Baseball fans love to talk about clutch plays and clutch players, and Dodgers fans are no exception, but like with a pitcher’s best and worst pitches, there tends to be a lack of evidence presented. As such, I decided to find some basis for clutch plays and clutch players, courtesy of the WPA and Clutch statistics.

WPA

Most sabermetric statistics are context neutral — they do not consider the situation of a particular event or how some plays are more crucial to a win than others. While wOBA rates all home runs as equal, we know intuitively that a home run in the third inning of a blowout is less important to that win than a home run in the bottom of the ninth inning of a close game. Win Probability Added (WPA) captures this difference by measuring how individual players affect their team’s win expectancy on a per-play basis.

Clutch

In the words of David Appelman, this calculation measures, “…how much better or worse a player does in high leverage situations than he would have done in a context neutral environment.” It also compares a player against himself, so a player who hits .300 in high leverage situations when he’s an overall .300 hitter is not considered clutch.

So that’s the foundation for this post, and since that’s now been established, let’s get on with it, shall we?

As always, visuals have been provided because, let’s be honest, everything is better with visuals.

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I feel like it’s necessary to point out that none of this is predictive of the future or telling of the past. It’s a post about stuff that happened in 2012. That’s all.

In other words, please don’t link back to this while saying, “LOOK! THIS DUDE IS SO CLUTCH, BRO!” No.

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Top Five Clutchiest McClutchington Hits Of 2012

1. Adrian Gonzalez – +69.9%

Whenever you increase your team’s chances of winning by 69.9% with one swing of the bat, something must have gone right.

Well, it did.

It was the bottom of the ninth with one out and runners on first and second. The Dodgers trailed the Diamondbacks by a score of 4-3.

Down to his last strike, A-Gon comes up gigantic with a walk-off double down the right field line off J.J. Putz.

2. Ivan De Jesus – 67.3%

THANK YOU J.J. PUTZ XOXOXO HUGS AND KISSES

Trailing 7-6 with runners on first and second and down to their last out, feeble hitting Ivan De Jesus came up and whacked a double over Chris Young‘s head in center to take the lead.

Much love to J.J. Putz.

3. Scott Van Slyke – 61.1%

Early in 2012, the season was full of “yeah, this team is winning the World Series if this kinda shit happens” moments, and this was certainly one of them.

Scott Van Slyke hit a three-run bomb with runners on first and second to give the Dodgers a 6-5 lead after they trailed 5-3 with two outs in the bottom of the seventh inning.

Even though it was only the seventh, it felt like a gigantic moment, right? WPA agrees.

4. Elian Herrera – 51.6%

So it’s the top of the eighth with two outs, the Dodgers trail 1-0 and Cliff Lee is just absolutely taking a dump down their throats, and, I mean, there’s runners on first and second but Elian Herrera or whoever is up, so it’s inning ove … HOLY SHIT! YES!!!

Shoutout to Juan Pierre.

5. Luis Cruz – 50.7%

Bottom of the sixth, two outs, runners on first and second (this is a theme), Dodgers trail the Cardinals 4-3, but 2012 phenom Luis Cruz is up and he absolutely bombs one into the bullpen to put the Dodgers up by two.

Bonus points for pimping it.

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Overall, the fact that there are five different players contributing here, and that four of the five are still basically unknowns to casual fans, speaks to how remarkable it was that the 2012 Dodgers even stayed in the playoff hunt throughout all the injuries and what not.

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Top Five Clutchiest Dodgers Of 2012 – Field Player Division

1. Dee Gordon – 1.05
2. Elian Herrera – 0.93
3. Luis Cruz – 0.84
4. Juan Uribe – 0.77
5. Adrian Gonzalez – 0.72

Mark Ellis

Signed to a back-loaded two-year deal in the off-season, Mark Ellis only played in 110 games after nearly losing a leg on the play you see above, posting a ~2.7 WAR in the process. 35 now and turning 36 years of age next summer, Ellis can’t afford to lose anything physically beyond what Father Time was already taking away from him, particularly when so much of his value is derived from his glove. At the end of the day, his health might be the biggest factor in his productivity.

After posting just a .248/.288/.346/.634 line with a putrid .282 wOBA in 2011 (Ellis did finish strong though after moving to the friendly air of Coors Field), he swung the bat better in 2012, posting a .258/.333/.364/.697 slash line with a .312 wOBA. That’s still not very good offensively, but as a second baseman, Ellis isn’t paid to hit like Matt Kemp. As long as he can field the position to the degree he did in 2012 (~6.9 runs saved) and has throughout his career, he can be a solid complementary regular. Although who knows, if Don Mattingly didn’t ask him and every other number-two hitter for the Dodgers to bunt so much, maybe Ellis would have recorded a few more base-knocks.

#StopBunting, Donnie Baseball.

Anyways, slated to make $5.25 million this upcoming campaign, with a club option worth almost $6 million clams for 2014, Ellis will need to stave off old age for at least another year. Speaking of the effects of old age, the major leg injury he suffered could plausibly have had an effect on his performance at the plate (.273/.373/.364/.737 pre-injury, .251/.314/.364/.678 post-injury), though his second-half slide could also be attributed to the fact that Ellis isn’t and hasn’t ever been a great hitter.

On the bright side, Ellis did walk twice as much in ’12 as he did in ’11 (8.6/4.2 BB%), which would come in handy as the number two-hitter in front of The Bison, Adrian Gonzalez, Andre Ethier, and Hanley Ramirez. Well, it would if, you know, Donnie didn’t take the bat out of his hands constantly to pointlessly give up an out.

Jerry Hairston Jr.

