C.J. Nitkowski, for reasons unknown, decided to inject himself into the Zack Greinke/Carlos Quentin/Dodgers/Padres brawl discussion, basically saying that Quentin doesn’t hang over the plate any more than Matt Kemp does.

Carlos Quentin stands on top of the plate, hangs over the strike zone? You sure about that? twitter.com/CJNitkowski/st…

— CJ Nitkowski (@CJNitkowski) April 12, 2013

Kemp, same camera, same angle. twitter.com/CJNitkowski/st…

— CJ Nitkowski (@CJNitkowski) April 12, 2013

Damning screencaps, right? Yeah, a lot of people seemed to think so, hence this response, because they both conveniently only show their setups and don’t show why pitchers complain about Quentin diving over the plate and why he gets hit so much.

I find it interesting that he clearly appears to be misleading his followers here, because it’s obvious that the point of contention is how they end up after footstrike, not how they setup. I mean, who cares how a guy sets up if he’s on top of the plate when the ball is about to cross it.

Anyway, so what’s up with the differing reputations of Quentin and Kemp if we’re to believe what the screencaps show, right?

Ah right, it’s because Kemp actually tends to pull out and away from the plate after his setup, while Quentin … well … he dives in after his setup, sort of like everybody has been saying.

That’s both of them at footstrike, where it actually matters in terms of getting out of the way of being hit.

It sort of sucks that both are wearing dark undershirts, because it’s hard to tell exactly where their elbows are (Quentin’s is basically over the inside corner), but it’s still clear to see why Quentin would get hit more than Kemp.

Besides the fact that it’s harder to rotate out of the way when you dive towards the plate, thus making it harder to avoid being HBP (it’s why he can’t simply move like NotGraphs wants), Kemp has a ton more room for a pitcher to miss inside before even coming close to hitting him. With Quentin, if you miss anywhere in and above the belt, he’s at risk to take it off his forearm. You know, sort of like he did twice in this series. And 100+ other times over his career.

To be frank, I feel stupid for even having to write this post, since a player doesn’t have one of the highest HBP rates ever for no reason, but people seem to actually be buying into this garbage, and Jayson Stark actually retweeted it as “interesting”, so it deserved an explanation.

The tide has shifted completely in the Zack Greinke sweepstakes with sources now almost universally agreeing that the Rangers are the favorites.

Ken Rosenthal and Jon Paul Morosi speculate that their push for Justin Upton is born out of confidence regarding Greinke.

The Rangers’ fervent push for Upton, according to one rival executive, is an indication of their confidence in landing Greinke, who also is being pursued by the Los Angeles Dodgers.

Later, on Twitter, Rosenthal said that the Dodgers are considering pulling out of Greinke negotiations all together.

Mark Saxon got quotes from Ned Colletti expressing pessimism.

Asked if he was on the “doorstep” of acquiring Greinke, Dodgers general manager Ned Colletti said: “We’re not on the front lawn. … We’re barely out of the car at the curb. It’s better than driving around the neighborhood looking for the house. We know where the house is located. We just can’t seem to get out of the car.”

The Dodgers began negotiations with Greinke’s agent, Casey Close, in Nashville, but it doesn’t appear that they have made a formal offer to this point. Speculation is that Greinke could command a record deal for a right-hander — in the six-year, $150 million range.

Given the Dodgers’ deep pockets, it’s unlikely they would be outbid for Greinke, so it’s possible he prefers to pitch in another city. Reports indicated he was leaning toward the Texas Rangers.

Jon Heyman relays much of the same sentiment.

Dodgers people have begun to sound a bit less optimistic within the last day or so about their pursuit of star free-agent pitcher Zack Greinke. And although there’s no evidence anything is close or decided in Texas’ favor, a couple of Dodgers people even suggested that they are beginning to wonder whether Greinke may simply prefer the Rangers.

Just piling on at this point, Jim Bowden says Greinke is impressed with the Rangers organization.

A source has told me that Greinke was blown away by Nolan Ryan and Rangers Front Office..loves the ML team, prospects and chances to Win WS

So yeah, it’s safe to say that the momentum has shifted from the Dodgers to the Rangers for whatever reason, but whether this remains legit or is being fed to the press in order to drive up prices, or whatever else, is still unknown.

