So a couple days ago, I asked Eric Stephen of True Blue LA to ask Carl Crawford about his hitting mechanics, and he did so for me, primarily because he’s awesome.

Why, you ask? Because of my article for Baseball Prospectus back in October broaching that exact subject. Basically, I wanted to know if I was right so I could pat myself on the back.

:o

Anyway, he allowed me to publish the convo.

—–

Are you going back to your style and/or stance from 2010?

“I’m pretty much trying to get back to how I was doing things then.”

“When I got to Boston, my stance was more open. I’m trying to get back to being more square to the pitcher, and my batting stance isn’t as wide. Those are two of the little things I’m trying to focus on.”

On Going The Other Way

“Batting more square, more closed, instead of being more open. When I’m open the ball away looks far away, so I’m trying to get more square so everything looks closer to me.”

—–

I AM A GENIUS!

But seriously though, it’s positive that he’s trying to get back to his 2010 stance, because there’s a gigantic difference between his approach then and in 2011.

My hopes that he would carry on with his 2012 adjustment seems valid, as he appears to acknowledge that it’s something he could benefit from. Now all that’s left is to see whether he can stay healthy enough to implement it and whether or not he can stick to the plan.

—–

Amazingly, the evil dictator Mike Petriello picked up on Crawford’s comments and wrote about Crawford’s mechanics as well, though he picked up on one thing that I didn’t.

So what impact did the stance shenanigans have? Among other things, it made him unable to get to the outside pitch. Using the Baseball Prospectus heat maps, we can see that when Crawford was having his career year in 2010, with his stance slowly opening up, he was quite good at getting to pitches on the outside part of the plate. In 2011, fully open, he had absolutely no prayer. (And, it should be noted, even in September of 2010 he was beginning to have trouble getting to outside pitches.)

This is a cool finding because it expands on my point that he was struggling with hard stuff due to his timing errors. So now we have another specific thing to watch, which is his plate coverage.

In the end, a major-league player confirmed that I am an absolute genius…

…or maybe that he’s just trying to go back to the last time he was successful.

The Dodgers promoted a number of front office personnel, most notably future GMs (of the Dodgers, I hope) Logan White and De Jon Watson. White will now serve as Vice President Of Scouting, while Watson takes on the role of Vice President Of Player Development.

—–

Via Eric Stephen, Alfredo Silverio and Ozzie Martinez have signed minor-league contracts and received invites to Spring Training.

—–

Bill Shaikin reports, per Ned Colletti, that Yasiel Puig will most likely begin the 2013 campaign with AA Chattanooga.

—–

And now we wait for the moves of the Winter Meetings.

=====

Greg Zakwin is the founder of the site Plaschke Thy Sweater Is Argyle. Follow him on Twitter @ArgyledPlaschke.

True Blue LA: Eric Stephen looks at the available free agent starting pitchers and concludes that it’s Zack Greinke or bust.

When it comes down to it, if the Dodgers are hellbent on adding a starting pitcher they should only add a difference-maker. Dempster is a fall back, while Sanchez (money) and Kuroda (draft pick, age) seem overly expensive and not without significant risk. That leaves Greinke, the pitcher with the best track record and highest ceiling among available options.

Greinke or bust.

I think he’s right, but only assuming that Anibal Sanchez actually gets anywhere close to what he’s asking, and I don’t necessarily buy that. I mean just the other day Jeremy Guthrie was allegedly asking for around $12 million annually.

Feelin’ Kinda Blue: Dustin Nosler says that after pairing age risk and the cost of losing a draft pick, bringing Hiroki Kuroda back is too much to give up.

I get it. Kuroda is a quality pitcher, something the Dodgers could use in the rotation. But he’s not a young guy and having to give up the draft pick is the only reason I don’t want to see the Dodgers bring him back,

This rings especially true if the Dodgers plan to trade away even more players from their dwindling farm system, because then constantly hitting on and having first-round picks is crucial.

Mike Scioscia’s Tragic Illness: Mike Petriello has a nice summary of everything regarding Hyun Jin Ryu.

The reason I’m skeptical about throwing money at him is because reports seem to have him sitting in the 88-91 range with only his change-up grading as a plus pitch.

Clayton Kershaw pitched and labored through five innings with an injured left hip, but he managed to limit the Reds to a lone run. Adrian Gonzalez homered twice to emphatically break out of his slump, and he helped power the offense to a win. But perhaps the biggest surprise goes to Juan Uribe, who managed to … uh … get a hit.

Still, despite the team’s best efforts, their playoff chances actually dropped because both the Cardinals and the Brewers were victorious, thus keeping the Dodgers three games back of the final Wild Card spot with nine games to play. Their chances now sit in the 5-7 percent range, depending on what methodology you choose to employ.

—–

Given Kershaw’s performance, I suppose one could look at as if pitching him was the right decision since the team ended up winning, but ten baserunners, including five walks over five innings against the B-lineup of the Reds, didn’t exactly strike me as normal, nor did it really change the fact that the Dodgers playoff hopes are still slim. Honestly, it was just fortunate that the sequencing of his struggles weren’t different, and that the results somehow managed to remain positive.

Simply put, the risk wasn’t worth the reward no matter what happened, because as even Orel Hershiser noted on the ESPN broadcast (Via Eric Stephen), Kershaw indeed struggled with his mechanics:

“We’re watching Clayton Kershaw throw a lot of balls to the right-handed batters box, or away to Votto, or inside to righties. That right hip, as it gets a little fatigued, his upper body is going to take over and it’s going to over-rotate over that hip and he’s going to start pulling pitches like he is. It’s just that little less bracing that makes the upper body go too far and…instead of that arm speed being braced against that front leg and having some direction, there is less bracing on that front side. The arm and the upper body take over, and you happen to pull the ball to your glove side. So if he’s not putting as much weight on it or using as much strength in that front leg for direction, his mechanics will make him start pulling the ball to his glove side.”

