Mark Ellis finally hit the 15-day DL, being placed on it Monday retroactive to April 27. The Dodgers activated Chris Capuano from the 15-day DL in a corresponding move.

It took the Dodgers about a week longer than it should have, but as expected Mark Ellis was placed on the 15-day disabled list on Monday with a strained right quad. The move clears a spot for Chris Capuano to be activated from the DL to start the series opener Monday night against the Diamondbacks at Dodger Stadium.

Capuano returns from a strained left calf that sidelined him for 20 days. He made one rehab start, last Wednesday against Memphis with Triple-A Albuquerque, and allowed two runs in 5⅓ innings.

What a season. Also, why would you wait so long, Don and Ned? Does playing a position player short for an entire week with a team already lacking in offensive talent on the bench really sound like a good idea?

——

Jerry Hairston Jr. also joined the injury club, as he was placed on the disabled list due to a strained groin. Elian Herrera was recalled from AAA.

The Dodgers made it official on Tuesday, placing Jerry Hairston on the 15-day disabled list with a strained left groin. Elian Herrera was recalled from Triple-A Albuquerque before the second game of a three-game series against the Diamondbacks at Dodger Stadium.

I would call the Herrera promotion a surprise, as he is the weakest hitter of the four options from Triple-A Albuquerque, but he is also the only one of the four both healthy and on the 40-man roster.

“He’s and outfielder, pretty much. We feel like those are his best positions, the corners,” manager Don Mattingly said of Herrera. “He’s played the corners. He’s a right-handed bat.”

Herrera was the choice because he was on the 40-man and others weren’t, which led to the following move.

—–

Herrera was soon thereafter sent back to AAA, as Scott Van Slyke was recalled after being added to the 40-man roster.

Van Slyke, who was designated for assignment in December and outrighted off the 40-man roster, came into camp with something to prove this season, and showed it during the season’s first month. He hit .397/.503/.733 with nine home runs, 10 doubles, 32 runs scored, and 30 RBI in 34 games for Albuquerque.

Insurance with A-Gon battling his neck injury. It only makes sense, which begs the question of why they waited so long and had to deal with Juan Uribe and friends at first for multiple games.

—–

To allow SVS’s addition to the 40-man, Chad Billingsley was transferred from the 15-day DL to the 60-day disabled list.

—–

Tim Federowicz was recalled from Albuquerque, as Justin Sellers was sent down.

The Dodgers on Wednesday bolstered their bench by recalling red-hot catcher Tim Federowicz from Triple-A Albuquerque, and optioned infielder Justin Sellers to Triple-A before their series finale against the Diamondbacks at Dodger Stadium.

“We had plenty of infielders,” said manager Don Mattingly. “We look at it from the standpoint of having a better hitting bench.”

Hey look, three catchers again. Ramon Hernandez‘s days could very well be numbered.

—–

Our own Dustin Nosler brings us the news that righty Ross Stripling was promoted from High-A to Double-A.

The Dodgers on Tuesday promoted right-handed pitcher Ross Stripling to Double-A Chattanooga from High-A Rancho Cucamonga. The 2012 fifth-round draft pick has been on a nearly meteoric rise since the Dodgers popped him last season.

Stripling, 23, posted some impressive numbers in the California League early this season. He struck out 34 batters in 33 2/3 innings, walked 11 batters and allowed just one home run. Those are numbers for anyone to hang his hat on, let alone a guy in his first full season in a hitter’s haven.

Due to his age and performance, he’s understandably being fast-tracked. If he performs at AA, and with the way injuries are going, who knows where he ends up in September.

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Greg Zakwin is the founder of the site Plaschke Thy Sweater Is Argyle. Follow him on Twitter @ArgyledPlaschke.

Zack Greinke is ahead of schedule as he works his way back from his broken left collarbone.

For the third time in six days, Dodgers pitcher Zack Greinke threw a bullpen session on Tuesday afternoon before the Dodgers hosted the Diamondbacks at Dodger Stadium. The right-hander is ahead of schedule in his recovery from a broken collarbone.

Greinke threw just over 60 pitches on Tuesday, and like Saturday in San Francisco was clocked at 90 mph. Unlike last Thursday’s light bullpen session at Dodger Stadium, the last two have been much more strenuous, with Greinke throwing all of his pitches.

“My normal bullpen session is 20 pitches at 75 percent,” Greinke said. “This was nothing like a normal bullpen session for me.”

Now, Greinke could begin a minor league rehab assignment as soon as this weekend, provided he has no setbacks. That could put Greinke in line to return to the Dodgers at some time around the last week of May.

He’s been throwing bullpen sessions and will start a rehab assignment soon, and the Dodgers could really use that lethal one-two punch atop the rotation as soon as possible.

How soon?

Try tomorrow, in Rancho.

Zack Greinke to pitch in Class A tomorrow. Would be in line to return to #Dodgers rotation Wednesday vs. Nationals. May 10, 2013

If Greinke does indeed return on Wednesday of next week, he would have missed just under five weeks, well ahead of the original timetable given of eight weeks.

—–

Adrian Gonzalez has a strained muscle in his neck, suffered in that odd and innocuous-looking collision with a first-base umpire a few days back.

First baseman Adrian Gonzalez had an MRI on Monday that revealed a mild strain in his left trapezious muscle at the base of his neck, but he will play through the pain.

“I’m going to try to play through it and see how it feels,” Gonzalez said Monday afternoon. “It’s not getting worse, but there’s still quite a bit of pain there.”

The injury has forced him out of games early and seen him scratched entirely in others, but Gonzalez intends to play through the pain, which sounds pretty typical for an injured Dodger.

Dodgers first baseman Adrian Gonzalez left Wednesday night’s game against the Diamondbacks in the fifth inning, one inning after making a diving attempt to catch a foul ball. Gonzalez has been battling a strained muscle in his neck, and the Dodgers say he aggravated the neck strain on Wednesday.

Gonzalez is listed as day-to-day.

Honestly, just rest the guy and DL him – which they should have done originally – as there is baseball beyond 2013. Letting guys play through injury just leads to a more serious injury or compensating for the injured area and then injuring a different area.

Speaking of the consequences of playing through pain…

…A-Gon’s shoulder injury from a couple of years ago has permanently altered his ability to hit for power.

His days as that kind of power hitter are gone.

That is not a whisper from an anonymous scout. That is the word from Gonzalez himself, who says he has been unable to recover the swing that made him an elite power hitter.

“I can still hit home runs,” Gonzalez said. “That is not going to be an issue. The full power is not the same.”

“Last year, I tried to go back to the swing I had before I got hurt,” he said. “I tried it for the whole first half, with horrible results.”

We all remember them letting Matt Kemp persist, right? Now he might not ever be the same?

Great.

—–

Carl Crawford‘s hamstring was feeling tight, and he was held out of the lineup Wednesday as a precaution.

Dodgers left fielder Carl Crawford was held out of the starting lineup for the series finale against the Diamondbacks on Wednesday night with tightness in his right hamstring. Utility man Elian Herrera gets the start in left field in Crawford’s place.

“Carl felt a little bit tender, it feels like something is going on. We’re just being cautious, with the off day tomorrow,” said manager Don Mattingly. “I had planned on playing him today, but when he comes in and feels like he’s a little bit tight, it’s better than playing him and he ends up pulling it and you miss him for a long time.”

A hamstring injury for a guy whose game is predicated on his legs is never a good thing.

—–

Hanley Ramirez will be on the shelf for roughly four to six weeks with his hamstring injury.

MRI results for Hanley Ramirez confirmed a strain of his left hamstring strain, and the Dodgers are placing the official timetable for his return at four to six weeks. That puts Ramirez back with the Dodgers some time in the first two weeks of June if all goes according to plan.

Just think if he and Greinke and Gonzalez and Kemp are all on the field together at the same time, healthy. This squad could possibly win a game or two.

—–

Mark Ellis hit the 15-day DL with his quad injury and is eligible to return on May 12, as the move was a retroactive one.

It took the Dodgers about a week longer than it should have, but as expected Mark Ellis was placed on the 15-day disabled list on Monday with a strained right quad.

Chris Capuano was activated from the disabled list and took his spot on the 25-man roster.

—–

Jerry Hairston Jr. hit the DL with a strain of his left groin. Elian Herrera was recalled to take his place.

The Dodgers made it official on Tuesday, placing Jerry Hairston on the 15-day disabled list with a strained left groin.

Based on various beat reports from Monday, Hairston tried to test his groin during pregame workouts but was unable to complete them. Hairston aggravated the injury on Saturday night in San Francisco, but appeared as a pinch hitter on Sunday.

Hairston was pretty much the only guy with any amount of power on the bench.

—–

Scott Elbert is set to begin a rehab assignment and could be available in the next week to week and a half.

Reliever Scott Elbert, healed from two left elbow operations, will begin a Minor League rehab assignment Friday for Class A Rancho Cucamonga and could be back in the Dodgers’ bullpen within seven to 10 days.

Elbert threw a simulated game Saturday in extended spring training in Arizona, employing a revamped delivery designed to ease stress on his elbow after undergoing two offseason operations and a platelet-rich plasma injection during Spring Training.

Well, this is a bright spot at least.

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Greg Zakwin is the founder of the site Plaschke Thy Sweater Is Argyle. Follow him on Twitter @ArgyledPlaschke.

Zack Greinke appears to be ahead of schedule in his recovery from a broken collarbone.

The original diagnosis after the surgery was for Greinke to return to pitching for the Dodgers in eight weeks after the Apr. 13 procedure, which would put him in line for a return around June 8. But given that Greinke is already throwing bullpen sessions, his return could come sooner than that.

Ken Gurnick has the details:

Greinke threw all of his pitches and said he had no discomfort. Original recovery estimate was eight weeks, but he’s ahead of that.

While I’m thrilled with this news, and it is a positive to counter all the bad, I would encourage them to take as much time as he needs to get back.

Besides being worried about him rushing it to help a struggling team, I would hope he’s given the time to adequately build his arm strength. Also, that he feels truly normal so that he’s not altering his mechanics. This is due to both injury and performance concerns.

—–

Adrian Gonzalez has been down and out for the past few days with a neck injury, and while there hasn’t been any indication that it’s serious enough to require a DL stint, it certainly doesn’t sound good.

Dodgers first baseman Adrian Gonzalez tried to play on Saturday night after sitting out Friday with a pain in his neck, but for the second consecutive night he was scratched from the starting lineup on Saturday against the Giants. Jerry Hairston will play first base in place of Gonzalez, and bat second.

Things figured to be bad for Gonzalez, who after Friday’s game told reporters, “I can’t turn my neck right now,” per Bill Shaikin of the Los Angeles Times.

Even on Saturday, though he was originally penciled into the lineup, Gonzalez spent the bulk of pregame getting treatment on his neck, and per Ken Gurnick of MLB.com was walking around the clubhouse wearing a soft neck brace. I’m no doctor, but that is almost never a good sign for anyone, let alone a professional athlete.

The weird part? On the play he was hurt, there’s barely any direct contact with his head/neck and the umpire at all.

