The tide has shifted completely in the Zack Greinke sweepstakes with sources now almost universally agreeing that the Rangers are the favorites.

Ken Rosenthal and Jon Paul Morosi speculate that their push for Justin Upton is born out of confidence regarding Greinke.

The Rangers’ fervent push for Upton, according to one rival executive, is an indication of their confidence in landing Greinke, who also is being pursued by the Los Angeles Dodgers.

Later, on Twitter, Rosenthal said that the Dodgers are considering pulling out of Greinke negotiations all together.

Mark Saxon got quotes from Ned Colletti expressing pessimism.

Asked if he was on the “doorstep” of acquiring Greinke, Dodgers general manager Ned Colletti said: “We’re not on the front lawn. … We’re barely out of the car at the curb. It’s better than driving around the neighborhood looking for the house. We know where the house is located. We just can’t seem to get out of the car.”

The Dodgers began negotiations with Greinke’s agent, Casey Close, in Nashville, but it doesn’t appear that they have made a formal offer to this point. Speculation is that Greinke could command a record deal for a right-hander — in the six-year, $150 million range.

Given the Dodgers’ deep pockets, it’s unlikely they would be outbid for Greinke, so it’s possible he prefers to pitch in another city. Reports indicated he was leaning toward the Texas Rangers.

Jon Heyman relays much of the same sentiment.

Dodgers people have begun to sound a bit less optimistic within the last day or so about their pursuit of star free-agent pitcher Zack Greinke. And although there’s no evidence anything is close or decided in Texas’ favor, a couple of Dodgers people even suggested that they are beginning to wonder whether Greinke may simply prefer the Rangers.

Just piling on at this point, Jim Bowden says Greinke is impressed with the Rangers organization.

A source has told me that Greinke was blown away by Nolan Ryan and Rangers Front Office..loves the ML team, prospects and chances to Win WS

So yeah, it’s safe to say that the momentum has shifted from the Dodgers to the Rangers for whatever reason, but whether this remains legit or is being fed to the press in order to drive up prices, or whatever else, is still unknown.

Like many of you, I’m just getting tired of the saga already because it holds up all of free agency, but then again, nobody said the rest have to wait for Greinke. He’s free to do things at his own pace if he so chooses, especially considering that he’s looking at committing the next 6 to 8 years of his life to a location.

—–

The suitors for Dee Gordon now total four, with the Braves and the Phillies now apparently in as well, according to Jayson Stark.

#Indians, #Mariners, #Braves & #Phillies among teams I heard asked #Dodgers about Dee Gordon. It appears all but Seat would try him in OF.

Not seeing what the return would be from those teams, so there must be other things at work in the background here if this trade were to happen.

Honestly though, I’m not seeing the upside in moving him to the outfield. The potential for him to be an MLB regular contributor came with the value of him playing shortstop, where his bat could be decidedly below average but he could still have value. In center or, even worse, left or right, he would basically be relegated to the upside of a poor man’s Juan Pierre. Say what you want about Pierre, but Gordon’s talent with the bat isn’t anywhere close to Pierre’s right now, and I’m not sure it’ll ever get there.

—–

Confirming a previous rumor, it was reiterated that the Dodgers have interest in Skip Schumaker.

The Dodgers and Twins are among the teams that have some level of interest in Cardinals bench player Skip Schumaker, Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reports.

I gave my thoughts on him the first time his name came up.

Credit: The LFP

The Zack Greinke saga is the story of the Winter Meetings, not only because he’s the top free agent out there, but also because he’s holding up the deals of other free agents, as they’re all waiting on him.

Whatever he decides, it figures to be at least borderline historical, as Jon Heyman notes.

Strong belief by people close to situation is greinke can beat cc sabathia $161M record deal if desires. #dodgers #rangers

But who’s in the lead now? Jayson Stark says the talk revolves around the Rangers…

The big buzz this morning at the winter meetings is: Watch out for Texas on Zack Greinke.

…and Joel Sherman gives a potential reason why Greinke might be leaning that way.

Told Greinke’s wife is former Dall #Cowboys cheerleader and could influence desire get back to Tex. score1 for #Rangers

The Nationals are out of the sweepstakes thanks to their Dan Haren acquisition, and the Angels are assumed to be out of it as well due to price concerns, according to Danny Knobler.

With Greinke bidding heading to $160 million and perhaps beyond, one Angels person said: “That’s going to blow us out of the water.”

Additionally, they just added Joe Blanton to their rotation.

Ken Gurnick reports that Greinke’s personal fingerprints appear to be all over the negotiations.

The speculation is that Greinke, and not Close, is orchestrating the leisurely pace of negotiations, which has log-jammed the free-agent market for pitchers. The 29-year-old Greinke could wind up with a contract bigger than CC Sabathia’s record for a pitcher of seven years and $161 million.

