Now that rosters have expanded, let the speculation on who gets the September call begin!

Pump the brakes a bit though, because unfortunately for the people who wish to see young players show their stuff: 1) the 40-man roster is full 2) guys on the 60-day DL are due to return 3) um … the team just traded away all of the top prospects that were close to contributing.

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One of the primary issues is that Rubby De La Rosa and Jerry Sands are still on the Dodgers 40-man roster, so it creates a bit of a mess in terms of roster spots. This is especially true because Ted Lilly (maybe) and Dee Gordon are set to return, which means guys will have to get designated just to fit them in. Perhaps Chad Billingsley, Kenley Jansen, or Scott Elbert could be placed on the 60-day DL, but that creates more holes, not less.

Either way, guys like Adam Kennedy, Juan Uribe, Matt Angle, Elian Herrera, and Stephen Fife might not want to get too comfortable on the 40-man, depending on what direction the team decides on. However, due to the roster crunch, those hoping for players not on the 40-man roster to get called — like John Ely, Tony Gwynn Jr., and Bobby Abreu — might be left disappointed.

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Among those who I feel could help the team immediately are Tim Federowicz, Javy Guerra, Josh Wall, and Alex Castellanos. I already went over the reasons Guerra could contribute, as I believed sending him down to begin with was foolish. Wall, despite just an average year at AAA, has the raw stuff catch fire and help stabilize a suddenly shaky bullpen. Federowicz is not as good a hitter as his .296/.371/.465/.836 line in AAA would indicate, but he’s a good defender and is an upgrade over Matt Treanor right now. Castellanos could provide right-handed thump off the bench, as his .338/.431/.610/1.041 line in AAA would somewhat indicate. I’d rather see him get a chance than continue to run Juan Rivera out there, that’s for sure.

Other possibilities on the 40-man are Scott Van Slyke and Fife. Van Slyke could do much the same as Castellanos, but I have less confidence in his bat. Still, he can hardly be a worse pinch hitting option than Uribe or Kennedy or Nick Punto. I’m not sure Fife would fit in the bullpen, but if he’s not going to get designated then he could be called up to use as a long man.

Ely, Gwynn, and Abreu could all help, but I have to think they’re long shots due to the roster crunch reasons I mentioned earlier. Personally, I would have no problem designating about a half dozen players, but the team has somehow managed to resist doing that all year, so I don’t see why they would start now. With that said, if a starter goes down with injury, Ely deserves a chance after putting up a 3.20 ERA in 168.2 innings with solid peripherals in that league. Gwynn has put up a .304/.400/.393/.793 line at AAA and I really feel like he has to be added to the 40-man and called up somehow, if for no other reason than to pinch run. If Abreu’s healthy, he could probably do what Shane Victorino is producing in left right now sans the defense, so he could be a useful bench guy.

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Assuming Billingsley, Jansen, and Elbert return from injury, and that Gordon will be back but not Lilly, I would call on Federowicz, Guerra, Wall, Castellanos, Van Slyke, Gwynn, and Abreu while designating Uribe, Angle, and Herrera.

Mike Scioscia’s Tragic Illness: Even though he’s away from home right now, I think Mike Petriello comes away from the trade with the right approach.

So how am I feeling about it today? I think Gonzalez is going to be an incredible fit in LA, especially considering that reports of his demise in Boston seem overblown (he was outstanding last year and has been very good for much of this year after a slow start) and that he never seemed to want to leave Southern California in the first place. It’s a high price to pay, but if he is what we think he is – and don’t forget, there was little available in the first base market next year, so if you’re spending money, this is how you do it – and the team becomes a consistent contender, I think it’ll be a price we can live with.

And if not? The next decade could get ugly, fast. For now, I’m cautiously optimistic, but mainly excited for the rest of the season.

I’m the same. Hopeful, but wary for reasons that I believe are legitimate. Far too many Dodgers fans pretending this is highway robbery in our favor, in my opinion.

Dodger Thoughts: Jon Weisman invokes Pedro Martinez for Delino DeShields.

The chances of De La Rosa becoming one of the greatest pitchers of all time might be slim, but De La Rosa doesn’t have to become the second Pedro to represent a major loss for the Dodgers. He could just be really good, while Gonzalez apes DeShields’ decline.

Like I said, I’m hungry for a World Series title, and I’m not saying the risk of trading De La Rosa won’t be worth it. Don’t misunderstand me: The Dodgers need a player like Gonzalez, who boosts them at their weakest position. I even believe that a move back to his Southern California roots and away from the Red Sox maelstrom could revitalize him.

All I’m saying is, short of Clayton Kershaw, the trade of any other pitcher besides De La Rosa would have left me more comfortable.

Not sure I agree with the people flipping out on him, especially if the Dodgers can’t upgrade their rotation significantly in the coming years. However, I think Adrian Gonzalez is a far better player and Rubby De La Rosa, while one of my favorites, won’t get to ace level.

Sports Illustrated: Jay Jaffe acknowledges the risk and the reward, saying that if nothing else it makes the season compelling.

All in all, it’s a dizzying deal that could affect not only the outcome of this year’s NL playoff races, but also could turn the Dodgers into the NL West’s powerhouse for years to come, with an enviable middle of the order starring Kemp, Gonzalez, Ramirez and Ethier. Or it could blow up in the team’s collective face, saddling the Dodgers with unproductive players signed to long-term deals, and hampering their roster flexibility much as it did these Red Sox.

Given their surrender of two top young arms, and the massive savings — and saving face — that the deal offered Boston, the Dodgers should have come away with far more than $12 million in salary discounts. That they didn’t puts virtually all of the risk on them, but it makes for a compellingly aggressive play in a playoff race that remains wide open.

True Blue LA: Eric Stephen notes that the team is headed for the luxury tax.

Dodgers Now: Stan Kasten says they aren’t maxed out yet though.

If the Dodgers can add $260 million to their payroll in one trade — and close to a half-billion dollars in four months — is there a limit to their spending?

“Somewhere, I suppose,” Chairman Mark Walter said Saturday.

And where might that limit be?

“I haven’t found it yet,” President Stan Kasten said. “I’ll let you know when we get there.”

Not sure how much of that is rhetoric, but I think we’ll see in the 2013 off-season.

FanGraphs: Dave Cameron thinks it doesn’t make sense from a baseball perspective but that it might make sense if the Dodgers make a deep run into the playoffs due to financials.

From a purely baseball standpoint, this investment doesn’t make sense. Gonzalez isn’t valuable enough to make him worth taking on the albatross contracts of Crawford and Beckett, and the Dodgers almost certainly could have gotten a better bang for their buck in free agency this winter. However, making moves this winter won’t get people interested in the Dodgers in the same way that a deep playoff run this year will.

I’m getting a lot of similar comments on Twitter, so I know this isn’t a rare opinion, but I have to wonder how legitimate the train of thought is. Dodgers fans show up regardless of how the team is doing, and the only reason attendance plummeted last year was because of a fan boycott of Frank McCourt. Even with all the turmoil, they were sixth in attendance last year, and this year they’re already back up to third. As such, I don’t buy the argument that they needed to do this during the season to make the playoffs otherwise fans wouldn’t come back and they wouldn’t make money. If the tens of millions from potential playoff revenue is going to make or break a team with billions of dollars looming, then there are bigger problems here.

Also, I don’t buy that this is to create buzz for a media deal. We’re all speculating, but logically I don’t see why cable companies, who negotiate deals like this all the time, would be swayed off their valuation due to a small sample size and not take into account the big 15-to-25 year picture. It’s already rumored to be in the $8 billion range, so how much higher could it go? Maybe they are that dumb, I dunno, but it seems iffy to assume so.

There’s no getting around the fact that the Dodgers likely just paid $20 for a gallon of milk. Given the prices everyone else is paying for milk, that seems pretty silly. If you happen to have lots of $20 bills and no milk, however, and there’s only one guy selling milk in your immediate vicinity, maybe you just complain about price gouging and hand over the $20. Depending on just how many $20s the Dodgers ownership has, this might not end up being quite as nuts as it looks on the surface.

Or, maybe I’m just over-thinking all of this, and the Dodgers just made a horrible, horrible trade. I’m honestly not sure.

Maybe, but I can’t see this trade destroying the team down the road. It might make for an inferior roster, but as long as they continue to spend, the team will be competitive. I’d just rather have to go through as little big money decline phases as possible.

ESPN: Buster Olney names his winners and losers … with the Dodgers on both.

Winners: The Dodgers of 2012

They are markedly better today than they were before this deal. Adrian Gonzalez is perfect for their lineup, their lineup balance, their defense and their ballpark, and he knows the division from his many years with the Padres. Beckett might be energized, and he gets to shift out of one of the best-hitting divisions to one of the worst.

Winners: Magic Johnson, Stan Kasten and the rest of the Dodgers’ ownership group

In less than four months, these owners have managed to completely rebrand the franchise, and, even if the Dodgers don’t make the playoffs this year, they’ve set themselves up for a major bounce forward in attendance and interest and team success in 2013. The city might throw them a parade even if they don’t win the World Series because, ding-dong, the Frank McCourt era is over.

Losers: The Dodgers of 2017

The team’s stunning spending spree feels good today, but Los Angeles has set itself up to have a roster loaded with aging stars in about five years — Matt Kemp, Gonzalez, Crawford and Andre Ethier all have contracts that run through that season. By then, the Dodgers’ farm system should be replenished, and the club’s ownership should have the resources to pave over that type of problem in the way the Yankees have — and, in any event, Dodgers fans won’t have to worry about that for a while.

