In six short days with the team in 2013, Dee Gordon has already showcased everything that once made him a top prospect and everything that made him one of the worst players in the MLB last year.

It’s a tiny sample, yet he’s managed to fit in so much amazement and failure that his performance has been noteworthy, regardless. In a way, he’s proven both his supporters and detractors correct so far.

Me? I’m neutral on his call-up, because while I think there’s certainly more upside to him than Justin Sellers or Luis Cruz or Juan Uribe, there’s also downside.

Generally speaking, Sellers and Cruz might be around 0 WAR players. Maybe they’re 0.5 WAR guys, maybe they’re -0.5 WAR guys, but at the end of the day, they should fall in around there. Fringe utility players, basically.

Gordon, on the other hand, has always had an upside around 3 WAR player, but his downside, as seen last year, is that of around a -3 WAR player, because unlike Cruz and Sellers and Uribe, his defense can be atrocious. Thus, if he hits like they do, and he certainly did last year, it’s two negatives instead of just one.

—–

Hitting

He’s hit .316/.409/.421/.830 thus far, yes, but it comes with a .429 BABIP, which is high even for somebody of his speed. The promising part though is his new patience, but the trade-off appears to be more strikeouts, which happen far too often for a slap-and-run type of hitter he is.

Undoubtedly this has been his strength so far, but whether it continues over a significant sample or not has always been the issue.

Fielding

He’s shown range and the ability to get to balls that not many can (first GIF), but he’s also shown the tendency to make careless errors and show a lack of fundamental skills.

On only one of the three misplays featured here was he marked with an error, but it’s still poor defense … and it’s only half of the misplays I found.

Baserunning

Electric, right? Look at how he takes all those extra bases and does the little things right and … oh he just ran into three outs in a game? Drat.

—–

Flaws and all, fans understandably tend to side with Dee because of the “wow” moments he brings to the table, stuff that guys with less raw talent simply can’t even fathom doing. Dee is made for mind-blowing bursts of speed and flair that lead to extreme excitement, but he often follows that with the lulls of fundamental inadequacy and lack of baseball skills, which is the part people tend to gloss over too easily.

My point? For all that highs and lows so far, his WAR on the year is 0. There’s probably not much more fitting a grade than that.

People fall in love with the explosiveness but tend forget that baseball, for better or worse, is more about the routine and the boring.

For example, Matt Kemp‘s debut was full of flash and flair as well. He bombed seven homers in his first 50 plate appearances, but then got exposed down the stretch due to his lack of refinement. From there, it was the boring things — laying off/hitting hanging breaking balls, working the count, going to right field — that led him to become an MVP-caliber player, not mindlessly hacking and trying to club bombs.

Dee will never get to that level, granted, but at some point we would like to see a hint of progress in the refinement area of his game. Kemp showed that slowly but surely, much like all prospects that pan out do, but the concern is that Dee has been rather stagnant for a while now.

——

Perhaps predictably, articles are being written about how Dee gives this team a “shot in the arm” or a “much needed boost of energy”, but the reality is that’s not the player they need him to be. He’s ALWAYS been the “energy guy”, the “tools guy”, the “flash guy”, even last year, but what the Dodgers need from him more than anything right now is something he’s never been able to accomplish: stability.

The day he gives the team daily consistency over flashy highlights is the day that I’ll buy in, and I think most others will as well. Until then, though, the Dee Gordon experience will likely continue to be a roller-coaster of alternating cheers and facepalms.

Strap in.

Matt Magill, who was rocked in his his last start against the rival Giants, will still be in the rotation come his next turn:

Rookie pitcher Matt Magill, who lasted only 1 1/3 innings in Saturday night’s start, will remain in the rotation for at least one more start Friday night, manager Don Mattingly said Sunday.

The Dodgers could have skipped Magill because of a day off Thursday, but Mattingly said he still had confidence in Magill, who allowed five runs on six hits and four walks to the Giants after allowing only two runs in 6 2/3 innings against the Brewers in his Major League debut last Sunday.

“He’s an easy guy to trust,” said Mattingly. “A kid like him stays calm, he keeps working. He had the same demeanor that he had after his last time out. You get a good feeling with him.”

Confidence is one thing, but it doesn’t necessarily mean that you have to rely on a rookie to get a quality start when it’s not even necessary.

—–

Clayton Kershaw was activated from the Bereavement List following the death of his father, in time to make his scheduled start Friday.

Kershaw was placed on the bereavement list on Monday after his father passed away, to make room for the activation of shortstop Hanley Ramirez from the disabled list. Kershaw last pitched Sunday and is starting Friday night on regular rest. He missed the minimum three games required of placement on the bereavement list.

Somehow he managed to pitch well in his return, but the Dodgers obviously lost on a walk-off.

—–

Hanley Ramirez is injured yet again, suffering a hamstring injury Friday and hitting the DL Saturday, which led to the return of Dee Gordon.

The Dodgers on Saturday decided the hamstring injury suffered by Hanley Ramirez was enough to send him to the disabled list. The Dodgers recalled shortstop Dee Gordon from Triple-A Albuquerque before Saturday’s game, as first reported by Jon Heyman of CBS Sports and Bill Shaikin of the Los Angeles Times. Bob Nightengale reported the Dodgers plan to play Gordon exclusively at shortstop in place of Ramirez.

In 2013, Gordon has hit .314/.397/.431 for Triple-A Albuquerque, with 19 runs scored in 25 games, and has stolen 14 bases in 16 attempts.

Seems fitting considering the way 2013 has begun. A team already struggling to score runs just got worse.

Gordon has shown improved plate discipline in AAA, but the real test will be his defense.

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Greg Zakwin is the founder of the site Plaschke Thy Sweater Is Argyle. Follow him on Twitter @ArgyledPlaschke.

I like Yasiel Puig. I like him a lot, actually. I even ranked him as the top prospect in the Dodgers system for 2013.

However, if you follow me on Twitter, most of what I tweet about him is sort of dismissive. That’s not because I’m not excited about him, but rather because he seems to make people incredibly stupid.

For example, look at the tweets just from the last couple of days replying to Dylan Hernandez when he mentions Puig, and you can find shit like this:

@dylanohernandez bench Kemp and put Puig in

— Ryan Perez(@WreckItRyan) April 7, 2013

@dylanohernandez if only we had an outfield spot or two occupied by sorry ass players (Etheir/Kemp) where Puig could be plugged in to.

— Herbie Verstinks (@HerbieVerstinks) April 7, 2013

Bench Matt Kemp and Andre Ethier after six games in 2013! Sounds like a rational plan!

@dylanohernandez Can he play an infield position?

— Julio Ojeda (@Julio_SportsFan) April 7, 2013

@dylanohernandez try 3B for Puig.

— Monstarr (@rancimo) April 7, 2013

“Can he play positions in the major leagues that he’s never played before and never trained for?!”

I mean … what?

Hanley Ramirez is athletic and talented and has played shortstop in the MLB and MILB forever … and he’s still widely known by most everybody as a horrid defender. Fans can’t stand to watch his slow turns at second base or Dee Gordon throwing the ball away, but Puig? Well shit, he could do it, right? WHY NOT?! How hard could shortstop or third base be?

Ugh.

I would legitimately sooner try Adrian Gonzalez at third. It’s far less dumb.

—–

But those are just four examples and it doesn’t mean anything, right? Yeah, I wish. Feel free to Twitter search for him or just read the replies to mainstream writers whenever his name is brought up. You’ll be amazed by how insane some of the stuff is.

Look, all prospects have promise, and, more than most, I get the excitement. But the Dodgers have had guys who jumped levels and showed flashes of an elite future before, most recently Rubby De La Rosa, but they have never generated anywhere near this type of excitement/delusion.

So while Puig will likely produce in the majors, and he has star upside, what is it exactly about him that makes people lose their goddamn minds? Seriously though, as a meme, it’s entertaining, but people are getting serious about it and I have to implore you to please stop before anything short of a stellar MLB debut/Hall Of Fame career leads to people incessantly booing him … as if he was Kemp after an 0-4 outing in 2013 even after back-to-back .900+ OPS seasons.

The “Yasiel Puig Should Start & Bat Cleanup Movement” took a major but obvious and expected blow Tuesday, as the young Cuban outfielder was optioned to AA Chattanooga.

“I told him he had a great camp. It’s an organizational decision of what we think is best for him, now and in the long term,” said manager Don Mattingly. “We think this guy has a chance to be a really good player. He’s done nothing wrong in our camp, but he can just keep improving.”

Puig is raw and was never going to start the year in The Show unless other viable outfield candidates got hurt and ownership couldn’t throw money around to acquire someone else.

Besides, there’s no reason the Dodgers should rush a guy who’s got limited pro experience with none of that above high-A ball.

“He didn’t seem that happy about it. You don’t really want guys to be happy that they’re being sent out,” Mattingly said. “When we came into camp, this guy wasn’t even on the radar (for this season). He’s had a great camp…. Obviously he’s put himself on the map as far as probably knocking on the door instead of being a couple of years away.”

Puig wasn’t happy, as you would expect.

I’ve said it before, but I’d be surprised if he saw any action this year in the bigs, barring injury.

—–

Dee Gordon was optioned to AAA on Tuesday.

He was an option at short with Hanley Ramirez out a couple of months, but the move mainly serves to strengthen Juan Uribe‘s hold on a 25-man roster spot.

—–

The Dodgers have struck on the international market again, signing 17-year-old righty Bernardo Reyes of Sonora, Mexico.

Additionally, Dylan Hernandez reports the club has signed Jesus Canizales, a 16-year-old righty out of Venezuela.

—–

Mark Lowe, one of the many non-roster invitees in spring camp, has been released.

“He didn’t do anything wrong in camp. We thought he threw the ball good,” said manager Don Mattingly. “There just wasn’t a spot. This gives him a chance to catch on with another club.”

He was a long-shot to make the crowded pen from the jump.

On the minor-league side of things, the Dodgers released Riley Welch, Kazuki Nishijima, Jordan Roberts, Gregory Pena, and Kyle Russell.

Russell is the most interesting name of the bunch, as he’s always had great power, but struck out a ludicrous amount of the time.

Kyle Russell established University of Texas records for both single-season (28) and career (57) home runs, and the ’07 third-rounder ought to have no trouble latching on with another club if he’s healthy. Despite striking out nearly a third of the time at the Double-A level, Russell hit 40 homers in 270 games, posting an isolated slugging percentage of .229.

—–

Matt Eddy of Baseball America provided a glimpse at Dashenko Ricardo, whom the Dodgers recently signed.

Dashenko Ricardo caught eight games for the Netherlands in the World Baseball Classic, going 5-for-22 (.227) at the plate and helping the pitching staff navigate its way to the semifinal round. He threw out 37 percent of basestealers last season in the short-season Northwest League with an arm so strong that the Giants attempted to convert him to pitcher in ’11 after taking him in the minor league Rule 5 draft.

—–

Buster Olney and Ken Rosenthal report that the World Baseball Classic will pay just shy of $4 million of Hanley Ramirez‘s 2013 salary while he recovers from the thumb injury he suffered during WBC play.

The Dodgers will be without Hanley Ramirez for roughly eight weeks as he recovers from surgery to repair a torn ligament in his right thumb. But thanks to a new provision this year, the World Baseball Classic – not the Dodgers – could be on the hook for the nearly $4 million Ramirez is set to earn while on the shelf, per reports by Buster Olney of ESPN and Ken Rosenthal of Fox Sports.

