There were some usual suspects playing well in the Dodgers farm system this week, but one player’s professional debut stood out above the rest.

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Triple-A Albuquerque Isotopes (4-3)

Player Of The Week

Elian Herrera – 2B

.429/.500/.607/1.107, 1 HR, 2 2B, 4 RBI, 7 R, 5 SB, 4 BB, 5 K

Herrera, the subject of call-up rumors, had a fantastic week with the Isotopes. He’s hitting .304 on the season and is still on the 40-man roster. He could get the call any time the Dodgers need an infielder/outfielder type.

Pitcher Of The Week

Matt Magill – RHP

6 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 3 BB, 8 K

Magill might be this year’s version of John Ely, except he actually has a future in the majors. Magill had one start and is in line to start for the Dodgers if Hyun Jin Ryu can’t make his next scheduled start.

—–

Double-A Chattanooga Lookouts (6-1)

Player Of The Week

Yasiel Puig – OF

.353/.455/.471/.925, 2 2B, 7 RBI, 2 R, 2 SB, 4 BB, 2 K

Puig didn’t show a lot of power this week, but he showed the ability to get on base and help carry the Lookouts to a 6-1 record. Puig could very well be in the majors by the time this goes live.

Pitcher Of The Week

Yimi Garcia – RHP

4 2/3 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 9 K

The Lookouts’ primary closer had himself quite a week. He was perfect and struck out nine of the 14 batters he faced. While he’s not in consideration for a bullpen spot in LA this season, he could be as early as 2014.

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High-A Rancho Cucamonga Quakes (3-3)

Player Of The Week

Jonathan Garcia – RF

.348/.423/.913/1.336, 3 HR, 2 2B, 1 3B, 6 RBI, 6 R, 3 BB, 7 K, 1 SB

Garcia got the nod over Noel Cuevas this week, but both Quake outfielders were great this week. These two are helping to carry the team. It’s a team that could go on a hot streak soon, provided the pitching holds up.

Pitcher Of The Week

Jarret Martin – LHP

5 IP, 8 H, 0 R, 2 BB, 8 K

Martin recorded a lot of strikeouts in his outing this week, but also gave up a lot of hits. Fortunately, he didn’t allow any runs. He’s fairing pretty well in the California League so far.

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Low-A Great Lakes Loons (2-4)

Player Of The Week

Tyler Ogle – 1B/C

.350/.435/.550/.985, 1 HR, 1 2B, 5 RBI, 3 R, 3 BB, 4 K

Ogle has been a stabilizing player for the Loons amidst the young and inconsistent players. He’s seeing more time at first base, and he should with Paul Hoenecke going on the disabled list.

Pitcher Of The Week

Julio Urias – LHP

3 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 6 K

With apologies to Jharel Cotton (who’s throwing extremely well this season), it’s hard to not give this one to a 16-year-old making his professional debut in full-season baseball. His debut was shocking in the sense that he shouldn’t be any higher than Rookie-ball at this point. He won’t remain with the Loons the entire season, but he’s Must-See TV at this point.

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Dustin Nosler is the founder of the site Feelin’ Kinda Blue. He also co-hosts the weekly podcast Dugout Blues. Follow him on Twitter @FeelinKindaBlue or like his site on Facebook.

Mark Ellis finally hit the 15-day DL, being placed on it Monday retroactive to April 27. The Dodgers activated Chris Capuano from the 15-day DL in a corresponding move.

It took the Dodgers about a week longer than it should have, but as expected Mark Ellis was placed on the 15-day disabled list on Monday with a strained right quad. The move clears a spot for Chris Capuano to be activated from the DL to start the series opener Monday night against the Diamondbacks at Dodger Stadium.

Capuano returns from a strained left calf that sidelined him for 20 days. He made one rehab start, last Wednesday against Memphis with Triple-A Albuquerque, and allowed two runs in 5⅓ innings.

What a season. Also, why would you wait so long, Don and Ned? Does playing a position player short for an entire week with a team already lacking in offensive talent on the bench really sound like a good idea?

——

Jerry Hairston Jr. also joined the injury club, as he was placed on the disabled list due to a strained groin. Elian Herrera was recalled from AAA.

The Dodgers made it official on Tuesday, placing Jerry Hairston on the 15-day disabled list with a strained left groin. Elian Herrera was recalled from Triple-A Albuquerque before the second game of a three-game series against the Diamondbacks at Dodger Stadium.

I would call the Herrera promotion a surprise, as he is the weakest hitter of the four options from Triple-A Albuquerque, but he is also the only one of the four both healthy and on the 40-man roster.

“He’s and outfielder, pretty much. We feel like those are his best positions, the corners,” manager Don Mattingly said of Herrera. “He’s played the corners. He’s a right-handed bat.”

Herrera was the choice because he was on the 40-man and others weren’t, which led to the following move.

—–

Herrera was soon thereafter sent back to AAA, as Scott Van Slyke was recalled after being added to the 40-man roster.

Van Slyke, who was designated for assignment in December and outrighted off the 40-man roster, came into camp with something to prove this season, and showed it during the season’s first month. He hit .397/.503/.733 with nine home runs, 10 doubles, 32 runs scored, and 30 RBI in 34 games for Albuquerque.

Insurance with A-Gon battling his neck injury. It only makes sense, which begs the question of why they waited so long and had to deal with Juan Uribe and friends at first for multiple games.

—–

To allow SVS’s addition to the 40-man, Chad Billingsley was transferred from the 15-day DL to the 60-day disabled list.

—–

Tim Federowicz was recalled from Albuquerque, as Justin Sellers was sent down.

The Dodgers on Wednesday bolstered their bench by recalling red-hot catcher Tim Federowicz from Triple-A Albuquerque, and optioned infielder Justin Sellers to Triple-A before their series finale against the Diamondbacks at Dodger Stadium.

“We had plenty of infielders,” said manager Don Mattingly. “We look at it from the standpoint of having a better hitting bench.”

Hey look, three catchers again. Ramon Hernandez‘s days could very well be numbered.

—–

Our own Dustin Nosler brings us the news that righty Ross Stripling was promoted from High-A to Double-A.

The Dodgers on Tuesday promoted right-handed pitcher Ross Stripling to Double-A Chattanooga from High-A Rancho Cucamonga. The 2012 fifth-round draft pick has been on a nearly meteoric rise since the Dodgers popped him last season.

Stripling, 23, posted some impressive numbers in the California League early this season. He struck out 34 batters in 33 2/3 innings, walked 11 batters and allowed just one home run. Those are numbers for anyone to hang his hat on, let alone a guy in his first full season in a hitter’s haven.

Due to his age and performance, he’s understandably being fast-tracked. If he performs at AA, and with the way injuries are going, who knows where he ends up in September.

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Greg Zakwin is the founder of the site Plaschke Thy Sweater Is Argyle. Follow him on Twitter @ArgyledPlaschke.

Zack Greinke is ahead of schedule as he works his way back from his broken left collarbone.

For the third time in six days, Dodgers pitcher Zack Greinke threw a bullpen session on Tuesday afternoon before the Dodgers hosted the Diamondbacks at Dodger Stadium. The right-hander is ahead of schedule in his recovery from a broken collarbone.

Greinke threw just over 60 pitches on Tuesday, and like Saturday in San Francisco was clocked at 90 mph. Unlike last Thursday’s light bullpen session at Dodger Stadium, the last two have been much more strenuous, with Greinke throwing all of his pitches.

“My normal bullpen session is 20 pitches at 75 percent,” Greinke said. “This was nothing like a normal bullpen session for me.”

Now, Greinke could begin a minor league rehab assignment as soon as this weekend, provided he has no setbacks. That could put Greinke in line to return to the Dodgers at some time around the last week of May.

He’s been throwing bullpen sessions and will start a rehab assignment soon, and the Dodgers could really use that lethal one-two punch atop the rotation as soon as possible.

How soon?

Try tomorrow, in Rancho.

Zack Greinke to pitch in Class A tomorrow. Would be in line to return to #Dodgers rotation Wednesday vs. Nationals. May 10, 2013

If Greinke does indeed return on Wednesday of next week, he would have missed just under five weeks, well ahead of the original timetable given of eight weeks.

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Adrian Gonzalez has a strained muscle in his neck, suffered in that odd and innocuous-looking collision with a first-base umpire a few days back.

First baseman Adrian Gonzalez had an MRI on Monday that revealed a mild strain in his left trapezious muscle at the base of his neck, but he will play through the pain.

“I’m going to try to play through it and see how it feels,” Gonzalez said Monday afternoon. “It’s not getting worse, but there’s still quite a bit of pain there.”

The injury has forced him out of games early and seen him scratched entirely in others, but Gonzalez intends to play through the pain, which sounds pretty typical for an injured Dodger.

Dodgers first baseman Adrian Gonzalez left Wednesday night’s game against the Diamondbacks in the fifth inning, one inning after making a diving attempt to catch a foul ball. Gonzalez has been battling a strained muscle in his neck, and the Dodgers say he aggravated the neck strain on Wednesday.

Gonzalez is listed as day-to-day.

Honestly, just rest the guy and DL him – which they should have done originally – as there is baseball beyond 2013. Letting guys play through injury just leads to a more serious injury or compensating for the injured area and then injuring a different area.

Speaking of the consequences of playing through pain…

…A-Gon’s shoulder injury from a couple of years ago has permanently altered his ability to hit for power.

His days as that kind of power hitter are gone.