Subbing in for an injured Ellis, Jerry Hairston Jr. put up a .231/.301/.330/.631 slash line in 30 games at the position before succumbing to a season-ending hip injury which required surgery. Overall, Hairston hit .273/.342/.387/.729 with a .320 wOBA.

The Swiss Army knife of players signed a back-loaded two-year deal of his own, and will make $3.75 million in 2013 while serving as a super-sub and right-handed bat with a bit of pop off the bench.

Other “Notables”

The Dodgers had a total of eight guys suit up at second, none of whom beyond Ellis and Hairston really necessitate any mention. However, it’s worth noting that Ivan De Jesus is no longer with the team, and yes, Adam Kennedy really did spend the whole season with the Dodgers, so all that wasn’t a nightmare (well, it was a nightmare, but a real one). I’ll say this for Kennedy: he walked a surprising and inordinate amount of times, at least based on his career numbers (11.4% in 2012, 6.6% for his career).

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Greg Zakwin is the founder of the site Plaschke Thy Sweater Is Argyle. Follow him on Twitter @ArgyledPlaschke.

Mike Scioscia’s Tragic Illness: Even though he’s away from home right now, I think Mike Petriello comes away from the trade with the right approach.

So how am I feeling about it today? I think Gonzalez is going to be an incredible fit in LA, especially considering that reports of his demise in Boston seem overblown (he was outstanding last year and has been very good for much of this year after a slow start) and that he never seemed to want to leave Southern California in the first place. It’s a high price to pay, but if he is what we think he is – and don’t forget, there was little available in the first base market next year, so if you’re spending money, this is how you do it – and the team becomes a consistent contender, I think it’ll be a price we can live with.

And if not? The next decade could get ugly, fast. For now, I’m cautiously optimistic, but mainly excited for the rest of the season.

I’m the same. Hopeful, but wary for reasons that I believe are legitimate. Far too many Dodgers fans pretending this is highway robbery in our favor, in my opinion.

Dodger Thoughts: Jon Weisman invokes Pedro Martinez for Delino DeShields.

The chances of De La Rosa becoming one of the greatest pitchers of all time might be slim, but De La Rosa doesn’t have to become the second Pedro to represent a major loss for the Dodgers. He could just be really good, while Gonzalez apes DeShields’ decline.

Like I said, I’m hungry for a World Series title, and I’m not saying the risk of trading De La Rosa won’t be worth it. Don’t misunderstand me: The Dodgers need a player like Gonzalez, who boosts them at their weakest position. I even believe that a move back to his Southern California roots and away from the Red Sox maelstrom could revitalize him.

All I’m saying is, short of Clayton Kershaw, the trade of any other pitcher besides De La Rosa would have left me more comfortable.

Not sure I agree with the people flipping out on him, especially if the Dodgers can’t upgrade their rotation significantly in the coming years. However, I think Adrian Gonzalez is a far better player and Rubby De La Rosa, while one of my favorites, won’t get to ace level.

Sports Illustrated: Jay Jaffe acknowledges the risk and the reward, saying that if nothing else it makes the season compelling.

All in all, it’s a dizzying deal that could affect not only the outcome of this year’s NL playoff races, but also could turn the Dodgers into the NL West’s powerhouse for years to come, with an enviable middle of the order starring Kemp, Gonzalez, Ramirez and Ethier. Or it could blow up in the team’s collective face, saddling the Dodgers with unproductive players signed to long-term deals, and hampering their roster flexibility much as it did these Red Sox.

Given their surrender of two top young arms, and the massive savings — and saving face — that the deal offered Boston, the Dodgers should have come away with far more than $12 million in salary discounts. That they didn’t puts virtually all of the risk on them, but it makes for a compellingly aggressive play in a playoff race that remains wide open.

True Blue LA: Eric Stephen notes that the team is headed for the luxury tax.

Dodgers Now: Stan Kasten says they aren’t maxed out yet though.

If the Dodgers can add $260 million to their payroll in one trade — and close to a half-billion dollars in four months — is there a limit to their spending?

“Somewhere, I suppose,” Chairman Mark Walter said Saturday.

And where might that limit be?

“I haven’t found it yet,” President Stan Kasten said. “I’ll let you know when we get there.”

Not sure how much of that is rhetoric, but I think we’ll see in the 2013 off-season.

FanGraphs: Dave Cameron thinks it doesn’t make sense from a baseball perspective but that it might make sense if the Dodgers make a deep run into the playoffs due to financials.

From a purely baseball standpoint, this investment doesn’t make sense. Gonzalez isn’t valuable enough to make him worth taking on the albatross contracts of Crawford and Beckett, and the Dodgers almost certainly could have gotten a better bang for their buck in free agency this winter. However, making moves this winter won’t get people interested in the Dodgers in the same way that a deep playoff run this year will.

I’m getting a lot of similar comments on Twitter, so I know this isn’t a rare opinion, but I have to wonder how legitimate the train of thought is. Dodgers fans show up regardless of how the team is doing, and the only reason attendance plummeted last year was because of a fan boycott of Frank McCourt. Even with all the turmoil, they were sixth in attendance last year, and this year they’re already back up to third. As such, I don’t buy the argument that they needed to do this during the season to make the playoffs otherwise fans wouldn’t come back and they wouldn’t make money. If the tens of millions from potential playoff revenue is going to make or break a team with billions of dollars looming, then there are bigger problems here.

Also, I don’t buy that this is to create buzz for a media deal. We’re all speculating, but logically I don’t see why cable companies, who negotiate deals like this all the time, would be swayed off their valuation due to a small sample size and not take into account the big 15-to-25 year picture. It’s already rumored to be in the $8 billion range, so how much higher could it go? Maybe they are that dumb, I dunno, but it seems iffy to assume so.