Via Mike Petriello

I’m not sure his head/neck area even make direct contact. Not questioning his injury in any way, just mentioning it to point out how unlucky this team has been so far in 2013.

This injury sort of sums it up.

—–

Hanley Ramirez was placed on the 15-day DL with his hamstring injury, which seems as serious as it looked.

Ramirez led off the sixth inning with a walk against Barry Zito, then tried to advance to third base on a single to right field by A.J. Ellis. But between second and third base, Ramirez pulled up and slowed down, and appeared to favor his left leg.

Ramirez was helped off the field by team trainers, and replaced in the bottom of the inning by Justin Sellers at shortstop.

Early reports have the injury being compared to Matt Kemp‘s injury from 2012, and we know how that derailed his year.

—–

Chris Capuano is on pace to join the rotation this coming week.

Chris Capuano pitched into the sixth inning Wednesday night in his minor league rehab start with Triple-A Albuquerque, and remains in line to join the Dodgers when they open a series next week at Dodger Stadium against the Diamondbacks.

Capuano allowed two runs on seven hits in his 5⅓ innings, and struck out four with just one walk against Memphis. He had a bit of a scare in the third inning when he knocked down a comebacker with his bare hand, per Isotopes beat writer Chris Jackson, but Capuano was no worse for wear and remained in the game.

Capuano was removed after 76 pitches, presumably after hitting a prescribed pitch count limit. For what it’s worth, Isotopes play-by-play announcer Josh Suchon described Capuano’s outing as “solid” and said the left-hander “looks ready.”

Capuano and Greinke figure to come back soon, one after the other, so the rotation hopefully won’t be in shambles like it is now.

—–

Mark Ellis continues to make improvements, but how much longer can they wait?

Ellis said Wednesday that he was feeling better and was able to field, throw, hit and move laterally with no issue. But he was still unable to run at full speed.

The Dodgers need to open a roster spot for Clayton Kershaw to return from the bereavement list and make his scheduled start Friday at San Francisco.

Does Ellis believe he will be healthy enough to play Friday?

“We’ll see; I won’t know until Friday,” Ellis said before Wednesday’s game against the Rockies. “If it progresses every day like it has, I’d be optimistic. But it’s early in the season still, so we’ll see.”

If Ellis is unavailable again Friday, the Dodgers would most likely place the veteran on the disabled list.

Great that he’s not in the “gonna miss a month” territory with this, but they need to make a decision. The bench is terrible as it is, and they can’t just keep them a man down.

Given his age and injury history, I honestly don’t see why they don’t just play it safe.

—–

Carl Crawford (hamstring) isn’t a DL situation yet, Don Mattingly says.

— J.P. Hoornstra (@jphoornstra) May 1, 2013

Fortunately it seems like he’s about ready, as he pinch-hit yesterday.

—–

Jerry Hairston Jr. seems to think he’s okay after pulling up a bit lame while scoring last night.

Jerry Hairston, starting at first base Saturday night in place of the injured Adrian Gonzalez, was removed in the fifth inning in a double-switch, although he confirmed he “felt a little bit of a tweak in the groin” to explain why he was limping while scoring on Matt Kemp’s two-run single.

“I felt fine and could have stayed in the game. It was very minor,” Hairston said. “It was just a natural double-switch but I could have played. It’s really a non-issue. I hit the bag funny rounding third and I just wanted to make sure I didn’t overextend.”

Mattingly said he was told that Hairston was OK, “but I’m not sure what that means. We’ll see tomorrow.”

Again, this doesn’t seem major, but if this many guys are unavailable or borderline unavailable, it eats into an already weak and decimated bench.

—–

As you guys know, Ted Lilly was put on the DL with a rib cage strain.

—–

Down in the minors, it’s been a busy week:

Placed on 7-day DL: RHP Gustavo Gomez, RHP JonMichael Redding, LHP Onelki Garcia, C Jan Vazquez, 1B Chris Jacobs, 2B Rafael Ynoa

Reinstated from DL: RHP Matt Palmer, SS Ozzie Martinez, OF Yasiel Puig

Would like to know what Onelki Garcia‘s ailment is, since he’s the top prospect in the group. Rafael Ynoa is a potential contributor as well.

Ted Lilly will make his first start of the season on Wednesday, replacing the injured Chris Capuano, who had replaced the injured Zack Greinke.

Ted Lilly will start Wednesday night’s game against the Mets, manager Don Mattingly confirmed Friday. Lilly replaces the injured Chris Capuano, who previously replaced the injured Zack Greinke.

“That’s our plan,” said Mattingly. “Obviously, he’s got to come out of the bullpen today and one more [side session], but that’s the plan.”

Though the results of his rehab starts were not necessarily good, Lilly was happy with the progression of each start.

Lilly said each of his three rehab starts was better than the previous with his delivery and ability to adjust. He said he’s looking forward to competing again in the Major Leagues for the first time since last May.

He’s back to reclaim his homer-giver-upper throne!

In all seriousness, he better be ready.

—–

Chad Billingsley was placed on the 15-day DL with right elbow pain. Stephen Fife was recalled to replace Bills and he started in his place on Sunday.

What was once a ridiculously deep starting staff has now been decimated, with three guys injured and a fourth dealt.

—–

Tim Federowicz was recalled for a second time to replace the injured Capuano.

One day after he left his start in the third inning against the Padres with a left calf strain, Dodgers pitcher Chris Capuano was placed on the 15-day disabled list. To take his place on the roster, the Dodgers recalled catcher Tim Federowicz from Triple-A Albuquerque.

With a trip to the American League, the Dodgers decided to bring up another bat rather than replace an arm with an arm.

—–

Josh Wall was recalled once again, taking the place of an injured Shawn Tolleson.

Wall, who was among the final roster cuts of spring training, had a 2.08 ERA in four games with the Isotopes with one save, five strikeouts and three walks in 4⅓ innings.

The move was announced literally right before first pitch and at the time Wall was en route to Dodger Stadium, on Jackie Robinson Night.

Unfortunately, at the rate he’s going, he’ll be back down sooner than later.

—–

Jerry Hairston Jr., who had been appealing his one-game suspension stemming from the Carlos Quentin debacle, dropped the appeal and served the suspension on Wednesday.

—–

The Dodgers signed pitcher Anthony Ortega to a minor-league deal and assigned him to AAA to replace the recently called-up Stephen Fife.

—–

The Dodgers continue to pluck from the international pool of talent, signing RHP Osiris Ramirez (Puerto Plata), RHP Angel German, and 3B Jimy Perez (Bani).

—–

A slew of minor-league moves also went down:

Signed: RHP Victor Arano, 2B David Compton, OF Antonio Torres
Released: RHP Danny Carela
Loaned To Mexican League: RHP Javier Solano (Monterrey), LHP Thomas Melgarejo (Saltillo), 2B Jesus Alberto Arredondo (Monclova)

Biggest name on that list is probably relief pitcher Javier Solano.

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Greg Zakwin is the founder of the site Plaschke Thy Sweater Is Argyle. Follow him on Twitter @ArgyledPlaschke.

The Zack Greinke/Carlos Quentin/Dodgers/Padres debacle led to a lot of discussion and a couple of suspensions/fines: one for Quentin and one for Jerry Hairston Jr.

While Zack Greinke is expected to miss eight weeks after surgery to repair his broken left collarbone, Carlos Quentin of the Padres will miss eight games.

Jerry Hairston, who ran toward the Padres dugout after the initial melee died down, was suspended for one game.

Both Quentin and Hairston were fined an undisclosed amount, and both are appealing their suspensions. Both are starting in left field for their respective teams Friday night. Neither Greinke nor Matt Kemp, the other two players ejected, will be suspended.

For the best interests of both teams, MLB suggested to Quentin that he drop the appeal, and it was reported that he would. Yesterday, he did exactly that, and he will be suspended during the upcoming series.

—–

Tim Federowicz, as expected, was optioned to AAA to clear room on the 25-man roster for the returning Chad Billingsley.

“It’s tough. It’s one of those things as a young player. I have options left, and that’s just the way it is,” Federowicz said before Tuesday’s game. “You need some protection at the catchers spot if someone were to get hurt. We only had two on the roster, so they figured they had to do something.”

Ramon Hernandez will now serve as A.J. Ellis‘ backup, but give me Timmy every day of the week and twice on Sundays.

—–

Shawn Tolleson was recalled from AAA to replace the injured Greinke.

His stay on the team depends on what the Dodgers decide to do with Ted Lilly…

…and speaking of the devil, Lilly refused an assignment to continue rehabbing in the minors.

The Dodgers on Saturday asked Lilly to continue his Minor League rehab assignment with two more starts and he declined. He can’t be sent out without his permission and he declared himself healthy and ready to pitch in the Major Leagues.

The club disagrees.

“We laid out a plan and, obviously, he just didn’t like the plan,” said manager Don Mattingly, who put Chris Capuano in the starting rotation, and not Lilly, to replace the injured Zack Greinke. “From a baseball standpoint, we felt he wasn’t quite ready for what we want him to do, to start.”

“We laid out a plan and Teddy doesn’t want to be part of the plan. It’s out of my hands. We didn’t feel he was ready to pitch at the Major League level. For me, it’s a baseball decision. It’s nothing personal in any way, shape or form. We’re giving him our baseball thoughts, what we think is best for him and the team.”

In two rehab starts between the A+ and AAA levels, Lilly has a 7.50 ERA in 12 innings. Combine that with a horrible Spring Training and it’s hard to disagree with the team here.

But besides his performance why do they want to keep him in the minors, right? Well, Chris Capuano will make the start Tuesday in place of the injured Greinke.

Capuano has pitched two games in relief, including Thursday night directly following Greinke after he broke his left collarbone in a brawl against the Padres. In 2⅔ innings, Capuano allowed only two hits, a walk, and no runs, with four strikeouts. Capuano was 12-12 with a 3.72 ERA in 33 starts for the Dodgers in 2012.

So basically there’s no room in the rotation for Lilly, and Capuano is the right choice here.

—–

The Dodgers signed first baseman Sean Burroughs to a minor-league deal. Frankly, it was surprising to find out he was even still in baseball.

Just minor-league depth though.

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Greg Zakwin is the founder of the site Plaschke Thy Sweater Is Argyle. Follow him on Twitter @ArgyledPlaschke.

So in case you were under a rock yesterday, Zack Greinke has a broken collarbone and is out for a while, essentially because Carlos Quentin is an idiot.

As one would imagine, the reactions to what went down from the Dodgers dugout, media, and bloggers weren’t the most pleasant towards Quentin.

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Don Mattingly called him an idiot and said he should be suspended for however long Greinke is out.

“I don’t understand it either. We’re in a 2-1 game, and on a 3-2 pitch to guy I saw on the board set a record for the Padres by getting hit, a guy that basically dives into the plate. In a 2-1 game we’re trying to hit him 3-2? It’s just stupid, is what it is,” said manager Don Mattingly. “He should not play a game until Greinke can throw a pitch. If he plays before Greinke pitches, something is wrong.”

