any event, Dodgers fans won’t have to worry about that for a while.

ESPN: Keith Law takes a good now and bad later approach as well.

This deal could end up looking good for both sides, better for the Dodgers in the very short term but much better for the Red Sox in the long term. Boston enters this winter with a new financial lease on life, freeing the Sox up to spend in a weak free-agent market or perhaps to take on a large contract someone else would like to move (Cliff Lee? Justin Upton?).

They’re also looking at a pretty interesting group of position-player prospects racing up the system, led by Xander Bogaerts, who has improved his defense at shortstop this year and might defy earlier expectations and stay at the position. That potential for an inexpensive core should help Boston avoid a similar tangle of large contracts in the near future, just at a point when the Dodgers are facing a financial quagmire and roster crunch of their own.

Baseball executives are chiming in on the trade, basically questioning what the Dodgers are doing.

Rival exec on #Dodgers: “If you had $250M to spend, is this how you’d do it?”

— Ken Rosenthal (@Ken_Rosenthal) August 25, 2012

Rival execs are wondering why LADs didn’t simply say to BOS: We’ll take your bad contracts, but we’re not giving you any prospects of note.

— Buster Olney (@Buster_ESPN) August 25, 2012

NL exec view:”The Dodgers so wanted Gonzalez they took Crawford and Beckett’s money and traded two great arms to get him.”

— Peter Gammons (@pgammo) August 25, 2012

While I don’t necessarily disagree with their assessment, one has to wonder how much of this is legit and how much of this is just being jealous.

The Dodgers finalized a trade today that will send Rubby De La Rosa, Allen Webster, Jerry Sands, James Loney, and Ivan De Jesus to the Red Sox for Adrian Gonzalez, Carl Crawford, Josh Beckett, Nick Punto, and Cash.

I gave my initial reaction to the deal yesterday, but after an in-depth analysis, did anything change?

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Adrian Gonzalez

The Dodgers are paying ~$130 million for six years and a month of his services. Accounting for inflation over the course of the contract, every win will come out to ~$5 million, so the Dodgers are paying for about 26 WAR or 4.2 WAR per year.

Will he be worth it? I’m quite confident he will be, despite issues that others have concerns about.

In 2011 with the Red Sox, he hit .338/.410/.548/.957, posting a ~6.5 WAR season. He got off to a slow start in 2012, however, and thus only has a .300/.343/.469/.812 line. However, he has come on of late, and he projects to finish the year on a .301/.369/.504/.873 tear, so I don’t think he’s at the start of a precipitous decline. The primary concern is that his career 10.7 BB% has dipped to 5.9%, and it will need to rebound for him to live up to his usual standard. With that said, his batting projection puts his OPS around .860 or so, which presumes a gain in walk rate.

His fielding has never been in doubt, as he is a plus defender across all advanced metrics and I don’t think anybody would argue with it. He does lack foot speed though, which is why his baserunning total comes in low.

That’s not to say there’s minimal risk though, which makes sense, since he wouldn’t have been let go otherwise. He’s in his age-30 season right now, and aging curves tell us that he’s likely to regress over the course of his contract, as the mid-30s are generally the danger area. On the upside, I don’t see a reason to be concerned about injuries, as he has never played in less than 156 games in a full season.

Factoring everything above, A-Gon comes out to about a 5 WAR player, and he figures to be worth around 27 WAR after accounting for age regression. While he won’t be providing much surplus value beyond what he’s being paid by the Dodgers, he should be well worth the acquisition, especially considering the barren first base market and the lack of internal options. The A-Gon part of this deal is cause of excitement.

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Carl Crawford

The Dodgers are paying ~$105 million for five years and a month of his services. Accounting for inflation over the course of the contract, every win will come out to ~$5 million, so the Dodgers are paying for about 21 WAR or 4.1 WAR per year.

Unlike A-Gon, where I have trouble seeing how he’s not worth it, I have trouble seeing how Crawford will even get anywhere close to worth it.

For the past two seasons, Crawford has been … uh … a mess. He’s been worth a total of around 0.5 WAR, which needless to say doesn’t bode well for his 4.1 WAR goal. Even if you completely believe that his skills are intact, his body throws a sizable wrench into the equation to say the least, and it doesn’t help then that he may miss a few months of next season. He was projected to post a .283/.323/.446/.769 line for the rest of 2012, which is quite generous since his actual line has been .260/.292/.419/.711 for 2011 and 2012. For the projection, I put him around a .780 OPS, which is almost what he posted in his last few years with the Rays.

On the basepaths, despite his basestealing ability, he’s never been a plus baserunner, but he does clock in on the positive side of the ledger due to his speed. His defense will probably generate the biggest debate, as it was once a plus tool, but it has since regressed to average at best across the advanced metrics due to injury or whatever else. Personally though, I think he should benefit from the bigger spaces in Dodger Stadium, so he should return to form. However, it would be dishonest to just grant him plus status after two clear years of regression, so I made him just good instead of elite.

