Baseball fans love to talk about clutch plays and clutch players, and Dodgers fans are no exception, but like with a pitcher’s best and worst pitches, there tends to be a lack of evidence presented. As such, I decided to find some basis for clutch plays and clutch players, courtesy of the WPA and Clutch statistics.

WPA

Most sabermetric statistics are context neutral — they do not consider the situation of a particular event or how some plays are more crucial to a win than others. While wOBA rates all home runs as equal, we know intuitively that a home run in the third inning of a blowout is less important to that win than a home run in the bottom of the ninth inning of a close game. Win Probability Added (WPA) captures this difference by measuring how individual players affect their team’s win expectancy on a per-play basis.

Clutch

In the words of David Appelman, this calculation measures, “…how much better or worse a player does in high leverage situations than he would have done in a context neutral environment.” It also compares a player against himself, so a player who hits .300 in high leverage situations when he’s an overall .300 hitter is not considered clutch.

So that’s the foundation for this post, and since that’s now been established, let’s get on with it, shall we?

As always, visuals have been provided because, let’s be honest, everything is better with visuals.

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I feel like it’s necessary to point out that none of this is predictive of the future or telling of the past. It’s a post about stuff that happened in 2012. That’s all.

In other words, please don’t link back to this while saying, “LOOK! THIS DUDE IS SO CLUTCH, BRO!” No.

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Top Five Clutchiest McClutchington Hits Of 2012

1. Adrian Gonzalez – +69.9%

Whenever you increase your team’s chances of winning by 69.9% with one swing of the bat, something must have gone right.

Well, it did.

It was the bottom of the ninth with one out and runners on first and second. The Dodgers trailed the Diamondbacks by a score of 4-3.

Down to his last strike, A-Gon comes up gigantic with a walk-off double down the right field line off J.J. Putz.

2. Ivan De Jesus – 67.3%

THANK YOU J.J. PUTZ XOXOXO HUGS AND KISSES

Trailing 7-6 with runners on first and second and down to their last out, feeble hitting Ivan De Jesus came up and whacked a double over Chris Young‘s head in center to take the lead.

Much love to J.J. Putz.

3. Scott Van Slyke – 61.1%

Early in 2012, the season was full of “yeah, this team is winning the World Series if this kinda shit happens” moments, and this was certainly one of them.

Scott Van Slyke hit a three-run bomb with runners on first and second to give the Dodgers a 6-5 lead after they trailed 5-3 with two outs in the bottom of the seventh inning.

Even though it was only the seventh, it felt like a gigantic moment, right? WPA agrees.

4. Elian Herrera – 51.6%

So it’s the top of the eighth with two outs, the Dodgers trail 1-0 and Cliff Lee is just absolutely taking a dump down their throats, and, I mean, there’s runners on first and second but Elian Herrera or whoever is up, so it’s inning ove … HOLY SHIT! YES!!!

Shoutout to Juan Pierre.

5. Luis Cruz – 50.7%

Bottom of the sixth, two outs, runners on first and second (this is a theme), Dodgers trail the Cardinals 4-3, but 2012 phenom Luis Cruz is up and he absolutely bombs one into the bullpen to put the Dodgers up by two.

Bonus points for pimping it.

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Overall, the fact that there are five different players contributing here, and that four of the five are still basically unknowns to casual fans, speaks to how remarkable it was that the 2012 Dodgers even stayed in the playoff hunt throughout all the injuries and what not.

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Top Five Clutchiest Dodgers Of 2012 – Field Player Division

1. Dee Gordon – 1.05
2. Elian Herrera – 0.93
3. Luis Cruz – 0.84
4. Juan Uribe – 0.77
5. Adrian Gonzalez – 0.72

The Dodgers are still in the market for a starting pitcher, according to Ken Rosenthal of Fox Sports.

Source: #Dodgers not done. Looking for another starting pitcher. Nothing close.

