Heading into 2012, the Los Angeles Dodgers will have a new face manning the shortstop position. With Rafael Furcal traded away in 2011 and Jamey Carroll off to the Minnesota Twins, Dee Gordon will take the reins and look to utilize his speed, range, and strong arm.

One of the team’s top prospects heading into 2011, Gordon got a chance to play after Furcal was injured, and his speed was on display from the get go, as he swiped 24 bases in 31 attempts, good for a 77.5% success rate. Unfortunately for Gordon, he missed time with a shoulder injury, and his slight frame will probably always leave him vulnerable to injury on some level.

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What is more concerning when examining Gordon is his minuscule walk rate of just 3% and a poor UZR/150. To be a successful leadoff man, Gordon will have to draw more free passes or become the reincarnation of Ichiro circa the early 2000s. Flash will never be a power hitter, but the club doesn’t need him to be. Just getting on-base at an solid clip and being an efficient baserunner will serve the team well as he sets the table for Matt Kemp and Andre Ethier. In the field, Gordon will have to improve on his -21.5 UZR/150, though that total is obviously subject to small sample size bias, as he played in just under 450 innings in 2011.

Working in Gordon’s favor is that he doesn’t go down on strikes often, never whiffing in more than 15% of his plate appearances since turning pro (with a 2011 MLB mark of 11.6%). A .304/.325/.362 line with a .314 wOBA simply won’t cut it though, and Dee will need to reach base more often and pound out doubles and triples in order to be a plus with the bat. Any of his minor league lines in 2008, 2009, or 2011 (.331/.371/.430, .301/.362/.394, .333/.373/.410) would serve Gordon, the Dodgers, The Bison, and the pitching staff well.

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Don Mattingly has already proclaimed Dee the leadoff guy, and while a more patient hitter like A.J. Ellis is probably better suited to leadoff, Dee has the makeup of a traditional top-of-the-order guy with his speed and bunting ability.

He won’t soon get moved down in the order, but Dee can certainly do himself a favor by being more selective at the dish and drawing a free pass every now and then.

Jack Wilson: His OPS is on a four year decline, checking in with a .559 OPS in 2011. For that matter, both his AVG and OBP are on a four year decline as well, and his SLG is on a two year tumble. Needless to say, he isn’t a light hitter in the same way Jamey Carroll (solid but no power) is. No, Jack Wilson is just a terrible hitter.

His redeeming quality is supposed to be his defense, but even that has fallen off. It has gone from 27 runs in 2009 to 8 runs in 2010 to 6 runs in 2011, according to DRS. His UZR mimics that fall, showing 15.1 runs, -0.5 runs, and 1.4 runs, with FRAA painting the same picture at 2.8, 4.4, and 0.5. Even within those numbers, most of his positive defensive value is now at second base, not shortstop.

Either way, there’s not enough defense anymore to make up for his cringe worthy bat. I’m not sure what the point would be of even making him a utility guy, given that he might not be better than replacement level.

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Jerry Hairston: Probably not going to impress anybody with OPS numbers of .710, .652, and .727 over the last three seasons, but he does at least have about a league average walk rate, so there’s hope for usefulness.

His value though is in his versatility, posting average defense at 2B/3B/SS/CF while being above average in LF. You could do a ton worse than him as a utility guy and I think he’s actually an ideal piece to a well rounded bench.

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Hiroki Kuroda: Everybody knows that he has been well worth the money and that’s he’s a solid #2/#3 type of pitcher, so I’m not even going to waste my breath on that.

However, despite what is commonly bandied about, his status with the Dodgers is no longer just about his willingness to play another season in America. With Ned Colletti claiming that the 2012 payroll will be lower than the 2011 number, there simply might not be enough budget for Hiroki Kuroda to come back unless he takes a pay cut from what was already a hometown discount.

I’m not sure he’s willing to do that, and I certainly don’t blame him, as he’s coming off arguably his best year in 2011 and the Dodgers will need him to take a significant reduction in salary to get a deal done. I guess we’re about to see how much he loves Los Angeles.

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Aaron Harang: The 3.64 ERA and 4.17 FIP in 2011 with the Padres is generally misleading because of the park he was pitching in, as even his comeback year was decidedly mediocre with an ERA- of 105 and an FIP- of 119. I suppose it would be worth taking a flier on him as a fifth starter, but I wouldn’t just assume he’s back and ready to be a sub-4.00 ERA innings eater.

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Chris Capuano: His 4.55 2011 ERA isn’t pretty, but his 21.0 K% and 6.6 BB% show he has underlying skills. Not surprisingly, he has posted four consecutive seasons of xFIP- better than league average and hovers around average in FIP-. Furthermore, both his SIERA and tERA are on two year declines, perhaps showing that the contact he’s inducing is of better quality as well.

