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	<title>Chad Moriyama &#187; Derrek Lee</title>
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	<description>Dodgers, Sabermetrics, Scouting</description>
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		<title>Carlos Lee Trade Dead Due To His Lack Of Interest, Why Not Pursue Derrek Lee?</title>
		<link>http://www.chadmoriyama.com/2012/07/carlos-lee-trade-dead-due-to-his-lack-of-interest-why-not-pursue-derrek-lee/</link>
		<comments>http://www.chadmoriyama.com/2012/07/carlos-lee-trade-dead-due-to-his-lack-of-interest-why-not-pursue-derrek-lee/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 02 Jul 2012 21:47:34 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Chad Moriyama</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Analysis]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Rumors]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Carlos Lee]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Derrek Lee]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Garrett Gould]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Houston Astros]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[James Loney]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Los Angeles Dodgers]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.chadmoriyama.com/?p=7941</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[On Sunday, the Dodgers reportedly pulled out of a deal that would see Carlos Lee in a Dodger uniform and prospect Garrett Gould shipped off to the Astros. The Dodgers, who entered Sunday with a seven-game losing streak, have pulled out of talks for the Astros&#8217; Carlos Lee, according to baseball sources. Rumors of a ...]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><img src="http://www.chadmoriyama.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/07/DerrekLee.jpg" alt="" title="DerrekLee" width="510" height="330" class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-7983" /></p>
<p>On Sunday, the <strong>Dodgers</strong> <a href="http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20120701&#038;content_id=34257246&#038;notebook_id=34300440" target="_blank">reportedly</a> pulled out of a deal that would see <strong>Carlos Lee</strong> in a Dodger uniform and prospect <strong>Garrett Gould</strong> shipped off to the <strong>Astros</strong>.</p>
<blockquote><p>The Dodgers, who entered Sunday with a seven-game losing streak, have pulled out of talks for the Astros&#8217; Carlos Lee, according to baseball sources.</p>
<p>Rumors of a deal for Lee began Friday night and on Saturday it was announced that a trade was in place for pitching prospect Garrett Gould.</p>
<p>However, Lee spent the weekend mulling whether he would accept the trade or not and he had not made a decision by Sunday.</p>
<p>&#8220;If they don&#8217;t want to be here, then I don&#8217;t want them&#8221; Dodgers manager Don Mattingly said on Saturday.</p></blockquote>
<p><a href="http://www.chadmoriyama.com/2012/06/dodgers-desperate-for-help-essentially-interested-in-everybody-potential-carlos-lee-trade/" target="_blank">As I said at the time</a>, I didn&#8217;t get why the Dodgers were interested in that deal anyway, as it made no sense to me.</p>
<p>No loss there, in my opinion.</p>
<p>&#8212;&#8211;</p>
<p>So what now? Well, how about <strong>Derrek Lee</strong>?</p>
<p>&#8220;<strong>OH MY GOD, YOU GODDAMN IDIOT, YOU JUST SAID NO TO CARLOS LEE AND NOW YOU WANT DERREK LEE, LOLOL, WHAT A DUMMY!</strong>&#8221;</p>
<p>Right?</p>
<p>Not exactly. It&#8217;s not that I think he&#8217;s the savior, but if the Dodgers want to take a flier on an old first baseman, I don&#8217;t see why Derrek Lee isn&#8217;t a better option than Carlos Lee for a few reasons.</p>
<p><strong>1) He only costs money.</strong></p>
<p>There&#8217;s no asset to give away for Derrek, as he&#8217;s a free agent. Whatever you think of Gould, he&#8217;s obviously a usable asset, which I don&#8217;t think should&#8217;ve been on the table for what amounted to basically a lateral move and a prayer.</p>
<p><strong>2) He might be better with the bat than Carlos.</strong></p>
<p>Derrek hit .267/.325/.446/.771 last season and projection systems ranged from .756 to .826 for 2012. Carlos hit .275/.342/.446/.788 last season and projection systems ranged from .739 to .788 for 2012.</p>
<p>The upside with Derrek seems to be higher because of a presumed bounce back in walk rate and the fact that his power hasn&#8217;t completely left him yet, despite his diminishing ability to square up the ball consistently.</p>
<p><strong>3) He&#8217;s a better defender than Carlos.</strong></p>
<p>While similarly old, Derrek has always been athletic and a solid defender. Therefore, unlike Carlos, he shouldn&#8217;t be much of a drop-off in that area from <strong>James Loney</strong>.</p>
<p>&#8212;&#8211;</p>
<p>While neither are likely to carry a team for half a season, there are legitimate reasons that Derrek Lee is more likely to contribute than Carlos Lee. Most importantly though, the cost of acquiring the former is just money.</p>
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		<title>Dodgers Desperate For Help, Essentially Interested In Everybody + Potential Carlos Lee Trade</title>
		<link>http://www.chadmoriyama.com/2012/06/dodgers-desperate-for-help-essentially-interested-in-everybody-potential-carlos-lee-trade/</link>