Like many of you, I’m just getting tired of the saga already because it holds up all of free agency, but then again, nobody said the rest have to wait for Greinke. He’s free to do things at his own pace if he so chooses, especially considering that he’s looking at committing the next 6 to 8 years of his life to a location.

—–

The suitors for Dee Gordon now total four, with the Braves and the Phillies now apparently in as well, according to Jayson Stark.

#Indians, #Mariners, #Braves & #Phillies among teams I heard asked #Dodgers about Dee Gordon. It appears all but Seat would try him in OF.

Not seeing what the return would be from those teams, so there must be other things at work in the background here if this trade were to happen.

Honestly though, I’m not seeing the upside in moving him to the outfield. The potential for him to be an MLB regular contributor came with the value of him playing shortstop, where his bat could be decidedly below average but he could still have value. In center or, even worse, left or right, he would basically be relegated to the upside of a poor man’s Juan Pierre. Say what you want about Pierre, but Gordon’s talent with the bat isn’t anywhere close to Pierre’s right now, and I’m not sure it’ll ever get there.

—–

Confirming a previous rumor, it was reiterated that the Dodgers have interest in Skip Schumaker.

The Dodgers and Twins are among the teams that have some level of interest in Cardinals bench player Skip Schumaker, Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reports.

I gave my thoughts on him the first time his name came up.

Credit: The LFP

The Zack Greinke saga is the story of the Winter Meetings, not only because he’s the top free agent out there, but also because he’s holding up the deals of other free agents, as they’re all waiting on him.

Whatever he decides, it figures to be at least borderline historical, as Jon Heyman notes.

Strong belief by people close to situation is greinke can beat cc sabathia $161M record deal if desires. #dodgers #rangers

But who’s in the lead now? Jayson Stark says the talk revolves around the Rangers…

The big buzz this morning at the winter meetings is: Watch out for Texas on Zack Greinke.

…and Joel Sherman gives a potential reason why Greinke might be leaning that way.

Told Greinke’s wife is former Dall #Cowboys cheerleader and could influence desire get back to Tex. score1 for #Rangers

The Nationals are out of the sweepstakes thanks to their Dan Haren acquisition, and the Angels are assumed to be out of it as well due to price concerns, according to Danny Knobler.

With Greinke bidding heading to $160 million and perhaps beyond, one Angels person said: “That’s going to blow us out of the water.”

Additionally, they just added Joe Blanton to their rotation.

Ken Gurnick reports that Greinke’s personal fingerprints appear to be all over the negotiations.

The speculation is that Greinke, and not Close, is orchestrating the leisurely pace of negotiations, which has log-jammed the free-agent market for pitchers. The 29-year-old Greinke could wind up with a contract bigger than CC Sabathia’s record for a pitcher of seven years and $161 million.

Reading between the lines a little, this could mean that the money is close enough where it boils down to personal matters, which could lead him to stray away from the Dodgers and the most money. It could also be the reason Josh Hamilton to the Mariners talks have picked up, as his agent might sense the Rangers will be out of the market for him.

Hopefully not, but the reports yesterday certainly weren’t as optimistic for the team as the day before.

—–

Those Dee Gordon rumors from yesterday? Well apparently they have some legs, and Jon Paul Morosi/Ken Rosenthal report that the Indians are in.

I looked at the Mariners roster yesterday to find a potential fit in a trade, but for the Indians I don’t see a clear-cut fit for the Dodgers current roster. I’m hoping it doesn’t involve Ubaldo Jimenez.

—–

As for Hyun Jin Ryu, yesterday was just a continuation of the day before.

Nor would Colletti say if he felt he was closer to a deal for Korean free-agent pitcher Ryu Hyun-jin.

“I just feel closer to Sunday,” Colletti said, because at 2 p.m. PT Sunday the Dodgers must either have a deal with Ryu or he returns to Korea.

Oddly enough, I think Jim Bowden‘s thoughts most accurately reflects reality.

