Baseball fans love to talk about clutch plays and clutch players, and Dodgers fans are no exception, but like with a pitcher’s best and worst pitches, there tends to be a lack of evidence presented. As such, I decided to find some basis for clutch plays and clutch players, courtesy of the WPA and Clutch statistics.

WPA

Most sabermetric statistics are context neutral — they do not consider the situation of a particular event or how some plays are more crucial to a win than others. While wOBA rates all home runs as equal, we know intuitively that a home run in the third inning of a blowout is less important to that win than a home run in the bottom of the ninth inning of a close game. Win Probability Added (WPA) captures this difference by measuring how individual players affect their team’s win expectancy on a per-play basis.

Clutch

In the words of David Appelman, this calculation measures, “…how much better or worse a player does in high leverage situations than he would have done in a context neutral environment.” It also compares a player against himself, so a player who hits .300 in high leverage situations when he’s an overall .300 hitter is not considered clutch.

So that’s the foundation for this post, and since that’s now been established, let’s get on with it, shall we?

As always, visuals have been provided because, let’s be honest, everything is better with visuals.

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I feel like it’s necessary to point out that none of this is predictive of the future or telling of the past. It’s a post about stuff that happened in 2012. That’s all.

In other words, please don’t link back to this while saying, “LOOK! THIS DUDE IS SUCH A CHOKER, BRO!” No.

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Top Five David Carradine Choke Pitches Of 2012

1. Kenley Jansen – -65.2%

Still amuses me that the umpire called the first runner out initially.

Anyway, so technically this wasn’t a pitch, but … uh … it was one of the most ridiculous ways to allow two runs I have ever seen.

It was the ninth inning and there were runners on second and third with two down. The Dodgers were clinging to a one-run lead, so it’s not like they weren’t in trouble since a hit would have had a similar result, but this was certainly more creative.

2. Javy Guerra – -64.8%

Two-run walk-off doubles tend to result in being on this list.

3. Kenley Jansen – -45.2%

Giving up a two-run single with a one-run lead in the top of eighth is not good, but it would have been worse had Matt Kemp not gunned a runner down at third.

Oh, and it was Hunter Pence who did the damage, thus making it ten times worse.

4. Javy Guerra – -44.5%

Deja vu.

5. Javy Guerra – -43.7%

Remember when people scoffed at the notion that Kenley Jansen was the better reliever? Oops.

To be fair, this was the game where he got his face destroyed, which seems like a legit excuse for giving up a game-tying one-run single.

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Kenley Jansen might be an idiot, but boy did the closer role not suit Javy Guerra.

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Top Five Chokeiest Dodgers Of 2012 – Ball Thrower Division

1. Javy Guerra – -1.44
2. Joe Blanton – -0.43
3. Chad Billingsley – -0.36
4. Clayton Kershaw – -0.25
5. Kenley Jansen – -0.23

As fans of the Dodgers, we’re always analyzing which pitchers have the best and worst pitches, but we normally base that on nothing but our own feelings at the moment, so I decided to take a more objective look at things.

For a pitch to qualify for these rankings, I used a 200-pitch minimum for starters and a 50-pitch minimum for relievers. The metric used to measure pitch effectiveness is True Average (TAv), which is basically like wOBA. League average performance is set at .260, and the metric doesn’t include baserunning.

Additionally, to prevent the post from being solely numbers-based, and one that would have been mind-numbingly boring, I decided to provide visual evidence as well.

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Worst Overall Pitches

Chad Billingsley – Cutter – .336 TAv

Josh Beckett – Fastball – .307 TAv

Aaron Harang – Sinker – .307 TAv

Ladies and gentlemen, welcome to the dumpster fire.

HOLY SHIT CHAD BILLINGSLEY STOP THROWING THAT PITCH

For the most part, he did abandon it in 2012, but apparently not enough. And honestly, it’s hard to tell when he was trying to throw a cutter or a slider because they both sucked and his separation between the pitches was inconsistent (protip: that is bad).

Also, there was a time when the fastballs of Josh Beckett and Aaron Harang (seriously, he posted 5 WAR seasons throwing it like 70% of the time) were feared. Not anymore.

