Grantland: Jonah Keri on the riches of the Dodgers and the curse that comes along with it.

That, in a nutshell, is The Curse of Plenty. The Dodgers have more money to spend than anyone, without enough top players to go after. They’ve clogged their roster with merely decent talent at multiple positions because their general manager is impulsive and overeager to spend that money without properly gauging the market for the few elite talents out there. One great way to find those top players is to develop them yourself, but the Dodgers have shipped away several strong prospects to make reactionary trades, such as the Gonzalez deal.

This is still likely to be a good team, one that’s in the hunt for a playoff spot. But because of a few shortsighted moves and a market that can’t provide the great players they crave, the Dodgers may well find themselves back in familiar territory next fall: looking up at the Giants, and wondering where it all went wrong.

Been saying for a while now that all the hype and excitement is nice, but when it comes down to game time, the 2013 Dodgers are no lock, just like the 2012 Dodgers weren’t a lock after all the trades.

Did they get better? Yes, absolutely. However, even on paper, it’s nowhere near the best team in baseball, and it’s certainly no certainty to even win the division. That’s just the reality of the current team.

Now this situation is absolutely preferable to the previous situation, but optimism shouldn’t breed delusion.

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Feelin’ Kinda Blue: Dustin Nosler points out that for all the improvements in the off-season, the Dodgers bench is still mediocre.

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True Blue LA: Looking at A.J. Ellis and arbitration. He seems to be looking at around $3 million. A deserved raise.

True Blue LA: Analyzing Ronald Belisario and arbitration. He seems to be looking at a range between $1 million and $1.5 million. That is, of course, assuming the Dodgers think he can make it back into America. Who knows what his status is since he recently got kicked off his Winter League team in Venezuela.

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Baseball Prospectus: Do you scoff at all those horrid FOX “scouting reports” for pitchers? Of course you do. Well, Sam Miller has got you covered.

Grantland: Part 1 of Jonah Keri ranking the 50 best players in terms of trade value. No Dodgers here yet, but Carlos Santana finds a spot at #43.

The other two catcher rankings are the ones likely to elicit the most hate mail. In the first draft of this list, I had Santana considerably higher. Twenty-six-year-old switch-hitting catcher, career .806 OPS, signed for peanuts at four years, $18 million with an affordable $12 million option that would keep him in-house through 2017. By any objective standard, that would seem to make him a monumental bargain. Except the Lords of the Realm might not agree. There are the obvious concerns, such as Santana’s subpar defense, which (along with a semi-platoon designed to get him more at-bats) contributed to his playing 66 games at first base in 2011, with 21 at first and 27 at DH in 2012. Then there’s baseball’s continuing bias against low-average, high-walk hitters, even when we thought that was all behind us. The early buzz around Nick Swisher suggests he’ll be disappointed in his free-agent haul, while the cash-stuffed Rangers thought so little of Mike Napoli’s three-true-outcomes offense that they didn’t even make him a qualifying offer this offseason, meaning they think a one-year deal for a shade over $13 million is an overpay. If the Jered Weaver ranking constitutes ignoring the herd, consider the Santana ranking a case of acknowledging it.

Given how he’s perceived publicly, quite frankly I was surprised he made it onto the list at all.

Grantland: Part 2 of Jonah Keri ranking the 50 best players in terms of trade value. Matt Kemp checks in at #22.

Tulo and Kemp are franchise players…

OK, there are theoretically some scenarios that could see one of these guys traded:

C. The Dodgers decide they don’t feel like running $250 million payrolls anymore and stage an everything-must-go sale.

That’s about it, really.

Clayton Kershaw comes in at #13.

Practically speaking, there’s no way that Kershaw or Verlander will get traded, not even with both two years away from free agency. The Dodgers have shown they’ll throw ungodly amounts of money at slightly above-average players, let alone all-world pitchers, so Kershaw’s staying.

Yeah, at this point, it’s just a matter of whether or not he’ll get the richest contract for a pitcher in MLB history.

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FanGraphs: Speaking of money … Wendy Thurm takes a look at every television rights contract in the MLB.

I … uh … can see why some teams might be a bit upset.

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FanGraphs: As the power game has decreased, the running game has become more important. Seems to make complete sense, not be counter-intuitive.

The relationship is clear: the league took a year to catch up, but as run production goes down, stolen bases go up (For the record, the coefficient of determination between OPS and SBA/SBO is 0.78.).

It might seem counter-intuitive — the more run scoring drops, the more we hear about the sanctity of the out. Each of the 27 is hugely valuable, yes, but as run scoring drops each plate appearance is also more likely to produce an out.

The league on-base percentage has fallen from .336 in 2007 to .319 in 2012, and therefore the marginal out — the out risked by the stolen base — is less valuable. That’s why the “runCS” value in the Guts section — the cost in runs of a caught stealing — has lessened from minus-.433 in 2007 to minus-.398 in 2012.