Dodgers not worried about negotiations w Ryu… they know Boras style & will wait until Sunday Deadline to bear down with him & get it done

— JIM BOWDEN (@JimBowdenESPNxm) December 6, 2012

Though I would be lying if I said I didn’t cringe when Scott Boras started comparing him and his impending contract to Daisuke Matsuzaka.

“We have standards that all of us agree the guy is a No. 3 starter in the Major Leagues,” Boras said Wednesday. “And past practices, negotiations that we’ve done for [Daisuke] Matsuzaka, at that time Matsuzaka got paid [$52 million, six years] like he was a No. 3 pitcher in the big leagues. We think very highly of Ryu.

Why?

1) Expecting that contract is ridiculous to me.

2) Why would he ever want to associate an Asian pitcher’s potential career with that of Daisuke Matsuzaka?

—–

The Dodgers do need a lefty reliever in the pen for next year, and with Randy Choate now off the board, Mike Petriello brings up Matt Thornton‘s name.

With LH RP dropping off the board, #Dodgers will probably need to get one via trade. One rumored possibility: Matt Thornton of Chicago.

Would have loved this idea three or four years ago, but he’s now on a three-year negative trend, is going to be 36, and his stuff diminishing is becoming an annual event.

Still a better option than signing Choate for three years, but not exactly a guy you want to give up meaningful assets to acquire.

The trade deadline is now less than 48 hours away and the Dodgers are still looking for another bat and an upgrade to their rotation.

An additional bat should be the priority, but the Dodgers seem intent on securing an arm instead.

Either way, what are the rumors today?

—–

Remember that Ryan Dempster thing? Well, it’s still going on.

The Cubs and Dodgers are still discussing righty Ryan Dempster, tweets Yahoo’s Tim Brown. Left fielder Alfonso Soriano remains part of these trade talks, tweets Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports. The Dodgers are said to be Dempster’s first choice, and he controls the process with 10-and-5 rights.

I think a package deal of Dempster and Alfonso Soriano is the most likely move the Dodgers make before the deadline.

—–

Jayson Stark of ESPN has the Dodgers in active pursuit of Josh Johnson.

Clubs identify the Dodgers, Orioles and Blue Jays as other aggressive suitors for Johnson while the White Sox, Red Sox, Braves, and Royals have checked in.

Still don’t think they could form an appealing package for him even if they wanted to.

—–

Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times says the team is chasing James Shields as well.

The Braves, Dodgers, Indians and Rangers are the teams most interested in Shields, who, along with Miami’s Josh Johnson, are two of the most prominent starters being talked about in advance of Tuesday’s deadline for nonwaiver deals.

Not entirely sure how much of an upgrade he actually is at this point.

—–

Jim Salisbury of CSN Philly puts the Dodgers on Shane Victorino.

Multiple baseball sources indicated on Saturday that the Phils’ talks involving Victorino were getting warm. The Reds, Pirates, Dodgers and Giants all have interest in Victorino, and scouts from those clubs have peeked in on the Phillies lately. The Dodgers have two scouts eye-balling the Phillies in Atlanta, and the Reds also have a scout in town for the Phils-Braves series. The Reds also like outfielder Juan Pierre.

Please no.

Moving on to actual potential upgrades, Tim Brown of Yahoo! Sports says the Dodgers would like to get Shin Soo Choo, but Buster Olney of ESPN plays Johnny Raincloud and says it would take a ton for the Indians to move him.

Count the Dodgers among teams interested in Choo.

— Tim Brown (@TBrownYahoo) July 30, 2012

Indians think it’s unlikely they’ll move Shin-Soo Choo. They’d need the perfect offer to make it happen.

— Buster Olney (@Buster_ESPN) July 30, 2012

Jon Heyman of CBS Sports says the Dodgers have interest in Justin Morneau.

At least the Dodgers, Blue Jays and Giants appear to have some interest in Twins first baseman Justin Morneau, who is making a nice comeback this year.

Despite all the rumors, it doesn’t appear as if anything is imminent. The Dempster/Soriano deal is closest to being done, but most of the other rumors have the Dodgers just interested for now.