“He caused the whole thing,” Mattingly said of Quentin. “Nothing happens if you go to first base like in baseball you know you do, because you know he’s not throwing at you 3-2, in a 2-1 game. That’s zero understanding of the game of baseball.”

I don’t disagree.

—–

Matt Kemp went the extra mile to try and find out why Quentin charged the mound.

Kemp and Quentin were nose-to-nose before Richard stepped in. Kemp kept asking Quentin why he did it.

Matt Kemp confronted Carlos Quentin as the 2 were leaving Petco Park. Clayton Richard, cops, security broke it up.

Pretty stupid when you think about it. Last thing the team needs is for him to get hurt and/or suspended for dealing with that asshole.

While on the field though, Kemp lost it after he heard about Greinke being hurt.

Mattingly on Matt Kemp, one of three ejected: “once he knew Zack was hurt, he lost it

That reaction is more understandable to me.

—–

A.J. Ellis said that even a Padres player thought it was bullshit.

A.J. Ellis said #Padres players apologized for Quentin’s actions. “It’s not right, it’s not right,” he said one player told him.

Amusing that people are defending Quentin when people on his own team don’t even agree … off the record, of course.

—–

Speaking of the Padres, in a move of sheer class, Jerry Hairston Jr. relays that the reason he ran over to the Padres dugout, after things had seemingly settled a bit, was to confront a player making fun of the injured Greinke.

“It’s terrible. It’s unacceptable, and I lost it. If a guy’s going to hit you, he’s going to hit you on the very first pitch. This is The Show, you don’t do that stuff. My teammate now has a broken f—ing collarbone, because he hit you on a 3-2 pitch?” Hairston said. “I don’t know Carlos at all, I really don’t, but he was wrong.”

Hairston was ejected for going after one of the Padres after the initial melee had died down.

“I was playing peacemaker, just trying to break it up. Obviously Zack was hurt. One of the guys was chirping the whole time, making fun of him for having the hurt shoulder, broken collarbone, or whatever,” Hairston said.

Losing Zack stings, but we ll pick each other up. Zacks like my little brother. Saw someone making fun of him being injured. Not cool!!

Hairston said it wasn’t Yonder Alonso, and I’ve heard it was John Baker, which would make perfect sense since he’s a backup catcher nobody that will never have to answer for running his mouth. Who knows what the truth is, but it would explain why Hairston lost it.

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As far Quentin goes, his excuses after the game were about as irrational as you’d expect.

Quentin blames Greinke for history of HBP. Quentin said he has led league in HBP 2 years running and has never charged mound in MLB.

Translation: “I always lead the league in being hit, but never charge the mound. I did this time though! Why? His fault! But I won’t tell you why.”

Quentin, asked if any remorse: “I did what I did. It could have been avoided.”

Yeah, by you not charging the mound.

Look, I mentioned this in the other post, but Quentin gets hit a lot because of how he dives into the plate, so him getting hit multiple times by pitchers he faced a ton shouldn’t be surprising. In fact, if getting hit by Greinke often was his rationale for being upset, then Jon Weisman found a list of players Quentin should have been raging at before tonight:

The short list of pitchers who clearly have it in for Carlos Quentin: twitter.com/jonweisman/sta…

— Jon Weisman (@jonweisman) April 12, 2013

It’s a long list for a reason, put it that way.

So, hear my plea Carlos Quentin: FUCKING MOVE!

Move out of the way. Just don’t be in that place when the pitch comes at you. I know some plunkings are unavoidable. But surely you can cut down on a lot of them. Duck, or spin away, or bend backward or something. Just fucking move. Take your walk the traditional way.

A post written in jest, but prophetic nevertheless.

—–

For his part, Greinke said he didn’t hit Quentin on purpose but knows Quentin thinks he did.

“The only thing I’ll say about that is that I’ve never hit him on purpose,” Greinke said. “He always seems to think I hit him on purpose, but that’s not the case.”

It was the third time in 31 career plate appearances that Greinke hit Quentin. But he is hardly alone in that regard, as Quentin leads the majors with 97 HBP since the beginning of 2008.

“I thought it was a ploy to get people to not throw inside to him, so he can lean out away,” Greinke said. “I don’t know anyone who has hit him on purpose.”

Quentin maintained Greinke hit him intentionally.

“Myself and Greinke have a history, it dates back to a few years ago. You guys could look it up. It’s documented. It’s unfortunate about the situation. It could have been avoided. You can ask Zack about that,” Quentin said. “I can tell you I’ve never responded in that fashion before.”

Speaking of Quentin complaining about getting hit while diving over the plate, Giants pitcher Ryan Vogelsong gave a quote last year when Quentin got mad at him for throwing inside that basically sums Quentin’s attitude up.

A reminder after taking in the brawl last night between the Dodgers and Padres after Zack Greinke hit Carlos Quentin, who then charged the pitcher and broke his collarbone: Last Aug. 19 in San Diego, Ryan Vogelsong had a beef with Quentin after hitting him with a pitch, and Clayton Richard retaliating by hitting Brandon Belt.

Vogelsong fumed after the game that Quentin crowds the plate and should not react the way he does.

“Go look at the video,” Vogelsong fumed. “It was a two-seamer that ran of the plate. That guy hammers balls over the plate and he gets pissed when you throw the ball inside. It doesn’t make sense. Every time you hit a guy in this game now they think you did it on purpose. It’s tired.”

Sounds familiar.

—–

As far as the accusation that Greinke was trying to instigate a fight:

Zack Greinke was asked if he wanted to fight Carlos Quentin. “I can’t remember the last time I wanted to get in a fight with someone.”

I think most would agree that he seems like the last person who would want to start anything physical.

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As for the opposing side, Padres fans are handling this extremely classy … hahahaha no.

This doesn’t even scratch the surface of it, but just to give you a taste:

*Click To Enlarge*

*Click To Enlarge*

*Click To Enlarge*

My take: you never want to see a player charging the mound, but it’s not like it’s never happened before. (1/2)

— Nathan Veale (@The_NV) April 12, 2013

Greinke intentionally moved his body into harm’s way and charged at Quentin. He didn’t have to. That’s his own fault. (2/2)

— Nathan Veale (@The_NV) April 12, 2013

Quentin may have started it, but Greinke’s response was “challenge accepted.” You get what you ask for in this world.

— Nathan Veale (@The_NV) April 12, 2013

Remember guys, Quentin started it, we can all agree on that, but once Quentin started walking toward Greinke and then charged, Greinke didn’t run away, therefore, any injury suffered is HIS fault.

I’d hate for that guy to be in charge of the law. If you got assaulted on the street, his advice would be to not fight back or else you deserve everything that happens to you.

Logic.

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Anyway, reading through my Twitter timeline, seems like the consensus among even non-Dodger fans is “fuck Quentin”, so in conclusion:

Opening Day for the Dodgers is Monday, and since Spring Training feels like it has taken forever, it’s about damn time. Given the closeness of the start of the season though, it’s a bit odd that there are so many question marks as to what will happen with the roster.

Every team has to deal with decisions on the 24th and 25th man, but it’s rare that a team with World Series hopes is still deciding on the rotation and the left side of the starting infield. Since the team’s starting SS is out for two months and there’s a surplus with eight starting pitchers, it’s anybody’s guess as to how it all shakes out.

Personally though, I have to figure the Opening Day 25-man roster looks something like what you see below.

—–

Starting Lineup

C – A.J. Ellis
1B – Adrian Gonzalez
2B – Mark Ellis
3B – Jerry Hairston Jr.
SS – Luis Cruz
LF – Carl Crawford
CF – Matt Kemp
RF – Andre Ethier

SS – Luis Cruz is a relatively easy choice for me at this spot. He plays solid defense at the position and is the best option available at the moment.

Yes, I’ve read the recent chatter about Justin Sellers getting this spot, which I suppose is possible. However, realistically I can only see that happening if they release Juan Uribe, or they trade both Aaron Harang and Chris Capuano AND go with 11 pitchers, or they roll with no real backup outfielder (Jerry Hairston Jr./Skip Schumaker).

My experience with Ned Colletti and Dodgers roster decision-making has led me to always go with the player who has experience, who is being paid by the team, and who is currently on the 40-man roster. Thus, no Sellers for me.

3B – Jerry Hairston Jr. and Skip Schumaker should platoon here. Hairston doesn’t actually have much of a split (.712 LHP/.694 RHP), but Schumaker does (.762 RHP/.521 LHP). If Don Mattingly plays his cards right here, there an off-chance the Dodgers don’t actually lose much except upside for the two months Hanley’s out, primarily because he plays terrible defense.

The alternative of Sellers’ .607 career MLB OPS, or his ~.700 career MILB OPS outside of the moon base in Albuquerque, is not appealing at all in lieu of an option like this. That logic HAS to win out, right? RIGHT?!

LF – Carl Crawford certainly looks on pace even though his already weak throwing arm looks pathetic right now. Still, he’s swinging a bat and nothing is wrong with his legs, so I can’t see him starting the year on the DL.

—–

Bench

B – Tim Federowicz
B – Nick Punto
B – Skip Schumaker
B – Juan Uribe
B – Alex Castellanos

DL – Hanley Ramirez

IF Bench – The trio of Nick Punto, Schumaker, and Uribe meet Colletti’s three standards, as reviewed above, so they’re basically locks to me. Tim Federowicz makes the team because they cut every other catcher in camp except Matt Wallach, and he’s not making the roster.

OF Bench – Why Alex Castellanos, right? Why over Elian Herrera and Alfredo Amezaga? Amezaga is simple, as he’s not on the 40-man. Herrera, who I don’t think is a quality player anyway, doesn’t provide the potential pop off the bench the Dodgers SORELY lack at the moment. Not putting Castellanos on the bench means the Dodgers would have four hitters with no power … and Uribe, who can’t hit at all.

—–

Starting Rotation

1 – Clayton Kershaw
2 – Zack Greinke
3 – Josh Beckett
4 – Chad Billingsley
5 – Hyun Jin Ryu

The order is jumbled because of injury and what not, but this is what was projected at the end of the off-season, and while it’s been an adventure to get here, it’s basically worked out how it was supposed to.

That said, given the way the schedule looks, it’s possible that Chad Billingsley or Zack Greinke could be put on the DL and have their turn skipped a couple times while they work into shape (Greinke) or recover from injury (Billingsley). Either way though, that would only buy the team 10 games or so to do something before a roster decision would be forced.

—–

Bullpen

CL – Brandon League
ST – Kenley Jansen
RP – Ronald Belisario
RP – J.P Howell
RP – Matt Guerrier
RP – Kevin Gregg
RP – Aaron Harang

DL – Scott Elbert
DL – Ted Lilly

Lefty Reliever – Sorry Paco Rodriguez, you might be better than two, three, or even four pitchers in the bullpen, but you have options, so bye bye.

Veteran Reliever – Kevin Gregg has a 0.87 ERA over 10.1 IP this spring, while Peter Moylan is at a 7.56 ERA in 8.1 IP. Colletti must have a NRI veteran reliever on the team, so it is Gregg. Plus, he has closing experience, which automatically makes him the best!

Starter Turned Reliever – Ted Lilly has to end up on the DL because he looks fucking terrible. Don’t whine to me about language. It is what it is.