ESPN: Keith Law takes a good now and bad later approach as well.

This deal could end up looking good for both sides, better for the Dodgers in the very short term but much better for the Red Sox in the long term. Boston enters this winter with a new financial lease on life, freeing the Sox up to spend in a weak free-agent market or perhaps to take on a large contract someone else would like to move (Cliff Lee? Justin Upton?).

They’re also looking at a pretty interesting group of position-player prospects racing up the system, led by Xander Bogaerts, who has improved his defense at shortstop this year and might defy earlier expectations and stay at the position. That potential for an inexpensive core should help Boston avoid a similar tangle of large contracts in the near future, just at a point when the Dodgers are facing a financial quagmire and roster crunch of their own.

Baseball executives are chiming in on the trade, basically questioning what the Dodgers are doing.

Rival exec on #Dodgers: “If you had $250M to spend, is this how you’d do it?”

— Ken Rosenthal (@Ken_Rosenthal) August 25, 2012

Rival execs are wondering why LADs didn’t simply say to BOS: We’ll take your bad contracts, but we’re not giving you any prospects of note.

— Buster Olney (@Buster_ESPN) August 25, 2012

NL exec view:”The Dodgers so wanted Gonzalez they took Crawford and Beckett’s money and traded two great arms to get him.”

— Peter Gammons (@pgammo) August 25, 2012

While I don’t necessarily disagree with their assessment, one has to wonder how much of this is legit and how much of this is just being jealous.

The Dodgers finalized a trade today that will send Rubby De La Rosa, Allen Webster, Jerry Sands, James Loney, and Ivan De Jesus to the Red Sox for Adrian Gonzalez, Carl Crawford, Josh Beckett, Nick Punto, and Cash.

I gave my initial reaction to the deal yesterday, but after an in-depth analysis, did anything change?

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Adrian Gonzalez

The Dodgers are paying ~$130 million for six years and a month of his services. Accounting for inflation over the course of the contract, every win will come out to ~$5 million, so the Dodgers are paying for about 26 WAR or 4.2 WAR per year.

Will he be worth it? I’m quite confident he will be, despite issues that others have concerns about.

In 2011 with the Red Sox, he hit .338/.410/.548/.957, posting a ~6.5 WAR season. He got off to a slow start in 2012, however, and thus only has a .300/.343/.469/.812 line. However, he has come on of late, and he projects to finish the year on a .301/.369/.504/.873 tear, so I don’t think he’s at the start of a precipitous decline. The primary concern is that his career 10.7 BB% has dipped to 5.9%, and it will need to rebound for him to live up to his usual standard. With that said, his batting projection puts his OPS around .860 or so, which presumes a gain in walk rate.

His fielding has never been in doubt, as he is a plus defender across all advanced metrics and I don’t think anybody would argue with it. He does lack foot speed though, which is why his baserunning total comes in low.

That’s not to say there’s minimal risk though, which makes sense, since he wouldn’t have been let go otherwise. He’s in his age-30 season right now, and aging curves tell us that he’s likely to regress over the course of his contract, as the mid-30s are generally the danger area. On the upside, I don’t see a reason to be concerned about injuries, as he has never played in less than 156 games in a full season.

Factoring everything above, A-Gon comes out to about a 5 WAR player, and he figures to be worth around 27 WAR after accounting for age regression. While he won’t be providing much surplus value beyond what he’s being paid by the Dodgers, he should be well worth the acquisition, especially considering the barren first base market and the lack of internal options. The A-Gon part of this deal is cause of excitement.

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Carl Crawford

The Dodgers are paying ~$105 million for five years and a month of his services. Accounting for inflation over the course of the contract, every win will come out to ~$5 million, so the Dodgers are paying for about 21 WAR or 4.1 WAR per year.

Unlike A-Gon, where I have trouble seeing how he’s not worth it, I have trouble seeing how Crawford will even get anywhere close to worth it.

For the past two seasons, Crawford has been … uh … a mess. He’s been worth a total of around 0.5 WAR, which needless to say doesn’t bode well for his 4.1 WAR goal. Even if you completely believe that his skills are intact, his body throws a sizable wrench into the equation to say the least, and it doesn’t help then that he may miss a few months of next season. He was projected to post a .283/.323/.446/.769 line for the rest of 2012, which is quite generous since his actual line has been .260/.292/.419/.711 for 2011 and 2012. For the projection, I put him around a .780 OPS, which is almost what he posted in his last few years with the Rays.

On the basepaths, despite his basestealing ability, he’s never been a plus baserunner, but he does clock in on the positive side of the ledger due to his speed. His defense will probably generate the biggest debate, as it was once a plus tool, but it has since regressed to average at best across the advanced metrics due to injury or whatever else. Personally though, I think he should benefit from the bigger spaces in Dodger Stadium, so he should return to form. However, it would be dishonest to just grant him plus status after two clear years of regression, so I made him just good instead of elite.

Like Gonzalez, Crawford is in his age-30 season and will regress over the course of his contract, including the dreaded mid-30s. Unlike Gonzalez, there’s ample reason to worry about Crawford’s health, and his projected playing time reflects that, clocking in at ~550 plate appearances.

Factoring everything above, Crawford comes out to about a 2.9 WAR player, and he figures to be worth around 12 WAR after accounting for age regression.

So he should be worth a bit more than half his contract, and when that contract totals in excess of $100 million that burns quite a bit. Unlike at first base, the options in the outfield, either short-term or long-term, to get better value were plentiful. Therefore, I can’t see how anybody would be excited about taking him on. The “he’s better than Juan Rivera” argument only works for this year because the Dodgers would have options in the offseason, and since Crawford won’t be playing this year there’s really no defense for this. I’m assuming a lot in his favor as it is, and if he’s right he should be a decent player for the team until late in the deal, but he certainly won’t be worth what the Dodgers are paying him unless lighting strikes.

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Josh Beckett

The Dodgers are paying ~$35 million for two years and a month of his services. Accounting for inflation over the course of the contract, every win will come out to ~$4.75 million, so the Dodgers are paying for about 7.5 WAR or 3.5 WAR per year.

I’m actually more confident that Crawford will make meaningful contributions than Beckett for reasons that go beyond statistics, so needless to say, I’m skeptical about him earning his keep.

In 2012, Beckett has a 5.23 ERA, 4.27 FIP, 4.39 xFIP, and 4.28 SIERA. That’s about the profile of Bud Norris of the Astros at the moment … if Norris was set to make $16 million annually.

The reason I only mention 2012 is this report by Kevin Goldstein of Baseball Prospectus:

Goldstein says that Beckett’s 70 fastball has turned into a 55/60. His once-biting curve has lost a similar amount of stuff: Goldstein reports that he would be “leery” of putting a 60 rating on it and might call it a 50-plus. His cutter, he explains, is at best a 40. Given how often he throws it, the cutter could be something of an Achilles’ heel for Beckett going forward.

Goldstein is not terribly optimistic about Beckett’s performance going forward and grades him as a no. 4 or no. 5 starter going forward.

That scouting report is backed by fastball velocity that has dropped from 93.8 MPH for his career to 91.6 MPH, and a strikeout rate that has gone from a career 22.2% to 17.2%. I’m not sure how anybody could reasonably expect him to bounce back to 4-5 WAR levels with that profile.

Like Gonzalez and Crawford, Beckett isn’t young. He’s in his age-32 season, is showing signs of decline, and is under contract into his mid-30s. There’s reason to worry about injury too, as he missed significant time (60-day DL) two years ago with a back strain and was placed on the DL for shoulder inflammation this year. Since he’ll likely only get to ~160 innings this year, I think giving him ~175 is generous enough.

Factoring everything above, Beckett comes out to about a 2.1 WAR player, and he figures to be worth around 4 WAR after accounting for age regression.

Like Crawford, he projects to be worth a bit more than half what he’s being paid, but it burns a lot less because it’s only a two year commitment after 2012. Of course, there’s opportunity cost here as well, because there’s always bargain options that can provide 1.5 to 2.5 WAR for a lot less than what Beckett will be paid, as Chris Capuano and the likes have proven. I suppose there’s upside hidden deep in Beckett’s profile in that maybe he regains his stuff, but I can’t bet on it due to his age. Besides, both his numbers and the scouting match each other, and that’s usually a recipe for accuracy. Hope for the best, but I wouldn’t expect anything better than a #4 starter.

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Nick Punto

The Dodgers are paying ~$2 million for one year and a month of his services. Accounting for inflation over the course of the contract, every win will come out to ~$4.5 million, so the Dodgers are paying for about 0.5 WAR or 0.4 WAR per year.

Don’t think I need a table for this one, as it’s purely to give the Dodgers a utility guy, I believe. Punto is at .200/.301/.272/.573 for 2012 and is projected to hit .229/.327/.271/.598 the rest of the way, which matches his age profile and career hitting ability. He’s above average on the bases and can play second, third, and short, where he grades out as a plus defender at every position.

His value on the bench is contingent on the Dodgers finding guys that can hit because he’s purely a defensive replacement or a spot starter. Still, he’s a solid utility guy because of his defense and versatility. He’ll be serviceable, which is all he’s being paid for, so it should be fine.