As a fly ball pitcher (~40%), he should find Dodger Stadium to his welcoming, and if the Dodgers can get a reasonable price for him, he’s certainly worth pursuing.

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Jeff Francis: Despite poor ERA numbers, he has always had a solid skill set that was masked by his pitching environment at Coors Field. Assuming he’s healthy again, he could be a potential bargain for somebody.

While his 4.82 ERA last year was ugly, he had a 4.10 FIP and 4.29 xFIP, so there’s about a league average pitcher in there already. Better yet, there’s upside here in the sense that if he can find his strikeout ways again (~15% to ~11%), there’s considerable promise for a middle of the rotation type pitcher for back of the rotation money.

Dee Gordon

Dee Gordon’s season was much like the picture you see above: up and down, up and down. Beginning the year in AAA and just an injury or two away from the show, the inevitable happened and Gordon made his way to the bigs. Coming in with a reputation as a contact hitter with speed to burn and a questionable glove, Gordon lived up admirably to that rep.

After slashing .333/.373/.410 with a .366 wOBA in AAA Albuquerque, Flash hit .304/.325/.362 with a .314 wOBA in 233 plate appearances with the big boys. He walked in just 3% of his plate appearances, but on the bright side only struck out 11.6% of the time, allowing himself the opportunity to beat out ground balls (which he hit 55.9% of the time) for hits with that blazing speed of his.

Gordon was successful on 24 of his 31 stolen base attempts, and considering he’s never going to hit for power (2011 MLB ISO of just .058, and a professional best of .100 in rookie ball back in 2008) Dee will have to improve upon that 77.4% success rate on the basepaths to make his incredible speed a positive. The ability to steal bases is one thing; being able to steal them at an efficient rate is something else entirely.

In the field, Gordon was capable of the spectacular play, but also the simple mistakes that often plague shortstops with great arms. Dee started 54 games at short, and to put it mildly, was bad with the glove. His UZR/150 was an astonishingly terrible -21.5, and that – combined with the lack of plate discipline and power – led to a WAR of just 0.6.

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Gordon’s season can be nicely divided in two with the All-Star break serving as the divider. Pre-break, Gordon hit just .232/.250/.280/.530, but post-break he showed that adjustments were made, as he hit .345/.367/.408/.776. The late surge included by far his best month as a pro, a white-hot September that saw Dee mash at a .372/.398/.451/.850 rate. September also saw improvements in his pitch recognition, plate discipline (9:5 K:BB after starting with an abysmal 18:2 mark), and his ability to drive the ball, as he smacked 8 extra-base hits after beginning the month with just 3.

All in all, it was a solid rookie campaign for Gordon. He did battle multiple shoulder injuries that curtailed the ample playing time he was given, but we saw the tools – the speed, the great arm, and the energy that mainstream pundits will talk so much about.

If Gordon can steal bases at a higher rate of success and get himself on base more often by drawing walks at a loftier clip, all the while improving his glove, he could be a huge positive factor going forward from atop the Dodger lineup. Barring anything unforeseen, 2012 will see Gordon manning short and hitting leadoff, and if nothing else, we know it will always be entertaining when Devaris Strange-Gordon is up to bat or has a play to make in the field.

Jamey Carroll

Carroll has already been covered in previous incarnations of the Season Review, but to quickly review, here are his numbers at short in the time he filled in for his injured comrades.

.304/.366/.357/.723 in 66 games, a 27/21 K/BB mark, and a -6.2 UZR/150 in the field in over 500 innings.

Rafael Furcal

When healthy, Rafael Furcal is a dynamic player, possessing a good eye at the plate, speed, the ability to successfully steal bags, a bit of pop, and a gun for an arm in the field. Unfortunately, in his time in Los Angeles, he was rarely healthy for an extended period of time, battling an array of maladies.

Furcal averaged just about 103 games a season in his six years in L.A., and even his unfortunate attraction to injury was a tad bit overblown. He actually played in 138 games or more 3 times, and he didn’t injure himself in idiotic ways (hello, Jason Repko). However, it is undeniable that his true impact was not felt over the last couple of years, and that proved true in 2011 as he only played in 37 games before a trade that shipped him to St. Louis in exchange for minor league outfielder Alex Castellanos.

Furcal leaves Los Angeles with a line of .283/.351/.406/.757 in just over 2800 plate appearances in blue. So long, Raffy.

The Three Stooges

Justin Sellers, Juan Uribe, and Aaron Miles combined to start 20 games at short, with Sellers flashing an impressive glove – a 28.2 UZR/150 – in 151.2 innings at the position.

