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	<title>Chad Moriyama &#187; Colorado Rockies</title>
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	<description>Dodgers, Sabermetrics, Scouting</description>
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		<title>Making Moves: Harang dealt for Hernandez, Gregg released, 3 released from farm</title>
		<link>http://www.chadmoriyama.com/2013/04/making-moves-harang-dealt-for-hernandez-gregg-released-3-released-from-farm/</link>
		<comments>http://www.chadmoriyama.com/2013/04/making-moves-harang-dealt-for-hernandez-gregg-released-3-released-from-farm/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 09 Apr 2013 10:53:33 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Greg Zakwin</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Features]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Making Moves]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[A.J. Ellis]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Aaron Harang]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Chad Billingsley]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Chris Capuano]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Cole St. Clair]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Colorado Rockies]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Joe Becker]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Kevin Gregg]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Los Angeles Dodgers]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[P.J. Phillips]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Ramon Hernandez]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Spring Training]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Tim Federowicz]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.chadmoriyama.com/?p=14761</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Aaron Harang was traded to the Rockies in exchange for catcher Ramon Hernandez and cash. Chad has more on the deal here. It was just a matter of time before the Dodgers traded one of the Harang/Chris Capuano to help clear a crowded pen and open up a spot on the 25-man roster for the ...]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><img src="http://www.chadmoriyama.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/10/AaronHarangPitch.jpg" alt="AaronHarangPitch" width="352" height="234" class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-12259" /></p>
<p><strong>Aaron Harang</strong> was <a href="https://twitter.com/Dodgers/status/320623635620564993" target="_blank">traded to the <strong>Rockies</strong></a> in exchange for catcher <strong>Ramon Hernandez</strong> and cash. Chad has <a href="http://www.chadmoriyama.com/2013/04/dodgers-deal-aaron-harang-for-ramon-hernandez-add-depth-pay-another-to-play-elsewhere/" target="_blank">more on the deal here</a>.</p>
<p>It was just a matter of time before the <strong>Dodgers</strong> traded one of the Harang/<strong>Chris Capuano</strong> to help clear a crowded pen and open up a spot on the 25-man roster for the soon-to-return <strong>Chad Billingsley</strong>.</p>
<p>Hernandez will serve as the backup to <strong>A.J. Ellis</strong> in all likelihood, which would push <strong>Tim Federowicz</strong> back to AAA, but I&#8217;d prefer to have the younger player with upside.</p>
<p>&#8212;&#8211;</p>
<p>The Dodgers <a href="https://twitter.com/kengurnick/status/319591741541990400" target="_blank">released non-roster invitee</a> <strong>Kevin Gregg</strong>.</p>
<blockquote><p>A former closer who couldn&#8217;t find a big league job as a free agent over the winter, Gregg signed a Minor League contract with the Dodgers that did not have an opt-out clause. Earlier last week, Gregg said he felt there was a mutual &#8220;understanding&#8221; that the club would release him to find another job if there wasn&#8217;t room on the Major League roster.</p>
<p>With three extra starters (Aaron Harang, Chris Capuano and Ted Lilly) still candidates for trade, the Dodgers were hoping to have Gregg pitch regularly at Triple-A Albuquerque to be ready when they needed him.</p></blockquote>
<p>Gregg had been in limbo since not making the team out of <strong>Spring Training</strong>, as he had been assigned to the minors but did not want to pitch in the minors.</p>
<p>After his solid spring, he now has an opportunity to catch on with a team, and thankfully that team will not be the Dodgers.</p>
<p>&#8212;&#8211;</p>
<p>The team also released <strong>Cole St. Clair</strong>, <strong>P.J. Phillips</strong>, and <strong>Joe Becker</strong>, <a href="http://www.baseballamerica.com/minors/minor-league-transactions-march-28-april-4/" target="_blank">per <strong>Matt Eddy</strong></a> of <strong>Baseball America</strong>.</p>
<p>The only noteworthy name in that troika is St. Clair, who had some heavy buzz around him following <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=sa389903&amp;position=P" target="_blank">three excellent campaigns from 2008-2010</a> when he was whiffing over 11 per nine and had a K/BB ratio that was hovering around 4/1.</p>