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Rubby De La Rosa

As a starter last year, he posted a 3.71 ERA/3.87 FIP/3.55 xFIP/3.85 SIERA with a 23.6 K% and a 12.2 BB% before succumbing to Tommy John surgery. After rehabbing for a year, he’s back and so is the velocity, so it seems the only thing lost was a year of development. Regardless, he has plus velocity and two potential swing-and-miss off-speed pitches in the change and slider. He’s rotation quality right now, and with command improvement, I don’t see why he couldn’t be a #2 or #3 rotation option.

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Allen Webster

After being demoted to the bullpen early in 2012, he may now be every bit the prospect that Rubby or Zach Lee is for the reasons Kevin Goldstein of Baseball Prospectus details here:

“It’s all there,” said a National League scout who was taken off his coverage to see the team. “When everything is going, he has three average-to-plus pitches and knows what to do with them.” The scout noted that Webster’s game has matured, as well. “He knows he has a really good—and potentially special—changeup, but he’s not over-relying on it anymore,” the scout explained. “It’s like he finally figured out that setting that pitch up with 92-94 mph heat is the best way to go about it, and his curveball has improved as well. He used to get over the ball and it wouldn’t finish, but now it’s breaking through the zone much better.”

His ceiling seems to be in the #2 range as well, with #3 to #4 a more likely destination. He should test the waters at the MLB level this year, and could be ready in 2013.

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Jerry Sands

For his career, his line at AAA Albuquerque is .291/.363/.557/.921 … but it’s Albuquerque. Still, I like his chances of becoming a major league contributor, though I’m not sure he’ll be worthy of holding down a left field spot for a team like the Red Sox. There’s a shot he becomes a regular, but I see him as more of a platoon guy or temporary starter as opposed to a long-term fit there.

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Ivan De Jesus

A .301/.354/.416/.770 line at Albuquerque paired with his .231/.282/.277/.559 career line with the Dodgers doesn’t bode well for him. Furthermore, while he can play second, short, and third, he’s only above average at second, so I’m not sure he even fits as a utility guy.

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James Loney

He’s been worth 0 to -1 WAR this season while making $6.5 million and he’s a free agent to be. Bye.

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So the Dodgers are paying ~$272 million to get the four mentioned players from the Red Sox, and the Red Sox will be kicking in about ~$12 million back to the Dodgers. So the team is paying for ~55 WAR of production, but is getting about ~43 WAR in value (~$212 million). As such, just by taking on the contracts alone, they figure to be looking at a surplus value around -$50 million. Then factor in the two top prospects, one solid prospect, a fringe prospect, and the corpse of James Loney, and you’re looking at quite a deficit to overcome, especially if any of them develop and hit their ceilings.

On the other hand, this undoubtedly makes the Dodgers better in the short-term, perhaps by as much as 7 or 8 wins in 2013. It should solidify the squad as a playoff favorite for this year and the next two years, perhaps even longer than that, depending on the decline phases of Crawford/Gonzalez.

While I understand that fans are excited by the prospects of that immediate improvement, I just have to wonder whether the Dodgers couldn’t do better if given ~$260 million to spend and the prospect package in question. Of the players received, only Adrian Gonzalez really fills a hole that couldn’t have been addressed in either 2013 or 2014. Then there’s the potential problems with payroll flexibility and the luxury tax that I’ve mentioned before. Also, as you can see through Jay Jaffe‘s work here, they’re really hemmed up in the short-term payroll-wise, and they now have $90 million sewn up in four players through 2017, which unfortunately doesn’t even include Clayton Kershaw yet.

As such, fans should surely enjoy the ride this year and in the immediate future, but it’s easy to justify significant concern over the long-term future of the roster, as all the risk in this deal is being taken by the Dodgers.

The Dodgers have acquired Adrian Gonzalez, Josh Beckett, Carl Crawford, Nick Punto, and Cash from the Red Sox for Rubby De La Rosa, Allen Webster, Jerry Sands, James Loney, and Ivan De Jesus, according to Jon Paul Morosi of Fox Sports.

Source confirms @gordonedes report: #Dodgers “close” to obtaining Adrian Gonzalez, Josh Beckett, Carl Crawford, Nick Punto. @mlbonfox

— Jon Morosi (@jonmorosi) August 24, 2012

Source: #Dodgers have agreed to send Allen Webster, James Loney, Jerry Sands, Ivan De Jesus, and Rubby De La Rosa to #RedSox. @mlbonfox

— Jon Morosi (@jonmorosi) August 24, 2012

Source: If #Dodgers – #RedSox blockbuster occurs — and it is “close” — Boston would send some cash to LA. @mlbonfox

— Jon Morosi (@jonmorosi) August 24, 2012

I’ll have a more detailed update on this trade later on tomorrow, but as of right now, I’m floored, honestly.

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My first impression though is to say that the trade isn’t for the better of the Dodgers overall. Yes, it makes them a better team immediately, but they likely now have limited financial flexibility for years to come. Ironically, that’s the reason the Red Sox did this deal to begin with.

Before calling me an idiot and asking me what the significance of that payroll worry is because the Dodgers now have money, maybe read this first on the Dodgers payroll and the luxury tax.

Additionally, the Dodgers are sending two top prospects to the Red Sox, both of which could contribute soon, in Rubby and Webster. Sands is certainly not a regular at this point, but he’s ready to try now, and he could develop into one. De Jesus could be a decent utility guy and Loney is whatever.

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The contract obligations the Dodgers are assuming total in excess of $250 million AFTER this year is over, and the team is giving up two of their best prospects and another solid one, so unless the cash coming back is significant, then this probably leaves the team better off in the short-term but worse off in the long-term.

Surely this drastically makes the team better now, but it also sets the Dodgers up to have an old, injury prone, and expensive roster going forward. I sure hope the Dodgers win now, because if they don’t, it could get ugly in a hurry.

The quote found in the title basically sums up Don Mattingly‘s logic when he was asked about Andre Ethier‘s struggles against lefties, as reported by Eric Stephen of True Blue LA.

Part of the struggles for Ethier have been against left-handed pitchers, against whom Ethier is hitting .218/.282/.315 this season. But don’t expect Mattingly to pinch hit for Ethier in late-game situations any time soon.

“He’s one of our guys. It’s like pinch hitting for Matt if he struggled against righties. It’s the way it is. If we fall with Matt, we fall,” Mattingly said. “We’ll fall with Andre, unless I have an option that says, ‘I’ve got to do this.’ But most of the time I don’t have that option.”

What about the right-handed Jerry Sands, who is hitting .362 with 13 home runs in 44 games since July 1 in Triple A? It doesn’t sound like he would be much of an option either.

“As we get into September we’ll have a few extra guys, we’ll be able to do some things. Every team is going to have guys who are options,” Mattingly said. “If they were tremendous options they wouldn’t be in Triple A.”

I’m not going to pretend I know more about Jerry Sands than Mattingly or the Dodgers organization. I don’t. They surely have inside information on all their players. However, one just has to call bullshit on this specific bit of logic, don’t we?

Ethier has a .218/.282/.315/.597 line against lefties in 2012 and is .238/.298/.351/.650 against them for his career. Juan Uribe, over the last TWO YEARS, has a .196/.260/.287/.546 line. He is currently 0-for-August.

So to say that Sands wouldn’t be a better option for the team at some point … it’s just ridiculous.

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1) Replacement options in AAA have already proven that they can hit better than the level of the players up for replacement.

2) If they can’t prove anything at AAA and thus can’t get a call to the MLB, then where are they supposed to prove themselves?

3) There are never better options stuck at AAA than in the MLB? A.J. Ellis says hi to Rod Barajas. Paul LoDuca sends his wishes to Charles Johnson. Ad nauseam.

4) Having greater knowledge doesn’t always mean it’s right, nor does it mean it’s free of bias.

5) It doesn’t have anything to do with contracts and egos? Just performance? That’s why Matt Kemp and Andre Ethier had playing time stolen by Juan Pierre, Luis Gonzalez, and Andruw Jones, right? I believe the organization.

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Just terrible, seriously. Please find a better excuse or something, because I hate to believe that’s the actual line of thinking.

Rah rah rah, let’s trade everything to win now but let typical backwards thinking get in the way of making moves that would actually help the team do so when it comes to roster construction.

Awesome.

Man, I’m never going two weeks between these posts again. Anyway, most of the Dodger minor-league affiliates were mediocre the last two weeks. The Ogden Raptors scored the most runs this week with 83, thanks to Jeremy Rathjen, Corey Seager and Eric Smith. They also gave up the most runs this week at 94.

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Albuquerque Isotopes (7-8)

Runs Scored: 81
Runs Allowed: 69

Players Of The Week

July 23: Jerry Sands – OF/1B
July 30: Jerry Sands – OF/1B

Sands has been one of the hottest hitters in the minor leagues for the past couple weeks. For the week of July 23, he went 12-for-34 (.353) with three home runs, 11 RBI, a double, and five runs scored. He earned the Pacific Coast League Player Of The Week, as Sands hit two grand slams in the second game of the July 29 doubleheader. For the week of July 30, he went 11-for-25 (.440) with three home runs, 10 RBI, and three runs scored. His hot hitting earned him a call-up to Los Angeles.

Pitchers Of The Week

July 23: John Ely – RHP
July 30:  Josh Wall – RHP

Ely had a couple solid outings for the Isotopes: 13 1/3 IP, 10 H, 4 R, 2 ER, 1 BB, 11 K. He has a 3.42 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, and a 9.2 K/9 on the season. Wall made three appearances last week and saved two games for the Isotopes: 2 2/3 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 1 K.