There’s no getting around the fact that the Dodgers likely just paid $20 for a gallon of milk. Given the prices everyone else is paying for milk, that seems pretty silly. If you happen to have lots of $20 bills and no milk, however, and there’s only one guy selling milk in your immediate vicinity, maybe you just complain about price gouging and hand over the $20. Depending on just how many $20s the Dodgers ownership has, this might not end up being quite as nuts as it looks on the surface.

Or, maybe I’m just over-thinking all of this, and the Dodgers just made a horrible, horrible trade. I’m honestly not sure.

Maybe, but I can’t see this trade destroying the team down the road. It might make for an inferior roster, but as long as they continue to spend, the team will be competitive. I’d just rather have to go through as little big money decline phases as possible.

ESPN: Buster Olney names his winners and losers … with the Dodgers on both.

Winners: The Dodgers of 2012

They are markedly better today than they were before this deal. Adrian Gonzalez is perfect for their lineup, their lineup balance, their defense and their ballpark, and he knows the division from his many years with the Padres. Beckett might be energized, and he gets to shift out of one of the best-hitting divisions to one of the worst.

Winners: Magic Johnson, Stan Kasten and the rest of the Dodgers’ ownership group

In less than four months, these owners have managed to completely rebrand the franchise, and, even if the Dodgers don’t make the playoffs this year, they’ve set themselves up for a major bounce forward in attendance and interest and team success in 2013. The city might throw them a parade even if they don’t win the World Series because, ding-dong, the Frank McCourt era is over.

Losers: The Dodgers of 2017

The team’s stunning spending spree feels good today, but Los Angeles has set itself up to have a roster loaded with aging stars in about five years — Matt Kemp, Gonzalez, Crawford and Andre Ethier all have contracts that run through that season. By then, the Dodgers’ farm system should be replenished, and the club’s ownership should have the resources to pave over that type of problem in the way the Yankees have — and, in any event, Dodgers fans won’t have to worry about that for a while.

ESPN: Keith Law takes a good now and bad later approach as well.

This deal could end up looking good for both sides, better for the Dodgers in the very short term but much better for the Red Sox in the long term. Boston enters this winter with a new financial lease on life, freeing the Sox up to spend in a weak free-agent market or perhaps to take on a large contract someone else would like to move (Cliff Lee? Justin Upton?).

They’re also looking at a pretty interesting group of position-player prospects racing up the system, led by Xander Bogaerts, who has improved his defense at shortstop this year and might defy earlier expectations and stay at the position. That potential for an inexpensive core should help Boston avoid a similar tangle of large contracts in the near future, just at a point when the Dodgers are facing a financial quagmire and roster crunch of their own.

Baseball executives are chiming in on the trade, basically questioning what the Dodgers are doing.

Rival exec on #Dodgers: “If you had $250M to spend, is this how you’d do it?”

— Ken Rosenthal (@Ken_Rosenthal) August 25, 2012

Rival execs are wondering why LADs didn’t simply say to BOS: We’ll take your bad contracts, but we’re not giving you any prospects of note.

— Buster Olney (@Buster_ESPN) August 25, 2012

NL exec view:”The Dodgers so wanted Gonzalez they took Crawford and Beckett’s money and traded two great arms to get him.”

— Peter Gammons (@pgammo) August 25, 2012

While I don’t necessarily disagree with their assessment, one has to wonder how much of this is legit and how much of this is just being jealous.

The Dodgers finalized a trade today that will send Rubby De La Rosa, Allen Webster, Jerry Sands, James Loney, and Ivan De Jesus to the Red Sox for Adrian Gonzalez, Carl Crawford, Josh Beckett, Nick Punto, and Cash.

I gave my initial reaction to the deal yesterday, but after an in-depth analysis, did anything change?

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Adrian Gonzalez

The Dodgers are paying ~$130 million for six years and a month of his services. Accounting for inflation over the course of the contract, every win will come out to ~$5 million, so the Dodgers are paying for about 26 WAR or 4.2 WAR per year.

Will he be worth it? I’m quite confident he will be, despite issues that others have concerns about.

In 2011 with the Red Sox, he hit .338/.410/.548/.957, posting a ~6.5 WAR season. He got off to a slow start in 2012, however, and thus only has a .300/.343/.469/.812 line. However, he has come on of late, and he projects to finish the year on a .301/.369/.504/.873 tear, so I don’t think he’s at the start of a precipitous decline. The primary concern is that his career 10.7 BB% has dipped to 5.9%, and it will need to rebound for him to live up to his usual standard. With that said, his batting projection puts his OPS around .860 or so, which presumes a gain in walk rate.

His fielding has never been in doubt, as he is a plus defender across all advanced metrics and I don’t think anybody would argue with it. He does lack foot speed though, which is why his baserunning total comes in low.

That’s not to say there’s minimal risk though, which makes sense, since he wouldn’t have been let go otherwise. He’s in his age-30 season right now, and aging curves tell us that he’s likely to regress over the course of his contract, as the mid-30s are generally the danger area. On the upside, I don’t see a reason to be concerned about injuries, as he has never played in less than 156 games in a full season.

Factoring everything above, A-Gon comes out to about a 5 WAR player, and he figures to be worth around 27 WAR after accounting for age regression. While he won’t be providing much surplus value beyond what he’s being paid by the Dodgers, he should be well worth the acquisition, especially considering the barren first base market and the lack of internal options. The A-Gon part of this deal is cause of excitement.