Reading between the lines a little, this could mean that the money is close enough where it boils down to personal matters, which could lead him to stray away from the Dodgers and the most money. It could also be the reason Josh Hamilton to the Mariners talks have picked up, as his agent might sense the Rangers will be out of the market for him.

Hopefully not, but the reports yesterday certainly weren’t as optimistic for the team as the day before.

—–

Those Dee Gordon rumors from yesterday? Well apparently they have some legs, and Jon Paul Morosi/Ken Rosenthal report that the Indians are in.

I looked at the Mariners roster yesterday to find a potential fit in a trade, but for the Indians I don’t see a clear-cut fit for the Dodgers current roster. I’m hoping it doesn’t involve Ubaldo Jimenez.

—–

As for Hyun Jin Ryu, yesterday was just a continuation of the day before.

Nor would Colletti say if he felt he was closer to a deal for Korean free-agent pitcher Ryu Hyun-jin.

“I just feel closer to Sunday,” Colletti said, because at 2 p.m. PT Sunday the Dodgers must either have a deal with Ryu or he returns to Korea.

Oddly enough, I think Jim Bowden‘s thoughts most accurately reflects reality.

Dodgers not worried about negotiations w Ryu… they know Boras style & will wait until Sunday Deadline to bear down with him & get it done

— JIM BOWDEN (@JimBowdenESPNxm) December 6, 2012

Though I would be lying if I said I didn’t cringe when Scott Boras started comparing him and his impending contract to Daisuke Matsuzaka.

“We have standards that all of us agree the guy is a No. 3 starter in the Major Leagues,” Boras said Wednesday. “And past practices, negotiations that we’ve done for [Daisuke] Matsuzaka, at that time Matsuzaka got paid [$52 million, six years] like he was a No. 3 pitcher in the big leagues. We think very highly of Ryu.

Why?

1) Expecting that contract is ridiculous to me.

2) Why would he ever want to associate an Asian pitcher’s potential career with that of Daisuke Matsuzaka?

—–

The Dodgers do need a lefty reliever in the pen for next year, and with Randy Choate now off the board, Mike Petriello brings up Matt Thornton‘s name.

With LH RP dropping off the board, #Dodgers will probably need to get one via trade. One rumored possibility: Matt Thornton of Chicago.

Would have loved this idea three or four years ago, but he’s now on a three-year negative trend, is going to be 36, and his stuff diminishing is becoming an annual event.

Still a better option than signing Choate for three years, but not exactly a guy you want to give up meaningful assets to acquire.

Dodger prospects could be surprisingly active come Thursday’s Rule 5 Draft, as there are two prospects drawing significant interest and two who might be plucked.

—–

Ben Badler of Baseball America has tweeted on more than one occasion in the last week that Jose Dominguez is seen as a potential Rule 5 draftee. Additionally, John Manuel wrote about him on Tuesday at Baseball America (subscription required).

Dominguez, 22, is facing a 25-game suspension after being busted last month for violating MLB‘s drug policy. He touched triple-digits in the minors this season and regularly sits in the high-90s.

Odds are the Dodgers left a flame-throwing reliever like this unprotected because of the drug suspension and the fact he threw just seven innings in Double-A this season after throwing 72 at Low-A Great Lakes.

Chance Of Selection: 60%

—–

Jon Paul Morosi of Fox Sports tweeted that Rafael Ynoa is generating interest as a possible selection.

Ynoa, 25, had a solid, yet unspectacular season at Double-A Chattanooga, posting a .278/.364/.352 triple-slash after drawing a career-high 58 walks. He profiles as a utility player, but his strength lies in the middle infield. Ynoa split time evenly between second base and shortstop this season. He also had a good Arizona Fall League, leading the Mesa Solar Sox in batting.

I wouldn’t be at all surprised if a team drafted Ynoa on Thursday. Despite having a limited ceiling, there is at least some value in his game.

Chance Of Selection: 40%

—–

Jonathan Mayo of MLB.com listed his top Rule 5 Draft prospects to watch and neither Dominguez nor Ynoa made the cut. However, Jarret Martin and Blake Smith did.

I hadn’t given Martin, 23, much thought — and I still don’t. He was acquired last winter along with Tyler Henson from Baltimore for Dana Eveland. He threw just 3 2/3 innings at High-A Rancho Cucamonga — his highest level of the minors.

Martin, who Mayo ranked 11th, has a good fastball that sits in the low-90s as a starter and can touch 95 MPH. He also has a slider. However, control issues have hindered him, as his 5.8 walks per nine innings would indicate.

