Clayton Kershaw

After Clayton Kershaw‘s 2011 performance, for which he won the Cy Young Award, I wasn’t sure I could be more impressed with him going forward. That’s not to say I was certain he had peaked, but it would no longer come as a surprise to me or anyone else. What impressed me so much about his 2012 season though, was the fact that he had another fantastic season while pitching through physical adversity.

Kershaw had to deal with plantar fasciitis throughout most, if not all of, the campaign, on top of a late-season hip injury that could have led to surgery, and an early-season illness that forced him to last just three innings in his 2012 debut.

After 2011 bests in FIP (2.28), SIERA (2.81), xFIP (2.84), BB/9 IP (2.08), and WAR (7.2), Clayton followed with excellent marks across that spectrum yet again, with a 2.53 FIP, 3.24 SIERA, 3.25 xFIP, 2.49 free passes per nine, and a 6.3 WAR. His strikeouts remained above one per inning (9.57/9 IP in 2011, 9.05 in 2012), and he backed up his 0.98 WHIP last season with a 1.02 mark this year.

Kid K has made his living missing bats and inducing weak contact, and he continued that trend in 2012, inducing a mess of infield popups (12.2 IFFB%) and increasing the amount of ground balls he generates for a fourth consecutive season (39.4%/40.1%/43.2%/46.9%).

In line for his second consecutive Cy, and fresh off of winning the Roberto Clemente Award, Clayton heads into 2013 on the last year of the two-year deal he signed to avoid arbitration. Slated to make just $11 million in ’13, the underpaid Clayton should have already received a long-term extension. Locking up the young stud southpaw should be the primary objective of Ned Colletti and his staff going forward.

Chad Billingsley

Entering 2012, Chad Billingsley was coming off of a pair of interesting and contrasting seasons: 2010 was his best season ever, while 2011 saw him take a step back. Always the lightning rod for Dodgers fans, especially with Jonathan Broxton away in Kansas City, Bills was at somewhat of a crossroads, as a good campaign would go a long way with the organization, while a sub-par one could have easily landed him elsewhere.

Always a Billingsley fan myself, I was very optimistic about his 2012 prospects, with one caveat:

Bills struggles resulted in a WAR cut in half from the previous year (2.1, down from 4.5) and questions about his mechanics and health. Still shy of his 28th birthday, Billingsley has every chance to rebound, and much like his poor second half of 2009 led to his best professional season, said rebound in 2012 would not be the least surprising to me. In fact, I’ll call it right now, as I fully expect Chad to be productive as Kershaw’s running mate next season, provided he is in fact healthy.

And unfortunately, that caveat became reality, as Chad suffered from an elbow injury that sent him to the DL twice, felled him permanently from August 24th on, and may require Tommy John surgery if plasma injections and rest don’t suffice as a rehab method.

Prior to being shut down, Chad started 25 games, and in just shy of 150 innings, had been excellent. A FIP of 3.34, SIERA of 3.83, and HR/9 of just 0.66 worked to produce a 2.5 WAR. On pace for another 3.5 WAR season, what was most impressive about the 2012 version of Billingsley was the fact that he had cut down significantly on his walks, trimming a 4.02 BB/9 mark down to 2.71.

While Bills isn’t the pitcher Kershaw is, we saw what cutting down on free passes did for Clayton, and it was working well for Chad too before his elbow got in the way of what was shaping up to be one of his best seasons. The Dodgers were able to lock him up prior to the 2011 season for a team-friendly three-year contract with a club option for 2015, and Chad will make $11 million this upcoming year whether or not he can throw a pitch.

A 2013 prediction for Chad really can’t be accurately made, as we have little idea whether the treatments he’s presently undergoing will ultimately allow him to pitch, though the most recent news is very promising. Tommy John surgery would wipe out his entire season, but if the treatments work and he’s able to suit up for the Dodgers next year, there’s ample reason to expect another solid year.

Chris Capuano

Chris Capuano was signed to a back-loaded two-year, $10 million deal with a 2014 mutual option, and while I wasn’t thrilled with the back-loaded nature of the deal, I was alright with him being brought on as a #4 starter. Granted, with the Dodgers #3 being Ted Lilly, they really had no #3 and a plethora of #4/#5 options, but with Cap there was at least some upside.

Coming off a bounce back 2011 season following injury issues, Capuano had a solid #3/#4 type season, whiffing 7.35/9 IP while issuing 2.45 BB/9. Like the two men to follow in this review, Chris struggled in limiting home runs, allowing over one per contest. Those walk and homer numbers were improvements over his 2011 season with the Mets, but he also struck out almost a batter less per nine than he did in his lone season in New York.

