The Rangers are favorites to land Zack Greinke, according to Jeff Fletcher of The Orange County Register.

For what it’s worth, I was told today the #Rangers are the favorites for Greinke. It could all just be posturing now. Wait and see.

That goes against what Jim Bowden of ESPN said though.

Los Angeles Dodgers are considered the front runner for Zack Greinke according to source with knowledge of the negotiations…. but NOT over

Of course, while Bowden is a former GM, he doesn’t come off as much of a reporter, and all the hype about Greinke to the Dodgers does seem a bit trumped up out of nowhere.

As I’ve stated before though, to any Dodger fan, he has to be the top choice of the off-season.

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Tim Brown of Yahoo! Sports reports that Brian Wilson‘s first choice after the Giants is … the Dodgers.

Hearing Brian Wilson’s first choice to pitch in 2012 — outside of SF — is for the Dodgers. He lives in LA during offseason.

Rather than do any analysis of this, I’m just going to say that this would be a nightmare.

I don’t care if it’s a good price or not, just … ugh. No.

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Mark Saxon of ESPN Los Angeles reports that the Dodgers have interest in Kyle Lohse.

Source: Dodgers showing interest in Kyle Lohse

I’d take this with a grain of salt since there’s no support for it elsewhere and because he also said Hiroki Kuroda was going somewhere in Los Angeles and that the Dodgers approached Torii Hunter with a two-year deal.

Needless to say, if the Dodgers payroll is what it’s rumored to be, this would be an utterly confusing signing.

Didn’t realize it until I was done typing it up, but this is an exclusively Japanese player rumor update.

Anyway, Kyuji Fujikawa is reportedly down to five teams, with one of them being the Dodgers.

Fujikawa has reportedly met with the Dodgers, Angels, Orioles, Cubs and Diamondbacks. The Rangers are also said to have interest in the 32-year-old, who has been Japan’s best closer for the past several years. He is reportedly looking for a multiyear deal on his first foray into Major League Baseball. Because he is a free agent, interested teams are not required to go through the posting process with Fujikawa.

The Dodgers earlier “interest” has now been specified to “finalist” as they look to add even more dynamite to a bullpen with boom or bust potential.

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According to Nikkan Sports, Shohei Otani is meeting with the Nippon Ham Fighters, and one of the team’s pitches to him is letting him hit as well as pitch.

Basically, the team’s General Manager said that he can be a pioneer in Japanese baseball, as attempting such a dual role in the MLB is not possible. Also, they’ve scheduled another meeting for next week.

So I guess the gist of it is that they are willing to let him do whatever he wants if he’ll sign with them.

I wouldn’t read too much into it, but he has gone from completely dismissing any notion of staying in Japan to meeting with the team regularly, so there has to be more concern than there was on draft day.

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Those dreams of signing Hiroki Kuroda have now ended, even if the Dodgers and Angels were allegedly the preferred destinations for him, as the Yankees have re-signed the starter for a year.

The Yankees have retained their most consistent starter from 2012 as the club has announced that it has re-signed Hiroki Kuroda to a one-year contract. ESPN’s Buster Olney reports that Kuroda’s contract is worth $15MM (plus incentives worth less than $1MM) and was the first to break the news that Kuroda had agreed to terms with New York (Twitter links). Kuroda is represented by the Octagon agency.

Obviously Zack Greinke, Anibal Sanchez, and Hyun Jin Ryu are still very much in play for the Dodgers.

The Dodgers are the favorite to win the Zack Greinke sweepstakes, according to Michael Silverman of the Boston Herald.

According to an industry insider, the Dodgers are the favorites to wind up with top free agent starter Zack Greinke, with the Angels and Rangers on the outside looking in. And no starting pitcher on the market is going to be complaining by the end of the hot stove season.

Furthermore, “rival GMs” are telling ESPN‘s Buster Olney that if the Dodgers want him, they’ll get him.

The Rangers want Zack Greinke and are willing to be aggressive. The Angels want to keep Greinke. But ultimately, rival GMs predict, if the Dodgers intend to sign Greinke, they will get him. L.A. is also bidding for Hiroki Kuroda, whom they know well from his previous time with the team. “Cost is no object for them,” said a GM. “They are playing a different game than the rest of us right now.”

All of this is great news if you were worried (like me) about how the pitching rotation would shake out even with all this spending. Greinke, despite whatever concerns you may have about him, has more than enough talent to slot in as a #1/#2 type behind Clayton Kershaw.

—–

The Dodgers are also front-runners (or close to it) for Hiroki Kuroda‘s services, according to Mark Saxon of ESPN Los Angeles.

Previously, teams have been under the impression that Kuroda would either re-sign with the New York Yankees or return to his native Japan to finish his career. But Kuroda has told friends that his first preference is to pitch in Southern California, where his two daughters are attending elementary school.