Ramirez is due $15.5 million in 2013, and missing exactly eight weeks after surgery gives him a return date of May 16. Since the 183-day championship season begins on March 31, Ramirez would be on the disabled list in this scenario for 46 days. That means the WBC would be responsible for approximately $3,896,175 of Ramirez’s salary.

The WBC is on the hook because Ramirez will miss more than 30 days.

Gotta love insurance.

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Greg Zakwin is the founder of the site Plaschke Thy Sweater Is Argyle. Follow him on Twitter @ArgyledPlaschke.

Hanley Ramirez needs surgery on his injured right thumb.

Sources: Hanley needs surgery on his right thumb. #Dodgers.

— Ken Rosenthal (@Ken_Rosenthal) March 21, 2013

Lame.

The timetable for Hanley is eight weeks following the surgery, meaning at-best we’re probably looking at mid-May for Hanley’s 2013 debut.

Well … say hello to a starting left side of the infield featuring Luis Cruz and some combination of Juan Uribe, Dee Gordon, Nick Punto, or Skip Schumaker.

Honestly, if those are the only options, I’m going with Uribe – and I can’t believe I’m typing that – as he’s at least excellent with the glove.

—–

Zack Greinke took to the mound Wednesday and reported no pain in his elbow following a four-inning, 43-pitch outing.

“Elbow wasn’t an issue today. I wasn’t worried about it. My arm felt really good and strong but the pitches aren’t 100% crisp yet.” -Greinke

— Los Angeles Dodgers (@Dodgers) March 20, 2013

And here are further details on the outing, including the possibility that he could avoid the DL.

Greinke threw 43 pitches in four scoreless innings, and Mattingly got good reports. He said Greinke was able to use all of his pitches and was sitting around 91-93 mph.

Greinke will next start Monday, and though there is a possibility that the Dodgers may have him throw in a minor league game in order to have the option to back date him on the disabled list, Mattingly hinted that might not be needed.

“We’ll keep playing all the scenarios as we go. The health theory is that we’d like to see him on the front fields. I think he wants to be on the front fields, too,” Mattingly said. “At this point if something flares up it’s probably more than a start anyway, so the DL is not going to matter.”

So he’s either going to be ready for the season from the start or head to the DL and miss multiple starts, depending on how the rest of Spring Training goes for him.

The Dodgers will need Greinke at 100% for as much of the season as possible, so caution would be the way to go here.

—–

Chad Billingsley threw a bullpen session Wednesday – minus his curve – and reported feeling no pain in his elbow, groin, and finger.

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Greg Zakwin is the founder of the site Plaschke Thy Sweater Is Argyle. Follow him on Twitter @ArgyledPlaschke.

Dodgers designated hitter third baseman first baseman shortstop Hanley Ramirez jammed his right thumb while diving for a groundball in the World Baseball Classic and he’ll get an MRI today at the Camelback Ranch.

His WBC manager and general manager gave differing takes on the severity of it.

“I don’t think it’s bad,” Dominican coach Alfredo Griffin said.

Ramirez, playing third base for the Dominican, jammed the thumb while diving for a ground ball in the third inning. He remained in the game, even delivering a single in the fourth inning, but left after five innings.

Ramirez declined comment through a team spokesman. Dominican Manager Tony Pena said he removed Ramirez for precautionary reasons, even though Ramirez told Pena he could have gone on.

So Tony Pena didn’t think it was bad, but it’s odd to me that Hanley declined comment on it if he wasn’t worried, and maybe it’s because he is a bit, as Moises Alou sounded.

“Hanley, he jammed his thumb when he dove for that ball,” Alou said after the Dominican Republic ran off eight consecutive wins to go undefeated and win the Classic for the first time. “It was pretty swollen. He’s going to have an MRI on it [Wednesday] in Arizona.”

I guess there are differing versions of ‘serious’ at play here.

Just recently, Stan Conte spoke and although he hasn’t had an MRI yet, they’ve already ruled Hanley out for a couple weeks.

Director of medical services Stan Conte spoke with the doctor at AT&T Park, and team trainer Sue Falsone was in contact with Ramirez on Tuesday night. Both relayed their information to manager Don Mattingly.

“They painted both pictures. The optimistic side is that he had another at-bat and it’s just a sprain and it could be a couple of weeks,” Mattingly said. “The pessimistic side is that it could be something major and he’s out 8-10 weeks.”

So he’s going to miss time, regardless, and they’re obviously worried. If he misses two months of the regular season … welcome Juan Uribe.

—–

Zack Greinke threw a bullpen session on Sunday and reported no pain in his right elbow, which had been bothering him recently and been diagnosed as inflamed.

“I guess I could have something, but I’m assuming it’s going to fine to be on track to do whatever, but I don’t know for sure,” Greinke said.

“I probably threw a little more (than expected). I felt good. I was working on stuff, and trying to make sure I’m ready for a game,” Greinke said. “I’m just trying to get ready. I don’t think about it as a rehab.”

“I’m just doing what’s laid out, to give us the best chance. On our team we have other starting pitchers, and we have to be ready. They’re going to weigh all that in,” Greinke said. “I just want to do what’s best for the team. It’s not important what day [I make my first start of the season].”

It’s encouraging to see Greinke make it through a session without pain, and he’ll start a minor-league affair today with a strict pitch count in place. A.J. Ellis will catch Greinke instead of suiting up with the rest of the squad.

Manager Don Mattingly said that Greinke will pitch in a Minor League game in the afternoon, with A.J. Ellis staying back to catch instead of playing in the Dodgers’ Cactus League game against Kansas City.

The team should not feel rushed to get him back by Opening Day if he needs an extra week or two to get healthy for a long, long, long season.

—–

Chad Billingsley‘s elbow has held up all Spring Training, but unfortunately he hasn’t escaped the injury bug as a sore groin is now accompanied by a bruised index finger on his pitching hand.

The finger forced Bills out of his scheduled outing.

“I’m just taking it day by day, seeing how I feel,” Billingsley said. “I’m still playing catch, but the command is just not there because it’s bruised and swollen.”

“(We’re not) trying to force him into this one. We’re concerned about the finger from the standpoint of changing a grip, then not having a grip pressure then changing an arm angle. With everything that has gone on, we really don’t want that,” Mattingly said. “The one thing with Bills, we want to make sure he’s able to throw.”

Glad to see Don Mattingly and his staff aren’t putting pressure on Chad to tough it out and are cognizant of the fact that doing so could lead to a change in mechanics.

But how did Billingsley injure himself, you might ask?

Bunting.

Yes, Matt, bunting.

Billingsley was scratched from Wednesday’s scheduled outing due to the finger. He’s scheduled for a bullpen session instead, and game action on Saturday.

—–

Carl Crawford, who has been dealing with elbow issues during Spring Training, saw improvement Monday in his ability to swing the bat and throw the ball.

“It’s good to see him get a couple of hits, which makes him feel better and more part of it. But even better today for me was him throwing, and Stan (Conte, team director of medical services) working with him on the cuts,” Mattingly said. “He had a lot on the ball. That was really positive today.”

“I’m throwing a little bit harder at (75-80) feet,” Crawford said. “At some point the goal is to be able to hit the cut off man, I’m not sure how many feet that is but that’s the goal.”

Once Crawford can hit the cutoff man, he’ll be cleared by the staff to play left field. Until such an event actually occurs, Carl will continue to DH.

It’s great that there’s no serious issue at play here, but the quotes on his throwing aren’t exactly glowing.

Though Crawford has also made progress throwing, it seems that won’t return until the regular season. But as long as Crawford is ready with the bat, that will determine when he’s ready.

“I don’t think he’s going to be 100% (throwing). When I asked Stan (Conte, director of medical services) when is he ready to really throw and he said, ‘May.’ So it’s going to be a work in progress,” Mattingly said. “But we’re building to a point where we’re comfortable with him being out there. We’re feeling good about everything about Carl right now.”

I couldn’t imagine a worse-throwing outfielder than Juan Pierre, but it looks like we might see it.

—–

Josh Beckett has the flu, which I can only imagine he caught from Ted Lilly.

Regardless, Beckett did start a simulated game against three minor-leaguers and Jerry Hairston Jr..

“Everything went good,” manager Don Mattingly reported. “He got better as the game went on. He was happy about being able to get it in. He was worried that if he did it in a [Cactus League] game and he had a long inning, he wouldn’t get his pitch count up and the up-and-downs. He seemed to be happy with it.”

Beckett threw 76 pitches and went through the up-and-down of six innings, pitching and resting in between.

Beckett’s had an excellent spring, so hopefully he won’t miss too much time – he’s been under the weather two days thus far – as he looks to carry his exhibition success into the meaningful regular season.

—–

Chris Withrow, who had been out with back spasms all Spring Training, returned briefly only to be injured by a liner off the shin.

Withrow escaped with a bruise from the Paul Goldschmidt shot, and he said he expects to be back in action in a couple of days.

“It’s been a pretty adventurous spring,” said Withrow. “I came in ready to go. For my back to go out the second day was kind of frustrating. Then the second batter, after seven months off, that’s not ideal either. Things happen for a reason.”

The guy just can’t seem to stay healthy, even when it comes to living life off the field, as a recent close-call indicates.

Things were adventurous for Withrow even before Spring Training started. He and his wife survived an offseason rollover auto accident with only minor injuries.

Hopefully he can find some good health in his future, as you can never have enough live arms with strikeout stuff.

—–

Dee Gordon is day-to-day after slightly spraining his ankle in a collision at home, according to Don Mattingly.

The shortstop walked off the field and back to the clubhouse on his own, and the injury isn’t believed to be serious.

Chad provided us with visual proof of Gordon attempting to run over (?) Miguel Montero on an overall laughable play.

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Greg Zakwin is the founder of the site Plaschke Thy Sweater Is Argyle. Follow him on Twitter @ArgyledPlaschke.

Why hasn’t Dee Gordon emerged as a useful MLB player yet, right?

Well one play from yesterday’s game sort of summed up why he’s having so much difficulty.

On a clean single to left-center from Carl Crawford (yes, really), Dee freezes like it’s hit to the shortstop or something, then completely turns his left shoulder to look at the ball and identify the center fielder, which is something the runner should be doing before the pitch is thrown.

Thanks to the combination of his late jump and outstanding speed though, he’s sent home and is basically dead to rights at the plate, when he does whatever this is:

A hilarious, bumbling tackle/slide/dive fall into Miguel Montero‘s glove somehow works, and he gets the Dodgers a run.

Notice how after the fact he just lies there prone without touching the plate until Elian Herrera yells at him and points out that hey, maybe he should touch home.

The intangibles are off the charts, folks.

—–

All jokes aside, that’s Dee Gordon in a nutshell.

His tools allow him to be sent in the first place and give us a glimpse into the 3-4 WAR potential player that scouts see (used to see?), while his lack of awareness and knowledge (of the rules?) on the play show why he’s a -2 WAR player in reality.

On the plus side, Gordon has a .405 OBP this spring, with eight walks and five strikeouts, plus seven stolen bases against no caught stealings. On the negative side, he’s hitting .241 with a .241 slugging for a grand OPS of .647.

Not that it really matters anyway, since he went .379/.446/.485/.931 last Spring Training, making the conversation before the 2012 season primarily about how many All-Star teams he was gonna make, not whether he can ever have any utility in the MLB like it is now.