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Carl Crawford

The Dodgers are paying ~$105 million for five years and a month of his services. Accounting for inflation over the course of the contract, every win will come out to ~$5 million, so the Dodgers are paying for about 21 WAR or 4.1 WAR per year.

Unlike A-Gon, where I have trouble seeing how he’s not worth it, I have trouble seeing how Crawford will even get anywhere close to worth it.

For the past two seasons, Crawford has been … uh … a mess. He’s been worth a total of around 0.5 WAR, which needless to say doesn’t bode well for his 4.1 WAR goal. Even if you completely believe that his skills are intact, his body throws a sizable wrench into the equation to say the least, and it doesn’t help then that he may miss a few months of next season. He was projected to post a .283/.323/.446/.769 line for the rest of 2012, which is quite generous since his actual line has been .260/.292/.419/.711 for 2011 and 2012. For the projection, I put him around a .780 OPS, which is almost what he posted in his last few years with the Rays.

On the basepaths, despite his basestealing ability, he’s never been a plus baserunner, but he does clock in on the positive side of the ledger due to his speed. His defense will probably generate the biggest debate, as it was once a plus tool, but it has since regressed to average at best across the advanced metrics due to injury or whatever else. Personally though, I think he should benefit from the bigger spaces in Dodger Stadium, so he should return to form. However, it would be dishonest to just grant him plus status after two clear years of regression, so I made him just good instead of elite.

Like Gonzalez, Crawford is in his age-30 season and will regress over the course of his contract, including the dreaded mid-30s. Unlike Gonzalez, there’s ample reason to worry about Crawford’s health, and his projected playing time reflects that, clocking in at ~550 plate appearances.

Factoring everything above, Crawford comes out to about a 2.9 WAR player, and he figures to be worth around 12 WAR after accounting for age regression.

So he should be worth a bit more than half his contract, and when that contract totals in excess of $100 million that burns quite a bit. Unlike at first base, the options in the outfield, either short-term or long-term, to get better value were plentiful. Therefore, I can’t see how anybody would be excited about taking him on. The “he’s better than Juan Rivera” argument only works for this year because the Dodgers would have options in the offseason, and since Crawford won’t be playing this year there’s really no defense for this. I’m assuming a lot in his favor as it is, and if he’s right he should be a decent player for the team until late in the deal, but he certainly won’t be worth what the Dodgers are paying him unless lighting strikes.

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Josh Beckett

The Dodgers are paying ~$35 million for two years and a month of his services. Accounting for inflation over the course of the contract, every win will come out to ~$4.75 million, so the Dodgers are paying for about 7.5 WAR or 3.5 WAR per year.

I’m actually more confident that Crawford will make meaningful contributions than Beckett for reasons that go beyond statistics, so needless to say, I’m skeptical about him earning his keep.

In 2012, Beckett has a 5.23 ERA, 4.27 FIP, 4.39 xFIP, and 4.28 SIERA. That’s about the profile of Bud Norris of the Astros at the moment … if Norris was set to make $16 million annually.

The reason I only mention 2012 is this report by Kevin Goldstein of Baseball Prospectus:

Goldstein says that Beckett’s 70 fastball has turned into a 55/60. His once-biting curve has lost a similar amount of stuff: Goldstein reports that he would be “leery” of putting a 60 rating on it and might call it a 50-plus. His cutter, he explains, is at best a 40. Given how often he throws it, the cutter could be something of an Achilles’ heel for Beckett going forward.

Goldstein is not terribly optimistic about Beckett’s performance going forward and grades him as a no. 4 or no. 5 starter going forward.

That scouting report is backed by fastball velocity that has dropped from 93.8 MPH for his career to 91.6 MPH, and a strikeout rate that has gone from a career 22.2% to 17.2%. I’m not sure how anybody could reasonably expect him to bounce back to 4-5 WAR levels with that profile.

Like Gonzalez and Crawford, Beckett isn’t young. He’s in his age-32 season, is showing signs of decline, and is under contract into his mid-30s. There’s reason to worry about injury too, as he missed significant time (60-day DL) two years ago with a back strain and was placed on the DL for shoulder inflammation this year. Since he’ll likely only get to ~160 innings this year, I think giving him ~175 is generous enough.

Factoring everything above, Beckett comes out to about a 2.1 WAR player, and he figures to be worth around 4 WAR after accounting for age regression.

Like Crawford, he projects to be worth a bit more than half what he’s being paid, but it burns a lot less because it’s only a two year commitment after 2012. Of course, there’s opportunity cost here as well, because there’s always bargain options that can provide 1.5 to 2.5 WAR for a lot less than what Beckett will be paid, as Chris Capuano and the likes have proven. I suppose there’s upside hidden deep in Beckett’s profile in that maybe he regains his stuff, but I can’t bet on it due to his age. Besides, both his numbers and the scouting match each other, and that’s usually a recipe for accuracy. Hope for the best, but I wouldn’t expect anything better than a #4 starter.

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Nick Punto

The Dodgers are paying ~$2 million for one year and a month of his services. Accounting for inflation over the course of the contract, every win will come out to ~$4.5 million, so the Dodgers are paying for about 0.5 WAR or 0.4 WAR per year.

Don’t think I need a table for this one, as it’s purely to give the Dodgers a utility guy, I believe. Punto is at .200/.301/.272/.573 for 2012 and is projected to hit .229/.327/.271/.598 the rest of the way, which matches his age profile and career hitting ability. He’s above average on the bases and can play second, third, and short, where he grades out as a plus defender at every position.