Joel Sherman of the New York Post adds that the Yankees are only willing to give him a one-year deal, which only adds to the chances that he ends up in California.

That is because, The Post has learned, the Yankees are willing to offer Kuroda just a one-year contract at present. Two other teams that seemingly would be attractive to Kuroda, the Dodgers and Angels, probably would be willing to offer at least a two-year pact to the righty.

I do wonder how much truth there is to all of this talk, because signing two or three starters in free agency (also rumored to be in on Anibal Sanchez) would mean they have eight or nine starters going into 2013. Now, after that A-Gon trade, I’m never going to completely dismiss a Dodger rumor when it comes to them spending money, but it does seem unlikely that they are in the lead for all these pitchers.

As far as Kuroda goes, I’m not sure how much legitimacy there is in him wanting a two-year deal. With the way he pitched a couple years ago, if he wanted a multi-year deal he could have got one, but he took that one-year deal because he wasn’t sure about his feelings in the future. Perhaps he changed his mind, but it would seem inconsistent with his previous behavior that he would now want to be locked in for more than a year.

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Dodgers are a member of the group of teams after Kyuji Fujikawa.

Right-hander Kyuji Fujikawa started meeting with MLB clubs and touring their facilities this past week, reports Gerry Fraley of The Dallas Morning News. He’s already visited the Diamondbacks and Cubs and is expected to meet with both the Dodgers and Angels as well. It’s unclear if he’ll meet with the Rangers on this trip.

An interesting relief option out of Japan. Video from the 2012 NPB season here:

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Nick Cafardo of The Boston Globe says Kevin Youkilis is on the radar for the Dodgers.

9. Kevin Youkilis, 1B/3B, free agent — Good-sized market so far for Youkilis, at both third and first base, according to his agent, Joe Bick. The Indians are looking at him as a first baseman, while the Phillies and Dodgers are considering him at third (a back-burner option for the Dodgers). The Diamondbacks made a call, but Towers indicated they will likely not be involved.

Hell, why not, right? If the rumors are true that they’re just going to spend anything they want, why not sign Youkilis? Even if you like Luis Cruz over him, Youkilis is useful off the bench anyway.

True Blue LA: Eric Stephen looks at the available free agent starting pitchers and concludes that it’s Zack Greinke or bust.

When it comes down to it, if the Dodgers are hellbent on adding a starting pitcher they should only add a difference-maker. Dempster is a fall back, while Sanchez (money) and Kuroda (draft pick, age) seem overly expensive and not without significant risk. That leaves Greinke, the pitcher with the best track record and highest ceiling among available options.

Greinke or bust.

I think he’s right, but only assuming that Anibal Sanchez actually gets anywhere close to what he’s asking, and I don’t necessarily buy that. I mean just the other day Jeremy Guthrie was allegedly asking for around $12 million annually.

Feelin’ Kinda Blue: Dustin Nosler says that after pairing age risk and the cost of losing a draft pick, bringing Hiroki Kuroda back is too much to give up.

I get it. Kuroda is a quality pitcher, something the Dodgers could use in the rotation. But he’s not a young guy and having to give up the draft pick is the only reason I don’t want to see the Dodgers bring him back,

This rings especially true if the Dodgers plan to trade away even more players from their dwindling farm system, because then constantly hitting on and having first-round picks is crucial.

Mike Scioscia’s Tragic Illness: Mike Petriello has a nice summary of everything regarding Hyun Jin Ryu.

The reason I’m skeptical about throwing money at him is because reports seem to have him sitting in the 88-91 range with only his change-up grading as a plus pitch.

While I defended Hiroki Kuroda‘s choice to sign with the New York Yankees even if it was simply a financial decision (much like Jon Weisman and Mike Petriello did), his detractors look even stupider today after it was revealed that he wasn’t even given an offer by the Los Angeles Dodgers.

Hiroki Kuroda confirmed what Dodgers General Manager Ned Colletti said earlier this month: Colletti remained in contact with his agent until he decided to sign with the New York Yankees three weeks ago.

Kuroda said the Dodgers were exploring ways they could fit him onto their roster, even though they had already signed free-agent starters Aaron Harang and Chris Capuano.

“They were unable to ever make a formal offer,” Kuroda said in Japanese. “I couldn’t wait any longer.”

The Japanese right-hander took a one-year $10-million contract with the Yankees that included a full no-trade clause. The deal was officially announced this week.

Yeah, sorta stupid to argue about loyalty when the team didn’t even give him a chance to make that an issue.

So is he still a “worthless piece of crap”?