Baseball fans love to talk about clutch plays and clutch players, and Dodgers fans are no exception, but like with a pitcher’s best and worst pitches, there tends to be a lack of evidence presented. As such, I decided to find some basis for clutch plays and clutch players, courtesy of the WPA and Clutch statistics.

WPA

Most sabermetric statistics are context neutral — they do not consider the situation of a particular event or how some plays are more crucial to a win than others. While wOBA rates all home runs as equal, we know intuitively that a home run in the third inning of a blowout is less important to that win than a home run in the bottom of the ninth inning of a close game. Win Probability Added (WPA) captures this difference by measuring how individual players affect their team’s win expectancy on a per-play basis.

Clutch

In the words of David Appelman, this calculation measures, “…how much better or worse a player does in high leverage situations than he would have done in a context neutral environment.” It also compares a player against himself, so a player who hits .300 in high leverage situations when he’s an overall .300 hitter is not considered clutch.

So that’s the foundation for this post, and since that’s now been established, let’s get on with it, shall we?

As always, visuals have been provided because, let’s be honest, everything is better with visuals.

—–

I feel like it’s necessary to point out that none of this is predictive of the future or telling of the past. It’s a post about stuff that happened in 2012. That’s all.

In other words, please don’t link back to this while saying, “LOOK! THIS DUDE IS SO CLUTCH, BRO!” No.

—–

Top Five Clutchiest McClutchington Hits Of 2012

1. Adrian Gonzalez – +69.9%

Whenever you increase your team’s chances of winning by 69.9% with one swing of the bat, something must have gone right.

Well, it did.

It was the bottom of the ninth with one out and runners on first and second. The Dodgers trailed the Diamondbacks by a score of 4-3.

Down to his last strike, A-Gon comes up gigantic with a walk-off double down the right field line off J.J. Putz.

2. Ivan De Jesus – 67.3%

THANK YOU J.J. PUTZ XOXOXO HUGS AND KISSES

Trailing 7-6 with runners on first and second and down to their last out, feeble hitting Ivan De Jesus came up and whacked a double over Chris Young‘s head in center to take the lead.

Much love to J.J. Putz.

3. Scott Van Slyke – 61.1%

Early in 2012, the season was full of “yeah, this team is winning the World Series if this kinda shit happens” moments, and this was certainly one of them.

Scott Van Slyke hit a three-run bomb with runners on first and second to give the Dodgers a 6-5 lead after they trailed 5-3 with two outs in the bottom of the seventh inning.

Even though it was only the seventh, it felt like a gigantic moment, right? WPA agrees.

4. Elian Herrera – 51.6%

So it’s the top of the eighth with two outs, the Dodgers trail 1-0 and Cliff Lee is just absolutely taking a dump down their throats, and, I mean, there’s runners on first and second but Elian Herrera or whoever is up, so it’s inning ove … HOLY SHIT! YES!!!

Shoutout to Juan Pierre.

5. Luis Cruz – 50.7%

Bottom of the sixth, two outs, runners on first and second (this is a theme), Dodgers trail the Cardinals 4-3, but 2012 phenom Luis Cruz is up and he absolutely bombs one into the bullpen to put the Dodgers up by two.

Bonus points for pimping it.

—–

Overall, the fact that there are five different players contributing here, and that four of the five are still basically unknowns to casual fans, speaks to how remarkable it was that the 2012 Dodgers even stayed in the playoff hunt throughout all the injuries and what not.

—–

Top Five Clutchiest Dodgers Of 2012 – Field Player Division

1. Dee Gordon – 1.05
2. Elian Herrera – 0.93
3. Luis Cruz – 0.84
4. Juan Uribe – 0.77
5. Adrian Gonzalez – 0.72

The 2013 projection for the Dodgers from Dan Szymborski‘s ZiPS system was released last week, and given that it’s probably my favorite forecasting tool, it’s worth a look to see how the team fared.

Forecasting is not a complete science, obviously, and I’ll address some of the potential pitfalls as we go along, but it’s better to use objective tools like these than the hopes/dreams of fans or the bitterness/wishes of haters.

To start us off, how does the team fare, generally speaking? A solid playoff contender, for sure, but a super team? Doesn’t seem likely.

—–

The Field Players

Despite all the hype over the recent acquisitions, the key cogs in this machine are still Clayton Kershaw and Matt Kemp. It’s a promising sign then, that Kemp projects at a 144 OPS+ and the system has confidence in him continuing to put up offensive numbers in the ~.900 OPS range. His defense in center still lags below average, but his bat more than makes up for it. His playing time projection has dropped due to his injury woes last season, and quite frankly, it’s hard to fault it for that. Regardless, he still figures to be the most valuable field player on the team.

Adrian Gonzalez is slated to be another bright spot, as ZiPS pegs him to bounceback a bit, though not as much as some want, clocking in at an ~.830 OPS/128 OPS+. That would still be his lowest OPS+ since 2008 (besides 2012, of course), but it’s a marked improvement considering his age and negatively trending skills. A-Gon compensates for that lagging bat a bit by putting up plus defense almost worth a win by itself. Hanley Ramirez factors in as yet another bounceback candidate, projecting at a 115 OPS+, which is an upgrade over last year’s 106 and is closer to his pre-2011 production. Defensively, even his horribad -8 run defensive rating is optimistic to me, as he was truly terrible with the glove last year. Given that I already wanted to barf seeing him trying to turn a double play in 2012, I wouldn’t be surprised at all to see him put up horrid defensive numbers after basically not playing the position all of spring.

Unfortunately, that’s where a lot of the offensive optimism ends. Luis Cruz checks in at 84 OPS+ (106 last year), which will anger many fans, but is completely reasonable given the track record. He remains valuable through plus defense, though given the sample size, there’s reason to be skeptical there as well. A.J. Ellis at 96 OPS+ (118) is another depressing but completely logical projection, as evidenced by everybody’s surprise in 2012 at his potent bat. Andre Ethier at 112 OPS+ (123) is hard to figure for me, because he has been consistently putting up ~120 OPS+ seasons even if it has come down from the ~130 OPS+ range two years ago. I suppose the projection system thinks he’ll get old in a hurry … or maybe it just thinks he’ll face an inordinately high amount of lefties. Mark Ellis at 81 OPS+ (93) shouldn’t be much of a surprise considering he’s 36 and put up an 80 OPS+ at Coors Field in 2011.

The last guy of the starters is Carl Crawford, who is the enigma of the 2013 season. He checks in at 104, which is notable because it’s basically his career OPS+ and it’s about what he did in limited time in 2012 over in Boston. That’s of particular note for me, because what he did in Boston in 2012 can be attributed to a mechanical fix that I pointed out in an article for Baseball Prospectus. Understandably, his playing time checks in low, but if he can produce like he did in 2012 but over a whole season, the Dodgers will be much better for it.

Overall, after fixing the playing time of A.J., adjusting Ethier’s offense up a bit, and adjusting Hanley’s defense down a bit, the starting lineup totaled about 22 WAR.

—–

The Bench & The Prospects

Assuming a bench of Tim Federowicz, Scott Van Slyke or Alex Castellanos, Jerry Hairston Jr., Nick Punto, and Skip Schumaker, we’re looking at around 3 WAR here after playing time is adjusted back to realistic bench levels. I’m guessing Alfredo Amezaga or Tony Gwynn Jr. work their way in somehow, but a five-man bench seems likely initially if the Dodgers can’t deal multiple pitchers before the season starts. Neither player would affect the WAR projection much though.

Honestly? I have to hope the Dodgers do something to improve the bench, because the current configuration looks rather mediocre, and the other options are keeping Juan Uribe and/or Elian Herrera. Yuck.

The good news is that Joc Pederson, T-Fed, SVS, and Castle are projected to be solid at the MLB level, though it sees Dee Gordon basically languishing behind.

—–

The Rotation

Clayton Kershaw is simply a beast, and he figures to check in with a 75 FIP-. This might seem high considering his 2011 and 2012 ERA- figures of 63 and 67, respectively, but when you consider that Felix Hernandez clocks in at 78 FIP- for 2013, you get the picture.

What might surprise is how close new acquisition Zack Greinke comes in behind him, as he figures to put up an FIP- of 81. Granted, he has always projected favorably, as his career FIP- is 80, while his career ERA- is 88, but even adjusting slightly for that, there’s a definite case there for the best 1-2 punch in the majors.

Unfortunately, this is where it gets murky, as Chad Billingsley has the stuff to be the #3, but if I were a betting man, I would bet his elbow implodes before July. He projects at 92 FIP-, which would put him around last year’s performance, which was his arguably his best season since 2008. However, given the nature of his injury and its history in the league, you can basically never rely on him to stay healthy again until he has Tommy John surgery.

Next in the pecking order are Josh Beckett, who comes in below-average at 103, and foreign import Hyun Jin Ryu, who comes in well below-average at 116. As mentioned before, the scouting reports for Beckett match this projection, as he’s no longer a front-line starter due to his decrease in velocity. However, if he can manage to learn to pitch a bit more, he still has the curve to perhaps slot in as a #3 more than a #4. Ryu is a case where I would take any projection with a mound of salt, because there’s hardly anything to base objective projections on. Personally, I don’t think Ryu has the stuff to be a #2, nor do I think he’ll be a #3 on a team with a $250 million payroll, but he should slot in comfortably in the back-end of the rotation for years. I would project something slightly below-average for 2013 and then hope for better.

The rotation is a strong point because it has both arguably the best 1-2 punch in the majors and depth, with Chris Capuano (108 FIP-) and Aaron Harang (114 FIP) presumably traded for upgrades (or maybe kept somehow?), and it checks in at about 17 WAR.

—–

The Bullpen & The Prospects

As of right now, I’m assuming a bullpen of Brandon League, Kenley Jansen, Ronald Belisario, Javy Guerra, Matt Guerrier, J.P. Howell, and Ted Lilly.

Jansen is the best of the bunch (63 FIP-) and League projects a distant second (92 FIP-), but Belisario has the most upside in these projections (101 FIP-). After that, Guerra, Guerrier, and Howell are all around replacement level. Lilly projects as a league-average pitcher, assuming he’s healthy, which would be a boon to a team that has a ticking time bomb in the rotation.

As far as prospects go, ZiPS thinks Chris Reed could be a replacement-level fill-in right now, but Zach Lee, Matt Magill, and Garrett Gould need more seasoning. And for all of you who have Stephen Fife wet dreams (yes, you’re out there), he projects at a 4.91 FIP, so keep it in your pants.

Speaking of replacement level, that especially applies to the Dodgers bullpen because of Shawn Tolleson, Scott Elbert, Steven Ames, and Paco Rodriguez, so the 4 WAR projection for this pen figures to be solid.

—–

Team Projection

A replacement-level team figures to win 43 games, and the team with the lowest amount of wins to get into the playoffs last year was the Cardinals at 88 wins, so 42 WAR puts you in the contender range and 45 WAR makes you viable, while 50 WAR will generally make a team a safe bet to be in the postseason. The Dodgers total 46 WAR, which puts them well within the playoff hunt: good but not great.

The Dodgers basically project neck-and-neck with the rival Giants, while the D-Backs lag behind a bit by maybe a half dozen wins or so, but they’re well within striking distance as well.

