The Dodgers begin their 2013 Spring Training with a ton of injury concerns, and now that the whole team has reported, it’s time for an update on player statuses.

No better way to start this off than with Chad Billingsley, who might be the biggest question mark of all even if the depth acquired has mitigated the consequences if he does falter. Coaches say he looks normal, trainers have him on his normal schedule, and he says he feels normal.

“I feel normal,” said Billingsley, who chose platelet-rich plasma injections over Tommy John surgery, as Takashi Saito did successfully five years ago. “There wasn’t a time in the offseason when I felt like I didn’t know if it would hold up,” Billingsley said. “I know some people think it’s an issue, but I don’t. I came to Spring Training not worried about it.”

“They pushed me, basically gave me a chance to blow it out, figuring if it was going to fail, it would be better to know then,” said Billingsley. “In the simulated game, I felt awesome. I’m really excited.”

Billingsley is on a regular schedule and he has no restrictions. “There hasn’t been any mention in any of the medical reports or anything else. His name’s not on a list, it’s not on anything. He’s just like one of the guys getting ready. We’re really getting to the point where we’re just assuming he’s going to be ready, and he’s going to be fine,” Mattingly said.

Difficult not to be encouraged, but we’ve heard this song and dance before with a lot of injuries, and it’s hard to argue against the previous science of trying to rehab partially torn elbow ligaments.

Remember, not if, but when.

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Carl Crawford is another gigantic question mark for 2013, and he doesn’t seem to be coming along quite as quickly as he planned.

Carl Crawford, though, is not as far along in his recovery from August Tommy John surgery on his left (throwing) elbow. He’s throwing up to 90 feet, hitting off a tee and hopes to graduate in the next few days to live pitching, which Kemp did weeks ago.

Crawford said he’s “confident” he’ll be ready by Opening Day, depending on what the Dodgers “want to see.”

“I think I can hit the cutoff man, but I don’t know if that’s where they want me to come back,” he said. “I think I’m an everyday guy, but I understand the thought of easing me back in.”

Crawford said he has no pain in his elbow, “just typical muscle fatigue,” and that his arthritic left wrist hasn’t given him trouble, but “it’s something to stay on top of throughout the season.”

Depending on what the Dodgers want to see? They want to see a healthy outfielder, not a guy who is 75% and lobbing the ball in to the cutoff man. He has a noodle arm as it is, after all.

On the positive side of things, Don Mattingly seems encouraged by his progress.

Mattingly was very pleased with Carl Crawford, who participated in batting practice today. ” Carl was good, I was really surprised.” “With Carl being out on the field for the first time, he’d been swinging,” but today was the first time he was out on the field in a while.

All three outfielders spent time hurt last year, so it seems weird they have three backups for the rotation, but don’t even have a platoon partner for Andre Ethier yet.

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Scott Elbert sounds encouraged even though he’s coming off elbow surgery that necessitated the signing of lefty relievers to ensure that the team isn’t just relying on Paco Rodriguez.

“They didn’t give me a time frame, but it looks like May,” said Elbert, whose second surgery led to the signing of free-agent reliever J.P. Howell for $2.85 million.

On Sept. 19, Elbert underwent a first procedure to remove scar tissue in the back of the elbow. But after beginning a throwing program, he developed pain in a different area that led to a Jan. 23 arthroscopic procedure involving “a new area of cartilage damage [that] was discovered and debrided” by Dr. Neal ElAttrache, according to Elbert.

“It feels a lot better now,” Elbert said of the elbow. “After the first surgery, I tried throwing for two weeks but had to shut it down. It never calmed down; it just hurt.”

Elbow surgery isn’t as significant a deal anymore, but when they start piling up, there has to be some concern there for the future a la Hong Chih Kuo.

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Kenley Jansen had a minor issue with an ingrown toenail, which doesn’t seem to be anything to worry about. Hell, I was almost glad the issue was that and not something related to his heart.