I hope that Hiroki Kuroda signs with the Colorado Rockies, mostly because he is a worthless piece of crap who has the brains of a snail. Other than that, I think he’s a wonderful idiot! Hiroki loved the Dodgers so much that he refused a traded to a team (BoSox) where he might have won a World Series (and cost the Dodgers a really nice pick) because he only wanted to play major league baseball for his beloved Dodgers. Now, since the Dodgers have signed Chris Capuano, and he sees that he is not in the Dodgers plans (he said he wasn’t sure he wanted to play in America in 2012), he now wants to be a HO and sign with whoever pays him.

Screw you Hiroki, you worthless piece of crap. You swine. You vulgar little maggot. You worthless bag of filth. As they say in Texas, you couldn’t pour water out of a boot with instructions printed on the heel. You are a canker, an open wound. I would rather kiss a lawyer than be seen with you. You took your last vacation in the Islets of Langerhans.

You’re a putrescent mass, a walking vomit. You are a spineless little worm deserving nothing but the profoundest contempt. You are a jerk, a cad, and a weasel. I take that back; you are a festering pustule on a weasel’s rump. Your life is a monument to stupidity. You are a stench, a revulsion, a big suck on a sour lemon.

I will never get over the embarrassment of belonging to the same species as you. You are a monster, an ogre, a malformity. I barf at the very thought of you. You have all the appeal of a paper cut. Lepers avoid you. You are vile, worthless, less than nothing. You are a weed, a fungus, the dregs of this earth. You are a technicolor yawn. And did I mention that you smell?

You are a squeaking rat, a mistake of nature and a heavy-metal bagpipe player. You were not born. You were hatched into an unwilling world that rejects the likes of you. You didn’t crawl out of a normal egg, either, but rather a mutant maggot egg rejected by an evil scientistas being below his low standards. Your alleged parents abandoned you at birth and then died of shame in recognition of what they had done to an unsuspecting world. They were a bit late, and we are weary of your ilk.

Not linking to where I got that, but I’m sure you know where it’s from.

MSTI: Mike Petriello asks how good Matt Kemp‘s contract looks in light of other long term deals. Pretty awesome, I’d say.

Grantland: Bill James goes through the best pitcher duels of 2011 and the Dodgers land on the list 10 times.

3. July 20, 2011, Dodgers at San Francisco, Clayton Kershaw against Tim Lincecum

5. September 9, 2011, Dodgers in San Francisco again, Kershaw and Lincecum rematch

23. June 26, Angels at Dodger Stadium, Jered Weaver against Clayton Kershaw

31. August 2, Dodgers in San Diego, Mat Latos against Hiroki Kuroda

32. March 31 (season opener), San Francisco in Los Angeles, Lincecum against Kershaw

35. June 8, Dodgers in Philadelphia, Hiroki Kuroda against Cole Hamels

36. July 9, Dodgers in San Diego, Rubby de la Rosa against Aaron Harang

42. June 19, Houston in L.A., Bud Norris against Hiroki Kuroda

60. September 14, Arizona in L.A., Daniel Hudson against Clayton Kershaw

82. July 8, San Diego in Los Angeles, Mat Latos against Chad Billingsley

No surprise to see Clayton Kershaw there five times. Hiroki Kuroda being there three times goes to show how effective he was and how the team gave him no support. Interesting cameos by both Rubby De La Rosa and Chad Billingsley in games that I didn’t remember.

Minor League Ball: John Sickels has the Dodgers farm system ranked in the bottom third.

22) Los Angeles Dodgers: Some intriguing pitching depth, much of it fairly close to the majors, but not much hitting.

Not sure if I agree or not yet, but my instinct is to concur.

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ESPN: Jayson Stark relays the thoughts of one executive who thinks the Dodgers are going to be huge spenders next off-season.

As Buster Olney has mentioned recently, if Hamels does reach free agency, the Dodgers will be perfectly positioned to make it worth his while. It’s amazing, in fact, how much other teams fear the Dodgers’ potential spending power once their new owner is in place. Remember, L.A. has only TWO players on the roster signed beyond 2013 — Matt Kemp and Chad Billingsley.

“Next year this time,” said an exec of one team, “the Dodgers will be THE team calling up every marquee free agent. They’re going to have serious money. They’ll be the Yankees West. They can just look at that free-agent list and cherry-pick whoever they want. And why would anyone not want to go there? They’ll be the sleeping giant in free agency next year.”

Makes sense.

ESPN: Andre Ethier doesn’t understand why the Dodgers can’t be signing Prince Fielder.

The ownership limbo seemingly affected the Dodgers’ ability to deal in free agency this offseason, with general manager Ned Colletti saying earlier this month the team was essentially done with its offseason acquisitions because “we’re at our payroll.” So when news broke Tuesday of the Detroit Tigers nearing a deal with marquee free agent Prince Fielder, it wasn’t lost on Ethier.