With that said, I doubt the Dodgers are done for 2012 in the trade market, so I anticipate things escalating quickly.

GM Ned Colletti says the Dodgers are far from done after landing Hanley Ramirez, as they still want a starter and a bat.

The Dodgers landed the middle-of-the-order bat they’ve been looking for in Hanley Ramirez, but general manager Ned Colletti on Wednesday said he’s still looking for a starting pitcher and another hitter.

“We’re still hunting for starting pitching. We won’t let this deal stand in the way of that,” said the general manager, who dealt starting pitcher Nathan Eovaldi and Minor League pitcher Scott McGough to the Marlins for Ramirez and left-handed reliever Randy Choate.

Completely makes sense, but who? Hence the mess of rumors to follow.

—–

Ryan Dempster Dumpster Fire Of Rumors

Yesterday, it was widely reported that the Dodgers were the front-runners for Ryan Dempster and that the team was confident they could land him.

A trade between the Dodgers and Cubs still seems “realistic,” Jon Paul Morosi of FOX Sports tweets.

The Dodgers have the upper hand in talks with the Cubs, Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com tweets.

The Dodgers are feeling increasingly confident that they can work out a deal for Dempster, ESPN.com’s Buster Olney tweets. The Cubs don’t have many alternatives given Dempster’s interest in playing for L.A. and his no-trade protection.

Today, it has been more of the same.

The Dodgers and Cubs continue talking and “might” be getting closer to a deal involving Dempster, Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports tweets.

Rival executives say the Dodgers are projecting an air of optimism about their chances of obtaining Dempster, ESPN.com’s Jayson Stark reports (on Twitter).

There seems to be a consensus on his destination, which makes sense since he’s all but said it’s the only place he’ll go at this point.

I had no problem with acquiring Dempster, because I figured he would be the upgrade that would come the cheapest for the team. That is, until I saw this tweeted:

Source: #Cubs have asked #Dodgers for Allen Webster as primary piece in Ryan Dempster talks.

— Jon Morosi (@jonmorosi) July 25, 2012

Uh … yeah … no thanks.

I thought the price was supposed to go down as they lose leverage, not up.

Allen Webster is a more advanced version of Garrett Gould with better velocity.

—–

Danny Knobler of CBS Sports reports that the availability of James Shields has drawn interest.

The Angels aren’t the only team in pursuit of James Shields. The Rangers and Dodgers have also made the Rays trade offers for the right-hander, Danny Knobler of CBSSports.com reports.

Jon Paul Morosi of Fox Sports says the Dodgers have alternatives to Dempster in … uh … vastly superior pitchers.

The Dodgers have Zack Greinke and Josh Johnson on their list in case they don’t trade for Dempster, Jon Paul Morosi of FOX Sports tweets.

Odd but okay.

Jayson Stark of ESPN reports that the Dodgers are in on basically every starting pitcher on the market.

The Dodgers are in on a number of starting pitchers, including Nolasco, Blanton, Kevin Millwood, and Jason Vargas in addition to Ryan Dempster and Matt Garza. They’ve also checked in on outfield and first base help, including Victorino and Justin Morneau.

The team is also looking at outfield and first base, which wouldn’t surprise Ken Rosenthal.

Source: #Dodgers deal for Victorino or Pence possible even if team gets Dempster along with H. Ramirez. LA has been in talks with #Phillies.

— Ken Rosenthal (@Ken_Rosenthal) July 25, 2012

—–

In terms of pitching, I’m sort of at the point now where if the Dodgers don’t swing a trade for an elite arm, I’d rather they just do nothing. If Dempster is seriously going to command at least a top five prospect in the system, why bother? With Ted Lilly on his way back, the team has five starters, and John Ely, Stephen Fife, and Webster wait in the minors.

As far as the bats go, I’ve already explained why I’d rather the team not acquire Shane Victorino, and Justin Morneau‘s 0.0 WAR line of .253/.314/.437/.751 doesn’t impress me. The only name that’s intriguing is Hunter Pence. His .267/.334/.447/.781 line isn’t impressive, but he’s a ~3 WAR player that would represent a meaningful upgrade.