As I’ve said on this issue before, I just didn’t see the upside in starting him. This wasn’t a playoff game, it wasn’t a tiebreaker game, and, heck, it wasn’t even a particularly important regular season game.

—–

In news that I enjoyed the most, A.J. Ellis snapped an 0-for-30 skid with a double in the ninth. The Dodgers dugout made light of his streak by asking for the ball.

Mike Scioscia’s Tragic Illness: Even though he’s away from home right now, I think Mike Petriello comes away from the trade with the right approach.

So how am I feeling about it today? I think Gonzalez is going to be an incredible fit in LA, especially considering that reports of his demise in Boston seem overblown (he was outstanding last year and has been very good for much of this year after a slow start) and that he never seemed to want to leave Southern California in the first place. It’s a high price to pay, but if he is what we think he is – and don’t forget, there was little available in the first base market next year, so if you’re spending money, this is how you do it – and the team becomes a consistent contender, I think it’ll be a price we can live with.

And if not? The next decade could get ugly, fast. For now, I’m cautiously optimistic, but mainly excited for the rest of the season.

I’m the same. Hopeful, but wary for reasons that I believe are legitimate. Far too many Dodgers fans pretending this is highway robbery in our favor, in my opinion.

Dodger Thoughts: Jon Weisman invokes Pedro Martinez for Delino DeShields.

The chances of De La Rosa becoming one of the greatest pitchers of all time might be slim, but De La Rosa doesn’t have to become the second Pedro to represent a major loss for the Dodgers. He could just be really good, while Gonzalez apes DeShields’ decline.

Like I said, I’m hungry for a World Series title, and I’m not saying the risk of trading De La Rosa won’t be worth it. Don’t misunderstand me: The Dodgers need a player like Gonzalez, who boosts them at their weakest position. I even believe that a move back to his Southern California roots and away from the Red Sox maelstrom could revitalize him.

All I’m saying is, short of Clayton Kershaw, the trade of any other pitcher besides De La Rosa would have left me more comfortable.

Not sure I agree with the people flipping out on him, especially if the Dodgers can’t upgrade their rotation significantly in the coming years. However, I think Adrian Gonzalez is a far better player and Rubby De La Rosa, while one of my favorites, won’t get to ace level.

Sports Illustrated: Jay Jaffe acknowledges the risk and the reward, saying that if nothing else it makes the season compelling.

All in all, it’s a dizzying deal that could affect not only the outcome of this year’s NL playoff races, but also could turn the Dodgers into the NL West’s powerhouse for years to come, with an enviable middle of the order starring Kemp, Gonzalez, Ramirez and Ethier. Or it could blow up in the team’s collective face, saddling the Dodgers with unproductive players signed to long-term deals, and hampering their roster flexibility much as it did these Red Sox.

Given their surrender of two top young arms, and the massive savings — and saving face — that the deal offered Boston, the Dodgers should have come away with far more than $12 million in salary discounts. That they didn’t puts virtually all of the risk on them, but it makes for a compellingly aggressive play in a playoff race that remains wide open.

True Blue LA: Eric Stephen notes that the team is headed for the luxury tax.

Dodgers Now: Stan Kasten says they aren’t maxed out yet though.

If the Dodgers can add $260 million to their payroll in one trade — and close to a half-billion dollars in four months — is there a limit to their spending?

“Somewhere, I suppose,” Chairman Mark Walter said Saturday.

And where might that limit be?

“I haven’t found it yet,” President Stan Kasten said. “I’ll let you know when we get there.”

Not sure how much of that is rhetoric, but I think we’ll see in the 2013 off-season.

FanGraphs: Dave Cameron thinks it doesn’t make sense from a baseball perspective but that it might make sense if the Dodgers make a deep run into the playoffs due to financials.

From a purely baseball standpoint, this investment doesn’t make sense. Gonzalez isn’t valuable enough to make him worth taking on the albatross contracts of Crawford and Beckett, and the Dodgers almost certainly could have gotten a better bang for their buck in free agency this winter. However, making moves this winter won’t get people interested in the Dodgers in the same way that a deep playoff run this year will.

I’m getting a lot of similar comments on Twitter, so I know this isn’t a rare opinion, but I have to wonder how legitimate the train of thought is. Dodgers fans show up regardless of how the team is doing, and the only reason attendance plummeted last year was because of a fan boycott of Frank McCourt. Even with all the turmoil, they were sixth in attendance last year, and this year they’re already back up to third. As such, I don’t buy the argument that they needed to do this during the season to make the playoffs otherwise fans wouldn’t come back and they wouldn’t make money. If the tens of millions from potential playoff revenue is going to make or break a team with billions of dollars looming, then there are bigger problems here.

Also, I don’t buy that this is to create buzz for a media deal. We’re all speculating, but logically I don’t see why cable companies, who negotiate deals like this all the time, would be swayed off their valuation due to a small sample size and not take into account the big 15-to-25 year picture. It’s already rumored to be in the $8 billion range, so how much higher could it go? Maybe they are that dumb, I dunno, but it seems iffy to assume so.

There’s no getting around the fact that the Dodgers likely just paid $20 for a gallon of milk. Given the prices everyone else is paying for milk, that seems pretty silly. If you happen to have lots of $20 bills and no milk, however, and there’s only one guy selling milk in your immediate vicinity, maybe you just complain about price gouging and hand over the $20. Depending on just how many $20s the Dodgers ownership has, this might not end up being quite as nuts as it looks on the surface.

Or, maybe I’m just over-thinking all of this, and the Dodgers just made a horrible, horrible trade. I’m honestly not sure.

Maybe, but I can’t see this trade destroying the team down the road. It might make for an inferior roster, but as long as they continue to spend, the team will be competitive. I’d just rather have to go through as little big money decline phases as possible.

