Credit: The LFP

The Zack Greinke saga is the story of the Winter Meetings, not only because he’s the top free agent out there, but also because he’s holding up the deals of other free agents, as they’re all waiting on him.

Whatever he decides, it figures to be at least borderline historical, as Jon Heyman notes.

Strong belief by people close to situation is greinke can beat cc sabathia $161M record deal if desires. #dodgers #rangers

But who’s in the lead now? Jayson Stark says the talk revolves around the Rangers…

The big buzz this morning at the winter meetings is: Watch out for Texas on Zack Greinke.

…and Joel Sherman gives a potential reason why Greinke might be leaning that way.

Told Greinke’s wife is former Dall #Cowboys cheerleader and could influence desire get back to Tex. score1 for #Rangers

The Nationals are out of the sweepstakes thanks to their Dan Haren acquisition, and the Angels are assumed to be out of it as well due to price concerns, according to Danny Knobler.

With Greinke bidding heading to $160 million and perhaps beyond, one Angels person said: “That’s going to blow us out of the water.”

Additionally, they just added Joe Blanton to their rotation.

Ken Gurnick reports that Greinke’s personal fingerprints appear to be all over the negotiations.

The speculation is that Greinke, and not Close, is orchestrating the leisurely pace of negotiations, which has log-jammed the free-agent market for pitchers. The 29-year-old Greinke could wind up with a contract bigger than CC Sabathia’s record for a pitcher of seven years and $161 million.

Reading between the lines a little, this could mean that the money is close enough where it boils down to personal matters, which could lead him to stray away from the Dodgers and the most money. It could also be the reason Josh Hamilton to the Mariners talks have picked up, as his agent might sense the Rangers will be out of the market for him.

Hopefully not, but the reports yesterday certainly weren’t as optimistic for the team as the day before.

—–

Those Dee Gordon rumors from yesterday? Well apparently they have some legs, and Jon Paul Morosi/Ken Rosenthal report that the Indians are in.

I looked at the Mariners roster yesterday to find a potential fit in a trade, but for the Indians I don’t see a clear-cut fit for the Dodgers current roster. I’m hoping it doesn’t involve Ubaldo Jimenez.

—–

As for Hyun Jin Ryu, yesterday was just a continuation of the day before.

Nor would Colletti say if he felt he was closer to a deal for Korean free-agent pitcher Ryu Hyun-jin.

“I just feel closer to Sunday,” Colletti said, because at 2 p.m. PT Sunday the Dodgers must either have a deal with Ryu or he returns to Korea.

Oddly enough, I think Jim Bowden‘s thoughts most accurately reflects reality.

Dodgers not worried about negotiations w Ryu… they know Boras style & will wait until Sunday Deadline to bear down with him & get it done

— JIM BOWDEN (@JimBowdenESPNxm) December 6, 2012

Though I would be lying if I said I didn’t cringe when Scott Boras started comparing him and his impending contract to Daisuke Matsuzaka.

“We have standards that all of us agree the guy is a No. 3 starter in the Major Leagues,” Boras said Wednesday. “And past practices, negotiations that we’ve done for [Daisuke] Matsuzaka, at that time Matsuzaka got paid [$52 million, six years] like he was a No. 3 pitcher in the big leagues. We think very highly of Ryu.

Why?

1) Expecting that contract is ridiculous to me.

2) Why would he ever want to associate an Asian pitcher’s potential career with that of Daisuke Matsuzaka?

—–

The Dodgers do need a lefty reliever in the pen for next year, and with Randy Choate now off the board, Mike Petriello brings up Matt Thornton‘s name.

With LH RP dropping off the board, #Dodgers will probably need to get one via trade. One rumored possibility: Matt Thornton of Chicago.

Would have loved this idea three or four years ago, but he’s now on a three-year negative trend, is going to be 36, and his stuff diminishing is becoming an annual event.

Still a better option than signing Choate for three years, but not exactly a guy you want to give up meaningful assets to acquire.

The Dodgers are still in the market for a starting pitcher, according to Ken Rosenthal of Fox Sports.

Source: #Dodgers not done. Looking for another starting pitcher. Nothing close.

Buster Olney at ESPN hears similar chatter, so there’s definitely something going on, which I suppose shouldn’t surprise Dodger fans anymore.

Since the Dodgers are actively looking for rotation help, it seems like a good time to take a look at what their potential trade options are at the moment.

—–

Placed On Waivers

Aaron Cook – He was placed on waivers almost two weeks ago, but no reports on whether he cleared or not. Making $1.5 million in 2012 and a free agent after the season, he has a 4.76 ERA/5.06 FIP/4.45 xFIP/4.32 SIERA. Needless to say, he’s not going to be an improvement over anybody in the rotation. Pointless to acquire.