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Chattanooga Lookouts (7-6)

Runs Scored: 65
Runs Allowed: 54

Players Of The Week

July 23: Rafael Ynoa – 2B
July 30: J.T. Wise – 1B

Ynoa won his fourth award of the season, but his numbers were less than impressive: 5-for-20 (.250) with two doubles, two RBI, and seven walks. The Lookouts were one-hit twice and no-hit once in the week of July 23, so that accounts for the poor offensive week. Wise had a much better week: 10-for-23 (.435) with a home run, 10 RBI, three doubles, six runs scored, and seven walks.

Pitchers Of The Week

July 23: Zach Lee – RHP
July 30: Matt Magill – RHP

Lee had a nice outing on July 27 to earn just his second award of the season: 5 IP, 3 H, 1 R, 2 BB, 4 K. He hasn’t fared well in Double-A thus far, but he is just 20 years old. Next season will be the true test of his prospect status. Magill had one of his best outings of the season despite giving up three runs: 7 1/3 IP, 5 H, 3 R, 0 ER, 1 BB, 12 K. This is Magill’s fourth honor of the year.

—–

Rancho Cucamonga Quakes (6-6)

Runs Scored: 81
Runs Allowed: 75

Players Of The Week

July 23: Leon Landry – OF
July 30: Bobby Coyle – OF & Joc Pederson – OF

Landry had a fantastic week before being traded to Seattle with Logan Bawcom for Brandon League: 14-for-30 (.467) with two home runs, five (!) triples, a double, six RBI, and nine runs scored. That performance earned him California League Player Of The Week honors. He finishes his Quake career with a .328/.358/.559 triple slash with eight home runs, 51 RBI, 26 doubles, 15 triples, 63 runs scored, and 20 stolen bases. The next week, Coyle and Pederson carried the Quakes offense. Coyle went 10-for-25 (.400), with a home run, double, triple, and four RBI. Pederson didn’t get many hits, but he walked a bunch: 5-for-20 (.250) with a home run, double, triple, five RBI, eight runs scored, nine walks, and three stolen bases.

Pitchers Of The Week

July 23: Rubby De La Rosa – RHP
July 30: Andres Santiago – RHP

Well, well, well, Mr. De La Rosa, so nice to see you. De La Rosa made his season debut with the Quakes and showed no ill effects from his Tommy John surgery: 3 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 3 K. He also had a fine performance in his second appearance, but it was cut short because of discomfort in his groin (thankfully it wasn’t his elbow). Santiago had a great outing for the Quakes — and it’d be his last at the level because he was promoted to Double-A Chattanooga: 7 IP, 3 H, 0 R, 2 BB, 10 K. Santiago has taken the award four of the last five weeks and has won it five times overall this season.

—–

Great Lakes Loons (3-10)

Runs Scored: 58
Runs Allowed: 78

Players Of The Week

July 23: Pratt Maynard – C
July 30: O’Koyea Dickson – 1B/DH

Maynard, who started the season in a terrible slump, has picked it up of late. For the week of July 23, he went 6-for-20 (.300) with three doubles, two RBI, and three walks. Dickson has been mired in a slump for most of the second half, but he had a nice week: 8-for-26 (.308) with three home runs, five RBI, and three runs scored.

Pitchers Of The Week

July 23: Duke Von Schamann – RHP
July 30: Greg Wilborn – LHP

The Dodgers might have found themselves a gem in Von Schamann, who earns his third award of the season — all since being promoted to Great Lakes. He had his best outing of the season so far during the week of July 23: 8 IP, 4 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 1 BB, 2 K. He doesn’t strike guys out, but he gets them out. He’ll have to miss more bats as he moves up the ladder, but it’s hard to argue with what he’s doing at the moment. Wilborn had a nice week for the Loons in the following period: 11 2/3 IP, 6 H, 4 R, 4 ER, 5 BB, 12 K. Wilborn has been all around the minors this season, and he’s not a prospect at this point.

—–

Ogden Raptors (7-6)

Runs Scored: 83
Runs Allowed: 94

Players Of The Week

July 23: Jeremy Rathjen – OF
July 30: Corey Seager – SS

Rathjen, who fell in the draft because of injury concerns, continues to mash for the Raptors. For the week of July 23, he went 10-for-21 (.476) with three RBI, seven runs scored, and eight walks. Seager hit his first professional home runs last week, as he went 8-for-24 (.333) with three home runs, nine RBI, five runs scored, and seven walks. Jesus Valdez (.346, four home runs) and Eric Smith (.455, 10 walks) were the runners-up.

Pitchers Of The Week

July 23: Ross Stripling – RHP
July 30: Owen Jones – RHP

Stripling is having no problems with the Pioneer League, but the Dodgers are limiting his innings. He had a short but effective outing: 3 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 4 K. Jones, the Dodgers 19th-round draft pick in 2012, had a solid week coming out of the bullpen for the Raptors: 3 IP, 3 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 0 BB, 5 K.

—–

Arizona League Dodgers (3-6)

Runs Scored: 47
Runs Allowed: 54

Players Of The Week

July 23: Cory Embree – OF
July 30: Yasiel Puig – OF

Embree had a modest week for the AZL Dodgers: 5-for-12 (.417) with a double, four RBI, and three walks. Puig, making his professional debut, went 5-for-16 (.313) with two home runs, five RBI, two triples, and four runs scored.

Pitchers Of The Week

July 23: Jonathan Martinez – RHP
July 30: Zachary Bird – RHP

Martinez had a fantastic outing on July 24: 5 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 2 BB, 9 K. The 18-year-old is having a lot of success in the Arizona League and is someone to keep an eye on going forward. Bird, the Dodgers ninth-round pick this year, had the best outing of his young career: 5 IP, 3 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 5 K.

—–

Dominican Summer League Dodgers (3-7)

Runs Scored: 48
Runs Allowed: 61

Players Of The Week

July 23: Jeffry Rojas – SS
July 30: Melvin Santana – 2B

Rojas only played three games, but he made them count by going 6-for-10 (.600) with a double and an RBI. Santana, making his fourth appearance on this list, went 6-for-17 (.353) with a home run, a double, four RBI, three runs scored, and two stolen bases.

Pitchers Of The Week

July 23: Jose Agusto Diaz – RHP
July 30: Wascar Teodo – RHP

Diaz, 21, earned his first award of the season by throwing six quality innings on July 27: 6 IP, 5 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 0 BB, 5 K. Teodo did just a little better than Diaz this past week: 6 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 2 BB, 7 K. The 18-year-old is throwing well for the DSL Dodgers.

The Dodgers announced moments ago that Jerry Sands would be getting the call from AAA and that Tony Gwynn Jr. has been designated for assignment.

OFFICIAL: @dodgers today designatedTony Gwynn Jr. for assignment and recalled outfielder/first baseman Jerry Sands from AAA Albuquerque.

— Los Angeles Dodgers (@Dodgers) August 6, 2012

Sands has done his part to deserve the shot, hitting .286/.368/.521/.889 at AAA, including a BABIP around league average. He’s hitting lefties and righties about equally well, so putting him down as a platoon guy seems a bit asinine, and unlike last year, when he posted a 1.153 OPS at Albuquerque and a .659 OPS away, this year he’s at .964 and .826, respectively.

It’s also worth noting that even if you don’t believe Sands will be a regular in the future, he has put up a .248/.329/.381/.710 line in his MLB career, which puts him 60 points higher than James Loney and Juan Rivera in 2012.

That fact happens to be exactly what I don’t understand about getting rid of Gwynn though.

Mike Petriello doesn’t mind ditching Gwynn because he doesn’t think Gwynn has any utility left for the team. While that’s true, I’m not quite sure what utility the others have either.

Designate plus-plus defender and fourth outfielder, keep two mediocre 1B who are only useful in a platoon and all around useless 3B.

— Chad Moriyama (@ChadMoriyama) August 6, 2012

I guess my argument is less that the team needs Gwynn and more that it needs Rivera, Loney, Juan Uribe, and Adam Kennedy less.

Gwynn’s .232/.276/.293/.570 line is terrible, without a doubt, but he’s still a plus-plus defender that’s better than anybody in the Dodgers outfield by a long shot. The type of player he is has value as a pinch runner, as a defensive replacement, and as an emergency starter — even if they can’t hit.

What utility do Loney, Rivera, Uribe, and Kennedy have? To me, they aren’t even useful off the bench as a pinch hitter (maybe Rivera).

Tony Gwynn Jr.: career .305/.372/.405 hitter in 147 PA as pinch-hitter. Between that and defense, should have been kept instead of Uribe

— Jay Jaffe (@jay_jaffe) August 6, 2012

Dodgers had (at least) four guys who are let’s say offensively challenged (Uribe, Loney, Rivera, Gwynn). They cut the best defender

— Eric Stephen (@truebluela) August 6, 2012

Regardless, it’s hard to get worked up about it, as we’re likely talking about 50-75 PA for Gwynn and whatever amount of defensive replacement appearances he would have got, but I just disagree that moving Gwynn instead of one of the other four was in the best interests of the Dodgers roster.

The Dodgers got … positive news on a potentially serious injury? That truly is a shocker.

The Dodgers got some much-needed good news on Thursday, when an MRI on Andre Ethier’s strained left oblique showed no swelling.

The right fielder is listed as day to day and likely will avoid a trip to the disabled list.