His value on the bench is contingent on the Dodgers finding guys that can hit because he’s purely a defensive replacement or a spot starter. Still, he’s a solid utility guy because of his defense and versatility. He’ll be serviceable, which is all he’s being paid for, so it should be fine.

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Rubby De La Rosa

As a starter last year, he posted a 3.71 ERA/3.87 FIP/3.55 xFIP/3.85 SIERA with a 23.6 K% and a 12.2 BB% before succumbing to Tommy John surgery. After rehabbing for a year, he’s back and so is the velocity, so it seems the only thing lost was a year of development. Regardless, he has plus velocity and two potential swing-and-miss off-speed pitches in the change and slider. He’s rotation quality right now, and with command improvement, I don’t see why he couldn’t be a #2 or #3 rotation option.

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Allen Webster

After being demoted to the bullpen early in 2012, he may now be every bit the prospect that Rubby or Zach Lee is for the reasons Kevin Goldstein of Baseball Prospectus details here:

“It’s all there,” said a National League scout who was taken off his coverage to see the team. “When everything is going, he has three average-to-plus pitches and knows what to do with them.” The scout noted that Webster’s game has matured, as well. “He knows he has a really good—and potentially special—changeup, but he’s not over-relying on it anymore,” the scout explained. “It’s like he finally figured out that setting that pitch up with 92-94 mph heat is the best way to go about it, and his curveball has improved as well. He used to get over the ball and it wouldn’t finish, but now it’s breaking through the zone much better.”

His ceiling seems to be in the #2 range as well, with #3 to #4 a more likely destination. He should test the waters at the MLB level this year, and could be ready in 2013.

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Jerry Sands

For his career, his line at AAA Albuquerque is .291/.363/.557/.921 … but it’s Albuquerque. Still, I like his chances of becoming a major league contributor, though I’m not sure he’ll be worthy of holding down a left field spot for a team like the Red Sox. There’s a shot he becomes a regular, but I see him as more of a platoon guy or temporary starter as opposed to a long-term fit there.

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Ivan De Jesus

A .301/.354/.416/.770 line at Albuquerque paired with his .231/.282/.277/.559 career line with the Dodgers doesn’t bode well for him. Furthermore, while he can play second, short, and third, he’s only above average at second, so I’m not sure he even fits as a utility guy.

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James Loney

He’s been worth 0 to -1 WAR this season while making $6.5 million and he’s a free agent to be. Bye.

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So the Dodgers are paying ~$272 million to get the four mentioned players from the Red Sox, and the Red Sox will be kicking in about ~$12 million back to the Dodgers. So the team is paying for ~55 WAR of production, but is getting about ~43 WAR in value (~$212 million). As such, just by taking on the contracts alone, they figure to be looking at a surplus value around -$50 million. Then factor in the two top prospects, one solid prospect, a fringe prospect, and the corpse of James Loney, and you’re looking at quite a deficit to overcome, especially if any of them develop and hit their ceilings.

On the other hand, this undoubtedly makes the Dodgers better in the short-term, perhaps by as much as 7 or 8 wins in 2013. It should solidify the squad as a playoff favorite for this year and the next two years, perhaps even longer than that, depending on the decline phases of Crawford/Gonzalez.

While I understand that fans are excited by the prospects of that immediate improvement, I just have to wonder whether the Dodgers couldn’t do better if given ~$260 million to spend and the prospect package in question. Of the players received, only Adrian Gonzalez really fills a hole that couldn’t have been addressed in either 2013 or 2014. Then there’s the potential problems with payroll flexibility and the luxury tax that I’ve mentioned before. Also, as you can see through Jay Jaffe‘s work here, they’re really hemmed up in the short-term payroll-wise, and they now have $90 million sewn up in four players through 2017, which unfortunately doesn’t even include Clayton Kershaw yet.

As such, fans should surely enjoy the ride this year and in the immediate future, but it’s easy to justify significant concern over the long-term future of the roster, as all the risk in this deal is being taken by the Dodgers.

The Dodgers have acquired Adrian Gonzalez, Josh Beckett, Carl Crawford, Nick Punto, and Cash from the Red Sox for Rubby De La Rosa, Allen Webster, Jerry Sands, James Loney, and Ivan De Jesus, according to Jon Paul Morosi of Fox Sports.

Source confirms @gordonedes report: #Dodgers “close” to obtaining Adrian Gonzalez, Josh Beckett, Carl Crawford, Nick Punto. @mlbonfox

— Jon Morosi (@jonmorosi) August 24, 2012

Source: #Dodgers have agreed to send Allen Webster, James Loney, Jerry Sands, Ivan De Jesus, and Rubby De La Rosa to #RedSox. @mlbonfox

— Jon Morosi (@jonmorosi) August 24, 2012

Source: If #Dodgers – #RedSox blockbuster occurs — and it is “close” — Boston would send some cash to LA. @mlbonfox

— Jon Morosi (@jonmorosi) August 24, 2012

I’ll have a more detailed update on this trade later on tomorrow, but as of right now, I’m floored, honestly.

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My first impression though is to say that the trade isn’t for the better of the Dodgers overall. Yes, it makes them a better team immediately, but they likely now have limited financial flexibility for years to come. Ironically, that’s the reason the Red Sox did this deal to begin with.

Before calling me an idiot and asking me what the significance of that payroll worry is because the Dodgers now have money, maybe read this first on the Dodgers payroll and the luxury tax.

Additionally, the Dodgers are sending two top prospects to the Red Sox, both of which could contribute soon, in Rubby and Webster. Sands is certainly not a regular at this point, but he’s ready to try now, and he could develop into one. De Jesus could be a decent utility guy and Loney is whatever.