ESPN: Buster Olney names his winners and losers … with the Dodgers on both.

Winners: The Dodgers of 2012

They are markedly better today than they were before this deal. Adrian Gonzalez is perfect for their lineup, their lineup balance, their defense and their ballpark, and he knows the division from his many years with the Padres. Beckett might be energized, and he gets to shift out of one of the best-hitting divisions to one of the worst.

Winners: Magic Johnson, Stan Kasten and the rest of the Dodgers’ ownership group

In less than four months, these owners have managed to completely rebrand the franchise, and, even if the Dodgers don’t make the playoffs this year, they’ve set themselves up for a major bounce forward in attendance and interest and team success in 2013. The city might throw them a parade even if they don’t win the World Series because, ding-dong, the Frank McCourt era is over.

Losers: The Dodgers of 2017

The team’s stunning spending spree feels good today, but Los Angeles has set itself up to have a roster loaded with aging stars in about five years — Matt Kemp, Gonzalez, Crawford and Andre Ethier all have contracts that run through that season. By then, the Dodgers’ farm system should be replenished, and the club’s ownership should have the resources to pave over that type of problem in the way the Yankees have — and, in any event, Dodgers fans won’t have to worry about that for a while.

ESPN: Keith Law takes a good now and bad later approach as well.

This deal could end up looking good for both sides, better for the Dodgers in the very short term but much better for the Red Sox in the long term. Boston enters this winter with a new financial lease on life, freeing the Sox up to spend in a weak free-agent market or perhaps to take on a large contract someone else would like to move (Cliff Lee? Justin Upton?).

They’re also looking at a pretty interesting group of position-player prospects racing up the system, led by Xander Bogaerts, who has improved his defense at shortstop this year and might defy earlier expectations and stay at the position. That potential for an inexpensive core should help Boston avoid a similar tangle of large contracts in the near future, just at a point when the Dodgers are facing a financial quagmire and roster crunch of their own.

Baseball executives are chiming in on the trade, basically questioning what the Dodgers are doing.

Rival exec on #Dodgers: “If you had $250M to spend, is this how you’d do it?”

— Ken Rosenthal (@Ken_Rosenthal) August 25, 2012

Rival execs are wondering why LADs didn’t simply say to BOS: We’ll take your bad contracts, but we’re not giving you any prospects of note.

— Buster Olney (@Buster_ESPN) August 25, 2012

NL exec view:”The Dodgers so wanted Gonzalez they took Crawford and Beckett’s money and traded two great arms to get him.”

— Peter Gammons (@pgammo) August 25, 2012

While I don’t necessarily disagree with their assessment, one has to wonder how much of this is legit and how much of this is just being jealous.

The quote found in the title basically sums up Don Mattingly‘s logic when he was asked about Andre Ethier‘s struggles against lefties, as reported by Eric Stephen of True Blue LA.

Part of the struggles for Ethier have been against left-handed pitchers, against whom Ethier is hitting .218/.282/.315 this season. But don’t expect Mattingly to pinch hit for Ethier in late-game situations any time soon.

“He’s one of our guys. It’s like pinch hitting for Matt if he struggled against righties. It’s the way it is. If we fall with Matt, we fall,” Mattingly said. “We’ll fall with Andre, unless I have an option that says, ‘I’ve got to do this.’ But most of the time I don’t have that option.”

What about the right-handed Jerry Sands, who is hitting .362 with 13 home runs in 44 games since July 1 in Triple A? It doesn’t sound like he would be much of an option either.

“As we get into September we’ll have a few extra guys, we’ll be able to do some things. Every team is going to have guys who are options,” Mattingly said. “If they were tremendous options they wouldn’t be in Triple A.”

I’m not going to pretend I know more about Jerry Sands than Mattingly or the Dodgers organization. I don’t. They surely have inside information on all their players. However, one just has to call bullshit on this specific bit of logic, don’t we?

Ethier has a .218/.282/.315/.597 line against lefties in 2012 and is .238/.298/.351/.650 against them for his career. Juan Uribe, over the last TWO YEARS, has a .196/.260/.287/.546 line. He is currently 0-for-August.

So to say that Sands wouldn’t be a better option for the team at some point … it’s just ridiculous.

—–

1) Replacement options in AAA have already proven that they can hit better than the level of the players up for replacement.

2) If they can’t prove anything at AAA and thus can’t get a call to the MLB, then where are they supposed to prove themselves?

3) There are never better options stuck at AAA than in the MLB? A.J. Ellis says hi to Rod Barajas. Paul LoDuca sends his wishes to Charles Johnson. Ad nauseam.

4) Having greater knowledge doesn’t always mean it’s right, nor does it mean it’s free of bias.

5) It doesn’t have anything to do with contracts and egos? Just performance? That’s why Matt Kemp and Andre Ethier had playing time stolen by Juan Pierre, Luis Gonzalez, and Andruw Jones, right? I believe the organization.

—–

Just terrible, seriously. Please find a better excuse or something, because I hate to believe that’s the actual line of thinking.

Rah rah rah, let’s trade everything to win now but let typical backwards thinking get in the way of making moves that would actually help the team do so when it comes to roster construction.

Awesome.

Eric Stephen of True Blue LA reports that the MLB has suspended Don Mattingly two games for “excessive arguing”, but Matt Kemp escaped unharmed.

Don Mattingly got what he expected on Saturday, as the Dodgers manager was suspended for two games for his argument with umpires and subsequent ejection on Thursday in Pittsburgh. But more importantly Matt Kemp, who was also ejected Thursday, will not miss any games.

The official reason for the suspension is “excessive arguing.” He was also fined an undisclosed amount.