What happened to Chris Capuano? I think he gets traded and soon. I picked him to get dealt over Aaron Harang because he’s a better pitcher and more valuable to teams. That said, there’s an extremely compelling case for Capuano to be in the pen over Harang. It consists of Capuano saying that he can come out of the pen, while Mattingly said he sees Harang as a starter only. I get that, but unless the Dodgers want to get nothing in return, I can’t see why a team would settle for Harang when they could have Capuano, especially given their handedness.

Either way, I’m confident something of significance happens with a trade, because if not, I’m unsure how the pen would shake out unless they carry 13 pitchers. As mentioned earlier, an option would be putting Bills or Greinke on the DL, but that’s a stop-gap solution at best. I suppose Gregg could be let go, but we all know that would burn Ned’s soul, so I figure one of the two healthy excess starters won’t be a Dodger for long.

—–

Now we just wait for the announcement that Harang has been traded, Gregg has been cut, and Sellers will start at SS because … of course it would happen.

Dodgers designated hitter third baseman first baseman shortstop Hanley Ramirez jammed his right thumb while diving for a groundball in the World Baseball Classic and he’ll get an MRI today at the Camelback Ranch.

His WBC manager and general manager gave differing takes on the severity of it.

“I don’t think it’s bad,” Dominican coach Alfredo Griffin said.

Ramirez, playing third base for the Dominican, jammed the thumb while diving for a ground ball in the third inning. He remained in the game, even delivering a single in the fourth inning, but left after five innings.

Ramirez declined comment through a team spokesman. Dominican Manager Tony Pena said he removed Ramirez for precautionary reasons, even though Ramirez told Pena he could have gone on.

So Tony Pena didn’t think it was bad, but it’s odd to me that Hanley declined comment on it if he wasn’t worried, and maybe it’s because he is a bit, as Moises Alou sounded.

“Hanley, he jammed his thumb when he dove for that ball,” Alou said after the Dominican Republic ran off eight consecutive wins to go undefeated and win the Classic for the first time. “It was pretty swollen. He’s going to have an MRI on it [Wednesday] in Arizona.”

I guess there are differing versions of ‘serious’ at play here.

Just recently, Stan Conte spoke and although he hasn’t had an MRI yet, they’ve already ruled Hanley out for a couple weeks.

Director of medical services Stan Conte spoke with the doctor at AT&T Park, and team trainer Sue Falsone was in contact with Ramirez on Tuesday night. Both relayed their information to manager Don Mattingly.

“They painted both pictures. The optimistic side is that he had another at-bat and it’s just a sprain and it could be a couple of weeks,” Mattingly said. “The pessimistic side is that it could be something major and he’s out 8-10 weeks.”

So he’s going to miss time, regardless, and they’re obviously worried. If he misses two months of the regular season … welcome Juan Uribe.

—–

Zack Greinke threw a bullpen session on Sunday and reported no pain in his right elbow, which had been bothering him recently and been diagnosed as inflamed.

“I guess I could have something, but I’m assuming it’s going to fine to be on track to do whatever, but I don’t know for sure,” Greinke said.

“I probably threw a little more (than expected). I felt good. I was working on stuff, and trying to make sure I’m ready for a game,” Greinke said. “I’m just trying to get ready. I don’t think about it as a rehab.”

“I’m just doing what’s laid out, to give us the best chance. On our team we have other starting pitchers, and we have to be ready. They’re going to weigh all that in,” Greinke said. “I just want to do what’s best for the team. It’s not important what day [I make my first start of the season].”

It’s encouraging to see Greinke make it through a session without pain, and he’ll start a minor-league affair today with a strict pitch count in place. A.J. Ellis will catch Greinke instead of suiting up with the rest of the squad.

Manager Don Mattingly said that Greinke will pitch in a Minor League game in the afternoon, with A.J. Ellis staying back to catch instead of playing in the Dodgers’ Cactus League game against Kansas City.

The team should not feel rushed to get him back by Opening Day if he needs an extra week or two to get healthy for a long, long, long season.

—–

Chad Billingsley‘s elbow has held up all Spring Training, but unfortunately he hasn’t escaped the injury bug as a sore groin is now accompanied by a bruised index finger on his pitching hand.

The finger forced Bills out of his scheduled outing.

“I’m just taking it day by day, seeing how I feel,” Billingsley said. “I’m still playing catch, but the command is just not there because it’s bruised and swollen.”

“(We’re not) trying to force him into this one. We’re concerned about the finger from the standpoint of changing a grip, then not having a grip pressure then changing an arm angle. With everything that has gone on, we really don’t want that,” Mattingly said. “The one thing with Bills, we want to make sure he’s able to throw.”

Glad to see Don Mattingly and his staff aren’t putting pressure on Chad to tough it out and are cognizant of the fact that doing so could lead to a change in mechanics.

But how did Billingsley injure himself, you might ask?

Bunting.

Yes, Matt, bunting.

Billingsley was scratched from Wednesday’s scheduled outing due to the finger. He’s scheduled for a bullpen session instead, and game action on Saturday.

—–

Carl Crawford, who has been dealing with elbow issues during Spring Training, saw improvement Monday in his ability to swing the bat and throw the ball.

“It’s good to see him get a couple of hits, which makes him feel better and more part of it. But even better today for me was him throwing, and Stan (Conte, team director of medical services) working with him on the cuts,” Mattingly said. “He had a lot on the ball. That was really positive today.”

“I’m throwing a little bit harder at (75-80) feet,” Crawford said. “At some point the goal is to be able to hit the cut off man, I’m not sure how many feet that is but that’s the goal.”

Once Crawford can hit the cutoff man, he’ll be cleared by the staff to play left field. Until such an event actually occurs, Carl will continue to DH.

It’s great that there’s no serious issue at play here, but the quotes on his throwing aren’t exactly glowing.

Though Crawford has also made progress throwing, it seems that won’t return until the regular season. But as long as Crawford is ready with the bat, that will determine when he’s ready.

“I don’t think he’s going to be 100% (throwing). When I asked Stan (Conte, director of medical services) when is he ready to really throw and he said, ‘May.’ So it’s going to be a work in progress,” Mattingly said. “But we’re building to a point where we’re comfortable with him being out there. We’re feeling good about everything about Carl right now.”

I couldn’t imagine a worse-throwing outfielder than Juan Pierre, but it looks like we might see it.

—–

Josh Beckett has the flu, which I can only imagine he caught from Ted Lilly.

Regardless, Beckett did start a simulated game against three minor-leaguers and Jerry Hairston Jr..

“Everything went good,” manager Don Mattingly reported. “He got better as the game went on. He was happy about being able to get it in. He was worried that if he did it in a [Cactus League] game and he had a long inning, he wouldn’t get his pitch count up and the up-and-downs. He seemed to be happy with it.”

Beckett threw 76 pitches and went through the up-and-down of six innings, pitching and resting in between.

Beckett’s had an excellent spring, so hopefully he won’t miss too much time – he’s been under the weather two days thus far – as he looks to carry his exhibition success into the meaningful regular season.

—–

Chris Withrow, who had been out with back spasms all Spring Training, returned briefly only to be injured by a liner off the shin.

Withrow escaped with a bruise from the Paul Goldschmidt shot, and he said he expects to be back in action in a couple of days.

“It’s been a pretty adventurous spring,” said Withrow. “I came in ready to go. For my back to go out the second day was kind of frustrating. Then the second batter, after seven months off, that’s not ideal either. Things happen for a reason.”

The guy just can’t seem to stay healthy, even when it comes to living life off the field, as a recent close-call indicates.

Things were adventurous for Withrow even before Spring Training started. He and his wife survived an offseason rollover auto accident with only minor injuries.

Hopefully he can find some good health in his future, as you can never have enough live arms with strikeout stuff.

—–

Dee Gordon is day-to-day after slightly spraining his ankle in a collision at home, according to Don Mattingly.

The shortstop walked off the field and back to the clubhouse on his own, and the injury isn’t believed to be serious.

Chad provided us with visual proof of Gordon attempting to run over (?) Miguel Montero on an overall laughable play.

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Greg Zakwin is the founder of the site Plaschke Thy Sweater Is Argyle. Follow him on Twitter @ArgyledPlaschke.

Baseball fans love to talk about clutch plays and clutch players, and Dodgers fans are no exception, but like with a pitcher’s best and worst pitches, there tends to be a lack of evidence presented. As such, I decided to find some basis for clutch plays and clutch players, courtesy of the WPA and Clutch statistics.

WPA

Most sabermetric statistics are context neutral — they do not consider the situation of a particular event or how some plays are more crucial to a win than others. While wOBA rates all home runs as equal, we know intuitively that a home run in the third inning of a blowout is less important to that win than a home run in the bottom of the ninth inning of a close game. Win Probability Added (WPA) captures this difference by measuring how individual players affect their team’s win expectancy on a per-play basis.

Clutch

In the words of David Appelman, this calculation measures, “…how much better or worse a player does in high leverage situations than he would have done in a context neutral environment.” It also compares a player against himself, so a player who hits .300 in high leverage situations when he’s an overall .300 hitter is not considered clutch.

So that’s the foundation for this post, and since that’s now been established, let’s get on with it, shall we?

As always, visuals have been provided because, let’s be honest, everything is better with visuals.

—–

I feel like it’s necessary to point out that none of this is predictive of the future or telling of the past. It’s a post about stuff that happened in 2012. That’s all.

In other words, please don’t link back to this while saying, “LOOK! THIS DUDE IS SUCH A CHOKER, BRO!” No.

—–

Top Five David Carradine Choke Jobs Of 2012

1. Andre Ethier – -39.3%

Horrifying.

With the bases loaded and one down in the bottom of the eighth, and the Dodgers trailing the rival Giants 2-1, Andre Ethier comes up and … yeah.

…

2. Jerry Hairston Jr. – -34.1%

Nobody out in the bottom of the ninth and trailing by a run, Jerry Hairston Jr. decides it’s a sweet time to ground into a double play while there’s runners on first and second, thus killing a massive opportunity.

3. Adam Kennedy – -33.6%

Second and third and one out in the bottom of the ninth and trailing by one run, Adam Kennedy did what he did best in 2012: rolling over and chopping a ball to the right side.

Extra scorn for almost killing Matt Kemp.

4. Tony Gwynn Jr. – -29.1%

Just looking.

Down by a run in the bottom of the ninth with runners on second and third, Tony Gwynn Jr. needed to put the ball in play and give himself a chance. Instead, he did his best impersonation of a statue.

5. Mark Ellis – -25.7%

Bottom of the tenth and trailing by a run, the Dodgers put men on first and third with one out, but Mark Ellis … did that.

Bonus anger for doing it against Jonathan Papelbon.

—–

Commentary? So much fail.

—–

Top Five Chokeiest Dodgers Of 2012 – Field Player Division

1. A.J. Ellis – -1.62
2. Adam Kennedy – -1.14
3. Andre Ethier – -1.01
4. Jerry Hairston Jr. – -0.95
5. Shane Victorino – -0.37

Mike Scioscia’s Tragic Illness: Arguing for patience and perspective regarding Yasiel Puig.