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Worst Individual Pitches

Fastball

Josh Beckett – .307 TAv

*Visual Is Above*

Chris Capuano – .297
Joe Blanton – .268
Aaron Harang – .256
Clayton Kershaw – .253
Chad Billingsley – .241
Ted Lilly – .213

How far the mighty have fallen…

Sinker

Aaron Harang – .307 TAv

*Visual Is Above*

Joe Blanton – .295
Josh Beckett – .278
Chris Capuano – .272
Chad Billingsley – .232

To put this into perspective, by throwing it to a hitter, he basically turned everybody into Josh Hamilton.

Cutter

Chad Billingsley – .336 TAv

*Visual Is Above*

Josh Beckett – .282
Joe Blanton – .253

Curve

Chad Billingsley – .251 TAv

Aaron Harang – .240
Joe Blanton – .183
Josh Beckett – .183
Clayton Kershaw – .084

Slider

Chad Billingsley – .263 TAv

Joe Blanton – .250
Aaron Harang – .218
Clayton Kershaw – .213
Chris Capuano – .190

Stuff wise, I don’t actually think his off-speed pitches are bad. Location wise? Yeah, he hangs them a lot. A LOT.

Change

Joe Blanton – .264 TAv

Josh Beckett – .237
Chris Capuano – .211

It’s almost as if throwing a change with no movement or deception is a bad thing.

As fans of the Dodgers, we’re always analyzing which pitchers have the best and worst pitches, but we normally base that on nothing but our own feelings at the moment, so I decided to take a more objective look at things.

For a pitch to qualify for these rankings, I used a 200-pitch minimum for starters and a 50-pitch minimum for relievers. The metric used to measure pitch effectiveness is True Average (TAv), which is basically like wOBA. League average performance is set at .260, and the metric doesn’t include baserunning.

Additionally, to prevent the post from being solely numbers-based, and one that would have been mind-numbingly boring, I decided to provide visual evidence as well.

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Best Overall Pitches

Clayton Kershaw – Curve – .084 TAv

Josh Beckett – Curve – .183 TAv

Joe Blanton – Curve – .183 TAv

Am I surprised by the fact that the curve was the hardest pitch to do damage with? Yes and no. No, because it was bound to be an off-speed pitch, simply because fastballs are easier to command, thus they get thrown when a pitcher is behind in the count while the opposite is true for off-speed stuff. But yes, because I thought it would be the slider, which has basically become synonymous with swings and misses in recent times.

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Best Individual Pitches

Fastball

Ted Lilly – .213 TAv

Chad Billingsley – .241
Clayton Kershaw – .253
Aaron Harang – .256
Joe Blanton – .268
Chris Capuano – .297
Josh Beckett – .307

Is there a better example of the importance of pitch sequencing than this? Granted, it’s a small sample size because of his injury, but the fact that his fastball didn’t get blasted every single time he threw it is a testament to how he has to mix pitches to make his fastball seem harder to hit than it actually is.

Sinker

Chad Billingsley – .232 TAv

Chris Capuano – .272
Josh Beckett – .278
Joe Blanton – .295
Aaron Harang – .307

Annoyed by how I keep ranting on Twitter about how Chad Billingsley needs to throw his fastball more? Yeah, well he finally made the adjustment in 2012, but you should still get comfortable with hearing it, because he needs to continue to do that.

Cutter

Joe Blanton – .253 TAv

Josh Beckett – .282
Chad Billingsley – .336

Curve

Clayton Kershaw – .084 TAv

*Visual Is Above*

Josh Beckett – .183
Joe Blanton – .183
Aaron Harang – .240
Chad Billingsley – .251

Just stupid.

Slider

Chris Capuano – .190 TAv

Clayton Kershaw – .213
Aaron Harang – .218
Joe Blanton – .250
Chad Billingsley – .263

Change

Chris Capuano – .211 TAv

Josh Beckett – .237
Joe Blanton – .264

Chris Capuano is like the anti-Chad Billingsley. He has effective off-speed stuff, but oh boy does his fastball get blasted to high heaven. Really puts an exclamation mark on how he needs to get ahead in the count.

Credit: The LFP

The Zack Greinke saga is the story of the Winter Meetings, not only because he’s the top free agent out there, but also because he’s holding up the deals of other free agents, as they’re all waiting on him.

Whatever he decides, it figures to be at least borderline historical, as Jon Heyman notes.