A look at his FIP, SIERA, and WAR don’t offer a clear picture beyond the aforementioned #3/#4 starter status, as he improved his FIP from 2011 (4.04/3.95), as well as his WAR (1.4/2.3), but saw a decently sharp increase in his SIERA (3.63/3.90). Cap allows a lot of hard contact (~20% LD career) and fly balls (~40% career), so pitching in a park like Dodger Stadium helps to mitigate the struggles associated with that.

Perhaps most interesting is Chris’ career pre- and post-ASG splits. In 2012, Capuano allowed a .232/.295/.374/.669 line to opponents pre-break, but that ballooned to .281/.317/.454/.770 following the mid-summer classic. Those numbers hold true for his career, as he’s always been more of a first-half pitcher (.257/.320/.414/.734 vs. .273/.331/.473/.804 with BABIP and K/BB marks that have remained steady).

He’ll enter 2013 as the #3 or #4 starter, and if he can up that strikeout rate a bit, he could be solid yet again.

Aaron Harang

Signed to a back-loaded two-year, $12 million deal with a mutual option for 2014 — a deal I was against at the time and still am upset with — Aaron Harang was exactly what he has been since Dusty Baker ruined his arm a few years back: an overpaid #4/#5 starter.

In 31 starts and just under 180 innings, Harang struck out a paltry 6.56 per nine while issuing an poor 4.26 free passes per nine. His shiny ERA may lead many to see his season as a success, but dig just a bit deeper and you find a 4.14 FIP, 4.87 SIERA, and just a 1.7 WAR.

Harang hasn’t exceeded 2.3 WAR since 2007, has not struck out more than seven per nine since 2009, and has seen his walk rate trend up in the last four seasons. That’s … uh … not good, and barring a trade, Harang will return and try to hold off age for another 30 or so starts.

Ted Lilly

Lilly only made eight starts in 2012, totaling under 50 innings, as the injury bug bit him hard in the form of a left shoulder ailment that would end up requiring arthroscopic surgery.

Prior to his injury, in an obviously small sample size, the veteran lefty posted a 3.92 FIP and 4.81 SIERA while seeing a sharp drop in his strikeout numbers from 2011 and his career rate (5.73 in ’12, 7.38 in ’11, 7.64 career).

Entering the final year of a back-loaded three-year-deal that will pay him $12 million in 2013, Lilly no longer has no-trade clause protection, but considering that he is coming off of an injury to his pitching shoulder and will be 37 for the duration of next season, there’s not much value to be had on the trade market anyway.

Lilly will reportedly be available for Spring Training barring any setback, and with a rotation already set, there’s a chance Lilly winds up in the pen to complement Scott Elbert and/or Paco Rodriguez, occupying a long-relief role and spot-starting when necessary.

Josh Beckett

Acquired in the massive deal with Boston, Josh Beckett arrived on the heels of an overblown but still bad 21 starts with the Red Sox in 2012. I say overblown because he was pitching like a #3 starter in 2012, but with all of the focus on his personality and the September collapse of 2011, you’d have thought he was pitching his way out of baseball entirely.

His results were terrible in Boston (5.23 ERA), but Beckett had posted a 4.26 FIP and 4.28 SIERA before the deal, while walking 2.7 per 9. Most concerning were his drop in strikeouts to roughly 6.5 per 9 after five straight seasons of over 8.0 per 9.

Upon his arrival, Beckett was solid and showed improvement, striking out almost 8.0 per 9 with a 3.82 FIP and 3.81 SIERA. While some might attribute that to the new manager and new clubhouse environment, it’s far more likely due to the weaker league and weaker division, offensively-speaking.

Beckett is under contract for another two seasons, each at $15.75 million, and slots in as the #2 or #3 starter heading into 2013. Going into his age-33 season, Beckett is no sure thing to transform back into the front of the rotation starter he once was, though that’s what the Dodgers will need out of him if they don’t go out and get an arm in the off-season.

Joe Blanton

Acquired from the Phillies for a PTNBL that eventually became pitcher Ryan O’Sullivan, Joe Blanton turned in a solid ten starts for the Blue Crew, posting a 3.74 FIP and 3.61 SIERA while whiffing 8.0 per 9 and walking 2.5 per 9.

Blanton’s strikeouts were a pleasant surprise, as his career mark sits just above 6.0 per 9, though he did struggle with the home run, as usual, allowing over one per game as a Dodger. Blanton’s overall season numbers are fifth-starter material, as he posted a 1.7 WAR, though his peripherals were good enough to be a #4.

After making $8.5 million each of the last two seasons, Blanton heads to free agency, and entering his age-32 season, he’ll certainly be looking for at least a two-year commitment from a team. The Dodgers will be after an arm or two, and there are worse options than him, but with the Dodgers flush in cash I doubt he’ll be a target.