That is not a whisper from an anonymous scout. That is the word from Gonzalez himself, who says he has been unable to recover the swing that made him an elite power hitter.

“I can still hit home runs,” Gonzalez said. “That is not going to be an issue. The full power is not the same.”

“Last year, I tried to go back to the swing I had before I got hurt,” he said. “I tried it for the whole first half, with horrible results.”

We all remember them letting Matt Kemp persist, right? Now he might not ever be the same?

Great.

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Carl Crawford‘s hamstring was feeling tight, and he was held out of the lineup Wednesday as a precaution.

Dodgers left fielder Carl Crawford was held out of the starting lineup for the series finale against the Diamondbacks on Wednesday night with tightness in his right hamstring. Utility man Elian Herrera gets the start in left field in Crawford’s place.

“Carl felt a little bit tender, it feels like something is going on. We’re just being cautious, with the off day tomorrow,” said manager Don Mattingly. “I had planned on playing him today, but when he comes in and feels like he’s a little bit tight, it’s better than playing him and he ends up pulling it and you miss him for a long time.”

A hamstring injury for a guy whose game is predicated on his legs is never a good thing.

—–

Hanley Ramirez will be on the shelf for roughly four to six weeks with his hamstring injury.

MRI results for Hanley Ramirez confirmed a strain of his left hamstring strain, and the Dodgers are placing the official timetable for his return at four to six weeks. That puts Ramirez back with the Dodgers some time in the first two weeks of June if all goes according to plan.

Just think if he and Greinke and Gonzalez and Kemp are all on the field together at the same time, healthy. This squad could possibly win a game or two.

—–

Mark Ellis hit the 15-day DL with his quad injury and is eligible to return on May 12, as the move was a retroactive one.

It took the Dodgers about a week longer than it should have, but as expected Mark Ellis was placed on the 15-day disabled list on Monday with a strained right quad.

Chris Capuano was activated from the disabled list and took his spot on the 25-man roster.

—–

Jerry Hairston Jr. hit the DL with a strain of his left groin. Elian Herrera was recalled to take his place.

The Dodgers made it official on Tuesday, placing Jerry Hairston on the 15-day disabled list with a strained left groin.

Based on various beat reports from Monday, Hairston tried to test his groin during pregame workouts but was unable to complete them. Hairston aggravated the injury on Saturday night in San Francisco, but appeared as a pinch hitter on Sunday.

Hairston was pretty much the only guy with any amount of power on the bench.

—–

Scott Elbert is set to begin a rehab assignment and could be available in the next week to week and a half.

Reliever Scott Elbert, healed from two left elbow operations, will begin a Minor League rehab assignment Friday for Class A Rancho Cucamonga and could be back in the Dodgers’ bullpen within seven to 10 days.

Elbert threw a simulated game Saturday in extended spring training in Arizona, employing a revamped delivery designed to ease stress on his elbow after undergoing two offseason operations and a platelet-rich plasma injection during Spring Training.

Well, this is a bright spot at least.

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Greg Zakwin is the founder of the site Plaschke Thy Sweater Is Argyle. Follow him on Twitter @ArgyledPlaschke.

The Dodgers announced the cuts of eight players yesterday, moves that essentially set the Opening Day roster for the team.

The club reassigned right-handers Kevin Gregg and Peter Moylan, utility man Alfredo Amezaga and catcher Matt Wallach to Minor League camp.

In addition, the Dodgers optioned outfielder Alex Castellanos, right-hander Stephen Fife, utility man Elian Herrera and right-hander Josh Wall to Minor League camp.

Welp, this turned out completely differently than what I had assumed was going to happen, with some moves for the better and some for the worse. However, the primary reason that happened was because the Dodgers basically pushed back the tough decisions for a week or two.

—–

Lineup

C – A.J. Ellis
1B – Adrian Gonzalez
2B – Mark Ellis
3B – Luis Cruz
SS – Justin Sellers
LF – Carl Crawford
CF – Matt Kemp
RF – Andre Ethier

Bench

B – Tim Federowicz
B – Nick Punto
B – Juan Uribe
B – Jerry Hairston Jr.
B – Skip Schumaker

DL – Hanley Ramirez

Rotation

1 – Clayton Kershaw
2 – Zack Greinke
3 – Josh Beckett
4 – Hyun Jin Ryu

Bullpen

CL – Brandon League
ST – Kenley Jansen
RP – Ronald Belisario
RP – J.P. Howell
RP – Paco Rodriguez
RP – Matt Guerrier
RP – Chris Capuano
RP – Aaron Harang

DL – Chad Billingsley
DL – Scott Elbert
DL – Ted Lilly

—–

So that’s the Opening Day roster barring a sudden injury or trade.

I still don’t understand why Justin Sellers needs to be the starter when a platoon at third would work just fine. Regardless, nothing we can do about it now except hope that Sellers hits a lot of balls on the ground and those balls find holes over the next couple of months.

Pleasantly surprised though that Paco Rodriguez makes the staff over Kevin Gregg and friends, as he’s probably the fourth-best reliever on this team right now.

As I alluded to earlier though, the bad part is that this is temporary. Scott Elbert and Hanley Ramirez are out months, but Chad Billingsley and Ted Lilly can come off the DL soon because their stints are retroactive, so moves will need to be made similar to what I speculated earlier.

Basically, trades needs to happen, and soon. I struggle to see a way they make carrying seven or eight starters work long-term without damaging the potential of the bullpen, because they’d have to make moves like sending Paco down because he has options.

So all in all, while the Opening Day roster is set, what the team has really done is just push the tough decisions back, so it’s now in a week or two that we’ll see what the team truly plans on doing for the rest of the season.

Opening Day for the Dodgers is Monday, and since Spring Training feels like it has taken forever, it’s about damn time. Given the closeness of the start of the season though, it’s a bit odd that there are so many question marks as to what will happen with the roster.

Every team has to deal with decisions on the 24th and 25th man, but it’s rare that a team with World Series hopes is still deciding on the rotation and the left side of the starting infield. Since the team’s starting SS is out for two months and there’s a surplus with eight starting pitchers, it’s anybody’s guess as to how it all shakes out.

Personally though, I have to figure the Opening Day 25-man roster looks something like what you see below.

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Starting Lineup

C – A.J. Ellis
1B – Adrian Gonzalez
2B – Mark Ellis
3B – Jerry Hairston Jr.
SS – Luis Cruz
LF – Carl Crawford
CF – Matt Kemp
RF – Andre Ethier

SS – Luis Cruz is a relatively easy choice for me at this spot. He plays solid defense at the position and is the best option available at the moment.

Yes, I’ve read the recent chatter about Justin Sellers getting this spot, which I suppose is possible. However, realistically I can only see that happening if they release Juan Uribe, or they trade both Aaron Harang and Chris Capuano AND go with 11 pitchers, or they roll with no real backup outfielder (Jerry Hairston Jr./Skip Schumaker).

My experience with Ned Colletti and Dodgers roster decision-making has led me to always go with the player who has experience, who is being paid by the team, and who is currently on the 40-man roster. Thus, no Sellers for me.

3B – Jerry Hairston Jr. and Skip Schumaker should platoon here. Hairston doesn’t actually have much of a split (.712 LHP/.694 RHP), but Schumaker does (.762 RHP/.521 LHP). If Don Mattingly plays his cards right here, there an off-chance the Dodgers don’t actually lose much except upside for the two months Hanley’s out, primarily because he plays terrible defense.

The alternative of Sellers’ .607 career MLB OPS, or his ~.700 career MILB OPS outside of the moon base in Albuquerque, is not appealing at all in lieu of an option like this. That logic HAS to win out, right? RIGHT?!

LF – Carl Crawford certainly looks on pace even though his already weak throwing arm looks pathetic right now. Still, he’s swinging a bat and nothing is wrong with his legs, so I can’t see him starting the year on the DL.

—–

Bench

B – Tim Federowicz
B – Nick Punto
B – Skip Schumaker
B – Juan Uribe
B – Alex Castellanos

DL – Hanley Ramirez

IF Bench – The trio of Nick Punto, Schumaker, and Uribe meet Colletti’s three standards, as reviewed above, so they’re basically locks to me. Tim Federowicz makes the team because they cut every other catcher in camp except Matt Wallach, and he’s not making the roster.

OF Bench – Why Alex Castellanos, right? Why over Elian Herrera and Alfredo Amezaga? Amezaga is simple, as he’s not on the 40-man. Herrera, who I don’t think is a quality player anyway, doesn’t provide the potential pop off the bench the Dodgers SORELY lack at the moment. Not putting Castellanos on the bench means the Dodgers would have four hitters with no power … and Uribe, who can’t hit at all.

—–

Starting Rotation

1 – Clayton Kershaw
2 – Zack Greinke
3 – Josh Beckett
4 – Chad Billingsley
5 – Hyun Jin Ryu

The order is jumbled because of injury and what not, but this is what was projected at the end of the off-season, and while it’s been an adventure to get here, it’s basically worked out how it was supposed to.

That said, given the way the schedule looks, it’s possible that Chad Billingsley or Zack Greinke could be put on the DL and have their turn skipped a couple times while they work into shape (Greinke) or recover from injury (Billingsley). Either way though, that would only buy the team 10 games or so to do something before a roster decision would be forced.

—–

Bullpen

CL – Brandon League
ST – Kenley Jansen
RP – Ronald Belisario
RP – J.P Howell
RP – Matt Guerrier
RP – Kevin Gregg
RP – Aaron Harang

DL – Scott Elbert
DL – Ted Lilly

Lefty Reliever – Sorry Paco Rodriguez, you might be better than two, three, or even four pitchers in the bullpen, but you have options, so bye bye.