Mattingly on Friday spoke with Joe Torre, MLB czar of discipline, and said he expected a one or two game suspension for in part, failing to keep Kemp in line. But Kemp, who reportedly got the heave ho after saying, “Let’s go Dre” during Andre Ethier’s at-bat (after prior chirping about the strike zone of home plate umpire Angel Campos), avoided suspension, possibly because his eight innings off was effectively time served.

Despite Mattingly’s earlier optimism, I thought Kemp would get at least a game. Fortunately though, Joe Torre seems to have gone a bit lenient on the Dodgers for once.

Eric Stephen of True Blue LA relays the news that Todd Coffey is out for the year with an elbow strain.

Dodgers relief pitcher Todd Coffey received some bad news on Tuesday, as the reliever is out for the season with a partially torn ulnar collateral ligament in his right elbow.

Coffey didn’t feel any pain in his arm, so he didn’t expect much to come out of Tuesday’s MRI exam.

“The only thing I anticipated was inflammation. I didn’t anticipate any structural damage because it didn’t feel that way,” Coffey said. “I expected rest, maybe in four or five days I’d be good to go but to have that bombshell dropped on me sucks.”

The bullpen injuries are getting a bit ridiculous now, so the team’s depth will matter. Shawn Tolleson will be needed to step up in his front-end role, if not, Josh Wall might get the next shot.

Seriously though, Ned Colletti should just completely stay away from signing veteran bullpen arms.

Mike Scioscia’s Tragic Illness: Mike Petriello once feared the exact deal that Andre Ethier signed, and while he holds some concerns, he finds it hard to argue against the deal.

What interests me more right now is trying to figure out just how much a big 2012 could enhance Ethier’s value on the market, because there’s a big difference between a deal for, say, 3/$36m (which I’d certainly love to do) and something more like 5/$85m (which I’d run away screaming from).

So the end result, in my view, is that the Dodgers paid a fair price to lock up one of the two best and most popular hitters on their team, a player with his share of flaws, but one who provides a service which couldn’t easily be replaced on the open market or via trade. I’m slightly apprehensive about the idea of Ethier being a $100m type player, yet I suppose I can’t really argue with the logic behind the move.

So he thinks they got market value, that it helps public relations, and that it was the best fit.

—–

Baseball Prospectus: R.J. Anderson thinks the deal is fair.

No extension is complete without hemming and hawing over the financial figures. Ethier is being rewarded handsomely for being a consistently good player (his Wins Above Replacement Player totals seem locked in around three wins per season). Is Ethier worth this kind of investment? It isn’t an easy question to answer. Consider the Dodgers’ perspective. These are new owners taking over a club whose previous owner soured the fan base. Fan morale should be improved thanks to the club’s first-place standing, but locking up a large part of the team’s recent good times gains public relations points, too.

Here’s something else to consider: the Dodgers know their own budget the best, and also know that the league might be flush with cash this offseason. It’s possible, not likely but possible, that Ethier’s deal looks prudent should teams splurge this offseason.

Even if the deal doesn’t win awards for being the most efficient usage of resources, the Dodgers should be happy to retain Ethier’s bat for an additional five or six seasons.

He believes the team may have gotten market value, that it will help public relations, and that it may prove to be a solid fit.

—–

FanGraphs: Dave Cameron thinks it’s an overpay but that the team should have the finances to overcome it, rendering the overpay meaningless.

From an abstract point of view, Ethier’s not worth this contract, but when you consider the Dodgers specific financial position, the team’s attempts to rebuild credibility with an alienated fan base, and the fairly minor scope of the overpay, this just isn’t something that anyone should get all that worked up over. The Dodgers paid a nice player a little bit more than he’s worth in order to keep him, and the difference probably won’t have much of an impact on their ability to do anything else. It’s an overpay, but an irrelevant one that shouldn’t garner all that much criticism.

He thinks the Dodgers paid over market value for Ethier, that it will help public relations, and that the future budget will take care of the overpay.

—–

True Blue LA: Eric Stephen takes a different approach to looking at the contract and compares Ethier to similar players.

Sammy Sosa, Jim Edmonds, and Carlos Beltran were the only three of the bunch to improve in their age 31-35 seasons. This group collectively averaged 2,844 plate appearances from age 26-30, and averaged 2,216 PA from ages 31-35, a 22.1% drop, with only three of the 13 players accumulating more PA as they aged. Four of the 13 players didn’t even make it to their age-35 season.

There is a fair amount of risk that Ethier could fall off a cliff from a production standpoint, with fellow Dodgers right fielder Shawn Green providing a prime example. But if Ethier does decline, the Dodgers are hoping for more Magglio Ordonez and less Trot Nixon.

You should go look at the chart, it’s interesting and much better than the similarity scores from Baseball Reference.

—–

Baseball Nation: Grant Brisbee makes the case that the message behind the deal was more important than the deal itself.

Maybe the Dodgers overpaid, and maybe they assumed a lot of risk with the Ethier deal. It’s not a bad deal, especially when you think of Jayson Werth and Carl Crawford as possible corner-outfield comps. But the Dodgers were sending a message just as much as they were trying to build a 2014 roster. If Magic Johnson is to be believed, the message will have several parts, and they’ll all be expensive. That’s the brand of the new Dodgers. It just happened to kick off with some old Dodgers.

This is yet another analysis of the contract that mentions the public relations angle, which is an interesting way to look at the deal. I actually didn’t think much of it before, but laid out like this, yeah, I can see how this might influence their decision to give him what he wanted, even if it is a little over market value.

Whether I agree with that logic is a different story though.

—–

Dodger Thoughts: Jon Weisman is upbeat about the outcome of the contract.

It’s hard to get a true bargain with established stars — which is why it was so wonderful for the Dodgers that Ethier (acquired as a minor leaguer from Oakland in 2005) and Matt Kemp emerged from their farm system in the first place. On some level, if the Dodgers can avoid with Ethier what happened with the Toronto Blue Jays and Vernon Wells, they should be happy. A major hope of the new ownership is that it won’t have to penny-pinch. As long as Ethier remains a reasonably productive player and not an albatross, the Dodgers and their fans should be happy to have him, even if he ends up pocketing something more than he’s worth.