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In more worrisome news, Chris Withrow needs an MRI on his ailing back, the same problem that has plagued him in the minors.

It’s becoming a chronic issue, and while he’s converted to a relief role in an attempt to reign in his stuff, this injury might be a bigger obstacle to his progress than his command at this point.

On December 12th, the Los Angeles Dodgers tendered contracts to a trio of arbitration eligible players: Clayton Kershaw, Andre Ethier, and James Loney. However, they elected to not tender a contract to Hong Chih Kuo. The other two arbitration eligible players, Matt Kemp and Tony Gwynn Jr., were signed to extensions earlier.

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According to MLB Trade Rumors, the projected arbitration salaries for the quartet were $10.7 million for Ethier, $8.4 million for Kershaw, $6.5 million for Loney, and $2.5 million for Kuo.

Ned Colletti made the right decision on all four, as Ethier, Kershaw, and Loney all project to be worth more than their arbitration numbers, and Kuo’s injury history and anxiety disorder are reason enough to not want to pay a premium.

Kenley Jansen

Relief pitchers are a fungible group, as many non-traditional sports analysts around the web have pointed out time and time again. Overpaying for them, particularly veteran arms, rarely works out. Constructing a pen on the cheap is the preferred way to go, especially when you have proven as an organization to be able to develop young arms year after year.

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Kenley Jansen burst onto the season in mid-2010 with a bang, displaying an amazing ability to miss bats and wowing fans as the former catcher registered in the high 90s consistently and touched triple digits on occasion. He cemented a place for himself in the pen for 2011, and looked to be one half of the eighth inning set-up tandem as the season begin. With injuries and ineffectiveness all around him, Jansen had the opportunity to take on a larger role, but unfortunately the young flamethrower ran into ailments of his own which shelved him on two separate occasions (right shoulder inflammation, irregular heartbeat) and saw him take a trip back to AA Chattanooga as well.

Outside of a few rocky appearances prior to that first disabled list stint, Jansen had a monumentally phenomenal season. He set the major league record for strikeouts per nine innings with a 16.1 mark while putting up a 2.06 tERA, 1.74 FIP, and 1.59 SIERA in 53 and two-thirds innings. His walks were still plentiful (4.36 per nine), but he showed remarkable improvement in that area, walking 20 in 30.2 IP prior to the All-Star Break and just six in 23 innings post-ASB.

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Jansen was actually utilized in the best possible way by Don Mattingly this past season, much to the delight of those non-traditional analysts previously mentioned: he’s the fireman of the group. He’s brought in when the situation is the most demanding and requires the best reliever, as opposed to when there’s a save situation. And that’s the way it should be.

Jansen misses the most bats out of anyone on the Dodgers, and also induces infield popups at a double digit rate (10.9% in 2011, 16% in 2010). His September was absolutely filthy, as he fanned 32 in just just under 14 innings while walking three. He finished with a WAR of 1.5, triple the man who will be reviewed next.

Jansen possesses by far the most game-changing arm out of anyone in the pen, and should be used when you absolutely need to shut down the other team. That might be the seventh, it might be the eighth, and it could perhaps be the ninth. Pigeonholing him into a certain role would be detrimental to the team, and if Don Mattingly wants to continue to be better than his predecessor, he’ll bring in Kenley to put out fires (and he’ll bunt less, but that’s an entirely different conversation for an entirely different post and day).

Javy Guerra

Javy Guerra made his major league debut in May, and received much fanfare after closing out a few games and racking up a few pretty saves. And by pretty, I mean people liked seeing the “S” by his name; the outings themselves were not always something to cherish. After a couple of months, Guerra sat with a pair of saves and a win, but his peripherals showed that he was fortunate to have those counting stats: a 9:5 K:BB mark and a .344 opponents’ OBP showed that Guerra was not overpowering teams and certainly had not cemented himself as the team’s premier shutdown reliever.