Veteran Reliever – Kevin Gregg has a 0.87 ERA over 10.1 IP this spring, while Peter Moylan is at a 7.56 ERA in 8.1 IP. Colletti must have a NRI veteran reliever on the team, so it is Gregg. Plus, he has closing experience, which automatically makes him the best!

Starter Turned Reliever – Ted Lilly has to end up on the DL because he looks fucking terrible. Don’t whine to me about language. It is what it is.

What happened to Chris Capuano? I think he gets traded and soon. I picked him to get dealt over Aaron Harang because he’s a better pitcher and more valuable to teams. That said, there’s an extremely compelling case for Capuano to be in the pen over Harang. It consists of Capuano saying that he can come out of the pen, while Mattingly said he sees Harang as a starter only. I get that, but unless the Dodgers want to get nothing in return, I can’t see why a team would settle for Harang when they could have Capuano, especially given their handedness.

Either way, I’m confident something of significance happens with a trade, because if not, I’m unsure how the pen would shake out unless they carry 13 pitchers. As mentioned earlier, an option would be putting Bills or Greinke on the DL, but that’s a stop-gap solution at best. I suppose Gregg could be let go, but we all know that would burn Ned’s soul, so I figure one of the two healthy excess starters won’t be a Dodger for long.

—–

Now we just wait for the announcement that Harang has been traded, Gregg has been cut, and Sellers will start at SS because … of course it would happen.

Why hasn’t Dee Gordon emerged as a useful MLB player yet, right?

Well one play from yesterday’s game sort of summed up why he’s having so much difficulty.

On a clean single to left-center from Carl Crawford (yes, really), Dee freezes like it’s hit to the shortstop or something, then completely turns his left shoulder to look at the ball and identify the center fielder, which is something the runner should be doing before the pitch is thrown.

Thanks to the combination of his late jump and outstanding speed though, he’s sent home and is basically dead to rights at the plate, when he does whatever this is:

A hilarious, bumbling tackle/slide/dive fall into Miguel Montero‘s glove somehow works, and he gets the Dodgers a run.

Notice how after the fact he just lies there prone without touching the plate until Elian Herrera yells at him and points out that hey, maybe he should touch home.

The intangibles are off the charts, folks.

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All jokes aside, that’s Dee Gordon in a nutshell.

His tools allow him to be sent in the first place and give us a glimpse into the 3-4 WAR potential player that scouts see (used to see?), while his lack of awareness and knowledge (of the rules?) on the play show why he’s a -2 WAR player in reality.

On the plus side, Gordon has a .405 OBP this spring, with eight walks and five strikeouts, plus seven stolen bases against no caught stealings. On the negative side, he’s hitting .241 with a .241 slugging for a grand OPS of .647.

Not that it really matters anyway, since he went .379/.446/.485/.931 last Spring Training, making the conversation before the 2012 season primarily about how many All-Star teams he was gonna make, not whether he can ever have any utility in the MLB like it is now.

Baseball fans love to talk about clutch plays and clutch players, and Dodgers fans are no exception, but like with a pitcher’s best and worst pitches, there tends to be a lack of evidence presented. As such, I decided to find some basis for clutch plays and clutch players, courtesy of the WPA and Clutch statistics.

WPA

Most sabermetric statistics are context neutral — they do not consider the situation of a particular event or how some plays are more crucial to a win than others. While wOBA rates all home runs as equal, we know intuitively that a home run in the third inning of a blowout is less important to that win than a home run in the bottom of the ninth inning of a close game. Win Probability Added (WPA) captures this difference by measuring how individual players affect their team’s win expectancy on a per-play basis.

Clutch

In the words of David Appelman, this calculation measures, “…how much better or worse a player does in high leverage situations than he would have done in a context neutral environment.” It also compares a player against himself, so a player who hits .300 in high leverage situations when he’s an overall .300 hitter is not considered clutch.

So that’s the foundation for this post, and since that’s now been established, let’s get on with it, shall we?

As always, visuals have been provided because, let’s be honest, everything is better with visuals.

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I feel like it’s necessary to point out that none of this is predictive of the future or telling of the past. It’s a post about stuff that happened in 2012. That’s all.

In other words, please don’t link back to this while saying, “LOOK! THIS DUDE IS SO CLUTCH, BRO!” No.

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Top Five Clutchiest McClutchington Hits Of 2012

1. Adrian Gonzalez – +69.9%

Whenever you increase your team’s chances of winning by 69.9% with one swing of the bat, something must have gone right.

Well, it did.

It was the bottom of the ninth with one out and runners on first and second. The Dodgers trailed the Diamondbacks by a score of 4-3.

Down to his last strike, A-Gon comes up gigantic with a walk-off double down the right field line off J.J. Putz.

2. Ivan De Jesus – 67.3%

THANK YOU J.J. PUTZ XOXOXO HUGS AND KISSES

Trailing 7-6 with runners on first and second and down to their last out, feeble hitting Ivan De Jesus came up and whacked a double over Chris Young‘s head in center to take the lead.

Much love to J.J. Putz.

3. Scott Van Slyke – 61.1%

Early in 2012, the season was full of “yeah, this team is winning the World Series if this kinda shit happens” moments, and this was certainly one of them.

Scott Van Slyke hit a three-run bomb with runners on first and second to give the Dodgers a 6-5 lead after they trailed 5-3 with two outs in the bottom of the seventh inning.

Even though it was only the seventh, it felt like a gigantic moment, right? WPA agrees.

4. Elian Herrera – 51.6%

So it’s the top of the eighth with two outs, the Dodgers trail 1-0 and Cliff Lee is just absolutely taking a dump down their throats, and, I mean, there’s runners on first and second but Elian Herrera or whoever is up, so it’s inning ove … HOLY SHIT! YES!!!

Shoutout to Juan Pierre.

5. Luis Cruz – 50.7%

Bottom of the sixth, two outs, runners on first and second (this is a theme), Dodgers trail the Cardinals 4-3, but 2012 phenom Luis Cruz is up and he absolutely bombs one into the bullpen to put the Dodgers up by two.

Bonus points for pimping it.

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Overall, the fact that there are five different players contributing here, and that four of the five are still basically unknowns to casual fans, speaks to how remarkable it was that the 2012 Dodgers even stayed in the playoff hunt throughout all the injuries and what not.

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Top Five Clutchiest Dodgers Of 2012 – Field Player Division

1. Dee Gordon – 1.05
2. Elian Herrera – 0.93
3. Luis Cruz – 0.84
4. Juan Uribe – 0.77
5. Adrian Gonzalez – 0.72

The Dodgers, as a club, have a ton of injuries or guys rehabbing, so I expect this feature to be busy all season.

Two of the most important injury cases will start off today, as we get timeline updates on Matt Kemp and Carl Crawford.

Manager Don Mattingly said March 1 is a very rough target date for Kemp to get into games coming off left shoulder surgery. Crawford will likely be later than that as he returns from Tommy John elbow reconstruction.

“I don’t go definitely March 1 with Matt, because it might not be until March 5 or March 7 when he’s ready to play. That doesn’t mean anything’s wrong.”

Mattingly said both are likely to break in as designated hitters at first.

“Both guys I’ll DH a little early on,” Mattingly said on Friday. “Carl more likely [than Kemp]. He won’t get into games until the medical tests [clear their participation]. I don’t want him in a game and reacting and doing something like spinning to make a throw that we don’t want him doing.”

Kemp is doing all baseball activities, while Crawford is still on a conservative throwing program to rebuild arm strength with the hope that he will be ready by Opening Day.

Crawford is able to hit and participate in most workouts, but he is limited in throwing drills and hasn’t yet thrown beyond 90 feet.

Kemp will be delayed a bit, so he’s not on a completely normal schedule, but he sounds healthy aside from that and should be ready to start the season.

Crawford? Not so much. He seems intent on making an Opening Day appearance, but there’s no logic in rushing him back, especially given that he’s had the past two years submarined by injuries, and exposing him to injury risk by playing him at like 75% seems incredibly stupid.

——

Elian Herrera, who got buzzed in the helmet yesterday, appears to be fine.

Dodgers utility man Elian Herrera narrowly escaped injury Sunday when White Sox pitcher Jake Petricka grazed his helmet with a fastball.

“If I didn’t move, maybe I die right now,” said Herrera. “It was coming right at my face. Not good.”

Herrera remained in the game until the Dodgers’ half of the inning ended, then was removed for precautionary purposes, but said he was fine.

Considering that he’s one of the few options the Dodgers have for the backup center fielder spot, his health may end up being important the club.

—–

Tony Gwynn Jr. apparently tried to play through a sports hernia in 2012 but is healthy now.

Gwynn, 30, played with an injury that was never discussed by him or the club. He believes he suffered a sports hernia lifting weights after the 2011 season, but he never had an MRI to diagnose it.

“I didn’t want to know,” he said Friday. “I wasn’t having surgery no matter what I had.”

He was hurting last Spring Training, hurting when Matt Kemp went down with that hamstring injury in early May and the relapse in late May. Needing to fill in for Kemp on almost an everyday basis for several months, Gwynn’s already injured body finally broke down.

You hear this a ton, but it rarely ever works out the way players intend. I totally understand the motivation to play through major injury, but in the end, they usually end up performing terribly and aggravating the injury, which hurts both the team and their career.