Chance Of Selection: 10%

—–

Finally, Smith (one of my boys), is more appealing than I may have first thought. Mayo ranked him as the 18th-best prospect available.

Smith, 24, had a decent season with the Lookouts, hitting 13 home runs and posting a 12.1 percent walk rate — a career-high. Smith has good power potential, plays a good right field, and has a cannon for a right arm. All those skills are enticing. Last season was his first in Double-A, so I’m not sure just how attractive he is to other teams.

Chance Of Selection: 20%

—–

As for the Dodgers, I don’t really see them taking anyone. After all, part of the reason some of these guys are available to begin with is their 40-man roster crunch. On the other side though, odds are good that they end up losing a guy or two on this list to the draft.

Should be interesting to follow.

=====

Dustin Nosler is the founder of the site Feelin’ Kinda Blue. He also co-hosts the weekly podcast Dugout Blues. Follow him on Twitter @FeelinKindaBlue or like his site on Facebook.

The Dodgers made an offer to Hyun Jin Ryu, but it was rejected by Scott Boras, according to Ned Colletti.

The Dodgers made a long-term offer to Korean pitcher Ryu Hyun-jin on Tuesday, but it was rejected by agent Scott Boras.

“Predictably, it fell a tad short,” said general manager Ned Colletti.

The Dodgers have until Sunday to sign Ryu or they lose exclusive negotiating rights and their $25.7 million posting fee is refunded.

“We’re debating our next step,” said Colletti. “I don’t believe we’re close right now.”

As I said yesterday, I still think this is all posturing by both sides to get the best deal possible.

For his part, Boras later clarified the situation to Dylan Hernandez.

[Updated at 5:35 p.m.: Ryu's agent, Scott Boras, said he presented the Dodgers with a counteroffer. "We exchanged offers, and negotiations continue," Boras said.]

Boras, said his client should be compensated like a major league No. 3 starter. So, presumably, he’s looking for something in the $50-million range. [Updated at 9:45 p.m.: This estimate was high, according to a person familiar with the discussions.]

The reasons for the Dodgers wanting to wait should be obvious, because if they sign Zack Greinke and trade for James Shields or something of the sort, then their leverage in negotiations with Ryu becomes extremely one-sided.

For now? Just have to wait it out.

—–

Speaking of Greinke, the Dodgers and Rangers are apparently in a bidding war of sorts, according to Jon Heyman.

The Dodgers have been viewed as a fairly clear favorite for Greinke, but Texas is showing signs of determination, according to major-league sources.

The Dodgers are seen as having an almost unlimited payroll, but people familiar with the happenings now suggest the derby could go either way. Not many teams could hope to go dollar-for-dollar against the Dodgers, but the Rangers are trying to do just that.

The bidding is said by major-league officials to be “quite high” now, with two people pegging the dollar amount at about $160 million. And that’s with the deal not done yet. There seems an extreme likelhood now that Greinke will not only set a record for righthanded pitcher but for any pitcher, which is currently held by CC Sabathia, who signed for $161 million and seven years with the Yankees.

Some have suggested they could even see the Greinke deal reaching toward the $175-million mark.

This situation, however, could be severely impacted by the Rangers negotiations with Josh Hamilton, according to Danny Knobler, as they probably won’t sign both.

But one scenario they don’t see happening, according to sources, is a double free-agent signing of both Greinke and Hamilton.

And they certainly seem on pace to sign one or the other, according to Ken Rosenthal.

For his part, Jon Paul Morosi is of the belief that the Dodgers are the clear favorite, while Bill Shaikin adds that this drama may not be over by the time the Winter Meetings conclude.

—–

Connected to Greinke in a way, the Dodgers are apparently shopping Chris Capuano and Aaron Harang to whoever.

One exec says “Dodgers shopping Capuano and Harang around lobby. Greinke and Rhu, or Greinke and Sanchez or Dempster?”

#Dodgers becoming aggressive in shopping Harang and Capuano, source says. Could be a sign of confidence in landing Zack Greinke. @MLBONFOX

I doubt either of them would be hard to deal at any point in the off-season. Both are on short-term deals, the Dodgers could eat money if necessary, and the return demands probably won’t be significant.

—–

COMEDY BREAK

The Dodgers are running around shopping Juan Uribe!

One of the agendas the Dodgers are pushing aggressively in the lobby is to find a trade partner to take utility infielder Juan Uribe. Needless to say, the Dodgers are garnering little interest unless they’re willing to pay his entire contract. Uribe, who has batted .199 the past two seasons combined, is entering the final year of a three-year, $21 million contract.

What a disaster.

Asked an MLB official if #Dodgers might be able to interest #Yankees in Juan Uribe with A-Rod injured. The guy chuckled.