July proved to be a turning point, as Javy had his best month as a big leaguer, fanning nine in nine innings against two walks and eleven baserunners. A solid September followed before Guerra was roughed up in October, allowing his first two major league home runs and issuing eight free passes against ten strikeouts. Overall, Guerra’s rookie campaign was a fairly solid one for a pitcher who had never thrown above AA previously and came in with fairly limited expectations, as he posted a 3.59 tERA, a 3.30 FIP, and a 3.69 SIERA while striking out 7.33 and walking 3.47 per nine.

He’ll clearly need to either fan more or walk less, and BABIP was in his favor in 2011 (2.61), but for the small amount he’ll make heading into 2012, Guerra stands to be a solid contributor if he can tighten up the rough edges to his game.

Matt Guerrier

Matt Guerrier was one of Ned Colletti’s big off-season signings, coming to LA for three years and $12 million dollars. A highly, highly overrated reliever coming out of Minnesota, Guerrier had a solid season. Appearing in at least 70 games for the fifth straight season and pitching 66 and a third innings, Matt posted a 3.43 FIP and had a strikeout to walk ratio of two to one. He fanned under seven per nine and had a 1.27 WHIP as your run-of-the-mill middle reliever.

Veteran relievers being signed to long-term, big money deals rarely work out, and at 33-years-old, there’s nowhere to go but down at this point. Guerrier has a place in a bullpen, but not for the money Colletti valued him at. Hopefully he can be decent enough to be flipped this season to a team in need of an arm, as the Dodgers are beyond stacked with young arms waiting in the wings.

Jonathan Broxton

Jonathan Broxton was the real wild card, as his first half of 2010 was phenomenal, but his second half saw both struggles and a clear dip in velocity. The dip in velocity was evident yet again, as he clocked in around 90-93 as opposed to his usual 97-99.

The wear from Joe Torre‘s over-usage during the Yankees series the previous season was beyond apparent, as Big Jon’s numbers dipped across the board. He struck out under eight per nine after never having been in single digits in his previous big league seasons, and he posted an uncharacteristically horrid tERA of 7.34, FIP of 5.63, and 4.75 SIERA. His WHIP ballooned to 1.89 before succumbing to an elbow bruise and bone spur in his pitching elbow.

As if more proof were needed that it was Torre’s mismanagement that felled Broxton, Jonathan was back up in the high-90s in a handful of minor league rehab appearances after rest, but ultimately he could not get healthy and was shut down for the season.

A free agent heading into 2012, I am fully supportive of bringing him back if he can prove to be healthy. That would entail a minor league deal in all likelihood, though I would not be surprised to see some team take a shot on him with a guaranteed contract based on his past track record of dominance and excellence.

Hong-Chih Kuo

Hong-Chih Kuo, coming off a superb 2010 (1.81 FIP, 2.2 WAR, 10.95 K/9), dealt with both arm injuries and anxiety in 2011. He only threw 27 innings and saw his control vanish as his walk rate jumped to 7.67 per nine and he allowed more long balls than in the previous two seasons (and 90 innings) combined. His FIP was 5.06, and he couldn’t be counted on from jump street. Always an injury risk, 2011 proved to be the polar opposite of 2010, as everything that could go wrong for him did.

With the recent news that Kuo will undergo elbow surgery yet again, his Dodger career looks to be over not just for the foreseeable future, but perhaps for good, as he may never be able to pitch again.

Us fans will always have his utter dominance and the epic bat flip to remember him by though, which is more than most players can say. Hopefully Hong-Chih can attempt a comeback if he so chooses, but if this indeed is the end, perhaps the best way to sum up Kuo is that he was an elite talent who was never granted the chance by the baseball and elbow gods to fully live up to that enormous potential.

Credit: The LFP

ESPN: Josh Fisher of Dodger Divorce broke down the settlement between Frank and Jamie McCourt.

What makes this settlement different from the last one?