—–

Jerry Hairston Jr. is recovering from hip labrum surgery.

There was some measure of satisfaction for Jerry Hairston on Saturday just being in the starting lineup for the Dodgers’ exhibition opener.

Five months ago, bedridden after hip surgery, he doubted it was possible.

“It wasn’t easy,” said Hairston. “I worked really hard to get back. But for the first three months, I didn’t know if I’d be able to play at this level now.”

Unlike other Dodgers coming off surgery, it doesn’t appear as if the injury will limit him going forward.

—–

As mentioned in the other feature, Eliezer Alfonzo, who signed a minor-league deal in the off-season with an invitation to Spring Training, has been felled by dengue fever and was replaced in major-league camp by Matt Wallach. Eliezer will report to the minor-league portion of Camelback Ranch once healthy enough to do so.

Paco Rodriguez, Alfredo Amezaga, and Peter Moylan, three Dodgers with shots at making the Opening Day roster, have withdrawn from the World Baseball Classic to focus on making the club.

With Scott Elbert rehabbing, Paco in particular is competing for the spot of left-handed reliever, though J.P. Howell would appear to be the front-runner there. Moylan is in the running for the bullpen as well, no matter how deep it is, simply due to the fact that he’s a veteran (see: Jamey Wright). Amezaga would appear to be a long-shot to make the outfield reserves on a team with such a high payroll, but the Dodgers don’t actually have a lot of options there, especially those who can play center field. Barring a trade, it basically boils down to him, Tony Gwynn Jr., Elian Herrera, and Jeremy Moore. In other words, hopefully there’s a trade.

Paco was slated to compete for Spain, Amezaga for Mexico, and Moylan for Australia, but at the risk of missing most of Spring Training, all three Dodgers on the roster bubble decided against participating. That leaves five Dodgers who are still in the WBC in Hanley Ramirez (Dominican Republic), Adrian Gonzalez (Mexico), Luis Cruz (Mexico), Nick Punto (Italy), and Ronald Belisario (Venezuela), none of whom figure to be in danger of losing spots.

The 2013 projection for the Dodgers from Dan Szymborski‘s ZiPS system was released last week, and given that it’s probably my favorite forecasting tool, it’s worth a look to see how the team fared.

Forecasting is not a complete science, obviously, and I’ll address some of the potential pitfalls as we go along, but it’s better to use objective tools like these than the hopes/dreams of fans or the bitterness/wishes of haters.

To start us off, how does the team fare, generally speaking? A solid playoff contender, for sure, but a super team? Doesn’t seem likely.

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The Field Players

Despite all the hype over the recent acquisitions, the key cogs in this machine are still Clayton Kershaw and Matt Kemp. It’s a promising sign then, that Kemp projects at a 144 OPS+ and the system has confidence in him continuing to put up offensive numbers in the ~.900 OPS range. His defense in center still lags below average, but his bat more than makes up for it. His playing time projection has dropped due to his injury woes last season, and quite frankly, it’s hard to fault it for that. Regardless, he still figures to be the most valuable field player on the team.

Adrian Gonzalez is slated to be another bright spot, as ZiPS pegs him to bounceback a bit, though not as much as some want, clocking in at an ~.830 OPS/128 OPS+. That would still be his lowest OPS+ since 2008 (besides 2012, of course), but it’s a marked improvement considering his age and negatively trending skills. A-Gon compensates for that lagging bat a bit by putting up plus defense almost worth a win by itself. Hanley Ramirez factors in as yet another bounceback candidate, projecting at a 115 OPS+, which is an upgrade over last year’s 106 and is closer to his pre-2011 production. Defensively, even his horribad -8 run defensive rating is optimistic to me, as he was truly terrible with the glove last year. Given that I already wanted to barf seeing him trying to turn a double play in 2012, I wouldn’t be surprised at all to see him put up horrid defensive numbers after basically not playing the position all of spring.

Unfortunately, that’s where a lot of the offensive optimism ends. Luis Cruz checks in at 84 OPS+ (106 last year), which will anger many fans, but is completely reasonable given the track record. He remains valuable through plus defense, though given the sample size, there’s reason to be skeptical there as well. A.J. Ellis at 96 OPS+ (118) is another depressing but completely logical projection, as evidenced by everybody’s surprise in 2012 at his potent bat. Andre Ethier at 112 OPS+ (123) is hard to figure for me, because he has been consistently putting up ~120 OPS+ seasons even if it has come down from the ~130 OPS+ range two years ago. I suppose the projection system thinks he’ll get old in a hurry … or maybe it just thinks he’ll face an inordinately high amount of lefties. Mark Ellis at 81 OPS+ (93) shouldn’t be much of a surprise considering he’s 36 and put up an 80 OPS+ at Coors Field in 2011.

The last guy of the starters is Carl Crawford, who is the enigma of the 2013 season. He checks in at 104, which is notable because it’s basically his career OPS+ and it’s about what he did in limited time in 2012 over in Boston. That’s of particular note for me, because what he did in Boston in 2012 can be attributed to a mechanical fix that I pointed out in an article for Baseball Prospectus. Understandably, his playing time checks in low, but if he can produce like he did in 2012 but over a whole season, the Dodgers will be much better for it.

Overall, after fixing the playing time of A.J., adjusting Ethier’s offense up a bit, and adjusting Hanley’s defense down a bit, the starting lineup totaled about 22 WAR.

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The Bench & The Prospects

Assuming a bench of Tim Federowicz, Scott Van Slyke or Alex Castellanos, Jerry Hairston Jr., Nick Punto, and Skip Schumaker, we’re looking at around 3 WAR here after playing time is adjusted back to realistic bench levels. I’m guessing Alfredo Amezaga or Tony Gwynn Jr. work their way in somehow, but a five-man bench seems likely initially if the Dodgers can’t deal multiple pitchers before the season starts. Neither player would affect the WAR projection much though.

Honestly? I have to hope the Dodgers do something to improve the bench, because the current configuration looks rather mediocre, and the other options are keeping Juan Uribe and/or Elian Herrera. Yuck.

The good news is that Joc Pederson, T-Fed, SVS, and Castle are projected to be solid at the MLB level, though it sees Dee Gordon basically languishing behind.

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The Rotation

Clayton Kershaw is simply a beast, and he figures to check in with a 75 FIP-. This might seem high considering his 2011 and 2012 ERA- figures of 63 and 67, respectively, but when you consider that Felix Hernandez clocks in at 78 FIP- for 2013, you get the picture.

What might surprise is how close new acquisition Zack Greinke comes in behind him, as he figures to put up an FIP- of 81. Granted, he has always projected favorably, as his career FIP- is 80, while his career ERA- is 88, but even adjusting slightly for that, there’s a definite case there for the best 1-2 punch in the majors.

Unfortunately, this is where it gets murky, as Chad Billingsley has the stuff to be the #3, but if I were a betting man, I would bet his elbow implodes before July. He projects at 92 FIP-, which would put him around last year’s performance, which was his arguably his best season since 2008. However, given the nature of his injury and its history in the league, you can basically never rely on him to stay healthy again until he has Tommy John surgery.

Next in the pecking order are Josh Beckett, who comes in below-average at 103, and foreign import Hyun Jin Ryu, who comes in well below-average at 116. As mentioned before, the scouting reports for Beckett match this projection, as he’s no longer a front-line starter due to his decrease in velocity. However, if he can manage to learn to pitch a bit more, he still has the curve to perhaps slot in as a #3 more than a #4. Ryu is a case where I would take any projection with a mound of salt, because there’s hardly anything to base objective projections on. Personally, I don’t think Ryu has the stuff to be a #2, nor do I think he’ll be a #3 on a team with a $250 million payroll, but he should slot in comfortably in the back-end of the rotation for years. I would project something slightly below-average for 2013 and then hope for better.

The rotation is a strong point because it has both arguably the best 1-2 punch in the majors and depth, with Chris Capuano (108 FIP-) and Aaron Harang (114 FIP) presumably traded for upgrades (or maybe kept somehow?), and it checks in at about 17 WAR.

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The Bullpen & The Prospects

As of right now, I’m assuming a bullpen of Brandon League, Kenley Jansen, Ronald Belisario, Javy Guerra, Matt Guerrier, J.P. Howell, and Ted Lilly.

Jansen is the best of the bunch (63 FIP-) and League projects a distant second (92 FIP-), but Belisario has the most upside in these projections (101 FIP-). After that, Guerra, Guerrier, and Howell are all around replacement level. Lilly projects as a league-average pitcher, assuming he’s healthy, which would be a boon to a team that has a ticking time bomb in the rotation.

As far as prospects go, ZiPS thinks Chris Reed could be a replacement-level fill-in right now, but Zach Lee, Matt Magill, and Garrett Gould need more seasoning. And for all of you who have Stephen Fife wet dreams (yes, you’re out there), he projects at a 4.91 FIP, so keep it in your pants.

Speaking of replacement level, that especially applies to the Dodgers bullpen because of Shawn Tolleson, Scott Elbert, Steven Ames, and Paco Rodriguez, so the 4 WAR projection for this pen figures to be solid.

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Team Projection

A replacement-level team figures to win 43 games, and the team with the lowest amount of wins to get into the playoffs last year was the Cardinals at 88 wins, so 42 WAR puts you in the contender range and 45 WAR makes you viable, while 50 WAR will generally make a team a safe bet to be in the postseason. The Dodgers total 46 WAR, which puts them well within the playoff hunt: good but not great.