“Yesterday I assumed we were going to be in a DL situation,” an optimistic manager Don Mattingly said. “But really the docs looked at it and didn’t see any swelling, so it really couldn’t be any better.”

Ethier, who was hopeful he could be back in a couple days Wednesday night, didn’t hit on Thursday. Test results showed no reason for a platelet-rich plasma injection, and Mattingly said he’s not sure what the approach is going to be in the next few days. However, he remained upbeat and said the news was as good as it could be.

They’ll probably play it safe for a while, but obviously that’s excellent news.

Well, except for Ivan De Jesus, who was optioned for Scott Van Slyke.

In need of an extra outfielder with Andre Ethier day to day with a strained left oblique, the Dodgers recalled Scott Van Slyke and optioned infielder Ivan De Jesus to Triple-A Albuquerque.

Jerry Sands must truly be in the shitter.

The Dodgers lost their best player on Monday night as Matt Kemp was placed on the disabled list with a left hamstring strain. The news was pretty much expected since before the game, when manager Don Mattingly, Kemp, and the training staff had a lengthy meeting with Dr. Neal ElAttrache about Kemp’s MRI results, which confirmed a left hamstring strain.

“It’s a mild strain, but the doctor said if you do it again, it can go from a grade one to a grade two, and then you’re talking four weeks,” Mattingly said. “Now he has a chance to get healthy, and make sure he doesn’t have any long-term effects from this thing.”

While this is a blow, I think most can agree it’s better for him to get healthy now than to risk wrecking himself, as he admitted that it was affecting his play.

He admitted he’s been playing at half-speed since injuring the leg last Saturday in Chicago. He reinjured it trying to leg out a ground ball Sunday and was removed from the game.

“I’ve been a little scared to do certain things,” he said. “I felt it in there a little bit. I just wanted to help my team any way possible, but I was babying it a little. I came to that realization.”

Perhaps the best part about all of this is that Andre Ethier may see time in center field.

Gwynn will be the primary center fielder with Kemp on the shelf, which Mattingly doesn’t think will be more than 15 days. But Mattingly also wants to make sure Gwynn doesn’t get overused, and said he would use Andre Ethier in center field for “two or three games” with Kemp out.

Yikes.

As an alternative though, why can’t Jerry Sands and Scott Van Slyke play first base? The defense is a downgrade, but James Loney still isn’t hitting.

—–

In other injury news, Juan Uribe is out.

The sudden wave of Dodgers injuries continued Monday when they had to put third baseman Juan Uribe on the 15-day disabled list with recurring left wrist soreness.

The Dodgers replaced him by purchasing the contract of Triple-A Albuquerque utility man Elian Herrera and designating outfielder Trent Oeltjen for assignment.

I’m not sure why Elian Herrera has vaulted over Trent Oeltjen all of a sudden, but it’s probably inconsequential.

What happens this week?

MLB owners will vote on the three finalists, most likely Tuesday. Approval of all three is expected to be a formality.

Then what?

McCourt and his advisers hold a modified auction, behind closed doors, most likely starting Wednesday. The goal is to pick a winner this week and close the transaction by April 30, the day he must pay his ex-wife $131 million in a divorce settlement.

A relief to everybody involved, surely.

As far as the remaining bidders go, what about Stan Kroenke‘s involvement with the NFL?

If Kroenke buys the Dodgers, would he move the Rams back to L.A.?

Not right away, and maybe not ever. The NFL controls the Los Angeles market, so Kroenke would be in violation of the league’s cross-ownership rules as soon as he bought the Dodgers. The NFL let him transfer ownership of his two Denver teams to his son, but the league has declined to assure MLB that Kroenke could own the Dodgers and the Rams in separate markets, or that the Rams could move to L.A.

Kroenke would not need the Rams in L.A. to launch a regional sports network centered on the Dodgers. His Denver cable channel features the Nuggets and Avalanche.

The NFL has long coveted the Dodger Stadium parking lot as the site for a football stadium. However, the NFL would be reluctant to approve a stadium there if McCourt retained ownership of the property, according to a person familiar with the league’s thinking.

Daniel Kaplan of SportsBusiness Journal says the NFL would move quickly on a cross ownership ruling.

Goodell on Kroenke and LA, says league considers LA league market. Says if kroenke owns the dodgers it would raise cross ownership issues

Goodell says he told bud selig league would move quickly to decide kroenke cross ownership issue

As a fan of the St. Louis Rams, this would be sort of awesome if it happens, but reading between the lines, it doesn’t seem all that likely.

Getting back to the bidders, Shaikin provides positive news on Steven Cohen.

If Cohen is a major player in hedge funds, how concerned is MLB about the ongoing federal investigation into insider trading in that industry?

Cohen was cleared in an MLB background check. Although four of his current or former employees have been accused of insider trading, neither Cohen nor his company has been charged or indicted.

Ron Geffner, a former federal prosecutor and securities investigator, said there can be no certainty about the results of an ongoing probe. However, he said, the investigation has gone on for several years, and the involvement of four of Cohen’s hundreds of employees does not in itself make a case against Cohen.

“If the government had a strong case, they would salivate at the opportunity to bring an action against a high-profile person,” said Geffner, a partner at the New York law firm Sadis and Goldberg.

Well that’s good news, given that he’s the favorite, according to everybody. Molly Knight included.

Handicap guesstimating Dodgers ownership race: Cohen group 1:2, Magic Johnson group 3:1, Kroenke 8:1.

I’m coming to terms with it, slowly.

—–

Jerry Sands was sent down, which was expected.

Jerry Sands, who followed up a huge September with a disappointing Spring Training, was optioned to the Minor Leagues by the Dodgers on Tuesday.

Although Sands sent a game-winning single through the hole at shortstop to give the Dodgers a 4-3 win over the White Sox on Monday, it raised his average only to .158. It was only his second RBI in 38 spring at-bats. He had 12 strikeouts and a .184 slugging percentage.

Josh Fields couldn’t be reached for comment as he is currently doing back flips.

Jamey Wright has been signed by the team to fill a bullpen spot, with Blake Hawksworth moving to the 60-day DL, and John Grabow exercising his out-clause.

The Dodgers on Tuesday confirmed the signing of non-roster pitcher Jamey Wright and created space on the 40-man roster by moving right-handed reliever Blake Hawksworth to the 60-day disabled list.

Hawksworth is recovering slowly from two operations — the initial one in January to clean out his right elbow and another three weeks later to address a staph infection.

The Dodgers guaranteed Wright’s contract having informed left-hander John Grabow, another non-roster invitee, that he would not make the club. He exercised an out clause Monday and was granted his release.

Jamey Wright.

Career 5.05 FIP and 4.67 SIERA.

Just saying.

When you’re a team full of over-the-hill or never-were veterans, a team that is offensively-challenged to the umpteenth degree beyond your dominating center fielder, and a team that has a broke owner, playing your top offensive prospect who doesn’t make a lot of money and has the most upside of any of your left field candidates is the obvious and wise choice.

Unfortunately, if you’re the Los Angeles Dodgers, and more to the point, Ned Colletti, you sign Juan Rivera for $4 million (with a $4 million club option for 2013) and confuse the whole baseball world yet again.

—–

Rivera – after being plucked off waivers following his release from the Toronto Blue Jays – stepped to the plate 246 times over 62 games and hit .274/.333/.406 with a .324 wOBA.

Now, you may be asking yourselves how anyone could be impressed with this, aside from the fact that it meant sayonara to Marcus Thames, Jay Gibbons, and Eugenio Velez. Well, Rivera’s impressive play, in the eyes of Colletti, is based on two things: a BABIP-fueled (.358) 34-game stretch in which he smacked the ball to the tune of a .322/.367/.496/.863 line, and 46 RBIs in those 62 games in Dodger Blue. In his last 28 games to end the campaign, Rivera’s slash line: .221/.297./308/.605 with a .236 BABIP. Rivera’s career batting average on balls in play is .283, but it has not exceeded .300 since 2006. He most certainly has a place on this team, and one we should all welcome, but that place is not making four million dollars and starting in left field every day.

Rivera performs well against lefties, to the tune of a .289/.335/.495/.830 line, and the Dodgers have a first baseman and a right fielder who can’t hit lefties to save their tails. A match made in baseball heaven this should be. Platoon Juan with both Andre Ethier and James Loney, leaving left field wide open for the club’s best offensive prospect, who has nothing left to prove in the minors: Jerry Sands.

Rivera has never been more than a 2.8 WAR player, and Sands has displayed power, a good eye at the plate, and the ability to get on-base. Plus, and this can’t be stressed enough: he’s got upside and is only 24 years of age. If either of their respective glove work is concerning (Rivera actually boats a career UZR/150 of 4.8 in left and Sands’ best work in the field in small sample sizes has been in right), Tony Gwynn, Jr. is always around to play late-inning caddy.

—–

The moral of the story is this: don’t sign Juan Rivera for four million bones to be a starter on your team, and don’t let Ned Colletti have control of the signings to begin with.

“A Tale of Two James Loneys” would be a great title for a novella, and it’s also the most apt description of Loney’s 2011 season.

Manning first in what was another season of “James Loney will finally hit for power and win a Gold Glove” vs. “James Loney will continue to under-perform, and by God we can do better”, Loney actually produced his best campaign to date. Unfortunately, it was still underwhelming, and even more unfortunately, it “earned” him another year and another chance in Dodger Blue.