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The contract obligations the Dodgers are assuming total in excess of $250 million AFTER this year is over, and the team is giving up two of their best prospects and another solid one, so unless the cash coming back is significant, then this probably leaves the team better off in the short-term but worse off in the long-term.

Surely this drastically makes the team better now, but it also sets the Dodgers up to have an old, injury prone, and expensive roster going forward. I sure hope the Dodgers win now, because if they don’t, it could get ugly in a hurry.

The Dodgers got … positive news on a potentially serious injury? That truly is a shocker.

The Dodgers got some much-needed good news on Thursday, when an MRI on Andre Ethier’s strained left oblique showed no swelling.

The right fielder is listed as day to day and likely will avoid a trip to the disabled list.

“Yesterday I assumed we were going to be in a DL situation,” an optimistic manager Don Mattingly said. “But really the docs looked at it and didn’t see any swelling, so it really couldn’t be any better.”

Ethier, who was hopeful he could be back in a couple days Wednesday night, didn’t hit on Thursday. Test results showed no reason for a platelet-rich plasma injection, and Mattingly said he’s not sure what the approach is going to be in the next few days. However, he remained upbeat and said the news was as good as it could be.

They’ll probably play it safe for a while, but obviously that’s excellent news.

Well, except for Ivan De Jesus, who was optioned for Scott Van Slyke.

In need of an extra outfielder with Andre Ethier day to day with a strained left oblique, the Dodgers recalled Scott Van Slyke and optioned infielder Ivan De Jesus to Triple-A Albuquerque.

Jerry Sands must truly be in the shitter.

In bad news, Matt Kemp won’t be back by the end of June, and they’re not even sure if he can make it back by the All-Star break now.

Kemp has played one game since May 14 because of a left hamstring he strained twice. Mattingly said the club wants Kemp to play in five or six Minor League rehab games this time, because the two games he played in his last Minor League rehab didn’t provide enough of a test to prevent him from blowing out worse on May 30.

Mattingly said Kemp had another good workout Monday and “there’s a chance he’ll be going out to play some games,” but Mattingly wouldn’t give a time frame. He said he “hoped” it was before the All-Star break.

In good news, Mark Ellis is somehow on track to beat Kemp back to the field after getting his leg destroyed in May.

That would seem to be a miracle comeback for Ellis, who underwent emergency surgery May 19 to relieve pressure from swelling in his lower left leg after a take-out slide by St. Louis baserunner Tyler Greene.

“He’s got a chance of going out [on a Minor League rehab assignment],” manager Don Mattingly said Monday. “He’ll run the bases tomorrow. We feel like he is close. [Kemp and Ellis] are neck and neck. [Ellis] may be a touch ahead.”

Considering I was personally thinking that it would be sweet if he could just make it back by September, mid-July is quite the win.

It’s advantageous timing for the team because Elian Herrera has basically completely replaced Ellis’ production while he was gone, but now Ellis could make it back before regression completely destroys Herrera’s BABIP luck. Better yet, the team might be temped to keep Herrera and Ivan De Jesus, finally ridding the Dodgers of Adam Kennedy forever.

Best candidate ever.

Jerry Hairston Jr. is in the lineup today, meaning he has been activated off the disabled list. Unfortunately, the corresponding move is Justin Sellers heading to the disabled list with a bulging disk in his back.

Hairston is batting .315/.403/.463/.866 on the season, which isn’t even the best part, as he was one of the best defenders in the MLB for the month of April. Sellers underwent an MRI the other day due to numbness and weakness in his leg, so it’s safe to say the bulging disk was the cause of that.

That injury saves the roster spots of either Elian Herrera or Ivan De Jesus.

When Elian Herrera was recalled to the Dodgers more than a week ago, I’m sure almost no one, besides maybe Chris Jackson of the Albuquerque Examiner, knew who he was.

Now, after eight games, he’s making his mark on an injury-riddled team and he might not be the one taking the first flight back to Albuquerque when the rest of the infield gets healthy (starting potentially with Jerry Hairston, Jr. this weekend). He has a .346/.393/.462 line in those eight games, and while there’s absolutely no way he keeps that kind of production up, he’s off to a nice start in the majors.

If I had to guess, I’d say Tuesday night’s hero, Ivan De Jesus, would be the odd man out when Hairston returns Friday.

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When I watch Herrera play, I see his vast versatility and I think of old friend Jolbert Cabrera.

Cabrera was the Dodgers utility player extraordinaire during the 2003 season. He posted a .282/.332/.438 line with six home runs, 37 RBI, 32 doubles, and 43 runs scored in 380 plate appearances. Not great, but certainly really good for a utility guy, as Cabrera was a key bench piece for those Dodger teams.

To me, there’s a lot of Cabrera in Herrera (sorry for the pun).

In fact, Herrera has even better on-base and base-stealing ability (based on minor league numbers) than Cabrera, so his impact potential seems greater — if he can keep it up.

Both Cabrera and Herrera possess the defensive flexibility that teams covet in utility men. Cabrera played every position except pitcher and catcher in his one season with the Dodgers, while Herrera has already played second base, third base, and center field for the team. In the minors, he’s played every position except catcher, so he has those same versatile qualities. And yes, he has even appeared in one game as a pitcher.

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Now, it could be a case of the league not knowing a lick about Herrera yet, thus he’s producing (albeit in a small sample size) only for now. But the point is that Herrera, 27, could be someone to keep an eye on, not somebody to flippantly dismiss, which is the outlook most seem to have.

We don’t know what the future holds for him, but he has already gone from unknown lifetime minor leaguer to surprisingly effective bench player for the MLB’s best team, so counting him out has usually been a bad bet.