Like Gonzalez, Crawford is in his age-30 season and will regress over the course of his contract, including the dreaded mid-30s. Unlike Gonzalez, there’s ample reason to worry about Crawford’s health, and his projected playing time reflects that, clocking in at ~550 plate appearances.

Factoring everything above, Crawford comes out to about a 2.9 WAR player, and he figures to be worth around 12 WAR after accounting for age regression.

So he should be worth a bit more than half his contract, and when that contract totals in excess of $100 million that burns quite a bit. Unlike at first base, the options in the outfield, either short-term or long-term, to get better value were plentiful. Therefore, I can’t see how anybody would be excited about taking him on. The “he’s better than Juan Rivera” argument only works for this year because the Dodgers would have options in the offseason, and since Crawford won’t be playing this year there’s really no defense for this. I’m assuming a lot in his favor as it is, and if he’s right he should be a decent player for the team until late in the deal, but he certainly won’t be worth what the Dodgers are paying him unless lighting strikes.

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Josh Beckett

The Dodgers are paying ~$35 million for two years and a month of his services. Accounting for inflation over the course of the contract, every win will come out to ~$4.75 million, so the Dodgers are paying for about 7.5 WAR or 3.5 WAR per year.

I’m actually more confident that Crawford will make meaningful contributions than Beckett for reasons that go beyond statistics, so needless to say, I’m skeptical about him earning his keep.

In 2012, Beckett has a 5.23 ERA, 4.27 FIP, 4.39 xFIP, and 4.28 SIERA. That’s about the profile of Bud Norris of the Astros at the moment … if Norris was set to make $16 million annually.

The reason I only mention 2012 is this report by Kevin Goldstein of Baseball Prospectus:

Goldstein says that Beckett’s 70 fastball has turned into a 55/60. His once-biting curve has lost a similar amount of stuff: Goldstein reports that he would be “leery” of putting a 60 rating on it and might call it a 50-plus. His cutter, he explains, is at best a 40. Given how often he throws it, the cutter could be something of an Achilles’ heel for Beckett going forward.

Goldstein is not terribly optimistic about Beckett’s performance going forward and grades him as a no. 4 or no. 5 starter going forward.

That scouting report is backed by fastball velocity that has dropped from 93.8 MPH for his career to 91.6 MPH, and a strikeout rate that has gone from a career 22.2% to 17.2%. I’m not sure how anybody could reasonably expect him to bounce back to 4-5 WAR levels with that profile.

Like Gonzalez and Crawford, Beckett isn’t young. He’s in his age-32 season, is showing signs of decline, and is under contract into his mid-30s. There’s reason to worry about injury too, as he missed significant time (60-day DL) two years ago with a back strain and was placed on the DL for shoulder inflammation this year. Since he’ll likely only get to ~160 innings this year, I think giving him ~175 is generous enough.

Factoring everything above, Beckett comes out to about a 2.1 WAR player, and he figures to be worth around 4 WAR after accounting for age regression.

Like Crawford, he projects to be worth a bit more than half what he’s being paid, but it burns a lot less because it’s only a two year commitment after 2012. Of course, there’s opportunity cost here as well, because there’s always bargain options that can provide 1.5 to 2.5 WAR for a lot less than what Beckett will be paid, as Chris Capuano and the likes have proven. I suppose there’s upside hidden deep in Beckett’s profile in that maybe he regains his stuff, but I can’t bet on it due to his age. Besides, both his numbers and the scouting match each other, and that’s usually a recipe for accuracy. Hope for the best, but I wouldn’t expect anything better than a #4 starter.

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Nick Punto

The Dodgers are paying ~$2 million for one year and a month of his services. Accounting for inflation over the course of the contract, every win will come out to ~$4.5 million, so the Dodgers are paying for about 0.5 WAR or 0.4 WAR per year.

Don’t think I need a table for this one, as it’s purely to give the Dodgers a utility guy, I believe. Punto is at .200/.301/.272/.573 for 2012 and is projected to hit .229/.327/.271/.598 the rest of the way, which matches his age profile and career hitting ability. He’s above average on the bases and can play second, third, and short, where he grades out as a plus defender at every position.

His value on the bench is contingent on the Dodgers finding guys that can hit because he’s purely a defensive replacement or a spot starter. Still, he’s a solid utility guy because of his defense and versatility. He’ll be serviceable, which is all he’s being paid for, so it should be fine.

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Rubby De La Rosa

As a starter last year, he posted a 3.71 ERA/3.87 FIP/3.55 xFIP/3.85 SIERA with a 23.6 K% and a 12.2 BB% before succumbing to Tommy John surgery. After rehabbing for a year, he’s back and so is the velocity, so it seems the only thing lost was a year of development. Regardless, he has plus velocity and two potential swing-and-miss off-speed pitches in the change and slider. He’s rotation quality right now, and with command improvement, I don’t see why he couldn’t be a #2 or #3 rotation option.