— Bill Shaikin (@BillShaikin) December 4, 2012

It’s become a punchline, as it should, really.

—–

Dee Gordon appears to be a popular target for teams, including the Mariners.

The Dodgers are fielding tons of inquiries on shortstop Dee Gordon, tweets Scott Miller of CBS Sports, though they’re not looking to deal him. The Mariners are among the teams hitting the Dodgers hard on Gordon, tweets Miller.

I’ve given my thoughts on Dee previously, though I’m not sure what the Mariners have that the Dodgers want.

No, it’s not Felix Hernandez. Stop.

I’m thinking more along the lines of Kyle Seager, Corey Seager‘s older brother. The Mariners have Alex Liddi and Vinnie Catricala.

—–

Perhaps the R.A. Dickey rumors have some legs after all?

Hearing Dodgers thinking big, have strong interest in Dickey even if they sign Grienke. But they don’t have good young OF to trade.

— John Harper (@NYDNHarper) December 4, 2012

Source says Mets could get speedy SS Dee Gordon and top pitching prospect Zach Lee from Dodgers for Dickey. But that doesn’t help OF.

— John Harper (@NYDNHarper) December 4, 2012

That would be … a lot for a rental.

Still not sure I buy the interest as legit either. Not yet, at least.

—–

In interest of filling out their bench, the Dodgers are apparently interested in trading for Skip Schumaker, according to Danny Knobler.

He plays second, left field, center field, and right field, so there’s versatility there, but he’s a terrible defender at second, a bad one in center, and just solid-average in the corners. Over the last three seasons, since he turned 30, he’s had an OPS+ of 88.

Not so thrilled, really.

—–

Oh, and Colletti shot down those rumors from yesterday about them seeking starters at SS/3B. But there’s no reason to think he’s being truthful either.

Zack Greinke news is dribbling in slowly, especially given that talks were expected to escalate quickly. The latest speculation is that the Dodgers and Rangers are out ahead, according to Bill Shaikin.

The Dodgers and Rangers appear to be the favorites for Greinke, with the Angels as the dark horse, tweets Bill Shaikin of the Los Angeles Times.

So apparently the Angels are still in the mix, which goes counter to a previous report. Perhaps the Nationals are now out of it after acquiring Dan Haren.

With that said though, if Josh Hamilton and the Rangers works out, it bodes well for the Dodgers chances at Greinke.

Sources: #Rangers, Hamilton making progress. Deal, if reached, likely would be 4 yrs. But still possible another team could beat TEX offer.

— Ken Rosenthal (@Ken_Rosenthal) December 4, 2012

—–

Remember when the Dodgers were hot and heavy with Anibal Sanchez? Well, that’s apparently still a thing, as they’re in the mix along with five other teams.

The Mystery Team has finally showed up in Nashville! Bob Nightengale of USA Today reports (via Twitter) that, in addition to the Tigers, Angels, Royals, Dodgers, and Red Sox, a mystery team is in the mix for Sanchez.

Mystery Team is ETERNALLY the dark horse.

I doubt the Dodgers interest in him is serious at this point, as they are occupied currently with Greinke and James Shields.

—–

Jim Bowden says the Dodgers are in on Rafael Soriano.

Don’t eliminate the Dodgers as a possible landing spot for Rafael Soriano, despite their multiyear commitment to Brandon League.

Since he opted out of a $14 million option, he’s obviously going to want multiple years and more money than that to sign.

The problem? He hasn’t been all that good over the past two seasons, posting a 3.97 FIP in 2011 and a 3.32 FIP in 2012. He’s going to want to be paid like Brandon League but he hasn’t even been as good as that in the last two seasons.

Why this would be a thing I have no idea.

—–

Dodgers are looking at reliever Mark Lowe, according to Jon Paul Morosi.

The market for setup relievers is starting to take shape, and free agent Mark Lowe is drawing interest from a number of teams.

The Dodgers, Giants, Brewers, Angels and Rays are among the clubs that have checked in on the right-hander, major-league sources told FOXSports.com. Of that group, Milwaukee’s need for bullpen help is particularly acute.

4.16 FIP in 2011, 4.32 FIP in 2012, 4.10 FIP career.

Depending on who he would replace in the pen, there’s a solid argument that signing him would be a downgrade.

—–

#dodgers are looking around a bit for a SS or 3B to potentially pair with hanley. seeming M.O.: all-star at all positions

— Jon Heyman (@JonHeymanCBS) December 4, 2012

Was waiting for this, actually.

If they actually have no restrictions, I’m not sure why they would go into next year satisfied with Hanley Ramirez at short and Luis Cruz at third.