		<comments>http://www.chadmoriyama.com/2012/06/dodgers-desperate-for-help-essentially-interested-in-everybody-potential-carlos-lee-trade/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sat, 30 Jun 2012 14:45:00 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Chad Moriyama</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Analysis]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Rumors]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Bryan LaHair]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Buster Olney]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Carlos Lee]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Derrek Lee]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Garrett Gould]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[James Loney]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Jed Lowrie]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Juan Rivera]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Ken Rosenthal]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Los Angeles Dodgers]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Ned Colletti]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Ryan Dempster]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Zach Lee]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.chadmoriyama.com/?p=7926</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[It&#8217;s no secret that the Dodgers are desperate for help. Offense has been the primary problem of late, as the team is now feeling the effects of missing cogs like Matt Kemp, Andre Ethier, and Mark Ellis. However, Ned Colletti has been looking to shore up pitching as well. As of the last couple of ...]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><img src="http://www.chadmoriyama.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/06/CarlosLee-575x399.jpg" alt="" title="CarlosLee" width="575" height="399" class="aligncenter size-large wp-image-7927" /></p>
<p>It&#8217;s no secret that the <strong>Dodgers</strong> are desperate for help. Offense has been the primary problem of late, as the team is now feeling the effects of missing cogs like <strong>Matt Kemp</strong>, <strong>Andre Ethier</strong>, and <strong>Mark Ellis</strong>. However, <strong>Ned Colletti</strong> has been looking to shore up pitching as well.</p>
<p>As of the last couple of days though, seemingly as a result of the recent losing streak, talks have intensified everywhere, and the Dodgers are apparently trying to find upgrades wherever they can get them.</p>
<p>&#8212;&#8211;</p>
<p>A prime example of their current mindset is <strong>Buster Olney</strong> <a href="http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/blog/_/name/olney_buster/id/8106690/los-angeles-dodgers-need-offensive-help-options-limited-mlb" target="_blank">listing basically everybody</a> as potential trade targets for the Dodgers. He mentions <strong>Jeff Francouer</strong>, <strong>Alfonso Soriano</strong>, <strong>Chase Headley</strong>, <strong>Edwin Encarnacion</strong>, <strong>Vernon Wells</strong>, <strong>Carlos Lee</strong>, <strong>Justin Morneau</strong>, <strong>Bryan LaHair</strong>, <strong>Hanley Ramirez</strong>, <strong>Daniel Murphy</strong>, and &#8220;<em>Boston Red Sox leftovers</em>&#8220;. I wouldn&#8217;t waste too much time thinking about scenarios for most of those names, as it&#8217;s just speculation, but it gives you a general idea of what the team is looking at.</p>
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p>Dodgers have scouted Bryan LaHair, and like other teams, they have concerns about defense. Maybe that won&#8217;t matter, because they need help.</p>
<p>&mdash; Buster Olney (@Buster_ESPN) <a href="https://twitter.com/Buster_ESPN/status/218156090716733441" data-datetime="2012-06-28T01:37:19+00:00">June 28, 2012</a></p></blockquote>
<p><strong>Ken Rosenthal</strong>&#8216;s recent <a href="http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2012/06/dodgers-notes-cubs-brewers-dempster-lee.html" target="_blank">reports</a> provide another example, as he reveals the Dodgers have been in touch with at least eight teams about a variety of positions.</p>
<blockquote><p>According to major league sources, they have talked multiple times to the Cubs, Astros, and Brewers.  They&#8217;ve also touched base with a number of other teams, including the Mariners, Royals, Twins, Blue Jays and Padres, sources said.  The Dodgers would like to add a hitter, a starting pitcher, and a left-handed reliever.</p></blockquote>
<p>So the Dodgers are contacting everybody in an effort to improve the squad, not just the offense, but also the rotation and bullpen.</p>
<p><a href="http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2012/06/dodgers-notes-cubs-brewers-dempster-lee.html" target="_blank">Specifically</a>, the team is looking hard at <strong>Ryan Dempster</strong>, <a href="http://www.chadmoriyama.com/2012/06/dodgers-have-six-quality-starters-but-ryan-dempster-interest-understandable/" target="_blank">who I wrote about before</a>, and are even apparently considering <strong>Derrek Lee</strong>.</p>
<blockquote><p>Speaking of the Cubs, the Dodgers are viewed as a favorite to land Ryan Dempster once he returns from the disabled list, sources suggest to Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com.  The two sides haven&#8217;t talked since the week before Dempster went down but a person familiar with the situation says Los Angeles has a very good chance to land the right-hander.</p></blockquote>