He thinks that it’s probably an overpay, but it’ll be fine if he doesn’t become terrible.

Well yeah, but I think the risk that he does become terrible is built into the analysis of the deal, no? I mean, if I could rule out the possibility of attrition, then yeah, I love the deal.

—–

ESPN: Uh, I guess Keith Law couldn’t even be bothered to write an article on it, but it’s probably safe to say he doesn’t like it.

Someone needs to hand Ned Colletti a pen and a blank piece of paper and ask him to draw a typical hitter’s aging curve.

— keithlaw (@keithlaw) June 12, 2012

More like ROFLMAO “@Crev10: @keithlaw Did you ever publish a write-up on Either’s contract or would it have just read: “LOL”?”

— keithlaw (@keithlaw) June 13, 2012

I don’t think many are quite at this end of the spectrum.

=====

All in all, most seem to agree that’s he’s getting a deal that’s over market value and that there are concerns about regression as he ages. However, their concerns are mitigated primarily due to public relations reasons or because of the assumed budget.

The public relations angle is wonderful, and the expanding budget is part of the reason I’m somewhat neutral on the deal. However, all I care about is the Dodgers being a quality team again, so call me heartless or whatever, but I couldn’t care less about public relations or the loyalty of the fans or how many people would cry if Ethier wasn’t re-signed.

All I want to know is whether or not the deal was worth it from a baseball perspective, and judging by most of the analysis purely from that angle, the consensus seems to be that the jury is still out and they will be that way for a while.

With Javy Guerra getting smashed in the face, I have a question: why was he allowed to stay in the game?

I trust the trainers and coaches, and I’m sure Guerra felt he was fine, but I’m not so sure it was the correct move.

We can all put ourselves in Guerra’s shoes, as we’ve all been terrified at some point by sudden movements. So we know what happens when our adrenaline gets pumping and we start to feel like a completely different person. Well, now imagine that you’re in front of ~30,000 people, playing professional baseball, it’s the ninth inning, you just lost the game yesterday, you’re on the verge of losing the game today, and you just got hit flush in the jaw with a 100 mph liner.

I don’t care how “alright” he may have been, he would have to be superhuman to truly put all of that, along with the pain, out of his mind and pitch as he normally would, no? And that doesn’t even take into account the fact that Guerra had not been pitching exceptionally well of late to begin with, so why risk both the game and his health?

Either way, I know people are vilifying him for the loss, but it amazes me that he managed to pitch relatively normal following the blow.

—–

Don Mattingly, Greg Harrel, A.J. Ellis, and Guerra himself all say that he wasn’t affected by the line drive.

Manager Don Mattingly said he considered removing Guerra immediately after the line drive off his face, but decided to leave his closer in the game after Guerra was cleared by assistant trainer Greg Harrel. Mattingly, Guerra, and catcher A.J. Ellis all insisted that Guerra was not affected, physically, by the line drive.

Physically.

Mentally though? Has to be tough.

Guerra received concussion tests, which he passed, after the game. His jaw was visibly swollen as he spoke to reporters.

At least he’s okay, as he’s going to be a valuable part of the bullpen, regardless of what role he has.

Guerra has three losses, including two blown saves, in his last five outings over the last nine days, but Mattingly bristled at questions about the closer role. “Javy is throwing the ball good for us. Nothing really changes in my eyes,” Mattingly said.

“You can sit there and question all you want. Our ballclub has confidence in Javy. The game will tell us what to do with him. If he has trouble there, we’ll put him in a different spot,” Mattingly said. “Two days ago or three days ago it’s not even a question. After two outings do you think I’m going to flip-flop? I’m not.”

After thinking about it, I’m actually fine with the decision.

Kenley Jansen has always been the superior pitcher, but him and Josh Lindblom are best served putting out fires in the 6th, 7th, and 8th innings. Granted, Guerra can’t keep blowing games like this, but I’m not so sure this string of appearances has to force a change either.

—–

Eric Stephen of True Blue LA reports that Nate Eovaldi is coming to town.

Nathan Eovaldi was pulled after just one inning in his start Wednesday night for Double A Chattanooga, and speculation is that he is on his way to Los Angeles. We just don’t know which pitcher he will replace. Mattingly responded “Yes,” when asked if there were other injuries on his pitching staff, but declined further comment.

Let the speculation begin.

My money is on Mike MacDougal. You?

—–

Juan Rivera and Aaron Harang should be okay.

Rivera, who strained a left hamstring running out a sixth-inning infield single, was out of the lineup Wednesday night but took batting practice. Manager Don Mattingly said the outfielder won’t be placed on the disabled list if he is able to pinch-hit and run for himself by the weekend.

“He was getting tonight off anyway after playing five or six straight, and Sue [Falsone, trainer] said he was able to do more than she thought he would,” said Mattingly. “He’s day to day. If it lingers, we’ll think about doing something different.”

Harang said he did not expect to miss his scheduled bullpen session on Friday in preparation for his next start, Monday in Denver. He fouled a pitch off his foot in a third-inning at-bat, and it swelled as the game went on. He was removed after six innings.

You tell me whether that’s good or bad.

In what I’m sure was sheer coincidence, it was revealed that Coffey had been dealing with knee trouble.

After the game Don Mattingly said Todd Coffey has been getting treatment on his knee

— Eric Stephen (@truebluela) April 14, 2012

Truly amazing that it didn’t seem to affect his full bore sprint from the pen.