So make no mistake, the Dodgers recent spending habits did not make them an elite team, as the money simply duct-taped over both a flawed team and farm system depleted by Frank McCourt‘s ownership and Ned Colletti‘s questionable decisions. But that’s not to denigrate the job the new owners have done, as they turned the franchise into a legitimate playoff contender seemingly overnight, which is still saying a lot about what money can do.

Granted, “we gave you a team that has the chance to make the playoffs” is not what fans want to hear, but it’s an acceptable scenario as they lay the foundation to rebuild the franchise the correct way in their own minds. The 2013 projections might not reflect world-beaters like most seem to expect, but it’s a projection based on historical trends rather than hopes and dreams.

The 2013 Dodgers are indeed a team with a lot of upside, and if everything breaks correctly, they could very well end up being one of the best teams in the league, but they also carry a ton of inherent age and injury risk, which is why the projections come in understandably conservative. Either way, if nothing else, this team figures to be never boring.

The Dodgers have talked about moving Dee Gordon off shortstop and into the outfield, according to Dylan Hernandez.

The Dodgers have talked about moving the fleet-footed Gordon to the outfield but appear inclined to keep him at shortstop for now. Gordon figures to start the season at triple-A Albuquerque.

“I hate to give up on him at short,” Mattingly said.

Dylan sort of snuck that tidbit in there, but it’s interesting information because teams that were rumored to be interested in trading for him had the same idea.

At the time, while analyzing those deals, I briefly touched on why I thought moving him would be a bad idea:

I’m not seeing the upside in moving him to the outfield. The potential for him to be an MLB regular contributor came with the value of him playing shortstop, where his bat could be decidedly below average but he could still have value. In center or, even worse, left or right, he would basically be relegated to the upside of a poor man’s Juan Pierre. Say what you want about Pierre, but Gordon’s talent with the bat isn’t anywhere close to Pierre’s right now, and I’m not sure it’ll ever get there.

The general point still stands now.

In recent memory, the only player I can think of that made the same transition that Dee is attempting is B.J. Upton, and while he perhaps hasn’t lived up to the lofty expectations some had for him, he’s absolutely been a consistent 3-4 WAR player. They both share the traits of being toolsy, error-prone shortstops, so the move seems to make some sense for Dee defensively. Of course, the difference is that B.J. has a 107 wRC+ in his MLB career, whereas the last time Dee has topped 97 wRC+ in the minors was back in 2009 at A-ball. Hence, I have a general skepticism about this outfield move unless Dee’s bat can improve significantly.

Rather than unrealistically projecting a 125-175 point jump in OPS, perhaps a better goal would be to look at a Juan Pierre-esque performance offensively, right? Well, if that’s the case, then Dee has the tall task of needing to become an elite center fielder. In order to be a league-average regular (~2.0 WAR), he would have to be about a +10 run defender in center, and that’s assuming a bounceback offensively to an OPS around .630 or so. The problem with that goal is only two or three players are at that level in center field, so it’s a long-shot since he’s already 25, and learning a new position isn’t as simple as being fast and athletic.

While it’s conceivable that Dee could start hitting significantly better or excel defensively in center (or some combination of the two), adding even more moving parts to his already multi-faceted struggles hardly seems like a viable solution to his woes. After all, B.J. moved off short to mask a deficiency in one part of his game, while Dee has to fix basically everything. As such, the best bet for the Dodgers figures to be hoping that he hits like Juan Pierre at short and learns to use his defensive tools to become around average. It may be a long-shot at this point, but it’s still a better shot than he would have roaming the outfield.

The Dodgers have sent a lot of guys to play in winter ball following the conclusion of the Arizona Fall League. They are well represented in the Caribbean Winter Leagues and it’s nice to see some guys getting consistent playing time.

—–

Dominican Winter League

Geison Aguasviva has a 7.71 ERA in 2 1/3 innings.

Juan Abreu has thrown 6 2/3 innings, allowed 6 hits, two runs, two earned runs (2.70 ERA), six walks, and struck out five.

Wilkin Castro is 22-for-98 (.224) with a home run and nine walks.

Brian Cavazos-Galvez is 8-for-33 (.242). He’s not doing much down there.

Kelvin De La Cruz (your guess is as good as mine) has thrown 14 1/3 innings, allowed 16 hits, nine runs, seven earned runs (3.91 ERA), six walks, and has struck out 19. He’s a 6’5″ left-hander from the Dominican Republic.

Jose Dominguez was just added to the roster. He’s given up one hit and struck out two in 2/3 of an inning. Still throwing hard despite his suspension.

Tim Federowicz hasn’t played since Nov. 10. Only concerning because he’s on pace to be the team’s backup and could use the playing time.

Dee Gordon finished his winter league season by hitting .269/.350/.407/.757 with 11 walks in 108 at-bats. He had six triples, but was just 9-for-15 in stolen base attempts.

Elian Herrera is 20-for-86 (.233) with five doubles and 12 walks.

Luis Vazquez has thrown 12 2/3 innings, allowed up 10 hits, four runs, three earned runs (2.13 ERA), and struck out 13. The blemish: he’s given up 12 walks.

Rafael Ynoa is 4-for-18 (.222) with a home run. He’s basically been playing baseball since March, so it’s safe to say he’s running out of gas.

—–

Venezuelan Winter League

Blake Johnson finished his season with a 0.69 ERA. He allowed eight hits, three runs, one earned run, one walk, and struck out four in 13 innings.

Miguel Sulbaran has a 2.45 ERA in 3 2/3 innings. The 18-year-old has allowed five hits, one run, two walks, and two strikeouts.

C.J. Retherford has a .299/.392/.485 triple-slash with seven home runs, 15 doubles, and 30 walks.

—–

Mexican Winter League

Jesus Alberto Arredondo has a .214/.299/.257 triple-slash with five doubles, 28 walks, and 13 stolen bases.

Juan Noriega has thrown 23 2/3 innings, allowed 29 hits, 11 runs, 10 earned runs, eight walks, and struck out 16.

Francisco Villa has allowed six hits, two runs, no earned runs, three walks, and struck out five in six innings.

—–

Puerto Rican Winter League

Freddie Cabrera has thrown 17 innings, allowed 26 hits, seven runs, six earned runs, five walks, and struck out eight.

Onelki Garcia has thrown 10 1/3 innings, allowed 15 hits, five runs, five earned runs (4.35 ERA), three walks, and struck out nine. It’s just nice to see him getting some work.

Jarret Martin hasn’t pitched since Nov. 17.

Osvaldo Martinez is 25-for-96 (.291) with five doubles and a triple.

Aaron Miller made his debut on Saturday. He went two innings, allowed three hits, three runs, two earned runs, two walks, and struck out two.

Andres Santiago has given up three hits, two runs, one earned run (3.00 ERA), one walk, and struck out one in two innings.

Yasiel Puig is 9-for-33 (.273) with a home run, seven RBI, and an ugly 1/13 BB:K ratio. He missed about 10 days with a knee injury.

=====

Dustin Nosler is the founder of the site Feelin’ Kinda Blue. He also co-hosts the weekly podcast Dugout Blues. Follow him on Twitter @FeelinKindaBlue or like his site on Facebook.

Yes, this is the final installment of the 2012 Season Review for the Dodgers, and if you want to catch up on the others, then you can check out this tag here.

Otherwise, in the tables listed below, I have calculated the WAR (along with its components), value, and surplus value of every player on the Dodgers payroll in 2012.

It’s not meant to be taken literally (“A.J. Ellis is a better player than Matt Kemp!“), but I always learn stuff about the team that I hadn’t previously realized when I do it.

—–

The three best players on the Dodgers, according to WAR, were A.J. Ellis, Matt Kemp, and Andre Ethier, in order. The most valuable players, according to surplus value, were A.J. Ellis, Luis Cruz, and Mark Ellis.

Best hitters? Kemp, Ethier, and A.J. Ellis. Best baserunners? Dee Gordon, Shane Victorino, and Hanley Ramirez. Best fielders? Mark Ellis, Jerry Hairston Jr., and Cruz.

The three worst players on the Dodgers, according to WAR, were Gordon, Juan Rivera, and Alex Castellanos. The least valuable players, according to surplus value (excluding dead money), were Juan Uribe, James Loney, and Rivera.

Worst hitters? Gordon, Tony Gwynn Jr., and Uribe. Worst baserunners? A.J. Ellis, Adrian Gonzalez, and Matt Treanor. Worst fielders? Gordon, Kemp, Ramirez.

In related news, did you realize the Dodgers are STILL paying Juan Pierre? Good grief.

The three best pitchers on the Dodgers, according to WAR, were Clayton Kershaw, Chad Billingsley, and Chris Capuano, in order. The most valuable pitchers, according to surplus value, were Kershaw, Kenley Jansen, and Capuano.

The three worst pitchers on the Dodgers, according to WAR, were John Ely, Matt Guerrier, and Mike MacDougal. The least valuable players, according to surplus value (excluding dead money), were Ted Lilly, Guerrier, and Ely.

In related news, you can see why the Dodgers want to upgrade their rotation, as the team defense was decidedly average, but the staff RA WAR outperformed their FIP WAR by six wins.

—–

If there are any questions, let me know below.

The tide has shifted completely in the Zack Greinke sweepstakes with sources now almost universally agreeing that the Rangers are the favorites.

Ken Rosenthal and Jon Paul Morosi speculate that their push for Justin Upton is born out of confidence regarding Greinke.

The Rangers’ fervent push for Upton, according to one rival executive, is an indication of their confidence in landing Greinke, who also is being pursued by the Los Angeles Dodgers.

Later, on Twitter, Rosenthal said that the Dodgers are considering pulling out of Greinke negotiations all together.

Mark Saxon got quotes from Ned Colletti expressing pessimism.

Asked if he was on the “doorstep” of acquiring Greinke, Dodgers general manager Ned Colletti said: “We’re not on the front lawn. … We’re barely out of the car at the curb. It’s better than driving around the neighborhood looking for the house. We know where the house is located. We just can’t seem to get out of the car.”

The Dodgers began negotiations with Greinke’s agent, Casey Close, in Nashville, but it doesn’t appear that they have made a formal offer to this point. Speculation is that Greinke could command a record deal for a right-hander — in the six-year, $150 million range.

Given the Dodgers’ deep pockets, it’s unlikely they would be outbid for Greinke, so it’s possible he prefers to pitch in another city. Reports indicated he was leaning toward the Texas Rangers.

Jon Heyman relays much of the same sentiment.

Dodgers people have begun to sound a bit less optimistic within the last day or so about their pursuit of star free-agent pitcher Zack Greinke. And although there’s no evidence anything is close or decided in Texas’ favor, a couple of Dodgers people even suggested that they are beginning to wonder whether Greinke may simply prefer the Rangers.

Just piling on at this point, Jim Bowden says Greinke is impressed with the Rangers organization.

A source has told me that Greinke was blown away by Nolan Ryan and Rangers Front Office..loves the ML team, prospects and chances to Win WS

So yeah, it’s safe to say that the momentum has shifted from the Dodgers to the Rangers for whatever reason, but whether this remains legit or is being fed to the press in order to drive up prices, or whatever else, is still unknown.

Like many of you, I’m just getting tired of the saga already because it holds up all of free agency, but then again, nobody said the rest have to wait for Greinke. He’s free to do things at his own pace if he so chooses, especially considering that he’s looking at committing the next 6 to 8 years of his life to a location.

—–

The suitors for Dee Gordon now total four, with the Braves and the Phillies now apparently in as well, according to Jayson Stark.