Jamey Carroll

On the back-end of a two-year deal, Jamey Carroll put up another solid season as a super-utility man, and all at the baseball old age of 37. Though his numbers dipped across the board from what was the second best season of his career, he still contributed 2.2 WAR while primarily playing second.

In 146 games and 510 plate appearances, Carroll put up a .290/.359/.347 line with a .321 wOBA and 104 wRC+ while walking in 10% of his trips to the plate, as compared with just over 11% of his appearances ending in a strikeout.

Again, his 2010 numbers were better (.291/.379/.339, .329 wOBA, 12.3 BB%, 2.5 WAR) with the notable exception that Jamey cut down on his whiffs this past season and played worse defense (11.4 UZR/150 at second in 2010, down considerably in 2011 at -8.0 in 330 more innings). However, for a guy who played so much due to injury and ineptitude, he was yet again one of the bright spots in an otherwise dismal year.

Carroll was not traded so as to mentor Dee Gordon, and it would make sense to bring the veteran back on a one-year deal to play rover and continue his mentoring duties. Not that I particularly buy that a mentor is necessary for a young player, but if it means less playing time for Juan Uribe, I’m all for it. After all, a good way to improve the team is to stop playing players like Uribe. Carroll’s OBP in 81 games at second was .355; I sincerely doubt Ewribe could pull off that feat.

Aaron Miles

I don’t feel it’s necessary to re-hash too much of my previous spiel on Miles that can be found in my Third Base Season Review post, so I’ll just give his numbers as a second baseman in 2011, a position which he occupied for 72 games.

.288/.302/.362/.664 and a UZR/150 of 0.2 in over 500 innings.

Sigh? Sigh.

Also-Rans

Five other Dodgers saw time at second base, led by Uribe and Justin Sellers. Ivan DeJesus was given just a brief tryout, and with his exclusion from the September call-ups in 2011, his time as a viable option with the Dodgers is probably over. Which is a shame, because the man has shown a great ability to draw a walk during the vast majority of his minor league career, at least prior to his injury.

I could live with Sellers as a one-year fill-in, but the career minor leaguer is nothing more than that: filler. On the bright side, Sellers did display good leather, particularly at short and third, and was a plus at all three positions on the defensive side of things.

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FUN FACT: Eugenio Velez and Juan Castro combined to appear in fifteen games at second, starting eight.

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MLB: The Pirates have hired Dodgers assistant trainer Todd Tomczyk to be their head trainer, which still leaves the Dodgers stuck with Stan “He Looks Fine To Me” Conte.

MLB: Doug Mientkiewicz will be back with the Dodgers as an instructor. I have no real thoughts on this, because I don’t know anything about his coaching ability, and I don’t think anybody else does either.

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MSTI: Mike Petriello parsed through Ned Colletti‘s comments from an interview with Jim Bowden on ESPN. Solid analysis, but the best part by far is the Colletti truth-o-meter.

Beyond The Box Score: Among their 2011 NL West All-Stars are Jamey Carroll at 2B, Matt Kemp in CF, and Clayton Kershaw as the staff’s #1.

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MLB Trade Rumors: Ben Nicholson-Smith talks to Logan White. Don’t leave. Please.

MLB Trade Rumors: Both De Jon Watson and White have been connected to the Orioles vacancy at GM. Ugh.

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True Blue LA: Dodgers released a tentative 2012 Spring Training schedule.

True Blue LA: Eric Stephen looks at how Jamey Carroll exceeded expectations.

While I don’t have the post anymore, I’m quite sure I didn’t like his signing at all. However, by mid-2010, it became quite apparent that he was going to be a valuable player for the Dodgers going forward. It wasn’t about grittiness or hustle or whatever storyline people want to feed you, it was about him taking walks, having positional versatility, and providing dependable defense over two years where the Dodgers didn’t have much of it at the 2B, 3B, and SS positions.

Never been happier to be so wrong about a player.

Mike Scioscia’s Tragic Illness: Will the Dodgers splurge on Albert Pujols or Prince Fielder? Should they?

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Los Angeles Times: Jonathan Broxton will undergo arthroscopic surgery on his elbow. He’ll be out for about six weeks, but he should be ready for Spring Training 2012.

I suppose the Dodgers could bring him back on the one year deal he allegedly desires, but he might benefit from a fresh start with a fresh fan base that doesn’t treat him like shit.

MLB: Tony Gwynn Jr. got an MRI that revealed a jammed shoulder, but we’re still waiting on the results.

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The Seattle Times: Trayvon Robinson’s journey to the big leagues.

The Seattle Times: His path to the majors in multimedia format.