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Allen Webster

After being demoted to the bullpen early in 2012, he may now be every bit the prospect that Rubby or Zach Lee is for the reasons Kevin Goldstein of Baseball Prospectus details here:

“It’s all there,” said a National League scout who was taken off his coverage to see the team. “When everything is going, he has three average-to-plus pitches and knows what to do with them.” The scout noted that Webster’s game has matured, as well. “He knows he has a really good—and potentially special—changeup, but he’s not over-relying on it anymore,” the scout explained. “It’s like he finally figured out that setting that pitch up with 92-94 mph heat is the best way to go about it, and his curveball has improved as well. He used to get over the ball and it wouldn’t finish, but now it’s breaking through the zone much better.”

His ceiling seems to be in the #2 range as well, with #3 to #4 a more likely destination. He should test the waters at the MLB level this year, and could be ready in 2013.

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Jerry Sands

For his career, his line at AAA Albuquerque is .291/.363/.557/.921 … but it’s Albuquerque. Still, I like his chances of becoming a major league contributor, though I’m not sure he’ll be worthy of holding down a left field spot for a team like the Red Sox. There’s a shot he becomes a regular, but I see him as more of a platoon guy or temporary starter as opposed to a long-term fit there.

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Ivan De Jesus

A .301/.354/.416/.770 line at Albuquerque paired with his .231/.282/.277/.559 career line with the Dodgers doesn’t bode well for him. Furthermore, while he can play second, short, and third, he’s only above average at second, so I’m not sure he even fits as a utility guy.

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James Loney

He’s been worth 0 to -1 WAR this season while making $6.5 million and he’s a free agent to be. Bye.

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So the Dodgers are paying ~$272 million to get the four mentioned players from the Red Sox, and the Red Sox will be kicking in about ~$12 million back to the Dodgers. So the team is paying for ~55 WAR of production, but is getting about ~43 WAR in value (~$212 million). As such, just by taking on the contracts alone, they figure to be looking at a surplus value around -$50 million. Then factor in the two top prospects, one solid prospect, a fringe prospect, and the corpse of James Loney, and you’re looking at quite a deficit to overcome, especially if any of them develop and hit their ceilings.

On the other hand, this undoubtedly makes the Dodgers better in the short-term, perhaps by as much as 7 or 8 wins in 2013. It should solidify the squad as a playoff favorite for this year and the next two years, perhaps even longer than that, depending on the decline phases of Crawford/Gonzalez.

While I understand that fans are excited by the prospects of that immediate improvement, I just have to wonder whether the Dodgers couldn’t do better if given ~$260 million to spend and the prospect package in question. Of the players received, only Adrian Gonzalez really fills a hole that couldn’t have been addressed in either 2013 or 2014. Then there’s the potential problems with payroll flexibility and the luxury tax that I’ve mentioned before. Also, as you can see through Jay Jaffe‘s work here, they’re really hemmed up in the short-term payroll-wise, and they now have $90 million sewn up in four players through 2017, which unfortunately doesn’t even include Clayton Kershaw yet.

As such, fans should surely enjoy the ride this year and in the immediate future, but it’s easy to justify significant concern over the long-term future of the roster, as all the risk in this deal is being taken by the Dodgers.

The Dodgers have acquired Adrian Gonzalez, Josh Beckett, Carl Crawford, Nick Punto, and Cash from the Red Sox for Rubby De La Rosa, Allen Webster, Jerry Sands, James Loney, and Ivan De Jesus, according to Jon Paul Morosi of Fox Sports.

Source confirms @gordonedes report: #Dodgers “close” to obtaining Adrian Gonzalez, Josh Beckett, Carl Crawford, Nick Punto. @mlbonfox

— Jon Morosi (@jonmorosi) August 24, 2012

Source: #Dodgers have agreed to send Allen Webster, James Loney, Jerry Sands, Ivan De Jesus, and Rubby De La Rosa to #RedSox. @mlbonfox

— Jon Morosi (@jonmorosi) August 24, 2012

Source: If #Dodgers – #RedSox blockbuster occurs — and it is “close” — Boston would send some cash to LA. @mlbonfox

— Jon Morosi (@jonmorosi) August 24, 2012

I’ll have a more detailed update on this trade later on tomorrow, but as of right now, I’m floored, honestly.

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My first impression though is to say that the trade isn’t for the better of the Dodgers overall. Yes, it makes them a better team immediately, but they likely now have limited financial flexibility for years to come. Ironically, that’s the reason the Red Sox did this deal to begin with.

Before calling me an idiot and asking me what the significance of that payroll worry is because the Dodgers now have money, maybe read this first on the Dodgers payroll and the luxury tax.

Additionally, the Dodgers are sending two top prospects to the Red Sox, both of which could contribute soon, in Rubby and Webster. Sands is certainly not a regular at this point, but he’s ready to try now, and he could develop into one. De Jesus could be a decent utility guy and Loney is whatever.

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The contract obligations the Dodgers are assuming total in excess of $250 million AFTER this year is over, and the team is giving up two of their best prospects and another solid one, so unless the cash coming back is significant, then this probably leaves the team better off in the short-term but worse off in the long-term.

Surely this drastically makes the team better now, but it also sets the Dodgers up to have an old, injury prone, and expensive roster going forward. I sure hope the Dodgers win now, because if they don’t, it could get ugly in a hurry.