Strong belief by people close to situation is greinke can beat cc sabathia $161M record deal if desires. #dodgers #rangers

But who’s in the lead now? Jayson Stark says the talk revolves around the Rangers…

The big buzz this morning at the winter meetings is: Watch out for Texas on Zack Greinke.

…and Joel Sherman gives a potential reason why Greinke might be leaning that way.

Told Greinke’s wife is former Dall #Cowboys cheerleader and could influence desire get back to Tex. score1 for #Rangers

The Nationals are out of the sweepstakes thanks to their Dan Haren acquisition, and the Angels are assumed to be out of it as well due to price concerns, according to Danny Knobler.

With Greinke bidding heading to $160 million and perhaps beyond, one Angels person said: “That’s going to blow us out of the water.”

Additionally, they just added Joe Blanton to their rotation.

Ken Gurnick reports that Greinke’s personal fingerprints appear to be all over the negotiations.

The speculation is that Greinke, and not Close, is orchestrating the leisurely pace of negotiations, which has log-jammed the free-agent market for pitchers. The 29-year-old Greinke could wind up with a contract bigger than CC Sabathia’s record for a pitcher of seven years and $161 million.

Reading between the lines a little, this could mean that the money is close enough where it boils down to personal matters, which could lead him to stray away from the Dodgers and the most money. It could also be the reason Josh Hamilton to the Mariners talks have picked up, as his agent might sense the Rangers will be out of the market for him.

Hopefully not, but the reports yesterday certainly weren’t as optimistic for the team as the day before.

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Those Dee Gordon rumors from yesterday? Well apparently they have some legs, and Jon Paul Morosi/Ken Rosenthal report that the Indians are in.

I looked at the Mariners roster yesterday to find a potential fit in a trade, but for the Indians I don’t see a clear-cut fit for the Dodgers current roster. I’m hoping it doesn’t involve Ubaldo Jimenez.

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As for Hyun Jin Ryu, yesterday was just a continuation of the day before.

Nor would Colletti say if he felt he was closer to a deal for Korean free-agent pitcher Ryu Hyun-jin.

“I just feel closer to Sunday,” Colletti said, because at 2 p.m. PT Sunday the Dodgers must either have a deal with Ryu or he returns to Korea.

Oddly enough, I think Jim Bowden‘s thoughts most accurately reflects reality.

Dodgers not worried about negotiations w Ryu… they know Boras style & will wait until Sunday Deadline to bear down with him & get it done

— JIM BOWDEN (@JimBowdenESPNxm) December 6, 2012

Though I would be lying if I said I didn’t cringe when Scott Boras started comparing him and his impending contract to Daisuke Matsuzaka.

“We have standards that all of us agree the guy is a No. 3 starter in the Major Leagues,” Boras said Wednesday. “And past practices, negotiations that we’ve done for [Daisuke] Matsuzaka, at that time Matsuzaka got paid [$52 million, six years] like he was a No. 3 pitcher in the big leagues. We think very highly of Ryu.

Why?

1) Expecting that contract is ridiculous to me.

2) Why would he ever want to associate an Asian pitcher’s potential career with that of Daisuke Matsuzaka?

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The Dodgers do need a lefty reliever in the pen for next year, and with Randy Choate now off the board, Mike Petriello brings up Matt Thornton‘s name.

With LH RP dropping off the board, #Dodgers will probably need to get one via trade. One rumored possibility: Matt Thornton of Chicago.

Would have loved this idea three or four years ago, but he’s now on a three-year negative trend, is going to be 36, and his stuff diminishing is becoming an annual event.

Still a better option than signing Choate for three years, but not exactly a guy you want to give up meaningful assets to acquire.

Clayton Kershaw

After Clayton Kershaw‘s 2011 performance, for which he won the Cy Young Award, I wasn’t sure I could be more impressed with him going forward. That’s not to say I was certain he had peaked, but it would no longer come as a surprise to me or anyone else. What impressed me so much about his 2012 season though, was the fact that he had another fantastic season while pitching through physical adversity.

Kershaw had to deal with plantar fasciitis throughout most, if not all of, the campaign, on top of a late-season hip injury that could have led to surgery, and an early-season illness that forced him to last just three innings in his 2012 debut.