The Dodgers have acquired Adrian Gonzalez, Josh Beckett, Carl Crawford, Nick Punto, and Cash from the Red Sox for Rubby De La Rosa, Allen Webster, Jerry Sands, James Loney, and Ivan De Jesus, according to Jon Paul Morosi of Fox Sports.

Source confirms @gordonedes report: #Dodgers “close” to obtaining Adrian Gonzalez, Josh Beckett, Carl Crawford, Nick Punto. @mlbonfox

— Jon Morosi (@jonmorosi) August 24, 2012

Source: #Dodgers have agreed to send Allen Webster, James Loney, Jerry Sands, Ivan De Jesus, and Rubby De La Rosa to #RedSox. @mlbonfox

— Jon Morosi (@jonmorosi) August 24, 2012

Source: If #Dodgers – #RedSox blockbuster occurs — and it is “close” — Boston would send some cash to LA. @mlbonfox

— Jon Morosi (@jonmorosi) August 24, 2012

I’ll have a more detailed update on this trade later on tomorrow, but as of right now, I’m floored, honestly.

—–

My first impression though is to say that the trade isn’t for the better of the Dodgers overall. Yes, it makes them a better team immediately, but they likely now have limited financial flexibility for years to come. Ironically, that’s the reason the Red Sox did this deal to begin with.

Before calling me an idiot and asking me what the significance of that payroll worry is because the Dodgers now have money, maybe read this first on the Dodgers payroll and the luxury tax.

Additionally, the Dodgers are sending two top prospects to the Red Sox, both of which could contribute soon, in Rubby and Webster. Sands is certainly not a regular at this point, but he’s ready to try now, and he could develop into one. De Jesus could be a decent utility guy and Loney is whatever.

—–

The contract obligations the Dodgers are assuming total in excess of $250 million AFTER this year is over, and the team is giving up two of their best prospects and another solid one, so unless the cash coming back is significant, then this probably leaves the team better off in the short-term but worse off in the long-term.

Surely this drastically makes the team better now, but it also sets the Dodgers up to have an old, injury prone, and expensive roster going forward. I sure hope the Dodgers win now, because if they don’t, it could get ugly in a hurry.

GM Ned Colletti says the Dodgers are far from done after landing Hanley Ramirez, as they still want a starter and a bat.

The Dodgers landed the middle-of-the-order bat they’ve been looking for in Hanley Ramirez, but general manager Ned Colletti on Wednesday said he’s still looking for a starting pitcher and another hitter.

“We’re still hunting for starting pitching. We won’t let this deal stand in the way of that,” said the general manager, who dealt starting pitcher Nathan Eovaldi and Minor League pitcher Scott McGough to the Marlins for Ramirez and left-handed reliever Randy Choate.

Completely makes sense, but who? Hence the mess of rumors to follow.

—–

Ryan Dempster Dumpster Fire Of Rumors

Yesterday, it was widely reported that the Dodgers were the front-runners for Ryan Dempster and that the team was confident they could land him.

A trade between the Dodgers and Cubs still seems “realistic,” Jon Paul Morosi of FOX Sports tweets.

The Dodgers have the upper hand in talks with the Cubs, Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com tweets.

The Dodgers are feeling increasingly confident that they can work out a deal for Dempster, ESPN.com’s Buster Olney tweets. The Cubs don’t have many alternatives given Dempster’s interest in playing for L.A. and his no-trade protection.

Today, it has been more of the same.

The Dodgers and Cubs continue talking and “might” be getting closer to a deal involving Dempster, Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports tweets.

Rival executives say the Dodgers are projecting an air of optimism about their chances of obtaining Dempster, ESPN.com’s Jayson Stark reports (on Twitter).

There seems to be a consensus on his destination, which makes sense since he’s all but said it’s the only place he’ll go at this point.

I had no problem with acquiring Dempster, because I figured he would be the upgrade that would come the cheapest for the team. That is, until I saw this tweeted:

Source: #Cubs have asked #Dodgers for Allen Webster as primary piece in Ryan Dempster talks.

— Jon Morosi (@jonmorosi) July 25, 2012

Uh … yeah … no thanks.

I thought the price was supposed to go down as they lose leverage, not up.

Allen Webster is a more advanced version of Garrett Gould with better velocity.

—–

Danny Knobler of CBS Sports reports that the availability of James Shields has drawn interest.

The Angels aren’t the only team in pursuit of James Shields. The Rangers and Dodgers have also made the Rays trade offers for the right-hander, Danny Knobler of CBSSports.com reports.

Jon Paul Morosi of Fox Sports says the Dodgers have alternatives to Dempster in … uh … vastly superior pitchers.