The Dodgers basically project neck-and-neck with the rival Giants, while the D-Backs lag behind a bit by maybe a half dozen wins or so, but they’re well within striking distance as well.

So make no mistake, the Dodgers recent spending habits did not make them an elite team, as the money simply duct-taped over both a flawed team and farm system depleted by Frank McCourt‘s ownership and Ned Colletti‘s questionable decisions. But that’s not to denigrate the job the new owners have done, as they turned the franchise into a legitimate playoff contender seemingly overnight, which is still saying a lot about what money can do.

Granted, “we gave you a team that has the chance to make the playoffs” is not what fans want to hear, but it’s an acceptable scenario as they lay the foundation to rebuild the franchise the correct way in their own minds. The 2013 projections might not reflect world-beaters like most seem to expect, but it’s a projection based on historical trends rather than hopes and dreams.

The 2013 Dodgers are indeed a team with a lot of upside, and if everything breaks correctly, they could very well end up being one of the best teams in the league, but they also carry a ton of inherent age and injury risk, which is why the projections come in understandably conservative. Either way, if nothing else, this team figures to be never boring.

The Dodgers have sent a lot of guys to play in winter ball following the conclusion of the Arizona Fall League. They are well represented in the Caribbean Winter Leagues and it’s nice to see some guys getting consistent playing time.

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Dominican Winter League

Geison Aguasviva has a 7.71 ERA in 2 1/3 innings.

Juan Abreu has thrown 6 2/3 innings, allowed 6 hits, two runs, two earned runs (2.70 ERA), six walks, and struck out five.

Wilkin Castro is 22-for-98 (.224) with a home run and nine walks.

Brian Cavazos-Galvez is 8-for-33 (.242). He’s not doing much down there.

Kelvin De La Cruz (your guess is as good as mine) has thrown 14 1/3 innings, allowed 16 hits, nine runs, seven earned runs (3.91 ERA), six walks, and has struck out 19. He’s a 6’5″ left-hander from the Dominican Republic.

Jose Dominguez was just added to the roster. He’s given up one hit and struck out two in 2/3 of an inning. Still throwing hard despite his suspension.

Tim Federowicz hasn’t played since Nov. 10. Only concerning because he’s on pace to be the team’s backup and could use the playing time.

Dee Gordon finished his winter league season by hitting .269/.350/.407/.757 with 11 walks in 108 at-bats. He had six triples, but was just 9-for-15 in stolen base attempts.

Elian Herrera is 20-for-86 (.233) with five doubles and 12 walks.

Luis Vazquez has thrown 12 2/3 innings, allowed up 10 hits, four runs, three earned runs (2.13 ERA), and struck out 13. The blemish: he’s given up 12 walks.

Rafael Ynoa is 4-for-18 (.222) with a home run. He’s basically been playing baseball since March, so it’s safe to say he’s running out of gas.

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Venezuelan Winter League

Blake Johnson finished his season with a 0.69 ERA. He allowed eight hits, three runs, one earned run, one walk, and struck out four in 13 innings.

Miguel Sulbaran has a 2.45 ERA in 3 2/3 innings. The 18-year-old has allowed five hits, one run, two walks, and two strikeouts.

C.J. Retherford has a .299/.392/.485 triple-slash with seven home runs, 15 doubles, and 30 walks.

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Mexican Winter League

Jesus Alberto Arredondo has a .214/.299/.257 triple-slash with five doubles, 28 walks, and 13 stolen bases.

Juan Noriega has thrown 23 2/3 innings, allowed 29 hits, 11 runs, 10 earned runs, eight walks, and struck out 16.

Francisco Villa has allowed six hits, two runs, no earned runs, three walks, and struck out five in six innings.

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Puerto Rican Winter League

Freddie Cabrera has thrown 17 innings, allowed 26 hits, seven runs, six earned runs, five walks, and struck out eight.

Onelki Garcia has thrown 10 1/3 innings, allowed 15 hits, five runs, five earned runs (4.35 ERA), three walks, and struck out nine. It’s just nice to see him getting some work.

Jarret Martin hasn’t pitched since Nov. 17.

Osvaldo Martinez is 25-for-96 (.291) with five doubles and a triple.

Aaron Miller made his debut on Saturday. He went two innings, allowed three hits, three runs, two earned runs, two walks, and struck out two.

Andres Santiago has given up three hits, two runs, one earned run (3.00 ERA), one walk, and struck out one in two innings.

Yasiel Puig is 9-for-33 (.273) with a home run, seven RBI, and an ugly 1/13 BB:K ratio. He missed about 10 days with a knee injury.

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Dustin Nosler is the founder of the site Feelin’ Kinda Blue. He also co-hosts the weekly podcast Dugout Blues. Follow him on Twitter @FeelinKindaBlue or like his site on Facebook.

Matt Kemp

After an amazingly elite 2011 that saw him finish second in MVP voting — even though he was the best player in the National League last year — Matt Kemp had to spend far too much of 2012 as you see him above. Kemp’s season is really quite easy to break down: when healthy, he was elite, but unfortunately, he was injured often.

Kemp, through the first month of the season, picked up right where he left off in 2011, to the tune of a monstrous .417/.490/.893/1.383 slash. Let that sink in for a moment; through the season’s first 23 games, Matt Kemp was getting on-base nearly half the time and slugging just shy of .900, a number most players would dream of for their OPS. He had 12 homers, four doubles, and a 21:13 K:BB ratio in that span, and while he wasn’t going to be able to maintain that type of slugging prowess, it just goes to show how dominant a stretch he was in.

—–

Unfortunately, all good things must come to an end, but for Matty it wasn’t just normal regression that leaped in his path. He injured his hamstring in early May, and after attempting to play through it, hit the shelf for a 15-day DL stint. He returned when first eligible and managed to make it two games before re-injuring the same hamstring.

After missing the next 37 games, Kemp returned and once again swung the bat with authority, hitting .325/.372/.488/.860 over his next 40 games, ending on August 26. Why August 26? Because on August 27 and 28, Kemp’s season changed for good, as The Bison injured the labrum in his left shoulder, his knee, and likely suffered a minor concussion after running into the center field wall in Colorado on consecutive nights.

Though he had a small stretch at the end of the year where his old powerful self was on display at the dish, Kemp massively struggled while playing with what was revealed to be a serious labrum tear. His slash line was a putrid .214/.267/.420/.686, and as I wrote multiple times, the simple fact that the Dodgers allowed him to play through it is idiotic.

—–

Even with such an injury-filled season in which he appeared in just 106 games, Kemp still managed to be the Dodgers’ best hitter, going .303/.367/.538/.905 with a .383 wOBA, .236 ISO, 146 wRC+, 23 HRs, and 47 XBHs. We know Kemp is, at his best, average defensively (with a plus arm), but in 2012 he cost the Dodgers roughly 9 runs in the field. How much of that could be attributed to his hamstring and shoulder injuries I won’t begin to assume, but I’ve never felt Kemp was as much a detriment in the field as the numbers suggest.

His running was obviously affected by the hamstring though, and by the end of the season Kemp had swiped nine bags and been caught four times. Taking into account the severity of Kemp’s hamstring and shoulder injuries, he should trend upwards in 2013 on the basepaths, though probably not to the level of 2011.

Following his 8.0+ WAR campaign in 2011, Kemp’s ~3.5 WAR in ’12 is impressive considering what he had to deal with injury-wise. A return to health in 2013 will hopefully bring with it a return to his 2011 numbers.

Tony Gwynn Jr.

On the roster solely based on his excellent defense, Tony Gwynn Jr. appeared in 103 games before being designated for assignment. Gwynn would clear waivers, accept a minor-league assignment, and find himself in AAA Albuquerque to finish off the season.

Gwynn started 43 games in center, but both his offense and defense suffered in comparison to 2011. Gwynn hit just .232/.276/.293/.569 overall with an atrocious .251 wOBA, and after saving the Dodgers roughly nine runs in 2011, that fell to ~2.5 runs saved in 2012.

Gwynn can easily be a fourth/fifth outfielder for a team because of his defense, even if it is on the decline, but he’s not the right fit for this Dodgers team, even with their need for a backup center fielder.

Elian Herrera

Elian Herrera had to fit into these reviews somewhere, and considering that he started nine games in center, he’ll slot in here. In those nine starts, he hit .214/.371/.286/.657, not far off from his slash line overall in 2012 of .251/.340/.332/.672 with a .304 wOBA. Herrera did show an impressive eye at the plate, walking 10.7% of the time.

Defensively, he was below-average in center and above-average at the corners, not necessarily demonstrating a defensive prowess that would make him valuable in spite of his hitting.

Heading towards age 28, he profiles as an end of the bench player, at best.

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Greg Zakwin is the founder of the site Plaschke Thy Sweater Is Argyle. Follow him on Twitter @ArgyledPlaschke.

As everybody knew going into the game, it was literally a must-win contest for the Dodgers, as the magic number of the Cardinals was one for the final playoff spot in the National League.

—–

Buster Posey started the scoring in the top of second inning with a homer off Chris Capuano.

A Luis Cruz RBI groundout knotted the game at one, but Joaquin Arias broke the tie with a homer in the top of the third.

Yes, seriously. Joaquin Arias.

Then Marco Scutaro extended their lead in the top of fifth inning with a two-RBI double.

A.J. Ellis, the miracle man, responded with a two-run homer to right-center in the bottom of the seventh to draw the Dodgers within one.

Two batters later, the turning point in the game happened, as Mark Ellis was gunned down by about eleventy billion feet at third base on a ball hit into the gap.