After 2011 bests in FIP (2.28), SIERA (2.81), xFIP (2.84), BB/9 IP (2.08), and WAR (7.2), Clayton followed with excellent marks across that spectrum yet again, with a 2.53 FIP, 3.24 SIERA, 3.25 xFIP, 2.49 free passes per nine, and a 6.3 WAR. His strikeouts remained above one per inning (9.57/9 IP in 2011, 9.05 in 2012), and he backed up his 0.98 WHIP last season with a 1.02 mark this year.

Kid K has made his living missing bats and inducing weak contact, and he continued that trend in 2012, inducing a mess of infield popups (12.2 IFFB%) and increasing the amount of ground balls he generates for a fourth consecutive season (39.4%/40.1%/43.2%/46.9%).

In line for his second consecutive Cy, and fresh off of winning the Roberto Clemente Award, Clayton heads into 2013 on the last year of the two-year deal he signed to avoid arbitration. Slated to make just $11 million in ’13, the underpaid Clayton should have already received a long-term extension. Locking up the young stud southpaw should be the primary objective of Ned Colletti and his staff going forward.

Chad Billingsley

Entering 2012, Chad Billingsley was coming off of a pair of interesting and contrasting seasons: 2010 was his best season ever, while 2011 saw him take a step back. Always the lightning rod for Dodgers fans, especially with Jonathan Broxton away in Kansas City, Bills was at somewhat of a crossroads, as a good campaign would go a long way with the organization, while a sub-par one could have easily landed him elsewhere.

Always a Billingsley fan myself, I was very optimistic about his 2012 prospects, with one caveat:

Bills struggles resulted in a WAR cut in half from the previous year (2.1, down from 4.5) and questions about his mechanics and health. Still shy of his 28th birthday, Billingsley has every chance to rebound, and much like his poor second half of 2009 led to his best professional season, said rebound in 2012 would not be the least surprising to me. In fact, I’ll call it right now, as I fully expect Chad to be productive as Kershaw’s running mate next season, provided he is in fact healthy.

And unfortunately, that caveat became reality, as Chad suffered from an elbow injury that sent him to the DL twice, felled him permanently from August 24th on, and may require Tommy John surgery if plasma injections and rest don’t suffice as a rehab method.

Prior to being shut down, Chad started 25 games, and in just shy of 150 innings, had been excellent. A FIP of 3.34, SIERA of 3.83, and HR/9 of just 0.66 worked to produce a 2.5 WAR. On pace for another 3.5 WAR season, what was most impressive about the 2012 version of Billingsley was the fact that he had cut down significantly on his walks, trimming a 4.02 BB/9 mark down to 2.71.

While Bills isn’t the pitcher Kershaw is, we saw what cutting down on free passes did for Clayton, and it was working well for Chad too before his elbow got in the way of what was shaping up to be one of his best seasons. The Dodgers were able to lock him up prior to the 2011 season for a team-friendly three-year contract with a club option for 2015, and Chad will make $11 million this upcoming year whether or not he can throw a pitch.

A 2013 prediction for Chad really can’t be accurately made, as we have little idea whether the treatments he’s presently undergoing will ultimately allow him to pitch, though the most recent news is very promising. Tommy John surgery would wipe out his entire season, but if the treatments work and he’s able to suit up for the Dodgers next year, there’s ample reason to expect another solid year.

Chris Capuano

Chris Capuano was signed to a back-loaded two-year, $10 million deal with a 2014 mutual option, and while I wasn’t thrilled with the back-loaded nature of the deal, I was alright with him being brought on as a #4 starter. Granted, with the Dodgers #3 being Ted Lilly, they really had no #3 and a plethora of #4/#5 options, but with Cap there was at least some upside.

Coming off a bounce back 2011 season following injury issues, Capuano had a solid #3/#4 type season, whiffing 7.35/9 IP while issuing 2.45 BB/9. Like the two men to follow in this review, Chris struggled in limiting home runs, allowing over one per contest. Those walk and homer numbers were improvements over his 2011 season with the Mets, but he also struck out almost a batter less per nine than he did in his lone season in New York.

A look at his FIP, SIERA, and WAR don’t offer a clear picture beyond the aforementioned #3/#4 starter status, as he improved his FIP from 2011 (4.04/3.95), as well as his WAR (1.4/2.3), but saw a decently sharp increase in his SIERA (3.63/3.90). Cap allows a lot of hard contact (~20% LD career) and fly balls (~40% career), so pitching in a park like Dodger Stadium helps to mitigate the struggles associated with that.