Edinson Volquez – He was placed on waivers a week ago, but no reports on whether he cleared or not. Volquez is making $2.2 million in 2012 and has a year of team control left. He has a 4.10 ERA/4.12 FIP/4.21 xFIP/4.38 SIERA. While Volquez could help the team, he profiles as yet another #3/#4 type in a rotation full of them. However, there’s upside with him because he does have electric stuff. Not sure he’s worth the prospects it would take to get him, but wouldn’t mind having him in the right deal.

Jon Lester – Placed on waivers five days ago, but whether he cleared or not is unknown. Lester is making $7.6 million in 2012, is set to make $11.6 million in 2013, and has a $13 million club option in 2014 with a $250k buyout. He has a 4.98 ERA/3.99 FIP/3.61 xFIP/3.72 SIERA and that could make him a solid addition to the rotation. However, if he was going to be dealt, especially to the Dodgers, I don’t see why they wouldn’t have done so with the Adrian Gonzalez deal. I’d love to have him, but I doubt it happens because it wouldn’t make much sense.

Kevin Millwood – He was placed on waivers a couple days ago and there’s no word on whether he’s been claimed yet. Millwood is making $1 million in 2012 and will be a free agent after the season. He has a 4.28 ERA/3.76 FIP/4.26 xFIP/4.40 SIERA, so I put him in the same category as Cook and a notch below Volquez due to a lack of upside. Meh.

Jason Vargas – He was placed on waivers a couple days ago and there’s no word on whether he’s been claimed yet. Vargas makes $4.9 million this year and has another year of team control before hitting free agency. He has a 3.75 ERA/4.72 FIP/4.37 xFIP/4.44 SIERA, so it shouldn’t surprise you that he’s in there with Cook and Millwood. Not worth the effort.

Daisuke Matsuzaka – Placed on waivers yesterday, there’s been no word on whether he’s been claimed yet. He makes $10 million this year and next year before hitting free agency. In six starts, he has posted a 5.10 ERA/4.19 FIP/4.37 xFIP/4.07 SIERA. While this article says he’s worth a waiver claim, four years of mediocrity and astronomical injury risk lead me to a different conclusion.

Shaun Marcum – He was put on waivers yesterday and nobody knows if he has been claimed yet. Marcum is making $7.7 million in 2012 and will be a free agent after the season. He’s currently posting a 3.19 ERA/3.74 FIP/4.00 xFIP/3.74 SIERA season, which makes him one of the few available that would be worth pursuing hard, as he could be as effective as a #2 in this rotation. Would depend on the prospects involved, but I like the idea.

Cleared Waivers

Roy Oswalt – He cleared waivers three weeks ago and is free to be dealt. Oswalt is making $5 million this year and has put up a 5.94 ERA/4.07 FIP/3.49 xFIP/3.39 SIERA line. Those are quality peripherals, but he refused to pitch out of the bullpen for the Rangers earlier this year, and the Dodgers have a backlog of average starters, so it could be a potential headache. With that said, there’s potential upside here, as his numbers indicate that he still has a quality arm.

Ineligible

Cliff Lee – For all those asking, it’s close to impossible. The Phillies pulled him back when the Dodgers claimed him earlier, so even though they could put him on irrevocable waivers, they would get nothing in return for him, which makes it extremely unlikely.

Rumors

Mark Buehrle – He hasn’t been placed on waivers yet to anybody’s knowledge, but he was named as a prime candidate for the Dodgers by Buster Olney. He’s making $10 million in 2012, $11 million in 2013, $18 million in 2014, and $19 million in 2015. Buehrle is currently putting up a 3.62 ERA/4.13 FIP/4.22 xFIP/4.37 SIERA, which is solid enough, but certainly not a clear improvement over anybody already in the rotation. Plus, he’s already 33 and he starts making the most money as he enters the steep decline phase of the aging curve. Meh.

—–

If the team isn’t going to be acquiring Marcum, Lester, or, to a lesser extent, Volquez, then I don’t see what the point is because nobody else listed would provide a meaningful upgrade over the five or six starters the Dodgers already have.

Perhaps the team has yet another surprise in store, but given the available options, this may be as good as it’s going to get for the Dodgers until 2013.

As you probably already know by now, bidding on Yu Darvish ended just recently after the star right-hander was posted by the Nippon Ham Fighters a few days ago. I mention this because earlier today on Twitter I made a few statements about Yu Darvish and Asian players that generated some interesting discussion and I wanted to clarify my point.