<p>=====</p>
<p><em><strong>Greg Zakwin</strong> is the founder of the site <a href="http://plaschkethysweaterisargyle.blogspot.com/" target="_blank"><strong>Plaschke Thy Sweater Is Argyle</strong></a>. Follow him on Twitter <a href="http://www.twitter.com/ArgyledPlaschke" target="_blank"><strong>@ArgyledPlaschke</strong></a>.</em></p>
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		<title>Dodgers deal Aaron Harang for Ramon Hernandez, add depth, pay another to play elsewhere</title>
		<link>http://www.chadmoriyama.com/2013/04/dodgers-deal-aaron-harang-for-ramon-hernandez-add-depth-pay-another-to-play-elsewhere/</link>
		<comments>http://www.chadmoriyama.com/2013/04/dodgers-deal-aaron-harang-for-ramon-hernandez-add-depth-pay-another-to-play-elsewhere/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sun, 07 Apr 2013 12:56:30 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Chad Moriyama</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Analysis]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Transactions]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[A.J. Ellis]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Aaron Harang]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Chad Billingsley]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Colorado Rockies]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Los Angeles Dodgers]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Ned Colletti]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Paco Rodriguez]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Ramon Hernandez]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Tim Federowicz]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.chadmoriyama.com/?p=14859</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Yesterday, the Dodgers dealt Aaron Harang to the Rockies for catcher Ramon Hernandez and effectively cleared room in their bullpen for the return of Chad Billingsley on Wednesday. The Dodgers on Saturday made official their trade of pitcher Aaron Harang and cash to the Rockies for catcher Ramon Hernandez. Oddly enough though, the Rockies designated ...]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><img src="http://www.chadmoriyama.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/04/RamonHernandez.jpg" alt="RamonHernandez" width="391" height="213" class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-14860" /></p>
<p>Yesterday, <a href="http://www.truebluela.com/2013/4/6/4191246/aaron-harang-trade-ramon-hernandez-dodgers-rockies/in/3955441" target="_blank">the <strong>Dodgers</strong> dealt <strong>Aaron Harang</strong> to the <strong>Rockies</strong> for catcher <strong>Ramon Hernandez</strong></a> and effectively cleared room in their bullpen for the return of <strong>Chad Billingsley</strong> on Wednesday.</p>
<blockquote><p>The Dodgers on Saturday made official their trade of pitcher Aaron Harang and cash to the Rockies for catcher Ramon Hernandez.</p></blockquote>
<p>Oddly enough though, the Rockies designated Harang for assignment immediately, so he&#8217;ll likely be elsewhere soon.</p>
<p>As for Hernandez himself, he&#8217;s certainly a more proven option than <strong>Tim Federowicz</strong>, though better is arguable. He&#8217;s about a league-average hitter (96 OPS+) for his career, but he&#8217;s 37 now and at age 36 he hit .217/.247/.353/.605 with the Rockies. He used to be a solid defender, but that has fallen off considerably with age and is probably a downgrade from T-Fed in that regard. Essentially, he has to hit to be useful, and the Dodgers are banking that he can regain his form, because he could be useful in relieving <strong>A.J. Ellis</strong> and providing much needed pop off the bench if he&#8217;s right.</p>
<p>More than anything though, this was about dumping Harang to clear room in the bullpen so that the return of Billingsley wouldn&#8217;t result in something like <strong>Paco Rodriguez</strong> having to be sent down. So from that perspective, even if Hernandez tanks, they still have T-Fed in the minors and it doesn&#8217;t affect the team much.</p>
<p>Money-wise, as you would imagine, the Dodgers are eating salary.</p>
<blockquote><p>Counting Sunday, Mar. 31, six days of the 183-day season have lapsed. That means the Dodgers are on the hook for $3,095,082 of Hernandez&#8217;s salary, and the Rockies responsible for $6,770,492 for Harang, plus the $2 million buyout in 2014, though Jon Heyman of CBS Sports reported the Dodgers would send $4.25 million to Colorado.</p>
<p>So, instead of having $9 million guaranteed to Harang, the Dodgers will instead pay approximately $7,574,590 ($3,095,082 for Hernandez, $229,508 for Harang, and $4.25 million to Colorado). Subtract the major league salary that would have been paid to Tim Federowicz and the Dodgers save approximately $2 million and upgraded their catching depth.</p></blockquote>