Perhaps most interesting is Chris’ career pre- and post-ASG splits. In 2012, Capuano allowed a .232/.295/.374/.669 line to opponents pre-break, but that ballooned to .281/.317/.454/.770 following the mid-summer classic. Those numbers hold true for his career, as he’s always been more of a first-half pitcher (.257/.320/.414/.734 vs. .273/.331/.473/.804 with BABIP and K/BB marks that have remained steady).

He’ll enter 2013 as the #3 or #4 starter, and if he can up that strikeout rate a bit, he could be solid yet again.

Aaron Harang

Signed to a back-loaded two-year, $12 million deal with a mutual option for 2014 — a deal I was against at the time and still am upset with — Aaron Harang was exactly what he has been since Dusty Baker ruined his arm a few years back: an overpaid #4/#5 starter.

In 31 starts and just under 180 innings, Harang struck out a paltry 6.56 per nine while issuing an poor 4.26 free passes per nine. His shiny ERA may lead many to see his season as a success, but dig just a bit deeper and you find a 4.14 FIP, 4.87 SIERA, and just a 1.7 WAR.

Harang hasn’t exceeded 2.3 WAR since 2007, has not struck out more than seven per nine since 2009, and has seen his walk rate trend up in the last four seasons. That’s … uh … not good, and barring a trade, Harang will return and try to hold off age for another 30 or so starts.

Ted Lilly

Lilly only made eight starts in 2012, totaling under 50 innings, as the injury bug bit him hard in the form of a left shoulder ailment that would end up requiring arthroscopic surgery.

Prior to his injury, in an obviously small sample size, the veteran lefty posted a 3.92 FIP and 4.81 SIERA while seeing a sharp drop in his strikeout numbers from 2011 and his career rate (5.73 in ’12, 7.38 in ’11, 7.64 career).

Entering the final year of a back-loaded three-year-deal that will pay him $12 million in 2013, Lilly no longer has no-trade clause protection, but considering that he is coming off of an injury to his pitching shoulder and will be 37 for the duration of next season, there’s not much value to be had on the trade market anyway.

Lilly will reportedly be available for Spring Training barring any setback, and with a rotation already set, there’s a chance Lilly winds up in the pen to complement Scott Elbert and/or Paco Rodriguez, occupying a long-relief role and spot-starting when necessary.

Josh Beckett

Acquired in the massive deal with Boston, Josh Beckett arrived on the heels of an overblown but still bad 21 starts with the Red Sox in 2012. I say overblown because he was pitching like a #3 starter in 2012, but with all of the focus on his personality and the September collapse of 2011, you’d have thought he was pitching his way out of baseball entirely.

His results were terrible in Boston (5.23 ERA), but Beckett had posted a 4.26 FIP and 4.28 SIERA before the deal, while walking 2.7 per 9. Most concerning were his drop in strikeouts to roughly 6.5 per 9 after five straight seasons of over 8.0 per 9.

Upon his arrival, Beckett was solid and showed improvement, striking out almost 8.0 per 9 with a 3.82 FIP and 3.81 SIERA. While some might attribute that to the new manager and new clubhouse environment, it’s far more likely due to the weaker league and weaker division, offensively-speaking.

Beckett is under contract for another two seasons, each at $15.75 million, and slots in as the #2 or #3 starter heading into 2013. Going into his age-33 season, Beckett is no sure thing to transform back into the front of the rotation starter he once was, though that’s what the Dodgers will need out of him if they don’t go out and get an arm in the off-season.

Joe Blanton

Acquired from the Phillies for a PTNBL that eventually became pitcher Ryan O’Sullivan, Joe Blanton turned in a solid ten starts for the Blue Crew, posting a 3.74 FIP and 3.61 SIERA while whiffing 8.0 per 9 and walking 2.5 per 9.

Blanton’s strikeouts were a pleasant surprise, as his career mark sits just above 6.0 per 9, though he did struggle with the home run, as usual, allowing over one per game as a Dodger. Blanton’s overall season numbers are fifth-starter material, as he posted a 1.7 WAR, though his peripherals were good enough to be a #4.