#Indians, #Mariners, #Braves & #Phillies among teams I heard asked #Dodgers about Dee Gordon. It appears all but Seat would try him in OF.

Not seeing what the return would be from those teams, so there must be other things at work in the background here if this trade were to happen.

Honestly though, I’m not seeing the upside in moving him to the outfield. The potential for him to be an MLB regular contributor came with the value of him playing shortstop, where his bat could be decidedly below average but he could still have value. In center or, even worse, left or right, he would basically be relegated to the upside of a poor man’s Juan Pierre. Say what you want about Pierre, but Gordon’s talent with the bat isn’t anywhere close to Pierre’s right now, and I’m not sure it’ll ever get there.

—–

Confirming a previous rumor, it was reiterated that the Dodgers have interest in Skip Schumaker.

The Dodgers and Twins are among the teams that have some level of interest in Cardinals bench player Skip Schumaker, Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reports.

I gave my thoughts on him the first time his name came up.

Credit: The LFP

The Zack Greinke saga is the story of the Winter Meetings, not only because he’s the top free agent out there, but also because he’s holding up the deals of other free agents, as they’re all waiting on him.

Whatever he decides, it figures to be at least borderline historical, as Jon Heyman notes.

Strong belief by people close to situation is greinke can beat cc sabathia $161M record deal if desires. #dodgers #rangers

But who’s in the lead now? Jayson Stark says the talk revolves around the Rangers…

The big buzz this morning at the winter meetings is: Watch out for Texas on Zack Greinke.

…and Joel Sherman gives a potential reason why Greinke might be leaning that way.

Told Greinke’s wife is former Dall #Cowboys cheerleader and could influence desire get back to Tex. score1 for #Rangers

The Nationals are out of the sweepstakes thanks to their Dan Haren acquisition, and the Angels are assumed to be out of it as well due to price concerns, according to Danny Knobler.

With Greinke bidding heading to $160 million and perhaps beyond, one Angels person said: “That’s going to blow us out of the water.”

Additionally, they just added Joe Blanton to their rotation.

Ken Gurnick reports that Greinke’s personal fingerprints appear to be all over the negotiations.

The speculation is that Greinke, and not Close, is orchestrating the leisurely pace of negotiations, which has log-jammed the free-agent market for pitchers. The 29-year-old Greinke could wind up with a contract bigger than CC Sabathia’s record for a pitcher of seven years and $161 million.

Reading between the lines a little, this could mean that the money is close enough where it boils down to personal matters, which could lead him to stray away from the Dodgers and the most money. It could also be the reason Josh Hamilton to the Mariners talks have picked up, as his agent might sense the Rangers will be out of the market for him.

Hopefully not, but the reports yesterday certainly weren’t as optimistic for the team as the day before.

—–

Those Dee Gordon rumors from yesterday? Well apparently they have some legs, and Jon Paul Morosi/Ken Rosenthal report that the Indians are in.

I looked at the Mariners roster yesterday to find a potential fit in a trade, but for the Indians I don’t see a clear-cut fit for the Dodgers current roster. I’m hoping it doesn’t involve Ubaldo Jimenez.

—–

As for Hyun Jin Ryu, yesterday was just a continuation of the day before.

Nor would Colletti say if he felt he was closer to a deal for Korean free-agent pitcher Ryu Hyun-jin.

“I just feel closer to Sunday,” Colletti said, because at 2 p.m. PT Sunday the Dodgers must either have a deal with Ryu or he returns to Korea.

Oddly enough, I think Jim Bowden‘s thoughts most accurately reflects reality.

Dodgers not worried about negotiations w Ryu… they know Boras style & will wait until Sunday Deadline to bear down with him & get it done

— JIM BOWDEN (@JimBowdenESPNxm) December 6, 2012

Though I would be lying if I said I didn’t cringe when Scott Boras started comparing him and his impending contract to Daisuke Matsuzaka.

“We have standards that all of us agree the guy is a No. 3 starter in the Major Leagues,” Boras said Wednesday. “And past practices, negotiations that we’ve done for [Daisuke] Matsuzaka, at that time Matsuzaka got paid [$52 million, six years] like he was a No. 3 pitcher in the big leagues. We think very highly of Ryu.

Why?

1) Expecting that contract is ridiculous to me.

2) Why would he ever want to associate an Asian pitcher’s potential career with that of Daisuke Matsuzaka?

—–

The Dodgers do need a lefty reliever in the pen for next year, and with Randy Choate now off the board, Mike Petriello brings up Matt Thornton‘s name.

With LH RP dropping off the board, #Dodgers will probably need to get one via trade. One rumored possibility: Matt Thornton of Chicago.

Would have loved this idea three or four years ago, but he’s now on a three-year negative trend, is going to be 36, and his stuff diminishing is becoming an annual event.

Still a better option than signing Choate for three years, but not exactly a guy you want to give up meaningful assets to acquire.

The Dodgers made an offer to Hyun Jin Ryu, but it was rejected by Scott Boras, according to Ned Colletti.

The Dodgers made a long-term offer to Korean pitcher Ryu Hyun-jin on Tuesday, but it was rejected by agent Scott Boras.

“Predictably, it fell a tad short,” said general manager Ned Colletti.

The Dodgers have until Sunday to sign Ryu or they lose exclusive negotiating rights and their $25.7 million posting fee is refunded.

“We’re debating our next step,” said Colletti. “I don’t believe we’re close right now.”

As I said yesterday, I still think this is all posturing by both sides to get the best deal possible.

For his part, Boras later clarified the situation to Dylan Hernandez.

[Updated at 5:35 p.m.: Ryu's agent, Scott Boras, said he presented the Dodgers with a counteroffer. "We exchanged offers, and negotiations continue," Boras said.]

Boras, said his client should be compensated like a major league No. 3 starter. So, presumably, he’s looking for something in the $50-million range. [Updated at 9:45 p.m.: This estimate was high, according to a person familiar with the discussions.]

The reasons for the Dodgers wanting to wait should be obvious, because if they sign Zack Greinke and trade for James Shields or something of the sort, then their leverage in negotiations with Ryu becomes extremely one-sided.

For now? Just have to wait it out.

—–

Speaking of Greinke, the Dodgers and Rangers are apparently in a bidding war of sorts, according to Jon Heyman.

The Dodgers have been viewed as a fairly clear favorite for Greinke, but Texas is showing signs of determination, according to major-league sources.

The Dodgers are seen as having an almost unlimited payroll, but people familiar with the happenings now suggest the derby could go either way. Not many teams could hope to go dollar-for-dollar against the Dodgers, but the Rangers are trying to do just that.

The bidding is said by major-league officials to be “quite high” now, with two people pegging the dollar amount at about $160 million. And that’s with the deal not done yet. There seems an extreme likelhood now that Greinke will not only set a record for righthanded pitcher but for any pitcher, which is currently held by CC Sabathia, who signed for $161 million and seven years with the Yankees.

Some have suggested they could even see the Greinke deal reaching toward the $175-million mark.

This situation, however, could be severely impacted by the Rangers negotiations with Josh Hamilton, according to Danny Knobler, as they probably won’t sign both.

But one scenario they don’t see happening, according to sources, is a double free-agent signing of both Greinke and Hamilton.

And they certainly seem on pace to sign one or the other, according to Ken Rosenthal.

For his part, Jon Paul Morosi is of the belief that the Dodgers are the clear favorite, while Bill Shaikin adds that this drama may not be over by the time the Winter Meetings conclude.

—–

Connected to Greinke in a way, the Dodgers are apparently shopping Chris Capuano and Aaron Harang to whoever.

One exec says “Dodgers shopping Capuano and Harang around lobby. Greinke and Rhu, or Greinke and Sanchez or Dempster?”

#Dodgers becoming aggressive in shopping Harang and Capuano, source says. Could be a sign of confidence in landing Zack Greinke. @MLBONFOX

I doubt either of them would be hard to deal at any point in the off-season. Both are on short-term deals, the Dodgers could eat money if necessary, and the return demands probably won’t be significant.

—–

COMEDY BREAK

The Dodgers are running around shopping Juan Uribe!

One of the agendas the Dodgers are pushing aggressively in the lobby is to find a trade partner to take utility infielder Juan Uribe. Needless to say, the Dodgers are garnering little interest unless they’re willing to pay his entire contract. Uribe, who has batted .199 the past two seasons combined, is entering the final year of a three-year, $21 million contract.

What a disaster.

Asked an MLB official if #Dodgers might be able to interest #Yankees in Juan Uribe with A-Rod injured. The guy chuckled.

— Bill Shaikin (@BillShaikin) December 4, 2012

It’s become a punchline, as it should, really.

—–

Dee Gordon appears to be a popular target for teams, including the Mariners.

The Dodgers are fielding tons of inquiries on shortstop Dee Gordon, tweets Scott Miller of CBS Sports, though they’re not looking to deal him. The Mariners are among the teams hitting the Dodgers hard on Gordon, tweets Miller.

I’ve given my thoughts on Dee previously, though I’m not sure what the Mariners have that the Dodgers want.

No, it’s not Felix Hernandez. Stop.

I’m thinking more along the lines of Kyle Seager, Corey Seager‘s older brother. The Mariners have Alex Liddi and Vinnie Catricala.

—–

Perhaps the R.A. Dickey rumors have some legs after all?

Hearing Dodgers thinking big, have strong interest in Dickey even if they sign Grienke. But they don’t have good young OF to trade.

— John Harper (@NYDNHarper) December 4, 2012

Source says Mets could get speedy SS Dee Gordon and top pitching prospect Zach Lee from Dodgers for Dickey. But that doesn’t help OF.

— John Harper (@NYDNHarper) December 4, 2012

That would be … a lot for a rental.

Still not sure I buy the interest as legit either. Not yet, at least.

—–

In interest of filling out their bench, the Dodgers are apparently interested in trading for Skip Schumaker, according to Danny Knobler.

He plays second, left field, center field, and right field, so there’s versatility there, but he’s a terrible defender at second, a bad one in center, and just solid-average in the corners. Over the last three seasons, since he turned 30, he’s had an OPS+ of 88.

Not so thrilled, really.

—–

Oh, and Colletti shot down those rumors from yesterday about them seeking starters at SS/3B. But there’s no reason to think he’s being truthful either.

Shohei Otani, who once declared definitively that he was headed to America, is having second thoughts about that decision after meeting with the Nippon Ham Fighters, which was the thing I feared the most at the time of the announcement.

Shohei Otani, 18, who had vowed to sign in MLB, might now lean to staying in Japan, per Japanese media. #Dodgers interested, still fluid.

— Bill Shaikin (@BillShaikin) December 3, 2012

Source: #Dodgers would be “shocked” if Otani declares for MLB and does not sign with them — but skeptical that he will declare for MLB.

— Bill Shaikin (@BillShaikin) December 3, 2012

As far as specifics go, Sponichi Annex reports that Otani was probably offered the max salary and the number 11, which holds significance because it was worn by Yu Darvish.

Additionally, Sanspo quotes a source saying that the Nippon Ham Fighters are indeed no longer an impossible destination for Otani, and that he might even be leaning that way now.

Japanese pitching prospect Shohei Otani wants to decide this week whether to remain in Japan or come to the U.S. bit.ly/XhMuZb

— Dylan Hernandez (@dylanohernandez) December 3, 2012

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The rumors about the Dodgers actively shopping Dee Gordon only seem to be growing with time.