<p>So the team saves ~$2 million but will pay yet another player to perform elsewhere. It&#8217;s not a significant deal in terms of impact, but I get the feeling that when all is said and done about the pre-Richie Rich <strong>Ned Colletti</strong> era, boy are a lot of the contracts that were handed out going to look ridiculous in retrospect.</p>
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		<title>2012 MLB Playoff Chase: Dodgers still trying to become the least best NL playoff team</title>
		<link>http://www.chadmoriyama.com/2012/09/2012-mlb-playoffs-chase-dodgers-still-trying-to-become-the-least-best-nl-playoff-team/</link>
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		<pubDate>Fri, 28 Sep 2012 23:47:31 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Chad Moriyama</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Game Thoughts]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[SOSEFD]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[2012 MLB Playoffs]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[AccuScore]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Adam Wainwright]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Baseball Prospectus]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Cincinnati Reds]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Clayton Kershaw]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Colorado Rockies]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Cool Standings]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Edwin Jackson]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Jeff Francis]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Los Angeles Dodgers]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[MLB Playoffs]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[San Francisco Giants]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[St. Louis Cardinals]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Washington Nationals]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.chadmoriyama.com/?p=11359</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[The Dodgers are currently three games back of the Cardinals for the National League&#8216;s final playoff spot. Los Angeles has a 4.5% chance of making the playoffs according to Cool Standings and a 5.6% chance according to Baseball Prospectus. Doesn&#8217;t take a math whiz to figure that 1-in-20 aren&#8217;t good odds, but gaining a game ...]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><img src="http://www.chadmoriyama.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/09/DodgersRockies-09282012-575x233.jpg" alt="" title="DodgersRockies-09282012" width="575" height="233" class="aligncenter size-large wp-image-11378" /></p>
<p>The <strong>Dodgers</strong> are currently three games back of the <strong>Cardinals</strong> for the <strong>National League</strong>&#8216;s final playoff spot. Los Angeles has a 4.5% chance of making the playoffs according to <strong>Cool Standings</strong> and a 5.6% chance according to <strong>Baseball Prospectus</strong>. Doesn&#8217;t take a math whiz to figure that 1-in-20 aren&#8217;t good odds, but gaining a game and a half over the past two days actually revived the on-life-support playoff hopes (1-2%) of the team.</p>
<p>Given that the Cardinals play the <strong>Nationals</strong> and the <strong>Reds</strong> to finish the season, two of the best teams in baseball, and the Dodgers have the <strong>Rockies</strong> and the <strong>Giants</strong>, anything does seem possible. It becomes absolutely imperative though that the Dodgers sweep the Rockies before going into their rivalry series, where seemingly anything could (and does) happen.</p>
<p>&#8212;&#8211;</p>
<p>For today&#8217;s game, the Dodgers send <strong>Clayton Kershaw</strong> to the mound against <strong>Jeff Francis</strong>, so it&#8217;s no surprise that they&#8217;re -290 betting favorites to win (74.4%), and <strong>AccuScore</strong> has the Dodgers winning at a 63% clip. The Cardinals sent <strong>Adam Wainwright</strong> to the hill against <strong>Edwin Jackson</strong> and are -135 betting favorites to win (57.4%), and AccuScore has their chances of prevailing at 56%.</p>
<p>While I still don&#8217;t believe the Dodgers should be risking the health of Kershaw and others for what amounts to a long shot, if nothing else the team has managed to make the end of this season exciting, for better or worse.</p>
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		<title>Dodgers Trade Targets: Taking A Look At Aramis, Hart, Dempster, Cuddyer, Hamels</title>
		<link>http://www.chadmoriyama.com/2012/07/dodgers-trade-targets-taking-a-look-at-aramis-hart-dempster-cuddyer-hamels/</link>