In what I’m sure was sheer coincidence, it was revealed that Coffey had been dealing with knee trouble.

After the game Don Mattingly said Todd Coffey has been getting treatment on his knee

— Eric Stephen (@truebluela) April 14, 2012

Truly amazing that it didn’t seem to affect his full bore sprint from the pen.

Todd Coffey to the 15-day DL (right knee inflammation) to make room for Ted Lilly

— Eric Stephen (@truebluela) April 14, 2012

Basically, this move was made because they wanted to keep both Josh Lindblom and Jamey Wright. Still though, it’s amazing to me that they’d rather put Coffey on the DL than designate Wright, especially considering Lindblom is basically their seventh inning guy at this juncture.

—–

Besides laughing at people going insane over his blown save, Kenley Jansen‘s velocity was a hot topic.

Eric Stephen of True Blue LA got a quote from Don Mattingly saying that the problem may be mechanical again, but he’s not overly concerned.

Jansen’s velocity was also down, throwing between 89-91 MPH, hitting 92 on two pitches. But Mattingly didn’t sound worried.

“Kenley’s different. There have been times early on where he gets tentative or gets off kilter, and the ball doesn’t come out the same way. We’ll continue to pay attention to his mechanics. The ninth is different than the eighth, so we’ll pay attention to that too,” Mattingly said. “As long as Kenley is not hurt, then we’re not concerned.”

Tony Jackson of ESPN Los Angeles got a quote from Jansen revealing that he’s been under the weather a bit, and he also talked to Rick Honeycutt, who echoed Mattingly’s lack of concern.

Jansen has been battling a mild case of flu in recent days, which could have accounted for the velocity drop.

“I’ve been battling the flu, but that’s not an excuse at all,” Jansen said. “You still have to make good pitches and keep us in the game and try to help the team win. That is what it’s all about.”

Both manager Don Mattingly and pitching coach Rick Honeycutt noticed the slight dropoff, but neither seemed alarmed by it. Honeycutt said it might have been due to the cold weather or illness.

Actually, sickness could explain it, though seeing is believing.

—–

Jayson Stark of ESPN has a piece on the new ownership group of the Los Angeles Dodgers, and it warns that those expecting them to spend big may be sorely disappointed, primarily because that’s not Stan Kasten‘s style.

So do people within the industry see this man suddenly turning into a spend-a-holic who starts firing nine- and 10-year deals at whoever wants to take them? Heck, no.

“That’s not Stan Kasten’s M.O,” said one veteran agent. “I’m sure they’ll be a franchise that makes moves. But I’m also sure that when Stan makes decisions, it won’t be like the kind of decisions Mike Illitch makes.”

“When it looks like a sure thing, it ain’t,” said another prominent agent. “Look at the Nationals. Ted Lerner has more money than God, and look how long it took him to start handing out big contracts. And did he hand them out while Stan was there? No. It happened after he left. So I know everyone anticipates him spending wildly now. But I’m not so sure.”

So what can we learn from that history? Nobody in baseball has a better feel for that than Kasten’s longtime general manager in Atlanta, John Schuerholz.

“It’s fair to say this group is out to re-establish the great Dodger brand,” Schuerholz told Rumblings. “But how that translates into making decisions to spend big money on big-name free agents, I don’t think that’s automatic.”

Now would Schuerholz be surprised to see the Kasten/Magic Dodgers chasing the most ballyhooed free agents in the game? No, he “wouldn’t be surprised to see them do that,” he said.

“But I don’t think they’ll do it every day,” Schuerholz said. “I don’t think they’ll do it all the time. What I’m sure they’ll do is what Stan has always tried to do — build a rock-solid organization and build it largely around homegrown talent. And at the same time, I’m sure he won’t shy away from the right free agent. But I underline the word, ‘right.’”

“I don’t think Stan rolls the dice at anything,” Schuerholz said. “I don’t think he’s ever rolled the dice. Stan analyzes. He relies on his experience and his instincts … and he makes an analytical decision about what’s the right thing to do for the franchise.”

Analyzing?

This … this … this sounds wonderful.