In about seven hours time, the Dodgers will open the season in San Diego against the Padres, finally giving us all what we’ve been craving for months: baseball that counts.

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The team made a trio of expected moves to finalize the roster before the season opens.

Ted Lilly was placed on the 15-day disabled list, retroactive to March 26.

Ivan DeJesus Jr. was placed on the 15-day disabled list, retroactive to March 26. He strained his left oblique while swinging a bat during a game on March 17 and had to leave the game mid at-bat.

Ronald Belisario, who begins serving his 25-game suspension for violating the MLB Joint Drug Agreement on Thursday, was placed on the restricted list, which opens up a spot on the 40-man roster.

The only thing I wonder is whether they fill the 40-man roster spot with somebody or just leave it open for when Ronald Belisario returns.

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By the way, the team will be spending ~114 million dollars on the roster this season, though the team they’ll be running out everyday is worth ~22 million dollars less due to dead weight. Still, ~114 million dollars isn’t exactly the poor house or anything.

The bad news first, as an MRI on the oblique of Ivan De Jesus revealed a tear.

Dodgers infielder Ivan DeJesus got some bad news this morning, as an MRI revealed a tear of his left oblique, hurt during a swing in the bottom of the seventh inning on Saturday night against the Giants. Manager Don Mattingly said there was no timetable for the return of the infielder.

As I said before, him not making the team isn’t a big deal, but him being out for a significant amount of time with a lingering, slow healing injury after he just made his recovery from a catastrophic injury really sucks for him personally and dampens his chances of becoming a utility guy in the future.

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The good news is that Matt Guerrier looks to be fine.

Matt Guerrier threw a bullpen session this morning for the first time in over a week, after missing time with back tightness. Up next for the reliever will likely be facing live hitters in a minor league game on Friday.

I know the Dodgers are paying him a lot of money, but I’m not sure how convinced I am that he is markedly better than some of the hard-throwing prospects the Dodgers have waiting at this point.

The Dodgers won’t know for certain the extent of Ivan De Jesus’ oblique injury until an MRI is taken Monday, but manager Don Mattingly conceded any playing time missed greatly hampers an already-longshot bid for an Opening Day roster spot.

“It’s hard to compete when you can’t be out there,” said Mattingly. “With this type of injury, there’s not a lot you can do. If you lose eight to 10 days, how many days does it take just to get your timing back? Not a good time to get hurt. You could see it on his face last night. These guys know it hurts your chance.”

Hopefully it’s just a mild strain, but they don’t sound that optimistic.

In better news, Matt Guerrier sounds like he might be ready to go by the start of the season.

Mattingly had better news on reliever Matt Guerrier, who has been out a week with lower back pain. He said the right-hander has continued to improve and plans to throw off a mound Monday. If that goes well, he could face hitters in a simulated game Wednesday and might be game-ready by next weekend.

I’m starting to wonder if it might be better just to put him on the disabled list to start the season and take it slow.

The bullpen is very deep this year, so he would just be a middle reliever with this group anyway. Plus, the team would get extra time to evaluate a camp arm in actual games.

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Eight more players were cut from the Dodgers today, seven of whom were reassigned and one who was released.

The Dodgers made their second round of player cuts on Sunday, moving four pitchers and four position players out of the Major League clubhouse.

Left-handed pitcher Alberto Castillo was released. Reassigned to Minor League camp were these non-roster invitees: pitchers Ryan Tucker, Matt Chico and Will Savage; catchers Gorman Erickson and Matt Wallach; and infielders Lance Zawadzki and Jeff Baisley.

I actually wanted to see more of Gorman Erickson, but as with the last time, no real surprises.

Dominican Summer League Dodgers: Pitchers
Dominican Summer League Dodgers: Hitters
Arizona League Dodgers: Pitchers
Arizona League Dodgers: Hitters
Ogden Raptors: Pitchers
Ogden Raptors: Hitters
Great Lakes Loons: Pitchers
Great Lakes Loons: Hitters
Rancho Cucamonga Quakes: Pitchers
Rancho Cucamonga Quakes: Hitters
Chattanooga Lookouts: Pitchers
Chattanooga Lookouts: Hitters
Albuquerque Isotopes: Pitchers

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Today I continue my off-season recap of the Los Angeles Dodgers minor league affiliates, moving on to the hitters of the Albuquerque Isotopes.

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I’ll be picking the prospects for the 2012 Prospective Prospect Profiles list from these reviews, so it might be worth reading. Or not.

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Ivan De Jesus – 2B – 24

Ivan DeJesus Statistics

I’m still not sure if he just wasn’t ever as good as we thought or that the broken leg truly derailed his career, but he certainly struggled after the injury. While the .311/.387/.432/.819 is nice, the league average OPS was .806, so it wasn’t anything special.

That said, it was just nice to see him get some semblance of plate discipline back, as what used to be a clear strength completely evaporated after his injury. He got back to walking a bit at a 9.9% clip in 2011 to go along with a 15.7% strikeout rate. By comparison, prior to his injury, he posted a 13.6% walk rate and a 14.5% strikeout rate in what was arguably a more difficult environment in AA.

His .188/.235/.188/.423 line with a 5.7 BB% and a 31.4 K% in a short trial in the majors certainly won’t help, but it’s not damning. For me, the bigger concern is whether he continues to make progress on his way back from the injury or if this is as good as we’re going to get. As of now, he could be a useful utility player down the road.

