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	<title>Chad Moriyama &#187; Garret Anderson</title>
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	<description>Dodgers, Sabermetrics, Scouting</description>
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		<title>Dodgers Sign Bobby Abreu: At Least He&#8217;s Better Than Adam Kennedy &#8230; Right?</title>
		<link>http://www.chadmoriyama.com/2012/05/dodgers-sign-bobby-abreu-at-least-hes-better-than-adam-kennedy-right/</link>
		<comments>http://www.chadmoriyama.com/2012/05/dodgers-sign-bobby-abreu-at-least-hes-better-than-adam-kennedy-right/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 04 May 2012 16:04:34 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Chad Moriyama</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Analysis]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Transactions]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Adam Kennedy]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Anaheim Angels]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Angels]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Bill Shaikin]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Bobby Abreu]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Eugenio Velez]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Garret Anderson]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Jerry Hairston Jr.]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Jon Heyman]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Juan Rivera]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Justin Sellers]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Los Angeles Dodgers]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Mark Loretta]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Mark Sweeney]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.chadmoriyama.com/?p=6199</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[According to Jon Heyman of CBS Sports, the Dodgers have signed Bobby Abreu, formerly of the Angels. In a corresponding move, the team has demoted utility infielder Justin Sellers to the minors and will probably use Jerry Hairston Jr. at shortstop. The Angels will be paying Abreu&#8217;s 2012 salary, and speculation is that the Dodgers ...]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><img src="http://www.chadmoriyama.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/05/BobbyAbreu-575x386.jpg" alt="" title="BobbyAbreu" width="575" height="386" class="aligncenter size-large wp-image-6201" /></p>
<p><a href="https://twitter.com/#!/JonHeymanCBS/statuses/198405467289038849" target="_blank">According</a> to <strong>Jon Heyman</strong> of <strong>CBS Sports</strong>, the <strong>Dodgers</strong> have signed <strong>Bobby Abreu</strong>, formerly of the <strong>Angels</strong>. In a corresponding move, the team has <a href="https://twitter.com/#!/dylanohernandez/statuses/198435951394041860" target="_blank">demoted</a> utility infielder <strong>Justin Sellers</strong> to the minors and will probably use <strong>Jerry Hairston Jr.</strong> at shortstop.</p>
<p>The Angels will be paying Abreu&#8217;s 2012 salary, and <a href="http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2012/05/dodgers-bobby-abreu-agree-to-deal.html" target="_blank">speculation</a> is that the Dodgers will be paying Abreu a prorated league minimum salary.</p>
<blockquote><p>The Angels released Abreu one week ago and will be on the hook for the remainder of his $9MM salary.  Abreu&#8217;s new deal could be for as little as the pro-rated portion of the MLB minimum.</p></blockquote>
<p>So at the very least, he probably won&#8217;t be expensive.</p>
<p>&#8212;&#8211;</p>
<p>My initial thought? Wow, wonderful. Any time you get the chance to platoon <strong>Juan Rivera</strong> and Abreu in what should be an elite offensive position in left field, you&#8217;ve absolutely got to do it.</p>
<p>With that said, it doesn&#8217;t seem like it will be much of a platoon, at least if <strong>Bill Shaikin</strong> is correct.</p>
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p>Abreu would not fit with <a href="https://twitter.com/search/%2523Dodgers">#Dodgers</a> or any other NL team except as a PH. He can&#8217;t play defense regularly any more.</p>
<p>&mdash; Bill Shaikin (@BillShaikin) <a href="https://twitter.com/BillShaikin/status/196071166111260673" data-datetime="2012-04-28T02:59:43+00:00">April 28, 2012</a></p></blockquote>
<p><script src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script></p>
<p>Seems he&#8217;ll see limited action in left field and be the primary bat off the bench.</p>
<p>&#8212;&#8211;</p>
<p>Now the main question on the minds of fans is why wasn&#8217;t <strong>Adam Kennedy</strong> released instead of having Sellers sent down. Well, the sad reality is that Abreu might not be much better than Kennedy.</p>
<p>Kennedy projects to hit .252/.305/.358/.663 the rest of the season, according to ZiPS. Once a plus defender at second base, Kennedy has now been reduced to playing fringe defense at first base, second base, and third base.</p>
<p>Abreu? Well, he&#8217;s on a four-year OPS decline (.843/.825/.787/.717), and ZiPS projects him to hit .243/.333/.382/.716 the rest of the way. Better with the bat, but not a gigantic gap between the two. Defensively, Abreu has been worth -76.3 runs according to UZR and -47 runs according to DRS over his career, coming out to around -8.4 runs UZR per 150 games and -5.2 runs DRS per 150 games. In simpler terms, he&#8217;s a shitty defensive player.</p>
<p>If I give Abreu ~100 PA for the remainder of 2012, he comes out to being worth ~1.3 runs with the bat, ~3.3 runs replacement level, ~-0.8 runs position adjustment, ~-0.8 runs on the bases, and ~-1.1 runs defensively. A total of ~1.9 runs or ~0.2 WAR.</p>
<p>At this stage in his career, he&#8217;s basically a well below average player whose only redeeming quality left is being able to take a walk more often than most.</p>