Buster Olney at ESPN hears similar chatter, so there’s definitely something going on, which I suppose shouldn’t surprise Dodger fans anymore.

Since the Dodgers are actively looking for rotation help, it seems like a good time to take a look at what their potential trade options are at the moment.

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Placed On Waivers

Aaron Cook – He was placed on waivers almost two weeks ago, but no reports on whether he cleared or not. Making $1.5 million in 2012 and a free agent after the season, he has a 4.76 ERA/5.06 FIP/4.45 xFIP/4.32 SIERA. Needless to say, he’s not going to be an improvement over anybody in the rotation. Pointless to acquire.

Edinson Volquez – He was placed on waivers a week ago, but no reports on whether he cleared or not. Volquez is making $2.2 million in 2012 and has a year of team control left. He has a 4.10 ERA/4.12 FIP/4.21 xFIP/4.38 SIERA. While Volquez could help the team, he profiles as yet another #3/#4 type in a rotation full of them. However, there’s upside with him because he does have electric stuff. Not sure he’s worth the prospects it would take to get him, but wouldn’t mind having him in the right deal.

Jon Lester – Placed on waivers five days ago, but whether he cleared or not is unknown. Lester is making $7.6 million in 2012, is set to make $11.6 million in 2013, and has a $13 million club option in 2014 with a $250k buyout. He has a 4.98 ERA/3.99 FIP/3.61 xFIP/3.72 SIERA and that could make him a solid addition to the rotation. However, if he was going to be dealt, especially to the Dodgers, I don’t see why they wouldn’t have done so with the Adrian Gonzalez deal. I’d love to have him, but I doubt it happens because it wouldn’t make much sense.

Kevin Millwood – He was placed on waivers a couple days ago and there’s no word on whether he’s been claimed yet. Millwood is making $1 million in 2012 and will be a free agent after the season. He has a 4.28 ERA/3.76 FIP/4.26 xFIP/4.40 SIERA, so I put him in the same category as Cook and a notch below Volquez due to a lack of upside. Meh.

Jason Vargas – He was placed on waivers a couple days ago and there’s no word on whether he’s been claimed yet. Vargas makes $4.9 million this year and has another year of team control before hitting free agency. He has a 3.75 ERA/4.72 FIP/4.37 xFIP/4.44 SIERA, so it shouldn’t surprise you that he’s in there with Cook and Millwood. Not worth the effort.

Daisuke Matsuzaka – Placed on waivers yesterday, there’s been no word on whether he’s been claimed yet. He makes $10 million this year and next year before hitting free agency. In six starts, he has posted a 5.10 ERA/4.19 FIP/4.37 xFIP/4.07 SIERA. While this article says he’s worth a waiver claim, four years of mediocrity and astronomical injury risk lead me to a different conclusion.

Shaun Marcum – He was put on waivers yesterday and nobody knows if he has been claimed yet. Marcum is making $7.7 million in 2012 and will be a free agent after the season. He’s currently posting a 3.19 ERA/3.74 FIP/4.00 xFIP/3.74 SIERA season, which makes him one of the few available that would be worth pursuing hard, as he could be as effective as a #2 in this rotation. Would depend on the prospects involved, but I like the idea.

Cleared Waivers

Roy Oswalt – He cleared waivers three weeks ago and is free to be dealt. Oswalt is making $5 million this year and has put up a 5.94 ERA/4.07 FIP/3.49 xFIP/3.39 SIERA line. Those are quality peripherals, but he refused to pitch out of the bullpen for the Rangers earlier this year, and the Dodgers have a backlog of average starters, so it could be a potential headache. With that said, there’s potential upside here, as his numbers indicate that he still has a quality arm.

Ineligible

Cliff Lee – For all those asking, it’s close to impossible. The Phillies pulled him back when the Dodgers claimed him earlier, so even though they could put him on irrevocable waivers, they would get nothing in return for him, which makes it extremely unlikely.