The Dodgers have Zack Greinke and Josh Johnson on their list in case they don’t trade for Dempster, Jon Paul Morosi of FOX Sports tweets.

Odd but okay.

Jayson Stark of ESPN reports that the Dodgers are in on basically every starting pitcher on the market.

The Dodgers are in on a number of starting pitchers, including Nolasco, Blanton, Kevin Millwood, and Jason Vargas in addition to Ryan Dempster and Matt Garza. They’ve also checked in on outfield and first base help, including Victorino and Justin Morneau.

The team is also looking at outfield and first base, which wouldn’t surprise Ken Rosenthal.

Source: #Dodgers deal for Victorino or Pence possible even if team gets Dempster along with H. Ramirez. LA has been in talks with #Phillies.

— Ken Rosenthal (@Ken_Rosenthal) July 25, 2012

—–

In terms of pitching, I’m sort of at the point now where if the Dodgers don’t swing a trade for an elite arm, I’d rather they just do nothing. If Dempster is seriously going to command at least a top five prospect in the system, why bother? With Ted Lilly on his way back, the team has five starters, and John Ely, Stephen Fife, and Webster wait in the minors.

As far as the bats go, I’ve already explained why I’d rather the team not acquire Shane Victorino, and Justin Morneau‘s 0.0 WAR line of .253/.314/.437/.751 doesn’t impress me. The only name that’s intriguing is Hunter Pence. His .267/.334/.447/.781 line isn’t impressive, but he’s a ~3 WAR player that would represent a meaningful upgrade.

Ken Rosenthal and Jon Paul Morosi of Fox Sports reported that the Dodgers have agreed to trade Nate Eovaldi and Scott McGough to the Marlins for Hanley Ramirez and Randy Choate.

Surprised? So is basically everybody else.

The Miami Marlins’ shocking midseason rebuild continued with a blockbuster trade after 2 a.m. ET Wednesday: They sent mercurial star Hanley Ramirez and left-handed reliever Randy Choate to the Dodgers for young pitchers Nathan Eovaldi and Scott McGough, according to major-league sources.

The trade will have lasting ramifications for the entire National League. The Dodgers, 2 1/2 games behind the archrival Giants in the West, made clear their intent to reach the postseason in their first year under new ownership. The trade amounted to a show of financial might for the Dodgers; Ramirez, 28, is earning $15 million this season, and no cash was included in the deal.

I previously gave my general thoughts on the trade here, and upon further review of the numbers and the circumstances, I still feel similar, but with a tad bit more apprehension.

Hanley Ramirez

As a 22-year-old in 2006, Hanley won the National League Rookie Of The Year Award with an .833 OPS. In the three seasons following that, he posted a line of .325/.398/.549/.947 as a shortstop, deservingly attaining superstar billing. Starting in 2010 though, he saw his production decline and controversy over his hustle erupt. While he posted a still elite .853 OPS at the SS position, he was no longer one of the best hitters in the league.

Suffering from a shoulder injury and general ineffectiveness in 2011, he missed half the year and performed woefully below his standards when he was healthy. That trend continues into 2012, as he has now posted a .245/.328/.405/.732 line in his last 184 games. Making matters worse, he recently has been suffering from an infected hand … basically because he forgot to take medication for it.

With a bat that puts him around league average as a hitter, he would still be quite valuable at both SS and 3B if he could field his position. Unfortunately, using any metric you want, Hanley is not an average defender. For his career at shortstop, he averages -12.1 runs via Plus/Minus, -9.1 runs via UZR, and -11.8 runs via FRAA. In other words, he’s a bad defender there. In 2012, he moved to 3B but hasn’t shown to be any better there. He’s on pace for -17.1 runs via Plus/Minus, -11.2 runs via UZR, and -22.7 runs via FRAA at the hot corner. To be kind about it, he’s a mediocre defender no matter where he has played.

As I said though, he’ll be an improvement for the Dodgers at either position almost no matter what:

Regardless of what position he ends up playing, Hanley figures to be a gigantic improvement over the unholy combination of Juan Uribe, Dee Gordon, Adam Kennedy, Elian Herrera, and Luis Cruz. The production the Dodgers are getting from both 3B and SS is just terrible, and it’s not like they were playing quality defense either, so Hanley’s questionable glove shouldn’t burn the team too often.

Then there’s the issue of his contract. The Dodgers are paying him ~$40 million for two years and two months of his service, which puts ~7.5 WAR as the target where the Dodgers can get fair value just for what they have to pay him. At his peak, this would be a complete no-brainer, as he could put up a 7.5 WAR season in a single year; he was that great of a hitter. Now though? He’s amassed a little over ~2 WAR in 2011 and 2012 combined. Performing at levels similar to this, he’s a 2-3 WAR player, which would make the trade a poor deal for the Dodgers.