The Dodgers are shopping Dee Gordon in trades, according to Peter Gammons of the MLB Network. The 24-year-old Gordon figures to draw significant interest given the dearth of shortstops available via free agency.

As I said earlier, it’ll be interesting to see how exactly teams perceive him and what his value is.

Personally, I couldn’t accept him as the centerpiece in any significant deal, especially for somebody like, say, James Shields.

—–

The Rays have signed former Dodger first baseman James Loney to a one-year deal.

Free agent first baseman James Loney has agreed to a one-year, $2 million contract with the Tampa Bay Rays pending a physical exam, said a baseball source.

The deal will pay Loney an additional $1 million if he reaches specified performance bonuses, the source said.

I guess that’s actually not a terrible deal. I mean, expectations are basically zilch at that point.

As most everybody knows by now, the Dodgers are in on Zack Greinke and desperately want him to be a part of the club.

Dodgers executives met with Zack Greinke in Los Angeles yesterday, Yahoo’s Tim Brown reported last night.

The Dodgers view Greinke as critical to their pitching staff, Brown reports. Greinke is believed to have enjoyed pitching for the Angels during the second half of the 2012 season, which could increase his interest in staying in the Los Angeles area.

So that puts the Dodgers, Angels, Rangers, and Nationals in the picture for Greinke’s services.

But for all the hubbub about him deciding where to go, nothing much has materialized yet, but that might be about to change during the Winter Meetings.

zack greinkes agent casey close said he’ll know in 24-48 hrs if deal can be done in nashville. no talks serious … yet

— Jon Heyman (@JonHeymanCBS) December 3, 2012

—–

Remember that Brian Wilson news that had me fearing for my safety? Well, apparently the Dodgers aren’t interested.

Brian Wilson might want to pitch for the Dodgers, but it appears the interest isn’t mutual.

The colorful and magnificently bearded closer wasn’t tendered a contract for next season by the San Francisco Giants, making him a free agent. Wilson lives in Los Angeles in the off-season, and the Dodgers are among the teams with which he would like to sign, according to multiple reports.

Though the Dodgers won’t publicly comment on free agents, people familiar with team officials’ thinking say they aren’t looking to sign Wilson.

Disaster avoided.

—–

Perhaps the most interesting pre-Winter Meetings news though is that the Dodgers are shopping Dee Gordon.

The #Dodgers are letting teams know that shortstop Dee Gordon is available, who could be a nice fallback for teams who don’t sign Drew

— Bob Nightengale (@BNightengale) December 2, 2012

I say interesting because it gives insight into where the Dodgers see him next year (in AAA, probably) and because it creates discussion about how valuable he is to teams.

Before things get out of hand, a friendly reminder to Dodger fans that if you hated him while he was with the Dodgers in 2012, then you probably shouldn’t expect him to be the centerpiece of a package for an elite player.

Personally, I liked him as a prospect a TON less than most did for reasons I’ve explained before, but I recognize the athleticism and the potential he has, and there’s still upside even if he was rushed to the majors. Would I deal a valuable asset of mine for him though? Probably not.

—–

In what might be the most “we have so much money we don’t know what to do with it” rumor of the off-season, the Dodgers might be interested in A.J. Pierzynski.

The Dodgers could potentially make a play for free agent catcher A.J. Pierzynski, reports Jon Heyman of CBS Sports. L.A. general manager Ned Colletti almost signed Pierzynski as a free agent two years ago before the catcher re-signed with the White Sox, though the chances of Pierzynski signing with the Dodgers now is seen as “a remote possibility, at best” by some Dodgers people.

I discussed this on Twitter a bit, but I don’t quite understand this rumor. There’s a strong case to be made that A.J. Ellis is the better catcher to begin with, and he certainly was superior in 2012. Plus, Pierzynski’s worth was centered on his career-year offensively at age 35.

Besides that though, Ellis has a working knowledge of the team and staff, plus he posted a ~4 WAR season even after playing down the stretch with a knee injury that required surgery.

Grantland: Part 1 of Jonah Keri ranking the 50 best players in terms of trade value. No Dodgers here yet, but Carlos Santana finds a spot at #43.

The other two catcher rankings are the ones likely to elicit the most hate mail. In the first draft of this list, I had Santana considerably higher. Twenty-six-year-old switch-hitting catcher, career .806 OPS, signed for peanuts at four years, $18 million with an affordable $12 million option that would keep him in-house through 2017. By any objective standard, that would seem to make him a monumental bargain. Except the Lords of the Realm might not agree. There are the obvious concerns, such as Santana’s subpar defense, which (along with a semi-platoon designed to get him more at-bats) contributed to his playing 66 games at first base in 2011, with 21 at first and 27 at DH in 2012. Then there’s baseball’s continuing bias against low-average, high-walk hitters, even when we thought that was all behind us. The early buzz around Nick Swisher suggests he’ll be disappointed in his free-agent haul, while the cash-stuffed Rangers thought so little of Mike Napoli’s three-true-outcomes offense that they didn’t even make him a qualifying offer this offseason, meaning they think a one-year deal for a shade over $13 million is an overpay. If the Jered Weaver ranking constitutes ignoring the herd, consider the Santana ranking a case of acknowledging it.

Given how he’s perceived publicly, quite frankly I was surprised he made it onto the list at all.

Grantland: Part 2 of Jonah Keri ranking the 50 best players in terms of trade value. Matt Kemp checks in at #22.

Tulo and Kemp are franchise players…

OK, there are theoretically some scenarios that could see one of these guys traded:

C. The Dodgers decide they don’t feel like running $250 million payrolls anymore and stage an everything-must-go sale.

That’s about it, really.

Clayton Kershaw comes in at #13.

Practically speaking, there’s no way that Kershaw or Verlander will get traded, not even with both two years away from free agency. The Dodgers have shown they’ll throw ungodly amounts of money at slightly above-average players, let alone all-world pitchers, so Kershaw’s staying.

Yeah, at this point, it’s just a matter of whether or not he’ll get the richest contract for a pitcher in MLB history.

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FanGraphs: Speaking of money … Wendy Thurm takes a look at every television rights contract in the MLB.

I … uh … can see why some teams might be a bit upset.

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FanGraphs: As the power game has decreased, the running game has become more important. Seems to make complete sense, not be counter-intuitive.

The relationship is clear: the league took a year to catch up, but as run production goes down, stolen bases go up (For the record, the coefficient of determination between OPS and SBA/SBO is 0.78.).

It might seem counter-intuitive — the more run scoring drops, the more we hear about the sanctity of the out. Each of the 27 is hugely valuable, yes, but as run scoring drops each plate appearance is also more likely to produce an out.

The league on-base percentage has fallen from .336 in 2007 to .319 in 2012, and therefore the marginal out — the out risked by the stolen base — is less valuable. That’s why the “runCS” value in the Guts section — the cost in runs of a caught stealing — has lessened from minus-.433 in 2007 to minus-.398 in 2012.

Put another way, the stolen base becomes a less risky proposition because there is less to lose. The hitter at the plate is now less likely to get on base or hit a run-scoring extra base hit, and the chances of two hitters singling in an inning to knock a runner home drops in a compound fashion. Conversely, making the hitter’s job easier becomes more valuable now that the “wait for a three-run homer” strategy isn’t as viable.

The break-even rate on steals has fallen from 68 percent to 66 percent, down from 70 percent at the height of the steroids era in 2000. A player that stole 75 bases and was caught 25 times would have gained 4.2 runs of value in 2007. In 2012, that number rises to 5.1, and the player likely would have been running 10-20 percent more often; a routinely successful basestealer’s value in the running game therefore increases by some 30-40 percent.

It’s a great article, primarily because it shows that the break-even point for stealing success has fallen all the way down to 66%. Best to remember that during the season.

Wouldn’t it be nice if Dee Gordon could get on base enough to use his speed in this new environment?

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Yahoo! Sports: Jeff Passan has the story about how the MLB wants to ditch the posting system.

Major League Baseball and Nippon Professional Baseball are discussing significant changes to the posting system that brings players from Japan to the major leagues, sources told Yahoo! Sports.

While the talks haven’t moved beyond cursory stages, MLB is pushing NPB for a system in which teams no longer would bid blindly for the right to negotiate with a player but rather would participate in a traditional, open auction, the sources said.

Such a format likely would lessen the amount of money funneled toward the Japanese team that posts the player. In the cases of Yu Darvish and Daisuke Matsuzaka, their NPB teams received more than a $50 million windfall, a huge boon for a league with manifold financial struggles.

MLB and the players’ union agree they’d prefer to see a larger percentage of the money spent on high-end imports go to the player, the sources said.

Here … we … go.

Why the dramatics? Because this could be the start of a conflict between the leagues, as the NPB were the ones who wanted to change their rules in regards to their high school players going to the MLB in the aftermath of Shohei Otani‘s announcement. But now the MLB is requesting that they concede to them on posting fees. They are different issues, but they’re going to butt heads at some point in the near future it seems.

The posting fees are the far more significant deal though, IMO. Last I checked, and I admittedly don’t check regularly, I think only the Yomiuri Giants and a couple other teams in the NPB operate in the black. Everybody else is in the red for one reason or another, so these gigantic fees they get by selling off their elite players to the MLB helps the team — and the company that owns them — immensely. As such, I can’t see them going down without a fight.

Maybe there’s a happy medium here though, where a reasonable auction-type situation gets implemented with the NPB team getting to set a reserve price, and where the MLB concedes a bit of ground to the NPB on the signing of Japan’s amateur players so that Japanese fans get to watch their best young talent for at least half a decade or so.

Either way, it seems that something is going to change in regards to the relationship between the two leagues, and it’ll probably happen sooner rather than later.

The Arizona Fall League wrapped up this week with the Mesa Solar Sox — the team with eight Dodger prospects — finishing in last place with a 10-20 record. Now, it wasn’t all the Dodger prospects fault, but there were some, shall we say, not-so-great performances from some of the fellas.

I’m going to keep my eye on the Puerto Rican Winter League now, as Yasiel Puig made his debut there on Saturday night. It’ll be nice to see him get some playing time after being forced to miss the AFL with a staph infection.

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Arizona Fall League

Gorman Erickson – C
14 G, .268/.400/.341/.741, 3 2B, 9 BB

Erickson played better in two weeks worth of games in the AFL than he did at Chattanooga this season. But despite playing better, his power was still absent. While the big switch-hitting catcher looks like a power hitter, he’s anything but. His on-base percentage trumped his slugging percentage, which better suits a leadoff hitter. Still, a .400 OBP is nice.

Joc Pederson – OF
15 G, .096/.161/.154/.315, 1 HR, 6 RBI, 3 SB

Atrocious. There is no better word to describe Pederson’s AFL experience. While 15 games is hardly anything to be concerned about, an .096 average will get negative attention. Despite the poor performance, Pederson is still a top five prospect in the organization.

Rafael Ynoa – 2B/SS
27 G, .330/.374/.515/.889, 10 XBH, 7 SB

Ynoa was the Dodgers’ offensive standout in Mesa this season. He led the club in batting average, RBI (20), hits (32) and triples (four). He was second in stolen bases and slugging percentage (to George Springer, .600). Ynoa is eligible for the Rule 5 Draft, and after a strong AFL campaign, a team could take a chance on him. Then again, he is 25 and has utility player upside (at best). With the 40-man roster pretty full, I’d expect him to be unprotected.