—–

Between Opening Day and the end of May, Loney’s line looked like this: .249/.292/.325/.617 with nine extra-base hits in 212 plate appearances. From June 1st through the end of the season, Loney mashed (certainly by his standards) to the tune of a .311/.365/.470/.835 slash line with 34 extra-base hits in 370 plate appearances.

The real question, of course, is what precipitated this massive turnaround, and whether it’s sustainable.

—–

I’m not a scouting guy, and my strengths do not lie in analyzing batting mechanics and things of that nature. I’m a numbers guy, so that’s where we’re headed.

BABIP most definitely played a role, as a .337 mark helped to fuel the latter portion of James’ season, while a .263 BABIP accompanied Loney’s early season putridness (it may not be a word, but it’s as accurate a description as they come). Loney’s career batting average on balls in play is .311, so in short, he wasn’t as bad or as good as his two seasons would indicate.

That being said, all evidence points to James being more the first guy than the second half slugger.

Prior to 2011, James had put up declining numbers across the board. A two-year decline in OBP (.357/.329), BB% (10.7%/8.0%), and homers (13/10) went hand-in-hand with a four-year downward spiral in both SLG% (.538/.434/.399/.395) and wOBA (.389/.333/.332/.315), and a two-year increase in K% (10.4%/14.7%). Loney did cut down on his whiffs last year (11.5%), but he also drew even less walks (7.2%). Furthermore, since his career year in regards to value was accompanied by a .288/.339/.416 line with a .329 wOBA, .128 ISO, and 43 extra-base hits as an everyday first baseman, his status on the squad has to be in doubt.

With the leather, James had his best season, posting a 5.6 UZR/150, though for his career he has barely been an average glove man (0.1 UZR/150). Loney has never put up a WAR greater than the 2.3 he managed in ’11, and he’s averaged barely a 1.4 WAR in his six seasons in The Show (four full seasons).

—–

Which James Loney will grace us with his presence this year, I can’t predict with 100% certainty. However, based on the abundance of data we have at our disposal (namely over 3000 career plate appearances), it is safe to say he’ll continue to not hit for power, not draw walks, and generally underwhelm immensely at the plate, while being atrocious against southpaws (.213/.254/.307/.561 in 2011, .252/.309/.368/.677 career), as he enters his age 28 season.

If Don Mattingly is wise, he’ll platoon Juan Rivera with Loney at first, move Andre Ethier to left field, and play Jerry Sands everyday in right.

Chris Withrow, Scott Van Slyke, Alex Castellanos, John Wall, Stephen Fife, Michael Antonini, and Alfredo Silverio were optioned to minor league camp, while Russ Mitchell and Shane Lindsay, both non-roster invitees to camp, were reassigned to the minor league side.

No surprises there.

However, one surprise is third baseman Josh Fields, who apparently now has a good shot at making the roster.

Fields is Mitchell with a history of Major League success, a corner infielder who slugged 23 home runs as a rookie for the Chicago White Sox in 2007, only to have his career get sidetracked by knee and hip surgeries.

His road back to the Major Leagues hasn’t been an easy one and included a detour to Japan last summer. He’s in Dodgers camp on a Minor League contract, but he’s made enough of an early impression that he leaped past Mitchell as an insurance candidate at third base if Juan Uribe should fail again, and at first base behind James Loney.

Fields, Jerry Sands and Justin Sellers are probably fighting for the last roster spot, barring injury.

If that’s true, then Fields is making the team, I think.

Now I’ve basically come to terms with the fact that the Dodgers won’t be keeping Jerry Sands, because … Dodgers. Plus, carrying Justin Sellers would mean taking eleventy trillion utility infielders on the roster, so I’m pretty sure Fields ends up as the odd man in.

While I guess that’s a nice story, let’s get one thing straight here: Fields has a career rWAR of -1.3 and a career fWAR of -0.1. To say the reason his career is currently on the brink is due to injuries is asinine because even in that breakout season he was worth 0.9 rWAR and 0.6 fWAR.

My point is that people should stop pretending like he has a ton of upside because it isn’t true, and he’s far more likely to end up as the 2010 Garret Anderson than 2006 Olmedo Saenz.

Clayton Kershaw is injured! Everybody panic!

Dodgers Cy Young winner Clayton Kershaw missed his first bullpen session of Spring Training on Wednesday as a precautionary measure due to mild back tightness.

Oh, it’s just back tightness.

Speaking of injuries, Ken Gurnick of MLB.com reports that Rubby De La Rosa is progressing quickly.

Rubby De La Rosa is a pitcher, not a doctor, but he’s declared his Tommy John elbow reconstruction a success and predicts a return this season “after the All-Star break.”

“It’s unbelievable, perfect,” said De La Rosa, whose meteoric rise to the Major Leagues last year was derailed by one bad pitch that tore his ulnar collateral ligament. “I’m going to be a lot better. No doubt I’ll be 100 percent.”

De La Rosa, six months into recovery, said he hasn’t had any setbacks and is throwing 90 feet on flat ground with a target of April to be throwing off a mound. He said he feels healthy enough to air it out, but the training staff has him reined in to throw easy.

“I have to wait,” he said. “I want to be healthy. Sometimes I want to throw hard.”

Can’t wait to see how he performs upon returning. I’m guessing it’ll be out of the pen initially.

As Ronald Belisario‘s world turns, Dylan Hernandez of the Los Angeles Times has an update that involves cocaine.

Back with the Dodgers after a yearlong absence, reliever Ronald Belisario said Wednesday that he was prevented from entering the United States last year because he tested positive for cocaine.

The positive drug test also resulted in a 25-game suspension issued by Major League Baseball that Belisario will serve at the start of the upcoming season.

Standing in front of his locker before the pitchers and catchers’ first workout of the spring, Belisario said he didn’t have a cocaine problem and that he had ingested the drug only once.

“I don’t have a problem with any drugs,” he said.

The failed drug test was the latest incident in a series of personal setbacks that have derailed the 29-year-old right-hander’s once-promising career. In 2010, his last season with the Dodgers, Belisario left the team for more than a month to receive treatment in a substance-abuse program.

Belisario didn’t offer specifics about the treatment he received other than saying it wasn’t for cocaine abuse.

“That’s in the past,” he said. “I don’t want to talk about it.”

Only did cocaine once and was in the substance abuse program for a different issue that he doesn’t want to talk about. Wonderful, sounds legit. Maybe he should have checked himself into a top private drug rehab in Los Angeles, CA instead.

—–

Could Andre Ethier platoon with Jerry Sands against lefties? Don Mattingly leads us to believe in the possibility.

“Jerry was really good against lefties last year, but we’ve got to be able to get him x number of at-bats. I hate the thought of saying that we’ll platoon guys, but the numbers say (James) Loney and (Andre) Ethier weren’t good against lefties. We’ll mix and match.”

So who tells Ethier about this and how big of a fit does he throw?

Naturally though, it’s the correct move.

—–

Kevin Goldstein of Baseball Prospectus reported on Twitter that the Dodgers signed Brent Leach, who was once a prospect in the Dodgers system before he left to Japan.

Lefties galore.

Spring Training is here, which means all other sports matter less, and wow, there’s way too much news out of the Los Angeles Dodgers camp already.

=====

Ken Gurnick of MLB.com reports that Clayton Kershaw will start on Opening Day, which is basically the biggest Captain Obvious moment of the season.

Then Matt Kemp told the media that he doesn’t want the 2011 NL MVP Award if Ryan Braun is suspended.

“I would want to win by them voting me,” Kemp said. “I wouldn’t want them to just, ‘Oh, this person did that so how about we just give the award to this person?’ I don’t think it should work that way.

“If it is that way, then it should be a vacant award for 2011, no one should win the MVP award in the National League.”

Kemp said he hopes Braun is vindicated.

“I know Braun,” he said. “We’ve always been cool. We’ve been friends. He’s been one of my favorite players in the big leagues. I hope it’s not true.”

Kemp has handled this situation extremely well up to this point and that just cements it.

It wasn’t all rainbows and kittens though, as Dylan Hernandez of the Los Angeles Times reported that Blake Hawksworth won’t be ready to start the season because a second operation was necessary to clean up his elbow.

—–

As far as roles and playing time go, Eric Stephen of True Blue LA has a ton of news.

“Javy, to me, didn’t do anything last year to say he shouldn’t be that guy,” manager Don Mattingly said on Tuesday. “More than anything, Kenley was saying ‘Hey I can do that too’ by the way he pitched. It’s a good problem for us to have.”

“Javy has been here one year,” said Mattingly. “It’s a competition, you still have to perform. There have been a lot of guys in their first year were really good and struggled the next year. Kenley was a perfect example, as he wasn’t himself [to start 2011] that he was the year before. It took him a half a season with little problems here and there, and he was in the minors for a little bit, but next thing you know he emerged back to what we had seen the year before.”

Javy Guerra will be the closer over Kenley Jansen to start the season, and while Jansen is the better pitcher, I don’t have a problem with this, as it gives the team better flexibility in regards to Jansen’s usage.

“It’s not like he’s a bad guy, or you don’t like him. But to this point he’s been tough to count on,” Mattingly said of relief pitcher Ronald Belisario, who is here in camp, but was not available for reporters as he left for a dental appointment. “It’s a step in the right direction that he’s here.”

The much maligned Ronald Belisario was actually there in person in real life at Spring Training and it’s important because if he looks anything like his old self, Hawksworth’s injury might have just opened up a spot.

—–

In the world of position players, both starting and backup roles are at stake.