Todd Coffey to the 15-day DL (right knee inflammation) to make room for Ted Lilly

— Eric Stephen (@truebluela) April 14, 2012

Basically, this move was made because they wanted to keep both Josh Lindblom and Jamey Wright. Still though, it’s amazing to me that they’d rather put Coffey on the DL than designate Wright, especially considering Lindblom is basically their seventh inning guy at this juncture.

—–

Besides laughing at people going insane over his blown save, Kenley Jansen‘s velocity was a hot topic.

Eric Stephen of True Blue LA got a quote from Don Mattingly saying that the problem may be mechanical again, but he’s not overly concerned.

Jansen’s velocity was also down, throwing between 89-91 MPH, hitting 92 on two pitches. But Mattingly didn’t sound worried.

“Kenley’s different. There have been times early on where he gets tentative or gets off kilter, and the ball doesn’t come out the same way. We’ll continue to pay attention to his mechanics. The ninth is different than the eighth, so we’ll pay attention to that too,” Mattingly said. “As long as Kenley is not hurt, then we’re not concerned.”

Tony Jackson of ESPN Los Angeles got a quote from Jansen revealing that he’s been under the weather a bit, and he also talked to Rick Honeycutt, who echoed Mattingly’s lack of concern.

Jansen has been battling a mild case of flu in recent days, which could have accounted for the velocity drop.

“I’ve been battling the flu, but that’s not an excuse at all,” Jansen said. “You still have to make good pitches and keep us in the game and try to help the team win. That is what it’s all about.”

Both manager Don Mattingly and pitching coach Rick Honeycutt noticed the slight dropoff, but neither seemed alarmed by it. Honeycutt said it might have been due to the cold weather or illness.

Actually, sickness could explain it, though seeing is believing.

—–

Jayson Stark of ESPN has a piece on the new ownership group of the Los Angeles Dodgers, and it warns that those expecting them to spend big may be sorely disappointed, primarily because that’s not Stan Kasten‘s style.

So do people within the industry see this man suddenly turning into a spend-a-holic who starts firing nine- and 10-year deals at whoever wants to take them? Heck, no.

“That’s not Stan Kasten’s M.O,” said one veteran agent. “I’m sure they’ll be a franchise that makes moves. But I’m also sure that when Stan makes decisions, it won’t be like the kind of decisions Mike Illitch makes.”

“When it looks like a sure thing, it ain’t,” said another prominent agent. “Look at the Nationals. Ted Lerner has more money than God, and look how long it took him to start handing out big contracts. And did he hand them out while Stan was there? No. It happened after he left. So I know everyone anticipates him spending wildly now. But I’m not so sure.”

So what can we learn from that history? Nobody in baseball has a better feel for that than Kasten’s longtime general manager in Atlanta, John Schuerholz.

“It’s fair to say this group is out to re-establish the great Dodger brand,” Schuerholz told Rumblings. “But how that translates into making decisions to spend big money on big-name free agents, I don’t think that’s automatic.”

Now would Schuerholz be surprised to see the Kasten/Magic Dodgers chasing the most ballyhooed free agents in the game? No, he “wouldn’t be surprised to see them do that,” he said.

“But I don’t think they’ll do it every day,” Schuerholz said. “I don’t think they’ll do it all the time. What I’m sure they’ll do is what Stan has always tried to do — build a rock-solid organization and build it largely around homegrown talent. And at the same time, I’m sure he won’t shy away from the right free agent. But I underline the word, ‘right.’”

“I don’t think Stan rolls the dice at anything,” Schuerholz said. “I don’t think he’s ever rolled the dice. Stan analyzes. He relies on his experience and his instincts … and he makes an analytical decision about what’s the right thing to do for the franchise.”

Analyzing?

This … this … this sounds wonderful.

The bad news first, as an MRI on the oblique of Ivan De Jesus revealed a tear.

Dodgers infielder Ivan DeJesus got some bad news this morning, as an MRI revealed a tear of his left oblique, hurt during a swing in the bottom of the seventh inning on Saturday night against the Giants. Manager Don Mattingly said there was no timetable for the return of the infielder.

As I said before, him not making the team isn’t a big deal, but him being out for a significant amount of time with a lingering, slow healing injury after he just made his recovery from a catastrophic injury really sucks for him personally and dampens his chances of becoming a utility guy in the future.

—–

The good news is that Matt Guerrier looks to be fine.

Matt Guerrier threw a bullpen session this morning for the first time in over a week, after missing time with back tightness. Up next for the reliever will likely be facing live hitters in a minor league game on Friday.

I know the Dodgers are paying him a lot of money, but I’m not sure how convinced I am that he is markedly better than some of the hard-throwing prospects the Dodgers have waiting at this point.

Eric Stephen of True Blue LA finds out that A.J. Ellis probably doesn’t think he’ll be hitting second.

I asked catcher A.J. Ellis whether or not he could hit second in the lineup, and he joked, “I could be at the top, I could steal some bags.” But Ellis then noted he isn’t really concerned with where he hits in the batting order. “One of the last things on my mind right now is batting order. I just want to see my name somewhere in the lineup,” Ellis said. “My value to the team is getting on base and helping to turn the lineup over, so hopefully guys like Matt [Kemp] and Andre [Ethier] can get as many at-bats as they can get.”

Sort of reading between the lines, but he seems to politely scoff at the idea, which is a bit shitty, because he might actually be better at #1 or #2 than Dee Gordon or Mark Ellis if they get on at the same rate as 2011.

On the upside, he seems to know exactly what his role in the lineup is.

—–

Andre Ethier had some back tightness according to MLB.com‘s Ken Gurnick.

“He felt something when he was stretching and he went in with Sue [Falsone, trainer], but came back out to hit and did outfield work,” manager Don Mattingly said. “It was in his upper middle back, but Sue said he came back out to see what he could do. If anything scared anybody, he wouldn’t have been back on the field.”

Doesn’t sound serious at least.