After making $8.5 million each of the last two seasons, Blanton heads to free agency, and entering his age-32 season, he’ll certainly be looking for at least a two-year commitment from a team. The Dodgers will be after an arm or two, and there are worse options than him, but with the Dodgers flush in cash I doubt he’ll be a target.

Odds & Ends

Nate Eovaldi made 10 starts for the Dodgers prior to being dealt to Florida for Hanley Ramirez. In those ten starts, the 22-year-old righty struck out just 5.4/9 IP while walking 3.2/9 IP. He put up an FIP of 4.11 and a SIERA of 4.67.

While some are high on his stuff and potential as a #3 starter, I always saw him as a reliever due to his low strikeout numbers, and for the chance that Hanley hits again, it was a great trade in my book.

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Stephen Fife, acquired in the Trayvon Robinson deal that made no sense at the time, made just five spot-starts for the Dodgers in 2012. Everything I saw from the 26-year-old profiles as a bullpen arm who can spot-start here and there.

With an FIP of 4.14 and a SIERA of 4.67, I suppose he could be a fifth starter, but again, he seems to profile as a fungible relief arm with his lack of swing and miss stuff and the decrease in strikeouts as he’s advanced levels to face more competent hitting.

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Greg Zakwin is the founder of the site Plaschke Thy Sweater Is Argyle. Follow him on Twitter @ArgyledPlaschke.

The Dodgers are currently two games back of the Cardinals for the National League‘s final playoff spot. Los Angeles has a 8.2% (+3.8% since yesterday) chance of making the playoffs according to Cool Standings and a 8.1% (+4.1% since yesterday) chance according to Baseball Prospectus.

Joe Blanton shutdown the Rockies yesterday for the win, and Kurt Suzuki played hero for the Nationals as they won in extras.

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For today’s game, the Dodgers send Josh Beckett to the mound against Jorge De La Rosa, and they’re -235 betting favorites to win (70.1%). Additionally, AccuScore has the Dodgers winning at a 60% clip. The Cardinals send Lance Lynn to the hill against Ross Detwiler and are -135 betting favorites to win (57.4%), and AccuScore has their chances of prevailing at 50%.

If the Dodgers can get a result today, it sets up an epic showdown to end the season against the rival Giants, for better or worse.

The Dodgers are currently three games back of the Cardinals for the National League‘s final playoff spot. Los Angeles has a 3.1% (-1.4% since yesterday) chance of making the playoffs according to Cool Standings and a 4.0% (-1.7% since yesterday) chance according to Baseball Prospectus.

After Clayton Kershaw threw a gem yesterday, the Dodgers sit seven games above .500, but Edwin Jackson laid an egg for the Nationals, so the Dodgers remained three back of the playoffs with the clock getting closer to zero.

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For today’s game, the Dodgers send Joe Blanton to the mound against Tyler Chatwood, and they’re -200 betting favorites to win (66.7%). Additionally, AccuScore has the Dodgers winning at a 67% clip. The Cardinals send Kyle Lohse to the hill against Jordan Zimmermann and are -115 betting favorites to win (53.5%), and AccuScore has their chances of prevailing at 56%.

It might be surprising to some to see the Dodgers favored by so much with Blanton going, but on paper, the Rockies are a vastly inferior team with the worst pitching staff in the majors, so the Dodgers probably should be taking them to the woodshed. Of course, what this team should be doing and what they actually are doing has been a problem all year long.

Clayton Kershaw was scratched from his last start due to a hip injury, for which he received a cortisone shot. His start was taken by Joe Blanton. Clayton hopes to return and start on Tuesday.

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Kenley Jansen, barring any unforeseen setback, will pitch again this season before undergoing offseason surgery on his heart. He won’t pitch within the next ten days – at the least – as he waits for his blood-thinner medication to leave his system.

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Chad Billingsley had another platelet injection in his right elbow before seeing his season end as he was placed on the 60-day DL. Paco Rodriguez was called up and took Bills’ roster spot. Now all that remains is whether or not he ends up needing surgery. Bills will resume throwing in two weeks, after tests revealed a partial tear of the UCL in the aforementioned right elbow.

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Randy Choate took a grounder off of his pitching hand but should be fine, as he said a couple of fingers were struck but no major damage came from it. With both Scott Elbert and Ted Lilly rehabbing and Paco a rookie, the Dodgers are short on southpaws in the pen, making Choate’s continued health vital.