I know he looks awfully impressive (dude looks like he could be on your fantasy football team), and I’ve liked what I’ve seen as well, but I really do believe people are getting way ahead of themselves.

Baseball Prospectus: The Dodgers might have a platoon partner for Andre Ethier internally in Jerry Hairston Jr.

—–

Eye On Baseball: Fox Sports mistook Hyun Jin Ryu for Jae Kuk Ryu. Swell.

But hey, at least they got it to within the same ethnicity! Progress!

Los Angeles Times: Guggenheim Partners is being investigated by the SEC due to their relationship with Michael Milken.

Doesn’t appear to be anything to get spooked about just yet, but geez, that’s the last thing this franchise would need.

—–

FanGraphs: Umpires are actually getting a lot better.

Granted, it won’t stop me from complaining, but it’s better than regression.

MLB Trade Rumors: Want to be an MLB GM? Here are general managers giving you advice.

The Dodgers, as a club, have a ton of injuries or guys rehabbing, so I expect this feature to be busy all season.

Two of the most important injury cases will start off today, as we get timeline updates on Matt Kemp and Carl Crawford.

Manager Don Mattingly said March 1 is a very rough target date for Kemp to get into games coming off left shoulder surgery. Crawford will likely be later than that as he returns from Tommy John elbow reconstruction.

“I don’t go definitely March 1 with Matt, because it might not be until March 5 or March 7 when he’s ready to play. That doesn’t mean anything’s wrong.”

Mattingly said both are likely to break in as designated hitters at first.

“Both guys I’ll DH a little early on,” Mattingly said on Friday. “Carl more likely [than Kemp]. He won’t get into games until the medical tests [clear their participation]. I don’t want him in a game and reacting and doing something like spinning to make a throw that we don’t want him doing.”

Kemp is doing all baseball activities, while Crawford is still on a conservative throwing program to rebuild arm strength with the hope that he will be ready by Opening Day.

Crawford is able to hit and participate in most workouts, but he is limited in throwing drills and hasn’t yet thrown beyond 90 feet.

Kemp will be delayed a bit, so he’s not on a completely normal schedule, but he sounds healthy aside from that and should be ready to start the season.

Crawford? Not so much. He seems intent on making an Opening Day appearance, but there’s no logic in rushing him back, especially given that he’s had the past two years submarined by injuries, and exposing him to injury risk by playing him at like 75% seems incredibly stupid.

——

Elian Herrera, who got buzzed in the helmet yesterday, appears to be fine.

Dodgers utility man Elian Herrera narrowly escaped injury Sunday when White Sox pitcher Jake Petricka grazed his helmet with a fastball.

“If I didn’t move, maybe I die right now,” said Herrera. “It was coming right at my face. Not good.”

Herrera remained in the game until the Dodgers’ half of the inning ended, then was removed for precautionary purposes, but said he was fine.

Considering that he’s one of the few options the Dodgers have for the backup center fielder spot, his health may end up being important the club.

—–

Tony Gwynn Jr. apparently tried to play through a sports hernia in 2012 but is healthy now.

Gwynn, 30, played with an injury that was never discussed by him or the club. He believes he suffered a sports hernia lifting weights after the 2011 season, but he never had an MRI to diagnose it.

“I didn’t want to know,” he said Friday. “I wasn’t having surgery no matter what I had.”

He was hurting last Spring Training, hurting when Matt Kemp went down with that hamstring injury in early May and the relapse in late May. Needing to fill in for Kemp on almost an everyday basis for several months, Gwynn’s already injured body finally broke down.

You hear this a ton, but it rarely ever works out the way players intend. I totally understand the motivation to play through major injury, but in the end, they usually end up performing terribly and aggravating the injury, which hurts both the team and their career.

—–

Jerry Hairston Jr. is recovering from hip labrum surgery.

There was some measure of satisfaction for Jerry Hairston on Saturday just being in the starting lineup for the Dodgers’ exhibition opener.

Five months ago, bedridden after hip surgery, he doubted it was possible.

“It wasn’t easy,” said Hairston. “I worked really hard to get back. But for the first three months, I didn’t know if I’d be able to play at this level now.”

Unlike other Dodgers coming off surgery, it doesn’t appear as if the injury will limit him going forward.

—–

As mentioned in the other feature, Eliezer Alfonzo, who signed a minor-league deal in the off-season with an invitation to Spring Training, has been felled by dengue fever and was replaced in major-league camp by Matt Wallach. Eliezer will report to the minor-league portion of Camelback Ranch once healthy enough to do so.

The 2013 projection for the Dodgers from Dan Szymborski‘s ZiPS system was released last week, and given that it’s probably my favorite forecasting tool, it’s worth a look to see how the team fared.

Forecasting is not a complete science, obviously, and I’ll address some of the potential pitfalls as we go along, but it’s better to use objective tools like these than the hopes/dreams of fans or the bitterness/wishes of haters.

To start us off, how does the team fare, generally speaking? A solid playoff contender, for sure, but a super team? Doesn’t seem likely.

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The Field Players

Despite all the hype over the recent acquisitions, the key cogs in this machine are still Clayton Kershaw and Matt Kemp. It’s a promising sign then, that Kemp projects at a 144 OPS+ and the system has confidence in him continuing to put up offensive numbers in the ~.900 OPS range. His defense in center still lags below average, but his bat more than makes up for it. His playing time projection has dropped due to his injury woes last season, and quite frankly, it’s hard to fault it for that. Regardless, he still figures to be the most valuable field player on the team.

Adrian Gonzalez is slated to be another bright spot, as ZiPS pegs him to bounceback a bit, though not as much as some want, clocking in at an ~.830 OPS/128 OPS+. That would still be his lowest OPS+ since 2008 (besides 2012, of course), but it’s a marked improvement considering his age and negatively trending skills. A-Gon compensates for that lagging bat a bit by putting up plus defense almost worth a win by itself. Hanley Ramirez factors in as yet another bounceback candidate, projecting at a 115 OPS+, which is an upgrade over last year’s 106 and is closer to his pre-2011 production. Defensively, even his horribad -8 run defensive rating is optimistic to me, as he was truly terrible with the glove last year. Given that I already wanted to barf seeing him trying to turn a double play in 2012, I wouldn’t be surprised at all to see him put up horrid defensive numbers after basically not playing the position all of spring.

Unfortunately, that’s where a lot of the offensive optimism ends. Luis Cruz checks in at 84 OPS+ (106 last year), which will anger many fans, but is completely reasonable given the track record. He remains valuable through plus defense, though given the sample size, there’s reason to be skeptical there as well. A.J. Ellis at 96 OPS+ (118) is another depressing but completely logical projection, as evidenced by everybody’s surprise in 2012 at his potent bat. Andre Ethier at 112 OPS+ (123) is hard to figure for me, because he has been consistently putting up ~120 OPS+ seasons even if it has come down from the ~130 OPS+ range two years ago. I suppose the projection system thinks he’ll get old in a hurry … or maybe it just thinks he’ll face an inordinately high amount of lefties. Mark Ellis at 81 OPS+ (93) shouldn’t be much of a surprise considering he’s 36 and put up an 80 OPS+ at Coors Field in 2011.

The last guy of the starters is Carl Crawford, who is the enigma of the 2013 season. He checks in at 104, which is notable because it’s basically his career OPS+ and it’s about what he did in limited time in 2012 over in Boston. That’s of particular note for me, because what he did in Boston in 2012 can be attributed to a mechanical fix that I pointed out in an article for Baseball Prospectus. Understandably, his playing time checks in low, but if he can produce like he did in 2012 but over a whole season, the Dodgers will be much better for it.

Overall, after fixing the playing time of A.J., adjusting Ethier’s offense up a bit, and adjusting Hanley’s defense down a bit, the starting lineup totaled about 22 WAR.

—–

The Bench & The Prospects

Assuming a bench of Tim Federowicz, Scott Van Slyke or Alex Castellanos, Jerry Hairston Jr., Nick Punto, and Skip Schumaker, we’re looking at around 3 WAR here after playing time is adjusted back to realistic bench levels. I’m guessing Alfredo Amezaga or Tony Gwynn Jr. work their way in somehow, but a five-man bench seems likely initially if the Dodgers can’t deal multiple pitchers before the season starts. Neither player would affect the WAR projection much though.

Honestly? I have to hope the Dodgers do something to improve the bench, because the current configuration looks rather mediocre, and the other options are keeping Juan Uribe and/or Elian Herrera. Yuck.

The good news is that Joc Pederson, T-Fed, SVS, and Castle are projected to be solid at the MLB level, though it sees Dee Gordon basically languishing behind.

—–

The Rotation

Clayton Kershaw is simply a beast, and he figures to check in with a 75 FIP-. This might seem high considering his 2011 and 2012 ERA- figures of 63 and 67, respectively, but when you consider that Felix Hernandez clocks in at 78 FIP- for 2013, you get the picture.

What might surprise is how close new acquisition Zack Greinke comes in behind him, as he figures to put up an FIP- of 81. Granted, he has always projected favorably, as his career FIP- is 80, while his career ERA- is 88, but even adjusting slightly for that, there’s a definite case there for the best 1-2 punch in the majors.

Unfortunately, this is where it gets murky, as Chad Billingsley has the stuff to be the #3, but if I were a betting man, I would bet his elbow implodes before July. He projects at 92 FIP-, which would put him around last year’s performance, which was his arguably his best season since 2008. However, given the nature of his injury and its history in the league, you can basically never rely on him to stay healthy again until he has Tommy John surgery.

Next in the pecking order are Josh Beckett, who comes in below-average at 103, and foreign import Hyun Jin Ryu, who comes in well below-average at 116. As mentioned before, the scouting reports for Beckett match this projection, as he’s no longer a front-line starter due to his decrease in velocity. However, if he can manage to learn to pitch a bit more, he still has the curve to perhaps slot in as a #3 more than a #4. Ryu is a case where I would take any projection with a mound of salt, because there’s hardly anything to base objective projections on. Personally, I don’t think Ryu has the stuff to be a #2, nor do I think he’ll be a #3 on a team with a $250 million payroll, but he should slot in comfortably in the back-end of the rotation for years. I would project something slightly below-average for 2013 and then hope for better.

The rotation is a strong point because it has both arguably the best 1-2 punch in the majors and depth, with Chris Capuano (108 FIP-) and Aaron Harang (114 FIP) presumably traded for upgrades (or maybe kept somehow?), and it checks in at about 17 WAR.

—–

The Bullpen & The Prospects

As of right now, I’m assuming a bullpen of Brandon League, Kenley Jansen, Ronald Belisario, Javy Guerra, Matt Guerrier, J.P. Howell, and Ted Lilly.

Jansen is the best of the bunch (63 FIP-) and League projects a distant second (92 FIP-), but Belisario has the most upside in these projections (101 FIP-). After that, Guerra, Guerrier, and Howell are all around replacement level. Lilly projects as a league-average pitcher, assuming he’s healthy, which would be a boon to a team that has a ticking time bomb in the rotation.