—–

Hanley is still an elite talent though, and the Dodgers took a risk in a market where elite talents are almost impossible to acquire without dropping a 10-year contract on them.

While nagging injuries is just one of the many explanations I’ve heard for Hanley’s decline, luck can also have an effect. Ramirez never posted a BABIP below .327 prior to 2011, but then posted a .275 BABIP in 2011 and has a .271 BABIP this year. It doesn’t explain away all of his poor performance, but even regression back to .310 or so would make him a well above average player again, so there’s reason to think that Ned Colletti bought low here (yes, you read that correctly).

Furthermore, in the context of the Dodgers current roster and farm system at SS and 3B, the team clearly can’t fill those positions internally, so Hanley being average there is worth more to the Dodgers than it might be to others. This is especially true due to the almost non-existent free agent market at those positions in the coming years.

—–

The Dodgers made this trade with the expectation that Hanley would do a lot more than he currently is, and he’ll have to be better just to make the trade fair for both sides. The Dodgers are banking that he can regain his old form with a change of scenery, a change of coaching staff, and perhaps a refreshed attitude. It’s far from impossible for him, as finding just one of those things can do wonders for a player.

Just ask Matt Kemp.

Randy Choate

Choate is a lefty reliever making $1.5 million this year and he will be a free agent at the end of 2012. He’s pitching well thus far, posting a 2.49 ERA, 2.35 FIP, 3.11 xFIP, and 2.68 SIERA. More importantly though, he’s dominating lefties to the tune of a .150/.200/.183/.383 line. It’s no fluke either, as lefties have hit .203/.277/.285/.562 off Choate over his career.

Is he an impact player? No, but he fills a need that the Dodgers have been seeking out since the start of Spring Training. Scott Elbert has been effective as the bullpen’s only lefty, but lefties have a .325 wOBA off him compared to a .251 wOBA for righties. That creates a problem for the Dodgers when they need a matchup lefty late in the game, and Choate fills that role for the team perfectly.

Nate Eovaldi

Over his 91 innings in the MLB, he has posted a 3.96 ERA and 4.18 FIP. As a player that can contribute to the Marlins immediately, he can already be seen as a ~2 WAR type of pitcher. Given that he has about five years of team control left after 2012, there’s no doubt he’s a valuable commodity.

As far as upside goes, I don’t think he’s done anything to acquit himself of the #3 label I gave him back in March, as he’s still fastball dominant with lagging off-speed pitches. However, he’s a productive, cheap player that’s one adjustment away from approaching his ceiling.

Despite his value, the Dodgers trading an arm like him makes sense:

From the Dodgers perspective though, they have a ton of arms in the system, and with both Rubby De La Rosa and Ted Lilly due back soon, plus a potential trade for Ryan Dempster/Matt Garza, Nate was an understandably expendable piece.

The surplus of arms in the system made him expendable if the Dodgers could get a quality return … and they did.

Scott McGough

I wrote about him back in February and nothing has changed since then, in my opinion.

I haven’t seen him get much attention but I liked him at the University Of Oregon and I think he has a chance at a bullpen role down the road. Sitting 91-93 and touching 95, there’s plenty of velocity to make it to the show. However, his low-80s slurve will need to improve, not so much the command like most young pitchers, but the break itself needs to be sharper or it’ll get hammered as he moves levels.

Or if you don’t believe me, then Kevin Goldstein posted a similar report a few hours back.

A fifth-round pick in 2011, McGough is an intriguing relief prospect who still has plenty to work on. At six feet tall and with a slight build, he’s on the small side, but he has an incredibly fast arm capable of firing 93-95-mph fastballs that touch 97, although there is some effort in his delivery. His command and control is no better than average, and his ultimate role as either a late-inning reliever or just another bullpen piece will come down to the development of his slider. He’ll flash a plus one with heavy break, but it’s a rarity, as he has a tendency to overthrow the pitch and has trouble keeping it in the strike zone.

I think McGough can contribute for the Marlins in the bullpen with some development, but I don’t see him as an elite arm that would fit as a closer or such. Therefore, I don’t mind his inclusion in the deal.

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At the current level of production for all the players involved, the Dodgers are paying around $40 million for about 6 WAR and are trading 8-10 WAR (Eovaldi) or more plus potentially six years of a solid reliever (McGough) to the Marlins. That reality is why the trade is a significant risk on the part of the Dodgers.

Even taking that into consideration though, the temptation of Hanley’s upside chart is what makes this deal. It represents what could happen if Hanley does round back into form (~15 WAR), and it’s significant because the Dodgers will then have managed to pick up a rare elite talent in a market that’s a bit bare at the moment.