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Javy Guerra was placed on the 15-day DL with an oblique strain, and there’s a real chance his season is over.

—–

Adam Kennedy injured his groin and is likely out for the season, saying he “felt a pop.”

—–

If Ted Lilly – who threw a simulated game earlier in the week – returns, it will be in a relief role.

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Jerry Hairston Jr. is scheduled to undergo surgery on his ailing hip on Monday.

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Chris Withrow was transferred to the 60-day DL after a momentary call-up in order to allow Bobby Abreu to be placed back on the 40-man roster.

So Rubby De La Rosa is back with the Dodgers a little over a year after undergoing Tommy John surgery, and he certainly deserves every bit of the promotion. In the minors, he allowed 0 runs in 12 innings while striking out 12 and walking 3. More importantly, he was sitting in the mid-90s and touching the upper register when needed.

The part I find puzzling though is that the team optioned Javy Guerra to make room for him. I realize that it was either him or Shawn Tolleson, because they were the two that had options and rosters expand in 10 days, but I still find the logic confusing.

With the rest of the bullpen (sans Kenley Jansen) struggling of late, Guerra has put up 11.1 innings of scoreless relief with 13 strikeouts in his last nine appearances. The last time he allowed a run was July 26th. Similarly, Tolleson hasn’t allowed a run since July 22nd.

The predictable defense for demoting either of them is “well they have options”. Which is fine, but if we’re going with the philosophy that the Shane Victorino/Joe Blanton/Brandon League trades were worth it even if they only total a half win improvement because “it’s a dead heat”, then how logical is it to demote your hottest relievers in a bullpen that’s currently struggling to stay afloat?

Some of you know that I’ve followed and have been a fan of Rubby since he showed velocity in the complex leagues as a prospect, but there’s no guarantee he’s going to be lights out either. Point being, if you’re going to justify trading away assets for the most marginal of gains in the context of 2012, then that same attitude should apply to these roster moves as well, especially when there’s considerable dead weight on the roster that nobody would miss.

It was reported yesterday that the Player To Be Named Later in the Joe Blanton deal was Ryan O’Sullivan.

Ryan O’Sullivan, sent to #Phillies to complete Blanton deal, ranked #23 on BA list of #Dodgers prospects.

— Bill Shaikin (@BillShaikin) August 16, 2012

The 21-year-old right-handed reliever has pitched at both A-ball levels in 2012 after spending 2011 at Rookie-ball. He had a successful stint with the Loons, posting a 2.92 ERA/3.51 FIP/4.52 SIERA, thus earning a promotion to the Quakes. O’Sullivan has struggled in the new environment a bit, putting up a 3.57 ERA/4.84 FIP/4.59 SIERA. A groundball pitcher, the primary problem with his projection are his strikeout totals, which clocked in at 5.45 K/9 at Great Lakes and 6.11 K/9 at Rancho Cucamonga.

O’Sullivan wasn’t a relief arm I was concerned about losing, and quite frankly, I’m just relieved that it wasn’t Chris Withrow or something more significant.

The Dodgers shored up their rotation today by acquiring Joe Blanton from the Phillies for a player to be named later.

OFFICIAL: @dodgers today acquired starting pitcher Joe Blanton from @phillies for a player to be named later.

— Los Angeles Dodgers (@Dodgers) August 3, 2012

Blanton is owed about $2.9 million for the rest of 2012 and the Dodgers will be picking up the tab for that. Just like with the Shane Victorino trade, the PTBNL isn’t a cause for concern, as they are rarely meaningful prospects in the end.

But how about Blanton?

He should be a clear upgrade over Stephen Fife (4.65 FIP/5.20 xFIP/5.77 SIERA) and provides insurance in case Ted Lilly never quite makes it back from shoulder problems, which by his own account seems likely.

Up until 2010, Blanton had a 5.8 K/9 and 2.5 BB/9, but over the last 174.2 innings from 2011 on, he’s posted a 7.7 K/9 and a 1.4 BB/9. As a result, while his ERA is 4.59 this year, his FIP sits at a solid 3.98, while his xFIP and SIERA are both 3.39. The move from Citizens Bank Park to Dodger Stadium may not only mean he’s a significant improvement as a #5, but may make him the third best option on a staff with a lot of solid but not great pitchers.