As far as prospects go, ZiPS thinks Chris Reed could be a replacement-level fill-in right now, but Zach Lee, Matt Magill, and Garrett Gould need more seasoning. And for all of you who have Stephen Fife wet dreams (yes, you’re out there), he projects at a 4.91 FIP, so keep it in your pants.

Speaking of replacement level, that especially applies to the Dodgers bullpen because of Shawn Tolleson, Scott Elbert, Steven Ames, and Paco Rodriguez, so the 4 WAR projection for this pen figures to be solid.

—–

Team Projection

A replacement-level team figures to win 43 games, and the team with the lowest amount of wins to get into the playoffs last year was the Cardinals at 88 wins, so 42 WAR puts you in the contender range and 45 WAR makes you viable, while 50 WAR will generally make a team a safe bet to be in the postseason. The Dodgers total 46 WAR, which puts them well within the playoff hunt: good but not great.

The Dodgers basically project neck-and-neck with the rival Giants, while the D-Backs lag behind a bit by maybe a half dozen wins or so, but they’re well within striking distance as well.

So make no mistake, the Dodgers recent spending habits did not make them an elite team, as the money simply duct-taped over both a flawed team and farm system depleted by Frank McCourt‘s ownership and Ned Colletti‘s questionable decisions. But that’s not to denigrate the job the new owners have done, as they turned the franchise into a legitimate playoff contender seemingly overnight, which is still saying a lot about what money can do.

Granted, “we gave you a team that has the chance to make the playoffs” is not what fans want to hear, but it’s an acceptable scenario as they lay the foundation to rebuild the franchise the correct way in their own minds. The 2013 projections might not reflect world-beaters like most seem to expect, but it’s a projection based on historical trends rather than hopes and dreams.

The 2013 Dodgers are indeed a team with a lot of upside, and if everything breaks correctly, they could very well end up being one of the best teams in the league, but they also carry a ton of inherent age and injury risk, which is why the projections come in understandably conservative. Either way, if nothing else, this team figures to be never boring.

Yes, this is the final installment of the 2012 Season Review for the Dodgers, and if you want to catch up on the others, then you can check out this tag here.

Otherwise, in the tables listed below, I have calculated the WAR (along with its components), value, and surplus value of every player on the Dodgers payroll in 2012.

It’s not meant to be taken literally (“A.J. Ellis is a better player than Matt Kemp!“), but I always learn stuff about the team that I hadn’t previously realized when I do it.

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The three best players on the Dodgers, according to WAR, were A.J. Ellis, Matt Kemp, and Andre Ethier, in order. The most valuable players, according to surplus value, were A.J. Ellis, Luis Cruz, and Mark Ellis.

Best hitters? Kemp, Ethier, and A.J. Ellis. Best baserunners? Dee Gordon, Shane Victorino, and Hanley Ramirez. Best fielders? Mark Ellis, Jerry Hairston Jr., and Cruz.

The three worst players on the Dodgers, according to WAR, were Gordon, Juan Rivera, and Alex Castellanos. The least valuable players, according to surplus value (excluding dead money), were Juan Uribe, James Loney, and Rivera.

Worst hitters? Gordon, Tony Gwynn Jr., and Uribe. Worst baserunners? A.J. Ellis, Adrian Gonzalez, and Matt Treanor. Worst fielders? Gordon, Kemp, Ramirez.

In related news, did you realize the Dodgers are STILL paying Juan Pierre? Good grief.

The three best pitchers on the Dodgers, according to WAR, were Clayton Kershaw, Chad Billingsley, and Chris Capuano, in order. The most valuable pitchers, according to surplus value, were Kershaw, Kenley Jansen, and Capuano.

The three worst pitchers on the Dodgers, according to WAR, were John Ely, Matt Guerrier, and Mike MacDougal. The least valuable players, according to surplus value (excluding dead money), were Ted Lilly, Guerrier, and Ely.

In related news, you can see why the Dodgers want to upgrade their rotation, as the team defense was decidedly average, but the staff RA WAR outperformed their FIP WAR by six wins.

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If there are any questions, let me know below.

Luis Cruz

I can safely say that I’m not the only one who had no idea who Luis Cruz was at the outset of the 2012 season. By the end of it, the once unknown 28-year-old journeyman had become a cult hero in Los Angeles. Heading into 2013, it appears he’ll not only hold down a roster spot, but be the Dodgers starting third baseman.

Now whether that’s something a team with a $200 million payroll should be doing, however, is another matter entirely. Others seem to be having difficulty wrapping their head around it as well, probably because heading into 2012, Cruz’s major-league career consisted of 169 plate appearances spread over three seasons and 56 games. He was atrocious at the dish in that limited sample size, and had been a career minor-leaguer, save for those small cups of coffee.

Following injuries to Dee Gordon (thumb) and Juan Uribe (playing baseball like he plays life), Cruz was called up in early-July and spent time at third, short, and second. Most of that time — 51 games and 48 starts — was at the hot corner, where he shined with the glove, posting a 6.6 UZR and a +8 on the DRS scale. He was very good with the leather overall, saving ~5.5 runs in total in 2012. His play at third was especially impressive considering he had never before manned the position in the bigs.

That last sentence is an important one with Cruz, because fans are quick to make judgments when they first see a player perform in The Show, and Cruz has become a savor in the eyes of many fans. If injuries don’t derail plans and we assume that he continues to flash the leather at third in 2013, Cruz can be an adequate starter for the Dodgers based on his defensive showing in 2012 alone. However, if Cruz’s defense proves to be a mirage, then his offense probably won’t cut it because it’s a strong candidate to regress. Yes, that’s still better than Uribe, who we’ll get to momentarily, but simply being better than Emo Juan isn’t enough to be a productive major-leaguer.

The main problems are that Cruz doesn’t walk (3% in 2012), has limited power (.134 ISO), and is just an average baserunner. Combine those factors with an inflated BABIP (.320), and he’s looking at a less impressive 2013 triple-slash. Oh, and he swings at just about everything, including a ridiculous 41.1% of pitches outside of the strike zone, compared with a league average of just under 31%. That’s not a great indicator unless you’re Vladimir Guerrero talent-wise, and Cruz is obviously not (who is?).

Even for a guy who posted a ~2.3 WAR in 2012, given the rational concerns with him repeating that performance, a starting gig in 2013 is still a godsend. If the only options are starting Cruz or Uribe, then sure, Cruz is the easy choice, but his career minor-league line in 12 seasons and 1200+ plate appearances of .261/.296/.394/.690 speaks volumes to me, and it’s a far greater indicator of what to expect going forward than 296 plate appearances this past season.

Cruz deservedly has a spot on the team, but it probably should be as a bench player, not a starter. And given where he came from prior to the Dodgers, that’s not a diss, but rather a compliment that he’s earned his keep.

Juan Uribe

Juan Uribe managed to make it through an entire season — in which he hit an unseemly .191/.258/.284/.542 with a .245 wOBA — without being cut. He spent some time on the DL, but more of it riding the pine, going weeks down the stretch without seeing the field.

Spending any significant amount of time on him is a nauseating notion, so let’s just quickly wrap this up and note that Uribe is heading into the final year of the atrocious deal Ned Colletti handed out to him prior to the 2011 campaign. Yes, he still swings at everything, is averse to drawing a walk, and will probably still find work somewhere because he can handle himself in the field, saving ~3.7 runs in 2012.

Whatever.

Adam Kennedy

Adam Kennedy also found himself at third last season, starting 25 games and appearing in 39. He’s pretty much the opposite of Uribe, as he’s bad with the leather (about a run in debt to the Dodgers overall) but mediocre with the lumber (.262/.345/.357/.702 with a .310 wOBA overall). And by mediocre, I mean bad, but better than anyone actually expected him to be.

Jerry Hairston Jr.

One last player of note to find himself at third last season was Jerry Hairston Jr., who started 23 games and appeared in 32 at third.

He swung the bat well when playing there, to the tune of a .315/.344/.435/.779 line in just under 100 plate appearances. Perhaps most impressively though, he got off to a ridiculously hot start there defensively, which helped him rate well with the glove (2.6 UZR and a DRS of +2) even though he did struggle later in 2012.

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Greg Zakwin is the founder of the site Plaschke Thy Sweater Is Argyle. Follow him on Twitter @ArgyledPlaschke.

Mark Ellis

Signed to a back-loaded two-year deal in the off-season, Mark Ellis only played in 110 games after nearly losing a leg on the play you see above, posting a ~2.7 WAR in the process. 35 now and turning 36 years of age next summer, Ellis can’t afford to lose anything physically beyond what Father Time was already taking away from him, particularly when so much of his value is derived from his glove. At the end of the day, his health might be the biggest factor in his productivity.

After posting just a .248/.288/.346/.634 line with a putrid .282 wOBA in 2011 (Ellis did finish strong though after moving to the friendly air of Coors Field), he swung the bat better in 2012, posting a .258/.333/.364/.697 slash line with a .312 wOBA. That’s still not very good offensively, but as a second baseman, Ellis isn’t paid to hit like Matt Kemp. As long as he can field the position to the degree he did in 2012 (~6.9 runs saved) and has throughout his career, he can be a solid complementary regular. Although who knows, if Don Mattingly didn’t ask him and every other number-two hitter for the Dodgers to bunt so much, maybe Ellis would have recorded a few more base-knocks.

#StopBunting, Donnie Baseball.

Anyways, slated to make $5.25 million this upcoming campaign, with a club option worth almost $6 million clams for 2014, Ellis will need to stave off old age for at least another year. Speaking of the effects of old age, the major leg injury he suffered could plausibly have had an effect on his performance at the plate (.273/.373/.364/.737 pre-injury, .251/.314/.364/.678 post-injury), though his second-half slide could also be attributed to the fact that Ellis isn’t and hasn’t ever been a great hitter.

On the bright side, Ellis did walk twice as much in ’12 as he did in ’11 (8.6/4.2 BB%), which would come in handy as the number two-hitter in front of The Bison, Adrian Gonzalez, Andre Ethier, and Hanley Ramirez. Well, it would if, you know, Donnie didn’t take the bat out of his hands constantly to pointlessly give up an out.

Jerry Hairston Jr.

Subbing in for an injured Ellis, Jerry Hairston Jr. put up a .231/.301/.330/.631 slash line in 30 games at the position before succumbing to a season-ending hip injury which required surgery. Overall, Hairston hit .273/.342/.387/.729 with a .320 wOBA.

The Swiss Army knife of players signed a back-loaded two-year deal of his own, and will make $3.75 million in 2013 while serving as a super-sub and right-handed bat with a bit of pop off the bench.

Other “Notables”

The Dodgers had a total of eight guys suit up at second, none of whom beyond Ellis and Hairston really necessitate any mention. However, it’s worth noting that Ivan De Jesus is no longer with the team, and yes, Adam Kennedy really did spend the whole season with the Dodgers, so all that wasn’t a nightmare (well, it was a nightmare, but a real one). I’ll say this for Kennedy: he walked a surprising and inordinate amount of times, at least based on his career numbers (11.4% in 2012, 6.6% for his career).