MSTI: Mike Petriello asks how good Matt Kemp‘s contract looks in light of other long term deals. Pretty awesome, I’d say.

Grantland: Bill James goes through the best pitcher duels of 2011 and the Dodgers land on the list 10 times.

3. July 20, 2011, Dodgers at San Francisco, Clayton Kershaw against Tim Lincecum

5. September 9, 2011, Dodgers in San Francisco again, Kershaw and Lincecum rematch

23. June 26, Angels at Dodger Stadium, Jered Weaver against Clayton Kershaw

31. August 2, Dodgers in San Diego, Mat Latos against Hiroki Kuroda

32. March 31 (season opener), San Francisco in Los Angeles, Lincecum against Kershaw

35. June 8, Dodgers in Philadelphia, Hiroki Kuroda against Cole Hamels

36. July 9, Dodgers in San Diego, Rubby de la Rosa against Aaron Harang

42. June 19, Houston in L.A., Bud Norris against Hiroki Kuroda

60. September 14, Arizona in L.A., Daniel Hudson against Clayton Kershaw

82. July 8, San Diego in Los Angeles, Mat Latos against Chad Billingsley

No surprise to see Clayton Kershaw there five times. Hiroki Kuroda being there three times goes to show how effective he was and how the team gave him no support. Interesting cameos by both Rubby De La Rosa and Chad Billingsley in games that I didn’t remember.

Minor League Ball: John Sickels has the Dodgers farm system ranked in the bottom third.

22) Los Angeles Dodgers: Some intriguing pitching depth, much of it fairly close to the majors, but not much hitting.

Not sure if I agree or not yet, but my instinct is to concur.

—–

ESPN: Jayson Stark relays the thoughts of one executive who thinks the Dodgers are going to be huge spenders next off-season.

As Buster Olney has mentioned recently, if Hamels does reach free agency, the Dodgers will be perfectly positioned to make it worth his while. It’s amazing, in fact, how much other teams fear the Dodgers’ potential spending power once their new owner is in place. Remember, L.A. has only TWO players on the roster signed beyond 2013 — Matt Kemp and Chad Billingsley.

“Next year this time,” said an exec of one team, “the Dodgers will be THE team calling up every marquee free agent. They’re going to have serious money. They’ll be the Yankees West. They can just look at that free-agent list and cherry-pick whoever they want. And why would anyone not want to go there? They’ll be the sleeping giant in free agency next year.”

Makes sense.

ESPN: Andre Ethier doesn’t understand why the Dodgers can’t be signing Prince Fielder.

The ownership limbo seemingly affected the Dodgers’ ability to deal in free agency this offseason, with general manager Ned Colletti saying earlier this month the team was essentially done with its offseason acquisitions because “we’re at our payroll.” So when news broke Tuesday of the Detroit Tigers nearing a deal with marquee free agent Prince Fielder, it wasn’t lost on Ethier.

“Why can’t the Dodgers be doing that? Look at the markets those two teams are, and the stability you see through the front office and the team being able to operate … on the level it should be,” he said, adding, “you don’t try to think of it too much as a player, but obviously if you’re not going after the big fish like other teams are, like our partners are down there to the south of us, the Angels [who acquired Albert Pujols], it’s tough to go out there and keep competing year after year if you’re not going out there and making your team better every year. “I think that’s the situation we’ve been in. Obviously it’s going to get better from here on out because of the sell and getting new people in there.”

Oops.

—–

Dodgers Now: Patrick Soon Shiong, the richest man in Los Angeles, will not bid on the Dodgers, but may join a bid.

The richest man in Los Angeles has not bid for the Dodgers.

However, Dr. Patrick Soon-Shiong could join the Dodgers sweepstakes soon — not by bidding on his own, but by joining one of the groups already in the running to buy the team. Soon-Shiong has met with several prospective bidders, and he had dinner recently with outgoing Dodgers owner Frank McCourt.

If he links up with the Magic Johnson group, this could get good.

CBS Sports: Jon Heyman said on Twitter that Steven Cohen is the biggest threat to win the Dodgers. Ugh.

I recapped all the Dodgers bidders here, so go find out why I don’t want him.