“Why can’t the Dodgers be doing that? Look at the markets those two teams are, and the stability you see through the front office and the team being able to operate … on the level it should be,” he said, adding, “you don’t try to think of it too much as a player, but obviously if you’re not going after the big fish like other teams are, like our partners are down there to the south of us, the Angels [who acquired Albert Pujols], it’s tough to go out there and keep competing year after year if you’re not going out there and making your team better every year. “I think that’s the situation we’ve been in. Obviously it’s going to get better from here on out because of the sell and getting new people in there.”

Oops.

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Dodgers Now: Patrick Soon Shiong, the richest man in Los Angeles, will not bid on the Dodgers, but may join a bid.

The richest man in Los Angeles has not bid for the Dodgers.

However, Dr. Patrick Soon-Shiong could join the Dodgers sweepstakes soon — not by bidding on his own, but by joining one of the groups already in the running to buy the team. Soon-Shiong has met with several prospective bidders, and he had dinner recently with outgoing Dodgers owner Frank McCourt.

If he links up with the Magic Johnson group, this could get good.

CBS Sports: Jon Heyman said on Twitter that Steven Cohen is the biggest threat to win the Dodgers. Ugh.

I recapped all the Dodgers bidders here, so go find out why I don’t want him.

Is this real life?

I honestly didn’t know this was a thing outside of a few Twitter re-tweets from Tony Jackson of ESPN Los Angeles.

As usual, Jon Weisman from Dodger Thoughts was on point talking about Los Angeles Dodgers fans criticizing Hiroki Kuroda for his decision to sign with the New York Yankees.

This is a pretty bizarre loyalty test, where you’re required to make a sacrifice for a team that, the minute you make the sacrifice, is no longer your team. I don’t know where the idea that he owed the Dodgers something comes from.

Trading Kuroda for prospects would have helped the Dodgers. So would Kuroda and all his teammates playing for free. It doesn’t mean they’re lesser people for choosing not to do so. It doesn’t mean that Kuroda didn’t have valid reasons for staying.

Those of you who are employed – would you accept a sudden and immediate transfer to a completely different company, across the country, even when you didn’t want to go, only because it would help the company you were previously working for?

Even putting that aside though, the odd part about any criticism directed towards him is that Kuroda didn’t do anything particularly disloyal.

And this is coming from a guy who wanted him to go at the trade deadline so the Dodgers could get prospects.

By all accounts, he seemed to have wanted to remain a Dodger, but Ned Colletti opted for a gaggle of two-year contracts for average veterans instead, thus leaving no room for Kuroda in the budget. At that point, it wasn’t so much about loyalty anymore, it became a question of whether Kuroda was willing to take 5-6 million less (or if he even had a real offer from the Dodgers at all) to play for a mess of an organization on a team that probably wouldn’t contend with a GM that already clearly choose other players over him.

At that point, staying with the Dodgers was not only completely irrational, but borderline insulting as well.

Hard to expect a professional athlete to tolerate all of that when you or me wouldn’t.

The Los Angeles Dodgers have signed right-handed starting pitcher Aaron Harang to a 2 year deal worth $12 million, according to Jon Heyman of Sports Illustrated. The deal is assumed to be back loaded, but there’s no confirmation on that yet.

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Once upon a time, Harang was a consistent workhorse type of pitcher for the Reds, posting three consecutive seasons with an ERA- below 90 from 2005 to 2007 (3.83/3.76/3.73). From 2008 to 2010 though, things weren’t as pretty, and his Reds career ended with him posting an ERA- of 130 (5.32).

Like a lot of pitchers try to do, he headed to the Padres to ramp up his value, and Petco Park certainly seemed to do the trick, as he posted a career best 3.63 ERA. However, his ERA- was just 105 and his peripheral skills weren’t all that different from 2010 (16.3/17.3 K% & 7.5/8.1 BB%).

As such, the 2012 Dodgers are basically getting a 2010 Aaron Harang salvage title car with minor body work done in 2011 to make it look like a 2005-2007 generation but an engine that’s still as questionable as the 2008-2010 version.

Yearly Salary Estimated

Assuming he’s even able to stay healthy, which hasn’t exactly been a given since 2007, his skills indicate that he’s about a 4.20 ERA type of pitcher in Dodger Stadium, which is basically like a right-handed version of Ted Lilly.

I gave him 175 innings pitched, which came out to around 12 runs above replacement. Given that he’s going into his age 34 season in 2012, I regressed him a bit as well.