Put another way, the stolen base becomes a less risky proposition because there is less to lose. The hitter at the plate is now less likely to get on base or hit a run-scoring extra base hit, and the chances of two hitters singling in an inning to knock a runner home drops in a compound fashion. Conversely, making the hitter’s job easier becomes more valuable now that the “wait for a three-run homer” strategy isn’t as viable.

The break-even rate on steals has fallen from 68 percent to 66 percent, down from 70 percent at the height of the steroids era in 2000. A player that stole 75 bases and was caught 25 times would have gained 4.2 runs of value in 2007. In 2012, that number rises to 5.1, and the player likely would have been running 10-20 percent more often; a routinely successful basestealer’s value in the running game therefore increases by some 30-40 percent.

It’s a great article, primarily because it shows that the break-even point for stealing success has fallen all the way down to 66%. Best to remember that during the season.

Wouldn’t it be nice if Dee Gordon could get on base enough to use his speed in this new environment?

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Yahoo! Sports: Jeff Passan has the story about how the MLB wants to ditch the posting system.

Major League Baseball and Nippon Professional Baseball are discussing significant changes to the posting system that brings players from Japan to the major leagues, sources told Yahoo! Sports.

While the talks haven’t moved beyond cursory stages, MLB is pushing NPB for a system in which teams no longer would bid blindly for the right to negotiate with a player but rather would participate in a traditional, open auction, the sources said.

Such a format likely would lessen the amount of money funneled toward the Japanese team that posts the player. In the cases of Yu Darvish and Daisuke Matsuzaka, their NPB teams received more than a $50 million windfall, a huge boon for a league with manifold financial struggles.

MLB and the players’ union agree they’d prefer to see a larger percentage of the money spent on high-end imports go to the player, the sources said.

Here … we … go.

Why the dramatics? Because this could be the start of a conflict between the leagues, as the NPB were the ones who wanted to change their rules in regards to their high school players going to the MLB in the aftermath of Shohei Otani‘s announcement. But now the MLB is requesting that they concede to them on posting fees. They are different issues, but they’re going to butt heads at some point in the near future it seems.

The posting fees are the far more significant deal though, IMO. Last I checked, and I admittedly don’t check regularly, I think only the Yomiuri Giants and a couple other teams in the NPB operate in the black. Everybody else is in the red for one reason or another, so these gigantic fees they get by selling off their elite players to the MLB helps the team — and the company that owns them — immensely. As such, I can’t see them going down without a fight.

Maybe there’s a happy medium here though, where a reasonable auction-type situation gets implemented with the NPB team getting to set a reserve price, and where the MLB concedes a bit of ground to the NPB on the signing of Japan’s amateur players so that Japanese fans get to watch their best young talent for at least half a decade or so.

Either way, it seems that something is going to change in regards to the relationship between the two leagues, and it’ll probably happen sooner rather than later.

Way to go, ESPN.

Minor League Ball: Three Los Angeles Dodgers prospects make Minor League Ball‘s 2012 Top 120 Prospects. Unsurprisingly, they are Zach Lee (75), Allen Webster (106), and Nate Eovaldi (87).

ESPN The Magazine: Molly Knight on Dodgers trainer Stan Conte, who wants to banish injuries forever.

Grantland: Jonah Keri on Jose Abreu, the best hitter you’ve never heard of.

ESPN: From Jonah Keri‘s book on the Tampa Bay Rays, “The Extra 2%“, which I should probably get around to reading.

Jennings said he and the other scouts in attendance — all except Arango — remained concerned about the kid’s thick build. They also focused on the negatives rather than the positives as Arango and Jennings both fell into a bit of confirmation bias. Jennings didn’t like the player going down on one knee more than once to field grounders at short. He was also concerned about the player’s performance at catcher: messy footwork and iffy throwing mechanics, despite a few good throws. At bat, he worried about the player’s approach more than the results. “He’s sitting very deep on his back leg, uppercut swing, back shoulder dipping pretty good,” Jennings said.

It’s an excerpt that’s both funny and sad at the same time, but I do like the insight it gives into the decision making process.

Also, Fernando Arango is far more mature than me. I’d be sending a postcard to Chuck LaMar and Vince Naimoli every year with Albert Pujols and me smiling widely.

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MLB Trade Rumors: Los Angeles Dodgers might be signing Amaury Sanit.

Sources close to Amaury Sanit tell Fernando Ballesteros at Puro Béisbol in Mexico that the Dodgers are interested in signing the 32-year-old Cuban reliever. Sanit logged just seven innings out of the Yankees’ pen last season before being released in June, but he has seen more action as the closer for the Culicán Tomateros in the Mexican League this winter, pitching to a 0.62 era in 36 appearances.

He has been rather unimpressive in the minors to this point and his stint in the majors was a disaster. Worse yet, he was suspended 50 games in 2010 for using performance enhancing drugs.

Nothing to get upset about, as it’ll be a minor league contract, but not noteworthy either.

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Kevin Goldstein of Baseball Prospectus relays on Twitter that the Dodgers have signed third baseman Josh Fields and pitcher Ryan Tucker.

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Beyond The Box Score: David Fung projects the Dodgers offense to be just as good in 2012 as it was in 2011…which is actually not good.