I mean … what the fuck?

Immediately after that, Shane Victorino tripled, and while I always say that baseball results don’t exist in a vacuum … wow it was tough to watch.

—–

In the ninth, as if to torture us further, Andre Ethier singled to lead off the inning against a lefty reliever, which is a miracle in itself.

So bring in Dee Gordon to pinch run and either let him try to steal second or just let A.J. hit, right? Nope, try to bunt with the guy who got the game to within one in the first place! Don Mattingly everybody! His 2012 season coup de grace.

I mock the move because even assuming a successful bunt, there’s a 5.3% drop in the chance the Dodgers win, and that comes without context. With context? A.J. is a quality overall hitter with .375 OBP skills and you’re going to bunt with him for either Elian Herrera or Bobby Abreu? Does this even make sense to traditional managers? Good lord.

Results-wise, sure enough, A.J. got buntfucked. Bunt attempts put him in a two-strike hole and he eventually struck out. As if to taunt us, Dee then stole second successfully, but Abreu flew out to left.

That set up M. Ellis for an attempt at redemption.

What else can you say?

Chad delved into it further here, but the Dodgers have retained the services of Ned Colletti with a multi-year extension. They have also let it be known that Don Mattingly won’t be going anywhere.

Mattingly I can live with (but please, for the love of every God ever worshiped, stop bunting, especially with A.J. Ellis), though my preference has always been Tim Wallach. My feelings on Colletti are well-known by now.

#CollettiFail

—–

Dee Gordon was reinstated from the 60-day DL after a rehab stint with the Albuquerque Isotopes following a torn ligament in his thumb that felled him for over 50 games. He’ll take over Adam Kennedy‘s spot on the 40-man roster, as Kennedy was placed on the 60-day DL with a groin strain.

Gordon’s playing time will almost certainly be relegated to a pinch-running role barring injury to an infielder.

—–

Elian Herrera was recalled from the ‘Topes. He’ll take over Kennedy’s role of being, well, a bench piece we all dread to see play.

—–

Stephen Fife was also brought back up from AAA for his second stint with the big league club. He’ll add depth to the pen and could end up permanently replacing Clayton Kershaw in the rotation if Kershaw’s injury is serious.

The Isotopes, Lookouts, and Raptors all made the playoffs in 2012.

The Isotopes went up against a team with the best hitter in minor league baseball in Wil Myers. It was, as expected, a slugfest, but the Omaha Stormchasers got the best of the ‘Topes, 3-2.

The Lookouts went up against one of the more stacked teams in the minors in the Jackson Generals. They, like the ‘Topes, were dispatched, 3-1. A couple of bright spots include Onelki Garcia‘s performance and the fact that Joc Pederson got his first taste of Double-A (3-for-11 with a triple).

Fortunately for the minor league system, the Raptors were able to win its first-round series 2-1 and move on to the Pioneer League championship behind some strong pitching and some timely hitting.

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Albuquerque Isotopes (3-5)

Runs Scored: 38
Runs Allowed: 51

Player Of The Week

Elian Herrera – OF/IF

Herrera, who had his share of success in the majors this season, closed out the final week of the minor league regular season with one of his best weeks: 12-for-25 (.480) with two doubles, two triples, five RBI, and three runs scored. He finishes the season with a .341/.381/.520 line in 64 games. Herrera should be on the Dodgers’ bench soon.

Pitcher Of The Week

Stephen Fife – RHP

Fife earned his fourth award of the season by having a nice outing for the Isotopes on Friday: 7 IP, 6 H, 2 R, 1 ER, 1 BB, 3 K. He finishes the season at 11-7 with a 4.66 ERA, 1.48 WHIP, 10.4 H/9, 0.9 HR/9, 2.9 BB/9, and a 2.11 K/BB. He might get recalled if the Dodgers need a starter or a long man.

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Chattanooga Lookouts (5-2)

Runs Scored: 29
Runs Allowed: 17

Player Of The Week

Luis Nunez – 1B/OF

Once again, the Lookouts struggled to score runs this week. Nunez was the best hitter of the bunch, going 6-for-18 (.333) with a home run, two doubles, three RBI, and four runs scored. This was Nunez’s fourth award of the season. He finishes the year at .257/.319/.420.

Pitcher Of The Week

Zach Lee – RHP

Lee didn’t fare too well in the Lookouts’ second playoff game, but he had a great week prior to the postseason: 12 IP, 6 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 3 BB, 12 K. He finishes his 2012 campaign with some solid numbers: 6-6, 4.14 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 3.76 FIP, 3.63 SIERA, 2.1 BB/9, and a 7.7 K/9. Not bad for a 20-year-old who spent the majority of his time in Double-A (62 IP vs. 55 1/3 IP).

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Rancho Cucamonga Quakes (3-5)

Runs Scored: 33
Runs Allowed: 60

Player Of The Week

Pedro Baez – 3B

Baez, who was demoted after making the Double-A All-Star team earlier in the season, had his best week of the season. He went 13-for-24 (.542) with two doubles and two runs scored. His arm is great and it might be about time the team gave this light-hitting third baseman a shot on the mound. Baez finishes the season with a .221/.307/.375 triple slash with 11 home runs, 27 doubles, five triples, and 58 RBI.

Pitcher Of The Week

Onelki Garcia – LHP

Garcia made his professional debut and fared quite well: 2 IP, 0 R, 0 BB, 4 K. It’s a modest outing, but a nice one for a debut. How did he follow that up? With a great showing in the Double-A playoffs (3 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 7 K). Not sure where he’s going to begin next season, but I’m hoping it’s Double-A. He could be the Dodgers’ second-best pitching prospect by this time next season.

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Great Lakes Loons (5-3)

Runs Scored: 35
Runs Allowed: 38

Player Of The Week

Jesus Alberto Arredondo – 2B

An early season favorite of mine, Arredondo hasn’t made an appearance on this list since I started this feature. Well, he was able to close out his 2012 campaign with a nice showing: 9-for-20 (.450), two doubles, a triple, three RBI, and three runs scored. Arredondo finishes the season with a .253/.305/.339 triple slash. After the way he began the season, I expected more from him.

Pitcher Of The Week

Joel Lima – RHP

Lima made two of his three starts for the Loons in the season’s final week, and he pitched quite well: 12 IP, 8 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 3 BB, 7 K. He threw 28 games for the Loons, but only three in the rotation. He finishes the season with a 4.52 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, and a .277 batting average against.

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Ogden Raptors (5-1)

Runs Scored: 53
Runs Allowed: 34

Player Of The Week

Justin Boudreaux – IF

Boudreaux, who struggled mightily in Great Lakes this season, had himself a week for the Raptors. He went 5-for-16 (.313) with a home run, four doubles, seven RBI, and four runs scored. For the season, he hit .195/.292/.305 between Ogden and Great Lakes. I rated him as a top 30 prospect prior to the season. Obviously, I missed badly on this one.

Pitcher Of The Week

Lindsey Caughel – RHP

The Dodgers’ 23rd-round pick, despite being nearly 22 in the Pioneer League, is showing he might have some ability down the road. He had a nice outing in the season’s last week: 7 IP, 4 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 4 K. He followed that up with a great outing in the Pioneer League playoffs. Caughel had a nice debut season between Ogden and Arizona: 5-4, 3.32 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 3.33 FIP, 3.72 SIERA, 1.7 BB/9, and a 6.5 K/9.

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Arizona League Dodgers (1-3)

Runs Scored: 14
Runs Allowed: 24

Player Of The Week

Stefan Jarrin – 2B

It was hard to find an offensive star for the AZL Dodgers this week, so I went with the guy who hit a home run. He went 2-for-7 (.286) with the aforementioned home run, two RBI, and two runs scored. He finishes his second professional season much like he did his first: .209/.305/.363.

Pitcher Of The Week

Ronny Lugo – RHP

Lugo had the best appearance of the week for the pitching staff: 5 IP, 4 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 0 BB, 5 K. It was his first and only start of the season. He finishes with an ugly 6.27 ERA, 1.93 WHIP, and a .333 BAA.

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Dominican Summer League Dodgers (0-0)

Season ended Aug. 25.

Now that rosters have expanded, let the speculation on who gets the September call begin!

Pump the brakes a bit though, because unfortunately for the people who wish to see young players show their stuff: 1) the 40-man roster is full 2) guys on the 60-day DL are due to return 3) um … the team just traded away all of the top prospects that were close to contributing.

—–

One of the primary issues is that Rubby De La Rosa and Jerry Sands are still on the Dodgers 40-man roster, so it creates a bit of a mess in terms of roster spots. This is especially true because Ted Lilly (maybe) and Dee Gordon are set to return, which means guys will have to get designated just to fit them in. Perhaps Chad Billingsley, Kenley Jansen, or Scott Elbert could be placed on the 60-day DL, but that creates more holes, not less.

Either way, guys like Adam Kennedy, Juan Uribe, Matt Angle, Elian Herrera, and Stephen Fife might not want to get too comfortable on the 40-man, depending on what direction the team decides on. However, due to the roster crunch, those hoping for players not on the 40-man roster to get called — like John Ely, Tony Gwynn Jr., and Bobby Abreu — might be left disappointed.