—–

I’m not going over this again and again, but I’m just gonna say that with all this money they’ve spent over the off-season, the Dodgers probably could have signed Hiroki Kuroda, Chris Capuano, and Mark Ellis if they just resisted the temptation to give away money to Harang, Juan Rivera, Matt Treanor, Adam Kennedy, and Jerry Hairston Jr..

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Update
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The Dodgers officially announced the Harang signing on Thursday, and with it came the contract specifics.

Harang will receive $3 million in 2012 and $7 million in 2013. In ’14, there is an option with a $2 million buyout. The option for 2014 will vest between $7 million and $8 million if he eats up at least 360 innings over the two years and at least 175 innings in ’13.

Since the terms are now known, I figured I should update my chart.

For the most part, it’s still the same deal, but it’s deferred even more than I predicted.

While many aren’t happy about the vesting option, I would argue that it’s actually not worse than the buyout. In order for Harang to vest, he has to be healthy, therefore I staved off a WAR decline in 2014, making the option year almost Surplus Value neutral.

The Los Angeles Dodgers recently announced the signing of left-handed starting pitcher Chris Capuano to a two-year deal worth 10 million dollars.

As for the specifics, Capuano will make $3 million in 2012 and $6 million in 2013, and he’ll have a $8 million mutual option in 2014 with a $1 million buyout.

—–

In 2011, Capuano posted a 4.55 ERA and a 4.04 FIP in 186 innings to go along with a 21.0 K% and 6.6 BB%. 2011 represented Capuano’s return to full-time duty, as he missed all of 2008 and 2009 due to tearing his labrum at the end of 2007 and tearing his ulnar collateral ligament at the start of 2008.

I started him off assuming an ERA of around 4.25 with 170 innings pitched, and since he’ll be 33 in 2011 with a history of injury, began to regress him from there.

—–

Previously, when I took a cursory look at the Dodgers interest in him, I came away rather impressed, saying that he’s somebody worth looking at. However, a deeper look at this deal does reveal certain problems.

Capuano’s injury history can’t be ignored, as having significant shoulder and elbow surgeries is a gigantic red flag for any team, and given that 2011 was his first time throwing over 150 innings since 2006, it’s hard to rationalize penciling Capuano in as a fifth starter innings eater type. Additionally, he averaged less than six innings a start, running out of gas the second and third time through the order, so there’s no bullpen saving quality either.

I still don’t have a problem with the first year of the deal though, as it’s certainly worth taking a shot at a risky pitcher with solid peripherals like Capuano for 1 year at $4-5 million. As a fly ball pitcher (~40%), you figure that he should find Dodger Stadium to his welcoming, and if he stays healthy, it could end up being a bargain. However, guaranteeing the second year is what’s confusing given his age, obvious injury risk, and question marks about performance.

—–

Overall, Capuano is hard to put a number on precisely because there’s such a large variation between his potential upside (~2.5 WAR/~200 IP) and his historical downside (~0.0 WAR/~0 IP). In vacuum, he should be mediocre to solid like Ted Lilly has been, but like with Lilly, you have to wonder if Capuano’s signing is the best use of money.

Given what the Dodgers sacrificed (Hiroki Kuroda) to sign Capuano and a bunch of replacement level filler, I find it hard to like this deal. Granted, Capuano himself is probably the least offensive part of the Dodgers off-season moves, but his contract in the context of everything else that surrounds it is certainly puzzling.

Jack Wilson: His OPS is on a four year decline, checking in with a .559 OPS in 2011. For that matter, both his AVG and OBP are on a four year decline as well, and his SLG is on a two year tumble. Needless to say, he isn’t a light hitter in the same way Jamey Carroll (solid but no power) is. No, Jack Wilson is just a terrible hitter.

His redeeming quality is supposed to be his defense, but even that has fallen off. It has gone from 27 runs in 2009 to 8 runs in 2010 to 6 runs in 2011, according to DRS. His UZR mimics that fall, showing 15.1 runs, -0.5 runs, and 1.4 runs, with FRAA painting the same picture at 2.8, 4.4, and 0.5. Even within those numbers, most of his positive defensive value is now at second base, not shortstop.

Either way, there’s not enough defense anymore to make up for his cringe worthy bat. I’m not sure what the point would be of even making him a utility guy, given that he might not be better than replacement level.

—–

Jerry Hairston: Probably not going to impress anybody with OPS numbers of .710, .652, and .727 over the last three seasons, but he does at least have about a league average walk rate, so there’s hope for usefulness.

His value though is in his versatility, posting average defense at 2B/3B/SS/CF while being above average in LF. You could do a ton worse than him as a utility guy and I think he’s actually an ideal piece to a well rounded bench.

—–

Hiroki Kuroda: Everybody knows that he has been well worth the money and that’s he’s a solid #2/#3 type of pitcher, so I’m not even going to waste my breath on that.