Nearly four months ago, the couple reached a settlement agreement only to have it fall apart days later. The principal difference between this settlement and the one announced in June is that this time, the settlement is not contingent on baseball’s approval of a future media rights deal. The previous settlement vanished when Frank could not secure a long-term rights agreement with Fox. Here, the deal is done, and Frank now has an affirmative obligation to pay Jamie $130 million by a specific date.

That’s basically the gist of the settlement, but what’s going on soon is the actual court session.

What’s at stake for Frank and the Dodgers in bankruptcy court?

Beginning Oct. 31, the parties will converge for a week of hearings in the club’s bankruptcy case. Frank seeks a determination that he can go against Fox and baseball to sell the club’s television rights. League attorneys argue that such a sale would breach the Dodgers’ existing contract with Fox Sports, leaving the team subject to substantial legal claims, while also providing grounds for termination from the league for failure to abide by its covenants.

It’s clear Frank’s ownership cannot survive if the court blocks his attempt to sell the club’s future broadcast rights. It is the key to his plan of reorganization, and for now, it is the only plan on the table. Baseball seeks to propose its own plan, under which the club would be sold. The league claims those television rights are the last major source of untapped revenue available to the Dodgers and that potential bidders would be much less interested in purchasing the team if an unfavorable media rights deal is in place.

Please get him the fuck out. Please.

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Los Angeles Times: Bill Shaikin reports that MLB has accused Frank McCourt of taking 189.16 million from the Dodgers.

In the filing, the league claimed McCourt funneled $73 million in parking revenue through Blue Land Co., a non-team related entity; used $61.16 million in team revenue to pay off personal debts; and took $55 million from team revenue for personal distributions.

The Dodgers claim Selig approved the business structures about which he now complains, including the Blue Land mechanism by which the Dodgers pay $14 million in annual rent to play in their own stadium. The league claims McCourt misled Selig about some of those structures and concealed others.

The Dodgers also charge Selig with bad faith in declaring he would reject any television contract proposed by McCourt. The league claims any deal would necessarily require McCourt to divert some team revenue for personal use, including a $130-million divorce settlement.

That claim, the Dodgers said, is “simply make believe.”

Disgusting.

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Dodger Divorce: Josh Fisher with a link to the differences between the MLB’s plan and the Dodgers’ plan, according to the MLB.

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Los Angeles Times Blog: Hong Chih Kuo‘s elbow is barking. Guy can’t catch a break.

Sports Illustrated: Joe Posnanski recaps the greatest night in regular season baseball ever.

Baseball Prospectus: Colin Wyers and why we need the pain that comes from losing.

Beyond The Box Score: 1 in 250,000. Yeah, we aren’t gonna witness anything like that again.

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Dodger Thoughts: Jon Weisman rains on the parade of Dodgers fans who believe that all the money coming off the books will mean payroll flexibility.

It’s a good read, mainly because I was in the camp that though the Dodgers would have significant wiggle room.

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MLB: Alex Tamin has been hired to handle contract arbitration and contract negotiations. He’ll have big shoes to fill.

MLB: Hong Chih Kuo’s baseball future is undecided. Quite frankly, it’s sorta depressing.

Tonight’s game was a rather uneventful affair in what amounted to a meaningless game for the Dodgers, only notable for Chad Billinglsey’s continued inability to miss bats and Jerry Sands’ solid all-around game. For better or worse though, Gerardo Parra decided to spice things up for everybody involved in the top of the seventh after he took offense to a high and inside pitch from Hong Chih Kuo.

The pitch in question (below) sailed on Kuo up and in after A.J. Ellis clearly set up on the outside corner. Parra obviously took offense to the pitch immediately, staring at Kuo and grabbing his crotch, though Kuo himself didn’t seem to care or notice.

My thoughts? Parra clearly wasn’t thinking at all. Obviously he might not know that Kuo went on the disabled list with the yips and that he has been quite bad for the entire year, but he could know that hitting a batter for no reason whatsoever in the top of the seventh inning while ahead by one run is less than logical.