Jerry Sands doesn’t necessarily need to win an everyday spot in the lineup to make the opening day roster, but Mattingly said he needs to have a certain number of plate appearances to justify a spot on the big league roster, as the club wants Sands to play nearly every day. While Mattingly shied away from committing to a plan of sitting Andre Ethier and Loney against southpaws, the manager said that figuring out a way to get Sands enough at-bats will be one of his projects in camp.

I have a way to get Jerry Sands at bats: don’t play Juan Rivera.

The backup shortstop will be Jerry Hairston Jr., as Mattingly wants to keep Juan Uribe at third base. Should Dee Gordon go down for any extended period of time, the club would turn to Justin Sellers.

Jerry Hairston Jr. is a fine utility infielder, but that paragraph makes me want to barf. Juan Uribe at third all the time and Justin Sellers is the backup in case Dee Gordon doesn’t take off like they expect.

Could be bad.

Finally, it was announced that Gordon will hit first, while Kemp hits third.

I’ll explore this later, but this could be a bad idea. Gordon got better later in the season, but it was a tiny sample size, and as a whole, he has always struggled at taking a walk. Furthermore, contrary to popular belief, putting your best hitter in the three hole is not optimal either.

Tim Dierkes of MLB Trade Rumors reported late on December 14th that the Cubs and Dodgers were both interested in having Coco Crisp play left field for them in 2012.

—

The revelation is surprising for the Dodgers, as the team already has five outfielders it can start the season with in Matt Kemp, Andre Ethier, Juan Rivera, Tony Gwynn Jr., and Jerry Sands. Additionally, the team has 39 of 40 roster spots occupied, and it was widely assumed that the last spot was reserved for a veteran reliever.

—

As for Crisp, since leaving the Red Sox in 2009 he has put up a .262/.326/.396/.722 line and has played solid defense in center field. It’s not that Crisp is a terrible player to have on a roster, it’s that he made almost $6 million last year and he’s not the type of player you usually want to invest in when you already have five MLB ready outfielders.

As such, I’m left to assume this is a clear indication that Ned Colletti does not want Sands on the roster to begin the season, thus proving that even with a limited budget, he will do everything in his power to not use a prospect while teams in far better situations do so regularly as a way to maximize value.

Just a weird story that came out of left field (no pun).

Ned Colletti has signed Jerry Hairston Jr. to a 2 year deal worth 6 million dollars because…of course. Dylan Hernandez of the Los Angeles Times reports that he’ll make $2.25 million in 2012 and $3.75 million in 2013, which means the contract is back loaded because…of course.

—–

In all fairness, Hairston is certainly versatile and useful, as he can play 2B, 3B, SS, CF, and LF. Being brought on as a utility infielder though is puzzling, as it means the Dodgers arguably have at least five of them in Hairston, Juan Uribe, Adam Kennedy, Justin Sellers, and Ivan DeJesus.

Over 300 plate appearances, he totals -5 batting, -0.5 baserunning, -1 defense, 0.5 position, and 10 replacement.

—–

In 2010 with the Padres, Hairston put up a .244/.299/.353/.652 line, but followed that with a better 2011 split between the Nationals and Brewers, posting a .270/.344/.383/.727 slash. Given that he’ll be going into his age 36 season, I put Hairston around .260/.330/.370/.700 with a .310 wOBA or so.

With the glove, he’s about average or on the fringes of average at 2B, 3B, CF, and SS, but excels in LF. However, I project him to mainly play the former positions rather than the latter, unless they bench both Juan Rivera and Jerry Sands and any upcoming prospects from that position, thus making my head explode.

—–

The Dodgers are in a bit of a Catch-22 situation now, as Jerry Hairston Jr. and the rest of the utility infielder Avengers could all be worth their contracts if they get adequate playing time. However, in order to get that playing time, one of these guys has to lose it and thus be completely not worth their deals. Since no projected regular or backup are free of Ned Colletti’s hands except Dee Gordon and Justin Sellers, it’s almost a no win situation having this many guaranteed deals for mediocre players, with some of them being on multiple year deals.

I already mentioned previously that I actually didn’t mind Jerry Hairston Jr. on the team, and I honestly still don’t, mainly because of the versatility he brings to the table. I think there’s value beyond his WAR in the way he fills out a bench. However, the problem, as with most of Ned Colletti’s signings, is the opportunity cost of the deal and his asset management.

I know it sounds like I’m beating a dead horse by saying that, but I can’t not say it, because it’s a sad reality.

Ken Gurnick reports that the Dodgers and Juan Rivera have agreed on a one-year contract worth 4 million dollars that includes an option year. Jon Paul Morosi adds that the option year is a team option worth 4 million dollars with a $500k buyout and that there are $500k worth of incentives in both years. Dylan Hernandez had the initial report of a deal being finalized.

—

Despite appearances, Juan Rivera does have value, as he hit .274/.333/.406/.739 in a Dodgers uniform last year. Additionally, he’s a competent fielder, posting a 3.0 runs defensive WAR value in 2011 with a history of above average defensive play. However, his .324 wOBA is mediocre for the position, and he hasn’t posted an OBP over ~.330 since 2006. Plus, his power has fallen in two consecutive seasons, which isn’t the most promising sign for a soon to be 34-year-old. As one might expect, he’s worth -1.5 runs on the basepaths and that only figures to get worse as he ages.

Given enough playing time, he would be hard pressed not to be a break even value for the Dodgers at 4-5 million dollars (~1.0 WAR). The catch is that starting him full time means he takes significant playing/development time away from Jerry Sands, who might be a superior player as it is. On the other hand, if the Dodgers choose not to start him and use him as a bench player or a platoon partner for Andre Ethier and James Loney, then he’s unlikely to accumulate enough value to justify his contract even as a neutral move. If it sounds like a Catch-22, that’s because it is.

—

In a vacuum, I actually don’t mind having Juan Rivera on the Dodgers. He has value as a bench bat that can competently play three positions and hit a bit, but with the Dodgers situation, there’s only a tiny window for him to succeed, especially given his age.

Jerry Sands

Left Field: Ned Colletti’s Folly.

This is the Season Review I’ve been least looking forward to because it’s by far the most depressing, and it’s therefore the one I have the least interest in writing.

Essentially, left field was a hot mess in 2011, as the Dodgers used basically everybody, the kitchen sink, and Eugenio Velez. I’ll focus on the main guys and then leave the rest to rot in baseball purgatory where they belong.

—–

I begin with Jerry Sands because of his status as a top prospect heading into 2011 and his likely status as the 2012 starting left fielder. Sands mashed at every minor league level, and it was just a matter of time before he made his major league debut, particularly with the way Ned Colletti had constructed the team, and especially with the way he constructed said team in left and at first base. What was surprising though was that Sands made his debut on April 18th, earlier than just about anyone anticipated.

Jerry’s first 30 games were not spectacular by any means, but he showed the tools necessary to succeed, as he slashed .239/.343/.413/.756 with 12 extra-base hits and a 22:15 K:BB mark. He went the other way, was willing to draw a walk, and displayed a solid arm in the field.

His next 10 games would be his undoing, however, as he hit just .091/.143/.091/.234 with 0 extra-base hits and 11 strikeouts against just 2 walks (although it should be noted his BABIP was an unhelpful .136). Sands was sent back to AAA and asked to make adjustments at the plate, and make adjustments he did.

—

Upon his return to the show as a September call-up on the 8th, Jerry displayed the hitting prowess that Dodger fans everywhere were hoping would translate. In 20 games, he mashed at a .342/.415/.493/.908 clip with seven XBHs and an 18:8 K:BB mark. He hit in 14 straight and cemented himself as a starter somewhere on the diamond next season, barring any Uncle Ned funny business.

His home/road splits, as noted by Mike Petriello, were certainly something that needs noting, but with his minor league success, plate discipline, ability to use all fields, and raw power, I’m not concerned that he’ll morph into the right-handed version of James Loney.

Juan Rivera

After being picked up off of waivers from Toronto, Juan Rivera split time in right, left, and at first. Never more than a role player in Anaheim, Rivera tanked with the Jays before landing his new gig in Los Angeles by simply being better than Marcus Thames’ corpse. Juan started 32 games in left for the Dodgers and matched his solid reputation with the glove (2011 L.A. UZR/150 of 4.1, career 4.8).

However, despite a fast start, James Loney’s temporary caddy did not perform as admirably with the bat. During his 62 game stint, and almost 250 plate appearances after being signed, Juan slashed .274/.333/.406 with a .324 wOBA. Again, better than Marcus Thames, but not worthy of a starting gig with the Blue Crew in 2012.

As a right-handed platoon-mate for Ethier and Loney, Rivera could fit in nicely with the club. Beyond that, however, he’s not worthy of more than a one-year deal with a small salary of one to two million.

JaMarcus Gwybbons, Jr.

Coined by the aforementioned Petriello, this motley trio was Ned Colletti’s bright idea to begin the season in left.

Gwynn Jr. was a glove-only player to begin with, as well as being the only option to spell The Bison in center. He met those expectations, as his UZR/150 in left was a spectacular 20.9, with a 23.7 overall in 677 innings in the field. His bat was miniscule as usual, as he hit .256/.308/.353 with a .299 wOBA and checked in with a WAR of 1.6. As a backup outfielder playing for a million or so, he certainly has a place on the squad, as he was also successful on 22 of 28 stolen base attempts (79%).