Eric Eadington – LHP
12.1 IP, 5.11 ERA, 1.86 WHIP, 10.9 K/9

Eadington finished his AFL season on a strong note. Despite a high ERA and WHIP, his K/9 was impressive. His 15 strikeouts were tied for third-best on the club, and as a lefty who can touch 95 MPH on the gun, he potentially has a future in a big league pen.

Onelki Garcia – LHP
4 IP, 2.25 ERA, 1.50 WHIP, 4.5 K/9

Garcia finally made his AFL debut. He threw just four innings and has a total of four professional appearances under his belt. Still, I like his potential as a starter. He needs to establish a third pitch to remain a starter going forward though.

Red Patterson – RHP
11.2 IP. 5.40 ERA, 1.97 WHIP, 3.1 K/9

Patterson, who had a 9.1 K/9 with the Lookouts this season, managed just a 3.1 strikeout rate in the AFL. That might have been the most disappointing part of his season. The 25-year-old is a favorite of mine, but he doesn’t profile as much more than a middle reliever.

Chris Reed – LHP
10 IP, 7.20 ERA, 2.40 WHIP, 8.4 K/9

Reed pitched exclusively as a reliever in the AFL and he didn’t pitch that well. He was a late addition to replace Paco Rodriguez, so that has to be taken into consideration. I’ve never been as high on him as most, so maybe I shouldn’t be surprised by his performance.

Andres Santiago – RHP
19.2 IP, 6.86 ERA, 1.83 WHIP, 8.2 K/9

Santiago relieved Garcia in his final two outings, but made four starts for Mesa. He was up and down, but I like his potential. A full season at Double-A in 2013 will show whether he has a future as a starter or reliever.

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Dominican Winter League

Brian Cavazos-Galvez is 3-for-17 (.176). Looks like his Southern League numbers.

Tim Federowicz is 6-for-36 (.189) with a 1/17 BB/K rate. Ouch, again.

Dee Gordon is 28-for-88 (.318) with six triples in his 23 DWL games. He’s improved his walk rate since the last update (seven in 88 ABs).

Luis Vazquez has walked seven batters in 7.2 innings. He’s also struck out seven.

—–

Venezuelan Winter League

Alex Castellanos is 26-for-82 (.317) with four home runs and 18 RBI.

Luis Nunez is 26-for-111 (.234) with a home run, six doubles, and 12 runs scored.

Scott Van Slyke is 21-for-91 (.231) with seven home runs and 14 RBI.

—–

Mexican Winter League

J.T. Wise has not played since the last update.

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Puerto Rican Winter League

Freddie Cabrera has struck out three, walked two and given up seven hits and two runs in six innings.

Jarret Martin has appeared in two games so far. In 1 2/3 innings, he’s given up three runs and three walks. He’s also struck out three.

Yasiel Puig made his winter debut on Saturday night by going 2-for-5 with a home run, a stolen base, and two strikeouts. He went 0-for-3 in his second game.

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Dustin Nosler is the founder of the site Feelin’ Kinda Blue. He also co-hosts the weekly podcast Dugout Blues. Follow him on Twitter @FeelinKindaBlue or like his site on Facebook.

Hanley Ramirez

Hanley Ramirez was once a stud shortstop (based solely on his bat, of course), a young player a franchise could build around. Fast forward to 2012 and Han-Ram was just a struggling player acquired by the Dodgers in an effort to upgrade at a position of need and make a run at 2012.

Acquired for Nate Eovaldi and Scott McGough, Hanley arrived as a third baseman swinging the lumber to the tune of a paltry .246/.322/.428/.750 slash line with a .326 wOBA. For the defense-first position of shortstop, that’s acceptable, but for a player of Ramirez’s offensive stature and talent, that’s a far cry from a franchise building block. Additionally, even though he plays a defense-first position, fielding prowess is the last thing anyone would ever note Hanley for.

While he hit better with the Dodgers, primarily as a shortstop, it wasn’t by much, and that came with a worse BB%, a higher K%, and a 48-point bump in BABIP from his 2012 Marlins stint. While his BABIP with the Dodgers moved closer to his career mark, he’s suffered a drop in that area the last couple of years, as it was once routinely north of .325. Factoring in a loss of speed with age, I wouldn’t bet on that BABIP magically leaping back to its earlier resting place. Why? Because with age, attrition, his injury history, and his loss of speed, he won’t exactly be beating them out in droves.

As I touched upon previously, Hanley is a terror with the glove, and it really shows when you take a look at the advanced metrics. Taking on that task reveals a mind-boggling 14 runs that Hanley cost his 2012 employers while manning both short and third. The eye test? Judging by Twitter reactions, I doubt there’s anybody who would argue with the metrics. It’s important, because that strikingly bad showing left Hanley with a paltry ~2.4 WAR, a slight bounce back from his 2011 WAR of ~1.1, but nothing to write home about after a previous string of five seasons in which his WAR never fell below 4.0 and reached as high as 7.5.

The Dodgers best bet moving forward is to have Hanley play third and an actual shortstop who can field the position play short. How Ned Colletti would go about acquiring that shortstop is a different question though, so for now, the best options would appear to be either Dee Gordon or Luis Cruz.

Dee Gordon

Dee Gordon began the 2012 season as the starting shortstop, spent much of the middle portion of the year on the DL with a thumb injury, and ended the year as a pinch-runner. While his offensive limitations were obvious, and his defense was in serious need of improvement, it was hoped that he could scrape by and get on enough to use his fantastic speed to wreak havoc on opposing pitchers and catchers.

Unfortunately for Dee, the Dodgers, and OBP-lovers everywhere, 2012 was a lost season for the 24-year-old. Prior to his injury, Dee was a mess at the plate, with a slash line of just .229/.280/.282/.562 due to his low walk rate (6.1 %), severe lack of power (.053 ISO in 330 PA), and a propensity to hit the ball weakly on the ground (58.9 GB%). Dee returned from injury and headed straight for the minors, and upon his return after rosters expanded, garnered just three plate appearances.

And yet, Don Mattingly allowed Dee to lead-off for much of his 2012 season. A.J. Ellis silently weeps.

Anyway, Dee was just as abominable in the field, costing the Dodgers ~10.5 runs with his glove. His range aside, Dee must work on his hands and accuracy, because becoming a defensive asset at short is his path to being an MLB regular. For now though, his weak bat and weak glove worked to produce a WAR right around -1.0.

The sole area where Dee did contribute was, not surprisingly, the basepaths, where he was worth around ~3.0 runs and stole 32 bases. However, he swiped bags at just an average rate (~76%), so there’s plenty of room for Dee to grow in that respect, unless he wants to be Juan Pierre and steal a lot of bags while not being a great basestealer.

Dee’s role in 2013 is not yet clear. While he could remain in the bigs as a bench player, pinch-runner, or spot-starter, it seems more likely that he would begin the season as the starting shortstop in AAA so the Dodgers can work with him on his offensive, defensive, and basestealing shortcomings.

The upside is still there, but 2012 clearly showed there was a long way to go.

Luis Cruz

As Cruz started 23 games at short — mostly after Gordon’s injury but before Ramirez’s acquisition — he’ll get a brief mention here, although his full write-up can be found in the Season Review for third base.

Despite his overall solid year, Cruz hit a mediocre .235/.267/.388/.655 while captaining the infield, though almost half of his 20 hits in his 85 plate appearances went for extra-bases (two homers and seven doubles). In the field, he was solid, clocking in at ~0.7 runs saved.

If the Dodgers start Cruz at short, he helps the club most there because his defense far surpasses Hanley’s.

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Greg Zakwin is the founder of the site Plaschke Thy Sweater Is Argyle. Follow him on Twitter @ArgyledPlaschke.

Luis Cruz

I can safely say that I’m not the only one who had no idea who Luis Cruz was at the outset of the 2012 season. By the end of it, the once unknown 28-year-old journeyman had become a cult hero in Los Angeles. Heading into 2013, it appears he’ll not only hold down a roster spot, but be the Dodgers starting third baseman.

Now whether that’s something a team with a $200 million payroll should be doing, however, is another matter entirely. Others seem to be having difficulty wrapping their head around it as well, probably because heading into 2012, Cruz’s major-league career consisted of 169 plate appearances spread over three seasons and 56 games. He was atrocious at the dish in that limited sample size, and had been a career minor-leaguer, save for those small cups of coffee.

Following injuries to Dee Gordon (thumb) and Juan Uribe (playing baseball like he plays life), Cruz was called up in early-July and spent time at third, short, and second. Most of that time — 51 games and 48 starts — was at the hot corner, where he shined with the glove, posting a 6.6 UZR and a +8 on the DRS scale. He was very good with the leather overall, saving ~5.5 runs in total in 2012. His play at third was especially impressive considering he had never before manned the position in the bigs.

That last sentence is an important one with Cruz, because fans are quick to make judgments when they first see a player perform in The Show, and Cruz has become a savor in the eyes of many fans. If injuries don’t derail plans and we assume that he continues to flash the leather at third in 2013, Cruz can be an adequate starter for the Dodgers based on his defensive showing in 2012 alone. However, if Cruz’s defense proves to be a mirage, then his offense probably won’t cut it because it’s a strong candidate to regress. Yes, that’s still better than Uribe, who we’ll get to momentarily, but simply being better than Emo Juan isn’t enough to be a productive major-leaguer.

The main problems are that Cruz doesn’t walk (3% in 2012), has limited power (.134 ISO), and is just an average baserunner. Combine those factors with an inflated BABIP (.320), and he’s looking at a less impressive 2013 triple-slash. Oh, and he swings at just about everything, including a ridiculous 41.1% of pitches outside of the strike zone, compared with a league average of just under 31%. That’s not a great indicator unless you’re Vladimir Guerrero talent-wise, and Cruz is obviously not (who is?).

Even for a guy who posted a ~2.3 WAR in 2012, given the rational concerns with him repeating that performance, a starting gig in 2013 is still a godsend. If the only options are starting Cruz or Uribe, then sure, Cruz is the easy choice, but his career minor-league line in 12 seasons and 1200+ plate appearances of .261/.296/.394/.690 speaks volumes to me, and it’s a far greater indicator of what to expect going forward than 296 plate appearances this past season.

Cruz deservedly has a spot on the team, but it probably should be as a bench player, not a starter. And given where he came from prior to the Dodgers, that’s not a diss, but rather a compliment that he’s earned his keep.

Juan Uribe

Juan Uribe managed to make it through an entire season — in which he hit an unseemly .191/.258/.284/.542 with a .245 wOBA — without being cut. He spent some time on the DL, but more of it riding the pine, going weeks down the stretch without seeing the field.

Spending any significant amount of time on him is a nauseating notion, so let’s just quickly wrap this up and note that Uribe is heading into the final year of the atrocious deal Ned Colletti handed out to him prior to the 2011 campaign. Yes, he still swings at everything, is averse to drawing a walk, and will probably still find work somewhere because he can handle himself in the field, saving ~3.7 runs in 2012.

Whatever.

Adam Kennedy

Adam Kennedy also found himself at third last season, starting 25 games and appearing in 39. He’s pretty much the opposite of Uribe, as he’s bad with the leather (about a run in debt to the Dodgers overall) but mediocre with the lumber (.262/.345/.357/.702 with a .310 wOBA overall). And by mediocre, I mean bad, but better than anyone actually expected him to be.