<blockquote><p>The Dodgers are lukewarm to the idea of signing Derrek Lee, and would prefer to explore other options first, a major league source told Rosenthal.  Lee would require time at Triple-A and the Dodgers seem to prefer more certainty and perhaps a more immediate solution at first base.</p></blockquote>
<p>Would take the Lee interest with a grain of salt, but the Dodgers are clearly looking for just about anybody who is alive and can play first base at this point.</p>
<p>&#8212;&#8211;</p>
<p>So with that established, the hot button issue at the moment are <a href="http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2012/06/dodgers-astros-discussion-lowrie-trade.html" target="_blank">the rumors</a> involving <strong>Zach Lee</strong>, <strong>Garrett Gould</strong>, <strong>Jed Lowrie</strong>, and <strong>Carlos Lee</strong>.</p>
<blockquote><p>9:02pm: The Dodgers are talking to the Astros about a trade that would send Jed Lowrie to the Dodgers with minor-leaguers Zach Lee and Garrett Gould headed to Houston, according to Buster Olney of ESPN.com (via Twitter).  One source place the odds of the deal taking place at about 50-50 right now, Olney tweets.</p></blockquote>
<p>I understood the interest in Lowrie, as <strong>Dee Gordon</strong> has been a black hole, both offensively and defensively, but Carlos is a marginal upgrade at best, if he even is one.</p>
<blockquote><p>10:11pm: The Dodgers asked about Lowrie, but he&#8217;s now not in the current talks, tweets Buster Olney of ESPN.com.  A source says that there&#8217;s a 50-50 shot that Carlos Lee accepts a deal to Los Angeles for pitching prospects.</p></blockquote>
<p>This is where I got negative. With Lowrie out of the picture, it&#8217;s Carlos for &#8220;pitching prospects&#8221;, plural.</p>
<blockquote><p>9:57pm: Dodgers‬&#8217; talks with ‪Astros‬ involve Carlos Lee, not Jed Lowrie, according to Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports (via Twitter).  Lee would need to a approve deal and has the right to block a deal to the Dodgers.</p></blockquote>
<p>As I was expressing on Twitter, I&#8217;m not thrilled with the idea of trading prospects for Carlos Lee. A solid segment of fans disagreed though, as they were generally enamored with acquiring an upgrade over <strong>James Loney</strong>. I&#8217;m just not sure Carlos Lee is the guy they&#8217;re looking for.</p>
<p>Carlos Lee&#8217;s current slash line is .290/.342/.412/.754, which is in line with his recent production, and he projects to hit .276/.328/.434/.762 the rest of the way. Additionally, consider that he&#8217;s a terrible defender in the outfield and a fringe to poor defender at first base.</p>
<p>James Loney&#8217;s current line is .236/.303/.323/.626, which is partially the result of lower than normal BABIP. He projects to hit .266/.327/.387/.714 the rest of the way. Plus, he plays above-average to plus defense at first.</p>
<p>Now 50 points difference in OPS is nothing to scoff at, but factor in the defense and then consider that Loney has a .802 OPS career against righties (.669 against lefties) and <strong>Juan Rivera</strong> has a .821 career OPS against lefties (.747 against righties). Now the gap is basically non-existent.</p>
<p>You know how to tell that this trade is an iffy upgrade? When it&#8217;s even arguable as to whether a potential acquisition is an improvement over James Loney and Juan Rivera.</p>
<p>Then there&#8217;s the matter of the prospects involved, but I already gave my thoughts on that through Twitter.</p>
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p>My problem isn&#8217;t the prospects involved as much as it is getting players who are decent in return, which Ned has trouble doing.</p>
<p>&mdash; Chad Moriyama (@ChadMoriyama) <a href="https://twitter.com/ChadMoriyama/status/218935407444893696" data-datetime="2012-06-30T05:14:03+00:00">June 30, 2012</a></p></blockquote>
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p>Garrett Gould most likely busts anyway, as do most prospects, but surrendering them randomly for crap is pointless.</p>
<p>&mdash; Chad Moriyama (@ChadMoriyama) <a href="https://twitter.com/ChadMoriyama/status/218939722918133760" data-datetime="2012-06-30T05:31:12+00:00">June 30, 2012</a></p></blockquote>
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p>The discussion is about the logic behind giving up assets at random because &#8220;it&#8217;s an upgrade now&#8221;.</p>
<p>&mdash; Chad Moriyama (@ChadMoriyama) <a href="https://twitter.com/ChadMoriyama/status/218941385255026688" data-datetime="2012-06-30T05:37:48+00:00">June 30, 2012</a></p></blockquote>
<p>It&#8217;s not so much about the prospects, it&#8217;s about giving away legitimate assets for questionable upgrades.</p>
<p>Some people are happy to give away prospects for immediate upgrades, no matter how small, but why give away prospects for basically no reason? Throwing shit against the wall may work in small sample sizes, but do it enough and you&#8217;ll get burned more often than not.</p>
<p>The Dodgers under Colletti have made <a href="http://www.chadmoriyama.com/2012/06/around-the-web-are-dodgers-fans-right-to-worry-about-ned-colletti-at-the-deadline/" target="_blank">a habit of surrendering solid assets for marginal upgrades</a>, so it&#8217;s a legitimate concern for fans, and history indicates we have every right to be.</p>
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