Odds & Ends

Nate Eovaldi made 10 starts for the Dodgers prior to being dealt to Florida for Hanley Ramirez. In those ten starts, the 22-year-old righty struck out just 5.4/9 IP while walking 3.2/9 IP. He put up an FIP of 4.11 and a SIERA of 4.67.

While some are high on his stuff and potential as a #3 starter, I always saw him as a reliever due to his low strikeout numbers, and for the chance that Hanley hits again, it was a great trade in my book.

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Stephen Fife, acquired in the Trayvon Robinson deal that made no sense at the time, made just five spot-starts for the Dodgers in 2012. Everything I saw from the 26-year-old profiles as a bullpen arm who can spot-start here and there.

With an FIP of 4.14 and a SIERA of 4.67, I suppose he could be a fifth starter, but again, he seems to profile as a fungible relief arm with his lack of swing and miss stuff and the decrease in strikeouts as he’s advanced levels to face more competent hitting.

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Greg Zakwin is the founder of the site Plaschke Thy Sweater Is Argyle. Follow him on Twitter @ArgyledPlaschke.

It could be bad.

That leaves Sunday’s slot open, and one day after saying right-hander John Ely — who has made only two appearances in the Major Leagues this season, both in relief — could start, Mattingly said right-hander Aaron Harang likely will go on short rest. Harang tossed 4 1/3 innings while taking the loss in the first game of Wednesday’s doubleheader with the Nats.

“I talked to him today about it,” Mattingly said. “He feels good. His work will be kind of on that schedule.”

Harang hasn’t thrown on three days rest since May 29 of 2008.

If that date sounds familiar, it’s because it was the start immediately after Dusty Baker made him relieve for four innings in an extra innings game on two days rest. After which he missed a month of time with a forearm injury and had a 9.06 ERA in the 10 starts following that. Since then, he has never been the same.

I’m not saying it was Baker’s fault … I’m just saying. Oh wait, I don’t have to, because Harang already did:

“What it did,” said Harang, “is fatigue me beyond the point of recovery. I started to change my arm angle to compensate for the fatigue and that’s when my forearm started to bother me.”

I’m not saying the situations are directly comparable, but it’s pushing the envelope a bit considering that he’s now a lot older and a lot crappier. That’s especially true considering he’s still owed at least $9 million for next year. Also, for the record, Harang has a 5.50 ERA in three career starts on three days rest, most of which came back when he was good.

I suppose the only good that could come out of this is that they aren’t going to risk throwing Clayton Kershaw back in the mix immediately just for the hell of it.

People are always asking me on Twitter whether Dee Gordon will be demoted. Demoted? Please. Don Mattingly won’t even budge on dropping him from the top spot in the lineup.

For whatever reason, Mattingly absolutely refuses to consider dropping Gordon from the top, and judging by what he said to AJ Cassavell yesterday, it doesn’t seem like he’ll be changing that stance any time soon.

“Dropping Dee in the order sounds really easy,” said Mattingly, who rested Gordon for Sunday’s series finale against Colorado. “But then who do you want me to hit there?”

Mark Ellis? A.J. Ellis? Bobby Abreu? Juan Rivera‘s ruptured hamstring? Davey Lopes?

Basically anybody or anything with an OBP higher than .250.

Newly acquired outfielder Bobby Abreu could lead off, Mattingly said, but that would take a potent bat out of the middle of the order.

But Abreu doesn’t even have power anymore, so hypothetically, all he’s good for is walking (hollow OBP, as Beyond The Boxscore put it).

It’s not like he’s being asked to put Matt Kemp in the lead-off spot.

Second baseman Mark Ellis could bat first, but Mattingly likes him in the two-hole, hitting ahead of Matt Kemp and Andre Ethier, and doesn’t want Ellis’ role changing on a day-to-day basis.

Ellis’ spot in the lineup has nothing to do with his success though. Even if it did, unless he drops over 100 points in OBP, it’s not exactly going to kill the team any more than Gordon already is.

“He kind of needs to be that guy,” Mattingly said of Gordon. “I know we can’t force a square peg into a round hole, but we have been able to sustain so far without Dee kind of getting going.”

“I know we can’t force a square peg in a round hole … BUT I’M GONNA DO IT ANYWAY! TROLOLOLOLOLOLOL!” – Don Trollingly

Left fielder Tony Gwynn Jr. got the start on Sunday afternoon in the leadoff spot, but as a platoon player, Gwynn won’t be in the lineup with Gordon very often. When Gwynn does play on the same day as Gordon, Mattingly said he’d be fully comfortable moving Gordon down because of the speed and on-base ability Gwynn brings to the table.

This reveals the exact reason Mattingly refuses to demote Gordon. It’s basically because he can’t come to grips with the idea of using somebody without plus speed in the lead-off spot.