Idiot.

Apparently though, on ESPN’s Baseball Tonight, Chris Singleton and Mark Mulder thought Parra was justified, which reinforces the point that players are usually idiots and should rarely be used as analysts.

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After Parra hit a home run off Kuo later in the at-bat was when the real trouble started though, as he pimped the homer, stared down Kuo while rounding the bases, and jawed a bit with Ellis.

I may have taken a few liberties with the GIF interpretation of the events. Maybe.

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As expected, the Dodgers dugout was none too happy with the events that transpired and jawed with Matt Williams, and Clayton Kershaw in particular was quite animated.

Welp, if nothing else, this just gave me a damn good reason to watch tomorrow’s game.

During the 2010-2011 off-season, the Dodgers aimed to improve on what was an effective unit in 2010 (3.80 FIP/8th In MLB). With all their veteran relievers making their Los Angeles exit, the rest of the potential returning cast consisted primarily of pre-arbitration players making the major league minimum, with only Jonathan Broxton locked into a high paying salary for 2011. The predominantly untested nature of the bullpen didn’t sit well with the Dodgers, so they went out and re-signed Vicente Padilla as a reliever, avoided arbitration with Hong Chih Kuo, traded for Blake Hawksworth, gave Mike MacDougal and Lance Cormier minor league contracts, and made a long term commitment to Matt Guerrier.

While handing out millions to seemingly solid and steady veteran relievers is rarely going to play poorly in the media or among fans, they often prove to be unnecessary and costly additions to the roster. Now the Dodgers bullpen in 2011 has been quite effective as a whole, ranking 8th in the MLB in FIP at 3.58, but were the expensive veteran members all that important to the 2011 unit’s success?

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*50% fWAR (FIP) & 50% rWAR (ERA)
*5,000,000 Dollars Per Win
*Salary Data From True Blue LA
*SV=Surplus Value

Guerra, Jansen, Elbert, Lindblom, and Troncoso are all pre-arbitration farm system arms who have combined for $11,134,000 in SV. MacDougal was given a minor league contract with a mere $500,000 major league option and netted the Dodgers $2,750,000 in SV. Hawksworth, despite his -$676,000 total, was acquired in a trade that rid the Dodgers of Ryan Theriot, who is currently putting up a 0.1 WAR at a $3,300,000 salary for a -$2,800,000 SV, so feel free to credit Hawksworth with that.

Guerrier was the big money free agent signing, and he was actually decently productive in 2011. Unfortunately, the only reason he clocks in at positive value is because of the deferred nature of his overall contract (4 Y/12 M), so he’ll have to get better in a hurry if he wants to continue breaking even. The more likely scenario is that it ends up being a neutral to poor overall transaction.

The four pitchers who rank the lowest happen to include three of the top bullpen salaries, with Broxton, Kuo, and Padilla combining for -$17,725,000 in SV. Also clocking in at the bottom of the pile is Cormier (-$4,050,000 SV), who inexplicably made $800,000 in the majors and was inexplicably allowed to pitch 13.2 innings before the Dodgers realized how terrible he was.

Overall, it’s quite clear where the value lies in the Dodgers pen, as the data demonstrates that the most productive and most valuable members of the 2011 bullpen have been the farm system arms, and more specifically, those making 500k and below, basically around the major league minimum.

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While the status quo maintains that locking down relievers with track records of success to million dollar deals will lead to overall bullpen stability, it would do the Dodgers and their fans well going forward to remember that money spent hardly guarantees productivity and success, especially with a commodity as volatile as bullpen arms.

Over the course of the 2011 season, the Dodgers relief corps has proved that bullpen arms are indeed a fickle and fungible group, with production to be found from a multitude of sources, and that the most value out of the pen is commonly derived from those making the least. Sticking with cheap team controlled building blocks in the bullpen can be highly effective, and the money used to sign costly relievers can frequently be better used elsewhere.

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Published @ True Blue LA as well.