However, despite what is commonly bandied about, his status with the Dodgers is no longer just about his willingness to play another season in America. With Ned Colletti claiming that the 2012 payroll will be lower than the 2011 number, there simply might not be enough budget for Hiroki Kuroda to come back unless he takes a pay cut from what was already a hometown discount.

I’m not sure he’s willing to do that, and I certainly don’t blame him, as he’s coming off arguably his best year in 2011 and the Dodgers will need him to take a significant reduction in salary to get a deal done. I guess we’re about to see how much he loves Los Angeles.

—–

Aaron Harang: The 3.64 ERA and 4.17 FIP in 2011 with the Padres is generally misleading because of the park he was pitching in, as even his comeback year was decidedly mediocre with an ERA- of 105 and an FIP- of 119. I suppose it would be worth taking a flier on him as a fifth starter, but I wouldn’t just assume he’s back and ready to be a sub-4.00 ERA innings eater.

—–

Chris Capuano: His 4.55 2011 ERA isn’t pretty, but his 21.0 K% and 6.6 BB% show he has underlying skills. Not surprisingly, he has posted four consecutive seasons of xFIP- better than league average and hovers around average in FIP-. Furthermore, both his SIERA and tERA are on two year declines, perhaps showing that the contact he’s inducing is of better quality as well.

As a fly ball pitcher (~40%), he should find Dodger Stadium to his welcoming, and if the Dodgers can get a reasonable price for him, he’s certainly worth pursuing.

—–

Jeff Francis: Despite poor ERA numbers, he has always had a solid skill set that was masked by his pitching environment at Coors Field. Assuming he’s healthy again, he could be a potential bargain for somebody.

While his 4.82 ERA last year was ugly, he had a 4.10 FIP and 4.29 xFIP, so there’s about a league average pitcher in there already. Better yet, there’s upside here in the sense that if he can find his strikeout ways again (~15% to ~11%), there’s considerable promise for a middle of the rotation type pitcher for back of the rotation money.

I was about to take a nap today when I saw that MLB Trade Rumors had picked Jason Kubel to sign with the Dodgers. I made my way to FanGraphs to see if I could make a post basically laughing at Ned Colletti repeating his past mistakes of bringing in a veteran outfielder to block a talented youngster.

On my way there though, I saw two articles on FanGraphs about Yu Darvish and decided to click-through to see what they thought, because I love to get their take on things.

Well in an article called “Darvish Is Not Daisuke” by Eno Sarris, I was amused at the first justification for why they aren’t comparable.

The first difference might seem irrelevant at first: Darvish is not only Japanese — he’s also half Iranian. The reason this is relevant is not that Iranian people are better at baseball. The point is that Darvish would be the tallest pitcher to make the jump from Nippon Professional Baseball to Major League Baseball. At 6-foot-5, he’s five inches taller than Matsuzaka. The average Iranian male is 5-foot-8.6 and the average Japanese male is 5-foot-7.8 (American males are 5-foot-9.2 on average), so it might have taken a little genetic help to produce a Japanese pitcher this tall. Darvish is also 220 pounds, but could have the frame to add more. He added 20 pounds this year.

Regardless of how it was intended, the passage absolutely reads as if it were meant to say, “Good thing Yu Darvish is mixed so he can be tall and throw hard unlike the rest of the Japanese pitchers because LOL AZNS ARE SHORT LOL“.

Honestly, I wasn’t offended by this or anything, but I just found it hilarious how nonchalantly ethnic/racial genetic differences were thrown into the mix as if it were legitimate and relevant analysis.

I generally don’t use this site to complain about stereotypes or racism, because I honestly can’t be fucked enough to care, but I do enjoy calling it out when I see it. Hell, if for no other reason than because it entertains me to no end.

Overall, I’m used to this type of shit as it happens so commonly with Asians and Asian Americans because nobody honestly gives a shit about offending us, but it did give me pause and ended up turning my face into this:

Regardless, it’s quite the interesting direction for FanGraphs to go, and I anxiously await future articles analyzing Asian baseball players. I would like to start:

“Daisuke Matsuzaka’s inability to control the strike zone doomed him in America, as his slanted eyes prevented him from seeing the strike zone with the same clarity as pitchers of other races. I’m not saying it matters FOR SURE, but it’s unfortunate that he lost the genetic lottery by being born Japanese, or he might have been born with bigger eyes and have better control. Genetically speaking. Genetics.”

Feel free to contribute examples of your own, as I’m sure there are many ways to analyze players using ethnic and racial genetic differences.

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All jokes aside, what does the passage even statistically tell you?

The average Iranian male is 0.8 inches taller than the average Japanese male (assuming that’s true), so Yu Darvish being mixed Iranian-Japanese probably affected his chances of being a 6’5″ outlier enough to make it a lead point on why he’s not similar to Daisuke Matsuzaka?