Jerry Hairston Jr.

One last player of note to find himself at third last season was Jerry Hairston Jr., who started 23 games and appeared in 32 at third.

He swung the bat well when playing there, to the tune of a .315/.344/.435/.779 line in just under 100 plate appearances. Perhaps most impressively though, he got off to a ridiculously hot start there defensively, which helped him rate well with the glove (2.6 UZR and a DRS of +2) even though he did struggle later in 2012.

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Greg Zakwin is the founder of the site Plaschke Thy Sweater Is Argyle. Follow him on Twitter @ArgyledPlaschke.

Chris Jackson of the Albuquerque Examiner tweeted to me and said that Dodgers left-hander Onelki Garcia hasn’t appeared yet in the Arizona Fall League because of an oblique injury, but he was unable to confirm it. If true, I wouldn’t expect to see Garcia play at all in the AFL, though he could still pitch in another winter league.

—–

Arizona Fall League

Gorman Erickson – C
11 G, .276/.432/.345/.777, 2 2B, 8 BB

Erickson is having a decent AFL campaign in his second year in the league. The power he displayed in his 2011 campaign (.204 ISO) is all but gone, as hi ISO at Chattanooga was .095 and it’s just .069 in the AFL.

Joc Pederson – OF
9 G, .094/.171/.094/.265, 3 RBI, 2 SB

Pederson had been out of action since Oct. 23, but he returned to the Solar Sox‘s lineup yesterday and promptly went 0-for-3. His AFL season has been atrocious, but he still got an invite to the Rising Stars game, which was held on Saturday.

Someone mentioned that Pederson could be fatigued and I buy it. He played 110 games this season, then played in the World Baseball Classic qualifying tournament with Israel before heading to Arizona. I don’t think the jump in competition had this much negative impact on Pederson.

Rafael Ynoa – 2B
18 G, .338/.365/.529/.893, 7 XBH, 7 SB

Ynoa has been a stud for Mesa so far. He leads the club in hitting and is tied with Cubs prospect Matt Szczur in stolen bases. He’s also popped two home runs in the league — two more than he did in 421 Southern League at-bats. Ah, the rarefied air of Arizona.

Eric Eadington – LHP
8.2 IP, 7.27 ERA, 2.19 WHIP, 11.4 K/9

Eadington was doing fairly well a couple weeks ago, but he ran into some trouble, as his high ERA and WHIP show. The positive: he’s striking guys out at an elite rate.

Red Patterson – RHP
8.0 IP. 7.88 ERA, 2.25 WHIP, 3.4 K/9

Patterson started off the AFL great but has been awful in his last five innings. The positive: not much. But it’s just fall ball, so I wouldn’t be overly concerned about him at this point.

Chris Reed – LHP
6.1 IP, 9.95 ERA, 2.68 WHIP, 8.5 K/9

Reed’s ERA is finally in the triple-digits, so that’s progress, I suppose. He’s also improved his strikeout rate. Not too hard to improve on zero, though.

Andres Santiago – RHP
15.0 IP, 3.60 ERA, 1.47 WHIP, 8.4 K/9

Finally, a good pitcher! Santiago has held his own in the AFL and, despite the higher-than-desired WHIP, he hasn’t allowed a home run in his 15 innings. I’m eager to see what he does in 2013.

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Dominican Winter League

Brian Cavazos-Galvez is 3-for-17 (.176). Looks like his Southern League numbers.

Tim Federowicz is 2-for-20 (.100) with 11 strikeouts. Ouch.

Dee Gordon is 14-for-43 (.326) with three triples in his first 10 DWL games. He’s only drawn two walks in 43 at-bats, though.

Luis Vazquez has walked four batters in three innings.

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Venezuelan Winter League

Alex Castellanos is 9-for-31 (.290) with two home runs and eight RBI.

Luis Nunez is 18-for-72 (.250) with four doubles and nine runs scored.

C.J. Retherford is 22-for-73 (.301) with three home runs and five doubles.

Scott Van Slyke is 16-for-62 (.258) with seven home runs and 13 RBI.

—–

Mexican Winter League

J.T. Wise is 4-for-17 (.235) with a home run.

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Dustin Nosler is the founder of the site Feelin’ Kinda Blue. He also co-hosts the weekly podcast Dugout Blues. Follow him on Twitter @FeelinKindaBlue or like his site on Facebook.

The Dodgers have announced that all members of the 2012 coaching staff will return in 2013 with the lone exception being hitting coach Dave Hansen, whom the club has parted ways with after he spent just over a season in the position. While it’s true that this squad was fairly terrible offensively for most of the season, I can’t and won’t pin the blame on Hansen. Primarily because I don’t believe a hitting coach has that much of an effect on the hitting performance of a team as a whole.

Teams that can hit end up doing so because they have talented offensive players, which the club lacked for much of the year. As they later showed, the early offensive outburst was a mirage, and the reinforcements arrived too late to make an adequate judgement on how a hitting coach may have affected their performance.

Factor in the multiple injuries suffered by Matt Kemp, the late arrivals of upgrades Hanley Ramirez and Adrian Gonzalez, and the light-hitting/atrocious players Ned Colletti chose to have on the team to begin with – Dee Gordon, James Loney, Juan Rivera, to name a few – and the poor offensive showing was really to be expected.

Hansen is an easy scapegoat for the team’s struggles, but the concern should be fielding a team of talented offensive players who walk, hit for power, and run the bases effectively, and hopefully those players manage to stay healthy over the course of the season. The blame for the struggles of the Dodgers goes a lot deeper than the hitting coach, and it’s always rather pathetic when they get the ax for the failings of others.

As everybody knew going into the game, it was literally a must-win contest for the Dodgers, as the magic number of the Cardinals was one for the final playoff spot in the National League.

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Buster Posey started the scoring in the top of second inning with a homer off Chris Capuano.

A Luis Cruz RBI groundout knotted the game at one, but Joaquin Arias broke the tie with a homer in the top of the third.

Yes, seriously. Joaquin Arias.

Then Marco Scutaro extended their lead in the top of fifth inning with a two-RBI double.

A.J. Ellis, the miracle man, responded with a two-run homer to right-center in the bottom of the seventh to draw the Dodgers within one.

Two batters later, the turning point in the game happened, as Mark Ellis was gunned down by about eleventy billion feet at third base on a ball hit into the gap.

I mean … what the fuck?

Immediately after that, Shane Victorino tripled, and while I always say that baseball results don’t exist in a vacuum … wow it was tough to watch.

—–

In the ninth, as if to torture us further, Andre Ethier singled to lead off the inning against a lefty reliever, which is a miracle in itself.

So bring in Dee Gordon to pinch run and either let him try to steal second or just let A.J. hit, right? Nope, try to bunt with the guy who got the game to within one in the first place! Don Mattingly everybody! His 2012 season coup de grace.

I mock the move because even assuming a successful bunt, there’s a 5.3% drop in the chance the Dodgers win, and that comes without context. With context? A.J. is a quality overall hitter with .375 OBP skills and you’re going to bunt with him for either Elian Herrera or Bobby Abreu? Does this even make sense to traditional managers? Good lord.

Results-wise, sure enough, A.J. got buntfucked. Bunt attempts put him in a two-strike hole and he eventually struck out. As if to taunt us, Dee then stole second successfully, but Abreu flew out to left.

That set up M. Ellis for an attempt at redemption.

What else can you say?

MLB.com: So there was a little blowup in the clubhouse after Tuesday night’s loss here. We heard that was you.

Colletti: I had a passionate exchange in the coach’s room.

MLB.com: What was the message?

Colletti: Were you invited?

MLB.com: No, but I wish I was.

Colletti: It was just a bit of an evaluation.

Two hours later, T.J. Simers of the Los Angeles Times released similar information through an article of his own.

The other night after the Dodgers lost to the Padres, while the media met with Manager Don Mattingly, screaming could be heard from the nearby coaches’ dressing room.

“Passionate” screaming? General Manager Ned Colletti says with a smirk when asked if it was he.

“Yes, I had a passionate discussion with the staff, and then I had another one with a [softer] voice with Donnie. I think every once in a while you just need to recalibrate.”

Say what you want about Colletti (and I have), but he’s never given the impression of being a screaming madman type. Quite the opposite, really. So for this to happen and for these reports to go public, something really must have set him off on that particular day after the game.

While us fans probably shouldn’t overreact to it and jump to the conclusion that there’s some type of breakdown in the front office and/or clubhouse, I do feel it’s okay to wonder what exactly triggered this.

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In the top of the ninth in that game, a sequence occurred that ultimately led to the Dodgers losing by a run despite trailing by a one score with nobody out and a runner on second. When the game got to that point, Dee Gordon pinch-ran for A.J. Ellis on second, and everybody knows that Dee has enough speed to make that base represent scoring position on almost any hit. Despite that move, Mattingly opted to pinch-hit with Nick Punto and bunt Dee over to third. After Mark Ellis walked to put runners on first and third, Andre Ethier and Matt Kemp went down to end the game.

Mattingly’s decision to bunt Gordon to third increased the chances of the Dodgers scoring in that inning, but decreased their chances of winning by 3-5%. So was that the reason for the blowup? Maybe, but I doubt it. Mattingly makes moves like that all the time, so if it was going to be an issue, one would think this would have come up way sooner than September. Honestly, it’s considered more of a sin by us saber-oriented fans and bloggers than to the front office.

As such, perhaps it was just the culmination of a frustrating season? The team is having general struggles, and that was the day they fell 4.5 games back in the race for the final playoff spot. Odds are that it was probably related to those difficulties, just because I don’t think the GM goes down to rant to the field staff based on single game decisions with any type of regularity.

Then again, maybe it had something to do with how Andre Ethier was used. In the top of the eighth inning, Ethier was allowed to hit against a lefty. Not a big deal, right? Happens all the time. I didn’t think much of it either, but a recent story on the Dodgers official site basically gets the team to admit that the people in charge are having internal discussions about sitting him against lefties.

Another season is almost in the books and the Dodgers are once again mystified by outfielder Andre Ethier’s inability to hit left-handed pitching anywhere near as successfully as he does against right-handers.

“It’s something we seriously have to look at as far as how we approach it. I think he can hit left-handers. The numbers say maybe he can’t and we have to go a different route. Me believing a guy can do something and him doing it are two different things.”

Nothing concrete there to say it was the reason, but you have to read between the lines a little. The issue has obviously been an internal discussion for a while and, perhaps when combined with the status of the team in the standings, it just finally boiled over. In this case, given Mattingly’s consistent stance that Ethier can indeed hit lefties, Colletti might have even be taking the sabermetric position on this one.

Ned Colletti? Statistics over guts? What is this madness?! Look at what Don Mattingly has driven our precious GM to.

—–

Naturally, this is all speculation, but given the justifiably raised expectations of the team and their inability to perform despite the numerous acquisitions, one would think journalists would have made more of an effort to shed light on the situation than to just allow Colletti to get off with dodging the question.

That’s especially true given that the front office and ownership has spent all September telling fans that there’s always next year, yet their actions in handling players and making transactions have told a very different tale.

Seems to me that this would warrant further investigation than to be a throw-in question during a media session. Given that people covering the Dodgers documented and opined about every single little thing Matt Kemp did wrong in 2010 (to give an example), one would think the GM and coaches blowing up at each other as the team collapses in September would be worthy of an investigation.

I know I’d like to hear more about what transpired.