<p>&#8212;&#8211;</p>
<p>So basically, Kennedy can&#8217;t hit, but has defensive versatility and is competent with the glove. Abreu is a better hitter, but not by as much as you&#8217;d think, and he&#8217;s terrible with the glove.</p>
<p>Given that Kennedy&#8217;s current role is essentially that of a pinch hitter, I would think/hope Abreu is more valuable to the Dodgers. However, if they start to play Abreu in the outfield against every righty, it could get ugly, not so much at the plate, but for the Dodgers pitching staff.</p>
<p>&#8212;&#8211;</p>
<p>Kennedy is bad and he deserves all the criticism thrown his way, but the reality is that, depending on the role, Abreu might be even worse.</p>
<p>It all leaves me to wonder why the Dodgers can&#8217;t ever do better on the bench (<strong>Mark Sweeney</strong>/<strong>Garret Anderson</strong>/<strong>Mark Loretta</strong>/<strong>Eugenio Velez</strong>), because while Kennedy hasn&#8217;t been the answer, I don&#8217;t think Abreu is the thump off the bench the team is looking for either.</p>
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		<title>Los Angeles Dodgers Spring Training Notes: 9 Players Cut + Josh Fields Going To Make The Team</title>
		<link>http://www.chadmoriyama.com/2012/03/los-angeles-dodgers-spring-training-notes-9-players-cut-josh-fields-going-to-make-the-team/</link>
		<comments>http://www.chadmoriyama.com/2012/03/los-angeles-dodgers-spring-training-notes-9-players-cut-josh-fields-going-to-make-the-team/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 16 Mar 2012 10:56:34 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Chad Moriyama</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Daily News]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[SOSEFD]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Alex Castellanos]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Alfredo Silverio]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Chris Withrow]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Garret Anderson]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Jerry Sands]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Josh Fields]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Josh Wall]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Justin Sellers]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Los Angeles Dodgers]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Michael Antonini]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Olmedo Saenz]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Russ Mitchell]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Scott Van Slyke]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Shane Lindsay]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Spring Training]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Stephen Fife]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.chadmoriyama.com/?p=4694</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[The Los Angeles Dodgers made their first cuts of Spring Training today (pretty sure it&#8217;s the first), as the team sent down nine players. Chris Withrow, Scott Van Slyke, Alex Castellanos, John Wall, Stephen Fife, Michael Antonini, and Alfredo Silverio were optioned to minor league camp, while Russ Mitchell and Shane Lindsay, both non-roster invitees ...]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The <strong>Los Angeles Dodgers</strong> <a href="http://www.truebluela.com/2012/3/15/2874303/dodgers-first-cuts-spring-alex-castellanos-chris-withrow" target="_blank">made their first cuts of</a> <strong>Spring Training</strong> today (pretty sure it&#8217;s the first), as the team sent down nine players.</p>
<blockquote><p>Chris Withrow, Scott Van Slyke, Alex Castellanos, John Wall, Stephen Fife, Michael Antonini, and Alfredo Silverio were optioned to minor league camp, while Russ Mitchell and Shane Lindsay, both non-roster invitees to camp, were reassigned to the minor league side.</p></blockquote>
<p>No surprises there.</p>
<p>However, one surprise is third baseman <strong>Josh Fields</strong>, who apparently <a href="http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20120315&#038;content_id=27301664" target="_blank">now has a good shot at making the roster</a>.</p>
<blockquote><p>Fields is Mitchell with a history of Major League success, a corner infielder who slugged 23 home runs as a rookie for the Chicago White Sox in 2007, only to have his career get sidetracked by knee and hip surgeries.</p>
<p>His road back to the Major Leagues hasn&#8217;t been an easy one and included a detour to Japan last summer. He&#8217;s in Dodgers camp on a Minor League contract, but he&#8217;s made enough of an early impression that he leaped past Mitchell as an insurance candidate at third base if Juan Uribe should fail again, and at first base behind James Loney. </p>
<p>Fields, Jerry Sands and Justin Sellers are probably fighting for the last roster spot, barring injury.</p></blockquote>
<p>If that&#8217;s true, then Fields is making the team, I think.</p>
<p>Now I&#8217;ve basically come to terms with the fact that the Dodgers won&#8217;t be keeping <strong>Jerry Sands</strong>, because &#8230; Dodgers. Plus, carrying <strong>Justin Sellers</strong> would mean taking eleventy trillion utility infielders on the roster, so I&#8217;m pretty sure Fields ends up as the odd man in.</p>
<p>While I guess that&#8217;s a nice story, let&#8217;s get one thing straight here: Fields has a career rWAR of -1.3 and a career fWAR of -0.1. To say the reason his career is currently on the brink is due to injuries is asinine because even in that breakout season he was worth 0.9 rWAR and 0.6 fWAR.</p>
<p>My point is that people should stop pretending like he has a ton of upside because it isn&#8217;t true, and he&#8217;s far more likely to end up as the 2010 <strong>Garret Anderson</strong> than 2006 <strong>Olmedo Saenz</strong>.</p>
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