Commenters on the article are predictably defending the passage and are saying that the critics are missing the point, but isn’t the article itself hilariously missing the point when the passage serves absolutely no purpose since it provides no evidence that has any statistical value whatsoever?

Like I understand if it was proven that Iranians have a statistically significant amount of people who are taller than 6’4″ when compared with the Japanese, but I struggle to see a point in mentioning an average difference of less than an inch.

—

All I’m saying is that if the article had stated Hiroki Kuroda was more likely than Rubby De La Rosa to stay out of trouble off the field and succeed in pressure situations because Japanese score higher on IQ tests than Dominicans, I doubt it gets pushed.

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Kei Igawa Portrait

Clayton Kershaw

Was there anyone else to begin this review with? Just 23-years-old and consistently underrated and overlooked by the mainstream media entering 2011, Clayton Kershaw silenced all of his remaining critics with one of the best seasons for a pitcher in recent memory, Dodger or otherwise.

Consistent from start to finish, Clayton improved in every respect from his fantastic 2010. First and foremost, he cut a walk and a half off of his 2010 mark, and has seen a three-year improvement in that area of his game (4.79/3.57/2.08 BB per nine). He set career highs in tERA (2.52), FIP (2.47), and SIERA (2.81); induced more ground balls than last season (40.1%/43.2%), while giving up less fly balls (42.1%/38.6%); and continued to master the craft of creating weak contact. With his already amazing ability to get hitters to swing and miss, Kershaw also generated more infield popups, in 13.3% of his opponents’ plate appearances to be exact. An infield popup serves the same purpose as a strikeout, as no runner who may be on-base will advance, and it does in fact speak to his skill at creating weak contact, a point that can’t be emphasized enough.

Kershaw, who has seen a four-year incline in his WAR (1.4/4.1/4.7/6.8), struck out 9.57 per nine innings pitched, and combined with his limiting of free passes, saw his K/BB ratio leap up to over four and a half and his WHIP reach a new low of 0.977. Keeping hitters off-balance with a four pitch repertoire that features a fastball, slider, change, and Public Enemy Number One, Clayton is in line to finish first or second in the Cy Young voting.

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Considering that he’s young, has had tremendous success already, and captured the pitching Triple Crown in 2011 (two of which are meaningless categories, though that of course does not diminish his dominance this season), he’ll be in line for a lengthy raise as he hits arbitration for the first time.

With the season he just had, proving conclusively that he could control his walks and be a workhorse at the same time, as he made 33 starts and surpassed the 200 IP mark for the second consecutive season, the Dodgers would be wise to sign him long-term. They would have been wise to do that prior to this campaign, of course, but better late than never.

Chad Billingsley

Chad Billingsley entered 2011 on the heels of his best season as a pro, one in which he posted a career best 3.18 tERA and a FIP of 3.08, another professional low for the righty. He had washed away the complaints of many that he lacked the intestinal fortitude and mental stability to pitch successfully, deep into games, and in high-pressure situations (though, of course, we know that those claims never carried any water to begin with). His performance earned him a new multi-year, big money contract, and the Dodgers entered the season with one of the premier one-two punches on the mound in either league.

Unfortunately for Chad and the Dodgers, 2011 proved to not be another step forward for Chad. His numbers fell across the board, as he missed fewer bats, allowed more free passes, and saw his home run rate nearly double as his BABIP remained steady with his 2010 mark. While there were undoubtedly games where he was singled to death, as it was put by one Dodger blogger, Bills simply did not perform as well as he is clearly capable of. His tERA, FIP, and SIERA all increased from their 2010 resting places (4.18, 3.83, and 4.26 in 2011, respectively), but most troubling of all were his strikeout and walk ratios. He whiffed a full season low 7.28 opposing batters per nine while walking a full season high of over four per nine.

Bills struggles resulted in a WAR cut in half from the previous year (2.1, down from 4.5) and questions about his mechanics and health. Still shy of his 28th birthday, Billingsley has every chance to rebound, and much like his poor second half of 2009 led to his best professional season, said rebound in 2012 would not be the least surprising to me. In fact, I’ll call it right now, as I fully expect Chad to be productive as Kershaw’s running mate next season, provided he is in fact healthy.

Hiroki Kuroda

Hiroki Kuroda, in perhaps his final season as a Dodger, was once again solid, though he followed Billingsley in having a down year from 2010. His WAR fell from 4.1 to 2.4, his K/9 IP dipped down to 7.17, and he allowed a whopping 24 long balls in over 200 IP.