All this started after reading article after article that lazily compared Yu Darvish with Daisuke Matsuzaka and Kei Igawa. I simply questioned whether any other player was subject to these generalizations based on his nationality, ethnicity, and race or whether any other players are lumped in with other busts and generalized to say that they all possess similar qualities because of their personal backgrounds.

—–

Through the course of the discussion, certain people managed to transform my desire to not lazily lump all Asian players into the same pool as being equal to saying that people should not criticize Asian players, which simply isn’t the case.

It’s the way people are criticizing Asian players that has me cringing.

I recognize that there are a ton of question marks that go into signing players from the region, question marks that simply don’t apply to American players. However, there are question marks for just about every other player on the market as well, it’s just that those players are analyzed as individuals and by their potential value, whereas it seems to be almost a requirement to compare prospective Asian players with current or past Asian players as if they are all the same.

It’s probably nothing to other people, but it’s honestly just awkward for me to read.

—–

Jon Paul Morosi – Fox Sports – 12/12

Robert Whiting, an author and expert on Japanese baseball, said he believes the Rangers and Yankees will submit posting bids on Darvish. But Whiting added: “If he signs with Texas, playing in that small park will not help him … I am afraid if Darvish goes to a hitter’s park, his game may suffer. Chan Ho Park was an ace at Dodger Stadium, not so good in Texas.”

I respect Robert Whiting for the work he has done on Japanese baseball, and I have enjoyed the books he has written, but this is just absurd.

What does Chan Ho Park having success with the Dodgers but not the Rangers have anything to do with Darvish? They are completely different and unrelated circumstances. The only thing relating them at all is the fact that they are both Asian, which is the only reason Park is even mentioned.

—

The park effects factor will have an affect how Darvish performs, but it will do so like it would for any other pitcher. That’s why we have statistics that normalize for things like league, park, and competition.

Relevant analysis would revolve around how Darvish’s stuff fits in different parks. What is his fly ball percentage? How many bats does he miss? Will the switch lead to a change in distribution? Which parks do those skills fit in?

But no, none of that is addressed in any article on Darvish that I see in the mainstream media, it’s all simply glossed over in favor of lazily throwing together anecdotal connection after anecdotal connection between pitchers who both happen to be Asian.

How is this acceptable? Ugh.

Tom Verducci – Sports Illustrated – 11/15

Said Rangers assistant GM Thad Levine, “The anecdotal assessment suggests starting pitchers have a two-year window of success followed by a rapid decline, followed thereafter by disappearance. Even a lot of the relievers have had success quickly, reaching a hot peak followed by a rapid decline.”

“Anecdotal”

Says it all.

When the Yankees signed Kei Igawa after the 2006 season, for instance, they relied on very few first-hand evaluations. Now the Yankees invest more time and resources in making sure they get multiple looks at NPB players.

Exactly. The Yankees didn’t do their due diligence on Igawa because they made a reactionary bid in response to losing out on Matsuzaka and since Darvish is Asian like they are, that’s Darvish’s fault.

Wait, what?

David Waldstein – The New York Times – 12/13

After the uneven results of Matsuzaka, Igawa and others, the bidding for Darvish is expected to be more restrained, perhaps $30 million to $50 million, and recently some people in baseball have projected that figure below $30 million.

Yes, we get it.

See above.

Jeff Passan – Yahoo! Sports – 12/8

Oh, and there’s the whole matter of pitching, the one question that will take years to answer. While the sample size remains tiny, the Japanese ace in the major leagues has had a short window of success. Hideo Nomo: two years. Matsuzaka: two years. Perhaps Hiroki Kuroda is breaking that trend, what with four consecutive solid seasons, but the skepticism remains.

See: Verducci, Tom

Tom Verducci – Sports Illustrated – 11/15

“You have some great examples of players who came here and starred,” said Dodgers GM Ned Colletti, “and some who came here and were average at best and some who were below average. Like it is with any prospect, it’s always something you have to look at on a case-by-case basis. One thing we do know is that the grind of our schedule is different, therefore there are different dynamics for a position player and for a pitcher.”

“Looking at players on a case-by-case basis and treating each Asian player that comes over as an individual? No, no, no, that just won’t do. It doesn’t fit my narrative.”

You know your argument is completely fucked when Ned Colletti is the voice of reason, right?

—–

Perhaps the saddest part is that the sample above is just taken from the top results on Google and what I found on MLB Trade Rumors. Basically, stuff like this is in almost every article about Darvish, so it wasn’t hard to find these examples at all.

So what’s the point?