Marcus Thames was hurt and ineffective before being DFA’d. A triple slash line of .197/.243/.333, a wOBA of .254, a wRC+ of 58, and a WAR of -0.3 will inevitably lead to your release. He also displayed a lead glove, with a UZR/150 of -14.6.

Gibbons spent time on the DL with vision problems before not doing anything in the show and being DFA’d back to Albuquerque. His WAR was equivalent to Thames’, his wOBA was just .293, and he, like Marcus, doesn’t walk enough (8.1 BB%), strikes out too much (22.6% of the time), and couldn’t field a ball to save his or anyone else’s life (2011 UZR/150 in 100 innings of -46.5).

Totality Of The Situation

The Dodgers used 10 men in left, traded away their best defensive outfield prospect in Trayvon Robinson, and let Eugenio Velez start a game in left and appear in three more.

Jerry Sands entered 2011 as a top Dodgers prospect and made his major league debut on April 18th to chants of “Jerry! Jerry!”, but on June 7th, 144 plate appearances later, he played his last game in a Dodgers uniform until he was recalled as part of the expanded rosters in September. Over those 144 plate appearances that spanned from April to June, Sands was underwhelming to say the least, as he put up a .200/.294/.328/.622 line while playing primarily in left and right field.

His dismal start dulled fan expectations a bit for his September recall, but when he did return on September 8th, Sands was a different player, or at least he performed like it. In 83 plate appearances, he put up a huge line of .342/.415/.493/.908, giving Dodgers fans an immense amount of hope for his 2012 season.

But what was the cause for the sudden change in performance?

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The most popular explanation among both fans and the media revolves around Sands making adjustments to his swing, and Sands even said as much himself while talking to Jim Peltz of the Los Angeles Times:

“I changed some big things in my swing,” Sands said without disclosing specifics. Now, he said, “it’s just a mental thing, just settling down, relaxing.”

Changes without disclosing specifics, huh? Well that’s rather frustrating for fans to read, don’t you think?

I did, so I thought maybe a comparison of his swing from April and then September would help diagnose the specifics he left out.

—–

—–

The changes that Jerry Sands made between April and September were both smart and significant.

1) Hands held significantly lower.

Watching Sands in the minor leagues, it was clear to me that the holes in his swing were fastballs of any velocity up in the zone and fastballs thrown hard in on his hands. By dropping his hands, it compounds a weakness (up), but provides dual benefits (in, down).

Since Sands has always had trouble with pitches up anyway, I don’t think exposing that further is a huge deal, as the solution to that problem is for him to stop swinging at balls up and out of the zone to begin with.

Now what the change in setup does do is allow for less moving parts and allow for his hands to start in the hitting position, thus making him quicker to balls thrown in on his hands and down in the zone (where his strength lies, IMO).

2) Opened up his stance.

Early in the year, Sands setup closed and then closed off further through his timing mechanism. When he was recalled though, Sands sets up open and then closes off back to a neutral setting through his timing mechanism.

This part of his swing adjustment allows for easier hip clearance so that he can pull the ball with greater frequency (notice that he went the other way almost exclusively in April). Additionally, it allows him to keep his left shoulder on the ball longer instead of having to bail with his front side in an attempt to get the bat head around in time.

3) Weight distribution balanced.

In April, you can see how unbalanced he is at footstrike, which was a common theme during his first stint by my observation. His closed setup was part of the issue, but it was more about how he would load his weight heavily on his back leg. Thus, as he shifted his weight forward, he would commonly get too wide and spread out, allowing him to basically get destroyed by breaking balls he wasn’t looking for.

By contrast, in September, you can see he’s in a neutral position at footstrike and ready to attack the ball aggressively. Sands stopped loading so heavily on his back leg and instead kept a generally even weight distribution throughout his approach, allowing him to keep his hands and hips back with greater consistency.

—–

I’m not at all familiar with whoever reconstructed the swing of Jerry Sands, but in my opinion, whoever did it knew exactly what they were doing and should take credit for it.

While I listed the advantages of the adjustments above, the changes themselves are not what impressed me, but rather it was what they fixed that was important.

I think what’s most important when making adjustments to the swing of a professional player is not trying to fit everybody’s swing into an ideal, but rather sculpting what they already have and making it efficient.

From what I’ve seen, that’s exactly what these changes do, as they ask Sands to learn to layoff fastballs up and then both allow him to expand on a strength (down) and create a solution for weaknesses (in, breaking balls).

To say I’m impressed by the changes that have taken place is an understatement.

—–

All that said, and I know this disclaimer gets annoying, but despite my admitted optimism, these are all short term results and small sample size conclusions. While they can absolutely lead to long term success, it’s certainly not in the bag by any means.

Still though, when asking whether or not Sands actually made adjustments and whether those adjustments made him better, the answer to both is a resounding yes.

Andre Ethier

My my my, what a few walk-off home runs and a 30-game hit-streak will do to a man’s reputation in relation to his actual production.

After a pinkie injury cut short his 2010 campaign, which was shaping up to be a career year for Dre, 2011 began with a lack of power but improved on-base skills while hitting in front of Matt Kemp in the three-hole. During the aforementioned 30-game streak, he hit .397/.462/.560/1.022 with a wholly unsustainable .462 BABIP. However, his end of the season line was .292/.368/.421/.789. Not bad, of course, but not a guy you want to sign long-term as he quickly nears thirty years of age.

Yes, I realize he had a balky knee that led to an entirely humorous back-and-forth with the staff and management. That knee doesn’t take away from the fact that Ethier has never been a great fielder (career UZR/150 of -7.5) nor has he been able to hit southpaws (career .242/.302/.359/.661). At his age with the balky knee and a troubling decline in key areas ( 2010/2011: SLG % – .493, .421; wOBA – .367, .343; ISO – .201, .129; XBHs – 57, 41), Ethier is potentially living on borrowed time as both a solid offensive player and a Dodger.

In 2012, we have to simply hope for good health and his solid production of the past, or that he gets dealt for some younger pieces as another team takes a chance on him. At least, that’s what I’m hoping for at this point.

Others Of Note

8 Dodgers made an appearance in right field in 2011. Jerry Sands and Juan Rivera will be covered in full in the Left Field Season Review, while the rest of the motley bunch are undeserving of more words than these.

—

FUN FACTS: Jay Gibbons started 4 games in right, and Russ Mitchell played an inning at the position.

Tonight’s game was a rather uneventful affair in what amounted to a meaningless game for the Dodgers, only notable for Chad Billinglsey’s continued inability to miss bats and Jerry Sands’ solid all-around game. For better or worse though, Gerardo Parra decided to spice things up for everybody involved in the top of the seventh after he took offense to a high and inside pitch from Hong Chih Kuo.

The pitch in question (below) sailed on Kuo up and in after A.J. Ellis clearly set up on the outside corner. Parra obviously took offense to the pitch immediately, staring at Kuo and grabbing his crotch, though Kuo himself didn’t seem to care or notice.

My thoughts? Parra clearly wasn’t thinking at all. Obviously he might not know that Kuo went on the disabled list with the yips and that he has been quite bad for the entire year, but he could know that hitting a batter for no reason whatsoever in the top of the seventh inning while ahead by one run is less than logical.

Idiot.

Apparently though, on ESPN’s Baseball Tonight, Chris Singleton and Mark Mulder thought Parra was justified, which reinforces the point that players are usually idiots and should rarely be used as analysts.

—–

After Parra hit a home run off Kuo later in the at-bat was when the real trouble started though, as he pimped the homer, stared down Kuo while rounding the bases, and jawed a bit with Ellis.

I may have taken a few liberties with the GIF interpretation of the events. Maybe.

—–

As expected, the Dodgers dugout was none too happy with the events that transpired and jawed with Matt Williams, and Clayton Kershaw in particular was quite animated.

Welp, if nothing else, this just gave me a damn good reason to watch tomorrow’s game.

Dylan Hernandez confirmed on Twitter the report that Tim Federowicz got the call to the big leagues, and he added that Jerry Sands and John Ely also received calls.

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Dylan Hernandez and Joe Block provided the details on what the call-ups mean for the Dodgers.

Federowicz won’t play right away. Mattingly wants him to get used to his new environment first.

Mattingly wants to see Sands. Could result in more days off for Ethier and Rivera.

Mattingly said he’ll play Justin Sellers regularly in order to better evaluate him.

Mattingly said Tony Gwynn will play less and Andre Ethier will get more off days so Jerry Sands can play regularly.

Sounds like a plan, especially the part about taking closer looks at Sellers and Sands, because that’s what an out of contention team is supposed to use September for.

-

I already briefly touched on Federoaooaisawizcz‘s season, so I’ll tackle Sands and Ely.

For Sands, he started off the year extremely hot in AAA, which led to an early season call-up, but he looked overmatched and struggled to adjust quickly in the majors. Upon being sent down, his struggles continued for a bit, but his overall line at AAA stands at .278/.344/.586/.931 on the year. A fine season, even at Albuquerque, but the 38/86 BB/K ratio is something to look closer at. He did make swing adjustments upon being sent back down though, which could explain his initial struggles, and it’s something I might analyze further later on.

For Ely, he honestly hasn’t done anything to prove he’s worth a call-up in 2011, and the only reason he’s getting it is because of his limited success as a Dodger in 2010. In 25 starts in AAA, he posted a 5.99 ERA and allowed 21 homers in 144.1 innings. I know it’s Albuquerque, but good lord.

All in all, just excited to see what Federoaoraiwzicz can do and what adjustments Sands has made since his last stint.