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Justin Sellers – SS/2B/3B – 25

Justin Sellers Statistics

After his defensive showing last year, there were ruminations among Dodger fans that he could be a starter, but his struggles with the bat seemed to quiet that train of thought (.203/.283/.301/.583). However, he does have positional flexibility, and has shown gap power, solid contact, and the ability to walk in the minors (.306/.403/.541/.944), so I think becoming a key utility man isn’t out of the question.

Sellers does play solid defense at three infield positions, and if he can make consistent enough contact to keep his batting average closer to .250 than the Mendoza Line, I think he can have usefulness for the team for years down the road.

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Tim Federowicz – C – 23

Tim Federowicz Statistics

Federowicz hit .321/.418/.630/1.048 for Albuquerque, but his .278/.341/.413/.754 line in AA for Portland was probably more indicative of his offensive talent.

He has average contact ability, average plate discipline, and average pop in the minors, all of which project to be below average to poor in the majors. However, what keeps him relevant is his solid catch-and-throw ability and good defense behind the plate.

Since catchers don’t need to hit much to be useful, I suppose the hope is that he can become a below average hitter and thus be a useful regular with his defensive abilities. As you already likely know, I’m skeptical of defense first catchers that have to learn how to hit, because I don’t think it generally works out that way.

Ned Colletti has signed Jerry Hairston Jr. to a 2 year deal worth 6 million dollars because…of course. Dylan Hernandez of the Los Angeles Times reports that he’ll make $2.25 million in 2012 and $3.75 million in 2013, which means the contract is back loaded because…of course.

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In all fairness, Hairston is certainly versatile and useful, as he can play 2B, 3B, SS, CF, and LF. Being brought on as a utility infielder though is puzzling, as it means the Dodgers arguably have at least five of them in Hairston, Juan Uribe, Adam Kennedy, Justin Sellers, and Ivan DeJesus.

Over 300 plate appearances, he totals -5 batting, -0.5 baserunning, -1 defense, 0.5 position, and 10 replacement.

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In 2010 with the Padres, Hairston put up a .244/.299/.353/.652 line, but followed that with a better 2011 split between the Nationals and Brewers, posting a .270/.344/.383/.727 slash. Given that he’ll be going into his age 36 season, I put Hairston around .260/.330/.370/.700 with a .310 wOBA or so.

With the glove, he’s about average or on the fringes of average at 2B, 3B, CF, and SS, but excels in LF. However, I project him to mainly play the former positions rather than the latter, unless they bench both Juan Rivera and Jerry Sands and any upcoming prospects from that position, thus making my head explode.

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The Dodgers are in a bit of a Catch-22 situation now, as Jerry Hairston Jr. and the rest of the utility infielder Avengers could all be worth their contracts if they get adequate playing time. However, in order to get that playing time, one of these guys has to lose it and thus be completely not worth their deals. Since no projected regular or backup are free of Ned Colletti’s hands except Dee Gordon and Justin Sellers, it’s almost a no win situation having this many guaranteed deals for mediocre players, with some of them being on multiple year deals.

I already mentioned previously that I actually didn’t mind Jerry Hairston Jr. on the team, and I honestly still don’t, mainly because of the versatility he brings to the table. I think there’s value beyond his WAR in the way he fills out a bench. However, the problem, as with most of Ned Colletti’s signings, is the opportunity cost of the deal and his asset management.

I know it sounds like I’m beating a dead horse by saying that, but I can’t not say it, because it’s a sad reality.

Jamey Carroll

On the back-end of a two-year deal, Jamey Carroll put up another solid season as a super-utility man, and all at the baseball old age of 37. Though his numbers dipped across the board from what was the second best season of his career, he still contributed 2.2 WAR while primarily playing second.

In 146 games and 510 plate appearances, Carroll put up a .290/.359/.347 line with a .321 wOBA and 104 wRC+ while walking in 10% of his trips to the plate, as compared with just over 11% of his appearances ending in a strikeout.

Again, his 2010 numbers were better (.291/.379/.339, .329 wOBA, 12.3 BB%, 2.5 WAR) with the notable exception that Jamey cut down on his whiffs this past season and played worse defense (11.4 UZR/150 at second in 2010, down considerably in 2011 at -8.0 in 330 more innings). However, for a guy who played so much due to injury and ineptitude, he was yet again one of the bright spots in an otherwise dismal year.

Carroll was not traded so as to mentor Dee Gordon, and it would make sense to bring the veteran back on a one-year deal to play rover and continue his mentoring duties. Not that I particularly buy that a mentor is necessary for a young player, but if it means less playing time for Juan Uribe, I’m all for it. After all, a good way to improve the team is to stop playing players like Uribe. Carroll’s OBP in 81 games at second was .355; I sincerely doubt Ewribe could pull off that feat.

Aaron Miles

I don’t feel it’s necessary to re-hash too much of my previous spiel on Miles that can be found in my Third Base Season Review post, so I’ll just give his numbers as a second baseman in 2011, a position which he occupied for 72 games.

.288/.302/.362/.664 and a UZR/150 of 0.2 in over 500 innings.

Sigh? Sigh.

Also-Rans

Five other Dodgers saw time at second base, led by Uribe and Justin Sellers. Ivan DeJesus was given just a brief tryout, and with his exclusion from the September call-ups in 2011, his time as a viable option with the Dodgers is probably over. Which is a shame, because the man has shown a great ability to draw a walk during the vast majority of his minor league career, at least prior to his injury.

I could live with Sellers as a one-year fill-in, but the career minor leaguer is nothing more than that: filler. On the bright side, Sellers did display good leather, particularly at short and third, and was a plus at all three positions on the defensive side of things.

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FUN FACT: Eugenio Velez and Juan Castro combined to appear in fifteen games at second, starting eight.