Rumors

Mark Buehrle – He hasn’t been placed on waivers yet to anybody’s knowledge, but he was named as a prime candidate for the Dodgers by Buster Olney. He’s making $10 million in 2012, $11 million in 2013, $18 million in 2014, and $19 million in 2015. Buehrle is currently putting up a 3.62 ERA/4.13 FIP/4.22 xFIP/4.37 SIERA, which is solid enough, but certainly not a clear improvement over anybody already in the rotation. Plus, he’s already 33 and he starts making the most money as he enters the steep decline phase of the aging curve. Meh.

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If the team isn’t going to be acquiring Marcum, Lester, or, to a lesser extent, Volquez, then I don’t see what the point is because nobody else listed would provide a meaningful upgrade over the five or six starters the Dodgers already have.

Perhaps the team has yet another surprise in store, but given the available options, this may be as good as it’s going to get for the Dodgers until 2013.

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As I mentioned before, you could pick between Clayton Kershaw, Roy Halladay, and Cliff Lee for the award and not come up with a wrong answer. However, it’s certainly awesome to see him get his due.

It shouldn’t be any surprise that the 2011 NL Cy Young Award race comes down to three horses: Clayton Kershaw, Roy Halladay, and Cliff Lee. All three pitchers have had outstanding years, but one of them has to win it.

As with my analysis of the 2011 NL MVP Award race, I’ll be doing my best to stay away from bias in this argument, so I’ll start off with the objective numbers.

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IP & ERA

Should be common knowledge what these are. I assume you wouldn’t be reading this site if you didn’t know. Not adjusted. Taken from anywhere you want.

ERA-

League average pitcher is 100 and the lower the better. Park adjusted. Taken from FanGraphs.

FIP

Scales factors that the pitcher has active control over to ERA. Not adjusted. Taken from FanGraphs.

FIP-

League average pitcher is 100 and the lower the better. Park adjusted. Taken from FanGraphs.

SIERA

Similar to FIP except it also uses batted ball data to scale all factors to ERA. Park adjusted. Taken from FanGraphs.

fWAR

Uses FIP to figure out the pitcher’s runs saved above replacement and converts it into wins. Park adjusted. Taken from FanGraphs.

rWAR

Uses ERA to figure out the pitcher’s runs saved above replacement and coverts it into wins. Park adjusted. Taken from Baseball Reference.

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Again, I created my own version of WAR by combining fWAR and rWAR, giving a 50% split in importance to both actual results and actual performance. Going forward, I will be using this same WAR calculation methodology until it’s shown it can be improved upon.

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As far as my own calculation of WAR, Roy Halladay is at 7.8, Clayton Kershaw is at 6.9, and Cliff Lee is at 6.8. Halladay has a clear lead over the other two, but if you look at the comparison of the three pitchers and think they’re all basically similar, I don’t blame you; it’s because they are.

In a nutshell, that’s the point I wanted to make about this race. I don’t think there’s necessarily a wrong answer, as long it’s one of the three mentioned candidates. There’s not enough gap between any of them for me to conclusively say that one pitcher deserves it above the rest, particularly because of the accuracy issues of pitching metrics when compared to batting metrics.

Personally, if I had a vote, I couldn’t get away from Halladay, simply because he basically did what Kershaw did except in a more hitter friendly environment*, and he also out-pitched his teammate (Lee) while operating under the same circumstances.

That said, I’ll be hoping for Kershaw to win, and if he does, I don’t think anybody can have a serious problem with it.

I just hope Dodgers fans remember that if Kershaw doesn’t win, the same rules apply.

*As Dodgers fans, we can’t have it both ways. You can’t mock Citizen’s Bank Park as a bandbox (it’s really not, but I see it said a lot), but now that it might cost Clayton Kershaw the Cy Young Award, all of a sudden pretend that they all pitch in neutral environments. If you’re gonna be a homer about it, that’s fine, but just admit it.