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		<pubDate>Thu, 05 Jul 2012 14:07:15 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Chad Moriyama</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Analysis]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Rumors]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Adam Kennedy]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Aramis Ramirez]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Bobby Abreu]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Carlos Lee]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Chicago Cubs]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Cole Hamels]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Colorado Rockies]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Corey Hart]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Jerry Hairston Jr.]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Juan Rivera]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Juan Uribe]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Los Angeles Dodgers]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Michael Cuddyer]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Milwaukee Brewers]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Minnesota Twins]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Nate Eovaldi]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Philadelphia Phillies]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Ryan Dempster]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Ted Lilly]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.chadmoriyama.com/?p=8042</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[So with the Dodgers basically looking at everybody, and with the Carlos Lee trade falling through, the team has now revealed five teams that their scouts are watching intently as potential trading partners. Dodgers scouts have an increased presence with Milwaukee, as well as continued coverage of the Chicago Cubs, Colorado, Philadelphia and Minnesota. The ...]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><img src="http://www.chadmoriyama.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/07/AramisRamirezBrewers-575x382.jpg" alt="" title="AramisRamirezBrewers" width="575" height="382" class="aligncenter size-large wp-image-8045" /></p>
<p>So with the <strong>Dodgers</strong> <a href="http://www.chadmoriyama.com/2012/06/dodgers-desperate-for-help-essentially-interested-in-everybody-potential-carlos-lee-trade/" target="_blank">basically looking at everybody</a>, and with the <strong>Carlos Lee</strong> <a href="http://www.chadmoriyama.com/2012/07/carlos-lee-trade-dead-due-to-his-lack-of-interest-why-not-pursue-derrek-lee/" target="_blank">trade falling through</a>, the team has now <a href="http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20120704&#038;content_id=34462302&#038;notebook_id=34471380" target="_blank">revealed</a> five teams that their scouts are watching intently as potential trading partners.</p>
<blockquote><p>Dodgers scouts have an increased presence with Milwaukee, as well as continued coverage of the Chicago Cubs, Colorado, Philadelphia and Minnesota.</p>
<p>The players believed in their sights include Brewers sluggers Aramis Ramirez and Corey Hart; Cubs starting pitcher Ryan Dempster; Rockies outfielder Michael Cuddyer; and Phillies starting pitcher Cole Hamels. At the top of the club&#8217;s wish list are a productive corner infielder and a starting pitcher.</p></blockquote>
<p>I thought the five players were intriguing options, so I decided to take a detailed look at all of them.</p>
<p>=====</p>
<p><u><strong>Aramis Ramirez &#8211; 3B &#8211; Brewers</strong></u></p>
<p>Dodgers third basemen on the year have combined to go .245/.319/.340/.659, and that&#8217;s being kind because utility man <strong>Jerry Hairston Jr.</strong> has a .326/.380/.500/.880 line in 50 plate appearances there. Hairston operates best as a super utility guy though, so Ramirez would essentially be a <strong>Juan Uribe</strong> (.200/.259/.280/.539)/<strong>Adam Kennedy</strong> (.228/.319/.289/.608)replacement.</p>
<p>Ramirez has hit .263/.341/.471/.812 so far in 2012 and he projects to improve on that a bit at .274/.341/.484/.824. Uribe and Kennedy are about average defensively, while Ramirez is well below average, bordering on poor. There&#8217;s a five to ten run gap on defense that Ramirez will have to make up, and that he does. For the rest of 2012, Ramirez projects to be about 20-25 runs better offensively than the combination of men he&#8217;s replacing. If you buy into his splits, which for his career have him ~60 OPS points higher in the second half, the disparity could be even more significant. Also, despite being 34, his peripherals show little sign of decline.</p>
<p>Of course, there&#8217;s the problem of the contract that the team would be taking on. Making $6 million in 2012, $10 million in 2013, and $16 million in 2014 with a 2015 mutual option/$4 million buyout, the Dodgers would hypothetically be on the hook for about $32 million for 2.5 years of service.</p>