Again though, at the progressing age of 36 and as a third starter, Hiroki was not the issue. His 4.22 tERA left much to be desired, but his FIP was 3.78 and his SIERA checked in at 3.66, and as always, his control was impeccable (2.18 BB per nine, and a K/BB ratio of over three and a quarter). 13.1% of plate appearances ended in an infield popup, though he induced far fewer ground balls than in 2010 (51.1%/43.2%).

Should this in fact be his last season in Los Angeles, Kuroda departs with a career FIP of 3.55, over three strikeouts for every walk issued, and 12.2 WAR over four seasons. All in all, a very good big league career for the Japanese import, and Kuroda’s consistency will be missed.

Ted Lilly

After coming over from Chicago at the deadline in 2010, Ted Lilly was signed to a ridiculous three year, $33 million dollar deal by Ned Colletti to be a fourth starter. And quite predictably, he flopped in a major way for most of the season. Competing with Matt Kemp to be the second Dodger to go 30/30 in 2011, Lilly couldn’t help himself in allowing home runs and stolen bases at a seemingly record pace. The lefty threw just under 200 innings and allowed 28 home runs and 35 stolen bases, with 4.24 tERA and a FIP of 4.21.

The 35-year-old did end strong, holding opponents to a .169/.250/.293/.543 line over the final two months of the season (though it should be noted he benefited immensely from a .208 BABIP).

Dodger fans have to hope and pray he can be half the man he was from August on, as he still has two years and $22.5 million remaining on his contract, will most likely be the third starter in 2012, and has a full no-trade clause for this upcoming campaign.

Rubby De La Rosa/Nathan Eovaldi

Rubby De La Rosa made his major league debut on May 24th, and would throw 60 and two-thirds innings over 10 starts and three relief appearances before succumbing to Tommy John surgery. The young righty was impressive in his limited exposure, whiffing 60 against 31 walks and displaying a nice collection of four pitches. Out for anywhere from 10 months to over a year, the Dodgers will be without his electric arm as he works his way back to the starting rotation.

With some major league experience and success, excellent swing and miss ability, and a strong minor league track record, if he rebounds from the arm injury, the Dodgers have a potential gem and fixture in the rotation for years to come, as he held opponents to a .225/.306/.364/.670 line with 33 Ks in 35 IP over his final six trips to the hill.

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Nathan Eovaldi replaced De La Rosa in the rotation before being moved to the pen as the season wound down and he reached his innings cap. Eovaldi posted a 4.35 FIP, but struck out just under six per nine while walking just over five per nine. Whether he settles into the rotation or the pen, Nate will need to refine his control and bump his strikeout numbers back up to what they were at a handful of minor league stops, including an 8.65 mark in AA prior to his call-up.

Minor League Strength

The starting rotation is a definite organizational strength for the Blue Crew. Along with young arms we’ve seen, like De La Rosa and Eovaldi, the Dodgers also boast minor league stud Zach Lee, as well as Garrett Gould, Allen Webster, Ralston Cash, 2011 draftee Chris Reed, and even the consistently frustrating Chris Withrow.

The Dodgers have shown the ability to draft and develop starters in abundance, an excellent quality and a testament to the work of Logan White, De Jon Watson, and their respective staffs.

Credit: The LFP

Glad the Dodgers participated in the “It Gets Better” campaign.

Wish they would make that promise to Dodgers fans in 2012 too.

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Vin Scully Is My Homeboy: Rookie hazing pictures are always awesome for future chops.

Mike Scioscia’s Tragic Illness: Mike Petriello thinks Don Mattingly has done well this season. Agreed.

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MLB: Will Hiroki Kuroda stay or go? Even he doesn’t know.

MLB: Russ Mitchell will need wrist surgery, but he should be back in the winter.

Credit: The LFP

MLB: Dodgers don’t think Clayton Kershaw will be suspended.

MLB: Hiroki Kuroda had an MRI on his neck that didn’t reveal any damage. Didn’t know he was still having trouble with it.

MLB: Shawn Tolleson and Scott Van Slyke were named the Dodgers Branch Rickey Minor League Pitcher and Player Of The Year. I’ll be profiling both of them in the off-season.

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MLB Trade Rumors: Ben Nicholson-Smith interviews Dodgers Assistant General Manager and Director Of Player Development, De Jon Watson.

Los Angeles Times: Dylan Hernandez on Jonathan Broxton and his future.

Abbott said Broxton is particularly bothered by rumblings that he might not be hurt.

Who the hell said that? I’m confused.

Baseball America: Jim Callis ranks the 2006 Dodgers draft class 3rd and wonders how good it would have been if the Dodgers actually signed Alex White and Paul Goldschmidt. So do I, so do I.

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The Atlantic: An outstanding article on college sports by Taylor Branch. It’s long and it’s worth it.