So with money to burn and the Dodgers having no internal answers, the gamble seems to be worth taking.

According to Ken Rosenthal and Jon Paul Morosi of Fox Sports, the Dodgers have traded Nate Eovaldi and Scott McGough to the Marlins for Hanley Ramirez and Randy Choate.

BLOCKBUSTER: Hanley Ramirez & Randy Choate to #Dodgers, Nathan Eovaldi & Scott McGough to #Marlins, sources tell @Ken_Rosenthal and me.

— Jon Morosi (@jonmorosi) July 25, 2012

I’ll have complete analysis (with all the nerdy stuff) in the morning, but for now, my gut reaction is that it makes sense for both teams.

Regardless of what position he ends up playing, Hanley figures to be a gigantic improvement over the unholy combination of Juan Uribe, Dee Gordon, Adam Kennedy, Elian Herrera, and Luis Cruz. The production the Dodgers are getting from both 3B and SS is just terrible, and it’s not like they were playing quality defense either, so Hanley’s questionable glove shouldn’t burn the team too often.

While I am admittedly excited by the gigantic upside of this deal if Hanley figures it out again, it’s not without risk. After all, there’s a reason the Marlins let him walk with 2 1/2 years of team control remaining.

First of all, Hanley is signed through 2014 and is still owed $31 million over the next two years, including whatever he’s still owed in 2012. Additionally, his batting line has been woeful (by his standards) since 2010, clocking in at .245/.328/.405/.732. Plus, as I mentioned, he’s not a good defender, regardless of where he plays, and there are very real concerns about his motivation and happiness. Normally I would dismiss this as media inflated crap due to him under-performing, but then I consider that his hand got infected because he forgot to take his antibiotics, and you start to wonder.

Choate, the other half of this deal on the Marlins side, also makes sense for the Dodgers. Lefties are batting .150/.200/.183/.383 (yes, really) off him in 2012, and while there’s nothing wrong with Scott Elbert, he’s actually effective against righties much more than lefties in 2012.

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For the Marlins, Eovaldi should be a solid rotation contributor, though I think his upside still lies as a #3 because his off-speed stuff lags behind his fastball. From the Dodgers perspective though, they have a ton of arms in the system, and with both Rubby De La Rosa and Ted Lilly due back soon, plus a potential trade for Ryan Dempster/Matt Garza, Nate was an understandably expendable piece. It wouldn’t shock me if the Dodgers lose this trade in terms of surplus value in the end, but I think the deal makes sense, regardless.

Who is McGough though, right? I wrote about him back in February and nothing much has changed yet. I still think he can be a MLB contributor in the bullpen, but he’s not going to be an elite guy and the Dodgers have a ton of arms, so his inclusion isn’t all that important to me.

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Overall, I feel the deal makes sense for both sides. The two teams want to go in different directions, and with the free agent market dwindling for the Dodgers, they could afford to absorb salary in exchange for upgrades/upside beyond 2012, and they did exactly that. Meanwhile, the Marlins cleared a contract and a headache off their slate and got solid cost-controlled pieces in return, at least one of which can contribute to the team immediately.

Ken Gurnick reports that the Dodgers and Juan Rivera have agreed on a one-year contract worth 4 million dollars that includes an option year. Jon Paul Morosi adds that the option year is a team option worth 4 million dollars with a $500k buyout and that there are $500k worth of incentives in both years. Dylan Hernandez had the initial report of a deal being finalized.

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Despite appearances, Juan Rivera does have value, as he hit .274/.333/.406/.739 in a Dodgers uniform last year. Additionally, he’s a competent fielder, posting a 3.0 runs defensive WAR value in 2011 with a history of above average defensive play. However, his .324 wOBA is mediocre for the position, and he hasn’t posted an OBP over ~.330 since 2006. Plus, his power has fallen in two consecutive seasons, which isn’t the most promising sign for a soon to be 34-year-old. As one might expect, he’s worth -1.5 runs on the basepaths and that only figures to get worse as he ages.

Given enough playing time, he would be hard pressed not to be a break even value for the Dodgers at 4-5 million dollars (~1.0 WAR). The catch is that starting him full time means he takes significant playing/development time away from Jerry Sands, who might be a superior player as it is. On the other hand, if the Dodgers choose not to start him and use him as a bench player or a platoon partner for Andre Ethier and James Loney, then he’s unlikely to accumulate enough value to justify his contract even as a neutral move. If it sounds like a Catch-22, that’s because it is.

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In a vacuum, I actually don’t mind having Juan Rivera on the Dodgers. He has value as a bench bat that can competently play three positions and hit a bit, but with the Dodgers situation, there’s only a tiny window for him to succeed, especially given his age.