The point is that there should absolutely be questions asked about Yu Darvish, but those questions should be asked about Yu Darvish the pitcher, not about Yu Darvish the Japanese pitcher or Yu Darvish the Asian pitcher, and certainly not about how Daisuke Matsuzaka and Kei Igawa relate to him.

Intellectually lazy leaps in logic always bother me, but I felt the need to point this out because it seems nobody ever has a problem when people do it in regards to Asian players (like this). Let’s be honest, similar comparisons would never be made so overtly and so shamelessly if we were talking about Black or Latino players because people would lose their jobs over it.

—–

Originally, I was planning on writing an article about how Japanese players who come over through the posting system are generally overvalued because it’s akin to getting a prospect except they aren’t team controlled. Of course, the difference between my planned analysis and what is currently happening on the journalism landscape is that I would have actually done my homework and looked at each case as individual results instead of lumping them all into one category and making wide ranging generalizations.

By far the most common comparison is between Yu Darvish and Daisuke Matsuzaka, which is appropriate for the point I’m trying to make because even a cursory comparison of the two would reveal totally different pitchers, personalities, and backgrounds.

Ample reason to see them and analyze them as individuals.

But hey, why do research when you can just be lazy, right?

I was about to take a nap today when I saw that MLB Trade Rumors had picked Jason Kubel to sign with the Dodgers. I made my way to FanGraphs to see if I could make a post basically laughing at Ned Colletti repeating his past mistakes of bringing in a veteran outfielder to block a talented youngster.

On my way there though, I saw two articles on FanGraphs about Yu Darvish and decided to click-through to see what they thought, because I love to get their take on things.

Well in an article called “Darvish Is Not Daisuke” by Eno Sarris, I was amused at the first justification for why they aren’t comparable.

The first difference might seem irrelevant at first: Darvish is not only Japanese — he’s also half Iranian. The reason this is relevant is not that Iranian people are better at baseball. The point is that Darvish would be the tallest pitcher to make the jump from Nippon Professional Baseball to Major League Baseball. At 6-foot-5, he’s five inches taller than Matsuzaka. The average Iranian male is 5-foot-8.6 and the average Japanese male is 5-foot-7.8 (American males are 5-foot-9.2 on average), so it might have taken a little genetic help to produce a Japanese pitcher this tall. Darvish is also 220 pounds, but could have the frame to add more. He added 20 pounds this year.

Regardless of how it was intended, the passage absolutely reads as if it were meant to say, “Good thing Yu Darvish is mixed so he can be tall and throw hard unlike the rest of the Japanese pitchers because LOL AZNS ARE SHORT LOL“.

Honestly, I wasn’t offended by this or anything, but I just found it hilarious how nonchalantly ethnic/racial genetic differences were thrown into the mix as if it were legitimate and relevant analysis.

I generally don’t use this site to complain about stereotypes or racism, because I honestly can’t be fucked enough to care, but I do enjoy calling it out when I see it. Hell, if for no other reason than because it entertains me to no end.

Overall, I’m used to this type of shit as it happens so commonly with Asians and Asian Americans because nobody honestly gives a shit about offending us, but it did give me pause and ended up turning my face into this:

Regardless, it’s quite the interesting direction for FanGraphs to go, and I anxiously await future articles analyzing Asian baseball players. I would like to start:

“Daisuke Matsuzaka’s inability to control the strike zone doomed him in America, as his slanted eyes prevented him from seeing the strike zone with the same clarity as pitchers of other races. I’m not saying it matters FOR SURE, but it’s unfortunate that he lost the genetic lottery by being born Japanese, or he might have been born with bigger eyes and have better control. Genetically speaking. Genetics.”

Feel free to contribute examples of your own, as I’m sure there are many ways to analyze players using ethnic and racial genetic differences.

—–

All jokes aside, what does the passage even statistically tell you?

The average Iranian male is 0.8 inches taller than the average Japanese male (assuming that’s true), so Yu Darvish being mixed Iranian-Japanese probably affected his chances of being a 6’5″ outlier enough to make it a lead point on why he’s not similar to Daisuke Matsuzaka?

Commenters on the article are predictably defending the passage and are saying that the critics are missing the point, but isn’t the article itself hilariously missing the point when the passage serves absolutely no purpose since it provides no evidence that has any statistical value whatsoever?

Like I understand if it was proven that Iranians have a statistically significant amount of people who are taller than 6’4″ when compared with the Japanese, but I struggle to see a point in mentioning an average difference of less than an inch.

—

All I’m saying is that if the article had stated Hiroki Kuroda was more likely than Rubby De La Rosa to stay out of trouble off the field and succeed in pressure situations because Japanese score higher on IQ tests than Dominicans, I doubt it gets pushed.

—

Kei Igawa Portrait