Spring Training is here, which means all other sports matter less, and wow, there’s way too much news out of the Los Angeles Dodgers camp already.

=====

Ken Gurnick of MLB.com reports that Clayton Kershaw will start on Opening Day, which is basically the biggest Captain Obvious moment of the season.

Then Matt Kemp told the media that he doesn’t want the 2011 NL MVP Award if Ryan Braun is suspended.

“I would want to win by them voting me,” Kemp said. “I wouldn’t want them to just, ‘Oh, this person did that so how about we just give the award to this person?’ I don’t think it should work that way.

“If it is that way, then it should be a vacant award for 2011, no one should win the MVP award in the National League.”

Kemp said he hopes Braun is vindicated.

“I know Braun,” he said. “We’ve always been cool. We’ve been friends. He’s been one of my favorite players in the big leagues. I hope it’s not true.”

Kemp has handled this situation extremely well up to this point and that just cements it.

It wasn’t all rainbows and kittens though, as Dylan Hernandez of the Los Angeles Times reported that Blake Hawksworth won’t be ready to start the season because a second operation was necessary to clean up his elbow.

—–

As far as roles and playing time go, Eric Stephen of True Blue LA has a ton of news.

“Javy, to me, didn’t do anything last year to say he shouldn’t be that guy,” manager Don Mattingly said on Tuesday. “More than anything, Kenley was saying ‘Hey I can do that too’ by the way he pitched. It’s a good problem for us to have.”

“Javy has been here one year,” said Mattingly. “It’s a competition, you still have to perform. There have been a lot of guys in their first year were really good and struggled the next year. Kenley was a perfect example, as he wasn’t himself [to start 2011] that he was the year before. It took him a half a season with little problems here and there, and he was in the minors for a little bit, but next thing you know he emerged back to what we had seen the year before.”

Javy Guerra will be the closer over Kenley Jansen to start the season, and while Jansen is the better pitcher, I don’t have a problem with this, as it gives the team better flexibility in regards to Jansen’s usage.

“It’s not like he’s a bad guy, or you don’t like him. But to this point he’s been tough to count on,” Mattingly said of relief pitcher Ronald Belisario, who is here in camp, but was not available for reporters as he left for a dental appointment. “It’s a step in the right direction that he’s here.”

The much maligned Ronald Belisario was actually there in person in real life at Spring Training and it’s important because if he looks anything like his old self, Hawksworth’s injury might have just opened up a spot.

—–

In the world of position players, both starting and backup roles are at stake.

Jerry Sands doesn’t necessarily need to win an everyday spot in the lineup to make the opening day roster, but Mattingly said he needs to have a certain number of plate appearances to justify a spot on the big league roster, as the club wants Sands to play nearly every day. While Mattingly shied away from committing to a plan of sitting Andre Ethier and Loney against southpaws, the manager said that figuring out a way to get Sands enough at-bats will be one of his projects in camp.

I have a way to get Jerry Sands at bats: don’t play Juan Rivera.

The backup shortstop will be Jerry Hairston Jr., as Mattingly wants to keep Juan Uribe at third base. Should Dee Gordon go down for any extended period of time, the club would turn to Justin Sellers.

Jerry Hairston Jr. is a fine utility infielder, but that paragraph makes me want to barf. Juan Uribe at third all the time and Justin Sellers is the backup in case Dee Gordon doesn’t take off like they expect.

Could be bad.

Finally, it was announced that Gordon will hit first, while Kemp hits third.

I’ll explore this later, but this could be a bad idea. Gordon got better later in the season, but it was a tiny sample size, and as a whole, he has always struggled at taking a walk. Furthermore, contrary to popular belief, putting your best hitter in the three hole is not optimal either.

True Blue LA: Eric Stephen has the 2012 Spring Training roster.

True Blue LA: A review of the 2012 off-season for the Los Angeles Dodgers to make me cry.

—–

ESPN: Jon Weisman has an interview with De Jon Watson about the Dodgers minor league system.

ESPN: Keith Law ranks the Dodgers system 12th in baseball.

If pitching wins championships, the Dodgers are in pretty good shape going forward, as their system is loaded with power arms but is relatively light on position players.

Surprising, but I guess he likes the abundance of pitching in the system more than most.

Minor League Ball: John Sickels notes the lessons he has learned about evaluating prospects.

—–

FanGraphs: Bradley Woodrum separates sabermetrics into three branches and shows which teams use which branches.

The Dodgers are the only team with one branch.

Awesome!

Credit: The LFP

Los Angeles Times: I covered the adventures of James Loney before, but according to the California Highway Patrol, his night was even more ridiculous than TMZ reported.

Loney sideswiped three cars on the 101 Freeway in Sherman Oaks, stopped in the fast lane, passed out, then awakened and tried to flee the scene, only to crash again, said Leland Tang, a spokesman for the California Highway Patrol.

Alrighty then.

In all seriousness, it does seem like it could get significantly worse, as the tests haven’t come back yet.

Tang said officers extracted a blood sample to test for drugs and alcohol but that the test results were not yet available. The city attorney’s office is investigating the incident and deciding whether to file criminal charges.

Could end up being quite bad.

ESPN: Then again, James Loney explained to Tony Jackson how it’s just all a big misunderstanding.

—–

Dodger Thoughts: Thank god Jon Weisman decided to break down the TV rights ruling because I was starting to get a headache trying to keep up with Bill Shaikin on Twitter.

—–

Mike Scioscia’s Tragic Illness: Mike Petriello breaks down the Los Angeles Dodgers interest in Daniel Murphy.

Dodger Thoughts: Apparently Hideki Matsui is on the Dodgers radar as well.

—–

True Blue LA: Eric Stephen helps everybody catch up with the Dodgers off-season moves.

MLB.com: Outfielder Jamie Hoffmann was claimed by the Rockies off waivers, which makes it unlikely the perennial sixth outfielder in the system will be back.