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Greg Zakwin is the founder of the site Plaschke Thy Sweater Is Argyle. Follow him on Twitter @ArgyledPlaschke.

Clayton Kershaw was scratched from his last start due to a hip injury, for which he received a cortisone shot. His start was taken by Joe Blanton. Clayton hopes to return and start on Tuesday.

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Kenley Jansen, barring any unforeseen setback, will pitch again this season before undergoing offseason surgery on his heart. He won’t pitch within the next ten days – at the least – as he waits for his blood-thinner medication to leave his system.

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Chad Billingsley had another platelet injection in his right elbow before seeing his season end as he was placed on the 60-day DL. Paco Rodriguez was called up and took Bills’ roster spot. Now all that remains is whether or not he ends up needing surgery. Bills will resume throwing in two weeks, after tests revealed a partial tear of the UCL in the aforementioned right elbow.

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Randy Choate took a grounder off of his pitching hand but should be fine, as he said a couple of fingers were struck but no major damage came from it. With both Scott Elbert and Ted Lilly rehabbing and Paco a rookie, the Dodgers are short on southpaws in the pen, making Choate’s continued health vital.

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Javy Guerra was placed on the 15-day DL with an oblique strain, and there’s a real chance his season is over.

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Adam Kennedy injured his groin and is likely out for the season, saying he “felt a pop.”

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If Ted Lilly – who threw a simulated game earlier in the week – returns, it will be in a relief role.

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Jerry Hairston Jr. is scheduled to undergo surgery on his ailing hip on Monday.

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Chris Withrow was transferred to the 60-day DL after a momentary call-up in order to allow Bobby Abreu to be placed back on the 40-man roster.

Chad Billingsley is back on the 15-day DL for the second time this season, and once again it’s due to right elbow soreness. Bills had an MRI that revealed inflammation and will have further tests once the inflammation has subsided.

Chad left his last start early after feeling something in the elbow on a pitch. He had been on quite the run since returning from his first elbow injury, and will be replaced in the rotation by newly-acquired Josh Beckett.

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Shane Victorino was scratched from Saturday’s game due to tightness in his back. Dylan Hernandez reports there may be some hip tightness as well, though the club only reported the back issue. Shane returned to the starting lineup on Sunday.

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Ted Lilly, rehabbing with the Rancho Cucamonga Quakes, felt “something … in his back or something”, according to Don Mattingly, and will have his next scheduled start skipped.

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Yasiel Puig, the Dodgers highly-paid Cuban import, was out of the lineup for a few games due to a bruised right heel, according to the Quakes official Twitter page. He returned to bang out four hits on Sunday though, so he should be fine.

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Matt Guerrier continues rehabbing in Rancho.

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Jerry Hairston Jr. is done for the season, as he’s scheduled to undergo surgery on his ailing left hip.

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Blake Hawksworth had arthroscopic shoulder surgery and is done for the year.

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Within the last two weeks, Chris Withrow, Chris Reed, Matt Wallach, and Angelo Ponte have all spent time on the 7-day DL, while Kazuya Takano was placed on the 60-day DL.

The involvement of Dee Gordon and Jerry Hairston Jr. in this MLB Fan Cave bit is obviously correlated to their current injuries.

The lesson here is to never do this again.

Yesterday, a slide by Paul Goldschmidt of the Diamondbacks drew the ire of Jerry Hairston Jr., who was playing second base. Hairston wants Goldschmidt suspended for the slide, basically calling it dirty, and you can judge for yourself above.

The bad blood between the Dodgers and D-backs boiled again Wednesday after a late takeout slide of Los Angeles second baseman Jerry Hairston by Arizona’s Paul Goldschmidt.

Hairston wasn’t seriously injured, but he took exception, calling the slide dirty and calling for Goldschmidt to be disciplined.

“He should be suspended. It’s totally unacceptable,” the 15-year veteran Hairston said about Goldschmidt, in his first full season in the Major Leagues. “He jumped over the bag to get to me. He was seven feet past the bag. It was terrible.”

Goldschmidt was called out by second-base umpire Manny Gonzalez but was not called for interfering with the Dodgers’ attempt to turn a double play.

“I didn’t realize he was upset until later,” Goldschmidt said. “My thinking is Justin hit that ground ball and they could possibly turn a double play, [so] go in there and break it up. Obviously you’re not trying to hurt anyone, but you’re in there trying to make it so he can’t get the throw off. Hopefully he’s all right.”

Hairston told a different story.

“Luckily I did everything right,” said Hairston, who spun and pulled his leg at impact. “When Upton hit me [on a fifth-inning double-play], it was totally clean. What Goldschmidt did was unacceptable. I looked at the video. It was atrocious. If Major League Baseball doesn’t suspend him, it’s unbelievable.

“The guy at first [Upton] should have been out for that. He [Goldschmidt] actually started the slide after the bag. He got me good. You know, play the game right. Major League Baseball says it watches every game. If they watched this game, he gets suspended. He’s a big part of their team, but he hasn’t been around the game long enough. He’s got to know better than that. He could have broken my leg.”

Some Dodgers suspected that Goldschmidt was motivated by a previous at-bat, when Dodgers reliever Javy Guerra took over for starter Stephen Fife with one out and a runner on first base in the fifth inning and drilled Goldschmidt in the shoulder with his first pitch.

As you all know by now, I’m not a fan of takeout slides or collisions in baseball, generally because they’re pointless and don’t prove anything.

As the rules currently stand though, there’s zero chance anything happens to Goldschmidt, and nothing should, because he was technically well within his rights to make the slide. Plus, he didn’t go in cleats up on his leg. However, one can see why Hairston would think it’s dirty, especially given it came after Goldschmidt getting hit with the pitch, as Goldschmidt quite clearly kicks his leg out at Hairston’s plant foot. I see some people arguing that it’s part of the slide, but please, if you’ve ever slid before, you’d know damn well you can control where the lead foot ends up.

Honestly, I think both sides are understandable. Goldschmidt was probably angry and wanted to take out his frustration on the Dodgers and did so legally, albeit a bit dirty. Hairston’s complaining stems from probably seeing his season flash before his eyes and because … well … it was a bit dirty.

Either way, I don’t have a problem with either player in this instance, but one thing’s for sure: it won’t be easing tensions between the two teams any time soon.

So with the Dodgers basically looking at everybody, and with the Carlos Lee trade falling through, the team has now revealed five teams that their scouts are watching intently as potential trading partners.

Dodgers scouts have an increased presence with Milwaukee, as well as continued coverage of the Chicago Cubs, Colorado, Philadelphia and Minnesota.

The players believed in their sights include Brewers sluggers Aramis Ramirez and Corey Hart; Cubs starting pitcher Ryan Dempster; Rockies outfielder Michael Cuddyer; and Phillies starting pitcher Cole Hamels. At the top of the club’s wish list are a productive corner infielder and a starting pitcher.

I thought the five players were intriguing options, so I decided to take a detailed look at all of them.

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Aramis Ramirez – 3B – Brewers

Dodgers third basemen on the year have combined to go .245/.319/.340/.659, and that’s being kind because utility man Jerry Hairston Jr. has a .326/.380/.500/.880 line in 50 plate appearances there. Hairston operates best as a super utility guy though, so Ramirez would essentially be a Juan Uribe (.200/.259/.280/.539)/Adam Kennedy (.228/.319/.289/.608)replacement.

Ramirez has hit .263/.341/.471/.812 so far in 2012 and he projects to improve on that a bit at .274/.341/.484/.824. Uribe and Kennedy are about average defensively, while Ramirez is well below average, bordering on poor. There’s a five to ten run gap on defense that Ramirez will have to make up, and that he does. For the rest of 2012, Ramirez projects to be about 20-25 runs better offensively than the combination of men he’s replacing. If you buy into his splits, which for his career have him ~60 OPS points higher in the second half, the disparity could be even more significant. Also, despite being 34, his peripherals show little sign of decline.

Of course, there’s the problem of the contract that the team would be taking on. Making $6 million in 2012, $10 million in 2013, and $16 million in 2014 with a 2015 mutual option/$4 million buyout, the Dodgers would hypothetically be on the hook for about $32 million for 2.5 years of service.

A bit painful but perhaps not overly terrible for a 3-4 WAR player, even one due to regress because of age. Ramirez would basically have to be worth around 7 or 8 WAR to make it work, and he figures to be in the neighborhood of that figure. Furthermore, he plays third, and unlike the corner outfield positions, third basemen are a much rarer asset. This is particularly true for the Dodgers, who have a complete dearth of internal options. Now factor in that the free agent market might come down to Maicier Izturis, and Ramirez isn’t such a terrible shot to take.

For the Brewers part, the Dodgers will probably have to wait until the last minute. Milwaukee sits a mere seven games back of first right now, which may seem like a lot, but with two wild card spots this year and the Cardinals late charge in 2011 fresh in everybody’s memory, they’ll probably be taking this decision down to the wire. One winning streak and they may not end up selling off at all.

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Corey Hart – RF – Brewers

Dodgers left fielders have hit .242/.300/.333/.632 on the year, which is amazingly bad. Hart would be a boon for the team, as he’s currently at .251/.313/.505/.818 and projects to hit .264/.327/.484/.811 the rest of the way. An average fielder, he would improve that area of the outfield as well, as they are basically stuck with Juan Rivera and Bobby Abreu as their primary options.

Hart is signed through 2013 and makes $9 million in 2012 and $10 million in 2013. His contract is more than reasonable for a 3-4 WAR player, and he’s a potential addition who could make upwards of a 25-35 run difference over the rest of the year (that’s being conservative, really).

Like Ramirez though, he may never become available, as the Brewers may never end up selling.

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Ryan Dempster – RHP – Cubs

I already addressed his potential addition here, but his acquisition makes even more sense now with Ted Lilly being transferred to the 60-day DL, health unknown, as Dempster would be a huge improvement over Nate Eovaldi.

The Cubs are 14 games back and are shopping everybody, so he’ll be on the market.

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Cole Hamels – LHP – Phillies

I like Hamels for the same reason I like Dempster, except he’s even better than Dempster and has a longer track record of excellence without the immediate injury history. He’s a consistent 3.5-4.5 WAR pitcher and a solid #1/#2 to slot behind Clayton Kershaw if the Dodgers can make the playoffs.

A 2.79 ERA/3.05 FIP/3.02 xFIP/3.03 SIERA in 2011 and a 3.08 ERA/3.28 FIP/3.24 xFIP/3.25 SIERA in 2012 basically says it all.

Hamels makes $15 million in 2012 and is slated to be a free agent, one that will probably be pursued by the Dodgers either way. The Phillies are 12 games back and should be sellers.

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Michael Cuddyer – RF – Rockies

Like Hart, he would be replacing a terrible concoction of outfielders that the Dodgers have trotted out in left field. Like Hart, he’s a solid hitter. Putting up a .284/.346/.459/.805 line in 2011, he has dropped a bit to .260/.313/.480/.793 in 2012, but projects to finish at a .281/.338/.485/.823 clip. Unlike Hart, he’s a rather poor defender, and I do have concerns that Coors Field is playing insane again, yet he’s still down a bit. That concern is especially true because he’s 33.