It’s why he’s comfortable with Tony Gwynn Jr. leading off despite his career .320 OBP, yet he makes excuses as to why the Ellis twins and Abreu can’t do it.

It’s like Mattingly’s decision making was imported from Dusty Baker and his dugout dice.

Mattingly dismissed that notion, saying he is content with leaving Ellis lower in the lineup, where he can drive in runs and turn the order over.

“You try to have a balanced lineup where you have a chance to score in all parts of the game,” Mattingly said. “Obviously the more guys you’ve got that are productive, the easier that is.”

Besides the fact that the lineup gets turned over regardless of batting order position, you know what else helps? Being productive in front of other productive players instead of walking, having the pitcher come up to create an automatic out, and setting it all up for … Gordon.

I love prospects, and I understand that Mattingly has to defend his guys, but moving a rookie shortstop down in the order so that there’s less pressure on him isn’t exactly some world ending move. In fact, it’s pretty standard, isn’t it? Joe Torre bat Kemp eighth for an eternity, so I think Gordon can stand a few plate appearances down there without imploding.

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In other news (maybe related), Elian Herrera is on his way to Los Angeles, and he’ll be activated if Kemp gets put on the disabled list.

His .282/.363/.388/.751 career line in the minors basically sums up his skills. He can take a walk, but offers little else.

So why does he get chosen? I don’t know. He’s a utility player, basically. He has played 2B/3B/SS/CF/LF, so Ned Colletti is inching closer to his dream of having an entire starting lineup of utility players.

Ken Gurnick of MLB.com wrote what was essentially a rebuttal to Mike Petriello‘s article about batting A.J. Ellis second in the order.

Catcher A.J. Ellis is aware of the Internet chatter suggesting he might make the best No. 2 hitter in the Dodgers’ batting order, but he thinks he’s a better fit at No. 8, which is where he’s expected to bat this year.

“Internet chatter“.

At least mention him by name and tell everybody where you got the idea from.

Ellis’ .376 career on-base percentage is what catches the eye of number crunchers, figuring he would be on base often for Matt Kemp and the middle of the order to drive in.

Aside from the obvious drawback of clogging up the bases, Ellis cautions that opposing strategy influences the on-base stat for a No. 8 hitter as much as his selective hitter’s eye.

Clogging up the bases? What is this? Dusty Baker managerial camp?

Oh you silly nerds.

“If I’m hitting second, I’m not going to see the same pitches I see hitting eighth,” he said. “If Kemp is behind me, I’m going to get peppered with fastballs. They won’t be pitching around me. I won’t get some of those walks. Sometimes as a catcher batting eighth, they work around you because they feel they have a sure out batting ninth.

“So some of those walks are a product of the pitcher. I love hitting eighth. I take it as a challenge and embrace it. There’s a strong mental aspect to it and I feel privileged in that spot. Jamey Carroll hit eighth a lot for us and he taught me a lot.

I’m not oblivious to the fact that pitchers may change the way they attack batters in certain counts depending on who hits behind them, and while Ellis is being a good sport about all this, I don’t believe what’s being argued at all.

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What we do know is this:

1) A.J. Ellis has always had a plate discipline skill.

Despite never having a minor league OPS over .800 until he got to the rarefied air of the Los Angeles Dodgers AAA affiliates at the age of 27, he still managed to stick around in the organization and continue to be a relevant piece.

Why?

Because his career walk rate in the minor leagues is 15.6%. He has walked at a 11.5% clip for his MLB career and is projected to walk at around a 13% rate next year. The average in the MLB last year was 8.1%.

Ellis didn’t magically grow this skill because he’s hitting 8th, he has always had it, and if he didn’t, he would be out of baseball.

2) A.J. Ellis makes a lot of contact.

Pair a high walk total with a ton of contact and you generally have the recipe for an acceptable enough batting average to make the player’s on-base percentage valuable.

His career strikeout rate in the minor leagues is 13.3% and he has struck out 15.2% of the time in the MLB. He is projected to hover around 15% next year, while the MLB average is 18.6%.

So despite being devoid of power, the constant contact and discerning eye help him avoid making a ton of outs, thus making him a decent hitter.

3) A.J. Ellis has not walked more in the 8th spot in the lineup thus far in his MLB career.

Granted, it’s a small sample size, but to say he has walked more because he hit in the 8th spot is just wrong as of right now.

Click To Enlarge

Just saying.

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So sure, he’ll get pitched around more frequently batting in the 8th spot than batting in the 2nd spot, but it doesn’t change his inherent skills. Additionally, one could conversely argue that getting more pitches to drive would up his average and slugging as well.

While it’s an unknown how he’ll fare when getting better pitches to hit, it’s a risk I’m willing to take, especially when the alternative is a player who had a .288 OBP last year (Mark Ellis).

Call me crazy.