MLB.com: Remember Ronald Belisario? He wants back in.

Ronald Belisario, not seen by the Dodgers since 2010, is again working on obtaining a work visa that would allow him to return to the United States and compete for a Dodgers bullpen role next season.

General manager Ned Colletti wouldn’t characterize the odds of Belisario actually showing up at Camelback Ranch-Glendale in February, but he confirmed that the right-hander has been working with government officials to allow his return.

Everybody has wishes, I suppose.

—–

MLB.com: Logan White has been interviewed for the Astros vacant GM position.

The Astros have interviewed Dodgers assistant general manager Logan White for their vacant general manager position, a Major League Baseball source told MLB.com.

Just as Ned Colletti is about to be shown the door.

Los Angeles Times: Pat Gillick would have interest in being the president of baseball operations for the new owners.

Pat Gillick, one of the most successful executives in baseball history, said he would consider joining the Dodgers if a new owner wished to consider him.

Gillick said he has been approached by prospective bidders for the Dodgers but said he would not align with any potential ownership group. Once a new owner is selected — and if that new owner is interested — Gillick said he would consider a position as president of baseball operations.

It’s an upgrade, but his history is a bit spotty.

—–

MLB.com: Dodgers are in negotiations for minor league contracts with five players.

The Dodgers are in discussions with four non-roster players on Minor League contracts with invitations to Major League Spring Training — three of them pitchers — and are close to a deal with another.

The four are: Jose Ascanio, a right-handed reliever; Jeff Baisley, a corner infielder; Wil Ledezma, a left-handed reliever; and Shane Lindsay, a right-handed reliever.

A tentative agreement has been reached with Alberto Castillo, a 35-year-old left-hander from Cuba who had a 2.31 ERA in 17 games in 2011 for the D-backs, his eighth organization. He missed August with shoulder tendinitis.

Wil Ledezma had been rumored to be signing for a while now, but the rest are new and rather uninspiring, which is to be expected.

—–

True Blue LA: Eric Stephen wrote a great article about how risk aversion can end up being risky as well.

In order to get these five marginal upgrades in 2012, the Dodgers will pay something like $26.5 million in 2013 for a group of older players ($23 million if Rivera’s option is not exercised). We could be paying $13 million in 2013 for three hitters who hit a combined .257/.314/.369 in 2011. Keep in mind, this group includes two players who were so bad in 2011 they were designated for assignment and dumped by their original teams, and a pair of homer-prone pitchers who made opposing hitters look like All-Stars outside of their friendly home parks.

I get not wanting to dive into the deep waters of the free agent market. Long-term commitments can be scary, and carry with them a lot of risk. But sometimes too much risk aversion can leave you saddled with the equivalent of a superstar price tag without anything close to superstar production.

Perhaps after all the dust settles, I’ll look at how everything actually shook out, but what this replacement level player spree is costing the Dodgers in 2013 was an eye opener for me.

As with most clubs, the Winter Meetings have been busy for the Dodgers, but while other teams are pursuing impact players, the Dodgers are busy trying to identify the clean garbage at the massive dump.

Ned Colletti revealed that he is looking to upgrade through trade with a position player and would be willing to listen on a reliever.

Dodgers general manager Ned Colletti said he met with a handful of clubs at the Winter Meetings on Tuesday looking for “an upgrade, a position player,” but that he would listen if a club offered a late-inning reliever.

Upgrading a position player makes sense, but given the payroll limitations, I doubt it’s anything good.

As far as listening on a late inning reliever, why? That’s honestly one area where the Dodgers seem to have an endless supply of solid arms and the price of relievers this off-season is insane.

In the first case, he still wants another bat. He wouldn’t say at which position, but it would most likely have to be an outfielder or first baseman. James Loney would seem to be a logical offering in return as he enters his final season before free agency and Colletti often has mentioned the capability of Juan Rivera, Jerry Sands and Adam Kennedy to play first base.

From all indications, it would not be a catcher (where the Dodgers will start A.J. Ellis with Matt Treanor the backup) and he’s seemingly committed at the other five positions with center fielder Matt Kemp, right fielder Andre Ethier, third baseman Juan Uribe, second baseman Mark Ellis and shortstop Dee Gordon.

Without offering a name, he said one player he is targeting has been a starter at his position and would be “payroll neutral,” indicating that either the player he would send would be of similar salary or the other club would pick up part of the incoming salary. Colletti said he didn’t expect a deal while at the Meetings, which end Thursday.

As people like Eric Stephen and Mike Petriello have been discussing on Twitter, it certainly would seem like this might involve a Delmon Young, Carlos Lee, or Alfonso Soriano type. Additionally, since the trade might be payroll neutral, some of the speculated names leaving were James Loney and Chad Billingsley.

Yikes. Let’s hope not.

As for the reliever, Colletti was expected to meet Tuesday night with the agent for Mike MacDougal, who bounced back with a fine season while under the radar after being picked off the scrap heap with a Minor League contract. Colletti said he has had two previous conversations with the agent, but “it might be time to get more serious about it.”

No. Just no.

Colletti did what he had to do last season and he got solid value for Mike MacDougal at a relatively cheap cost. Re-signing him for another year is just pressing your luck and hoping you don’t hit a whammy.

—–

As far as Josh Bard goes, there are conflicting reports.

Jon Heyman of Sports Illustrated says it’s a done deal for 1 year and $750k, while Dylan Hernandez of the Los Angeles Times said a minor league deal was close but then clarified that Bard is not the only catcher the Dodgers are talking to.

I’ll easily take Dylan Hernandez’s report over Jon Heyman’s, so I’ll wait this deal out. However, if it goes through, I become more and more confused as to the direction of the team.

Is the goal of this league to stockpile as many replacement level players as possible or something? I don’t get it.