Surprised by the peripherals? So is … uh … everybody, but the point is that he’s a solid upgrade that will help the Dodgers and might actually end up making more of a marginal wins difference than Victorino.

GM Ned Colletti says the Dodgers are far from done after landing Hanley Ramirez, as they still want a starter and a bat.

The Dodgers landed the middle-of-the-order bat they’ve been looking for in Hanley Ramirez, but general manager Ned Colletti on Wednesday said he’s still looking for a starting pitcher and another hitter.

“We’re still hunting for starting pitching. We won’t let this deal stand in the way of that,” said the general manager, who dealt starting pitcher Nathan Eovaldi and Minor League pitcher Scott McGough to the Marlins for Ramirez and left-handed reliever Randy Choate.

Completely makes sense, but who? Hence the mess of rumors to follow.

—–

Ryan Dempster Dumpster Fire Of Rumors

Yesterday, it was widely reported that the Dodgers were the front-runners for Ryan Dempster and that the team was confident they could land him.

A trade between the Dodgers and Cubs still seems “realistic,” Jon Paul Morosi of FOX Sports tweets.

The Dodgers have the upper hand in talks with the Cubs, Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com tweets.

The Dodgers are feeling increasingly confident that they can work out a deal for Dempster, ESPN.com’s Buster Olney tweets. The Cubs don’t have many alternatives given Dempster’s interest in playing for L.A. and his no-trade protection.

Today, it has been more of the same.

The Dodgers and Cubs continue talking and “might” be getting closer to a deal involving Dempster, Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports tweets.

Rival executives say the Dodgers are projecting an air of optimism about their chances of obtaining Dempster, ESPN.com’s Jayson Stark reports (on Twitter).

There seems to be a consensus on his destination, which makes sense since he’s all but said it’s the only place he’ll go at this point.

I had no problem with acquiring Dempster, because I figured he would be the upgrade that would come the cheapest for the team. That is, until I saw this tweeted:

Source: #Cubs have asked #Dodgers for Allen Webster as primary piece in Ryan Dempster talks.

— Jon Morosi (@jonmorosi) July 25, 2012

Uh … yeah … no thanks.

I thought the price was supposed to go down as they lose leverage, not up.

Allen Webster is a more advanced version of Garrett Gould with better velocity.

—–

Danny Knobler of CBS Sports reports that the availability of James Shields has drawn interest.

The Angels aren’t the only team in pursuit of James Shields. The Rangers and Dodgers have also made the Rays trade offers for the right-hander, Danny Knobler of CBSSports.com reports.

Jon Paul Morosi of Fox Sports says the Dodgers have alternatives to Dempster in … uh … vastly superior pitchers.

The Dodgers have Zack Greinke and Josh Johnson on their list in case they don’t trade for Dempster, Jon Paul Morosi of FOX Sports tweets.

Odd but okay.

Jayson Stark of ESPN reports that the Dodgers are in on basically every starting pitcher on the market.

The Dodgers are in on a number of starting pitchers, including Nolasco, Blanton, Kevin Millwood, and Jason Vargas in addition to Ryan Dempster and Matt Garza. They’ve also checked in on outfield and first base help, including Victorino and Justin Morneau.

The team is also looking at outfield and first base, which wouldn’t surprise Ken Rosenthal.

Source: #Dodgers deal for Victorino or Pence possible even if team gets Dempster along with H. Ramirez. LA has been in talks with #Phillies.

— Ken Rosenthal (@Ken_Rosenthal) July 25, 2012

—–

In terms of pitching, I’m sort of at the point now where if the Dodgers don’t swing a trade for an elite arm, I’d rather they just do nothing. If Dempster is seriously going to command at least a top five prospect in the system, why bother? With Ted Lilly on his way back, the team has five starters, and John Ely, Stephen Fife, and Webster wait in the minors.

As far as the bats go, I’ve already explained why I’d rather the team not acquire Shane Victorino, and Justin Morneau‘s 0.0 WAR line of .253/.314/.437/.751 doesn’t impress me. The only name that’s intriguing is Hunter Pence. His .267/.334/.447/.781 line isn’t impressive, but he’s a ~3 WAR player that would represent a meaningful upgrade.