As far as his contract goes, he makes $10.5 million in 2012, 2013, and 2014, with performance bonuses that could up it by $1.5 million in 2014. A reasonable deal for a 2.5-3.5 WAR player, but I think Hart is both the better overall player and the one with less risk.

The Rockies are 14 games back at the moment and surely would be willing to sell, even if it’s within the division.

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Overall, all of the rumored players mentioned represent significant improvements to the team. Unlike Carlos Lee, they are likely to be difference makers for the Dodgers, thus making it understandable that they surrender assets for them. Whether the trades are workable or worth it obviously still depends on what the Dodgers give up and the finances involved, but if these are the types of players the team is pursuing, they definitely seem headed down the right road.

Via Vin Scully Is My Homeboy

So according to Alex Angert of MLB.com, the Dodgers are winning because they like each other … or something to that effect.

But in the Dodgers’ clubhouse, it provides the best possible answer as to why this mixed-and-matched bunch of journeymen and callups have been able to string together the best record in baseball at 42-25.

Not a surprising article, and quite frankly, I expected one sooner.

Whenever a team achieves something above what was expected, the media generally takes the easy way out and attributes the success to chemistry or some other intangible. It’s a simple justification for a complicated reality, and it basically amounts to saying, “We were wrong, but not actually wrong, we just couldn’t see the things that nobody else could have seen either!” But that’s lazy to me, and it’s almost completely devoid of responsibility.

For my part, I predicted the 2012 Dodgers to check in at 81-81, and I actually thought I was being optimistic due to the projection models of everyone else.

As for my mea culpa, I’ll simply say that I was wrong, but for quantifiable/real reasons.

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Quite simply, they are winning because they are good on paper, not because of mysterious forces. The team’s Pythagorean record is 40-27, they are 42-25. Their third-order wins record (factors in opponent quality/statistical normalization) is 39-28, good for second in the NL and fourth in the MLB. Their performance thus far shows that they’ve simply been legitimately good.

Now whether the talent level is legit is a different story. Nobody had the Dodgers as one of the most talented teams in the majors, which is still probably true. So what accounts for their success? Heart and grit and stuff, right? Not really.

They have shown to have more talent than projected, despite certain positions still remaining mediocre. While Clayton Kershaw has come back to Earth a bit, Matt Kemp not only didn’t regress but actually progressed (while healthy), and Andre Ethier is on pace for the best season of his career. Jerry Hairston Jr., Bobby Abreu, Elian Herrera, Chris Capuano, and Aaron Harang, despite impending regression, have all shown to have talent levels above their projections as well. Not to mention that the bullpen has been rock solid despite being almost entirely reliant on team controlled arms from the farm system.

That talent, however, hasn’t succeeded on its own, as the team currently own the second highest BABIP in the majors at .318. Furthermore, while their ERA is second at 3.13, their FIP is sixth at 3.65 and their xFIP is 11th at 3.86. On an individual level, Abreu has a .431 BABIP, Herrera has a .410 BABIP, and I’ve already pointed out that the rotation has overachievers as well.

So the Dodgers have been winning because they’ve been partially extremely good and partially extremely fortunate. It’s an excellent combination that has powered the team to the best record in baseball despite injuries and mediocre talent at multiple positions. Of course, there’s nothing wrong with being both lucky and good. The fact that they are treading water without the guy who carried the team for April is amazing, and in a fortunate bit of timing, if they can continue to tread water until Kemp comes back, the team shouldn’t actually regress as hard as they would normally be expected to.

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So while I do believe that Don Mattingly is a great clubhouse guy and I do think his work has factored into the team’s success, I also believe that winning creates chemistry, not the other way around. It’s not hard to love each other when you hold the best record in baseball.

It’s easy to just assign a magical season to outstanding team chemistry or due karma now that the team is without Frank McCourt or the gravitational pull of Todd Coffey‘s gut helping to align the planets, but there are quantifiable reasons for their success without having to resort to intangibles and superstition.

Hopefully people recognize that, because doing otherwise sells the quality of their achievements short.

As I feared when Mark Ellis‘ injury was initially announced, the six week timetable was optimistic, as now he’s out at least two months.

The estimated recovery time of Dodgers second baseman Mark Ellis has been extended to two months after an MRI revealed a medial collateral ligament sprain of the left knee.

Ellis already has had emergency surgery to relieve swelling in the left leg, which was injured last Friday in a takeout slide by Cardinals infielder Tyler Greene. Dodgers trainer Sue Falsone said surgery is not currently considered for the ligament sprain.

Falson said Ellis also has an accompanying blister capsule sprain and a bone contusion on the outside of the knee.

“He’s not full weight bearing right now. He’s on crutches. So it just depends on how many days it takes for him to get to that full weight bearing,” she said. “There are a lot of factors here, and it’s not like this is a common, everyday baseball injury that we see all the time. These are best estimates we can give based on tissue healing times. But every person is different so we are going to see how it goes.”

Falsone stressed that because all of Ellis’ injuries are trauma related — and he has a long wound from the surgery — healing time is uncertain.

“Right now we are letting everything heal up and let him recover from the trauma and begin some basic weight bearing exercises and range of motion type of stuff and progress,” she said, adding that the healing of the wound and the knee sprain “both need healing time.”

So Ellis is out until at least August, but by reading the quotes, you find that the training staff doesn’t really have a reliable timetable for this, so it could easily be later than that.

Honestly? I’m looking at it like I just hope he’s 100% for 2013, and anything the Dodgers get out of him in 2012 is a bonus at this point.

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Justin Sellers was placed on the disabled list yesterday to make room for Jerry Hairston Jr.‘s return, but he should be back in 15 days.

Dodgers infielder Justin Sellers was placed on the 15-day disabled list Friday with a bulging disk he believes is the result of the highlight-reel catch he made diving into the stands at Dodger Stadium earlier this month.

Sellers has been playing in increasing pain and the injury was diagnosed through an MRI Thursday. Manager Don Mattingly said the club is optimistic that anti-inflammatory medication and strengthening exercises will have Sellers able to return in the minimum 15 days.

It depends on his recovery, but he hasn’t shown to be Rafael Furcal yet, so there’s no reason to expect the worse.

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With quick status updates, Matt Guerrier is out until at least the All-Star break and Juan Uribe is having his wrist examined for what seems like the millionth time.

Sue Falsone: Matt Guerrier not expected back until after All-Star break.

— Dylan Hernandez (@dylanohernandez) May 26, 2012

Juan Uribe will get his wrist examined tonight by #DrNealElAttrache.

— Dylan Hernandez (@dylanohernandez) May 26, 2012

Guerrier is a loss, but as long as Hairston is healthy, I don’t care much if Uribe comes back sooner or later.

Best candidate ever.

Jerry Hairston Jr. is in the lineup today, meaning he has been activated off the disabled list. Unfortunately, the corresponding move is Justin Sellers heading to the disabled list with a bulging disk in his back.

Hairston is batting .315/.403/.463/.866 on the season, which isn’t even the best part, as he was one of the best defenders in the MLB for the month of April. Sellers underwent an MRI the other day due to numbness and weakness in his leg, so it’s safe to say the bulging disk was the cause of that.

That injury saves the roster spots of either Elian Herrera or Ivan De Jesus.

When Elian Herrera was recalled to the Dodgers more than a week ago, I’m sure almost no one, besides maybe Chris Jackson of the Albuquerque Examiner, knew who he was.

Now, after eight games, he’s making his mark on an injury-riddled team and he might not be the one taking the first flight back to Albuquerque when the rest of the infield gets healthy (starting potentially with Jerry Hairston, Jr. this weekend). He has a .346/.393/.462 line in those eight games, and while there’s absolutely no way he keeps that kind of production up, he’s off to a nice start in the majors.

If I had to guess, I’d say Tuesday night’s hero, Ivan De Jesus, would be the odd man out when Hairston returns Friday.

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When I watch Herrera play, I see his vast versatility and I think of old friend Jolbert Cabrera.

Cabrera was the Dodgers utility player extraordinaire during the 2003 season. He posted a .282/.332/.438 line with six home runs, 37 RBI, 32 doubles, and 43 runs scored in 380 plate appearances. Not great, but certainly really good for a utility guy, as Cabrera was a key bench piece for those Dodger teams.

To me, there’s a lot of Cabrera in Herrera (sorry for the pun).

In fact, Herrera has even better on-base and base-stealing ability (based on minor league numbers) than Cabrera, so his impact potential seems greater — if he can keep it up.

Both Cabrera and Herrera possess the defensive flexibility that teams covet in utility men. Cabrera played every position except pitcher and catcher in his one season with the Dodgers, while Herrera has already played second base, third base, and center field for the team. In the minors, he’s played every position except catcher, so he has those same versatile qualities. And yes, he has even appeared in one game as a pitcher.

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Now, it could be a case of the league not knowing a lick about Herrera yet, thus he’s producing (albeit in a small sample size) only for now. But the point is that Herrera, 27, could be someone to keep an eye on, not somebody to flippantly dismiss, which is the outlook most seem to have.

We don’t know what the future holds for him, but he has already gone from unknown lifetime minor leaguer to surprisingly effective bench player for the MLB’s best team, so counting him out has usually been a bad bet.

The Dodgers have signed free-agent infielder Aaron Miles and asked for unconditional release waivers on right-handed reliever Mike MacDougal, who was designated for assignment last Thursday when Ronald Belisario was activated.

How does a player like Miles price himself out of the free agent market? How delusional was he, exactly?

“Oh ho ho! Albert Pujols got paid $240 million this off-season, and his WAR was only six times higher than mine, so it’s $40 million or bust for me in 2012!”

Fail.

Then there’s the Mike MacDougal news, which you may be celebrating about, until you realize that Todd Coffey has somehow managed to be worse.

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In “oh well” injury news, Juan Rivera is going to be out for a while.

Dodgers outfielder Juan Rivera has a ruptured left hamstring tendon and could be out as long as two months, trainer Sue Falsone said on Friday.

Rivera — who had been hobbled by hamstring problems for weeks but felt a pop sliding into third base on Tuesday night and was placed on the disabled list on Wednesday — has a rupture where the tendon inserts into the knee. Falsone said it is an unusual baseball injury and there’s a medical debate whether surgery is appropriate.

“We will re-evaluate after two weeks and see where we’re at,” Falsone said. “[Rivera] did some exercises today and was pain-free. The best case is that he’s ready to return in 15 days, but I don’t think that’s what we’re looking at. The worst case is six to eight weeks. He will play this season, for sure.”

In “aw shit” injury news, Jerry Hairston Jr. won’t be back for a while.

The Dodgers placed infielder Jerry Hairston on the 15-day disabled list on Friday with a strained left hamstring and recalled infielder Justin Sellers from Triple-A Albuquerque.

“It would be a foolish thing to go out there and blow it out and miss two months,” said Hairston. “I blew out the right one and was out three or four weeks. This won’t take that long.

Can you imagine a bench of Aaron Miles, Justin Sellers, Adam Kennedy, and Matt Treanor?

I mean … seriously?

On a first place team.

Seriously.