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Among those who I feel could help the team immediately are Tim Federowicz, Javy Guerra, Josh Wall, and Alex Castellanos. I already went over the reasons Guerra could contribute, as I believed sending him down to begin with was foolish. Wall, despite just an average year at AAA, has the raw stuff catch fire and help stabilize a suddenly shaky bullpen. Federowicz is not as good a hitter as his .296/.371/.465/.836 line in AAA would indicate, but he’s a good defender and is an upgrade over Matt Treanor right now. Castellanos could provide right-handed thump off the bench, as his .338/.431/.610/1.041 line in AAA would somewhat indicate. I’d rather see him get a chance than continue to run Juan Rivera out there, that’s for sure.

Other possibilities on the 40-man are Scott Van Slyke and Fife. Van Slyke could do much the same as Castellanos, but I have less confidence in his bat. Still, he can hardly be a worse pinch hitting option than Uribe or Kennedy or Nick Punto. I’m not sure Fife would fit in the bullpen, but if he’s not going to get designated then he could be called up to use as a long man.

Ely, Gwynn, and Abreu could all help, but I have to think they’re long shots due to the roster crunch reasons I mentioned earlier. Personally, I would have no problem designating about a half dozen players, but the team has somehow managed to resist doing that all year, so I don’t see why they would start now. With that said, if a starter goes down with injury, Ely deserves a chance after putting up a 3.20 ERA in 168.2 innings with solid peripherals in that league. Gwynn has put up a .304/.400/.393/.793 line at AAA and I really feel like he has to be added to the 40-man and called up somehow, if for no other reason than to pinch run. If Abreu’s healthy, he could probably do what Shane Victorino is producing in left right now sans the defense, so he could be a useful bench guy.

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Assuming Billingsley, Jansen, and Elbert return from injury, and that Gordon will be back but not Lilly, I would call on Federowicz, Guerra, Wall, Castellanos, Van Slyke, Gwynn, and Abreu while designating Uribe, Angle, and Herrera.

According to Ken Rosenthal and Jon Paul Morosi of Fox Sports, the Dodgers have traded Nate Eovaldi and Scott McGough to the Marlins for Hanley Ramirez and Randy Choate.

BLOCKBUSTER: Hanley Ramirez & Randy Choate to #Dodgers, Nathan Eovaldi & Scott McGough to #Marlins, sources tell @Ken_Rosenthal and me.

— Jon Morosi (@jonmorosi) July 25, 2012

I’ll have complete analysis (with all the nerdy stuff) in the morning, but for now, my gut reaction is that it makes sense for both teams.

Regardless of what position he ends up playing, Hanley figures to be a gigantic improvement over the unholy combination of Juan Uribe, Dee Gordon, Adam Kennedy, Elian Herrera, and Luis Cruz. The production the Dodgers are getting from both 3B and SS is just terrible, and it’s not like they were playing quality defense either, so Hanley’s questionable glove shouldn’t burn the team too often.

While I am admittedly excited by the gigantic upside of this deal if Hanley figures it out again, it’s not without risk. After all, there’s a reason the Marlins let him walk with 2 1/2 years of team control remaining.

First of all, Hanley is signed through 2014 and is still owed $31 million over the next two years, including whatever he’s still owed in 2012. Additionally, his batting line has been woeful (by his standards) since 2010, clocking in at .245/.328/.405/.732. Plus, as I mentioned, he’s not a good defender, regardless of where he plays, and there are very real concerns about his motivation and happiness. Normally I would dismiss this as media inflated crap due to him under-performing, but then I consider that his hand got infected because he forgot to take his antibiotics, and you start to wonder.

Choate, the other half of this deal on the Marlins side, also makes sense for the Dodgers. Lefties are batting .150/.200/.183/.383 (yes, really) off him in 2012, and while there’s nothing wrong with Scott Elbert, he’s actually effective against righties much more than lefties in 2012.

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For the Marlins, Eovaldi should be a solid rotation contributor, though I think his upside still lies as a #3 because his off-speed stuff lags behind his fastball. From the Dodgers perspective though, they have a ton of arms in the system, and with both Rubby De La Rosa and Ted Lilly due back soon, plus a potential trade for Ryan Dempster/Matt Garza, Nate was an understandably expendable piece. It wouldn’t shock me if the Dodgers lose this trade in terms of surplus value in the end, but I think the deal makes sense, regardless.

Who is McGough though, right? I wrote about him back in February and nothing much has changed yet. I still think he can be a MLB contributor in the bullpen, but he’s not going to be an elite guy and the Dodgers have a ton of arms, so his inclusion isn’t all that important to me.

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Overall, I feel the deal makes sense for both sides. The two teams want to go in different directions, and with the free agent market dwindling for the Dodgers, they could afford to absorb salary in exchange for upgrades/upside beyond 2012, and they did exactly that. Meanwhile, the Marlins cleared a contract and a headache off their slate and got solid cost-controlled pieces in return, at least one of which can contribute to the team immediately.

I’ll be the first to give Elian Herrera a hearty congrats on a nice start to his career and for playing his role perfectly in relief of Mark Ellis, but let’s also make no mistake about the future. With some speculating that he could be a regular down the road, I just wanted to remind people that his start is almost entirely a mirage.

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He hits for no power, is an average baserunner, is a fringe/average fielder, strikes out in almost a quarter of his plate appearances, and has a .362 BABIP that was near .400 a week or so ago. He does have an impressive walk rate of 12.2 percent, and that underlying skill is certainly useful on a major league roster, especially when combined with the ability to play almost every position.

With that said though, the raised expectations and adulation heaped on him after a month and a half stint is quite a bit out of line. Put it this way, there’s a reason he spent ten years in the minors and didn’t hit the show until age 27. In the name of sanity, the obvious must be stated, and after seeing countless pieces praising his contributions, I felt like his 2012 production needed to be put into perspective.

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Nobody is saying not to enjoy the ride, just please don’t be surprised if it comes to a screeching halt, which is the direction his season already seems to be going. Herrera is hitting .179/.256/.256/.512 over his last 43 plate appearances heading into play on June 26th.

Regardless, the man has already served his purpose. Herrera helped the Dodgers by eliminating the temptation to call Aaron Miles, and he may even lead to Adam Kennedy‘s release, but that’s where expectations for him should end.

In bad news, Matt Kemp won’t be back by the end of June, and they’re not even sure if he can make it back by the All-Star break now.

Kemp has played one game since May 14 because of a left hamstring he strained twice. Mattingly said the club wants Kemp to play in five or six Minor League rehab games this time, because the two games he played in his last Minor League rehab didn’t provide enough of a test to prevent him from blowing out worse on May 30.

Mattingly said Kemp had another good workout Monday and “there’s a chance he’ll be going out to play some games,” but Mattingly wouldn’t give a time frame. He said he “hoped” it was before the All-Star break.

In good news, Mark Ellis is somehow on track to beat Kemp back to the field after getting his leg destroyed in May.

That would seem to be a miracle comeback for Ellis, who underwent emergency surgery May 19 to relieve pressure from swelling in his lower left leg after a take-out slide by St. Louis baserunner Tyler Greene.

“He’s got a chance of going out [on a Minor League rehab assignment],” manager Don Mattingly said Monday. “He’ll run the bases tomorrow. We feel like he is close. [Kemp and Ellis] are neck and neck. [Ellis] may be a touch ahead.”

Considering I was personally thinking that it would be sweet if he could just make it back by September, mid-July is quite the win.

It’s advantageous timing for the team because Elian Herrera has basically completely replaced Ellis’ production while he was gone, but now Ellis could make it back before regression completely destroys Herrera’s BABIP luck. Better yet, the team might be temped to keep Herrera and Ivan De Jesus, finally ridding the Dodgers of Adam Kennedy forever.

Via Vin Scully Is My Homeboy

So according to Alex Angert of MLB.com, the Dodgers are winning because they like each other … or something to that effect.

But in the Dodgers’ clubhouse, it provides the best possible answer as to why this mixed-and-matched bunch of journeymen and callups have been able to string together the best record in baseball at 42-25.

Not a surprising article, and quite frankly, I expected one sooner.

Whenever a team achieves something above what was expected, the media generally takes the easy way out and attributes the success to chemistry or some other intangible. It’s a simple justification for a complicated reality, and it basically amounts to saying, “We were wrong, but not actually wrong, we just couldn’t see the things that nobody else could have seen either!” But that’s lazy to me, and it’s almost completely devoid of responsibility.

For my part, I predicted the 2012 Dodgers to check in at 81-81, and I actually thought I was being optimistic due to the projection models of everyone else.

As for my mea culpa, I’ll simply say that I was wrong, but for quantifiable/real reasons.

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Quite simply, they are winning because they are good on paper, not because of mysterious forces. The team’s Pythagorean record is 40-27, they are 42-25. Their third-order wins record (factors in opponent quality/statistical normalization) is 39-28, good for second in the NL and fourth in the MLB. Their performance thus far shows that they’ve simply been legitimately good.

Now whether the talent level is legit is a different story. Nobody had the Dodgers as one of the most talented teams in the majors, which is still probably true. So what accounts for their success? Heart and grit and stuff, right? Not really.

They have shown to have more talent than projected, despite certain positions still remaining mediocre. While Clayton Kershaw has come back to Earth a bit, Matt Kemp not only didn’t regress but actually progressed (while healthy), and Andre Ethier is on pace for the best season of his career. Jerry Hairston Jr., Bobby Abreu, Elian Herrera, Chris Capuano, and Aaron Harang, despite impending regression, have all shown to have talent levels above their projections as well. Not to mention that the bullpen has been rock solid despite being almost entirely reliant on team controlled arms from the farm system.