<p>A bit painful but perhaps not overly terrible for a 3-4 WAR player, even one due to regress because of age. Ramirez would basically have to be worth around 7 or 8 WAR to make it work, and he figures to be in the neighborhood of that figure. Furthermore, he plays third, and unlike the corner outfield positions, third basemen are a much rarer asset. This is particularly true for the Dodgers, who have a complete dearth of internal options. Now factor in that the <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/compensation/cots/?page_id=177" target="_blank">free agent market</a> might come down to <strong>Maicier Izturis</strong>, and Ramirez isn&#8217;t such a terrible shot to take.</p>
<p>For the Brewers part, the Dodgers will probably have to wait until the last minute. Milwaukee sits a mere seven games back of first right now, which may seem like a lot, but with two wild card spots this year and the <strong>Cardinals</strong> late charge in 2011 fresh in everybody&#8217;s memory, they&#8217;ll probably be taking this decision down to the wire. One winning streak and they may not end up selling off at all.</p>
<p>&#8212;&#8211;</p>
<p><u><strong>Corey Hart &#8211; RF &#8211; Brewers</strong></u></p>
<p>Dodgers left fielders have hit .242/.300/.333/.632 on the year, which is amazingly bad. Hart would be a boon for the team, as he&#8217;s currently at .251/.313/.505/.818 and projects to hit .264/.327/.484/.811 the rest of the way. An average fielder, he would improve that area of the outfield as well, as they are basically stuck with <strong>Juan Rivera</strong> and <strong>Bobby Abreu</strong> as their primary options.</p>
<p>Hart is signed through 2013 and makes $9 million in 2012 and $10 million in 2013. His contract is more than reasonable for a 3-4 WAR player, and he&#8217;s a potential addition who could make upwards of a 25-35 run difference over the rest of the year (that&#8217;s being conservative, really).</p>
<p>Like Ramirez though, he may never become available, as the Brewers may never end up selling.</p>
<p>&#8212;&#8211;</p>
<p><u><strong>Ryan Dempster &#8211; RHP &#8211; Cubs</strong></u></p>
<p><a href="http://www.chadmoriyama.com/2012/06/dodgers-have-six-quality-starters-but-ryan-dempster-interest-understandable/" target="_blank">I already addressed his potential addition here</a>, but his acquisition makes even more sense now with <strong>Ted Lilly</strong> being transferred to the 60-day DL, health unknown, as Dempster would be a huge improvement over <strong>Nate Eovaldi</strong>.</p>
<p>The Cubs are 14 games back and are shopping everybody, so he&#8217;ll be on the market.</p>
<p>&#8212;&#8211;</p>
<p><u><strong>Cole Hamels &#8211; LHP &#8211; Phillies</strong></u></p>
<p>I like Hamels for the same reason I like Dempster, except he&#8217;s even better than Dempster and has a longer track record of excellence without the immediate injury history. He&#8217;s a consistent 3.5-4.5 WAR pitcher and a solid #1/#2 to slot behind <strong>Clayton Kershaw</strong> if the Dodgers can make the playoffs.</p>
<p>A 2.79 ERA/3.05 FIP/3.02 xFIP/3.03 SIERA in 2011 and a 3.08 ERA/3.28 FIP/3.24 xFIP/3.25 SIERA in 2012 basically says it all.</p>
<p>Hamels makes $15 million in 2012 and is slated to be a free agent, one that will probably be pursued by the Dodgers either way. The Phillies are 12 games back and should be sellers.</p>
<p>&#8212;&#8211;</p>
<p><u><strong>Michael Cuddyer &#8211; RF &#8211; Rockies</strong></u></p>
<p>Like Hart, he would be replacing a terrible concoction of outfielders that the Dodgers have trotted out in left field. Like Hart, he&#8217;s a solid hitter. Putting up a .284/.346/.459/.805 line in 2011, he has dropped a bit to .260/.313/.480/.793 in 2012, but projects to finish at a .281/.338/.485/.823 clip. Unlike Hart, he&#8217;s a rather poor defender, and I do have concerns that <strong>Coors Field</strong> is playing insane again, yet he&#8217;s still down a bit. That concern is especially true because he&#8217;s 33.</p>
<p>As far as his contract goes, he makes $10.5 million in 2012, 2013, and 2014, with performance bonuses that could up it by $1.5 million in 2014. A reasonable deal for a 2.5-3.5 WAR player, but I think Hart is both the better overall player and the one with less risk.</p>
<p>The Rockies are 14 games back at the moment and surely would be willing to sell, even if it&#8217;s within the division.</p>
<p>=====</p>
<p>Overall, all of the rumored players mentioned represent significant improvements to the team. Unlike Carlos Lee, they are likely to be difference makers for the Dodgers, thus making it understandable that they surrender assets for them. Whether the trades are workable or worth it obviously still depends on what the Dodgers give up and the finances involved, but if these are the types of players the team is pursuing, they definitely seem headed down the right road.</p>
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