That talent, however, hasn’t succeeded on its own, as the team currently own the second highest BABIP in the majors at .318. Furthermore, while their ERA is second at 3.13, their FIP is sixth at 3.65 and their xFIP is 11th at 3.86. On an individual level, Abreu has a .431 BABIP, Herrera has a .410 BABIP, and I’ve already pointed out that the rotation has overachievers as well.

So the Dodgers have been winning because they’ve been partially extremely good and partially extremely fortunate. It’s an excellent combination that has powered the team to the best record in baseball despite injuries and mediocre talent at multiple positions. Of course, there’s nothing wrong with being both lucky and good. The fact that they are treading water without the guy who carried the team for April is amazing, and in a fortunate bit of timing, if they can continue to tread water until Kemp comes back, the team shouldn’t actually regress as hard as they would normally be expected to.

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So while I do believe that Don Mattingly is a great clubhouse guy and I do think his work has factored into the team’s success, I also believe that winning creates chemistry, not the other way around. It’s not hard to love each other when you hold the best record in baseball.

It’s easy to just assign a magical season to outstanding team chemistry or due karma now that the team is without Frank McCourt or the gravitational pull of Todd Coffey‘s gut helping to align the planets, but there are quantifiable reasons for their success without having to resort to intangibles and superstition.

Hopefully people recognize that, because doing otherwise sells the quality of their achievements short.

Best candidate ever.

Jerry Hairston Jr. is in the lineup today, meaning he has been activated off the disabled list. Unfortunately, the corresponding move is Justin Sellers heading to the disabled list with a bulging disk in his back.

Hairston is batting .315/.403/.463/.866 on the season, which isn’t even the best part, as he was one of the best defenders in the MLB for the month of April. Sellers underwent an MRI the other day due to numbness and weakness in his leg, so it’s safe to say the bulging disk was the cause of that.

That injury saves the roster spots of either Elian Herrera or Ivan De Jesus.

When Elian Herrera was recalled to the Dodgers more than a week ago, I’m sure almost no one, besides maybe Chris Jackson of the Albuquerque Examiner, knew who he was.

Now, after eight games, he’s making his mark on an injury-riddled team and he might not be the one taking the first flight back to Albuquerque when the rest of the infield gets healthy (starting potentially with Jerry Hairston, Jr. this weekend). He has a .346/.393/.462 line in those eight games, and while there’s absolutely no way he keeps that kind of production up, he’s off to a nice start in the majors.

If I had to guess, I’d say Tuesday night’s hero, Ivan De Jesus, would be the odd man out when Hairston returns Friday.

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When I watch Herrera play, I see his vast versatility and I think of old friend Jolbert Cabrera.

Cabrera was the Dodgers utility player extraordinaire during the 2003 season. He posted a .282/.332/.438 line with six home runs, 37 RBI, 32 doubles, and 43 runs scored in 380 plate appearances. Not great, but certainly really good for a utility guy, as Cabrera was a key bench piece for those Dodger teams.

To me, there’s a lot of Cabrera in Herrera (sorry for the pun).

In fact, Herrera has even better on-base and base-stealing ability (based on minor league numbers) than Cabrera, so his impact potential seems greater — if he can keep it up.

Both Cabrera and Herrera possess the defensive flexibility that teams covet in utility men. Cabrera played every position except pitcher and catcher in his one season with the Dodgers, while Herrera has already played second base, third base, and center field for the team. In the minors, he’s played every position except catcher, so he has those same versatile qualities. And yes, he has even appeared in one game as a pitcher.

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Now, it could be a case of the league not knowing a lick about Herrera yet, thus he’s producing (albeit in a small sample size) only for now. But the point is that Herrera, 27, could be someone to keep an eye on, not somebody to flippantly dismiss, which is the outlook most seem to have.

We don’t know what the future holds for him, but he has already gone from unknown lifetime minor leaguer to surprisingly effective bench player for the MLB’s best team, so counting him out has usually been a bad bet.

The Dodgers lost their best player on Monday night as Matt Kemp was placed on the disabled list with a left hamstring strain. The news was pretty much expected since before the game, when manager Don Mattingly, Kemp, and the training staff had a lengthy meeting with Dr. Neal ElAttrache about Kemp’s MRI results, which confirmed a left hamstring strain.

“It’s a mild strain, but the doctor said if you do it again, it can go from a grade one to a grade two, and then you’re talking four weeks,” Mattingly said. “Now he has a chance to get healthy, and make sure he doesn’t have any long-term effects from this thing.”

While this is a blow, I think most can agree it’s better for him to get healthy now than to risk wrecking himself, as he admitted that it was affecting his play.

He admitted he’s been playing at half-speed since injuring the leg last Saturday in Chicago. He reinjured it trying to leg out a ground ball Sunday and was removed from the game.

“I’ve been a little scared to do certain things,” he said. “I felt it in there a little bit. I just wanted to help my team any way possible, but I was babying it a little. I came to that realization.”

Perhaps the best part about all of this is that Andre Ethier may see time in center field.

Gwynn will be the primary center fielder with Kemp on the shelf, which Mattingly doesn’t think will be more than 15 days. But Mattingly also wants to make sure Gwynn doesn’t get overused, and said he would use Andre Ethier in center field for “two or three games” with Kemp out.

Yikes.

As an alternative though, why can’t Jerry Sands and Scott Van Slyke play first base? The defense is a downgrade, but James Loney still isn’t hitting.

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In other injury news, Juan Uribe is out.

The sudden wave of Dodgers injuries continued Monday when they had to put third baseman Juan Uribe on the 15-day disabled list with recurring left wrist soreness.

The Dodgers replaced him by purchasing the contract of Triple-A Albuquerque utility man Elian Herrera and designating outfielder Trent Oeltjen for assignment.

I’m not sure why Elian Herrera has vaulted over Trent Oeltjen all of a sudden, but it’s probably inconsequential.

People are always asking me on Twitter whether Dee Gordon will be demoted. Demoted? Please. Don Mattingly won’t even budge on dropping him from the top spot in the lineup.

For whatever reason, Mattingly absolutely refuses to consider dropping Gordon from the top, and judging by what he said to AJ Cassavell yesterday, it doesn’t seem like he’ll be changing that stance any time soon.

“Dropping Dee in the order sounds really easy,” said Mattingly, who rested Gordon for Sunday’s series finale against Colorado. “But then who do you want me to hit there?”

Mark Ellis? A.J. Ellis? Bobby Abreu? Juan Rivera‘s ruptured hamstring? Davey Lopes?

Basically anybody or anything with an OBP higher than .250.

Newly acquired outfielder Bobby Abreu could lead off, Mattingly said, but that would take a potent bat out of the middle of the order.

But Abreu doesn’t even have power anymore, so hypothetically, all he’s good for is walking (hollow OBP, as Beyond The Boxscore put it).

It’s not like he’s being asked to put Matt Kemp in the lead-off spot.

Second baseman Mark Ellis could bat first, but Mattingly likes him in the two-hole, hitting ahead of Matt Kemp and Andre Ethier, and doesn’t want Ellis’ role changing on a day-to-day basis.

Ellis’ spot in the lineup has nothing to do with his success though. Even if it did, unless he drops over 100 points in OBP, it’s not exactly going to kill the team any more than Gordon already is.

“He kind of needs to be that guy,” Mattingly said of Gordon. “I know we can’t force a square peg into a round hole, but we have been able to sustain so far without Dee kind of getting going.”

“I know we can’t force a square peg in a round hole … BUT I’M GONNA DO IT ANYWAY! TROLOLOLOLOLOLOL!” – Don Trollingly

Left fielder Tony Gwynn Jr. got the start on Sunday afternoon in the leadoff spot, but as a platoon player, Gwynn won’t be in the lineup with Gordon very often. When Gwynn does play on the same day as Gordon, Mattingly said he’d be fully comfortable moving Gordon down because of the speed and on-base ability Gwynn brings to the table.

This reveals the exact reason Mattingly refuses to demote Gordon. It’s basically because he can’t come to grips with the idea of using somebody without plus speed in the lead-off spot.

It’s why he’s comfortable with Tony Gwynn Jr. leading off despite his career .320 OBP, yet he makes excuses as to why the Ellis twins and Abreu can’t do it.

It’s like Mattingly’s decision making was imported from Dusty Baker and his dugout dice.

Mattingly dismissed that notion, saying he is content with leaving Ellis lower in the lineup, where he can drive in runs and turn the order over.

“You try to have a balanced lineup where you have a chance to score in all parts of the game,” Mattingly said. “Obviously the more guys you’ve got that are productive, the easier that is.”

Besides the fact that the lineup gets turned over regardless of batting order position, you know what else helps? Being productive in front of other productive players instead of walking, having the pitcher come up to create an automatic out, and setting it all up for … Gordon.

I love prospects, and I understand that Mattingly has to defend his guys, but moving a rookie shortstop down in the order so that there’s less pressure on him isn’t exactly some world ending move. In fact, it’s pretty standard, isn’t it? Joe Torre bat Kemp eighth for an eternity, so I think Gordon can stand a few plate appearances down there without imploding.

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In other news (maybe related), Elian Herrera is on his way to Los Angeles, and he’ll be activated if Kemp gets put on the disabled list.

His .282/.363/.388/.751 career line in the minors basically sums up his skills. He can take a walk, but offers little else.

So why does he get chosen? I don’t know. He’s a utility player, basically. He has played 2B/3B/SS/CF/LF, so Ned Colletti is inching closer to his dream of having an entire starting lineup of utility players.